Happy New Year, gamblers! Today proud Indiana Hoosier alumnus Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter deep dive into their best bets for Week 18, the final week of the NFL regular season. They tell their fellow New Years bettors their favorite remaining NFL matchups across the board, leading up to their final five against the spread bets in their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/ as our audience competes for a fabulous grand prize trip to South Florida, courtesy of our sponsor Hard Rock Bet!
We also have Simon's weekly Sharp Calls segment, where Simon recaps the conversations he's had with fellow professional gamblers responding to our show earlier this week. NFL betting picks and predictions provided today include their best bets for two blockbuster Saturday games, as Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers battle Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Bucs, before Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks battle Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in prime time. We also hear about the Buffalo Bills against Brady Cook and the New York Jets, in the finale of Buffalo's Highmark Stadium.
The sputtering Kansas City Chiefs play the tanking Las Vegas Raiders, and a brutalized Green Bay Packers team goes on the road versus the Minnesota Vikings. Simon and Chad debate Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens against Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers, Shedeur Sanders and the Cleveland Browns against Joe Burrow and the surging Cincinnati Bengals, as well as Jared Goff and the Lions in a NFC North showdown vs. Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears. And of course we hear about the LA Chargers visiting Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos, and the Miami Dolphins looking to hand MVP frontrunner Drake Maye and the New England Patriots a rare loss. Do the Washington Commanders have anything left to throw at the Philadelphia Eagles? And can the Arizona Cardinals cover against MVP candidate Matt Stafford and the LA Rams? More importantly: will our hosts find more winners for our audience?
Answers to all these, plus picks and predictions for NFL Week 18 including our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, Round Robin parlays, over/under picks, survivor pool picks, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites, parlays, and so much more. #Volume
0:03:00 - START 0:08:00 - SHARP CALLS
0:12:15 - CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCS
0:16:55 - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
0:24:30 - NEW ORLEANS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS
0:28:30 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
0:34:55 - DALLAS COWBOYS VS. NEW YORK GIANTS
0:35:00 - GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
0:37:00 - LA CHARGERS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
0:40:34 - DETROIT LIONS VS. CHICAGO BEARS
0:45:50 - ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. LA RAMS
0:49:50 - BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
0:59:00 - SIMON'S BIGGEST BETS, MONEYLINE PARLAYS, ROUND ROBINS
--
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We
are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the
show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys
pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always
by my BFF, my companion, Mike byre professional Better, my
co host, Simon Hunter Heado, Simon Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Happy year to you, my friend, how you doing.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Happy year to you, Happy New Year to Matt Mitchell,
Happy new Year to all of our friends and listeners
and watchers who have spent the season with us, who
found us anew in the Sharper Square world, who came
with us from the old world. We are incredibly appreciative
(00:52):
and lucky as we kick off twenty twenty six. Good
Lord twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
Yeah, it doesn't sound real yet. I definitely had one
of those moments last night. We were just saying out loud.
I turned to my friend and I said, it is
weird every time you hear that we're closer now to
twenty fifty than we are to the year two thousand,
or the year two thousand. Doesn't Oh my god, the
year twenty fifty sounds like a different lifetime. So it's
kind of a mind fuck right now thinking about that.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Twenty fifty is cosmic. Dude, I don't even know how
that well, let's see twenty fifty. I can't even say
how old i'll be, Simon, you might be. You might
be doing this show on your own. By that.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
I doubted chat. I keep saying people like you that
live on bird feed, they live to one.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
Hundred years, twenty fifty.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
In all my cloud arteries.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
I'm not even gonna say. All I know is that
I'm not even gonna say twenty fifty eighty. I can't
even I can't even see the number. I won't be eighty,
but I won't be that far off.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
I mean, you really want to. I'll be your age basically.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Dude, you'll be older than me.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
I'll basically be right around sixty.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
Yeah, but I'm not sixty.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
I know. It's just fun making fun of you.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
That's hurtful. Those are hurtful things to say as we
kick off the new year, as BFFs, Hey listen today,
no matter where you are, no matter what you're doing,
we are all hoosiers. That's all I'm going to say,
except I'm also going to say, for those who are
like grappling with Indiana's college football dominance, welcome to the club.
(02:45):
If you're joining us in Who's your nation? You're wondering
what a hoosier is? I wish I could tell you.
I took an entire class on it when I went
to Indiana University. I still don't know. It could be
some nickname from a poem a guy in Indiana wrote.
It could be a saying from Jolly Old England, Simon,
(03:08):
about like depicting strength and woodsman. It could be because
a guy who owned a lot of land in the
state of Indiana was named John Hoosier, and everyone who
worked for him called themselves Hoosiers. It doesn't matter today, Simon.
You're a hoosier. Matt Mitchell is a Hoosier. I'm a hoosier.
(03:28):
Go I you fight, Fight, Fight?
Speaker 2 (03:33):
What about Chad? The trend of off of bye in
the college playoffs do not like.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
What I've seen so far, with the teams getting the buys.
It's not a good trend at all, Simon. We saw
it again last night with Ohio State losing to Miami.
Great game by Miami. Hopefully Kurt Signetti gets to repeat
the words of Miami coach that he said last night.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
But hats off to our guys for being some tough
ass suns of bitches.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
Tough ass sons of bitches, that's what we are for
doing a week eighteen episode on Thursday on New Year's
Day in the morning, because we are dedicated, we're professional.
We're going to do our stinking job. Tough ast sons
of bitches.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Yeah, we bus should be up on a couch right
now watching stranger Things, getting ready for this college football day.
But instead, the never ending wheel that is the NFL
continues to roll. My friend, we gotta get to it.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
No, Simon, we should be on the peloton working off
the olive oil cake that we ate last night. All right, reminders,
subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple, Potzi, Spotify. Let's
get into this every week. We give our picks every week,
even in the holiday season. Simon's fellow professional betters, the
wise guys are going to give us some feedback, So
(04:50):
let's get to it. Let's hear some sharp calls.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Have to answer this boat, all right, telephone ring maybe lead, Yeah,
there's always Let's start where we differ. The pros absolutely
love Chicago. Most guys I've talked to have taken a
position on Chicago even like Chicago at the minus three,
So they totally think Chicago's are a much better team
(05:18):
than Detroit right now. A team that is playing for
that two seed. They think they're gonna massively motivated and
they've been betting it just thinking that exact way. So
that one actually pretty pretty shocked me. I thought that
Troy would be the pro side, the public would be
over the Bears, but it seems like the public and
the pros are lining up on this Bears team another game.
I think it's just not on our radar, or maybe
(05:38):
I'm just missing it. I wanted to be on Dallas.
Every pro I've talked to, they love the Giants here
in this spot. They love Dart and what he can
do offensively against a Cowboys defense. It's just atrocio, especially
against running quarterbacks. So I found it really interesting that
so many pros that's gonna be a close one. And yeah,
that number is a couple of times touched four again,
just got to mainly bet back down to three and
a half in a lot of books. So really interesting
(06:01):
a game that I might simply just be missing Seattle Seahawks.
I cannot believe the pros are hammering Sam Darnold as
a favorite all on the road and it must win
to get the one C type of game, But they are.
I mean, most guys I talked to really like that
spot and they just think this four NS team is
truly a house of cards. How much longer could party
(06:21):
in this offense, prop up this foreign others team is
kind of their view of it. And if you're looking
for a team that maybe can stop this juggerna have
an offense to the four and horows, it would be
the Seattle defense, right that's been so dominant on the road,
so really interesting game where I thought all this would
be lined up on them and it's pretty split. But
what we did get right Panthers, like we talked about
(06:41):
all all week. You know that came down for three
and a half to three now down to two and
a half. That's a really smart sharp side and I'm
glad the pros are on it because I was a
little worried when I saw how much money was pouring
on that Bucks team. It's like, what am I missing here?
But I think we see this number keep dropping. It
makes me feel better is our position. And you know,
another game we haven't spent too much time on, but
(07:03):
I think is an interesting move by the professionals is
that Chargers game. The pros have just been hammering the
Chargers and the number really has not budged. So that's
gonna be an interesting topic to talk about. Where are
the books simply just missing it? Are they overrating too
much the backups for this Chargers team, and they're clearly
taking a stand here the books. And you know, I
(07:26):
don't think the public this is a game they're ever
gonna mess with. I truly think this is just a
professionals versus the books type of game. Right the most,
you know, Joe public betters, they're not gonna bet too
big on the NFL this weekend. So a lot of
the money when you see big money simply on one
side most times, if it's a game like this, like
a twelve and a half points spread, this is gonna
be professional money. It's not going to be the type
(07:46):
of game the public tuch touches here. So I'm really
interested where that number goes check because like I said,
the books have taken a stand now they're holding firm
on that twelve and a half game. We love Saints
plus three plus three and a half, It's I knew
that would be the pro side. It's gonna be interesting
what happens now. We just got word before the show
Olave is going to miss this game. See where that
(08:07):
number goes. Maybe we get fours four and a half,
So I know there's gonna be some pros on the
other side of this. It's just then they basically took
Atlanta two and a half or they've not touched it since,
so it really is just if you're getting the three
three and a half, that's the professional side in my
opinion on the Saints. And you know, the last one
we talked a little bit about at Minnesota. We've seen
(08:28):
that number. I got a couple of books get up
to seven and a half. It keeps coming back down,
so you know there is some a little bit of resistance.
But I hope people listen. Got the five and a half,
got the six and a half on Minnesota. That was
definitely the sharp side. I don't think we see it
go below seven at this point, so it's a wonky week.
I'll have maybe a little bit more calls come Sunday morning.
But just with the holiday, it throws it off a
(08:48):
little bit because most pros I know espos of your
professional groups, they're really focused on the college the college
bowl games and the playoffs. Once that once those games
are over, that's when they start taking larger positions come
NFL Saturday and Sunday. So I'll definitely have more info
for Sunday morning.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
Hi, So everyone check it out Sunday morning. We're on
the air. YouTube watch it, Sharper Square. I'm really excited
about this Carolina game. We've been hitting it since it
was three and a half last Sunday. They are now
two and a half at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Simon,
the Carolina Panthers are going to be our brass balls
(09:27):
Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bet you know
what it takes brass balls. To me, it came down
to this and the Chargers, And I'm glad you brought
up the Chargers and Sharp Calls because I do want
to talk about them later in the show. Really intriguing
matchup to me, But I feel like we would have
(09:49):
been doing our listeners a poor service, a disservice if
we didn't just ride with the Carolina Panthers in a
spot where they are coming off a loss, they are
on the road, they can fulfill their destiny that we
have been predicting for two years of winning the dreadful
(10:11):
Nobody cares about it, NFC South, Like, how do we
not stick to our guns and go with the Carolina Panthers,
especially on a trend. Three weeks ago, we're on them,
two weeks ago, we're off them. This week we're on them.
Let's just be consistent. Let's do everyone service and be
on the right side of history with the Carolina Panthers
(10:33):
plus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Yeah, we love betting history as well. Just the uniqueness
of this right, this will be give all the stat
one more time. Carolina seven zero against the spread after
a straight up loss, covering over almost twelve points per
game in this exact spot. Since nineteen ninety, no team
has ever gone eight to oh against the spread after
a straight up loss. So, like you said, we're betting
(10:55):
on history here, can never avoid it. Really unique spot
with this Panthers team. Yeah, I really found it interesting
just about when I gave out that home record with Baker,
just about how bad he is in this exact spot
at home and the fact that you know in his
career five and fourteen at home and against divisional foes,
(11:15):
since he's moved to all these different teams, so since
twenty twenty two and twelve against the spread against home
divisional foes. So as a favorite, we talk we just
do not back Baker. We like to fade Baker. We
like to back them as a dog. Little did we
know he would be going through one of the most
historical worst streaks ever against the spread. We have made
money luckily off of it. But my guy, looking back,
there were so many signs there. This was just a
(11:37):
crumbling house. And the start of the year they were
so hot, they were so good to us because we
were winning on them. I think we're not late to
the party with this Bucks team, but you know, we've
been a little hesitant in certain matchups to fade them.
Here we're both a line where we're like, okay, we
want to fade Baker. We really want it back to Panthers,
and we said this probably should be closer to a pick.
There's not much that separates these two teams at this standpoint.
(11:59):
So the fact that you're still getting the Baker feels
like tax Like there's still the books. You're still giving
Baker that point point and a half because he is
the better quarterback. I think we're gonna still here like
the Panthers, you know, coming off fifty four yards by
Bryce Young. Yeah, like I said, this is this isn't
this exact thing he does? He plays possible, they do.
They're terrible one week. The next week he's throwing for
(12:20):
what was a three fifty against the Rams like a jugger.
Not you just it's just so up and down this season.
So I love that were end of the season with
our team, the Panthers give it to us plus two
and a half.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
You know, Simon, we had some friends over last night,
and I got a lot of comments this week from
listeners about your immediate reaction when I said Rico Tautle
needs seven yards and you're like, no, no, I can't
do a whole show where you're talking.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
About this seven yards.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Yeah, seven yards. I just want to point out I
did bet ric o'dowdell twenty five plus yards rushing and
parlay it with ric o'dowdell his anytime touchdown, because the
anytime touchdown odds are about plus one seventeen. If you
parlay it with his twenty five plus yards, you're getting
it for plus one thirty. So that was my point.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Yeah, I had I think I had two different people
walk up to me and say, hey, Rico Dado has
got a bad hamstring. Might not play this week.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
He's playing. He's he's full participant this morning.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
If the difference is seven yards, to make what is
a million dollars in incentives, you have to play it.
Take the shot. Yeah, you have to at least get
two or three carres. T I get seven yards. That
might be a stretch, but seven yards he got.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
I love that people were coming up to you in
the book, Well.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Tell me this guy's hurt. Yeah, I just yea.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
All that is just great. God bless our listeners the
freaking best. Hey, Matt Mitchell, I didn't put this in
the script, but we should throw up Seattle and San
Francisco just because Simon mentioned it, because I didn't think
we were going to play it in the contest. We can't, right,
It's right, we can't play it in the contest. So
like I'm a little surprise too. I understand sort of
(14:03):
where the wise guys are coming from, and We talked
a little bit about this on Tuesday. They are very
clear distinctions here. Either you believe in Kyle Shanahan as
an underdog and you believe in what he's been able
to prove with his team at home as an underdog,
or you believe in Mike McDonald and what he's been
able to prove with this defense on the road and
being so dominant. So I understand why the wise guys
(14:26):
are backing the Seahawks. At the end of the day,
I think you and I both just feel better backing
Brock Purty and Kyle Shanahan than ultimately backing Sam Donald.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Yeah, and we talked this is another historical game, right
since nineteen ninety, only one other time as the forty
nine ers had a one percentage above seventy five percent
have been a home dog, and it's very unique. I
went back and looked it up twenty eleven twenty twelve
playoffs Drew Brees Saints four nine Ers one thirty six
to thirty two. So not much historical data we have
(14:56):
to go off of, but Dad just shows you that,
you know, it's a unique spot for this Niners team.
They're not really dogs at home and I gave you
all those crazy brock pretty stats in his career against
the Seahawks team in his career six and one straight
up when he's been under three points or less, he's
three and zero straight up and against the spread at home.
You know, we just there's something about this fortn Irist team,
(15:19):
especially at home, and knowing that this is kind of
the way it's been with Shanahan. Like we talked before
the year, we both like the Niners to be the
one seed at plus nine hundred in the NFC, and
it really was because their schedule was easy. But we've
talked all the time about the up and down of
the Niners. They're just the seesaw team. They come in
fourth place, the next year, they come in first place.
(15:40):
They get healthy. The next year, they have a ton
of injuries. This year they've had the injuries. I mean,
that's why Shannon's up for Coach of the Year at
number two right now in the voting, or I should
send the odds because they've done it with all these injuries.
I mean, it's incredible what the Niners have battle to
deal with those injuries. So I get why the pros
are taking their position in the Seahawks. Right, I blindly
bet the Seahawks team all year on the road because
(16:01):
they're just a covering machine. The coach gets this defense up,
you know. Mike McDonald's also I think maybe number three
and number four and Coach of the year odds just
because it's been incredible, right, Yeah, when he got his
quarterback and really has changed his defense. And at the
end of the day, me, you were a line chat.
The reason we like the sport and ours team is
we just do not trust Sam Darnold and you've seen it.
(16:23):
The numbers back it up. These last five six weeks,
he's been very disappointing. I think he's number one or
number two in the league in fumbles. He's just been machine. Yeah,
he's been really up and down, and the defense has
kind of bailed him out and saved them. So you're
basically if you're back in theoxy, you are simply back
in that defense. And I think we're both more comfortable
back in purty the Sneyers offense, and they've been there,
(16:44):
done that, right, Perty has been to Super Bowls. He's
lived up to these kind of moments in his in
his career, so I know it's crazy unique spot getting
the niners of the dog. I do just feel like
we're the suckers here. But like I said, it's I
think the pros are missing this one. Back in the
Seaks team, I think this is finally time the hop
off the train if we kind of got away with
one last week when they were seven and a half
my favorites.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
Speaking of suckers, back in the old eighteen hundred days,
when Indiana was first defining itself as the Hoosier State,
they called their border rivals in Illinois the suckers. True story,
(17:24):
thank you for your attention to that matter.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
My God, I'm gonna let you have your moment though,
because you're right Hoosiers. You guys are number one right now. Baby.
Today you might not end that way, but today, as
we said here, right now, it's.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
I'm going to enjoy it. Listen, people dismiss the Midwest.
They don't understand the lords and culture of the Midwest.
You know, I'm married to a woman who's from New
York City, who grew up in Staten Island, who looks
at everything as a flyover state, even though she went
to Michigan. But she sees that as like and a
(17:59):
not Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Matt Mitchell's current home state. Those
states don't matter to people, but they matter to me. Okay,
so today we are going to give them their due.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Chris Farley changed my opinion about the Midwest. That's why
I will say that, Man, I did not think there's
a sense of humor in that cluster. But Chris Farley,
you opened my eyes.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
It's all sense of humor. It's all kindness and sense
of humor in the Midwest. New Orleans plus three and
a half at Atlanta actually moved down to three now
even with the Olave news, because everybody has been piling
in from the wise guy perspective on the Saints, and
as you noted, this is a wise guy week. It's
(18:43):
not a huge public week. But man, Atlanta has been
playing great. To me, this is really about Tyler Schuckrookie
of the Year game, and I don't love. I don't
love that A Lave is out and we'll know so
much more about Tetero McMillan, who's now the odds on
favorite from the day before, could have a huge impact
(19:04):
on what happens with Tyler Shuck.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
Yeah, and it's brutal losing alive. Like he's just been
brutal so good. It feels like every time they draw
up some type of play for him to get one
on one and he's just automatic. Feels like in the
end zone was shucked. They've just had such great chemistry,
especially down the stretch here. And you know, maybe, like
I said, maybe I'm too biased, too close to I'm
just happy at least see that pros are actually betting
(19:28):
the same side with me, because not gonna lie. I
got a little word when I got up to three
and a half, I go, oh my god, now they're
giving us the hook on this. I could not believe
that Kirk was now minus three and a half at home.
But Kirk got to give him props, Like going through
the tape watching these last couple of weeks, you know
he's instill these Kirk games where he just is so
immobile in the pocket, he looks so totally lost against
(19:50):
the right type of defense. But overall, I got to
give him a ton of props the way he's been
playing down a stretch here, and I think he's earned
the right to be a starter next season. Might not
be for Atlanta, but some team. You got to give
this guy a chance at this point, like he totally
has come back from this Achilles injury where you know,
last year we talked about he couldn't push off his
back foot. I watch a tip. He's pushing off that
back foot, no problem. He's stepping into throws really good
(20:13):
throws downfield. So matchup wise for us with the Saints team,
what I'm trying to hang my hat on is what
we talked a little bit about is you know, they're
actually pretty good against the past. Their weakness has been
the rush. And as much as love and everything Robinson's
getting in this, you know what he just did in
the two prime time games back to back the last
(20:34):
time they played, the Saints did really well at bottling
up Jon Robinson. Like they're they're a team that I've
so they see him twice a year and they have
so in his entire career. You know, we always talk
to divisional teams. They have a different read on these
in these type of games. So all right, I do
think there are ways for them, the Saints to attack defensively,
and we've already talked about shuck. People might think he's
dead in these games, and he just always finds a
(20:56):
way to come back. He's been that way since he's
been a starter, where you know, he just keeps on
slinging it. And that game against Tennessee where they're down thirteen,
they never looked worried. He kept pushing the ball down,
feeling obviously we got lucky, right they were kind of dead,
and all of a sudden, the war got strip sacked
for that touchdown that brought spark to that Saints team.
But you know, the Saints have always found a way
since Huck's become the starter, to find ways to win.
(21:17):
So U plus three and a half with this kid
and this offensive way they've been moving the ball, I
feel like we always have the opportuny to get the
back door here. So I really, I really was hoping
that maybe I could talk myself out of this one
if it's stay at two and a half, but the
fact that it's three and a half never gonna avoid it.
Love this number for this Saints team, and they've just
been absolutely covering machine down the stretch here.
Speaker 1 (21:37):
Simon. I think what you're saying about Kirk Cousins when
you watch them on film right now, and the way
he's able to push off is.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
You like that.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Do you get it?
Speaker 2 (21:47):
I do, But I thought it was gonna know other
hoosier reference. I'm kind of heartbroken. I thought you're gonna
bring it back to the Who's years.
Speaker 1 (21:53):
I'll find a way.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
You needn't.
Speaker 1 (21:55):
Don't you worry. It's twenty twenty six, my friend, new year,
the name sense of humor. Don't worry about me because
I'm so old. I can't change, right, can.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
Change your body. DNA totally changes every seven years. I
believe it, totally reed. Does you can change that? You
choose not to change. Unfortunately that's the problem.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
Well, now you really do sound like my wife. Cleveland
at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a seven and a half point favorite.
I don't see how we're walking away from this. Like
the in the last forty eight hours, I love this
game even more. I might bet some altlines in Cincinnati.
I just think they're gonna go out there and fling it.
(22:39):
They don't give a shit. They can say they're building
on next year, it doesn't matter. Joe Burrow just wants
to go out and have a good time and play
some ball and end the year on a high note
and sling it to Jamar Chase and forty two. That's
my call.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
Now, did something happen that made you like it more?
You just just like it because you like it more.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
I like it because I like him.
Speaker 2 (23:01):
I don't know if I miss miss something, but yeah,
I'm right there with you. Like I talked, this is
the exact type of game that Cincinnati just goes all out,
plays hard. Their offense has been rolling. I know they
did have that horrible game, Like you said, Joe Burrow
was contemplating a life and if he's happier or not,
and then went out and totally put up zero against
a Ravens defense that has been suspect all season. Since then,
(23:23):
he's you know, he's been lighted up and that's just
what we expected Joe Burrow. When he's got Chase Higgins
both playing, it's an offense that's an absolute juggernaut. The
only thing that's been missing was the blocking. And you know,
I keep talking about the offensive line. You're gonna look
at the numbers since Joe Flacco took over, they've been
at top fifteen some weeks, top ten offensive line of
pass protection, which is just blowing my mind when I
(23:45):
look at this team, and it really has been the interior,
like the guards have been playing better. Everything just really
impressive how the Bengals have turned around that offensive line.
And if you're a Bengals fan, maybe another thing you
could picture Joe Burrow to'd be like you got to
come back next year. Right the offensive line we've totally rebuilt.
It's better where it felt like two weeks ago his
foot was kind of out the door, like he was
(24:06):
leaving it open to be like I can move on
potentially next year where I think he'd come back. This
exact type of game where we talked about chat. This
is a type of game they'll win big to kind
of launch off into the offseason of like see momentum
we ended the season. This is what we can be.
And I'll give out the stab one more time. This
Browns team off a straight up win since last year,
(24:26):
zero to six against the spread, losing those games by
almost eleven points per game. So they're not covering by
eleven points per game, I should say, so, they've just
been absolutely terrible. It's exact spot. They're just a team
that does not not to handle winning and that we
joke all the time, but it really is a young
team at its core, right this Browns team. They nailed
this draft. I mean I went back and look, they
(24:48):
probably coming to this year, they're probably have my highest
grade for what they drafted this past draft class, but
not the quarterback. But I've already talked about Sanders has
been great as like the worst quarterbacks since he's taken
over as a starter, even worse than Geno Smith somehow,
which shocked me when I looked at the stats. But
you feel like this is a total game where he
just cannot keep up with Joe Brown that offense. So
(25:08):
I'm with Chad, give me the Cincinnati Bengals minus seven
and a half.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
The real question, Simon, And I want Matt Mitchell to
note this. I want him to remember this. I want
him to play this when we get to August and
we're doing our team by team in division breakdowns and
we're doing our quarterback rankings. Are we suckers? Are we
looking at Joe Burrow and his last six games and saying,
oh my god, the guy was dominant and this offensive
(25:32):
line was good. And are we thinking the value on
the Bengals is going to be too high to win
the division because they're going to be playing a relatively
bad schedule, and are we going to all of a
sudden be going all in in value? Are we going
to be as the Hoosiers yet, like used to say
about their friends on their border state, are we going
(25:54):
to be Illinois suckers? And are we going to go
all in backing Joe Burrow in the Bengals. I want
us to remember this. I want us to be smart
about this. I don't want us to get crazy, because
something's always going to happen to screw up that bet.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
Well, I'll say this. My one buddy turning me and said,
this is the only division of football that they could
have all four teams have a different starter come next
year Week one, with all the drama, with so more
what we've heard from Joe Burrow, uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers,
and the unknown obviously of the Browns and what they're
going to do. And I was like, I, you're right,
I've probably never even thought about That's probably the only
(26:29):
division of my lifetime that's ever been in that unique
spot of having all four new starters come Week one
next year.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Two years ago, this was the most competitive division in football. Remember,
all teams had season win totals of eight and a
half or higher. Yeah, it's like insane how quickly the
league changes Dallas a three and a half point favorite
at the New York Giants. We are very public on this.
We both like Dallas. You're explaining the wise guys, like
(26:57):
the way Jackson Dark can move the ball around. Definitely
on the public side here because we do have reverse
line movement with the public coming in on the Cowboys,
but the line moving in the direction of the Giants
doesn't have to get into the contest for me. But
I'm not seeing it with the Giants.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
And then I hate these step of ones because it's
like either side, I feel like I'm leaving money on
the table where it's like the line movements scared me
enough where I'm not putting as much in the Dallas
and it's making me rethink where maybe I'm overlooking this
Giants team too much and this is probably a Giant spot.
But I told you in my life is a better
with Dak. I blindly bet him in this exact spot
right when he's playing a bad divisional team below five hundred.
(27:40):
Dak beats the crap buy of these type of teams
in the exact spot. He just seems to win these
games big. You know, maybe once again there's something I'm missing,
Maybe there's a cold front or a storm coming in
on Sunday. I don't think there is. Like I checked
the weather. It looks pretty good. I just don't know
why Dak being outdoors in the cold or the line
moving as much as it has off. I just don't
(28:01):
know what it's moved off. Right, it's moved off professional money.
So you know there's nothing going on injury wise for
either team. Right, was the Cowboys cut Digs or it did?
Speaker 1 (28:12):
Said with the Packers Travon Diggs.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
Yeah, so I don't know. It's it's like he doesn't matter.
He wasn't doing anything for the Cowboys anyway. So really
bizarre line movement here, and like like Chad said, we
know it's the public side with Cowboys, but it's it's
Dak and Dallas against a bad team. Like I said,
this is a long term winner. Taking fish with Dak
usually wins these games pretty big. So he's another guy
(28:35):
that you know, it's not his fault. His team's been
as bad as they were this year. He's he's has
great numories. He's performed basically every week he's had a
couple letdown games, so that's usually against really good defenses.
That's so much against the Giants team that yes they
have a pass rush, but that secondary is just terrible,
so terrible, you expect him to throw over the field.
With Ceedee, Lamb and Pickens obviously playing for that new contract.
Speaker 1 (28:55):
Green Bay and Minnesota, we talked about this one has
moved from five and a half on Sunday night when
we talked about it, said you got to grab it
to seven. We don't know who the Packers quarterback is
going to be. We do know that they recently signed
Desmond Ridder to the practice squad and we expect them
to rest a lot of starters. So that's why this
(29:16):
game has moved from five and a half to seven.
The only reason it isn't moving more is because Max
Brosmer is the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings as far
as we know. So like in terms of value, in
terms of contest, I mentioned it only because of the
Desmond Ridder news. I don't think there's a play to
be had here if you are getting this number at seven.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
Yeah, and I'm obviously investing in the Vikings, but if
you don't have a single penny invested in the Vikings.
You have no bet on this game. A couple of
books have popped green Bay seven and a half. I mean,
with all the unknown, that to me is the position
you want to be on at this point. You're getting
now a touchdown and a half where it could be
Malik Willis, which is that's a big deal. Like if
he is a player now, if it's as a rider, obviously,
(30:01):
I think you're deader than Debt. I can't see him
moving the ball that well, especially after one week of
practice against this Vikings defense. But yeah, it's a weird
game because the numbers moved too much to me, Like
I like the Vikings. You can still get anything under seven.
But like I said, a bunch of bookser popping seven
and a half. I just I cannot give out the
Vikings with a third string quarterback at seven and a
(30:21):
half without knowing who the green Bay quarterback is. If
it's the third or fourth string guy, Yeah, I have
no problem taking Minnesota if you want a ton of points.
But yeah, this is what's tough about this week. The
lines moved so much just because the pros are hitting
it so early. And yeah, this game I really am
shocked to see you getting up to seven and a half.
Hopefully like you, you know, listen to the show. You
(30:45):
were able to get the five and a half on Minnesota,
even the six and a half we gave it on Tuesday.
But yeah, at this point, the number to me is
we have too much for me to really give out
the Vikings on minus seven LA Chargers.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
We talked about it twelve and a half point underdogs
at Denver. I'm shocked this one hasn't moved to thirteen.
I was really hoping it would because I wanted to
bet it at thirteen. One book actually has it, A
very public book has it at eleven and a half.
But like, this is an imminently intriguing matchup to me
(31:21):
because the Charger's defense is still good, and that's who's
going to be defending against Bo Nicks. I don't talk
about unknowable. Why is Trey Lance to me a ten
point difference from Justin Herbert. I don't know that he
should be, and so I think he presents a dynamic
with his legs that's a little bit different than what
(31:43):
the Broncos have been able to prepare for. So it
just feels like it's way too high to me.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Yeah, I actually went in luck to see what is
the difference just from my model, and honestly, it's right
around that jet. I think, yeah, I had it a
nine point difference. So some of that likes, you know,
shit on Herbert because it's fun because his fans think
he's something that he's not, which is.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
Top five quarterback.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Yeah. I think he's a good quarterback, just not top
five quarterback. But I told you this is all pros,
Like this is just simply a pros versus the book
type of game. And yeah there's hard rock, just move
to twelve while we're doing a live. So clearly there's
still money coming on the charters even late. But I
just want to let people don't be scared off, Like
(32:26):
you look at all the splits, you're gonna see all
the tickets, all the money on the charters team. Like
I said, I think it's simply just professionals. I don't
still know anyone Joe public messing this game. Less they're throwing,
you know, the Broncos in a five and a half
teaser or taking the Broncos money line. That just I
just cannot see the public line up whe there's other
games are gonna want to bet the Broncos have disappointed
right as a favorite. I've talked about Nick's season two
and nine is a favorite against the spread. He's just
(32:47):
struggled in this spot. And you know, Chad, Chad talked
about a little bit here with Trey Lance. It's it
is a obviously a step down from Herbert, but the
legs I feel like mitigate a lot of it. Well,
you've seen Herbert do so well. Obviously he's going to
passing the ball. Herbert has bailed them out a ton
with his legs, and that's what it's gonna happen a
lot here with Trey Lance. He's going to be on
(33:08):
the run a ton. And shockingly saw the Chargers are
going to play a lot of their starters from their
offensive line just because those guys need work. Like if
you look at the grades, they're basically thirty second, thirty
first and almost ever Yeah, category blocking wise, and you
know they obviously need to work in the past block
and run blocking. This is the perfect thing to do
it against. The Broncos have one of the best fronts
(33:29):
in all of football. So Trey Lance, he's gonna be
running for his life. But like Chad just said, this
feels like a little bit too much of a movement
with the Herbert news, Like, if it was Herbert in
this game, what is this a three point two and
a half point type of spread? Ten points feels like
a lot. So if you do hear this and you
can'tet a twelve and a half, I would grab because
I do think the pros keep betting this down. And
(33:51):
like Chad said, there's one book already shown eleven and
a half. I think a couple of books will follow
suit as the week goes along.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
Here, Keenan Allen a lot of incentives in this game.
I don't know if he's going to be playing, but
if he does, look for those Keenan Allen props, folks,
because if there's anything that there that's like, it could
be the perfect scenario. Like he's playing. They don't really
have anything to lose, so just sling the ball. Find
(34:18):
a way to get Keenan Allen his seven hundred and
fifty grand and incentives. If he has six plus receptions,
take a look, it's more than seven yards. I'll tell
you that much. Detroit plus three at Chicago Caleb Williams
is two hundred and seven yards away from being the
first Chicago Bear ever to get four thousand passing yards
(34:42):
in a season. Ben Johnson was asked about this in
his past conference and he said he thought it was
an arbitrary number. Who cares? Reporters laughed and said, you
must be new here, because everyone here cares quite a bit.
I looked at Caleb's two year stats through week seventeen
(35:04):
in his second year, forty five touchdown passes and only
twelve picks. So last night, my buddy who was over
asked me while we were watching the game, the Miami
Ohio State game, if you were to redraft the twenty
twenty four quarterback draft, what would you do. I still
had Caleb number one, and I and I Drake made
(35:26):
number two.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
Yeah, we all overreact, right. I think Jane Daniels was
the unanimous number one pick coming to this yes, from
that draft. So yeah, it's just I saw people are saying,
is this the greatest QB draft ever? A draft that
I think Jane Daniel's the only one with the actual
playoff win. So it's just we like the crown them early.
That's what we do here. We'd like the crown them early,
(35:49):
but I'd never wear it. I said from the get go,
Caleb was my number one guy. I mean one of
my favorite shows ever was I think it was we
had on Seth Rollins was trying to talk you and
Seth Rolind is down about getting rid of Justin Fields
and how it's a good thing and Caleb Williams is
a million times better in sets of the Upside, And
it's just funny looking back right now, It's like there's
(36:11):
no question. Right ones are proven winner that can make
the big time throw. The other one is a crazy
athlete that can never find a way to win games.
So years, yeah, Caleb is just you see why he's
you know, the guy was hyped up in high school
Seth wickershamptoas his dad had him getting interview prepped when
he was in high school getting ready for talking to
(36:31):
the media for college in the NFL. Like, this kid
always has been the guy. The question was always going
to be can he be a leader of men? Can
this guy lead mint? Can guys play hard for him
through a whole season? Does he have that type of
personality type? And you've seen it now he is what
we always talk about right. You need a quarterback be
the type of alpha guy. He seems like he is it.
You know, that game last week really was shocking. I
(36:55):
just couldn't believe how great Caleb played in a game
that had just the same amount of press should get
the one seed. So I am not shocked talking about
this game to see the pros coming on this Bears team. Right.
They have been what we've talked about all season. They
play teams close, they always find ways to win late,
and that's just their identity, right. They're just a slug
it out type of team, and they have something the
(37:15):
Lions don't have, which is a run game, Like let's
break it down for real, this Lion's team. They can
now fall back on the run game like they have
in the past. A lot of these games have fallen
onto golf shoulders where this Bears team and they need
to pick up four or five chunks to give you know,
a third and five or second and five. To Caleb,
they've been great to put them in that position. The
Lions have not been the same. I do think that
(37:37):
is why so many pros think that this is the
difference here. The Bears team will always be in a
better position. But I think me and Chi I have
talked a little bit about this Bears team. We love them,
but as a three point favorite, that's where I have
to draw the line. This is a team, like I talk,
they play close games. This Lions team, as bad as
they've looked, there's still the number two, number three offense
in all of football. There's still a team that has
(37:57):
moved the ball. They've just been so let down by
their defense. So really unique spot, right, a really really
unique spot in the sense that a couple of weeks
ago the Lions were probably minus one here on the road,
and the number has moved about four and a half
points five points now because the Bears have been playing
so well down the stretch of the lines, they've fallen
(38:18):
off the cliff. I mean that last loss, I mean
could be more embarrassing. That's why the public, yeah, totally
out on them, right that.
Speaker 1 (38:25):
That's, by the way, why I'm on this game is
how bad that game was that last game. Like, I'm
fading the Bears brilliant and I'm betting into the Lions
complete and total failings, which.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
Again to me, is scary because this type of year,
I really do think you are who you are, Like
the Lions are exactly who they are if you go
through and you look these last couple of weeks, Now
this is who they are. They've totally faltered here and
fallen apart, and it's really golf. Golf has just been
absolutely terrible with the turnovers, holding on the ball too long,
like it just feel like all of a sudden, he
is zero pocket work and it's like he doesn't know
(39:00):
there's a blitz coming. He's about to get smacked in
three seconds. All of it. Golf has been so bad.
But like you just said, this is the lowest we've
been able to buy this Lions team. And I don't know,
four years with Campbell, like this is just feels like
this is low as a guess since we bet on
them when they were what zero to eight and they
come out pulled out that one against the Minnesota Vikings.
So it's been a long time with this Lions team.
(39:22):
And yeah, it's really been to me about the numbers.
So we'll rob the books. The books are going to
destway need the Lions come Sunday, and that's a position
I'm happy to be in. So grabbed the three. We'll
see if we get lucky in three and a halfs
a couple of three and a halfs pops. But while
we're doing to show Live hard Rock, just what to
two and a half. So there is some pro money
coming on this Lions team. Now.
Speaker 1 (39:41):
Finally, Arizona the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are seven
and a half point favorites. It's ticked up from seven
to to seven and a half since I made it
Chad's choice talk about you are who you are, and
maybe I was leaning into a two hard for the Lions,
but I'm definitely buying into a team that had a
(40:04):
dreadful first half in prime time and then nearly won
the game in the second half with the guy who
probably should be the MVP and Matthew Stafford going against
a team that really is who we think they are
in the Arizona Cardinals. It's at seven, it's moved up
to seven and a half. Still good with it, still
(40:26):
like it. Still want to put it in the contest
Los Angeles Rams Fight Fight fight.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
Yeah, and Arizona just looks like one of those teams
that all these guys had booked their vacation. They're done,
They're totally cooked, you know. Last week saw some fight.
I think they had this crazy, crazy touchdown where Cincinaty
couldn't tackle. And also it was like a fourteen to
fourteen point game. The final score is thirty seven to fourteen,
Like Cincinnati just totally whooped and opening up on the
(40:56):
rest of the game. And we've gone through it. Every
game they've just gotten blown out. Even Atlanta beat them
by a touchdown. I think they beat him twenty six nineteen.
Speaker 1 (41:04):
Yeah, they just like they they they they couldn't compete anymore.
Like the second half of the year. They just stop
being able to keep the games that were close in
the first half of the year within contention and they
just get blown out and they get blown out late.
Speaker 2 (41:19):
And the last time they played. Speaking of a reaction,
the ramsay this same exact team, whereas in Arizona's a
minus nine and a half point favorite. So they're yeah,
the numbers moved against them now that they're at home.
Speaker 1 (41:34):
Makes no sense exactly.
Speaker 2 (41:35):
It just shows how the public and general puck overreacts
to it. So this is gonna be a huge need
for the book. But every week over it plays against
the Arizona's gonna be in need. Obviously, but I'm with Jet.
It was an exact type of game that they need
to get right in McVeigh. You know it's not gonna
be an easy week of practice, right, It's gonna be
that really hell a week. They need this. They're gonna
need to show up offensively and touch a little bit
(41:56):
of the staff for in MVP stuff. There's no way
they don't hear that stuff inside the line. There's no
way they don't hear that. Yeah, he's now not the favorite,
and I'm sure he's seen that. I think he has
forty two touchdown passes. Basically, if he throws for three
touchdown passes, he'll have forty five touchdown passes and under
ten interceptions. Only two other quarterbacks in NFL history I've
ever done that, Tom Brady Aaron Rodgers. They both won
(42:17):
the MVP this season. They did that, So there is
a little bit of historical data where certain numbers he
needs to get to. I think they look better to
these beat writers and a lot of these people vote
on MVP, and I'm sure you've seen it. It's it's
already been a heated week. Patriots. Oh my god, it's
so much fun. Dania Laski just getting killed because his
agent reps Matthew Stafford's agent, and it's just they're coming
(42:39):
for you. If you have an opinion on this in
your sports media, they're really coming for you. And uh,
you know, it's we talked a little bit about it.
I think Stafford came on the show. He was over
plus three hundred the MVP. You've seen it come down
a little bit just because when I said, it's like,
this is opinionated award, there's no it doesn't matter if
Drake made is the big favorite here. It's it's really
based on these opinions and how well Stafford's agent can
sell it to all these people in media. When, like
(43:01):
I said, he's been around thirty seven years old, he's
been around a long time. That's going to ring true
in a lot of these media guys when they go
to vote. So you know, we're all in on this
Rams team. This is another spot where Arizona. We're really
big on Arizona being a team that quit here. That's
really what we're banking on here, because if you just
have a little bit of a letdown, like we've seen
this RAMS team, we can be so motivated. How do
(43:23):
they not put up thirty five forty points. We got
this Arizona defense shed, so I know it's very chalky.
I'm a bet by you on Tuesday, but I'm supporting.
I love this Rams team.
Speaker 1 (43:32):
It's a narrative award. People in the media love a narrative.
Simon says was the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a
half hosting the Baltimore Ravens in the last regular season
game of the year on Sunday Night Football. We're both
all in on the Pittsburgh Steelers. We're all in on
(43:53):
Mike Tomlin rah rah, We're all in on the Steelers
as an underdog. We're all in on Aaron Rodgers. I'm
mostly in because I think this Ravens defense has proven
to be a fraud against the pass. As the season
is going on. They haven't gotten better. They can be
taken in the middle of the field. They keep getting confused.
I'm tired of seeing Kyle Hamilton and Roquons with trying
(44:15):
to work it out after a big play like they
just haven't been good. I'm betting against the Ravens. I'm
betting on Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 2 (44:23):
Let's roll, yeah, And it's such a fitting way for
us in the season right on this gross game, taking
the gross dog in a spot we always back Tomlins.
So you know, it's a really unique game since what
Chad's talking about here, it's a team that you kind
of throw out their records and you just blindly take
the dog. Historically, go down the record one more time,
(44:45):
just because it's my will always be my favorite stat
this series since two thousand and five, thirty twelve and
three of the dog in this matchup seventy one percent
in the regular season underdogs. So, whether it's Tomlin's underdog
or Harball's underdog, these two coaches on the matchup where
which every team is the underdog twenty five and seven
against the spread in their history. It's crazy, it really
(45:07):
is when you go back through all the data. Especially
you know when those Ben Roethlisberger years, right, they had
the three bees, they were dominant offensively, they were playing
against a banged up Flaco and a horrible Ravens team.
The Ravens kept winning those games, are covering and then
they flipped. When this Pittsburgh team has now been playing backups,
they've been covering winning. So I don't know about you,
I'm hoping it's Lamar. I know it sounds crazy, but
(45:31):
we talked about Lamar with this injury to his legs,
he's not had his superpower. He's not had his legs,
and that's that's such a weapon of his the miss
where you saw it with Stup Huntley. That felt like
that was a big difference in that Green Bay game,
like they just couldn't contain him, and when he would
break out and he'd use his legs, that was such
a weapon you saw that was lacking of that Ravens offense.
So we'll see today. I think Lamar is participating their walkthrough.
(45:54):
You Hopefully he gets clear today and he should be
the quarterback here and maybe we get a four net
a four or four and a half by kickoff because
Lamar is the quarterback. But I'm grabbing the three and
a halfter just in case the professionals do come and
bet this one down. Now. I could see this one
coming down so unique spot. We love the Steelers here
and we blindly bet it. We will see what the
(46:15):
injury news is with Lamar, but you know, I just
can't see it affecting the line too much. And most
moves a point maybe a half a point he.
Speaker 1 (46:22):
Did practice, he is, They are confident he will play.
That's the latest series.
Speaker 2 (46:27):
So there you go, numbers. Maybe it won't, maybe I'm wrong,
Maybe it won't move because if Chad's give that infa,
that means that the books have known that for a
little bit. They have not budged. So that's that's really interesting.
So yet it's held at three and a half.
Speaker 1 (46:38):
Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half. Quick word from
our sponsor at hard Rock Back. We'll come back on
either side. Today's show is brought to you by our
presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet, Florida Sports Book and the
Official sports Book, part of your favorite Florida teams like
the Jags, Buccaneers, Heat, Magic, and Panthers. It's Week eighteen
and playoff spots are on the line. Think you know
(46:59):
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in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. All right, salmon hunter,
what are your biggest bets?
Speaker 2 (49:07):
Pull up fose pants and be a man before I
do it. A couple asked about futures. I'll do it
super quick, just from before the season, asking what I
have left from our show that got lost in the shuffle.
I basically need a miracle. I need the bills to
somehow for Super Bowl. Futures this says I need a miracle.
I need the Bills some how to make the Super Bowl,
to beat the forty nine ers at plus sixty five
(49:30):
to one, So that's the one I've left. Obviously, I
gave out the Eagles to over the Chiefs. That one's
deader than dead, forty nine ers to be the ones
in the NFC plus seven hundred still alive. I couldn't
believe it. I gave out worst record Arizona Cardinals seventy
five to one. I have a couple of tickets on
that one game away. There are three I think three
and thirteen are three and fourteen. Obviously, the Raiders have
(49:52):
two losses, so that one was really close to coming
out and still alive. Most receiving yards Jackson Smith ADJIGBA
five to one. He is leading by I think seventy yards.
So yeah, not not the best year for the future.
That's why we give out crazy long shots. You're always
crazy stuff for this week biggest bets. Like I said,
(50:13):
it's a little a little weird because it is the
week before the playoffs and there's so much college football
going on. Biggest vision I took obviously early in the week,
I took a large special on the Minnesota Vikings. Took
a large position just because I thought that Green Bay
wouldn't be playing their starters. I number has moved to
luckily accordingly, I took a pretty big position on this,
(50:35):
this forty nine Ers team at plus one and a half.
I'm a little worried about it because, like I said,
it is the pros are so heavily on the other side.
So you know, if you want to join me in
my prime my bigger bet for Saturday, I'll take Carolina
up to seven and a half. I'll take the forty
nine Ers up to seven and a half. It's probably
(50:55):
minus one twenty, maybe minus one ten, just because Carolina's
now is up back up the plus three. The juice
is in two bead, but I like both of them
to cover at least being a touchdown underdog. I just
can't see the forty Niners game blun or Carolina again
blend on these type of games. Just you see timetime again, right,
Teams fighting for a divisional divisional games that this sides
playoff positioning tend to be very close games. So I
(51:17):
do like that. I wouldn't tease it because teasers now
are rip off. I think if you tease this, it's
like minus one forty. You don't need the Panthers mine
or plus nine and a half. Just stake the number
up to just as seven and a half. That's me
and one of my bigger bets. And people know Chad's
already talking a little bit about it. Cincinnati, love that side,
Love the Rams. I'm just putting their money lines together,
(51:39):
taking a pretty big bet on both those sides, just
to win straight up. But yeah, like I said, very
very wonky week, it's just be careful because it's really
the pros heading these lines. The public usually set this
week out just because it is such a wild week.
Speaker 1 (51:55):
Speaking of money lines, money line underdog parlay. My dog
blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot Dog. I've got Pittsburgh, Carolina,
San Francisco, New Orleans love it, money line favorite. You
(52:19):
just mentioned two of them. I had Cincinnati and the Rams.
I have Denver minus five and a half. I got Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (52:31):
I don't know it. Like again, it's it's a weird
week where like Dallas, I like, I like Philly. I
know Philly's playing their backups, but Tany McKee just looks
like an absolute stud, Like I think this coulduld be
a starter. And this is the exact type of game
where you know he knows he's playing for that right,
he's playing for that Matt Flynn type of deal. He
wants that Matt Flynn money. So yeah, I like the Eagles.
(52:53):
Now the numbers move so much. I said, if you
could got if you got a guy watching it, plus seven,
that that was a really nice number. But now that
it's under seven, shout the Egos money line. I think
that's good value there. So yeah, there's a bunch of
ways you can mismash. If you don't love the Devers,
then we're line that Chad gave out. I don't hate
throwing Dallas's money line in their the Egos money line,
but yet Rams money line. Since these money line like these,
(53:15):
we've seen time with taking them these big favorites in
the week eighteen, these teams do tend to show up
with these other teams. They're already ready for that vacation.
They're just they're just there to get that paycheck.
Speaker 1 (53:25):
Sure versus Square, Who do you got? Uh?
Speaker 2 (53:32):
I guess I got it, Doe, because I've just hyped
it up so much of this point. Give me give
me the forty nine ers plus one plus one and
a half.
Speaker 1 (53:40):
I am taking the Cincinnati Bengals. I'll take the seven
and a half.
Speaker 2 (53:45):
You are Rams seven and a half and then Bengals
seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (53:47):
I know I thought about that. One of them is
gonna lose obviously.
Speaker 2 (53:51):
Now I don't know. I'm win you. I' drinking the koolid.
I like them both, all.
Speaker 1 (53:56):
Right, listen, Happy New Year to everybody. We're all Hoosiers today,
go Indiana Hoosiers. Fight, Fight Fight. This has been Sharper Square,
part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back
on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You'll get the
East drop on an intimate conversation where we make decisions
we will regret. Watch or listen on Sharper Square on YouTube.
(54:23):
You can also download us some Spotify Apple Pods wherever
you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, levi us five
stars say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift until Sunday.
I love you.
Speaker 2 (54:35):
This ain't Ray Nitchkei and Dick Buck some Deacon Jones
over there, So let's start kicking some hats. This team
is not better enough than not even good
Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We
are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the
show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys
pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always
by my BFF, my companion, Mike byre professional Better, my
co host, Simon Hunter Heado, Simon Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Happy year to you, my friend, how you doing.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Happy year to you, Happy New Year to Matt Mitchell,
Happy new Year to all of our friends and listeners
and watchers who have spent the season with us, who
found us anew in the Sharper Square world, who came
with us from the old world. We are incredibly appreciative
(00:52):
and lucky as we kick off twenty twenty six. Good
Lord twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
Yeah, it doesn't sound real yet. I definitely had one
of those moments last night. We were just saying out loud.
I turned to my friend and I said, it is
weird every time you hear that we're closer now to
twenty fifty than we are to the year two thousand,
or the year two thousand. Doesn't Oh my god, the
year twenty fifty sounds like a different lifetime. So it's
kind of a mind fuck right now thinking about that.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Twenty fifty is cosmic. Dude, I don't even know how
that well, let's see twenty fifty. I can't even say
how old i'll be, Simon, you might be. You might
be doing this show on your own. By that.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
I doubted chat. I keep saying people like you that
live on bird feed, they live to one.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
Hundred years, twenty fifty.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
In all my cloud arteries.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
I'm not even gonna say. All I know is that
I'm not even gonna say twenty fifty eighty. I can't
even I can't even see the number. I won't be eighty,
but I won't be that far off.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
I mean, you really want to. I'll be your age basically.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Dude, you'll be older than me.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
I'll basically be right around sixty.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
Yeah, but I'm not sixty.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
I know. It's just fun making fun of you.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
That's hurtful. Those are hurtful things to say as we
kick off the new year, as BFFs, Hey listen today,
no matter where you are, no matter what you're doing,
we are all hoosiers. That's all I'm going to say,
except I'm also going to say, for those who are
like grappling with Indiana's college football dominance, welcome to the club.
(02:45):
If you're joining us in Who's your nation? You're wondering
what a hoosier is? I wish I could tell you.
I took an entire class on it when I went
to Indiana University. I still don't know. It could be
some nickname from a poem a guy in Indiana wrote.
It could be a saying from Jolly Old England, Simon,
(03:08):
about like depicting strength and woodsman. It could be because
a guy who owned a lot of land in the
state of Indiana was named John Hoosier, and everyone who
worked for him called themselves Hoosiers. It doesn't matter today, Simon.
You're a hoosier. Matt Mitchell is a Hoosier. I'm a hoosier.
(03:28):
Go I you fight, Fight, Fight?
Speaker 2 (03:33):
What about Chad? The trend of off of bye in
the college playoffs do not like.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
What I've seen so far, with the teams getting the buys.
It's not a good trend at all, Simon. We saw
it again last night with Ohio State losing to Miami.
Great game by Miami. Hopefully Kurt Signetti gets to repeat
the words of Miami coach that he said last night.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
But hats off to our guys for being some tough
ass suns of bitches.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
Tough ass sons of bitches, that's what we are for
doing a week eighteen episode on Thursday on New Year's
Day in the morning, because we are dedicated, we're professional.
We're going to do our stinking job. Tough ast sons
of bitches.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Yeah, we bus should be up on a couch right
now watching stranger Things, getting ready for this college football day.
But instead, the never ending wheel that is the NFL
continues to roll. My friend, we gotta get to it.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
No, Simon, we should be on the peloton working off
the olive oil cake that we ate last night. All right, reminders,
subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple, Potzi, Spotify. Let's
get into this every week. We give our picks every week,
even in the holiday season. Simon's fellow professional betters, the
wise guys are going to give us some feedback, So
(04:50):
let's get to it. Let's hear some sharp calls.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
Have to answer this boat, all right, telephone ring maybe lead, Yeah,
there's always Let's start where we differ. The pros absolutely
love Chicago. Most guys I've talked to have taken a
position on Chicago even like Chicago at the minus three,
So they totally think Chicago's are a much better team
(05:18):
than Detroit right now. A team that is playing for
that two seed. They think they're gonna massively motivated and
they've been betting it just thinking that exact way. So
that one actually pretty pretty shocked me. I thought that
Troy would be the pro side, the public would be
over the Bears, but it seems like the public and
the pros are lining up on this Bears team another game.
I think it's just not on our radar, or maybe
(05:38):
I'm just missing it. I wanted to be on Dallas.
Every pro I've talked to, they love the Giants here
in this spot. They love Dart and what he can
do offensively against a Cowboys defense. It's just atrocio, especially
against running quarterbacks. So I found it really interesting that
so many pros that's gonna be a close one. And yeah,
that number is a couple of times touched four again,
just got to mainly bet back down to three and
a half in a lot of books. So really interesting
(06:01):
a game that I might simply just be missing Seattle Seahawks.
I cannot believe the pros are hammering Sam Darnold as
a favorite all on the road and it must win
to get the one C type of game, But they are.
I mean, most guys I talked to really like that
spot and they just think this four NS team is
truly a house of cards. How much longer could party
(06:21):
in this offense, prop up this foreign others team is
kind of their view of it. And if you're looking
for a team that maybe can stop this juggerna have
an offense to the four and horows, it would be
the Seattle defense, right that's been so dominant on the road,
so really interesting game where I thought all this would
be lined up on them and it's pretty split. But
what we did get right Panthers, like we talked about
(06:41):
all all week. You know that came down for three
and a half to three now down to two and
a half. That's a really smart sharp side and I'm
glad the pros are on it because I was a
little worried when I saw how much money was pouring
on that Bucks team. It's like, what am I missing here?
But I think we see this number keep dropping. It
makes me feel better is our position. And you know,
another game we haven't spent too much time on, but
(07:03):
I think is an interesting move by the professionals is
that Chargers game. The pros have just been hammering the
Chargers and the number really has not budged. So that's
gonna be an interesting topic to talk about. Where are
the books simply just missing it? Are they overrating too
much the backups for this Chargers team, and they're clearly
taking a stand here the books. And you know, I
(07:26):
don't think the public this is a game they're ever
gonna mess with. I truly think this is just a
professionals versus the books type of game. Right the most,
you know, Joe public betters, they're not gonna bet too
big on the NFL this weekend. So a lot of
the money when you see big money simply on one
side most times, if it's a game like this, like
a twelve and a half points spread, this is gonna
be professional money. It's not going to be the type
(07:46):
of game the public tuch touches here. So I'm really
interested where that number goes check because like I said,
the books have taken a stand now they're holding firm
on that twelve and a half game. We love Saints
plus three plus three and a half, It's I knew
that would be the pro side. It's gonna be interesting
what happens now. We just got word before the show
Olave is going to miss this game. See where that
(08:07):
number goes. Maybe we get fours four and a half,
So I know there's gonna be some pros on the
other side of this. It's just then they basically took
Atlanta two and a half or they've not touched it since,
so it really is just if you're getting the three
three and a half, that's the professional side in my
opinion on the Saints. And you know, the last one
we talked a little bit about at Minnesota. We've seen
(08:28):
that number. I got a couple of books get up
to seven and a half. It keeps coming back down,
so you know there is some a little bit of resistance.
But I hope people listen. Got the five and a half,
got the six and a half on Minnesota. That was
definitely the sharp side. I don't think we see it
go below seven at this point, so it's a wonky week.
I'll have maybe a little bit more calls come Sunday morning.
But just with the holiday, it throws it off a
(08:48):
little bit because most pros I know espos of your
professional groups, they're really focused on the college the college
bowl games and the playoffs. Once that once those games
are over, that's when they start taking larger positions come
NFL Saturday and Sunday. So I'll definitely have more info
for Sunday morning.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
Hi, So everyone check it out Sunday morning. We're on
the air. YouTube watch it, Sharper Square. I'm really excited
about this Carolina game. We've been hitting it since it
was three and a half last Sunday. They are now
two and a half at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Simon,
the Carolina Panthers are going to be our brass balls
(09:27):
Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bet you know
what it takes brass balls. To me, it came down
to this and the Chargers, And I'm glad you brought
up the Chargers and Sharp Calls because I do want
to talk about them later in the show. Really intriguing
matchup to me, But I feel like we would have
(09:49):
been doing our listeners a poor service, a disservice if
we didn't just ride with the Carolina Panthers in a
spot where they are coming off a loss, they are
on the road, they can fulfill their destiny that we
have been predicting for two years of winning the dreadful
(10:11):
Nobody cares about it, NFC South, Like, how do we
not stick to our guns and go with the Carolina Panthers,
especially on a trend. Three weeks ago, we're on them,
two weeks ago, we're off them. This week we're on them.
Let's just be consistent. Let's do everyone service and be
on the right side of history with the Carolina Panthers
(10:33):
plus two and a half.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Yeah, we love betting history as well. Just the uniqueness
of this right, this will be give all the stat
one more time. Carolina seven zero against the spread after
a straight up loss, covering over almost twelve points per
game in this exact spot. Since nineteen ninety, no team
has ever gone eight to oh against the spread after
a straight up loss. So, like you said, we're betting
(10:55):
on history here, can never avoid it. Really unique spot
with this Panthers team. Yeah, I really found it interesting
just about when I gave out that home record with Baker,
just about how bad he is in this exact spot
at home and the fact that you know in his
career five and fourteen at home and against divisional foes,
(11:15):
since he's moved to all these different teams, so since
twenty twenty two and twelve against the spread against home
divisional foes. So as a favorite, we talk we just
do not back Baker. We like to fade Baker. We
like to back them as a dog. Little did we
know he would be going through one of the most
historical worst streaks ever against the spread. We have made
money luckily off of it. But my guy, looking back,
there were so many signs there. This was just a
(11:37):
crumbling house. And the start of the year they were
so hot, they were so good to us because we
were winning on them. I think we're not late to
the party with this Bucks team, but you know, we've
been a little hesitant in certain matchups to fade them.
Here we're both a line where we're like, okay, we
want to fade Baker. We really want it back to Panthers,
and we said this probably should be closer to a pick.
There's not much that separates these two teams at this standpoint.
(11:59):
So the fact that you're still getting the Baker feels
like tax Like there's still the books. You're still giving
Baker that point point and a half because he is
the better quarterback. I think we're gonna still here like
the Panthers, you know, coming off fifty four yards by
Bryce Young. Yeah, like I said, this is this isn't
this exact thing he does? He plays possible, they do.
They're terrible one week. The next week he's throwing for
(12:20):
what was a three fifty against the Rams like a jugger.
Not you just it's just so up and down this season.
So I love that were end of the season with
our team, the Panthers give it to us plus two
and a half.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
You know, Simon, we had some friends over last night,
and I got a lot of comments this week from
listeners about your immediate reaction when I said Rico Tautle
needs seven yards and you're like, no, no, I can't
do a whole show where you're talking.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
About this seven yards.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Yeah, seven yards. I just want to point out I
did bet ric o'dowdell twenty five plus yards rushing and
parlay it with ric o'dowdell his anytime touchdown, because the
anytime touchdown odds are about plus one seventeen. If you
parlay it with his twenty five plus yards, you're getting
it for plus one thirty. So that was my point.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Yeah, I had I think I had two different people
walk up to me and say, hey, Rico Dado has
got a bad hamstring. Might not play this week.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
He's playing. He's he's full participant this morning.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
If the difference is seven yards, to make what is
a million dollars in incentives, you have to play it.
Take the shot. Yeah, you have to at least get
two or three carres. T I get seven yards. That
might be a stretch, but seven yards he got.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
I love that people were coming up to you in
the book, Well.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Tell me this guy's hurt. Yeah, I just yea.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
All that is just great. God bless our listeners the
freaking best. Hey, Matt Mitchell, I didn't put this in
the script, but we should throw up Seattle and San
Francisco just because Simon mentioned it, because I didn't think
we were going to play it in the contest. We can't, right,
It's right, we can't play it in the contest. So
like I'm a little surprise too. I understand sort of
(14:03):
where the wise guys are coming from, and We talked
a little bit about this on Tuesday. They are very
clear distinctions here. Either you believe in Kyle Shanahan as
an underdog and you believe in what he's been able
to prove with his team at home as an underdog,
or you believe in Mike McDonald and what he's been
able to prove with this defense on the road and
being so dominant. So I understand why the wise guys
(14:26):
are backing the Seahawks. At the end of the day,
I think you and I both just feel better backing
Brock Purty and Kyle Shanahan than ultimately backing Sam Donald.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Yeah, and we talked this is another historical game, right
since nineteen ninety, only one other time as the forty
nine ers had a one percentage above seventy five percent
have been a home dog, and it's very unique. I
went back and looked it up twenty eleven twenty twelve
playoffs Drew Brees Saints four nine Ers one thirty six
to thirty two. So not much historical data we have
(14:56):
to go off of, but Dad just shows you that,
you know, it's a unique spot for this Niners team.
They're not really dogs at home and I gave you
all those crazy brock pretty stats in his career against
the Seahawks team in his career six and one straight
up when he's been under three points or less, he's
three and zero straight up and against the spread at home.
You know, we just there's something about this fortn Irist team,
(15:19):
especially at home, and knowing that this is kind of
the way it's been with Shanahan. Like we talked before
the year, we both like the Niners to be the
one seed at plus nine hundred in the NFC, and
it really was because their schedule was easy. But we've
talked all the time about the up and down of
the Niners. They're just the seesaw team. They come in
fourth place, the next year, they come in first place.
(15:40):
They get healthy. The next year, they have a ton
of injuries. This year they've had the injuries. I mean,
that's why Shannon's up for Coach of the Year at
number two right now in the voting, or I should
send the odds because they've done it with all these injuries.
I mean, it's incredible what the Niners have battle to
deal with those injuries. So I get why the pros
are taking their position in the Seahawks. Right, I blindly
bet the Seahawks team all year on the road because
(16:01):
they're just a covering machine. The coach gets this defense up,
you know. Mike McDonald's also I think maybe number three
and number four and Coach of the year odds just
because it's been incredible, right, Yeah, when he got his
quarterback and really has changed his defense. And at the
end of the day, me, you were a line chat.
The reason we like the sport and ours team is
we just do not trust Sam Darnold and you've seen it.
(16:23):
The numbers back it up. These last five six weeks,
he's been very disappointing. I think he's number one or
number two in the league in fumbles. He's just been machine. Yeah,
he's been really up and down, and the defense has
kind of bailed him out and saved them. So you're
basically if you're back in theoxy, you are simply back
in that defense. And I think we're both more comfortable
back in purty the Sneyers offense, and they've been there,
(16:44):
done that, right, Perty has been to Super Bowls. He's
lived up to these kind of moments in his in
his career, so I know it's crazy unique spot getting
the niners of the dog. I do just feel like
we're the suckers here. But like I said, it's I
think the pros are missing this one. Back in the
Seaks team, I think this is finally time the hop
off the train if we kind of got away with
one last week when they were seven and a half
my favorites.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
Speaking of suckers, back in the old eighteen hundred days,
when Indiana was first defining itself as the Hoosier State,
they called their border rivals in Illinois the suckers. True story,
(17:24):
thank you for your attention to that matter.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
My God, I'm gonna let you have your moment though,
because you're right Hoosiers. You guys are number one right now. Baby.
Today you might not end that way, but today, as
we said here, right now, it's.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
I'm going to enjoy it. Listen, people dismiss the Midwest.
They don't understand the lords and culture of the Midwest.
You know, I'm married to a woman who's from New
York City, who grew up in Staten Island, who looks
at everything as a flyover state, even though she went
to Michigan. But she sees that as like and a
(17:59):
not Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Matt Mitchell's current home state. Those
states don't matter to people, but they matter to me. Okay,
so today we are going to give them their due.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Chris Farley changed my opinion about the Midwest. That's why
I will say that, Man, I did not think there's
a sense of humor in that cluster. But Chris Farley,
you opened my eyes.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
It's all sense of humor. It's all kindness and sense
of humor in the Midwest. New Orleans plus three and
a half at Atlanta actually moved down to three now
even with the Olave news, because everybody has been piling
in from the wise guy perspective on the Saints, and
as you noted, this is a wise guy week. It's
(18:43):
not a huge public week. But man, Atlanta has been
playing great. To me, this is really about Tyler Schuckrookie
of the Year game, and I don't love. I don't
love that A Lave is out and we'll know so
much more about Tetero McMillan, who's now the odds on
favorite from the day before, could have a huge impact
(19:04):
on what happens with Tyler Shuck.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
Yeah, and it's brutal losing alive. Like he's just been
brutal so good. It feels like every time they draw
up some type of play for him to get one
on one and he's just automatic. Feels like in the
end zone was shucked. They've just had such great chemistry,
especially down the stretch here. And you know, maybe, like
I said, maybe I'm too biased, too close to I'm
just happy at least see that pros are actually betting
(19:28):
the same side with me, because not gonna lie. I
got a little word when I got up to three
and a half, I go, oh my god, now they're
giving us the hook on this. I could not believe
that Kirk was now minus three and a half at home.
But Kirk got to give him props, Like going through
the tape watching these last couple of weeks, you know
he's instill these Kirk games where he just is so
immobile in the pocket, he looks so totally lost against
(19:50):
the right type of defense. But overall, I got to
give him a ton of props the way he's been
playing down a stretch here, and I think he's earned
the right to be a starter next season. Might not
be for Atlanta, but some team. You got to give
this guy a chance at this point, like he totally
has come back from this Achilles injury where you know,
last year we talked about he couldn't push off his
back foot. I watch a tip. He's pushing off that
back foot, no problem. He's stepping into throws really good
(20:13):
throws downfield. So matchup wise for us with the Saints team,
what I'm trying to hang my hat on is what
we talked a little bit about is you know, they're
actually pretty good against the past. Their weakness has been
the rush. And as much as love and everything Robinson's
getting in this, you know what he just did in
the two prime time games back to back the last
(20:34):
time they played, the Saints did really well at bottling
up Jon Robinson. Like they're they're a team that I've
so they see him twice a year and they have
so in his entire career. You know, we always talk
to divisional teams. They have a different read on these
in these type of games. So all right, I do
think there are ways for them, the Saints to attack defensively,
and we've already talked about shuck. People might think he's
dead in these games, and he just always finds a
(20:56):
way to come back. He's been that way since he's
been a starter, where you know, he just keeps on
slinging it. And that game against Tennessee where they're down thirteen,
they never looked worried. He kept pushing the ball down,
feeling obviously we got lucky, right they were kind of dead,
and all of a sudden, the war got strip sacked
for that touchdown that brought spark to that Saints team.
But you know, the Saints have always found a way
since Huck's become the starter, to find ways to win.
(21:17):
So U plus three and a half with this kid
and this offensive way they've been moving the ball, I
feel like we always have the opportuny to get the
back door here. So I really, I really was hoping
that maybe I could talk myself out of this one
if it's stay at two and a half, but the
fact that it's three and a half never gonna avoid it.
Love this number for this Saints team, and they've just
been absolutely covering machine down the stretch here.
Speaker 1 (21:37):
Simon. I think what you're saying about Kirk Cousins when
you watch them on film right now, and the way
he's able to push off is.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
You like that.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Do you get it?
Speaker 2 (21:47):
I do, But I thought it was gonna know other
hoosier reference. I'm kind of heartbroken. I thought you're gonna
bring it back to the Who's years.
Speaker 1 (21:53):
I'll find a way.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
You needn't.
Speaker 1 (21:55):
Don't you worry. It's twenty twenty six, my friend, new year,
the name sense of humor. Don't worry about me because
I'm so old. I can't change, right, can.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
Change your body. DNA totally changes every seven years. I
believe it, totally reed. Does you can change that? You
choose not to change. Unfortunately that's the problem.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
Well, now you really do sound like my wife. Cleveland
at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a seven and a half point favorite.
I don't see how we're walking away from this. Like
the in the last forty eight hours, I love this
game even more. I might bet some altlines in Cincinnati.
I just think they're gonna go out there and fling it.
(22:39):
They don't give a shit. They can say they're building
on next year, it doesn't matter. Joe Burrow just wants
to go out and have a good time and play
some ball and end the year on a high note
and sling it to Jamar Chase and forty two. That's
my call.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
Now, did something happen that made you like it more?
You just just like it because you like it more.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
I like it because I like him.
Speaker 2 (23:01):
I don't know if I miss miss something, but yeah,
I'm right there with you. Like I talked, this is
the exact type of game that Cincinnati just goes all out,
plays hard. Their offense has been rolling. I know they
did have that horrible game, Like you said, Joe Burrow
was contemplating a life and if he's happier or not,
and then went out and totally put up zero against
a Ravens defense that has been suspect all season. Since then,
(23:23):
he's you know, he's been lighted up and that's just
what we expected Joe Burrow. When he's got Chase Higgins
both playing, it's an offense that's an absolute juggernaut. The
only thing that's been missing was the blocking. And you know,
I keep talking about the offensive line. You're gonna look
at the numbers since Joe Flacco took over, they've been
at top fifteen some weeks, top ten offensive line of
pass protection, which is just blowing my mind when I
(23:45):
look at this team, and it really has been the interior,
like the guards have been playing better. Everything just really
impressive how the Bengals have turned around that offensive line.
And if you're a Bengals fan, maybe another thing you
could picture Joe Burrow to'd be like you got to
come back next year. Right the offensive line we've totally rebuilt.
It's better where it felt like two weeks ago his
foot was kind of out the door, like he was
(24:06):
leaving it open to be like I can move on
potentially next year where I think he'd come back. This
exact type of game where we talked about chat. This
is a type of game they'll win big to kind
of launch off into the offseason of like see momentum
we ended the season. This is what we can be.
And I'll give out the stab one more time. This
Browns team off a straight up win since last year,
(24:26):
zero to six against the spread, losing those games by
almost eleven points per game. So they're not covering by
eleven points per game, I should say, so, they've just
been absolutely terrible. It's exact spot. They're just a team
that does not not to handle winning and that we
joke all the time, but it really is a young
team at its core, right this Browns team. They nailed
this draft. I mean I went back and look, they
(24:48):
probably coming to this year, they're probably have my highest
grade for what they drafted this past draft class, but
not the quarterback. But I've already talked about Sanders has
been great as like the worst quarterbacks since he's taken
over as a starter, even worse than Geno Smith somehow,
which shocked me when I looked at the stats. But
you feel like this is a total game where he
just cannot keep up with Joe Brown that offense. So
(25:08):
I'm with Chad, give me the Cincinnati Bengals minus seven
and a half.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
The real question, Simon, And I want Matt Mitchell to
note this. I want him to remember this. I want
him to play this when we get to August and
we're doing our team by team in division breakdowns and
we're doing our quarterback rankings. Are we suckers? Are we
looking at Joe Burrow and his last six games and saying,
oh my god, the guy was dominant and this offensive
(25:32):
line was good. And are we thinking the value on
the Bengals is going to be too high to win
the division because they're going to be playing a relatively
bad schedule, and are we going to all of a
sudden be going all in in value? Are we going
to be as the Hoosiers yet, like used to say
about their friends on their border state, are we going
(25:54):
to be Illinois suckers? And are we going to go
all in backing Joe Burrow in the Bengals. I want
us to remember this. I want us to be smart
about this. I don't want us to get crazy, because
something's always going to happen to screw up that bet.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
Well, I'll say this. My one buddy turning me and said,
this is the only division of football that they could
have all four teams have a different starter come next
year Week one, with all the drama, with so more
what we've heard from Joe Burrow, uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers,
and the unknown obviously of the Browns and what they're
going to do. And I was like, I, you're right,
I've probably never even thought about That's probably the only
(26:29):
division of my lifetime that's ever been in that unique
spot of having all four new starters come Week one
next year.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Two years ago, this was the most competitive division in football. Remember,
all teams had season win totals of eight and a
half or higher. Yeah, it's like insane how quickly the
league changes Dallas a three and a half point favorite
at the New York Giants. We are very public on this.
We both like Dallas. You're explaining the wise guys, like
(26:57):
the way Jackson Dark can move the ball around. Definitely
on the public side here because we do have reverse
line movement with the public coming in on the Cowboys,
but the line moving in the direction of the Giants
doesn't have to get into the contest for me. But
I'm not seeing it with the Giants.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
And then I hate these step of ones because it's
like either side, I feel like I'm leaving money on
the table where it's like the line movements scared me
enough where I'm not putting as much in the Dallas
and it's making me rethink where maybe I'm overlooking this
Giants team too much and this is probably a Giant spot.
But I told you in my life is a better
with Dak. I blindly bet him in this exact spot
right when he's playing a bad divisional team below five hundred.
(27:40):
Dak beats the crap buy of these type of teams
in the exact spot. He just seems to win these
games big. You know, maybe once again there's something I'm missing,
Maybe there's a cold front or a storm coming in
on Sunday. I don't think there is. Like I checked
the weather. It looks pretty good. I just don't know
why Dak being outdoors in the cold or the line
moving as much as it has off. I just don't
(28:01):
know what it's moved off. Right, it's moved off professional money.
So you know there's nothing going on injury wise for
either team. Right, was the Cowboys cut Digs or it did?
Speaker 1 (28:12):
Said with the Packers Travon Diggs.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
Yeah, so I don't know. It's it's like he doesn't matter.
He wasn't doing anything for the Cowboys anyway. So really
bizarre line movement here, and like like Chad said, we
know it's the public side with Cowboys, but it's it's
Dak and Dallas against a bad team. Like I said,
this is a long term winner. Taking fish with Dak
usually wins these games pretty big. So he's another guy
(28:35):
that you know, it's not his fault. His team's been
as bad as they were this year. He's he's has
great numories. He's performed basically every week he's had a
couple letdown games, so that's usually against really good defenses.
That's so much against the Giants team that yes they
have a pass rush, but that secondary is just terrible,
so terrible, you expect him to throw over the field.
With Ceedee, Lamb and Pickens obviously playing for that new contract.
Speaker 1 (28:55):
Green Bay and Minnesota, we talked about this one has
moved from five and a half on Sunday night when
we talked about it, said you got to grab it
to seven. We don't know who the Packers quarterback is
going to be. We do know that they recently signed
Desmond Ridder to the practice squad and we expect them
to rest a lot of starters. So that's why this
(29:16):
game has moved from five and a half to seven.
The only reason it isn't moving more is because Max
Brosmer is the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings as far
as we know. So like in terms of value, in
terms of contest, I mentioned it only because of the
Desmond Ridder news. I don't think there's a play to
be had here if you are getting this number at seven.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
Yeah, and I'm obviously investing in the Vikings, but if
you don't have a single penny invested in the Vikings.
You have no bet on this game. A couple of
books have popped green Bay seven and a half. I mean,
with all the unknown, that to me is the position
you want to be on at this point. You're getting
now a touchdown and a half where it could be
Malik Willis, which is that's a big deal. Like if
he is a player now, if it's as a rider, obviously,
(30:01):
I think you're deader than Debt. I can't see him
moving the ball that well, especially after one week of
practice against this Vikings defense. But yeah, it's a weird
game because the numbers moved too much to me, Like
I like the Vikings. You can still get anything under seven.
But like I said, a bunch of bookser popping seven
and a half. I just I cannot give out the
Vikings with a third string quarterback at seven and a
(30:21):
half without knowing who the green Bay quarterback is. If
it's the third or fourth string guy, Yeah, I have
no problem taking Minnesota if you want a ton of points.
But yeah, this is what's tough about this week. The
lines moved so much just because the pros are hitting
it so early. And yeah, this game I really am
shocked to see you getting up to seven and a half.
Hopefully like you, you know, listen to the show. You
(30:45):
were able to get the five and a half on Minnesota,
even the six and a half we gave it on Tuesday.
But yeah, at this point, the number to me is
we have too much for me to really give out
the Vikings on minus seven LA Chargers.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
We talked about it twelve and a half point underdogs
at Denver. I'm shocked this one hasn't moved to thirteen.
I was really hoping it would because I wanted to
bet it at thirteen. One book actually has it, A
very public book has it at eleven and a half.
But like, this is an imminently intriguing matchup to me
(31:21):
because the Charger's defense is still good, and that's who's
going to be defending against Bo Nicks. I don't talk
about unknowable. Why is Trey Lance to me a ten
point difference from Justin Herbert. I don't know that he
should be, and so I think he presents a dynamic
with his legs that's a little bit different than what
(31:43):
the Broncos have been able to prepare for. So it
just feels like it's way too high to me.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Yeah, I actually went in luck to see what is
the difference just from my model, and honestly, it's right
around that jet. I think, yeah, I had it a
nine point difference. So some of that likes, you know,
shit on Herbert because it's fun because his fans think
he's something that he's not, which is.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
Top five quarterback.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
Yeah. I think he's a good quarterback, just not top
five quarterback. But I told you this is all pros,
Like this is just simply a pros versus the book
type of game. And yeah there's hard rock, just move
to twelve while we're doing a live. So clearly there's
still money coming on the charters even late. But I
just want to let people don't be scared off, Like
(32:26):
you look at all the splits, you're gonna see all
the tickets, all the money on the charters team. Like
I said, I think it's simply just professionals. I don't
still know anyone Joe public messing this game. Less they're throwing,
you know, the Broncos in a five and a half
teaser or taking the Broncos money line. That just I
just cannot see the public line up whe there's other
games are gonna want to bet the Broncos have disappointed
right as a favorite. I've talked about Nick's season two
and nine is a favorite against the spread. He's just
(32:47):
struggled in this spot. And you know, Chad, Chad talked
about a little bit here with Trey Lance. It's it
is a obviously a step down from Herbert, but the
legs I feel like mitigate a lot of it. Well,
you've seen Herbert do so well. Obviously he's going to
passing the ball. Herbert has bailed them out a ton
with his legs, and that's what it's gonna happen a
lot here with Trey Lance. He's going to be on
(33:08):
the run a ton. And shockingly saw the Chargers are
going to play a lot of their starters from their
offensive line just because those guys need work. Like if
you look at the grades, they're basically thirty second, thirty
first and almost ever Yeah, category blocking wise, and you
know they obviously need to work in the past block
and run blocking. This is the perfect thing to do
it against. The Broncos have one of the best fronts
(33:29):
in all of football. So Trey Lance, he's gonna be
running for his life. But like Chad just said, this
feels like a little bit too much of a movement
with the Herbert news, Like, if it was Herbert in
this game, what is this a three point two and
a half point type of spread? Ten points feels like
a lot. So if you do hear this and you
can'tet a twelve and a half, I would grab because
I do think the pros keep betting this down. And
(33:51):
like Chad said, there's one book already shown eleven and
a half. I think a couple of books will follow
suit as the week goes along.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
Here, Keenan Allen a lot of incentives in this game.
I don't know if he's going to be playing, but
if he does, look for those Keenan Allen props, folks,
because if there's anything that there that's like, it could
be the perfect scenario. Like he's playing. They don't really
have anything to lose, so just sling the ball. Find
(34:18):
a way to get Keenan Allen his seven hundred and
fifty grand and incentives. If he has six plus receptions,
take a look, it's more than seven yards. I'll tell
you that much. Detroit plus three at Chicago Caleb Williams
is two hundred and seven yards away from being the
first Chicago Bear ever to get four thousand passing yards
(34:42):
in a season. Ben Johnson was asked about this in
his past conference and he said he thought it was
an arbitrary number. Who cares? Reporters laughed and said, you
must be new here, because everyone here cares quite a bit.
I looked at Caleb's two year stats through week seventeen
(35:04):
in his second year, forty five touchdown passes and only
twelve picks. So last night, my buddy who was over
asked me while we were watching the game, the Miami
Ohio State game, if you were to redraft the twenty
twenty four quarterback draft, what would you do. I still
had Caleb number one, and I and I Drake made
(35:26):
number two.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
Yeah, we all overreact, right. I think Jane Daniels was
the unanimous number one pick coming to this yes, from
that draft. So yeah, it's just I saw people are saying,
is this the greatest QB draft ever? A draft that
I think Jane Daniel's the only one with the actual
playoff win. So it's just we like the crown them early.
That's what we do here. We'd like the crown them early,
(35:49):
but I'd never wear it. I said from the get go,
Caleb was my number one guy. I mean one of
my favorite shows ever was I think it was we
had on Seth Rollins was trying to talk you and
Seth Rolind is down about getting rid of Justin Fields
and how it's a good thing and Caleb Williams is
a million times better in sets of the Upside, And
it's just funny looking back right now, It's like there's
(36:11):
no question. Right ones are proven winner that can make
the big time throw. The other one is a crazy
athlete that can never find a way to win games.
So years, yeah, Caleb is just you see why he's
you know, the guy was hyped up in high school
Seth wickershamptoas his dad had him getting interview prepped when
he was in high school getting ready for talking to
(36:31):
the media for college in the NFL. Like, this kid
always has been the guy. The question was always going
to be can he be a leader of men? Can
this guy lead mint? Can guys play hard for him
through a whole season? Does he have that type of
personality type? And you've seen it now he is what
we always talk about right. You need a quarterback be
the type of alpha guy. He seems like he is it.
You know, that game last week really was shocking. I
(36:55):
just couldn't believe how great Caleb played in a game
that had just the same amount of press should get
the one seed. So I am not shocked talking about
this game to see the pros coming on this Bears team. Right.
They have been what we've talked about all season. They
play teams close, they always find ways to win late,
and that's just their identity, right. They're just a slug
it out type of team, and they have something the
(37:15):
Lions don't have, which is a run game, Like let's
break it down for real, this Lion's team. They can
now fall back on the run game like they have
in the past. A lot of these games have fallen
onto golf shoulders where this Bears team and they need
to pick up four or five chunks to give you know,
a third and five or second and five. To Caleb,
they've been great to put them in that position. The
Lions have not been the same. I do think that
(37:37):
is why so many pros think that this is the
difference here. The Bears team will always be in a
better position. But I think me and Chi I have
talked a little bit about this Bears team. We love them,
but as a three point favorite, that's where I have
to draw the line. This is a team, like I talk,
they play close games. This Lions team, as bad as
they've looked, there's still the number two, number three offense
in all of football. There's still a team that has
(37:57):
moved the ball. They've just been so let down by
their defense. So really unique spot, right, a really really
unique spot in the sense that a couple of weeks
ago the Lions were probably minus one here on the road,
and the number has moved about four and a half
points five points now because the Bears have been playing
so well down the stretch of the lines, they've fallen
(38:18):
off the cliff. I mean that last loss, I mean
could be more embarrassing. That's why the public, yeah, totally
out on them, right that.
Speaker 1 (38:25):
That's, by the way, why I'm on this game is
how bad that game was that last game. Like, I'm
fading the Bears brilliant and I'm betting into the Lions
complete and total failings, which.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
Again to me, is scary because this type of year,
I really do think you are who you are, Like
the Lions are exactly who they are if you go
through and you look these last couple of weeks, Now
this is who they are. They've totally faltered here and
fallen apart, and it's really golf. Golf has just been
absolutely terrible with the turnovers, holding on the ball too long,
like it just feel like all of a sudden, he
is zero pocket work and it's like he doesn't know
(39:00):
there's a blitz coming. He's about to get smacked in
three seconds. All of it. Golf has been so bad.
But like you just said, this is the lowest we've
been able to buy this Lions team. And I don't know,
four years with Campbell, like this is just feels like
this is low as a guess since we bet on
them when they were what zero to eight and they
come out pulled out that one against the Minnesota Vikings.
So it's been a long time with this Lions team.
(39:22):
And yeah, it's really been to me about the numbers.
So we'll rob the books. The books are going to
destway need the Lions come Sunday, and that's a position
I'm happy to be in. So grabbed the three. We'll
see if we get lucky in three and a halfs
a couple of three and a halfs pops. But while
we're doing to show Live hard Rock, just what to
two and a half. So there is some pro money
coming on this Lions team. Now.
Speaker 1 (39:41):
Finally, Arizona the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are seven
and a half point favorites. It's ticked up from seven
to to seven and a half since I made it
Chad's choice talk about you are who you are, and
maybe I was leaning into a two hard for the Lions,
but I'm definitely buying into a team that had a
(40:04):
dreadful first half in prime time and then nearly won
the game in the second half with the guy who
probably should be the MVP and Matthew Stafford going against
a team that really is who we think they are
in the Arizona Cardinals. It's at seven, it's moved up
to seven and a half. Still good with it, still
(40:26):
like it. Still want to put it in the contest
Los Angeles Rams Fight Fight fight.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
Yeah, and Arizona just looks like one of those teams
that all these guys had booked their vacation. They're done,
They're totally cooked, you know. Last week saw some fight.
I think they had this crazy, crazy touchdown where Cincinaty
couldn't tackle. And also it was like a fourteen to
fourteen point game. The final score is thirty seven to fourteen,
Like Cincinnati just totally whooped and opening up on the
(40:56):
rest of the game. And we've gone through it. Every
game they've just gotten blown out. Even Atlanta beat them
by a touchdown. I think they beat him twenty six nineteen.
Speaker 1 (41:04):
Yeah, they just like they they they they couldn't compete anymore.
Like the second half of the year. They just stop
being able to keep the games that were close in
the first half of the year within contention and they
just get blown out and they get blown out late.
Speaker 2 (41:19):
And the last time they played. Speaking of a reaction,
the ramsay this same exact team, whereas in Arizona's a
minus nine and a half point favorite. So they're yeah,
the numbers moved against them now that they're at home.
Speaker 1 (41:34):
Makes no sense exactly.
Speaker 2 (41:35):
It just shows how the public and general puck overreacts
to it. So this is gonna be a huge need
for the book. But every week over it plays against
the Arizona's gonna be in need. Obviously, but I'm with Jet.
It was an exact type of game that they need
to get right in McVeigh. You know it's not gonna
be an easy week of practice, right, It's gonna be
that really hell a week. They need this. They're gonna
need to show up offensively and touch a little bit
(41:56):
of the staff for in MVP stuff. There's no way
they don't hear that stuff inside the line. There's no
way they don't hear that. Yeah, he's now not the favorite,
and I'm sure he's seen that. I think he has
forty two touchdown passes. Basically, if he throws for three
touchdown passes, he'll have forty five touchdown passes and under
ten interceptions. Only two other quarterbacks in NFL history I've
ever done that, Tom Brady Aaron Rodgers. They both won
(42:17):
the MVP this season. They did that, So there is
a little bit of historical data where certain numbers he
needs to get to. I think they look better to
these beat writers and a lot of these people vote
on MVP, and I'm sure you've seen it. It's it's
already been a heated week. Patriots. Oh my god, it's
so much fun. Dania Laski just getting killed because his
agent reps Matthew Stafford's agent, and it's just they're coming
(42:39):
for you. If you have an opinion on this in
your sports media, they're really coming for you. And uh,
you know, it's we talked a little bit about it.
I think Stafford came on the show. He was over
plus three hundred the MVP. You've seen it come down
a little bit just because when I said, it's like,
this is opinionated award, there's no it doesn't matter if
Drake made is the big favorite here. It's it's really
based on these opinions and how well Stafford's agent can
sell it to all these people in media. When, like
(43:01):
I said, he's been around thirty seven years old, he's
been around a long time. That's going to ring true
in a lot of these media guys when they go
to vote. So you know, we're all in on this
Rams team. This is another spot where Arizona. We're really
big on Arizona being a team that quit here. That's
really what we're banking on here, because if you just
have a little bit of a letdown, like we've seen
this RAMS team, we can be so motivated. How do
(43:23):
they not put up thirty five forty points. We got
this Arizona defense shed, so I know it's very chalky.
I'm a bet by you on Tuesday, but I'm supporting.
I love this Rams team.
Speaker 1 (43:32):
It's a narrative award. People in the media love a narrative.
Simon says was the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a
half hosting the Baltimore Ravens in the last regular season
game of the year on Sunday Night Football. We're both
all in on the Pittsburgh Steelers. We're all in on
(43:53):
Mike Tomlin rah rah, We're all in on the Steelers
as an underdog. We're all in on Aaron Rodgers. I'm
mostly in because I think this Ravens defense has proven
to be a fraud against the pass. As the season
is going on. They haven't gotten better. They can be
taken in the middle of the field. They keep getting confused.
I'm tired of seeing Kyle Hamilton and Roquons with trying
(44:15):
to work it out after a big play like they
just haven't been good. I'm betting against the Ravens. I'm
betting on Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 2 (44:23):
Let's roll, yeah, And it's such a fitting way for
us in the season right on this gross game, taking
the gross dog in a spot we always back Tomlins.
So you know, it's a really unique game since what
Chad's talking about here, it's a team that you kind
of throw out their records and you just blindly take
the dog. Historically, go down the record one more time,
(44:45):
just because it's my will always be my favorite stat
this series since two thousand and five, thirty twelve and
three of the dog in this matchup seventy one percent
in the regular season underdogs. So, whether it's Tomlin's underdog
or Harball's underdog, these two coaches on the matchup where
which every team is the underdog twenty five and seven
against the spread in their history. It's crazy, it really
(45:07):
is when you go back through all the data. Especially
you know when those Ben Roethlisberger years, right, they had
the three bees, they were dominant offensively, they were playing
against a banged up Flaco and a horrible Ravens team.
The Ravens kept winning those games, are covering and then
they flipped. When this Pittsburgh team has now been playing backups,
they've been covering winning. So I don't know about you,
I'm hoping it's Lamar. I know it sounds crazy, but
(45:31):
we talked about Lamar with this injury to his legs,
he's not had his superpower. He's not had his legs,
and that's that's such a weapon of his the miss
where you saw it with Stup Huntley. That felt like
that was a big difference in that Green Bay game,
like they just couldn't contain him, and when he would
break out and he'd use his legs, that was such
a weapon you saw that was lacking of that Ravens offense.
So we'll see today. I think Lamar is participating their walkthrough.
(45:54):
You Hopefully he gets clear today and he should be
the quarterback here and maybe we get a four net
a four or four and a half by kickoff because
Lamar is the quarterback. But I'm grabbing the three and
a halfter just in case the professionals do come and
bet this one down. Now. I could see this one
coming down so unique spot. We love the Steelers here
and we blindly bet it. We will see what the
(46:15):
injury news is with Lamar, but you know, I just
can't see it affecting the line too much. And most
moves a point maybe a half a point he.
Speaker 1 (46:22):
Did practice, he is, They are confident he will play.
That's the latest series.
Speaker 2 (46:27):
So there you go, numbers. Maybe it won't, maybe I'm wrong,
Maybe it won't move because if Chad's give that infa,
that means that the books have known that for a
little bit. They have not budged. So that's that's really interesting.
So yet it's held at three and a half.
Speaker 1 (46:38):
Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half. Quick word from
our sponsor at hard Rock Back. We'll come back on
either side. Today's show is brought to you by our
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in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. All right, salmon hunter,
what are your biggest bets?
Speaker 2 (49:07):
Pull up fose pants and be a man before I
do it. A couple asked about futures. I'll do it
super quick, just from before the season, asking what I
have left from our show that got lost in the shuffle.
I basically need a miracle. I need the bills to
somehow for Super Bowl. Futures this says I need a miracle.
I need the Bills some how to make the Super Bowl,
to beat the forty nine ers at plus sixty five
(49:30):
to one, So that's the one I've left. Obviously, I
gave out the Eagles to over the Chiefs. That one's
deader than dead, forty nine ers to be the ones
in the NFC plus seven hundred still alive. I couldn't
believe it. I gave out worst record Arizona Cardinals seventy
five to one. I have a couple of tickets on
that one game away. There are three I think three
and thirteen are three and fourteen. Obviously, the Raiders have
(49:52):
two losses, so that one was really close to coming
out and still alive. Most receiving yards Jackson Smith ADJIGBA
five to one. He is leading by I think seventy yards.
So yeah, not not the best year for the future.
That's why we give out crazy long shots. You're always
crazy stuff for this week biggest bets. Like I said,
(50:13):
it's a little a little weird because it is the
week before the playoffs and there's so much college football
going on. Biggest vision I took obviously early in the week,
I took a large special on the Minnesota Vikings. Took
a large position just because I thought that Green Bay
wouldn't be playing their starters. I number has moved to
luckily accordingly, I took a pretty big position on this,
(50:35):
this forty nine Ers team at plus one and a half.
I'm a little worried about it because, like I said,
it is the pros are so heavily on the other side.
So you know, if you want to join me in
my prime my bigger bet for Saturday, I'll take Carolina
up to seven and a half. I'll take the forty
nine Ers up to seven and a half. It's probably
(50:55):
minus one twenty, maybe minus one ten, just because Carolina's
now is up back up the plus three. The juice
is in two bead, but I like both of them
to cover at least being a touchdown underdog. I just
can't see the forty Niners game blun or Carolina again
blend on these type of games. Just you see timetime again, right,
Teams fighting for a divisional divisional games that this sides
playoff positioning tend to be very close games. So I
(51:17):
do like that. I wouldn't tease it because teasers now
are rip off. I think if you tease this, it's
like minus one forty. You don't need the Panthers mine
or plus nine and a half. Just stake the number
up to just as seven and a half. That's me
and one of my bigger bets. And people know Chad's
already talking a little bit about it. Cincinnati, love that side,
Love the Rams. I'm just putting their money lines together,
(51:39):
taking a pretty big bet on both those sides, just
to win straight up. But yeah, like I said, very
very wonky week, it's just be careful because it's really
the pros heading these lines. The public usually set this
week out just because it is such a wild week.
Speaker 1 (51:55):
Speaking of money lines, money line underdog parlay. My dog
blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot Dog. I've got Pittsburgh, Carolina,
San Francisco, New Orleans love it, money line favorite. You
(52:19):
just mentioned two of them. I had Cincinnati and the Rams.
I have Denver minus five and a half. I got Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (52:31):
I don't know it. Like again, it's it's a weird
week where like Dallas, I like, I like Philly. I
know Philly's playing their backups, but Tany McKee just looks
like an absolute stud, Like I think this coulduld be
a starter. And this is the exact type of game
where you know he knows he's playing for that right,
he's playing for that Matt Flynn type of deal. He
wants that Matt Flynn money. So yeah, I like the Eagles.
(52:53):
Now the numbers move so much. I said, if you
could got if you got a guy watching it, plus seven,
that that was a really nice number. But now that
it's under seven, shout the Egos money line. I think
that's good value there. So yeah, there's a bunch of
ways you can mismash. If you don't love the Devers,
then we're line that Chad gave out. I don't hate
throwing Dallas's money line in their the Egos money line,
but yet Rams money line. Since these money line like these,
(53:15):
we've seen time with taking them these big favorites in
the week eighteen, these teams do tend to show up
with these other teams. They're already ready for that vacation.
They're just they're just there to get that paycheck.
Speaker 1 (53:25):
Sure versus Square, Who do you got? Uh?
Speaker 2 (53:32):
I guess I got it, Doe, because I've just hyped
it up so much of this point. Give me give
me the forty nine ers plus one plus one and
a half.
Speaker 1 (53:40):
I am taking the Cincinnati Bengals. I'll take the seven
and a half.
Speaker 2 (53:45):
You are Rams seven and a half and then Bengals
seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (53:47):
I know I thought about that. One of them is
gonna lose obviously.
Speaker 2 (53:51):
Now I don't know. I'm win you. I' drinking the koolid.
I like them both, all.
Speaker 1 (53:56):
Right, listen, Happy New Year to everybody. We're all Hoosiers today,
go Indiana Hoosiers. Fight, Fight Fight. This has been Sharper Square,
part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back
on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. You'll get the
East drop on an intimate conversation where we make decisions
we will regret. Watch or listen on Sharper Square on YouTube.
(54:23):
You can also download us some Spotify Apple Pods wherever
you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, levi us five
stars say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift until Sunday.
I love you.
Speaker 2 (54:35):
This ain't Ray Nitchkei and Dick Buck some Deacon Jones
over there, So let's start kicking some hats. This team
is not better enough than not even good
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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