Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Tonight, why stock traders are feeling pretty good about where
the market is and where it's headed, and should that
make you a little wary of where it's going? You're
listening to simply when you presented my all Worth Financial
I mean me Wagner along with Steve Sprovac. Steve Ruby
is going to join us in a second half of
our show.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
I'm not saying that these these stock traders, you know,
I don't know what they're talking about. I definitely think
they do sometimes. But I got to tell you, like,
that's great for them on Wall Street, but for me
on Main Street, what they think doesn't really matter to me.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
I'm going to invest my money. I'm going to invest
it long term, and I'm just gonna wait till I
get closer to retirement.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
You know, Well, good for you. But most people, and
this just I don't get this. Most people don't realize
that the media, especially the financial media, and you know I,
I think we're a little bit different than me.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
I don't count myself under that umbella.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
No, it's always everybody else, But no, the media has
a totally different agenda when it comes to investments. They
don't care about giving you the best advice, the best
stock pick. The media cares that you're watching them because
that's what the advertisers pay for. So whether they're giving
(01:24):
good or bad advice, as long as they can get
you to keep paying attention and keep watching, they win.
And that explains Jim Kramer to some degree. You know,
it's whatever, I don't even want to go there. But
that's not long term investing as far as I'm concerned.
That's that's hype, that that's craziness. And and you know,
you don't want to be an alarmist. If you're an investor.
(01:45):
You want to stay the course. You want to just
get rich slowly, like we've talked about for decades, and
the media doesn't generally play into that. They want section
right now.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
Yeah, yeah, And it's not just Jim Kramer, right, it's
not just like the financial cable news.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
By choose your financial website and they're looking for clickbait.
They're looking for things that you're.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Going to click on, and if you are alarmed and
worried or there seems to be something revelationary about how
you should invest, you're going to click on that, right,
That's what they're counting on and so.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
And I've always liked market Watch.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
I gotta tell you, every day it's usually one of
the first websites that I turned to, right, I check
the markets, check futures, and then just kind of glance
at where you know, what people are talking about for
that day. I also know, though, to take those headlines
with a grain of salt. Well, here's one that we
saw recently, right, just the past few days on market Watch.
Here's the headline, most traders expect the stock market to
(02:42):
rise in the near future, survey finds. So I'm wondering, Steve.
You know, if someone reads this, it's like, oh, well,
if that's what they expect, what should I do because
of that?
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Yeah, traders with an ego, I mean that's a I
mean basically what they're saying is, oh, yeah, we're bullish
and we've always been right, and this is why you
should listen to us. Yeah, of course they're gonna say that.
It's it's when the market is going up, they all say, see,
we told you so. When the market goes down, they say,
see I told you so. Whether they told you so
(03:17):
or not, you know, traders are in it for the
day to day changes, and that's what gets attention drawn
to them. You know, the fact that they're bullish doesn't
mean a thing to me. And yet most most people
that are listening or reading headlines like that, they're gonna say, hey,
that's fantastic. Here's the problem I have generally, and this
(03:38):
is straight out of Warren Buffett. I mean, as far
as I'm concerned, the most successful investor of all time,
when everybody's excited about the market, be very cautious because
there are no new buyers. All the buyers are in
at that point. And conversely, when everybody's fearful of the market,
when everybody says this is horrible, I wouldn't even think
(03:59):
about putting diamond. That's where the opportunity is, and that's
where you should be buying. It's basic contrary and advice,
but it works. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
I always think of you know, Ed Fink.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
I just love him so much, and you know, he's
always been my mentor, and when I first started in
this business, you know, he would always say during times
when things are good, Amy, here's the problem with people.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
They mistakable market for brains.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
You know, that's right, when you feel like you can't
go wrong in the markets.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
It's not because of what you've done.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
It's not because of the decisions you've made, or you're
necessarily your acid allocation. It's that the markets are doing well,
and then you start to think, oh, I'm I've got this.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
You know.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
It's almost like you feel like you know more than
you actually do, and then you start to move things
around as a result of it. Right, So, if you're
feeling pretty good and you're reading this headline and you know,
traders are saying markets are going to go up, maybe
your asset allocation that made sense was sixty forty, so
forty percent.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Bonds, and now it's like, well, maybe I should go
more into stocks. Maybe I should some individual stocks. You know,
what should I be doing?
Speaker 3 (05:03):
I want to tear this apart a little more. Most
traders say that they're bullsh Okay, that's like six out
of ten, you know, five out of ten would be oh,
they're split evenly. Six out of ten is most Yeah,
and you.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Know that's misleading headline, right yeah.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
I mean, if we're ten out of ten, that even
gets me more concerned, because there again, everybody's excited. We're
probably near the top of the market, and you know,
what they're talking about. The next three months will be strong. Also,
three months is not long term. I mean, when you're
an investor, you should be thinking about, Okay, how many
(05:38):
years until I'm expected to pass away? Okay? I always
use ninety five. I'm an optimist. Okay, so at sixty five,
I've got thirty more years I'm investing in, not what's
going to happen three months from now. That's called risk
tolerance and investing wisely and staying the course. In most cases,
(05:58):
that's not three month time frame stuff.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
You're listening to simply money presented by all Worth Financially
Mami Wagner along with Steve sprovac As, we do one
of my favorite things to do, and that is rip
apart the headlines, because I just think it's so easy
to come across these things and think, oh, as an investor,
there's something I should be doing. This article says this,
this headline does that, and this is where we're kind
of tearing it apart and saying, oh, they're saying most
traders and then the research says six and ten, which
(06:23):
means four and ten aren't feeling so bullish about the
market in the next few months.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
We don't know what's going to happen.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
We've got a chief investment officer, Andy Stout, who's honestly.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
One of the smartest people I've ever met.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
He has ten sort of leading economic indicators that he
looks at to say, do I think.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
A recession is coming?
Speaker 1 (06:41):
And you can only look out six and nine months
on these things anyway. But you know, I also want
to throw in a caveat on a lot of these
economic indicators, which is since the pandemic, our economy has
been a little and this is a very technical term, won'ty.
It just doesn't respond to things the way it has before.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
So if you're if.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
You are paying attention to something that in an economist
or someone who's writing these headlines is saying because of
certain economic data, pe I'd also say, take deep breath first.
You know, Yeah, it may not turn out the way
that it has in the past. We need a few
more years to figure these things out.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
But here again we're talking about short term trading and
a lot that's what the term trader is talking about,
short term trading, not investing, Yeah, exactly, And investing is
the long haul. I mean, if you're investing primarily in
the biggest US companies that exist, over time, the majority
(07:38):
of them are going to grow and become more profitable.
A share of stock represents ownership in that company. It
might be one gazillionth of a percent in your case,
but it still represents ownership. So if that company gets
bigger and more profitable, your little share ownership is going
to be worth more over time and the short term,
it's going to be crazy because people are trading on
(07:59):
short term events. It all comes out in the wash,
but in the short term it drives you nuts. Just
acknowledge that's the price of admission. And that brings me
to the next topic I want to talk about is well,
if everybody has equal access to information on how the
economy is doing, then it's an even playing field. That
didn't happen two weeks ago, did it.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Yeah, we've kind of had a big oops here when
it came to some economic data. This is a technical
glitch that prevented the government from sharing key payroll data.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
On time last week.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
Right, So you're thinking you're listening to this, You're thinking, whatever,
I don't care.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
It's not like I'm tuning in.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
It's just a glitch.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
Yeah, just a little glitch.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Certain people on Wall Street had that information ahead of
other people, so that in itself looks a little shady.
But you know, I think you have to think about
how how does this information kind of trickle down to
me if there's an issue in getting this data right,
And then I think it's just like those of us
on Main Street who are making yeah, yeah, how do
(08:59):
you figure out?
Speaker 3 (09:01):
Here's what happened. The Department of Labor, just like all
the various economic groups in the United States that are
part of the government reporting system, they come out with
preliminary numbers, and as they audit the figures and more
figures come in, they revise them, and usually they're slightly
higher or lower. It's not a big big deal. Well,
(09:21):
the Department of Labor came out and said, you know what,
we were off by about three hundred thousand jobs on
our projections. Not three hundred three hundred thousand. I mean,
this is a huge deal. And the glitch you're talking
about was it was due I think it was like
set either seven o'clock or eight o'clock in the morning,
and the report was delayed for some reason or other.
(09:41):
So a few traders called the Department of Labor directly
got to somebody at the Department of Labor and said, hey,
the numbers haven't come out. Do you know what they are?
And three of them got, oh, yeah, yeah, I've got
them right here, here's the numbers. So those three banks
were able to trade on the information that had not
(10:01):
been released yet. I saw trading places. You can make
a lot of money if you know the stuff ahead.
And that's not fair. And I haven't heard anything about
ramifications for these people getting these companies, these banks getting
these numbers ahead of everybody else.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
I didn't do anything wrong, right, they were just a
little scrappy they called it, And yeah, I mean they
asked and they were given it. Now going forward, but
the Vieerau of Labor Statistics is going to say, is
now saying, okay, we're not going to just release this
information in one source.
Speaker 2 (10:33):
We're going to find.
Speaker 1 (10:34):
Multiple ways to distribute this information, including social media.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
No, it's fixed again, right, no problem.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
They also say we also have a new policy which
says that anyone in our like in our building, any
of our employees that are handling this data can only
share numbers with other people.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Once senior staff signs off on it.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
You know, I just think this is one of those
things that's like, oh, how do we make sure this
doesn't happen again? But man, you know, for someone who
is you know, making decisions with investments by this information,
this is one reason why you don't do that.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
You know, well, you can't even trust the sources that
it's coming from.
Speaker 3 (11:14):
Sometimes it's not like I am a skeptic. I am right.
You know, they're saying, yeah, and we may have even
more revisions coming up. I got a funny feel and
those revisions are going to be released after November fourth.
That's just me, just me, that's just skeptic in me.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Interesting. Well, we'll see how that plays out coming up next.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
White people might be doing a better job of saving
for retirements than even saving for an emergency. You're listening
to Simply Money, you presented by all Worth Financial. Here
in fifty five KRC, the talk station. You're listening to
Simply Money, presented by all Worth Financial. I mean me
Wagner along.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
With Steve Sprovak.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
If you can't listen to our show every night, you
don't have to miss a thing. We have a daily
podcast for you. Just search simply money right there on
the iheartop or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Come me on at six forty three.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
A possible side effects of maxing out your floural one
K two early.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
There could be a bad part of this. We'll tell
you what that is.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
Okay to get to financial freedom, and I think that's
what most of us are thinking about when we're saving.
You need to be thinking about your current self but
also your future self, and apparently that's not so easy
for a lot of us.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
No Trans America, big insurance company. They released their annual
Retirement Outlook of the American Middle Class study. They've done
this for twenty four years, and it's kind of a
neat study, although I have a little issue with what
they called middle class. More than half of the respondents
had household income between fifty and two hundred thousand dollars.
I'm sorry, if you're making two hundred grand, I don't
(12:51):
think you're middle class anymore. You're doing pretty well. But
a couple things. Really I hate these surveys, not because
they're bad surveys, but because of what they tell us
about the savings habits of Americans. Seven and ten of
these people said they were confident that they're going to
be able to retire comfortably. Good for you, you feel good
(13:12):
about it. More than a fifth we're very confident. Almost
half somewhat common. So people are feeling pretty good about saving.
But here's the problem. The average respondent said they had
a median of eight thousand dollars in emergency savings. This
has always been our problem, Amy, I mean, we've talked
about this during COVID. People saved more, and you know,
(13:32):
we both said, yeah, but Americans are Americans. They'll get back.
Median means half saved more than eight thousand dollars. Half
have less than eight thousand dollars in the bank. And
that's a problem for every one of those people.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Speaking of not being a cynic, but actually being a cynic.
I'm going to tear this data apart a little bit
because I agree that most people don't have what you
need when it comes to emergency savings. But also, oh,
I think there's a lot more people behind on retirement
savings than are fessing up in this research.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
You know, all we know is these people are eighteen
or older. Well, okay, if.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
I'm twenty four years old, I'm probably feeling pretty confident
about my retirement. Not that I've got so much money saved,
but I've got forty something years before I even have to.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Think about it.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
You know, I can't even think about turning thirty, never
mind sixty five. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
Do the same research.
Speaker 1 (14:23):
Ask these same questions to people who are fifty and older,
and I'm going to bet you're going to get much
different responses because once you realize that you're kind of
breathing down the neck of retirement, all of a sudden,
it's like whoa wake up call.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
I'm all right, yeah, I had that about ten years
ago when it's right, wait, wait, wait a second, this
is no longer a concept. I've got ten years, and
it was that ten years from when I wanted to
retire at sixty five. I've got ten years. I better
get this together. And you think, because I'm an investment
advisor and do financial plans, I've got it together. I
knew exactly where I was, it just wasn't where I
(14:55):
wanted to be. So there's a big difference there. And
that's why if you don't know where you are, you
don't know what needs to be fixed. A quarter of
these people that were surveyed had no clue. They said
they weren't sure how much they had in savings. I'll
translate that to you. They don't have a dime in savings,
you know. And I'll bet you most of those had
(15:16):
credit card debt. And I'm sounding harsh, but at some point,
even at twenty one, you've got to say to yourself, Okay,
I've got to use these cards responsibly. I got to
have some money set aside, and I've got to put
money away for retirement. Because if you wait to do
most of those things ten years from retirement, you're going
(15:36):
to say, Wow, I don't I guess this is my ship.
I guess I'm going to have to sail it. And
it is what it is. And that's not a good place.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
To be listening to simply Money and presented by all
Worth Financial. I mean you, Wagner, along with Steve Sprovac,
as we talk about your current self versus your future self,
and the fact that there is some research out there
that shows many of you are much more confident about
what you've got for retirement than what you have in savings.
If there was an emergence right now, I think part
of this Steve has to do with the system, right.
(16:04):
It was the late seventies that someone discovered something in
the tax code where you could save for retirement on
your own. That part of the tax code was called
four oh one K, and employers were like, yes, now
I'm not on the I'm not on the you know
hook for their entire retirement.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
So now we're used to saving for ourselves for retirement
in any other incentives in the form of company matches.
But there's also you know, you fill out that paperwork
on the first day that you start the job, and
you fill out about your four oh one K, and
in some cases you're automatically enrolled in that four oh
one K. So that makes saving for retirement that much easier. Yes,
(16:43):
it's still on you, but your workplace is doing it
a few things to make it a little easier. Nobody's
doing anything to incentivize you to save money for an emergency.
And the problem then becomes, and I've seen this far
too many times, and unexpected cost to come down the pike.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
Sometimes they're legit.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
Sometimes they're you know, medical bills that you weren't expecting,
or a car blows, you know, whatever, it is all
of a sudden, this big bill comes. But I've also
seen people turning to their four oh one K and
their retirement funds because it's the really only source of
income that they have, or a pot of money that
they build up, and they buy new cars.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
I mean, they take out for the most ridiculous reasons.
Speaker 1 (17:22):
And so I say, my goodness, Like, if you're going
to do something like that, buy a car, say for
that down payment, you know, don't rob your future self
for your current self.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
Here's the problem with using your four oh one K
like a debit card. You can Yeah, I've heard all
the arguments. I'm borrowing money from myself. I can't think
of a better person of payback interest to than myself. Yeah,
most plans allow you to borrow up to a certain
amount of money. Usually it's around fifty fifty grand out
of your four oh one K. We had a contract
(17:55):
at one point with a large employer in Cincinnati who
had a factory in New Jersey, and the company sent
me out there to explain what the benefits were that
these people had, what their options were, because they were
shutting down that plan. So, in other words, a large
portion almost all these people were losing their jobs. I'll
bet you two thirds of the people I met with
(18:16):
had loans on their four oh one k. Guess what,
once you lose your job, In most four oh one ks,
you've got to pay that loan back within usually thirty
to ninety days, and if you don't, it's a distribution,
and if you're not fifty five or older, it's a
ten percent penalty on top of taxes due on the
amount that you did not pay back. That was a
(18:36):
wide That was a big eye opener for these people,
and that's the main reason you don't want to borrow
on your four oh one K.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Well, I'm going with that scenario for a second. Think
about that as a double whare me. You're losing your job.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
That's brutal, and you don't have an emergency fund already
set up, So what are you going to live off
of once whatever that severances runs out? Sometimes it takes
months to find a new job, so you don't have
any emergency savings to live off of, and then.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
You got to also pay off that floral one k loan.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
At the same time, you're just like digging a deeper
and deeper hole for yourself.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
And that's why I say man.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
Emergency fund is kind of just the foundation of a
financial plan because any weird thing that comes out of
left field and it's going to happen for all of
us at some point. It becomes so much less stressful
when you have the money to handle it. And when
you don't and you're looking at racking up credit card
debt or pulling money out of a retirement account, you're
just putting yourself in a really bad place. Here's the
(19:33):
row Worth advice. All that investing, all the good stuff
that you've done to save for retirement and plan for
your future, it can all go to waste if you're
raiding your retirement accounts because you haven't built up sufficient
emergency savings. In some cases, make that automatic pull money
out of your account every month to go into that
emergency savings.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Whatever you've got to do to make it happen.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Coming up next, we're looking at the signs of when
it might be time for your loved.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
One to hand over control of their money.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
You're listening to Simply Money presented by all Worth Financial
here in fifty five krs the talk station. You're listening
to Simply Money, I mean you Wagner along with Steve Sprovc.
I think most of us know the right thing to
do with money, So why don't.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
We always do that? Why don't we always choose that?
It can be a very complicated question. Joining us tonight
to help make sense of this, how Hirshfield.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
He's a professor of behavioral decision making at UCLA's Anderson's
School of Management.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
How we do?
Speaker 1 (20:32):
I think most of us, especially those who listen to
these kinds of shows, kind of know what we're supposed
to do, yet we don't always do it.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
Let's talk about why that is.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
Yeah, Amy, thank you so much for having me. It's
a great question, right, and I think most of us,
you're right, have that same feeling, which is, I know
I should be doing this right, but I always find
myself time doing it. And I mean, there's lots of
reasons why. We can start with the fact that we
live in the present and the thing is so much
stronger than the future. And so even if we know
(21:05):
we should put aside some money, even if we know
we should be saving or doing something for the long run,
well needs crop up and once crop up too right now,
making it hard to do the thing that we say
we want to do. So that's one big reason.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
Okay, you know we always talk about having a financial plan, right,
you make a financial plan for yourself, it helps you
plan for retirement or if you want to help the
kids pay for college, jun day or a wedding, whatever
that is.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
And I think when you sit down with.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
That advisor or you figure it out yourself, it's like, Okay,
this is good to go, right, I believe in this.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
I can get behind it. And then things get weird.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
The markets go berserk, the economy is a little crazy,
whatever it is, and all.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Of a sudden, sticking to that plan isn't as easy
as we once thought. Why is that?
Speaker 4 (21:51):
Yeah, that's exactly right. So I mean there's a couple
of things going on here. So first off, I would
say that plans are great, and the best plans are
the ones that have an automatic component to them and
have more of a lock in that makes it difficult
for us to be our own worst enemies. If that
(22:12):
doesn't make sense. What I mean by that is we
want to make it harder for ourselves to switch gears
because of some sort of sudden worry or feeling or
concern on.
Speaker 1 (22:24):
Our parts, just like our parents or our grandparents maybe
used to have a pension, right that money was there,
they couldn't touch it.
Speaker 4 (22:32):
That's exactly right, you know, And of course that's the
basic idea behind a four to one K, which is
really only a sort of personally managed pension. But the
problem there is the personally managed component, right, which is
to say, it's easy for us to start then sort
of messing around and can you know, convince ourselves that
we need that money right now now? Of course, there
(22:54):
can be times when we do need it, and that's
you know, that's the reason why it's good to have
a rainy day fund. I saw somebody the other day
say something that made so much sense to me, which is,
you're not a failure if you dip into your rainy
day fund. It means that you were prepared.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
Yeah, that's a great point. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
And we talk all the time about that rainy day
fund or that emergency fund and why you have it
there so that you're not dipping into those retirement savings.
But you know, so many of us, you know, get
those statements and we see that money either going up
or going down, and then there's in the present, and
I think that's a great point. There's things we need
right now, and so it's hard to think about the
future self and retirement and especially how I think right
(23:33):
now when you've got markets all over the place, When
you look at that money that has taken however many
number of years to get into that account starting to
go down, for a lot of people, the knee jerk
reaction is, I'm just going to take it out, even
though I think most people know somewhere in their heads
not the best idea.
Speaker 4 (23:52):
Yeah, you know, I think this is a particularly difficult
problem to solve because you know, we're convincing ourselves that
we're doing this, we're pulling the money out because we
see the dips. We convince ourselves that this is the
right move. And I would sort of, you know, push
back and say it's the right move for who, because
you know, historically you know, and of course you know,
we don't know what's happening today, but historically the data
(24:16):
would suggest that if if you have a long term goal,
it's best to just let it be, let it ride,
right and if we pull it out right now, we
may actually be ironically harming ourselves in the long term,
in the you know, for our future selves there, right,
So I would say it all depends on what are
the time horizons of our goals are. If we have
(24:38):
a long term goal, if it's retirement and that's not
for ten, twenty, thirty years or whatever it may be,
then we've built in market volatility, We've built in risk
to get higher returns there. If, of course, our goals
are much shorter term, well, then you know that's the
conversation that we should be having with our advisors about
our investments in well in safer harbors.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
I would say, absolutely, you're listening to simply money tonight
here on fifty five cars as we're joined by how Hirschel.
He's a professor of behavioral decision making at UCLA's Anderson's
School of Management. Essentially, why do we sometimes do things
with our money where we know it's not the best thing?
How I'm wondering if in your research, what you've learned
about how we grew up with money, how our parents
(25:21):
dealt with money, what is kind of just innate that
we're not even processing is probably on some kind of
subconscious level of just how we've grown up with money
that affects our decision making today.
Speaker 4 (25:32):
Yeah, this is a great point, right. So a lot
of my own research looks at the relationships that we
have with our future selves and how those relationships impact
our financial decisions, you know. And the gist, of course,
is that if we feel closer, in a stronger bond
with our future selves, then we're more likely to do
things today that might put ourselves in a better position tomorrow.
(25:55):
But your question is really about how you know historically
or what experiences are, what our life experiences are may
impact those relationships and those future decisions. And this is
a really tricky topic because of course you've got some
genetic influence and you've got some environmental influence. And this
is not my own research, but other researchers have found
(26:17):
that our life histories do matter. In other words, how
we grew up with money does matter. But one really
important caveat there is that it's not like these sort
of life histories or our childhood events are sort of
ever present, but rather they seem to rear their head
(26:37):
when the volatility arises. So, in other words, if we
grew up in a financially restricted environment, whether objectively speaking
it was financially restricted or that was our attitude toward money.
Then we start seeing that sort of mindset creep in
when we experience more volatility in the market. On the
(26:59):
other hand, if you know we grew up with a
more lately fair attitude, with more of a sense that
money was flush and you know that we could have
a cushion in the future, well then you see people
being a little bit more relaxed even when times get tougher.
So it's not just sort of all or nothing thing,
but rather you see these childhood influences sort of pop
(27:20):
up when markets go violatile or you know, when our
own personal circumstances are more volatile.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 1 (27:27):
I also want to get to social media, you know,
for those who scroll through Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, you name it.
I think we like to think like, oh, we know
about social media, like we're not making any monetary decisions
anything about how we spend our money based on social media.
But I think if we really thought about it, we
would realize that's not true.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
Yeah, you're exactly right. You know, it's a really interesting topic.
There's been a lot of theorizing about how sort of
massive events can cause you know, sort of quirky investor behavior.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
Right.
Speaker 4 (28:03):
I mean this is something that economists have talked about.
Uh well, it seems like for decades, if not centuries,
the idea that there can be bubbles and bubbles are
driven by sort of uh mania that's driven by me
seeing what other people are doing. We don't actually know
from like an empirical standpoint. We actually haven't seen research
yet looking at individual level influence from say Twitter or
(28:29):
Facebook or Reddit or social media generally speaking, and how
how those platforms then impact our own investment behavior. It's
it's actually a question that I've been looking into with
two colleagues right now, to see whether or not some
of these sites may actually intensify our sense of well,
you know, to borrow the sort of popular term, whether
you know these sites intensify the feeling of fomo, you know,
(28:51):
the fear of missing out. I see stocks, right, great investment.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
Stocks that started last year on Reddit, and a frenzy
that was an involved around that, And I think that's
a very kind of blatant example.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
But I also think.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
You kind of casually look at social media and you
see your college friend is driving a certain car or
going on a certain vacation, and maybe you can't really
afford that, but you think I should, and so then
do you make different decisions about credit card debt or
pulling money out of your four oh one K?
Speaker 3 (29:20):
Right?
Speaker 1 (29:20):
I just I think that we don't even on a
conscious level, think about these things.
Speaker 2 (29:24):
But there has to be some kind of an impact.
Speaker 4 (29:28):
Yeah, I suspect you're right about that. And so, you know,
part of the issue here, just like you said, is
that we may not be fully aware of the impact
that sort of the constant consumption of these images and
you know, comparison of experiences, et cetera, is having on
our own decisions about money and how to spend it. Again,
(29:51):
you know this is this is a speculation at this
point because I'm you know, we haven't looked at sort
of a specific influence of what I consume ontay, Facebook
or Instagram and how that impacts my decisions. But you
used to be the case that one of the advantages
of spending our money on experiences, well that experiences were
(30:12):
harder to compare and so my vacation could have been
half as much as yours, but we could have had
just the same amount of sort of positive utility from
that vacation. And now with social media, experiences are incredibly comparable,
or you know, it's much easier to compare one to another. Yes, exactly,
take away some of the advantage there.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
Yes, so just great insights from how Hershfield. He's a
professor of behavioral decision making at UCLA's Anderson's School of Management.
If you ever wondered, I know the right thing to
do with my money, but why am I not doing it?
Speaker 2 (30:43):
So much of that has to do with behavioral finance.
Speaker 1 (30:46):
You're listening to Simply Money here on fifty five KRC,
the talk station. You're listening to Simple Money because some
of my all worth financial I mean you Wagner along
with Steve s Brovack. If you've got a financial question
you'd like for us to tackle on the show, show
easy way to do it.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
Just download the iHeart app. There's a red button you.
Speaker 1 (31:03):
Can click on while you're listening to the show, record
your question. It's coming straight to us and straight ahead.
We've got ways that you can save on traveling when
it comes maybe time to retire, and also some ways
you can save right now for years and years.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
When people talk about retiring, you will often.
Speaker 1 (31:19):
Hear this term four percent rule thrown out there, and
I think Steve a lot of people like either a
formula or a number because they just want it to
be very cut and dry, very black and white.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
What do I need?
Speaker 1 (31:31):
So let's talk about the four percent rule where God
started and maybe where we are with it now.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
Yeah, And what we're talking about is how much can
you take out of your investments without running out of
money while you're alive. And that's really the bottom line
of when people are putting together financial plans. They just
don't want to run out of money. And for years
and years, the norm was five percent. Well, in nineteen
(31:56):
seventy six a financial advisor named Bill Bergen and said,
you know what, I want to put some pencil to
paper on this. And he went back to nineteen twenty six,
so this is before the depression amy and he came
up with what he calls the four percent rule and
in short version, and what he basically said was, don't
draw more than four percent out of your investments in
(32:17):
any given year. If you can keep it at four
percent or under, there's no way you're going to run
out of money, even if you have the worst timing
in the world. And in his numbers, you retired in
September of nineteen twenty nine, right before the big crash.
We've had to rethink that a little bit because you know,
on the one hand, interest rates were higher back in
(32:40):
nineteen seventy six than they were up until about a
year ago. So the question is does the four percent
still hold water? And you know what, I'm not going
to go through the effort of calculating out and turning
out a three point eight percent rule or four point
two percent rule, but I think it's a good idea
to say, you know what, if you stick around four
(33:00):
percent as a guideline and you're doing a whole lot
better than somebody who takes that ten percent in a
good year and two percent in a bad year, you know,
it helps you budget you're spending, and know what a
consistent amount of money that's coming into your household can
be so that you don't wind up bankrupt while you're
(33:21):
still kicking.
Speaker 1 (33:22):
And what he was using when he was calculating these
numbers was a sixty forty portfolio, so sixty percent in stocks,
forty percent in bonds. Well, at that time, the forty
percent in bonds, right, we're doing well. I mean, it
was a high interest rate environment. So I think it's
a great rule of thumb. I don't think it's a
rule of dumb. Sometimes we'll say someone will throw out
a rule of thumb, and we'll say that's a rule
of dumb on this show. But I think it's a
(33:44):
general guideline and I think it's a great way to
kind of simplify things.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
But I really think it's kind of a.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
Starting point of Okay, what does it look like if
I'm drawing down four percent right the stream of income?
Speaker 2 (33:56):
Is it enough for me to live on? Do I
have enough?
Speaker 1 (34:00):
But I don't think it's a be all, end all,
hard fast four percent rule anymore.
Speaker 3 (34:05):
You're listening simply Money on fifty five KRC. I'm Steve
Sprovac along with Amy Wagner, and we're talking about the
four percent rule and whether or not that still holds water.
And Amy one thing I will say is it's a
great starting point because if you're trying to figure out, Okay,
I've got social security, my spouse has social security. We don't, unfortunately,
have a pension that's not going to cut it. We
(34:27):
spend more than that, we're going to need to take
some money out of our investments, our iras, our four
oh one k's, maybe a joint investment account, maybe some savings,
and what's the magic number that you can afford to
take out of those accounts? Well, if you're in your sixties,
I think four percent is a good starting point. So
you know, let's just say you've got four thousand dollars
a month coming in in social security and I don't
(34:50):
know half a million dollars in irays in four oh
one case, Okay, that's twenty grand. That you can draw
out four percent of half a million, twenty thousand dollars,
which is what about seventeen fifty a month? Okay, that
maybe that does it for you. If you've got a million,
maybe it's forty thousand a year, and re examine that
number every year to see how it's doing. It's a
good starting point, but I think you still need a
(35:12):
financial plan drawn up because you're not really keying in
inflation another one time costs into that budget. But it's
a good place to start to see is this even
something I can think about? Or am I going to
have to work another two three years?
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Your personal tax rate?
Speaker 3 (35:27):
Right?
Speaker 2 (35:27):
How healthy are you? All of those things are variables.
Speaker 1 (35:30):
That will affect whether the four percent rule does or
does not apply well to you.
Speaker 2 (35:34):
Here's the all Worth advice.
Speaker 1 (35:35):
Will the four percent rule apply to you? We'll work
with a qualified financial pro to nail down your percentage
that's right for your unique situation.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
Are you sure you're gonna have enough money for travel
and retirement?
Speaker 1 (35:45):
For most of us, that's the goal. We've got some
ideas to help make it happen. You're listening to Simply
Money here on fifty five car see the talk station.
You're listening to simply Money percent of my all Worth
Financial I mean you Wagner along with Steve Sprovac. You know,
for many traveling is one of the biggest things you
think about when you want to retire. But let's face it,
with inflation right now, it's more expensive than ever to travel,
(36:09):
So how do you do it and maybe keep your
spending under control at the same time.
Speaker 3 (36:14):
Yeah, you know, there are ways to do it, and
of course, you know, I'll shop for deals and that
sort of thing. But have you ever heard of something
called not volunteerism, but volunteerism. You can actually volunteer in
a whole lot of different programs. Okay, you're not going
to get paid for it, but you know what, they
might give you living expenses, they might they might give
you a room on board if you go with some
(36:35):
of these projects. There's some neat deals out there.
Speaker 1 (36:38):
Yeah, there's a group called Projects Aboard, Projects Abroad. And
let's face it, one of the most expensive costs is
wherever you're staying, whenever you get there. So oftentimes maybe
some meals are covered or maybe where you're staying. And
these are like really interesting stuff. You can scuba dive
and look at marine conservation in Baja California for a week.
Speaker 2 (36:57):
There's a two week.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
Stint in Argentina working with a certain kind of monkeys
that are being rehabilitated.
Speaker 3 (37:03):
I mean this right, Wait, wait a minute, So these
monkeys with alcohol and drug problems, what kind of recap
are they? They going through?
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Different kind of.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
Ohny money, You just gotta spend it on booze.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
Of course, your brain goes there. But I mean, if
you know, if it's something that you're interested.
Speaker 1 (37:17):
In, right, marine biology or zoology or something, you can
have really amazing hands on experience and it not.
Speaker 2 (37:23):
Costs as much as it could. Here's another thing. National
Parks We were just talking over the weekend about how
amazing those trips are. There's a National Park's lifetime past
for seniors. It's eighty bucks. It's a huge bargain. If
you were to go to.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
A bunch of National parks and pay for each individually,
you're going.
Speaker 2 (37:40):
To pay a lot more money than eighty dollars.
Speaker 3 (37:42):
Oh, my son in Phoenix is in laws to definitely
take advantage of this. You know, massive numbers of National
parks out west to Brice, Zion, you name it, and
eighty bucks for the rest of your life. And that
was a big It used to be ten bucks, and
everybody griped about to go into eighty that's a deal
and a half.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
There's also something called the North American Reciprocal Museum Association,
which is essentially, if you get a membership, there's kind
of a network of museums, zoos, gardens all across the US, Canada,
all over the place, and.
Speaker 2 (38:15):
You can get reciprocal visitation.
Speaker 1 (38:17):
So if you've got a Cincinnati Zoo membership, look into
where else maybe you can use that. Also, even easy
things like the fact that you're traveled, you can probably
travel during non peak times, non peak seasons, going during
off season, those kinds of things can make a big difference.
Speaker 3 (38:32):
Yeah, and don't be afraid to go to tourist spots,
but off season in a winter. I grew up in
a tourist town. Summer, Yeah, nuts, winter a whole different
personality in my view, much nicer place to visit in
the winter without the crowds.
Speaker 1 (38:45):
You've been listening to Simply Money, presented by all Worth
Financial here on fifty five KRC, the talk station