October 3, 2025 • 19 mins
Doug riffs on the Major League Baseball playoffs and the poor calls by the umpires, also how that compares to the way the WNBA is treating it's bad officiating. Doug welcomes Kelley Ford with KFordRatings.com to break down the weekend of college football.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, this is the Doug Gottlieb Show. Here's in
the bonus with Doug Gottlieb.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
What up Doug Gotlieb Show. In the Bonus Fox Sports Radio,
iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Welcome in. Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do
Do Do Do Do Do do do? I think I've
said this before, and I said it yesterday on the
radio show. I just I really do love October baseball.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
And you know it's been warm, like in Chicago last night, beautiful,
warm night. Same thing at Yankee Stadium. Obviously, it's always
beautiful at h at the Ravine. But last night the
Yankees took down the Red Sox. Last night the Cubs
took down the Padres, and I thought it was really
(00:56):
interesting and really telling as the the umpires walked out
the field and the last strike strike three to end
the series, wasn't a strike. And we talked about it
yesterday where we're like, why don't they use AP We've
been talking about they have abs, they're gonna use it
next year, They've already tested, they've already used it. They
used it in the Ulstar game. Like why not use
Like what is actually the downside to using it? But
(01:19):
it so it's fasting and there were some bad calls,
but as the umpires left the field, the padres, I mean,
they let them have it like some terrible fans. The
juxtaposition of that and what's happening in the WNBA, where
the officiating has been called into question from the start
of the season on and now you have one of
the league's best players calling for a change atop the
(01:41):
leadership of the commissioner. And I would just say this,
if we're reasonable people. I don't know how well or
how poorly the commissioner has handled this. I'm guessing that
some of the things that were reported that she said,
there's no way, she said, there's no way, she said, hey,
you can thank your lucky stars that you're in the WNBA.
(02:01):
That's just not realistic. But all of it appears to
be over the officiating. And here is the difference in
men's sports and women's sports. The officiating can call into
question in the NBA all the time, in the NFL
all the time. In Major League Baseball's they were nasty
last night, but they didn't call for a change the
leadership of the league because they didn't like the officiating.
(02:25):
It does feel like this is the WNBA is a
very much of a snapshot of a part of society
that is not happy with anything right. And you know,
look at our own hometowns, no one likes. You may
(02:45):
like your own congressman because you've voted for him, but
you don't like Congress. You don't like the principal at
the school, you don't like your teachers, you don't like
we don't like anyone in positions of authority. And it's
a little bit of cancel culture, really is. And if
the issue with the WNBA's commissioner is that she hasn't
(03:09):
changed or fixed the officiating in season, you know, like,
that's not a reason to get rid of commissioner. If
it's because she's drawing a hard and fast line on
their collective ar in your agreement. Again, if you don't
like it, bargain for it. If you think your position
is strong enough, don't show up. Don't show up. But
(03:30):
I find it really interesting that the woman who's leading
this charge, her husband is directly connected with a league
that in many ways competes with the WNBA, Like don't
we all see that? And so blindly the somebody with
an obvious bias and focus towards changing their own financial gains.
(03:54):
Just wants change, and so what I you know, this
happen with Roger Goodell and there is no change made,
and the NFL has continue to pile more and more money.
The players have made more and more money. They still
are probably unhappy, but whatever, they're all happy on the
first and the fifteenth. If the WNBA doesn't like their
deal and they think there's more money out there, they
(04:17):
can withhold their services, they can strike and they can
make the WNBA playball. Will they lose a year of
money in the process. Possibly, But there's something else at
work here which is not about officiating.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
I don't think.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Doug Gottlieb
Show weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on Fox
Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
It's the Doug Gottlieb Show here on Fox Sports Radio.
And let's talk some college football, shall we. Kelly Ford
joins us. He's got his k Ford Ratings index. Of course,
you can see that on Twitter, you can see it online,
you can go to his site, and there's a lot
of different ways in which he uses the computer data
to get you interested. About this weekend in college football?
(05:05):
You have your best watch, right, Mike? Most interesting?
Speaker 3 (05:07):
What's like?
Speaker 2 (05:07):
What the most interesting watch? Based upon what Themuter computer
spits out, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
Doug, So every Friday update the watchability scores, and so
for this week, you know the top three games that
really stand out to me. In the primetime window, we
have Miami going on the road to Florida State. That
game's got a watchability score of nine point seven out
of ten on my watchability scale. And then two afternoon
window games. I know the ranked versus rank game that
(05:35):
everyone's excited about is Vanderbilt at Alabama. I have that
with a nine point one. Number three. I actually have
Texas at Florida with a nine point six as my
number two game of the week. So an ACC Sunshine
States showdown in primetime, and then a couple of SEC
matchups big brands in Texas and Florida as well as
ranked opponents here with Vanderbilt and Alabama. Obviously, the storylines
(05:59):
abound in all of these games. Miami, can they finally
make a collegetball playoff? Florida State? Could they bounce back
after what was a very disappointing loss last Friday? Night
in Charlottesville and conference play Florida the hot seat for
Billy Napier. Texas already has lost to Ohio State. They've
got to keep it going now to maintain that momentum
in SDC play and charge towards Atlanta. Vanderbilt a hot team,
(06:21):
number four offense in the entire country for me, Doug
right now, diego Pavia. You either love them or you
hate them, but they're winning right now. Alabama already has
a loss on the resume, plus that big win against
Georgia last week? Can they can they reset and come
back down from that? They know this Commodore team upset
them in Nashville a year ago.
Speaker 5 (06:39):
Lots of storylines were these top three games?
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Okay, so I guess here here's the question. Let's start
with Vanderbilt and Alabama. What's the like? I thought Alabama like,
I wasn't jumping off the ship when they went to
Florida State and lost. I was surprised by how they
led kind of kickoff to finish in Athens, but they
(07:03):
held on to win. The number is a big number,
but both are coming off of big wins. How's the
computer see that game going?
Speaker 5 (07:11):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (07:12):
I never jumped off the Alabama bandwagon either doing Certainly
it was a shock to the model to see Florida
State going because we didn't know what the Noles were
going to be this year. We were going to get
the team from two years ago that was you know,
snub from the CFP, or last year's team, you know,
arguably the most disappointing in the country and maybe in
program history coming in too and ten. We didn't know
what we were going to get. But Alabama, the model's
(07:33):
been pretty consistent on the tide and they're right now
the number three power rated team. For me, I've got
this with an eighty two percent win ex vectancy for Alabama.
I mentioned Vanderbilt has the number four offense in the country. Again,
Diego Pavia. What he's doing, what Clark Lee has got
going on at Vanderbilt is nothing to stick your nose
up at. But Alabama, when it comes down to it,
(07:55):
they know this team beat them a year ago. Yes,
they just beat Georgia. I expect them to get refocused
because the difference dug between last year and this year.
Coming off the big Georgia wins, Alabama already has that
loss on the resume. They know that if they lose
this one, their margin for air is very small. It's
not totally eliminated. Last year, nine to three was not
good enough for Alabama to get in. Why would we
(08:16):
think this year would be any different. They know they've
got to win this one to keep that margin of
air with what is a very difficult sate sec slate
still upcoming road trips to Missouri and Auburn, of course, Tennessee, LSU,
Oklahoma all coming to Tuscalusa. They cannot afford to drop
this game. Vanderbilt playing with a little bit of house money.
Speaker 5 (08:35):
Not a lot of people thought they'd be five to zero.
Speaker 4 (08:37):
The model likes Alabama to take care of business here.
Vanderbilt passed the victory, though, is just this offense outscoring
the Crimson tide. This game's in Tusa Lousa. I think
it's a big, big ass.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Okay, so help me out in this perspective. You mentioned
Miami and Florida State. Florida State has to bounce back.
I lost an absolute heartbreaker, right probably like the best
cat that ends up being an incomplete pass I've ever seen.
And Virginia holds on for a win. They're matching up
with the Miami team, who wasn't just Florida. The beat
(09:10):
South Florida the week, you know, a couple weeks ago
as well. So they're coming off with two big wins,
but very different going to Tallahassee. How's the computer see
that game going?
Speaker 4 (09:18):
Yeah, Miami's resume is incredibly impressive. I have them as
number two in my most Deserving rankings. You know, this
team knocked off Notre Dame, this team beat USF, this
team beat Florida, really quality wins here. Now this is
their first trip, though away from home, so it's their
first time having to go on the road this season.
Miami was off last week. I think that's worth noting
(09:39):
here from the scheduling dynamic perspective. Florida State, of course,
as we talked about it in your right, a crazy
way to lose the game, But Florida State shouldn't have
been in that position against the Virginia team that is
much better than they've been in recent years. But still
Florida State, you felt they should have played better. Last week,
The Model took no in downgraded the Noles five points.
That's a massive downgrade for one week far into the season.
(10:01):
The Model does like Miami sixty seven percent win expectanc
So basically, you play this game three times, Florida State's
going to be expected to win one of those three.
Speaker 5 (10:10):
Can this be the one?
Speaker 4 (10:11):
Because yeah, Florida State needs this one. Both of these
teams need to be ten and two or better to
be in the CFP at large discussion based on my
model and my schedule difficulty ratings. As things stands, and
if we look at Miami's remaining schedule.
Speaker 5 (10:24):
It is manageable.
Speaker 4 (10:25):
There is not a single game after this week that
currently has a projected spread of one possession. Florida State meanwhile,
still has three more one possession projected spread left on
the schedule, a road trip to Clemson in week eleven,
and then to close the year, two consecutive road trips
of Friday night.
Speaker 5 (10:42):
We've already seen Florida State lose on.
Speaker 4 (10:43):
A Friday night this year, a Friday Night at NC State,
and then you close the year in the Swamp against
the Florida team that who knows.
Speaker 5 (10:50):
What that team is looking like at that point of
the season.
Speaker 4 (10:52):
But Florida State has a more difficult path moving forward,
and they already have the loss.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
Florida State needs this one at home.
Speaker 4 (10:58):
But my numbers like the cane sixty seven percent, one expectancy.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Sixty seven percent, sixty seven percent. Okay, so let me
the other part about this week in college football is
there's a lot of massive home dogs. You know, produce
a big home dog to Illinois. Uh, Cincinnati's a home
dog to U to Iowa State. You look kind of
(11:23):
further and further down the slate and you see kind
of this this one continuing sort of narrative, Virginia coming
off of a gigantic win, going to Louisville, who's undefeated,
and now they're actually Louisville's actually a home favorite. Uh.
Despite that, does the computer see any of those home
dogs jumping up and getting a win?
Speaker 4 (11:42):
Yeah, I'm looking here, you know, kind of in my
Week six upset alert. That's where I like to look at.
I don't look at the A people. I look at
my k Ford most Deserving rankings. Once the CFP starts
putting out their numbers, I'll use that for the top
twenty five. But for now, I mean, Doug, there's you know, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven.
There's sevent teams and most deserving, top twenty five that
are off this week.
Speaker 5 (12:02):
If we look at the.
Speaker 4 (12:03):
Teams that are at home that have the greatest chance
to win this week, I mean, I'm looking Illinois's got
a sixteen percent loss expectancy. You mentioned that game Texas Tech,
nineteen percent chance to lose.
Speaker 5 (12:20):
They're going on the road to a.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
Houston team that I also have in the most Deserving
rankings right now at number twenty one. I don't think
the AP is giving them enough love at this point.
You know, Maryland is a team that is undefeated right now.
I have them number twenty four in the most Deserving rankings.
I got a sixty six percent loss expectancy for their
game against Washington as the Huskies are coming in off
of a loss at home to Ohio State snapped that
(12:43):
long win streak that the Huskies had there in Seattle.
So those are some you know, Louisville you mentioned that game,
thirty percent lose expectancy, so seventy percent chance to beat
the Who's So yeah. There. These are the weeks, though,
Doug where it appears calm, right.
Speaker 5 (12:58):
There's not.
Speaker 4 (12:58):
There's not a lot of games that you're looking at saying, man,
that's a triggy game or that's a trap game. These
are the kind of weeks that college football has proven
to us over the years are the weeks that produce
the most chaos. So it does appear on the surface like, hey,
we have a good idea of what we're expecting this week,
let's just be careful because these are the kind of
weeks that typically come up and give us a lot
(13:18):
of surprises.
Speaker 5 (13:19):
So you know, for me, I'm looking at Vanderbilt, Houston.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
Florida State, Maryland, Iowa State among the teams that I
have ranked right now in the top twenty five that
are most likely to drop a game here in week six.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Doug Gottlieb
Show weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on Fox
Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Okay, Notre Dame look dominant, Arkansas. They got boise To
State coming in at home. They finished undefeated. Do you
believe they get in the College fall playoffs?
Speaker 5 (13:50):
I do, Doug.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
And here's something that I've caught some heat four on
social media, some big surprise, right, people not.
Speaker 5 (13:56):
Liking what someone posts on social.
Speaker 4 (13:58):
Media, even though it's just objective numbers the Fighting Irish.
Right now they've started ZH to two, they bounce back here.
My model, the predicted model, has them number four in
the entire country. With regard to looking forward, who are
the strongest teams, like right now, Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama.
Speaker 5 (14:15):
Notre Dame.
Speaker 4 (14:16):
They're coming in right next at number four. Now, from
a resume standpoint, I don't have them ranked in the
top twenty five because based on what they've accomplished to date,
they don't deserve to be ranked. But if you're asking me,
you know, if they've finished ten and two, are they
going to get in I would lean towards yes. And
right now there's a forty five percent chance that Notre
Dame runs the table and finishes this thing ten and two.
(14:37):
Based on my numbers, there's not a single game remaining
that the Fighting Irish are a single possession favorite. They
are a favorite of more than one possession in every
single one of their remaining games. It looks like the
trickiest might be at Week eight Week eight home game
against usc That's the only game left on the schedule
that has less than an eighty six percent win expectanc
Before the Fighting Irish that's how we get to that
(14:58):
forty five percent chance to run the t. So Notre Dame,
they have an incredibly strong offense. It's number three in
the country. I think it's a defense that's been so
surprising to me and many others. This defense has been
so strong since Marcus Freeman has been in South Bend.
This year, just number forty four and falling.
Speaker 5 (15:13):
Yes, it was a good showing at Arkansas, but.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
Giving up thirty points to Purdue, giving up forty one
points to Texas A and m twenty seven to a
Miami team. Yes, these are good teams, but we've expected
more out of the Notre Dame defense. So yeah, I
think if Notre Dame gets there, they're ten and two,
they have that big brand, They're on a quote ten
game winning streak. I don't think that should matter, but
the committee certainly plays his value on it. I do
think ten and two will be enough for Notre Dame
at a minimum to be in the discussion and likely
(15:37):
enough to earn a bid into the CFP.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Awesome stuff. Awesome stuff.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
Well, listen, it's a it's all. It's one of those
weeks where it doesn't look like a big week on
paper right, which usually leads to the big week. That's
the way I I don't know if I under like
we don't have a you know, a Tennessee game like
we had a couple of weeks ago. We don't have
a Georgia Alabama game. I was Florida Florida State. We do,
(16:04):
but we don't have Penn State Oregon like we did
last week. But we do have a lot of I
do want to ask one more since we talked Notre
Dame long term, can Penn State recover and get in
the college ball playoff?
Speaker 4 (16:16):
Absolutely, Penn State can recover and get back into the
costball playoff conversation here, Doug, Yeah, So if I pull
up the Penn State projection, excuse me on my website here,
So Penn State is still number nine in the model.
Yet they were downgraded two points for the performance at
home against Oregon, and yet their pass got more narrow
because of that loss, because you look at their non
(16:37):
commerce schedule in particular. I mean, it's really really bad,
and that's why Penn State is nowhere near right now
my top twenty five most deserving rankings. But they're still
a really good team, and I still have dog. Let's
say ten and two, right, ten and two is probably
the threshold that they need to reach to be in
that at large conversation. And there's still a path for
them to get to Indianapolis at the Big Pen Championship game.
(16:57):
Now it's a slim one now actually because Oregon holds
the head to head against them. But Penn State, you know,
if you look at their remaining.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
Schedule, I've got three games that have a you know.
Speaker 4 (17:07):
Either a one possession spread or they're an underdog of
more than one possession, and it's actually three consecutive games.
Week eight, they go on the road to Iowa. Sixty
six percent win expectancy for the Nidney Lions, so that's
a one possession spread they're often Week nine, then it's
a really tough trip to Columbus in week ten, twenty
one percent win expectancy there. And then in week eleven,
the Hoosiers come to Happy Valley and I've got a
(17:27):
fifty one percent win expectancy for Penn State. So you
look at that, you're gonna say, Okay, we have to
win all the other games on the schedule and then
we probably have to go two and one.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
Are better in those games. Right now, my model gives.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
That a twenty four percent chance of happening for Penn
State to reach at least ten ten wins. So right
now it's more likely than not that they don't reach ten.
But absolutely this team still has the talent. The defense
is really good. It's number five in the country. The
offense has been disappointing. There's no two ways about it.
You bring it back dro Roller, who many talk about.
You know, the former five star had some Heisman hype.
Actually that bring up the running back, the skill position players,
(18:00):
all sorts of toys. This Penn State team was geared
towards winning a national championship in twenty twenty five. They
were all in like Ohio State was all in a
year ago, and Pence that even brought in Jim Knowles
from Ohio State. All they have to do is follow
the Ohio State footprint.
Speaker 5 (18:13):
The Buck Guys lost two games in the.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
Regular season last year, one of which was two Oregons,
and Penn State has lost to Oregon. They might lose
to the Buck guys. All they have to do is
get in the dance. I think ten and two is enough.
Speaker 5 (18:22):
To do it.
Speaker 4 (18:23):
Once they do We've seen Ohio State last year get
hot at the right time, and Penn State certainly has
that feeling they.
Speaker 5 (18:29):
Can do it.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
Many will say they can't because they haven't. I'm more
in the camp of that they have it, but that
doesn't mean they can't. So we will see. But yes,
their pass is more narrow than it was a week ago.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
That is for certain awesome stuff. As always, that's that's
Kelly Ford K four Ratings Index. Check out on social
media Twitter, Instagram, course you can see his website as well.
He's the best there is. Kelly, thanks so much for
joining us.
Speaker 5 (18:52):
Thank you, Doug, I appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
All right, that's it for the end the Bonus Podcast.
I'm Doug Gottlieb. We'll check you tomorrow. This is in
the Bonus
All right, this is the Doug Gottlieb Show. Here's in
the bonus with Doug Gottlieb.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
What up Doug Gotlieb Show. In the Bonus Fox Sports Radio,
iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Welcome in. Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do
Do Do Do Do Do do do? I think I've
said this before, and I said it yesterday on the
radio show. I just I really do love October baseball.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
And you know it's been warm, like in Chicago last night, beautiful,
warm night. Same thing at Yankee Stadium. Obviously, it's always
beautiful at h at the Ravine. But last night the
Yankees took down the Red Sox. Last night the Cubs
took down the Padres, and I thought it was really
(00:56):
interesting and really telling as the the umpires walked out
the field and the last strike strike three to end
the series, wasn't a strike. And we talked about it
yesterday where we're like, why don't they use AP We've
been talking about they have abs, they're gonna use it
next year, They've already tested, they've already used it. They
used it in the Ulstar game. Like why not use
Like what is actually the downside to using it? But
(01:19):
it so it's fasting and there were some bad calls,
but as the umpires left the field, the padres, I mean,
they let them have it like some terrible fans. The
juxtaposition of that and what's happening in the WNBA, where
the officiating has been called into question from the start
of the season on and now you have one of
the league's best players calling for a change atop the
(01:41):
leadership of the commissioner. And I would just say this,
if we're reasonable people. I don't know how well or
how poorly the commissioner has handled this. I'm guessing that
some of the things that were reported that she said,
there's no way, she said, there's no way, she said, hey,
you can thank your lucky stars that you're in the WNBA.
(02:01):
That's just not realistic. But all of it appears to
be over the officiating. And here is the difference in
men's sports and women's sports. The officiating can call into
question in the NBA all the time, in the NFL
all the time. In Major League Baseball's they were nasty
last night, but they didn't call for a change the
leadership of the league because they didn't like the officiating.
(02:25):
It does feel like this is the WNBA is a
very much of a snapshot of a part of society
that is not happy with anything right. And you know,
look at our own hometowns, no one likes. You may
(02:45):
like your own congressman because you've voted for him, but
you don't like Congress. You don't like the principal at
the school, you don't like your teachers, you don't like
we don't like anyone in positions of authority. And it's
a little bit of cancel culture, really is. And if
the issue with the WNBA's commissioner is that she hasn't
(03:09):
changed or fixed the officiating in season, you know, like,
that's not a reason to get rid of commissioner. If
it's because she's drawing a hard and fast line on
their collective ar in your agreement. Again, if you don't
like it, bargain for it. If you think your position
is strong enough, don't show up. Don't show up. But
(03:30):
I find it really interesting that the woman who's leading
this charge, her husband is directly connected with a league
that in many ways competes with the WNBA, Like don't
we all see that? And so blindly the somebody with
an obvious bias and focus towards changing their own financial gains.
(03:54):
Just wants change, and so what I you know, this
happen with Roger Goodell and there is no change made,
and the NFL has continue to pile more and more money.
The players have made more and more money. They still
are probably unhappy, but whatever, they're all happy on the
first and the fifteenth. If the WNBA doesn't like their
deal and they think there's more money out there, they
(04:17):
can withhold their services, they can strike and they can
make the WNBA playball. Will they lose a year of
money in the process. Possibly, But there's something else at
work here which is not about officiating.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
I don't think.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Doug Gottlieb
Show weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on Fox
Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
It's the Doug Gottlieb Show here on Fox Sports Radio.
And let's talk some college football, shall we. Kelly Ford
joins us. He's got his k Ford Ratings index. Of course,
you can see that on Twitter, you can see it online,
you can go to his site, and there's a lot
of different ways in which he uses the computer data
to get you interested. About this weekend in college football?
(05:05):
You have your best watch, right, Mike? Most interesting?
Speaker 3 (05:07):
What's like?
Speaker 2 (05:07):
What the most interesting watch? Based upon what Themuter computer
spits out, Yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
Doug, So every Friday update the watchability scores, and so
for this week, you know the top three games that
really stand out to me. In the primetime window, we
have Miami going on the road to Florida State. That
game's got a watchability score of nine point seven out
of ten on my watchability scale. And then two afternoon
window games. I know the ranked versus rank game that
(05:35):
everyone's excited about is Vanderbilt at Alabama. I have that
with a nine point one. Number three. I actually have
Texas at Florida with a nine point six as my
number two game of the week. So an ACC Sunshine
States showdown in primetime, and then a couple of SEC
matchups big brands in Texas and Florida as well as
ranked opponents here with Vanderbilt and Alabama. Obviously, the storylines
(05:59):
abound in all of these games. Miami, can they finally
make a collegetball playoff? Florida State? Could they bounce back
after what was a very disappointing loss last Friday? Night
in Charlottesville and conference play Florida the hot seat for
Billy Napier. Texas already has lost to Ohio State. They've
got to keep it going now to maintain that momentum
in SDC play and charge towards Atlanta. Vanderbilt a hot team,
(06:21):
number four offense in the entire country for me, Doug
right now, diego Pavia. You either love them or you
hate them, but they're winning right now. Alabama already has
a loss on the resume, plus that big win against
Georgia last week? Can they can they reset and come
back down from that? They know this Commodore team upset
them in Nashville a year ago.
Speaker 5 (06:39):
Lots of storylines were these top three games?
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Okay, so I guess here here's the question. Let's start
with Vanderbilt and Alabama. What's the like? I thought Alabama like,
I wasn't jumping off the ship when they went to
Florida State and lost. I was surprised by how they
led kind of kickoff to finish in Athens, but they
(07:03):
held on to win. The number is a big number,
but both are coming off of big wins. How's the
computer see that game going?
Speaker 5 (07:11):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (07:12):
I never jumped off the Alabama bandwagon either doing Certainly
it was a shock to the model to see Florida
State going because we didn't know what the Noles were
going to be this year. We were going to get
the team from two years ago that was you know,
snub from the CFP, or last year's team, you know,
arguably the most disappointing in the country and maybe in
program history coming in too and ten. We didn't know
what we were going to get. But Alabama, the model's
(07:33):
been pretty consistent on the tide and they're right now
the number three power rated team. For me, I've got
this with an eighty two percent win ex vectancy for Alabama.
I mentioned Vanderbilt has the number four offense in the country. Again,
Diego Pavia. What he's doing, what Clark Lee has got
going on at Vanderbilt is nothing to stick your nose
up at. But Alabama, when it comes down to it,
(07:55):
they know this team beat them a year ago. Yes,
they just beat Georgia. I expect them to get refocused
because the difference dug between last year and this year.
Coming off the big Georgia wins, Alabama already has that
loss on the resume. They know that if they lose
this one, their margin for air is very small. It's
not totally eliminated. Last year, nine to three was not
good enough for Alabama to get in. Why would we
(08:16):
think this year would be any different. They know they've
got to win this one to keep that margin of
air with what is a very difficult sate sec slate
still upcoming road trips to Missouri and Auburn, of course, Tennessee, LSU,
Oklahoma all coming to Tuscalusa. They cannot afford to drop
this game. Vanderbilt playing with a little bit of house money.
Speaker 5 (08:35):
Not a lot of people thought they'd be five to zero.
Speaker 4 (08:37):
The model likes Alabama to take care of business here.
Vanderbilt passed the victory, though, is just this offense outscoring
the Crimson tide. This game's in Tusa Lousa. I think
it's a big, big ass.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Okay, so help me out in this perspective. You mentioned
Miami and Florida State. Florida State has to bounce back.
I lost an absolute heartbreaker, right probably like the best
cat that ends up being an incomplete pass I've ever seen.
And Virginia holds on for a win. They're matching up
with the Miami team, who wasn't just Florida. The beat
(09:10):
South Florida the week, you know, a couple weeks ago
as well. So they're coming off with two big wins,
but very different going to Tallahassee. How's the computer see
that game going?
Speaker 4 (09:18):
Yeah, Miami's resume is incredibly impressive. I have them as
number two in my most Deserving rankings. You know, this
team knocked off Notre Dame, this team beat USF, this
team beat Florida, really quality wins here. Now this is
their first trip, though away from home, so it's their
first time having to go on the road this season.
Miami was off last week. I think that's worth noting
(09:39):
here from the scheduling dynamic perspective. Florida State, of course,
as we talked about it in your right, a crazy
way to lose the game, But Florida State shouldn't have
been in that position against the Virginia team that is
much better than they've been in recent years. But still
Florida State, you felt they should have played better. Last week,
The Model took no in downgraded the Noles five points.
That's a massive downgrade for one week far into the season.
(10:01):
The Model does like Miami sixty seven percent win expectanc
So basically, you play this game three times, Florida State's
going to be expected to win one of those three.
Speaker 5 (10:10):
Can this be the one?
Speaker 4 (10:11):
Because yeah, Florida State needs this one. Both of these
teams need to be ten and two or better to
be in the CFP at large discussion based on my
model and my schedule difficulty ratings. As things stands, and
if we look at Miami's remaining schedule.
Speaker 5 (10:24):
It is manageable.
Speaker 4 (10:25):
There is not a single game after this week that
currently has a projected spread of one possession. Florida State meanwhile,
still has three more one possession projected spread left on
the schedule, a road trip to Clemson in week eleven,
and then to close the year, two consecutive road trips
of Friday night.
Speaker 5 (10:42):
We've already seen Florida State lose on.
Speaker 4 (10:43):
A Friday night this year, a Friday Night at NC State,
and then you close the year in the Swamp against
the Florida team that who knows.
Speaker 5 (10:50):
What that team is looking like at that point of
the season.
Speaker 4 (10:52):
But Florida State has a more difficult path moving forward,
and they already have the loss.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
Florida State needs this one at home.
Speaker 4 (10:58):
But my numbers like the cane sixty seven percent, one expectancy.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Sixty seven percent, sixty seven percent. Okay, so let me
the other part about this week in college football is
there's a lot of massive home dogs. You know, produce
a big home dog to Illinois. Uh, Cincinnati's a home
dog to U to Iowa State. You look kind of
(11:23):
further and further down the slate and you see kind
of this this one continuing sort of narrative, Virginia coming
off of a gigantic win, going to Louisville, who's undefeated,
and now they're actually Louisville's actually a home favorite. Uh.
Despite that, does the computer see any of those home
dogs jumping up and getting a win?
Speaker 4 (11:42):
Yeah, I'm looking here, you know, kind of in my
Week six upset alert. That's where I like to look at.
I don't look at the A people. I look at
my k Ford most Deserving rankings. Once the CFP starts
putting out their numbers, I'll use that for the top
twenty five. But for now, I mean, Doug, there's you know, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven.
There's sevent teams and most deserving, top twenty five that
are off this week.
Speaker 5 (12:02):
If we look at the.
Speaker 4 (12:03):
Teams that are at home that have the greatest chance
to win this week, I mean, I'm looking Illinois's got
a sixteen percent loss expectancy. You mentioned that game Texas Tech,
nineteen percent chance to lose.
Speaker 5 (12:20):
They're going on the road to a.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
Houston team that I also have in the most Deserving
rankings right now at number twenty one. I don't think
the AP is giving them enough love at this point.
You know, Maryland is a team that is undefeated right now.
I have them number twenty four in the most Deserving rankings.
I got a sixty six percent loss expectancy for their
game against Washington as the Huskies are coming in off
of a loss at home to Ohio State snapped that
(12:43):
long win streak that the Huskies had there in Seattle.
So those are some you know, Louisville you mentioned that game,
thirty percent lose expectancy, so seventy percent chance to beat
the Who's So yeah. There. These are the weeks, though,
Doug where it appears calm, right.
Speaker 5 (12:58):
There's not.
Speaker 4 (12:58):
There's not a lot of games that you're looking at saying, man,
that's a triggy game or that's a trap game. These
are the kind of weeks that college football has proven
to us over the years are the weeks that produce
the most chaos. So it does appear on the surface like, hey,
we have a good idea of what we're expecting this week,
let's just be careful because these are the kind of
weeks that typically come up and give us a lot
(13:18):
of surprises.
Speaker 5 (13:19):
So you know, for me, I'm looking at Vanderbilt, Houston.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
Florida State, Maryland, Iowa State among the teams that I
have ranked right now in the top twenty five that
are most likely to drop a game here in week six.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Doug Gottlieb
Show weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on Fox
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Speaker 2 (13:41):
Okay, Notre Dame look dominant, Arkansas. They got boise To
State coming in at home. They finished undefeated. Do you
believe they get in the College fall playoffs?
Speaker 5 (13:50):
I do, Doug.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
And here's something that I've caught some heat four on
social media, some big surprise, right, people not.
Speaker 5 (13:56):
Liking what someone posts on social.
Speaker 4 (13:58):
Media, even though it's just objective numbers the Fighting Irish.
Right now they've started ZH to two, they bounce back here.
My model, the predicted model, has them number four in
the entire country. With regard to looking forward, who are
the strongest teams, like right now, Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama.
Speaker 5 (14:15):
Notre Dame.
Speaker 4 (14:16):
They're coming in right next at number four. Now, from
a resume standpoint, I don't have them ranked in the
top twenty five because based on what they've accomplished to date,
they don't deserve to be ranked. But if you're asking me,
you know, if they've finished ten and two, are they
going to get in I would lean towards yes. And
right now there's a forty five percent chance that Notre
Dame runs the table and finishes this thing ten and two.
(14:37):
Based on my numbers, there's not a single game remaining
that the Fighting Irish are a single possession favorite. They
are a favorite of more than one possession in every
single one of their remaining games. It looks like the
trickiest might be at Week eight Week eight home game
against usc That's the only game left on the schedule
that has less than an eighty six percent win expectanc
Before the Fighting Irish that's how we get to that
(14:58):
forty five percent chance to run the t. So Notre Dame,
they have an incredibly strong offense. It's number three in
the country. I think it's a defense that's been so
surprising to me and many others. This defense has been
so strong since Marcus Freeman has been in South Bend.
This year, just number forty four and falling.
Speaker 5 (15:13):
Yes, it was a good showing at Arkansas, but.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
Giving up thirty points to Purdue, giving up forty one
points to Texas A and m twenty seven to a
Miami team. Yes, these are good teams, but we've expected
more out of the Notre Dame defense. So yeah, I
think if Notre Dame gets there, they're ten and two,
they have that big brand, They're on a quote ten
game winning streak. I don't think that should matter, but
the committee certainly plays his value on it. I do
think ten and two will be enough for Notre Dame
at a minimum to be in the discussion and likely
(15:37):
enough to earn a bid into the CFP.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
Awesome stuff. Awesome stuff.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
Well, listen, it's a it's all. It's one of those
weeks where it doesn't look like a big week on
paper right, which usually leads to the big week. That's
the way I I don't know if I under like
we don't have a you know, a Tennessee game like
we had a couple of weeks ago. We don't have
a Georgia Alabama game. I was Florida Florida State. We do,
(16:04):
but we don't have Penn State Oregon like we did
last week. But we do have a lot of I
do want to ask one more since we talked Notre
Dame long term, can Penn State recover and get in
the college ball playoff?
Speaker 4 (16:16):
Absolutely, Penn State can recover and get back into the
costball playoff conversation here, Doug, Yeah, So if I pull
up the Penn State projection, excuse me on my website here,
So Penn State is still number nine in the model.
Yet they were downgraded two points for the performance at
home against Oregon, and yet their pass got more narrow
because of that loss, because you look at their non
(16:37):
commerce schedule in particular. I mean, it's really really bad,
and that's why Penn State is nowhere near right now
my top twenty five most deserving rankings. But they're still
a really good team, and I still have dog. Let's
say ten and two, right, ten and two is probably
the threshold that they need to reach to be in
that at large conversation. And there's still a path for
them to get to Indianapolis at the Big Pen Championship game.
(16:57):
Now it's a slim one now actually because Oregon holds
the head to head against them. But Penn State, you know,
if you look at their remaining.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
Schedule, I've got three games that have a you know.
Speaker 4 (17:07):
Either a one possession spread or they're an underdog of
more than one possession, and it's actually three consecutive games.
Week eight, they go on the road to Iowa. Sixty
six percent win expectancy for the Nidney Lions, so that's
a one possession spread they're often Week nine, then it's
a really tough trip to Columbus in week ten, twenty
one percent win expectancy there. And then in week eleven,
the Hoosiers come to Happy Valley and I've got a
(17:27):
fifty one percent win expectancy for Penn State. So you
look at that, you're gonna say, Okay, we have to
win all the other games on the schedule and then
we probably have to go two and one.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
Are better in those games. Right now, my model gives.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
That a twenty four percent chance of happening for Penn
State to reach at least ten ten wins. So right
now it's more likely than not that they don't reach ten.
But absolutely this team still has the talent. The defense
is really good. It's number five in the country. The
offense has been disappointing. There's no two ways about it.
You bring it back dro Roller, who many talk about.
You know, the former five star had some Heisman hype.
Actually that bring up the running back, the skill position players,
(18:00):
all sorts of toys. This Penn State team was geared
towards winning a national championship in twenty twenty five. They
were all in like Ohio State was all in a
year ago, and Pence that even brought in Jim Knowles
from Ohio State. All they have to do is follow
the Ohio State footprint.
Speaker 5 (18:13):
The Buck Guys lost two games in the.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
Regular season last year, one of which was two Oregons,
and Penn State has lost to Oregon. They might lose
to the Buck guys. All they have to do is
get in the dance. I think ten and two is enough.
Speaker 5 (18:22):
To do it.
Speaker 4 (18:23):
Once they do We've seen Ohio State last year get
hot at the right time, and Penn State certainly has
that feeling they.
Speaker 5 (18:29):
Can do it.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
Many will say they can't because they haven't. I'm more
in the camp of that they have it, but that
doesn't mean they can't. So we will see. But yes,
their pass is more narrow than it was a week ago.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
That is for certain awesome stuff. As always, that's that's
Kelly Ford K four Ratings Index. Check out on social
media Twitter, Instagram, course you can see his website as well.
He's the best there is. Kelly, thanks so much for
joining us.
Speaker 5 (18:52):
Thank you, Doug, I appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
All right, that's it for the end the Bonus Podcast.
I'm Doug Gottlieb. We'll check you tomorrow. This is in
the Bonus
Host
Doug Gottlieb
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