Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good morning. I'm Tony Cruz. Mike Lyons a good friend
(00:02):
of the show for over a decade. I would say decades, Mike,
twenty years. I've been doing it that we've been talking
ever since CNN military analysts extroyed and their good morning.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hey, good morning, Tony. Great to be back. Yep. It's
been a long time, but it's been great.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Yeah, appreciate it. Let's talk about the attackers. These missiles,
these ballistic missiles that putin indicated over a year ago.
I think now that that would be a red line
for NATO and the United States with the Ukrainian War.
What's this meaning?
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Yeah, I think it's a psychological ploy that it's not
going to be that effective. It does allow Ukraine to
attack well inside of Russia to defend this Arian Kursk
more in particular, and hit hard targets that Russia was
not able to move. They had moved a lot of
the softer targets that were in range, but they're some
(00:56):
of the harder ones. We saw. The attack that they
took was on weapons and that Russia had set up there.
You know, it's not necessarily a game changer. The drone
technology can travel a lot further through and can be swarmed.
But it's just another one of these things that Vladimir
Putin uses as a psychological ploy to claim that he's
going to use nuclear weapons on I don't see that
happening either. I think nuclear weapons in the offense just
(01:18):
don't make a lot of sense. He wants to take
Ukraine and doesn't want to see it all destroyed, so
we just you know, have to see you it's a
lot more bluster, but it's not going to change the
game necessarily for Ukraine on the ground either.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
So what do to your point, what does the game
mean now with you know, President Trump and the wings, Well, I.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Think the game is to get as much land on
both sides if this if President Trump comes in and
tries to get some kind of cease fire. And that's
why Ukraine wants to keep this ground that it has
inside Russia, while Russia is going to do what it
can to destroy infrastructure or try to take some space back.
And I think any deal that's going to take place
(01:59):
will likely result in Ukraine losing this land mass that
it hasn't controlled for you know, ten years right now.
So I think that's going to be a tough pill
for them to swallow. But on the other side, you
know what's going to go against Russia. I think Donald
Trump will look to whisper in Russia's year that he
wants to make a make you know, kind of Russia
(02:20):
less of a vassal state on China. I think there'll
be economic incentives for them to stop the war and
become closer to the United States looking for it to
break up this alliance that's taking place between Russia, Iran,
North Korea, and China, which is really a greater risk
for our foreign policy.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
Very interesting dig into that a little bit for US.
I think that's really an interesting point you bring up here.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah, So to take a step further, I think people
will perceive this as you know, Trump will get blamed
for being a Russian agent again because he's going to
sign with Russia. But at the end of the day,
Russia has still more leverage in this whole process. If
we stop supporting Ukraine, then you know, Russia would grind
down Ukraine and win this war of attrition. In the
(03:03):
history would kind of show. I do think it's smart
to try to figure out a way to have a
reset with Russia. We saw that. We saw Obama try
to do that with Hillary Clinton when she was Secretary
of State. They did it in a, you know, kind
of a farcical way by bringing an easy button to
a meeting. But I think in real life, Donald Trump
will try to do a deal with Russia, and I
think it will be based on economics, and I think
he'll play to Russia's emotions that they're not superpower any
(03:27):
longer and and get out of China's shadow. I think
that'll be that could go a long way to stopping
the conflict.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
That's really interesting from the standpoint of the of Ukraine.
I mean, it's what the next to Russia is the
largest European country, I believe, you know around does do
you think the stuff slattery of Putin from wanting to
conquer the entire region? Does he want Ukraine and go
back to the you know whatever six hundred ad the
(03:57):
way to Russia.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Then I think he does get Ukraine as a symbolic
head and and more or less belongs with Russia. But
I also think it has to do with encroaching on
his borders in some ways, I still felt you we
have talked about this that you know, NATO can't be
everybody but Russia, and he wants this buffer between Eastern
(04:18):
and Western Europe. He said that this has gone on
since really the nineties when we first said we weren't
going to bring these countries into NATO, and then all
we did was line up and bring them in one
by one. So I do think that has something to
do with it's his security. But to look at it
from that perspective, it's it's, you know, we want to
support a democratic Ukraine, but it hasn't been always democratic.
We want we want to make sure that we support
(04:40):
our ally there on some level, but it's not it's
not a NATO ally. It's something that you know, Russia
has to say in the game.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Let's take a break. We're about more coming up from
Mike Lions, CNN Military Analysts Extraordinaire coming up next. Good morning,
I'm Tony Cruz. Uh Mike Lions as CNN Military analyst. Mike.
Let's let's go back because history means a lot, right
the North Atlantic Treaty, who started with just twelve nations
including the United States, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Iceland,
(05:07):
et cetera, et cetera. But you know, to your point,
over the decades, it's been expanded to I don't know
how many members what thirty two countries now, and I'm
not trying to I see Putin's point in some ways,
he's starting to say, well, wait a minute. You know,
everything's just encroaching around us. If we had Mexico and
(05:29):
Brazil and some other countries, you know outside of just
Venezuela who hates us in this part of the hemisphere,
we might get a little testy about that.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Yeah, I mean, Marlon Roe doctrine would allow us to
and involve ourselves militarily if that happened, And that's something
that's you know, since the beginning of our country. But
you know, our foreign policy in Europe since since the
fall of the Soviet Union has been just a disaster.
On a lot of Olton has to do with this,
you know, we've not approached this from like like you're
(06:01):
an investor, think about think about this as you have
assets that you need to be using and deploying. And
we didn't have to necessarily bring all these countries into NATO.
They don't they some of them still do not pay
their fair share, as Trump will say, they don't what
that means is they don't spend enough on their GDP
on their defenses. We've brought in Latvia, Stony, Lithuania, these
(06:21):
small basically tripwire countries that don't have any kind of
population that would that would suck us all into this
very large war there. So you know, we've we've had
this foreign policy of you know, kind of speak loudly,
but we've we've ended up overusing really what's not been
a big stick at times because Europe and Germany and
France have just relied on the nuclear umbrella in order
(06:42):
to defend them. It's been a disaster and they don't
need to be reshaped and reformed. I'm not saying it
needs to go away, but it has to be taking
a look at and it's completely failed for what's the
de terms for what it's to take place in Ukraine.
Speaker 1 (06:54):
Right now, let's talk a little bit about President Trump. Blect.
President Trump liked with us some of his picks, Pete, Hegseat,
the Box News, He's picked a lot of television stars. Yeah,
but that's his defense secretary pick. People are complaining that
he doesn't have, you know, all of the intelligence. I
don't mean his intelligence just inside, an inside guy, what do.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
You think, Well, I think Pete Hegstath is going to
bring intent to the job. It's already clear of what
he wants to do. He wants to make the military
much more of a wolf fighting operation and get away
from DEI, get away from anything that doesn't have to
do with that. I'm assuming he's going to put a
sign in every conference room in the Pentagon that says
the purpose of the military is to fight and win
(07:40):
the nation's wars. And every time they have a meeting
in that room, they're going to look at that sign
and say, doesn't have anything to do with that, And
if the answer is no, they're going to get up,
they're going to get out of there. So everyone's going
to be clear about what he wants to do with
the military. It will no longer be used for social
tinkering and social justice and moving things around and social experimentation.
It'll be used to fight. And when the names wars.
(08:01):
Let's hope he gets budget money. Let's hope he gets
rearms our military. Because we've sent a lot of stockpiles
to Ukraine, we send a lot of things across to Israel,
and we need to kind of rearm ourselves again at
given this threat that's going on in China, Well, what.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
Do you think in two minutes or less, what is
going to happen with President Trump and the Middle East,
particularly as it pertains to Israel, Gaza and Hesbala and Iran.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Yeah, Tony, I think gloves are off in the Middle East.
He's going to let Israel win that war. What's going
on in Gaza right now is if they're close to
a ceasefire because Hamas can't even control the humanitarian aid.
They've got gangs there. They're getting close to getting a
surrender there. I think the Lebanon situation is stabilized, and
this is just the calm before the storm because Trump
is going to let Israel go after Iranian's nuclear capability.
(08:49):
They're just not going to let Iran have that. At
some point you'll see that that attack take place, likely
once he gets sworn in as president.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
Maybe that that quickly.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
No, I think so, because he won't do it under Biden.
He'll give him that respect at least at this point.
But Israel always has strategic patience around right now is
as weak as it's ever been. Their air defense platforms
that have been have been taken out, and if it's
anything we should help them do that. We should make
sure that mission is successful. There's no way we need
Iran to have a nuclear up and I also think
(09:21):
the two states solution is dead. I don't think that
that's going to be on the table anytime soon in
the Middle East.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
All right, Mike Lyons, appreciate your time seeing in Military
Analyst and we'll talk soon. Thanks so much, Thanks thanks
for having appreciate you
Good morning. I'm Tony Cruz. Mike Lyons a good friend
(00:02):
of the show for over a decade. I would say decades, Mike,
twenty years. I've been doing it that we've been talking
ever since CNN military analysts extroyed and their good morning.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hey, good morning, Tony. Great to be back. Yep. It's
been a long time, but it's been great.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Yeah, appreciate it. Let's talk about the attackers. These missiles,
these ballistic missiles that putin indicated over a year ago.
I think now that that would be a red line
for NATO and the United States with the Ukrainian War.
What's this meaning?
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Yeah, I think it's a psychological ploy that it's not
going to be that effective. It does allow Ukraine to
attack well inside of Russia to defend this Arian Kursk
more in particular, and hit hard targets that Russia was
not able to move. They had moved a lot of
the softer targets that were in range, but they're some
(00:56):
of the harder ones. We saw. The attack that they
took was on weapons and that Russia had set up there.
You know, it's not necessarily a game changer. The drone
technology can travel a lot further through and can be swarmed.
But it's just another one of these things that Vladimir
Putin uses as a psychological ploy to claim that he's
going to use nuclear weapons on I don't see that
happening either. I think nuclear weapons in the offense just
(01:18):
don't make a lot of sense. He wants to take
Ukraine and doesn't want to see it all destroyed, so
we just you know, have to see you it's a
lot more bluster, but it's not going to change the
game necessarily for Ukraine on the ground either.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
So what do to your point, what does the game
mean now with you know, President Trump and the wings, Well, I.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Think the game is to get as much land on
both sides if this if President Trump comes in and
tries to get some kind of cease fire. And that's
why Ukraine wants to keep this ground that it has
inside Russia, while Russia is going to do what it
can to destroy infrastructure or try to take some space back.
And I think any deal that's going to take place
(01:59):
will likely result in Ukraine losing this land mass that
it hasn't controlled for you know, ten years right now.
So I think that's going to be a tough pill
for them to swallow. But on the other side, you
know what's going to go against Russia. I think Donald
Trump will look to whisper in Russia's year that he
wants to make a make you know, kind of Russia
(02:20):
less of a vassal state on China. I think there'll
be economic incentives for them to stop the war and
become closer to the United States looking for it to
break up this alliance that's taking place between Russia, Iran,
North Korea, and China, which is really a greater risk
for our foreign policy.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
Very interesting dig into that a little bit for US.
I think that's really an interesting point you bring up here.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah, So to take a step further, I think people
will perceive this as you know, Trump will get blamed
for being a Russian agent again because he's going to
sign with Russia. But at the end of the day,
Russia has still more leverage in this whole process. If
we stop supporting Ukraine, then you know, Russia would grind
down Ukraine and win this war of attrition. In the
(03:03):
history would kind of show. I do think it's smart
to try to figure out a way to have a
reset with Russia. We saw that. We saw Obama try
to do that with Hillary Clinton when she was Secretary
of State. They did it in a, you know, kind
of a farcical way by bringing an easy button to
a meeting. But I think in real life, Donald Trump
will try to do a deal with Russia, and I
think it will be based on economics, and I think
he'll play to Russia's emotions that they're not superpower any
(03:27):
longer and and get out of China's shadow. I think
that'll be that could go a long way to stopping
the conflict.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
That's really interesting from the standpoint of the of Ukraine.
I mean, it's what the next to Russia is the
largest European country, I believe, you know around does do
you think the stuff slattery of Putin from wanting to
conquer the entire region? Does he want Ukraine and go
back to the you know whatever six hundred ad the
(03:57):
way to Russia.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Then I think he does get Ukraine as a symbolic
head and and more or less belongs with Russia. But
I also think it has to do with encroaching on
his borders in some ways, I still felt you we
have talked about this that you know, NATO can't be
everybody but Russia, and he wants this buffer between Eastern
(04:18):
and Western Europe. He said that this has gone on
since really the nineties when we first said we weren't
going to bring these countries into NATO, and then all
we did was line up and bring them in one
by one. So I do think that has something to
do with it's his security. But to look at it
from that perspective, it's it's, you know, we want to
support a democratic Ukraine, but it hasn't been always democratic.
We want we want to make sure that we support
(04:40):
our ally there on some level, but it's not it's
not a NATO ally. It's something that you know, Russia
has to say in the game.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Let's take a break. We're about more coming up from
Mike Lions, CNN Military Analysts Extraordinaire coming up next. Good morning,
I'm Tony Cruz. Uh Mike Lions as CNN Military analyst. Mike.
Let's let's go back because history means a lot, right
the North Atlantic Treaty, who started with just twelve nations
including the United States, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Iceland,
(05:07):
et cetera, et cetera. But you know, to your point,
over the decades, it's been expanded to I don't know
how many members what thirty two countries now, and I'm
not trying to I see Putin's point in some ways,
he's starting to say, well, wait a minute. You know,
everything's just encroaching around us. If we had Mexico and
(05:29):
Brazil and some other countries, you know outside of just
Venezuela who hates us in this part of the hemisphere,
we might get a little testy about that.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Yeah, I mean, Marlon Roe doctrine would allow us to
and involve ourselves militarily if that happened, And that's something
that's you know, since the beginning of our country. But
you know, our foreign policy in Europe since since the
fall of the Soviet Union has been just a disaster.
On a lot of Olton has to do with this,
you know, we've not approached this from like like you're
(06:01):
an investor, think about think about this as you have
assets that you need to be using and deploying. And
we didn't have to necessarily bring all these countries into NATO.
They don't they some of them still do not pay
their fair share, as Trump will say, they don't what
that means is they don't spend enough on their GDP
on their defenses. We've brought in Latvia, Stony, Lithuania, these
(06:21):
small basically tripwire countries that don't have any kind of
population that would that would suck us all into this
very large war there. So you know, we've we've had
this foreign policy of you know, kind of speak loudly,
but we've we've ended up overusing really what's not been
a big stick at times because Europe and Germany and
France have just relied on the nuclear umbrella in order
(06:42):
to defend them. It's been a disaster and they don't
need to be reshaped and reformed. I'm not saying it
needs to go away, but it has to be taking
a look at and it's completely failed for what's the
de terms for what it's to take place in Ukraine.
Speaker 1 (06:54):
Right now, let's talk a little bit about President Trump. Blect.
President Trump liked with us some of his picks, Pete, Hegseat,
the Box News, He's picked a lot of television stars. Yeah,
but that's his defense secretary pick. People are complaining that
he doesn't have, you know, all of the intelligence. I
don't mean his intelligence just inside, an inside guy, what do.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
You think, Well, I think Pete Hegstath is going to
bring intent to the job. It's already clear of what
he wants to do. He wants to make the military
much more of a wolf fighting operation and get away
from DEI, get away from anything that doesn't have to
do with that. I'm assuming he's going to put a
sign in every conference room in the Pentagon that says
the purpose of the military is to fight and win
(07:40):
the nation's wars. And every time they have a meeting
in that room, they're going to look at that sign
and say, doesn't have anything to do with that, And
if the answer is no, they're going to get up,
they're going to get out of there. So everyone's going
to be clear about what he wants to do with
the military. It will no longer be used for social
tinkering and social justice and moving things around and social experimentation.
It'll be used to fight. And when the names wars.
(08:01):
Let's hope he gets budget money. Let's hope he gets
rearms our military. Because we've sent a lot of stockpiles
to Ukraine, we send a lot of things across to Israel,
and we need to kind of rearm ourselves again at
given this threat that's going on in China, Well, what.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
Do you think in two minutes or less, what is
going to happen with President Trump and the Middle East,
particularly as it pertains to Israel, Gaza and Hesbala and Iran.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Yeah, Tony, I think gloves are off in the Middle East.
He's going to let Israel win that war. What's going
on in Gaza right now is if they're close to
a ceasefire because Hamas can't even control the humanitarian aid.
They've got gangs there. They're getting close to getting a
surrender there. I think the Lebanon situation is stabilized, and
this is just the calm before the storm because Trump
is going to let Israel go after Iranian's nuclear capability.
(08:49):
They're just not going to let Iran have that. At
some point you'll see that that attack take place, likely
once he gets sworn in as president.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
Maybe that that quickly.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
No, I think so, because he won't do it under Biden.
He'll give him that respect at least at this point.
But Israel always has strategic patience around right now is
as weak as it's ever been. Their air defense platforms
that have been have been taken out, and if it's
anything we should help them do that. We should make
sure that mission is successful. There's no way we need
Iran to have a nuclear up and I also think
(09:21):
the two states solution is dead. I don't think that
that's going to be on the table anytime soon in
the Middle East.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
All right, Mike Lyons, appreciate your time seeing in Military
Analyst and we'll talk soon. Thanks so much, Thanks thanks
for having appreciate you
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