Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 8 Bets and NBA Betting Scandal Reaction - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bett. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise
guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman and I am
joined as always by my co host, my companion Mike
and padre My BFF professional Better Signment Hunter.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
Hello, So I'm in Chad. What's going on?

Speaker 1 (00:22):
This morning? The FBI, the US Attorney from the Eastern
District announced a sweeping set of indictments against many people,
including members of three families of the Mafia, LaCOSA and Nostra,

(00:43):
including Portland Trailblazers head coach Chauncey Billups, including Damon Jones,
former Cleveland Cavalier and assistant coach Terry Rozier. Two separate indictments.
I will set the stage here to indictment thirty four
different people involved. One indictment is for illegal poker rooms

(01:08):
and swindling unsuspecting players in those poker rooms. That's what
Chauncey Billups is involved in and Damon Jones is involved in.
The US attorney in the press conference referred to Chauncey
Billups and Damon Jones as the face cards of the operation,

(01:30):
meaning they were the famous people who brought in the rich,
unsuspecting fish into the games who were then taken. And
then another indictment in which they're overlapping people is the
one in which Tera Rozier has been indicted for the

(01:52):
sports betting sharing of information that also is tied to
Johntay Porter, who famously was banned. This is involving player
props and Terry Razier player props. Crazy story, definitely. You know,
the stakes keep getting higher on the gambling scandals since legalization,

(02:13):
and last a couple of years ago there was the
Otani interpreter scandal. Now this is front page news. This
has been blown up all morning since the arrest at
six o'clock in the morning, both in Portland and in
Orlando where Terry Razier was after the Heat game last night.
He did not play last night, and now there was

(02:34):
a press conference that was all over the news. Looks
it's a weird thing. We do a show on betting.
We have a good time. We talk about betting on
the games, We talk about where the opportunities are. That's
the primary focus of what we do. But you and
I are also very much in this world. We know
a lot about the poker rooms. We know a lot

(02:56):
about what's happening in the sports betting space beyond what
we talk about on the show. I'm in the middle
of working on a book about this world of sports
betting that will come out, you know in the next say,
twelve to twenty four months. You obviously ad are professional better.
There's going to be a lot of conversation about legalization

(03:18):
being the cause and these scandals being the effect. I
got a lot of thoughts on that, but let's break
down the news for a second. You're seeing this, what
are your thoughts?

Speaker 3 (03:33):
Sadly, never shocked, just because, like you said, I am
in this world and we've talked all the time. I'm
someone that I love poker, I love Texas hold them,
and I play a lot of house games in the offseason.
I do a lot of casino games, a lot of tournaments.
But there's always gonna be house games, right. But you
hear of these games with dirty tables and fixed games,

(03:54):
and you might get away with it on one or
two millionaires. Not all millionaires are dumb that look into it, right.
We've all met guys who you're like, Okay, he was
born into it, or he found a right niche.

Speaker 2 (04:08):
This guy's not that smart.

Speaker 3 (04:09):
Some guys are brilliant and they are incredibly smart with people,
and they can see things that normal people can't see.

Speaker 2 (04:17):
That's how they made all their money.

Speaker 3 (04:19):
All it takes is one of them to get into
that game and they can tell right away something's off,
something's fixed. Then they go again and if the same
thing happens again, they're gonna notice it again. So it's
really about the names, right, It's huge names we all know.
I mean Chauncey Billups. He's one of my favorite players ever.
Like he played in Detroit Nuggets and then he came
to Philly and I love them like I love Chauncey Bills.

Speaker 2 (04:41):
I think I have a Chauncey Billups Sixers Jersey. No joke.

Speaker 3 (04:43):
So sad because you know how much money this man
has made in his career, and it wasn't enough. He
wasn't Like when when you hear people doing stuff like this,
they could say they did it for the money and
their family, whatever they want to say.

Speaker 2 (04:55):
It's like Walter White and breaking Bad. You did it
for you.

Speaker 3 (04:58):
You didn't do this for anything other than yourself and crazy,
crazy story. Like you said, it's the tip of the
iceberg a lot of times, right, So much more stuff
is going to come out as it's unfold.

Speaker 2 (05:10):
So it's a really interesting story. I'm excited to follow.

Speaker 3 (05:13):
And you know, people like you said, they think it's
bad the legalization of gamelin. This is why it's good
because before this would be handled off the radar, this
would not be handled in the public eye. I promise
you that. So things are just changed now and it's
a good thing. These guys should the light a day.
And like you just said, all the laves it's going

(05:35):
to affect. This must be a huge, multi million dollar operation,
and like I said, it's it's gonna be really interesting
these next couple of months, all the information that's going
to come out.

Speaker 1 (05:43):
Some of the details from the press conference that the
US Attorney and the FBI had this morning in New
York were that the tables at these illegal poker games
included X ray technology that allowed site individuals to see
the face down cards of the players at the table

(06:06):
and then relay that information to other people at the table.
There were contact lenses and glasses that were able to
read watermarks, on pre marked cards at the table. There
were mini cameras inside the card trays that a lot

(06:26):
of the players had at their table, so the cameras
were able to read what cards people had and again
relay all that to off site operators who were then
able to share that with other people at the table.
I know a lot about these card rooms, like I've
spoken to a lot of professional poker players about it,
and a lot of people who are playing for high

(06:46):
stakes games. This is how a lot of professional poker players,
not games like these that are fixed, but a lot
of professional poker players even at the World Series of Poker,
these are the games that are going on. These are
the games where the cash is being traded, where you know,
it's one million, two million, three million, ten million on
the table at the World Series of Poker, because these

(07:08):
games go on all night and that's where the real
action is happening. And they've been at the center of
this gambling controversy that started with Jean de Porter and
so the marriage of these things, and it was also
I think a part of the Otani stuff, the marriage
of these things and how these things take place between
just very wealthy people across the board is where I

(07:29):
think sort of the real intriguing sort of narrative is
taking place. Just like you're in these poker rooms. You
like to play poker, you just said that, Like when
you're inside there, what does it feel like?

Speaker 3 (07:51):
I mean, it's fun, honestly, It's all about how you
viewed money though, like these people view money the same
way I do. That It's just it's something to have
fun with. It's not so much you know, like again,
you can have rough nights. No one wants to lose money.
But it's not like in Sopranos, right where the guys like, yeah,
I got one hundred and fifty K, and I owe

(08:11):
this this casino room. It doesn't really work that way, right,
It's you're spoken for. You're not going into debt selling
your business to play in these casino rooms.

Speaker 2 (08:19):
So that's what interesting part of this though.

Speaker 3 (08:22):
This is like way above my levels, Like I've played
in some games I shouldn't have been in, and I
literally play super tight and I'm literally just there to build.

Speaker 2 (08:31):
Relationships in the conversation, I honestly aim there.

Speaker 3 (08:34):
If I can get up ten k, great, If I
lose ten k, okay, I'll walk away. But I'll never
go all in unless I have the nuts, and guys
in that room will know that. So if I do push,
they almost always fold, So I can bluff myself into
some nice spots. But I play super super tight in
those games. There's guys who sit down and they will
go all in every three or four hands. They just

(08:55):
like the action and they're there for the drinks, the cigars,
the fun.

Speaker 2 (09:00):
It's it's all different. Everyone's there for different reasons.

Speaker 3 (09:02):
So this one, like you said from the top, Chauncey Billups,
if someone said you want to come to this pooker game,
you can beat Chauncey Billups.

Speaker 2 (09:10):
I'm a sucker.

Speaker 3 (09:10):
I would have been there so him be them putting
him out there and being like he was running this
thing and he knew that he could get people in
there because of who he was. I believe that right
from the top. So yeah, again, American reporting people keep
saying it's dying, Chad's it's not dead yet. It's not
dead yet, and the stories are pretty incredible when they

(09:31):
do get broken. So yeah, I don't know if it's
gonna be Pablo Torrey finds out, but you know, that's
the greatest fear I think at all sports media right
now is you do not want to know if Pablo
toy is looking into you. I would love a Poblo
breakdown a show about this one, because, like we said,
we're just getting the layers here.

Speaker 2 (09:49):
Man, you think it just stops at Terry Rosier.

Speaker 3 (09:52):
I mean, this tea might get really juicing in the
NBA not I don't want to say it's the most
corrupt league or whatever, but between the the owners, the players,
no other leagues have these type of scandals right now.
This is really really wild that every sport has their
own little scandals. I hope this is where it ends

(10:13):
for the.

Speaker 2 (10:13):
NBA because between what's going on the Clippers now what's
going on with players in the league.

Speaker 3 (10:20):
They need this to stop. You need this to stop
the NBA. This is such a bad look.

Speaker 1 (10:25):
Well look, the the player prop problem is the biggest
challenge for the NBA. And Adam Silver was on Pat
McAfee thirty six hours ago, forty eight hours ago talking

(10:46):
about working with the operators to try to limit certain
player prop markets, and I will tell you right now,
I don't believe legalization is the cause of these issues.
I think legalization is part of why we are learning
more and more about these issues. There are so many
people that are involved in the chain that have so

(11:08):
much to lose financially. And I don't mean individuals, I
mean huge corporations and these leagues. It is in their
best interest as much as it is a bad look
when this happens, to root out every single one of
these instances, because you can't have bad actors, and there

(11:29):
are always going to be bad actors. And we've talked
about this on this show. Literally the National League was
formed in something like eighteen seventy six. In eighteen seventy seven,
there was a scandal about players who were fixing baseball games.
It is going to happen. It is time immemorium. It
is not going to stop people from betting. The amount

(11:52):
of money that is wagered every year gets bigger and bigger.
Only now we have a much better understanding of what
that money is and where that money is going to realize.

Speaker 2 (12:00):
We're catching check because these are done through legal books.
We're not talking offshore.

Speaker 1 (12:04):
Well that's what I mean.

Speaker 2 (12:06):
Really, that's why you need these legal books.

Speaker 3 (12:08):
Like Chad saying here, it's like without it, we wouldn't
catch these people, maybe it'd all be offshore like it
used to be, and there'd be no stories in the
news like your naive if you think this is something
new is what I think we're both saying, RIGHTO.

Speaker 1 (12:19):
Right, And but I don't want to turn this into
like advocacy for sports betting, because we are both sort
of shills in that regard. But I do think that
back to the player props, that's the biggest challenge. You know,
you mentioned a guy is making so much money, why
would he do it while he's doing it for him?
I don't know what Terror Razier's financial situation is. I

(12:43):
don't know who he was doing this for, why he
was doing it, what the situation was in any capacity.
I do know that Terror Razier is in the last
year of a four year, ninety six million dollar contract. Yeah, right,
And so he's not Jante Porter. He's not the guy
who's on a two way at the end of the bench,
is bouncing around between the G League and the NBA

(13:05):
and maybe fifty thousand dollars as a quick amount of
cash means something to him. So we don't know what
it is with Terry Razier. But the premise has always
been that a lot of these leagues are protected from
fixing scandals because the amount of money for the people
who can impact the actual game is so high that

(13:26):
it won't be worth it for them to get caught
up in this. But the props change that. The props
change everything, and I think specifically in the NBA more
than any other league, it's harder for a running back
to always be in control of his own destiny because
he doesn't know how many times he's going to get
the ball right. That's determined on the situation in the

(13:48):
flow of the game. Same with baseball, it's really only
controlled by the pitcher. And we've already seen in the
case of the Guardians' pitchers who have been suspended under
under investigation how that can be figured out. Because it
is so egregious that there are monitoring agencies and the
operators in the leagues that are working together say we've
got some weird activity. We got to flag this. The NBA, anybody,

(14:13):
any individual player, with all the markets that are available,
as much as they are trying to limit the markets
that are allowable, especially for end of bench players, that's
an impossible scenario to police. That changes the argument about
whether or not there is an amount of money that
would keep people from fixing a game, because it's not
about the game anymore. It's just about your individual performance.

(14:35):
And even then, it's not about always doing badly. It's
about just doing badly enough to make it look like
it's not suspicious. That's the real and city is dangerous.
Part of what we're talking about here is that prop market,
especially for the NBA. I don't know. I don't know
how they fix it.

Speaker 3 (14:55):
I don't know either, but they've been trying for years.
I mean, let's face it, the NBA, this isn't new.
We never talk about it, like the ref between the
ref scandals, the player scandals. It's it's been there in
this league for a long time. I mean, the greatest
player in NBA history had a gambling scandal.

Speaker 2 (15:13):
So you know, they're in a really.

Speaker 3 (15:16):
Tough spot where whatever it is that nature that it
goes handing in every sport has its degenerates. I mean,
we had a guy on talking about Pete Rose, some
amazing stories, but.

Speaker 2 (15:27):
It just feels like, as we're going along.

Speaker 3 (15:29):
Here chat, it's just of all the leagues I have
the least amount of trust in right now, obviously air hockey,
you know that whole scandal and all that stuff. Badminton,
we're not talking about. We're talking about the major sports,
NBA of the major sports right now it has My
eyes are definitely fixed on it, and I have I

(15:49):
just hope this is it. I hope this is the
end of it, because it's just this could get really bad.
Like we've talked about. We haven't really talked about, but
it's it's coming pared to a lot of people that
the NBA hit its peak with Lebron in Golden State
against Steph Curry, right, that.

Speaker 2 (16:04):
Was the ratings galore.

Speaker 3 (16:07):
The MLB has a real opening here because it's like
a romantic sadrenal. MB has had a nice re substance
of coming back to being a major sport. It's biggest
scandal with its biggest player. It looks like they avoided it,
and it's I don't know about you, but like Otani,
he's the greatest player I've ever seen in my lifetime.
So it's like, I get why they found a way out.

(16:30):
They move bridges to make that work, and like we
always joke, he's one of us.

Speaker 2 (16:34):
Like it makes me love.

Speaker 3 (16:35):
Them even more knowing the guy's a gambler. But the
based stuff, it's not funny, it's not cute. This is
scary stuff. It's within its league with its big players.
Like Chad just said, I didn't know Terry made a
ninety million That's that's insane amount of money.

Speaker 1 (16:50):
Four year, ninety six million dollar deal.

Speaker 3 (16:52):
So yeah, it's I'm sure you're gonna get a ton
of calls over the next week, you'll get more infun of.

Speaker 1 (16:58):
But as we said it right now is literally I
just checked it. It's like NonStop texting right now from
people in the industry, from people who are just waking
up to this. Uh, they're truly astonished. They're blown away. Look,
last I'm a massive NBA fan. I watched League Pass constantly.

(17:22):
I was on lead Pass last night. I started with
the Calves and the Knicks. Then I went over to
the Bulls. I'm watching the Bulls and the Pistons and
Adam Amine and Stacy King who are the Bulls play
by play and color commentary. They're brilliant. I love them together.
It's It's one of my favorite things is when the

(17:42):
season starts, it's like it's I did see VJ. Edgecomb
and dominate it and Tyrese Maxi go for forty. But
and but here, here's my point is, Adam Amine is
a brilliant play by play guy. And we've seen that season.
He did that fifteen innings Mariner's game, he does NFL,

(18:03):
he does the Bulls play by play. Last night they
were playing the Pistons and they were talking about Ducan
Robinson and Duncan Robinson has replaced as a three point
threat Malik Beasley. Malik Beasley, who had a record setting
year last year, had gotten a new contract from the
Pistons and then he was part of a gambling investigation
and that contract was pulled and he's still on the

(18:27):
street because the investigation is still happening. And you know,
Adam Amine was doing a brilliant job of explaining what
it is and perfectly threading the needle, not being accusatory,
not saying anything that was sort of a stretch about
where the investigation is, but being specific that this was

(18:48):
about prop betting, right, and Malik Beasley no joke. Thirty
seconds after he's done an in game promo for the
betting spot, answer of the Chicago Bulls in the game
comes up all about live player props. You can be
betting in the middle of that game. And Adam Amine,

(19:10):
to his credit, did not skip a beat. He did
not try to gloss over it. He acknowledged the irony.
He noticed the He called out his producer. He's like,
I can't believe you're doing this right now. It was brilliant.
I kind of feel like that's us right now. There's

(19:30):
a very serious thing happening, and we obviously have to
talk about it. And you and I have both been
very lucky and very successful in this particular industry for many,
many years, both with the show and way beyond this show,
and we're gonna have a good time talking about these
NFL games, but it's hard not to acknowledge the serious

(19:53):
nature of what's happening and the ramifications on the industry.
So that's why we're going to keep talking about it
and keep filing up on what's happening with this investigation.
It's crazy. Chauncey Billups terror ra Zero arrested by the
FBI as part of the legal gambling investigations. Two days

(20:16):
ago or yesterday, the NCBULA passed the law allowing college
athletes to brett to bet on pro Sports with one
of the guys who was on the committee that allowed
it basically saying, we got to acknowledge the universe we
live in and this is happening, which is how we
ended up with legalized betting to begin with. And the
NHL signed deals with multiple prediction market platforms which have

(20:38):
zero regulation. So here's where we are. People are going
to say there needs to be regulation. People are going
to sign deals with prediction markets who want to pay
them a boatload of money that have no regulation. This
is the state the sports betting world that we live in.
The NFL chugs on and we're going to have to
figure out how we are telling our audience and what

(21:01):
we like in an upcoming weekend that for our Thursday,
Week eight episode, we need to narrow down the options
on our questifying five picks that we can agree on.
And I think it's hard because meanwhile, all this head twisting,
mind bending, the Pandora's box is wide freaking open. News

(21:22):
is happening. And this may be the strangest week for
betting so far this NFL season because we've got the
buy to get in, so we don't have a ton
of games, and the games that are being played. There's
been like half point movements at the most on the
games being played except for one of them. The Chiefs
have moved two points from ten and a half to
twelve and a half against the Washington Commanders off of

(21:43):
the confirmation of Jade Daniels. So, man, you know reminder
subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. It
all sounds silly, ah, Listen every week, Simon. Every week
we give out our picks, and every single week your

(22:05):
fellow pro gamblers call to yell at you or compliment
you about the conversations we're having. We're having because we
know the wise guys are paying attention. It's time to
summarize those opinions. It's time for sharp calls.

Speaker 3 (22:21):
Hal to answer this phone, all right, rain range, telephone range.

Speaker 1 (22:28):
Somebody said, maybe want you do man?

Speaker 2 (22:33):
Yeah? And interesting week. I know you didn't love it.
I'm on the other side.

Speaker 3 (22:37):
I love these kind of weeks, Like there just feels
like it's people view it AS's gonna be a boring
by the book type of week, And all I can
just see is there's there could be a lot of
madness and a lot of teams that need this week
to get right and when we talked about I still
love the Panthers, but I'm surprised there are some real
smart pros coming in on that Bill's side, and I'll

(23:01):
read some stats, some trends. I still think people are
overlooking on this Panthers team. But it seems like the
pros I talk to want to fade anytime they can.
And Andy Dolton start, they just think he is absolutely finished.
No idea how he's still in this league with a job.
So that's a game we'll break down. But I can
tell you I know some really smart money on the Bills,

(23:22):
and they'll end up in our money one round Robin.
I'm not too upset about that now, knowing there's so
much love there. It's actually a great spot for Josh
Allen to win out right the Bears. Some real smart
pros on the Bears here as wow. Yeah, And it's
they just are not buying Lamar's right, And they're also
not buying this Ravens team. They don't think it matters

(23:43):
they're getting all these guys back healthy, that this team
is just not as good as people perceive.

Speaker 2 (23:48):
I still think they're.

Speaker 3 (23:49):
Overlooking how hard of a schedule with this team had like, yeah,
they lost the Lions at home, they lost to the
Eagles at home.

Speaker 2 (23:56):
That might be the two of the best teams the NFC.

Speaker 3 (23:58):
Like I just I think the Raimis have just had
a really brutal start to the year and professionals are
still holding against them and they just are a namer
With this Bears team, who have is a four straight covers,
they might have like they just been cashing for them.

Speaker 2 (24:12):
They love them.

Speaker 3 (24:13):
It's a Rams team that can't stop the run going
against a really really well run team in the Bears
who had running the ball. So interesting game. We'll have
to break down some more. Got a lot of love
for my Houston picked but I knew that was gonna
be the pro side and we'll get into that one.
It's just historically a horrible spot for the forty nine ers.
They tend to lose those type of games.

Speaker 2 (24:34):
The Jets. Tons of love for the Jets.

Speaker 3 (24:37):
Love that we had on the Jets money line, but
like we joked, not a shocker every week.

Speaker 2 (24:42):
The pros are gonna bet them.

Speaker 3 (24:43):
Got a bunch of calls about the Giants, the pros
they're gonna bet the Giants every week. Not shocked at all.
It's it's a money maker for them. So Chat was
spot on about his call about the Saints. He said,
it's just gonna be a team that pros are enamored with.
We are like every probably talk to. They're in the
same boat as me. But again, I think it's a
game we'll get into more about why we like them.

(25:04):
And yeah, for sure, surprisingly has not been good for
the Saints to be at home. I couldn't believe that
diving into their record at home, they just there is
Like you said, you're right, there is no true home
field advantage for this Saints team like there used to be.

Speaker 2 (25:19):
And the last two two games, we love.

Speaker 3 (25:22):
Pros love Denver, The pros love the Steelers. I told
you there are some pros on Green Bay. It's not
as much as I thought it was going to be
earlier in the week. I think their early love didn't
make sense. But the more pros I talked, it seems
like the more they're on Pittsburgh and that that Dallas
game does have some pros on it, but it's very,
very more so the public on the Cowboys, and it's

(25:44):
the pros for the most part on that Denver side.

Speaker 2 (25:47):
So a lot of games that go through I know,
like Chad said, there's three bye weeks. Surprisingly amount of
love for.

Speaker 3 (25:56):
The favorites this week from some professional I've talked to you.
So yeah, very interesting week for this lineup.

Speaker 1 (26:01):
All right, well let's get into it, and let's start
right away with Chicago. At Baltimore that number was at
six and a half. It is down to six at
hard Rock Bet. I thought by now it would have
gone in the other direction, but simon, the Baltimore Ravens

(26:22):
are going to be our balls better the week presented
by hard Rock Bet.

Speaker 2 (26:30):
You know what it takes, brass balls.

Speaker 1 (26:36):
We think today is crazy with news yesterday. The first
text I see in the morning is from a buddy
in the Chicago text group that sent it overnight a
video of Lamar Jackson allegedly at a late night hot

(26:56):
food truck in Baltimore, ordering loads and loads of food, food,
not looking like he's connected to the conscious world. And
because you know of the world we live in today,
I immediately thought, well, this is weird, and of course

(27:21):
by the end of the day Lamar had said that
wasn't true. It was an AI video and you know, like,
I don't know if that had an impact on the
move at all. But meanwhile, he did not practice yesterday
and it was limited in practice. It was a walk through.
He was taking the third string snaps. And I got

(27:45):
a text in the middle of the day from my
buddy Mark Silverman, who's better known as Sylvie. He hosts
the very popular show Wattle and Sylvie on ESPN Radio
in Chicago, and ask me what the line would be
if Lamar wasn't playing, And it hadn't occurred to me
that he wouldn't be playing. So that's when I went

(28:06):
to check, like what's happening with the practice reports and
saw I think, if Lamar Jackson's not playing, it's pick
maybe the Bears are minus one.

Speaker 2 (28:14):
Did you see what Houston did to the Ravens two
weeks ago?

Speaker 1 (28:20):
I did.

Speaker 3 (28:20):
They got embarrassed by Houston team that's we can both agree,
not the greatest team in the world.

Speaker 2 (28:25):
They beat them by like thirty points. I mean, what
are we doing here?

Speaker 1 (28:28):
Like, well, I'm assuming that the Ravens are going to
be significantly more healthy on defense, and as they did
last year in the second half of the year, they
gave Zach Orr tremendous amount of help to figure out
how to fix that freaking defense, and they got better
at it. I'm banking on a little bit of press
president here in a little bit of health. But here's

(28:51):
the bigger question. Lamar is playing the lines down to six.
We've made it our brass Balls bet of the week.
Here's a stat from our friend John Ing, who tweeted
this yesterday. You ready, this is good for us, put
us back together. Since two thousand and three, teams that
have won twenty percent or fewer of their games. So

(29:11):
the Baltimore Ravens and our favorites against an opponent with
a winning record fifty six percent against the spread. I
just think this is a great spot for the Ravens
if Lamar is playing and he's healthy, and you know,
I think we're hoping that he is. That's why we
made it the brass Balls. The brass balls part here

(29:32):
is betting on the fact that Lamar is going to
be playing and thinking we're getting the Ravens at less
than a touchdown because I do think they'll fix some
of the issues on defense. I think they've gotten healthier
and I think that the Bears defense is going to
have real issues against this rushing offense.

Speaker 2 (29:48):
You need to give out the best part of that
stat as a favorite.

Speaker 3 (29:50):
So that exact team you just talked about, a team
with twenty percent fewer wins as a favorite of three
points or more in this spot, those teams thirty and four,
team sixty eight against the spread.

Speaker 1 (30:02):
That's right, that's right. I forgot that. I mean, I
forget that.

Speaker 2 (30:05):
It's it's a raven spot. You know, historically.

Speaker 3 (30:11):
We've seen after Bie weeks hardball has done well. I
think he's ten and seven ats after his bie a week,
and you know, we're fading a Bears team that they're
on our role right now. Like we were talking, I
don't know if that was you know, on the shore
before the show, but they're four they've covered.

Speaker 2 (30:26):
In one four straight games. Yeah, like this is normally
a team we try to avoid because they are so high.

Speaker 3 (30:34):
Right now, they're playing so well and the books keep
undervaluing them and the pros are joining. I mean, like
you just said, this is down to six a hard
rock because there is so much unknown about what's what's
up a little more, But I am banking on it
all being smoke screens and him being a total difference
maker of this team, even if he is missing.

Speaker 2 (30:51):
That half a step.

Speaker 3 (30:53):
Him pushing the ball downfield like they got Isaiah likely
back as well, which I think is gonna be huge
for them. But that's what's been last Like Cooper Rush
can't put the ball downfield and there's no threat to run,
so Derek Henry's just had a stack box and they've
been able to just put one on one on the outside.
So well, Mark changes everything. There's a reason every year
is then in it for MVP me and you are

(31:15):
simply betting on unknown here, which is scary.

Speaker 2 (31:17):
Well, we have to take the value.

Speaker 3 (31:18):
This is a great number, a great line for a
Ravens team that everything we've seen, they should be healthy
in a get right spot here against the Bears, and
like we said, the trends that love this spot as
well for this this Ravens team.

Speaker 1 (31:31):
Baltimore Ravens minus six at hard Rock Bet right now.
Unfortunately I bet him at six and a half, but
we are on them. We are on the Ravens. That
is our brass Balls Better of the Week sponsored by
hard Rep Bet. I have the New York Giants plus
seven and a half at Philly they are actually three touchdown,
four touchdown games that I thought about putting in here.

(31:51):
You mentioned the Carolina Panthers are seven and a half
at the bill with the hosting the Bills. Miami is
seven and a half at Atlanta. Cleveland is seven at
New England. You brought up the Panthers in Sharp Calls.
I went with this one because it feels like the

(32:12):
best combination of pointspread value, getting the hook, situational value
because it's the divisional game, and matchup value. I don't
have a strong opinion on any of them anymore, to
be honest, so I would like a little bit of clarity.

Speaker 2 (32:30):
What do you mean, like, why are the pros betting
the Giants? No?

Speaker 1 (32:33):
No, no, no. I mean like, if we were to
have to include one of these four in our final five,
I lean to the Giants. I think I'm off the
Panthers for the same reason the wise guys that you
said in the Sharp Calls, and we hadn't discussed this.
I just don't trust Andy Dalton. This is a really
good running team, and I think it's a really good

(32:55):
running team because of the things Bryce Young can do
in the pocket and Andy Young, Andy Dalt and can't
do those things, so and a little bit concerned that
the Bills are getting some key players back or haven't
been with them all season on the defensive side of
the ball who could help with the rush. So I
walked away from that one, and I think I'm most

(33:16):
leaning into the Giants at seven and a half.

Speaker 3 (33:19):
Okay, I got some good stats for that Bill's game.
We can talk about this Giants game for now. I
probably come around more to the Giants side here and
why guys are pitching it. I'm finally just simply having
the Eagles and my money line round Robin and I
can eat that seven and just get a seven and
a half by one of the Giants. You're right, it's
probably still too inflative of a number in a matchup
that the Eagles just haven't proven they can close teams out.

Speaker 2 (33:42):
They haven't played two good halfs of football this year.

Speaker 3 (33:44):
They just it's been there Achilles Hill all season, no doubt.
Could they beat this Giants team by twenty Yes, this
is a Giants team that lost their number one receiver,
and as dominant as their power shruss has been, you
would think the Eagles with that offensive line to be
able to get some stops against those guys, but it

(34:06):
egles Line's hurt, like we've talked about that. Also, Line
is just injured. Yeah, the main reason Saquon can't get going.
So I agree Giants and of all those guys, I
agree with you, that's probably the best one.

Speaker 2 (34:18):
But it's also just be cautious.

Speaker 3 (34:21):
It's like, it's, uh, this Giants team, we saw what
can happen with them, right like in that Saints game,
what was a five straight turnovers? We know we're been into.
We've been into a rookie quarterback on the road in
a divisional game with an offense that he's making it work.
But like we said, they're they're just they're not real

(34:41):
weapons on the outside. So yeah, there's there is some
hesitation for me. But game wide value.

Speaker 1 (34:49):
Of those four games that I mentioned that are all
seven to seven and a half, Giants, Eagles, Bill's Panthers,
Brown's New England, and Miami at Atlanta, if we had
to put one of those in, I'm worried. We're like,
I think we have four games we love and I

(35:10):
think we're struggling to find a fifth of those four games.
Would you put any of those in?

Speaker 3 (35:15):
I mean, I like, like I talk of the Patriots
is a horrible spot. I having a crazy stat about
that game too. It's the trap of traps. I still
like the Patriots. I just I can't find I can't
find the points for the rounds. So that's a game
we're definitely gonna put in and lose, no doubt about Patriots.

Speaker 1 (35:33):
But for the record, I haven't bet any of these
games yet.

Speaker 2 (35:36):
So if we want to take your renny, you want
to give you my stat for that Panthers.

Speaker 1 (35:40):
Yeah, give it to me. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (35:41):
It's what we've been talking about at nauseum about these
home dogs early in the year. When it crosses seven,
it's you can say it's lazy, and we just keep
cashing it.

Speaker 2 (35:53):
It keeps hitting.

Speaker 3 (35:54):
It's just it is what it is with the trend,
and it's all about the spot where these home teams
are under valued. There's a road favorite like the Bills
that are being priced like there were last year. Now
let's just dive into the trend. So in the first
nine games of the year, Okay, what are we in chat?

Speaker 2 (36:11):
Is Week eight?

Speaker 3 (36:12):
Yes, they fit this home teams seven plus points seven
points or more, forty and eleven against the spread at home.
So we've hit this a bunch of times already this season.
It's worked for us. We did the Giants. What was
that two weeks ago against the Eagles on that Thursday game?

Speaker 2 (36:30):
Yeah? Was that?

Speaker 3 (36:33):
No, I don't know if the Bengals were home. Was
that Bengals game in Green Bay? I forget with Flacco,
but they were like a ten point dog.

Speaker 1 (36:40):
That might have been the Bengals game was I can't remember.

Speaker 3 (36:43):
I think it was the only time we've lost this
bet is with Tennessee. So that's how good it's been
where we bet these bad teams. It comes through now.
I looked in these stats Josh Josh Allen after a
bye week in his career eight and no up, So
this is a no brainer going to be in our
money on round robin all the auto spot for Alan. Historically,

(37:09):
he's performed really well in these type of matchups, and
I thought it was interesting the stat from our guys
at bet Labs, and this also includes our Broncos. Panthers
and Broncos both won three straight games by seven points
or less over the last decade. Teams that fit that
description thirty and forty six against the spreads of forty percent. Okay,

(37:32):
not egregious, but when they're listed as an underdog, which
our Panthers are here, they are ten and twenty six
straight up, twelve twenty three and one against the spread.

Speaker 2 (37:42):
So that's bad exactly.

Speaker 1 (37:43):
Those are both bad things for.

Speaker 3 (37:45):
Us, well, mainly for the Panthers, a little bit for
the Broncos, but really for the Panthers. Where it's like,
I've been trying to find ways for me to stay
away from this one, and like anything, any.

Speaker 2 (37:55):
Lazy static I had a buddy sent me a stat.
It was like, yeah, the Bills.

Speaker 3 (37:58):
Franchise history three you o spreading straight up against this
Panthers team. Again, useless stat, but I love it because
it's like, Okay, maybe I can avoid this game. So,
like you said, Bills are getting a bunch of guys
back healthy.

Speaker 2 (38:10):
I was going to all to play this one.

Speaker 3 (38:12):
But Andy Dalton one in five ats is a backup
coming in and being a starter is one win one
cover Chad probably against the Raiders they like won by
like twenty points on this horrible Panthers team.

Speaker 2 (38:23):
Then he lost four straight.

Speaker 1 (38:25):
So that's right.

Speaker 3 (38:27):
I'm glad we can avoid this one. Uh, We'll have
the Bills and our money line around Robin It maybe
throwing a couple of teasers, but yeah, this is uh
I thought was a panther spot. Thought the trends liked
it more I read into it. It's it's it's become
more of a bill spot.

Speaker 1 (38:42):
Let's let's talk about a game that we know we're
gonna like San Francisco at Houston. Houston is a one
point favorite at hard Rock bat. This was Simon says.
I hope people got it because of a lot of
other places. It's moved to one and a half and
the Niners had even more injuries on defense on Sunday.
On Sunday and brutal. I think they're having a really

(39:03):
hard time getting pressure without Bosa and that has been
the biggest prop for CJ. Stroud. We saw a lot
of that against the Seahawks. So I'm feeling more and
more comfortable, even though we've got a flipped line here
just for a moment on the Texans, and as you
mentioned in sharp Calls, so give me your take on

(39:24):
why we're still feel uncomfortable.

Speaker 2 (39:25):
I don't think you but this is something real crazy there.
H Yeah.

Speaker 1 (39:27):
For so I'm walking away well.

Speaker 2 (39:30):
It's always funny.

Speaker 3 (39:31):
Like I'm out about and I ran into a couple
of buddies who do listen to our show, and they're like, like, dude,
are you the sucker for taking a two and four
Houston team against a five or two Foreigners team in
their favorite Like isn't this an easy bet on the
fort I'm like, when you say something like that to me,
makes me be more confident on Houston where it's like
I'm hoping more people think like he is, where they're
overlooking a lot of underlying stuff with his Foreigners team,

(39:53):
and like you said, the injuries are the biggest one.
But to me, it's the trends Shanahan, whatever it is
he's moving in this era that he's his teams just
don't get up for games after wins since twenty twenty three.
So like late December twenty twenty three, forty nine ers
one and thirteen against the spread after a straight up win,

(40:14):
and they're failing to cover those spreads by seven and
a half points.

Speaker 2 (40:18):
So that's that's not just a.

Speaker 3 (40:19):
Little little bit of data that's over two years now,
Like twenty twenty three December, that was a long time ago,
just a different team after these wins in the sense
that they just don't cover. Like the fact that they
get over valued by the general public after wins just
shows that's happening time and time again in the market.
So I really like that stat for Houston, and I

(40:42):
immediately thought to myself, Okay, well, let's dive into what
Chad talked about, right the defense. How are they been
and how how's the fortyin ers offense against really good defenses?
And you know, their last nine games against defenses again,
this is a Shanan stat again, defense that allowed seventeen
points or less per game, which is that's the Houston's

(41:04):
bread and butter right now.

Speaker 2 (41:05):
They're a great defensive team.

Speaker 3 (41:07):
Shane hands one to eight against the spread on the
road or neutral sites since twenty twenty two. He's actually
lost five straight in this exact spot. So already kind
of loved Houston here because what Chad talked about, there's
a ton of injuries this forign ires team, and I
felt like this was a get right spot for Houston
that just got embarrassed on a short week. This is
kind of the perfect recipe of them to get that
taste out of their mouth. Move on to the next week,

(41:29):
and this Foreign hours team now with all the unknown
of Purty and a bank dub mac Jones, and we
still we don't know who the quarterback is for this week.
I just think there's so much going on now, this
Foreign Inners team them getting to be them being five
and three with all they've gone through, that makes more
sense than this Houston team totally laying another egg at
home here and the forty andres moved to six and two.

(41:51):
This feels like a bad spot plus four and I
ers team. On the flip side, Houston their defense, this
should be a great match for them in the sense
that they have two limited quarterbacks. They have two really
good ed rushers on their team, and like we said
that that defense they put them in the spot to
win against the Seahawks. The CJ just screwed us over
and chat talked about it. CJ has no pass rush fear.

(42:12):
That tends to be when he shines. So I'm glad
you've come around this texta team. I know it feels gross.
I get one on Tuesday. You were like, I hate this,
but it just feels like it's a number you have
to play in a spot we have to bet.

Speaker 1 (42:23):
Yeah, I mean that's you know, like none of us
are immune in recency bias and so tough. It takes
a minute. It takes a minute, especially four hours, you know,
I know it's really hard. Yeah, speaking really hard. New
York Jets plus six and a half at Cincinnati. I've
been trying to avoid this one. I mean, like, we're
gonna have to find five bests that we love. And

(42:45):
it makes no sense that the Bengals are six and
a half point favorites over anyone. If we know Tyrad
Taylor is starting on Sunday and we still have forty
eight hours to truly understand if he is, it feels
like it might have to make it into one of
our favorites. Five weeks of the year, the Jets played
struggling or bad defenses. In the Steelers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Bucks,

(43:06):
and Bills average twenty three points a game. The Bengals
have allowed fewer than twenty seven points once this season.
It is just a dreadful, dreadful, dreadful defense. It's the
kind of defense that might be Aaron Aaron Glenn and
Jets proof, you know what I mean. And so.

Speaker 2 (43:24):
I don't know, I'm not gonna waste people's time on it.

Speaker 3 (43:25):
But if if you want to, just if you don't
like any of our other bets and you were like,
what's the grossest bet that I have to bet this week?
Because it's a long term winner. This Jets is a
long term winner. I know doesn't feel like it, but
it's a unique spot. It's I mean, there's tons of stats,
like teams that are owned for like they are and
they go on the road, they tend to cover these
exact games. It's only the only other team owned four
this year that's gone on the road and covered was

(43:48):
the Titans. The Titans did it, So that's what I mean, Like,
it's usually a spot for these teams. So I mean
the Titans could do it. Goddamn Jets, you gotta do
it as well.

Speaker 2 (43:56):
But I'm with you.

Speaker 3 (43:57):
I'm not going to force this into our contest. I'm
not gonna make people bet this, but yes, I will
be on the Jets. We will put them on money
line round robin and yeah, I hate it, two people,
that's gross.

Speaker 1 (44:08):
We're just gonna do it where it's just I feel
like it's happening. I feel like we can't avoid it.
I feel like it's the beacon that is drawing us
in Tampa Bay at New Orleans. You mentioned this in
sharp Calls that number is down to three and a
half at hard Rock beat and half. So's it's gone
down two full points now. And wow, look you mentioned

(44:32):
Baker is a little bit banged up. We know Mike
Evans is out Godwin a Mecca Buca was not at
full speed in that game the other night. I just
don't trust the Saints. I feel like everyone is trying
to force the Saints down my throat, like we have
to be betting on the Saints and they're a wise
guy team, and like I hear it all. Spencer isn't

(44:53):
as bad as a record, and he's really good against pressure,
and he hasn't made turnover worthy plays. They're really unlucky.
I hear it all. And like we see the imbalance
between the bets and the money. The Bucks are getting
seventy percent of the bets and the Saints are getting
seventy percent of the money. Like it is one the

(45:14):
sharp side the Saints. We've seen the activity. We've seen
the number move huge reverse line movement, meaning that the
bets are coming in on the box and the money
and the line is moving in the direction of the Saints. Fishy.

Speaker 2 (45:31):
Yeah, again, it doesn't mean it's the right side just
because the pros are on it. But it's like I said,
you should have grabbed the four and after to grab
the five and a half. Yes, that was going to
be the pro side, just because it's.

Speaker 3 (45:41):
A number that is inflated, and just because of the injuries,
like you Chad said it, God no, Godwin, no Mike Evans,
no Bucky Irving, like Meccha Buka is not full strength.
That's a big deal. Like those things do matter. The
thing you can hang your head on. It's it's Baker
versus Spencer rat and rather and the Saints team. They

(46:02):
have not been good at home, Like even this year,
they have not really been covered. You know, I thought
they played well at home. Surprisingly they have not been
covering at home. So you're right, probably overvalued by professionals.
I talked a little bit about it, like how weird
of this Bucks team is like minus one point differential,
and Evan Admers had an amazing stat about it. Basically,

(46:24):
they're the first team since twenty twenty two to be
eight games in with a winning percentage like that and
a negative point differential the other two teams where the
Browns and the Bills, neither of them end up covering
in this exact spot in this week, because it's like
it's just simply a team that plays close under overvalued
by the market. That makes sense Baker's career. I've talked

(46:46):
about it, like them as a dog. Always feel better
taking Baker as a dog. Yeah, really hate taking Baker
as a favorite, let alone a favorite against the visional opponents.
In his career, he's played twenty one games against the
opponents as a favorite. He is seven and fourteen against
the spread. So since he's been drafted, of the eighty

(47:06):
two starters in the league, he is the worst win
percentage against divisional foes as a favorite. So just understand
what you're betting in two year. If you are taking
the buck side, it's not a good number. It's not
a good side. Like Chad saying, this Saints team, no
one's gonna feel good betting them, right, they have not
Probably You're probably right. They do not deserve to be
getting this much line movement. It is now down to

(47:28):
three and a half at hard Rock. I'm not going
to force that in like to me four and a half,
five and a half. I felt confident there. I won't
chase this number.

Speaker 2 (47:35):
But I still think if you want to bet this,
I don't think it's moved enough. I have it at three.

Speaker 3 (47:40):
You're still getting a good number technically on this this
Saints team, but I need every point. I need every
point if I'm gonna bet Spencer Rattler. And it was
the same reason last week I didn't force them in
with us against that Bears team because it's like it's
it was Spencer Ratler outdoors in the elements. I'm just
not gonna get there.

Speaker 2 (47:58):
So yeah, it's it's not great for Baker and make
a sure career with the books as a favorite on
the road.

Speaker 3 (48:06):
He's four and five against the spread, So it's it's
not a good bigger spot. That's what I'm trying to
get people understanding. You just don't don't force us one
in this week. We said it's a short week, not
many options. Either play the Saints or don't play this
number at all.

Speaker 1 (48:18):
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Speaker 2 (50:03):
Do you want to doubt that Patriots Browns game?

Speaker 1 (50:06):
Or No, I don't know what to do with it
because it feels like the spot where we should be
completely walking away if we know better from from the Browns,
because it's not where they are. It's like we found
a winning formula.

Speaker 2 (50:20):
No, No, I'm on New England, aren't you on New England?

Speaker 3 (50:21):
With me.

Speaker 1 (50:21):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally. So I am on New England.
I don't know how the Browns are getting any points.
Like Dylan Garabidel is not an NFL quarterback. That's it.

Speaker 3 (50:32):
I saw this amazing statu. It goes to the Patriots
and the Bears, and it's basically about these teams in
these four plus game ats win streaks like straight up
and against the spread. So those teams that didn't This
is again Evan Abrams amazing stat These are those the
exact teams that didn't make the playoffs last year and
now they're on four plus game winning streaks straight up

(50:52):
and against the spread, and this exact spot they are
fourteen twenty six and one against the spread. Since twenty
two twenty two, they are one in fourteen against the
spread in the spot. So it is like, I know
exactly we're walking into betting this Patriots team.

Speaker 1 (51:11):
We're stepping into it, and like to be clear, so
like I shouldn't say I bet it. I have not
other than the Panthers.

Speaker 2 (51:18):
I took that six and they were six and a half.
A couple of books I took you.

Speaker 1 (51:21):
That I like, I have not bet the Falcons. I
have not bet the Giants, and I have not bet
the Patriots, and I'm not sure that I will. The
only bet you just said to make you feel better, then
well hold on. The only the only game I've bet
of those four seven to seven and a half point
spreads is the Panthers, and that's only because I bet

(51:43):
it in the summer when I thought the line would
be much shorter, because I was so in on the
Panthers go ahead.

Speaker 3 (51:48):
So just this year, this feels like a Vrabel stat
the Patriots when they grew up by a touchdown remorse
of six plus points. They are five and oh straight
up and against the spread this season.

Speaker 1 (52:00):
In this way, I bet you bet Vrabel exactly.

Speaker 3 (52:03):
That's why I'm like thinking this game, I'm trying to
throw it all the numbers where it's like that that
sums up the veryble type of team he's going to
be this year, where it's like, if if he gets
up a lead in this game, I just how do
the Browns come back?

Speaker 2 (52:14):
So Chad's right, we should try to avoid this one.
I don't think I'm gonna be able to.

Speaker 3 (52:19):
I will be shocked come Sunday morning, like I'm gonna
probably bett in the Patriots my seven. I just I
can't get over how to how different this Browns team
is on the road and how bad of a spot
is for their quarterback. So yeah, I just it's it's
interesting those those trends pointing to it being a bad
spot for the Patriots, but they feel a little bit
like a unicorn here.

Speaker 1 (52:40):
Terrible Dallas at Denver, Denver, MINEUS three. Now, this was
Chad's choice when it was three and a half. It
moved in my direction basically because I move lines and
so nothing really moving me off of this pick other
than nightmares of bow knicks throwing into empty spots in

(53:07):
the middle of his own which he is not as
good as he is against man to man and unfortunately,
Matt Iberflus loves to play zone, except for last week
when he played Mando man against third and fourth string receivers.
So I liked when you said the wise guys were
on this because I very much wanted to be a

(53:32):
Broncos game.

Speaker 2 (53:34):
Yeah, I was really confident.

Speaker 1 (53:36):
I misspoke. I misspoke. I'm sorry. I bet this at three,
it moved up to three and a half, and now
it's back down to three. At hard Rock. Bet I apologize.
I moved on.

Speaker 2 (53:46):
Yeah, when we talk to you guys, really coughm this one.
Really loved Denver here, Thanky not the best.

Speaker 3 (53:53):
Just because Chad's talked about we're backing bow Knicks, who
as good he's been this year with all these crazy
comfort behind wins, we're telling people to take him at
minus three, minus three and a half as a favorite,
Like that's not ideal for a quarterback that seems like
he can't roll these teams, Like we need him to

(54:14):
roll Dallas because Dak's gonna get his We already talked
about Dak is one of the few quarterbacks I can
remember that is on an incredible run with a terrible defense.
When he's not turning the ball over, he's just playing
so smart. Like the biggest thing we could take away
from Dak is hoping for three and outs and we
have that.

Speaker 2 (54:31):
We've talked about it.

Speaker 3 (54:32):
This Broncos front should give them real problems and you know,
historical data. I talked to a lot of old, older
guys who talked about you know, this is a unique
spot where the Broncos tend to always own this Cowboys team.
Doesn't matter who the quarterbacks are, who the coaches are
you can go way back, And I was like, all right,
is that true?

Speaker 2 (54:49):
And I did.

Speaker 3 (54:50):
Look, last time Dallas beat Denver was with Troy Aikman.
So it's been a rough go for Dallas historically against
this Denver team. And I think me and you are
really banking on the defense. I know, Bo Nicks, we're
gonna need to move the ball, We're gonna need even
a score. But I like to think Sean Payne can
scheme it around this terrible Dallas defense. There's gonna be

(55:11):
plenty of options and holes. We just can't have him
do what he's been doing, which is slow starts like
he gets he puts himselves in these holes, and then
we're asking bo Nicks to throw us out of these holes,
which is not a specially want to be in. So yeah,
I know, I've had a couple people send me those trends.
Teams that basically come from behind like they did, it's
horrible for them historically the following game, right, they tend

(55:33):
to not cover.

Speaker 2 (55:33):
But me and Chad always say, there's a six percent chain.

Speaker 3 (55:38):
It's stat on the other side of that trend, So
we're just oping Bo's that thirty six percent we just
need him to show up here. And it really is
a bet though on that Broncos front, Like if we
get pressure on Dak Tax due to have a letdown game,
he's been so flawless.

Speaker 2 (55:56):
They you know the weapons they.

Speaker 3 (55:57):
Have Dallas, this this historically should be a bad matchup
for them, So pretty unique spot right. The total I
believe in this one's fifty as well. Bow Knicks his
career totals above forty five as a favorite.

Speaker 2 (56:11):
He's one three straight up and against the spread.

Speaker 3 (56:13):
So to prove it game for Bonnicks, you're getting a
bad defense, you need to put up points. This is
not going to be the type of game you're going
to be able to win twenty to ten, right, I
think that's going to get his So we we're betting
on Bonex here, Chab, I will stay with you. I
will still back this Brocks team, especially it minus three.
I think that's a great number.

Speaker 1 (56:32):
It makes me nervous. I'm not gonna lie, but come in.
I'm totally in Green Bay. At Pittsburgh the last game
we're discussing purely a play, purely a play. It's Pittsburgh
plus three, purely a play on the Steelers as dogs
at home. We do like what we've seen from Pittsburgh
as a defense now that everyone has returned from injury,
especially Alex Heighsmith. Why do you like me?

Speaker 2 (56:53):
We know what happened last year against the Bengals, but
you know.

Speaker 1 (56:56):
Yeah, but generally, generally, I also know that's.

Speaker 2 (57:00):
What the people are gonna be, Like, what the hell
is this guy talking about?

Speaker 1 (57:03):
Yeah, like people like when we said, like when when
we said the Bears would be eleven point favorites on
the road with an eighteen point swing. I'm not a
buyer of this Packers team. Like, they just don't seem
to be able to be as great as their individual
talent right now. I don't know what's going on there,

(57:23):
but this is the Robert mc thomlins spot. That's it.
That's all we're betting here.

Speaker 2 (57:29):
Again, one of us watched the Ravens play Houston. All
of us were out apple pickers.

Speaker 3 (57:34):
Oh my god, oh why they they're gallibant and it's
very bizarre. Yeah, no brainer. We're never gonna avoid this game.
We're gonna get burned by it, but historically we won't
like long.

Speaker 1 (57:45):
Term burned by everything.

Speaker 2 (57:46):
This week, well, it just feels like it feels too easy.

Speaker 3 (57:49):
I don't know to you, but it's like, I can't
believe I'm still able to get Pittsburgh here at three
and a half.

Speaker 2 (57:54):
It just feels bizarre.

Speaker 3 (57:55):
I don't know who's betting in Green Bay mins three
and a half other than smart professionals, because the public,
they're taking the threes. They're happy to take the minus threes,
and on this Packers team. So what we really have
to dive into is just what we talked a little
bit about with Tomlin. After his defense gets embarrassed, he
bounces back. You know, the numbers prove that out after

(58:15):
allowing thirty plus points Tomlin's defenses twenty nine twelve and
one against the spreads seventy one percent.

Speaker 2 (58:22):
That's insane. Let the greatest of all time look at
you work when they're at home after a bad defensive
a performance.

Speaker 3 (58:28):
Like that twenty one eight and one seventy two percent
under Tomlin and against the spread.

Speaker 2 (58:34):
So it's like, all right, those are stats who are
looking for that.

Speaker 3 (58:38):
That proves out our point that he gets his defenses
up after those type of games. And a lot of
it's being made in the media about Rogers playing against
his former team. The trends actually don't point to that
being a good spot. Basically every quarterback that's played their
former team failed to cover except Drew Brees, who covered
and beat the Chargers. So I guess historically it shows

(59:01):
that these guys getting their own heads. It's a a
big moment, and it's tough for them to just play
the game, not overthink things and get emotional playing their
former team. But we also have some nice historical stuff
on our side. The Packers just aren't good in Pittsburgh.
Their last six games are owned six the last fifty years,
So last time they won was in nineteen seventy. And

(59:25):
you know, it's crazy to think Pittsburgh the last time
they started that run a beating green Bay at home,
it was Terry Bradshaw beating you know, a Bart star
led team.

Speaker 2 (59:39):
So it's been a long time.

Speaker 3 (59:41):
You're being green Bay, you're betting on something that hasn't
happened in fifty years.

Speaker 2 (59:45):
People.

Speaker 3 (59:45):
So I love all those trends at point to Tomlin,
I love that we talked about with the defense, they
seem to get right in these exact spots, and I
just think our view of Green Bay is right that
they're just something's wrong with them. They're not fully formed either.
The offense is just a little off. They're defense still
isn't right.

Speaker 2 (01:00:01):
I think we're getting a good value here on this
Pittsburgh team that we talked about.

Speaker 3 (01:00:05):
They got embarrassed last week. Their defense got embarrassed. Tomlin
usually has those guys bounced back on the spot. So
trends love it. We love it, can't avoid it. Gonna
hammer this one probably be one of my bigger beats
this week.

Speaker 1 (01:00:17):
Well, let's talk about that. I will review where we
stand heading into Sunday at the end of the show.
But you're bringing up your biggest bets. What are Simon's
biggest bets?

Speaker 2 (01:00:27):
Pull up bose pants and be a man.

Speaker 3 (01:00:30):
Honestly, I'm not going too crazy yet this week because
of all the unknowns with injuries and stuff, like, they're
going a pretty big position in Houston. Just because I
was worried that numbers is gonna shoot up to two
and a half, it really is held pretty strong at
its point.

Speaker 2 (01:00:43):
I'll get there.

Speaker 3 (01:00:44):
On Pittsburgh, I'm really gonna be doing these moneyline favorites,
like I just don't see a world where the Patriots loose.

Speaker 2 (01:00:51):
I don't see a world where the Bills lose to
Andy Dolton, Like the Bills are super desperate.

Speaker 3 (01:00:57):
So this week, just like last week I talked about
through all out of those favorites together, I think we
went five to one or four and one on the
favorite money line. Like it's just it's how it is
right now. People like you can say we're getting lucky, Like, yeah,
I did. I feel like I got lucky with Denver's
money line. Yeah, green Bay's money line, Like that game
came down to a fourth and two where green Bay
went for and they got it and scored a touchdown.

(01:01:18):
Like I know, it's just the way the league is now.
The chalk keeps winning. So I get why you don't
love the spreads this week. To me, it just feels
like the books have gotten really sharp with these lines.
So you know, Denver minus three, I'm gonna take a
position on it will be one of my bigger bets now.
I much rather have a ton of money on Hurt's
money line and Josh Allen's money line than Boone Nicks

(01:01:40):
on the spread. So it is a tough week with
that where it's like I just I don't trust some
of these guys, and I'm having to take positions on
them just because the number is right. But to me,
you know, that Ravens game, if Lamar is cleared, I'm
probably gonna take I know, Chack can't believe. I think
it's a fourteen point swing, but I'm telling you, Cooper
Rush is that bad. I think the more or is
that big of an improvement that offense. And even if

(01:02:03):
his legs aren't fully back, his arm is good enough.
Now say Flowers, Isaiah likely all those pieces there. I
think it's a It's a great matchup for this Ravens
team against a Bears team that you know, incredible round
by this Bears team, But eventually it's gonna catch them.
They just can't keep covering these games, can they chat?
So I I hate that we've missed that. I know
it's your team, but I have to sell the Bears

(01:02:24):
at some point.

Speaker 1 (01:02:24):
I feel like, oh, I'm there, I'm totally there. All right,
let's talk about our before we get to the favorite. Probably,
let's talk about our underdog parlay. My dog blocks your dog,
Your dog blocks my dog.

Speaker 2 (01:02:43):
Steelers, Steelers, Jets.

Speaker 1 (01:02:47):
Jets get the Saints.

Speaker 2 (01:02:52):
This is where it gets tough.

Speaker 1 (01:02:53):
Yeah, this is where it gets a little tricky.

Speaker 2 (01:02:55):
I mean, of course once seven and oh on Thursday
night games? Did you see that stupid stat? Oh? Really, yeah,
it's incredible.

Speaker 1 (01:03:05):
I don't love doing a Thursday night game like people
can't true it is plus one.

Speaker 2 (01:03:09):
I want to get a little taste of that one.

Speaker 1 (01:03:11):
How about the Giants, I can't.

Speaker 2 (01:03:13):
See it, but I'll take the value. Right, it's plus
three thirty. That's a good number.

Speaker 3 (01:03:17):
I don't think they've beaten Eagles and back to back,
so beat him twice in a season since two thousand
and seven.

Speaker 1 (01:03:24):
Carolina can't get there.

Speaker 2 (01:03:28):
I just can't.

Speaker 3 (01:03:29):
I mean, for we're being honest, we should put the
Bears in case Lamar doesn't play.

Speaker 1 (01:03:34):
Yeah, that's a good idea.

Speaker 3 (01:03:36):
Okay, Like again, I have nothing on their number, but
at plus two thirty, if it comes out like people,
Chad thinks it's crazy people in the showm I think
it's crazy.

Speaker 2 (01:03:43):
I just that's how low I am.

Speaker 3 (01:03:45):
A Cooper Rush I just could not get over how
horrible his film has been since he's been a raven.
So if I was at I just took the other backup.
Like just he is doing zero for their offense. He's
just horrible. So yeah, that's that's that, Like could easily
flip if it's not. Lamar could easily see that become
a plus plus three plus three and a half Ravens.

Speaker 1 (01:04:06):
Line favorites parlay Patriots Bills, Chiefs.

Speaker 3 (01:04:15):
Take the Chiefs down to minus five and a half
or minus six and a half, Colts take the Colts
down to minus five and a half minus six and
a half. Gotta put Denver in we both believe in them.

Speaker 1 (01:04:28):
Yeah, so okay, Pats Bills, Chiefs that are not line
of five and a half six and a half, Colts
that are not lining outline of five and a half
six and a half, and then Denver. That is our favorites.
Parlay again the underdog parlay Steelers Jets, Saints Giants. No,

(01:04:50):
who do we say Steelers Jets? Do we say Giants?

Speaker 2 (01:04:54):
No? We did put Giants in the plus three thirty.

Speaker 1 (01:04:57):
Steelers jetge Saints Giants.

Speaker 3 (01:05:00):
And then for survivor, don't hate Patriots this week, don't.
I'm just I'm not gonna do it personally just because
for my contest, I still have the Colts, and I
just I'm trying to go super safe, so survivor.

Speaker 2 (01:05:13):
I am going Colts. Don't hate Patriots. And you know, obviously, if.

Speaker 3 (01:05:19):
You're a wild child, you could do Cincinnati Bengals and
the Flacco.

Speaker 2 (01:05:24):
But I just I can't get there.

Speaker 3 (01:05:25):
I know some pros that are doing it because they're like,
what am I gonna use the Bengals again? I just
I can't. I cannot do it. I cannot trust Flacco.

Speaker 1 (01:05:33):
Who are you doing for Sharper Square?

Speaker 2 (01:05:37):
Uh? I mean, I guess I gotta do. I gotta
take Pittsburgh.

Speaker 3 (01:05:45):
Give me the Steelers plus three or three and a half,
whatever I can get, all.

Speaker 1 (01:05:49):
Right, So Steelers for you there. I am going to
take a ton of options here an ugly week.

Speaker 2 (01:06:02):
I love it, though it's so.

Speaker 1 (01:06:04):
Ugly, like I might have to double up. I think
I have to go with Denver.

Speaker 2 (01:06:11):
Don't do that. Don't put your eggs on one basket.
Why don't you do the Giants? You like them? Seven
and a half? All right, let me double down, don't
do it.

Speaker 1 (01:06:24):
You know what I'm gonna do. It's crazy, but I'm
feeling lucky.

Speaker 2 (01:06:31):
Okay, New York Jets taking the Jets six and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:06:37):
I'm doing it.

Speaker 2 (01:06:38):
I love it.

Speaker 1 (01:06:38):
Look at you New York Jets Sharp versus Square, and
You're taking the Steelers at three and a half. I'm
taking the Jets at six and a half. That's how
we roll on this show. What a crazy, crazy day.
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.
We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning.
Lease drop on an intimate conversation between me and Simon

(01:07:00):
as we make utterly human decisions and regret the rest
of the day. We will be back on Sharper Square
YouTube Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap all
that misery. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square
like this video, subscribe to the channel. Also download us
some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,
use five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

(01:07:21):
Until next time, Love you,

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Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 8 Bets and NBA Betting Scandal Reaction

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 8 Bets and NBA Betting Scandal Reaction