Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's dig in a little deeper to the tariff situation
here with our official economists of kfab's Morning News, Great Universities,
earning gods, Earny.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Good morning, Hey Gary, good be with you and your team.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
You have been on record with us, as have many
other economists, that there's a tremendous inflationary risk with tariffs,
and yet Trump, in this case two out of the three,
he's been successful in not having to implement them right away,
put a thirty day pause on the Canadian and the
(00:33):
Mexican tariffs. So what do you think of that? To
start with that that this was a negotiating ploy.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Well, I hope it was a negotiatingmploye. Otherwise we all lose.
Implementing tariffs tit for tit with China for example, is
just not good.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Oh do we lose?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
You weloth the economy, US economy down. Just not a
good move. But now there are talks set to go
on with between gen Ping and President Trump. But of
course gen Ping is not limited by Congress and not
limited by a popular vote, so he has a little
more flexibility.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Right. How likely do you think it is because one
of Trump's stated goals there are several, and one of
them is to get zero fentanyl coming into this country
in these three countries are instrumental or have been instrumental
in that. But what do you think of one of
his other priorities, and that is to incent companies to
(01:33):
move their operations here, American companies to move their operations
here and avoid the tariffs.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Well, the owned shoring is not worked thus far. That
was Biden's gold as well. He did it through subsidies
and that didn't work. It's just a costly methodology. In
my judgment, I think they're better and we benefit from trade.
The US is the most productive nation on the face
of the earth. We shouldn't fear competition, We shouldn't age competition.
(02:01):
We went how long ago was when Japan was going
to take over the earth? Didn't happen. China is don't.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Fear we're having an issue with your phone this.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
Morning, Arnie, are you there, I'm here, okay.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
Okay, yeah. But but but Japan was not an adversary.
Speaker 2 (02:19):
Well, they were erecting barrier as much, and they were
basing their economy off the trade, and of course that
didn't that didn't pan out, and it won't pan out
with China either.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
One of the things I'm not sure about at all.
I keep hearing red flags being raised about what a
trade war involving tariffs might do to the supply chain.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
How is the supply chain involved, Well, we do that survey.
We did a survey yesterday, came out. We released it
yesterday Craigon University and our survey of supply managers in manufacturing.
It's very hurtful to manufacturing what our supply manager did
in advance to the tariffs that were set to go
in from Mexico and for Canada and China yesterday they imported,
(03:03):
increase their imported goods and they are the supply chain
is just it's there's too much going on out there
in terms of trade the international global economy. But I
have to say the US is not the only nation
globally that's pushing back and creating these barriers to trade
in others. But as Robert Frost said, you better find
out what you're walling in and walling out before you
(03:26):
build a wall.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
Let's visit about China's economy for a minute, Earnie, and
your estimation, what's its condition?
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Not good, Jim, It's really they're having more troubles than
we are. We're the healthiest pat in the ICU Union
right now, and and and that's a good position to
be in, so I don't want to move in the
other direction. China is having some real difficulties. In two
thousand and eight, when we enact to tariffs on China
(03:54):
put tariffs on China, the Chinese government subsidized their producers
to make up for that loss to the US in
terms of exports the US. They don't have the money
this time, so they can't do it this time. But again,
they could offset this impact if we erect tariffs on China.
They can afset it with devaguing their currency. So that's
(04:15):
another avenue they have that we don't have.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
What do you think President Trump is going to say
to them? Because many believe that China will be ready
to take over Taiwan in twenty twenty seven, and since
we gave up Bagram Air Force Base, we really don't
have any capacity to defend Taiwan from dry land. If
that's true, then they can cut off the Straits of Taiwan,
(04:38):
which last report, about sixty percent of Indo China's trade
goes through the Straits of Taiwan. What do you think
will he what will he visit with President Chi about?
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Well, I think it's going to hopefully it's about trade
and reducing barriers, not increasing barriers, and negotiating lower tariffs
instead of higher tariffs. That would be they have erectord
bearers for US as well. But again, and if you
push into if China invaded a Taiwan, we would see
some real significant impacts, and that would be in terms
(05:12):
of price of cold for example, the yield on tenure
US treasure would drop. We would see long term interest
rates drop, and of course that's a good thing, but
not for the reason you're talking about. Though.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
Let's suppose that this ramps up, that the President talks
with the Chinese premiere today and they don't come to
any agreement, and this thing ramps up, and you do
the Midlands Main Street Index all the time, and you
have your finger on the pulse around here, what would
be the biggest impact in our area specifically regarding products
affected by tariffs, It would.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
Certainly be an agriculture and manufacturing. Those are two sectors
we survey each month, bank CEOs and earliers at ten states.
Manufacturing in nine MIDIWAIC stations, including the RASCA. It would
have a significant negative impact on those two sectors which
are global in nature, and we need we need those
sales abroad, and we of course we need the inputs
(06:06):
as well. You know you talked about onshoring. We also
the automobile industry. You have a lot of automobile parts
coming in from the South to nes Mexico. Of course,
we don't want to see bears, at least I don't
want to see bears erected there. And most economists, all
ninety nine point nine percent of economists see terraces and
barriers to trade as a real negative for the global
(06:27):
economy and for the state of the national economies.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Ernie, thanks, We'll watch what comes out of that international
call today.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Always good to be with the Barian team.
Let's dig in a little deeper to the tariff situation
here with our official economists of kfab's Morning News, Great Universities,
earning gods, Earny.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Good morning, Hey Gary, good be with you and your team.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
You have been on record with us, as have many
other economists, that there's a tremendous inflationary risk with tariffs,
and yet Trump, in this case two out of the three,
he's been successful in not having to implement them right away,
put a thirty day pause on the Canadian and the
(00:33):
Mexican tariffs. So what do you think of that? To
start with that that this was a negotiating ploy.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Well, I hope it was a negotiatingmploye. Otherwise we all lose.
Implementing tariffs tit for tit with China for example, is
just not good.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Oh do we lose?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
You weloth the economy, US economy down. Just not a
good move. But now there are talks set to go
on with between gen Ping and President Trump. But of
course gen Ping is not limited by Congress and not
limited by a popular vote, so he has a little
more flexibility.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Right. How likely do you think it is because one
of Trump's stated goals there are several, and one of
them is to get zero fentanyl coming into this country
in these three countries are instrumental or have been instrumental
in that. But what do you think of one of
his other priorities, and that is to incent companies to
(01:33):
move their operations here, American companies to move their operations
here and avoid the tariffs.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Well, the owned shoring is not worked thus far. That
was Biden's gold as well. He did it through subsidies
and that didn't work. It's just a costly methodology. In
my judgment, I think they're better and we benefit from trade.
The US is the most productive nation on the face
of the earth. We shouldn't fear competition, We shouldn't age competition.
(02:01):
We went how long ago was when Japan was going
to take over the earth? Didn't happen. China is don't.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Fear we're having an issue with your phone this.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
Morning, Arnie, are you there, I'm here, okay.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
Okay, yeah. But but but Japan was not an adversary.
Speaker 2 (02:19):
Well, they were erecting barrier as much, and they were
basing their economy off the trade, and of course that
didn't that didn't pan out, and it won't pan out
with China either.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
One of the things I'm not sure about at all.
I keep hearing red flags being raised about what a
trade war involving tariffs might do to the supply chain.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
How is the supply chain involved, Well, we do that survey.
We did a survey yesterday, came out. We released it
yesterday Craigon University and our survey of supply managers in manufacturing.
It's very hurtful to manufacturing what our supply manager did
in advance to the tariffs that were set to go
in from Mexico and for Canada and China yesterday they imported,
(03:03):
increase their imported goods and they are the supply chain
is just it's there's too much going on out there
in terms of trade the international global economy. But I
have to say the US is not the only nation
globally that's pushing back and creating these barriers to trade
in others. But as Robert Frost said, you better find
out what you're walling in and walling out before you
(03:26):
build a wall.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
Let's visit about China's economy for a minute, Earnie, and
your estimation, what's its condition?
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Not good, Jim, It's really they're having more troubles than
we are. We're the healthiest pat in the ICU Union
right now, and and and that's a good position to
be in, so I don't want to move in the
other direction. China is having some real difficulties. In two
thousand and eight, when we enact to tariffs on China
(03:54):
put tariffs on China, the Chinese government subsidized their producers
to make up for that loss to the US in
terms of exports the US. They don't have the money
this time, so they can't do it this time. But again,
they could offset this impact if we erect tariffs on China.
They can afset it with devaguing their currency. So that's
(04:15):
another avenue they have that we don't have.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
What do you think President Trump is going to say
to them? Because many believe that China will be ready
to take over Taiwan in twenty twenty seven, and since
we gave up Bagram Air Force Base, we really don't
have any capacity to defend Taiwan from dry land. If
that's true, then they can cut off the Straits of Taiwan,
(04:38):
which last report, about sixty percent of Indo China's trade
goes through the Straits of Taiwan. What do you think
will he what will he visit with President Chi about?
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Well, I think it's going to hopefully it's about trade
and reducing barriers, not increasing barriers, and negotiating lower tariffs
instead of higher tariffs. That would be they have erectord
bearers for US as well. But again, and if you
push into if China invaded a Taiwan, we would see
some real significant impacts, and that would be in terms
(05:12):
of price of cold for example, the yield on tenure
US treasure would drop. We would see long term interest
rates drop, and of course that's a good thing, but
not for the reason you're talking about. Though.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
Let's suppose that this ramps up, that the President talks
with the Chinese premiere today and they don't come to
any agreement, and this thing ramps up, and you do
the Midlands Main Street Index all the time, and you
have your finger on the pulse around here, what would
be the biggest impact in our area specifically regarding products
affected by tariffs, It would.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
Certainly be an agriculture and manufacturing. Those are two sectors
we survey each month, bank CEOs and earliers at ten states.
Manufacturing in nine MIDIWAIC stations, including the RASCA. It would
have a significant negative impact on those two sectors which
are global in nature, and we need we need those
sales abroad, and we of course we need the inputs
(06:06):
as well. You know you talked about onshoring. We also
the automobile industry. You have a lot of automobile parts
coming in from the South to nes Mexico. Of course,
we don't want to see bears, at least I don't
want to see bears erected there. And most economists, all
ninety nine point nine percent of economists see terraces and
barriers to trade as a real negative for the global
(06:27):
economy and for the state of the national economies.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Ernie, thanks, We'll watch what comes out of that international
call today.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Always good to be with the Barian team.
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