September 5, 2024 • 20 mins
Doug welcomes Kelley Ford of KFordRankings.com to give his college football rankings coming off of week one of the season. Doug chooses among deserving candidates Jason Stewart deems as most annoying today. Plus, Charles Barkley makes today's edition of "Because We Can".
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, listen, this is the Doug Gottlieb Show, Years
in the Bonus with Doug gottlie.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What Up, Doug Gottlieb Show and the Bonus Fox Sports
Radio iHeartRadio app Welcome in Okay. So if it's your
first time listening to the in the Bonus podcast, you'll
know that basically, and as it plays out on the
iHeart podcast network is this becomes what the first hour,
(00:34):
even though we do it the last hour, all right,
So when you download, you hear this first, then you
hear the rest of the radio show. So basically this
is like an our radio show, only we can say
and do whatever we want and we don't have to
take traditional breaks and.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
It's a little bit more free flowing.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
We do have something called what the Fox Says, which
is basically we play for you clips of the day
on either Fox Sports Trader or Fox Sports One, then
I comment on it. We have some other cool stuff
we do, like Your Annoying where Jason Stewart, who is
annoyed by many, finds only a couple to be annoyed by.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
On a daily.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Basis, we try and determine who's the most annoying person
in sports on Earth. And then we have something called
because we Can, where we play for you, usually an
audio clip of somebody cursing many times with other innuendo,
and we can do it unedited because it's a podcast,
so we call it because we can. So that's a
(01:35):
and we have really good stuff today. Ah. Yes, kids,
it's that favorite time of the week when Kelly Ford
joins us because he's got his k Ford Ratings Index,
which is predictive before the season began. Now, of course
we're a couple weeks in the season, and now we've
got to figure out what's what Kelly. Most surprising results
(01:58):
so far that you've been able to track so far
in college football this year.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
Yeah, Doug, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
As always a couple surprising results this year already or
again only beating Idaho by ten at home. The Ducks
were downgraded more than seven points in my Power ratings
from week one to week two.
Speaker 4 (02:18):
Still a good Oregon team, still in the top ten
of the power ratings. I don't expect them.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
To play at that level moving forward every single week,
but certainly that was a jolt to the power ratings.
And I'll also go Florida state the fact that they
are zero and two after two games. In the preseason,
my numbers assigned just a two percent chance that the
Knowles would be oh and two at this stage. If
I want to go with a positive ole, Miss Alabama
(02:41):
Miami among the Power four teams that impressed the most
in Week one, and you can argue the level of competition.
Of course, Miami got the big win against of Florida,
but all those teams upgraded at least four points in
the model coming into Week two, so we learned a
lot even though there weren't a ton of unexpected win
loss results.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
Okay, Florida State, how surprising are those two losses?
Speaker 4 (03:04):
Huge, hugely surprising.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Like I said in the preseason, just a two percent
chance that Florida State was going to be zero to
two at this stage.
Speaker 4 (03:12):
Doug.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
The best way I can sum this up, it's kind
of been a game of hot potato in the ACC
of who's going to be the favorite, Who's going to
be the team that represents that conference as the AQ
in the CFP at the end of the year. But
Florida State started the year as my favorite in the ACC.
They now, according to my numbers, have a forty nine
percent chance to go bowling. So they went from projected
(03:32):
to have a buy in the playoffs to a fifty
to fifty proposition just to make a bowl game. I mean,
it's been remarkable. They've been downgraded eight points since the
start of the year. That's the biggest downgrade of any
team since the preseason. It's been really, really bad. They
are off this week, and they need this off week
because they have to do some soul searching and get
things right before they welcome Memphis and Cal before a
(03:53):
tough trip to SMU and we five. It's not easy
for Florida State right now, and they've got to figure
it out.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Okay, let's let's kind of go around the country a
little bit as some other teams and some other Miami
gets a big win over Florida. Who's more affected by
that by that game, Florida or Miami.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
So Miami is affected in the sense that they are
now my favorite in the ACC. They are projected to
be the number three seed in the playoffs now based
on how the playoff seeding works, they're my favorite in
the ACC.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
There's only one game left this year in which my
numbers now make Miami an underdog. That's Week eight at Louisville.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
I've got a forty five percent win expectancy there for
the Hurricane, so they had a nice little upgrade. They're
upset number eleven in the Power ratings. Florida meanwhile, was
downgraded and downgraded significantly their season projections now, Doug they
are projected to be third to bottom in the SEC,
only above Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. And those projections and
if you look at the SEC wins win totals just
(04:53):
in general, out of all twelve games league and non
league for this conference, Florida now has a lower projected
rate ular season win total at three point nine than
any team in the SEC. Even Vanderbilt is projected to
win four point four games after their great win upset
win over Virginia Tech. So it is not looking good
for Florida. Billy Napier, maybe.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
They've got something. And DJ Lagway at quarterback.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
They certainly look better once he came into the game.
But Billy Napier has got to get some results here
in short order to keep that job, and I think
they had the talent to do it. But it was
not a good performance in Week one.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Okay, I'm fascinated, fascinated by the SEC taking some l's early.
What does this in your preseason prediction? You had five
SEC teams in the College Football Playoff? Does any of
that change with Florida losing, LSU losing who else somebody
(05:48):
else lost.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
That I'm not thinking. We had text A and M.
Text A and M lost to Notre Dame. YEP.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
So right now my projected costball playoff picture which I
update every single Thursday, so it's on the website.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
Now at kfourrats dot com.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
I've got Georgia still as my number one overall seed
projected wins the SEC. Alabama has actually jumped up to
my number five seeds, so the best of the at largest,
we've got old myths who looked really really good against
an FCS team. They're at number seven. Texas is at
number nine, and right now that is the list of
SEC team, So I am down to what is that
four SEC team?
Speaker 4 (06:22):
Excuse me?
Speaker 1 (06:23):
No, Oklahoma. Oklahoma's number eleven. They are in the SEC.
Now I'm still trying to get used to that they
are in the SEC. They are my fifth team. So
I still have five teams from the SEC in the
projected bracket and that's not even accounting for Tennessee, Missouri, Auburn.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
All of those.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Teams in the first four out for me right now.
So yes, there were some results that the SEC is
not going to love from a win loss perspective for
the three big ones we mentioned an MLSU Florida. But
with regard to the power ratings, the projection, they are
still going to be very well represented in this playoff,
and they've got a lot of teams lurking ready to
jump up if any of these other teams and other
conferences fail to make an impact here moving forward, be
(06:58):
sure to catch live editions of The Doug Gottlieb Show
weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on Fox Sports
Radio and the iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
App That's Kelly Ford k Ford Power Rankings. How big
is Oklahoma State's game against Arkansas this weekend?
Speaker 1 (07:15):
Oklahoma States game against Arkansas is huge for both of
these teams. I'll focus on Oklahoma State because they're the
ones that have a good chance or a better chance
I would say, to make the Coffetball playoff given their
pass to an AQ in the Big twelve. I've got
this game with a watchability score of nine point zero
out of ten. So this is among you know, the
four or five best quote unquote games of the week.
Speaker 4 (07:38):
For me, I love it. It's a regional rivalry.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
They don't play this game enough and still Water, if
you these two teams have played semi regularly, you know,
over the course of their history, recent history, but they
don't play a lot in still Water. So I'm really
excited about this one. I've got a sixty six percent
win expectancy for Oklahoma State. I expect the offenses to
have the advantage in this one. Both of the offenses
should be able to score some points, but I do
think the Oklahoma State defense will be able to slow
(08:02):
down using the home field advantage, slow down that razorback
offense just enough to get the win. And so I
am projecting an Oklahoma State win. And certainly the Pokes
are right in the thick of that big twelve rate.
This won't affect that with regard to the conference standings,
but certainly they're going to want a good performance that
they can maintain that power rating that they have, which
right now is number twenty four in the country.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Twenty four in the country, which is lower than where
they're ranked but still, I mean, it's obviously you played
against South Dakota State. Now we see what happens when
you step up in in weight class. What's USC's path
look like. Remember, they got Michigan, but they got Michigan
coming up in two weeks. Michigan will already have seen Texas.
We don't know how good Michigan is. Penn State at home,
(08:43):
Ucla at home, I'm scuse mean a Notre dame at home,
Nebraska at home, they do go to Washington. What's USC's
path look like?
Speaker 4 (08:52):
For sure? And I'll answer the US.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
There is one more thing on Oklahoma State, because you
mentioned you know, number twenty four in the Power Ratings
is lower than where they are in the in the
Ape Pole, I have Oklahoma State ranked in a deserved
metric number ten in the country. So basically, what my
model suggesting right now is that Oklahoma State through one
week through week one has the tenth most impressive resume
in the country. So certainly, even though it was an
FCS team, South Dakota State's a good one, and I've
(09:16):
got Oklahoma State number ten and what I call my
most deserving rankings. Speaking of those rankings, USC is number
two this week for me, only Notre Dame had the
more impressive resume by my numbers right now than the Trojans,
who got that neutral site win in Las Vegas against
an LSU team that I have towerrated in the top twenty.
You ask me, what is the path? What does it
look like now? For USC? Projections are improved. The Trojans
(09:40):
were upgraded about two points in my model, and so
there's still going to be a handful of games this
year Michigan, Penn State, Washington on the road, and Notre Dame.
Those are the games, excuse me, Maryland as well on
the road. Those are the games that are currently projecting
as one possession games for me. So those are going
to be somewhere between a toss up, a field goal,
a touchdown, games that go either way essentially. But I've
(10:01):
got a thirty nine percent chance that USC wins at
least nine regular season games, which given their schedule, which
is among the more difficult in the country, would be
enough to be in that at large consideration. So right now,
based on my season simulations, I've got USD finishing the
year in the most deserving ranked number sixteen, which would
be among the first four teams out of the collegewall playoffs,
(10:22):
But certainly they positioned themselves well, this is the good offense.
We saw that with Miller Moss. I've got him top
five in the country and the defense was better, significantly
better than we've seen under Lincoln Riley. Really, at any
of this stops USC or Oklahoma in Week one against
LSU will want to see that progression continue. But USD
is certainly charging up the board there in the big
(10:43):
ten projected standings.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Kelly, last thing, who would be the team that you're
projecting to have the best finish that would be the
most surprising this early in the season.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
Good question, I'm looking so it has to be surprising
which to remove some teams.
Speaker 4 (11:01):
How about UCF.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
I've got UCF right now from a power rating standpoint,
they jumped all the way up into the top twenty five.
They're number twenty two for me now. They're up about
a field goal from a week ago. They absolutely throttled
New Hampshire. Who I get it in New Hampshire the
FCS rank, But UCF was really really good. I've got
them right now projecting the finish the year and the
most deserving number nineteen, So they're not among the first
four out, But to use a basketball term for you,
(11:23):
does they're among the next four out if you're talking
about the CFP at the end of the year. That's
the current projection. They're number three, and I projected Big
twelve standings behind the two favorites of Utah and Kansas State.
Of course, so how about UCF as a team that
maybe not a lot of people are talking about, but
could find themselves maybe in the top twenty at the committee'
rankings at the end of the year.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
It's pretty good. I did not know that one. I
did not see coming at all at all, at all.
That's what you're going for those exactly. That's why he's
the best. That's why he's Kelly Ford. That's why you
should follow him on social media. That's why you should
go to his website. Kelly, I really really appreciate you.
The football has been fun, the conversations equally is good.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Thanks, Doug, appreciate it. As always, be sure to catch
live editions of The Doug Gottlieb Show weekdays at three
pm Eastern noon Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the
iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Let's find out who are what is annoying Jason Stewart.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
And now it's your.
Speaker 5 (12:22):
Annoying, Doug. This is something near and dearer to your heart.
Thirty five years ago today, Mike and the Mad Dog
aired their first show in New York City. Sports talk
has never been the same. And it reminded me of
(12:46):
your Mike Francessa schedule reading.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
You have to win. That's a loss. That's a loss.
Get it. It's a loss. Dog, It's a loss. And
we know this.
Speaker 5 (13:00):
So that's Mike Francesa going over the Giants and or
Jets schedule right, And.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
To win that's a loss. To win, that's a loss.
So loss.
Speaker 5 (13:10):
It reminds me of what I'm It's one of my
bigger pet peeves.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
You know this.
Speaker 5 (13:13):
I've said this before, but I have to remind people
before the season this week, everyone was predicting their their
winners for divisions and everything else, and the schedule readers
were out in full force. They would take schedules of
teams that they liked and they would go down the
schedule for teams that we have no idea what's going
to happen to them? Injury wise, we have no idea
(13:35):
which teams are going to be much better than everyone
thought on the schedule, but they're still going to go
down the schedule and tell you with authority that that
definitely is going to be a win on November eighteenth.
Speaker 3 (13:47):
You know at the win that the win, that's the loss,
that's a win.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
Yeah, schedule guy is annoying, Like I don't know who's playing,
I don't know who's healthy, I don't know anything, but
I know who's going to win three months from now.
Speaker 5 (14:00):
It's a great way to just kill a segment. So
DeVante Adams, I find this annoying, but I do love
the fact that he's candid, like Davante says interesting things.
DeVante Adams was asked if he is unhappy in Las Vegas.
Speaker 6 (14:20):
The facts of the facts in that is not a fact.
I've probably spoken Jehaun Jackson maybe three or four times
in my life, and I never had a conversation with
him ever, and I put that on my kids. I've
never spoken him about any day. The only person I
really talked to about my feelings in general is my
wife probably, and she ain't out there leaking anything and
dropping stuff like that to meet me. So once again,
(14:41):
whatever you see they go, he from the horse's mouth,
it's probably bullshitt so and.
Speaker 5 (14:46):
It reminded me of this. So he denies that he's unhappy,
says he's happy he's got, you know, no desirable quarterbacks.
But last year this may have been like the SoundBite
of the year, but it was lost because it was
a part part of the Receiver doc on Netflix and
it kind of gotten eaten up by the news cycle.
But remember we play this on this podcast a couple
(15:08):
of months ago. This is him in a game with
Jimmy Garoppolo last year.
Speaker 6 (15:13):
I gotta get the fuck out of here for I
lose my fucking life. I have never been hit this
many fucking times in my careers. Every game I get
fucked up.
Speaker 5 (15:24):
It's really one of the sound bites of the year
that I don't know.
Speaker 3 (15:27):
Why that's ever. It's so good, so good.
Speaker 5 (15:30):
So I the annoying part is like, yeah, why would
DeVante think that he that we think he doesn't want
to be in Vegas after hearing that one?
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Well, look, in fairness, that was different coach, different quarterback
than he has now. But yes, we did actually hear
that from the horse's mouth.
Speaker 5 (15:49):
Yes, who else so the brand manager for Bill Belichick.
I really liked Bill Belichick. I My fondness for him
grew year after seeing him could just get shit on
by the Patriots, and then a lot of people kicked
him out the door, had some bad things to say.
There were reports of you know, him abusing people or something.
(16:12):
I don't know. Basically, the Patriots separated themselves from him
as quickly as they could, and I thought that was shitty.
And now he's got at least four or five jobs,
media jobs. Going into the season, He's going to be everywhere.
We're going to see more than you ever wanted to
see a Bill Belichick. But this is my problem. This
is what he posted on an Instagram story yesterday.
Speaker 7 (16:34):
Hello everyone surprised to see me here? Oh I am too.
Over the past few months and not being with a team,
I haven't had the opportunity express my thoughts at a
moment's notice. So now I'm changing that. I tried to
join snapface, but I couldn't find it. I decided this
was a good place for me to land so I
could talk to you and share what I'm up to
(16:56):
because there's a lot going on. So here I am
hell it's the face.
Speaker 5 (17:02):
I like the humor he put in there. I know
it was all scripted and it sounded very red. But
the brand manager for Belichick, Belichick, whoever is in his
agent's office that is in charge of this, don't make
him do unnatural things like there are just certain things
I love about Bill Belichick, and one of them is
he just reminds me of my dad. My dad doesn't
want technology. He hates text messaging, and I love that
(17:25):
about him. You could, you could just be an old guy.
You don't need to go on Instagram. So whoever forced
him to do that video and whoever forced him to
be on Instagram, I resent you. I'm not on snapface
and all that.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Yeah, I think it's the it's the we're trying so
hard to make it clever when it's already clever, Like
you don't have to say snapface. I know it's because
he'd said snappace previously.
Speaker 5 (17:47):
Pinston chat or whatever it is. Yeah, what else I
got the whoever the brand manager is for Belichick? Davante
Adams saying, why do you think I hate Vegas? And
then schedule readers.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
I think schedule readers, I just do like everybody does it.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
I don't do it.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Everybody else does it and acts like this is what
we're supposed to do, you know, and it's not. You
don't have to go and pick a schedule that you
don't know who's going to be playing it.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
You just don't.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
And people do it all the time just to just
to kill my ears on podcasts on radio because they
feel like it has to be done because they've always
done it, because that's what we did were little kids,
and your favorite team or your high school team would
get the schedule.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
Yeah, I'm it's just a why are we doing this?
Speaker 5 (18:46):
Why do.
Speaker 3 (18:49):
Because we can?
Speaker 5 (18:52):
I think Charles Barkley cussing is something you don't see
every day. He was on the Bill Simmons podcast.
Speaker 8 (18:59):
These ladies, and I'm a w NBA fan. They cannot
have fucked this Caitlin Clark thing up any worse if
they tried. If you got people in a room, if
you got a bunch of dudes in a room and
says let's fuck up the w NBA, we could have
came up a master plan. What these women have done.
(19:23):
This girl is incredible. What she did in college for
women's basketball, what she's doing in a w NBA.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
She turned the fever were one and eight. They have
a winning record, though.
Speaker 8 (19:35):
But the number of attention eyeballs, She's bought, the cars
and the pros, and for these women to have this
petty jealousness, he said to yourself, damn, what is going
on here? And the thing I love about her she
never says a word. But these ladies who I love
(19:58):
and respect their game, they couldn't have fucked this thing
up in a worse There's been so much negativity and
a lot of it is just petty jealousness.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
Well, I totally agree that that is completely petty and
a ton of jealousy, and it's.
Speaker 3 (20:16):
Really really, really really bad.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
Look but we've already kind of established that it just
sounds better and cooler when Charles Barkley says it right.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
Why do we play it for you? Because we can.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
That's it for the In the Bonus podcast, check at
the radio show twelve to two West Coast time, three
to five Eastern time, and of course you have this
in the Bonus podcast.
Speaker 3 (20:34):
This is the Doug Gottlieb Show.
All right, listen, this is the Doug Gottlieb Show, Years
in the Bonus with Doug gottlie.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What Up, Doug Gottlieb Show and the Bonus Fox Sports
Radio iHeartRadio app Welcome in Okay. So if it's your
first time listening to the in the Bonus podcast, you'll
know that basically, and as it plays out on the
iHeart podcast network is this becomes what the first hour,
(00:34):
even though we do it the last hour, all right,
So when you download, you hear this first, then you
hear the rest of the radio show. So basically this
is like an our radio show, only we can say
and do whatever we want and we don't have to
take traditional breaks and.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
It's a little bit more free flowing.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
We do have something called what the Fox Says, which
is basically we play for you clips of the day
on either Fox Sports Trader or Fox Sports One, then
I comment on it. We have some other cool stuff
we do, like Your Annoying where Jason Stewart, who is
annoyed by many, finds only a couple to be annoyed by.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
On a daily.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Basis, we try and determine who's the most annoying person
in sports on Earth. And then we have something called
because we Can, where we play for you, usually an
audio clip of somebody cursing many times with other innuendo,
and we can do it unedited because it's a podcast,
so we call it because we can. So that's a
(01:35):
and we have really good stuff today. Ah. Yes, kids,
it's that favorite time of the week when Kelly Ford
joins us because he's got his k Ford Ratings Index,
which is predictive before the season began. Now, of course
we're a couple weeks in the season, and now we've
got to figure out what's what Kelly. Most surprising results
(01:58):
so far that you've been able to track so far
in college football this year.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
Yeah, Doug, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
As always a couple surprising results this year already or
again only beating Idaho by ten at home. The Ducks
were downgraded more than seven points in my Power ratings
from week one to week two.
Speaker 4 (02:18):
Still a good Oregon team, still in the top ten
of the power ratings. I don't expect them.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
To play at that level moving forward every single week,
but certainly that was a jolt to the power ratings.
And I'll also go Florida state the fact that they
are zero and two after two games. In the preseason,
my numbers assigned just a two percent chance that the
Knowles would be oh and two at this stage. If
I want to go with a positive ole, Miss Alabama
(02:41):
Miami among the Power four teams that impressed the most
in Week one, and you can argue the level of competition.
Of course, Miami got the big win against of Florida,
but all those teams upgraded at least four points in
the model coming into Week two, so we learned a
lot even though there weren't a ton of unexpected win
loss results.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
Okay, Florida State, how surprising are those two losses?
Speaker 4 (03:04):
Huge, hugely surprising.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Like I said in the preseason, just a two percent
chance that Florida State was going to be zero to
two at this stage.
Speaker 4 (03:12):
Doug.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
The best way I can sum this up, it's kind
of been a game of hot potato in the ACC
of who's going to be the favorite, Who's going to
be the team that represents that conference as the AQ
in the CFP at the end of the year. But
Florida State started the year as my favorite in the ACC.
They now, according to my numbers, have a forty nine
percent chance to go bowling. So they went from projected
(03:32):
to have a buy in the playoffs to a fifty
to fifty proposition just to make a bowl game. I mean,
it's been remarkable. They've been downgraded eight points since the
start of the year. That's the biggest downgrade of any
team since the preseason. It's been really, really bad. They
are off this week, and they need this off week
because they have to do some soul searching and get
things right before they welcome Memphis and Cal before a
(03:53):
tough trip to SMU and we five. It's not easy
for Florida State right now, and they've got to figure
it out.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Okay, let's let's kind of go around the country a
little bit as some other teams and some other Miami
gets a big win over Florida. Who's more affected by
that by that game, Florida or Miami.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
So Miami is affected in the sense that they are
now my favorite in the ACC. They are projected to
be the number three seed in the playoffs now based
on how the playoff seeding works, they're my favorite in
the ACC.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
There's only one game left this year in which my
numbers now make Miami an underdog. That's Week eight at Louisville.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
I've got a forty five percent win expectancy there for
the Hurricane, so they had a nice little upgrade. They're
upset number eleven in the Power ratings. Florida meanwhile, was
downgraded and downgraded significantly their season projections now, Doug they
are projected to be third to bottom in the SEC,
only above Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. And those projections and
if you look at the SEC wins win totals just
(04:53):
in general, out of all twelve games league and non
league for this conference, Florida now has a lower projected
rate ular season win total at three point nine than
any team in the SEC. Even Vanderbilt is projected to
win four point four games after their great win upset
win over Virginia Tech. So it is not looking good
for Florida. Billy Napier, maybe.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
They've got something. And DJ Lagway at quarterback.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
They certainly look better once he came into the game.
But Billy Napier has got to get some results here
in short order to keep that job, and I think
they had the talent to do it. But it was
not a good performance in Week one.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Okay, I'm fascinated, fascinated by the SEC taking some l's early.
What does this in your preseason prediction? You had five
SEC teams in the College Football Playoff? Does any of
that change with Florida losing, LSU losing who else somebody
(05:48):
else lost.
Speaker 3 (05:49):
That I'm not thinking. We had text A and M.
Text A and M lost to Notre Dame. YEP.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
So right now my projected costball playoff picture which I
update every single Thursday, so it's on the website.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
Now at kfourrats dot com.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
I've got Georgia still as my number one overall seed
projected wins the SEC. Alabama has actually jumped up to
my number five seeds, so the best of the at largest,
we've got old myths who looked really really good against
an FCS team. They're at number seven. Texas is at
number nine, and right now that is the list of
SEC team, So I am down to what is that
four SEC team?
Speaker 4 (06:22):
Excuse me?
Speaker 1 (06:23):
No, Oklahoma. Oklahoma's number eleven. They are in the SEC.
Now I'm still trying to get used to that they
are in the SEC. They are my fifth team. So
I still have five teams from the SEC in the
projected bracket and that's not even accounting for Tennessee, Missouri, Auburn.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
All of those.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Teams in the first four out for me right now.
So yes, there were some results that the SEC is
not going to love from a win loss perspective for
the three big ones we mentioned an MLSU Florida. But
with regard to the power ratings, the projection, they are
still going to be very well represented in this playoff,
and they've got a lot of teams lurking ready to
jump up if any of these other teams and other
conferences fail to make an impact here moving forward, be
(06:58):
sure to catch live editions of The Doug Gottlieb Show
weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on Fox Sports
Radio and the iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
App That's Kelly Ford k Ford Power Rankings. How big
is Oklahoma State's game against Arkansas this weekend?
Speaker 1 (07:15):
Oklahoma States game against Arkansas is huge for both of
these teams. I'll focus on Oklahoma State because they're the
ones that have a good chance or a better chance
I would say, to make the Coffetball playoff given their
pass to an AQ in the Big twelve. I've got
this game with a watchability score of nine point zero
out of ten. So this is among you know, the
four or five best quote unquote games of the week.
Speaker 4 (07:38):
For me, I love it. It's a regional rivalry.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
They don't play this game enough and still Water, if
you these two teams have played semi regularly, you know,
over the course of their history, recent history, but they
don't play a lot in still Water. So I'm really
excited about this one. I've got a sixty six percent
win expectancy for Oklahoma State. I expect the offenses to
have the advantage in this one. Both of the offenses
should be able to score some points, but I do
think the Oklahoma State defense will be able to slow
(08:02):
down using the home field advantage, slow down that razorback
offense just enough to get the win. And so I
am projecting an Oklahoma State win. And certainly the Pokes
are right in the thick of that big twelve rate.
This won't affect that with regard to the conference standings,
but certainly they're going to want a good performance that
they can maintain that power rating that they have, which
right now is number twenty four in the country.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Twenty four in the country, which is lower than where
they're ranked but still, I mean, it's obviously you played
against South Dakota State. Now we see what happens when
you step up in in weight class. What's USC's path
look like. Remember, they got Michigan, but they got Michigan
coming up in two weeks. Michigan will already have seen Texas.
We don't know how good Michigan is. Penn State at home,
(08:43):
Ucla at home, I'm scuse mean a Notre dame at home,
Nebraska at home, they do go to Washington. What's USC's
path look like?
Speaker 4 (08:52):
For sure? And I'll answer the US.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
There is one more thing on Oklahoma State, because you
mentioned you know, number twenty four in the Power Ratings
is lower than where they are in the in the
Ape Pole, I have Oklahoma State ranked in a deserved
metric number ten in the country. So basically, what my
model suggesting right now is that Oklahoma State through one
week through week one has the tenth most impressive resume
in the country. So certainly, even though it was an
FCS team, South Dakota State's a good one, and I've
(09:16):
got Oklahoma State number ten and what I call my
most deserving rankings. Speaking of those rankings, USC is number
two this week for me, only Notre Dame had the
more impressive resume by my numbers right now than the Trojans,
who got that neutral site win in Las Vegas against
an LSU team that I have towerrated in the top twenty.
You ask me, what is the path? What does it
look like now? For USC? Projections are improved. The Trojans
(09:40):
were upgraded about two points in my model, and so
there's still going to be a handful of games this
year Michigan, Penn State, Washington on the road, and Notre Dame.
Those are the games, excuse me, Maryland as well on
the road. Those are the games that are currently projecting
as one possession games for me. So those are going
to be somewhere between a toss up, a field goal,
a touchdown, games that go either way essentially. But I've
(10:01):
got a thirty nine percent chance that USC wins at
least nine regular season games, which given their schedule, which
is among the more difficult in the country, would be
enough to be in that at large consideration. So right now,
based on my season simulations, I've got USD finishing the
year in the most deserving ranked number sixteen, which would
be among the first four teams out of the collegewall playoffs,
(10:22):
But certainly they positioned themselves well, this is the good offense.
We saw that with Miller Moss. I've got him top
five in the country and the defense was better, significantly
better than we've seen under Lincoln Riley. Really, at any
of this stops USC or Oklahoma in Week one against
LSU will want to see that progression continue. But USD
is certainly charging up the board there in the big
(10:43):
ten projected standings.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Kelly, last thing, who would be the team that you're
projecting to have the best finish that would be the
most surprising this early in the season.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
Good question, I'm looking so it has to be surprising
which to remove some teams.
Speaker 4 (11:01):
How about UCF.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
I've got UCF right now from a power rating standpoint,
they jumped all the way up into the top twenty five.
They're number twenty two for me now. They're up about
a field goal from a week ago. They absolutely throttled
New Hampshire. Who I get it in New Hampshire the
FCS rank, But UCF was really really good. I've got
them right now projecting the finish the year and the
most deserving number nineteen, So they're not among the first
four out, But to use a basketball term for you,
(11:23):
does they're among the next four out if you're talking
about the CFP at the end of the year. That's
the current projection. They're number three, and I projected Big
twelve standings behind the two favorites of Utah and Kansas State.
Of course, so how about UCF as a team that
maybe not a lot of people are talking about, but
could find themselves maybe in the top twenty at the committee'
rankings at the end of the year.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
It's pretty good. I did not know that one. I
did not see coming at all at all, at all.
That's what you're going for those exactly. That's why he's
the best. That's why he's Kelly Ford. That's why you
should follow him on social media. That's why you should
go to his website. Kelly, I really really appreciate you.
The football has been fun, the conversations equally is good.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Thanks, Doug, appreciate it. As always, be sure to catch
live editions of The Doug Gottlieb Show weekdays at three
pm Eastern noon Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the
iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Let's find out who are what is annoying Jason Stewart.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
And now it's your.
Speaker 5 (12:22):
Annoying, Doug. This is something near and dearer to your heart.
Thirty five years ago today, Mike and the Mad Dog
aired their first show in New York City. Sports talk
has never been the same. And it reminded me of
(12:46):
your Mike Francessa schedule reading.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
You have to win. That's a loss. That's a loss.
Get it. It's a loss. Dog, It's a loss. And
we know this.
Speaker 5 (13:00):
So that's Mike Francesa going over the Giants and or
Jets schedule right, And.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
To win that's a loss. To win, that's a loss.
So loss.
Speaker 5 (13:10):
It reminds me of what I'm It's one of my
bigger pet peeves.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
You know this.
Speaker 5 (13:13):
I've said this before, but I have to remind people
before the season this week, everyone was predicting their their
winners for divisions and everything else, and the schedule readers
were out in full force. They would take schedules of
teams that they liked and they would go down the
schedule for teams that we have no idea what's going
to happen to them? Injury wise, we have no idea
(13:35):
which teams are going to be much better than everyone
thought on the schedule, but they're still going to go
down the schedule and tell you with authority that that
definitely is going to be a win on November eighteenth.
Speaker 3 (13:47):
You know at the win that the win, that's the loss,
that's a win.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
Yeah, schedule guy is annoying, Like I don't know who's playing,
I don't know who's healthy, I don't know anything, but
I know who's going to win three months from now.
Speaker 5 (14:00):
It's a great way to just kill a segment. So
DeVante Adams, I find this annoying, but I do love
the fact that he's candid, like Davante says interesting things.
DeVante Adams was asked if he is unhappy in Las Vegas.
Speaker 6 (14:20):
The facts of the facts in that is not a fact.
I've probably spoken Jehaun Jackson maybe three or four times
in my life, and I never had a conversation with
him ever, and I put that on my kids. I've
never spoken him about any day. The only person I
really talked to about my feelings in general is my
wife probably, and she ain't out there leaking anything and
dropping stuff like that to meet me. So once again,
(14:41):
whatever you see they go, he from the horse's mouth,
it's probably bullshitt so and.
Speaker 5 (14:46):
It reminded me of this. So he denies that he's unhappy,
says he's happy he's got, you know, no desirable quarterbacks.
But last year this may have been like the SoundBite
of the year, but it was lost because it was
a part part of the Receiver doc on Netflix and
it kind of gotten eaten up by the news cycle.
But remember we play this on this podcast a couple
(15:08):
of months ago. This is him in a game with
Jimmy Garoppolo last year.
Speaker 6 (15:13):
I gotta get the fuck out of here for I
lose my fucking life. I have never been hit this
many fucking times in my careers. Every game I get
fucked up.
Speaker 5 (15:24):
It's really one of the sound bites of the year
that I don't know.
Speaker 3 (15:27):
Why that's ever. It's so good, so good.
Speaker 5 (15:30):
So I the annoying part is like, yeah, why would
DeVante think that he that we think he doesn't want
to be in Vegas after hearing that one?
Speaker 2 (15:40):
Well, look, in fairness, that was different coach, different quarterback
than he has now. But yes, we did actually hear
that from the horse's mouth.
Speaker 5 (15:49):
Yes, who else so the brand manager for Bill Belichick.
I really liked Bill Belichick. I My fondness for him
grew year after seeing him could just get shit on
by the Patriots, and then a lot of people kicked
him out the door, had some bad things to say.
There were reports of you know, him abusing people or something.
(16:12):
I don't know. Basically, the Patriots separated themselves from him
as quickly as they could, and I thought that was shitty.
And now he's got at least four or five jobs,
media jobs. Going into the season, He's going to be everywhere.
We're going to see more than you ever wanted to
see a Bill Belichick. But this is my problem. This
is what he posted on an Instagram story yesterday.
Speaker 7 (16:34):
Hello everyone surprised to see me here? Oh I am too.
Over the past few months and not being with a team,
I haven't had the opportunity express my thoughts at a
moment's notice. So now I'm changing that. I tried to
join snapface, but I couldn't find it. I decided this
was a good place for me to land so I
could talk to you and share what I'm up to
(16:56):
because there's a lot going on. So here I am
hell it's the face.
Speaker 5 (17:02):
I like the humor he put in there. I know
it was all scripted and it sounded very red. But
the brand manager for Belichick, Belichick, whoever is in his
agent's office that is in charge of this, don't make
him do unnatural things like there are just certain things
I love about Bill Belichick, and one of them is
he just reminds me of my dad. My dad doesn't
want technology. He hates text messaging, and I love that
(17:25):
about him. You could, you could just be an old guy.
You don't need to go on Instagram. So whoever forced
him to do that video and whoever forced him to
be on Instagram, I resent you. I'm not on snapface
and all that.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Yeah, I think it's the it's the we're trying so
hard to make it clever when it's already clever, Like
you don't have to say snapface. I know it's because
he'd said snappace previously.
Speaker 5 (17:47):
Pinston chat or whatever it is. Yeah, what else I
got the whoever the brand manager is for Belichick? Davante
Adams saying, why do you think I hate Vegas? And
then schedule readers.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
I think schedule readers, I just do like everybody does it.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
I don't do it.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Everybody else does it and acts like this is what
we're supposed to do, you know, and it's not. You
don't have to go and pick a schedule that you
don't know who's going to be playing it.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
You just don't.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
And people do it all the time just to just
to kill my ears on podcasts on radio because they
feel like it has to be done because they've always
done it, because that's what we did were little kids,
and your favorite team or your high school team would
get the schedule.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
Yeah, I'm it's just a why are we doing this?
Speaker 5 (18:46):
Why do.
Speaker 3 (18:49):
Because we can?
Speaker 5 (18:52):
I think Charles Barkley cussing is something you don't see
every day. He was on the Bill Simmons podcast.
Speaker 8 (18:59):
These ladies, and I'm a w NBA fan. They cannot
have fucked this Caitlin Clark thing up any worse if
they tried. If you got people in a room, if
you got a bunch of dudes in a room and
says let's fuck up the w NBA, we could have
came up a master plan. What these women have done.
(19:23):
This girl is incredible. What she did in college for
women's basketball, what she's doing in a w NBA.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
She turned the fever were one and eight. They have
a winning record, though.
Speaker 8 (19:35):
But the number of attention eyeballs, She's bought, the cars
and the pros, and for these women to have this
petty jealousness, he said to yourself, damn, what is going
on here? And the thing I love about her she
never says a word. But these ladies who I love
(19:58):
and respect their game, they couldn't have fucked this thing
up in a worse There's been so much negativity and
a lot of it is just petty jealousness.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
Well, I totally agree that that is completely petty and
a ton of jealousy, and it's.
Speaker 3 (20:16):
Really really, really really bad.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
Look but we've already kind of established that it just
sounds better and cooler when Charles Barkley says it right.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
Why do we play it for you? Because we can.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
That's it for the In the Bonus podcast, check at
the radio show twelve to two West Coast time, three
to five Eastern time, and of course you have this
in the Bonus podcast.
Speaker 3 (20:34):
This is the Doug Gottlieb Show.
Host
Doug Gottlieb
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