FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 14 (Ep. 1882) - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome in the Fantasy pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined asam every Friday morning by Pat fitz
Morrison by Derek Brown, and we are answering or asking
some key questions for Week fourteen. Fellas. This is it.
It is the week to make the playoffs. In most leagues.
We actually have a work league that the playoffs are
already beginning this week. There are some leagues where that

(00:21):
is the case. I do not like it. It is
not we would not have been my vote if I
was commissioner. But for most leagues, this is the week
to clinch up those spots, and we're here to help
everybody do so. There are people who you know, you're
already in and it's just about seeding. Maybe you've already
clinched it.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
Buye.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
If that's you, I appreciate you still listening and just
kind of previewing the weekend with us. Anyway, for those
who are trying to lock up those playoff spots, you know,
let's do it. We'll jump right in here. There are
four teams on by Panthers, Giants, Patriots, and Niners. Patriots
obviously have provided some fantasy goodness for us this year
more than expected. And there's some stars on those other
teams as well, so we're missing players. We'll try to

(00:59):
fill those spots. Here. All of our weekly consensus rankings
and tiers. By the way, it can be found at
fantasypros dot com slash rankings. Before we get into the preview,
I do want to ask you guys about a very
high scoring Thursday night game Lions forty four, Cowboys thirty.
We can go quickly. I did not watch this game
though I had other stuff going on last night, so

(01:19):
it was frustrating to sit down and see Jamiir Gibbs
scored three touchdowns when he is one of the reasons
I got eliminated from my guy eighteen league a week
ago because he didn't have the greatest game. It would
have a nice of these three touchdowns game this week,
but obviously like a very good game for the Lions
offense and a good game for the Cowboys offense. It
appears here, Debro, what was your takeaway here and how

(01:40):
would you describe the game to somebody who didn't watch?

Speaker 2 (01:42):
So this game started off slow at the gate. I
thought this was going to like hit the under and
be more of a defensive game if you just watched
like the first like quarter maybe two quarters and turned
it off like you were like, oh, this is hitting
the under and then the second half was just just fireworks. Man.
Offenses came alive, you know. Detroit just kept piling it on.

(02:04):
There were some interesting calls, the Revs kind of fumbled
the bag and multiple different spots yet again, which was
it's always a fun time, especially on island games. But overall, man,
it's just the Lions looked like, again, one of the
best offenses in the NFL. When Amina Saint Brown, I mean, dude,
we talked about it in slack fitsy before the game
kicked off, and I'm like, okay, he's playing. I'm trying

(02:27):
to figure out where the heck to rank him and
Jamison Williams, and both of them had solid games, but
not like amazing games. Fifth.

Speaker 3 (02:36):
Yeah, we talked about aman Rah on the Waiver Show
and someone might have suggested that guys usually play off
low ankle sprains, never on high the next week, but
often on low, and that was the case with aman Ross.
So I wasn't totally stunned. We did see him pretty
good game. He didn't look like he was compromised in
any way. Yeah, it was. We got the track meets

(03:00):
that the Vegas total of fifty four and a half suggested.
I was very tempted to bet it under, just because
there are so many ways that I'm total that high
can be short circuited, just and we kind of got
those early on with a couple of drives ending in
field goals. You know. Just anyway, it was. It was
a fun game, but yeah, and pretty consequential game considering that,

(03:24):
I think whoever lost that game is going to have
a real uphill struggle to try to make the playoffs,
and now Dallas has probably got to win out to
get in.

Speaker 2 (03:32):
Also, I do want to bring up man that the
concussion to ceede lamb. If you've not seen the video,
don't watch it. It was. It was horrible to see.
And I again, we're talking about the first week of
the Fantasy playoffs. I don't know if he's going to
be available. It was that bad.

Speaker 1 (03:48):
Yeah, I didn't know he got I was totally like
just not working at all.

Speaker 2 (03:52):
And it was it was. It was not pretty, ma'am.

Speaker 3 (03:55):
He is the extra three days because of the Thursday
night game, So you hope maybe that can help him
clear a concussion protocol. But yeah, if you are a
cd LAMB investor, you probably should make alternative plans.

Speaker 1 (04:06):
That's tough. By I'm looking here in the box score,
Brandon Aubrey had field goals from fifty seven, fifty five,
sixty three like also forty two to twenty nine. Just
a huge day for him, it appears.

Speaker 2 (04:20):
Yeah, again I made them all look easy.

Speaker 3 (04:22):
Ye get the guy inside and he's just a machine.

Speaker 1 (04:26):
Fifty five pluses.

Speaker 2 (04:28):
The fifty seven yarder looked like he barely even tried,
like he just kicked.

Speaker 1 (04:32):
And I was like, I watched a lot of good
kicking during Justin Tucker's tenure, and I feel like Aubrey
is just like that next evolution of that where it's
just looks he makes it look easy from very very
far away. So impressive by him.

Speaker 3 (04:48):
Guys.

Speaker 1 (04:48):
Let's get into the early slate here. Like I said,
we have four teams on buy, so a couple fewer
games than usual. First game on the slate Seahawks at Falcons.
I'm going to bring back you might remember last time
we talked, I gave you kind of a guy a
fake million dollar offer. If I offered you a million dollars,
you had to get it right, Troy Franklin or Cortland Sutton.
I don't actually think you guys did get it right,
although I don't remember for sure, but we're bringing it back.

Speaker 2 (05:12):
I would have been okay.

Speaker 1 (05:15):
If I told you you would win a million dollars
if you correctly pick who scores more Fantasy points this week.
Between Kenneth Walker and Zach Sharbonay, who would you pick? Debro?
I think we all agree Kenneth Walker is the better player.
Sharbonay continues to often get the goal line opportunities going
up against the bad Falcons team. So if I gave
you a million dollars, who would you pick? Walker or Sharboney?

Speaker 2 (05:35):
I think at this point, considering these questions, I'm just
not meant to have generational wealth. So I'm just gonna
lean into that further and I'm just gonna keep picking
Kenneth Walker. Man like the backfield's moved in his directions,
but good lord, the guy can't buy a freaking touchdown.
It doesn't matter. Like snapcount goes up, he gets more
snaps in the red zone, he out carry Sharbonay, Scharbonay

(05:55):
still gets the touchdowns, I'll pick Kenneth Walker. I know
I'm probably going down with Titanic with that, but I'll
just lean on that he's getting more of the backfield
my bank account.

Speaker 3 (06:06):
Yeah, I went and looked back at how these guys
have done against each other. Who's scored more over the game?
So there was one game Charbona missed early in the season.
In the other eleven games using half point PPR scoring,
Charbonay out scored Walker five times. Walker out scored Charbona
five times. They tied wise, So handicapping this one is

(06:28):
pretty tough. Like Debro, I'm gonna go with Walker because
he gets more opportunities. Since the start of November, which
is the last five games for the Seahawks, Walker's played
more than half the offensive snaps and all but one
of those games. Charbona has played just under forty percent
of the offensive snaps and all but one of those games.
Walker's averaged fifteen point four touches a game over that span,

(06:52):
scharbon A ten point eight with only three catches. But
obviously it's it's the touchdowns that make this a tough call.
Walker four on the season, just one over his last
five games. Charbona is eight on the season, three over
his last five games, So I'd rather bet on more
predictable things. Snaps, carries, catches, touchdowns are unpredictable. I'm convinced

(07:15):
that's why people like PPR scoring, not because they feel
they need to balance out running backs and receivers. I'm
not sure PPR really accomplishes that anyway. PPR scoring is
just a way to dilute the variance of touchdowns and
touchdown scoring, like adding a point per reception means points
from touchdowns account for a smaller percentage of total fantasy

(07:35):
points than we get in standard scoring leagues, and I
think that appeals to a lot of people. I think
a lot of people prefer a game where the vagaries
of touchdowns scoring means a little bit less.

Speaker 1 (07:46):
That's interesting. I've been totally converted by the way to
half PPR half point for first downs. That's kind of
like my favorite version of that to play in as
a scoring format. It's interesting, like you just talked about
how this has basically been split down the middle fits
between these two, and yet in the consensus rankings, Kenneth

(08:06):
Walker's RB seventeen, sharbon A is RB thirty one, so
they're not being ranked as if this is a toss up.

Speaker 3 (08:12):
Yeah, I'm closer the touchdowns, right, but I'm I'm closer
between those two. I think I'm above on charbon Ay
and below on Walker.

Speaker 1 (08:21):
Yeah, were they at again worm seven one.

Speaker 2 (08:26):
I've got Walker at eighteen and I've got Sharboney. I've
got him at thirty one, but I think the conversation
for him starts somewhere around like twenty five.

Speaker 1 (08:35):
And by the way, those numbers are with like Gibbs, Montgomery, Javonte,
like with those guys removed, you can bump them up
a few spots. But yeah, I mean, I I find
I roster both of these guys in a league together,
and I find myself just like constantly frustrated at which
one I started. All Right, we can go to Steelers

(08:55):
at Ravens. Here, will Lamar Jackson in the offense finally
get going this week against a bad Pittsburgh defense, or
will his past Steelers' troubles rear their ugly head again
and continue his recent slump fits. I'll start with you.

Speaker 3 (09:09):
Yeah, the easy answers, I don't know, but I'm not
pinching Lamar, and I've got him at QB eight and
maybe that's even below consensus, but.

Speaker 1 (09:21):
Quickly it is aligned with consensus. He's exactly QB eight.

Speaker 3 (09:23):
Yeah, and I get it. So he's been dealing with
this ankle injury and just hasn't been himself. He's gone
three straight games without a touchdown pass hasn't run for
a touchdown since Week one, which is kind of crazy.
And is QB thirty one in fantasy points per game
over the last four weeks. Not very Lamar Jackson like,
and you said it where the Steelers have historically given
him trouble. In eight career starts against Pittsburgh, Jackson has

(09:47):
averaged one hundred and sixty point five passing yards a game,
eight TV passes, nine interceptions, and he has never had
a rushing touchdown against the Steelers, which is kind of crazy.
So things are kind of stacked against him a little
bit here. But on the other hand, would it shock
you if Lamar had a twenty five or thirty point game.
It would never shock me for Lamar to go off.

Speaker 1 (10:08):
It wouldn't shock me. It would surprise me. My my
view in this game before I toss to deebro is
I am. I think It's more likely that this is
the game where the Ravens rushing attack gets going than
it is the game where Lamar gets going. Those do
go somewhat hand in hand a lot at the time.
But Tomlin does you know, at historically he does a
really good job against rushing quarterbacks and limiting their rushing.

(10:30):
So like, I don't expect you know, a rushing touchdown
from Lamar or anything like that. That's not really how
they use him anyway. The thing that has been so
limiting for him, in my opinion, is less his ability
to run and more his ability to evade pass rushers
in the pocket. And it's such a bad offensive line
right now that he's not able to kind of hide
those warts the way he usually does, which has led

(10:53):
to obviously this this is an extended version of the slump.
You would expect even a slumping Lamar to be better
than he has been. Deebra, how do you see this
playing out? Do you think this is a game where
Lamar and the offense as a whole, You know, Derrick
Henry whoever it might be, can kind of finally bounce back.
It didn't happen against the bad Bengals defense. Can it
happen against the bad Pittsburgh defense.

Speaker 2 (11:12):
I'll say this, I won't be shocked if it happens,
but I'm not projecting it that way. I just and
to further aut the Fitzi's points, Lamar has not cleared
forty rushing yards in a game since Week four against
the freaking Chiefs, and he's only done that twice this
entire season. Since throw over four passing touchdowns against the
Dolphins a Week nine, he has won passing touchdown. And yes,

(11:35):
we could talk about all the touchdowns that would be,
could be and should be, about fumbles and all things
in between, it doesn't matter because they didn't happen. You
look at the last four games, QB fifteen, QB twenty nine,
QB twenty five, QB twenty seven, and weekly scoring. Even
if we want to parse this out and say, okay,
well he's not gonna run, all right, Fine, he's not
gonna run because he hasn't been running all freaking year.

(11:57):
What has he been doing as a passer since Week
TENNKST thirty five qualifying passers Lamar Jackson thirty fifth, so
dead last and highly accurate throw rate and twenty ninth
and catchuble target rate. So he hasn't been running, he
doesn't get rushing production versus the Steelers, and when he's
throwing the ball, he hasn't been good. No, I don't

(12:19):
think this is gonna be the bounce back. And the
other thing about this is the Steelers are playing better defense.
Man Like, since Week nine, this pass defense has come alive.
They've allowed the seventh fewest yards per attempt and the
eighth lowest success rate per dropback.

Speaker 1 (12:31):
And so the run defense, I mean, coming off that
Bills game, Oh.

Speaker 2 (12:36):
Yeah, but the Bills have been doing that to I mean,
like everybody. The Bills just been rushing down everybody's throat,
so that that's not incredibly surprising. And I don't know
if the Ravens, to your point, Worm, do they have
the offensive line right now to impose their will on
the ground if they want to.

Speaker 1 (12:52):
Well, I was going to say that the best two
games Lamar has played against the Steelers in his career
are the two most recent. It was the second game
last regular season and the playoff game last year. But
those were also largely driven by Derek Henry. Lamar was
just he had he had those usual, like really efficient
games where he was really good, but he didn't do much.
It was a lot of the running game kind of

(13:13):
opening opening things up. I will say too before we
move off this that like it's not debro, I'll correct you.
It's not that Lamar's not running. It's that he's not
running well. He has. He's you know, these last five
games he's run five, nine, four, seven and six rush
attempts if you look at them. But first month of the.

Speaker 2 (13:29):
Season, that's not a normal Lamar game.

Speaker 1 (13:31):
Like, well it has been this season. I'm saying when
he was running better in the first month of the season,
he was running six times, seven times, six times. He
was just way more efficient at it. So you're right,
compared to his career it's less, but compared to earlier
this season before the injury, it's about the same. It's
just not getting anywhere. He doesn't have the ability to
accelerating or you know, or evade guys. Really, I think

(13:52):
is the big thing. So I'm kind of with you.
I leaned towards this not being the bounce back for Lamar.
Fitz said, he's ranked QB eight. Where's he ranked for you,
deebra Are you can considering not starting him if you
have him.

Speaker 2 (14:02):
Yeah, I mean I'm considering it, Like I mean, do
I do it in most aspects of my sitting Lamar Jackson. No,
But it depends on your freaking options. Man, Like right
now I've got him at QB nine. So, like, there's
some teams out there, and this is this is a
real conundrum. There's some teams out there that could possibly
have Lamar Jackson and picked up Joe Burrow off the

(14:23):
wave of wire and it's like, who are you starting?

Speaker 1 (14:25):
Is me?

Speaker 2 (14:26):
Yes, and I think it should be Joe Burrow. The
matchup is tougher and stuff like that. Maybe you want
to like balance that out. Okay, does t Higgins play
or not? But I just don't know what this iteration
of Lamar Jackson and watch like he goes out and
scores four touchdowns and makes me like eat all of this.
But that doesn't mean that the process is wrong, that
he has been playing terribly.

Speaker 1 (14:46):
Guys, let's get Titans at Browns out of the way.
Both these teams think, I don't want to talk about
this game. If I forced you to watch every second
of this game, what players are matchups? Would you most
want to be paying attention? To what intrigues you the
most about this matchup? If I made you pick something fits,
you'll go first here.

Speaker 3 (15:04):
Oh the quarterbacks. In the pre draft season the run
up to the draft, deebro and I actually preferred Shaddour
to cam Ward. I think we both liked his accuracy,
his field reading, the way he through with anticipation, throwing
to a spot instead of needing to wait for a
receiver to break open. He had some of those traits

(15:25):
that successful NFL quarterbacks tend to have. And I don't
know if I'd make the same choice now, but we
are still trying to figure out what Shadour can be.
And you know, his first two starts haven't been terrible
after that disastrous relief appearance he made after Dylan Gabriel
was concussed against the Ravens a few weeks ago, We're

(15:45):
still just trying to figure out, you know, does Shdour
of a future as a starter or is he going
to be a backup? And I think we're still trying
to figure out how good cam Ward can be. Like
the fantasy results have been bad. He's been pretty much unusable,
But the kid was dealta really bad hand, Like not
a good group of pass catchers in Tennessee. Not a
very good offensive line, not a great system. We've seen

(16:09):
flashes though, we've seen the arm talent. We've seen the
mobility and the ability to kind of manufacture plays a
la Caleb Williams off script. But you know, as ugly
as this game is going to be, it'll be sort
of fun to see cam Warden, Shodo or Sanders go
head to head and see who can make more plays.

Speaker 2 (16:27):
Debra, Yeah, I mean, I'm with FITSI on this one.
The off season videos of both of them training together
and everybody's takes were honestly hilarious, both now and in
you know, in the future. But I think for me,
it's watching Sugar Sanders and seeing what he does versus
his defense. And I'll even throw in because I think
he's an interesting flex play this week. I know that

(16:48):
a lot of people are not going to have the
light on. I get it, it's scary, but I'm very
interested in Jerry Judy in this game. And part of
this does go back to Sugar Sanders because his hypert
in this like he's eighth and deep ball throw rate
over the last two weeks, so he's trying to push
the ball down the field, and if he connects on
any of those throws versus this freaking terrible Tennessee secondary,

(17:10):
Jerry Judy could have a big game man like last
two weeks. Yeah, Like he's only got like a fifteen
percent target chair, but he does lead the team in
three deep targets. So if Shador can light up, the
secondary can show promise, can play good. And I know
that's a lot of if sands and butts with that.
If he can do those things, Jerry Judy probably has
a good day here.

Speaker 1 (17:31):
Where are you ranking Judy?

Speaker 2 (17:33):
Oh, I've got Judy. Where's he at? N ECR worm
because I'm sure, yeah, I'm sure I'm ahead of that.
I've got Judy right now at I've got him at
wide receiver forty. I've kind of got him in that
like John Metchi Darnou Mooney kind of tier.

Speaker 4 (17:48):
Okay.

Speaker 1 (17:50):
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Speaker 1 (19:12):
Next game here, guys, Colts at Jaguars, Big game in
the AFC South Colts have scored twenty or fewer points
in three of their past four games. It's got to
been highlighted by Jonathan Taylor only finishing higher than RB
nineteen once in that span. Not that our RB nineteen
is terrible, but obviously it's not on the level you
expect from the season Jonathan Taylor's having so has the
clock struck midnight on this surprising offense or d row

(19:35):
Do you expect a strong performance in Jacksonville?

Speaker 2 (19:39):
It depends on how we're going to contextualize strong. I
think that they can have a good game here, specifically
highlighting I don't think JT has like a monster game.
The Jacksonville like the strength of that defense has been
the defense where you can get at this defense is
through the air. Now, the problem with Daniel Jones's He's
playing on one and a half legs and his mobility

(19:59):
is nothing. So if they can heat him up, if
they can blitz him and stuff like that, he can crumble.
And Dear Lord h Heaven help if we see Riley
Leonard at any point in that game, because then it
just all falls apart. But if Daniel Jones can get
the ball out, I think that one Michael Pittman Junior
can have a bounce back game. I know a lot
of people like we're all on Alex Pears train and stuff,

(20:20):
but a lot of that has been very, very coverage sensitive.
I think a lot of that way the Colts have
designed this passing attack is giving Daniel Jones really clear
answers to the test on a snap to snap basis,
and part of that is reading the coverages and against
too high. Like Pittman has been the guy he has
had a twenty two point five percent target share at
twenty eight percent first reach here against too high. So

(20:41):
I think this is a big game for Michael Pittman Junior,
at least an opportunity for a big one and another
opportunity for a big game from Tyler Warren, like because
Jacksonville has been horrible versus tight end. So if both
of those guys with short flurrows and making stuff happen
and getting the ball out at Daniel Jones's hands quickly,
if that can happen, Yeah, the Dolphins the passing offense
can look a lot better. But I'm not saying like

(21:02):
a big day on the ground from JT.

Speaker 1 (21:05):
Fitz. We talked a little bit on the Thursday Show
with Jake about how the NFL has done this with
a lot of teams this year. Where two divisional opponents.
You get to Week fourteen, it's December. They still haven't
played the Raven Steelers. Is the first time they're playing,
Bears Packers, it's the first time they're playing This is
another one. The Colts and Jacks have not played yet
this year. So what do you expect from the first
matchup from these two.

Speaker 3 (21:26):
I do think Daniel jones fibular fracture is kind of
a problem for the Colts offense. Maybe it's less of
a problem than I think, And I shouldn't be fading
Jones and the indie pass catchers to the extent that
I am. But I'm below ECR and pretty much all
of them except for Tyler Warren because, as Deebro said,
the Jaguars are not especially good against tight ends. But

(21:47):
Jones isn't really running anymore. He's not throwing as much.
I think they're maybe trying to protect him a little
bit by tamping down the passing volume a little bit.
Is passing yardage is down over the last two weeks.
I think the Colts he might have to lean more
heavily on Jonathan Taylor, but we'll see how that goes
because we like heavy volume for Taylor. But after averaging

(22:09):
six yards of carry over his first ten games, he's
averaged three point nine yards per carry over his last two. Now, granted,
those were tough matchup matchups against the Chiefs and Texans,
but the Jaguars are pretty tough matchup for running backs too.
Their defense is better against the run than it is
against the pass. The Jags have allowed a league low
seven hundred and sixty four rushing yards to running backs

(22:30):
and only four touchdown runs to running.

Speaker 2 (22:33):
Backs this season.

Speaker 1 (22:35):
Just quickly before we move off this game. Brian Thomas Junior,
He's wide receiver thirty. Where is he ranked for you? Guys,
because I mean, obviously he's been such a disappointment this year.
But with four teams on buy, you know, see somebody
that you were willing to in a pinch start him,
like if you're trying to clinch up a playoff spot
here or is it just too risky? Like you're getting
away as why receiver thirty he's ranked in an area
where he could be a flex for you? Fits where
is he ranked for you?

Speaker 3 (22:55):
I'm right online wide receiver thirty, Debra, I.

Speaker 2 (23:01):
Got him at wide receiver thirty six, Like, I don't
want to start him unless I absolutely have to. I'll
Fitzy on the spot. Brian Thomas Junior Ady Mitchell this week,
I'm team AD Where you at?

Speaker 1 (23:15):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (23:15):
I need I think I think a lot of people
are gonna have this decision.

Speaker 3 (23:18):
I need to change this, Like I right now I
have BTJ ranked higher. But like if I was faced
with that decision, I think I probably I'm being honest
with myself, I would start Ady Mitchell. So I need
to Yeah, saying like that with my rankings.

Speaker 1 (23:33):
Mitchell is once about a head of consensus, once about
behind Thomas. A consensus is Roma Doonza, who would you
start between these two.

Speaker 2 (23:42):
I'd start, I'll start rolling, and just like just hope
and pray, Caleb can look like a semi competent pastor.
I've got rolling ranked wide receiver thirty one, So it's
it's not pretty all right.

Speaker 1 (23:56):
Let's go to Commanders at Vikings. This one simple. I
wants you to rank the running actually be willing to
start in this game. Fits. We talked a little bit
about Chris Rodriguez yesterday. Obviously the Vikings backfield here, So
who are the guys who are willing to start and
where are they ranked for you in this game?

Speaker 3 (24:10):
Aaron Jones running back twenty seven, Chris Rodriguez running back
twenty eights, Jordan Mason running back thirty three, and you
know McNichols and Jakry krossky merit are like outside running
back four range, so like not considerations. The Commanders haven't
been that tough a matchup for running backs. But Aaron Jones,

(24:32):
I mean, does he make it through the game with
the shoulder injury that he's been dealing with, which is
why the gap between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason isn't
all that great. And Chris Rodriguez We've talked about this.
He's only had one game with more than twelve carries
and he's caught one pass all year. So if he
does not fall into the end zone, you're probably getting
a dud game from him. And I am not playing

(24:54):
Chris Rodriguez under I don't even want to roster him
in PPR. I just think he's unplayable in PPR because
of his complete lack of pass catching.

Speaker 1 (25:04):
He is banked highest of the three in ECR at
RB twenty seven. Mason is actually second fits at RB
twenty eight. Right behind him, Jones is down at RB
thirty three in ECR. I think some people some injury
question Mark, Yeah, so.

Speaker 2 (25:17):
I think people think that he's not going to play.
That's why.

Speaker 1 (25:19):
Yeah. Yeah, I'm just throwing that out there, debro What
is you are ranking? We just focused on those three guys.
We don't need to discuss anybody. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (25:27):
I mean, for me, it's whoever is going to be
the Vikings starter. If Aaron Jones plays, I'm playing Aaron Jones.
If Aaron Jones is out, I'm playing Jordan Mason. If
Aaron Jones is in, I don't want anything to do
with Jordan Mason. So right now, I've got Aaron Jones
at RB twenty five, but there's so much that we
still need news on, like Cabari and Hampton and Alvin

(25:47):
Kamara and all those other guys. So like, I think
anywhere from like low end RB two to high end
RB three is appropriate, and we still need news on
Aaron Jones. Chris Rodriguez. I've got RB thirty and fifty
framed it perfectly like he's been that Bam night kind
of area code for me where he's gonna get twelve
to fifteen opportunities. If he doesn't freaking score a touchdown,
you're gonna hate life and wish you started him. If

(26:09):
he scores a touchdown, then cool. He's an RB three
or maybe a low end RB two, depending on how
the weak shifts out.

Speaker 1 (26:17):
I think I like Chris well, I know I don't
like Chris Ardry guys better than you guys, but I
feel I wonder if there's a chance that he does.
I do think he will score a touchdown. I guess
this is the way i'd put it, So I'm kind
of more willing to start him in this one.

Speaker 2 (26:31):
Then he's gonna get you probably like anywhere between ten
to twelve points.

Speaker 1 (26:37):
Yeah, it's not as like a ceiling play, but as
a I mean again, there are four teams on by
this week.

Speaker 2 (26:42):
So yeah, he can get you to twelve points, you're
happy as hell with that and you just move on.
But if he doesn't, he's getting you five or six
points and you're wishing get it and blame.

Speaker 1 (26:51):
Yeah, we just talked about eighty Mitchell, So let's go
to Dolphins at Jets. Is Aden I Mitchell a thing
coming off of a game with eight catches hundred and
two yards and a touchdown on twelve targets or will
we look back on week thirteen as kind of a
flash in the pan for him? Is his consensus ranking?
And by the way, when I made the sheet, it
was wide receiver thirty two. It's jumped up to wide
receiver twenty nine, as I mentioned, So that's gone up.

(27:14):
So is his consensus ranking of wide receiver twenty nine
too high, too low or just right? Fits?

Speaker 3 (27:19):
I guess it's just right Since I uh a second
ago bumped him ahead of BTJ, I've now got him
at wide receiver thirty But who knows, man like it
could be way too high. Or way too low or
just right. But I do know that since joining the Jets,
Ady Mitchell is getting something like a thirty percent target

(27:40):
share and a sixty percent air yard share. And he's
six foot two and two hundred and five pounds with
four point three five speed. So it would be pretty
foolish not to be intrigued by this guy. Like the
usage and athletic profile are just so attractive. But you know,
the Colts had him for a year and a half

(28:01):
and had no problem throwing him into the Sauce Gardner trade,
And before the Big Game last week, Mitchell had caught
three of thirteen targets in his first two games with
the Jets. So it's really hard to tell where this
ride is going, but I can't wait to find out.

Speaker 1 (28:16):
Deever, I can't really remember. I seem to recall liking
Mitchell better than you like coming into the NFL as
a prospect. You were lower on him, right, Yeah, I
was lower on him.

Speaker 2 (28:27):
I think it needed a lot that it needed to
clean up with his route running and separation, and you know,
there was a lot of things I felt like, you know,
when we get to this time, or at least prospect
time of the year, a lot of the big and
fast kind of covers up some warts for players and stuff.
So I was lower on him than consensus. But dude,
I mean, I think the ranking for him this week,
I've got him at wide receiver twenty eight I think

(28:48):
is appropriate, and I think the problem with him is
it's volatile. I think, honestly, the more I think about
ad Mitchell this week, it's like, I feel like in
rankings I need to make a stand. I either need
to fade him or go all in because either embrace
the volatility and the volume that he's gonna get, because
the reality is he's probably gonna end up as like

(29:10):
a top fifteen wide receiver or outside the top forty.
One of those things is probably gonna happen. With his volatility,
He's getting so much freaking volume. Like to fits this point.
Since week eleven, twenty eight point four percent target chair
sixty one point four percent are ar chair, a forty
one percent first read cheer. He is their passing offense basically,
so in a good matchup, I mean, because the Dolphins

(29:34):
since week nine, ninth most PPR points per target the
perimeter wide receivers, I'm just gonna stand on process and
say he hits, I'm probably gonna move him up even
further than the rankings, Like once we get other news
about like is Justin Herbert playing? Is he not playing
other guys that are on the fence, like what happens
with Marvin Harrison Junior and other guys, Like I'm probably

(29:55):
gonna bump ad up a little bit more and take
a more positive stand with him in rankings because again,
the volatility is there. But dude, it's it's like I
kind of feel like it's a binary decision. Either we're
in on him or you're not in on him. And
if he booms, he's probably a top twenty wide receiver
for the week.

Speaker 3 (30:11):
Yeah, worm, you and I do the Dynasty Show with
Scott Bogman, who's a big University of Texas fan, And
didn't you get the feeling that Bogman didn't know what
to make of ad Mitchell coming out of college, Like
I think he wanted to like him, but was also
sort of perplexed by what he saw from him at
you know, in college, Like he's just he is kind

(30:34):
of a boom bust weekly guy. I think he might
always be that. But the upside is just so intriguing,
Like if this guy can ever put it together and
the light totally comes on, look out, like there is
eight side.

Speaker 1 (30:48):
It is worth noting he has never played with an
accurate quarterback, and like, for like, I don't think that
is we can put all the blame for his you know,
lack of production on the offenses he's in. Like obviously
he like did Debra's point about like needing to improve
as a route runner, Like there was stuff he needed
to work on too, but like, it is worth noting
that he, like play, you know, has not played with

(31:10):
a good quarterback.

Speaker 3 (31:11):
Queen yours, you're not You're not calling Quah viewers in college.

Speaker 2 (31:16):
You know, don't speak bad about quin yours. Bogmin's probably
hearing that somewhere.

Speaker 1 (31:19):
Out in the I hope b it's Raven Steelers a
week souse. I hope Bagman is hearing me talk trash
about his team. But yeah, Quinners, you know Anthony Richardson, Uh,
you know, I know Daniel Jones had a good start
to the year, but obviously there's a lot of mouse
to feed in Indianapolis, and and then you know, justin fields,
like like he hasn't had a great quarterback to be
paired with, so worth noting.

Speaker 2 (31:42):
One last thing, a point on Ady Mitchell. I think
what the Colts drafted him, they weren't expecting Alec Piers
to take the next step and be the guy that
he's become over the last two seasons. Like, you don't
make that draft pick too, because you have faith in
Alec Peers and Alec Pierce balling out over the last
two years. And again, another guy that came into the

(32:02):
NFL with crazy physical tools but needing to round a
lot of other parts of his game. And since he's
done that, that's what's kept Adie Mitchell off the field.
And you know, maybe it's a combination of other things
Ady had to improve too. But also this is also
an Alex Pierce conversation.

Speaker 1 (32:18):
Yeah, it's a good point. You can let autopilot manage
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(32:41):
Fantasypros dot com, slash my Playbook, or on the Fantasy
Pros app. Next game in the early slate. Here, guys,
Saints at Buccaneers a mecha Agbuka has finished outside the
top forty wide receivers in three straight weeks, and if
you take out his big game against the Patriots, his
average finish in the last six games is wide receiver
forty nine, and yet he is still being ranked inside

(33:02):
the consensus top fifteen wide receivers for the week deeper.
I want to start with you, Fitz, and I talked
a bit about this yesterday with Jake, so I want
to get your opinion here first and then we'll go
back to fits on this. Where are you ranking in
mecha Buka? What do you think about his ranking inside
the top fifteen.

Speaker 2 (33:16):
I think it's too high. I mean, I've got him
at wide receiver twenty and I'm going to drop him further.
Like I basically I left all that. I'm going to
revisit all of that today and on Saturday for the
primer because we need Mike Evans news. That's what I
think about this. We need Mike Evans news, and I
want to be very clear about how I'm contextualizing this.
Mike Evans did not go out with the hamstring injury,

(33:38):
and Mike Evans did not go out with the knee
or any other joint or soft tissue and stuff like that.
If Mike Evans is medically cleared, and he has been.
This comes down to a conditioning standpoint type of thing
where if Mike Evans is active this week, I think
he's going to play close to his normal role. Now
I'm not saying eighty to ninety percent of snaps, but
can he play sixty five seventy percent and have like

(34:01):
a seventy five percent route share definitively possible. So from
a conditioning standpoint, if Mike Evans plays, I think it
means bad things for Mecca Abuka and it's gonna I mean,
I'm gonna drop him further in the rankings because when
Evans is on the field, he's there. He's the wide
receiver one. So my Ameca Abuka thoughts and feelings are
really tied to Mike Evans. So we need that news.

(34:23):
But I mean, I'm not going to move him up
the ranks.

Speaker 1 (34:26):
We before I toss it fits, I want to get
your opinion on this. We did a head to head
Abuka versus Justin Jefferson debro yesterday with Jake. Who would
you take between those two?

Speaker 2 (34:34):
I'm taking Jefferson.

Speaker 1 (34:36):
Okay, they're back to back in ecr uh fit. You've
had a day to think about it further from when
we talked about it with Jake. How you feeling about
Abuca today?

Speaker 3 (34:43):
Yeah, I'm still good and I've got aim at wide
receiver fourteen, and yeah, I know some of the recent
results have been bad. Although I do disagree with any
framing where you're like, well, if you take out the
huge game against the Patriots, you know, if we will.

Speaker 1 (34:58):
The point is that it's only been one good game
in the last you know, seven, So if you take
that out, it's like six of the last seven have
been like really really.

Speaker 2 (35:06):
It's also a Baker conversation.

Speaker 3 (35:07):
I know that always that game. It's very much a
Baker conversation. I mean, he has not averaged seven yards
per pass attempt in any game since Week six. That's
kind of crrect.

Speaker 2 (35:17):
That's also a Baker doesn't have weapons conversation too, Like
this offense has been bad because everybody's been freaking hurt.

Speaker 3 (35:22):
Yeah, I mean, a Buka's been the one, although he
kind of played through a hamstring injury for a while,
So I totally get the hesitation on Abuka. But for me,
it's largely about the target volume. He's averaging eight point
four targets a game this season nine point eight targets
game over his last six games, so I know it's

(35:43):
not just about the target counts. And again, I mean,
I think Abuka's recent slump is probably more about Baker
Mayfield than it is about Abuka himself. But even with
this recent slump, A Buka is still on pace for eleven
and twenty one yards and averaging fifth teen point two
yards per catch. So I still think he's really really

(36:03):
good and I want to keep playing him.

Speaker 2 (36:06):
So what do you think about the Evans conversation? Like it?
Do you think he plays and is he going to
play close to a similar role if he does, what
do you I mean, does that move you want to
Eggbuk at all? Oh?

Speaker 3 (36:16):
Yeah, I mean I'm doing this tentatively. I do not
have Mike Evans ranked as of now, and we'll see
if he plays this week or if they give him
like one ramp up week because they just they opened
his window this week, right, Yeah, guys typically don't come
back the first week that their window is open. Like
I think that happens well under fifty percent of the time.

(36:37):
So I'm kind of thinking Evans doesn't play. Wouldn't shock
me if he did, And then obviously off to move
a Buka down and I'll probably not have him inside
the top twenty.

Speaker 2 (36:47):
Yeah, I'll probably have both of the guys as like
wide receiver twos if once we get the Evans news.
So I'm I'm kind of like shading Igbuka down with
the idea, but like say Evans, say Evans is held out,
then Buka is probably gonna bump up a little bit
for me, like probably like wide receiver sixteen ish.

Speaker 3 (37:06):
Yeah, and the other thing, don't debro You know the
Saints who the the Buccaneers are going against, they kind
of get bashed in the slot, right or no they're
good or are they are they good against?

Speaker 2 (37:15):
So they're yeah, they're they're better.

Speaker 3 (37:17):
They're better against the slot. So they kind of get
bashed by outside receivers and like there are no cornerback
matchups to fear here kool Aid mcchinistry is not fine,
but like he's he's not, they're not playing good. Yeah,
So I don't dislike anything about the matchup. I think
it's more of a plus than a minus. So even
even if Evans does come back, I think in most

(37:39):
twelve team leagues, at least the ones where you start
three receivers, I think a BUCA is still in the
starter realm.

Speaker 1 (37:47):
Ye fits if Evans is back, would you rather start
at BUCA or Zay Flowers?

Speaker 2 (37:52):
Oh?

Speaker 3 (37:52):
Man, that's tough. Probably probably still ABUCA.

Speaker 2 (37:56):
I'm playing at BUKA. I have him ranked one spot
above z A And this is just more again going
back to that, to me, that's more of a Lamar
Jackson take. For me, I just I don't And again
I feel like I'm having the same conversation guys, Like
we can rewind to a few weeks ago when I
was like, man, you know what, Josh Allen's really been
struggling as a passer, and then he goes out and

(38:16):
makes me freaking eat it the next week, and I'm
I feel like we're having the same kind of conversation
with Lamar Jackson. But I have even less faith Lamar
because all the peripheral numbers I've been god off.

Speaker 3 (38:26):
Actually you know what I'm gonna I'm gonna reverse course
on that.

Speaker 1 (38:29):
I would start say, okay, yeah, I mean, I mean
day did almost have a big touchdown on third, Like,
if it were not for a bad OPI call, it
would it would have looked better. I mean, not that
we need to go back to the Ravens, but but
like to your point, de Bro, like I know you
said it didn't count. At the end of the day,
he was really close to a three hundred yard game
with multiple passing touchdowns if no Isa likely doesn't fumble

(38:51):
and Zay doesn't get called for the OPI so.

Speaker 2 (38:54):
No that that that's fine, my better My bigger takeaway
with Lamar is that even with the those plays and
stuff like that, his still deeper metrics about his accuracy
ass missing.

Speaker 1 (39:06):
He's missing throws he should not miss.

Speaker 2 (39:08):
Yeah, like he has looked objectively bad as a passer.

Speaker 1 (39:11):
Yeah that's true. All right, Yeah, sorry to drag us
back to the Ravens again.

Speaker 2 (39:15):
I mean, it's a given. It's a given.

Speaker 1 (39:17):
We I thought, say Flowers is a good comp It's
clearly it was because I just couldn't make up his mind.
Bengals at Bill's a very fun game here in the
early slate. It's pretty rare you get these two quarterbacks
going head to head and it's not in some kind
of prime time. Obviously, it wasn't clear that Burrow was
going to be back here, just still recently, so that's

(39:37):
kind of why it's still, you know, settled into that
early slate. But we get a fun one here. Are
we getting the big fireworks in this game people are
hoping for? And I want you guys to pick a
player you are actually fading in this matchup, since obviously
everybody is very excited here fits, I'll start with you.

Speaker 3 (39:51):
I do think we get fireworks even if it's cold.
I kind of look back at at Buffalo home games
in December this week to see if that holds down
scoring at all. It does not. There have been a
lot of shootout games in Buffalo in December, so barring
any blizzard, and we're not getting that this weekend. Like,
I think you can just start, guys with confidence and

(40:13):
not worry too much about the cold. Looking at my rankings,
I'm not really fading anyone from this game except for
maybe Khalil Shakir and I like him. He's clearly the
bills number one receiver, but he's not really a big
play guy. Shakira is averaging ten point three yards per catch.
He's not a consistent touchdown scorer. He has three touchdowns
this season, none in his last five games, one in

(40:35):
his last eight games, and even the catch volume hasn't
been totally consistent. Here is catch totals over his last
five games seven seven, one eight one. So I just
I think people are a little higher on Khalil Shakir
than they could be, at least in ECR.

Speaker 1 (40:57):
Yeah, two of the last three games having been wide
receiver ninety eight and wide receiver one hundred and four
in scoring for the week is not a great look.
But you know he does get the Bengals defense here. Deever,
what do you think do you expect firereks and who's
somebody you would fade in this matchup?

Speaker 2 (41:14):
I'm not expecting, Like what's the total ad on this game?
Like I know it's in the fifties, right, Like.

Speaker 1 (41:20):
Let me pull it up. I don't have it up in.

Speaker 2 (41:21):
FA I know it was like in the fifties, Like if.

Speaker 1 (41:24):
It wasn't the low fifties when I looked early in
the week and a half last it was one of
those two early in the week.

Speaker 2 (41:30):
Yeah, like I I mean, call me crazy, guys, like
I'm more on the under on this game. Like it's
not that I'm not expecting scoring, but I'm not expecting
that much scoring. And I guess, like out of anybody,
like I'm still starting him, but like fading him, Like
I agree with Fitzi abou Khalil Shakir. When I first
opened ECR this week, I was like, really, okay, where

(41:51):
we got Khalil Shakir as a top twenty four wide receiver?
That feels ballsy but whatever, So yes, I have I
have Khalil Shakier as a wide receiver three. But I
guess the guy that I'm a little bit lower than consensus,
Like I've got him like one or two spots, so
like I'm not fading him. He's a QB one. But
like with Joe Burrow, like second game back, like the Bills,
they're not rushing the pass are good, so like you

(42:13):
could make a conversation, Okay, he's gonna get clean pockets,
but their past defense has been really good. Like over
since Week nine, eighth fewest yards per attempt, second lowest
passer rating, the tenth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. I mean,
all those things are conducive to scoring fantasy points. So
going against his pass defense, and we still don't have
word about T Higgins. Is he going to play? Is

(42:35):
he not going to play? I kind of lean that,
like maybe he's out again. He's been limited like well,
I mean.

Speaker 3 (42:41):
No, he was. He was full on Thursdays full, but
he has not officially come out of concussion PROTOCOLOGE. Yeah,
so I think I think the progress points to him
playing okay, And I think that, I mean, but we
know we also I think those Bills pass stats are
partly because they're a run funnel, because it's so easy

(43:03):
to run on them. And Deebro I cannot take the under.
I've seen the Bengals try to tackle people. I can't
take that.

Speaker 1 (43:10):
And say, like it's not even about the offenses. The
defenses on both sides. Bills are so banged up that
Bengals are just straight up bad. Like I think this
game gets played in the sixties, if not maybe even
the seventies. Like I like the over, the total is
fifty three and a half. That has gone up from
where it was early in the week, and I frankly
don't care. Maybe that's a suckers bet, but I'm just like,
I don't Again, it's not even about the offenses. I

(43:30):
don't see how these defenses are capable of stopping a
good offense. And if these quarterbacks show up and play
anywhere close to their a game, like I think this
could be the highest scoring game of the season. Like
that's true, that's the state of these defenses. So I'm
in on a big scoring game here.

Speaker 2 (43:45):
I mean, I will say to our points earlier kind
of did project a bounce back game for the Ravens
last week, and they kind of suck versus that defense.
So we'll see.

Speaker 1 (43:54):
But they sucked because of turnovers, which are are fluky.
It wasn't I mean were They also have their own
problems right now, Like I think the Bills offense is
gonna be capable of taking advantage of a back defense
more than the Ravens.

Speaker 2 (44:06):
Oh, I mean, we'll see. The other point is the
Bills have that. I mean, they've shown their wards over
the last few weeks too, So I mean we do
have to mention that it's not like the Bills have
been just like crushing teams. I mean outside of like
James Cook just running down people's throats, Like what has
been working in the Bills offense? Josh Allen playing Superman?

Speaker 1 (44:25):
I think, I think James Cook can run all over
the Bengals.

Speaker 2 (44:28):
Though well yeah, I mean you bet the overs on
James Cook. But what else outside of that has been
working in the Bills offense, Like not much of anything.
And do we get Dalton kin Kid back? Joshua Palmer's
banged up. We just talked about more worries about Khalil Shakir.
I mean, these these are all valid points.

Speaker 3 (44:43):
Kin Kaid will absolutely work against the Bengals if he
comes back. I mean, if you have a Kinkaid, you
are praying you get him because of how little the
Bills have gotten from their other receivers, well any of
their receivers besides Shakira maybe, And like we know how
the Bengals give it up to tight end like if
we and really that's the only thing about Kinkaid. His

(45:04):
target volume. Man, if he plays in this game, you
gotta figure he's getting at least six or seven targets against.

Speaker 1 (45:09):
I mean, is a good this is a good point
I know going along in this game, but is would
you start Dawson Knox if Kincaid is out just given?
Like I know it's Dawson Knox, but this is the
tight end matchup.

Speaker 3 (45:21):
Yeah, but it's also like Jackson Hawes kind.

Speaker 2 (45:24):
You're gonna get two Jackson Hawes touchdowns to watch.

Speaker 3 (45:27):
Soutu and both of these guys are so limited I
can't I'm not starting those guys over.

Speaker 2 (45:32):
Like it would really depend on your options. Yeah, yeah,
Like like I would feel better about I'd still.

Speaker 3 (45:39):
Start like Kate dott And over Dawson Knox.

Speaker 2 (45:41):
You know I would start DJ Hawkinson over freaking Dawson Knocks.
I'll just say that.

Speaker 1 (45:45):
Okay, let's go to the late slate here, Broncos at Raiders.
The first matchup between these two is one of the ugliest,
most boring Thursday night matchups we have we've had all year.
Are there any players you were expecting to perform much differently?
I almost did better, but you can say worse too,
so much different In the rematch debro, I'm.

Speaker 2 (46:02):
Just gonna take the low hanging fruit. I'm just gonna
sit here and take take the easy out here, r J. Harvey,
because he's he's got the starter's job. I mean, dude,
you know he had six touches eighteen total yards. I
The Las Vegas Raiders run defense has been back and forth.
Harvey hasn't had like the big breakout game. Would it
surprise anybody if that happens and he runs for two

(46:23):
touchdowns in this game? No, So I'll just I'll take
the easy out here and say RJ. Harvey.

Speaker 1 (46:29):
Yeah, I probably should have said besides r J. Harvey,
but I didn't see it wasn't exceptable.

Speaker 2 (46:32):
You didn't. You didn't sign I like, I'm old, I
had to.

Speaker 1 (46:35):
Where's Harvey rinked for?

Speaker 2 (46:36):
You?

Speaker 1 (46:36):
Did you say? He's harby fifteen ACR. I've probably and
again that's behind like Javonte Gibbs who have already played
so a little higher, not including them.

Speaker 2 (46:45):
I've got him at RB thirteen. I mean, I think
he's somewhere in that high end RB RB two conversation,
like I mean, like, but it's a conversation. It's like
do you feel better about r J. Harvey or Brest
Hall or Sakwon Barkley or the thought should have, say
the thought of Sakwon Barkley this year.

Speaker 3 (47:01):
You know, I've got RJ. Harvey ranked RB twelve. I'm
ahead of Debro and I don't even think RJ. I
don't think I need to go up. I don't think
Harvey's even looked good, to be honest with you, in
the last couple of weeks. Like his rushing yards overexpected.
I think he's I'd have to look at the number.
I don't know what it is, but I think it's underwater,
like he just hasn't been very impressive yet. But I

(47:22):
still think he's a good player, and we like the matchup.
Of course, when.

Speaker 1 (47:27):
When anybody ever has r J. Harvey ranked higher than
Deebra for a week, he becomes the Michael Jordan meme
of like and I took that personally. He needs to
make sure that he is no longer lower than whoever's done.

Speaker 2 (47:39):
I mean, RJ. Harvey two touchdowns last week was a
top five back. I mean, I'm not going to rule
it out that he could score two touchdowns again.

Speaker 1 (47:46):
Good Where do you think real quickly? The highest ranked
expert in all of our rankings has Harvey this week?
Who you don't have to guess who it is, Like,
where do you think he is ranking? Is for the
highest RB ten RB seven? Wow, there are three people.
There's an RB seven and there are two RB nines.

(48:06):
So agreat you got you got a lot of work
to do to get up there.

Speaker 2 (48:10):
They're sipping this week.

Speaker 1 (48:11):
Good lord, Fitz, Who are you expecting to perform differently
in this week?

Speaker 2 (48:16):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (48:16):
I mean Bronck Powers had one catch for thirty one
yards in that first game against the Broncos. Tough matchup
for sure, but I'm expecting more than one catch for Bowers.
And in that first Raiders Broncos game, Troy Franklin led
the Broncos and targets with nine, only finished with forty yards,
but he did have a touchdown. Courtland Sutton had four targets.
I expect that to be different. Troy Franklin had a

(48:38):
snap's cut last week, only played about fifty percent of
Denver's offensive snaps, twelve fewer in fact, than rookie receiver
Pat Bryant. So I think Troy Franklin investors should be
a little careful starting him this week. Just know that
you might not get the sort of usage you've been
getting from him. Most of the season, and I'm expecting
more from Courtland Sutton in the rematch Less try Franklin.

Speaker 1 (49:02):
If you want a chance to win, b Jon Robinson
and Drake London signed mini helmet for free courtesy of
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do is head to Fantasypros dot com slash contest, complete
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(49:24):
winner right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube,
be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so
you can be alerted when new episodes are up and
to claim your prize. Fits. Let's go to bears at Packers.
Christian Watson, Kyle Mnungui and DeAndre Swift are all ranked
within five spots of each other in the Week fourteen
Expert Consensus rankings and the Flex rankings. At least they
were when I put this together. I'll double check that

(49:44):
as you answer to see where they are now. How
would you rank those three against each other in this
game again, Christian Watson, Kyle Maanungu, and DeAndre Swift.

Speaker 3 (49:51):
I've them bunched pretty tightly in my flex rankings. Also,
I've got Christian Watson first, Swift, second, Manangui third Watson.
He does have a pretty wide range of outcomes because
he's a vertical threat. There's a ton of big play
potential with him. But if those deep shots aren't connecting,
he could absolutely go belly up, especially in a cold

(50:12):
day like it's going to be really cold at Green
Bay Sunday, So we'll see how the passing games work.
The Bears running game has been just incredible. Can't say
enough about how good their offensive line has been playing
like these guys they went out and got in free agency,
like Dolman and Thooney and Jonah Jackson, like they are
just mashing. Since their Week five by the Bears have

(50:33):
averaged one hundred and seventy nine point six rushing yards
a game. That's just nuts, and the Packers run defense
is at least decent, although we'll see how the loss
of Demonte Wyatt to a season ending ankle injury hurts them.
Even if the Bears aren't running for one hundred and
seventy nine yards in this game, like it's still possible
one of Swift or Managhai hits it as a pretty

(50:56):
good game, but like you're not often going to get
both of those guys smashing, although we've kind of seen
it lately, Like the odds say that's not going to happen,
and I tend to lean a little more towards Swift,
who's been less touchdown de Pennant.

Speaker 1 (51:12):
So interestingly, Menunguy and Swift are only three spots apart
at running back. They are eleven spots apart at flex.
So Manungui has dropped down, He's still got the questionable
tag for the week. Watson and Swift are still very
very close in the consensus flex rankings. Like I said,
Manunguy is not crazy far, but is a little bit
further down now the clear third according to consensus. Deebra,

(51:33):
how do you see it?

Speaker 2 (51:35):
I've got him ordered DeAndre Swift, Christian Watson and Kyle Manungai,
and I think all three of them are fantastic plays.
I think Ben Johnson gave us the blueprint and the
script of what he's going to do, or at least
try to do to the Packers this week, I think
it is hide Caleb Williams as much as humanly possible
and run the ever loving piss out of the ball.
And they've been able to do it, to Fitzia's point,

(51:56):
and also to Fitzi's point, like the Green Bay run
defense has shown some gives since week nine their fifteenth
and explosive run rate, they've given up the eleventh most
rushing yards and they've given up the fourteenth highest yards
after contact pert tentph and that's before we factor in
losing Wyatt. So I think Ben Johnson showed us what
he wants to do last week. He showed us the
Bears can impose their will in the ground and hide

(52:18):
Caleb Williams. And so I love swift amanon Guy both
his plays this week. And Christian Watson maybe like dude.
Since Week eleven, the wide receiver twelve and Fantasy points
per game, he has taken off as the clear wide
receiver one. I don't care if Matthew Golden plays. I
don't care if Jade Reid plays. I think they cannibalize
each other. I think Watson plays a different role and

(52:41):
he is outside of the worries of those guys, you know,
factoring into his workload and just for everybody at home.
Since week eleven, Christian Watson has had a twenty eight
percent target chair and a thirty six percent first read chair.
I think he's headed for another big day.

Speaker 1 (53:01):
I shouted out, you had a tweet with some of
these stats, and I read it on the show on
the Thursday show when we were talking about Christian Watson. TI, bro,
I know you've been dude. He's been awesome straight up
all yeah, so impressive, just like stepping right in from
the from the injury. I did not expect this that
from this. I liked Watson as a player in general.
I did not expect this from him coming back this year.

Speaker 2 (53:22):
Oh I didn't either. And real fast, before we move
off of this game, I think this is also them
putting Christian Watson into this role and giving him the
extension earlier whenever he was rehabbing. I think all of
those signs point to run. They're gonna move on from
Romeo Dobbs. I think this is putting it at Christian
Watson's feet. Can you be our wide receiver one? Moving forward?

(53:44):
And so far, dude, he's answering the.

Speaker 3 (53:46):
P and by the way, for a guy who had
a lot of injury problems early in his career, Christian
Watson is not the guy you would have expected. He
got hurt in Week eighteen last year. He actually technically
got hurt in twenty twenty five and came back in
eight from a torn acl and he's playing well and
playing the best football of his career.

Speaker 2 (54:06):
And do y'all notice this week who's not on the
injury report For the first time this entire season. Christian
Watson not on the injury report for the Packers this week.

Speaker 1 (54:16):
We've got one more game in the late afternoon slate
rams at Cardinals. We can go quick on this one.
I just want to ask about Matthew Stafford. He has
finished outside the top fifteen quarterbacks in two of the
past three weeks. Obviously, had that very poor game against
the Panthers with the interceptions, breaking his streak of not
throwing any interceptions. He's ranked us the consensus QB three
against Arizona this week. I was surprised by this. Obviously,

(54:38):
Stafford has been very, very good for most of the
year in general, I'm not surprised that he's being ranked
as like just kind of throw away the Carolina game
and expect to bounce back. Three is pretty high for
a guy who absolutely does not run. I know there's
four teams on by. I know guys like Lamar Jackson
haven't been playing well, Joe Burrow still coming back off
his injury. Again, three just feels a little high to me. Deebro,

(55:00):
do you see it as high or are you in
line with consensus?

Speaker 2 (55:03):
I'm in line with the ECR, and I think this
is more of a take of other quarterbacks being on
by having tough matchups like Mahomes going against the freaking
Houston Texans, Jalen Hurt's not playing good and going against
the Chargers. I think that's more of what and Lamar
Jackson playing bad so like all these other quarterbacks that
are usually above him in consensus. And the other part
about this, dude, I think we get a pissed off

(55:24):
Rams team after last week. This should be the big
bounce back game for Stafford. I know will Johnson is back,
they've been better, but Garrett Garrett Williams and the slot
has still been horrible. So I do think this is
a bounce back game. And if if the Rams wouldn't
running up and say, look like we're we're re cementing
the Matthew Stafford MVP talk. Good spot to do it, Fitz.

Speaker 1 (55:47):
What do you think of By the way, QB three.
That's behind Dak Prescott, whos already played, so of the
guys still left to go. It's really QB two.

Speaker 3 (55:54):
Yes, and I agree with it. He committed turnovers last week.
That's out a character.

Speaker 2 (55:59):
Yep.

Speaker 3 (56:00):
You might have heard of these guys named Puka Naku
and Devanta Adams. They're pretty good. Can I just drop
some interesting numbers on DeVante Adams? So do eleven touchdowns
in his last six games, which is just crazy. He
scored at least one touchdown in each of those six games,
multiple touchdowns and four of them. What's wild is that

(56:21):
over that six game touchdown spree, Adams has averaged forty
eight point eight receiving yards a game and he has
scored a touchdown on forty two point three percent of
his catches. That is crazy. And get this over, So
forty eight point eight receiving yards a game during this
crazy touchdown streak first six games of the season, sixty

(56:43):
six yards a game, only three touchdowns.

Speaker 1 (56:46):
Go figure man. Yeah, that's funny. Uh. I'm not down
on Stafford. I don't want to sound like I'm trying
to fade him this week. I just was surprised to
see QB three, But there are other factors, and like
you said, guys on buy things like that, We're definitely
all expecting a bounce back this week from the Rams.
Let's go to Sunday night football. Can the Chiefs overcome

(57:06):
their inconsistency and offensive line injuries against what I think
is the best defense in the NFL. You could argue
like Seattle Denver, like who one of and in my opinion,
the best defense in the NFL. Can the Chiefs overcome
what they've been dealing with as of late fits.

Speaker 3 (57:21):
It's going to be a struggle. There's a reason this
game has a Vegas total of forty two at hard
Rock Bet. And I agree with you. I think the
Texans two of the best defense. And you know, for
all the love that Miles Garrett and Micah Parsons get,
Will Anderson is looking like Lawrence Taylor Junior these days.

(57:41):
I mean he has just been insane, whether it's you know,
just speed or his ability to just crush the pocket.
I mean, Will Anderson is playing a defensive Player of
the Year level. He's not going to get it because
Miles Garrett is going to get it, but Anderson should
absolutely be in the top three. There. The one guy
I've some hope for in the Chiefs this week is

(58:02):
Rashi Rice. I've got a wide receiver three, which I
know is above consensus, and maybe it is too high,
but the Texans are kind of a slot funnel like
in terms and I think I might have mentioned this
on another show I was on with you worm in
terms of the fantasy points the defenses have allowed to
slot receivers as a percentage of the total fantasy points

(58:23):
they've allowed to receivers, Texans are fourth highest in giving
up slot points, behind only the forty nine Ers, Bills,
and Colts. So I still think Rice can can get
over in this game, but I don't want to bet
on anything else in the Chiefs offense.

Speaker 2 (58:40):
Debra shout out to Will Anderson second in the NFL
behind only freaking Aiden Hutchinson and Hurries this year. Yeah,
I agree with everything FITZI said, and I'm just going
to encapsulate this by telling everybody out there right now,
I've already bet the Houston money line at over at
hard rock plus one fifty. Bet it, enjoy it, love

(59:01):
it case. He's not winning the freaking ball game. They're not.

Speaker 1 (59:04):
Nope, what's the spread? I was on the total?

Speaker 2 (59:07):
Three?

Speaker 3 (59:07):
Is it three?

Speaker 2 (59:08):
It's three? Yeah. I the other part about this, I
think three and a half on hard rock bet. I
think the Houston offense has a good day throwing the ball,
and I think Houston wins this freaking ball game. I
think their defense is going to smother Mahomes. It's going
to look rough.

Speaker 1 (59:24):
We do a second question on Sunday Night Football. Every
week we highlight our favorite three and four stop star prop.
Excuse me, we highlight our favorite three and four star
props from the prop bet cheat sheet ahead of Sunday
Night Football. Deber, what's your favorite three or four star
prop for this week?

Speaker 2 (59:40):
Just kind of alluded to him man Jaden Higgins over
three and a half receptions, that's four stars on the
prop bet cheat sheet. And what do you want to
talk about, Like, Okay, this is too high coverage and
Jadan Higgins has a thirty percent target per round run
rate against too high since week ten? Or we want
to mention that the Chiefs have been giving it up
to perimeter wide receivers since Week nine, there giving up

(01:00:00):
the fourth highest pass rating when target.

Speaker 1 (01:00:02):
Yeah, jayde Higgins, give me that easy over to pull
back the curtain. Debra first sent in a prop that
was a two star props so we didn't want to
use it, and it was a Jaden Higgins prop and
we were like, it actually needs to be another one.
He was like, all right, I'll find another Jaden Higgins
Like he was flowing to pick Jayden Higgins at the.

Speaker 2 (01:00:18):
Over receiving yard spent the anytime touchdown. Just just Jye Niggins,
Jay Niggins, Jack Natan Higgs fits.

Speaker 1 (01:00:23):
What's your favorite prop?

Speaker 4 (01:00:24):
Here?

Speaker 3 (01:00:25):
Xavier Worthy under three and a half receptions And you
know what I just said about the Texans pass defense
being kind of a slot funnel, It means they smother
outside receivers. And Worthy has had three or fewer catches
in five of his last eight games anyway, and those
games were against worse defenses than the Texans except for
maybe the Broncos, and Worthy only had three catches against them.

Speaker 1 (01:00:48):
Those were our top prop bets for Sunday Night Football
this week. Courtesy of Betting Pros you can check out
our NFL prop bet she sheet at Bettingpros dot com.
Slash Props Premium subscribers have access to our five star
prop bets, which have a fifty eight percent win rate,
and we're up over eighty five units this season. Luckily,
we've also got a special offer for everyone to unlock
a month of Betting Pros Premium for free. Download the
Betting Pros app today and use promo code FP one

(01:01:10):
month at checkout to redeem your offer. That's the number
one not spelled out. Let's go to Monday Night Football
here to wrap things up, guys, Eagles at Chargers. AJ
Brown finally delivered for fantasy managers last week, but the
rest of the offense struggled and the Eagles only scored
fifteen points against the Bears. Can Aj Brown be trusted again?
Or will this be more of a game for Hurtz, Barkley, Smith, Goddard, etc.

(01:01:31):
Anybody else here fits.

Speaker 3 (01:01:33):
Trust It is not a good word to use with
the Eagles offense these days. I don't know if there's
anything you can trust in Kevin Patillo's system, but I
have Aj Brown ranks wide receiver ten and under no circumstances,
what I ever consider benching him except maybe in a
guillotine league where everyone's got an all star team this
deep in the season.

Speaker 2 (01:01:53):
Debra, Yeah, I mean I'm starting aj Brown regardless at
this point because the time you sit him, you're gonna
you're gonna hate life. But I will also point to yeah, man,
like it's you're starting Saquon Barkley again, this is just
the idea of Saquon Barkley. But I will say that,
like I've been on this train the entire year, the

(01:02:14):
Los Angeles Chargers run defense is massively overrated, Like they're
not giving up a ton of rushing yards and all
that kind of stuff like that you peel back like
the Deeper Metrics' fourth highest misstackle rate since Week nine,
tenth highest rushing success rate. Saquon's had a lot of
good spots to get going. This is another one. We'll
see if he can actually do it. But the guy
that I want to highlight, I was surprised by this man, Like,

(01:02:37):
why the heck is Dallas Goddard so freaking low in ECR,
Like he's tied in freaking sixteen. Why, Like I don't
I don't get it fitsy go ahead before, like I
just spit the love letter on Goddard this week, like
why is he that low? Oh?

Speaker 3 (01:02:52):
Because so like back in Week ten they played the
Packers and he had I think three catches for four
two yards and like six targets. Those were his highest
catch yardage and target totals of like the last seven
weeks or something like that. He's been terrible, that's why.

Speaker 2 (01:03:12):
So I'll point back to, Okay, he's got touchdown equity
in this offense and low key. The Chargers have not
been good at defending tight ends. Like, yes, we could
talk about okay, they've given up the six fews receiving
yards per game to tight ends. That's more of a
function of they have not been like tight ends have
not been targeted versus them, and talk about brock Bowers

(01:03:33):
versus the Chargers also, like look at what they've done
versus tight ends on a per play basis, like fourth
views targets per game to the position that they've faced.
But when teams have targeted the tight ends, they've given
up the twelve highest yards per reception and the eighth
most receiving touchdowns per game to that position. So I

(01:03:53):
think Dallas godd should be a top twelve tight end
this week.

Speaker 3 (01:03:56):
Yeah. Oh I, by the way, tight end twenty six
in PPR points per game since Week seven.

Speaker 2 (01:04:03):
Yeah, it's a fair point.

Speaker 1 (01:04:04):
I do a predictions show with ericson early in the week,
and my number one best like bet we had to do,
like a hard rock best bet of the week, Mine
was the Eagles minus two and a half. I think
they're going to smash the Chargers. Honestly, do you guys
think I'm crazy for that? Like, I just I think
the Eagles are going to win this game running a well.

Speaker 2 (01:04:21):
I think there's a possibility we get Trey Lance this week.
Like I don't. I'm not believing all this motive that
Jim Harbaugh is like dealing out there. Trey Lance is
taking taking first team reps. And if there's anybody in
the entire freaking out NFL we cannot trust with injury
information reporting, it's freaking Jim Harball. And for all the
Chargers fans out there that hate that take. Really, so,

(01:04:44):
how much conversations have we had about like QJ was
dealing with a hamstring injury and how many conversations and
details have you heard about a Marian Hampton. Oh okay,
I mean.

Speaker 1 (01:04:54):
Even if Herbert was health fully healthy, I wouldn't like
this offensive line going up against the Eagles.

Speaker 2 (01:04:58):
Got one working hand and robot.

Speaker 3 (01:05:00):
Okay, I'm still taking Kyle Shanahan as being less trustworthy.

Speaker 1 (01:05:04):
Sorry, No, that's fair, that's fair, super fair.

Speaker 2 (01:05:07):
They're writing in the same clown car FITSI.

Speaker 1 (01:05:09):
All right, We're off up there. Thanks everybody for tuning in.
Best of luck getting into the playoffs here. If this
is kind of a do or die week for you,
if you have any other questions about specific start, sit, matchup,
you know, anything, you know. The guys are on Discord
all the time. FITS will be doing a Twitter takeover
on Sunday. We'll have opportunities to answer more specific questions.
Please hit us up on social, discord, everywhere else, but

(01:05:29):
best of luck here this week. Thanks for tuning in
for Debro and Fits. I'm Ryan Warmley. We'll see you
next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy
Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free
way to support us is by leaving a positive review
on Apple podcasts, at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or
on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok At

(01:05:50):
Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube
dot com Slash Fantasypros.

Speaker 2 (01:06:14):
About the sh

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FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 14 (Ep. 1882)

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