Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Happy New Year to you, Gary, Rosie and the gang there.
Good to be with.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
You, you bet good to be with you. And the last
few chats we had, as I recall in twenty twenty four,
you were you were not glum, but you weren't particularly
optimistic about the way things look here. You do your
main Street Index and you look at several states in
the middle part of the country. You look back on
twenty twenty four, net positive and negative were about neutral,
(00:28):
a little above neutral.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Gary, it was a tough year for manufacturing, a tough
year for agriculture, and that those are the two sectors
we focus on here at Creighton University. We lost jobs
in manufacturing for the year. That's true for the region,
that's true for the US, and it doesn't look much
more positive in the coming year, at least for the
(00:49):
first half of twenty twenty five. But we're still there
are other sectors that are doing reasonally well. For example,
housing is, of course a little I would say, a
little hot, a little too hot.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
In fact, I see interest rates just one up again,
a little bit. Mortgage interest rates, that's.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
Right, And that's a strange thing. Folks find it hard
to believe that Feds reducing interest rates, yet mortgage rates
run higher. Well, they're running high. Those long term rates
are not Those are set by investors, not the Federal Reserve,
and investors see more inflation out there than the Federal
Reserve seems.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
To see, right, And the tenure treasury yield is the
big benchmark for mortgage interest rates. We can get inflation
under two percent, then you'll probably see it come down.
But Ernie overall, livestock prices are very robust right now.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
That's good for Nebraska.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
We're the second largest cattle producer in the country behind Texas.
Shouldn't that buck up the Nebraska ag economy. Even if
crop prices are a little down, it.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Is rosy, and that's a good thing. Of course, Pork
production in terms of exports not doing very well. In
other words, also agricultural exports really softened this year compared
to twenty twenty three. But you're right. Live stock in
terms of cattle, we're doing very well, and that's in
Nebraska is a big, big producer and that has a
(02:13):
real positive impact. With grain is much weaker, and we
got a lot of grain out there grain farmers where
the farming the grain prices are just not They're below
break even for most farmers.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Trump's theory, which I believe is true, is that if
we drill, baby drill, and if we get energy prices
to come down sufficiently, that has a massive ripple effect
on the entire economy in terms of inflation, because everything
comes on a truck or a train or some fossil
fuel powered vehicle, and so you can have dramatically less inflation.
(02:50):
And if that happens, that helps everybody. Or am I
missing something here, Renie?
Speaker 1 (02:55):
No, you're right, Gary, But metaphorically speaking, President Biden's list
left a mess in the kitchen. He's blocked offshore oil
drilling now, and then you on the Atlantic and Thesiscific
coast he's got We've got two wars that are being
funded in one Ukraine of course, the others and the
Middle East. Of course, that really straps the incoming Trump
(03:16):
administration what they can really do going forward. And of
course we've got it. We've got a very strong dollar,
which hurts ex sports. Uh, and that's we're seeing that
in our two surveys.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
Okay, so you sound you sound kind of pessimistic to
me about about what Trump can accomplish. Even in the
face of a lot of big money business people being
very bullish and enthusiastic about his administration.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Well, that's right, Gary, I mean, I think it's fomo
fear of missing out. You've got a lot of investors
globally and I'm but I have to say that are
looking positively and they should. We are definitely the healthiest
horse in a glue factory, no doubt about that. And
across the bloyd I mean, we are very very competitive.
(04:04):
Other nations cannot compete with us. So now it's not
the time to roll up to the sidewalks. We're going
to do well. We've got the longshoreman strike East Coast
strike impending on January the fifteenth. That would be a
big deal. I think both President Trump and President Biden
are going to give in to the to the unions
(04:25):
in that fight.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
You think Trump will huh.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Well, it's going to be settled before he comes in.
It's January fifty. Oh yes, and that's you know, but
he would as well. I mean what they're calling for
is let's not let's abandon automation. We are competitive, we
can out compete the globe. Don't roll up automation. Automation
is helpful for all of us. AI is here to stay.
(04:51):
We're going to benefit from it. Let's compete. We are competitive.
We will continue to be the most competitive nation on
the face the earth.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
Yes, no, I believe that healthiest horse. And that's beautiful.
I mean they say I'm mister negative.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
I think I'm called a perma bear in some cases,
you know. And what's what's the housing market? What? What
starts in Florida usually starts in California. This case is
Florida and Texas and Georgia. For the housing market, we've
got inventory is building up there, so we're going to
see some software housing prices and that's not such a
bad thing.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
What do you think of Rosie's theory that this Nebraska
budget deficit forecast of four hundred and some million dollars
as a political mirage?
Speaker 1 (05:41):
It probably is, Gary, I think Rosie's right on that one.
I think we've got we're we're seeing some real positive
factors in the Nebraska economy. Of course, Uh, if you
look at in our surveys up in nine and nine
states we survey, Nebraska is the strongest in there. So
we're doing really well. And I think it'll show up
(06:01):
in our numbers.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Yeah, it's it's a political tool that the left uses
down there because they want us to slow down income
tax cuts. They don't want property tax cuts because that
could affect school funding. This is pretty common around here.
But you watch, by seventy days or so into the
ninety day session, suddenly that four hundred and ninety million
(06:23):
dollar deficit will turn into a two hundred million dollar surplus.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
All let's hope. Well, Ernie, that was that was a
fine manifesto to kick off very far.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Well, thank thanks for having me on. And I'm looking
forward to twenty twenty five, even though it's going to
be a little softer than i'd like to see, but
it'll still be buzzy, excellent.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
We'll talk frequently on the new year. That's our official
economists great in University. Is Ernie Goss here on kfab's
Morning News
Happy New Year to you, Gary, Rosie and the gang there.
Good to be with.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
You, you bet good to be with you. And the last
few chats we had, as I recall in twenty twenty four,
you were you were not glum, but you weren't particularly
optimistic about the way things look here. You do your
main Street Index and you look at several states in
the middle part of the country. You look back on
twenty twenty four, net positive and negative were about neutral,
(00:28):
a little above neutral.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Gary, it was a tough year for manufacturing, a tough
year for agriculture, and that those are the two sectors
we focus on here at Creighton University. We lost jobs
in manufacturing for the year. That's true for the region,
that's true for the US, and it doesn't look much
more positive in the coming year, at least for the
(00:49):
first half of twenty twenty five. But we're still there
are other sectors that are doing reasonally well. For example,
housing is, of course a little I would say, a
little hot, a little too hot.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
In fact, I see interest rates just one up again,
a little bit. Mortgage interest rates, that's.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
Right, And that's a strange thing. Folks find it hard
to believe that Feds reducing interest rates, yet mortgage rates
run higher. Well, they're running high. Those long term rates
are not Those are set by investors, not the Federal Reserve,
and investors see more inflation out there than the Federal
Reserve seems.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
To see, right, And the tenure treasury yield is the
big benchmark for mortgage interest rates. We can get inflation
under two percent, then you'll probably see it come down.
But Ernie overall, livestock prices are very robust right now.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
That's good for Nebraska.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
We're the second largest cattle producer in the country behind Texas.
Shouldn't that buck up the Nebraska ag economy. Even if
crop prices are a little down, it.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Is rosy, and that's a good thing. Of course, Pork
production in terms of exports not doing very well. In
other words, also agricultural exports really softened this year compared
to twenty twenty three. But you're right. Live stock in
terms of cattle, we're doing very well, and that's in
Nebraska is a big, big producer and that has a
(02:13):
real positive impact. With grain is much weaker, and we
got a lot of grain out there grain farmers where
the farming the grain prices are just not They're below
break even for most farmers.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Trump's theory, which I believe is true, is that if
we drill, baby drill, and if we get energy prices
to come down sufficiently, that has a massive ripple effect
on the entire economy in terms of inflation, because everything
comes on a truck or a train or some fossil
fuel powered vehicle, and so you can have dramatically less inflation.
(02:50):
And if that happens, that helps everybody. Or am I
missing something here, Renie?
Speaker 1 (02:55):
No, you're right, Gary, But metaphorically speaking, President Biden's list
left a mess in the kitchen. He's blocked offshore oil
drilling now, and then you on the Atlantic and Thesiscific
coast he's got We've got two wars that are being
funded in one Ukraine of course, the others and the
Middle East. Of course, that really straps the incoming Trump
(03:16):
administration what they can really do going forward. And of
course we've got it. We've got a very strong dollar,
which hurts ex sports. Uh, and that's we're seeing that
in our two surveys.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
Okay, so you sound you sound kind of pessimistic to
me about about what Trump can accomplish. Even in the
face of a lot of big money business people being
very bullish and enthusiastic about his administration.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Well, that's right, Gary, I mean, I think it's fomo
fear of missing out. You've got a lot of investors
globally and I'm but I have to say that are
looking positively and they should. We are definitely the healthiest
horse in a glue factory, no doubt about that. And
across the bloyd I mean, we are very very competitive.
(04:04):
Other nations cannot compete with us. So now it's not
the time to roll up to the sidewalks. We're going
to do well. We've got the longshoreman strike East Coast
strike impending on January the fifteenth. That would be a
big deal. I think both President Trump and President Biden
are going to give in to the to the unions
(04:25):
in that fight.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
You think Trump will huh.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Well, it's going to be settled before he comes in.
It's January fifty. Oh yes, and that's you know, but
he would as well. I mean what they're calling for
is let's not let's abandon automation. We are competitive, we
can out compete the globe. Don't roll up automation. Automation
is helpful for all of us. AI is here to stay.
(04:51):
We're going to benefit from it. Let's compete. We are competitive.
We will continue to be the most competitive nation on
the face the earth.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
Yes, no, I believe that healthiest horse. And that's beautiful.
I mean they say I'm mister negative.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
I think I'm called a perma bear in some cases,
you know. And what's what's the housing market? What? What
starts in Florida usually starts in California. This case is
Florida and Texas and Georgia. For the housing market, we've
got inventory is building up there, so we're going to
see some software housing prices and that's not such a
bad thing.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
What do you think of Rosie's theory that this Nebraska
budget deficit forecast of four hundred and some million dollars
as a political mirage?
Speaker 1 (05:41):
It probably is, Gary, I think Rosie's right on that one.
I think we've got we're we're seeing some real positive
factors in the Nebraska economy. Of course, Uh, if you
look at in our surveys up in nine and nine
states we survey, Nebraska is the strongest in there. So
we're doing really well. And I think it'll show up
(06:01):
in our numbers.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Yeah, it's it's a political tool that the left uses
down there because they want us to slow down income
tax cuts. They don't want property tax cuts because that
could affect school funding. This is pretty common around here.
But you watch, by seventy days or so into the
ninety day session, suddenly that four hundred and ninety million
(06:23):
dollar deficit will turn into a two hundred million dollar surplus.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
All let's hope. Well, Ernie, that was that was a
fine manifesto to kick off very far.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Well, thank thanks for having me on. And I'm looking
forward to twenty twenty five, even though it's going to
be a little softer than i'd like to see, but
it'll still be buzzy, excellent.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
We'll talk frequently on the new year. That's our official
economists great in University. Is Ernie Goss here on kfab's
Morning News
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