October 10, 2019 • 27 mins
Doug tells you why the Dodgers blowing game 5 after having a lead in the 8th is actually a rare win for all the analytics people. He also thinks we will never see a dynasty in sports like what we've seen from the Patriots. Plus, Super Bowl Champion TE Ben Watson joins the show to talk about his time in New England and if he still plans on playing in the NFL.
Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to the best of the Doug Gottlip
Show podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weekday
from three to six pm Eastern Time that's twelve to
three Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. Find your local station
for The Doug Gottlip Show at Fox Sports Radio dot com,
or stream us live every day on the I Heart
Radio app by searching fs R. This is the best
(00:22):
of the Doug Gotlip Show on Fox Sports Radio. Boom,
What Off America Doug Gottlieb Show, Fox Sports Radio. Mm hmmmmm.
The Doug Gotlip Show is brought to you by Discover Card.
We treat you like you to treat you. Hi, Baseball,
(00:49):
I love you, I love you. I love you, I
really do. And um, I told you earlier this week
that I don't hate to say I told you so.
Nobody really hates to say I told you so. Right
on the Browns. Hiring an unproven coach to coach a
(01:13):
team full of personalities, an undersized, marginally athletic by NFL
Quarterback standards quarterback in a franchise that has no culture
of winning. Hiring completely unproven former running backs coach to
be your head coach in a year where you have
such huge expectations having this type of slow, disappointing, dysfunctional start.
(01:35):
I don't hate to say it, I told you so,
but you can't. You can't do the I told you so.
He can't do the right, he can't do the who
told you this guy? Unless you want to do this.
Sometimes we're wrong. And last year I told you how
(01:59):
many times during the playoffs it was a bad night
for analytics. Well, the two thumbs pointed in this way,
I can tell you that I have been wrong. That analytics,
while not the soul answer to every one of our problems,
do in fact give us percentage chances of things playing out.
(02:23):
They give us a great statistical baseline to begin any
sort of decision. And last night loss the Dodgers to
the rest of the world, the by anyone's estimation, best
team in Major League Baseball, the team who had been
to the last two World Series. They were eliminated at
(02:46):
home at Chevez Ravine by the Washington Nationals, a team
that has traditionally and again there they have been around
long enough to be a tradition, but traditionally underachieved in
the playoffs. Now we can sit here and argue whether
or not be a seven game series. But the fact
is you had a three one lead at home entering
(03:09):
the eighth inning in your park. You had more comeback
wins than anybody in baseball. You played in the last
two World Series. So it's not like your players, your pitchers,
your closer hasn't pitched in high leveage situations in the past.
(03:29):
You get out of the seventh inning with a Clayton
Kershaw strikeout on just four pitches, and Kershaw gives up
back to back home runs on just two pitches, on
just two pitches, one to one, which felt like a
good pitch out of the strike zone. But it was
(03:51):
that the shoetops of a guy who's having a great
year for the Nationals. And the other one it was
one Soto who it was lefty lefty matchup. But man,
that was a breaking ball that did not break. And
that's a ball that has not landed yet. What what's
the line from the movie any ball that travels that
(04:12):
far and he's a stewardess on it. Holy hell, he
hit that one a mile. You go back and watch
and we'll tweet out Juan Solo hitting that. Oh oh,
at first that that slider that did not move from
Clayton Kershaw and I showed it to my son. That
is how you hit a baseball. But last night was
(04:33):
a win for analytics and a loss for all of
those go by feel, go by history of a guy,
go by name. You got the numbers right in front
of you. Bro Here's Dave Roberts for now, manager of
the Dodgers, on what happened with Kershawn relief last night.
(04:56):
You know, probably the best picture of our generation, and
for him to make himself available tonight and got us
out of a big spot right there, and um, you know,
it just didn't work out. You know, there's always gonna
be second guessing when things don't work out, but you know,
I'll take my chances any day on Clayton and um,
it just didn't work out right there. It's not about analytics,
(05:17):
it's about he's one of the best pictures in the game.
And for him to go out there and throw four
pitches and to go back out there and get two hitters, Um,
I felt really good about that. So you know, it's
more of I don't think it was an analytic question,
you know, it's it's a guy that I believe and
I trust, and um it didn't work out. Um, he's
(05:41):
not one of the best pictures in baseball anymore. He's
your third best starter. He's a starter, not a reliever.
That's not what he does. And you're going by what
he's done over the past ten years, not what he's
done in these situations in the pastor these situations this year.
(06:03):
And oh yeah, by the way, making yourself available is great.
Clayton Kershaw has been great, is a great teammate. He's
actually better in the postseason than people will give him credit.
He hasn't bet a He's had some moments where he
shown the ability to nut up and be incredibly clutch.
But Dave Roberts not admitting it was a mistake. Come on,
(06:26):
here's Dave Martinez. He's still a great picture and very competitive.
Has Velo isn't what it used to be, but he
knows that a pitch and that's what that's why he's
so successful, not what he used to be. The opposing
managers like hey, Vlo is not what it used to be.
That's the difference. What's the difference in a slider at
ninety two is opposed to at eighty nine? There you
(06:48):
go at ninety two, its saws off your bat? Are
you swinging? You miss at eighty nine, it ends up
in the parking lot. They always say sports is the
game of inches miles an hour. It's just it's that much.
It's that much difference, Like there's a reason that people
are like, why are you starting him in game two?
He's not your second best starter? Whu is? And you
(07:13):
had this his numbers, Adam col Eric against one. Soto
Soda was over three with two strikeouts in games one
through three. Couldn't hit the guy, couldn't see it, but
they left kershy it after he gave him a home run.
Then you have Joe Kelly and who gets you out
(07:34):
of that inning? And you're like, all right, Joe Kelly,
who has had a very, very shaky year. Then they
go to the ninth and you're like, yeah, let's let
Joe Kelly load the basis, and then Joe Kelly throws
a meatball to Howie Kendrick. Another one that was straightaway center.
Holy crap, how he got all of that one And
(07:56):
they never even had a mound visit. You put it,
you load the bases, but nobody out in the top
of the ninth inning in a tie game, and you
don't even go out there and go like all right, man, no, no,
all right, my nuts are in my neck right now,
(08:18):
help get somebody up or no, no, I got this,
just needed her breath, Like Dave Roberts didn't move? Do
I do I move? Do I do something? Do I?
And I don't know if analytics tell you to not
get up out of the dugout? But hell, I think
(08:40):
he was just in shock. But the idea, the idea
that Dave Roberts at this moment, it's not about analytics.
We know, Dave, but your team is completely built on analytics.
The reason you had guy is platooning last year was analytics.
(09:02):
The high the reason they went and hired a guy
from Tampa to be your general managers because they used
analytics to save money. You just do it on a
bigger scale there and now on the biggest stage, you're
gonna go like, yeah, I know this analytics to say
I should bring a choleric in, I'm just gonna go
with my gut. You know, I may have lost back
to back in the World Series, Kurt, and I know that.
(09:22):
I know that. Kershaw, you know it wasn't great coming
out of the pen, and even the World Series, but
damn it, he's a great picture. He'll figure it out. No,
nojan Solo mon Sodo hit the ball so hard. I
thought he might have hurt the bat, like the poor
bat like man. That was too hard. And and Joe
(09:43):
Kelly's ninth inning started with a walk. The the game changing, season, ending, series,
deciding rally always not sometimes always starts with a walk,
always ending all he started with a walk. It's like,
(10:03):
it's like every breakup starts with someone saying we need
to talk, right, not good. Every every disgusting, disrespectful thing
that somebody says, all in front of the crowd always
starts with the hey, no disrespect something disrespectful is coming afterwards, right,
(10:26):
And every every not some not kind of not maybe
every extra innings, every ninth inning, every comeback choke job
you have ever seen in Major League Baseball starts with
you know, you walk the opening hitter, right, and Dave
(10:50):
Robbers didn't move. Maybe he was like the rest of that,
he just walked the oblem hitter. Why. Maybe it was like,
why do I have Joe Kelly in there? Because he
went with feel instead of all of the data that
idiots like me have said, like, oh the data. Look listen,
(11:12):
the data is why they put on the shift. And
the shift really works. That's why they keep putting on
the shift. And guys fight against the data like, nah,
that doesn't work. Yes, it does, that's why they do it.
And then you see like a screaming line drive hit
the short right center and there's the second basement sitting there.
They're going, Yep, that's what it said in the book.
That's why computers are smarter than us. They just I
(11:35):
hate to say this, No, I don't the computers are
smarter than us. Yeah, we created computers, but they can.
Their ability to have to to formulate mathematical equations and
solve them in short order are things that human beings
can't do, right, They just can't. Predictive analysis gives you
(11:59):
percent chances of something coming true or becoming false. And
the predictive analysis told us what the right moves to do.
And Dave roberts goes, nah, I'm gonna go with my
gut because I'm a baseball guy and they are home today.
And though I like Dave Robertson thinks he's think he's
(12:20):
a mensch and he's a pretty good skipper. That was
a really, really, really bad two innings and I'm not
even a huge analytics guy. They have a place, you
know what That place is the eighth and ninth inning
of of a of a series. I mean, all the
(12:43):
rest of these guys they keep going out like why
they keep going out there? And I get it. You know,
if you keep if it becomes a turnstile, it's like surgery.
You know, every time you go in you run the
risk of infection or making things worse. It's the same
thing with the bullpen, all right, you go by the numbers,
and some guys the gout. Sometimes the guy just doesn't
have it that night. I get it doesn't live up
(13:03):
to the numbers, but it's not like Kershaw has been
great out of the pen in the past. It's not
like you didn't have numbers or didn't have an answer
to the equation. Col Eric was there for one reason
and one reason only, and he's out there going like, oh,
never mind, no yo. Maybe cleric say not, they're going
(13:27):
to I don't have to say I told you so.
But that wouldn't have happened to me. Damn one, Soto
got into that baseball and we never lead with baseball.
But watching that train wreck happened, I didn't really feel
bad for Dodger fans because they're a holes anyway, right,
they just are. They're so good, and their uniforms just
so clean, They're stadium so nice, and they've been a
(13:49):
two straight World Series like we underachieved. Like did you
went to the World Series twice in a row? Do
you have all these great players in great history and
you had been Scully? Yeah, we like Angel, but we
don't like you guys anyway. Like good, you can have
a little of despair. But man, that hurts baseball because
this is it's becoming like like Kobe and Lebron. We're
(14:11):
supposed to have Kobe and Lebron in the NBA Finals.
We're supposed to have the Dodgers and the Yankees. Just
once since Reggie Jackson hit three out in the game,
could I see Dodgers Yankees? And now we don't? Why
because Dave Roberts he'said gold with his gut. Guy, you know,
David Roberts reminds you my daughter. My daughter is thirteen
(14:31):
years old. She failed her most recent math test. It
was an open book test, open open notes test. Excuse me?
So the teacher emails me and says, just so you know,
Grace did poorly on her test, but she tried to
do it with no notes. Psychotical, Grace, what are you doing?
Like then, you don't have the notes? I have the notes.
(14:53):
I didn't bring them. Why I don't need them? I
got it all up here? Apparently not um one apparently not. Secondly,
when a teacher says open note, they want you to
They want one for you to pay attention in class,
so you take down notes, and two they want you
to get an are like gifting you and a And
you're like, now I'd rather get to see and do
(15:14):
it my way. Well, congratulations, Now you gotta retake the
test is still the best you can get as a see.
But you proved your point. You can do the test
without notes. Dave Roberts. Dave Roberts is uh non anti
VAXX guy? All right? Can you survive without the smallpox vaccine?
You can't. Most people will not contract smallpox. But there's
(15:37):
that chance. Clayton Kershaw, can he get lefties out? Sure?
Unless he doesn't be sure to catch the live edition
of The Doug gott Leap Show weekdays at three p m.
Easter noon Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio. Ah app when I watched tonight, and my
big takeaway from watching the Giants and the Patriots is
(16:01):
We're never gonna have this kind of dynasty in the NFL. Ever, Again,
do you understand how rare what we're watching is? Who's
old enough to remember Haley's comment? It only comes around
every eighty one years? Is that right? Buyer looked that
thing up for me? That's that. That's a buyer knows
this stat off the top of his head. I'm sure
(16:22):
like they know it's eighty three years. Eighty three buyer
knows everything. Really kind of remarkable, right, seventy six years.
So either you're old enough you're not. But like Tom
Brady was the sixth round pick, obviously we're seeing other
undrafted quarterbacks have success. But you even go back before that,
(16:44):
Bill Belichick inherited a franchise that had been resurrected by
Bill Parcels, so it had been well built, right, and
then there was Pete Carroll and you end up getting Belichick.
Now you'll probably be able to get another coach who
has failed elsewhere. But do you get one from the
(17:05):
Parcels tree that has the autonomy that Belichick has been given?
This is a really big thing. It's not just that
he was given autonomy, it's that, for the most part,
throughout the success, the owner hasn't gotten involved. So you
(17:27):
have something that you have a team that's built by Parcels.
You have a franchise that's in a division that's completely
and utterly dysfunctional for twenty years. You get one of
the greatest quarterbacks of all time, first on the cheap
because you get him in the sixth round, and then
(17:49):
on the cheap during the height of his superstardom because
he's married to the most popular supermodel in the history
of the profession. Could you get another quarterback who's a
Hall of Famer in the sixth round? Sure? Could you
get another impactful head coach like a Bill Belichick that's
on his second go round so he knows the mistakes
(18:09):
of his past? Sure? Could you get a team in
a bad division? Sure, I'll give it to you. Probably not,
but okay, sure, could you get one that's built by
Bill Parcels. Maybe one of his you know, I mean
Sean Payton in in New Orleans, of course, is that
(18:30):
there there are other disciples and they could be well
constructed in a division that's bad for twenty years with
a quarterback will consistently take less money than he than
going right than he should like if we stacked together
any one of those things happening, you'd have a small
percented chance of them happening again, all of them together.
(18:52):
And you're talking one in ten million, So, which, by
the way, is like a scientific fact. You guys, remember
that from the o j trial, Like what they convinced,
what Robert Kardashian convinced the jury was one in twenty
million actually meant there's a chance when the truth is
the way that science works, one million means there's actually
(19:13):
no chance. They just have to throw out the one
in one. So there's a one in ten one and
twenty million that all of these things could come together.
That Tom Brady would never leave, that Bill Belichick would
never leave, that an owner would almost never intervene the division.
(19:34):
Would this be this down that was well constructed, that
their style of football, that the NFL would actually blend
more to their style football. Remember the Patriots, one of
the first teams to operate on third down throwing the football,
whereas now it's become kind of the normal, like they
were always ahead of the curve. The likelihood of any
of this stuff happening again is small and and I
(19:58):
think it's infantestimo in turn ms of it ever happening again,
the likelihood is we will never see another impactful sitcom
for twenty somethings and thirty somethings like Friends plus like
the idea of one show per week, and you're gonna wait,
it's like now we binge watch everything said Thrones. I guess,
(20:24):
but you know there's nothing graphic on the show that incurse.
Like all of these things never happen again, same as
with the Patriots. Be sure to catch the live edition
of The Doug Gottlieb Show weekdays at three pm Easter
noon Pacific. Matt money Smith is part of Petro Send Money.
That's it's called PMS Petros and Money Show every afternoon
(20:46):
on a m five seventy and they've been doing it
for fifteen years or so now. And uh, look, look
the Lakers. It's still a Laker town. But the Dodgers
have been so good that you could say, it's half Lakers,
half Dgers, and they're trying to figure out where USC
football and the Rams and Chargers fit in. Of course
Money is also to play by play voice of the Chargers.
(21:08):
But but it was expected the Dodgers were going at
least back to the NLCS let alone in the World
Series and and really probably expected to win it. Money like,
I want to get into Dave Roberts decisions last night,
but they did lose two games previously to put themselves
in that position. What went so wrong for the Dodgers? Well,
(21:29):
bat matth jub I think number one, right, Uh, postseason
tends to be about starting pitching and strength of bullpen,
and you know the Nationals had at least one half
of that equation in those two wins, and that Strassburg
and Max Scherzerer, how pitching Clayton Kershawn Rich Hill respectively. Um,
and I think you know, going into those two games,
(21:50):
based on kind of Kershaw's past to postseason performance and
as dominant as Strassburg had been in his postseason appearances,
that would make sense on paper. And you're like, yeah, okay,
so you play a hundred sixty two and at the
end of them, you have a chance because you have
one six games to play Game five on your field,
(22:10):
with your crowd, that electric atmosphere that can maybe help
carry you. And I thought they did all of that.
So for me, Um, I know you mentioned we're going
to get into it, but I do think you know this,
this came down to UM. Two very good teams with
the best starting pitching in in all the National League
going at it, and the Dodgers had that slide advantage
(22:30):
with the home field and their best going up against
the Nationals best. UM, so I thought it was set
up for them to win, and I think it was,
you know, with six outs to go and it it
finally got away from him. Alright, So Kershaw gets Hi
out of the seventh? Did you agree with him starting
the eighth? Oh? Absolutely not. And there was nobody, you know,
whether it was in a text chat group I was
(22:51):
with or on Twitter timeline, nobody, no one, not not
baseball people that have been around the game forever, uh,
not just average fans. Not one person that I read
or was communicating with thought that was the right idea
that I mean, it was, And pretty much the overwhelming
opinion was, Hey, Eaton is not Rendon or Sodo you can.
(23:14):
I'm okay with you bringing kershot maybe in a high
leverage situation, lean on that experience to get out um
an average to an above average hitter. Uh, I do
not want that guy on the mound against Rendon and Soto,
two of the absolute best hitters in all of baseball.
Anthony Rendon hit and and I I don't know if
he's a low ball pitcher. That one wasn't really a strike, right,
(23:39):
But then to leave him in and he's I get it,
lefty lefty matchup, and he throws one pitch to Soda
when you got Cleric out there who had gotten him
out three times, like what, well, you know, and I
would just go back to the Rendon. Yeah he got
he got a low ball to hit, but you know,
look there's not as much action, there's not a much heat,
(24:00):
you know, so he could hit that. You know, if
that's Kenta Maeda, who was their absolute best player out
of the bullpen against right handers, I feel better about it.
I think every fan would feel better about if he
hit that page off Kenta Mada and you knew he
offered it up. You're like, hey, look that's their best
right against our best right. You give that your tip
of the cap to Rendon, same thing. Then you bring
(24:21):
in Coleric and it's your best lefty versus their best lefty.
And if Soto gets them tip of the cap, that's
all you want. You just want the percentages. You know.
It kind of just not not. I'm not saying this
because you're a basketball guy, Doug, but you know, like
my whole issue with hero ball is it's not the
highest percentage shot. I want the highest percentage shot. That's that.
(24:44):
And and this is the thing. All of us can
come out as radio hosts or you know, ex Jox
whatever and say the use of analytics is overrated. Okay,
but Dave Roberts baces said to analytics, and it bit
him in the ass last night. Yeah. I mean what
I you know, not not do call out my own
Twitter handle or anything, but I don't tweet a lot.
And as I was going through Twitter and I saw
(25:05):
something Andy McCullough posted, who's a great baseball writer, was
at the l A Times for a while and now
works for The Athletic. He posted when Kershaw came out.
It just goes to show you how little faith Dave
has in Kenley and Kelly, and I, you know, retweeted
with comment, I said, absolutely wrong. This is an emotional decision,
and Dave Roberts thinks it's a fairy tale where he
(25:27):
gets to have a happy ending for his guy. It's not.
It's statistics and it's eyeballs, and there are no stats
that supported him bringing Kershaw in. And not a single
scouts eyeball would say, hey, you have your choice of
anyone not named Walker Bueller to face Randon and Soto.
Not a single one would choose Kershaw. Not one, I mean,
(25:48):
not not one. What what what about leaving Kelly in? Well, again,
I don't know what you're thinking. He's a one inning kitcher.
He's a guy that goes out, he reaches back and
he throws his hard he can boats are one inning guy.
That's not you know, a finesse ross stripling, someone who's
used to being stretched out. Kelly is a one inning
(26:08):
guy and he had a masterful inning, and Tentamida had
a masterfullinning. You could argue bring Kenta back out, you
know kind of thing that like that that's something you
could have done. So like that's that's what I don't understand.
It was just so against what everything signaled it should
have been. And it's not just analytics. I know people
(26:29):
don't like analytics. The human element and sometimes you gotta
go with your gut. But your gut tells you over
the course of the season, Hey, Joe Kelly is a
one inning guy. Your gut tells you that my Ada
is your best right hander against right He's been that
way the whole series. Same as you said with Choleric
against Soto. He made him look like a fool multiple
times out there. So it's very odd, you know that
those were the decisions that were made last the last thing.
(26:51):
We gotta run like the Dave Robertson is back next year.
I think very likely. Um, they just signed him to
an extension, you know, and helped guide them to their
greatest regular season ever. The moment got the best of them.
You know what happens to everybody. You get emotional, you
have relationships, you have to try to distance yourself. But
we're not robots, you know, We're human beings with emotions
(27:12):
and relationships and connections. And I think he really wanted
that one for Clayton, and you know, that decision got
the best of them. All right, we still got to
talk about Clayton, but we'll do it on our show.
I know you'll do it on your show. Matt Money
spent a M five seventy in the Voice of the
l A Chargers. Money, thanks so much anytime, Doug, thanks man.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
(27:32):
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app
search f s R to listen live.
Thanks for listening to the best of the Doug Gottlip
Show podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weekday
from three to six pm Eastern Time that's twelve to
three Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. Find your local station
for The Doug Gottlip Show at Fox Sports Radio dot com,
or stream us live every day on the I Heart
Radio app by searching fs R. This is the best
(00:22):
of the Doug Gotlip Show on Fox Sports Radio. Boom,
What Off America Doug Gottlieb Show, Fox Sports Radio. Mm hmmmmm.
The Doug Gotlip Show is brought to you by Discover Card.
We treat you like you to treat you. Hi, Baseball,
(00:49):
I love you, I love you. I love you, I
really do. And um, I told you earlier this week
that I don't hate to say I told you so.
Nobody really hates to say I told you so. Right
on the Browns. Hiring an unproven coach to coach a
(01:13):
team full of personalities, an undersized, marginally athletic by NFL
Quarterback standards quarterback in a franchise that has no culture
of winning. Hiring completely unproven former running backs coach to
be your head coach in a year where you have
such huge expectations having this type of slow, disappointing, dysfunctional start.
(01:35):
I don't hate to say it, I told you so,
but you can't. You can't do the I told you so.
He can't do the right, he can't do the who
told you this guy? Unless you want to do this.
Sometimes we're wrong. And last year I told you how
(01:59):
many times during the playoffs it was a bad night
for analytics. Well, the two thumbs pointed in this way,
I can tell you that I have been wrong. That analytics,
while not the soul answer to every one of our problems,
do in fact give us percentage chances of things playing out.
(02:23):
They give us a great statistical baseline to begin any
sort of decision. And last night loss the Dodgers to
the rest of the world, the by anyone's estimation, best
team in Major League Baseball, the team who had been
to the last two World Series. They were eliminated at
(02:46):
home at Chevez Ravine by the Washington Nationals, a team
that has traditionally and again there they have been around
long enough to be a tradition, but traditionally underachieved in
the playoffs. Now we can sit here and argue whether
or not be a seven game series. But the fact
is you had a three one lead at home entering
(03:09):
the eighth inning in your park. You had more comeback
wins than anybody in baseball. You played in the last
two World Series. So it's not like your players, your pitchers,
your closer hasn't pitched in high leveage situations in the past.
(03:29):
You get out of the seventh inning with a Clayton
Kershaw strikeout on just four pitches, and Kershaw gives up
back to back home runs on just two pitches, on
just two pitches, one to one, which felt like a
good pitch out of the strike zone. But it was
(03:51):
that the shoetops of a guy who's having a great
year for the Nationals. And the other one it was
one Soto who it was lefty lefty matchup. But man,
that was a breaking ball that did not break. And
that's a ball that has not landed yet. What what's
the line from the movie any ball that travels that
(04:12):
far and he's a stewardess on it. Holy hell, he
hit that one a mile. You go back and watch
and we'll tweet out Juan Solo hitting that. Oh oh,
at first that that slider that did not move from
Clayton Kershaw and I showed it to my son. That
is how you hit a baseball. But last night was
(04:33):
a win for analytics and a loss for all of
those go by feel, go by history of a guy,
go by name. You got the numbers right in front
of you. Bro Here's Dave Roberts for now, manager of
the Dodgers, on what happened with Kershawn relief last night.
(04:56):
You know, probably the best picture of our generation, and
for him to make himself available tonight and got us
out of a big spot right there, and um, you know,
it just didn't work out. You know, there's always gonna
be second guessing when things don't work out, but you know,
I'll take my chances any day on Clayton and um,
it just didn't work out right there. It's not about analytics,
(05:17):
it's about he's one of the best pictures in the game.
And for him to go out there and throw four
pitches and to go back out there and get two hitters, Um,
I felt really good about that. So you know, it's
more of I don't think it was an analytic question,
you know, it's it's a guy that I believe and
I trust, and um it didn't work out. Um, he's
(05:41):
not one of the best pictures in baseball anymore. He's
your third best starter. He's a starter, not a reliever.
That's not what he does. And you're going by what
he's done over the past ten years, not what he's
done in these situations in the pastor these situations this year.
(06:03):
And oh yeah, by the way, making yourself available is great.
Clayton Kershaw has been great, is a great teammate. He's
actually better in the postseason than people will give him credit.
He hasn't bet a He's had some moments where he
shown the ability to nut up and be incredibly clutch.
But Dave Roberts not admitting it was a mistake. Come on,
(06:26):
here's Dave Martinez. He's still a great picture and very competitive.
Has Velo isn't what it used to be, but he
knows that a pitch and that's what that's why he's
so successful, not what he used to be. The opposing
managers like hey, Vlo is not what it used to be.
That's the difference. What's the difference in a slider at
ninety two is opposed to at eighty nine? There you
(06:48):
go at ninety two, its saws off your bat? Are
you swinging? You miss at eighty nine, it ends up
in the parking lot. They always say sports is the
game of inches miles an hour. It's just it's that much.
It's that much difference, Like there's a reason that people
are like, why are you starting him in game two?
He's not your second best starter? Whu is? And you
(07:13):
had this his numbers, Adam col Eric against one. Soto
Soda was over three with two strikeouts in games one
through three. Couldn't hit the guy, couldn't see it, but
they left kershy it after he gave him a home run.
Then you have Joe Kelly and who gets you out
(07:34):
of that inning? And you're like, all right, Joe Kelly,
who has had a very, very shaky year. Then they
go to the ninth and you're like, yeah, let's let
Joe Kelly load the basis, and then Joe Kelly throws
a meatball to Howie Kendrick. Another one that was straightaway center.
Holy crap, how he got all of that one And
(07:56):
they never even had a mound visit. You put it,
you load the bases, but nobody out in the top
of the ninth inning in a tie game, and you
don't even go out there and go like all right, man, no, no,
all right, my nuts are in my neck right now,
(08:18):
help get somebody up or no, no, I got this,
just needed her breath, Like Dave Roberts didn't move? Do
I do I move? Do I do something? Do I?
And I don't know if analytics tell you to not
get up out of the dugout? But hell, I think
(08:40):
he was just in shock. But the idea, the idea
that Dave Roberts at this moment, it's not about analytics.
We know, Dave, but your team is completely built on analytics.
The reason you had guy is platooning last year was analytics.
(09:02):
The high the reason they went and hired a guy
from Tampa to be your general managers because they used
analytics to save money. You just do it on a
bigger scale there and now on the biggest stage, you're
gonna go like, yeah, I know this analytics to say
I should bring a choleric in, I'm just gonna go
with my gut. You know, I may have lost back
to back in the World Series, Kurt, and I know that.
(09:22):
I know that. Kershaw, you know it wasn't great coming
out of the pen, and even the World Series, but
damn it, he's a great picture. He'll figure it out. No,
nojan Solo mon Sodo hit the ball so hard. I
thought he might have hurt the bat, like the poor
bat like man. That was too hard. And and Joe
(09:43):
Kelly's ninth inning started with a walk. The the game changing, season, ending, series,
deciding rally always not sometimes always starts with a walk,
always ending all he started with a walk. It's like,
(10:03):
it's like every breakup starts with someone saying we need
to talk, right, not good. Every every disgusting, disrespectful thing
that somebody says, all in front of the crowd always
starts with the hey, no disrespect something disrespectful is coming afterwards, right,
(10:26):
And every every not some not kind of not maybe
every extra innings, every ninth inning, every comeback choke job
you have ever seen in Major League Baseball starts with
you know, you walk the opening hitter, right, and Dave
(10:50):
Robbers didn't move. Maybe he was like the rest of that,
he just walked the oblem hitter. Why. Maybe it was like,
why do I have Joe Kelly in there? Because he
went with feel instead of all of the data that
idiots like me have said, like, oh the data. Look listen,
(11:12):
the data is why they put on the shift. And
the shift really works. That's why they keep putting on
the shift. And guys fight against the data like, nah,
that doesn't work. Yes, it does, that's why they do it.
And then you see like a screaming line drive hit
the short right center and there's the second basement sitting there.
They're going, Yep, that's what it said in the book.
That's why computers are smarter than us. They just I
(11:35):
hate to say this, No, I don't the computers are
smarter than us. Yeah, we created computers, but they can.
Their ability to have to to formulate mathematical equations and
solve them in short order are things that human beings
can't do, right, They just can't. Predictive analysis gives you
(11:59):
percent chances of something coming true or becoming false. And
the predictive analysis told us what the right moves to do.
And Dave roberts goes, nah, I'm gonna go with my
gut because I'm a baseball guy and they are home today.
And though I like Dave Robertson thinks he's think he's
(12:20):
a mensch and he's a pretty good skipper. That was
a really, really, really bad two innings and I'm not
even a huge analytics guy. They have a place, you
know what That place is the eighth and ninth inning
of of a of a series. I mean, all the
(12:43):
rest of these guys they keep going out like why
they keep going out there? And I get it. You know,
if you keep if it becomes a turnstile, it's like surgery.
You know, every time you go in you run the
risk of infection or making things worse. It's the same
thing with the bullpen, all right, you go by the numbers,
and some guys the gout. Sometimes the guy just doesn't
have it that night. I get it doesn't live up
(13:03):
to the numbers, but it's not like Kershaw has been
great out of the pen in the past. It's not
like you didn't have numbers or didn't have an answer
to the equation. Col Eric was there for one reason
and one reason only, and he's out there going like, oh,
never mind, no yo. Maybe cleric say not, they're going
(13:27):
to I don't have to say I told you so.
But that wouldn't have happened to me. Damn one, Soto
got into that baseball and we never lead with baseball.
But watching that train wreck happened, I didn't really feel
bad for Dodger fans because they're a holes anyway, right,
they just are. They're so good, and their uniforms just
so clean, They're stadium so nice, and they've been a
(13:49):
two straight World Series like we underachieved. Like did you
went to the World Series twice in a row? Do
you have all these great players in great history and
you had been Scully? Yeah, we like Angel, but we
don't like you guys anyway. Like good, you can have
a little of despair. But man, that hurts baseball because
this is it's becoming like like Kobe and Lebron. We're
(14:11):
supposed to have Kobe and Lebron in the NBA Finals.
We're supposed to have the Dodgers and the Yankees. Just
once since Reggie Jackson hit three out in the game,
could I see Dodgers Yankees? And now we don't? Why
because Dave Roberts he'said gold with his gut. Guy, you know,
David Roberts reminds you my daughter. My daughter is thirteen
(14:31):
years old. She failed her most recent math test. It
was an open book test, open open notes test. Excuse me?
So the teacher emails me and says, just so you know,
Grace did poorly on her test, but she tried to
do it with no notes. Psychotical, Grace, what are you doing?
Like then, you don't have the notes? I have the notes.
(14:53):
I didn't bring them. Why I don't need them? I
got it all up here? Apparently not um one apparently not. Secondly,
when a teacher says open note, they want you to
They want one for you to pay attention in class,
so you take down notes, and two they want you
to get an are like gifting you and a And
you're like, now I'd rather get to see and do
(15:14):
it my way. Well, congratulations, Now you gotta retake the
test is still the best you can get as a see.
But you proved your point. You can do the test
without notes. Dave Roberts. Dave Roberts is uh non anti
VAXX guy? All right? Can you survive without the smallpox vaccine?
You can't. Most people will not contract smallpox. But there's
(15:37):
that chance. Clayton Kershaw, can he get lefties out? Sure?
Unless he doesn't be sure to catch the live edition
of The Doug gott Leap Show weekdays at three p m.
Easter noon Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio. Ah app when I watched tonight, and my
big takeaway from watching the Giants and the Patriots is
(16:01):
We're never gonna have this kind of dynasty in the NFL. Ever, Again,
do you understand how rare what we're watching is? Who's
old enough to remember Haley's comment? It only comes around
every eighty one years? Is that right? Buyer looked that
thing up for me? That's that. That's a buyer knows
this stat off the top of his head. I'm sure
(16:22):
like they know it's eighty three years. Eighty three buyer
knows everything. Really kind of remarkable, right, seventy six years.
So either you're old enough you're not. But like Tom
Brady was the sixth round pick, obviously we're seeing other
undrafted quarterbacks have success. But you even go back before that,
(16:44):
Bill Belichick inherited a franchise that had been resurrected by
Bill Parcels, so it had been well built, right, and
then there was Pete Carroll and you end up getting Belichick.
Now you'll probably be able to get another coach who
has failed elsewhere. But do you get one from the
(17:05):
Parcels tree that has the autonomy that Belichick has been given?
This is a really big thing. It's not just that
he was given autonomy, it's that, for the most part,
throughout the success, the owner hasn't gotten involved. So you
(17:27):
have something that you have a team that's built by Parcels.
You have a franchise that's in a division that's completely
and utterly dysfunctional for twenty years. You get one of
the greatest quarterbacks of all time, first on the cheap
because you get him in the sixth round, and then
(17:49):
on the cheap during the height of his superstardom because
he's married to the most popular supermodel in the history
of the profession. Could you get another quarterback who's a
Hall of Famer in the sixth round? Sure? Could you
get another impactful head coach like a Bill Belichick that's
on his second go round so he knows the mistakes
(18:09):
of his past? Sure? Could you get a team in
a bad division? Sure, I'll give it to you. Probably not,
but okay, sure, could you get one that's built by
Bill Parcels. Maybe one of his you know, I mean
Sean Payton in in New Orleans, of course, is that
(18:30):
there there are other disciples and they could be well
constructed in a division that's bad for twenty years with
a quarterback will consistently take less money than he than
going right than he should like if we stacked together
any one of those things happening, you'd have a small
percented chance of them happening again, all of them together.
(18:52):
And you're talking one in ten million, So, which, by
the way, is like a scientific fact. You guys, remember
that from the o j trial, Like what they convinced,
what Robert Kardashian convinced the jury was one in twenty
million actually meant there's a chance when the truth is
the way that science works, one million means there's actually
(19:13):
no chance. They just have to throw out the one
in one. So there's a one in ten one and
twenty million that all of these things could come together.
That Tom Brady would never leave, that Bill Belichick would
never leave, that an owner would almost never intervene the division.
(19:34):
Would this be this down that was well constructed, that
their style of football, that the NFL would actually blend
more to their style football. Remember the Patriots, one of
the first teams to operate on third down throwing the football,
whereas now it's become kind of the normal, like they
were always ahead of the curve. The likelihood of any
of this stuff happening again is small and and I
(19:58):
think it's infantestimo in turn ms of it ever happening again,
the likelihood is we will never see another impactful sitcom
for twenty somethings and thirty somethings like Friends plus like
the idea of one show per week, and you're gonna wait,
it's like now we binge watch everything said Thrones. I guess,
(20:24):
but you know there's nothing graphic on the show that incurse.
Like all of these things never happen again, same as
with the Patriots. Be sure to catch the live edition
of The Doug Gottlieb Show weekdays at three pm Easter
noon Pacific. Matt money Smith is part of Petro Send Money.
That's it's called PMS Petros and Money Show every afternoon
(20:46):
on a m five seventy and they've been doing it
for fifteen years or so now. And uh, look, look
the Lakers. It's still a Laker town. But the Dodgers
have been so good that you could say, it's half Lakers,
half Dgers, and they're trying to figure out where USC
football and the Rams and Chargers fit in. Of course
Money is also to play by play voice of the Chargers.
(21:08):
But but it was expected the Dodgers were going at
least back to the NLCS let alone in the World
Series and and really probably expected to win it. Money like,
I want to get into Dave Roberts decisions last night,
but they did lose two games previously to put themselves
in that position. What went so wrong for the Dodgers? Well,
(21:29):
bat matth jub I think number one, right, Uh, postseason
tends to be about starting pitching and strength of bullpen,
and you know the Nationals had at least one half
of that equation in those two wins, and that Strassburg
and Max Scherzerer, how pitching Clayton Kershawn Rich Hill respectively. Um,
and I think you know, going into those two games,
(21:50):
based on kind of Kershaw's past to postseason performance and
as dominant as Strassburg had been in his postseason appearances,
that would make sense on paper. And you're like, yeah, okay,
so you play a hundred sixty two and at the
end of them, you have a chance because you have
one six games to play Game five on your field,
(22:10):
with your crowd, that electric atmosphere that can maybe help
carry you. And I thought they did all of that.
So for me, Um, I know you mentioned we're going
to get into it, but I do think you know this,
this came down to UM. Two very good teams with
the best starting pitching in in all the National League
going at it, and the Dodgers had that slide advantage
(22:30):
with the home field and their best going up against
the Nationals best. UM, so I thought it was set
up for them to win, and I think it was,
you know, with six outs to go and it it
finally got away from him. Alright, So Kershaw gets Hi
out of the seventh? Did you agree with him starting
the eighth? Oh? Absolutely not. And there was nobody, you know,
whether it was in a text chat group I was
(22:51):
with or on Twitter timeline, nobody, no one, not not
baseball people that have been around the game forever, uh,
not just average fans. Not one person that I read
or was communicating with thought that was the right idea
that I mean, it was, And pretty much the overwhelming
opinion was, Hey, Eaton is not Rendon or Sodo you can.
(23:14):
I'm okay with you bringing kershot maybe in a high
leverage situation, lean on that experience to get out um
an average to an above average hitter. Uh, I do
not want that guy on the mound against Rendon and Soto,
two of the absolute best hitters in all of baseball.
Anthony Rendon hit and and I I don't know if
he's a low ball pitcher. That one wasn't really a strike, right,
(23:39):
But then to leave him in and he's I get it,
lefty lefty matchup, and he throws one pitch to Soda
when you got Cleric out there who had gotten him
out three times, like what, well, you know, and I
would just go back to the Rendon. Yeah he got
he got a low ball to hit, but you know,
look there's not as much action, there's not a much heat,
(24:00):
you know, so he could hit that. You know, if
that's Kenta Maeda, who was their absolute best player out
of the bullpen against right handers, I feel better about it.
I think every fan would feel better about if he
hit that page off Kenta Mada and you knew he
offered it up. You're like, hey, look that's their best
right against our best right. You give that your tip
of the cap to Rendon, same thing. Then you bring
(24:21):
in Coleric and it's your best lefty versus their best lefty.
And if Soto gets them tip of the cap, that's
all you want. You just want the percentages. You know.
It kind of just not not. I'm not saying this
because you're a basketball guy, Doug, but you know, like
my whole issue with hero ball is it's not the
highest percentage shot. I want the highest percentage shot. That's that.
(24:44):
And and this is the thing. All of us can
come out as radio hosts or you know, ex Jox
whatever and say the use of analytics is overrated. Okay,
but Dave Roberts baces said to analytics, and it bit
him in the ass last night. Yeah. I mean what
I you know, not not do call out my own
Twitter handle or anything, but I don't tweet a lot.
And as I was going through Twitter and I saw
(25:05):
something Andy McCullough posted, who's a great baseball writer, was
at the l A Times for a while and now
works for The Athletic. He posted when Kershaw came out.
It just goes to show you how little faith Dave
has in Kenley and Kelly, and I, you know, retweeted
with comment, I said, absolutely wrong. This is an emotional decision,
and Dave Roberts thinks it's a fairy tale where he
(25:27):
gets to have a happy ending for his guy. It's not.
It's statistics and it's eyeballs, and there are no stats
that supported him bringing Kershaw in. And not a single
scouts eyeball would say, hey, you have your choice of
anyone not named Walker Bueller to face Randon and Soto.
Not a single one would choose Kershaw. Not one, I mean,
(25:48):
not not one. What what what about leaving Kelly in? Well, again,
I don't know what you're thinking. He's a one inning kitcher.
He's a guy that goes out, he reaches back and
he throws his hard he can boats are one inning guy.
That's not you know, a finesse ross stripling, someone who's
used to being stretched out. Kelly is a one inning
(26:08):
guy and he had a masterful inning, and Tentamida had
a masterfullinning. You could argue bring Kenta back out, you
know kind of thing that like that that's something you
could have done. So like that's that's what I don't understand.
It was just so against what everything signaled it should
have been. And it's not just analytics. I know people
(26:29):
don't like analytics. The human element and sometimes you gotta
go with your gut. But your gut tells you over
the course of the season, Hey, Joe Kelly is a
one inning guy. Your gut tells you that my Ada
is your best right hander against right He's been that
way the whole series. Same as you said with Choleric
against Soto. He made him look like a fool multiple
times out there. So it's very odd, you know that
those were the decisions that were made last the last thing.
(26:51):
We gotta run like the Dave Robertson is back next year.
I think very likely. Um, they just signed him to
an extension, you know, and helped guide them to their
greatest regular season ever. The moment got the best of them.
You know what happens to everybody. You get emotional, you
have relationships, you have to try to distance yourself. But
we're not robots, you know, We're human beings with emotions
(27:12):
and relationships and connections. And I think he really wanted
that one for Clayton, and you know, that decision got
the best of them. All right, we still got to
talk about Clayton, but we'll do it on our show.
I know you'll do it on your show. Matt Money
spent a M five seventy in the Voice of the
l A Chargers. Money, thanks so much anytime, Doug, thanks man.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
(27:32):
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app
search f s R to listen live.
Host
Doug Gottlieb
Popular Podcasts
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.