Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Pleasure to welcome our official economist, doctor Ernie Goss from
creat University back to the program for a pre holiday
Ernesto manifesto or any good.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Morning, Thank very good to be with you and Rosie
and Lucy, you bet.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
I want to get your view of what we think
will be the final result on the big beautiful bill.
But I want to start with you're Mid American Manufacturing Index.
You do these periodic reports and it's always a pretty
good barometer of our region here, and you're seeing slow
growth still right.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Absolutely like a stone skinning across the top of a lake.
It's dipping in and out of growth. And that's what
we're seeing right down the middle of the country.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
Yeah, So what does that tell us about Let's say,
I don't know if there is a typical or average
KFAB area family, but let's say, you know, let's say
middle income doing okay, trying to get by, would like
to buy a house, spending money on essentials and all
(01:10):
of that, not not in poverty, but not wealthy by
any means. What does your number? What do your numbers
say for that family going forward? Is it going to
Are you optimistic about things improving?
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Well, I'm an economist, Gary, we always see the gray
lining around the silver clouds. So things look a little
gloomy there, especially in terms of buying a house. Right now,
housing affordability is not there. In other words, housing prices
are right now taking up forty to forty five percent
of monthly income. That should be around twenty eight to
(01:47):
twenty nine to thirty percent. So right now it's the
affordability across the board is not good, certainly for those
the average family in America and in Nebraska for that matter.
In fact, Nebraska last year last quarter I should say,
had the slowest growth or actually had the worst growth
(02:07):
in the nation Iowa and Nebraska negative six percent annualized
for quarter one of two thousand and twenty five.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Yeah, the one thing, one of the things, maybe the
biggest thing slowing that the housing market down as the
Fed refusing the lower rates. And what do you think
of this feud? I think it's a feud between the
president and the head of the Fed. What do you
think will happen there?
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Well, I think j Powell. I think I'm fear of
the President's pushing him in the corner so he can't
raise In other words, it's sort of like I'll show you,
and it's a battle between the two and Jay Powell
will win that battle because Jay Powell cannot be removed
at least not easily by the president. His term is
up next year in May. I think just let it go.
(02:55):
I mean, it's a losing battle for the president there, Rach,
You're not going to come down, fact more likely than
not come down because of what the President's doing.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
But that's a bad reason. That's a bad reason, Ernie
for the head of the Federal Reserve is say, I'll
show you that's a poor reason for not lowering rates.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
You know, absolutely, absolutely, Gary and Rights should come down.
The President is correct, if they had meats again at
the end of this month, they should reduce rates at
that time. I don't think they will. I think they'll
be forced right to I said, praise rates, reduce rates.
They'll be forced to reduce rates in September as well.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
Well.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
The other issue with that, and I have a two
part question, Ernie for you. The first one is the
big issue is he still thinks there will be lagging
inflation from tariffs. Now we have not seen inflation from
the tariffs. The President declares that it's hokey. It's just
complete hookum that there will be inflation. But Jerome Pile
thinks there may be. Do you believe that's his primary motivation?
(03:53):
And two, how much of the unaffordability of homes has
to do with insurance, utility, and property taxes?
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Well, to your first question is, certainly we're seeing real
problems there. In other words, the tariffs are really squeezing
profit margins of companies. That's where the impacts have been
right now. They've not resulted in any significant increases in prices,
and in fact, I don't expect prices to go up
(04:24):
much because of inflation. Now, in the second second matter,
you're absolutely correct. The maintenance, insurance, and taxes are really
making houses unaffordable across the US, and something's got to
go over there, and that what we're going to see
is housing prices across the US are going to come down,
(04:45):
and they may come down hard.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Ernie Gosp with us here, Ernie, you are now for
the purposes of this question, Thebraska second District Congressman Ernie Goss.
You've got the big, beautiful bail in front of you today.
What do you do?
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Well, first off, it's not beautiful it is big, and
I do think there needs to be more cuts in there.
There's just not enough. In other words, we all, all
Americans want the government, the federal government to spend war,
yet we don't want to pay any more taxes. I mean,
we've all from cradle to grave. We've all got to
pitch in and have experience to cuts and also some
(05:23):
of the pay for some of this spending that we
accumulated during the pandemic.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
You' don't believe that, as the administration says this package,
combined with the fat General, eventually lowering rates will will
goose the economy and we'll make up the deficit or
a big part of it.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Well, I believe the absence of passing it will cause
a recession. There's no doubt January first, that taxes will
go up if this bill has not passed. I'm not
saying I wouldn't pass it. I'm just saying it's not
as beautiful as some are claiming.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
It's never In fact, that's never worked. They've they've do
under REGA well, but but the deficits still went up.
Debt and deficits still went up. Only Bill Clinton in
the last forty five years has balanced the budget. He
did it with taxing time, expansion of these, but they
kept spending more money they never covered to debt.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Yeah, well, Rosie, look at this. They're thirty seven million
Americans below the poverty line. Yeah. There twice that number,
seventy one million that are all medicate. There needs to
be some cuts to medicate. I'm sorry, we'll have to
endure those cuts, but there's no appetite for it.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Well, they're still allowing Medicaid recipients who are here illegally.
It's unbelievable. No, that's actually taken out. That was taken
out of the last center version. No, not unless they
did it late yesterday yet because they just allowed two
amendments that would have removed them.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Well, then I've gotten slow information because Eric Schmid, the
Missouri Senator, said immigrants are not getting medicaid now. Okay,
So he said that this morning, moving target, isn't it?
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Really?
Speaker 2 (06:59):
We're moving as a President Obama, he wanted, we're moving
toward national healthcare, and that's that's ultimately what we're going
to see. Now. It may not be in my lifetime,
but we're moving that direction.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
Man, You're going to live a long time so that's
good Ernie. Thank you all have a great fourth.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Happy, Happy Independence Day to all of you. Thanks for
having me on. Gary
Pleasure to welcome our official economist, doctor Ernie Goss from
creat University back to the program for a pre holiday
Ernesto manifesto or any good.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Morning, Thank very good to be with you and Rosie
and Lucy, you bet.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
I want to get your view of what we think
will be the final result on the big beautiful bill.
But I want to start with you're Mid American Manufacturing Index.
You do these periodic reports and it's always a pretty
good barometer of our region here, and you're seeing slow
growth still right.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Absolutely like a stone skinning across the top of a lake.
It's dipping in and out of growth. And that's what
we're seeing right down the middle of the country.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
Yeah, So what does that tell us about Let's say,
I don't know if there is a typical or average
KFAB area family, but let's say, you know, let's say
middle income doing okay, trying to get by, would like
to buy a house, spending money on essentials and all
(01:10):
of that, not not in poverty, but not wealthy by
any means. What does your number? What do your numbers
say for that family going forward? Is it going to
Are you optimistic about things improving?
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Well, I'm an economist, Gary, we always see the gray
lining around the silver clouds. So things look a little
gloomy there, especially in terms of buying a house. Right now,
housing affordability is not there. In other words, housing prices
are right now taking up forty to forty five percent
of monthly income. That should be around twenty eight to
(01:47):
twenty nine to thirty percent. So right now it's the
affordability across the board is not good, certainly for those
the average family in America and in Nebraska for that matter.
In fact, Nebraska last year last quarter I should say,
had the slowest growth or actually had the worst growth
(02:07):
in the nation Iowa and Nebraska negative six percent annualized
for quarter one of two thousand and twenty five.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Yeah, the one thing, one of the things, maybe the
biggest thing slowing that the housing market down as the
Fed refusing the lower rates. And what do you think
of this feud? I think it's a feud between the
president and the head of the Fed. What do you
think will happen there?
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Well, I think j Powell. I think I'm fear of
the President's pushing him in the corner so he can't
raise In other words, it's sort of like I'll show you,
and it's a battle between the two and Jay Powell
will win that battle because Jay Powell cannot be removed
at least not easily by the president. His term is
up next year in May. I think just let it go.
(02:55):
I mean, it's a losing battle for the president there, Rach,
You're not going to come down, fact more likely than
not come down because of what the President's doing.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
But that's a bad reason. That's a bad reason, Ernie
for the head of the Federal Reserve is say, I'll
show you that's a poor reason for not lowering rates.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
You know, absolutely, absolutely, Gary and Rights should come down.
The President is correct, if they had meats again at
the end of this month, they should reduce rates at
that time. I don't think they will. I think they'll
be forced right to I said, praise rates, reduce rates.
They'll be forced to reduce rates in September as well.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
Well.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
The other issue with that, and I have a two
part question, Ernie for you. The first one is the
big issue is he still thinks there will be lagging
inflation from tariffs. Now we have not seen inflation from
the tariffs. The President declares that it's hokey. It's just
complete hookum that there will be inflation. But Jerome Pile
thinks there may be. Do you believe that's his primary motivation?
(03:53):
And two, how much of the unaffordability of homes has
to do with insurance, utility, and property taxes?
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Well, to your first question is, certainly we're seeing real
problems there. In other words, the tariffs are really squeezing
profit margins of companies. That's where the impacts have been
right now. They've not resulted in any significant increases in prices,
and in fact, I don't expect prices to go up
(04:24):
much because of inflation. Now, in the second second matter,
you're absolutely correct. The maintenance, insurance, and taxes are really
making houses unaffordable across the US, and something's got to
go over there, and that what we're going to see
is housing prices across the US are going to come down,
(04:45):
and they may come down hard.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Ernie Gosp with us here, Ernie, you are now for
the purposes of this question, Thebraska second District Congressman Ernie Goss.
You've got the big, beautiful bail in front of you today.
What do you do?
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Well, first off, it's not beautiful it is big, and
I do think there needs to be more cuts in there.
There's just not enough. In other words, we all, all
Americans want the government, the federal government to spend war,
yet we don't want to pay any more taxes. I mean,
we've all from cradle to grave. We've all got to
pitch in and have experience to cuts and also some
(05:23):
of the pay for some of this spending that we
accumulated during the pandemic.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
You' don't believe that, as the administration says this package,
combined with the fat General, eventually lowering rates will will
goose the economy and we'll make up the deficit or
a big part of it.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Well, I believe the absence of passing it will cause
a recession. There's no doubt January first, that taxes will
go up if this bill has not passed. I'm not
saying I wouldn't pass it. I'm just saying it's not
as beautiful as some are claiming.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
It's never In fact, that's never worked. They've they've do
under REGA well, but but the deficits still went up.
Debt and deficits still went up. Only Bill Clinton in
the last forty five years has balanced the budget. He
did it with taxing time, expansion of these, but they
kept spending more money they never covered to debt.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Yeah, well, Rosie, look at this. They're thirty seven million
Americans below the poverty line. Yeah. There twice that number,
seventy one million that are all medicate. There needs to
be some cuts to medicate. I'm sorry, we'll have to
endure those cuts, but there's no appetite for it.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Well, they're still allowing Medicaid recipients who are here illegally.
It's unbelievable. No, that's actually taken out. That was taken
out of the last center version. No, not unless they
did it late yesterday yet because they just allowed two
amendments that would have removed them.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Well, then I've gotten slow information because Eric Schmid, the
Missouri Senator, said immigrants are not getting medicaid now. Okay,
So he said that this morning, moving target, isn't it?
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Really?
Speaker 2 (06:59):
We're moving as a President Obama, he wanted, we're moving
toward national healthcare, and that's that's ultimately what we're going
to see. Now. It may not be in my lifetime,
but we're moving that direction.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
Man, You're going to live a long time so that's
good Ernie. Thank you all have a great fourth.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Happy, Happy Independence Day to all of you. Thanks for
having me on. Gary
Popular Podcasts
United States of Kennedy
United States of Kennedy is a podcast about our cultural fascination with the Kennedy dynasty. Every week, hosts Lyra Smith and George Civeris go into one aspect of the Kennedy story.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com