January 7, 2025 • 19 mins
Michael Ginnitti from Spotrac joins Dave Softy Mahler and Dick Fain to talk about big contract situations for John Schneider and the Seahawks to figure out in 2025 including Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker, plus other huge NFL contracts.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, joining us right now on the radio show,
(00:02):
and Michael Jeannetti is with us. And Michael, we've just decided,
because we're stupid and every year we ask you and
every year we forget, Uh, we're just gonna make sure
that we know how to pronounce the name of your
website spoke track or spa track.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Just remind us because we're dumb every single year.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Not as dumb as the person who named it. Right,
So it's spa.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Track, spa track track.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
There you go, just think at genuars all right, spa Track,
spa track dot com. Well, Michael Jeannetti is with us,
and Mike, it's great to have you on the air.
Kind of turning into a tradition for us. And I'll
be honest with you. I think I can speak for
Dick as well that whenever we need contract information, your
website is the first place we go. And we can
always tell by the way how many people are on
(00:45):
the website, by how slow it takes the pages to load.
It's actually awesome when there's a lot of activity on
the site. But why don't we just start with what's
happening here in Seattle? And we'll start with Geno Smith,
you know, had a decent year, not a phenomenal year,
but he's got a We had a forty four and
a half million dollar cap hit for twenty twenty five.
Talk to us about Geno's financial situation and how you
(01:07):
think this whole thing plays out.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Yeah, you hit the nail. It's been kind of status quo, right.
He's been consistently slightly above average for his recent tenure
here and that's resulted in what I thought was an
undervalued extension in twenty twenty three, and now we're into
into the last season of that and it's kind of
the make or break year, right, So it's been year
to year. You mentioned the high cap hit that's been escalated,
(01:30):
of course by the six million that he aired at
the final final game of the season. None of that
is guaranteed, really, none of this is guaranteed, right, So
we can walk away from this thing right now and
free up thirty one million in for Seattle. That's the
million dollar question. I'm sure everybody's talking about around your
neck of the woods and really kind of nationally because
you know, there aren't too many quarterback holes across the
(01:50):
league right now. It's one of those down years and
unfortunately a down draft year as well, So you know,
are a lot of teams just going to kind of
keep things as they have it right now and wait
for that twenty twenty six draft. I'm I'm tempted to
say yes, And that's sort of the way I'm going
to frame this conversation, which is, are we just going
to leave things as we are here at the forty
(02:10):
four and a half million, Maybe do a slight salary
cap conversion on that for roster construction purposes, but just
ride this thing into twenty twenty six. Yeah. When I know,
I know a lot of teams have been eyeing some big,
big arms coming out of the draft. I have to
lean that way right now because I don't think Geno's
been poor enough from a production standpoint, and maybe even
from a winning perspective, right ten ten wins and unfortunately
(02:33):
not a playoffs to go with it, but everything kind
of kind of points to good enough for now, and
this really isn't a year to rip off a band
aid when there's just not something else pumped, you know,
to back so with that's going to excite the fanbase
and you know, really get yourself into a ten win
situation again.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Take me real quick.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
So, Mike, you think that they will just roll with
that forty four and a half figure for next year.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Yeah, there's a lot of reasons.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Not too right.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
There's a lot of reasons to give yourself a two
year to your cushion to make him happy. Right, you
don't want to have an umbattled player that has that
position even for one season. But I think you can
come to an agreement, especially with the escalations hitting and
him being now being over thirty million. Like I can
say right now, mathematically, he's a thirty one million dollar
player in our system. So he's exactly where he should
(03:18):
be for one season. And if he can live with that,
and I think Seattle can too, then that it seems
like that's exactly what should happen, at least through twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 4 (03:26):
We've heard the words escalator and incentive a lot over
the last week or so. Can you explain the difference
between an escalator and an incentive.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
Yeah, there's a big one, and one of them is
cash paid out to you immediately, and one of them
is not right. So the incentive is a bonus that's
written in for the current year that you're playing, which is,
you know, many of these smaller things you've seen over
the past couple of weeks here in the NFL, two
hundred and fifty thousand, five hundred thousand dollars. That's a
payment that's happening right now to these players. That then
has to be a credit to the salary cap. The escalator,
(03:57):
which is what Geo Smith has here, is simply if
you reach a threshold this year, your next year's salary
will escalate by the amount that's written into your contract.
So six million for Gino Smith. It's not guaranteed. It's
very very rarely guarantee you. There's been one or two
instances in the twenty years I've been doing this where
I've seen a guaranteed escalator. This is not one of them.
So it's it's somewhat fool's gold a little bit. Right.
(04:19):
You're earning the ability to earn more next year as
long as you're on the roster next year.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Well, Mike, you kind of said that their residents want
to go back and just kind of go over this
again so they can get out of it for thirteen
to five and dead money for next year. If they
did that, and this may fall out of your level
of expertise. I don't think it does. I mean, you've
been around this a long enough time. Nothing, thank you exactly. Yeah, Mike,
where was Yoda born? Tell us that answer? Okay, But
(04:46):
if they did just decide to cut them loose and
said we're just gonna move on, We're gonna we have
our eyes on a bunch of quarterbacks in the draft,
we know one of them will be there for us.
What kind of market would there be for Gino Smith's
serve if they cut him loose and he hit the
free agent market.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Boy, this is a million dollar question with every quarterback
I'm assessing this year, right, brock Pardy Sam Turnold. Just
how many teams are actually in on their services if
free agency becomes the possibility. I can't say there's gonna
be more than one or two, right, I Mean? The
Raiders seem like the team that is sort of in
the middle, you know, the black hole right now, no
(05:24):
pun intended. That's that's the one team that I think
could be in an everybody. I thought Tennessee would be
that team as well, because they were somewhat serviceable defensively,
and now they've got the number one pick. That's not
a team for this. So you know, when you don't
have a Bidnymore to go with even a quarterback, things
are gonna come down. He falls right back into the
(05:45):
one for five, the one for seven with a ton
of incentives if he starts ballgames, which is where every
sort of fringe QB two is in football right now,
even the ones that you know have MVPs and Super
Bowls attached to him, like Joe Flacco and Carson Wentz.
It's just a quick fall. And that's what I assume
for thirty three ye old Gina Smith. If if this
is what happens.
Speaker 4 (06:05):
In March, Michael Jennety capexpert from spot track dot Com,
and Michael, let's just talk Seahawks overall with Gino next year.
Where would they stand cap wise and how flexible are
they to pay that.
Speaker 5 (06:17):
Forty four and a half million dollars to Geno.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Yeah, they're in a pretty decent shape right now. There's
a lot of bigger contracts, so I'm sure you're aware
of that can be converted and pushed around, as many
teams will do throughout the year. But for the most part,
you know, they're a little bit under it right now
in terms of projected projected two hundred and seventy five million.
There may be minus eleven in terms of how we're
projecting them right now, but this is one of the
more healthier rosters in terms of being being flexible and
(06:43):
being able to push some things around. Now, Hyler Lockett,
as you've probably talked about a lot, he's probably falling
off of this roster. That's twenty million right there. You
know there's a dk METCF contract to talk about here
where you're gonna free up some cap space. So yeah,
it's not all we got to rip the band aid
off and just kind of of like maybe the Saints
have to do on an annual basis. It's some adding
(07:04):
ands and subtracting which should get them into the twenties
and maybe even the thirties by March twelfth.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Well, Michael jennettispot track dot com is with us.
Speaker 1 (07:12):
Let's just go to lock it. Because you mentioned thirty
point eight million dollar cap number for next year. A
lot of people just assumed that the Ram game was
his last game as a Hawk.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Do you believe that too?
Speaker 3 (07:22):
I do. It seems like the writing Mazona has been
on the wall Whenever you see a renegotiation like he
did before twenty twenty four, generally that's the one and
done scenario that we get to, and you could just
see it on the field. He was he was moved
into that third role. He was sort of mentoring in
Jigmasmith for quite of this season here, and it looks
like he's going to walk into a different situation. He said,
he's not done. I believe he's not done because if
(07:44):
you just kind of do some quick mass on his production,
whatever you opportunities do give him, he is consistently producing,
and when you take away some of those opportunities, the
math sort of works out. So if you find a team,
you know, similar to what Adam Tealand did when he
left Minnesota and with the Carolina at the same age
that Tyler Lockett is right now, you can still see
(08:04):
really good WR two WR three production out of these
players that have these consistent production lines over their years.
So I expect him to find something somewhere. It might
even be multi year, you know, something around the two
for fourteen mark, and I think it'll be a continued
career for Tyler Bluckett.
Speaker 4 (08:21):
Then there's DK and he's just an enigma financially, because
he's paid like a top flight wide receiver, he is
gonna want an extension like he's a top flight wide receiver,
and he doesn't put up top flight wide receiver numbers.
So what does your model say that DK is worth
in his next contract, which will come probably this offseason
(08:41):
because he's only got one.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
More year left.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Yeah, that's perfectly framed. That's exactly what the math wants
you to say right there, which is, I know where
he's been, I know where he's coming from, I know
what he signed for two and a half years ago,
and you're right, they're gonna do something to work on
that cap hit and an extension makes the most sense.
But I don't have him making much more than he's
make right now that the mass currently says about twenty
seven and a half million per year, and in the
(09:04):
grand scheme of things, we've got ride receivers at thirty
five a year now and that's only going to go
higher with Jamar Chase's contract this year, So he's not
gonna like that. I don't think it's only a slight
raise over his twenty five per year right now. But
that's just sort of the going rate for what he's
doing and his age, and this might be one of
his last big extensions. I think that's probably going to
be his feeling about twenty seven to twenty eight per year.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
Yeah, Michael jennetdispat track dot Com is with us. Tarik
Wollen was a bit of a surprise his rookie year
and then kind of fell off a little bit. I
know McDonald said he had a good year this year,
but he's got one year left and is an original
rookie four year deal and I think after his rookie year,
a lot of us thought by now he would be
an extension talks on a brand new contract. But do
(09:45):
the Seahawks, you think, do that or do they let
this thing ride with Tarik for one more year?
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Yeah, you're right, a little bit inconsistent, a little bit
up and down. He is going to qualify for that
proven performance bonus, which is going to make his salary
go from one million to five million this year. So
is that an enough to keep him happy? Probably not,
but at least it's something, right, It's something that most
rookies get at the end of their rookie contract. Here,
he's not a type top flight valued cornerback right now.
(10:11):
But the problem is is even if I have him
at sixteen seventeen million per year, which is kind of
tier three, you're gonna have some massive contracts at this
position this offseason. Derek Soon, junior soft gardner, Trent McDuffie,
Marlin Humphrey. There's going to be some massive twenty five
twenty six million per year contracts, which is going to
bring everybody up with it. So waiting is going to
get expensive if you expect to retain this guy after
(10:33):
twenty twenty five. So it's that mind game, right you
try to get him in him at sixteen eighteen per
year now or is that going to be twenty twenty
two in a year from now?
Speaker 5 (10:41):
Well, Hawks have a bargain at running back.
Speaker 4 (10:43):
I mean, they're paying ken Walker two point seven million
dollars next year, but it's his last year of his contract.
So what does ken Walker do this offseasons? Is he
go knock on the door and see.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
If he can get an extension. If so, what do
you think he's worth?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Yeah, the math says about nine. But man, you know
they've done such a nice job of handcuffing him really
really out of the Gate, as you know, and that's
sort of the recipe here, right that's the recipe with
what you have to do. You kind of draft one
every year and hope that every single one of them
can produce for you, because it's just the kind of
a revolving door in terms of both the production and
how the finances are working. Right now, I don't see
(11:20):
him as one of those guys that's going to be
able to hold out and get you know, Jonathan Taylor
thirteen fourteen per year right now, even though we've had
a nice little twelve eighteen month stint here with these
running backs sort of resurrecting things, he's just been injured
too much. The production's been somewhat inconsistent, and like we're
talking about, Zach Sharboney does exist right now, so all
the things are against him. But if you can get
(11:40):
him in on something that's team friendly and you believe
it's worth it for two to three years, those are
the kind of deals we'd like to see right now
at this position.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Well, Michael Jennyspots Treck dot Com, and Mike before we
just move on to a couple guys outside the Seahawks
and we're just cleaning something up for Gino. So Gino's
contract next year is not guaranteed his incentives he earned
in the RAM game, are is that correct?
Speaker 3 (11:59):
No? No, nothing is yet, So that actilator just rolls over.
But in March sixteenth, when that roster bonus is paid,
that's a bit the first big mark. So that's the
deadline we're all talking about here for Gino Smith.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Wow, gotcha? All right?
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Well, let's talk about the other team of the division
that has a quarterback issue, brock Purty. What are my
favorite quarterback? What happens there? Dick loves him, He hopes
he makes a hundred million. Yeah, because I'm a Seahawk fan.
I want him to make a hundred million.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
What do you think they do with brock perty Man.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
Look, I'm one of those guys that's had a flip
flop on this. Okay, I've been valuing him as a
top quarterback because quite frankly, he's been top quarterback. I'm
one of the top teams in the league. And we
saw a very different version of that this year. So
it's the same conversation we're having with Gino, which is,
if brock Purty holds out and tries to walk away
from this situation. Is there a team that's willing to
pay him two hundred million guaranteed. I just don't see it.
(12:48):
I don't think there's a team out there that will
risk that versus just saying let's go back to the
well and try to find even a second round pick
that can do just as much as brock Purty. I
like him, and the math likes him, and the advanced
metrics like, he's got a lot of things on his side.
But I really do believe at the end of the day,
San Francisco can put their foot down and say we
want you here. We're gonna fully guarantee three years. It's
(13:09):
just not gonna be at fifty five to sixty million
a year. It's gonna look more like forty to forty five.
And when he's not happy about that and tries the
whole out, I think they're just gonna play the long game,
like they've done with Nick Bosa, like they've done with
Brandon Ayuk and even to some degree, Christian McCaffrey when
he did his redo last year. So he's just in
a bad spot on a team that really kind of
(13:31):
wins these conversations more than not and unfortunately this is
gonna be one of those first quarterbacks to really fall
back a little bit financially because he doesn't have as
much power as really thirty one other team's quarterbacks have
had in the past.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
Well, and also because haven't we seen cautionary tales I
mean Tua Tongua Bai looa Dak Prescott. I mean you're
seeing these good to slightly better than good quarterbacks get
a lead money and none of those teams are winning.
Speaker 5 (13:58):
So maybe teams are saying we're done with that.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
Right, if you don't deserve it, you shouldn't go to
the top of the market, right, And that's been sort
of the enigma for the quarterback position, which is this
specific position. If you're even worth a little bit above average,
you're going to the top. So this could be the
start of something good. And the Baker Mayfields of the
world and you know, Smithial of the world to some
gree have also elevated that conversation because you can take
(14:22):
somebody at you know, fifteen to twenty million below that
top top value and make everything work around it. So
I do think teams are smartening up a little bit,
and certainly that front office in San Francisco is one
of those organizations that will put their foot down.
Speaker 1 (14:35):
I'm gonna I'm gonna do an impression here, and I'm
gonna tell you who I'm impersonating after I give you
the impression. Mike, all right, Michael Jeannetti spot track dot Com,
You're ready.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Here we go. Here's the impression. Son of a bitch.
You know what that was.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
I was Sam Darnold's agent watching the Lion game on Sunday, That's.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
What that was.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
What did that game do to his potential earnings? Obviously
he's got playoff games coming up, so chances to redeem himself.
But I mean, in all honesty, you got McCarthy's sitting
there coming off to the knee injury. What do you
think the Vikings do with Donald? How did they handle
that situation?
Speaker 3 (15:09):
It's wild. We just don't have this. We don't have
guys come in and you know, beholdover guys that turn
into forty five million dollars players in the course of
twelve months. I still think at the end of the day,
even if the playoffs go as bad as possible, right,
even if it looks a lot more like it did
last week, I still think he's a franchise dad candidate
(15:30):
because you want to hold his rights, You want to
have the ability to have him on your roster because
so much has gone right with this offense and him
running it. So I just think even at thirty nine
and a half million dollars, which is where we're projecting
that tag, and that's a lot of enchiladas, I get it,
But at that position for one year, I think it's
worth the risk. I think he'll sign that tag when
(15:50):
he knows there's not another option out there for him,
and then you just slow play the McCarthy situation. And
if Donald is unbelievable again in twenty twenty five, it's
a big mess. But now you just go pay the
twitter million dollars and you trade JJ McCarthy.
Speaker 5 (16:04):
How about Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 4 (16:06):
Now that our friend Michael Pennix looks like he's going
to be the starting quarterback of the Falcons for the
next decade, what can Atlanta do with kirk Cousins.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
Well, but for sure going to release him. I don't
think they're being shy about that. They're gonna eat the
guaranteed money this coming year, that they want to pay
the extra ten million that vests in March. They're going
to take on gigantic dead cab hits. We've seen this
go awful. We've seen this go pretty well over the
past couple of seasons. So it's really on them just
to sort of bite the bite down and and and
take their medicine and understand that you can't stop roster
(16:38):
building even though you've got this one guy that didn't
work out. And for Cousins specifically, I don't think he's
done right. I feel like there is a team out
there that's looking for this one year kind of passwork
situation at least to see if they can have him compete.
I'd put Indianapolis very much in that in that right now,
I think the Colts are probably the favorites for kirk Cousins.
You could talk me into San Francisco if the party
stuff goes sour in terms of negotiation. So I think
(17:01):
there's a home for him. And by the way, it's
Russell Wilson two point zero because he's been paid fully
in Atlanta. We're talking about one point three million for
kirk Cousins next year.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 1 (17:12):
I kind of want to let you go and have
you get back to your daily life and you got
stuff to do. But I keep coming up with stuff
I want to ask you, and I'm blaming you because
you just mentioned Russell Wilson right there. What happens to
Russell Wilson?
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Man talk about going south? Here? You know, there's there's
a world now statistically where Justin Fields had a better
twenty twenty four than Russell Wilson did in Pittsburgh. So
you have to think that internally, they're talking about everything
right now, which is who do we bring back? Do
we bring back either of them? Do we just go
back to the draft, start releasing and trading everybody and
(17:45):
start over. I still think in a similar vein, I
still think bringing back Russell Wilson to Pittsburgh on something
extremely incentive based makes the most sense, at least for
one more season, and then it might be a heck
of a lot of Now, what do we do in
Pittsburgh in twenty twenty for the first time maybe in
twenty years? Right? So, yeah, I think he's pretty safe.
There're still but you can you can talk me out
(18:06):
of it quickly with what we see this coming weekend
in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Mike, You're the man. Great stuff. Keep up the good work.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Honestly, man, I feel like when Wikipedia goes on a
fundraising tour, you guys should be doing the same thing
because we use your website a lot. People in this
business use your website a lot to reference stuff, man,
so you should be proud of that. You know how
many people in this industry are referencing your stuff on
your page at spot track, spo, t r ac dot com.
Great stuff, Keep it up and we'll talk soon, man.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
Mike, I appreciate it. Guys. Thank you.
Speaker 1 (18:37):
You bet Michael Jinnetti with us on the radio show.
So you're telling me that all that hub up about
the incentives may be for nothing.
Speaker 5 (18:42):
From the game on Sunday, it was not guaranteed U
till March fifteen.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Oh my god.
Speaker 5 (18:48):
I about the Kirk Cousins thing. You want Kirk Cousins
for one million dollars?
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Yes, yeah, I do too, Yeah, absolutely for a million bucks.
I mean you can cut you know, save it for
thirteen and a half.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
So there's your bill.
Speaker 4 (19:00):
Cost you fifteen million dollars for your quarterback, correct, and
you have Kirk Cousins instead is Gino and you're saving
thirty million dollars.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
Now.
Speaker 5 (19:08):
I hear people right now saying Kirk Cousins sucks.
Speaker 4 (19:10):
Well, he's still coming off an Achilles injury and that
may be one of the reasons why he sucked last year,
and he might actually be better next year than he was
last year.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
So Gino Smith for forty four and a half million,
Kirk Kirk Cousins for fifteen four nine, four y five
one next on ninety three three KHIRFM
All right, joining us right now on the radio show,
(00:02):
and Michael Jeannetti is with us. And Michael, we've just decided,
because we're stupid and every year we ask you and
every year we forget, Uh, we're just gonna make sure
that we know how to pronounce the name of your
website spoke track or spa track.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Just remind us because we're dumb every single year.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Not as dumb as the person who named it. Right,
So it's spa.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Track, spa track track.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
There you go, just think at genuars all right, spa Track,
spa track dot com. Well, Michael Jeannetti is with us,
and Mike, it's great to have you on the air.
Kind of turning into a tradition for us. And I'll
be honest with you. I think I can speak for
Dick as well that whenever we need contract information, your
website is the first place we go. And we can
always tell by the way how many people are on
(00:45):
the website, by how slow it takes the pages to load.
It's actually awesome when there's a lot of activity on
the site. But why don't we just start with what's
happening here in Seattle? And we'll start with Geno Smith,
you know, had a decent year, not a phenomenal year,
but he's got a We had a forty four and
a half million dollar cap hit for twenty twenty five.
Talk to us about Geno's financial situation and how you
(01:07):
think this whole thing plays out.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Yeah, you hit the nail. It's been kind of status quo, right.
He's been consistently slightly above average for his recent tenure
here and that's resulted in what I thought was an
undervalued extension in twenty twenty three, and now we're into
into the last season of that and it's kind of
the make or break year, right, So it's been year
to year. You mentioned the high cap hit that's been escalated,
(01:30):
of course by the six million that he aired at
the final final game of the season. None of that
is guaranteed, really, none of this is guaranteed, right, So
we can walk away from this thing right now and
free up thirty one million in for Seattle. That's the
million dollar question. I'm sure everybody's talking about around your
neck of the woods and really kind of nationally because
you know, there aren't too many quarterback holes across the
(01:50):
league right now. It's one of those down years and
unfortunately a down draft year as well, So you know,
are a lot of teams just going to kind of
keep things as they have it right now and wait
for that twenty twenty six draft. I'm I'm tempted to
say yes, And that's sort of the way I'm going
to frame this conversation, which is, are we just going
to leave things as we are here at the forty
(02:10):
four and a half million, Maybe do a slight salary
cap conversion on that for roster construction purposes, but just
ride this thing into twenty twenty six. Yeah. When I know,
I know a lot of teams have been eyeing some big,
big arms coming out of the draft. I have to
lean that way right now because I don't think Geno's
been poor enough from a production standpoint, and maybe even
from a winning perspective, right ten ten wins and unfortunately
(02:33):
not a playoffs to go with it, but everything kind
of kind of points to good enough for now, and
this really isn't a year to rip off a band
aid when there's just not something else pumped, you know,
to back so with that's going to excite the fanbase
and you know, really get yourself into a ten win
situation again.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Take me real quick.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
So, Mike, you think that they will just roll with
that forty four and a half figure for next year.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Yeah, there's a lot of reasons.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Not too right.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
There's a lot of reasons to give yourself a two
year to your cushion to make him happy. Right, you
don't want to have an umbattled player that has that
position even for one season. But I think you can
come to an agreement, especially with the escalations hitting and
him being now being over thirty million. Like I can
say right now, mathematically, he's a thirty one million dollar
player in our system. So he's exactly where he should
(03:18):
be for one season. And if he can live with that,
and I think Seattle can too, then that it seems
like that's exactly what should happen, at least through twenty
twenty five.
Speaker 4 (03:26):
We've heard the words escalator and incentive a lot over
the last week or so. Can you explain the difference
between an escalator and an incentive.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
Yeah, there's a big one, and one of them is
cash paid out to you immediately, and one of them
is not right. So the incentive is a bonus that's
written in for the current year that you're playing, which is,
you know, many of these smaller things you've seen over
the past couple of weeks here in the NFL, two
hundred and fifty thousand, five hundred thousand dollars. That's a
payment that's happening right now to these players. That then
has to be a credit to the salary cap. The escalator,
(03:57):
which is what Geo Smith has here, is simply if
you reach a threshold this year, your next year's salary
will escalate by the amount that's written into your contract.
So six million for Gino Smith. It's not guaranteed. It's
very very rarely guarantee you. There's been one or two
instances in the twenty years I've been doing this where
I've seen a guaranteed escalator. This is not one of them.
So it's it's somewhat fool's gold a little bit. Right.
(04:19):
You're earning the ability to earn more next year as
long as you're on the roster next year.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Well, Mike, you kind of said that their residents want
to go back and just kind of go over this
again so they can get out of it for thirteen
to five and dead money for next year. If they
did that, and this may fall out of your level
of expertise. I don't think it does. I mean, you've
been around this a long enough time. Nothing, thank you exactly. Yeah, Mike,
where was Yoda born? Tell us that answer? Okay, But
(04:46):
if they did just decide to cut them loose and
said we're just gonna move on, We're gonna we have
our eyes on a bunch of quarterbacks in the draft,
we know one of them will be there for us.
What kind of market would there be for Gino Smith's
serve if they cut him loose and he hit the
free agent market.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Boy, this is a million dollar question with every quarterback
I'm assessing this year, right, brock Pardy Sam Turnold. Just
how many teams are actually in on their services if
free agency becomes the possibility. I can't say there's gonna
be more than one or two, right, I Mean? The
Raiders seem like the team that is sort of in
the middle, you know, the black hole right now, no
(05:24):
pun intended. That's that's the one team that I think
could be in an everybody. I thought Tennessee would be
that team as well, because they were somewhat serviceable defensively,
and now they've got the number one pick. That's not
a team for this. So you know, when you don't
have a Bidnymore to go with even a quarterback, things
are gonna come down. He falls right back into the
(05:45):
one for five, the one for seven with a ton
of incentives if he starts ballgames, which is where every
sort of fringe QB two is in football right now,
even the ones that you know have MVPs and Super
Bowls attached to him, like Joe Flacco and Carson Wentz.
It's just a quick fall. And that's what I assume
for thirty three ye old Gina Smith. If if this
is what happens.
Speaker 4 (06:05):
In March, Michael Jennety capexpert from spot track dot Com,
and Michael, let's just talk Seahawks overall with Gino next year.
Where would they stand cap wise and how flexible are
they to pay that.
Speaker 5 (06:17):
Forty four and a half million dollars to Geno.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Yeah, they're in a pretty decent shape right now. There's
a lot of bigger contracts, so I'm sure you're aware
of that can be converted and pushed around, as many
teams will do throughout the year. But for the most part,
you know, they're a little bit under it right now
in terms of projected projected two hundred and seventy five million.
There may be minus eleven in terms of how we're
projecting them right now, but this is one of the
more healthier rosters in terms of being being flexible and
(06:43):
being able to push some things around. Now, Hyler Lockett,
as you've probably talked about a lot, he's probably falling
off of this roster. That's twenty million right there. You
know there's a dk METCF contract to talk about here
where you're gonna free up some cap space. So yeah,
it's not all we got to rip the band aid
off and just kind of of like maybe the Saints
have to do on an annual basis. It's some adding
(07:04):
ands and subtracting which should get them into the twenties
and maybe even the thirties by March twelfth.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Well, Michael jennettispot track dot com is with us.
Speaker 1 (07:12):
Let's just go to lock it. Because you mentioned thirty
point eight million dollar cap number for next year. A
lot of people just assumed that the Ram game was
his last game as a Hawk.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Do you believe that too?
Speaker 3 (07:22):
I do. It seems like the writing Mazona has been
on the wall Whenever you see a renegotiation like he
did before twenty twenty four, generally that's the one and
done scenario that we get to, and you could just
see it on the field. He was he was moved
into that third role. He was sort of mentoring in
Jigmasmith for quite of this season here, and it looks
like he's going to walk into a different situation. He said,
he's not done. I believe he's not done because if
(07:44):
you just kind of do some quick mass on his production,
whatever you opportunities do give him, he is consistently producing,
and when you take away some of those opportunities, the
math sort of works out. So if you find a team,
you know, similar to what Adam Tealand did when he
left Minnesota and with the Carolina at the same age
that Tyler Lockett is right now, you can still see
(08:04):
really good WR two WR three production out of these
players that have these consistent production lines over their years.
So I expect him to find something somewhere. It might
even be multi year, you know, something around the two
for fourteen mark, and I think it'll be a continued
career for Tyler Bluckett.
Speaker 4 (08:21):
Then there's DK and he's just an enigma financially, because
he's paid like a top flight wide receiver, he is
gonna want an extension like he's a top flight wide receiver,
and he doesn't put up top flight wide receiver numbers.
So what does your model say that DK is worth
in his next contract, which will come probably this offseason
(08:41):
because he's only got one.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
More year left.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Yeah, that's perfectly framed. That's exactly what the math wants
you to say right there, which is, I know where
he's been, I know where he's coming from, I know
what he signed for two and a half years ago,
and you're right, they're gonna do something to work on
that cap hit and an extension makes the most sense.
But I don't have him making much more than he's
make right now that the mass currently says about twenty
seven and a half million per year, and in the
(09:04):
grand scheme of things, we've got ride receivers at thirty
five a year now and that's only going to go
higher with Jamar Chase's contract this year, So he's not
gonna like that. I don't think it's only a slight
raise over his twenty five per year right now. But
that's just sort of the going rate for what he's
doing and his age, and this might be one of
his last big extensions. I think that's probably going to
be his feeling about twenty seven to twenty eight per year.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
Yeah, Michael jennetdispat track dot Com is with us. Tarik
Wollen was a bit of a surprise his rookie year
and then kind of fell off a little bit. I
know McDonald said he had a good year this year,
but he's got one year left and is an original
rookie four year deal and I think after his rookie year,
a lot of us thought by now he would be
an extension talks on a brand new contract. But do
(09:45):
the Seahawks, you think, do that or do they let
this thing ride with Tarik for one more year?
Speaker 3 (09:50):
Yeah, you're right, a little bit inconsistent, a little bit
up and down. He is going to qualify for that
proven performance bonus, which is going to make his salary
go from one million to five million this year. So
is that an enough to keep him happy? Probably not,
but at least it's something, right, It's something that most
rookies get at the end of their rookie contract. Here,
he's not a type top flight valued cornerback right now.
(10:11):
But the problem is is even if I have him
at sixteen seventeen million per year, which is kind of
tier three, you're gonna have some massive contracts at this
position this offseason. Derek Soon, junior soft gardner, Trent McDuffie,
Marlin Humphrey. There's going to be some massive twenty five
twenty six million per year contracts, which is going to
bring everybody up with it. So waiting is going to
get expensive if you expect to retain this guy after
(10:33):
twenty twenty five. So it's that mind game, right you
try to get him in him at sixteen eighteen per
year now or is that going to be twenty twenty
two in a year from now?
Speaker 5 (10:41):
Well, Hawks have a bargain at running back.
Speaker 4 (10:43):
I mean, they're paying ken Walker two point seven million
dollars next year, but it's his last year of his contract.
So what does ken Walker do this offseasons? Is he
go knock on the door and see.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
If he can get an extension. If so, what do
you think he's worth?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Yeah, the math says about nine. But man, you know
they've done such a nice job of handcuffing him really
really out of the Gate, as you know, and that's
sort of the recipe here, right that's the recipe with
what you have to do. You kind of draft one
every year and hope that every single one of them
can produce for you, because it's just the kind of
a revolving door in terms of both the production and
how the finances are working. Right now, I don't see
(11:20):
him as one of those guys that's going to be
able to hold out and get you know, Jonathan Taylor
thirteen fourteen per year right now, even though we've had
a nice little twelve eighteen month stint here with these
running backs sort of resurrecting things, he's just been injured
too much. The production's been somewhat inconsistent, and like we're
talking about, Zach Sharboney does exist right now, so all
the things are against him. But if you can get
(11:40):
him in on something that's team friendly and you believe
it's worth it for two to three years, those are
the kind of deals we'd like to see right now
at this position.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Well, Michael Jennyspots Treck dot Com, and Mike before we
just move on to a couple guys outside the Seahawks
and we're just cleaning something up for Gino. So Gino's
contract next year is not guaranteed his incentives he earned
in the RAM game, are is that correct?
Speaker 3 (11:59):
No? No, nothing is yet, So that actilator just rolls over.
But in March sixteenth, when that roster bonus is paid,
that's a bit the first big mark. So that's the
deadline we're all talking about here for Gino Smith.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Wow, gotcha? All right?
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Well, let's talk about the other team of the division
that has a quarterback issue, brock Purty. What are my
favorite quarterback? What happens there? Dick loves him, He hopes
he makes a hundred million. Yeah, because I'm a Seahawk fan.
I want him to make a hundred million.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
What do you think they do with brock perty Man.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
Look, I'm one of those guys that's had a flip
flop on this. Okay, I've been valuing him as a
top quarterback because quite frankly, he's been top quarterback. I'm
one of the top teams in the league. And we
saw a very different version of that this year. So
it's the same conversation we're having with Gino, which is,
if brock Purty holds out and tries to walk away
from this situation. Is there a team that's willing to
pay him two hundred million guaranteed. I just don't see it.
(12:48):
I don't think there's a team out there that will
risk that versus just saying let's go back to the
well and try to find even a second round pick
that can do just as much as brock Purty. I
like him, and the math likes him, and the advanced
metrics like, he's got a lot of things on his side.
But I really do believe at the end of the day,
San Francisco can put their foot down and say we
want you here. We're gonna fully guarantee three years. It's
(13:09):
just not gonna be at fifty five to sixty million
a year. It's gonna look more like forty to forty five.
And when he's not happy about that and tries the
whole out, I think they're just gonna play the long game,
like they've done with Nick Bosa, like they've done with
Brandon Ayuk and even to some degree, Christian McCaffrey when
he did his redo last year. So he's just in
a bad spot on a team that really kind of
(13:31):
wins these conversations more than not and unfortunately this is
gonna be one of those first quarterbacks to really fall
back a little bit financially because he doesn't have as
much power as really thirty one other team's quarterbacks have
had in the past.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
Well, and also because haven't we seen cautionary tales I
mean Tua Tongua Bai looa Dak Prescott. I mean you're
seeing these good to slightly better than good quarterbacks get
a lead money and none of those teams are winning.
Speaker 5 (13:58):
So maybe teams are saying we're done with that.
Speaker 3 (14:02):
Right, if you don't deserve it, you shouldn't go to
the top of the market, right, And that's been sort
of the enigma for the quarterback position, which is this
specific position. If you're even worth a little bit above average,
you're going to the top. So this could be the
start of something good. And the Baker Mayfields of the
world and you know, Smithial of the world to some
gree have also elevated that conversation because you can take
(14:22):
somebody at you know, fifteen to twenty million below that
top top value and make everything work around it. So
I do think teams are smartening up a little bit,
and certainly that front office in San Francisco is one
of those organizations that will put their foot down.
Speaker 1 (14:35):
I'm gonna I'm gonna do an impression here, and I'm
gonna tell you who I'm impersonating after I give you
the impression. Mike, all right, Michael Jeannetti spot track dot Com,
You're ready.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Here we go. Here's the impression. Son of a bitch.
You know what that was.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
I was Sam Darnold's agent watching the Lion game on Sunday, That's.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
What that was.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
What did that game do to his potential earnings? Obviously
he's got playoff games coming up, so chances to redeem himself.
But I mean, in all honesty, you got McCarthy's sitting
there coming off to the knee injury. What do you
think the Vikings do with Donald? How did they handle
that situation?
Speaker 3 (15:09):
It's wild. We just don't have this. We don't have
guys come in and you know, beholdover guys that turn
into forty five million dollars players in the course of
twelve months. I still think at the end of the day,
even if the playoffs go as bad as possible, right,
even if it looks a lot more like it did
last week, I still think he's a franchise dad candidate
(15:30):
because you want to hold his rights, You want to
have the ability to have him on your roster because
so much has gone right with this offense and him
running it. So I just think even at thirty nine
and a half million dollars, which is where we're projecting
that tag, and that's a lot of enchiladas, I get it,
But at that position for one year, I think it's
worth the risk. I think he'll sign that tag when
(15:50):
he knows there's not another option out there for him,
and then you just slow play the McCarthy situation. And
if Donald is unbelievable again in twenty twenty five, it's
a big mess. But now you just go pay the
twitter million dollars and you trade JJ McCarthy.
Speaker 5 (16:04):
How about Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 4 (16:06):
Now that our friend Michael Pennix looks like he's going
to be the starting quarterback of the Falcons for the
next decade, what can Atlanta do with kirk Cousins.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
Well, but for sure going to release him. I don't
think they're being shy about that. They're gonna eat the
guaranteed money this coming year, that they want to pay
the extra ten million that vests in March. They're going
to take on gigantic dead cab hits. We've seen this
go awful. We've seen this go pretty well over the
past couple of seasons. So it's really on them just
to sort of bite the bite down and and and
take their medicine and understand that you can't stop roster
(16:38):
building even though you've got this one guy that didn't
work out. And for Cousins specifically, I don't think he's
done right. I feel like there is a team out
there that's looking for this one year kind of passwork
situation at least to see if they can have him compete.
I'd put Indianapolis very much in that in that right now,
I think the Colts are probably the favorites for kirk Cousins.
You could talk me into San Francisco if the party
stuff goes sour in terms of negotiation. So I think
(17:01):
there's a home for him. And by the way, it's
Russell Wilson two point zero because he's been paid fully
in Atlanta. We're talking about one point three million for
kirk Cousins next year.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 1 (17:12):
I kind of want to let you go and have
you get back to your daily life and you got
stuff to do. But I keep coming up with stuff
I want to ask you, and I'm blaming you because
you just mentioned Russell Wilson right there. What happens to
Russell Wilson?
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Man talk about going south? Here? You know, there's there's
a world now statistically where Justin Fields had a better
twenty twenty four than Russell Wilson did in Pittsburgh. So
you have to think that internally, they're talking about everything
right now, which is who do we bring back? Do
we bring back either of them? Do we just go
back to the draft, start releasing and trading everybody and
(17:45):
start over. I still think in a similar vein, I
still think bringing back Russell Wilson to Pittsburgh on something
extremely incentive based makes the most sense, at least for
one more season, and then it might be a heck
of a lot of Now, what do we do in
Pittsburgh in twenty twenty for the first time maybe in
twenty years? Right? So, yeah, I think he's pretty safe.
There're still but you can you can talk me out
(18:06):
of it quickly with what we see this coming weekend
in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Mike, You're the man. Great stuff. Keep up the good work.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Honestly, man, I feel like when Wikipedia goes on a
fundraising tour, you guys should be doing the same thing
because we use your website a lot. People in this
business use your website a lot to reference stuff, man,
so you should be proud of that. You know how
many people in this industry are referencing your stuff on
your page at spot track, spo, t r ac dot com.
Great stuff, Keep it up and we'll talk soon, man.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
Mike, I appreciate it. Guys. Thank you.
Speaker 1 (18:37):
You bet Michael Jinnetti with us on the radio show.
So you're telling me that all that hub up about
the incentives may be for nothing.
Speaker 5 (18:42):
From the game on Sunday, it was not guaranteed U
till March fifteen.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Oh my god.
Speaker 5 (18:48):
I about the Kirk Cousins thing. You want Kirk Cousins
for one million dollars?
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Yes, yeah, I do too, Yeah, absolutely for a million bucks.
I mean you can cut you know, save it for
thirteen and a half.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
So there's your bill.
Speaker 4 (19:00):
Cost you fifteen million dollars for your quarterback, correct, and
you have Kirk Cousins instead is Gino and you're saving
thirty million dollars.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
Now.
Speaker 5 (19:08):
I hear people right now saying Kirk Cousins sucks.
Speaker 4 (19:10):
Well, he's still coming off an Achilles injury and that
may be one of the reasons why he sucked last year,
and he might actually be better next year than he was
last year.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
So Gino Smith for forty four and a half million,
Kirk Kirk Cousins for fifteen four nine, four y five
one next on ninety three three KHIRFM
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