Sharp or Square - NFL Week 17 Bets: Lions-Vikings, Broncos-Chiefs, Texans-Chargers, Ravens-Packers, Eagles-Bills and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by a hard rock bet.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. It's just
the show that makes the squares Sharper, It makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am
joined as always, buy my IDF Mike Companion, my padre
Mike co host professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Chad.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
How are we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:27):
Listen? We're professionals. We're going to get through this week.
But I'm dragging. I'm not gonna lie to you. People
might hear it in my voice. Something's going on. All
I know is both of my kids came home from college.
Both of my kids are hacking up along. Both my
kids act like it's just gonna go away, And within

(00:52):
forty eight hours of them being home, I got something.
I don't like it. I don't like it one bit.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
Hey, at least you got the Patriots, right, Chad? And
that that's all that matters the end of the day.

Speaker 1 (01:04):
Oh I did, didn't I did?

Speaker 2 (01:07):
Yeah? That was much needed, Thank God. Not gonna lie.
They got us in that first half. Roun I'm like,
oh no, this is that bad Patriots game. But we
had the QB luck go our way. Brother. We we
didn't have the injured QB and Drake May I think
he's back up to like plus one fifty plus one
twenty MVP play a game, you know what.

Speaker 1 (01:26):
I was so not sweating it. After we did the
show on Sunday night, I went downstairs, I'm like, you
know what, the kids are home. I'm going to see
what they're doing if anyone will hang out with me.
So I played gin with my older son and I
didn't even like, I didn't even watch the game. Kicked

(01:50):
his ass by the way. He won the first couple
of games, and then I came back miraculous recovery. He
always loves when I talked trash h. I say that kiddingly.
He gets annoyed. And then it went to bed, like
I had a full eighty five year old.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
Look harball. So that's how we won that game.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
I had a full eighty five year olds. Evening on
Sunday night played jin, went to bed, woke up and
the Patriots had won and we were three and two,
and our favorite picks from Sunday morning, I think on
the year right now, we won with the Patriots, we
won with the Panthers we won with the Jags, lost

(02:27):
with the Lions and Bills. For the year forty five
and thirty five through sixteen weeks, another three and two
week in our Sharper Square Pick Them contest. This is
our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate.
If you want our final Sunday picks, you got to
watch the Sunday Morning show Sharper Square on YouTube. Don't

(02:50):
forget get all the shows Sharper Square YouTube. Go subscribeing
like the video downloads from Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you
get your pods. Simon, we got a whole crap load
of shitty backup quarterback Christmas Day games.

Speaker 2 (03:06):
Ramon Opresk warm control.

Speaker 1 (03:15):
Him, I forgive HER's about to look for. That's what
the NFL's given us this year. Three games on Christmas,
starting with Dallas at Washington. Washington's a six and a
half point underdog. We're getting Josh Johnson starting for the
Washington Commanders, and this line has moved from four and

(03:39):
a half to six and a half. The Cowboys are
out of the playoffs. Jerry Jones called this season a disappointment. Simon.
You shame them on Sunday is there a number that
could get us to bet Josh Johnson starting for the Commanders,
and is six and a half.

Speaker 2 (03:57):
It No, that feels like it's still a Cowboys number,
doesn't it too? I don't know. I feel like they
gotta keep going up. This is gonna be like you
said Christmas morning, everyone's gonna be hammering this Cowboys team.
They're gonna be in every parlayer teasers. So if you
can get a six and a half, I'd grab it.
I've grabbed the Cowboys numbers and Commanders to me come
back on the other side once it gets seven and

(04:17):
a half, like it needs to get way up there.
This is a quarterback that I thought was totally out
of the league, like just not good. Like it's this
is as bad as you get for Washington and they
really don't want to win. And you've seen that. It
feels like these last weeks on the flip side, the
Cowboys they just got outmanned by the Chargers. They were
trying hard in that game, they just could there was

(04:38):
nothing they could do. And you know, you always joke Dak.
This is the exact type of game Dak wins by
like twenty points. So you know, playing a bad team
NFC in a game, it doesn't matter. This is where
dak thrives. So pretty pretty wild stats here with this
Dallas team. If you just want to take a look
at the total, they are fourteen and one to the
first half over this season. Cowboys.

Speaker 1 (04:59):
Wow.

Speaker 2 (05:00):
So like their defense. I mean, me and Matt Mitchell
joked earlier in the year, there'll be so many times
that you have there under and I felt like twenty
one points were scored in the final two minutes of
the first half. Has happened multiple times, Like they score
a touchdown, they give up a long touchdown, they come
and score another one. So that's just an interesting stat.
It's really unique. I think it's like one of the
highest over teams ever in NFL history to the first half.

(05:22):
So I believe if they do hit this over the
next game, it will set a record for the NFL.
Like I couldn't find any other team that's ever had
fifteen overs in the first half, and it's just because
of the schedule, right, We've never had so that one
extra games really messed with a lot of these yeah
trends and stuff. So pretty sneaky stat there for Cowboys.

Speaker 1 (05:38):
I like that I like that a lot. Listen, I
got to be driving into the city on Thursday, so
this could be the game that I'm listening to, and
I wouldn't mind a little first half sweat while I'm
heading into the city, hopefully not sitting in traffic. Detroit
at Minnesota Minnesota plus six. JJ McCarthy not expected to

(06:00):
start after injuring his hand, so we're getting Max Brosmer instead.
Brosmer on Sunday replacing JJ McCarthy was better ish, I
guess in his first start. Don't forget he had four picks.
On Sunday, he was seven and nine and he led

(06:21):
a game winning field goal drive. Don't forget it was
a thirteen thirteen game. So in relief of McCarthy, I
don't know what to do with this Lions team, like
abject failure last week against the Steelers and what we
both believed was a smash spot and we went against
all of our instincts and didn't bet raw Rob Mike Tomlin.

(06:45):
This game, I'm going to see Marty Supreme.

Speaker 2 (06:49):
Well I got it bet at unfortunately, and I know
I'm just being bitter, and I should you are should
be all over the Detroit team but I don't know.
It's it's insane, like, are they really six points better
than Minnesota? Minnesota beat them last time he played, and
it wasn't like JJ played incredible, but he did enough.

(07:11):
So I don't know. It's a tough spot because now
it's their third stringer. It's just you know, it's not ideal, obviously, Chad.
You can hear in my voice, and I want to
do it, but it's stinks because I have all these
amazing stats about Detroit in this exact spot, and it's
like we talked about it, those might just simply be
Ben Johnson's stats because you know, golf and Campbell. When
they've lost to a previous team, they're facing them now
the second time. They're thirty three and fourteen against the

(07:33):
spread in this exact spot. So like they've dominated every
time in this spot, especially when they've already lost that team.
They're seven and three in their career together in the spot.
So stuff, it's tough. I will see it stinks is
our only show and it's we're Senior Tuesday. But I
know I'm supposed to take I know I'm supposed to

(07:54):
take Minnesota, but I'm really tempted to just take the
lines because it's just like I just you expect them
have a game where they win forty to fourteen, right,
You just expect their defense to do what they did
last week. Like I said, they played well until they
eventually broke in the second half, and their offense just
no shit. So it's like the old the old Lions team.
We'd be all over the spot chat. But I gotta
gotta say to myself, it's this ain't the old lines.

(08:16):
This is the new lines, and it's we have to
fade them here. This is too big. So you can
get six six and a half shop around. I think
that's the right number on Minnesota.

Speaker 1 (08:24):
Your lack of enthusiasm for this game is hate that.

Speaker 2 (08:30):
I have to bet it because it's the Christmas Gay Games,
but brutal. Yeah, it's just an awful game that I
just don't like either side. But I gotta take it soon.

Speaker 1 (08:39):
Take the game off, go to the movies. You want
to come up to the city, you can go to
the movies with me and Stacy and the boys and
my mother in law. It'll be awesome.

Speaker 2 (08:50):
Sounds like a nightmare to your boy. I'd much rather
watch some football and hang with the family.

Speaker 1 (08:56):
Listen. I forgot to tell everybody at the top of
the show, we don't have a show on Thursday this week.
We're doing our show on Friday. So our sort of
final look at the week and narrowing down will be
on Friday, and you'll get the full weekend to listen
to it.

Speaker 2 (09:11):
But we will not have to show a Boxing Day show.

Speaker 1 (09:15):
We're doing a boxing Day show. Heada boxing Day all right.
The final game on Christmas another third string quarterbacks dot me.
If you've heard this before, the worst team will be
playing the backup quarterback. Poor Gardner Minister didn't even make
it a half. In his mop of duty for Patrick Mahomes,

(09:39):
he tour his acl the likely starter, chris Ola de
cooni Ola to Coon, chris Ola to Coon. I believe
he went to South Florida, Samford and South Dakota State.
Here's a scenario right now. The Chiefs draft twelfth in

(10:03):
the twenty twenty six draft, and if they lose their
last two games and any number of teams ahead of
them who have five wins, the Saints or a combination
of five or six wins in the draft, the Saints,
the Dolphins, the Falcons, the Bengals. If they all win
out or some variety of wins and losses and the

(10:24):
Chiefs lose, they could jump into the top ten. Like
that is an astounding scenario for a team that is
going to get Patrick Mahomes back, that has not been
drafting in the top parts of the first round four years,
that has glaring holes and all of a sudden, if

(10:45):
they're getting let's say they're getting a top twelve at
the worst. I know the number is huge, it's thirteen,
but I'm trying to find not just the talent to
cover this number, but the incentive to cover this number.

Speaker 2 (11:00):
I can't wait to lose six figures on all these
three teams moneyline parlay favorites, Like how are these dogs?
Any of these dogs gonna win. It's just such an
ugly slate with these quarterbacks. Just a total nightmare for
the NFL. And I said every time, this is why
quarterbacks were so protected. It's just you have to protect
the merchandise, unique spot for Kansas City. Like I went

(11:22):
through all the numbers, so I got back to the
early nineteen eighties. They are seven to zero. Was a
home dog of above nine points. So this has happened
in the past. They've been down to this moment and
they've covered shockingly in this spot. And you know, I
jokingly texted Alex Smith's agent and I said, you know,
why not having come back for one to two games

(11:43):
after that Philip Rivers stuff, we've seen like now people
are all in on Philip Rivers and it was fun.
I'm not gonna lie like that felt. It was literally
back in two thousand and nine, both offenses scoring at will,
beating the two high safeties. It was really fun. But
unfortunately lost a ton of money on the Colts. That
was not fun. Yeah, this is a weird spot for
this Chiefs team. Like, you know, even going through all

(12:04):
the numbers, like seventh straight no covers, that's crazy. I
didn't even realize until Evan AMers pointed out they had
the exact same streak last year. They didn't cover in
seventh straight games last year. So their first team ever
Super Bowl air that back to back seasons with streaks
of seven straight not covers. So there's like people out

(12:25):
there that we joked out, there's pros who've been riding
this Chiefs team. They've been getting burned really bad this year.
There are some other people out there. They've just been
fain the Chiefs team, And my god, that was a
great read by them, because they have totally collapsed like
you did last week. You're all over it they I mean,
who knows of Minchi kept playing, but they really look
like they're going to give up eventually that defense. So
are we going to city or chat? Are we going
to take the Chiefs when we know we should? Is

(12:46):
this a team that's simply giving up facing a Denver
team off a bad loss that wants to come in
and just blow the doors off them. I mean, that's
gonna be the public view of it. The public's gonna
hammer Denver. And it's like again these weird Thursday Christmas games.
It's not like things giving. I don't have a ton
of data where it's like, no, simply bet the favorites
it's going to hit. But this, this game scares the
hell out of me. I just I'm gonna throw Denver

(13:08):
in a five and a half teas or something like
that if I have to take the number straight. I
gave you that trend, like, do you expect it's such
a big number? You expect the Chiefs to cover that
type of big of a number, so I'll Secondly, I'll
take the Chiefs suplus thirteen and a half.

Speaker 1 (13:20):
I do like the idea of a triple D Dallas, Detroit,
Denver money line parlay for the day. That seems like
a lot of fun. It seems like a great way
to walk out of the movie theater and see that
you've won all your bets for the day.

Speaker 2 (13:38):
Especially, I mean, it's if you lose it, my god,
It's it's like, how are you going to lose this one?
That's why I told you I'm gonna bet it. But
it's the sucker. It's the sucker Christmas Bet. It's everyone's
going to do it. So what can you do? Well?

Speaker 1 (13:51):
If you got to beut something? Bet on winners the
Saturday Games Houston at the Los Angeles Chargers. Haven't we
seen this movie before? The Chargers are two point favorites,
The Chargers and Justin Herbert are red hot. Then they
play the Texans stifling defense and implode. I'm talking about

(14:13):
the playoffs last year, and last year they had their
offensive line. I'm not buying the Chargers. I'm going with
the Texans. Chad's Choice presented by hard Rock Bet is
the Houston Texans. Are you sure you want to do this?

Speaker 2 (14:33):
Are you willing to make a choice? What choice? We
can't run from? Wi a shot up dues to just
see it, you know what I mean?

Speaker 1 (14:44):
I would just rather bet this defense as an underdog
then face Justin Herbert than take Justin Herbert as a favorite,
And especially after that win against the Cowboys, especially after
the Texans struggled against the Raiders in the exact spot
you're supposed to bet the Raiders. To me, this is
a great matchup for the Houston Texans. Love it?

Speaker 2 (15:08):
Yeah? Interesting spot. Like you said, I honestly wish I
could fade both teams, like I think both teams are
due for letdown games. And like you said, maybe that
was Houston's game last week, that Raiders game where you know,
their defense just was a little lazy, a little off tilt,
and they gave up some big plays they normally don't
give up. So I don't hate to read it's really
about fading Herbert in this spot. Right, We talked all

(15:28):
the time Herbert against winning teams. It just seems like
he struggles against him. So the last four years he's
nine and fifteen straight up against teams above five hundred,
so pretty terrible. Like luckily, you know, we could say
this is type of game where we which every team
was a dog. I honestly probably would have been on,
like if the Chargers were a home plus two dog

(15:48):
would have been on the same like you were saying
here with Texans, this feels like Texans should probably be
a slight favorite. I have a game and a pick,
so I'm with you, like the Texans here, it's a
good number, and shop around. There's some two and a
halfs out there, But I think Chad's right, this might
keep coming down. I've seen all the two and a
half starting to disappear. Just the twos.

Speaker 1 (16:05):
Yeah, I've seen twos. I see one two and a
half out there. I see it too, and then I
see a lot of one and a half. I did also,
by the way, I bet the Texans at two and
a half. I took a little piece of the money line.
Money line Melman, that's what they call me. Baltimore at
green Bay. Green Bay is at two and a half
point favorite. I don't get this one. Is Lamar playing,

(16:26):
is Jordan Love playing? Islik willis playing? Like the Packers
need to win to make the playoffs. Obviously the Ravens
do too. The Ravens situation is much more dire if
you talk to me about locker room feel. I don't
know if you saw the Kyle Hamilton press conference, but
him talking about the defense having the same issues they've

(16:49):
been having year after year after year the past few years.
It just feels like what we've heard and seen a
lot from the Ravens this year, which is something not
quite right. But there seems to be a lack of communication,
a lack of trust, a lack of chemistry between the
coaching staff and the players, and it's it's playing out

(17:11):
on the field. So I don't want to bit the Ravens,
but I really don't know who I'm betting on at
quarterback for the Packers right now.

Speaker 2 (17:22):
Yeah, a game like again, if you have to make
a pick for your pickball and post his picks in,
I guess I'll roll the dice and take the Packers
because it's like you said, it could be Jordan love
Warmleik where Lamar, that's real serious. He got basically said
he got need in the back, and he basically had
like back tightness and spasms and he couldn't go back

(17:42):
in the game. You know, this is a guy that
is taking a ton of hits over his career, and
he's not a big frame guy. And people worried a
little bit when he said he was losing a bunch
of weight, and it's like, well, don't you need a
little bit of that cushion. You're already a smaller guy,
and that just you know, he's been owt. The lineup
all season has just been a total loss. And you know,
the craziest that I saw, like which kaya Hamilton was
talking about, it's just how bad this Ravens defense has been.

(18:05):
And they're zero seven this season when they allowed twenty
points or more, which says a lot of other defensive
all full or offense. The only other teams that are
winless when they allow twenty points are more this season.
This is a horrible group to be in. It's Raiders, Brown,
and Giants. So that's the other teams are in the
same exact class of the Ravens. It's just in our
minds we keep hyping up this Ravens team because the past,

(18:26):
and we talked that's why we took the Patriots. We
knew it was very public it was probably not the
best spot, but it was like, Okay, this line is
being priced again, like this Ravens team is the team
of old. They were not three and a half points
better the Patriots team has been all season. I think
we all can agree on that. And you know, this
is another time where the Ravens have been horrible at home,

(18:47):
they've actually been shockingly better on the road. But like
you said, if it's no Lamar, I think the Packers
everything like coaching wise, everything they do, it just feels
like if it's Molik, they can scheme wise beat this
Ravens team. They really did have the Bears every which way.
It was just a total meltdown and you know, a
fluke like it, those things happen, you know, the back door,

(19:08):
the on side kick, all these random things need to
happen for the Bears to get that game and get
that cover where the Packers, you know, if they would
have won that game that they were supposed to, even
without knowing the quarterback was going to be, this is
probably going to be three and a half. So that's
why I just think the early value here is Packers
and this Rayvens team just feels like we've talked weeks ago,
there was all this druma I'd been hearing behind you know, backstories.

(19:32):
Even since then, it's just been negative, negative stuff, coaches
arguing with the sideline, with players. It's just been truly
a season from hell. And I told you horrball Chad.
You missed it. He basically took Derek Henry out of
the game, and he was dominating the game. And that's
why I think I was blowing the season for that team.

Speaker 1 (19:49):
I didn't I didn't see him personally because I was
playing Jan and then went read I forgot to tell
you I played Jan. Then I read a book, then
I took melatonin, and then I went to bed, and
then I woke up and I saw that the Patriots
had won. That's how I'm doing all prime time football
from now on. Any Like last night, I had the
I had the Colts didn't work out. I also had

(20:11):
a parlay on uh on Juwan Johnson uh and I
mean uh uh Jennings and Michael Pittman. This is how
out of it I I can't remember anyone's name, uh
uh anytime touchdown and Pittman over four receptions he landed

(20:31):
on four mm hmm but I didn't sweat it because
I woke up, I had a good night sleep, and
I saw it in the morning. I'm like, se La Vie,
motherfucker's onto the next give me the Texans and we're
going to rock and roll. That's how it is.

Speaker 2 (20:44):
You're lucky guy. I had to eat to cinnamon when
I was that upset. No, No, I'm kidding. Just ate
a ton of holiday cookies.

Speaker 1 (20:52):
Well, we got a lot of that going on, but
I I'm staying away. You know how I feel about
the sugar.

Speaker 2 (20:57):
You're know, a lot of people were upset about me.
I didn't inflammation was. And the simple answer people is
I've never eating a vegetable. Why would I know what
inflammation is? So there's your answer.

Speaker 1 (21:06):
Are you al Michaels?

Speaker 2 (21:08):
No, I don't know. Last week we were talking about
the pooka thing. I thought he said inflation, he said inflammation. No.

Speaker 1 (21:13):
What I'm saying is al Michaels has said he's never
eaten a vegetable.

Speaker 2 (21:17):
Is that true? No? Oh my god, that's another guy
that they got to take behind the beyond the shed,
old yeller.

Speaker 1 (21:23):
He's he's just a guy who eats steak and doesn't
eat vegetables and talks about betting on football. No, I
love that guy.

Speaker 2 (21:29):
Him not getting fired about that punt return just was haunting.

Speaker 1 (21:32):
In that Rams game Seattle at Carolina. Carolina is a
seven and a half point favorite. Look, you said something
on Sunday that shocked me, which was it's Carolina. It's
seven and a half. They're at home, underdogs. Of course

(21:54):
we want to take Carolina. And you're like, wait one second, Chad,
tell me what you're gonna say right.

Speaker 2 (22:03):
Now, Simon says, give me the Seattle Seahawks minus seven.

Speaker 1 (22:08):
I want to play a game, Simon says. Simon says,
presented by hard Rock bet the Seattle Seahawks. I am
I'm not stunned because you tease this a little bit.
I did try to find proof to sort of. I
didn't think you make the Simon says, but I knew
you were leaning this way just from the conversation on Sunday.

(22:30):
Over the past eight games, Panthers are one loss, one loss,
one loss. They're four and four. Right, it's not even
a road home pattern. They've lost games at home. They
have won games on the road. They have won games
at home. They have lost games on the road. I
need to hear the logic because outside of that pattern,
this has been a team that we love to bet

(22:53):
as underdogs. We love to bet him as underdogs when
you're getting the hook, which is what we've been getting
all week until about this morning. So tell me, tell
me everything.

Speaker 2 (23:05):
A lot of things jump out to this one. I
knew right away though this was going to be the
biggest public dog of the week. The public is going
to be all over this Bucks team, and it's it's
played out that way. We'll be interesting if this number
does go back up right now, Seahawks, do you have
a couple of guys injured and banged up on their defense,
so this number could keep coming down. I want to
grab it now just in case those guys do practice
and this gets cleared before Christmas. This could easily jump

(23:27):
back up to eight. It's not just a good a
good spot for the Seahawks team. Obviously, their defense travels
really well defensively, where you know. I can't say the
same for the Panthers. Their defense truly is up and down.
You really don't know what you're gonna get week to week.
Some weeks they can't stop the one they can't stop
the pass. It's it's a very updown team where Hucks
defense is much more consistent. This is really a Sam

(23:48):
Donald bit. This feels got Sam Donald absolute hammer spot
and you know Jackson Smith and Jig. But he saved
it last week, right, He really played well down the stretch,
but he was kind of misible for three quarters there.
He didn't really do much. And this is the type
of game where he does do his what he does
is one hundred and fifty yards, two touchdowns. And Sam
Donald's career, it's rare for him to be this big
of a favorite. We've seen it change though these last

(24:10):
two seasons with him the Vikings. Right, I think some posts,
some stat I think he has the most wins as
a quarterback these last two seasons in the NFL, which
is pretty bizarre when you think of Sam Donald. But
twelve times his career he has been a starter as
a favorite of six points or more. He's twelve and
zh straight up, nine and three against the spreadent exact spot,
so tends to do really well. Is a big favorite.
And you know we've seen it time and time again.

(24:33):
This Panthers team, like I said, they do have weird
letdown spots. You know, I've given out the Mike McDonald's stats,
but I'll give it out again. It's early career, but
it's I told you, I just I've learned my lesson.
You got to back this man on the road. He
is ten and four against the spread. That is six
and two and one against the spread when he goes

(24:53):
to the East Coast. He's just always gets his teams up.
They play up to the moment, and especially you know
this game is you know, not that it doesn't matter
to Carolina. I do think this is gonna mean a
lot more to Shatto. With Carolina, they might be looking
ahead to next week in that Bucks team. So I
like this about a lot for shadows. You can tell
and we'll see if I'm gonna see what the pros

(25:15):
are saying. Obviously we up this upcoming week. But I
do feel like this is me at pros verstows the
public will be all over the Panthers and the professionals
will take the Seahawks.

Speaker 1 (25:24):
I kind of like the idea of this.

Speaker 2 (25:27):
Yeah, it's it's a it's a hard it's a very
hard Zach like I honestly, I knew right away I mean,
we're gonna love that number of the Panthers, but I
was like, no, they're trying to get me in Chad,
but we know we know what to do here, so
they can't get us. I hope you come to my side.
It's it's if you really have to dive into a
lot of the trends to to see what you see
with the Sea Ox team. They're just a great road team.
And Sam Donald's great is a big favorite, which is

(25:48):
something I never thought I would say. It's just when
I think of Seattle, I think a dominant home team,
but they're much better on the road.

Speaker 1 (25:53):
I mean, they can't get us. You and I we're
too smart for them. We know they got me last night.

Speaker 2 (25:58):
I'm not gonna lie that colds. That opening drive touchdown
by Philip Rivers. I was going, hey, I'm running, not
running up and down the line in the book. But
I was just like, oh, greaty read by the boys,
because I, again I did not see it. I was like,
why am I betting all this money on this forty
year old quarterback? But it wasn't his fault. My man
was slinging.

Speaker 1 (26:16):
Forty four And by the way, I didn't just bet
the Colts. I bet the Colts on the money line.

Speaker 2 (26:23):
Yeah, me too.

Speaker 1 (26:24):
So for like when it was fourteen fourteen, I'm like,
what is going on here? They're both going to score
fifty points. It's going to go back and forth. And
then the Colts just couldn't stop anybody, and I got embarrassing.
But look, Jacksonville was visiting the Indianapolis Colts. The Indianapolis
Colts are six and a half point home underdogs, second

(26:47):
week in a row. We both bet the Colts on
Monday night, and you know what, I have no regrets.
Like it was really fun for a while. Good for
brock Purty, Good for the Niners. They've got, I think,
the second chance to get the number one seed in
the NFC right now. I love it because I got
a shitload of Super Bowl futures tied to the Niners.

(27:09):
But I will say this, and don't hate me. It's
time to bet the Colts again.

Speaker 2 (27:17):
I know, I said, I think I took a little bit.
Sunny night, I said, I know we're gonna have supposed
to bet the Colts because it's just we expect such
a letdown from this Jaguars team. And yes, you know, yes,
watching that game last night, though, it's like, oh my god,
is this not going to be just Trevor Laurence thrown
against air. There's no they have no secondary. There's no secondary.

(27:38):
And the Colts and like the fact that they give
up two first round picks for Sauce, Like I know,
I'm not trying to kick them other down, but my god,
Colts organization just just so brutal. You try to go
for it and it just falls on your face.

Speaker 1 (27:50):
I don't blame them, but like there is I don't, but.

Speaker 2 (27:53):
I'm just saying like they might have set themselves back
two three years because they believe in Daniel Jones and
it just all fell apart. It's just it just sucks.
As a football fan, I feel bad.

Speaker 1 (28:01):
For him, but I do too, Like there's executive ineptitude.
I don't think this was it like as someone who's
been a manager, not to compare it to being like
an NFL executive, but still, like you work in media management,
sometimes you're gonna have to spend a lot of money
on people and go for big swings and sometimes they
work and sometimes they don't, And don't I don't begrudge

(28:25):
him making that trade, going all in trying to get
an elite defensive stopper who can shut down half the
field for you when you're in a division that has Jacksonville,
or in a division with Jacksonville, in a conference with
Patrick Mahomes, in a conference with Josh Allen, in a
conference with Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, like, it was

(28:46):
the exact right positive ev move. Take a shot. You
never know when you're gonna get another chance again. None
of it is is the GM's fault. I feel terrible
for the guy you're an.

Speaker 2 (28:58):
I'm the other way. I think even in the moment
I said that was a dumb trade, dumb move like
Sauce is not worth two First, he's not a shutdown
half the field type of corner. He's been lackluster since
he got all that money. He cares more about streaming
and was playing football. And that was just that's why
it's totally scared when you have these gms that are
playing for their jobs, Like this is a guy that
has just had a ton of swing and missus. He

(29:20):
hit o Sandino Jones and he was going for one
more and he just totally missed. So you're you're a
very nice job. But I am just the other way.
I'm like, dude, you blew it. And that was a horrible,
horrible trade. So they were never that good. We knew
it was a lot of smoke screens and they've just
totally created once whatever happened with Taylor, to me, that
was the difference. Taylor just he was unstoppable for the

(29:40):
first eight weeks. Jonathan Taylor and whatever the NFL has
done the adjustments, maybe part of that is Daniel Jones,
but they stopped him. That's totally stopped this Colts team.
But just a trends for this game chat are horrible
the Jags. We hammered the Jags the first time totally.
I'll give him out because people just forget I love
giving out these stats because they played twice a year
since twenty fifteen, Indy three seventeen and one against the

(30:02):
spread against this Jaguars team. Philip Rivers himself, he is
zero to two against the spread in the spot for
this Colts team Indy at home two seven and one
against this Jaguars teamsince twenty fifteen. It's just disastrous and
like shockingly, you know, Trevor Lawrence against his divisional opponents.
He's actually pretty good in his career. Seven to five

(30:23):
against the spread. You know, it's probably the biggest in
my mind, this is the biggest number I can remember
Trevor Lawrence ever being on the road in his division.
So I went back and looked. He was minus six
against the Titans this season. If you remember that game,
he won twenty five to three. So I guess it's warranted.
Because this number jumped out to me. I couldn't believe

(30:43):
how big it was. It's like, yes, is the divisional game.
I'm shocked, it's big. They're begging me to take the Colts.
So they got Chad. That can see they got Chad.
I can't do it. That defense is just so bad.
So I want to bet the Colts. That was the
funnest ride ever. Like you said, that first quarter, it
was alas it was. So I think I'm supposed to
bet the Jaguars here. I'll take all my pick pulls,

(31:06):
but I feel dirty. But maybe I'll bet the Colts
money line or something to make me feel not totally gross.
But I just think anything under seven feels like it's
a Jags number. They're good, Like again, I gotta give
them this Jacks team.

Speaker 1 (31:18):
Is totally good.

Speaker 2 (31:19):
They're really legit. Like I just I'm underestimated. My model
is as well. Even last week, like my mouth didn't
love them. I was just like, no, this is a
Jag spot. And yeah, this like Chad saying here, this
is the opposite of a Jack spot. This is a
total fade bet the Colts, and I just can't get there.
It's yeah, defense is so bad.

Speaker 1 (31:37):
When a defense looks this bad in prime time, going
against a team that just opened the eyes of every
NFL fan who was suspect of the Jags, this is
the spot. The only express to me, the only express
to me is that it hasn't gotten to seven, like,
and I think it will. I think the public will
come in on the Jags at some point this week.

(31:59):
And clearly hasn't been any resistance from the wise guys
because it hasn't moved off to six and a half.
So I think everyone's waiting for this to get to seven.

Speaker 2 (32:08):
Yeah, and like again, I have so many stupid trends
for Trevor Lawrence too, off wins like eleven and four
against the spread, off a win of ten points or
more in his career twenty and thirteen ats off a
win in his career. Like I know, he hasn't done
a lot of winning, but he just he tends. Like
I said last week, that's another reason we wanted to
take him. It's like, this guy keeps winning. It's whatever

(32:29):
it is. He has that type of momentum. It's it's crazy.
It's Jackson. I can't believe how I bought and I
am on them. I don't know if they peaked too early,
but I do think they're going to be a real
problem for a lot of these teams in the playoffs.
It's a really fun team.

Speaker 1 (32:41):
I do love Liam khaneh.

Speaker 2 (32:43):
Yeah, Like I just love their scheme so much.

Speaker 1 (32:45):
We love Liam Khane all season. So all right, well
this will be one we got to revisit. We got
to see what the wise guys say in sharp calls.
Let's get a word and listen to what our friends
at hard Red Bet have to say. I want to
know where I bet on sports during the holiday season.
That's right, it's hard Rock Bet, not just because it's
the presenting sponsor of our show, but because they make

(33:07):
it easy to bet both pregame and live and just
a few simple taps. I open the app, find a
bet I like, and then bam, my bet is placed,
just in time for me to get back to wrapping
presence and enjoying my favorite Christmas movie. Sign up today
and bet five dollars on any game. If it wins,

(33:29):
you also score one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
A winning bet plus an extra one hundred and fifty
dollars to bet with. Now that's spreading holiday cheer. Plus.
Hard Rock Bet fills your stockings with new promos daily,
so whenever you're listening, just open the app and check
out what you've got. Any day of the week. Download

(33:51):
the hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today,
payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer offered by
the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida offered by Seminal
hard Rock Digital LC and all other states, must be
twenty one or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia to play. Terms and

(34:13):
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight
three three playwise In Indiana if you were something you
know as a gambling problem and wants help. Call one
eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Simon, Yeah, buddy,

(34:33):
it's good to see you. Your New Orleans said, are
visiting the Tennessee Titans. The number was three. I bet
the Titans at plus three. It is now two and
a half at hard Rock Bet. The Titans have been
on an ats heater the past five weeks, as have
the Saints. Titans are three and two. Both of these

(34:56):
offenses generally ranked near the bottom in every category. On defense,
the Saints are much better, even top ten in yards
per play, which we like a lot. But the one
weakness in their defense is their rush defense. And the
one strength for the Titans during this run, especially in
two of the past three games which they won outright,
has been Tony Pollard one sixty two on the ground,

(35:19):
one oh four on the ground, one oh two on
the ground. That's the one weakness for this New Orleans
Saints team. I know you want to tell me we
got it back. The Saints here I've already bet the Titans.
I don't see why we're not going to continue to
back the team that we used to not be able

(35:39):
to figure out, and now it's very clear this team
is a covering juggernaut. Mike McCoy probably is the coach
of the year in the second half of the years.

Speaker 2 (35:53):
That's a bit much. And they are five and three
against the spread, like you've said, since they fired the
head coach. You know, they won two outright what these
last three weeks, so you know they have turned stuff around.
You got to get props to the coaching staff and
Cam Warden and he's been playing really well. You're you're
spot on this one. The pros, they're all over the Titans.
This is gonna be another pros Ris Jos Public is
gonna be hammering the Saints team. And yeah, it's tough

(36:16):
tough for me, especially because I'm all in on Shuck.
Like I have so many random future bets on it,
like on all different books. I found one that you'll love.
Maybe I'll post it to Twitter because it is so hilarious.
I think it's like, I bet twenty bucks it's on Shuck.
Rookie of the Year Ben Johnson Coach of the Year
and Miles Garrett to win the Defensive Player of the Year.

(36:38):
I think it's twenty bucks to win, like thirty four
thousand dollars. No, yeah, I'll post it on Twitter or something.
It's insane, insane bet So now I'm like, really room
for Ben Johnson good coach of the year and obviously
shuck to hit this, but yeah, it's it's a bad spot.
Like you just said, this is say not. This is
not where you want to be back in the Saints team,

(36:58):
and I wish I was within the Titans. Early read
on the plus three that was definitely the number to
get because this the pros. There's gonna be a lot
of resists to buy, I think by the Pros getting
back up to three. So I'll be interest see where
this number ends up. But yeah, if you want to
join Chad to the professionals, you can bet the two
and a half. I am banned banned from betting Tennessee
Titan games, so I'm not gonna not gonna give out

(37:21):
a side, but if I was going to, I'd be
joining Chad on Tennessee. That's the ship.

Speaker 1 (37:25):
You are a band from betting Tennessee Titans games. I
am too, but I don't care about bands. I drive
right through the bands. I'm not kind of renegade. Who
is the odds on favorite to win Coach of the
Year right now? I'm looking for the odds and.

Speaker 2 (37:41):
Is uh plus one hundred?

Speaker 1 (37:43):
Yeah? Able? Yeah, it's a tough one.

Speaker 2 (37:48):
I'll send uh, I'll send a picture that that to
you and Matt Mitchell in text right now because it
is hilarious. It's twenty books to win thirty four thousand.

Speaker 1 (37:56):
That's crazy, that's crazy.

Speaker 2 (37:59):
And the shuck was two one and now he is
three to one or four to one.

Speaker 1 (38:03):
Yeah, that's that is nuts. That is totally nuts. Is he?
That is he that low right now? Jesus?

Speaker 2 (38:09):
Yeah, it's just the hype train. It's like peeking. Oh
my god.

Speaker 1 (38:13):
Yeah, tedor Roll McMillan is three to one. Tyler Shock
is four to one. Jesus, that's insane.

Speaker 2 (38:20):
Yeah, so you never know. I'm a big Ben Johnson
shuck fan right now. That'd be an all timer if that.

Speaker 1 (38:27):
Hits Arizona Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a seven point favorite.

Speaker 2 (38:31):
No interest, no, lean, no, I think we're supposed to
keep taking Cincy and like you said, it's every week.
We've been getting good numbers on Arizona. Every week they
just totally lay eggs. So yeah, this could be the week, right,
this is a good match for them, Like they should
be able to move the ball, but Cincinnati in games

(38:54):
where they show up and play out and Joe Brow
play as well. I think their defense is improved all season.
I think their offensive line improved all season, and you know,
Joe obviously just came back a little bit too late.
Like they're just one of those rare teams that their
whole season's over. But they feel like you know, obviously
they laid anag against Baltimore, but most weeks they've improved
the phelix every week. So I guess another chalk bet

(39:15):
I'll be on sinceive I don't feel good about it.

Speaker 1 (39:18):
Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Cleveland is down to three and a half,
so the line is moving in their direction. Yeah, obviously
Cleveland is where the wise guys are putting their money. Yeah,
you know, we have historically been betting the Browns when
they're at home with their defense. You want to fade

(39:39):
Mike Tomlin when he's a road favorite and they're not
the underdogs and he's not in the raw round Mike
Tomlin spot. We've said these lessons a million times, so
I give a very unenthusiastic Cleveland Browns take it, hold
your nose, but I don't see it being one of

(39:59):
our five.

Speaker 2 (40:01):
I did some very lazily. I shouldn't even say me.
I mean a guy that works when we actually do this.
I mean, go back and listen to our shows from
back in the day when we used to whenever the
Browns played the Steelers, because I just wanted to see,
did we always blindly just fade the Steelers share and we,
shockingly have. We basically every year we take the Browns
to the exact spot since we've been doing the show together.
And I was like, okay, now I have to look

(40:22):
up to see if that's actually worked for me and
trend that because I choose I saw us. I was like,
we must blindly bet this every year. There's never not
a time their dog because I think they have something
crazy right. It's like twenty three straight games the Browns
have lost outright against the Steelers on the road, but
at home. I was like, you know, I think it
is different. I did look it up they've won their
last they're five of their last six games at home.
The Browns have beat the Steelers outright, and they're actually

(40:44):
on a three game win streak covering streak at home,
this Browns team against Steelers. So it's been good to us.
We've been blindly betting this and it's been honestly working
out for us. And I'm just like you, It's like,
this is the exact time to go against Pittsburgh, total
letdown game against a Browns team that we talked about.
They got very lucky, right they had an end zone
dropped touchdown in a missed b pat they shouldn't have

(41:05):
covered last week, and I don't think it's being priced
as if they did either where It's like I feel like,
even if you know they they didn't cover, this number
is still what this is right now. I think the
pros came and hammered it, so I like anything above three, well,
we'll back this Brown steam here in a total leatdown
spot for this team. And you know, Pittsburgh dead has
been just like Carolina. They've been up and down all season.

(41:26):
It's really hard to get a read on them. So,
uh now, I don't know if I'll make our final five.
It could potentially because it is such a good number.
But Pittsburgh's been another team that feels like it's been
a tough read for me this season.

Speaker 1 (41:37):
You made someone on your team listen to all of
our shows about these specific games going back to twenty nineteen.

Speaker 2 (41:45):
Yeah, but it's easy because it's all time marked, like
Matt Mitchell used to put in when we would talk
about certain games, So all you have to do was
just fast ward. I just didn't feel like listening to myself, honestly,
so I was like, you got to do this. But yeah,
you think that's bad, It's that's easy. That's that's a
good day for that guy. Believe me, compared to other
stuff these guys have to do.

Speaker 1 (42:03):
I might make my whole family listen to the show
on the way at the City on Thursday instead of clicks. Yeah,
instead of listening to the game, We're just going to
listen to Dad talk about the game. And I guarantee
what it will look like because you're a young bachelor
and don't have children, it will look like my nineteen

(42:24):
year old in the back with his air pods in
my twenty two year old in the back with his
AirPods in and my wife not listening to anything that
includes my voice, whether it's recorded or otherwise.

Speaker 2 (42:37):
Honest, I'm with the gen zs there. I'm big into
headphones and cars. I don't know why. It's just my therapy.
Just good music. Listening to music while someone else is
driving around, it's a good one.

Speaker 1 (42:47):
I want the communal experience. I want us to all
enjoy it together, especially especially me New England at the
New York Jets. Jets thirteen. This was thirteen and a half.
So it's come down a click. The team that just
creator versus the team that just had the huge emotional
win in prime time. The teams that are dogs on
a two plus game losing streak that are thirteen plus

(43:09):
points at home fifty seven percent against spread since nineteen
eighty nine, Thank you, Killer Sports. The Pats continue to
be banged ut Trevion Henderson concussion Snoop putt Ley did
move the ball against them? Am I squinting? Am I squinting?
To look for the opportunity with the Jets, Brady Cooks
going to be the quarterback again? What am I missing here?

Speaker 2 (43:36):
Yeah? If you're ben the Jets, you're literally bet on
a miracle, like that's what you're gonna need. The Patriots
are better than them and every every way possible. Like
the Jets, we knew they were a gutted team, right
They got rid of all their their star players, which
was again smart move by them. Honestly, I have liked
everything they'd done, except they're head coaching higher. Like when
you see a guy like Vrabel or Ben Johnson, you're

(43:57):
an owner, just pay the money for the guy, like
it just will never makes sense to me. It's like
these guys can change your whole franchise. Aaron Glenn, he's
a good guy, good DC. I don't know what he
does for them. He doesn't call the defensive plays like
I've talked about that. He just it's a very bizarre hiring.
And Chad's not wrong here. It's probably the right spot
to back the Jets. But after watching this kid cooks play,

(44:20):
I just he's not an NFL quarterback and he doesn't
have any weapons around him to make it any easier
for him. So Vrabel knows the deal. He'll he'll stack
the box, take away the run game, and make this
kid try to put the ball downfield in that's a disaster.
You've seen this Patriot secondary. Eve though they'ved a bunch
of injuries, they do turn the ball over. They are
a pretty good secondary. Yeah, I know how much you
love Chris Gonzales, so already off the field's gone. So

(44:42):
it's it's just a unique spot. Mike Vrabel against you know,
teams under five hundred in his career twenty nine to
seventeen against the spread. So he does well against really
bad teams. We already know that about Rabel and this
is no different. This is a very bad Jets team.
So if you want to back the Jets and just
simply blind it because the number is so big, get it.
But anything under fourteen, I think is okay for me

(45:02):
to take Patriots.

Speaker 1 (45:03):
Wow.

Speaker 2 (45:05):
Yeah, Now the Jets are awful. They're just they're just bad.

Speaker 1 (45:09):
I mean, they're truly terrible. No, I completely agree.

Speaker 2 (45:12):
It's just you're betting the number. If you're been in
the Jets, are simply just bet the number.

Speaker 1 (45:15):
Such a big number. Yeah, Tampa Bay at Miami. I
have no reason to say I like the Dolphins Dolphins
other than I don't know if the Bucks can cover
a big number right now, Like there's no there's no indication.
But a lot of times when you're betting, you're betting
on the evidence of things unseen. Right, we have a

(45:39):
lot of evidence for the Buccaneers of things we've seen
where this team consistently shoots itself in the foot and
isn't able to execute and out maneuver teams, especially teams
that are worse than them. And so I don't want
to bet the Dolphins, but I'm not betting the bus,

(45:59):
and I probably be more inclined to take the home
dog here when everybody is going to be riding the
real favorite.

Speaker 2 (46:07):
Yeah, it's tough, Like there's so many games are just
so gross you hate and you know you have to
do though, And that's what he's so brutal about, Like
we know we're half about the Dolphins and you know
the Bucks. I gave up that crazy stat that I
got from Memory Adams. It was like, you know, I
think this is their first seven game ATS losing streak
since like nineteen eighty three or eighty two, Like this
just does not happen the Bucks franchise. And we've made

(46:31):
millions of excuses because we're both big, big Baker fans
and you know, he is clearly has some type of injury,
but you can't you can't deny these numbers. I mean,
the guy has just been terrible. He's thirty seven of
thirty nine quarterbacks and completion percentage since that Week eight
game or Week seven game against the Lions, and that's
when we all think he got hurt. He just has

(46:51):
been terrible. He's thirty six of thirty nine qbs and
EPA per play. He's just horrible right now. It's we're
just not used to it because then the first couple
of weeks he was like a top three, top four MVP,
Candy To type of guy. And he's been anything about
these last couple of weeks. So, like you said, this
is too big of a number. Miami. They can still
run the ball. We saw that last week in Cincinnati.
They were able to move the ball. Eventually, this the

(47:13):
wheels came off because Joe Burrow was just in kill mode.
He just could not stop missing. So, you know, Bucks
get a right spot, this is exactly where they should
get right blow out this Dolphins team. But it's hard
to have any type of faith. Then they just have
looked totally lost this season.

Speaker 1 (47:28):
I feel like we're non committed on that game.

Speaker 2 (47:31):
I'm betting the Dolphins, but I am not committed in
the sense that, like you're talking about, have to put
real money into this Dolphins team that look like they
totally quit last week. I'm not doing it, Like I
am not putting my money. But for my pick pulls,
I have to make a pick.

Speaker 1 (47:44):
I'll take Dolphins, New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders are one and a half point favors right now.
This is the battle for the number one overall pick.
So the Giants, they have a QB. We think they
have a receiver in neighbors. They have the front four,
they have all pro left tackle. If they keep the

(48:06):
number one, they can trade down and get so much
more of what they need. If the Raiders lose and
get the number one, they can draft Fernando Mendoza or
Dante More. They definitely need to get that quarterback. So
what are we ultimately betting on here? Are we betting
on both teams trying? Are we betting on one of
the teams not trying? Are we betting on the management

(48:27):
recognizing the value to their franchise of the number one pick?
Are we going to get a Lovey Smith with the
Texans two years ago, three years ago, and all of
a sudden, he decides, screw it, screw the franchise, screw management.
My team's going to win and they end up losing
the overall number one pick. Like, I don't know what
we're betting on here, motivation or talent?

Speaker 2 (48:50):
Yeah, and I mean, man, Mitchell was giving us his
speel before the show about how this is like a
Raiders team that they want to win. They're going to
try to one with the Giants. Really don't care. I
see both sides of it, though. If you're Jackson Dart,
why take the risk? If it's you and you know,
if your team has a number one pick, they could
take Mendoza. They were. There's a tide to him, like

(49:11):
he's the twenty second pick. It wasn't like he was
a top one, top two pick. Guys had multiple concussions already,
his rookie year has been in and out of the lineup.
If I was him, my god, do I think in
my mind I need to win this game. I can't
let that even become an option and this Raiders team.
I agree with Matt though, that, like you know Pete
Carroll does not care about the future. I think he

(49:31):
knows he's on the way out. Saying with Gino Smith,
I think they're playing for future endeavors, so I think
they'll try to win, and you know, luckily there are
some stats here even though this is historically horrible, Like
this is so rare to both teams two and thirteen
playing this late in the season since nineteen ninety when
both teams have a win percentage less than thirteen percent.

(49:51):
So we've seen four matchups since the exact time, and
week eleven or later, the home team is four and
oh straight up historically in this spot, so there is
some story they did a backup as well. The Raiders.
This is technically a good's about to take them, right,
the worst team at home that are both terrible teams
tend to show up and play hard on the other team.
That's just why wouldn't they have given up? Right the Giants,

(50:12):
It's uh, it's it's totally over for them. Defensively, I
mean they still like Burns, all these guys they're playing
for incentives tough that, but offensively that that was so
bizarre last week. I'm having I think it's so bizarre
pass the ball thirteen times, I'm I'm of them. I
guess I'll be on the Raiders and that's gonna end
up being another super public favorite. Just look at the
money right now, it's all the money, all the tickets

(50:33):
are on the Raiders. So I agree with it. So
we'll see what this number goes. If it doesn't budge,
maybe I could talk our way out of it comes Sunday.
But this feels like under three at home Raiders. If
this is not the time we take them in the contest,
I don't know when there is.

Speaker 1 (50:46):
Oh god, that is they're like, of all the grossness
that's happening, that feels like the grossest thing you've said today.

Speaker 2 (50:56):
Yeah, it's I don't enjoy it either, but it just
feels like they're the veteran team and somewhat and we
saw last week they can move the ball offensively. With
this this Giants team looks like they've totally packed it in.

Speaker 1 (51:07):
Well, look, Matt Mitchell said it before the show. Pete
Carroll doesn't feel like the guy who tanks, right, and
he also could give a shit if he gets fired.
So and if he gets fired, losing the number one
pick on the way at the door, unless Tom Brady

(51:29):
calls him and he's like, dude, do not fuck this
up for me. I want to get Fernando Mendoza Philadelphia
at Buffalo. Buffalo. It's moving in the in the Eagles direction.
It was two and a half. I like the Bills here.
I don't think the Eagles can stop their run game.
I think the Bills have more to play for. I
think there's still injury issues for the Eagles, who have clinched.

(51:53):
They can't get the number one seed. Like I want
to play the Bills. I'm surprised the number is moving
against them right now.

Speaker 2 (52:01):
Me too, honestly, just because I see no reason why
the Eagles would even try in this game. They just
feel like they're locked in. They're a team that's had
injuries all season. Why not rest a lot of key guys.
It's just you can use these next two weeks the
rest guys. But you know, the pros maybe just view
what I I think most of us know. I know
the Bills have looked better, but honestly, when you break

(52:21):
this down, the Eagles are much better than this Bills team.

Speaker 1 (52:24):
Much better. They look like we were worried about Mariota
as a mobile QB against the Eagles defense, and it
was playing out exactly that way.

Speaker 2 (52:34):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (52:34):
What about what about with Josh Allen?

Speaker 2 (52:36):
Yeah, honestly, it's shocking. Josh Allen. You know, he dominates everyone.
I think the Eagles are the only team in his
career he's never beaten. He's owned two straight up oz
and to two against the spreading his career. But I'm
like you, it's like the Eagles, what are they playing
for on the flip side of the Bills. They want
to roll and destroy this team. Yeah, and they're the
best running team of football. The should be able to
run all over this Eagles team that has been suspect

(52:57):
against the run all season. And you know, I just
I don't really, I'm like you, I don't not get
this one. The pros they're coming in heavy on this
ego side. Like the snumber was up to three to
a bunch of books, now it's I'm seeing a bunch
of one and a halfs pop up. So I bet
maybe there's injury, maybe there's an injury or missing brother.
But I'm with you, it's like one and a half.
You can get that right on the Bills. I am

(53:18):
all over that number. I just think the Bills could
easily blow out this Egos team here.

Speaker 1 (53:22):
Yeah, I bet the two and a half because yesterday
it looked like it was going to three. I wanted
to grab it, and then I looked this morning, I'm
like one and a half. What do I miss?

Speaker 2 (53:30):
Here? And Bills, I'll give them this. They're five and
zero against the spread this season. They faced teams above
five hundred, so you know they've done they've done well
when they play against really good teams. That's also a
little skew too. But wait, that's not true because I
remember that they lost to the Patriots. Yeah, so yeah,
I don't know why that trends.

Speaker 1 (53:48):
I don't know. I don't know where you're getting your
facts alternative facts from Simon Hunter.

Speaker 2 (53:54):
Right now, Egos. On the flip side, they are three
and six when they're on the road since twenty twenty
playing against a team that is above five hundred, zero
and six when they have won and covered the previous game.
So it's a weird spot for this sequence team. They
tend to have letdowns in the following games on the
road back to back.

Speaker 1 (54:13):
Simon Hunter, Remember the mainstream media just making stuff up unbelievable.
Let's talk about it under.

Speaker 2 (54:22):
Of the bus. But I didn't make that start up, obviously,
I got them from someone else.

Speaker 1 (54:25):
I'm kidding. I'm just kidding and making fun of the
mainstream media. Primetime spotlight, let's focus on these standalone games,
because we get to see our favorite team, the Chicago Bears,
rolling into the Bay Area to play the San Francisco
forty nine Ers, who were a three point favorite. You

(54:47):
loved the Bears on Sunday night, yep, After last night,
how do we feel about fading the Niners? Looking so perfect,
looking so party perfect? In primetime? Five touchdowns for black
Party team looked great. Colts couldn't stop here. I was

(55:09):
just gonna say, it feels like the exact time you
want to fade the Niners.

Speaker 2 (55:12):
And my fantasy team appreciated that Black Purdy. But my god,
this man literally put a bar soap into a sock
and beat the shit out of me last night. Every
time he dropped back and it was like thirty seven
or thirty and eight, I knew he had a completion.
I knew it was gonna be for ten or fifteen yards.
And anytime they're in the red zone. I knew it
was somehow gonna be a touchdown. I mean, we got
super lucky. They had a touchdown not called a touchdown,

(55:34):
and he just had a wide open dump off to
McCaffrey for a touchdown. It's like Colts, if there's a
guy to cover in the red zone, I'd say McCaffrey's
number one. Just double them.

Speaker 1 (55:42):
It was astonishing how infrequently they were able to cover
anybody on the field. Again, I went to bed at halftime,
so whatever, but it was weird how wide open guys were.

Speaker 2 (55:54):
Uh. I don't know, I am a sucker here, but
I feel like we're supposed to be betting the Bears
a bit harder. But brock Purty, since he's come back
from injury and replaced mac Jones, he heard the haters
like me, he heard the noise saying, get rid of party,
get back on the cheap. They're not that much difference,
which the numbers bear it out. But the man is
five and zero straight up and against the spread. Since

(56:15):
he's coming back, he's been an absolute toward to force
brock Purty. So I don't know what to do, Chad,
Like this just feels like the time to take them.
But unfortunately, all the trends, all the numbers say otherwise.
So teams on eight days rest or more who are
an underdog twelve and thirty nine straight up twelve and

(56:36):
twenty nine against the spread dating back to twenty two
thousand and three. It's not ideal. It's not the best spot,
I guess for this Bears team, but I do feel
like that has to help them, right They're they're on
extended prep the Niners on our shirt week. It's just
maybe I'm just too like I said, tune love with
this Bears team. They've just always covered this number for
me this season, right, They've been in Every game is close,

(56:58):
So like you said, it feels like the exact time fade.
The Niners don't rush the window though. We might be
able to get a three and a half, just like
we saw with that Ravens number in the Patriots. That
number got the three and a half, Jaguars got the
three and a half. So we've seen some of these
numbers do bump up. I'm missing grab it right now
just in case it does drop two and a half.
But I just I see professionals coming on a Niner team.
They're just such a well owned machine, and you know

(57:20):
the deal, Chad. Your defense it's been held together with
bubble gum and tape. It's like your secondary so banged up.
But I said it, this Niners team, their defense is
banged up too, and you saw Rivers was tearing them up.
So I just feel like it's gonna be another back
and forth and the Bears they get turnovers, they get stops.
I just it's the number. I can't help it. If
it was two and a half, I could see maybe

(57:41):
me being more towards this Niners team. But three, three
and a half, that's what I'm beat with this Bears team.

Speaker 1 (57:46):
Well, look, the one of the reasons we liked the
Colts last night is because we expected a Jonathan Taylor game.
The forty nine Ers rushes defense just isn't very good,
and so if the Bears can execute on the ground
the way they have been all year, that could mitigate
a lot of the defensive issues of the Bears have

(58:07):
because they'll control the clock for a little bit longer
than I think the Colts were able to last night.
And by the way, there were so many throws where
Philip Rivers, you know, he was even a bowling ball,
and it was just not getting where it needed to be.
Those are throws that Caleb Williams can make. So I
have reason to believe in the Chicago Bears. Do we

(58:32):
have reason to believe in the Atlanta Falcons. The number
has moved against the Rams Monina Football from eight and
a half down to eight, So the wise guys are
betting the Falcons. I can see it like they have
been much much better with Kirk Cousins. They just have
right and so and even last week, like they struggled
against Arizona in the first half, then they pulled away.

(58:54):
They kept Arizona at bay. They didn't let him get
that back door. You know, it'll be the kind of
game where it's going to be fast on turf, indoors.
Big number for the Rams. I feel like you're gonna
tell me Sean McVay in December.

Speaker 2 (59:11):
There you go, good man. There's nothing but there's nothing
but cover for us. Last week, the refs they tried
their best, Chad, they tried so hard to not let
us cover that Rams number. We still got there. The
plus one and a half just incredible. Yeah, it's McVeigh
in December and even better it's McVeigh after a loss
in December, which is very rare, just the fact that

(59:31):
it's off a loss. McVeigh in his career thirty two
and nineteen against the spread off a loss. It is
the best record for any head coach since he ended
the league in twenty seventeen. Even better when he's off
a loss playing at night. He's eight and four against
the spread in his career, so tends to back it
up in the sense that they lose games. I mean,

(59:51):
that was insane, Like to me, A guy was shocked
to my model had this at ten and a half.
The more I think about it more it makes sense, right,
they should have won. That's yeah, ten ten and a half.
I mean that just never in our lifetime. We may
never see a team, you know, ten minutes later get
a two point gone their way because a guy picked

(01:00:12):
up a football after the whistle, which I know people
are complaining a lot of people in the sports worker complaining,
and I was shocked to I had to google it.
They changed a rule I guess in like two thousand
and nine that on a play like that doesn't matter
if the whistle is blown, the play is not dead.
So I know people are upset about that, but it's
like it doesn't matter. Like you know, every other play
in football matters. If the whistle's blown. It doesn't matter

(01:00:34):
on that exact play a forward pass, It does not
matter if our backward pass, I should say, it does
not matter if the whistle is blown. So I was
again losing my mind because I was like, that whistle blew,
that's a dead play that two pointers should not counted.
So this feels like a weird number. The Rams are
being punshed a little bit, Like you said, this is
gonna be very public. Another all Joe all the Joe's

(01:00:58):
are going to be just lining up betting this Rams team.
They're gonna be in every Parla moneyline bet. Just you
expect them to bounce back and obviously dominate this Atlanta
team that they're another team that they've been being up on.
It feels like bad teams here. Now they're playing what
I think is the class at the NFC. So you know,
Chad set out the top McVeigh December. It's what is it,
two and o already this month so far, it gets

(01:01:19):
the spread. It's it's been covering. I'm gonna keep rying.
I just love McVeigh here and this Rams team.

Speaker 1 (01:01:23):
All right, Look, we got a lot to decipher on Friday.
Don't forget. We will be back on Friday. Everyone, please
enjoy a safe, happy Mary Christmas. Enjoy the games, Enjoy
your families, Enjoy whatever you're going to be doing wherever
you're going to be doing it. We're coming back for

(01:01:44):
Boxing Day. Simon says was surprisingly Seattle minus seven on
the road against Carolina. Chad's choice was Houston plus two.
If you can get a two and a half, there
are some available, go get it. We got a lot
of games to discuss us over Saturday and Sunday. When
we get back to it on Friday. Ho ho ho

(01:02:06):
to my bff Simon, Merry Christmas. To our producer Matt
Mitchell and his family. Merry Christmas. This has been Sharper Square,
part of the Volume podcast Network. We'll be back on
Friday with the games, zeroing in on our head to
head battle brass Ball so much more. Watch to listen
on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to
the channel, download us FRO, Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you

(01:02:28):
get your pods. Great review subscribe We use five stars,
say whatever you want. Feedback is like a Christmas gift
under the tree until next time. I Love you, Harry,
Christmas

All Episodes

Sharp or Square - NFL Week 17 Bets: Lions-Vikings, Broncos-Chiefs, Texans-Chargers, Ravens-Packers, Eagles-Bills and more

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Colin Cowherd

Jason McIntyre

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

The Bobby Bones Show

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Sharp or Square - NFL Week 17 Bets: Lions-Vikings, Broncos-Chiefs, Texans-Chargers, Ravens-Packers, Eagles-Bills and more