Sharp or Square - NFL Week 15 Bets: Falcons-Buccaneers, Bills-Patriots, Lions-Rams, Packers-Broncos, Vikings-Cowboys and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bat. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise
guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined
as always by my co host, my companion, Mike Campadre
Professional Better Simon Hunter Eto.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Simon, Chad.

Speaker 3 (00:26):
Are we doing, buddy well?

Speaker 2 (00:28):
Listen?

Speaker 1 (00:29):
I really want to ask how you're doing because I
was on the Eagles last night and it was excruciating.
But I know how I felt when the Bears played
valiantly and didn't win. If the Bears had played terribly
and given it away, I know how I would feel.

Speaker 2 (00:49):
So this is a safe space. Unload, my friend.

Speaker 3 (00:54):
It's not a safe space. This is what the people want.
They love miserable Eagles fans. I know you sick best.
I get it though. I mean, we've we've been on
these primetime games and like you know, they're zooming in
on these Eagles fans who are just dying like I am,
and I get it, like you should basket our misery.
We just won the Super Bowl. But yeah, just an awful,

(01:17):
awful experience, especially if you had money on the Eagles.
They just dominated that game in every way. Uh just
could could couldn't stop doing whatever they wanted, running the game,
running the ball defensively. The only weakness was Jalen Hurts,
who just had a total meltdown of a game. Four
picks and yeah, like we joked, obviously, I said Jalen

(01:40):
Hurts is second best quarterback in the NFL. I still
stand by it, but heard a lot of noise last
night because he had a meltdown, terrible game, And you know,
I still think the read on it was correct. I mean,
Herbert twelve of twenty six, one hundred and thirty nine
yards and he just only could hold the ball in
one hand anytime. He scrambled on their punch at every time,

(02:00):
like they just were. The Chargers were dying to lose
that game, and Herts just couldn't help themselves. So in
incredible game for professionals. I was with a lot of
pros who loved the Chargers. I think a lot of
books went for two and a half all the way
down to one by kick. Yeah, and they're all over
the under and they needed every bit of those four

(02:21):
picks to get that under and that win on the Chargers.
So yeah, that was that was a sharp game and
just a brutal, brutal loss as an Eagles fan, so
eating it right now and even worse. I told you,
HBO right now has a basic in nd season Hard Knocks,
and I can't watch it because it's just been two
weeks of hell for Eagles. We were eight and two
headed into the hard Knocks. We were now eight and five,
losing three straight games, and it's just it's as low

(02:43):
as it gets. But the Cowboys are breathing down their
next It's gonna be really interesting in the next four weeks.

Speaker 1 (02:49):
Why can't they block up any scheme to get Barkley
any any freedom on any of these interior runs.

Speaker 3 (03:00):
Out Lane Johnson for multiple weeks and they've lost those
three games. He's been out so talk all the time.
He's very important. But you know, they were winning queen
flip games. They lost Dallas a coin flip game they
should have won. They lost his Chargers game of coin
flip game they probably should have won. So it's like,
once again, Eagles do have a lot of problems, but
they could easily be sitting here eleven and three and
it's like, you know what, are you gonna bitch about?

(03:20):
So it's football. It's just it's these coin flip games
and they're just not hitting right now. I just need
to sleep, Honestly. I'm just watched that game. Work through
the night and I try to focus my work, but
there isn't a minute that goes by. You're just like,
why did they just throw that pass that overtime? Like
that pick was just so egregious. It's just yeah, I
just need to move on from that game. Unfortunately I

(03:42):
haven't been able to yet.

Speaker 1 (03:43):
Well, we went three and two last week and our
five Yale picks from our Sunday morning show. You can
track all those picks in the Sharper Square contest. Hopefully
you've all signed up for that.

Speaker 2 (03:57):
We won.

Speaker 1 (03:58):
I can't even remember who do we win with. We
won with the Saints, we won with the Rams, we
won with the Colts, We lots with the Jets.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
And the Browns.

Speaker 3 (04:05):
The Jets, I'm sorry, we went.

Speaker 2 (04:07):
With the Jacks. That's right against the Cults.

Speaker 1 (04:10):
Thanks to the thousands and thousands of you who did
sign up, the launch has been a huge success.

Speaker 2 (04:17):
So all thanks to.

Speaker 1 (04:18):
You for the year thirty nine, thirty one through fourteen
weeks and our five favorite picks. This is our Tuesday show.
We're going to review the entire slate. We will nail
down the final five in the Sunday morning show. We'll
make those decisions after line moves, after injury updates, et cetera,
et cetera, et cetera. We make them as late as
we can so we can be part of the fun

(04:40):
process with all of you the rest of this season.

Speaker 2 (04:42):
Don't forget.

Speaker 1 (04:43):
You can watch that show on Sharper Square on YouTube
Sunday mornings.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
All right, Thursday Night football.

Speaker 1 (04:51):
Faden teams here Atlanta out of the playoffs, playing for
nothing at this point. Who knows who's going to be
the coach, Who knows who's going to be the GM
who knows who's going to be the quarterback. They're four
point dogs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Whoever since Baker
Mayfield kind of got injured, they have not been the

(05:11):
same team. They're seven to six, still in first place
in the NFC South, but the Banthers they're coming for them. Meanwhile,
the Wise guys are just clinging to the Falcons by
their fingernails. This line has moved from five and a
half to four and a half to four at hard Rock,

(05:31):
even after getting blown out with betting the Falcons against
Seattle with no Drake London. Drake len is not expected
to play this week either. It doesn't make any sense
to me. I know you don't want to bet the box,
but like, this team is clearly playing one dimensional football
in Atlanta on a losing team without Drake London.

Speaker 2 (05:53):
Why does everyone keep betting the Falcons.

Speaker 3 (05:56):
Yeah, I think that's just their models. Maybe keep thinking
the Falcons are undervalued and underrated, and we've been talking
about it. I just anytime you win with Kirk, it
feels you've gotten away with one. This year, he just
looks so bad and taking away the number one targ
on this offense is just really killed their offense. So yeah,
this this Bucks line, it's it's fishy. I honestly can't

(06:18):
can't get why it's going the other way because they
might be getting back Worth and Mike Evans, and you
know that's that's a huge deal to this offense. So
I'll take an early position here, especially now at the
four at hard Rock. I'll grab them on this Buck
side on the Thursday night home game and Atlanta you know,
last week they just got absolutely bullied in a lot
of ways. And you know, with Kirk in there just

(06:40):
feels like on a short week, playing that type of
physical game they just had with Seattle, couldn't ask for
a worse spot for them going against this Bucks team
that just had a horrible, horrible loss. So you expect
Baker and the guys on this Bucks team that bounce
back in a big way Spence, especially against this poorest
orlanthin we've talked about. They're just offensively, you would think
with Robson but I'll take a huge advantages right of

(07:01):
this Bucks run defense. But you've seen it. Teams have
just stacked the boxes. They're like, yeah, beat us with Kirk,
You're not beating us with John. So I'll be on
the chalk side here on the Thursday end of the books.

Speaker 1 (07:11):
It hasn't heard us betting chalk Thursday nights historically in
these home division games, short week team was something to
play for for sure. In Tampa Bay, Los Angeles Chargers,
who should have lost last night, they should be eight
and five visiting the Kansas City Chiefs six and seven,

(07:32):
clinging to playoff hopes. Look that Chargers team you almost
feel bad for Justin Herbert. They're winning by guts and guile.
They're winning by the other team making mistakes. They're winning
on fluky plays, lucky penalties, calls.

Speaker 2 (07:52):
That game was probably over.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
They were going a fourth down deep in their own
territory with less than two minutes left, and Quinyan Mitchell
gets called for a pass interference on a third and ten,
and all of a sudden after that, it gives the
Chargers a little bit of life. Then Justin Herbert stares
running these RPOs and running around the edge, and all

(08:14):
of a sudden they get back in a position to
tie the game. Then they win the game with Cameron Dicker. Oh,
by the way, that Jake Elliott miss after the interception.

Speaker 3 (08:23):
Oh, the chad Our one touchdown pass in the first half,
is that happens to be a holding call? Holding call?
I don't even get That's why I want to go
to the ref because I could to spend five minutes
of wasted time. I can't get around bad the refs are.
It's just so terrible.

Speaker 2 (08:36):
I got well, you know what, you know what.

Speaker 1 (08:38):
I want to get to the rest, but I want
to wait until the Raiders game because I have a
lot of thoughts on the internet kerfuffle going around about
was this game rigged? And all the people who lost
money on the Raiders covering against the Broncos at seven
and a half and eight and a half. I got
a lot of thoughts on this. We'll share them when
we get to the Raiders. I have thoughts on how
to fix it. We'll have a long conversation about it.

(09:00):
Kansas City as a three or better favorite at home
with Patrick Mahomes in the division about forty seven percent against.

Speaker 3 (09:11):
The spread, and that was when they were good.

Speaker 1 (09:14):
And that was when they were good. They don't have
downfield threats. They don't really have an explosive running game
right now. Patrick Mahomes is their only offensive weapon who
is reliable. They're playing without defensive tackle offensive tackles, and
then this week another guy got hurt. So I don't

(09:34):
want to better on neither of these teams because neither
of them are very reliable. But I would lean Chargers.
If someone said to me, I'm in a pick every game,
I would pick the Chargers.

Speaker 3 (09:45):
Interesting. Yeah, I really like the Chiefs. Again, like last week,
I was on them, but everything we talked about just
them losing their offensive tackles. There was just didn't make sense,
and we took before the show, the pros had bet
that up to five. So every week the professionals are
hitting this Chief side. I feel like this is the

(10:05):
week everyone's just gonna leave this Chiefs team for dead,
aren't they. No one's gonna believe in this chief team.
Now they're just totally over. I think they're fifty to
one for or maybe it's gone up. It might be
sixty to one now for them in Super Bowl, which
makes sense, right, they're just the path for them to
make the playoffs. Sixteen not even that if you in

(10:25):
real life, it feels like it's like five percent. It's
just they have to be what they were in the past,
which the team that wins close games, and this year
they're just not that team. I mean, Andy Reid, it's
coach email practice. Like you had that Houston game, Like
your defense in the second half. I think CJ was
zero for seven at that point. You're just dominating Doma.

Speaker 1 (10:46):
I went, honest to god, I had the Texans in
that game. You and I were not on the same
side in that game. I had the Texans. I went
to bed at halftime, I'm like, after that first drive,
like Chris Jones started to dominate, I'm like, I'm done.

Speaker 2 (10:59):
I'm not ware of my time on this.

Speaker 3 (11:01):
Yeah, it was just a lined up and then just
you know, Andy Reid following my homes letting him go
for that play and just all very bizarre and that
totally flipped the game, right, they get a touchdown I
think CJ and that exact turnover on downs and you
know it, props to Houston. But this Chiefs team, we've
had to hit a point where they're gonna start coming
back with value on the other side. I mean, this

(11:22):
is just insane. How many weeks in a row they've
let down. So I feel like matchup wise, this is
a great match for them. You have Herbert outdoors and
once again ten degrees. Like we're in a deep colt.
A lot of these games are about to talk about today.
They're all gonna be a freezing temperature. Doesn't matter if
at one o'clock or four o'clock anywhere from New Jersey
to Kansas City, it's all gonna be like ten degrees.

(11:43):
It's upcoming weekend. So Herbert outside one handed, I feel like, Okay,
they got away with the indoors in that environment. He
was horrible. I gave you the stats. He was horrible,
passing one pick, two fumbles, he lost one of the fumbles. Like,
he just was bad overall in the game. But he
got away with it because you know, he's a great
athlete with his legs and they just the Eagles gave

(12:03):
it to him. So this this has to be a
spot you back the Chiefs and they cover and win. Like,
if they don't win this game twenty to three, just
absolutely dominate with Spags defense. I wouldn't be shocked because
they've been so bad this year. But the Chiefs feels
like they've had everything going wrong these last couple of weeks.
It's going to turn around for them. They're just like
you said, as bad as they've looked, it's not really

(12:25):
all my homes. He's played pretty well. He's just trying
to survive how bad this offense is right now. So
I think they bounce back here. But I get it.
You're just you're like everyone else. It's hard to be
confident this Chiefs team. They've just been awful these last
five weeks.

Speaker 1 (12:37):
They just can't seem to get the ball down the field,
like any of the magic they had. Forget about any
refs issues, forget about sort of the close game issues
or the regression to the mean on what happened last year.
They're just offensively challenged. They don't have the weapons, and

(12:58):
so their offense is admitted to just whatever Mahomes can
do in the shortest amount of time possible because he
has no protection, and so they can't get the ball downfield,
and even when they can, the receivers aren't that great.

Speaker 3 (13:12):
So they got a little bit of the drops right now,
Like that game, he was getting the guys the balls.
They were just dropping it like Kelsey. You know, people
are killing the guy because he's adding these horrible drops,
and I get it, but it's like, what do you
want my Homes to do? He always goes to Kelsey
on third downs, right, so he's gonna live and die
with it like that pick. That's totally on Kelsey. He
knows that. And you know, people are killing Kelsey right now,

(13:33):
and you know the whole I mean, I don't know
where you're at with it, but I agree Gronk is
probably the better athlete. But there's a tight end. I
think Kelsey's had the longer career, they're the same age.
Gronk has been retired for like five years. So as
much as you want to kill Kelsey's an old man,
he's still doing it. You know. He's obviously lost the
step year with that pick. I don't know if that's
on age, that's just a fluke play. But yeah, it's

(13:56):
once again the vibes could not be like like the Eagles,
that could not be lower this Chief team? Is this
not rock bottom? Like if this look yes, ro bottom.

Speaker 2 (14:04):
It could be.

Speaker 1 (14:05):
There's always those games that are the by low Sell High, right,
and we've got a couple of them on the slate today.
The Chargers coming off that win the way they did
and the Chiefs coming off the walls for the Chargers
could easily be could easily be a by low Sell High.

Speaker 2 (14:21):
So all right, maybe you're turning my head.

Speaker 3 (14:25):
I'll get because there's a lot of cold weather games
where it's like that's that's going to be an absolute
You have a one handed QB in ten degree weather,
that is.

Speaker 2 (14:34):
Who could who could barely play in like basically indoors.

Speaker 3 (14:39):
Yeah, you know, and to control their's crazy.

Speaker 1 (14:43):
The New York Jets visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars. There are
eleven and a half point favorite Simon the Jaguars are
in case there's any confusion about who would be the
favorites in this game, the a FC South leading Jacksonville Jaguars. Interestingly,

(15:05):
the line has moved from twelve and a half to
eleven and a half. As you can imagine in a
game between the trash team that just broke our hearts
and the division leading team that also just helped us win,
I spent yesterday digging into the leads, desperately looking for
ways to find to bet the trash team. I'm surprised

(15:29):
the number has moved in their direction already, because I
really couldn't get behind anything until I had a better
understanding of who the quarterback was going to be. Tyrod
Taylor left the game against the Dolphins with a groin injury.

Speaker 2 (15:40):
Justin Fields was already out of.

Speaker 1 (15:42):
The game and not on the roster that day or
not on uniform that day because of an injured knee.
That meant Brady Cook, undrafted free agent from Missouri who
came in, fumbled his first snap, threw a pick in
the red zone at the at the end of the
first half. He's the only guy we know for sure
can play quarterback. I'm not inclined to bet against the

(16:04):
Jags if I don't know who the Jets quarterback is
going to be.

Speaker 3 (16:09):
Yeah, right, That's that's the tough part here. It's I
wanted to be on the Jets like you, but if
you have to make a pick day in your pick pulls,
and you know you can't get to our Thursday show,
and I'm stuck here and I got to make a
pick here this week as well. Today, I'm gonna end
up taking the Jaguars just in case it is the
backup to you know, Taylor. But if it's fields, this

(16:29):
is actually I know we all we're all out on fields,
but this is technically a good, good number right to
be bell on fields against this Jaguars team. That's just
a ton of points to cover for a Jaguars team
that we've talked about. They have lived up to it.
They've been a really good team this year, but they
usually play well against good teams and the kind of
falter against bad teams. Right, that's what we've been their
most so tricky line. I'm like I said, if I

(16:51):
have to take it right now, take the Jaguars, but
I could see, I could see talking myself into this
Jets team come someday, but just for a few pennies.
I just have no faith in that side.

Speaker 1 (17:00):
Difference for the Jacks has been Jacobe Myers. Like he
he I know it sounds crazy to say that, but
he's just completely changed that offense. He's exactly the kind
of receiver that Liam Code needs to make everything else work.
He makes Trevor Lawrence comfortable throwing in the middle of
the field. He puts Brian Thomas Junior on the outside
so he can just go deep and not have to

(17:22):
be the guy with alligator arms running through the middle
of the field. It's just been a sort of magic
little wand that has changed the game for the Jaguars
and made them a more interesting team.

Speaker 2 (17:36):
I love that this week.

Speaker 1 (17:38):
I know you've done a lot of work over the
last twenty four to thirty six hours. Everyone keeps talking
about how this might have been Trevor Lawrence's best game
with Liam Cohane, and I keep looking at it, and
he was great. He had some great throws and did
everything he was supposed to do.

Speaker 3 (17:50):
I think just because of weather. I give him that
that could be true because the elements too.

Speaker 2 (17:53):
I was going to say he's still only completed about
fifty five percent of.

Speaker 3 (17:56):
His price, right, Yeah. So, and you know we've we've
talked a lot about this Jags team and uh, you
know they as much probably you want to give them meers.
It's why once again we hated the Travis Hunter pick.
Like you can you can find guys like him, You
can't find, you know, a guy like Mason Grahant who's
just been an absolute animal for Cleveland. Like there's just that's

(18:19):
why you take those exact guys. I know, a Duke
cart ab Duke Carter has not lived up to the
hype right for the Giants. He's been really disappointed this
year and we've heard all heard about what happened with
him off field and all that nonsense about him getting bench.
But Travis Hunter at that pick, it just will never
make sense. And this GM, as much as probably people
a gonna give him for this season, it's not like

(18:39):
he put this team together really right. Did he go
get the coach or did the owner go throw a
bag of the guys? So I Liam Cohen just we
always talk about how big of a difference coaches make.
You're living it for theirs right now. He was. There
was a reason that the Bucks offered him insane amount
of money to stay at the road, see, and they
were so bitter when he left. So it's it's crazy
what this man is done. Turn around this Jaguars team

(19:02):
and yeah, like we said, old Jags, they always lose
this game. Maybe this is the new air. So I'm
gonna put my money behind them, just in case it's
a rookie on the road here for this jetsam that quarterback.

Speaker 1 (19:15):
To Buffalo at New England. New England is a one
point underdog on the road or at home right now,
winners of ten straight. Look, all the conversations are that
this is a fraudulent winning streak. They've only been three

(19:37):
winning teams in this ten game streak. Not their problem.
You gotta be who's in front of you, right Like
they can't help it. What the schedule is good for
them That they went out and hired Mike Frabel. We
just talked about how important the coaches are. They went
out and got the best coach available, especially the best
coach available for their roster with a quarterback who is
developing into his second year. He is one of the

(19:59):
reasons why May have turned into the MVP candidate, along
with Matthew Stafford. So what's interesting in this game is
that the money or the tickets at least, are moving
this from one and a half to one. I kind
of want to be on the Bills, but I want
to see where the money is going, and I want
to see where this ends up before I rush into it.
Because if I can get the Bills as an underdog

(20:20):
or get this game at pick, what am I rushing for?

Speaker 3 (20:25):
Josh Allen, you ever get nervous before games? Sometimes? What
do you do if you get nervous? Put some soft
music on? Then I throw up Yeah, fun game that
could flip and people can spot now these teams miles
away and everyone can agree on it like we did
with the Patriots, right. I feel like everyone talked about
it for four or five months. How they had an
easy schedule. You expect Drike may they take the next step,

(20:46):
but no one first saw this a legit number one seed.
And that's what's so interesting here, Chez. I've talked to
some pros and they are on this Patriots side. They
really like this Patriot side and for early money here.
I know some guys have taken positions on the one
and a half. Most I've talked to they've taken the
seven and a half. Right, They've just put into teasers
like this is This to me, is why the stummer

(21:07):
could come down to a pick, which we have not
had this season, right, I feel like we've not had
a game pick. It's always the plus one plus one
and a half, yeah, or half even I want to
be on the Bills. I'm trying to be patient to
see if it does flip. But I can just take
a position on them as a dog here because I
think the public might come in and join them the
professionals on the Patriots. I just, you know, as much
as crap you want to give this Patriots team, how

(21:29):
easy of schedule they've had, this Bills team has not
done anything to make you super confident about them other
than the fact that they have Josh Allen. Like that's
just that's where it starts and ends for me in
this game, where I really when I broke broke it
down and looked more into it, it's like, this is
actually a pretty good matchup for this Patriots team. Like
I could see how these professionals are taking a position
because it's like they're they're able to put the blinders

(21:51):
on here Josh Allen, I can't do that. The fact
that Josh already lost to them this year. You're you're
in a spot now where I've been talking about this
cold it is coming people. There is going to be
a deep freeze, and this is another game up in
New England. It's going to be cold, cold, cold, So
that means it's going to be a ton of Josh
Allen running the ball and a ton of Cook which

(22:12):
on the flip side, they have their own, you know,
little version of Josh Allen with May who can run
the ball. I still think they're gonna play that way offensively.
I think they're still going to try to be pushing
the ball downfield. So really really interesting see what McDaniels
does with May here and then justin Tiel making this
game because it could be cold, could be really windy
and freezing in a little bit snow, and I just
once again lines up for josh An who's played in

(22:34):
these exact spots a lot and he tends to thrive
in it. So I love love this this game. This
is one of my fair games, just because it's it's
so split between professionals, and I'm interested what the public
does with it because right now, like you said, the tickets,
the money, it's so even, we've not really seen the
public tickets stand here, and I'm hoping they come on
the Patriots side, so maybe we get the Buffalo Bills

(22:54):
as a dog here.

Speaker 1 (22:56):
Yeah, the Patriots have had some offensive issues as of
late that that could be an issue, especially when you're
trying to run the ball with a new offensive line.
They've only had one game together really before the bye,
so there are some challenges. They are imperfect, so are

(23:17):
the Bills.

Speaker 3 (23:18):
We know that what the.

Speaker 1 (23:19):
Bills have done the past couple of years is just
completely transform their offense into a running offense, and like
it's stuff that the Chiefs haven't done.

Speaker 2 (23:29):
And so the Bills are built to survive.

Speaker 1 (23:33):
In cold weather where it's going to come down to
Josh Allen and what he can do with his legs
and how they can run the ball. Everyone should remember
to get their faucets, you know, just a little trickle
so your pipes don't freeze. It's really important because I've
had my pipes freeze and it's been ugly.

Speaker 3 (23:50):
You're in the Northeast, and I just, once again, I
can't get over this. If you're a Patriots thing where
the Pros, but even your team, which I am truly
shocked by. I really thought this was going to be
a two and a half three number on this Bills team,
and they've totally come in and back to their team
early here. So you know, if this was my team,
I'd be very excited because you know, you're eleven and

(24:12):
two here and you win this, it's over right. They've
they've locked up the division, yes, this team, So it's
really interesting. As you said, you're on Tuesday effect that
the early money he's been the Patriots. But I'm dugging.
I believe Josh Allen Bill's he ain't dead yet. I
think he's gonna give him one last fight here.

Speaker 1 (24:28):
For the record, as of right now, it's supposed to
be low thirties, but it could be fifteen. But right now,
six days out, whatever it is, the temperature at game
time is supposed to be very low thirties.

Speaker 3 (24:44):
Yeah, yeah, I got a weather guy. He said. He
claims he's pretty good. He claims there's gonna be a big, big,
freeze coming, so it's gonna be really cold on the
East Coast for a lot of these games.

Speaker 1 (24:53):
Well, Sunday is not my dog walking day because I'm
so busy working, so I'm gonna get out.

Speaker 2 (24:57):
Of that one. Arizona at Houston.

Speaker 1 (25:00):
Houston is a nine and a half point favorite, So,
I mean, the only time the Cardinals have been blown
out this year has been when they played teams in
the NFC West. Literally every other game has been four
points or less, and arguably the game against the Rams
last week was a low point. It was at home

(25:21):
for the Cardinals, unlike their game against the Niners. Unlike
their game against the Seahawks. They could not blame turnovers
and flukes in the first fifteen minutes of the game
that put them behind the.

Speaker 2 (25:33):
Eight ball for their loss.

Speaker 1 (25:35):
They just got dominated and decimated at every turn. They
were just terrible, to the point where the Rams had
their backups in, you know, with a quarter left. This
thing started moving on Sunday night from seven and a
half to nine and a half. With the majority of
the back the books the tickets on Houston right now
makes sense. They could get some players back. Marvin Harrison

(25:59):
Junior could come back Trey Benson, their running back who's
been out since Week four, could come back. They could
get some help back on the offensive line the Cardinals.
I mean, am I crazy to say this is a
by low sell high on the Cardinals?

Speaker 3 (26:15):
No, but again it's these are the This is exact
game we get in troubled with because obviously when I
first thought, I loved it as well too. It's like
Arizona this exact type of games they back door and
stay in it, where the Houston they're not a Juggernau
of an offense like they're not. No, they're not comparable
to these other offenses that have rolled and blown out
this Arizona team. So I'm with you. It's my My

(26:38):
biggest issue is like, can we can we see the
scenario where we get burned here? Because it's obviously a
really bad Arizona team that is horrible defensively and they
could be burned here by Marx and CJ and all
the things that we think you Uston could do offensively.
Of course, but I think it's a nice spot they got.
We have a Houston team that just slaid the demon

(26:58):
the Chiefs. Like this is if you read anything lead
up to that game. Houston basically circled this one all
year because of that play, the loss, and they were
just so fired up about that game. And like we said,
it doesn't really feel like they won that game. It
feels like they got it. They did, but it feel
like a little bit of getted to them. They stole
that game in many ways. And this is being priced

(27:20):
into it. Like you said, this numbers move two points.
They the books are bracing for a ton of teasers,
all of it coming on this Texans team. So right now,
one book, one of the more public books, has already
hit ten. So that's why, like people, I think you
might be able to be patient here, Yeah, you might
be able to get to the tents here on Cardinals.
And at that number, I got no issue, no issue

(27:42):
taking this Cardinals team. So I'm already dreading it. This.
I already can see our future comes Sunday ten and
a half. In contest, can't avoid that because we've just
seen it. Jacoby Brissett his offense, you know, even against
good defense, he tends to move the ball and when
you know he's playing dead for two or three quarters,
he does eventually come the live for two or three drives,
it moves the ball, so it's it's a tough, tough

(28:05):
bet chat where it's like I can't avoid it. I
knew I was gonna like it as soon as I
saw it. And the fact that it's moved so much
once it hits that ten number, like it is right now,
as soon as we got off this call, I'm gonna
go Hame with that number.

Speaker 1 (28:15):
Yeah, we kind of have to. Like I said, there's
a couple of bi lows sell high spots that and
we've won with these this season. Like it's not like
even though favorites keep winning at big numbers, it's not
like we haven't found the thread of the needle on these.
We just did it with New Orleans against the Bucks.
Obviously not the same situation, but the big numbers do cover.

(28:37):
The Panthers just covered against the Rams at ten and
a half. We just saw the Raiders covered it and
a half against the Broncos. Fluky things happen. Big numbers
are just hard to cover. It's just you know, like
at the end of the game. We've seen it so
many times with the Titans, betting against the Titans, Like
when you have a decent quarterback and you've got some

(28:59):
momentum on off at the end of the game, and
the team is just playing a shell defense. They don't
have to worry about losing the game. That's where bad
things happen for favorites.

Speaker 3 (29:09):
Let's go.

Speaker 2 (29:09):
We're aligned, We're aligned, all right, let's take a quick break.

Speaker 1 (29:13):
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If you were someone you know has a gambling problem
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it gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia. What are we doing
about the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Cincinnati Bengals as two
point favorites. The line is already moving in the Bengals direction.

(31:16):
It was two and a half. What will Joe Burrow
do against the secondary for the second time this seven season?
Don't forget they played what two and a half weeks
ago and Burrow was awesome, outscoring the Ravens twenty to
seven in the second half. The Bengals should have won

(31:36):
against the Bills last week. The Ravens are reeling. If
they have any pride, this is a get right spot
for this defense is tragic, and you've talked about where
it seems like players are starting to fade, like Mark

(31:57):
Andrews has been non existent as a weapon for the
Ravens and they're really struggling on the outside. And Lamar
Jackson could play more games than any quarterback. Ever, it
seems like the past six years at least, it is
banged up NonStop. How do you bet on the Ravens here?

Speaker 3 (32:15):
It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you. Yeah,
I don't know what to do with it. My model
likes it for the Bengals that basically has this game
at a pick, so it's like they're pretty much power
of the exact same team. Now that Joe Bros Back,
that's how I should say how bad the Ravens are
and how much better the Bengals are than I guess
we perceive. But I wanted to be on the Ravens.

(32:35):
I feel like this is good back time to bet
the Ravens so we can talk I guess about it
again on Thursday because we're city right now. I just
I just I don't know what to do with this one.
Like I know, probably supposed to be on the Bengals.
The model is right like two and a half. That's
a good number for the Bengals. Hard Rocks already moved
it too, so clearly the professionals are going to back

(32:56):
this Bengals side. But I just I can't quit this
Ravens team. But I told you there's just there's a
lot of off field drama stuff that's leaking on the
public right now. This Ravens team, it's just all bad
in the locker room. It's just there's so many teams
right now that I just can't imagine how horrible the
locker room pipes are and this is one of them
with this Ravens team. So I know, I know Chat
we want both want to be on the Ravens. There

(33:17):
probably should be a tell of us we should probably
should probably be on the Bengals, and it's probably a
value number.

Speaker 2 (33:21):
I know, I don't know why.

Speaker 1 (33:23):
It's almost like, look, I had the same feelings last
week with the Bengals and the Bills. I wanted to
be on the Bengals. I loved the Bengals in that spot,
but it felt like such a public dog. And this
also was going to feel like such a public dog.
And that's honestly the only thing that's keep me from
doing it. It just feels too popular to beut the Bengals,

(33:44):
and I don't want to be popular.

Speaker 2 (33:47):
At all.

Speaker 3 (33:47):
Okay, sometimes again, we won on big, big, the biggest
chalk better the week. Last week was the Rams, and
we nailed it.

Speaker 2 (33:52):
So nailed it. It does hit Cleveland and Chicago.

Speaker 1 (33:57):
Chicago was a seven and a half point favorite at
home against the Cleveland Browns. This Bears defense, if it
cannot get a turnover, it cannot get a stop. Gino Smith,
JJ McCarthy, Spencer Rattler, Jordan love it doesn't matter who
the quarterback is, how good they are or how bad

(34:17):
they are, they all find ways to move the ball
against the Chicago Bears. And in all of those games,
all of those games, turnovers were the difference. The only
difference is that the Packers didn't have any at the
end of the game and they won. The other teams
which were bad all did and that's how the Bears
were able to eke out victories. So if they cannot

(34:41):
stop anybody, and Shedor Sanders is playing with more and
more confidence, do we ever go against type and bet
on this Browns defense as a big underdog when everybody
still wants to be.

Speaker 2 (34:55):
Backing the Bears.

Speaker 1 (34:56):
Because I will tell you it does feel to me
like the Bears stock has actually risen after their loss
in terms of public perception to the Packers because they
played so well against a good team and if not
for bad timing, play calling, however you want to measure it,
they might actually win that game.

Speaker 3 (35:17):
Yeah, you're probably right. This probably is the right time
to jump off this Bear's train. Right, You're now at
seven and a half, Like that's a crazy high number
with a hook and like you talked about this Bears
defensive suspect. But keep bringing up Chad the cold weather.
I mean Chicago. If East coach is going to be
in the twenties or thirties, what Chicago being the fives, tens, fifteens,

(35:38):
It's going to be freezing at this game. So I
kin kind of might end up backing the Bears just
because I see an avenue with them offensively, how they
can move, and they've played now this would be their
second week in a row playing in that kind of
type of gold where Cleveland that wasn't the cold I
mean should or played really well in it, but you

(35:59):
kind of saw it and that was not a little fluky,
but it felt a little fluky. With this Bears team,
it kind of feels exactly like we know what they are.
So it's a great matchup if you want to be
with the professionals. I think they're gonna come on the
Browns at seven and a half. It just feels like
a way too big one, yeah for this Bears team,
But I could be perspaded into this side. I just

(36:19):
I hate it, like it just it was six and
a half, went to seven. Now it's seven and a half,
and it's six and a half I could have been
talked to the Bears with seven seven and a half.
I'm I'm probably gonna have to be on the Cleveland
Eve though I really don't want to.

Speaker 1 (36:31):
It's going to be because you know, in my weather
app I have Chicago on there, even though I don't
live there anymore. I always like to know what's going
on there, even though I haven't lived there in thirty
five years.

Speaker 2 (36:43):
It's going to be.

Speaker 3 (36:44):
Zero, right, That's what I mean. There's a big freeze coming,
so like this is one of the games gonna be
affected by it, and I don't know. It's like it's
it's tough. It's tough to trust their team. I feel
like the Bears are probably the more trustworthy team in
that episceonn Aarrea.

Speaker 1 (36:58):
Do you have you ever seen the movie Planes, Trains
and Automobiles, Steve Martin.

Speaker 3 (37:03):
John Candy, don't call me surely.

Speaker 2 (37:06):
So one of my favorite.

Speaker 1 (37:08):
Lines in any movie ever is they're trying to get
back to Chicago. You know, they've gotten screwed every which way.
They're riding in the back of a pickup truck through
the plains of Kansas. The country Goersmiths, the figure of
the temperature is one one. I love that line. It's

(37:33):
like he could say negative eighty five. Just one is
such a great deadpan line. Just made me think of
it when I said it was zero gonna.

Speaker 3 (37:44):
I got Chicago people are a different breed.

Speaker 2 (37:46):
Ad so true.

Speaker 1 (37:48):
John Candy was Canadian, but really he was a Chicago
and at heart. All right, let's talk about it. Las
Vegas Raiders at the Philadelphia Eagles. Eagles are eleven and
a half point favorites Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, famous for the Liberty Bell,
Blue Laws, soft pretzels, and losing football teams. The Raiders

(38:13):
ending was truly bizarre and it has lit up the internet.

Speaker 2 (38:17):
So I did some research just to for everyone who
hasn't paid attention.

Speaker 1 (38:23):
The Raiders were anywhere from seven and a half to
eight and a half point underdogs against the Broncos. They
kicked a meaningless field goal with five seconds left when
they were down ten. Game ends Broncos win by seven.
Everybody who was on the Raiders loses their bets. They're
all calling on everyone who bet on the Broncos loses

(38:43):
their bets. They're all calling for the NFL to investigate
this game. They're saying it was rigged.

Speaker 2 (38:52):
All of this stuff. This has happened before. It happened
two years ago.

Speaker 1 (38:56):
Sean McVay, as a seven and a half point underdog
against the Nine in twenty twenty three, did the exact
same thing strategically. You know, I get it, like, who
knows you kick the field goal, you're down ten, you
even get a second left, you get an onside kick,
someone fumbles it, you can run it back. Crazy, crazy
things have happened in the NFL. People say they want

(39:17):
to investigate the refs. I totally get it. Here's the
problem that's going on right now. This is not an
integrity problem. These games aren't fixed. If the NFL won
to fix games, they wouldn't focus on the Broncos and
the Raiders. They would make sure that Why because they

(39:39):
focus on the Chiefs on Sunday Night when they need
the Chiefs to win. Because the Chiefs and the Cowboys
are the two most popular teams who drive the most ratings.
It's not the Rams, it's not the Seahawks, it's not
the Broncos. Those are the teams they want to see
make the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (39:55):
You're not good at s gaming, Chad that you don't
that's the house gaming works. It's where people aren't looking.
That's where they scam. But you miss the most egregious
part of this whole thing, the reason people are so
pissed off, as Broncos could have kicked the field goal.
They went for it on fourth down. Okay, they didn't
get it. Maybe they were going from four down because
they're trying to run out the clocket. Trump Payon does
weird shit all the time. This this whole Raiders part

(40:17):
was so weird because they got that they had no
timeouts left. They through to the middle of the field,
the guy gets tackled, the defender was slow getting off
of him or whatever, and they called the delay a
game yes, which people got upset about because they that's
why I've been called say three four times in the
last five years, which is very rare, cold type of penalty.
And like we just said, they sent out the kicker

(40:38):
when there's five second less to kick it. Because his
whole math was, well, if we kicked that field goal
and we make it, I put the position that we
onside kick it, we could recover the Auntie said and
return it for a touchdown. That's what Pete Carroll exactly
said to defend himself. It's like, Okay, I guess that
covers all the bases here, but I think that's why
people were just so upset. And it's like, you needed
three really stupid things to happen at the end of
that game to lose that bet which you were winning

(41:01):
for the entire game. So that's why people were upset.
And uh yeah, I told you. I that's why I
took Demra on the money line. It's like I thought
something stupid like that might happen with the back door there,
but to lose that way, I get why people are
so pissed. That's like egregious to all the stupid things
have to happen. But we say all the time, that's gambling.
It's it's stupid things.

Speaker 1 (41:20):
Yes, all the time, it's gambling, and like only gamble
where you can lose and then don't fucking whine about
it because this is this happens. Here's my solve, and
we've talked about this earlier this year. The speed at
which they can do expedited reviews now on so many things.
How are they just not having somebody in New York

(41:43):
doing an expedited review on every single call, and if
it is egregious and it's impactful in some way, why
aren't they saying to the refs, yeah, pick up the flag.
This was not the penalty you think it was. We
saw it in the Chiefs game. We sawt in the
Chiefs game. There was a penalty that was a phantom
pass interference penalty. There was a phantom holding penalty where

(42:04):
a guy just fell and they thought it was a hole.
Like we see these things happen all the time. It's
so much easier with technology to fix it in the moment,
and they're only qualifying it against what they feel our
sort of game changing plays. But a holding call can
be a game changing play. We just saw it last night.
A delay a game can be a game changing play.

(42:26):
They should be making these expeded reviews on such a
wider menu of calls in the NFL. It would increase
the quality of the game. It would eliminate so much
of the conversation about how bad the refs are. And
with integrity being front of mind for so many people,
it is more front of mine than it even was
two years ago when McVeigh did this, Like their.

Speaker 3 (42:46):
Needs every week we have this conversation every week.

Speaker 2 (42:49):
Chose so fix it every week.

Speaker 3 (42:50):
I know what I'm saying. They're not going to, but
that's this issue. It's like they should make it. Coaches
can challenge one or two calls per game, and it's
not done through the referee creu on the field. It's
done through York like you said, So it's not biased
to the people you're on the field with, and it's
just they need to do something because it's every week
I'm getting yeah too by people say the NFL's fixed,
and we both have the same view. It's very stupid,

(43:11):
but I like to get on because it is funny
where it's like people really do believe it is fixed,
and it's like, guys, come on, they don't need to
fix these games. Like it's just it's gonna be a
billion dollar business regardless off whoever wins or loses that
Denver Raiders game. Like we both joke, no one cares.

Speaker 1 (43:26):
But but it's like what you said about the red
zone the other night, it would be a more enjoyable product.
We're all paying for it, we're all gonna watch it.
It has no fear of fading. It's not gonna get worse.
For the NFL, But why not make it as good
as you can be? And you know this is an
issue for everybody who's watching it home. It slows the
games down, It ruins momentum, it changes the course of

(43:49):
these games. Why not just go to the competition committee,
expand the menu, Expand the menu of calls. They can
be expedited reviews. And if it's a phantom holding call,
if it's a bad pass interference call, if it's a
bad delay a game call, that just changed it on
the spot. Why change the outcome of games off of
what are small penalties? And that's that is happening. It's

(44:09):
not just the big turnovers and scores that are the
most impactful plays. Anyways, the Eagles are eleven and a
half point favorites at home against the Raiders.

Speaker 2 (44:19):
What do you want to fucking do?

Speaker 3 (44:22):
I mean, Lane Johnson's back, I'll bell over the Eagles,
but without him, I'll probably end up on Vegas. I'm
just or pass on this game, so we'll see. I
think Lane Johnson will be back. But this is a
great spot once again, freezing cold Gino Smith outdoors. He's
already been horrible this year's indoors let alone outdoors against Eagles.
As much crap you want to give him, they do
have a really good defensive line. They can get after quarterbacks.

(44:43):
So we've seen that Phillips kid that got from Miami.
He's been great for them and he think this is
a good match for him. So it's a huge number.
Public will be all over in Vegas. I mean everyone,
just like the Chiefs. There's no one out there betting
this Eagles team. So I'll be paid. It has moved down, yeah,
just be patient. It kick get under ten.

Speaker 1 (45:02):
Philly has moved from eleven and from twelve and a
half to eleven and a half. Yeah, if you're gonna
talk about buying it the low. I mean everyone watched
that game, so I don't.

Speaker 3 (45:12):
Even think that's wrong about them. Like I said, I
think they could lose this game. They are just it
is so bad that plane ride. I can't even imember
how horrible that plane ride was. And it's a short week,
like it's just everything is just so negative for this
Eagles team. But they should smoke this Vegas team, just defensively.
I just don't see how Gino can move the ball,

(45:34):
So really really couldn't have asked if you're an Eagles
fan or that team to have a better team to
play against.

Speaker 1 (45:40):
Here at home Washington Commanders at the New York Giants.
The Giants are two point favorites. I don't think any
team has been more unlucky than the Giants this year.
You mentioned doctor Nick Giffin from Action, our buddy Nick
who does the luck rankings, and last week his luck rankings.
The two games that were sort of great at a

(46:00):
were the Commanders as underdogs against the Broncos and the
Giants as underdog the Patriot underdogs get the Patriots. It
worked out with the Commanders, didn't work out with the
Giants because their luck continued under the first half until
they made it a game.

Speaker 2 (46:14):
Washington.

Speaker 1 (46:16):
Jaden Daniels is expected to play, so that's crazy, it's crazy,
but he is. They held him out for precaution because
he was questionable to return. You know, talk about by
low Sell high similar to the Cardinals here, like it's
not going to get lower for the Commanders losing thirty

(46:39):
one to nothing to a quarterback that basically everybody was
putting on the scrap heap and saying, was this generation
JaMarcus Russell and JJ McCarthy. So Commanders plus two, I
feel like I feel like that's the play.

Speaker 3 (46:57):
Yeah, again, we're saying it Tuesday. I'll probably bet the Commanders,
but that's I don't even want to be involved in
this game. For being totally honest, I'll make this pick
for a pick pulls, but putting the actual money on
either side of this. There's so many good games this week.
I'll totally happily not have this on any TV.

Speaker 1 (47:11):
Good I'm glad we don't talk about it. I definitely
don't want to put it in the Molti view. Detroit
is visiting Los Angeles Rams. Rams are five and a
half point favorites. Look, the Lions dominated the Cowboys. That's
the good news. Right in that game, they lost Brian Branch.

Speaker 3 (47:25):
For the year.

Speaker 2 (47:26):
They were already without Terry.

Speaker 1 (47:27):
And Arnold who hasn't even been the corner they need
him to be, but he was the best they had
and now he's out. Thomas Harper, another guy in the
defensive backfield who's been starting, may miss the game because
of a concussion. They may get Kirby Joseph back.

Speaker 2 (47:43):
He's been he's questionable. He's been out for a while
with an injury.

Speaker 1 (47:48):
They beat the Cowboys with a lot of his own
against the Cowboys, Cowboys have not played a lot of
his own. I mean, they played a lot of his own
against the Cowboys. They haven't played a lot of own
this year. It doesn't matter against Stafford. He's great against Soewn,
he's great against Man. They've got a dominant rushing game.

(48:09):
The success rate for this team's rushing game is as
good as any team in the last six years. When
it was twenty eighteen and it was the Los Angeles
Rams who went to the Super Bowl.

Speaker 2 (48:21):
They're playing awesome right now.

Speaker 3 (48:25):
Yeah, and just doesn't feel like the type of spot
they have a letdown or play bad. Right This is
a huge deal. This is Matthew Stafford's former team on Salman,
the opposite for Jared Goff. This is his former team
as well. So this is I mean, doesn't get much
better than this is probably the best game of the week.
Just two teams both desperately need this game for playoff seeding.

(48:46):
And you know I talked a little bit about Sunday night.
I love the Rams like I love them at four
and a half, they're five actually still at hard Rock
here in Jersey. Every other book is five and a half.
I'm seeing a couple of six pops. So I want
to make this, Simon says, but don't want to mush
it because I'm gonna bet this heavily, and Simon says
has just been toxic. So I am really really happy

(49:09):
that this number stillers six. I really love this Rams
team for just a bunch of different match with Bigs.
When you just talked about the injuries to the secondary
of this team, the lines, they're gonna try to run
the zone because they're gonna have so many backups in there.
He's just gonna eat you a live staff especially the
way Puka is playing right now, and you know we've
talked about the amount they Adams. He is. My feeling
about Devant Adams. He's an old man level where I

(49:31):
feel like Stafford tells him, Hey, this time, run really
hard route like I'm actually gonna go to And they
picked their spots where, especially in the red zone, it
just like feels like if you see certain plays, you
can see where Puca's going really hard off the line,
as if Puka knows it's coming his way on the
flip side. Devout the Adams just basically rubs. The guy
at the line doesn't even move because he's like, I'm
not wasting energy here, and it's just totally in sanc

(49:52):
I just love watching this Rams team so much. Everything
is just clicking. So, yeah, it's it's a big number.
I assume the public will come in on this Lions team,
especially if it touches six. So, like you said, they
had that huge win, right and now they're on ten
days rest, So I get it. Stafford especially, I'm sure
the Trens will back it up. Stafford is a dog indoors,

(50:14):
you know, and I should say golf as a dog
indoors tends to be a really good spot to take them.
But talked about those numbers, it feels like it's the
Detroit of the past, and this is a bank the
Detroit offensive line that's struggle against good defensive lines, which
the Rams have and we've seen it. Their secondary is
just two me injuries. So I know pansby Lions fans,
but this just feels like a really bad spot to

(50:34):
go against this juggering out of a Rams team.

Speaker 2 (50:36):
I feel like you're expressing.

Speaker 1 (50:39):
I've heard this many times during our years together, a
quiet confidence on the Rams.

Speaker 3 (50:49):
Yeah, I like it a lot. Again, I don't want
to mush it what Simon says, but this is I
feel like this is a very nice number in a
nice spot. So, like I said, hard Rock, it's still
five year in Jersey. Shop around people. You might be
able to get a five. We can hear this, but
I just see this again into six by the timeless
people hear this.

Speaker 1 (51:04):
Unfortunately, I am gonna unload on the Rams. I don't
know about that betting it all. Yeah, on the Los
Angeles Rams Carolina at New Orleans. Look, I know we
wanted this one to get the three. We want to
bet the Saints at plus three, and we hate betting
against the Panthers when they're in the hunt for the division.

(51:26):
Are beloved, beloved Panthers. I'd really like to bet New
Orleans here. I just wanted to be at a number
that makes me a little bit happier.

Speaker 3 (51:38):
Yeah, I'm fortunately, I'm impatient. I can't wait. Simon says,
give me the Saints plus two and a half. I
want to play a game. Simon says, like Chad said,
there are some threes popping up every on them, but
they keep getting hit back down at two and a half.
So I want to get the Saints now two and
a half just in case the pros do come in
hit this down. But this is going to be the
biggest split game. The public will be all over the

(52:00):
Carolina team, especially effectively. Last time they saw them, they
upset the Rams and they had a bye week. So yeah,
you know, as much as you know, I want to say, well,
I thought the public would love this Saints team, was
that he was went against the Bucks. Feels like everyone's
kind of the same boat, right, It's like that's more
about something being wrong with the Bucks than the same
winer where it's like once again they're overlooking the Saints team.

(52:20):
They play really tough and just looking at these teams
previous matchups going back these last couple of years, while
the Saints have been bad, they've kind of owned this
Panthers team. It's been shocking. So this year they beat
him seventeen to seven, which we remember because we bet
on it, and you know this exact next next scenario
or the next time. The last time they played, the

(52:40):
Panthers did beat him twenty three to twenty two last year,
and then before that they've lost four straight. They lost
to the Saints forty seven to ten, twenty eight to six,
and then twenty to seventeen. So it's like the Saints
have kind of owned this matchup in this Panthers team
usually in this matchup. So I don't know if the
publics were looking to that historical facts where we talk
even last week, it happened right all those divisional matchups.

(53:03):
The trends war went out like these teams and when
you get in these divisional games, for some reason, they
just match up all against certain matchups. And we've seen
the Saints team they do match up well against his
Panthers team. They give them problems up front where you know,
as old as Cam Jordan is, he gives pressure up
the middle, which we've seen with Bryce Young, get him
off his spot. That's just not great for him. So

(53:24):
I love this number. I wish I could say my
model had this a great mmer like I did last
week with that Jacks team, where I was like, oh,
it's four points off. Sadly the model literally has said two,
So it's it's not that big of a margin. I
just it's really about me loving the spot for the
Staints team, the effect they play so well against the
Panthers team that tends the letdown after big wins. We've
seen him multiple times this year. They've had letdown spots

(53:46):
after big wins. So we'll see how they perform. It's
a rare opportunity Bryce Young as a favorite in his career,
I believe as one win.

Speaker 1 (53:55):
I had to spend all day yesterday researching Bryce Young
as a road favorite.

Speaker 3 (54:01):
Has it happened before? No, It's never happened before. No,
I was gonna. I was trying to think of it. It
was like, has it happened before?

Speaker 2 (54:07):
When could have happened?

Speaker 3 (54:09):
Right?

Speaker 2 (54:09):
It's an impossible It doesn't it doesn't exist.

Speaker 3 (54:14):
Not only is he a road favorite for the first
time his career, he's getting eighty seven percent of the
bets and eighty percent of the money right now.

Speaker 2 (54:20):
I mean, it's that I just want to like.

Speaker 1 (54:23):
Simon says, it incredible, Thank you, Chad. Simon says, presented
by a hard rock bet. It's going to be the
New Orleans Saints plus two and a half. It's going
to be hard to avoid this one in the contest.
Not that we want to, you know, telegraph it, but
we're both going to be on the Saints here, the
number is probably going to be two and a.

Speaker 2 (54:42):
Half in the contest, so that's what we're gonna be betting.

Speaker 3 (54:44):
Even one and a half, I'd still take it, even
though again that's under my model's number. I still think
this this this number should be a pick, right. It's
like the Saints just are not as bad as people
perceive and as much praise we're given to Carolina, They're
an up and down team. That's just who they are
this year.

Speaker 1 (55:00):
Yeah, I'm with you. Will you be with me on
this next game? Green Bay at Denver? Denver is a
two point home underdog. It's been bouncing one and a
half and two and a half. Every time it gets
to two and a half, somebody buys the Broncos, and
every time it gets to one and a half, somebody's
buying the Packers.

Speaker 2 (55:19):
And that's what we're seeing in the splits.

Speaker 1 (55:22):
I'm going to make this one Chad's choice, and I
am taking the Green Bay Packers.

Speaker 3 (55:33):
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you
willing to make a choice? What choice? We can't run
from away? Are sharp dues? Can just see it? You
know what I mean?

Speaker 1 (55:46):
You look the numbers we talked about this on Sunday.
It's really hard to find the weakness in this team,
even though it doesn't feel like they've been the dominant
talked about team right everyone in the NFC. They've been
talking about the Rams, they've been talking about the Seahawks
and the Packers. Like all of a sudden, they're nine

(56:07):
to three to one. They're atop the NFC North. Their
defense is so fast and playing lights out. Jordan Love
is incredible under pressure, which is what the Broncos are
going to bring. Even if they're only bringing four or
five guys. They're not going to be a blitz heavy team.
That's not their scheme. Their receivers on the Broncos on

(56:28):
the Packers side are getting healthier. There's just opportunities here
for the Packers to steal this game. I don't think
any of us trust bo Nicks, and while we like
bo Nicks as an underdog, I think I just like
this Packers team, and I think they're starting to roll
and finally getting healthy at the exact right time. So
we got to go with the Packers. Chat Choice presented

(56:50):
by hard Rock Bet.

Speaker 3 (56:53):
Yeah, I'm with you. Love the Packers. They love the
match for them and another game I thought would be
affected by the cold, but it seems like that cold
air is just just to the east, so just Chicago
and then heads east of the Mississippi, and this game
will probably be in the fifties fourties for kickoffs. I
know either team really going to be affected that much
by the cold, but you just look at this matchup. Yeah,
the Green Bay Tea. To me, they're the team that

(57:14):
I've been there before and more complete team. You expect
them this moment to kind of live up to that moment,
and the fact that it is under three, it feels
like it's the right number for the Packers, right, Like
we just how many times had this game played as
a Packer's gonna win this game by a Fielgal. It
feels like it's gonna be way more times than this.
Bronco seems to covers the dog here, so I'm interesting
where this line goes. The guy talked a little bit
about Sunday night, I thought maybe it could flip, and

(57:35):
you did see some one and a half start popping
up on this Bronco side. But like Chad talked about,
it's all two's now all off to two and a half,
so a lot of books as well. So if you
do like the Packers like we do, I would definitely
get in now, grab the two before it moves two
and a half because I just see this being two
and a half three by close. For most books, it's
just the Packers to me, professionals will bet them in
the public will they just feel like that's the more

(57:55):
trusted side than even though you know the Broncos eleven
and two they've been great this year, they haven't really
been tested. They have not really been tested. So this
is a great test for them against a team that
it feels like we've talked about this Green by team
Lafleur in December. They seem like they always turn around
like McVay teams do and get better as they go alonger.
So we'll trust the better team, I suppose in Green

(58:17):
Bay and take the number under field.

Speaker 2 (58:19):
Goal, better team, equal defense, equal coaching, better quarterback.

Speaker 1 (58:27):
At the end of the day, we're fading bo Nicks
on this one. Tennessee at San Francisco. Sam Frusco is
a twelve and a half point favorite. The Titans have
covered three of their last four games since interim coach
Mike McCoy took over. They have had bursts of competitiveness.
I'm not gonna say whole games, but definitely bursts. But Simon,

(58:49):
I'm going to refer to Sunday Show in case people
did not hear it or watch it. Matt, please roll
the clip.

Speaker 3 (58:57):
Ched What the hell if you're so lucky this is
holiday season. I'm so mad at you. Your job is
not to let me bet these damn Titan games.

Speaker 2 (59:04):
And everyone we tried, dude, we tried to talk ourselves.

Speaker 3 (59:07):
Out of you stop me from putting this in. You
you have the power. Now you're putting the picks in,
and you let me put it in. It's ridiculous. I
told you I cannot get a read. Whatever I say,
the option will happens.

Speaker 2 (59:22):
Is there anything else to say about this game?

Speaker 3 (59:24):
I think I just looked so much younger with the
no stress of Foreig interceptions. But Yellon hurts at that
moment in my rage. Uh yeah. If people want to
keep fading me, I like the forty nine ers year
like you're fading. We get to fade Tennessee off a
road wind now on the road again against a well
rested forty nine Ers team. The number should be like
fourteen twelve and a half in a lot of books.

(59:45):
I think it's going to keep going up. So I
like the Niners year. I think they absolutely roll this
Tennessee team. But once again, I am not put any
money on it. I am wrong every time with this game.
And if you've been following the trend, Hammer Hammer Tennessee.

Speaker 1 (01:00:01):
Indie at Seattle, Seattle's a thirteen and a half point favorite.
Line's moved up from twelve and a half. This is
the bury the Colts. In Sports media week, everyone from
ESPN to the Wall Street Journal writing about how the
Colts are done, how this was the season they went
all in. They traded the future for Sauce Gardner.

Speaker 2 (01:00:22):
Now he's out.

Speaker 1 (01:00:23):
They thought they had Daniel Jones is their quarterback of
the future. Now he's going to be repairing an achilles.
They don't even know who their quarterback is going to
be when they start next year. This week they've got
to go with Riley Leonard because they had the freak
accident with Anthony Richardson on the sideline before a game.
Listen all the tickets coming in on Seattle.

Speaker 3 (01:00:45):
Here.

Speaker 2 (01:00:45):
I said, this one is moved. Do we take a taste.

Speaker 1 (01:00:50):
I'm not saying it's a contest play one way or
the other, but do we take a taste to the Colts.

Speaker 3 (01:00:56):
No, I'm not to get me the other. I was
the Vikings in this exact scenario. It's not even Riley Leonard.
I think it might be the other backup now, and
I mean I could spend ten minutes going to obtain
them about Philip Rivers and all these people in all
these people in sports media act like they care about

(01:01:16):
players safety and h CT and all this other bullshit.
For all these years, I hated it because it's so
phony and fake. And you saw it this week those
same people. Oh, would it be great if Philip Rivers
came back? A forty four year old grandfather should come
back and play the most violent sport. Like, I cannot
believe people want Philip Rivers comme back. Another part too,

(01:01:36):
people talking about Philip Rivers as he's a hall of famer.
When did that happen? When did Philip Rivers become a
Hall of Famer guy with zero playoff success. It's very
bizarre times we're living in. I just I might have
too much hate in my heart. I just as soon
as I saw people want Philip Rivers back. It's like,
you should all be in jail. This man could die
entering a field of play at forty four years old.

(01:01:58):
I saw some report, Yeah he's still suddenly, it's still slinging.
It looks healthy. I have no doubt he could come
back and play a game like we've seen it with
Flacco as an old man. It can happen. Like these
guys are gun slingers, they're smart, they know to read defenses.
But I think he can play two or three games
and survive. I just I think that is that is
criminal to put a man like that.

Speaker 2 (01:02:19):
It's never the arm that is. It's the body.

Speaker 1 (01:02:24):
It's the legs, it's the knees, it's the head. Guys
who have the arm talent, like Philip Rivers, Dan Marino,
John Elway, you know Tom.

Speaker 2 (01:02:34):
Brady, they could throw it till they're eighty. Yeah, that's
that's not the problem.

Speaker 3 (01:02:39):
It's just so I get it. They worked them out
and they're trying again to come back. But I just
when I saw people in the media, I'm like, man,
this is like criminal. You guys are like it's like
marching a man to his death and celebrating it. It's
I just did not like the fact that he's gonna
come back. But you know, as a kid, yeah, that
makes me excited. Philip Rivers is coming back, that's great.
But for this number. If it's philp Rivers, sure, Chad,

(01:03:02):
I wouldn't mind taking a piece, But if it's not
Riley Leonard and it's the other backup or some other
rookiear some guy they just picked up off the street,
I just you can't make me take it. Seattle's defense,
We've seen it time tam again. They will destroy a
lackluster quarterback performance. So their only hope. I mean, it
is terrible it is Philip Rivers or Joe Flacco gets

(01:03:23):
released by the Bengals. Other than that, it's just grim,
grim grim. If you're this Colts fan, I.

Speaker 1 (01:03:28):
Feel like we might be seeing Seattle, San Francisco, maybe
Jacksonville in the money line parlay at reduced spreads.

Speaker 2 (01:03:40):
Come Thursday again.

Speaker 3 (01:03:42):
One of every epic one that we would sit here
and be like, one of them is gonna lose, doesn't
It's not like I used to. I mean, just getting
the cover now from these big dogs, that's the win.

Speaker 2 (01:03:51):
Yeah, does feel that way?

Speaker 1 (01:03:52):
Right, All right, let's focus on some prime time games.
We're gonna watch these island games. We know we're gonna
bet these Island games. Minnesota at Dallas. Dallas is six
point favorite. It's come down a little bit from six
and a half. Minnesota went from being the is the
first team to ever go from being shut out to

(01:04:13):
winning by a shutout at significant margin as they did.

Speaker 2 (01:04:19):
I have no read on this game.

Speaker 3 (01:04:22):
No I liked Minnesota. It's it's simply because I think
their defense will want to get stops and offensively I
think gaves you a bit of design stuff up. Then
they'll be able to move the ball against this Cowboys
defense that yeah, they played better of late, but there's
still suspected many aspects of their team. So hard Rock
here in Jersey is actually five and a half, and
I'm looking there's still two books with sixes and a half.

(01:04:46):
So if you can when you take the Vikings to
get the six and a half or the six, I
think it's going to be out there. But I do
see the professionals coming in on this Viking side and
it's getting bumped down. So despite all the money, all
the tickets, early money is on the Cowboys team.

Speaker 1 (01:05:00):
I just well, it moved to move from six and
a half to six, so we know that's where the
pros are going to be so.

Speaker 3 (01:05:06):
And I think they keep coming on it. Like I
said on Sunday, I think six is a good number
from Minnesota. But I get all you're hesitant. Like I
betting JJ McCarthy on the road after a huge win.
It just doesn't appet to problect, So get I get
your hesitation. I'm there with you, the cloud filled friends
about for Monday nine.

Speaker 1 (01:05:26):
But Miami at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh is now a three point
favorite minus one twenty at hard Rock, three and a
half everywhere else. And since we stupidly walked away from
Mike Tomlin and the raw rock trends last week, I
do want to bring up that Mike Tomlin in his
career as a three plus home favorite fifty one percent
against the spread. But since twenty eighteen when we entered

(01:05:52):
into the Duck Hodges, we don't know who's going to
be quarterback, and of Ben Roethlisberger era, he's well below
five against the spread as a three plus point favorite
at home.

Speaker 3 (01:06:04):
Football is our game, a business is winning.

Speaker 1 (01:06:06):
Now we're getting all the news this week other than
Daniel Jones and the Colts, And how tragic is how
brilliantly Mike McDaniel has saved his job.

Speaker 2 (01:06:19):
And since we have to buy high.

Speaker 1 (01:06:22):
On both teams right now, I'm more inclined to sell
Tomlin and buy the Dolphins for one reason. The Dolphins
running game Devon A. Chant has just been brilliant this year,
and before he left the Jets game with a rib injury,

(01:06:44):
he will be playing this week, by the way, ninety
two yards on seven carries. That's the difference for this team.
And I know it's going to be you know, Arctic blasts,
but Arctic blasts for the Dolphins used to me and
they couldn't do anything because it was into his hands.
It's not going to be into his hands. So I'm
less uncomfortable with a team that focuses on an explosive

(01:07:06):
run game against a defense in the Steelers that has
been terrible at giving up explosive runs.

Speaker 3 (01:07:13):
Yeah, everything you said is so true. I immediately wanted
to be on Miami at three and a half. But
the freeze has scared me off because we've just talked
about how horrible to his record is and everything like
that is. But maybe the chee could is you just
two is not nothing these last three four weeks and
they'd keep winning because they have such a dominant run game.
So maybe I'm overthinking it here. Miami probably is the

(01:07:34):
right side. The three, though, is very tempting. I mean,
the hard rock already moved back to three and a half,
so something clearly came and hit that right away once
they moved it. And I'm tempted, not gonna lie tempted
to take Pittsburgh the minus three. But you're everything you're
saying is so true. It's Miami three and a half.
And we know Tomlin's record whenever he's a big favorite

(01:07:54):
like this, especially after that emotional of a win on
the road against the Raves of divisional foe, it's easy
to see them having let down here. But you know,
it's that those trends, Chad, they're going to scare me
off man, that Miami in the freezing cold. They're just
it's so bad, especial when they're playing against what this
team is right now, Pittsburgh a divisional team, so we've

(01:08:14):
seen it there. It's the double negative. It's a to
a plane against a team on the road above five
hundred tun a plane against a team that's in the
freezing cold. So a lot of shunger opinion come Thursday
on this one. But said here right now, I am
leaning towards this Pittsburgh side.

Speaker 2 (01:08:29):
Hmm. Interesting.

Speaker 1 (01:08:32):
Interesting, All right, well, listen, we got a lot to
review and think there's a lot to unpack still because
lines are still going to be moving and we're going
to get roster information. But Kansas City minus four is
a debate. New England Buffalo is a debate. Arizona will
it move? Will we start feeling all of a sudden
like we have no choice?

Speaker 3 (01:08:54):
So think I think we have like three or four
games we like legitmately like, so.

Speaker 1 (01:08:58):
I think we definitely like The Week Honesty normally like.
But I think we I circled on my list games
that I know we like Rams, New Orleans, Green Bay?

Speaker 2 (01:09:12):
Are those the same three that you have circled?

Speaker 3 (01:09:14):
I don't have anything circle, but I do like those.

Speaker 2 (01:09:19):
But those are the ones we agree on.

Speaker 3 (01:09:20):
Yeah, I'm just saying I don't write anything like you do.
That's what I love you, though, Man, you're.

Speaker 2 (01:09:25):
Taking us it taking outs. I got a whole notebook.
Fill in it. I get new one each year.

Speaker 1 (01:09:30):
Just fill it up with Sharper Square stuff. All right,
this has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Thursday with the games we
are zeroing in on. We'll talk about our head to head,
We'll talk about our brass ball so much more.

Speaker 2 (01:09:43):
Watch listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video.

Speaker 1 (01:09:48):
Subscribe to the page while you're at it. Download some Spotify,
Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, Subscribe
these five stars say whatever you want. Feedback is a
gift until next time. I love you.

Speaker 3 (01:10:00):
Together, we can do it.

Speaker 2 (01:10:02):
Nobody can do it alone, but together we can do it.

Speaker 3 (01:10:05):
Let's play our kind of football and we'll come out
of it with a win.

Speaker 1 (01:10:08):
Let's go

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