Sharp or Square - NFL Week 18 Bets: Seahawks-Niners, Panthers-Bucs, Lions-Bears, Ravens-Steelers, Packers-Vikings and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper's Square, the podcast presented by hard Rock Bet.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

Speaker 1 (00:08):
This is the show that makes the squares sharper and
makes the wise guys pay attention.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
I am Chad Millman.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
I am joined as always by my BFF, my companion,
my Compirey, my Coast Professional, Better Simon and ETOs Simeon.

Speaker 3 (00:25):
Chad, how are we doing, dude?

Speaker 2 (00:29):
I feel pretty good. I feel alive again.

Speaker 1 (00:31):
I feel I'm thirty six hours removed from my deathbed
with COVID.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
I've moved on.

Speaker 1 (00:38):
We went two and three last week in our five
favorite picks. Don't forget those picks. The results everything where
we are on standings available to everyone to see in
the Sharper Square contest page. For those who showed up.
Shout out to the contest player named the Big Why,

(01:00):
who is currently number one in our contest with sixteen
total wick listeners. There listen, It's lingering, but it's not contagious, okay.
With sixteen total wins five weeks remaining in the context,
we won with the Browns in the Seahawks. We lost
with Titans, Bills and Bears. Dude, that was one of

(01:22):
the best games of the year. That might be why
I still felt a little bit shitty on Monday, because
I stayed up for that game.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Simon.

Speaker 1 (01:31):
I teased this a little bit on Sunday night on
the show. We talked about the Bears, We talked about
the Raiders, their Max Crosby issue. I have a solution
that will put the Bears in the Super Bowl. I
ran it through chat GPT this morning and it totally works.

Speaker 2 (01:49):
Are you ready git me with?

Speaker 1 (01:52):
My prompt was, if I were GM of the Bears,
how could I make a trade for mac Crosby work?
And I told chat GPT, consider the salary cap, consider
dead cap, consider all financial issues. Consider the value that

(02:15):
would be required from the Raiders based on previous trays
for players of this value.

Speaker 2 (02:21):
And I said I was.

Speaker 1 (02:21):
Willing to include Dj Moore because my thinking is next
year Luther Burden, Romadunza, those are the primary receivers for
the Bears.

Speaker 2 (02:29):
So Dj Moore, who's expensive, can also be moved.

Speaker 1 (02:32):
Right, he's all of a sudden, a little bit unnecessary.

Speaker 3 (02:36):
I don't have to defend your position, just kick it
live through with my friend.

Speaker 1 (02:39):
Chat GPT was very excited and thought I was brilliant, okay,
and it believes the deal could work financially if more
restructures this contract before the trade and Crosby after the trade.

Speaker 2 (02:49):
The Bears would have to give up a first, a.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
Second in twenty twenty six and a twenty twenty seven
second round maybe a sweetener of a fourth or a fifth.

Speaker 2 (02:56):
And twenty twenty six. I also asked Crosby.

Speaker 1 (02:59):
I also ask GGP, Steve Crosby is good enough, like
over the next three to four years. He's in his
peak window right now, twenty six to twenty eight. He's
twenty eight years.

Speaker 2 (03:07):
Old, but.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
They still chetch Ept said he would still be at
an elite level of playing over the next three to
four years. So I feel like I've done Ryan Pace's job.

Speaker 2 (03:22):
Go make it happen. Bears in the Super Bowl next
year and.

Speaker 4 (03:25):
Even talk about just history repeats itself. Right, this is
Kalil macklover again. Go get the guy from the Raiders.
Bring that's right him to the Bears.

Speaker 3 (03:32):
Chat.

Speaker 4 (03:33):
Do I need a dumb mask Competer to tell you
all this this is gonna happen. I've already seen the future,
but as an Eagles fan, I'm being selfish and I'm
hoping we get him too, but I just think him
the Bears, it just seems like a match we in
Heaven and you saw the one thing you're missing in
that game. You don't have an athletic passage take on
a quarterback, even like Purdy.

Speaker 3 (03:51):
So that was that's literally why you guys lost that game.

Speaker 4 (03:54):
You just had a safety on him, he got away
from it, You had him sacked, got away from it,
rushed for a touchdown. It's just it's brutal. We talk
all the time that quarterback, offensive linemen, and then the
end are always the top three most draft picks, and
you basically have nailed the offensive line.

Speaker 3 (04:10):
The quarterback. You just need that d end.

Speaker 1 (04:12):
Let's go get him double X, double X, Max Crosby.
That's the reason why we're forty seven and thirty eight
through seventeen weeks instead of forty eight and thirty seven
because we went too and three, because the Bears lost
by four and we had three.

Speaker 2 (04:25):
And a half in the contest. This is our Tuesday show.
We're going to go over the entire slate.

Speaker 1 (04:29):
It's also the last weekend for players to reach contract incentives.
It's become an annual betting ritual. So when relevant the
ones that I've been able to find, I'm going to
try to highlight those. Don't forget watch the Sunday show
for our final five picks. You can watch all of

(04:52):
our stuff at YouTube, Sharper Square, subscribe like this video.
Also on audio download us at Apple, Spotify, wherever you
get your pods. Okay, simon Huge Saturday Slate, it's going
to decide some divisions, going to decide some seedings in
the conference. Also some player incentives. Fun ones to look
at for this game. Carolina at Tampa Bay. This number

(05:15):
is down to two and a half. That moved through
the three open three and a half on Sunday. We
both liked it at three and a half. Got down
to two and a half for today. Majority of the
tickets coming in on the Panthers, so not surprising. Incentives
to watch, Okay, incentives to watch which could play into

(05:39):
the game script we need as Panthers betters. Ric o'dowell
needs seven yards total to reach thirteen to fifty for
the season, earn him a million dollars if he gets
one more TV chat.

Speaker 3 (05:53):
You gotta scratch on these they cannot be like that.
How's that gonna help anyone there? He could now eat
seven more yards.

Speaker 2 (05:58):
Guy, I'm giving you the whole picture.

Speaker 4 (06:01):
You cannot do this the whole show. I refuse to
sit here. I don't incentives.

Speaker 2 (06:05):
I don't have it for the whole show.

Speaker 4 (06:07):
Do not tell me that needs seven more yards to
get an incentive. I'm gonna lose my mind.

Speaker 1 (06:10):
Don't use he needs one more touchdown, one more touchdown
to get another two fifty. My point is you can
play the anytime touchdown, but it's going to be worth
parlaying it with whatever yardage totals you want to parlay
it with, because he's going to be getting that million
dollar bonus as well.

Speaker 2 (06:29):
That's my fucking point.

Speaker 3 (06:31):
I know you're gonna make me lose my mind, though.
If they're all like that, uh.

Speaker 2 (06:34):
I'm gonna make your mind.

Speaker 4 (06:36):
I think we're on the same page. We know Panthers
are gonna be the public side, but what are we
supposed to do here?

Speaker 3 (06:40):
People know this show, they know us.

Speaker 4 (06:42):
This is thank god we can have woild at least
in the contest in it's a Saturday game.

Speaker 3 (06:47):
Yeah, but I love it. I love it. I bet it.
We think we both bet the three when on Sunday
night you got.

Speaker 1 (06:53):
The three and a half and I bet the money line.
And now I'm going to bet Rico Dubdo parlays.

Speaker 4 (06:58):
And I'm right there with you the Panthers, like I
bet it. I am shocked the public are still having
this side. I just thought there'd still be some Baker
truthers out there, but it seems like that ship has
totally burned.

Speaker 3 (07:09):
I mean they are. This has to be the lowest.

Speaker 4 (07:12):
Possible time we've been able to buy Baker since he's
probably been on this Bucks team since maybe his first start.
Like this just is rock bottom. And the numbers are insane.
How scared they are. I think people already know are
Panthers numbers right? The Panthers seven to zero this season
after a loss against the spread as an underdog.

Speaker 3 (07:33):
Uh, they've been an absolute machine.

Speaker 4 (07:35):
You know they are covering those spreads after a loss
by eleven points per game. It's just a thing we've
talked about all season. We've just fade them back in
the next week. It's been one of the easier things
than why we have that winning record. It's been a
very lazy trend, but it's been hitting like crazy, So
once again shocked the public is backing bright songky through
for what fifty six yards?

Speaker 3 (07:55):
You said, Chad last week. It's ridiculous, nightmare.

Speaker 4 (07:57):
But the Baker stats, I'll give them to you. He
is horrible, horrible at home Baker, Like we talk there
all the time. There's all these crazy trends. He is
twenty two and thirty six against the spread in his
career at home. That is the second worst profitable quarterback
in the history of football at home.

Speaker 2 (08:16):
That's crazy.

Speaker 3 (08:18):
Number one is Jay Cutler, which was actually pretty funny.

Speaker 2 (08:21):
Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler Ready, I don't care.

Speaker 3 (08:27):
At home against his own divisional opponents.

Speaker 4 (08:29):
Baker five and fourteen against the spread since twenty twenty
is two to twelve against the spread at home as
a favorite against a divisional opponent. Uh, it's just a nightmare.
And tons of terrible Todd Bowles stats. Basically Todd bowls
in a must win playoff game in his career, so
you know these late in the season type of games,
and it feels like he's been coaching forever.

Speaker 3 (08:51):
So assistance two thousand and five.

Speaker 4 (08:53):
He is twenty five and thirty seven straight up at
this exact spot. It's one of the worst marks by
any head coach. If you bet one hundred bucks on
each time to fade him, you would be down. Or
if you've bet one hundred bucks on him every time
in this exact spot, you'd be down two thousand, two
hundred dollars. It's just we have to blombly bet it.
Like I'm trying to give other stats. We just have

(09:14):
to buack Carolina. So we love them. We know it's
the public side. At least we both have good numbers.
I hope people listen to Sunday and got a good number.
I am with Chad that I would take the money
line as well. I wouldn't let the two and a
half scarry off. I'd still bet that. We talk all
the time. It's such a key number. But the NFL
messed up with this game. I think we both know
that they did not think the Falcons were win. Now,
even if the Panthers lose this game, they could still

(09:36):
make the playoffs if the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday.

Speaker 3 (09:39):
So a bizarre game.

Speaker 4 (09:40):
Honestly, Chad like a game I'm I'm not putting too
much into because it's moved off the three. But I
am still on the Panther especially here in all those
stats are really because we confident back in them.

Speaker 1 (09:49):
And you'll also be on ric o'dowdell anytime touchdown with
the parlay of Panthers money line and Rico o'dowdell's you know,
over rushing yards and passing yards in the game, receiving
yards in the game. Seattle at San Francisco, very strange game.
San Francisco is now one and a half point underdog
at home line flip three point move. Sunday night after

(10:12):
the Bears game, this moved from one and a half
Niners to one and a half Seahawks, getting the majority
of the bets are the San Francisco forty nine ers,
So this tells me the wise guys were coming in
on the Seahawks. The Seahawks offense is not the Bears,
we know that, and the Niners did stop the Bears

(10:34):
running game, So I actually I kind of lean Niners
here because now the line has flipped in their direction
and they're the underdog, which has been a pretty good
pattern for us this year. And I like Kyle Shanahan
as an underdog. I like Kyle Shanahan as an underdog

(10:54):
at home. But this Seahawks defense has been so good
on the road.

Speaker 3 (11:00):
They have But I think I think you're making the
sharp reed here.

Speaker 4 (11:03):
Like the line flipped. We both said we like this Seattle,
especially when they opened.

Speaker 3 (11:08):
Up the three. It's flipped now and it's it's one
and a half.

Speaker 4 (11:12):
And you know, the forty nine ers team, I really
cannot believe they won that Bears gam So I know
if I was embarrassing, and I would pissed about that
CJ face mask call and on a pick that kind
of flipped the whole game right and from there. But
PERTY didn't have the silver back gorilla Trent marking that line.

(11:32):
He didn't have Kittle No, I yuk. I mean, it
is bizarro world what the Fourniers are done. It's the
reason Kyle Shanahan is now, you know, the second odds
on favorite to get Coach of the Year.

Speaker 3 (11:43):
It's been really impressive what he's done.

Speaker 4 (11:45):
And I love that spot so much for that Bears team,
just because I was like, oh man, this offensive they're
gonna be able attack the solid defense right, A lot
of the strengths of the Bears, they're gonna be able
to take advantage of I did not see that type
of Kayla Williams game coming.

Speaker 3 (11:57):
That was with the pressure the number one in the line.

Speaker 4 (12:00):
If you're a Bears fan, that was like, that's the
best game he's ever played his career. And even Chad
now is saying, fuck Droy Akoman. He is now Caleb
Williams guy. So he's finally come to the real side
with Caleb, because that was everything you can hope for
if you're a Bears fan.

Speaker 3 (12:14):
That was the moment.

Speaker 4 (12:15):
And in this game here, like we've talked about, how
do we not fade Sam Donald.

Speaker 3 (12:22):
I don't if people remember.

Speaker 4 (12:22):
Last year we were we were all about Sam Donald
heading into that late season. Then we remembered it's Sam Donald.
He chokes in these exact type of scenarios. And even
more so if you just go through Sam Donald's career,
he has faced this foreign Inns team twice. It was
his seventh and tenth worst game worst game of his career.
He had a success rate of thirty seven percent in

(12:44):
his first matchup and forty percent in his second matchup,
so basically completing blow fifty percent of his passes in
both matchups against the Niners defense.

Speaker 3 (12:53):
Before Salah got game back. So I love this Niners team.

Speaker 4 (12:57):
And Chad kind of nailed it two with talking about
when the line moved here party in his career against
the Seahawks, he's six to one in his career when
the spread is under three or less. So if he's
a dog or under a favorite of three or less,
he's three and oh straight up, three and three and
oh against the spread. So the the Niners tend to
own the Seahawks here. We talk all the time about

(13:18):
these great divisional matchups, and it's even more so when
they become a dog. So Shanahan, this is this is
the spot, Like this is really you know, it feels
like they're like Chad said, this is the perfect defense
to give them issues. I still think this defense can
be attacked. We've seen them play good offense. I mean,
even if you go back to that Baker game was
that week two or three. Offenses that can pass the

(13:40):
ball with receivers can move it against them. This the
Niners team. I mean, Brock Perdy, if he was healthy
all season, he would be in the conversation for MVP.
So it's it's crazy how good the Snyders offenses and
uh plus one and a half on the on the
forty nine ers.

Speaker 3 (13:54):
That feels a good steal.

Speaker 2 (13:55):
I'm still glad you brought up Sam because Sam Donald.

Speaker 1 (14:00):
Needs one hundred and fifty yards to hit four thousand
for the year, which will earn him five hundred thousand dollars.
Also needs three touchdowns for another five But it's interesting
to me because that feels like the exact line of
demarcation on a bad Sam Donald game.

Speaker 2 (14:17):
Like, that's you'd expect him to go under this and this.

Speaker 4 (14:20):
Kind of and flip side of Rock Party nine and
eight in his career in December, that's eleven and three.
That's eleven to three straight up in December or later
in five and oh in January. Later when he's playing
at home, rock Party is dominant at home.

Speaker 2 (14:34):
And he's the opposite of Sam Donald. Rock Perty like.

Speaker 1 (14:39):
Does not flinch and has no fear. The bigger the
game is, the bigger the moment is where we've seen
Sam Donald. This is not meant to be an indictment.
It is just relaying the facts. He has not performed well.

Speaker 2 (14:55):
In these scenarios. New Orleans at Atlanta.

Speaker 1 (14:59):
Atlanta is a three point favorite at home, masterful masterful
performance by the Falcons again in prime time against the
heavily favorite Rams, which means we fade the Falcons.

Speaker 3 (15:15):
We do, we fade the Falcons.

Speaker 4 (15:17):
And I was hoping to find some good info on
if the you know, Raheem Morris and the Falcons are
terrible in short weeks, because I was like, oh, that
must be a big deal, right, it's less time to prepare,
blah blah blah. Unfortunately it's not. He's four and two
straight up in against the spread Raheem Morris on a
short week, so tends to have the guys prepared. I
did see a crazy stat was exactly like Kirk Cousins. Basically,

(15:38):
our longtime fans probably remember we blindly faked Kirk Cousins
on Monday Night. He started his career zero to nine
straight up on Monday Night football, Kirk Cousins, and now
is six and one on Monday Night football straight up.
Pretty pretty crazy turnaround, and if you go through he's
basically been.

Speaker 3 (15:53):
A dog in five of those. So something to remember
for next year.

Speaker 4 (15:57):
If Kirkstall has a job seen, a lot of people
are if Kirk probably started all year for Atlanta, they
probably would be one of their divisions.

Speaker 1 (16:03):
You do wonder I totally wondered that, and I wonder
if Kirk Cousins is all of a sudden saved raheem
Morris's job, Like this has just been a much different
team with Kirk Cousins than it was with Michael Pennix.

Speaker 4 (16:15):
But yeah, it's I'm obviously too biased with this game.

Speaker 3 (16:20):
I don't know how I don't bet Shuck or take
the Saints. Here.

Speaker 4 (16:23):
People have found along they know I'm all in on
Shuck the hype train. You know, when he joined this team,
they've won four straight games as a as a starter,
they're on a five game EHTS streak. I really did
think this would be a public darling. But it's early money.
But a lot of the money's coming on the Falcons.

(16:43):
They've moved now from two to two and a half
up to three, so it almost made this. Simon says
that I think we might be able to get to
three and a half, and I gave up that crazy
stat Basically, when the Santra above a three point dog
on the road against a divisional opponent since twenty twenty one,
thirteen to er against the spread, and you know it's
a weird stat they're they're just really good at covering

(17:07):
on the road, and now we've seen with Shuck they've
been an absolute machine. So we're witnessing history if it
works out right. I think had Evan Abrams had an
amazing stat I believe it. Since two thousand and nine,
no player has ever won offensive Rookie of the Year
at greater than touring at greater than fifty to one odds.
Chuck was three hundred to one before his first start

(17:29):
and two hundred to one after his first start. So
the books this will be an all time or for
sports books because I me and Chad I told him
before the show. I remember I bet it, and four
days later before I gave it on the show, it
was still at the same exact number. So the books
were getting hammered and they weren't budgeting. And now he
is odds on favorite even you know, at a plus

(17:51):
plus one oh five, just even with Ted aera McMillan
to be Rookie year.

Speaker 3 (17:56):
So it's history, it really is. We never see anything
like it.

Speaker 4 (17:59):
And I think the biggest dog ever won in this spot.
So before the year people betting, I think was Marshall Latimore,
which was like fifty to one to be dense defensive
rookie of the year. So really really unique spot for
Shuck if you could pull this off. But if you
have that ticket and you can't cash out or do whatever,
you have to take a position.

Speaker 3 (18:18):
You have to hedge and get your money in some way.

Speaker 4 (18:21):
If you bet ten bucks to win two hundred, two thousand, whatever,
you did, you know, a bet one hundred bucks, you
just you have to hedge in somebody. So yeah, shuck,
pretty insane run here, Chad, But like I said, I'm
too close to it. I think it's a three and
a half or even three. I'm hammering the scene side.

Speaker 1 (18:36):
It really makes the Panthers game interesting, like a side story,
and there's going to be if they win and Teo
McMillan has an impact, how is that going to play
with the voters that he's on a team that finished
above five hundred and won the division.

Speaker 3 (18:52):
You have to give it to him, Yeah, yeah, like yeah.

Speaker 4 (18:55):
The only reason this is tight tight now is because
I think Tech put up like ten yards nothing.

Speaker 3 (18:59):
Yeah, he keeps it for fifty yards last year exactly.

Speaker 4 (19:02):
That's if he lays another egg, Chad's it's real possible
that Euck doesn't win, he could still get it.

Speaker 3 (19:08):
It's pretty insane.

Speaker 1 (19:09):
By the way, here's a stat that Matt Mitchell just
gave me from our friends on x dot com at
Austin Planet. So I haven't verified this. I'm just trusting
Matt Mitchell. But you know it's not It's not going
to get us sued. Since twenty eighteen, Atlanta Falcons are
fifty three and seventy eight in games played with playoff eligibility.

(19:33):
They're eleven and four and games played after being eliminated
from the playoffs. So if you want to bet the Falcons,
do it now before the number moves. Cleveland is Cincinnati
Cincinnati minus seven and a half. Another one we talked
about on Sunday. We both better at seven, thinking the
Bengal on the Bengals, thinking it would go up, we
bet the Bengals minus seven.

Speaker 2 (19:56):
I still like it for a few reasons.

Speaker 1 (19:58):
Number one, we know the Browns defense does not travel,
allowing thirty percent more points and total yards on their
own on the road than at home. And the Bengals
really have been a juggernaut in the five games since
Joe Burrow came back. Take out that stinker against the Ravens.

(20:18):
They lost twenty four to nothing. Joe was in his feelings.
That was the week of the press conference. It looked
like he just didn't want to be there. Who knows
what was going on. Five total games, twelve touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (20:31):
Four picks for Joe Burrow.

Speaker 1 (20:33):
They're averaging other than that game against the Ravens thirty
eight points per game. So now they get to go
out talking about how important it is for them to
be winning at the end of the year. They get
to feel good about Joe coming back and putting up
highlight numbers. They get to beat the Browns, who we

(20:54):
know don't play as well at home, who are coming
off a huge win. The only thing they're playing for
is the Miles Garrett Sack. I still like the Bengals.

Speaker 4 (21:03):
Here, Yeah, love the Bengals, And we talked a little
bit about it. We tend to just blindly fade this
Browns team off of their wins, and that's been working
out for us. Just because it's rookie quarterbacks, right, they
usually can't handle success. And you know, even when you
dive into the numbers. Since it started last year at Cleveland,

(21:23):
oh and six against the spread, after they straight up
after a straight up win, failing to cover the spread
bybs eleven eleven points per game. So they tend to,
you know, just lay total eggs in this exact spot,
and they have so since last year, and we've kind
of been fading them for that reason alone. Just these
rookies tend to not be able to handle winning, let
alone you're on a really bad team, and we think

(21:43):
that this Browns team that was their super Bowl last week, right,
that really felt like that, And just the way the
players were acting and celebrating afterwards, it really felt like it.
And I am in a weird spot here too where
I have a large investment on the Browns over four
and a half wins, So I'm taking a pretty big
position here on the Bengals money line just to hedge
that bet just in case.

Speaker 3 (22:03):
So I already loved it.

Speaker 4 (22:05):
Like Chad said, we talked a little bit Sunday night
about just grabbing seven just because it felt like it
was gonna go up.

Speaker 3 (22:10):
It has.

Speaker 4 (22:11):
Hopefully you can still shut around maybe get the seven,
but I'm it feels like the same thing with Seattle
last week. I'm not gonna let the hook scam me off.
I'll still take the seven a half I need to.
It just feels like the Cincinnati Bengals roll and Miles
Garrett that sack record. It's interesting to me, this is
probably the best Bengals offensive line he's faced since, you know,
they've had Joe Burrow. Like it's it's crazy when you're

(22:32):
down to the numbers how much the Bengals offensive line has
gotten better this season, improved the season. And I attribute
a lot to Joe, not just Joe flacka but he did.
Feels like he changed the offensive line when he came there.
So I don't know this. It's gonna be interesting to
see what the over under is on his sack because
every week it's basically a minus two hundred zero point
five half sack. I wonder what the odds are gonna

(22:53):
be on I'll probably be that scumback. I'm probably gonna
take the under here. I just I don't know. I
have a feeling about it's Miles Gary not getting it here,
But we'll see. It feels like the Browns are gonna
do everything their possibility to, you know, whether it's stacking
three guys to one side with him, it's just they're
gonna find a way right to try to get him
this record, Simon.

Speaker 1 (23:09):
If you're looking for sack props later in the show,
I have so many incentives to give you. Next game,
Dallas at the New York Giants. The Giants are four
and a half point underdogs. I don't want to talk
about this game.

Speaker 4 (23:27):
Well, the sharps are they're moving it. This is this
is down now to three and a half in a
lot of books. So you know, crazy line opened five
and a half. I honestly thought we would be all
over Dallas, like this is exact type of games Dallas
wins by thirty. They just beat up on bad teams,
let alone games that just have no meaning. And you know,

(23:47):
Cowboys finishing the season eight eight and one just feels
like it makes sense, just feels like another win total
game that matters for me. I talked before the season,
really like their win total. This is obviously way before
they got rid of their best defensive player, maybe the
best one of the best defensive players in the game.
And the Cowboys win total coming the year was seven
and seven. So, uh, they're at seven wins. You need it,

(24:10):
you need the seven. Most people did have seven and
a half. You need this one obviously for the win toll,
but for me, and just look at this matchup. I'm
like Chad, like I'll bet Dallas now, especially at minus
three and a half. But I hate this game like you,
and I just don't really putting to much money against
a professional. They actually have a readier on the Giants
that I'm totally missing. Maybe it's just starts that great

(24:31):
matchup wise against a bad Dallas defense and I'm overlooking it.
But I just I can't see Dak not going all
out trying to pad his stats in this game.

Speaker 1 (24:39):
Another game that feels very uninteresting to me, Indy at Houston.
Houston is now a ten point favorite. The Philip Rivers
experiment is over. Riley Leonard is going to be starting
in this game. The Texans will be playing all of
their starters if there's anybody. And I don't love this

(25:00):
line for the Texans. Is I continue to be worried
about their offense that you know, obviously they couldn't do anything.
Two weeks ago they barely won. They eked out the
win against the Chargers. Their offense createred after the first quarter.
It's not like and the Colts like they've been getting

(25:25):
bedeviled and damaged. But if they're playing everybody ten feels
a little high for this offense. But I'm not going
to play this game.

Speaker 4 (25:36):
I know, I feel like such a sucker because I
want to take take Houston, just fade Riley Leonard and
just a Colts team that how they not just totally
giving up?

Speaker 3 (25:44):
I mean, what does this game mean to anyone on
that team?

Speaker 4 (25:46):
But just one of my favorite things I saw someone
posted the Colts hit their win total over on the
ninth of November and have not won a game since.
Oh my god, it's just insane to think about. Just
I feel so bad for their fans. Like we talked
about it, just the worst collapse you can possibly imagine
as a fan base.

Speaker 3 (26:07):
And I'm with you, Chad.

Speaker 4 (26:08):
It's like, you know, Riley Leonard the w you don't know,
maybe he is the guy to play here because he
could be good and maybe he can run, use his
legs and run.

Speaker 3 (26:17):
But it's like, I know, I know what the sex
team is.

Speaker 4 (26:20):
There are a dominant defense that I'm pretty sure one
or two of those deep ball is that he throws,
and CJ has just been magical with that he's good
at throwing the deep ball, horrible at dinnernews stuff.

Speaker 3 (26:29):
This year it's been bizarre.

Speaker 4 (26:30):
But I don't know in a game where I could
see the Texans getting ready for the playoffs, I'm with you.
It's hard to really back aside here because I think
going the play guys the second half or the resting guys.
So if you have to do it for a pick bull,
it's ten and a half plus ten and a half
or plus ten, I guess I'm gonna take the Colts.
But really don't feel good about this one.

Speaker 1 (26:49):
I don't think we need to talk much about the
next one either, because it's Tennessee at Jacksonville and we're
not allowed to bet the Titans anymore after last week.
And also and also we know Tennessee is gonna be
playing all of its starters. I just don't know if
that's a very good that's good?

Speaker 3 (27:04):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (27:04):
And is there still an outside shot? I have to
look I should have looked up for the show. Is
there still like a weird outside shot that the Jags
can get the one seed if Denver loses because they
yet because they beat Denver or I guess they would
need the Patriots to lose as well, so maybe probably not.
But yeah, that's a weird game. I don't know why
the spread was so big, but it must mean the
Jags are going full out. But yeah, what were we

(27:27):
gonna do? Me and Chad probably both want to take Tennessee.
We're banned from us. We'll keep it moving, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (27:31):
Moving or along.

Speaker 1 (27:32):
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(29:52):
and Virginia. I saw it in another game that we
talked about on Sunday night, Green Bay and Minnesota. There
visiting Green Bay's visiting Minnesota. It opened at five and
a half. We said, grab it.

Speaker 2 (30:06):
We expected this line to go up. That's what happened.
It's moved up to six and a half.

Speaker 1 (30:13):
Really, this is about we still don't know who's going
to be playing quarterback. We expected to be Malik Willis
for the Packers. Matt Lafleur said, Malik Willis could have
come back into the game on Sunday night if the
reck if the score was a little bit closer. He's
also said they've learned their lesson from last season when

(30:37):
they didn't have much at stake in the final game
of the year. They lost Christian Watson for the year,
up for most of this year to a bad injury,
and they actually Jordan love injerded his hand, So we
know they're probably going to rest a lot of starters
in this game, no matter who's playing quarterback. And we
also know that this number has moved to six and
a half, even though you know a preponderance of the

(31:01):
tickets are coming in on Green Bay, so it's professionals
that are moving the money. We're sticking with Minnesota and
the Brian Flor's defense here.

Speaker 4 (31:13):
Yeah, I really would be shocked, honously Green Bay played
in the leak. It's he basically whatever he did to
his shoulder, he heard it throwing, so we already he
was coming into that game with an injury, and then
it's a non contact injury that took him out of
that game. Maybe Little Flord just playing mind games, but
there's no way you can risk playing him where Jordan Love.
Like you said, it's a tricky injury, right, concussions, You

(31:36):
never know how guys are gonna react, especially after a
couple of weeks.

Speaker 3 (31:38):
So I think Green Bay goes full protective mode.

Speaker 4 (31:42):
They only play the lineup they have to play because
they don't have guys they can bring off bench.

Speaker 3 (31:46):
So you expect to see a.

Speaker 4 (31:48):
Third string quarterback against a Brian Floyd's defense. You like
that matchup a lot for Minnesota, especially where they're still
playing hard. Like we've talked about, it doesn't matter who
the quarterback has been, who's in and out their their defense.

Speaker 3 (32:00):
It has been playing hard.

Speaker 4 (32:01):
So you know, it's a game that I doubt we'll
put in our contest just because there's a lot of
unknowns here.

Speaker 3 (32:06):
But I would still take this long.

Speaker 4 (32:08):
It's under seven on Minnesota, But yeah, we're just simply
backing floors in this defense.

Speaker 3 (32:12):
There's not much else to grasp this Vikings offense.

Speaker 1 (32:16):
Josh Oliver, Minnesota Vikings tight end has four touchdowns on
the year on thirteen receptions. Can Josh Oliver get two
touchdowns this weekend? Is so earn two hundred and fifty
thousand dollars. Let's have a little fun. Let's Tyler shuck
this thing. Let's put a little bit of a taste

(32:38):
on Josh Oliver two plus touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (32:41):
On Sunday for the Minnesota Vikings LA Chargers at the
Denver Broncos.

Speaker 1 (32:48):
Broncos are minus twelve and a half. Obviously, they have
so much to play for. They got to lock in
the number one seed. The Chargers have nothing to play for,
which is why Trey Lance is starting a quarterback. I
watched a little bit Trey Lance in the preseason enough
to tell myself, I don't hate Trey Lance, but I
don't see at the end of the day, I don't
see this being one of our final five.

Speaker 3 (33:10):
No, oh my god, I was hoping you would love this.
I love the Chargers here.

Speaker 4 (33:13):
Okay, okay, it's Bo Nicks as a big favorite in
his division, and I think I saw some crazy stat
he's like two to nine this season as a favorite,
when he was what was he eight to zero ye
last year as a favorite. So totally came crashing back
down to earth. And yeah, you know, you could say
it's a horrible match with the Chargers. Agree like they're

(33:35):
gonna be sitting everybody now. They're sitting their backup offensive linement,
so their backups are playing like it's it's gonna be disastrous.
I'm sure, but this just feels like a ton of
points with a mobile quarterback that you know we could
get the back door easily. It's just how hard will
the Broncos be playing the second half? Right, It's gonna
be a really unique, interesting spot. And yeah, it really

(33:56):
is about the number here, Like even with Trey Lance,
I didn't make this bigger than ten.

Speaker 3 (34:00):
It's twelve to twelve and a half. A lot of books.

Speaker 4 (34:03):
I could see all the parlays, all the teasers coming
in on the Broncos come Sunday and we might be.

Speaker 3 (34:06):
Able to get the thirteen, Chad, So I'll be patient here.

Speaker 4 (34:09):
I'm definitely grabbing the twelve and a halfs while they're
out there, but I can only see this one getting bigger.
I'm just not sure other than professionals, who's gonna better
on this Chargers team. So be interesting how the number
goes and where the Broncos end up, if they end
up at thirteen or if this starts coming back down
a little bit.

Speaker 1 (34:24):
Well, like I said, I don't hate it, Like if
I looked at anything. I was leaning Chargers. I just
didn't feel like this has top five mature. Maybe it does,
Maybe I just.

Speaker 3 (34:34):
I'm remember a hard time think of hardball.

Speaker 4 (34:35):
His team's getting blown out, you know, it just feels
like he's such a psychle. I feel like even his
backup's going to get up.

Speaker 3 (34:40):
Well.

Speaker 1 (34:41):
He also got to think if this game was being
played at full strength, it'd probably be closer to two
and a half or three. So you're telling me, justin
Herbert is ten points against the spread compared.

Speaker 2 (34:53):
To the Trey Lance.

Speaker 1 (34:54):
That does feel unusually high to me. So I agree
with you that you're a ton of value on the Chargers.
So we'll see, we'll see how things go, and we'll
see how things evolved.

Speaker 3 (35:05):
We'll have I'm interest see what the lineup is like.
That's that's another thing.

Speaker 4 (35:07):
If you see a lineup we feel comfortable with, Obviously
I'd take a bigger position, but we're just we're so
early in the weeker we have no idea who's resting,
who's actually playing other than Herbert.

Speaker 1 (35:16):
Kansas City at Las Vegas. The Raiders are now six
and a half point underdogs. One of these coaches has
announced he will be back next year. It is Andy Reid,
one of these coaches probably won't be back, and it's
Pete Carroll who will also be starting Kenny Pickett. The
truth is, the Chiefs should probably try to lose here

(35:39):
because if they lose and other teams ahead of them
lose in draft order. I mean right now they're eleventh
in draft order, and teams ahead of them are underdogs
obviously this week, and a couple of those teams, if
they lose, the Chiefs can sneak into the top ten,
which is remarkable to be able to have Patrick Mahomes

(36:00):
them back at some point next year, and you're getting
a top ten draft pick. So you know, I don't
have a I don't have a thought on the side
in this game.

Speaker 3 (36:11):
Now.

Speaker 4 (36:12):
I'm I'm probably just gonna take the Chiefs just because
of the defense, and you know, I just don't think
Spag is gonna lay down here.

Speaker 3 (36:20):
So you know, the fact that is, can you pick it?

Speaker 4 (36:22):
I guess might be better honestly, because you know, just
can't stop throwing picks. But yeah, it's it's just an
awful game, And I'm with you, like there's other awful
games I'd rather bet have money on it a half
to wat Yeah, this one I'll pass on. And I
just feel so bad for your boy Mendoza if this
is where how he ends up, this is where he goes.
The Raiders, this this organization, man, and it just feels

(36:45):
so dysfunctional, so far away. And you're right, it feels
like there's every day you're hearing different leak stories about
how they don't want to bring back Pete Carroll.

Speaker 3 (36:52):
So just I mean, it's been like this.

Speaker 4 (36:55):
For the Raiders since that Super Bowl what was that
two thousand and one, two thousand, They've just been a
train wreck these last twenty.

Speaker 2 (37:01):
Five's that super Bowl a quarter of a century ago.

Speaker 4 (37:05):
Yeah, it's like it's just been horrible, and I just
feel so bad for their fan base. They had one
good Dare car almost MVP year where his legs splits.

Speaker 3 (37:13):
Into two pieces.

Speaker 4 (37:14):
Oh my god, that was very much shit ever since,
and you know, I just they deserved the number one pick.
They've been before, the worst team this year, no doubt
about it.

Speaker 1 (37:22):
If you do want some action in this game, if
you do, Hollywood, Brown needs one touchdown to earn a
two hundred and fifty thousand dollars incentive two touchdowns to
earn two hundred another two hundred and fifty grand, and
one hundred and two receiving yards to earn another two

(37:43):
hundred and fifty grand. So if he has a one
hundred and three yard two touchdown day, he's making an
extra seven to fifty. Someone will be motivated, and who knows,
maybe Andy Reid built a game plan to get him downfield.
I don't know, but something to watch for a little
taste of something. If you're looking for a good time,
don't scoff at me. New York Jets at Buffalo. Buffalo

(38:08):
is seven point favorite. This is a Mitchell Trubisky line.
Josh Allen we saw was struggling late in the game.
Matt Mitchell posited before we went on the air that
they might have gone for the two the Bills because
they didn't think Josh Allen could could survive in overtime.
Hasn't been announced that he's going to rest, but there's

(38:29):
no reason for him to play. But we're not being
the Jets here now.

Speaker 4 (38:36):
And you know what Josh Allen do, hopefully hopefully to
keep a streak life. He'll come out, take the first
snap and then they'll bring in Mitch.

Speaker 1 (38:42):
Yeah, I think that's what they're that's what they've been saying,
that's what the scuttle butt is.

Speaker 3 (38:46):
Yeah, keep his streak going because he's earned it.

Speaker 4 (38:48):
It's like it's him and Eli Man in these streaks
bro far like just lasting in this game of that
position where you're just getting a blindside hit all of it.

Speaker 3 (38:56):
It's crazy these quarterbacks can hold up.

Speaker 4 (38:58):
But yeah, I wanted to honestly bet the Jets, but
the numbers moved too much and now it's becoming a
Bills number. So I'm right there with Chat. It doesn't
matter for those other backups. I still expect the Bills
run game to show up. And on the flip side,
this Jets team, they just have a total zero at quarterback.
It's just you're third and five or third and six.
It feels like third and twenty. It's just horrible the
quarterback plays. So yeah, just we've talked about the the

(39:22):
Jets are on a story call run. I think they're
the first team in like eighty years to lose four
straight or five straight games by over twenty points something
insane like that. They're just a total train wreck right
now of an organization and I know game and came
to lie to myself and try to.

Speaker 3 (39:36):
Fade them here.

Speaker 4 (39:37):
Just going back at Trubisky is a seven point favorite.
I can't believe it. But that's that's how bad it
is for this Jets.

Speaker 1 (39:42):
It's bad Washington and Philly. Philly is a seven point
favorite at home. I mean, I don't have any thoughts
on this game, but I can tell you that it
Philly needs to have a game that gives them offensive confidence.

Speaker 4 (40:06):
Not really, they they just had before that Bills game.
They had big offensive games and that literally has done
nothing for someone like me. I said, I just I
don't trust it, so I know what they're gonna do here.

Speaker 3 (40:16):
It's a game we kind of need to win because
if the Bears lose, we get the two seed.

Speaker 4 (40:19):
And I'd much rather play Green Bay than the Rams,
even though the Rams fick their phone apart here.

Speaker 3 (40:25):
But it's it's a weird, a weird spot in the
it's another win total game. Eagles.

Speaker 4 (40:31):
They win this, they'll go over their win total. They're
sitting at eleven over. Under was eleven and a half.
But yeah, I just like we wanted to do the
first time the Communis play. If it's Mariota, We're getting
a big dog here. You want to take that line,
don't not exactly sure the quarterck's going to be, and
you know, if it is the backup, Josh reluctantly back

(40:52):
this Eagles team. But it's another game I'm scared of.
If the Bears are up thirty five to ten, which
again never known football. If they're up that big though,
and entering the third quarter, entering the fourth quarter, why
would the Eagles not just start yanking starters because there's
nothing to play for at this point. So these games
are very tricky in these final weeks where it's all
you know, it's all gonna be depending on what other

(41:12):
teams are doing in these type of games. So what
I've assumed is he was going to prepare like this
is a real game. But once again Sierans come out
and said he is utmost confidence in the backup quarterback
and allow of that backup players to be able to
win this game as well. So, without knowing what Egles
are going to do, and if I had to make
a pickpool now, I'm going to take the Commanders with
the plus seven just in case the Eagles do russ.

Speaker 1 (41:32):
Starters Simon, you should also take von Miller to get
one sack. He needs to hit one more for the
year to earn a five hundred thousand dollars bonus.

Speaker 4 (41:41):
And that is the first time most probably ninety percent
of the fans have heard von Miller's name this season.

Speaker 2 (41:46):
Most people did not even know he was on the Commanders.

Speaker 4 (41:49):
Yeah, I did, just because it's a running joke that
they basically were like a retirement home this offseason. They
just got every veteran known to man to try to
make a run, and it just everyone got hurt.

Speaker 1 (41:59):
I think we got a game with Detroit at Chicago,
and Chicago is a two and a half point favorite.
They both both coaches have said they're playing to win.
The Bears need it for potential seating, like we just discussed,
the Lions need it for pride pun intended, and Dan
Campbell would sooner quit before he wasn't going to play
a game at full tilt.

Speaker 2 (42:19):
So we got a real handicap, my friend.

Speaker 1 (42:22):
The line has moved in the Bears direction one and
a half to two and a half, but only a
slight majority of the bets coming in for the Bears,
So this feels more like a wise guy move than
a public move. The Bears may not have Roma dunes A,
probably not going to have Luther Burden.

Speaker 2 (42:44):
What do you think?

Speaker 1 (42:49):
I know what I think, and I don't like to
say it because I'm proud of my team. But I
don't think they're the team this week.

Speaker 4 (42:55):
I don't think we see the Bears win another game
this season. Oh my god, I know it, just it
feels that way. That felt like a turning points. Yet
I'm not gonna lie where it's.

Speaker 2 (43:05):
Like, oh I disagree on that.

Speaker 4 (43:07):
Yeah, you think they win this game. They win a
playoff game.

Speaker 1 (43:11):
I'm not talking about this game. I think the Lions
are the right side in this game. But I came
away from that game against the Niners so encouraged, like
the way they played. Kayleb was still missing his easy passes,
but when he can make some plays, and I feel
like they should come out of that game thinking they

(43:31):
went toe to toe with one of the best teams
in the conference and they were one bad sort of
alignment away from having a better chance to win that game.
I'm not discouraged as a fan coming out of that
game at all.

Speaker 4 (43:45):
I'm just telling you from a professional standpoint that when
I look at this, I'm like, oh my god, they
might not win another game rest of the year because
it's a hard matchup and they have the playoffs. It
just feels like it's all losable game in their round
one matchup. Your defense is horrible, that's been your issue.
You've lived on the turnovers and looky for you. Golf
seems like he's got the turnover book. This dude cannot

(44:06):
stop turning the ball over. So I'm simply just playing
the number here. It's three now with multiple books, So
this number is getting hit by professionals, and now they've
bumped it up to three.

Speaker 3 (44:16):
How do I not take that side?

Speaker 4 (44:17):
And I'm going to give out these Campbell's stats, but
I keep saying I hate that I'm doing it because
they might be Ben Johnson's stats. But it is interesting.
Campbell with the lines four to oh straight up four
and oh against the spread in week eighteen. In the
week seventeen eighteen, in his career, he is eight and
two against the spread. That's including not covering last week.

(44:39):
Jared golf Man Campbell as a dog, we know the deal,
twenty nine and fourteen against the spread.

Speaker 3 (44:45):
It's like you just got to bet it.

Speaker 4 (44:47):
And when they end up closing as a dog, they're
twenty three and thirteen, So I know it's it's all
these numbers I keep saying they mightn't mean nothing, but
I just have to keep trusting they they'll get this
offensive going and against a bad Bears if I think
the Bears can win Chad, no doubt. I think they're
the better team right now. They're clearly more healthier TV
with all their injuries. That offensive line has got a

(45:07):
lot of shoes. I just can the Bears take advantage?
Do you guys have pass rushers can take advantage of
that bad offensive line? And unless Golf doesn't turn the
bowl over, I just feel like this is gonna be
a back and forth type of game. So if it
was still a pick or minus one of the Bears,
I think I could be on the Bears side here.
But now we're hitting the three. I mean, come on,
you have to take the lines at that number. So

(45:28):
it's it's tough for me. I love this Bears team,
but I just I see it. I hate it when
I see these things happen, but I just I see
them kind of faltering here in this exact spot, and.

Speaker 3 (45:39):
They need to win it.

Speaker 4 (45:40):
On my opinion chat, they need to win this game
and get Green Bay at home. They do not want
Stafford coming in with this Rams team.

Speaker 1 (45:47):
Oh yeah, I agree. I'd much rather have the Packers
than the Rams. And we're gonna talk about the Rams
in a second. I'm just I'm not worried that anything
I thought you were referring to the Bears. Confidence creating that,
to me, isn't the issue. I think they're going to
be a highly confident. I think they're going to look

(46:07):
at that and be.

Speaker 2 (46:08):
Like, guys, we're so ready to be elite.

Speaker 1 (46:14):
We can play with any team in the NFL. Offensively.
We never have to worry about being out of a game.
We never have to worry, no matter what the score is,
that we're not going to be able to come back.

Speaker 2 (46:24):
Because this offense is so good, so good, that's it.
We'll take the lines, my.

Speaker 3 (46:31):
Listen man, to say that I'm proud of you, it
would be the massive understatement composure.

Speaker 1 (46:36):
Communication Arizona at the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles Rams
are seven point favorites right now at hard Rop Bet.
This is going to be Chad's choice presented by hard
Rock Bet.

Speaker 3 (46:51):
Are you sure you want.

Speaker 2 (46:52):
To do this?

Speaker 3 (46:53):
Are you willing to make a choice? That choice we
can't run from? Can just see it, you know what
I mean?

Speaker 1 (47:05):
When asked if the Rams would play their starters in
Week eighteen, Sean McVeigh said, oh, they're playing We need
to play better, So to me, this is a normal handicap,
not a Week eighteen handicap. And let me give you
some stats about the Cardinals. They remember in the beginning
of the year, where like the Cardinals are playing close,

(47:26):
they're playing hard. They started September October with losses of
one point three points, one point four points, and four points.
Their November December losses have been twenty two points, nineteen points,
three to three, thirty two, twenty seven, and twenty three.
Three of those blowouts losses came in the division. I'm

(47:52):
taking the Rams and to get right spot against a
team that has no answers defensively and very few answers offensively, as.

Speaker 2 (48:00):
We've seen again and again and again, no matter who
they're playing.

Speaker 4 (48:04):
Yeah, I'm right there with you. I like the Rams.
Obviously they let me down last night in a big way.
But this is the type of game like McVeigh. You
could hear in his voice he heeds his offensive put
up like thirty five forty points. Yes, he really is
going to play them throughout in my mind where he's like,
you know what, maybe he'll take out Stafford if he

(48:27):
takes one bad hit and they're up by twenty in
the third quarter or something like that. But I think
he is going to play Stars throughout, Like he just
seems so pissed off after that game where.

Speaker 3 (48:35):
I'm not don't think he said it to him.

Speaker 4 (48:36):
He basically must have said to him, if you guys
win this game, we play well, we can rest the
next week. And they totally laid an egg. And the
Stafford thing is so bizarre. I tweeted about a little
bit they made Drake May during the game. He got
up to like minus three hundred as a favorite to
be MVP. Now he's like minus six hundred. Do you
agree with that at all, Chad? Do you think May
should be the big favorite, that big of a favorite.

Speaker 1 (48:57):
No, because if Stafford goes off again, and don't forget
they almost won that game last night, Like it's not
like they completely rolled over in the second half. They
played like the Rams that we expect them to be right.
They had the opponents to six points, they scored twenty
four points. Like it ended up being a much closer
game than it should have been. So no, I don't
agree with that.

Speaker 4 (49:19):
Everyone like me is looking at you know, Drake may
had a great season. Can we not have a serious discussion.
He had one win against a team with a winning record,
that was the Bills. That's that's a real stat if
you go through their schedule, that's the only one they
have against a team of about five hundred this season. So
it's I just can't run my head around it right now.
And yeah, I'm I'm enticed to take a little position

(49:41):
on Stafford if you don't have any type of position
on MVP, just because it's we saw it last year, right,
Lamar Chad was on the train with Lamar right for
two months you thought it was Lamar. He got up
to minus six hundred that day of the show is
whether they do they that's an East Span or some
award show. You could have go that morning Josh Allen

(50:02):
at plus seven hundred, and all of a sudden you
saw something leaked and all of a sudden he flipped
to be the favorite by the time the show got
an ounce, So I don't think Stafford's totally dead here.
That's like my biggest thing in this game. I'm with
Chad like I'm gonna put a little future on Stafford
just in case and he comes down through his four
touchdowns here, I could see it. Like I talked about,
I think it's like he's earned over his career more

(50:24):
so than Drake has earned it this year. Drake has
had an incredible year, but when you look at the schedule,
the years he has a head on them, I just
how do you not give to Stafford everything he's done?
So I can't believe they took it away from Honestly,
they had what two touchdowns call it back, They had,
you know, a kick return against him. It was just
it's such we overreact so much, and so does a

(50:45):
sports book.

Speaker 1 (50:45):
But he's a plus three hundred now, by the way,
plus three hundred, so it's right.

Speaker 3 (50:50):
So it's moved.

Speaker 4 (50:51):
It's probably moved a little bit because people are thinking,
like me, it's like, are we not overreacting.

Speaker 3 (50:55):
Too much of this?

Speaker 4 (50:55):
And we'll see how much Drake made plays in that
final game where you know he might he might not
play that much in Stafford con pad the stats even
more which end of the day. You know, if he
throws for four touch on this game and he finishes
her with forty four passing touchdowns, I fink that's gonna
be pretty hard to vote not vote f M from MVP.

Speaker 2 (51:12):
I totally agree.

Speaker 1 (51:14):
The writers at the end of the year like to
get really smart, and they're going to want to look
at all the stats and say, wait a second, Frake
May's played historically the easiest schedule in NFL history, So yeah,
they're going to be thinking about the narrative form Matthew Stafford,
especially if he lights it up in this game, in

(51:35):
the last.

Speaker 2 (51:35):
Game of the year.

Speaker 3 (51:36):
So I'm with chat on the Rams.

Speaker 1 (51:40):
Together forever, Miami and New England. Speaking of Drake May,
the Patriots are eleven and a half point favorites. The
Pats will be playing their starters for how long.

Speaker 2 (51:49):
We don't know. Will Campbell came.

Speaker 1 (51:51):
Off ir this week, by the way, I doubt he'll play,
but he didn't come off I r.

Speaker 2 (51:56):
Like the number feels big.

Speaker 1 (51:58):
It feels like the sort of where you get when
you just beat the Jets by a million points. And
Drake May through five touchdowns. It is not a leading
contender for MVP. But it's not like Miami isn't going
to play its starters and doesn't have an explosive rush
game that can be a weakness of the Patriots. So
feels like a big number to me.

Speaker 4 (52:20):
It feels like a big number. But I said it
last week. I'm not trying to fade this Patriots team.
They just they're just mowing along like the offensive just
a juggernaut. And yes, Quen Years looked better last week
against that Bucks defense. But we've seen this Miami team
when they get up in the cold up in the north,

(52:41):
they just seem to crumble. So we're expecting it to
be very cold up in the Northeast. It's just been cold,
and you know, it's too early in the week to
know if there's any type of weather coming. But once again,
if you have to make a pick for your pickfull,
I'll take.

Speaker 3 (52:55):
The talalk I guess and I'll take the Patriots.

Speaker 4 (52:57):
But you can hear I really want to avoid this
if I ken, I just I'm like you, I really
don't want to been the pictures of this big of
a number. But I just have no confidence in this
Miami team after a win, going on the road in
the freezing cold, playing against a Patriots team that it
seems like they're going to be playing hard for this one, right,
they still haven't in their back of the amount of
chance to get that one seed. So really really weird

(53:18):
game and a weird number. Like I thought this would
be fourteen. So I am honestly shocked to see ten
and a half's eleven out there on this Patriots team.

Speaker 3 (53:26):
I'll take it. Before it moves up.

Speaker 1 (53:29):
Last game of the season, prime time game, Sunday Night football,
Baltimore visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh Steelers are three and
a half point underdogs. Little surprise this moved up. We
both talked about it on Sunday Night. We both took
the Steelers at plus three. So many sort of narratives

(53:56):
that are regular themes.

Speaker 2 (53:58):
In our show.

Speaker 1 (53:58):
And as we talk about betting the Steelers home underdogs,
Mike Tomlin raw ross spot historically great spot, one of
the best in the history of the NFL as a
head coach at covering this number at home. This game
between the Ravens and the Steelers. Historically the underdog is

(54:21):
covering this game over the past twenty years in these
battles between Harbaugh and Tomlin sixty percent. Add In, we
don't know who's going to be playing quarterback yet for
the Baltimore Ravens. Add In, we don't know who's going
to be quarterback for either of these teams next year
because there's a lot of drama going on in Baltimore
with Lamar Jackson. We don't know what's going to happen

(54:42):
with Aaron Rodgers, so a lot of subplots here. I'm
a little surprised the line moved from three to three
and a half, to be honest, because I still like
the Steelers a lot.

Speaker 4 (54:52):
Simon says, give me this Pittsburgh Steelers team plus three
and a half.

Speaker 3 (54:56):
I want to play a game. Simon says, I am
like you.

Speaker 4 (55:00):
I cannot believe the public and the professionals are coming
in on this Ravens side.

Speaker 2 (55:06):
You know, it's a little weird.

Speaker 4 (55:08):
I once was lost, Chad, I am now found. That's
how I feel about this game. I cannot believe when
I went through our record that we took the Ravens
as a five and a half point favorite Adams, which stupid.

Speaker 3 (55:19):
Yeah, we just were lost and one of.

Speaker 1 (55:22):
Our most egregiously bad decisions in the history of our show, and.

Speaker 3 (55:26):
Just not us.

Speaker 4 (55:26):
We just blindly take this number. That's why I'm making it,
Simon says bro. We have no excuse, we can't avoid it.
We are dug in here on Pittsburgh and I'll give
out the stats. We love these stats so much. I
love them every time I read them. Since two thousand
and five, the underdog in this series thirty twelve and
three against the spread seventy one percent. When Mike Tomlin

(55:47):
is the underdog against horriball he is twenty five seven
and three against the spread.

Speaker 3 (55:54):
You know, it's just it's crazy. We talk all the time.
Chad said it.

Speaker 4 (55:58):
When it's it's above three, which is the key number
in this series. So if it's three or more, the
dog either side the under dog in this series twenty
four five and three against the spread. When it's Tomlin's
team that's the dog, he is fourteen to four and
two against the spread. When it's bigger than three. Come on,
we just have all the trends and we know the matchup.

(56:19):
We know this numbers moved honestly to me because of
the DK like DK not being there. I do think
it's of the move because they're gonna have to find
another way to win. And what I'm gonna hang my
hat on here is Pittsburgh's run defense these last three
four weeks has really been totally different than they were
to start the year. They've really found something They've been
dominant at stopping the run now these last couple of weeks.

Speaker 3 (56:40):
That to me is how you beat this Ramis team.
We've seen it.

Speaker 4 (56:42):
If you can stop King Henry, it doesn't matter if
it's a banged up Lamar, if it's huddly here, it's
it's the run game that makes this thing go here.
So think Pittsburgh Tomlin. This is the exact sphy we
talk about. They pull teams down to the mud at
home late December in the cold, I should say January now,
Chad said it, it's a Tomlin spot.

Speaker 3 (57:01):
Never gonna avoid it.

Speaker 4 (57:03):
Maybe we're missing here, but I do think the numbers
move because the professionals think that DK injury is that
big of a deal. They've moved this now from two
and a half all the way up to three and
a half. But that to me is too much of
a movement. This should never have gotten above three, and
we'll take that value here, like that's a great number
to be getting here on Pittsburgh and what should be
a very close game.

Speaker 3 (57:20):
So talk all the time.

Speaker 4 (57:21):
Even when the Ravens were the best team in football
right winning division, had like thirteen wins, they'd come up
to Pittsburgh here and Pittsburgh would need this win to
get the nine wins for Tomlin. They'd always get it somehow.
So got to take Steelers shore just like last week
we blindly fade the Steelers on that spot against Cleveland.
No different here, you blindly back the Steelers, your long
term winner, taking the steels of the dog here.

Speaker 1 (57:43):
All right, So look, Simon says, is the Steelers plus
three and a half. Chad's choice is the Rams minus seven.
We still got a lot of games that could be
in contention when we get down to it.

Speaker 2 (57:55):
On Thursday.

Speaker 1 (57:55):
We are doing a show Thursday, New Year's Day, January
FIRS will be recording at our normal time.

Speaker 2 (58:04):
We will record, and.

Speaker 1 (58:05):
Then I assume Simon, Matt Mitchell, everyone else listening, we
will all settle in to root for the Indiana Hoosiers
and the Rose Bowl against the Alabama Crimson Tide in
future Las Vegas Raider quarterback Fernanda Mendozo.

Speaker 3 (58:22):
Do you know if to stop your head, I don't
let me check. I remember it opened at what seven?

Speaker 2 (58:28):
Yeah it was.

Speaker 3 (58:29):
I'll look for you.

Speaker 4 (58:29):
But all right, I know I'm biased here, but it
feels like that's the Hoosiers number right there.

Speaker 3 (58:38):
The public is going to be all over Bama plus seven.
So yeah, be careful there if you're trying to fade
the Hoosiers.

Speaker 2 (58:44):
But don't fade the Hoosiers. They're a juggernaut.

Speaker 3 (58:47):
There you go.

Speaker 1 (58:50):
This has been Sharp or Square presented by hard Rock bet.
We are part of the Volume podcast network. We will
be back, like I said on Thursday, we'll zero in
on some of the games. We'll have our head to head,
our brass balls. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.
Like the video, subscribe to the channel, Download us with Spotify,

(59:10):
Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, Subscribe
with this five stars say whatever you want. Feedback is
a gift until next time. Love you.

Speaker 4 (59:20):
This ain't Ray Nitchkei and Dick Buckets and Deacon Jones
over there, So let's start kicking some hass.

Speaker 3 (59:24):
This team is not better US than, not even good

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