Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Great to welcome the official economists of kfab's morning news,
doctor Ernie Goss from Creighton University, back to the program,
Earn nest.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Other morning, Good morning, very good be with you and
your team.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
James here says, I know, he doesn't say he declares
that we will have a recession in twenty twenty five.
What do you think, Well.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
There's certainly a probability of that. I mean, we've got
a lot Trump has a lot of hurdles in the
in the next year, starting with of course in December
thirty first, but then of this year, and then of
course next year. You got the potential of dock workers
strike beginning in January, potentially beginning on January fifteenth.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Ernie, I'm sorry you broke up a little bit there.
What was the significance of December thirty first?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
That's the debt ceiling?
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (00:50):
With the debt ceiling, in other words, they passed the
spending bills to spend, but they don't want to pass
the debt ceiling bill.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Okay. Well, remarkable burst of enthusiasm on Wall Street on
the market the day after the election. What do you
make of that? And what do you see a second
Trump term looking like for us economically, Well, I.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
Think it's going to be very good. Now it depends
if he follows through on his tariffs. Now you won't
find any of commonness that agrees on on across the
board tariffs because there will be retaliation. Now we'll wait,
have to wait and see if that's negotiations or what's
going on there and CPS serious, I mean, we'll see
the Musk is already called the Chancellor of Germany stupid,
(01:38):
stupid Schultz. Now that's probably not good term. Let's see it,
I would say.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
So I missed that one. Well I missed that one. Yeah,
so he's taking a page out of the Trump buck
calling names. Huh.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Well that's what. Well, there are two heavy hitters, and
you know he knows more about negotiations. Yeah, so let's
let's go with that.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
Well, this is one of the reasons that I believe
we'll have a recession of twenty twenty five, Ernie. And
you know you studied this every day, so you know,
and you also look at historical trends, but who too
very historically prove an indicator suggests a recession is coming
when inflation rises materially within a year a recession is
likely on the way. Because people are liable to lose
(02:22):
their jobs, they typically cut back on spending, and that
could absolutely happen. And the jobs report, the last job's
report we saw was really bad. And the yield curve
has now been calling for a recession for two years,
and the Federal Reserve thinks that that on that alone,
the chance of a recession is at least fifty percent
in the next twelve months.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
You're out about that, Jim. And really the issue's biggest
issue for me and the other it's going forward. We've got,
of course, the spending, a deficit of one point two
trillion dollars. We got a dead of thirty six trillion dollars,
and that's going to put up for pressure on interestrates.
In other words, when the Federal Reserve cut interestrates on
September the eighteenth, the next day, long term interest rates rose.
(03:07):
Now what is that telling us. That's selling us the
the US debt is a problem. It's also telling us
inflation is a potential problem in the second half of
twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Isn't this mitigated by the fact And I think it's
fair to say it's a fact that Trump is going
to unleash our energy production, which will lower the cost
of energy, which will because everything is dependent on transportation,
will lower the cost of goods. And that's how to
(03:39):
be a positive.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
That's certainly a big factor. And drill, baby, drill that
this terminology, and that's certainly good for the economy. And
I think also some of the IRRAID Inflation Reduction Act,
you have to pull back some of that spending and
others that we're talking about the federal government spending up
to seven up to seven trillion dollars. Now that's not
play money, and Dad's called he's there and we all
(04:03):
know that. So that's as you said, the jobs numbers
are looking weaker and weaker, and I think that's one
of the fine reasons the Fed's cutting back on interest rates.
Another reason is because the Federal Reserve doesn't wants to
cut the debt of the interest burden of the federal government.
So there's pool and tuck and pool there.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Yeah, so what are they going to do December? They're
going to lower it again, the Fed.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
I think they probably will, but it's not for the
reasons they're saying. They're saying they defeated inflation it's like
defeeding that that campfire you thought you put out in
front of your tent. You know, That's sort of what
we're talking about.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
And in my judgment, the job situation is still a
major problem, Ernie. If that job's report was dreadful and
we've seen across the board cuts and a lot of
big employers, where do the new jobs come from? In
your view?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Well, I think as as we were talking about there,
as Gary was talking about, we're we're going to see
some in the energy sector. That's we're going to see
that also some of the manufacturing manufacturing. We've lost forty
five thousand manufacturing jobs in twenty twenty four alone, So
I think we're going to see some expansions in manufacturing
(05:18):
as some of the manufacturing comes back home, and that's
that's a good thing. But again, the tariffs that might
bring that about are not good.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
What did you think of the exub runs on Wall
Street the day after the election? What was that about?
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Well, I think it is brought about by the fact
that we're going to have less of a regulatory burden.
In other words, look what happened to bitcoin? Why did
bitcoin jump up there? Well, it jumps up because I
think Trump is going to fire Gary Ginsler, who's head
of the SEC and he's been one of the major
factors restraining growth in cryptocurrencies. So that's going to be
(05:52):
a good thing. We'll have to wait and see what
happens there, but I'm sure fairly sure Gary Ginsler will
be fired, and that's a good thing as well for
the stock market and to the overall US economy.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
This is, uh, this is a out of left field
question or anie, but I'm just curious. We know that
university universities in general tend to be woke in much
of their curriculum. How immune from that are you in
the economic sciences, which is basically what you deal with.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Well, I think it has a lot to do with
my age. Yeah, anybody in my age is immune to
a lot of forces, I would say. But I think
on campus, and I have to say, Creighton has been
great for me and they I've felt no pressure from
Creighton University, and I think most people at Creighton would
say the same thing. Now, there are universities that are
not as welcoming to diverse opinions as Creighton University.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
I have to say, right, but in your discipline it
doesn't naturally lend itself to politics, does it.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
Well, it seems like you know, I mean heny heny
uh a common jumped on board writing letters against Trump.
I mean that was perfect nonsense. Those were letters that
were That's that that. I don't understand that. I really
it was just pure politics in my judgment.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
Indeed, always great to have you on Ernie, Happy Thanksgiving
and Veterans Day and Christmas. If we don't talk to
you before the new.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Year, as a veteran, I have to say I'm appreciative
of all that, So thank you.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Thank you for your service, doctor Ernie Goss from Creighton
University our official economists here on kfab's Morning News
Great to welcome the official economists of kfab's morning news,
doctor Ernie Goss from Creighton University, back to the program,
Earn nest.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Other morning, Good morning, very good be with you and
your team.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
James here says, I know, he doesn't say he declares
that we will have a recession in twenty twenty five.
What do you think, Well.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
There's certainly a probability of that. I mean, we've got
a lot Trump has a lot of hurdles in the
in the next year, starting with of course in December
thirty first, but then of this year, and then of
course next year. You got the potential of dock workers
strike beginning in January, potentially beginning on January fifteenth.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Ernie, I'm sorry you broke up a little bit there.
What was the significance of December thirty first?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
That's the debt ceiling?
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (00:50):
With the debt ceiling, in other words, they passed the
spending bills to spend, but they don't want to pass
the debt ceiling bill.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Okay. Well, remarkable burst of enthusiasm on Wall Street on
the market the day after the election. What do you
make of that? And what do you see a second
Trump term looking like for us economically, Well, I.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
Think it's going to be very good. Now it depends
if he follows through on his tariffs. Now you won't
find any of commonness that agrees on on across the
board tariffs because there will be retaliation. Now we'll wait,
have to wait and see if that's negotiations or what's
going on there and CPS serious, I mean, we'll see
the Musk is already called the Chancellor of Germany stupid,
(01:38):
stupid Schultz. Now that's probably not good term. Let's see it,
I would say.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
So I missed that one. Well I missed that one. Yeah,
so he's taking a page out of the Trump buck
calling names. Huh.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Well that's what. Well, there are two heavy hitters, and
you know he knows more about negotiations. Yeah, so let's
let's go with that.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
Well, this is one of the reasons that I believe
we'll have a recession of twenty twenty five, Ernie. And
you know you studied this every day, so you know,
and you also look at historical trends, but who too
very historically prove an indicator suggests a recession is coming
when inflation rises materially within a year a recession is
likely on the way. Because people are liable to lose
(02:22):
their jobs, they typically cut back on spending, and that
could absolutely happen. And the jobs report, the last job's
report we saw was really bad. And the yield curve
has now been calling for a recession for two years,
and the Federal Reserve thinks that that on that alone,
the chance of a recession is at least fifty percent
in the next twelve months.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
You're out about that, Jim. And really the issue's biggest
issue for me and the other it's going forward. We've got,
of course, the spending, a deficit of one point two
trillion dollars. We got a dead of thirty six trillion dollars,
and that's going to put up for pressure on interestrates.
In other words, when the Federal Reserve cut interestrates on
September the eighteenth, the next day, long term interest rates rose.
(03:07):
Now what is that telling us. That's selling us the
the US debt is a problem. It's also telling us
inflation is a potential problem in the second half of
twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Isn't this mitigated by the fact And I think it's
fair to say it's a fact that Trump is going
to unleash our energy production, which will lower the cost
of energy, which will because everything is dependent on transportation,
will lower the cost of goods. And that's how to
(03:39):
be a positive.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
That's certainly a big factor. And drill, baby, drill that
this terminology, and that's certainly good for the economy. And
I think also some of the IRRAID Inflation Reduction Act,
you have to pull back some of that spending and
others that we're talking about the federal government spending up
to seven up to seven trillion dollars. Now that's not
play money, and Dad's called he's there and we all
(04:03):
know that. So that's as you said, the jobs numbers
are looking weaker and weaker, and I think that's one
of the fine reasons the Fed's cutting back on interest rates.
Another reason is because the Federal Reserve doesn't wants to
cut the debt of the interest burden of the federal government.
So there's pool and tuck and pool there.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Yeah, so what are they going to do December? They're
going to lower it again, the Fed.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
I think they probably will, but it's not for the
reasons they're saying. They're saying they defeated inflation it's like
defeeding that that campfire you thought you put out in
front of your tent. You know, That's sort of what
we're talking about.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
And in my judgment, the job situation is still a
major problem, Ernie. If that job's report was dreadful and
we've seen across the board cuts and a lot of
big employers, where do the new jobs come from? In
your view?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Well, I think as as we were talking about there,
as Gary was talking about, we're we're going to see
some in the energy sector. That's we're going to see
that also some of the manufacturing manufacturing. We've lost forty
five thousand manufacturing jobs in twenty twenty four alone, So
I think we're going to see some expansions in manufacturing
(05:18):
as some of the manufacturing comes back home, and that's
that's a good thing. But again, the tariffs that might
bring that about are not good.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
What did you think of the exub runs on Wall
Street the day after the election? What was that about?
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Well, I think it is brought about by the fact
that we're going to have less of a regulatory burden.
In other words, look what happened to bitcoin? Why did
bitcoin jump up there? Well, it jumps up because I
think Trump is going to fire Gary Ginsler, who's head
of the SEC and he's been one of the major
factors restraining growth in cryptocurrencies. So that's going to be
(05:52):
a good thing. We'll have to wait and see what
happens there, but I'm sure fairly sure Gary Ginsler will
be fired, and that's a good thing as well for
the stock market and to the overall US economy.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
This is, uh, this is a out of left field
question or anie, but I'm just curious. We know that
university universities in general tend to be woke in much
of their curriculum. How immune from that are you in
the economic sciences, which is basically what you deal with.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Well, I think it has a lot to do with
my age. Yeah, anybody in my age is immune to
a lot of forces, I would say. But I think
on campus, and I have to say, Creighton has been
great for me and they I've felt no pressure from
Creighton University, and I think most people at Creighton would
say the same thing. Now, there are universities that are
not as welcoming to diverse opinions as Creighton University.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
I have to say, right, but in your discipline it
doesn't naturally lend itself to politics, does it.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
Well, it seems like you know, I mean heny heny
uh a common jumped on board writing letters against Trump.
I mean that was perfect nonsense. Those were letters that
were That's that that. I don't understand that. I really
it was just pure politics in my judgment.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
Indeed, always great to have you on Ernie, Happy Thanksgiving
and Veterans Day and Christmas. If we don't talk to
you before the new.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Year, as a veteran, I have to say I'm appreciative
of all that, So thank you.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Thank you for your service, doctor Ernie Goss from Creighton
University our official economists here on kfab's Morning News
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