November 5, 2024 • 33 mins
ICYMI: Hour Two of ‘Later, with Mo’Kelly’ Presents – 2024 Pre-Election Coverage with thoughts on everything from people that claim they’ll “leave the country” depending on which Presidential Candidate wins; to the inherent flaws of polling and MORE - on KFI AM 640…Live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You're listening to Later with Moe Kelly on demand from
KFI AM six forty JF.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm mo' kelly here. We're live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app.
And some of you out there needs to stop lying.
Just stop lying. If you say that you're going to
leave the country if so and so wins and becomes
president tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, whenever it is.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
You're lying, you're straight up lying. That's number one. Number two.
Nobody gives a damn if Stephan says to me.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I'm leaving the country of RFK Junior becomes president. You
know what I would tell Stefan, and I like Stefan,
bye bye. If you're willing to pick up your whole
life because someone became president, you're a fool. You are
a fool. And honestly, the people who say that they're
(00:53):
full of it. And I'll give you two perfect examples
on both sides of the coin. You may not have
heard of Leveon Bell, but he is a former NFL
running back pretty good. He was a pro bowler, and
he hasn't been known for his political commentary. But we're
in an age in which politics, entertainment, and sports almost
(01:18):
run directly parallel, and you see more and more celebrity endorsements,
which include athletes endorsements. And Le'Veon Bell who used to
play with Tom Brady. That's relevant here used to play
with Tom Brady. I think it was in Tampa Bay.
He has threatened to leave the country if Kamala Harris
(01:41):
becomes president.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Number one.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Leveon Bell probably doesn't have the money to leave the country, okay,
even though he was a former NFL player. He has
had serious troubles with child support, okay, trying to pay
his child support. He has seven children with six different women,
a lot of court cases, a lot of drama. But
here's something else you may not know about Leveon Bell
(02:09):
and Stephan I don't think you know this because you
have like twenty five children, so I thought you know
you big wanna pay attention here. If you owe more
than twenty five hundred dollars of child support, you will
not qualify for a passport, you will not get out
(02:29):
of the country.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
So it's safe to say that.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Leveon Bell owes more than twenty five hundred dollars in
child's report.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
Even if he wanted to leave the.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Country, he would not be able unless he's going to
walk across the border in New Mexico or something. He's
not getting out of the country even if you wanted to,
if Kamala Harris were to become president.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
So Le'Veon Bell, you just need to.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Shut the hell up because you're not going anywhere regardless
of who becomes president.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
That's the first one.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Now, the other person I want to tell you about,
you've probably heard of him, Michael Cohen has said on
a number of occasions, most recently about thirty days ago,
he said that he's going to leave the country and
even change his name if necessary, if Trump wins. He
said it in a lot of different media outlets. He
(03:27):
said it to Good Morning Britain. I'll play that for you,
and he more recently said it on MSNBC. This is
Michael Cohen on Good Morning Britain. Citizens, it's prosecutors, it's
congress members.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
He will exact revenge on anyone and everyone that he's
capable of.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
You would consider seeking asylum in a foreign country, absolutely, Okay,
here's the problem and not unlike Le'Veon Bell, there is
a legal component to this. And here's something else. He
said on MSNBC to give you some more contexts. He
said this with Nicole Wallace. He said, quote, I'm out
of here. I mean, I'm already working on a foreign
(04:06):
passport with a completely different name.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
Is that legal? I don't think that it is. I'm
not so sure that it is.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
And also, he is a felon under supervised release, so
I'm guessing he has to check in with a probation
or parole officer consistently.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
And you can't just up and leave the country.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
And if you announce that you're going to fabricate official
documents so you can get out of the country, that
probably will be an issue. But he's going on. He says, quote,
I don't know how it's going to work. As far
as dealing with my wife and my children. I certainly
don't want them moving to where I'm looking to go.
So this fool is going to leave his wife and
(04:48):
children if Donald Trump becomes president. He's going to fabricate
or create some sort of foreign passport in a different name,
in the hopes of leaving the country, probably illegally, because
he's on supervised release, just in case Donald Trump becomes president.
(05:11):
Now I understand why he would be concerned because they're
not tight like that anymore.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
And Donald Trump does have an in for him.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
I'm just trying to figure out how he actually gets
out of the country. How do you get out of
the country if you're already on supervised release and you're
saying publicly that you're going to have to just, I
don't know, go to some CD shop in downtown LA
and have someone create a passport, photo and book for you.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
Can you really do that anymore? It's not as easy
as it was in the old day of the Jackal
Days or what was the name of the movie I
think was The Replacement Killers?
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Yes, Oh, yeah, tell you I'm fan. Yes, that was one.
They had a good passport creation scene. That's all I
can describe it. You can't just glue stuff together anymore.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
It's like now you.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Can't bring out the exact knife and that's good enough.
Now they're actually gonna scan the passport. How do I know,
because I've traveled internationally and they scan it and it
better come up with the right information or people with
guns show up and they make sure that you don't
get past at tsa point unless he has some sort
of you know, money to fly on a private jet.
And even still, I think it's probably gonna be an
issue trying to get in the country.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
Where would you go?
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Oh no, no, no, no, Let me back up. Why would
you leave your home? Not only is it cost prohibitive,
what are you going to do?
Speaker 3 (06:34):
You're gonna come back in five years.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
You're gonna pick up your whole life, leave your family
because some guy or some woman became president.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
They're lying they're not gonna do it. I wouldn't do it.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
I don't care who's president, because damn it, I got
stuff to do here. Now would it be uncomfortable? Might
it be unpleasant? Might it be suboptimal if you're non
prefer choice became president? Sure, sure, But I don't think
Mark Ronald's just gonna pick up and leave. I got
too much stuff, too much stuff, and it costs too much.
(07:11):
You know how much it costs to move, especially on
a whim. Never mind internationally, they're lying. Le'Veon Bell's not
going anywhere. Michael Cohen's not going anywhere either, partially for
legal reasons preventing them and partially because they're just full
of is ish. It sounds good, and I know your
(07:32):
friends are probably saying if Kamala Harris wins, this country's
going to hell.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
I gotta get out of here. Whatever.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
You're not going anywhere, You're staying right here with me.
And if Donald Trump wins, You're not going anywhere. I'm
not going anywhere. Mark Ronald's not going anywhere. Tawalla's gonna
stay here, Stephan's not going anywhere. We're all gonna stay
right here and write it out regardless of who becomes president.
And and and since this is a travel discussion, if
(07:59):
you are actually going to leave, it's not an airport,
there is no need to announce your departure.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
Just go, just go.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
If Mark doesn't show up for work on Wednesday, I'll
know he's just gone. He's not coming back. He didn't
feel the need to tell me. And I'll be okay
with that. I'm gonna be here regardless.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
You're listening to Later with Moe Kelly on demand from
KFI AM six forty.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
KFI mo' kelly, We're live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app
as we continue through music to celebrate the life and
the legacy of Quincy Jones, who passed away at the
age of ninety one yesterday. And I'll have my own
personal anecdotes before the show is over. Also, as we
continue this pre election coverage, I want to go over
(08:50):
these propositions. If you haven't already voted, like Mark Roner,
who turned in his ballot because he is a dutiful,
dutiful citizen, and you're still considering, let me just run
am down for you very quickly. What they are and
what they might mean. How you choose to vote is
up to you. There's Proposition two and the bond measure
(09:11):
would authorize the state to borrow ten billion dollars to
modernize K through twelve schools and community colleges. The funding
could be used to repair outdated school buildings and to
upgrade libraries, heating and cooling systems, and broadband internet. But
(09:32):
you know, you know how we are in California about education.
We don't care about that. Proposition three. This measure would
remove outdated language in the state competition excuse me a
state constitution that still defines marriage as between a man
and woman, and instead replace it with a broader phrase
(09:52):
right to marry. While the constitutional clause is unenforceable and
same sex marriage remains federal protected, Proponents of the measure
say it's necessary and a precaution in case of potential
rulings from the Supreme Court, and.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
That's Proposition three.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Proposition four, the bond measure would authorize the state to
borrow ten billion to help fund the response to climate
related disasters such as drought, flooding, and extreme heat. It
would also help to ensure clean drinking water. If approved,
it will be the largest investment in combating climate change
(10:33):
in California history. There's Proposition five, and the measure would
make it easier for local governments to approve bonds and
tax measures that fund affordable housing and some public infrastructure.
Prop five would lower the required volte threshold to approve
those measures from two thirds supermajority to just fifty five percent.
(10:59):
That's going to be interesting to follow because that has
all sorts of implications going down the road for future measures.
There's Proposition six and prop six would ban involuntary servitude
and end mandatory work requirements for state prisoners. The proposed
constitutional amendment is part of a reparations package for descendants
(11:21):
of African Americans enslaved in the US. There's Proposition thirty two,
and that measure would increase California's hourly minimum wage from
sixteen to eighteen dollars and adjust it annually for inflation.
This is something I talked about years ago. I said,
if you're not going to tie the hourly minimum wage
(11:44):
to the rate of inflation, you're going to have to
keep fighting for a rate increase every single year, as
opposed to.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
Tying it to the rate of inflation.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
The proposal comes after the state's politically powerful union secured
twenty five dollars an hour for healthcare workers and twenty
dollars an hour for fast food workers, and as cities
including West Hollywood, have moved ahead of the state minimum
to nineteen dollars and eight cents an hour. I honestly,
I am curious to see if this will pass. I
(12:17):
have a feeling that it's not going to pass. I'd
be surprised that it is. I don't have any inside
information as to whether it would. I just think that
certain propositions at this time, in the mood of the
state and also nationally, on the heels of the recent
rate hike for fast food workers, I don't know if
(12:40):
this is going.
Speaker 3 (12:41):
To be as well received.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Could be wrong, but that's something I'm watching this Proposition
thirty three, and this measure would allow cities and counties
to enact rent control, and you know I'm watching this
one closely. Proposition thirty three would repeal a nineteen ninety
five law called the Cost to Hawkins Rental Housing Act,
(13:02):
which generally prohibits local governments from limiting rental rates as
issued by landlords. Don't know if it's going to pass,
but it's going to be really interesting to see if California,
as as an aggregate will.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
Pass.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
Aside a third opportunity to try rent control, there's proposition
thirty four, and between thirty three and thirty four, I've
heard and seen the most ads. There's a lot of
money spent on thirty three, thirty four, and thirty six,
but thirty three and thirty four, especially Proposition thirty four,
would require that healthcare providers spend most of the revenue
(13:39):
they get from federal prescription drug discount programs on direct
patient care. It would apply only to a very specific
subset of doctors who have spent more than one hundred
million dollars over a decade on anything other than direct
patient care and anything connected to i'll say big pharma
there's a lot of money behind the scenes trying to
(14:02):
impact the result of that proposition vote.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
There's Prop.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
Thirty five, and that measure would provide permanent funding for
medical California's version of Medicaid, of course, which pays for
health services for low income residents right now attacks on
managed health insurance plans. That funds the program is set
to expire in twenty twenty six. And there's Proposition thirty six.
(14:27):
We've all heard plenty about that, and the measure, backed
by law enforcement, would impose harsher sentences for drug possession
and retail theft. It would turn some crimes involving fentanyl
and repeated shoplifting that are currently misdemeters into felonies. And
also Proposition thirty six aims to roll back parts of Prop.
(14:48):
Forty seven, which, if you're old enough to remember, recategorize
some low level offenses about a decade ago. And those
are the propositions which are on the ballot. If you
haven't all already voted, you will be considering them tomorrow,
I should say, by tomorrow if you're gonna drop off
your ballot like me, or actually go to the polls,
(15:09):
and we will be commenting them and we're giving you
analysis all day tomorrow. John Cobelt will be in from
one to four by himself at then four to six
pm with Tim Conway Junior, and then I will join
Tim Conway Junior from six to eight pm, and then
I will take it over from eight to eleven pm.
(15:29):
We will most likely get the results of the projected
results of all these propositions. I'm suspecting tomorrow night, maybe
some into early Wednesday. But if you keep it right
here on KFI, we'll have all the information as it
breaks between a KFI twenty four, our newsroom and also
our on air personalities, you won't have to go anywhere.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
You're listening to Later with Moe Kelly on demand from
KFI AM six forty.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
KFI mo Kelly. We're live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app.
And even though election Day is not a national holiday,
there are those who've argued, and I would agree with
him that it should be a national holiday so people
don't have the impediment of work or other responsibilities getting
in the way of possibly casting their vote. But presently
(16:18):
it's not a national holiday. But there are a lot
of rewards and freebies out there just in case you
want to take advantage of them. There are ride share
election day deals. In fact, Uber will have a bunch
of promotions. All you have to do is click on
(16:38):
the go vote tile in the Uber app, and Uber
is offering riders fifty percent off trips to their polling
place up to a value of ten dollars, and the
app also will help users find the nearest polling place.
Uber eats is offering twenty five percent off orders up
to fifteen dollars, but the twenty five dollars minimum. At minute,
(17:03):
that doesn't make sense, Mark, Did I read that right?
Uber eats is offering twenty five percent off of orders
up to fifteen dollars, right, that's the first part I
got it. Got that, But it says a twenty five
dollars minimum.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
I can see how people might be confused by that
twenty five percent of orders up to fifteen dollars, But
you have to spend at least twenty five dollars. So
I don't know if you get the twenty five dollars
twenty five percent off. Maybe you get twenty five percent
off the first fifteen dollars, but you have to spend
twenty five.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
Also, doesn't everybody hate story problems? Oh God's grade school?
Come on, I know I was not good with the
math problems. The word math problems?
Speaker 3 (17:51):
Now what do you think? In Uber eats and the
offer is.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
Available from six pm local time tomorrow to seven am
local time on November sixth, so wherever you are six
pm to seven.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Am the next day.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Lift also said that it's offering a fifty percent discount
up to ten dollars on election day rides to the
polls and users can pre load the ride code Vote
twenty four Honor before November fifth. And car rental company
Hurts is offering one free day when customers rent two
(18:27):
or more days from October twenty first to November fifth
as part of its Drive the Vote deal. So if
you haven't already a major reservation, you're ready out of time,
so you get one free day if you rent two
or more days. Krispy Kreme and I love me some
Krispy Kreme. I haven't had it in quite some time.
(18:48):
But if you put Krispy Kremes in front of me,
kind of like pizza, it's going to get eaten. Krispy
Kremes will give away a free original glaze donut, the
best in the world. No proof of purchase or vote necessary.
Wait what, you don't have to prove that you voted,
or you don't have to buy anything either. They'll just
say here, here's a free original glaze donut, just because
(19:09):
it's a lecture day. But the chain will also be
handing out the I Voted stickers for those who did
vote early or sent in their absentee ballot, just to
guess you want the sticker.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Hopefully you actually voted and got the sticker. But but
this next one.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
Twala, I might have to do. Johnny Rockets. You remember
Johnny Rockets was on the Wooze. The crewis I had
about twelve of their cookies and cream milkshakes. I hadn't
had milkshaken I don't know how many years. And they
said they had a cookies and cream one as well.
I'm gonna try it. And I tried it. It was
(19:45):
heavenly with booze in it. You could get it with booze.
I didn't get it with booze. What's the best booze
to mix with?
Speaker 4 (19:51):
That?
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Probably wrong, not Bailey's. That's what a mix the cream
and the milk.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
I don't know. Think of it more like a pina colada.
So I'm thinking rum would work. Intriguing I try that. Yeah, Well,
Johnny Rocketts is offering customers one free shake with an
in store purchase on election day. Guests must prove they
cast a vote, such as an eye voted sticker. That
(20:19):
doesn't prove anything. It's just a sticker you put on you.
Just right, I'm gonna go to Krispy Kreme, get my
free donut and my free sticker, and then go over
to Johnny Rockets and then buy something and get a
free milkshake.
Speaker 4 (20:33):
Yeah, but Johnny Rocketts is the one playing hardball. Yeah
they are, did they do? They have a way of
checking this.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
It just says guests must prove that they cast a vote.
You have to take a polygraph to get to get
your shake. But they're they're accepting an eye voted sticker,
which proves nothing. Look, if you have a mail in ballot,
there's an eye voted sticker in the mail in ballot.
I could throw away the ballot and just stick the
sticker on me and to Johnny Rockets, give me my
(21:03):
cookies and cream milkshake. On our system, this roundtable pizza,
and they're offering six dollars off a large or extra
large pizza for dining and carry out or delivery.
Speaker 3 (21:14):
We may need to get some pizzamorrow night, that's what
I'm hearing. No, we're definitely gonna get some food because
this is gonna be a long lass night. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
It starts for me tomorrow at seven thirty am. Ooh, well,
I'll be on with Spectrum.
Speaker 3 (21:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:27):
I'll be doing Spectrum News tomorrow morning and Wednesday morning
at seven thirty in the morning. That's about my hit time,
so she'd be around seven thirty and then after that
it just doesn't stop. I'll be doing hits and election
stuff for the next forty eight hours.
Speaker 4 (21:42):
Oh why don't you help some Amish people raise a barn?
As long as you're going to be up that early,
what's wrong with you? I asked for this. You know
you talk politics, someone may ask you to come on.
I was true story. I was supposed to do commentary
for NBC KTLA and seeing in number one can't.
Speaker 2 (22:04):
I'm exclusive to Spectrum and number two, I'm doing election
coverage here from six to eleven PM. And there's no
place I'd rather be right here.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
With us. You hear that, fooshy?
Speaker 2 (22:16):
How long are you working tomorrow night, Stefan, I'm my
normal shift, but I'm here till eleven. Okay, Oh, we're
definitely getting food tomorrow. I know Mark is gonna be
normal shift, is not till eleven. Good sir, No, that's
what I'm saying. It's not normally till eleven. But now
tomorrow I'm gonna have to stay till eleven. Good job
calling him out on that. Yeah, so we're all going
to be here late and well fed. We're not gonna
(22:38):
be hungry. We're definitely going to be getting some pizza.
I think pizza is the right choice. Yes, so maybe
we should call Roundtable and say, hey, give us our pizza.
Is there a roundtable near here? I don't know if
they're gonna say, I don't know if there's one near
I think there's.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
One in Burbank. While you're going over these freebees, let
me look it up. So we got to get that
six dollars. Okay.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
I know there is an Ikea in Burbank and they
will offer a free frozen yogurt tomorrow. No meatballs, come on,
that's what I thought. That's the low hanging fruit. You
would think they offer the meatballs because that's what the
people want. Give the people what they want. We want meatballs.
I've never gone to Akia for a frozen yogurt. I
always want the Swedish meatballs. And there your election day
(23:19):
freebies which are available to you from Uber and Lyft
to Roundtable Pizza, to Johnny Rockets and Krispy Kreme and
of course Akia. It's a letter with mo Kelly caf
I AM six forty Live everywhere in the iHeartRadio app.
And when we come back, we have to talk about polling,
what it's meant to do, what it fails at doing,
(23:41):
and why most people get it wrong when it comes
to interpreting polling.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
You're listening to Later with Moe Kelly on demand from
KFI AM six forty.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
KFI mo Kelly Live Everywhere on the iHeartRadio app. Polling, polling, polling.
Everybody has some to say about polling. How it's right,
how it's wrong, how it's accurate, how it's inaccurate, How
is a predictor, how it's going to foretell? What is
going to happen tomorrow? All of it's right, all it's wrong.
(24:15):
What I mean by that is, polling does play a
role in giving us a sense of what may be
on some people's minds. But if you didn't take statistics
back in college, if you may place more emphasis and
importance on them than they really do.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
And what.
Speaker 2 (24:38):
I mean by that is they're only going to give
you a step shot, and it's only for likely voters.
You know what that is? They may or may not vote.
They may or may not vote. It's almost like Twala
asking me, Hey, what are you going to do this weekend?
Speaker 3 (24:55):
Why I may go to the movies. I'll likely go
to the movies.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
Does it mean know, well, I may get busy, I
may end up having a better offer, you know what
I mean?
Speaker 3 (25:04):
So I end up not going to the movies.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
There are a lot of people who will have the
best of intentions, who will not vote tomorrow, who may
tell all their friends that they plan to vote and
they end up not voting, because why it's the right
thing to tell people.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
If someone says to you.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
Hey, are you voting tomorrow, and I said no, I'm
not going to vote, it's all rigged and everything. You're
setting yourself up for a twenty five to thirty minute
conversation that you maybe don't want to have. You don't
want to have to explain or be shamed in the voting.
I have a lot of friends who are like that
a lot, and if they were polled, to give an example,
(25:45):
they will tell the pollster what they think the pollster
wants to hear. And with polls, it depends on how
the questions are crafted, it depends on the sample, It
depends on the sample. And yes, I know there's margin
of air and all that. All I'm saying is I
personally do not put any stock in polls, if only
(26:09):
because you could have four polls of the same general area,
depending on the organization, depending on their sampling method, depending
on the questions in which they're asked, and you have
a wide variety of results. And you can use the
state of Iowa for an example. You may have three
polls which show that among likely voters, Donald Trump will
(26:31):
carry the state. And then you had a poll which
came out over the weekend that showed Kamala Harris winning
the support of forty seven percent of voters compared to
forty four percent of Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
What does that mean? Who the hell knows? And I
use this example, all the time.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
If you ask me at two o'clock today whether I
was hungry, I would tell you yes. If you asked
me at four point thirty, I would tell you no,
because I've had some thing to eat in between time.
It's kind of like that with polling. It depends on
when you catch people, it depends on their mood, it
depends on whether they're trying to be honest. Now, polling
(27:12):
is so complicated and so important to the overall process,
most people are savvy enough to know that they can
influence a pole because you're not talking about tens of
thousands of people who are being sampled.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
Let me talking about a few thousand.
Speaker 2 (27:31):
And if you have enough savvy people, then you can
influence what that pole is going to ultimately reveal or
say or put out there in the media cycle. And
that impacts the perception of the race. But it's not real.
It's not real, even exit polls, and you hear a
lot about that tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
What are exit polls? Was what they seem to be.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
Someone is leaving the voting booth and there's someone with
a microphone from a news agency, local or cable, and
they'll ask, so, who did you vote for. What did
you vote on? They may or may not tell the truth.
That's an exit pole and they will put all that
information together and to say the exit poll, say that
measure G passed in LA, and then you get the
(28:17):
actual returns.
Speaker 3 (28:17):
It's like, whoh, what happened is completely different because people lie.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
People especially are more prone to lie when there's a
microphone in their face, or they believe that they have
an outsized level of importance that they just say what
they think the pollster wants to hear. You have people
now who are very, very savvy, and it's like, oh,
this is Gallup, Okay, let me say this. Oh this
is ras Musin. Oh they're right leading, so I know
(28:45):
what they want.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
It happens all the time.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
I've worked on enough campaigns and been in political circles
enough where polls can and are manipulated, maybe not on
a huge level, but enough to swing a percentage point
here or there and influence the media coverage. And polls
directly impact donors. If they feel that you're gaining in
the polls or doing better, then you're a better sell
(29:10):
to potential donors, especially big ticket donors, and they use
polls to court donors. It all is pretty incestuous and
dirty when you think about it, but that's how it works.
That's why I don't personally, professionally politically put a lot
of stock in polls. It's not really predictive. It's not determinative.
(29:32):
For every poll that you show me that Kamala Harris
is winning, I can show you a poll which shows
that she's losing, and if you're not really paying attention,
you may be looking at a national poll.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
MO, what's a national poll?
Speaker 2 (29:44):
A national poll is when you're basically just asking voters anywhere,
just likely voters, and it's what I call a smooth distribution.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
It's across the United States.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Well, we don't have a popular vote determination of presidents,
so it doesn't matter if Kamala Harris is leading, and
she is, and then national polls you can't see my
air quotes because we vote state by state and it's
an electoral college and those electoral college votes will be
given out state by state, not a popular vote. So
when you see a national poll, I just completely turned
(30:14):
that off because it isn't mean thing.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
We don't have a national vote. We have a state
by state vote.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
So you're almost tricking yourself into thinking, well, this poll,
this national poll says this, so let's trending towards that result.
Speaker 3 (30:29):
No, it doesn't work that way. You know.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
That goes back to the whole statistics saying. And I
was not very good at statistics. Hey, Mark, did you
have to take stats in college?
Speaker 3 (30:37):
No?
Speaker 4 (30:37):
I was registered as a psych major, and when I
found out all the math that was involved, I changed immediately.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
Let me tell you how hard statistics is. When I
was in school, many many moons ago, our professor's plural said,
it's an open book test. You can use whatever you
can find in the book to answer the questions. And mother,
fathers will failing left and right.
Speaker 4 (31:01):
Yeah, when they tell you can go ahead and look
at whatever you want to, you know it's going to
be hard.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
It was almost impossible to cheat, with the exception of
working with someone in the class next to you. You
could use a calculator back when, you know, because back
then we had scientific calculators.
Speaker 3 (31:17):
Did not matter, no book whatever. That's how hard.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
If I'd never see another plus on or annava or
standard dva M, what did you say, annova A n
O v A, that's how little I know yeah, I'm
the mean median whatever. All that stuff I don't. I
still get nightmares from it. Oh yeah, that stuff's miserable.
That's the kind the side of my brain that doesn't work. Yeah,
(31:44):
and I'm not real big on math. That was like
the last math class I actually took in life was statistics.
A whole year Statistics and business calculus worst years of
my life.
Speaker 3 (31:56):
Oh yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:56):
In high school I had to take like moron algebra
for idiots because I just couldn't. I couldn't connect with
any of that stuff.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
Now, I don't know if I'm an absolute genius or
I'm an idiot. Because for my high school I know,
we gotta go to break Trigonometry was not a requirement
for graduation, so I never took trig in high school.
I jumped straight from algebra to calculus in college with
no Trigg in between. Now, either I'm one of the
(32:26):
smartest mother fathers are alive, or I'm one of the
dumbest ones of live.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
I'm going with that masochist That is the answer massacre.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
Because it's all like, just imagine you're skipping over a
really important math portion to doing calculus, and I did it,
and I suffered for it.
Speaker 3 (32:44):
You're making me suffer right now.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
It's later with mokellyk if I AM six forty. We're
live everywhere in the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 3 (32:51):
Full fandwidth stimulation. Kf I KOST HD two
Speaker 4 (32:57):
Los Angeles, Orange County, live everywhere on the Eggart radio
app
You're listening to Later with Moe Kelly on demand from
KFI AM six forty JF.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm mo' kelly here. We're live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app.
And some of you out there needs to stop lying.
Just stop lying. If you say that you're going to
leave the country if so and so wins and becomes
president tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, whenever it is.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
You're lying, you're straight up lying. That's number one. Number two.
Nobody gives a damn if Stephan says to me.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I'm leaving the country of RFK Junior becomes president. You
know what I would tell Stefan, and I like Stefan,
bye bye. If you're willing to pick up your whole
life because someone became president, you're a fool. You are
a fool. And honestly, the people who say that they're
(00:53):
full of it. And I'll give you two perfect examples
on both sides of the coin. You may not have
heard of Leveon Bell, but he is a former NFL
running back pretty good. He was a pro bowler, and
he hasn't been known for his political commentary. But we're
in an age in which politics, entertainment, and sports almost
(01:18):
run directly parallel, and you see more and more celebrity endorsements,
which include athletes endorsements. And Le'Veon Bell who used to
play with Tom Brady. That's relevant here used to play
with Tom Brady. I think it was in Tampa Bay.
He has threatened to leave the country if Kamala Harris
(01:41):
becomes president.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Number one.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Leveon Bell probably doesn't have the money to leave the country, okay,
even though he was a former NFL player. He has
had serious troubles with child support, okay, trying to pay
his child support. He has seven children with six different women,
a lot of court cases, a lot of drama. But
here's something else you may not know about Leveon Bell
(02:09):
and Stephan I don't think you know this because you
have like twenty five children, so I thought you know
you big wanna pay attention here. If you owe more
than twenty five hundred dollars of child support, you will
not qualify for a passport, you will not get out
(02:29):
of the country.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
So it's safe to say that.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Leveon Bell owes more than twenty five hundred dollars in
child's report.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
Even if he wanted to leave the.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Country, he would not be able unless he's going to
walk across the border in New Mexico or something. He's
not getting out of the country even if you wanted to,
if Kamala Harris were to become president.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
So Le'Veon Bell, you just need to.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Shut the hell up because you're not going anywhere regardless
of who becomes president.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
That's the first one.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Now, the other person I want to tell you about,
you've probably heard of him, Michael Cohen has said on
a number of occasions, most recently about thirty days ago,
he said that he's going to leave the country and
even change his name if necessary, if Trump wins. He
said it in a lot of different media outlets. He
(03:27):
said it to Good Morning Britain. I'll play that for you,
and he more recently said it on MSNBC. This is
Michael Cohen on Good Morning Britain. Citizens, it's prosecutors, it's
congress members.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
He will exact revenge on anyone and everyone that he's
capable of.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
You would consider seeking asylum in a foreign country, absolutely, Okay,
here's the problem and not unlike Le'Veon Bell, there is
a legal component to this. And here's something else. He
said on MSNBC to give you some more contexts. He
said this with Nicole Wallace. He said, quote, I'm out
of here. I mean, I'm already working on a foreign
(04:06):
passport with a completely different name.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
Is that legal? I don't think that it is. I'm
not so sure that it is.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
And also, he is a felon under supervised release, so
I'm guessing he has to check in with a probation
or parole officer consistently.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
And you can't just up and leave the country.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
And if you announce that you're going to fabricate official
documents so you can get out of the country, that
probably will be an issue. But he's going on. He says, quote,
I don't know how it's going to work. As far
as dealing with my wife and my children. I certainly
don't want them moving to where I'm looking to go.
So this fool is going to leave his wife and
(04:48):
children if Donald Trump becomes president. He's going to fabricate
or create some sort of foreign passport in a different name,
in the hopes of leaving the country, probably illegally, because
he's on supervised release, just in case Donald Trump becomes president.
(05:11):
Now I understand why he would be concerned because they're
not tight like that anymore.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
And Donald Trump does have an in for him.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
I'm just trying to figure out how he actually gets
out of the country. How do you get out of
the country if you're already on supervised release and you're
saying publicly that you're going to have to just, I
don't know, go to some CD shop in downtown LA
and have someone create a passport, photo and book for you.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
Can you really do that anymore? It's not as easy
as it was in the old day of the Jackal
Days or what was the name of the movie I
think was The Replacement Killers?
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Yes, Oh, yeah, tell you I'm fan. Yes, that was one.
They had a good passport creation scene. That's all I
can describe it. You can't just glue stuff together anymore.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
It's like now you.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Can't bring out the exact knife and that's good enough.
Now they're actually gonna scan the passport. How do I know,
because I've traveled internationally and they scan it and it
better come up with the right information or people with
guns show up and they make sure that you don't
get past at tsa point unless he has some sort
of you know, money to fly on a private jet.
And even still, I think it's probably gonna be an
issue trying to get in the country.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
Where would you go?
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Oh no, no, no, no, Let me back up. Why would
you leave your home? Not only is it cost prohibitive,
what are you going to do?
Speaker 3 (06:34):
You're gonna come back in five years.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
You're gonna pick up your whole life, leave your family
because some guy or some woman became president.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
They're lying they're not gonna do it. I wouldn't do it.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
I don't care who's president, because damn it, I got
stuff to do here. Now would it be uncomfortable? Might
it be unpleasant? Might it be suboptimal if you're non
prefer choice became president? Sure, sure, But I don't think
Mark Ronald's just gonna pick up and leave. I got
too much stuff, too much stuff, and it costs too much.
(07:11):
You know how much it costs to move, especially on
a whim. Never mind internationally, they're lying. Le'Veon Bell's not
going anywhere. Michael Cohen's not going anywhere either, partially for
legal reasons preventing them and partially because they're just full
of is ish. It sounds good, and I know your
(07:32):
friends are probably saying if Kamala Harris wins, this country's
going to hell.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
I gotta get out of here. Whatever.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
You're not going anywhere, You're staying right here with me.
And if Donald Trump wins, You're not going anywhere. I'm
not going anywhere. Mark Ronald's not going anywhere. Tawalla's gonna
stay here, Stephan's not going anywhere. We're all gonna stay
right here and write it out regardless of who becomes president.
And and and since this is a travel discussion, if
(07:59):
you are actually going to leave, it's not an airport,
there is no need to announce your departure.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
Just go, just go.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
If Mark doesn't show up for work on Wednesday, I'll
know he's just gone. He's not coming back. He didn't
feel the need to tell me. And I'll be okay
with that. I'm gonna be here regardless.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
You're listening to Later with Moe Kelly on demand from
KFI AM six forty.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
KFI mo' kelly, We're live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app
as we continue through music to celebrate the life and
the legacy of Quincy Jones, who passed away at the
age of ninety one yesterday. And I'll have my own
personal anecdotes before the show is over. Also, as we
continue this pre election coverage, I want to go over
(08:50):
these propositions. If you haven't already voted, like Mark Roner,
who turned in his ballot because he is a dutiful,
dutiful citizen, and you're still considering, let me just run
am down for you very quickly. What they are and
what they might mean. How you choose to vote is
up to you. There's Proposition two and the bond measure
(09:11):
would authorize the state to borrow ten billion dollars to
modernize K through twelve schools and community colleges. The funding
could be used to repair outdated school buildings and to
upgrade libraries, heating and cooling systems, and broadband internet. But
(09:32):
you know, you know how we are in California about education.
We don't care about that. Proposition three. This measure would
remove outdated language in the state competition excuse me a
state constitution that still defines marriage as between a man
and woman, and instead replace it with a broader phrase
(09:52):
right to marry. While the constitutional clause is unenforceable and
same sex marriage remains federal protected, Proponents of the measure
say it's necessary and a precaution in case of potential
rulings from the Supreme Court, and.
Speaker 3 (10:10):
That's Proposition three.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Proposition four, the bond measure would authorize the state to
borrow ten billion to help fund the response to climate
related disasters such as drought, flooding, and extreme heat. It
would also help to ensure clean drinking water. If approved,
it will be the largest investment in combating climate change
(10:33):
in California history. There's Proposition five, and the measure would
make it easier for local governments to approve bonds and
tax measures that fund affordable housing and some public infrastructure.
Prop five would lower the required volte threshold to approve
those measures from two thirds supermajority to just fifty five percent.
(10:59):
That's going to be interesting to follow because that has
all sorts of implications going down the road for future measures.
There's Proposition six and prop six would ban involuntary servitude
and end mandatory work requirements for state prisoners. The proposed
constitutional amendment is part of a reparations package for descendants
(11:21):
of African Americans enslaved in the US. There's Proposition thirty two,
and that measure would increase California's hourly minimum wage from
sixteen to eighteen dollars and adjust it annually for inflation.
This is something I talked about years ago. I said,
if you're not going to tie the hourly minimum wage
(11:44):
to the rate of inflation, you're going to have to
keep fighting for a rate increase every single year, as
opposed to.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
Tying it to the rate of inflation.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
The proposal comes after the state's politically powerful union secured
twenty five dollars an hour for healthcare workers and twenty
dollars an hour for fast food workers, and as cities
including West Hollywood, have moved ahead of the state minimum
to nineteen dollars and eight cents an hour. I honestly,
I am curious to see if this will pass. I
(12:17):
have a feeling that it's not going to pass. I'd
be surprised that it is. I don't have any inside
information as to whether it would. I just think that
certain propositions at this time, in the mood of the
state and also nationally, on the heels of the recent
rate hike for fast food workers, I don't know if
(12:40):
this is going.
Speaker 3 (12:41):
To be as well received.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Could be wrong, but that's something I'm watching this Proposition
thirty three, and this measure would allow cities and counties
to enact rent control, and you know I'm watching this
one closely. Proposition thirty three would repeal a nineteen ninety
five law called the Cost to Hawkins Rental Housing Act,
(13:02):
which generally prohibits local governments from limiting rental rates as
issued by landlords. Don't know if it's going to pass,
but it's going to be really interesting to see if California,
as as an aggregate will.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
Pass.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
Aside a third opportunity to try rent control, there's proposition
thirty four, and between thirty three and thirty four, I've
heard and seen the most ads. There's a lot of
money spent on thirty three, thirty four, and thirty six,
but thirty three and thirty four, especially Proposition thirty four,
would require that healthcare providers spend most of the revenue
(13:39):
they get from federal prescription drug discount programs on direct
patient care. It would apply only to a very specific
subset of doctors who have spent more than one hundred
million dollars over a decade on anything other than direct
patient care and anything connected to i'll say big pharma
there's a lot of money behind the scenes trying to
(14:02):
impact the result of that proposition vote.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
There's Prop.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
Thirty five, and that measure would provide permanent funding for
medical California's version of Medicaid, of course, which pays for
health services for low income residents right now attacks on
managed health insurance plans. That funds the program is set
to expire in twenty twenty six. And there's Proposition thirty six.
(14:27):
We've all heard plenty about that, and the measure, backed
by law enforcement, would impose harsher sentences for drug possession
and retail theft. It would turn some crimes involving fentanyl
and repeated shoplifting that are currently misdemeters into felonies. And
also Proposition thirty six aims to roll back parts of Prop.
(14:48):
Forty seven, which, if you're old enough to remember, recategorize
some low level offenses about a decade ago. And those
are the propositions which are on the ballot. If you
haven't all already voted, you will be considering them tomorrow,
I should say, by tomorrow if you're gonna drop off
your ballot like me, or actually go to the polls,
(15:09):
and we will be commenting them and we're giving you
analysis all day tomorrow. John Cobelt will be in from
one to four by himself at then four to six
pm with Tim Conway Junior, and then I will join
Tim Conway Junior from six to eight pm, and then
I will take it over from eight to eleven pm.
(15:29):
We will most likely get the results of the projected
results of all these propositions. I'm suspecting tomorrow night, maybe
some into early Wednesday. But if you keep it right
here on KFI, we'll have all the information as it
breaks between a KFI twenty four, our newsroom and also
our on air personalities, you won't have to go anywhere.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
You're listening to Later with Moe Kelly on demand from
KFI AM six forty.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
KFI mo Kelly. We're live everywhere on the iHeartRadio app.
And even though election Day is not a national holiday,
there are those who've argued, and I would agree with
him that it should be a national holiday so people
don't have the impediment of work or other responsibilities getting
in the way of possibly casting their vote. But presently
(16:18):
it's not a national holiday. But there are a lot
of rewards and freebies out there just in case you
want to take advantage of them. There are ride share
election day deals. In fact, Uber will have a bunch
of promotions. All you have to do is click on
(16:38):
the go vote tile in the Uber app, and Uber
is offering riders fifty percent off trips to their polling
place up to a value of ten dollars, and the
app also will help users find the nearest polling place.
Uber eats is offering twenty five percent off orders up
to fifteen dollars, but the twenty five dollars minimum. At minute,
(17:03):
that doesn't make sense, Mark, Did I read that right?
Uber eats is offering twenty five percent off of orders
up to fifteen dollars, right, that's the first part I
got it. Got that, But it says a twenty five
dollars minimum.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
I can see how people might be confused by that
twenty five percent of orders up to fifteen dollars, But
you have to spend at least twenty five dollars. So
I don't know if you get the twenty five dollars
twenty five percent off. Maybe you get twenty five percent
off the first fifteen dollars, but you have to spend
twenty five.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
Also, doesn't everybody hate story problems? Oh God's grade school?
Come on, I know I was not good with the
math problems. The word math problems?
Speaker 3 (17:51):
Now what do you think? In Uber eats and the
offer is.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
Available from six pm local time tomorrow to seven am
local time on November sixth, so wherever you are six
pm to seven.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Am the next day.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Lift also said that it's offering a fifty percent discount
up to ten dollars on election day rides to the
polls and users can pre load the ride code Vote
twenty four Honor before November fifth. And car rental company
Hurts is offering one free day when customers rent two
(18:27):
or more days from October twenty first to November fifth
as part of its Drive the Vote deal. So if
you haven't already a major reservation, you're ready out of time,
so you get one free day if you rent two
or more days. Krispy Kreme and I love me some
Krispy Kreme. I haven't had it in quite some time.
(18:48):
But if you put Krispy Kremes in front of me,
kind of like pizza, it's going to get eaten. Krispy
Kremes will give away a free original glaze donut, the
best in the world. No proof of purchase or vote necessary.
Wait what, you don't have to prove that you voted,
or you don't have to buy anything either. They'll just
say here, here's a free original glaze donut, just because
(19:09):
it's a lecture day. But the chain will also be
handing out the I Voted stickers for those who did
vote early or sent in their absentee ballot, just to
guess you want the sticker.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Hopefully you actually voted and got the sticker. But but
this next one.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
Twala, I might have to do. Johnny Rockets. You remember
Johnny Rockets was on the Wooze. The crewis I had
about twelve of their cookies and cream milkshakes. I hadn't
had milkshaken I don't know how many years. And they
said they had a cookies and cream one as well.
I'm gonna try it. And I tried it. It was
(19:45):
heavenly with booze in it. You could get it with booze.
I didn't get it with booze. What's the best booze
to mix with?
Speaker 4 (19:51):
That?
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Probably wrong, not Bailey's. That's what a mix the cream
and the milk.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
I don't know. Think of it more like a pina colada.
So I'm thinking rum would work. Intriguing I try that. Yeah, Well,
Johnny Rocketts is offering customers one free shake with an
in store purchase on election day. Guests must prove they
cast a vote, such as an eye voted sticker. That
(20:19):
doesn't prove anything. It's just a sticker you put on you.
Just right, I'm gonna go to Krispy Kreme, get my
free donut and my free sticker, and then go over
to Johnny Rockets and then buy something and get a
free milkshake.
Speaker 4 (20:33):
Yeah, but Johnny Rocketts is the one playing hardball. Yeah
they are, did they do? They have a way of
checking this.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
It just says guests must prove that they cast a vote.
You have to take a polygraph to get to get
your shake. But they're they're accepting an eye voted sticker,
which proves nothing. Look, if you have a mail in ballot,
there's an eye voted sticker in the mail in ballot.
I could throw away the ballot and just stick the
sticker on me and to Johnny Rockets, give me my
(21:03):
cookies and cream milkshake. On our system, this roundtable pizza,
and they're offering six dollars off a large or extra
large pizza for dining and carry out or delivery.
Speaker 3 (21:14):
We may need to get some pizzamorrow night, that's what
I'm hearing. No, we're definitely gonna get some food because
this is gonna be a long lass night. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
It starts for me tomorrow at seven thirty am. Ooh, well,
I'll be on with Spectrum.
Speaker 3 (21:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:27):
I'll be doing Spectrum News tomorrow morning and Wednesday morning
at seven thirty in the morning. That's about my hit time,
so she'd be around seven thirty and then after that
it just doesn't stop. I'll be doing hits and election
stuff for the next forty eight hours.
Speaker 4 (21:42):
Oh why don't you help some Amish people raise a barn?
As long as you're going to be up that early,
what's wrong with you? I asked for this. You know
you talk politics, someone may ask you to come on.
I was true story. I was supposed to do commentary
for NBC KTLA and seeing in number one can't.
Speaker 2 (22:04):
I'm exclusive to Spectrum and number two, I'm doing election
coverage here from six to eleven PM. And there's no
place I'd rather be right here.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
With us. You hear that, fooshy?
Speaker 2 (22:16):
How long are you working tomorrow night, Stefan, I'm my
normal shift, but I'm here till eleven. Okay, Oh, we're
definitely getting food tomorrow. I know Mark is gonna be
normal shift, is not till eleven. Good sir, No, that's
what I'm saying. It's not normally till eleven. But now
tomorrow I'm gonna have to stay till eleven. Good job
calling him out on that. Yeah, so we're all going
to be here late and well fed. We're not gonna
(22:38):
be hungry. We're definitely going to be getting some pizza.
I think pizza is the right choice. Yes, so maybe
we should call Roundtable and say, hey, give us our pizza.
Is there a roundtable near here? I don't know if
they're gonna say, I don't know if there's one near
I think there's.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
One in Burbank. While you're going over these freebees, let
me look it up. So we got to get that
six dollars. Okay.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
I know there is an Ikea in Burbank and they
will offer a free frozen yogurt tomorrow. No meatballs, come on,
that's what I thought. That's the low hanging fruit. You
would think they offer the meatballs because that's what the
people want. Give the people what they want. We want meatballs.
I've never gone to Akia for a frozen yogurt. I
always want the Swedish meatballs. And there your election day
(23:19):
freebies which are available to you from Uber and Lyft
to Roundtable Pizza, to Johnny Rockets and Krispy Kreme and
of course Akia. It's a letter with mo Kelly caf
I AM six forty Live everywhere in the iHeartRadio app.
And when we come back, we have to talk about polling,
what it's meant to do, what it fails at doing,
(23:41):
and why most people get it wrong when it comes
to interpreting polling.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
You're listening to Later with Moe Kelly on demand from
KFI AM six forty.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
KFI mo Kelly Live Everywhere on the iHeartRadio app. Polling, polling, polling.
Everybody has some to say about polling. How it's right,
how it's wrong, how it's accurate, how it's inaccurate, How
is a predictor, how it's going to foretell? What is
going to happen tomorrow? All of it's right, all it's wrong.
(24:15):
What I mean by that is, polling does play a
role in giving us a sense of what may be
on some people's minds. But if you didn't take statistics
back in college, if you may place more emphasis and
importance on them than they really do.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
And what.
Speaker 2 (24:38):
I mean by that is they're only going to give
you a step shot, and it's only for likely voters.
You know what that is? They may or may not vote.
They may or may not vote. It's almost like Twala
asking me, Hey, what are you going to do this weekend?
Speaker 3 (24:55):
Why I may go to the movies. I'll likely go
to the movies.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
Does it mean know, well, I may get busy, I
may end up having a better offer, you know what
I mean?
Speaker 3 (25:04):
So I end up not going to the movies.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
There are a lot of people who will have the
best of intentions, who will not vote tomorrow, who may
tell all their friends that they plan to vote and
they end up not voting, because why it's the right
thing to tell people.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
If someone says to you.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
Hey, are you voting tomorrow, and I said no, I'm
not going to vote, it's all rigged and everything. You're
setting yourself up for a twenty five to thirty minute
conversation that you maybe don't want to have. You don't
want to have to explain or be shamed in the voting.
I have a lot of friends who are like that
a lot, and if they were polled, to give an example,
(25:45):
they will tell the pollster what they think the pollster
wants to hear. And with polls, it depends on how
the questions are crafted, it depends on the sample, It
depends on the sample. And yes, I know there's margin
of air and all that. All I'm saying is I
personally do not put any stock in polls, if only
(26:09):
because you could have four polls of the same general area,
depending on the organization, depending on their sampling method, depending
on the questions in which they're asked, and you have
a wide variety of results. And you can use the
state of Iowa for an example. You may have three
polls which show that among likely voters, Donald Trump will
(26:31):
carry the state. And then you had a poll which
came out over the weekend that showed Kamala Harris winning
the support of forty seven percent of voters compared to
forty four percent of Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (26:43):
What does that mean? Who the hell knows? And I
use this example, all the time.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
If you ask me at two o'clock today whether I
was hungry, I would tell you yes. If you asked
me at four point thirty, I would tell you no,
because I've had some thing to eat in between time.
It's kind of like that with polling. It depends on
when you catch people, it depends on their mood, it
depends on whether they're trying to be honest. Now, polling
(27:12):
is so complicated and so important to the overall process,
most people are savvy enough to know that they can
influence a pole because you're not talking about tens of
thousands of people who are being sampled.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
Let me talking about a few thousand.
Speaker 2 (27:31):
And if you have enough savvy people, then you can
influence what that pole is going to ultimately reveal or
say or put out there in the media cycle. And
that impacts the perception of the race. But it's not real.
It's not real, even exit polls, and you hear a
lot about that tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
What are exit polls? Was what they seem to be.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
Someone is leaving the voting booth and there's someone with
a microphone from a news agency, local or cable, and
they'll ask, so, who did you vote for. What did
you vote on? They may or may not tell the truth.
That's an exit pole and they will put all that
information together and to say the exit poll, say that
measure G passed in LA, and then you get the
(28:17):
actual returns.
Speaker 3 (28:17):
It's like, whoh, what happened is completely different because people lie.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
People especially are more prone to lie when there's a
microphone in their face, or they believe that they have
an outsized level of importance that they just say what
they think the pollster wants to hear. You have people
now who are very, very savvy, and it's like, oh,
this is Gallup, Okay, let me say this. Oh this
is ras Musin. Oh they're right leading, so I know
(28:45):
what they want.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
It happens all the time.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
I've worked on enough campaigns and been in political circles
enough where polls can and are manipulated, maybe not on
a huge level, but enough to swing a percentage point
here or there and influence the media coverage. And polls
directly impact donors. If they feel that you're gaining in
the polls or doing better, then you're a better sell
(29:10):
to potential donors, especially big ticket donors, and they use
polls to court donors. It all is pretty incestuous and
dirty when you think about it, but that's how it works.
That's why I don't personally, professionally politically put a lot
of stock in polls. It's not really predictive. It's not determinative.
(29:32):
For every poll that you show me that Kamala Harris
is winning, I can show you a poll which shows
that she's losing, and if you're not really paying attention,
you may be looking at a national poll.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
MO, what's a national poll?
Speaker 2 (29:44):
A national poll is when you're basically just asking voters anywhere,
just likely voters, and it's what I call a smooth distribution.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
It's across the United States.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Well, we don't have a popular vote determination of presidents,
so it doesn't matter if Kamala Harris is leading, and
she is, and then national polls you can't see my
air quotes because we vote state by state and it's
an electoral college and those electoral college votes will be
given out state by state, not a popular vote. So
when you see a national poll, I just completely turned
(30:14):
that off because it isn't mean thing.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
We don't have a national vote. We have a state
by state vote.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
So you're almost tricking yourself into thinking, well, this poll,
this national poll says this, so let's trending towards that result.
Speaker 3 (30:29):
No, it doesn't work that way. You know.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
That goes back to the whole statistics saying. And I
was not very good at statistics. Hey, Mark, did you
have to take stats in college?
Speaker 3 (30:37):
No?
Speaker 4 (30:37):
I was registered as a psych major, and when I
found out all the math that was involved, I changed immediately.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
Let me tell you how hard statistics is. When I
was in school, many many moons ago, our professor's plural said,
it's an open book test. You can use whatever you
can find in the book to answer the questions. And mother,
fathers will failing left and right.
Speaker 4 (31:01):
Yeah, when they tell you can go ahead and look
at whatever you want to, you know it's going to
be hard.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
It was almost impossible to cheat, with the exception of
working with someone in the class next to you. You
could use a calculator back when, you know, because back
then we had scientific calculators.
Speaker 3 (31:17):
Did not matter, no book whatever. That's how hard.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
If I'd never see another plus on or annava or
standard dva M, what did you say, annova A n
O v A, that's how little I know yeah, I'm
the mean median whatever. All that stuff I don't. I
still get nightmares from it. Oh yeah, that stuff's miserable.
That's the kind the side of my brain that doesn't work. Yeah,
(31:44):
and I'm not real big on math. That was like
the last math class I actually took in life was statistics.
A whole year Statistics and business calculus worst years of
my life.
Speaker 3 (31:56):
Oh yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:56):
In high school I had to take like moron algebra
for idiots because I just couldn't. I couldn't connect with
any of that stuff.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
Now, I don't know if I'm an absolute genius or
I'm an idiot. Because for my high school I know,
we gotta go to break Trigonometry was not a requirement
for graduation, so I never took trig in high school.
I jumped straight from algebra to calculus in college with
no Trigg in between. Now, either I'm one of the
(32:26):
smartest mother fathers are alive, or I'm one of the
dumbest ones of live.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
I'm going with that masochist That is the answer massacre.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
Because it's all like, just imagine you're skipping over a
really important math portion to doing calculus, and I did it,
and I suffered for it.
Speaker 3 (32:44):
You're making me suffer right now.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
It's later with mokellyk if I AM six forty. We're
live everywhere in the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 3 (32:51):
Full fandwidth stimulation. Kf I KOST HD two
Speaker 4 (32:57):
Los Angeles, Orange County, live everywhere on the Eggart radio
app
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