Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL WEEK 16 BETS: Bills-Browns, Chargers-Cowboys, Bucs-Panthers, 49ers-Colts, Patriots-Ravens and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

Speaker 1 (00:07):
This is the show that makes the squares sharper and
makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chadmillan. I
enjoyed as always buy my co host, my companion, Mike Bodre,
my BFF professional better Simon Hunter Ello.

Speaker 3 (00:21):
Simon Chad. How are we doing, dude?

Speaker 1 (00:24):
Big big quarterback news on Wednesday.

Speaker 2 (00:29):
I don't know if you saw it.

Speaker 1 (00:30):
Brady Cook will be the starting quarterback for the New
York Jets for the second week in a row.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Did you think I was talking about Tua.

Speaker 4 (00:40):
No, because it happened Tuesday. Interesting, lock in, buddy, got
to lock in.

Speaker 1 (00:46):
My week is all screwed up, right, because I was
in Vegas Monday Tuesday. You fly back all day Wednesday,
and like you lose track of everything when you're in Vegas,
especially when like you're just being i'mbarded by the bright
lights late into the evening, so I don't know what
day it was. I woke up this morning and like

(01:06):
I couldn't even figure out what city I was in.

Speaker 4 (01:10):
Yeah, I just know because I basically got crushed by
a bunch of pro betters because I just couldn't be
the man and say Simon says, give me Cincinnati plus
one and now they are minus four and a half.
So bad miss by me. And I don't know why
I was just I was smoothed up on the line.
I couldn't get. I couldn't get why I was moving,
why people were hammering Miami. So that's when I'm happy

(01:31):
I put a penny on.

Speaker 3 (01:32):
It at hard Rock.

Speaker 4 (01:33):
But obviously, hindsight, I think thirty minutes after our show ended,
the two D News.

Speaker 3 (01:39):
Got that when it happened, Yeah, and it moved four points.

Speaker 4 (01:41):
So yeah, that pretty shocking line in Miami plus four
and a half now against Cincinnati, well we.

Speaker 2 (01:48):
Know that one won't be in the contest.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
This is our Thursday, week sixteen episode. We are going
to narrow down to our final five now that we've
got more information about injury news, line movement and it's etc.

Speaker 2 (02:01):
Etc.

Speaker 1 (02:02):
Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify.

Speaker 2 (02:07):
Let's get into this thing. Every week. We give out
our picks. Every week.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Your fellow professional better assignment, call to critique, give us
positive affirmation, negative feedback, whatever the case. It's time to
summarize those opinions, let's do sharp.

Speaker 4 (02:24):
Calls once again. We'll start with the Thursday game.

Speaker 3 (02:32):
I knew it.

Speaker 4 (02:33):
I knew that the Los Angeles side was the super
public side. I just did not see the love by
the professionals. And they're coming on the Seaux side. So
this is my favorite. These guys think they're professionals, but
they're actually Fraud's type of game where they're yeah, we
know we're doing taking Seattle here. This is a fishy
line and we were hammered, and I'm happy with I'm
getting the rams of the dog down.

Speaker 3 (02:53):
I'll be with the public.

Speaker 4 (02:54):
I'll walk into the trap if this is one, and yeah,
this is a game. I don't forget to talk more
about tons of love the pros on the Seahawks, and
I just do not do not see what they're seeing.
But these games happen, right, it's divisional games. It's really
tough to be your divisional pony of two times in
a row. So I get their love for Seattle. I
just I think the hype is way too much for

(03:15):
backing Sam darn on this spot. But that was the
first game that really jumped out the Saturday games. I
thought it was gonna be all love for green Bay,
tons of really respected guys I know on the Bears,
and they flipped me. I'm actually on the Bear side
now where I wanted to get there. I didn't want
to be on Green Bay, just like there was something
I'm missing. But that was a really interesting game, and
obviously that Commander's game, tons of love for Washington, and

(03:37):
we knew that that was gonna be a pros versus
josen public keep hammering this ego side, and that number
is not budgeting.

Speaker 3 (03:42):
I was hoping we're gonna get seven, Like I.

Speaker 4 (03:44):
Just said, the professionals they really like Washington, so that
number is gonna hold there and moving to the Sunday games,
you know, not as much love I was hoping for
my Giants love. I do have some pros with me
on that Giant side. It's just not as locked in
like say that Washington game is, which is just all
professionals on that one side tennessee a game. I'm just
not seeing tons of pros love that the number has fallen.

(04:07):
So maybe back in allowing myself said we already missed
the best number, let's not bet it.

Speaker 3 (04:10):
Anyway, I.

Speaker 2 (04:13):
Got some thoughts.

Speaker 4 (04:14):
Okay, I'm just I'm not there. You were right about Dallas.
The pros love Dallas. Another game. I think I have
blind spot too and been talking to a little bit.
It's just I can't believe it that there are good
trends and numbers under line numbers for Dallas here in
the spot. But I still can't believe they want to
fade Herbert. I mean, this is what three straight weeks
of fading. This guy's a dog. So very unique spot.

(04:36):
And you know, a game we talked a little bit about.
I kind of love Pittsburgh. Every pro I've talked it
was all over the lines, so I understand now why
that line has been bet up so heavily. It feels
like every pro I know is on that side, on
the flip side. Most public people I've talked to, it
feels like they're on the Pittsburgh side.

Speaker 3 (04:53):
So I think a really unique one.

Speaker 4 (04:55):
And you know, the final two games we talked about.

Speaker 3 (04:58):
You know, we both love New England. Every pro I've
talked to you, for the most part, loves it.

Speaker 4 (05:01):
There are some pros on the Ravens, right, This is
a unique spot of a team that's been there before
in the Ravens for the veteran quarter wick face of
the team that has not been there before, and that
just blew a twenty one point lead.

Speaker 3 (05:12):
So I get it. Maybe I'm leaking a little bit on.

Speaker 4 (05:14):
The Patriots, but I still think the number is inflated
and the Ravens are an overrated team. In the last
one we talked a little bit about it. We liked
the forty nine Ers. All the pros I've talked to,
for the most part like the Colts. But honestly, even
if we're walking to a trap there, Chad, I still
think it's a good spot for this foreign Iris team.
I just I don't know how the Colts offense keeps
up with this forty nine ers offense, which is just.

Speaker 3 (05:35):
Fully healthy right now.

Speaker 4 (05:36):
And they're a machine when they got all their guys back,
you see with Purty, they're just unstoppable. So really fun
games to break down this weekend. You know, a lot
of primetime games to talk about it. It wasn't so much
the one PMS or four PMS. It was really felt
like all the primetime games the pros are hidden, So
really fun week All.

Speaker 2 (05:52):
Right, let's get into it.

Speaker 1 (05:53):
Let's start to break them down first before we get
into the games.

Speaker 2 (05:57):
Quick announcement. We saw there was an issue.

Speaker 1 (05:59):
Seeing the overall Leaderberd board for the Sharp or Square
Pro Football pick them contest the free contest at Sharper
Square at the Volume dot com. This has been fixed,
so here is the announcement of the season long standing leaders.
Right now three players are at the top with a

(06:22):
perfect ten and oh start. Congrats to Jack mac DM
six one three shooter neoter. There are still seven long
weeks left, so as anybody's game. All right, I do
want to talk about the Rams in Seattle just for
a minute. This line has moved. It flipped from Seattle

(06:45):
to one point underdog too. Now Seattle's a one and
a half point favorite. Look, Pooka, Pooka, Pooka, Pooka, Pooka,
what are you doing? Two weeks ago it was Pooka
live streaming from the locker room, which is a no
no for the Rams, and then he's getting yelled at

(07:06):
by veteran players. This week it's Puka going on another
live stream as a guest, with some popular streamers saying
NFL refs are the worst. They just want to get
on TV. They're just lawyers who want to tell their friends, Hey,
check this out. I'm going to call a pass interference

(07:26):
and then I'm going to be on TV. Why is
Puka turning into a distraction?

Speaker 2 (07:34):
Is what is he doing?

Speaker 3 (07:37):
I mean, the simpler version of it.

Speaker 4 (07:38):
And this is a guy that what do you go
to college at Utah and now he's at LA and
he was a quiet, shy little boy, but he's come
out and he's just come out of his closet.

Speaker 3 (07:50):
He's twenty four now, so he's young, dumb in LA and.

Speaker 4 (07:55):
The second best, third best receiver in football right now
stat wise.

Speaker 3 (07:59):
So his head can't get any bigger.

Speaker 4 (08:01):
I mean, this guy, he's in that mode where he
everything he thinks, everything he says he thinks is the
right truth, where I think the dumbest thing I saw
he said vegetables give you inflation, which could be true, but.

Speaker 2 (08:11):
Just inflation or inflammation.

Speaker 3 (08:15):
Whatever it was. I don't know.

Speaker 2 (08:16):
I didn't even heard it.

Speaker 3 (08:17):
I was just like, I don't know what Pook was
talking about.

Speaker 4 (08:19):
I'm like you, I'm like, I wish he got off
these shows and just you know, listen to his head
coach who told him these guys can't come to the facility,
like he didn't want him to do those interviews with
those kids on their live stream. And you know, there's
just nothing again from other than his you know, up
in the level of his ariority on that community of
like you know, nonsports fans, right, these are video game people,
I'm assuming who watch these streamers. So maybe that's his idea, right,

(08:43):
get a new fan basis for himself.

Speaker 3 (08:45):
But it's a distraction.

Speaker 4 (08:46):
Like you said, the Rams don't need do I think
it affected the spread? No, I think the spread was
affected by Devanta adams injury. But yeah, not the best
start for the Rams where they had that drama and
then their flight was delayed, I believe getting into the
Seattle So a lot of negatives to start for the
Rams in this matchup chat.

Speaker 3 (09:03):
I agree with you on that, but.

Speaker 2 (09:05):
It doesn't change your opinion.

Speaker 4 (09:07):
No, this just feels like again it's it's all about
picking your spots. But like I'm not I'm not going
to force us one to our contest obviously, uh, but
it just it feels like a little bit overreaction to
the Seattle thing where.

Speaker 3 (09:21):
It feels like the most pros I talked.

Speaker 4 (09:24):
To they think they have to beat Seattle here and
that this is a really tough spot for the Rams
to be backing them, And you know, my.

Speaker 3 (09:31):
Mindset is it doesn't doesn't this line just seem a
little fishy to you.

Speaker 4 (09:36):
I I just can't get over where uh, I don't
know it's Seattle really a one and a half point favorite.
But I told you I'm too biased, I think with
this Rams team, And well, you love.

Speaker 1 (09:45):
The Rams all season, and you've had them higher rated
than anybody else all season, So now they're living up
to your rating, and the Seahawks book, they're they haven't
looked good right like Sam Darnold.

Speaker 2 (09:55):
They nearly lost to a grandfather literally.

Speaker 4 (10:00):
Which again and it's another reason I back them, because
it's like, those are the things we like. We like
back in the teams that look bad that we know
are really good. Facing a team that you know, might
have had their best game of the season. That was
an incredible comeback by the Rams in a really tough
spot on a sure week. Now, But I keep going
back to all these mcveigh's stats. That's what like, I
keep I can't get over how incredible McVay has been

(10:22):
this late in the year and you know, I can
read it to people again if they want to hear
the McVeigh twenty eight and eleven straight up twenty seven
to eleven in the month of December in his career
against the spread since twenty twenty one, he's seventeen and
three against the spread in the month of December. So
you know we already know he owns the Seahawks like
he just I think this year they didn't cover. We

(10:44):
definitely bet that the Rams I believe were two and
a half point favorites. They were up fourteen, I believe,
in the in the fourth quarter, and the Seahawks back
doored it. They lost by two, so they covered the
number of they lost by two in a game that
they I just felt like the Rams were way better. So,
like I said, I if you want to follow what
I call the fake sharps, they're going to be on
the Seahawks this week, and I think the Rams it's

(11:06):
going to be the spot. So I'll go in to
see where this one goes. Like I said, it's it's
a game where maybe I am too closest Rams team.
I love them too much, but I just can't believe
people are hammering Sam Darnold as a favorite in this
divisional game. And like I told you chat, there's a
lot of really interesting stats about backing McVeigh in this

(11:27):
type of spot, and.

Speaker 3 (11:28):
He actually does really well in short weeks.

Speaker 4 (11:30):
On the flip side, you know this Seahawks team since
they since they faced the Rams, it's obviously been different coaches,
different quarterbacks. They're on to three in the spot of
facing the Rams on short week where the Rams tend
to play really well in there.

Speaker 3 (11:44):
And the biggest one jumps out.

Speaker 4 (11:46):
To me is I talk to you about the home
field advantage for the Seahawks that's been irrelevant since like
twenty fifteen. They actually have illusion record at home and
against the spread at home in this exact spot.

Speaker 3 (11:57):
So a short week that's facing a.

Speaker 4 (12:00):
Divisional opponent that's above five hundred, they're oh and six
in this spot Seattle Seahawk since twenty twenty. So again
it's even with their head coach, he's been there. He's
owing too in this spot. So it's not a good
spot historically for Seattle. And on the flip side, like
I said, McVeigh, he dominates these late season He's just
such a prepared coach and you know, another distraction could

(12:20):
be had a baby. I love that kind of stuff
like That's those are my favorite things where coaches or
players at babies and I bet on them anytime touchdowns.
Obviously I can't do that on McVeigh, but I will
be taking aside here. But like I said, it's I
gained that luckily we to can't put in our contest
because I'm confident in it, but I think I might
be blinding to my love of this Rams team.

Speaker 1 (12:37):
All right, that's enough on a Thursday night game that
ten people are going to get to hear the show
and then actually bet on Washington at Philadelphia. We talked
about this on Tuesday, Saturday Night, six and a half
point underdogs, the Washington Commanders are going to be our

(13:01):
brass Balls bet of the Week, presented by hard Rock Bett.

Speaker 3 (13:08):
You know what it takes, brass balls.

Speaker 1 (13:13):
Look, I'm kind of taking your lead on this because
you know the Eagles as well as anybody, and you
were leading Commanders on Tuesday, and when we talked about
it before we came on the show, I presented three
games that I could have thought could be brass Balls contenders,
and the only one that we felt really comfortable with

(13:35):
was Washington Lane Johnson still out.

Speaker 2 (13:38):
I think that matters.

Speaker 1 (13:40):
The commanders have just been better with Marcus Mariota, which
we've been saying for the past few weeks.

Speaker 2 (13:47):
Jalen Carter will still be out.

Speaker 1 (13:49):
I think that impacts how the Eagles can defend against
a mobile quarterback, and talk about wanting to be in
a spot where you're fading a team. We want to
fade the team that just blew somebody out and all
of a sudden people think the Eagles are fixed when
we're not quite convinced the Eagles are fixed. So at
six and a half, this just feels a little bit inflated.

(14:12):
As you noted in sharp calls, Wise guys are on
this one as well, the real Wise guys, not the
big Wise guys.

Speaker 4 (14:18):
It's true though it feels an inflated line. I had
this model out of four and it's not shocking.

Speaker 1 (14:24):
Though.

Speaker 4 (14:24):
If I was the general public and didn't have a
model or know much about it, why wouldn't I bet
the Eagles here?

Speaker 3 (14:30):
Right? They looked incredible.

Speaker 4 (14:31):
They look like they got things right, and we've talked
about they're a team that if they can figure out
that offense, why would they not be the number two
or number three best team in the NFC. So this
is obviously two teams that are going totally different directions.
The commanders, like we've said, they're shut down their star quarterback.
You know, how motivated would they be? Blah blah blah.
I think that's why the public is just coming in

(14:52):
so heavier. I don't know about you, but most books
I've looked at or talked to, it's like eighty percent
to nine percent of all the money, all the bets
are coming this Eagles team.

Speaker 1 (15:00):
Yeah, that's why it's so surprising to me it hasn't
moved to seven. That's clearly sort of resistance coming from
the professionals.

Speaker 4 (15:08):
Yeah, it could be part of it. It's also I
think the books too are just like they're like, well,
we're thinking, here's just who are the Eagles to be
catching seven against a divisional opponent like this?

Speaker 1 (15:18):
Where who are the super Bowl champions to be catching seven?
But I get it, like they haven't looked like the
Super Bowl champions at all.

Speaker 4 (15:25):
Yeah, it's like it's the they haven't had a horrible
season like the Chiefs have had, but it's been close
to it. Like they've it's could have it could have
fallen apart a bunch of different spots here, So it's
just a bet for the Egles to prove it to me, right.
And you know, we always talk about the numbers with Hurts.
There's some real numbers here to fade Hurts, especially when
it comes to this late in the season of December.

Speaker 3 (15:45):
He is great usually against the spread the start.

Speaker 4 (15:48):
The year, but then the public keeps betting him fulling
more low with him and the number goes too far.
And we've seen that now through his early career because
the Eagles obviously every year he's been a starter, he's
made the playoffs, right, and he's kind of been in
that spot where, you know, not the last two years
or not last year, but the year before they totally
fell off. So that's why these numbers are skewed a
little bit. His December's numbers, but these ones just popped

(16:09):
out to me. So December later hurts five and seven
against the spread when he faces the NFC East, He's
one to five in his career in the month of
December against the spread. So we talked about it. He
just gets inflated in our division. I mean Eagles division. Historically,
it's kind of been a bottom feed of the division.
Right There are usually two teams really good, the other
two are just absolutely terrible. And it's been like that

(16:30):
for his whole career, these last four or five years
for Hurts.

Speaker 3 (16:33):
So even against.

Speaker 4 (16:34):
Bad teams in his division in December, he has struggled.
It's been very bizarre. And another stet I really loved
was the Eagles were a double digit favorite last week.
Hurts for some reason, he's horrible at games following being
a double digit favorite. So when he's double digit your favorite, Hurts,
he's three and six against the spread in this following game.
It just shows they usually blow teams out, live up

(16:56):
to it. In the following game, they have a letdown game.
So I've seen that time and time again. On the
flip side, dan Quinn, you know, give him a ton
of grief. I just don't think he's not going to
be head coach. But as a dog, he's been great,
especially at covering seven to four against the spread and
this exact spot three and one in his own division.
So you know, we like dan Quinn. We like the numbers.
When he's back in his own division as a dog.
It's just when he's a favorite. I really couldn't get

(17:17):
over how much overrated he was. So we talked. We
knew watch it was coming back down to earth this year.

Speaker 3 (17:23):
Felix.

Speaker 4 (17:23):
They have, But it feel like the public is totally
left m for dead. Yes, happened last week. They were
hammering the Giants team Like you just said, the number
didn't budge last week it's happening once again. The public
is hammering the opposite side of the commander's side, and
it's not budge. So for both of us, I think
we'd feel much better we wake up Saturday in the
numbers five and a half, because it's like, Okay, at
least some real professional money's coming, and we both have

(17:45):
the best number. But even this gets the seven, I'm
still going to back this Washington team comes Saturday.

Speaker 1 (17:50):
All right, Washington Commanders brass Ball's better of the week.
Look talk about teams that, as the season goes on,
historically are bigger and bigger favorites and the quarterback ends
up not being as good against the spread because of it.
That has been the Kansas City Chiefs since twenty eighteen.

Speaker 2 (18:15):
Now Patrick Mahomes is out.

Speaker 1 (18:17):
Kansas City has gone from ostensibly eleven and a half
when he was playing against the Tennessee Titans, to four.

Speaker 2 (18:25):
And a half, down to three and a half.

Speaker 1 (18:27):
Now it's down to three in the contest, it's currently
three and a half. So I want to have this
conversation thinking about the three and a half and the three.
I think there are so many issues for the Chiefs
right now beyond Mahomes. Right they are missing so many
offensive linemen. And we were on the Chiefs last week.
They lost that game because they couldn't protect Mahomes obviously,

(18:50):
but they're also down Hollywood Brown this week she rice.
Will he play again? Will he play coming off the concussion?
We don't know. They're already having a hard time getting
any kind of explosive runs. We know the Titans had
been covering being more competitive.

Speaker 2 (19:12):
I mean, all of a sudden, the Titans look attractive
to me.

Speaker 3 (19:17):
So you know what to do? People hammer that Kansas
City Chief I know you want.

Speaker 4 (19:23):
I'm not gonna let us put in the contest regardless.
Maybe if it was four and a half Tennessee, which
was to me that was where the Sharps really made
their statement.

Speaker 3 (19:31):
That was the sharp number.

Speaker 4 (19:32):
But you are betting into a bad number and what
feels like a bad spot. The unders still looks good
and unders thirty seven and a half. Like you just said,
I don't know how the Chiefs are going to score.
I still don't know how Tennessee is gonna score. This
is still a spag defense that as bad as the
Chiefs have been, the defense has been pretty good, right,
it's really the offense I've disappointed this season for this
Chiefs team. So I get you're coming from Chadyard with

(19:53):
all the pros. They're all over it. I think the
public are with you too, Like I don't see the
public betting Minshew as a favorite in this spot. So
I don't know what to deal with this one. I'm
hoping I'm happy just to avoid it.

Speaker 1 (20:03):
A fight on maybe a little taste of the Titans
on the money line.

Speaker 3 (20:07):
Do you think whatever you want to do.

Speaker 2 (20:11):
Well?

Speaker 1 (20:12):
Your lack of support onlike a really ugly dog is
shocking to me. The whole Titan titansdo has gotten into
your head.

Speaker 2 (20:22):
It's totally in your head right now.

Speaker 4 (20:26):
I just I don't want to be there. I just
don't want to be there with them. Like last week,
not watching a second of their game was very nice.

Speaker 2 (20:32):
It was enjoyable, right, Yeah, to think that they just
didn't exist with.

Speaker 3 (20:36):
What was pure good.

Speaker 1 (20:37):
Sure, Minnesota minus three at the New York Giants betting
the Giants plus three with Simon says, I hope everyone
is better because this line is going to move to
two and a half because it looks like.

Speaker 2 (20:50):
The money is coming in on the Giants Again.

Speaker 1 (20:55):
I don't think there are metrics to make us feel
better about this one. It's really about fading a quarterback
who until two weeks ago people were trying to figure
out what their option was going to be next year
in Minnesota to replace JJ McCarthy, and how bad they
must feel that they don't have Sam Darnold, that they

(21:16):
didn't have Daniel Jones, that they no longer had Kirk Cousins.
And then the guy beats up on two bad defenses
and the Commanders and the Cowboys, and all of a sudden,
he's a three point road favorite. That's what we're fading here,
and that's why Simon says, and that's why we bet it,
and that's why it'll be in the contest.

Speaker 3 (21:32):
Yeah, like you just nailed it.

Speaker 4 (21:34):
It's such a nice spot to fade the Vikings, and
we actually do have data backing it up that, you know,
the Vikings in such an emotional spot, which that really
was the Vikings playing in Dallas on Sunday night last week.
It's been unique this season, so teams basically playing in
Dallas then on the road the next game after playing
Dallas their own six against the spread this season and

(21:56):
we go, Okay, that's not that big of a deal.
That's kind of just this season and shell, but it
really does feel like it kind of tends to that game, right,
that was such an emotional win. And you go back
through a lot of Dallas games this year, they all
they most for the most part, have been really close,
high emotional games for a lot of these teams, So
it makes sense there are letdowns in the following games.
And you know the ones that dropped out jumped out

(22:17):
to me is just this season teams that play in
Dallas and then go on the road the next game
they're failing to cover by almost eleven points per game
and that next game, like.

Speaker 3 (22:24):
That's not a small margin, that's a really big gap.

Speaker 4 (22:27):
That shows there is a let down, And you know,
the Vikings, I had a couple of reach out to me,
is there really anything to dive into about the Vikings
being an indoor team now going to play outdoors in
the cold? You shake head there actually is chat like
they're not a outdoor type of team. In December or later,
they are six and eleven against the spread and they've
been covering by failing to cover by five points per

(22:47):
game in those exact spots. So it does prove out
that they're not a cold weather type of team.

Speaker 3 (22:52):
Right.

Speaker 4 (22:52):
They are a dome team and now they are going
outside to play a Giants team that you know, they've
been playing in the elements.

Speaker 3 (22:57):
They're used to it.

Speaker 4 (22:58):
So that is something that another probably could take away
for this Giants team. But at the end of the day,
my biggest thing I'm taking away.

Speaker 3 (23:03):
From it is just a matchup.

Speaker 4 (23:04):
I think JJ is going to struggle with this type
of defense the Giants have, which is a very fast
front that can give him problems because we've seen those
teams you just talked about. They don't have any pass
rush to get after him, and JJ looked so comfortable
passing against those type of teams because he had no
pressure in his face. We've seen him struggle this year.
It's when he has to move outside the pocket the
plays breakdown. That's when JJ struggles. So I'm back in

(23:27):
the Giants here, and like you said, it's about the number.
The number is coming down, so I'm happy to see
the pros are joining me on it.

Speaker 3 (23:32):
It's a big split game so the public. I think
it's like eighty.

Speaker 4 (23:37):
Percent of the tickets right now we're on in the
Minnesota Vikings, but seventy percent of the money is coming
in on the Giants. So that just shows this is
going to be a pros versus Joe's type of game.
So I am shocked to see it's coming down, but
not shocked to see the pros line up on it.
Just feels like a very nice spot to back this
Giants team.

Speaker 1 (23:51):
Well, look, the one thing we got to consider is
that it's two and a half in the contest. So
do we still want to play it if it's two
and a half in the contest, because that's what's going
to be.

Speaker 4 (24:02):
Yeah, I mean it's it's tough, Like I I let
that scare me last week with the Saints and we
ate it on that one. So it's gonna it's gonna
be a tough choice to make.

Speaker 1 (24:10):
I can't believe that the Minnesota Vikings aren't Indo our team.
It just disappoints me. I think, what the Bills are
doing your future, buddy, I know that's what I was
going to say, Like, what the Bills are doing is amazing.
They're building, they're leading into their attitude, and I'm seeing
all this stuff about the Bears and whether they're building
in the suburbs or now they're thinking.

Speaker 2 (24:32):
Let me tell you something, I'm.

Speaker 1 (24:34):
Already upset that the Bills might build a dome stadium
just so Chicago can get a Super Bowl.

Speaker 2 (24:38):
I get it, I get it, but like.

Speaker 1 (24:41):
You don't understand how much of a part of the
personality of being a Bears fan and sitting outside and
being an outdoor team and being built for December and
what and what Caleb Williams calls ball weather, that's an
advantage And like, all of a sudden, if the Bears
build a dome, three of the four teams in their

(25:03):
division now have domes and only Green.

Speaker 2 (25:06):
Bay won't it.

Speaker 1 (25:07):
Actually, it's so disappointing to me. I can't believe it.
And let's not even start about Indiana. Like obviously I
went to Indiana University. I have so many friends who
are from Indiana in college, and some of them from
like Northwest Indiana, like you know, outside like Munster, Indiana
and whatever. And they would say to me, I live

(25:28):
closer to Chicago than you do, and they try to
claim that they're from Chicago. I'm like, dude, you're from
fucking Indiana. So if the Bears go to Indiana, I
am just going to be they're losing all their character.
You build a dome stadium in Indiana, you might as
well be the Colts Now.

Speaker 4 (25:46):
It would be not only embarrassing as an organization, but
like you said, that's such a part of the city,
the culture, just the whole area being a Bear weather
their weather. Just like like you, when I thought there
was even a chance of the Bill has been a
dumb stadium, I literally got sick to my stomach. I
feel the same way thinking about the Bears, And it's

(26:06):
just it's the underlying problem in this country.

Speaker 3 (26:08):
At the end of the day, it's all about the money.

Speaker 2 (26:10):
All about I hate money. I hate so upsetting.

Speaker 3 (26:13):
Yeah, it's so.

Speaker 1 (26:15):
There's no culture left, there's no character left. Character is
the person you put on the dollar bill. It's just upsetting.
I was gonna talk about the Jets, but I don't
even want to. There's nothing to say.

Speaker 4 (26:28):
No, I'm yeah, like I'm still on the Jets, but
I'm with you. It's like a bet that I feel
like I have to make, but everyone knows my position.
I'm all in on Shuck. I've basically hit up every
family member of my family and being like, hey, if
this guy hits, I'll buy you something nice coming in January.
Like that's how all in I am, just because I
want to get as much good vibe as I came
behind this kid, and I think social media's coming a

(26:49):
long way.

Speaker 3 (26:49):
I rarely saw a post about him.

Speaker 4 (26:51):
Now it feels like every day I'm seeing stuff pop
up of these like you know, YouTube commentators or whatever,
just talking about how good he's looked and how you know,
like I've talked about they he came and he won
two straight divisional games on a Saints team that was
just left for dead. So the Shuck hype, I don't
need to keep hyping up anymore. It's going global and
out chat. We're getting there.

Speaker 1 (27:09):
It's global buffalo with Cleveland back in the day, look
we auto played Cleveland at home, there are a ten
point underdog. Even a few weeks ago against the Titans,
we would have not hesitated on this one. Then you
made all these points about how bad the defense has
been playing the way they looked against the Titans at home.
They've got an offensive line that is decimated. So now

(27:32):
they've got a quarterback. I don't know how they're going
to score enough points. Like if Buffalo scores a touchdown
and two field goals, they win this game. And it
worries me betting on this offense to try to find
a way to cover the back door when I don't
know if they're going to be able to So.

Speaker 4 (27:50):
Let's lose money on the Bears, then I mean not Bears,
the Bills, then chat, that's the move. The move is
for us to back the Bills. We know, we knew
there's something off with this line because we should love it.
And I'm like you, like, as soon as I saw
this one, it's like, what am I missing here? And
a game that obviously I want to dive in the
numbers on, just because when you do think of Josh

(28:10):
Allen this spot, I remember the back when I thinking, well,
isn't this the type of team that Josh Allen does
beat up on because he wasn't he would have overlook
such a great defense, like especially a defense with Mile
Garrett and shout out to our guy Evan Ingrams. He
had some amazing stats about this exact spot. So when
Josh Allen plays a defense that is allowing less than
twenty points per game, Allen in his career twenty eight
and nine against the spread.

Speaker 3 (28:32):
No yeah.

Speaker 4 (28:33):
And when he's facing a team that allows more than
twenty eight points per game, Josh Allen's eight and eleven
in his career against the spread. So how bizarre is
that he doesn't cover against teams that give up a
ton of points, but teams that are very stingy defensively,
he is unbelievable against them.

Speaker 2 (28:50):
That's crazy.

Speaker 4 (28:51):
It's the best mark of any quarterbacks since three So
like it's a huge outlier. But we always talk about
Josh Allen's that guy where it's like you find this
type of stats lead into it. I'm not going to
fight it here, like I wanted to be on the Browns,
but once I saw that statu It's like, okay, he
tends to show up and even more, there are even
more crazy numbers. So since twenty ten, the Bills have

(29:11):
been listed against the Browns five meetings. They're five and
oh straight up in those games, winning by more than seven.
You know, the Browns are a big home dog. So
you know we've seen home dogs this year covering right.
I think they're eleven and six against the spread, these
big home dogs. So so okay, maybe we need to
lean into it and just blindly bet the home dog,
which is.

Speaker 3 (29:30):
What mean Chad usually want to do.

Speaker 4 (29:32):
But when I saw those Josh Allen numbers, it's like, Okay,
this guy blows up these really bad teams, and you know,
is there a letdown after playing New England? No Josh
Allen on the road, after facing Newland Patriots. He is
ten and five against the spread against outside divisional opponents,
So plays divisional teams, you think there'd be a let

(29:53):
down the following game.

Speaker 3 (29:54):
There is.

Speaker 4 (29:54):
He's ten and five against the spread those exact games,
covering by when was four points per game. So a
lot of just underlying numbers out like us and we
already talked like the Bills and the what we alreay
talk about the bigges. One jumped out to me is
the Bills top three, top two, whatever you want to
put him as the best running team of football. This
Browns team has struggled against their run these last couple
of weeks, and that's what really jumped out to me

(30:14):
is that was what they were so dominant at. They
were so great against the run, and their secondary we
talked about is really good. So it was like, Okay,
that's why their Browns are stealing these games. Early in
the year, teams kind of run against and they had
to pass, and that's what the Browns wanted you do
because they're gonna get you to turn the ball over.
So looking at this matchup, I think, you know, Cook
might have thirteen rushing touchdowns, Josh Allen would have twelve
rushing touchdowns. It's like this is the juggernaut of a

(30:37):
rushing team. They just once they get into the red area,
the red zone, they just score rushing touchdowns. And the
Browns have struggled in that exact spot. So it feels
like this is actually a Bills.

Speaker 3 (30:47):
I can't believe it. Bills minus ten.

Speaker 2 (30:49):
I'm shocked.

Speaker 1 (30:51):
I know I'm shocked only because I'm happy about it,
because I didn't want to bet the Browns even and
even believe.

Speaker 4 (30:58):
At least would be like, well, at least be lost
on Josh Allen, I don't know, right, No, I mean
I can't do it.

Speaker 2 (31:04):
I can't. I think.

Speaker 1 (31:07):
That's why I said, historically this would have been an
auto play, and we haven't done it, and there's something
that's holding us back.

Speaker 2 (31:14):
And I think you just nailed it.

Speaker 3 (31:16):
So that twenty eight nine stats crazy.

Speaker 1 (31:20):
I kind of like the idea of having the Bills
is a big favorite on the road against the Browns
in the contest.

Speaker 2 (31:25):
For us, it feels very contrarian.

Speaker 4 (31:28):
Yeah, I mean I'll be ten and a half, but
I wouldn't mind having that discussion someday.

Speaker 3 (31:32):
Moore. I bet it as soon as I saw those numbers.
It's all right.

Speaker 4 (31:34):
I'll take a position as because hard Rocket. There's only
one other book out of the ten, so if you
want the ten, unfortunately for you, if you don't have
a hard Rocket, probably not going to find it, and
most other books have already moved at ten and a half.

Speaker 3 (31:44):
So I'll be interesting if the pros do bet it down.

Speaker 4 (31:46):
I just think I don't know how many pros are
gonna be taking big stands here with Shador Sanders in
this defense that might have given up on the season.

Speaker 1 (31:52):
Yeap Jacksonville plus three at Denver. No team in the
NFL has been luckier than one of the teams playing
in this contest. Simon which team has been the luckiest team?

Speaker 4 (32:10):
I mean, I know, I want to say Jags with Denver.
You feel like Denver's been pretty lucky.

Speaker 2 (32:15):
Denver Broncos, Denver Broncos.

Speaker 1 (32:17):
We're losing that game against the Packers if Micah Parsons
doesn't go out, if their offensive line talent doesn't go out,
if Christian Watson doesn't go out. Teams that are on
an eleven game winning streak fourteen thirty six and two
against spread in the following game. After the eleventh game,
all the talk about Liam Cohne and Trevor Lawrence. To me,

(32:40):
don't forget. And I've said this for the past four weeks.
The difference in this offense has been Jacobe Myers giving
them that possession type receiver who can run the routes
across the field, Like that's the guy that has been missing.
I'm a little nervous back in a Trevor Lawrence the
coming off of a career game. When the Vibes are

(33:01):
so good on the road in altitude against this defense.
It's a big number for a game in a team
that against the Broncos has been winning those one score games.
In the way they lost them, there's got to be
some aggression coming.

Speaker 4 (33:18):
Yeah, And I couldn't believe that I liked even like
the Jaguars were most pro as I've talked to, they
like Denver, or they're just avoiding this game. I think
it's what the public sentiment is, right, it's how can
you trust Trevor Lawrence on the road, possibly in the cold,
in this spot against a Denver's defense that.

Speaker 3 (33:33):
Or they have fifty eight sacks this season.

Speaker 4 (33:34):
They've been absolutely dominant to the defense obviously, And you know,
Bo Nicks, that was an incredible game. Like you said that,
there is a world where maybe, yes, Green Bay does
win it, but bow Knick's playing that way, they're going
to be.

Speaker 3 (33:47):
A really tough team to beat. When he's playing that
type of level.

Speaker 4 (33:49):
Right, he's just so good moving outside the pocket and
throwing the ball downfield. But we've seen him there plenty
of balls into the grass, right, We've seen it when
those those outside the pocket rollouts are not hitting. And
to me, the biggest difference here is what I've talked about, Like,
I feel like the Jags have a legit run game,
and on the flip side Denver, you know, Harvey's tried
his best, but you know they lose JK.

Speaker 3 (34:11):
Dobbins. The run game has not been the same to
me for this Denvers team.

Speaker 4 (34:13):
And you know, Jaguars quietly had one of the best
defenses in all football. I don't believe they've given up
even one hundred yard carrier this season. Like teams have
not been to run the ball against this Jags team,
which makes sense, right, They've had tons of years here
draft at the top of the draft, they've just been
drafting d lineman and it's worked out like they are
really stout against the run. And you know, looking at

(34:36):
all the trends and everything like that, the first one
I want to go to is how is bow knicks
off that type of game, you know, a game where
he throws three touchdowns no interceptions. He looks so incredible.
It's very small sample, right, He's had a very small
NFL career. He's three and four straight up against the spread.
In the following game after that type of performance. Okay,
not much to take away from it. I just wanted
to give that out there what he's like after having

(34:56):
such an incredible performance the Jags. On the flip side,
they've been really impressive with Trevor Lawrence off of those
type of wins. Doesn't matter who that coaches. In his
whole career, he's been great when you back him after
those type of wins and just going through the numbers,
when he goes off a win that eats team wins
by more than ten points or more in his career.
The following game, he's ten to four against the spread
Trevor Lawrence, which, again small sample, that was really impressive

(35:20):
to me. The biggest one, too, is the fact they
scored forty eight points this Jaguars Seement's say, Okay, that's
an insane amount of points. You expect teams to naturally
have letdowns after those type of games. Since two thousand,
teams that scored forty eight points in the previous game
November or later fifty nine to forty two against the spread.
So wow, Yeah, shockingly auto play type of spot for

(35:42):
these type of teams where it just shows maybe early
in the year it's kind of fluky November or later.
This is who you are, Like your offense doesn't matter
if you're playing the shitty teams, you're legit. Like you
put up those type of numbers where they have that
much film on you. It's really impressive. We've been beating
the bush of how impressive we've been with Liam Comb,
but it's really a Trevor Lawrence stat like the fact

(36:02):
that he these last few weeks. I know it's not
great teams, but he's been playing a really good ball.
So you know, I might be stepping right into a chat.
I know that I'm backing Trevor Lawrence on the road
here against a really great Denver defense. But I'm interesting
how this Denver team does. I do think this Jaguar team,
just by the general public two as being underrated.

Speaker 3 (36:21):
I mean Puka.

Speaker 4 (36:22):
Speaking of Puka, I saw a clip of him, another
clip of him saying, who's the biggest flaw flawed team
in the AFC? First team popped up second in Jaguars.
He's like, they are frauds. They're gonna get it rolled
in round one. So not even though general public thinks
the Jags are frauds, they're his own peers in the
league do not believe the Jaguars team.

Speaker 3 (36:41):
So you know, interesting number.

Speaker 4 (36:43):
I thought we were thought today we'd have three and
a half because I thought the Pros would come in
heavy on this Denvery team. It's either of them been
dipping their toes on a little bit on Denver. They've
been avoiding it. So this number is not bud So
I am confident the Jaguars team. But for contest play
for US two and a half, Yeah, it has to be.

Speaker 3 (36:58):
Three and a half.

Speaker 2 (36:59):
Well, the contest it is three and a half, so.

Speaker 4 (37:01):
I would I'd like that in now and just in
case because I I'm issue with the pros do for US.
I could see this being two and a half by kickoff.
I do see professional money coming to the Shaguars team.

Speaker 1 (37:10):
Las Vegas Raiders plus fourteen against the Houston Texans.

Speaker 2 (37:16):
Simon, this is the bilow So high spot of the year.

Speaker 1 (37:24):
Oh my god, Okay, what do we do when a
team gets shut out?

Speaker 2 (37:28):
What do we do the next week?

Speaker 3 (37:30):
I know what I do. I don't know what you do.
What do you do?

Speaker 2 (37:32):
We bet on the team that got shut out?

Speaker 3 (37:34):
Good man?

Speaker 1 (37:35):
So the Las Vegas Raiders at plus fourteen and a
half in the contest.

Speaker 2 (37:40):
We got to put him in.

Speaker 3 (37:42):
I don't know.

Speaker 4 (37:43):
If we can't find a fifth one, we can do it,
but it's we're simply betting this.

Speaker 3 (37:47):
Because of the trends of the numbers, and just I.

Speaker 1 (37:49):
Got news for you, buddy, We're not going to find
a fifth one.

Speaker 3 (37:53):
I don't know. We might.

Speaker 4 (37:54):
I have games, I like, I'm just lukewarm on them
right now because it's just it's such funky lines. We
just I feel like the this is the most threes
we've had all season, Like there's just six games. We're
just there's hanging threes and it's like, I just don't
know what to do with them. But this game here,
like you said that, the trends obviously they love this
Raiders team, Like you already gave out that one. They

(38:15):
got shut out the previous week before this season, teams
that got shot out the week before six and zero
against the spread.

Speaker 3 (38:21):
You know, it's a great.

Speaker 4 (38:23):
Lazy static we talk about we love those type of
stats and the teams that fits that description. This week
it's the Raiders in Cincinnati, and one team's lines moved
three points.

Speaker 3 (38:32):
The Raiders line has moved the.

Speaker 4 (38:33):
Other way for three points, right, I think it was
eleven or eleven and a half. Now it is fourteen
to fourteen and a half. And it's a unique spot, right.
This Texans team, like you said, they are juggernaut. Their
last loss was a game we bet them on, right,
the game they should have won against Denver and CJ
got knocked out of. Since then, they've won six straight
and since CJ has come back, I mean last week

(38:53):
that was to me CJ's best game this season. That
looked like CJ from rookie year. Just incredibly discipline downfield,
throws right on target, just in total total unison. And
you know the underlying numbers here, let's dive into it.
Six game win street for Texans teams is the exact spot.
There are eleven and sixteen against the spread since two

(39:14):
thousand and three when they are double digit favorites. In
this exact spot, there are two and seven against the spread.
So a very unique, rare spot. Where like Chad just said,
the numbers, they're telling you you're supposed to back the
Raiders here, and I can't believe we're going to do it.
I can't believe I'm agreeing with you. But I bet
the Raiders. I've taken the numbers, and it doesn't matter

(39:36):
to me if it's Kenny Pickett. I know you look
horrible against Egus obviously last week, but even as bad
as you looked him and Gino Smith, there truly is
no difference like it really there is not. So we'll
see who the quarterback is chat and maybe that will
dictate our decision. But I have no problem locking the
center of fourteen and a half. And if it is
Geno and it drops down to thirteen or twelve, at
least we have good value we can lie to ourselves.

Speaker 3 (39:56):
We have to keep them in there.

Speaker 4 (39:57):
But I'm just I'm just scared because I just don't
trust this Raiders team right now.

Speaker 3 (40:01):
Just I think I saw some crazy.

Speaker 4 (40:03):
Stat They'd been shut out three times in the previous
like forty years. They've been shut out twice this season.
So it's like it's just all negative. And you know,
we talk all the time. One bad GM eight years
ago can seek your organization for the next twenty years.
We're living it with Mayodoc and Gruden. Just TV figures

(40:23):
brought into an organization that've just derailed and train wrecked
this team in so many different ways.

Speaker 3 (40:27):
So yeah, it's it's bad, bad right now for this
Raiders team.

Speaker 2 (40:33):
Go Raiders plus fourteen and a half New England.

Speaker 1 (40:37):
This was Jat's choice. The money's moving it in the
direction of the Patriots. It was three, it's now two
and a half. We can get it three and a
half in the contest, so we might want to lock
that in as well. We're bouncing on a Mike Vrabel,
but we're betting on a Mike Rabel bounce back here.
I know there's trends that say the Ravens are getting
a little bit better. And you could look at what

(40:59):
happened past weekend in a big win against the Bengals
and say Lamar Jackson started to look a little bit
more comfortable. Obviously, they've got to win out in order
to keep up with the Steelers and then beat the
Steelers in the final week of the season to.

Speaker 2 (41:11):
Make the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (41:12):
But and you can make all the cases about how
bad the quarterbacks have been that the Patriots have played,
and they just played an MVP candidate and blew up
a Blue or Blue a twenty one point lead. So
now they're going on the road to Baltimore tough spot

(41:32):
to play, but the money's moving the line in the
favor of the Patriots, and I think that's why we're
playing them.

Speaker 4 (41:43):
Yeah, And like you said, it's the only thing that's
scaries me about this spot is just our biased to
Lamar Jackson because it's there We've had what five six
years of him in this exact spot where he dominates,
and that's what makes him so special and unique, like he.

Speaker 3 (41:59):
Is an the quarterback.

Speaker 4 (42:00):
Like I talked about that McVay stad about being in December,
how dominant is Lamar is the same guy like Lamar
in his career weeks fifteen and sixteen sixteen and oh
straight up in his career, He's never lost in these
two weeks. So that just shows why he's been the
MVP multiple times and why you know, I love shitting
on the guy for his playoff letdowns because it's like this,

(42:20):
It's like, dude, how are you so dominant in one
of the toughest months and then just coy La eggs
come January. So the data I tried to dive into it,
finding some nuggets to give me some hope on this
Patriots team. It is hard because it's what we've talked about, Right,
it's a new young team.

Speaker 3 (42:37):
May has not been in this scenario.

Speaker 4 (42:38):
Right, He's not played legit playoff games, and that that
last game felt like the first legit playoff game. He
played great in the first half, totally in his own head.
No showed us in the second half. Right, he just
was totally out of rhythm, never got into a rhythm
that second half, and he got lucky. Trevion Henderson saved
kind of saved the day. Right, had a couple of
huge run that kept them in the game. But Drake
on third down. I don't know about you, but watch

(42:59):
that Bill's game. I wanted to be passing on third downs.
I was like, he's not going to complete these. This
kid is not ready for this moment. This is gonna
be ultimate test for him. And it really, to me,
it's not so much a bet on him, it's really
a bet on Vrabel, which we've been talking about all season.
Anytime I packed the Patriots team, it's like, is this
a variable spot? And you know Vrabel in this exact spot.
So coming off a really bad loss in his career, right,

(43:23):
this is just his career of Vrabel twenty four to
eighteen off a loss as a head coach of the
Patriots or the Titans, So it's a pretty impressive. This season,
he's two and oh straight up. I guess the spread
off a loss of this season. Obviously haven't lost much
of this season, but he tends to get his guys
ready to bounce back in this game.

Speaker 3 (43:37):
And you know.

Speaker 4 (43:38):
Lamar, like I gave you that stat, incredibly he's been
you know, he used to be dominant night games.

Speaker 3 (43:43):
He was incredible.

Speaker 4 (43:44):
I think before this season he's twenty and five in
night games coming to the season.

Speaker 3 (43:48):
This year, he's one to three straight up in night games.

Speaker 4 (43:50):
So, like we always talk about these, eventually these stats
start going the other way. And that's why I think
we're backing on here because I I don't see it.
I think the Patriots are honestly a better team, more
complete than this Ravens team. And the only thing for
me that gives me, Paul is the Ravens have the pedigree, right,
They've been there before, They've been in these spots. So
really love unique spot. Love this numbering. Yeah, hard Rock

(44:10):
has two and a half. Every other book is still
three for the Patriots. So, like Chad said, if you
can go get the Patriots.

Speaker 3 (44:15):
Now, I'm with you.

Speaker 4 (44:16):
I think the Pros come in back to Patriots and
bet the number down. So three is such a key number.
I want people to get it before it does move
to two and a half.

Speaker 2 (44:23):
All right, So what am I missing right now?

Speaker 3 (44:27):
You cowboys?

Speaker 2 (44:30):
Well the number moved and so you know.

Speaker 3 (44:33):
That scared that scared you off, that one point movement.

Speaker 2 (44:35):
I don't know. I guess so a little bit.

Speaker 4 (44:38):
I didn't have a right read on this one. I
just was gonna blindly bet this Charger's side. I just
felt like it's a Chargers kind of spot to back
them and the fact that they're a dog.

Speaker 3 (44:48):
People still aren't sure about Herbert his injury.

Speaker 4 (44:51):
I mean, people are talking about Herbert is if he
should be the MVP in a game where I think
he scored nineteen against the Eagles and sixteen against the Chiefs.
It's just we live in a very bizarre time. There's
never been dumber people speaking in the microphones. And that's
the damn truth.

Speaker 2 (45:04):
But yeah, it's like looking in the mirror, man.

Speaker 4 (45:07):
Yeah, seriously, though, I looked at this matchup and I
just want to find Okay, are there any at least
trends here that can maybe make me flip to this
Dak side, And there are some really good trends that
backup Dak. In nineteen games in his career when he's
on a homestead, which is back to back home games,
Dak in this exact spot, he's fifteen and four straight up,
eleven and eight against the spread his last fifteen games

(45:30):
in this exact spot, so back to back home instead,
he's thirteen and two straight up. So if you want
to be like Chad you are worried about the number, yeah,
the one and a half's if you can get it,
that obviously is way better in that type of scenario
because say the juice on the one and a half
is minus one twenty, you probably can just take the
money line from minus one thirty. And that's that's probably
where you want to be with Dak in this exact matchup, because,

(45:54):
like you said, the movement, maybe it does game because
this is a Charger's back door type of game. But
I don't know if the Chargers offense can keep up
with this Dallas offense. And that's that's my pause here.
It's like their defense needed what was it, five takeaways
against the Eagles to win that game where I think
the Eagles maybe put up sixteen on the flip side,
the Chiefs, you know, put up thirteen points and they

(46:15):
were dysfunctional, but they were moving the ball like there
are ways to move the ball against this Chargers team.
I think this might be the exact matchup for this
Cowboys team to get right. So since you know, twenty
twenty twenty two Dallas when they're on their homestend playing
against a team that is above five hundred DAK three
to zero in this exact spot, so you know, either

(46:38):
once again, I'm trying to find stuff to get off
this Cowboys team. But it just seems like all the
numbers the pros are right right. The pros came in,
have you on this one. I didn't really understand it.
This was the Charger side, but the under line numbers
back it up. And offensively, you know, I hate to
say they're they're more desperate team here, but the Chargers
got their big wins, right. That was emotional against the
Eagles and a huge emotional win against the charge Chiefs.

(47:00):
You expect them to look down spot. I guess a
Dallas team that just got embarrassed in a primetime game,
so this feels like another pros versus Joe's pros all
over the Cowboys team in the public, they will be
hammering this Chargers team. So yeah, I'm with you, chat
come to the other side of this Cowboys team. I'll
give you full credit because I just did not see it.
I think even you might have even mentioned Sunday night.
I totally missed this one and I'm chasing the number now.

Speaker 2 (47:23):
All right, well, I'll put it on the list.

Speaker 1 (47:24):
The last one that I forgot to mention that likes
still interesting to me is Arizona as a two and
a half point dog at Atlanta. Didn't come up in
sharp calls like I like it, basically because of the
number in the spot. I don't want to bet Atlanta
as a road favorite. But are we blind to our

(47:46):
love for Jacoby Brissett because we thought he was the
better quarterback for this offense in limited opportunities before he
got the job, and then he did, and we bet
into him and we want a couple times, but then
we got killed a couple times. Where do we stand
right now on this? I still lean Arizona. It's going

(48:07):
to be two and a half all the way across
the board. I'd almost rather bet him on the money
line and just take a flyer.

Speaker 4 (48:14):
Yeah, it's another game where I honestly didn't have a
penny on it because I was waiting to see where
the number is going to go. And it did go up,
like you can't get the three now in Arizona if
you want to get it. And I did take a
position once it did get to the three, and I'll
hit you with all the numbers. We knew all the
numbers are gonna be terrible on this Falcons team, right,
especially after a win the Falcons.

Speaker 3 (48:32):
All right, let's get into it. So after a straight up.

Speaker 4 (48:35):
Win Since twenty n eighteen, they are eleven twenty four
and one against the spread after a win, including one
in three against the spread this season. All right, what's
Kirk Cousins after a win? Kirk Cousins in his career? Again,
think about how good Kirk used to be. Now he's
washed up in kind of terrible. He was thirty three
forty six against the spread in his career, So he's
not good after straight up wins either, not even even

(48:57):
Alanta's terrible. Kirk Cousins just as bad every other underling
number Chad. This Arizona team is atrocious. There is nothing
I can give to you try to sell you on
this team.

Speaker 3 (49:07):
Really.

Speaker 4 (49:08):
Their defensive numbers horrible, their pass rush terrible. So if
Kirk should be able to pick this defense apart, our
only hope is you know, Jacoby Brisset against bad defenses,
hasn't pushed in the ball downfield. He's actually not that
good though, Like a lot of his numbers are just
straight junk time numbers. So i have other games I
want to talk about, so I'm happy to avoid this one.
But I'm glad you're not strongly like, hey, we need

(49:29):
to hammer this Arizona one, because I would ad to
support you because I am on Arizona. But my god,
if we can avoid this one like Tennessee, I'm happy now.

Speaker 1 (49:35):
I feel like we got some games that we feel
pretty good about. But if I'm missing something, tell me what.

Speaker 4 (49:42):
Yeah, I'm shocked just a couple of games that you skipped.
I'm shocked you skip the Carolina Panther game. You're waivering
on that one a little bit, a little bit. Yeah, Oh,
it is three and a half in the contest, right,
and I'm once again I am shocked the public and
the professionals, I like, have come in and so heavy
on this Tampa team where I mean I joked about it,

(50:04):
but like the Panthers got they got screwed last week,
I mean they got bamboozled like that hit on Shuck
the clock should have ran out, that should been an
overtime game where the Panthers, yes, they did blow that game,
but they're being priced as if they just they got
straight up beat or dominated by that Saints team. And
I feel like it's gone too far where the Panthers
have been good to us this season, like we've been

(50:25):
backing them in certain spots and fade them and others,
and of course this is the exact spot where.

Speaker 3 (50:30):
We're supposed to back this Panthers.

Speaker 4 (50:31):
And that's why I'm just shocked them and brought up
where they lost last week this season Panthers after a loss,
they are six to no against the spread this season.
So it's like we've seen it time and time again.
The public fades them, the number moves too much and
they become a value and you just said it three
and a half in the contest, that's a value. This

(50:51):
Bucks team. They are better, no doubt they haven't worked
complete offense. Even when everything was rolling this season, it
was always Baker coming from behind and them covering, you know,
a couple points right. And I was really shocked to
see this number again another every Amrasonmer just an amazing
number here. Since Week seven, Baker, He's thirty six of

(51:13):
thirty eight quarterbacks in the NFL of EPA per play.

Speaker 1 (51:18):
Look, we know struggling. He's been struggling, and the offense
has been struggling. We're trying to reconcile. Is the offense
going to be better now that everybody is back? Obviously
he didn't have anybody in that window other than a
Mecca Buca. Now he's got Bucky Driving back, he's got
Mike Evans back, he's got Chris Godwin back. The offensive
line is getting healthier, but they still haven't looked very good.

(51:40):
But it was the defense that blew that game against
the Falcons. Mostly Baker did throw a bad pick, but
it was a defense that blew that game. Flip Side Panthers,
Bryce Young best quarterback in terms of wins, comeback, wins
in the fourth quarter and overtime twenty twenty three eleven

(52:01):
comeback wins, so now he's an underdog, and you know
that's how they like to play.

Speaker 2 (52:06):
We talked about this on Tuesday. I love Bryce in this.

Speaker 1 (52:08):
Spot, but I saw all the professional money coming in
on the box and it just sort of scared me
off my spot.

Speaker 4 (52:20):
And the pros I talk do not and I'm calling
lazy pros, but they are some of the pros I
talk to. They said, simply play. They don't even look
at any type of research. They're simply playing in certain spots.
And this one here is they just don't think the
books can keep not covering. Right, it's a lazy bet.
But it's six straight weeks that books have not covered.
It would be if they don't cover here, it would

(52:40):
be their longest non covering streak since nineteen eighty two.
So I guess these guys are just betting on straight
up on the better team and the laws of averages.
But I think the Bucks are who they are, right,
and I think they're not reacting too much to it
of They are a good team, but they don't have
the defense to really roll and blow out teams. Let
alone be a three three and a half now in
our contest and favorite on the Road individual game here,

(53:02):
So you know, I get it. This this game obviously
means much more to this Panthers team because the Bucks
basically they can lose this game, but if they win
their next two, they still win the division regardless of
what the Panthers do here. So it's a unique spot.
And I just have one more game I want to
talk about it. We didn't, sorry, man, Mito, it's that
Lion's Pittsburgh game.

Speaker 3 (53:22):
What the hell are we doing with this game? Chat?
I am so flatted by this game?

Speaker 2 (53:26):
Well, big, look, it feels like the classic Steelers spot.
We should be backing the Steelers.

Speaker 1 (53:32):
The Lions do not deserve to be six and a
half seven point favorites in this game. It doesn't make
any sense. They're not good enough to be doing that.
It feels like a line from two years ago or
last year. Yeah, but is there so much hype now
on the Steelers that all of a sudden becomes the

(53:54):
public side because of what they've done, because they've continued
to win, because now they are leading the division, because
everyone is starting to get excited about Aaron Rodgers. Like,
I'm just sort of like you want to bet the
Mike Tomlin and raw Ross Spot all of that stuff.
I don't feel the need to put them in the
contest because I feel like we got a lot of
other options like Carolina, Dallas, New England, Las Vegas, the Jags, Buffalo,

(54:21):
the Giants, Like, we got a lot of games that
we feel better about.

Speaker 2 (54:27):
So talk me into putting Pittsburgh on the list.

Speaker 3 (54:31):
That's why I didn't want a blind side. I flipped.
I am on the lines. I told you I wanted
to be.

Speaker 4 (54:35):
On Pittsburgh, and I was just like, maybe I'm overreacting
too much what you just said. I'm giving too much credit,
probably to Aaron Rodgers, and this is going to be
a track meet.

Speaker 3 (54:45):
This is going to be a track me. We know
this Pittsburgh defense is suspect.

Speaker 4 (54:48):
They are not that good, let alone indoors like this
is a bad spot to back them. And I was like, Okay,
I'm missing this because I really wanted to be on Pittsburgh.
And you know, even then, even look at the Tomlin numbers,
him as a big dog actually pretty terrible, Like you
don't want to be backing Tomlin as a big underdog
in his career, as a seven plus point dog in his

(55:09):
career Tomlin three and fifteen straight up, seven and ten
against the spread, so he's actually struggling this exact spot.

Speaker 3 (55:16):
The big one that jumped out to me.

Speaker 4 (55:17):
I know, I already said that a lot of these,
you know, Dan Campbell and Jared gofstats are Ben Johnson's stats.
This one, to me is the biggest Ben Johnson stat
that I could find from their previous history together. I
told Drift thought we were dead in that Rams game
for a good reason, because I knew there was something
insane about that. The Lions just don't seem to blow
those type of games. The Lions had not blown a

(55:40):
ten point lead in almost three years, so in those
three years, in that exact spot when they were leading
by ten plus point, ten plus points, they were twenty
one and oh straight up their only loss.

Speaker 3 (55:53):
You will remember this one.

Speaker 4 (55:54):
Well, NFC title game, Yes, I guess the forty nine
ers in the playoffs, and I was like, man, I
remember that like that. You know, they took out Montgomery,
put gibbson, and Gibbs had a bad fumble and bang bang,
I think two touchdowns in a row by the four
nine ers.

Speaker 3 (56:07):
That game is totally flipped.

Speaker 4 (56:08):
So you know, it's historically a unique spot to back
Dan Campbell, Like we've talked about it. Off a straight
up loss, Dan Campbell and Jared Golf twenty three and
nine against the spread, even more insane since twenty twenty
two in this exact spot, they are fourteen to one
against the spread.

Speaker 3 (56:25):
And you know, I.

Speaker 4 (56:27):
Look all the time, it's like, Okay, well, how's Dan
Campbell been as a head coach when they blow a
seven point lead? Like that's that's a lot to ask
your team that bounce back from He is nine to
five straight up, eleven.

Speaker 3 (56:36):
To three against the spread in this exact spot. So
I just want you to be on it.

Speaker 4 (56:40):
It's six and a half right now in our contest,
I bet the six and a half in the Lions team.

Speaker 3 (56:45):
I thought the number should be four, four and a half.

Speaker 4 (56:46):
That's why Model thinks as well, and I think both
of us are overacting that this Lion's team they're not
as bad as I'm perceiving them to be. Like they
actually are a really good, high powered offense. I think
they're number one and number two in total yards this season.
Even with Dan Campbell taking our off, it's been the
defense that's held them back all season. So to me,
matchup wise, as good as Rogers looked in that last game,

(57:07):
I think there are ways for this team to attack them,
especially a defense are front to give the Rogers some
problems where Miami they have no real pass rush, and
we talked Miami is bad as Miami is defensively coming
to the year that was like the worst secondary in
all football. And as much injuries as this Detroit team
has had, they still they play hard for Campbell, They
hit hard. They know that they're just gonna run tons

(57:27):
of zones here, and that's you know what you expect
Rodgers be able to pick apart, but we've seen it
Rodgers these last week. He's been pushing the well downfield.
He's actually struggled against certain type of zones this season.
So to me, this feels like it's gonna be a
game that it's gona be a lot of points. And
I don't see the Steels keeping up with the chat.
So I just wanted to bring it up just in
case I don't blind that you come Sunday from my
love with the Sime game.

Speaker 2 (57:47):
It's on the list. It's on the list. We've added
it to the list.

Speaker 1 (57:50):
Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor,
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(58:11):
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(58:33):
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Speaker 2 (58:46):
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(59:11):
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Speaker 2 (59:40):
All Right, yeah, buddy, biggest bets.

Speaker 3 (59:45):
Pull up those pants and be your man.

Speaker 4 (59:48):
Biggest bets Honestly, because I went so hard last week,
I having gone too crazy this week.

Speaker 3 (59:55):
Work right now.

Speaker 4 (59:56):
My biggest early position is just because are you know,
Saturday games is Washington and the Packers, I mean not Packers,
the Bears. I could get bigger on the Rams tonight,
but I just like I said, I've been a little
Lukewarman that I'm just maybe I'm too close to it
for the Sunday games. My bigger positions so far. Again,
this was early in the week. I met it with
the other Patriots. I just couldn't stop grabbing the plus three.

(01:00:20):
Same with the Giants grabbing the plus three for favorites.
You know, I think I'm gonna get there on Buffalo.

Speaker 3 (01:00:26):
We'll see.

Speaker 4 (01:00:26):
Right now, I'm not too heavily invested into it, but
the more I look at that Buffalo and more, it
feels like that's the type of game they just roll
thirty to seven or something like that, so I.

Speaker 3 (01:00:34):
Could get there on it.

Speaker 4 (01:00:35):
But yeah, this week obviously nowhere near as big as
last week, but definitely took them some strong positions.

Speaker 2 (01:00:42):
My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mo.

Speaker 1 (01:00:46):
Dog, money Line, Underdog, Parlay Tennessee.

Speaker 2 (01:00:52):
Yeah, throw it in Arizona, Arizona.

Speaker 3 (01:00:55):
Okay, Yeah, I'll do it.

Speaker 2 (01:00:56):
New York Giants, New England, New England, and.

Speaker 4 (01:01:03):
Uh gotta put gotta put my jags in there. The Jazz,
Oh my god, santsra up to five and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:01:10):
Now, Jesus Christ Favorites, Parlay, Saints, Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:01:18):
Lions, Cincy. People might not hear, but I do love bears.
If we don't do bears, though we could do uh ruffalo, yeah,
take do uh do adjusted don't don't do the five
and a half five and a half.

Speaker 3 (01:01:33):
Yeah, I'll do the Bears Bears.

Speaker 4 (01:01:38):
And then people don't hear this, and they missed that
Bears one throw in Dallas, Dallas. That's a really nice
unique spot for them to when that came out, right,
I gave you all those numbers.

Speaker 2 (01:01:45):
Wow, you come around long way on that one.

Speaker 3 (01:01:47):
All right. Bullying does does work on certain people.

Speaker 2 (01:01:52):
All right, sharp versus square? Who do we got?

Speaker 1 (01:01:58):
Who?

Speaker 3 (01:01:59):
Sure? Square, I'll do it.

Speaker 4 (01:02:05):
I'll go super square, give me, give me the bills
minus ten.

Speaker 3 (01:02:09):
Wow, I know, I just know somehow, I man, I
end up beend a ton of money to that line.

Speaker 4 (01:02:14):
I just as soon as I saw that that gal
that uh Josh Allenstad against good defense, It's like, my god,
he just rolls these type of teams.

Speaker 3 (01:02:21):
All right.

Speaker 2 (01:02:22):
So the Brest balls was Washington.

Speaker 3 (01:02:29):
Come on, you gotta do Tennessee.

Speaker 2 (01:02:30):
I wish I was.

Speaker 1 (01:02:31):
Just gonna say I'm taking Tennessee. I'm taking the Titans.

Speaker 3 (01:02:35):
Are you really?

Speaker 2 (01:02:36):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:02:37):
Oh my god, I am.

Speaker 2 (01:02:40):
I am all right.

Speaker 1 (01:02:42):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.
We will be back on Sharper Square Sunday morning on YouTube.
You can eastdrop on a very intimate conversation. We're gonna
make human decisions and it's going to be miserable. We
will be back later that day at seven thirty ish
Sunday night, Sharper Square on YouTube. Watch or listen Sharper

(01:03:03):
Square on YouTube. Like the video, subscribe to the channel,
Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods,
rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.
Feedback is a gift until next time.

Speaker 2 (01:03:16):
I love you.

Speaker 3 (01:03:18):
Hey, hey baby, We're gonna be all day. We're gonna
be all day. I like that drying of potty.

Speaker 2 (01:03:26):
I like that kind of potty.

Speaker 4 (01:03:28):
B

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Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL WEEK 16 BETS: Bills-Browns, Chargers-Cowboys, Bucs-Panthers, 49ers-Colts, Patriots-Ravens and more

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