Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 11 Bets: Patriots-Jets, Broncos-Chiefs, Bills-Bucs, Lions-Eagles, Bears-Vikings and more

NFL betting expert Chad Millman is joined by professional sports gambler Simon Hunter to discuss the latest NFL spreads. Together the duo provide initial betting picks and predictions for NFL Week 11 starting with Thursday Night Football, Drake Maye and the New England Patriots vs. Justin Fields and the New York Jets.
Simon and Chad go through Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh looking to return to form against a Cincinnati Bengals team still waiting on the return of Joe Burrow. They also look at Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens taking on the lowly Cleveland Browns, along with Matt Stafford's Los Angeles Rams hosting Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks, and Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills looking to rebound at home against Baker Mayfield at the Tampa Bay Bucs. We hear about Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys squaring off against the dreadful Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football, and the latest European NFL game in Spain between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins. And we learn whether Bo Nix is worth a wager to upset Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in a AFC West showdown. #Volume

0:03:00 - START

0:11:23 - NEW YORK JETS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS TNF

0:14:49 - WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS

0:18:05 - CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

0:21:56 - CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS

0:33:36 - HOUSTON TEXANS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS

0:37:15 - GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS

0:41:45 - CHICAGO BEARS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

0:45:19 - TAMPA BAY BUCS VS. BUFFALO BILLS

0:48:45 - LA CHARGERS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

0:50:45 - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. LA RAMS

0:54:30 - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS

1:00:23 - BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS

1:03:43 - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. DENVER BRONCOS

1:06:16 - DETROIT LIONS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES SNF

1:11:12 - DALLAS COWBOYS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS MNF

--All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet 

Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter.

Follow on all platforms:

https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/

https://x.com/SharporSquare_

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard brought bet.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined
as always by my bff, my companion, my padre, my
co host, professional better Simon Hunter.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Hello, Simon Chat.

Speaker 3 (00:23):
Are we doing buddy?

Speaker 1 (00:24):
I think we're pretty good, you know what I mean?
Although I will say this, you're younger than me, but yeah,
a little bit in only in age, not in spirit.
I think we're complete opposites when it comes to spiritual
age and probably street sense one hundred percent. I believe

(00:47):
everything is sunshiny and roses, and you're know someone's looking
to scam us every single turn. Michael Ray Richardson, the
former All Star point guard mainly for the Knicks and
the Nets from the nineteen eighties, passed away from prostate cancer.

(01:09):
And as someone who loves the NBA and who was deeply,
deeply in love with the NBA in the mid eighties,
Michael Ray Richardson was this sort of sad sack story
where he was so good, so dominant, led the league

(01:31):
in steals three times and then got banned from the
league because this was in the mid eighties where coke
was everywhere and it was the scourge of the leagues.
It was the betting of today for professional sports in general,
but especially the NBA. He got banned from the NBA
after four All Star seasons with the Knicks and the

(01:52):
Nets and one other team. I forgot which one, but
the dude was a baller and it was just like, Wow,
Richardson was seventy and I just have a vision of
him in his very short short Nets uniform like beating
up on the Sixers in the playoffs, who I loved
at the time, and uh, you know, support one out

(02:14):
for Michael Ray.

Speaker 3 (02:15):
It's sad Dorman, a rhyming name like that I would remember,
don't even recognize or remember the name.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
That's amazing.

Speaker 3 (02:21):
He is just truly dust in the win that guy.

Speaker 1 (02:23):
I'm gonna have to educate you on Michael Ray Richardson.
I'm also going to have to tell you, Simon, despite
the controversy and the confusion and our miscommunication with the
audience on the Broncos and thank freaking God, you listen

(02:44):
to all the wise guys and we had a probably
the best conversation we've ever had on a Sunday morning.
We took out the Niners, we put in the Eagles,
the Eagles won. We kind of bet against ourselves because
we had been on the Packers earlier in the week.
We went three and two last week, and our five
favorite picks one with the Eagles, one with the Ravens,

(03:05):
one with the Dolphins, lost with the Cardinals. In box
for the year twenty eight and twenty two through ten
weeks as an Eagles fan, thoughts, comments, concerns, criticisms.

Speaker 3 (03:18):
Yeah, no, just because earlier in the week, I'm on
a position. I'm going to try not to be so
hard on holding ourselves to it because a lot can change,
information can change. And yeah, thank god I spoke up,
because again, you're catching me in a weird time. I've
been up all night. If we were doing the show,
I had been sleeping, I'd probably be a little meanor
to you chat a little harder on our picks and

(03:38):
what we should and shouldn't do on our Sunday morning show.
You catch me in a very vulnerable soft spot that
early in the morning, no sleep, and I just I'm
very agreeable. So thank God, we got off because we
can't have these back to back losing weeks. I have
been brutal, So yeah, I happy. I'm pivot on it.
Gross game. As an Eagles fan, I love these games.

(04:02):
These are the games we're built to win. These are
the exact games we do win. We just pull these
teams into the mud. The funniest thing is just how
people react to these certain games, where again I hate
the conversation of these NFL players saying, well, you never
played the game before, so you shouldn't have an opinion.
But when you hear some people speak, well, the most
basic thing is like they were like, oh, both these

(04:23):
quarterbacks were awful, right, Jordan loved terrible. Hurts was terrible
last night. It's dry air. They can't get griped on
the ball. There's a reason all their passes are sailing
or having bad throws. Like it's just like, oh, it's
an off night. It's like, well, look at the conditions.
And then you look at the field. Guys can't get
their feet under them, right, it's slippery, it's slick. A
lot of those things add up to be a really stupid,

(04:43):
low scoring, sloppy game. On the other side, both offenses
just had terrible luck, right, couldn't convert. And you know,
we talked a little about Green Bay, the Tucker Craft stuff.
That was a real issue, right, And we talked around
the week. I said, maybe we're overlooking this whole Tucker
Craft And you saw that that safety for Jordan Love
on third down or key key downs, it's just not there.

(05:04):
It wasn't there for them. They were nothing to scheme
up where that guy has been such a difference to
making for that offense. And yeah, that Eagles team definitely
stole one there, right, But I said it before the season.
It's hard to complain as an Eagles fan if you're
in the greatest era of our you know, football dynasty,
seven years too super Bowls and after a Super Bowl

(05:26):
I thought there would be a falloff. I think anyone did, right.
If you're looking at this Eagles team, a lot of
injury luck, base, had a really young defensive front, and
you know, Saquon has not been himself. The Madden cover
SI cover is the curse is real. Still number one
seed right now in ren at Week eleven in the NFC.
So pretty pretty crazy as an Eagles fan that this

(05:48):
team I have so much doubt about the offensive Coiner
or all of it. I can't help but be impressed
with this team. Somehow is the one seed right netwhere
there is still lingering doubts about this offense.

Speaker 2 (05:59):
Two things.

Speaker 1 (06:00):
Number one, I never think of you as vulnerable or
agreeable on a Sunday morning.

Speaker 2 (06:06):
So if that is you vulnerable and agreeable.

Speaker 3 (06:10):
Is as nice as you get, Chad, God.

Speaker 1 (06:12):
Help any future relationships that you have, because that is
just going to be just plaining messy number one.

Speaker 2 (06:22):
Number two. Number two, how do you.

Speaker 3 (06:25):
Know that was very Chad has never had a brother.
You can tell up on that right there. Chad is
very soft people.

Speaker 2 (06:31):
Number two, don't get defensive on me. I can criticize you.

Speaker 3 (06:36):
I take off kid gloves with you. Hey, we got
to take out four nights put the Eagles in with
kid gloves. And that's me being hard on you. You're unreal.

Speaker 1 (06:42):
Who said you were? I didn't say you were being
hard on me. You said that was you being vulnerable.
I was like, yeah, I'm very mp with you. Hey,
I gotta take this team out.

Speaker 3 (06:50):
Wasn't mean? Did say anything? Man was very gentle about.

Speaker 2 (06:52):
Why would it have to be mean?

Speaker 3 (06:55):
Regardless I would have to because sometimes you're disagreeable in
that you were like, no, I want to be on
this side. But luckily you were along.

Speaker 2 (07:02):
For the ride, so maybe I was agreeable.

Speaker 3 (07:05):
That's true. Maybe number two.

Speaker 1 (07:09):
If you know the SI cover Jinks, then you got
to know who Michael Ray Richardson is because they basically
were born at the same time. Their legends were born
at the same time. Listen Simon. More importantly, it's veterans.

Speaker 3 (07:21):
This guy's getting tons of air time today.

Speaker 1 (07:23):
He deserves it. It's Veterans Day. A sincere thanks to
all of our veterans, those who have served, those who
do serve. It's a privilege to live in a country
where we have people volunteering. So thank you to all
the veterans on Veterans Day.

Speaker 3 (07:42):
Back to back World War champions, best military in the world,
Thank you for your service. Everybody cook at.

Speaker 2 (07:48):
His crowd on its feet, what a tribute. This is
our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slave.

Speaker 1 (07:53):
Make sure to check out the Sunday am show if
you want the games. That will be our official five
after we've had a chance to review the line moves
and the injuries. There's definitely been lots of moves on
Sundays this season, as you've seen in some controversy. We
had so make sure you pay attention to that one.
Don't forget. You can get the shows on Sharper Square
YouTube like this video subscribe while you're at it. You

(08:16):
can also subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple Pods, Spotify,
wherever you get your pots. Okay, Thursday Night Football eight fifteen,
Amazon Prime, New York Jets at the New England Patriots. Boy,
this number is big, eleven and a half for the Patriots.

Speaker 2 (08:33):
Look, the Jets are just a.

Speaker 1 (08:34):
Bad team, and I think right now, coming off that
win against the Browns where everyone sort of believed that
was the spot where you had to bet the Jets
as we did, whatever work for them against Cleveland in
the perfect spot for their defense to be motivated against
a lower level QB will not work against a very

(08:55):
good QB and a brilliant coach in Mike Vrabel. Last week,
Justin Fields went six of eleven for fifty four yards.
Forty two of those yards came on a screen pass
to Breeze Hall that he ran for a touchdown. The
strength of this team is their rushing offense, and I
put strength in quotes.

Speaker 2 (09:17):
Here's the problem.

Speaker 1 (09:19):
The Pats strength on defense against the run top five
across every advanced metric, first overall in some of the
more superficial categories. And even though their past defense is suspect,
I'm almost done with my soluquis here, even though their
past defense is suspect. I just gave you the justin

(09:40):
field stats and Garrett Wilson is out for three to
four weeks. Krippoor, Christian Gonzales, He's not gonna have anyone
to guard this week. I'll be clear, I'll be clear.
This will not be a Final five pick. I'm gonna
be clear. No, but I'm having a hard time getting
to the Jets even with a massive, massive number.

Speaker 3 (10:01):
Come on, we know the Jets are gonna win this
one out right again? Right? Can we bet the Jets
money line three weeks in a row, Chad, it's been
good to us. We're running a heater right now, the
Jets money line.

Speaker 2 (10:09):
Come on, No, no, no, no, come on.

Speaker 3 (10:14):
We're being real. This is the definition of a letdown
trap spot. But we been saying this for about a month,
this Newland team. So that's what I mean, yeah, this
is it. They should win this by thirty points. They
are better across the board. Everything they do to well
defensively is a weakness for this Jets team. So yeah,
I'll I'm happy that we're avoiding it. I'll be on
the Jets steam. I know plenty of guys. We're gonna

(10:36):
be on New England. No, plenty of pros already taking
positions on New England. Like you said that number ten,
it's gonna push up to eleven and a half now.
So I hate it. But it's just New England again.
They're fans. They shouldn't care what someone like me thinks.
They have possibility in the one seed. They're just not
that good of a team. They have so many weaknesses
that they just keep overcoming and having sane QB play

(10:58):
and it's just all hitting right now. So they'll keep
getting away from it. They're gonna get caught. I mean,
they are going to get caught, and this is going
to go the other way. But I get why you're hesitant.
It's why would we just tried to stand in front
of this team last week and got demolished. I get
what you don't want to do it again. But to me,
this is just yeah, you gotta just bet the Jets Lafe.
It's bumped up too much. It doesn't matter who's on

(11:20):
the field of this team. Like last week, they had
no right cover in that number. We said they had
two special teams touchdown. So if you want to fade
this Jets team, it's a Thursday night. We always say
the favorite, especially home teams. It does well long term.
It's just skewed that way. But man, I can't get
I can't get over how big of a number this
is for Drake Madi try to cover. It's mass a
lot of points.

Speaker 2 (11:40):
It's a massive, massive number. Let's go across the pond.
We're going to Madrid.

Speaker 1 (11:45):
We're going to a city where most people when the
game starts are getting home from dinner at nine point
thirty in the morning. We got Washington at Miami, and
as producer Matt Mitchell pointed out, if there's ever been
a game in a city where a team has a
chance to just completely disappear into the nightlife when their

(12:11):
season is lost and their coach make it fired, it
is this Miami Dolphins team, who are currently two and
a half point favorites. Huge swing in the game, by
the way, because the game is one and a half
on Sunday night, even after the about while the Lions
were getting demolished, and it's swung to the to Miami

(12:34):
minus two and a half, so huge four point swing.
Are the Commodoores, the Commodoor's great band, the Commodoors, the
Commanders such a dreadful team against the run that Devon
Han can again run for one thousand yards.

Speaker 3 (12:54):
I'm shocked you didn't sing there, good on you, Chet,
good on you.

Speaker 2 (12:58):
I would have, but I couldn't think of any.

Speaker 3 (13:00):
Matt Mitchell's got to jump then he would know, dude, great,
that's why you're the best. Matt. Probably supposed to be
the Commanders, but it's under three if it's gonna be
Marriot again with all these injuries that they've had, washing

(13:20):
in their defense is just atrocious. Like you said, it's
I've been killing us for not faitting this Commander's team
this whole time, like we just keep every week we've
been I've been going against him somehow we have not
taken them in the contest, and every week it's just
they're just terrible. Like the coaching staff. I think the
head coach that he's taken over defensive duties. Yeah, so

(13:42):
you know, will that changed much. I just don't know
if they have the pieces. They just have had so
many injuries when they're already an older team with a
lot of weaknesses. So, yeah, it's under three, I guess
I'll take it. But we always say we don't. We
don't want to bet to a let alone to it
as a favorite on the road. So happy to avoid
this game, and just like one else, I'll be there
seven am, eight am and be like, well, game starts

(14:04):
an hour and a half. I gotta bet some side
and I'll probably end up on Miami. So I hate
this one, but got to take a side.

Speaker 2 (14:08):
Yeah, to me, it was anything.

Speaker 1 (14:10):
If Miami is still under three, I would take it
because I do think in terms of sort of if
this is a spirit Bowl, the spirit for Miami after
beating Buffalo is a little bit higher, they might be
able to see some opportunities versus I think the commanders

(14:31):
like we got a backup quarterback, We've got a defense
that can't stop anybody. They're geriatric, like, we got nothing
going on here. So I know the professionals, I know
they're going to do the best they can, but I
think that the scheme favors Miami over Washington.

Speaker 3 (14:45):
Yeah, shockingly only had Miami minus one year, so I
think that's what most guys. It's like. Shockingly, this is
probably a lot closer than people realize matchup wise. So
we're very public in our pick, but we both agree
it's about the number, the fact that it's under a
field goal.

Speaker 1 (15:00):
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Simon, this line opened at five and
a half. It has moved down to four and a half.
I'm gonna be totally honest. This was nearly Chat's choice. Wow,
I bet Cincinnati at plus five and a half. Couple
things here. Number one, Joe Flacco just being healthier and

(15:22):
having these receivers against the Steelers diminished.

Speaker 2 (15:28):
Secondary, they just they can't seem to figure it out.

Speaker 1 (15:31):
They had that one good game where they tried to
play zone against the Colts a few weeks ago, and
you know, they moved Jalen Ramsey to safety. But this team,
like defensively is not in a good spot. And I
know we now got the Steelers look terrible and so
you know, maybe I'm buying into fading the Steelers here,

(15:52):
but this is really a bet on Joe Flacco and
that receiving corps just being able to score whenever they
want and keep this game closer than the line reflects.
The line has moved to four and a half at
hard Rock, so I bettert a five and a half.
It's moved in that direction. It's one of the reasons
why I didn't make a catch choice is because it's
got down to four and a half.

Speaker 3 (16:13):
The Cincinnati Bengals game roaring back, I think most of degree.
Why is this not three three and a half? These
two teams already played this season Bengals one thirty three
to thirty one. I know it was a Thursday game
and weird things happen on Thursday. But I don't know
about you, but this is giving me a ton of

(16:36):
the same vibes for that's forty nine ers Rams game,
Like the forty nine Ers on a Thursday beat That
Rams team stole that game. It's given me a lot
of vibes here where it feels too easy and I'm
a little worried about this Bengal side. But I agree
with you if you want to take the number five
and a half, that feels like that's a sharp number.
It's moving that way. Maybe I'll get there on the

(16:58):
Steelers brow City right now, chat like, I want to
be in the Bengals, but I'm just worried there's something
I'm missing here because I just this line feels way off.
I don't get why this is not three three and
a half. Like you just said, Pittsburgh's defense, we've said, all, yeah,
they're super suspect. The only time they perform well is
and they get these insane turnovers. So not good to
be banking a defense with. You need a ton of
turnover luck. And then on the flip side, Rogers has

(17:21):
just been very questionable. But this is a great matchup him,
especially if Trey Hendrick's still out. I no pressure type
of game. I mean, we haven't really beat him up start,
but we bullyed that guy coming the season. He had
one good week one and he has been nothing since.

Speaker 1 (17:36):
Further, Oh my god, he's been. He's been a meme.
He's become like every single week someone is finding a
video of him doing something where he just doesn't know
what he's doing.

Speaker 3 (17:45):
He doesn't know what he's doing.

Speaker 1 (17:46):
And that's a classic horrible pick, classic Bengals pick. We
said all like, like, as I told.

Speaker 3 (17:52):
You, who gets four sacks in college?

Speaker 1 (17:54):
Before the season, an NFL scouts said to me, there's
nobody in college who's game planning to keep your best
player out of the action. If he's not getting plays,
it's not because he's a freak athlete who they just
can't figure out how to use. It's because he doesn't
know how to play football. And that's what we're seeing
with Stewart right now. And yeah, that obviously, I'm making

(18:18):
a bet behind the Bengals keeping it being able to
score every time they want. I'm not expecting the Bengals
defense to stop Aaron Rodgers. I'm expecting him to look
like he's thirty one years old in this game.

Speaker 2 (18:29):
But I just think that on.

Speaker 3 (18:31):
Joe Flacker to keep up like he had the previous
matchup again thirty three to thirty one the first time
they played, maybe we should be looking more towards the
over here even playing aside.

Speaker 1 (18:40):
To be honest, that's interesting, interesting, all right, Carolina visiting Atlanta.
Carolina is a three and a half point underdog. Let
me ask you this question, Simon Hunter, are you ready
if you're a fan, which one of these teams.

Speaker 2 (18:53):
Do you feel better about going into the future.

Speaker 1 (18:56):
Would you rather right now be a fan of Bryce
Dave Knalys and the Carolina Panthers. Would you rather be
a fan of Raheem Morris, Michael Pennix and the Atlanta Falcons.

Speaker 4 (19:10):
Would I don't know about the head coach, but Atlanta's
foundation I really like, like you have the receiver, you
have the running backs, and what we think is potentially
the quarterback.

Speaker 3 (19:24):
Like Penis has a great arm, He's got a real
arm talent. It's can you add the other tools? Right?
He just we always keep saying it's I know people
want them to be better, and you can kind of
close your eyes a little bit with this Falcons team,
or they have a couple of games where it's like, oh,
they could have won that one, they could have stole
that game. There, What are they three and six this year?
So yeah, it's I get if their fan base is

(19:45):
down on it. But like we said, it's just hard
to be patient as a fan. You gotta be patient
with Penix. He's just he's doing things that he looks
like a first year quarterback. He's just inconsistent, makes you
really dumb throws and he's just locked in on Drake London,
which isn't an issue because Drake London so good, but
you're gonna you're not gonna win games that way, right.
You can't just focus feet on a guy, especially on
third downs of defense. They're gonna do that. So for me,

(20:08):
the Panthers, I still I don't know. I once we
love the Panthers and Bryce Young, he's he's just not
looking like Bryce Young.

Speaker 2 (20:17):
He's kind of regressed the past couple of weeks, I know.

Speaker 3 (20:19):
And it's like painful to watch because it's like you
want to say, well, it's the coach, maybe it's the
past protection. It's like, no, it's it's him. He's not
making the right reads. He's got guys open certain spots
where he's not seen and comes back down to the
height stuff. I know, it's it sounds lazy, but it's true.
There's a reason most of these teams won six four
to six five quarterbacks guys like him. He doesn't see

(20:40):
that open guy in the flat because he can't see
over his left tackle. So I don't know, Chad. If
I was a fan for this year, i'd be excited.
If I'm a Panthers fan, because you can kind of
lie your something to think we could be the wildcard
team and Bryce could keep improving. But yeah, I would
be a little worried about him and what he's gonna
be like going forward. Were Pennix, I still haven't seen

(21:02):
enough to really make a judgment call in that. So, uh,
I like it landing here too. I don't know about
you in this matchup, but I thought this on number
is really interesting. The fact that they opened this a
mystere and a half. Yeah, yeah, you like you like
a lander or now.

Speaker 2 (21:15):
I actually wanted to get your opinion. I couldn't.

Speaker 1 (21:18):
I couldn't land anywhere, it feels like because the reason
I asked the question is because when I went through it,
you know, you and I, when we both eyeball these
things before we even do any work, we sort of
instinctively say, who do I like here? And my instinct
was to like Carolina at three and a half getting

(21:38):
the hook in the division, I think two teams.

Speaker 3 (21:40):
Well with the pros. I know a couple of pros
who right away Sunday they grabbed that. So but it
hasn't moved.

Speaker 1 (21:46):
But it hasn't moved, which is interesting, right because like
normally these lines we've seen with some other division games
that opened to three, they've moved to two and a
half or they moved to three and a half. This
one was at three and a half and it's just
stayed and it's the only one that has stayed of
the Division games. And so I wanted to like Carolina,
but I think that's because we always like Carolina and

(22:07):
we want to believe in Bryce Young and we think
we've seen something in the way he plays that we've
actually won money on, and you know, and so but look,
he was terrible against the Packers and they won because
he made some good plays down the stretch.

Speaker 2 (22:20):
But really it was Rico daubdle.

Speaker 1 (22:22):
Right last week against the Saints, he was truly awful,
Like he made bad plays, the same things he had
done against the Packers, only they didn't overcome them against
the Saints, and so that was pretty disconcerting. And it
looked to me like he was regressing a little bit.
And the things that had made him magical when he's
stepping up in the pocket and being accurate and hitting

(22:43):
guys that keeps them in the game, he was just
throwing picks and he was fumbling and like not playing
like a professional quarterback who's on a winning team. And
then I look at the Falcons and if you squint,
not just on the offensive side, like you can see
them getting to the ball defensively, there's just a couple

(23:04):
of plays away, like some bad calls away meeting schematically
that let the Colts stay in it. They should have
killed the Colts in that game. It shouldn't have been
It shouldn't have been a game. And so that's when
I started to lean to the Falcons.

Speaker 3 (23:21):
Yeah, and it's a game that I just earmarked right
away because of my model had a two and a half.
So it's like, Okay, I'm already gonna like the Panthers.
My model likes the Panthers as well, and it probably
is going to be something I'm a little blind through
right now, which is we're giving a lot of praise
to Atlanta here. Let's make no mistake. This is a
defense just gave up what two hundred and fifty yards
rushing to doctor David. Yeah, and you could say, well

(23:43):
that was flicky. Well go watch that Miami game against
eight Chan where they struggled. So you're seeing a little
bit of pattern that when they face really dominant running backs,
their defense does struggle and their offense seems not to be
able to keep up with it. But you know, and
landing here is on a slot. That's why it's like
I really wanted to be on the Panthers. But just situationally,

(24:03):
they win that Bills game, everyone thinks, you know, that's
a win that's going to send them to another level.
That's a young Atlanta team. They've lost four straight. I mean,
tough road, but forty nine ers Miami New England Colts,
they've dropped them. You would expect this team to get
right here at home against the Panthers. But like Chad's

(24:24):
saying here, maybe I should trust my model and trust
my instincts here. This is a great matchup. Rico data
on this Carolina Panthers team to take the three and
a half. But I just I don't get why this
number is what it is, because to me, if they
opened it two and a half three, that made more
sense for this matchup than what they're putting here, which
is they're thinks they think the Falcons are a much
better team than the Panthers. So and just see what
the market will do with this one. Like Chad said,

(24:46):
if you want the early read with the pros, they're
on the Panthers supposed three and a half. I'll be
patient here, maybe take a position on the Falcons later.

Speaker 1 (24:53):
Yeah, we're gonna We're gonna hold off on this one.
I'm going to see how the market plays it. Let's
do a quick word from our friends at hard Rock.
Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor,
hard Rock Bet. It's that time of year when every
day feels like a big game day. You've got Pro football,
college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey, it's all happening, and
on hard Rock Bet, there's always something to bet on.

(25:15):
If you haven't tried your first bet on hard Rock
Bet yet, there's still time for you to get one
hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.

Speaker 2 (25:21):
If you win.

Speaker 1 (25:22):
Just place a five dollar bet and if it hits,
you get not only your winnings, but one hundred and
fifty dollars in extra bonus bets. And if you're not
sure what to place your first bet on, check out
the hard Rock Bet Stats Hub.

Speaker 2 (25:35):
It's loaded with trends.

Speaker 1 (25:36):
Streaks, and stats to help guid your picks. Numbers don't lie,
and neither does the data in there. Here's one that
stood out to me. Green Bay's Josh Jacobs has scored
a touchdown in thirteen straight games against NFC opponents. Check
out the stats hub now, get the edge and bet
with confidence. The hard Rock Bet sports book app is
the only legal sports book for whenever you're on Flora,

(26:00):
and it's also live in Arizona, Ohio, New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois.

Speaker 2 (26:05):
And Colorado, coming soon to more states. Two plus. Hard
Rock Bet.

Speaker 1 (26:10):
Offers new promos every single day, so whenever you're listening,
just open the app and check out what you've got
any day of the week. Download the hard Rock Bet
app and make your first deposit payable in bonus bets,
not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida.

Speaker 2 (26:26):
In Florida offered.

Speaker 1 (26:27):
By Seminal hard Rock Digital, ELC and all other states,
must be twenty one and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight
three three playwise in Indiana, if you or someone you
know as a gambling problem and wants help, call one

(26:48):
eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler on Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio,
Tennessee or Virginia Houston at Tennessee.

Speaker 2 (26:57):
Tennessee is now a seven point underdog at hard Rock Bet.

Speaker 1 (27:01):
This had been seven and a half and it still
is in most places. You know what I realized last
week when I was putting together my notes in the
script yesterday, how nice it was not to have to
think about Tennessee last week. Agreed, truly, it was amazing.
A lot of questions here. Who's playing quarterback for the Texans.
We don't know yet yet, I mean will know. You
know the status of C. J. Stroud later this week

(27:23):
as he goes through the concussion protocol. Jeffrey Simmons, I
don't think is going to play for the Texans. And
when I think about the Titans, like the last time
we bet against them, and we rarely have in the contest,
was two weeks ago against the Chargers, and they burned
us with a punt return and a pick six and

(27:45):
then they got a you know, backdoor field goal. So
I kind of want to go back to not having
to think about the Texans, especially when I don't know
who's playing quarterback and a team that is significantly offensive challenged.

Speaker 3 (27:59):
Yeah, I love the Texas here. I'm shocked this numbers
come down, So I'm interested to talk to pros this
week see why they're taking this Titans team. But just
a nightmare match for the Titans, as if these teams
didn't play earlier in the year. And I think the
score was twenty six nothing or thirty nothing the Houston one.
I guess it's really yeah, And it's it's just about
the matchups where it's like, what can this Titans team

(28:22):
offensively do to beat this Texans team matchup and scheme wise,
and I just can't find one. So so I think
they get shut out again. No, CJ. I think we'll
get one of them. They'll steal one, maybe get a touchdown,
and you know, like you said, it's it's interesting they
hung this line when no one knows who the quarterback
is going to be. Where I feel like even if
they hung six five and a half, they would have

(28:43):
got the same amount of action they hung at seven
and a half. And it's all Titans money, all of it.
Like I'm looking right now out a bunch of different books,
it's just all Titans money. So I don't know. Maybe
I'll just be patient and I'll get the better number
of the Texans. But if this sets six and a half,
I'm gonna have a real time hard time avoiding this game.
And maybe I'll convintion you come Sunday for six a
half in the contest. But Titans, I don't know how

(29:06):
they score. And the other side, Houston wants to run
the ball. Guess who's horrible against the run, the Tennessee Titans.

Speaker 2 (29:13):
Tennessee Titans.

Speaker 3 (29:14):
Right, Yeah, we'll see Jeffrey Simmons is back. If he's not,
I don't think he's back. It's gonna be another great matchup,
great spot for this Texans team. So yeah, it's I'm
gonna go back and I'll rewatch that Houston game for
early year. But I just remember they fled out dominated
across the board with something stupid like nine or six
nothing at a half. In the second half, they just ran
it down the throats of Tennessee and Tennessee couldn't do

(29:35):
anything offensively, So it just feels a good match for
this Texans team here coming off such an emotional win,
and keep those vibes rolling.

Speaker 2 (29:42):
I don't think Simmons is going to be back. We'll
updated on Thursday.

Speaker 1 (29:45):
But when I was checking the reports yesterday, most of
them said they didn't expect him back until week twelve.
So that changes that. Listen, you know me on Sunday mornings, I.

Speaker 2 (29:56):
Am easy, easy.

Speaker 1 (29:59):
To by the way, that might be a common door
song too, and that's a great callback and we didn't
even plan that.

Speaker 2 (30:06):
That was solo Lionel, Richie, Chad, come on, get it together,
let's go, Mack.

Speaker 1 (30:11):
I don't need a ton of persuading on betting against
the Titans. I had a little bit of trepidation just
because I saw the number move and I don't know
who the quarterback is. But if you feel that strongly
about it, I'm gonna be all in on it. I
might make it my biggest bet of the year.

Speaker 3 (30:27):
I hope not. I wouldn't do that. If it's Davis.

Speaker 1 (30:30):
Mills, all right, well we're gonna put a hold on
Houston minus seven.

Speaker 2 (30:32):
We'll see who the players are Green.

Speaker 1 (30:35):
Bay at the New York Giants plus seven and a half.
Since the news of Brian Dayball being fired, since the
Green Bay Packers put up seven points at home and
had a myriad of miscues against the Philadelphia Eagles, this
number has come down from eight and a half to
seven and a half. And I don't know about you,

(30:58):
I don't have a ton of feelings about Brian David
I can't tell if like he was just an arrogant
dude or a football dude or a guy who is
getting screwed. I think it's mostly Brian Dayball getting screwed.
Forget about his ability to coach and scheme and get
along with, you know, people on the coaching staff and

(31:20):
the players don't seem to.

Speaker 2 (31:21):
Like him very much.

Speaker 1 (31:22):
He seems to be a little bit of a manage
the star and not manage anybody else kind of coach.

Speaker 2 (31:28):
But boy, the videos that are.

Speaker 1 (31:32):
Coming out about Joe Shine and his reactions to Jackson's
dart and how he didn't want to take him, and
how he got rid of Saquon when Brian Daball wanted
to keep him, and how he signed Daniel Jones to
one hundred and forty million dollars deal. Like he seems
a little easily in this whole situation.

Speaker 3 (31:52):
I mean, you come across all these people on life
where you're just like, how does this guy have and
maintain these jobs? And he's one of those people.

Speaker 2 (31:57):
It's like he's managing up. In the corporate world, it's
called managing up.

Speaker 3 (32:02):
Okay, well he's doing it. Definition We have a couple
of people like that in my world as well, but uh,
they always get theirs. I don't. Hopefully it goes the
same in the business world. But I look at this
move as I guess a positive for the Giants. I mean,
this guy is blown. Was a four double digit fourth
quarter leads this season with the Giants. Yeah, had to do.
If you're the owner, you have to show your fan

(32:22):
base you have a pulse and make that move. So yeah,
just burn it all down, get rid of him, get
rid of the GM start over. Like we joke with Dart,
tons and tons of talents, no brains. Guy is a
full on idiot when it comes to protecting himself. I
mean someone joked I think it's true. I think he
has three concussions this year, Like, well.

Speaker 1 (32:44):
I think he's been checked for three concussions. He's been
checked for four check for multiple concussions.

Speaker 3 (32:49):
Yeah, but it's still like, I mean, he just needs
to understand he's got so much talent. The league is
set up to protect yourself if you're a quarterback, especially
as a runner. It's just crazy the stuff he put
himself into. So I am all over green Bay here,
especially if this might be Russell Wilson. Oh my god,
and we've seen it. Yeah, Russell Wilson could have a

(33:11):
flute game where it all puts it all together. This
is ain't it? Like? This is a defensive front on
Green Bay that can get pressure on a quarterback. They
have a lot of guys that can win one on ones.
And the flip side Lafloor with this Packers team, that
was kind of an oddity. I mean, we both talked
about Green Bay. He doesn't lose back to back, so
that was the first time they lost back to back

(33:31):
games in like two years. And Lafloor when he does
lose back to back, he really gets his team right
in that third game. It just we always give him
praise for be such a good coach. This seems like
a little floor type of game. Type of spot, So
I get with people in their doubts with love. I
like I said, I think it was the dry air
quarterbacks and able to grip the ball, and we saw
a ton of drops too from receivers. Just was really

(33:53):
off night all together, where I think this is a
good bounce back spot for this Backers team. So scary number.
I get it like we're bad, not a Packers team
that is not proven to be worthy of this type
of number. But I think it's got a Russell Wilson
line that it could be announced it to RUSS. So
I'm going to get ahead of it. See if I
can get this now, and if it is RUSS, see
if this number gets up to nine or ten.

Speaker 2 (34:13):
Yeah, the number has been moving in the opposite direction.

Speaker 1 (34:16):
The other thing that I think about with this game,
Matt Laflor might want to give Josh Jacobs the ball.

Speaker 2 (34:23):
Many many, many many times.

Speaker 1 (34:25):
And the Giants' weakness, and we saw it again last
week against the.

Speaker 2 (34:28):
Bears, was being able to stop the rush.

Speaker 1 (34:30):
I mean they are thirty first, thirty second in the
league anyway you slice it, so it does play to
the strength and we saw last night even the Packers
they continue to try to run, they continue to try
to run. That's some dubious play calls, I think. But
when Josh Jacobs had the ball, he was somewhat effective
and obviously got into the end zone. So I think

(34:53):
it's a strength against weakness as well, regardless of Russell Wilson.

Speaker 2 (34:58):
But it is a big number, big big number.

Speaker 1 (35:04):
Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, commodoors did not sing that song.

Speaker 2 (35:12):
It's a three at hard rock. It's kind of been
bouncing around. It was at.

Speaker 1 (35:16):
Three, it went down to two and a half, it
went back to three. I'm talking about the Vikings being
three point Favoritesier. I love your take on this because
my lean is Minnesota when it's under a field goal.

Speaker 2 (35:29):
I have not bet it yet.

Speaker 1 (35:31):
I'm trying to get out of my head about JJ
McCarthy and trying to get out of my head about
my Bears euphoria. I was talking to my buddy Andy
last night, who I grew up with outside Chicago and
Holland Park and also.

Speaker 2 (35:44):
Went to Indiana with me.

Speaker 1 (35:47):
We don't even know how to react to having a
dominant college football team and a foot professional football team
that is bringing us joy and so I'm trying to
see the full picture for the Bears and not just
what they're doing in the final two minutes when the

(36:09):
whole game is breaking down and Caleb gets to use
his athleticism. And I'm also trying to get over JJ
McCarthy and just say I think the Vikings at two
and a half are the right size show.

Speaker 3 (36:21):
Yeah, I think we have the avoided. Then I think
I'm too biased as well with this Bears team. They've
just been winning me a lot of money, you are, yeah,
And I've just been betting them, especially their money line
every week, where it's like they've just been good to me.
They just find ways to win. They're a very competitive team,
and I love the books hung this line of what
they did right because their first matchup Vikings first week,

(36:42):
go on the road and they win right by three
against this Bears team. So the books are just like,
we'll let you guys decide, right, We're gonna play it
right right where you just said. If it's two and
a half, how do you not tempt to take Minnesota there?
It feels a good number, a plus three. Same for
the Bears. It's like these teams are so evenly matched
I just think it's priced right. I don't really see

(37:03):
value either side. So if I have to make us
a pick on this side, I'm gonna go Bears. I
just like the way they're playing right now, the vibes
of the team. On the flip side, I think we
both just don't trust JJ like we don't. That's why
on script, he's great that first series, you know, first fifteen,
we always say no issue there, But after that, I
just don't think him or chaos here and sink we're
Kayleb Williams. He's not as great on the first fifteen,

(37:27):
but he gets better as a game goes along, especially
the run game. For this, Bears then gets better as
a game goes along. So yeah, I just at the three,
I gotta take Bears.

Speaker 1 (37:35):
Not that I want to be nitpicky about the greatest
football franchise in NFL history, but he is still wildly inaccurate,
and sometimes the reason is Kaylee.

Speaker 2 (37:48):
Yeah, the reasons why they have to have.

Speaker 1 (37:51):
These dramatic moments is because he's still missing the easy,
wide open throws. There were at least there were three
of them on Sunday late in the game.

Speaker 2 (38:03):
One of them Colston Lovelin caught it was behind him
as he was rushing across the middle.

Speaker 1 (38:07):
One of them was wide open Roma Dunese and it
just was an overthrow. Another one I can't remember who
it was. It might have been Luther Burden just didn't
connect on it and it wasn't anything but Caleb not
making a good throw.

Speaker 2 (38:21):
That is killing me.

Speaker 1 (38:23):
Do you get extra credit for making the spectacular but
not making the easy? But you win because of the spectacular.

Speaker 3 (38:31):
Just win, baby, That's all matters to me.

Speaker 1 (38:34):
It's interesting. I'm about process as much as them about results.
Tampa Bay visiting the Buffalo Bills.

Speaker 2 (38:42):
The Buffalo Bills.

Speaker 1 (38:44):
Are five and a half point favorites. I'm going to
say something here. I feel like the oh interesting, you
want to say something?

Speaker 3 (38:51):
No, I said say it?

Speaker 2 (38:52):
Oh, I think the Bucks.

Speaker 1 (38:54):
Are getting dinged here more for losing than the Bills
are for losing, because it feels weird to me this
line is five and a half.

Speaker 2 (39:01):
It should be lower.

Speaker 3 (39:02):
I agree. So that's what scaring me off of it
a little bit, where it's like, just like this, since
the game, what are we not seeing here? Chad? Are
we too in love with this Bucks team? Because they
were so good to us earlier in the year, had
so many incredible wins when they were priced right, and
we're covering for us. Do not get this line at all.
This feels like I respect to this Bills team that

(39:23):
has not deserved the respect with this big where's that
secondary is suspect? I feel like Baker is going to
be able to get his even with these nameless guys
bizarre number. So yeah, like, let's be paid on this one.
I'll see what I can hear and talk to people
as you say here right now. I love the Bucks,
especially at five and a half, So something I must

(39:44):
be missing here. This just feels like such a good number.
And you know we all know the deal Josh Allen,
if you can find it and play in himself, Yeah,
they should roll here. This is a good match of
room against this Bucks team. But I feel like the
Bucks defense and embarrassing as it was last week against
the run. Don't you think the Boys would bounce back
here the following week like it was such a bad

(40:04):
loss for them. Where I know the Bills they can say, well,
we just had an embarrassing on ourselves. They don't have
the guys. You don't have a Vita vet. You just
I think they also another rookie to an injury this
past week, which is just it's never any of this
Pills and they just had a horrible injury look to
a defense. I couldn't afford to keep losing guys. So
I don't love this match for this Pills team. But
I let me be patient here, make sure I'm not
missing something before I really put a lot of money

(40:25):
to this Buck side.

Speaker 2 (40:26):
Well, here's what's interesting.

Speaker 1 (40:27):
You just mentioned the rush game against the Bucks for
the Patriots. The Bucks gave up I think one hundred
and sixty six yards rushing in that game, one hundred
and twenty five of them or on those.

Speaker 2 (40:39):
Two broken plays.

Speaker 1 (40:40):
So are we looking at the Bucks defense as having
had a bad game or did the Bucks defense have
two bad plays?

Speaker 3 (40:49):
And but Cook's that same style as Henderson. He can
break it. Yeah, but.

Speaker 2 (40:57):
You know to that degree, it's hard to break big runs.

Speaker 3 (41:03):
It's hard out understand.

Speaker 1 (41:07):
So I don't automatically think just because they've got James
Cook that he's gonna be able to do the same
things that Trevion Henderson did. I might have to lean
into this Bucks defense playing as it normally does. The
one thing that I can't get over, Bucky Irving might
just be much more important to this offense than we
even gave him credit for. And we gave him a

(41:27):
lot of credit, but it's not the same team since
he's been out with the foot and the shoulder and
he's not expected.

Speaker 2 (41:33):
To play this week. Todd Bowles said.

Speaker 1 (41:35):
Yesterday he did not think Bucky Irving was going to play,
and I think that's making a much bigger difference for
Sead White is just a different player and as magical
as Baker is, if he doesn't have Bucky Bucky Irving,
and hee's down Mike Evans and he's down Chris Godwin,
even with the offensive line getting better, is there something

(41:55):
in the sauce that's missing that we're not seeing. I
agree that's fair La Chargers at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Speaker 2 (42:06):
Look, it's when we fade the Chargers.

Speaker 1 (42:08):
I don't know to tell you, like we we missed
betting on the Chargers last week when we knew we
should have.

Speaker 2 (42:14):
Been betting on the Chargers. Uh, And we now would
normally want to bet on.

Speaker 1 (42:21):
The Chargers as road favorites because they looked so good
last week, and we're like, all right, they figured it out.
You make quick passes, you don't let the offensive line
become a liability, and then we would bet them and
they'll go on the road as favorites and they'll loose
and they won't make us happy. So I'm just saying
right now, I don't even care who they're playing. We're

(42:42):
fading the Chargers.

Speaker 3 (42:43):
Well they shockingly they've been winning on the road. They
just have not been covering for us. So you're right
they they've burned this exact spot twice.

Speaker 1 (42:48):
A difference to me, Simon, I don't wins and losses. Yeah,
that's fair about my wins and losses.

Speaker 3 (42:56):
Yeah, hard Rock has already moved the unfortunately, like to me,
it's plus three. Go find it if you can on
the Jags. But I don't even know how much time
when I spend this one because I honestly hate this game, Chad.
I hate that I have to better, I hate that
IM have to watch it. I just do not enjoy
the trebor Lards betting experience. I never have, never will.
So this is the random time where I'll take that
number because I know it's the right one. The midle

(43:17):
thinks it's the right one. Chad just basically nailed it,
like we get burned by the Chargers here every time.
Now we're going the other side. We will definitely Chargers
by thirty points in this matchup. But now it's just
we talked the matchup wise that you saw Herbert even
against the Pittsburgh they feel like they got a way
with a bunch of stuff just because there's so many
turnovers by Rogers and everything kind of went their way.

(43:39):
Where this feels like a good spot right for this
Jaguars team and the fact that games should be a pick.
Jaguars gave up was the twenty nine points on a
fourth quarter embarrassing loss. This numbers moved a whole another
point to this Chargers team. So plus three, I'll take
on this Shacks team. But my guy, do I hate it?

Speaker 2 (43:58):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (43:58):
Seattle let Los Angeles Rams, two of the best teams
in the conference. Right now, Rams are two and a
half point favors. This is one of those games where
I was referring to earlier, like open to three moved
to two and a half, and the Wise guys are
clearly coming on Seattle.

Speaker 2 (44:20):
Talk to me.

Speaker 3 (44:23):
I should have said, pause, Uh yeah, it's it's a
it's a great matchup Seahawks. How do we not take
them here? How do we not take the shocks? I
know why people are betting the Rams. The Rams are
getting all the early money. This number, like you just said,
it is two and a half. Now, a couple three
still out there you can find if you can. But

(44:44):
that's that's where I want to be the shocks. I
wanted to be on the three early. This Rams team,
I get it, they're an absolute juggernaut, right, No, they're
the hottest team of football. But there are things you
look at the matchup wise that the Seahawks team can
do that's gonna give the Rams real problems offensively. And
I'm excited to see al Sean mcbays gonna counter that
because you know, this year we've been talking a lot
about this Yowks team has been a different team on

(45:06):
the road. This feels like the true test for them
on the road this year, right Like I'm I'm trying
to find another game this year they've faced the team
on the road that's at this type of level. I
really can't find it. And the Rams we've talked about,
they're probably the best off at some football right now.

Speaker 2 (45:22):
So yeah, it's.

Speaker 3 (45:24):
A huge game, right this is their first time meeting
up in this division. Feels like they're the two teams
at the top. They're by far the two teams that
as an Eagles fan, probably give you the most worry
right now in football. So I, as an Egles fan,
can't wait to watch this one. This I would say
this is the game of the week. I know a
lot of people think Eagles Detroit is because I believe
they're both number one in their divisions right now. But

(45:46):
I love this type of game because divisionally, and like
you just said, it's the type of game that it's
going to have huge ramifications going forward. So Seattle wise,
our big warry here. It's we're back Darnald over Stafford
when Stafford's super high right now, and we're talking about
confidence with the last possession in the game, it's gonna

(46:06):
be Stafford. So I'm not shocked to see professionals and
early money here coming on the Rams at the two
and a half. But I just love this matchup wise,
Seahawks against this Rams offense. Defensively, on the flip side,
I don't really think the Rams have guys that can
get stops against the Seahawks team that it's the play
action pass, it's what's working, and they don't have a
corner that could take away JSN. So I like the

(46:29):
matchup schipsmatically for the Seahawks team, So really really excited
to this one. Maybe a game we don't bet or
put in our contests because it's just going to be
a game where you don't really need to invest a
lot into because there's too many UKNOWN factors and how
good of a matchup it is. But at the three,
I think you got to take the Seahawks of that number.

Speaker 2 (46:44):
Yeah, I'm hoping it'll get back there. I don't know
if it will.

Speaker 1 (46:47):
But I like Seattle's defense here. They are so good
at rushing the passer and if there's anything we know,
especially up the middle, if there's anything we know can
bother Matthew Stafford's pass rush up the middle where he's
got to evade going outside, and that's just harder for
him to do. It's always been hard for him to do,

(47:07):
even when he was younger, and now that he's older,
that to me is the biggest challenge. It's always the
biggest challenge for older quarterbacks. So when someone's coming at
you directly in front of you, it's hard to figure
out which way you're going to go, and you don't
have the legs to sort of get there. I really
like Seattle's defense. They're so freaking good, and I think

(47:28):
they're better than the Rams defense, to be honest, especially
from the pass rush. So, yeah, we don't have to
invest a ton in this, but we're gonna like Seattle
and we're gonna be rooting for Seattle on Sunday San
Francisco at Arizona. So we talked about the Sunday night.
My first instinct was take the Cardinals of plus three.
The line has moved to two and a half. My

(47:51):
instinct was it's just natural off of a blowout loss.
The things that happened in that game against Seattle are unprecedented.
The same guy forcing a fumble to a teammate and
the same teammate picking up the fumble and running it
back for a touchdown, and that happened twice in the
first sixteen minutes of the game.

Speaker 3 (48:11):
Holy smokes, another touchdown for the same.

Speaker 2 (48:16):
Guy, and like after that, Simon.

Speaker 1 (48:21):
After that, Cardinals played lights out and they actually outscored
the Seahawks the rest of the game.

Speaker 2 (48:29):
So that's why I like the Cardinals.

Speaker 1 (48:31):
They just got blown out, and it's the right side
the week after a blowout.

Speaker 3 (48:37):
Yeah, I think it's anesoly a good match for them
against what we keep talking about, a four niners defense
that they can only keep getting away with so much
scheme wise. Eventually, it does matter when you don't have
players that can put any type of pressure on a
quarterback right you need some type of pass rush. You
don't have any type of cover corners. The Fred Warner injury.
As the weeks have gone alonger, it's grown more and

(48:57):
more where you just see in game adjustments just aren't
the same about him in the middle. Commanded it there.
So I I gave out the road talk I can
give out, right, I gave out that Texans gave out
Green Bay. People are gonna hat these next couple games.
I just love all these home dogs, and it starts
with this game here. So, like Chad said, if you
can find the plus three, that's where I would prefer

(49:18):
to be. Don't hate the two and a half. Just
want to always get the best number available. So I
don't know if this will be a game comes someday
we'll even talk about really, because it's just it's just
not going to be there with us with the number.

Speaker 1 (49:30):
We're not going to get a three and a half.
We're only going to get a two and a half.

Speaker 3 (49:34):
Yeah, and I just don't love it. Like I like it.
I'm betting at two and a half, but I'm not
crazy about it, especially wh where we don't know who
the quarterrecsent. You don't know if it's me, Mac or Pretty. Still,
the foty nitrews have been really quiet about it. So
I look at this as Pretty was close last week,
maybe he comes back this week. But last week we
said last week that wasn't really a Mac Jones' fault.
They lost that game. So another game where I was like, Okay,

(49:59):
maybe I'll be on the under here because I just
know the polks that are coming really heavy on the
end over Again, it's only Tuesday here. I've seen three
different books that give out their betting line info. Ninety
five to one hundred percent of the money is on
the over in this matchup, so people love it here.
I just like this. As a divisional game, it's always

(50:19):
a risky bet, especially if it's a high total of
forty eight and a half. So another sneaky little playout, like,
here's the under in.

Speaker 2 (50:25):
This game, Simon.

Speaker 1 (50:28):
The Baltimore Ravens are visiting the Cleveland Browns at hard
Rock Bet. The Cleveland Browns are eight point underdogs. There
are plenty of eight and a half's out there. I'm
telling you right now, the Cleveland Browns plus eight are
going to be Chad's Choice presented by hard Rock Bet.

Speaker 2 (50:53):
Are you sure you want to do this?

Speaker 3 (50:54):
Are you willing to make a choice? What choice? We
can't run from a way out, sharp dudes can just
see it, you know what I mean.

Speaker 1 (51:06):
I'm obviously hoping and praying that Dylan Gabriel can find
a way to get into the end zone at some
point in this game. But really, we've established a pattern
here that has worked well for us, not because it's
a trend, but because we actually see this with our eyes.
The Browns defense is just a different team at home.

(51:29):
This is going back two seasons now in which they
continue to be able to dominate against much better teams
at home and keep themselves in a position to win
these games. And right now we're getting a Baltimore Ravens
team that has won three in a row that now
just looked great against the Vikings team that everyone expected
might be a little bit closer of a game, and

(51:52):
all of a sudden, it's a massive, massive number in
the division against a still very stingy defense.

Speaker 2 (51:59):
So give me the stingy defense. You know.

Speaker 1 (52:02):
I like to bet a team when I feel like
they're massive underdogs and I know they can have at.

Speaker 2 (52:07):
Least one dominant.

Speaker 1 (52:11):
Area of the game between offense, defense and special teams.
They've got a unit, and I think their defensive unit
can be dominant.

Speaker 3 (52:21):
Yeah, it's a game we both pick Sunday night, and
I knew right away. It's like, Okay, this is a
good game. We're probably gonna be talking Sunday morning, but
we just everything about it. We love, love the matchup
of the scheme. Wise, like you said, these teams already
played Ravens won forty one to seventeen much earlier in
this season. And as much as you want to take

(52:42):
away from that game that this Brown seam, maybe it
doesn't match up well for them, Like we said, that's
on the road. It's a difference. They're just a different
team at home this season. Believe the most points they've
lost by is four. So we've just seen they play
close games at home. It's a really tough team to
beat at home, you know, the Browns. As bad as
that loss was against that Juts team. You know, we

(53:06):
said it's special teams. Like Gabriel wasn't that terrible. It
seems like he's getting more comfortable in this offense as
the season is going along here, So like we need one,
we need one from him. Needn't get a one or
two touchdows from at least because Lamar will eventually get
his just the way it is, he's one of the
best players in all football. So matchup wise, can they
take away the run? Can they keep a little more contained?

(53:28):
They got the guys like that's this front is just
so impressive, so dominant, So both love it, can't avoid it.
Like you said, shop around for the eight and a
half people, it's such a key number, go get it.
Could see this being like Miami though, could see this
get into seven seven and a half by kickoff as
a professional when he comes in. But it's gonna be
funny see what the Brooks do with it, because it's

(53:49):
gonna be huge parlays, huge teasers. Everyone's just fully comfortable
all in on this Ravens team, especially after last week
where they won so big for us and the public.
It was a big win in a cover by them.
I think everyone's slowly bought in now at this point
on this Ravens team.

Speaker 1 (54:03):
Yeah, totally true, all true. Everything you just said, Cleveland
Browns Chat Choice presented by hard Rock Bet Kansas City
at Denver. You like this one on Sunday Night? You
like Kansas City. You said Kansas City minus three. It
has now moved to three and a half.

Speaker 3 (54:19):
No way, did I really?

Speaker 2 (54:21):
I think you did? Didn't you?

Speaker 3 (54:22):
Oh man?

Speaker 2 (54:23):
I could have sworn you did.

Speaker 1 (54:26):
Oh By the way, I do have one more stat
for the Browns that I forgot to mention from Killer Sports.
Teams playing their third straight road game, coming off a
straight up and against the spread wind like the Ravens,
the opposing team is sixty five.

Speaker 2 (54:40):
Percent against the spread. I'm wrong. You like Denver. I'm
looking at right now. You like Denver.

Speaker 3 (54:47):
This was like a Denver line Denver game in a
million different ways where I knew this time would be
semi inflated, thought it would be four four and a half,
maybe we get there, And we always talked about we
just don't try my homes as more than a three
point favorite, especially in divisional against these type of games
where we just know it's gonna be grueling, ugly close

(55:08):
type of games. So not shockingly everyone hates Denver now,
I mean, that was painful to watch last Thursday. Costs
a bunch of people, a bunch of money. And you know,
the Chiefs still look like one of the best teams
in all football right when it's clicking for them offensive.
I know the record doesn't reflect it, but we all
view them this is one of the better teams. So

(55:29):
I hope this gets higher. I was gonna make this,
Simon says, but I didn't just because I do think
we could get a four to four and a half here.
I just could see a ton of public love for
this Chiefs team, and I could see the professionals being
patient because this won't dip back to three. There's just
no way the books take a stand that way. So
I do like Denver here, but I'm not gonna make
it better yet. I do think we can get some

(55:49):
fours here poping up pretty soon.

Speaker 2 (55:52):
All right.

Speaker 1 (55:53):
To be clear, you did say Denver on Sunday night.
I misremembered.

Speaker 3 (55:58):
It is weak. It was late.

Speaker 2 (56:00):
It was late at the end of those days. I'm
a mass man. I'm tired, I'm a little dehydrated.

Speaker 1 (56:06):
My head starts to hurt a little bit. You know,
you're not yourself on Sunday mornings. Sunday night. I'm a
morning guy.

Speaker 2 (56:15):
You're an evening guy.

Speaker 3 (56:18):
Yeah. I think it's the fact I've been up twenty
four hours straight. By that point, I'm already kind of loopy,
ye until living my mind by.

Speaker 2 (56:24):
Then could be well. By that point, I've been up,
you know, thirteen hours straight, and so I'm exhausted.

Speaker 1 (56:30):
There you go, all right, Primetime Spotlight. We got some
island games, standalone games.

Speaker 2 (56:35):
Let's talk about it. Detroit plus two at Philadelphia.

Speaker 3 (56:39):
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, famous for the.

Speaker 4 (56:42):
Liberty Bell, Blue Laws soft pretzels.

Speaker 3 (56:45):
True Philadelphia fan learns daboo before he learns to speak.

Speaker 2 (56:50):
I think.

Speaker 1 (56:50):
On Sunday night, we both talked about liking Detroit, but
we wanted to wait to see what happened in the
Monday night game because we thought the line would move.
It was at one and a half, it's two at hard.
It's two and a half in a lot of other places.
I still like Detroit here. I feel like it's a
pretty good spot for them. And I don't know that
what we saw offensively from the Eagles last night was

(57:13):
an anomaly. It seems to be how they play the
game with a lot a lot of rhythm, with some
weird play calling, and they win. They find ways to win.
But I think Detroit's offense, with Dan Campbell calling the plays,
might have a better chance to find their rhythm as well.

Speaker 3 (57:36):
Huge, huge mistake. No, I'm not gonna give you two
more of a time about it. I did like the Lions.
I thought it was probably a good spot, but already
took some shit about my love for the lines and
how I'm stepping in it, walking in really a little bit.
And it is fair like they've faced one good defense

(57:59):
this year, this Lion's team, and they put up seventeen
points against the Chiefs. This is not a good matchup
for golf. Like you just saw that front now Phillips
on this Eagles team, they got some guys now Befron,
they can get pressure and one on one matchups against
other teams quarterbacks, So I'll be patient here. I hate
when I do get flipped all these type of games

(58:21):
and the number has gone against me. Like if this
was one and a half, I've said, I still feel
much better about the Eagles team, Like you said, now
it's up to two to two and a half. I
don't know how much I'm gonna really dig in here,
but it seems like Eagles might be the wrong side
this Lions team, as good as they are, they do
have some flaws. Defensively, they are banged up, and I
don't know if Campbell call on your offenses to where

(58:43):
you want to be. I really don't like that. When
I heard that, I was like, ah Man, Campbell's now
they're offensive coordinator, Like Chad's gonna get his wish A
lot of runs up the middle and fourth and one.
I guarantee you that even if you could stop three
times in a row. So I don't know, Like this
is a team that, like we said, they got embarrassed

(59:05):
with that Chiefs game, then they we loved them in
the spot they beat up on the Bucks at home,
had to buy a week, lost to JJ McCarthy, and
then just beat up on a Washington team. So I
just have a lot of questions that much be a
question about this Eagles team. It's a good number for them.
They're at home under a field goal, catching a team

(59:26):
that might be overvalued and overrated publicly just because they
already forgot about that bad Vikings loss and they just
come off a dominant win. So I just have some
little questions here about why the pros hit me up
so hard about beating on the Eagles. And they were
right once again last night about the Eagles team. That
was a game they covered from the minute the game
kicked off to the very end. They covered the entire

(59:46):
way through. So yeah, we might be understanding this Eagles
team that just it doesn't look pretty Chad, but they
keep winning. And I think they're six and one down
one score games this season. It's under a field goal,
so this might be an Eagles line.

Speaker 1 (59:58):
All right, Look, I can be agreeable, and uh, look
what I thought about this last night. There was one
of the plays where Jalen Hurts was pushed out of
the pockets scrambling right early in the game to convert
a third down. I forgot who he hit and Shipley
I think Will Shipley, Yeah, and.

Speaker 2 (01:00:21):
He was so.

Speaker 1 (01:00:23):
Relaxed and smooth and unbothered, and that's how he's always
playing as quarterback of the Eagles.

Speaker 2 (01:00:33):
Like it just all seems as though he's seen it,
he gets it.

Speaker 1 (01:00:39):
He understands how to win, which he has done his
entire career going back to college, so I get it.

Speaker 2 (01:00:44):
Like it's a hard team.

Speaker 3 (01:00:45):
Took him a quarter to shake that fumble, though instantly enough,
like you're saying, frustrated, he did seem after that he
was like forcing throws that usually doesn't force and it's
like they need again in his ear tell him to
kind of bring it back. So yeah, like, I will
not be shocked if this is one of the most
public dogs of the week Detroit. The Eagles looks so
bad on a short week now facing the Detroit team

(01:01:07):
that looks so good in the eyes of the public.
So yeah, it's an interesting line that the book's opened
here with.

Speaker 2 (01:01:22):
We still low with Simon says, and there's only one
game left. It's Dallas at Las Vegas.

Speaker 1 (01:01:26):
Vegas is a three and a half point dog. By
the way, this line on Sunday Monday was Dallas minus
one and a half, so it's gone up two points
at this point.

Speaker 2 (01:01:38):
Simon, what say you.

Speaker 3 (01:01:40):
Chad knows me so well. Simon says, give me Las
Vegas or A eight is plus three and a half.
I want to play a game. Simon says, I feel
like all year, I'm gonna keep telling people you fade
Dallas when they're more than a three point favorite, and
it's hit every game. I'm trying to think what game
we lost this year on it. There was some stupid
game that one. But yeah, like just this matchup, it

(01:02:03):
feels like the same with the Panthers. Panthers were three
and a half. They covered it. Cardinals are three and
a half against this Dallas team covered went out right.
It's just an offense that you know, the Broncos were
a really good defense and they did what we thought
they would do right. Like again, I can't believe we
didn't cover that. If you would have told me the
Raiders road score seven points out of block field goal,

(01:02:25):
block punt, you know, nine penalties, you would think you
would have covered that one. But this Raiders team is
still playing hard, I mean as bad as I thought
they would look. It's a team that has been playing
hard for their coach, and when you look at this matchup,
I think they're under rating this, you know, getting rid
of Myers and the fact that this offense, you know,

(01:02:48):
people look are just so downplaying them because of that
Broncos game where you know, getting Brock Bowers back. It's
a huge upgrade to this team. I know they didn't
use them in the previous week, but against Dallas, who
cannot cover the middle of the field, this is the
matchup for him. So, you know, Dak, this is a
get right game for him. He can put up a
ton of points. But I just see this this team
keeping up with them and this being a closer game

(01:03:08):
than people realize. So as a city here right now,
there's a couple of threes out there. I'm seeing a
lot of books move to three and a half. So
getting well you can Hard Rock is one of the
first books to get to three and a half. I
do think I'll go back down as professionals coming on
this Raiders team. But we'll see, you know, like we
always say, the Monday night games, the public is a
ton of users, tuple of money line parlay is all
tied to that money line that Monday game. So right

(01:03:31):
now we're looking at a Dallas team on the road,
probably even getting by kickoff eighty percent of the money,
eighty percent of the tickets. Like that's I just think
the public's gonna hammer them this matchup. So a dog
at home getting that least amount of money like that,
I just love this matchup for this Raiders team.

Speaker 2 (01:03:47):
All right, Look, we.

Speaker 1 (01:03:48):
Got a lot of games to talk about on Thursday.
We're gonna have to talk about the Browns. We're probably
gonna have to talk about Cincinnati. We're gonna talk about
Houston because we want to know who's playing quarterback. We'll
be curious about Green Bay to see how that number moves.

Speaker 3 (01:04:06):
And the Houston there is there is a six and
a half out there. Now. People are gonna hear this
six and a half half.

Speaker 1 (01:04:11):
Pop Now, we gotta go bet six and a half
on Houston the box. We're very curious to see how
the line moves on the Bears and the Vikings, the Jags.

Speaker 2 (01:04:20):
We're not going to talk about it Seattle.

Speaker 1 (01:04:22):
We're interested in Arizona if we can get it to three.
We're interested in Denver plus three and a half. We
want more on the Philly Detroit game in Las Vegas
plus three and a half. A Simon says, man it
is gonna be busy.

Speaker 3 (01:04:38):
Another and one more line shift before we go. Jets
up to twelve and a half now, so oh my god,
probably gonna have probably gonna get the thirteen shot. We're
not gonna have a choice, but the bettt come Thursday
night once I get to thirteen.

Speaker 2 (01:04:49):
Poor jets, Poor jets.

Speaker 1 (01:04:52):
All right, this has been Sharper Square, part of the
Volume podcast network. We'll be back on Thursday with the
games we're zeroing in on, plus our head to head battle,
our brass balls better the week, so much more. Watch
or listen on YouTube at Sharp or Square. Like the video,
subscribe to the channel. Also Donald's from Spotify, Apple Pods,
where video pods rate review, subscribe feedback is a gift

(01:05:16):
to leave us five stars until next time.

Speaker 2 (01:05:20):
Love you, Hey, let's recare for