Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good. They have our official economists back on the program,
doctor Ernie Goss from Great University. Time for Ernesto manifesto
or any Good morning.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Hey, Gary, goot to be with you and Rosie and team.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
You bet. I saw the headline their latest Mid America
Manufacturing Index and the word slumps is prominent and you
survey all the states from it in the region, basically
Minnesota down to Arkansas. What are you seeing that's concerning
to you right now?
Speaker 2 (00:29):
What we're seeing, Gary, of course, and this is true
for both our surveys. One survey's agg in ten states,
mostly the same states, and then the manufacturing sector supy
managers to nine states. As you said, both of them
were seeing downturns in new orders, downturns and employment employment
both employment in the rural urban areas, both declining right
(00:52):
now and it's just really pointing toward much slower growth
in the weeks and months. He much like the national
number that came out yesterday as well. So we're going
to have to keep our eye on what's going on
this Friday when the employment report comes out. But if
you look at the stock market, we're seeing both markets.
We're looking at the futures market today looking like both
(01:12):
the stock markets the equity markets are beginning to friut
in that one of these two individuals is going to
win the presidency and both are doing some things that
are pros and some things that aren't very good for
the economy.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
What would you say it as examples for each candidate.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Trump's increase in tariffs, that's just not good for the economy.
We grow soybean and trade for bananas. We don't want
to be growing bananas in Nebraska. And then on the
other side, the Harris is proposed there, it's littered with
bad things. The increase providing a subsidy for new home
purchase homes that would drive up prices even more. In
(01:50):
the building we're talking about increases in spending way beyond
what can be afforded by the taxpayer.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
I noticed that because you have a print out state
by state, that Nebraska the overall index rose a little.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Bit, right, That's right. That was hard to figure out
Gary just on one month. It's very difficult to determine
why that happened or what produced that. But what we're seeing,
of course in the global economy China, Japan, Germany, Europe,
all economies out there are moving slower, moving in negative direction,
(02:30):
and that's being telegraphed back to this part of the nation.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Nebraska's manufacturing sector expanded twenty twenty four year to date
exports to three point seven billion from three point five billion.
That's good, that's six points to six and a half percent. Game.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
We'd like to see more, though, that's just not enough
to stimulate the make up for what's going on in
the domestic economy and the domestic demand and the domestic
economy is coming down, and of course we are again
we're seeing job losses in manufacturing, We're seeing job losses
in agriculturally linked businesses out there and is seeing we're
(03:09):
seeing this part of the country, but it's a national phenomenon.
We're definitely seeing a slow down again. This Friday is
going to be a very important date for all individuals
out there to watch because again the economy is slowing
down and seeing what goes on with the unemployment rate
when it comes out.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
It's interesting, isn't it. It seems like we've been wondering
and asking about a recession for years now. We're not
really in one, but we think we're going to have it.
Where are you on this now?
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Well, you can't really have It's very difficult to have
a recession when you have a federal spending growing at
the base is growing six to seven trillion dollars proposed
by the divide administration. I mean, that makes up for
fills in a lot of gaps out there right now.
And so this federal spinning can I go on like
(04:00):
it has been. Of course, Harris is proposed to grow
even more. I mean her proposals would increase the deficit
even more. And the Penn Wharton model is that both
Trump's proposals and Harris's proposals to increase the deficit. It's
just that Trumps would have an impact and more positive
impact on GDP growth. So that's what we're seeing again.
(04:25):
It's difficult to have a deficit eight recession when you
have spending like this.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
You're looking for a couple of rate cuts right by
the Fed between now and the end of the year.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
That's right. We'll see on September the eighteenth will be
the first cut. If things are really bad. This Friday
with the employment report, we'll see a cut about fifty
basis points or a half percentage point on September the eighteenth.
If it's just an okay employment report, we'll see a
cut of a quarter percent. But nonetheless we'll see two
(04:56):
rate cuts this year. I'm fairly comfortable with that. We
could see even more more than that if this economy
continues to deteriorate as we're seeing right now.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
Best case scenario, Arnie, for how far interest rates drop
before the end of the year.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
About fifty eight to seventy five basis points three quarter percent.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Rosie gotch okay. Well, that here's the key. I think.
Will that goes the real estate market because that throws
off so many other economic factors.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
No, it will not. That's those are long term rates.
These are short term rates. But the long term rates
are going to move sideways to down. But again, it's
it's more of a it's more of a supply issue
in terms of real estate now, that's I'm been talking
about residential now. A commercial real estate's already in an
economic downturn right now, and residential the prices are increasing
(05:47):
at significant bases. And again, Harris had proposed a twenty
five thousand dollars subsidy to new home buyers. That's really
a non starter. That would be, that would be a
benefit to those who those who have already benefitted well.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
And now she's proposing a fifty thousand dollars gift to
any small business startup. That's a one point seven trillion
dollar tab over ten years. I don't know how you
qualify for it, and whether it's a PPP loan or
it's just a gift, and what do you do to
get it, and what business do you need to be in.
But this is the kind of thing that is just
(06:22):
so common in elections, Ernie, and that is throw something
out there, see how stupid the people are, and if
they believe it, they'll vote for me.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Right then you'll see Gostel so she said, to get
part of that.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Yeah, JM. Rose Partners is be first in line, that's right.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
At the same time, at the same time, she's proposing
to increase the corporate tax rate to twenty eight percent
and make us uncompetitive among the thirty eight OECD nations.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
A lot of people vote for Santa Claus, Ernie, you know, yeah,
they do. Have a great day. Always good to have
you on, appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Always good to be with you.
Speaker 1 (06:57):
Our official economist, doctor Ernie Goss eating you,
Good. They have our official economists back on the program,
doctor Ernie Goss from Great University. Time for Ernesto manifesto
or any Good morning.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Hey, Gary, goot to be with you and Rosie and team.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
You bet. I saw the headline their latest Mid America
Manufacturing Index and the word slumps is prominent and you
survey all the states from it in the region, basically
Minnesota down to Arkansas. What are you seeing that's concerning
to you right now?
Speaker 2 (00:29):
What we're seeing, Gary, of course, and this is true
for both our surveys. One survey's agg in ten states,
mostly the same states, and then the manufacturing sector supy
managers to nine states. As you said, both of them
were seeing downturns in new orders, downturns and employment employment
both employment in the rural urban areas, both declining right
(00:52):
now and it's just really pointing toward much slower growth
in the weeks and months. He much like the national
number that came out yesterday as well. So we're going
to have to keep our eye on what's going on
this Friday when the employment report comes out. But if
you look at the stock market, we're seeing both markets.
We're looking at the futures market today looking like both
(01:12):
the stock markets the equity markets are beginning to friut
in that one of these two individuals is going to
win the presidency and both are doing some things that
are pros and some things that aren't very good for
the economy.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
What would you say it as examples for each candidate.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Trump's increase in tariffs, that's just not good for the economy.
We grow soybean and trade for bananas. We don't want
to be growing bananas in Nebraska. And then on the
other side, the Harris is proposed there, it's littered with
bad things. The increase providing a subsidy for new home
purchase homes that would drive up prices even more. In
(01:50):
the building we're talking about increases in spending way beyond
what can be afforded by the taxpayer.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
I noticed that because you have a print out state
by state, that Nebraska the overall index rose a little.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Bit, right, That's right. That was hard to figure out
Gary just on one month. It's very difficult to determine
why that happened or what produced that. But what we're seeing,
of course in the global economy China, Japan, Germany, Europe,
all economies out there are moving slower, moving in negative direction,
(02:30):
and that's being telegraphed back to this part of the nation.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Nebraska's manufacturing sector expanded twenty twenty four year to date
exports to three point seven billion from three point five billion.
That's good, that's six points to six and a half percent. Game.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
We'd like to see more, though, that's just not enough
to stimulate the make up for what's going on in
the domestic economy and the domestic demand and the domestic
economy is coming down, and of course we are again
we're seeing job losses in manufacturing, We're seeing job losses
in agriculturally linked businesses out there and is seeing we're
(03:09):
seeing this part of the country, but it's a national phenomenon.
We're definitely seeing a slow down again. This Friday is
going to be a very important date for all individuals
out there to watch because again the economy is slowing
down and seeing what goes on with the unemployment rate
when it comes out.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
It's interesting, isn't it. It seems like we've been wondering
and asking about a recession for years now. We're not
really in one, but we think we're going to have it.
Where are you on this now?
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Well, you can't really have It's very difficult to have
a recession when you have a federal spending growing at
the base is growing six to seven trillion dollars proposed
by the divide administration. I mean, that makes up for
fills in a lot of gaps out there right now.
And so this federal spinning can I go on like
(04:00):
it has been. Of course, Harris is proposed to grow
even more. I mean her proposals would increase the deficit
even more. And the Penn Wharton model is that both
Trump's proposals and Harris's proposals to increase the deficit. It's
just that Trumps would have an impact and more positive
impact on GDP growth. So that's what we're seeing again.
(04:25):
It's difficult to have a deficit eight recession when you
have spending like this.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
You're looking for a couple of rate cuts right by
the Fed between now and the end of the year.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
That's right. We'll see on September the eighteenth will be
the first cut. If things are really bad. This Friday
with the employment report, we'll see a cut about fifty
basis points or a half percentage point on September the eighteenth.
If it's just an okay employment report, we'll see a
cut of a quarter percent. But nonetheless we'll see two
(04:56):
rate cuts this year. I'm fairly comfortable with that. We
could see even more more than that if this economy
continues to deteriorate as we're seeing right now.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
Best case scenario, Arnie, for how far interest rates drop
before the end of the year.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
About fifty eight to seventy five basis points three quarter percent.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Rosie gotch okay. Well, that here's the key. I think.
Will that goes the real estate market because that throws
off so many other economic factors.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
No, it will not. That's those are long term rates.
These are short term rates. But the long term rates
are going to move sideways to down. But again, it's
it's more of a it's more of a supply issue
in terms of real estate now, that's I'm been talking
about residential now. A commercial real estate's already in an
economic downturn right now, and residential the prices are increasing
(05:47):
at significant bases. And again, Harris had proposed a twenty
five thousand dollars subsidy to new home buyers. That's really
a non starter. That would be, that would be a
benefit to those who those who have already benefitted well.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
And now she's proposing a fifty thousand dollars gift to
any small business startup. That's a one point seven trillion
dollar tab over ten years. I don't know how you
qualify for it, and whether it's a PPP loan or
it's just a gift, and what do you do to
get it, and what business do you need to be in.
But this is the kind of thing that is just
(06:22):
so common in elections, Ernie, and that is throw something
out there, see how stupid the people are, and if
they believe it, they'll vote for me.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Right then you'll see Gostel so she said, to get
part of that.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Yeah, JM. Rose Partners is be first in line, that's right.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
At the same time, at the same time, she's proposing
to increase the corporate tax rate to twenty eight percent
and make us uncompetitive among the thirty eight OECD nations.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
A lot of people vote for Santa Claus, Ernie, you know, yeah,
they do. Have a great day. Always good to have
you on, appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Always good to be with you.
Speaker 1 (06:57):
Our official economist, doctor Ernie Goss eating you,
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