July 22, 2024 • 38 mins
Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss if markets could unwind the ‘Trump trade’ after Biden drops out of presidential race. Investors count on earnings to calm $900 billion US tech rout. A stock-market rotation of historic proportions is taking shape. Flight cancellations caused by tech outage continued over the weekend. Ble screens everywhere are the latest tech woe for Microsoft. Why are job seekers losing confidence? Massachusetts moves closer to mandating employers to disclose salary ranges on job postings.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
The Financial Exchanges produced by Money MattersRadio and is hosted by employees of the
Armstrong Advisory Group, a registered investmentadvisor that provides investment advisory services. All
opinions expressed are solely those of thehosts, do not reflect the opinions of
Armstrong Advisory or anyone else, anddo not guarantee profit. Investments can lose
money. This program does not offerany specific financial or investment advice. Please
(00:21):
consult your own financial, tax,and estate planning advisors before making any investment
decisions. Armstrong and Money Matters Radiodo not compensate each other for referrals and
are not affiliated. This is theFinancial Exchange, with Chuck Zada and Mike
Armstrong, your exclusive look at businessand financial news affecting your day, your
(00:42):
city, your world. Stay informedand up to date about economic and market
trends plus breaking business news every day. The Financial Exchange is a proud partner
of the Disabled American Veterans Department ofMassachusetts. Help us support our great American
heroes by visiting DAV five K Bostonand making a donation today. The DAV
(01:03):
five K Boston is presented by VeteransDevelopment Corporation. This is the Financial Exchange
with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong.Hope y'all had a fantastic weekend. Is
Chuck, Mike and Tucker with youhere today, and big story that we're
gonna start with the obvious shake upin the US presidential race with Joe Biden
(01:23):
dropping out of the race over theweekend and the presumptive favorite to when the
Democrat nomination now is Kamala Harris.I say presumptive because well, for a
few reasons. The first is,as we've seen over the last four weeks,
a lot can change pretty darn quicklyin this race four weeks ago.
(01:48):
You go back to mid June,you know, a week before the debate,
and betting markets, which I thinkare they're not accurate, but they
at least give you a general proxyof what you know, markets are thinking
and what people are thinking. Said, yeah, former President Trump has a
slight edge over President Biden to winthe race. Immediately after the debate,
(02:10):
everyone kind of woke up and saidthat slight edge is probably a large edge
because that was not a good debateperformance by Joe Biden. And so very
quickly, I think you went fromkind of like a fifty five percent probability
of Trump winning up to sixty fiveseventy is what I've seen in a number
of places. And from there youthen continue on and a week ago then
(02:35):
you had an attempted assassination of DonaldTrump, and then this weekend you had
Joe Biden drop out of the presidentialrace. So there's been one Monday where
we haven't had like first of itskind type oh it is to share.
A lot can change quickly, andthis is why, quite honestly, it's
(02:57):
really too early to still be talkingabout the pre presidential election with any degree
of certainty, confidence or like theidea that we have any idea what's going
to happen, because there still isa long long way to go. There's
one hundred and five days to goto this point. To that end,
the CNBC article that we have tocover today is you know that markets could
(03:19):
unwind the Trump trade after Biden dropsout of the presidential race. Can we
do away with the notion that therewas any form of Trump trade? There
was some I'm going to disagree there, and I don't think it's where people
were looking though. And what Imean by that is the last week and
a half of what we've seen inmarkets has been in no way related to
the presidential election because a it startedon a Wednesday, but like and none
(03:43):
of the big news has happened onWednesdays in the last month. B.
I think that when you look at, you know, the idea of,
hey, what is the Trump trade, it's it's been concentrated in two areas,
in my opinion. The first isinterest rates, where you have the
idea that, hey, a secondTrump term would mean tax cuts, which
(04:04):
would be a creative to you know, corporate earnings and things like that,
so you'd have you know, stockspotentially doing well. But on the other
hand, a widening deficit, afurther widening deficit, which you know,
could put some pressure on interest ratesto move up there. So I think
those have been kind of the twomain components as I see it. The
third, I guess you could lumpin there in some of what we've seen
(04:25):
the last week and a half,but again, the timing doesn't really click
in that, Hey, if theUS economy is going to be stronger because
of tax cuts, you know,leading to more economic growth, then in
that case, your small cap stockswouldn't necessarily be hit as badly, but
higher interest rates would hit them.So I think the last week and a
half has been much more about thereally cool CPI that we got again and
(04:47):
the Fed cutting interest rates more thanwhat's going on in the presidency. And
this is all caveated by the factthat if you try to look for stories
and markets on a daily basis,you're always gonna be able to make one
up. But that doesn't mean thatit means any Yeah, I guess here's
where I would point out my concernthat there was really any true Trump trade.
Here the S and P five hundredsince June twenty seventh, which we
(05:10):
just defined as a bit of aturning point for poles on, it's up
less than a half a percent.The yield on the ten year treasury.
Right, if we're talking about spendingand reaction to inflation and interest rates,
the year on the ten year treasuryon June twenty seventh closed at four point
two eight eight. We're now atfour point two one eight. Yields are
(05:31):
down slightly since that. We sawa quick one time bump, you know,
on July first, the yield onthe ten year went up to almost
four or five, But since theneverything has moderated and changed, and so
I can again paint a picture hereand and understand why people are putting an
idea behind a Trump trade or aor a Biden trade, or now a
(05:55):
Harris trade. But I would reallychallenge the premise that any of those would
play out for any thing more thana couple of days. Quite honestly,
the time to talk about a presidentialelections impact on markets starts somewhere around Labor
Day. I know that it's notpopular because everyone always it has to always
(06:16):
be the most important thing, butright now it's not well. And furthermore,
I mean there's going to be pieces. There are pieces already written.
You know, there's one from wherelike what is today? What is the
Harris economy going to be? It'slike, how the heck am I going
to know what the Harris economy wouldbe? Right? You know? Could
it be more progressive? And whatdoes that mean for green energy stocks?
(06:39):
Well? I don't know, butgo look at what it meant for green
energy stocks under the Biden administration,who passed the single largest bill on green
energy investment in our nation's history.It hasn't meant much. So I think
all of these things are clearly impactful. They are clearly impactful on the makeup
(06:59):
of our car and what sort oflaws get passed, and whether they are
more regulation or less in the wayof regulation. All of these things do
have impacts. But just be really, really, I don't know, hesitant
or skeptical about someone settling you onan investment thesis of what's going to perform
(07:21):
well or poorly based on any ofthe events over the last four weeks four
months before the election actually happens.Right, No, less right, you
know it's again, so much canchange like again, right now you are
going to have at least one differentcandidate who is running. Who knows what
the next one hundred and five dayslook like. I think we all need
(07:43):
a little bit of humility after thelast month in ascribing certainty to anything related
to this race, because I'll raisemy hand and look, this might make
me sound dumb. I don't knowwhat's in store for the next twelve weeks.
I have no idea how this isgoing to play out. There.
There are any one of a millionscenarios and none of us know exactly what
(08:09):
is going to occur. Because here'swhat I will tell you if if you
correctly predicted the last four weeks beforeit happened. First of all, First
of all, there's something really wrongwith you, yeah, because that's that's
hard to like to nail that,you know, it's there's there's a lot
of bingo that you gotta play toget that right. Beyond that, Okay,
(08:33):
even if you did get the lastfour weeks exactly right, Like you're
sitting there on June twenty second andyou say, Okay, Biden's gonna you
know, basically be half asleep duringhis debate. He's gonna face pressure to
resign. He's gonna resign, youknow, in late July then and throw
his weight behind Harris. Okay,even if you exactly nail that, did
(08:56):
you have the attempted assassination attempt ofDonald Trump last weekend? It's these things
are just inherently unpredictable. And thisis why I say, from a market
perspective, there still is too longto go before we get to the election
to say that anything's really moving thingsdefinitively. In my opinion, I'll give
(09:18):
Chuck a little credit where credit's due. I'm not sure if we can pull
the tape from like three or fouryears ago. But at one point in
the last four years, I rememberChuck distinctly predicting that Joe Biden would not
be the next candidate for president fora number of or would I think you
said he would not be the nextpresident regardless of whether or not Donald Trump
(09:39):
is which I thought was for twentyfour Yeah, I don't remember saying that,
but I'll take credit for I distinctlyremember it, and I'll try and
remember the context of it, butI distinctly remember that prediction from Chuck.
So, Tucker, can you goback through it looks like shows. Can
you go back through the thousand showsfrom the last four Yeah, you know,
(10:01):
it only takes five minutes. It'stwo thousand hours, which is if
you do that, Tucker's that's aforty hour work week for the next year.
Now, so you'll find it bythis time next year, in addition
to doing the job that you're alreadydoing perfect. I'll just sad my rumbo,
raise my kids. It's fine,there's an AI for that. Now,
let's take a quick break here.When we come back, are we
(10:24):
going to actually try to analyze theHarris economy? Okay, Instead, let's
talk a little bit about earnings andthe rotation that we are seeing in stock
markets that is kind of wild andkind of cool. We'll talk a little
bit about that when we return.There's only one show that follows well Street's
(10:45):
continued volatility. Keep it here allmorning long on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Like our page and stay up
to date on breaking business news allmorning long. Base is the Financial Exchange
Radio Network. This segment of theFinancial Exchange is bart to in part by
(11:05):
the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism. The US Virgin Islands is the perfect
destination for your next vacation. EnjoySaint Croix, Saint Thomas, or Saint
John. Enjoy pristine beaches, worldclass dining, and fall naturally in rhythm
with the heartbeat of the Islands.There's no passport required or money to exchange.
Go to visit USBI dot com andbook your trip today. That's visit
(11:30):
USBI dot com. All right,So a little bit of earnings chatter as
we head into the week. We'vegot a couple of big names that are
going to be reporting earnings this week. A lot of what really are large
companies, but they almost get classifiedas mid size now just because of how
big big tech is. Today's prettyquiet. You had Verizon before the bell.
(11:56):
Other than that, it's just youknow, a bunch of names.
I don't think any and really looksat you know, Simpson Manufacturing and says,
oh, this is a big onefor the US economy. But tomorrow
after the bell, you've got Google, Tesla, and Visa. Between the
three of them, you're talking youknow, three point two trillion dollars in
market cap. And can you realizecan you believe that Visa is a five
(12:20):
hundred billion dollar company now? Kindof can? With their I mean,
what do they have like sixty percentof the US credit card marketers. I
still remember when they iPod. Iwas working in New York back in two
thousand and eight as an intern atthe time, and I remember the amount
of hype about the Visa IPO.Here's the thing, even with sixty percent
of that market, they're gonna dolike thirty billion dollars in revenue this year.
(12:41):
So five hundred billion dollar valuation seemsa little hefty, but it's neither
here nor There'll be seeing a lotof them over the next few weeks.
For other reasons. Yeah boom,I see the Olympic theme, right,
yeah, ah yeah, it startswas it Thursday or Friday? This week?
Friday is the opening ceremony, andI believe that Visa once again has
(13:01):
a ton of advertising but also theexclusive credit card at the Olympic. It's
everywhere you want to be express.I don't know. Coca Cola also reports
on Tuesday, but finally enough fornot really even mentioning them because their market
cap is like two hundred and eightybillion, and that's just well, and
you know what you're gonna see,it's gonna be okay. Our sequential growth
was you know, one to threepercent. Margins are being pressured by you
(13:24):
know, tough consumer blah blah blah, currency weakness, et cetera. The
ones that are going to really matterhere Alphabet, Tesla, Visa, and
I guess you could even throw TexasInstruments who reports then just as a general
you know, state of the semiconductorindustry as well. But this is something
where the last week or so hasreally pressured, you know, those magnificent
(13:45):
seven names that have been driving alot of the upward market activity in markets
over the last year. If youlook at the one year performance on mag
seven, Microsoft up and again thisis one year as of right now,
Microsoft up twenty eight percent, andvidiaoup one hundred and sixty seven, Apple
up seventeen, Google fifty three,Meta sixty one, Amazon forty one,
(14:07):
and Tesla. Where the heck areyou hiding? Tesla's actually down five point
seventy four percent, believe it ornot over the last year. Now,
the one week performance on those names, Microsoft down two three seven and Vidia
down five and a quarter, Appledown three, Google down three, Amazon
down four, Tesla down two.Okay, there's been a lot of red
(14:28):
there and the rest of the markethas been, you know, kind of
rotated into so so speaking of thatrotation, just for a moment, I
looked at when the NASDAC peaked,which was July tenth, and this is
what people are talking about in termsof this rotation. So since then,
the Nasdaq h price return was downfour nine to four. As of Friday,
the Dow was up one and ahalf thereabouts one point four, and
(14:50):
the Russell was up six and ahalf. That Russell Nasdaq shift is this
big thing that everybody's talking about,and you now have a eleven percent divergence
in terms of which direction they've gonein this really two week period. Wouldn't
it be wild? And it justto you know, on a related note,
wouldn't it be wild if this whoknows where this goes over the next
(15:13):
month or two, But wouldn't itbe wild if the peak in tech,
you know, specifically the Nasdaq endsup being a really cool inflation report because
that came out the morning of theeleventh, before the eleventh started trading.
Wouldn't it just be It would bea complete reversal of Do you remember the
end of twenty twenty two? InOctober we got an inflation print, a
(15:35):
CPI print that was fire, justlike really really hot, and that marked
the bottom of markets from the bearmarket of twenty twenty two, that hot
inflation print. We just rallied basicallyever since then a year and a half
ago. Wouldn't it be just kindof this poetic, you know movement if
hey, what was it zero onthe inflation report? It was negative point
(15:58):
one headline and point one core.And if you go back to look at
the October data and look at Octobertwenty two, not even twenty three,
but October of twenty two. Theheadline number that we got there was point
five to one, and the corethat we got there was hang on,
(16:19):
I'm just pulling it back up becauseI do remember it was very roasty.
The core that we got was pointthree to six, so rounded two point
four, and that was the bottomin markets because they just rallied from there.
Wouldn't it be this you know,kind of bookend here on this one
and a half year period if youget this really cool inflation report and it
(16:40):
ends up marking some kind of youknow, short the intermediate term top in
markets, because I don't think it'sthe top forever, you know, likely
not. I have a feeling thateventually stocks might move beyond there, but
you know, who knows. Sothere's been this interesting rotation, as you
mentioned, a couple massive names inmarkets going this week. The following week,
we will hear from Microsoft, We'llhear from Meta as well Master Cards.
(17:03):
So you've got another you know,four trillion dollars plus of market capitalization
reporting next week into this, youknow again, this pivot that has occurred
in a shift away from the techheavy high flyers of this year and into
some other areas. And the questionis that everyone is asking, is this
(17:23):
marking some sort of longer term rotation, some just quick pulling back and taking
some profits, or something some newtrend entirely And I don't Again, with
these types of things, everyone likesto attribute a cause, everyone likes to
a tribute some some sort of humanquality to what's happened in markets over the
(17:45):
last a few weeks, and sometimesit's not really all that noble, and
you can't really point to any oneitem. Yeah, this, Ultimately,
you won't know if this really meansanything until a year from now, because
we've seen that we've seen smaller versionsof this happened in the last year two
(18:06):
where again not to this extent,but hey, the rustle's outperforming. Does
this mean that you know? Small? Any answer? The last year and
a half has been well, no, Ultimately, it wasn't something that mattered,
could it this time? It could? But tell me why, like,
give me something behind it, AndI don't not even tell me why,
Like prove it. And the onlyway to prove it is to let
(18:29):
it actually play out, you know, with with markets that the thing you
have to remember about markets the pricesthat they're showing at any point in time,
are just probabilities expressed through price.That's all it is. It's it's
not hey, this is one hundredpercent gonna happen, because if it were,
then markets would never change. You'realways seeing, you know, markets
trying to digest, hey, whatare the probabilities of x, y and
(18:52):
z happening? And sometimes instead ofx y and z happening, ab or
C does and it's like, oh, we've got it. We didn't even
think of that. We've got tocompletely reprice this because hey, it wasn't
priced in. As an example,see the last week and a half.
If everyone knew that small caps wouldrally, they would have rallied before.
So they are things that are offyour bingo card or just very you know
(19:14):
priced is very low probabilities that becomereality, and that's how prices actually change
in markets. Let's take a quickbreak here, and when we return,
we've got Wall Street Watch, andthen we're talking about the current update on
the CrowdStrike fiasco fiasco and how it'saffecting markets and businesses. Like us on
(19:44):
Facebook and follow us on Twitter atTFE show. Breaking business news is always
first right here on the Financial ExchangeRadio Network. Time Now for Wall Street.
Watch a complete look at what's movingmarkets so far today right here on
the Financial Exchange Radio network. Marketsaren't positive territory to start the week,
(20:07):
as Wall Street digests yesterday's breaking newsof President Biden dropping out of the upcoming
election. Traders are also reading fora busy week of second quarter earnings,
with major names reporting, including alphabetTesla, Visa, and Coca Cola.
Right now, the Dow is upby about a quarter percent or ninety one
points, SMP five hundreds up overthree quarters of a percent or forty six
(20:30):
points in the NASDAC up over onepercent, trading in two or two hundred
and twenty seven points. Russell twothousand is only off by a quarter percent.
Ten year treas are reeled down bytwo basis points at four point two
to one percent, and crude oildown about half a percent, trading just
below eighty dollars a barrel after plungingon Friday eleven percent. Shares and CrowdStrike
(20:53):
down another ten percent today after Guggenheimdowngraded the stock to neutral from buy,
where the financial firm said CrowdStrike isunlikely to emerge unscathed from the global tech
outage. We all saw on Friday. Meanwhile, Verizon reported mixed second quarter
results ahead of the open meeting earningsexpectations, but missing on revenue. The
(21:14):
telecom company did, however, addtwo hundred and eighteen thousand consumer subscribers in
the quarter, seven point four percenthigher than the previous quarter that stocked down
by six percent. Elsewhere, filingfrom Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway revealed that the
company sold thirty three point nine millionshares of Bank of America FROMOST one and
(21:37):
a half billion dollars. Bank ofAmerica shares are down by about one percent.
Abercrombie and Fitch shares are up twopercent after the retailer was upgraded by
JP Morgan to overweight from neutral,citing strong demand for the brand after improvements
in marketing over the years. AndApple up about one percent after Wells Fargo
(21:57):
upped its price turn get to twohundred and seventy five dollars per share ahead
of its second quarter earnings due outnext week. Wells Fargo said it expects
Apple intelligence will drive a significant upgradecycle for the iPhone maker. I'm Tucker
Silvan, that's Wall Street watch.So last Friday, many of you awoke
(22:19):
and saw nothing worked, then alot of stuff connected to the Internet not
really going well that day. Ifyou had things that weren't connected to the
Internet, like a lawnmower or acouch or a piece of paper, those
were largely unaffected. But if youwere trying to move money from a credit
card, if you were trying toaccess a brokerage account, have a medical
(22:42):
procedure, fly anywhere, anything thatrequires some connectivity to a computer. Hell,
even some things that we don't evenusually associate with computer connectivity, like
a newscast on TV, which obviouslyis heavily connected to associated with I know,
but liked you know, with cableit's not the traditional thing I think
(23:03):
of with an Internet outage, ofsure cable TV programs or news programs not
being able to report the news,but they too heavily impacted by this outage
on Friday. So what are weseeing as the week starts anew and now
it's Monday, three days later,you still have some problems here and there.
Not directly, not because computers arenecessarily still locked out and mass because
(23:30):
of this CrowdStrike issue. But hey, it takes a while to dig out
of this what I can tell you, if you know anyone in it,
give them a hug today because they'velikely been working around the clock over the
weekend. It's been a really toughyou know, seventy two hours in terms
of trying to get everything back tofunctioning. But one of the areas that
we're seeing the most lingering impact isin air travel, specifically Delta. In
(23:56):
this case, Hey, the Roulettewheel came up then a couple of years
ago, so it was southwest withall of the ice storms that came through
their hubs in Texas this week,it's Delta because I guess they have an
outsize reliance on CrowdStrike and so ittook a while a to get their systems
back up and b trying to getpilots in equipment to the locations that you
(24:18):
need them. It takes five orsix days to unwind that kind of problem
when you have a schedule that's basedon you know, efficiency of minutes in
some cases to get pilots from pointA to point B. Yeah, I
think everybody has probably been impacted orheard of somebody impacted at some point by
the plane had a mechanical issue andoh sorry, your flight crew timed out
(24:41):
of their hours because they can nolonger work, or your pilots did,
and we have to fly in anew crew from yep, Topeka whatever.
It always it's always Topeka. Thisis you know, on steroids what Delta
is experiencing now. So through theweekend Friday, Saturday, and Sunday,
according to the Wall Street Journal,you had a totalist not just Delta flights,
but I assume they are a largeportion of them. More than seven
(25:03):
thousand flights canceled Friday, Saturday andSunday. As of seven am this morning,
you had six hundred additional Delta onlyflights that had already been canceled.
Today we probably are a higher numbernow that it's a few hours beyond that.
For points of comparison, according tothe Department of Transportation, which finds
Southwest a few years ago, they'retwenty twenty two Christmas blow up resulted in
(25:26):
sixteen nine hundred flights being canceled andtwo million passengers being stranded during that period
of time. So just contextualizing someof this, this is a pretty significant
blow up. But across all USairlines appeared to be seven thousand flight cancelations
over the weekend. So that's wherethings stand as of today. And I
do want to talk then about thispiece from the Wall Street Journal. Its
(25:49):
headline is blue screens Everywhere, ourlatest tech woe for Microsoft. Microsoft is
really getting caught up in like somejust in all of this here where I
don't think they're at fault in anyway, shape or form. Like Microsoft
did not cause this. Microsoft didnot do anything to make this worse.
(26:12):
It just is, Hey, youhad a vendor that built a program that
accesses the core of your operating systemand they mass pushed an update without testing
it appropriately. And that's on them, not on Microsoft. In my opinion,
I can't believe I'm defending Microsoft here, but this is like they didn't
(26:33):
do anything to cause this. Sowhat do you make of the critique from
I don't know that anyone at Applethemselves has made this or lobbed this one,
But hey, you know, Appleis much more of a closed system
that wouldn't have allowed this type ofupdate to go through based on their security
settings and systems, where it's farmore controlled than the more open architecture of
(26:57):
Microsoft's own systems. So you're willingto pay forty to sixty percent premium for
that, But you do believe thatthat might that ecosystem might have prevented this,
because I think it's a very hardmaybe on this, because it's not
as though Apple does not allow systemupdates from third parties. It just tries
to police them a little bit better. Sure, nothing to say that this
(27:21):
couldn't have impacted Apple systems, Itjust didn't this time. I don't think
there's any huge difference between the potentialvulnerability. It's just hey, would it
have been caught? Maybe, ButI don't think again, the fact that
this happened here you know again,people are gonna say, oh, like
this is like this is a hugeproblem. This can't ever happen again,
(27:42):
And first of all, with CrowdStrike, odds are probably won't because when you
have something like this that does happen, do you know how many sets of
eyes their updates are going to haveto go through now before they push that
button that says, you know,send to user. Hopefully more than the
sets of eyes on Boeing products.Correct. Okay, But the other piece
(28:06):
is, and the thing that Ithink we forget on this is it's not
like this happens every day. Wehave literally never seen anything like this before
this scale, and so the ideathat hey, this is a problem that
we all need to really address,and no, I'm not going to change
my life because of this. I'mnot going to change my devices because of
(28:30):
this. Probably not Yeah, quickword of caution for probably more the small
business owner and user out there.Crowd Strike themselves came out with a warning
that some bad actors are trying toexploit the event. By course, as
they always would, but this specificbad action is attempting to get out there
(28:52):
a quick fix to the problem.And what's been what I've heard is like,
if you are Bank of America,you have your own internal IT team
that's been working around the clock tomake sure you're up and running, Whereas
if you don't and you're reliant ona third party, that it's when we
get around to you. So they, yeah, bad actors are putting out
(29:14):
this file that's apparently going to bea quick fix to the problem. The
file named CrowdStrike dash hotfix dot zipwas being distributed that include malware enabling hackers
to remotely controlled and monitor users device, which again, hopefully you wouldn't fall
victim to a crowd strike outage andthen fall victim to a malware hack,
but not terribly surprised. When peopleare in desperate measures to get something back
(29:37):
up and running. Is typically whetherit's you know, the eighty five year
old retiree who's being taken advantage ofor the corporate CEO that's under pressure to
get things quickly back up and running. Well, I guess the question is
too, I do wonder how wellit would like that approach would work for
the hackers, because if your computer'sblue screen of death, you can't download
(30:00):
the malware onto the computer because youcan't active, you can't open it.
Yeah, good point. Like itwould clearly be targeting someone who is not
tech savvy at all, because ifyou're actually impacted by this, you can't
access your computer. Yeah. Soif you're just getting random emails about hey,
(30:21):
are you impacted by the CrowdStrike thing, and you can read them on
your computer, then you are notimpacted by the CrowdStrike thing at this point.
Yeah, it's a fair summary.So don't do anything then, or
talk to your IT people, andthat's what they're there for. Quick break
here. When we come back,talk a little bit about the job market
and where it stands as we headinto kind of the third quarter of labor
(30:45):
market data that's going to be comingout in the next week or so.
Miss any of the show. TheFinancial Exchange Show podcast is available on Apple,
Spotify, and iHeartRadio. Hit thesubscribe button and leave us a five
star review. This is the FinancialExchange Radio Network. Text us six one
seven, three six two thirteen eightyfive with your comments and questions about today's
(31:08):
show and let us know what youthink about the stories we are covering.
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. ZIP Recruiter released their second quarter Job
(31:30):
Seeker Confidence Index data. Raise yourhand if you knew that was the thing
before today. No one hears raisingtheir hands, and I'm guessing that no
one who's listening to us is raisingtheir hands either, aside from the three
ZIP Recruiter people who are obviously listening. But the index found that their number
measuring job seeker confidence was ninety threepoint one, which is down from a
(31:53):
first quarter reading of ninety eight pointnine. Now I don't know how to
reflect what that number means, butwhat it is, it's the lowest job
seecret confidence data that we've seen inthe last two years, and here's how
they're Chief economist Julia Pollak expresses thisquote, the US labor market remains strong
(32:14):
in the aggregate, but conditions cooledsubstantially in most industries over the past quarter.
Job seekers sat up and noticed.So it seems to me that this
is still a labor market that istight by historical standards, but nowhere near
as easy to find a job nowas it has been in the last couple
of years. And in some industriesit's getting significantly harder to find jobs days.
(32:38):
So there is some real weakening that'shappening in the labor market right now.
Yeah, and you can see thatwhether you take the ZipRecruiter data or
whether you just look at you know, publicly published government data on the state
of labor market in terms of jobopenings and folks looking for work, the
UPTIC and the unemployment rate on thisone survey. I gotta tell you,
(32:58):
I'm on the zipprecruiter website. Isee data only going back to the first
quarter of twenty twenty two, sotough to contextualize what this acting like.
Yeah, obviously the labor market isnot as strong as it was in twenty
twenty three. That's about all Ithink you can conclude here. I don't
think you can go so far asto say, well, what does this
tell you about this compared to twentyeighteen or twenty eleven, And that's that's
(33:22):
the more interesting comparison in my viewright now, because we all know that
twenty twenty three was nuts in termsof job offers and raises and bonuses and
anything to do with finding a joband staying in a job. A couple
other just interesting data points from thisthat again don't tell us anything about what's
going to happen in the future,but just about how people are, you
(33:42):
know, expressing what they want outof a job now. The survey found
that the median desired time until startdate was three and a half weeks in
the second quarter, down from sevenand a half weeks in the fourth quarter.
So you'd think, what does thatactually mean, Hey, why does
someone want to start sooner? That'sprobably because they feel, you know,
some financial pressure to start sooner,and so I do think that that's something
meaningful you can take from this aswell. Changes to Medicaid occur almost every
(34:07):
year, and if you're not informed, your assets could be at risk,
especially if you or your spouse neednursing home care. Cushing and Dolan are
experts in elder law, and theirnew guide is called Last Minute Medicaid Eligibility.
It'll help you understand the Medicaid process, which is critically important if you're
retired or getting close to retiring.The god has important information regarding numerous strategies
(34:32):
that can protect your assets from thenursing home. It could be your primary
home, of vacation home, orany rental property you may own. You've
worked hard to achieve wealth, sodon't take chances when it comes to protecting
it. Get your copy of CushingDolan's brand new guide called Last Minute Medicaid
Eligibility call eight six six eight foureight five six nine nine. That's eight
(34:55):
six six eight four eight five sixnine nine, or you can request it
from their website Legal exchange show dotcom. The proceeding was paid for and
the views expressed are solely those ofCushing and Dolan. Cushing and Dolan and
or Armstrong Advisory may contact you offeringlegal or investment services. Cushing and Armstrong
did not endorse each other and arenot affiliated. Headline The Boston Globe Today
(35:17):
Massachusetts moves closer to mandating employers disclosedsalary ranges on job postings. I'll quote
here that this would require employers withtwenty five full time employees or more to
disclose salary ranges on their job postingsand protecting employees right to ask for salary
ranges in the workplace. Mike,your thoughts wouldn't be the first state to
(35:37):
go about doing this. No,New York a couple right, Colorado,
Colorado, I believe did. NewYork did as well, and specifically in
both of those states. If youI think have any presence in those locations,
or if the person could hypothetically workremotely in those locations, then you
have to. And in fact,if you look at some remote jobs,
(35:59):
they at least initially we're being postedas available to work in any location other
than Colorado when that one was initiallypublished. A few more liberal leaning states
are going this direction. Companies don'tlike it. They like negotiating in those
hiring meetings and not having the exactranges out there. But does anybody look
(36:20):
at, you know, New YorkCity jobs and say, oh man,
those businesses really can't find anybody tohire, or look how burdensome is they're
going to be moving out of NewYork City with their with their company because
they have to disclose the pay rangeson their jobs. It's uh, I
don't think it's the most burdensome regulationthat I've seen out there. No,
(36:42):
Look, it's it's miles ahead ofCalifornia with it's you know, hey,
this industry gets this minimum wage andthis one gets that. This is something
where look, quite honestly, howmuch time do you spend you know,
you meet with a candidate and you'relike, oh, this is gonna go
great, and then you're like,here's the salary range, and you just
hear the audible oh right. Youknow, like, to me, this
(37:05):
is one I don't know that it'sa necessary regulation. It is just another
layer on there of stuff that needsto be in there. I know why
they're doing it. A lot ofit has to do with pay discrepancies and
you know, tendencies for men tonegotiate more on wages than women have historically,
and there's been plenty of studies thathave sure proven this out. So
you know, I won't really takea position on that side of things,
(37:28):
but I just look at this andsay companies are afraid of it initially,
and then once they do it.It's probably one of those things that was
not nearly as big a deal asyou previously thought. It doesn't add any
cost to your overall structure. Itdoesn't add any changes to you know,
meaningfully, how you go and recruitotherwise. No, it's it's one of
(37:49):
those things where if it exists,you'll do it, and it won't really
take you more time or effort.If it doesn't exist, you won't do
it. It'll be basically the same. I just I'm not sure that there's
anything meaningful in either way. Ialso wouldn't plan on it changing the world.
No, probably not not gonna havethat meaningful of an impact. It's
(38:10):
I don't think it's anything to getvery excited about or very upset about it.
I think it's probably just kind ofone of those things that you won't
even really notice as we go downthe road. Quick break here, We've
got more financial exchange coming up ina little bit
The Financial Exchanges produced by Money MattersRadio and is hosted by employees of the
Armstrong Advisory Group, a registered investmentadvisor that provides investment advisory services. All
opinions expressed are solely those of thehosts, do not reflect the opinions of
Armstrong Advisory or anyone else, anddo not guarantee profit. Investments can lose
money. This program does not offerany specific financial or investment advice. Please
(00:21):
consult your own financial, tax,and estate planning advisors before making any investment
decisions. Armstrong and Money Matters Radiodo not compensate each other for referrals and
are not affiliated. This is theFinancial Exchange, with Chuck Zada and Mike
Armstrong, your exclusive look at businessand financial news affecting your day, your
(00:42):
city, your world. Stay informedand up to date about economic and market
trends plus breaking business news every day. The Financial Exchange is a proud partner
of the Disabled American Veterans Department ofMassachusetts. Help us support our great American
heroes by visiting DAV five K Bostonand making a donation today. The DAV
(01:03):
five K Boston is presented by VeteransDevelopment Corporation. This is the Financial Exchange
with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong.Hope y'all had a fantastic weekend. Is
Chuck, Mike and Tucker with youhere today, and big story that we're
gonna start with the obvious shake upin the US presidential race with Joe Biden
(01:23):
dropping out of the race over theweekend and the presumptive favorite to when the
Democrat nomination now is Kamala Harris.I say presumptive because well, for a
few reasons. The first is,as we've seen over the last four weeks,
a lot can change pretty darn quicklyin this race four weeks ago.
(01:48):
You go back to mid June,you know, a week before the debate,
and betting markets, which I thinkare they're not accurate, but they
at least give you a general proxyof what you know, markets are thinking
and what people are thinking. Said, yeah, former President Trump has a
slight edge over President Biden to winthe race. Immediately after the debate,
(02:10):
everyone kind of woke up and saidthat slight edge is probably a large edge
because that was not a good debateperformance by Joe Biden. And so very
quickly, I think you went fromkind of like a fifty five percent probability
of Trump winning up to sixty fiveseventy is what I've seen in a number
of places. And from there youthen continue on and a week ago then
(02:35):
you had an attempted assassination of DonaldTrump, and then this weekend you had
Joe Biden drop out of the presidentialrace. So there's been one Monday where
we haven't had like first of itskind type oh it is to share.
A lot can change quickly, andthis is why, quite honestly, it's
(02:57):
really too early to still be talkingabout the pre presidential election with any degree
of certainty, confidence or like theidea that we have any idea what's going
to happen, because there still isa long long way to go. There's
one hundred and five days to goto this point. To that end,
the CNBC article that we have tocover today is you know that markets could
(03:19):
unwind the Trump trade after Biden dropsout of the presidential race. Can we
do away with the notion that therewas any form of Trump trade? There
was some I'm going to disagree there, and I don't think it's where people
were looking though. And what Imean by that is the last week and
a half of what we've seen inmarkets has been in no way related to
the presidential election because a it startedon a Wednesday, but like and none
(03:43):
of the big news has happened onWednesdays in the last month. B.
I think that when you look at, you know, the idea of,
hey, what is the Trump trade, it's it's been concentrated in two areas,
in my opinion. The first isinterest rates, where you have the
idea that, hey, a secondTrump term would mean tax cuts, which
(04:04):
would be a creative to you know, corporate earnings and things like that,
so you'd have you know, stockspotentially doing well. But on the other
hand, a widening deficit, afurther widening deficit, which you know,
could put some pressure on interest ratesto move up there. So I think
those have been kind of the twomain components as I see it. The
third, I guess you could lumpin there in some of what we've seen
(04:25):
the last week and a half,but again, the timing doesn't really click
in that, Hey, if theUS economy is going to be stronger because
of tax cuts, you know,leading to more economic growth, then in
that case, your small cap stockswouldn't necessarily be hit as badly, but
higher interest rates would hit them.So I think the last week and a
half has been much more about thereally cool CPI that we got again and
(04:47):
the Fed cutting interest rates more thanwhat's going on in the presidency. And
this is all caveated by the factthat if you try to look for stories
and markets on a daily basis,you're always gonna be able to make one
up. But that doesn't mean thatit means any Yeah, I guess here's
where I would point out my concernthat there was really any true Trump trade.
Here the S and P five hundredsince June twenty seventh, which we
(05:10):
just defined as a bit of aturning point for poles on, it's up
less than a half a percent.The yield on the ten year treasury.
Right, if we're talking about spendingand reaction to inflation and interest rates,
the year on the ten year treasuryon June twenty seventh closed at four point
two eight eight. We're now atfour point two one eight. Yields are
(05:31):
down slightly since that. We sawa quick one time bump, you know,
on July first, the yield onthe ten year went up to almost
four or five, But since theneverything has moderated and changed, and so
I can again paint a picture hereand and understand why people are putting an
idea behind a Trump trade or aor a Biden trade, or now a
(05:55):
Harris trade. But I would reallychallenge the premise that any of those would
play out for any thing more thana couple of days. Quite honestly,
the time to talk about a presidentialelections impact on markets starts somewhere around Labor
Day. I know that it's notpopular because everyone always it has to always
(06:16):
be the most important thing, butright now it's not well. And furthermore,
I mean there's going to be pieces. There are pieces already written.
You know, there's one from wherelike what is today? What is the
Harris economy going to be? It'slike, how the heck am I going
to know what the Harris economy wouldbe? Right? You know? Could
it be more progressive? And whatdoes that mean for green energy stocks?
(06:39):
Well? I don't know, butgo look at what it meant for green
energy stocks under the Biden administration,who passed the single largest bill on green
energy investment in our nation's history.It hasn't meant much. So I think
all of these things are clearly impactful. They are clearly impactful on the makeup
(06:59):
of our car and what sort oflaws get passed, and whether they are
more regulation or less in the wayof regulation. All of these things do
have impacts. But just be really, really, I don't know, hesitant
or skeptical about someone settling you onan investment thesis of what's going to perform
(07:21):
well or poorly based on any ofthe events over the last four weeks four
months before the election actually happens.Right, No, less right, you
know it's again, so much canchange like again, right now you are
going to have at least one differentcandidate who is running. Who knows what
the next one hundred and five dayslook like. I think we all need
(07:43):
a little bit of humility after thelast month in ascribing certainty to anything related
to this race, because I'll raisemy hand and look, this might make
me sound dumb. I don't knowwhat's in store for the next twelve weeks.
I have no idea how this isgoing to play out. There.
There are any one of a millionscenarios and none of us know exactly what
(08:09):
is going to occur. Because here'swhat I will tell you if if you
correctly predicted the last four weeks beforeit happened. First of all, First
of all, there's something really wrongwith you, yeah, because that's that's
hard to like to nail that,you know, it's there's there's a lot
of bingo that you gotta play toget that right. Beyond that, Okay,
(08:33):
even if you did get the lastfour weeks exactly right, Like you're
sitting there on June twenty second andyou say, Okay, Biden's gonna you
know, basically be half asleep duringhis debate. He's gonna face pressure to
resign. He's gonna resign, youknow, in late July then and throw
his weight behind Harris. Okay,even if you exactly nail that, did
(08:56):
you have the attempted assassination attempt ofDonald Trump last weekend? It's these things
are just inherently unpredictable. And thisis why I say, from a market
perspective, there still is too longto go before we get to the election
to say that anything's really moving thingsdefinitively. In my opinion, I'll give
(09:18):
Chuck a little credit where credit's due. I'm not sure if we can pull
the tape from like three or fouryears ago. But at one point in
the last four years, I rememberChuck distinctly predicting that Joe Biden would not
be the next candidate for president fora number of or would I think you
said he would not be the nextpresident regardless of whether or not Donald Trump
(09:39):
is which I thought was for twentyfour Yeah, I don't remember saying that,
but I'll take credit for I distinctlyremember it, and I'll try and
remember the context of it, butI distinctly remember that prediction from Chuck.
So, Tucker, can you goback through it looks like shows. Can
you go back through the thousand showsfrom the last four Yeah, you know,
(10:01):
it only takes five minutes. It'stwo thousand hours, which is if
you do that, Tucker's that's aforty hour work week for the next year.
Now, so you'll find it bythis time next year, in addition
to doing the job that you're alreadydoing perfect. I'll just sad my rumbo,
raise my kids. It's fine,there's an AI for that. Now,
let's take a quick break here.When we come back, are we
(10:24):
going to actually try to analyze theHarris economy? Okay, Instead, let's
talk a little bit about earnings andthe rotation that we are seeing in stock
markets that is kind of wild andkind of cool. We'll talk a little
bit about that when we return.There's only one show that follows well Street's
(10:45):
continued volatility. Keep it here allmorning long on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Like our page and stay up
to date on breaking business news allmorning long. Base is the Financial Exchange
Radio Network. This segment of theFinancial Exchange is bart to in part by
(11:05):
the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism. The US Virgin Islands is the perfect
destination for your next vacation. EnjoySaint Croix, Saint Thomas, or Saint
John. Enjoy pristine beaches, worldclass dining, and fall naturally in rhythm
with the heartbeat of the Islands.There's no passport required or money to exchange.
Go to visit USBI dot com andbook your trip today. That's visit
(11:30):
USBI dot com. All right,So a little bit of earnings chatter as
we head into the week. We'vegot a couple of big names that are
going to be reporting earnings this week. A lot of what really are large
companies, but they almost get classifiedas mid size now just because of how
big big tech is. Today's prettyquiet. You had Verizon before the bell.
(11:56):
Other than that, it's just youknow, a bunch of names.
I don't think any and really looksat you know, Simpson Manufacturing and says,
oh, this is a big onefor the US economy. But tomorrow
after the bell, you've got Google, Tesla, and Visa. Between the
three of them, you're talking youknow, three point two trillion dollars in
market cap. And can you realizecan you believe that Visa is a five
(12:20):
hundred billion dollar company now? Kindof can? With their I mean,
what do they have like sixty percentof the US credit card marketers. I
still remember when they iPod. Iwas working in New York back in two
thousand and eight as an intern atthe time, and I remember the amount
of hype about the Visa IPO.Here's the thing, even with sixty percent
of that market, they're gonna dolike thirty billion dollars in revenue this year.
(12:41):
So five hundred billion dollar valuation seemsa little hefty, but it's neither
here nor There'll be seeing a lotof them over the next few weeks.
For other reasons. Yeah boom,I see the Olympic theme, right,
yeah, ah yeah, it startswas it Thursday or Friday? This week?
Friday is the opening ceremony, andI believe that Visa once again has
(13:01):
a ton of advertising but also theexclusive credit card at the Olympic. It's
everywhere you want to be express.I don't know. Coca Cola also reports
on Tuesday, but finally enough fornot really even mentioning them because their market
cap is like two hundred and eightybillion, and that's just well, and
you know what you're gonna see,it's gonna be okay. Our sequential growth
was you know, one to threepercent. Margins are being pressured by you
(13:24):
know, tough consumer blah blah blah, currency weakness, et cetera. The
ones that are going to really matterhere Alphabet, Tesla, Visa, and
I guess you could even throw TexasInstruments who reports then just as a general
you know, state of the semiconductorindustry as well. But this is something
where the last week or so hasreally pressured, you know, those magnificent
(13:45):
seven names that have been driving alot of the upward market activity in markets
over the last year. If youlook at the one year performance on mag
seven, Microsoft up and again thisis one year as of right now,
Microsoft up twenty eight percent, andvidiaoup one hundred and sixty seven, Apple
up seventeen, Google fifty three,Meta sixty one, Amazon forty one,
(14:07):
and Tesla. Where the heck areyou hiding? Tesla's actually down five point
seventy four percent, believe it ornot over the last year. Now,
the one week performance on those names, Microsoft down two three seven and Vidia
down five and a quarter, Appledown three, Google down three, Amazon
down four, Tesla down two.Okay, there's been a lot of red
(14:28):
there and the rest of the markethas been, you know, kind of
rotated into so so speaking of thatrotation, just for a moment, I
looked at when the NASDAC peaked,which was July tenth, and this is
what people are talking about in termsof this rotation. So since then,
the Nasdaq h price return was downfour nine to four. As of Friday,
the Dow was up one and ahalf thereabouts one point four, and
(14:50):
the Russell was up six and ahalf. That Russell Nasdaq shift is this
big thing that everybody's talking about,and you now have a eleven percent divergence
in terms of which direction they've gonein this really two week period. Wouldn't
it be wild? And it justto you know, on a related note,
wouldn't it be wild if this whoknows where this goes over the next
(15:13):
month or two, But wouldn't itbe wild if the peak in tech,
you know, specifically the Nasdaq endsup being a really cool inflation report because
that came out the morning of theeleventh, before the eleventh started trading.
Wouldn't it just be It would bea complete reversal of Do you remember the
end of twenty twenty two? InOctober we got an inflation print, a
(15:35):
CPI print that was fire, justlike really really hot, and that marked
the bottom of markets from the bearmarket of twenty twenty two, that hot
inflation print. We just rallied basicallyever since then a year and a half
ago. Wouldn't it be just kindof this poetic, you know movement if
hey, what was it zero onthe inflation report? It was negative point
(15:58):
one headline and point one core.And if you go back to look at
the October data and look at Octobertwenty two, not even twenty three,
but October of twenty two. Theheadline number that we got there was point
five to one, and the corethat we got there was hang on,
(16:19):
I'm just pulling it back up becauseI do remember it was very roasty.
The core that we got was pointthree to six, so rounded two point
four, and that was the bottomin markets because they just rallied from there.
Wouldn't it be this you know,kind of bookend here on this one
and a half year period if youget this really cool inflation report and it
(16:40):
ends up marking some kind of youknow, short the intermediate term top in
markets, because I don't think it'sthe top forever, you know, likely
not. I have a feeling thateventually stocks might move beyond there, but
you know, who knows. Sothere's been this interesting rotation, as you
mentioned, a couple massive names inmarkets going this week. The following week,
we will hear from Microsoft, We'llhear from Meta as well Master Cards.
(17:03):
So you've got another you know,four trillion dollars plus of market capitalization
reporting next week into this, youknow again, this pivot that has occurred
in a shift away from the techheavy high flyers of this year and into
some other areas. And the questionis that everyone is asking, is this
(17:23):
marking some sort of longer term rotation, some just quick pulling back and taking
some profits, or something some newtrend entirely And I don't Again, with
these types of things, everyone likesto attribute a cause, everyone likes to
a tribute some some sort of humanquality to what's happened in markets over the
(17:45):
last a few weeks, and sometimesit's not really all that noble, and
you can't really point to any oneitem. Yeah, this, Ultimately,
you won't know if this really meansanything until a year from now, because
we've seen that we've seen smaller versionsof this happened in the last year two
(18:06):
where again not to this extent,but hey, the rustle's outperforming. Does
this mean that you know? Small? Any answer? The last year and
a half has been well, no, Ultimately, it wasn't something that mattered,
could it this time? It could? But tell me why, like,
give me something behind it, AndI don't not even tell me why,
Like prove it. And the onlyway to prove it is to let
(18:29):
it actually play out, you know, with with markets that the thing you
have to remember about markets the pricesthat they're showing at any point in time,
are just probabilities expressed through price.That's all it is. It's it's
not hey, this is one hundredpercent gonna happen, because if it were,
then markets would never change. You'realways seeing, you know, markets
trying to digest, hey, whatare the probabilities of x, y and
(18:52):
z happening? And sometimes instead ofx y and z happening, ab or
C does and it's like, oh, we've got it. We didn't even
think of that. We've got tocompletely reprice this because hey, it wasn't
priced in. As an example,see the last week and a half.
If everyone knew that small caps wouldrally, they would have rallied before.
So they are things that are offyour bingo card or just very you know
(19:14):
priced is very low probabilities that becomereality, and that's how prices actually change
in markets. Let's take a quickbreak here, and when we return,
we've got Wall Street Watch, andthen we're talking about the current update on
the CrowdStrike fiasco fiasco and how it'saffecting markets and businesses. Like us on
(19:44):
Facebook and follow us on Twitter atTFE show. Breaking business news is always
first right here on the Financial ExchangeRadio Network. Time Now for Wall Street.
Watch a complete look at what's movingmarkets so far today right here on
the Financial Exchange Radio network. Marketsaren't positive territory to start the week,
(20:07):
as Wall Street digests yesterday's breaking newsof President Biden dropping out of the upcoming
election. Traders are also reading fora busy week of second quarter earnings,
with major names reporting, including alphabetTesla, Visa, and Coca Cola.
Right now, the Dow is upby about a quarter percent or ninety one
points, SMP five hundreds up overthree quarters of a percent or forty six
(20:30):
points in the NASDAC up over onepercent, trading in two or two hundred
and twenty seven points. Russell twothousand is only off by a quarter percent.
Ten year treas are reeled down bytwo basis points at four point two
to one percent, and crude oildown about half a percent, trading just
below eighty dollars a barrel after plungingon Friday eleven percent. Shares and CrowdStrike
(20:53):
down another ten percent today after Guggenheimdowngraded the stock to neutral from buy,
where the financial firm said CrowdStrike isunlikely to emerge unscathed from the global tech
outage. We all saw on Friday. Meanwhile, Verizon reported mixed second quarter
results ahead of the open meeting earningsexpectations, but missing on revenue. The
(21:14):
telecom company did, however, addtwo hundred and eighteen thousand consumer subscribers in
the quarter, seven point four percenthigher than the previous quarter that stocked down
by six percent. Elsewhere, filingfrom Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway revealed that the
company sold thirty three point nine millionshares of Bank of America FROMOST one and
(21:37):
a half billion dollars. Bank ofAmerica shares are down by about one percent.
Abercrombie and Fitch shares are up twopercent after the retailer was upgraded by
JP Morgan to overweight from neutral,citing strong demand for the brand after improvements
in marketing over the years. AndApple up about one percent after Wells Fargo
(21:57):
upped its price turn get to twohundred and seventy five dollars per share ahead
of its second quarter earnings due outnext week. Wells Fargo said it expects
Apple intelligence will drive a significant upgradecycle for the iPhone maker. I'm Tucker
Silvan, that's Wall Street watch.So last Friday, many of you awoke
(22:19):
and saw nothing worked, then alot of stuff connected to the Internet not
really going well that day. Ifyou had things that weren't connected to the
Internet, like a lawnmower or acouch or a piece of paper, those
were largely unaffected. But if youwere trying to move money from a credit
card, if you were trying toaccess a brokerage account, have a medical
(22:42):
procedure, fly anywhere, anything thatrequires some connectivity to a computer. Hell,
even some things that we don't evenusually associate with computer connectivity, like
a newscast on TV, which obviouslyis heavily connected to associated with I know,
but liked you know, with cableit's not the traditional thing I think
(23:03):
of with an Internet outage, ofsure cable TV programs or news programs not
being able to report the news,but they too heavily impacted by this outage
on Friday. So what are weseeing as the week starts anew and now
it's Monday, three days later,you still have some problems here and there.
Not directly, not because computers arenecessarily still locked out and mass because
(23:30):
of this CrowdStrike issue. But hey, it takes a while to dig out
of this what I can tell you, if you know anyone in it,
give them a hug today because they'velikely been working around the clock over the
weekend. It's been a really toughyou know, seventy two hours in terms
of trying to get everything back tofunctioning. But one of the areas that
we're seeing the most lingering impact isin air travel, specifically Delta. In
(23:56):
this case, Hey, the Roulettewheel came up then a couple of years
ago, so it was southwest withall of the ice storms that came through
their hubs in Texas this week,it's Delta because I guess they have an
outsize reliance on CrowdStrike and so ittook a while a to get their systems
back up and b trying to getpilots in equipment to the locations that you
(24:18):
need them. It takes five orsix days to unwind that kind of problem
when you have a schedule that's basedon you know, efficiency of minutes in
some cases to get pilots from pointA to point B. Yeah, I
think everybody has probably been impacted orheard of somebody impacted at some point by
the plane had a mechanical issue andoh sorry, your flight crew timed out
(24:41):
of their hours because they can nolonger work, or your pilots did,
and we have to fly in anew crew from yep, Topeka whatever.
It always it's always Topeka. Thisis you know, on steroids what Delta
is experiencing now. So through theweekend Friday, Saturday, and Sunday,
according to the Wall Street Journal,you had a totalist not just Delta flights,
but I assume they are a largeportion of them. More than seven
(25:03):
thousand flights canceled Friday, Saturday andSunday. As of seven am this morning,
you had six hundred additional Delta onlyflights that had already been canceled.
Today we probably are a higher numbernow that it's a few hours beyond that.
For points of comparison, according tothe Department of Transportation, which finds
Southwest a few years ago, they'retwenty twenty two Christmas blow up resulted in
(25:26):
sixteen nine hundred flights being canceled andtwo million passengers being stranded during that period
of time. So just contextualizing someof this, this is a pretty significant
blow up. But across all USairlines appeared to be seven thousand flight cancelations
over the weekend. So that's wherethings stand as of today. And I
do want to talk then about thispiece from the Wall Street Journal. Its
(25:49):
headline is blue screens Everywhere, ourlatest tech woe for Microsoft. Microsoft is
really getting caught up in like somejust in all of this here where I
don't think they're at fault in anyway, shape or form. Like Microsoft
did not cause this. Microsoft didnot do anything to make this worse.
(26:12):
It just is, Hey, youhad a vendor that built a program that
accesses the core of your operating systemand they mass pushed an update without testing
it appropriately. And that's on them, not on Microsoft. In my opinion,
I can't believe I'm defending Microsoft here, but this is like they didn't
(26:33):
do anything to cause this. Sowhat do you make of the critique from
I don't know that anyone at Applethemselves has made this or lobbed this one,
But hey, you know, Appleis much more of a closed system
that wouldn't have allowed this type ofupdate to go through based on their security
settings and systems, where it's farmore controlled than the more open architecture of
(26:57):
Microsoft's own systems. So you're willingto pay forty to sixty percent premium for
that, But you do believe thatthat might that ecosystem might have prevented this,
because I think it's a very hardmaybe on this, because it's not
as though Apple does not allow systemupdates from third parties. It just tries
to police them a little bit better. Sure, nothing to say that this
(27:21):
couldn't have impacted Apple systems, Itjust didn't this time. I don't think
there's any huge difference between the potentialvulnerability. It's just hey, would it
have been caught? Maybe, ButI don't think again, the fact that
this happened here you know again,people are gonna say, oh, like
this is like this is a hugeproblem. This can't ever happen again,
(27:42):
And first of all, with CrowdStrike, odds are probably won't because when you
have something like this that does happen, do you know how many sets of
eyes their updates are going to haveto go through now before they push that
button that says, you know,send to user. Hopefully more than the
sets of eyes on Boeing products.Correct. Okay, But the other piece
(28:06):
is, and the thing that Ithink we forget on this is it's not
like this happens every day. Wehave literally never seen anything like this before
this scale, and so the ideathat hey, this is a problem that
we all need to really address,and no, I'm not going to change
my life because of this. I'mnot going to change my devices because of
(28:30):
this. Probably not Yeah, quickword of caution for probably more the small
business owner and user out there.Crowd Strike themselves came out with a warning
that some bad actors are trying toexploit the event. By course, as
they always would, but this specificbad action is attempting to get out there
(28:52):
a quick fix to the problem.And what's been what I've heard is like,
if you are Bank of America,you have your own internal IT team
that's been working around the clock tomake sure you're up and running, Whereas
if you don't and you're reliant ona third party, that it's when we
get around to you. So they, yeah, bad actors are putting out
(29:14):
this file that's apparently going to bea quick fix to the problem. The
file named CrowdStrike dash hotfix dot zipwas being distributed that include malware enabling hackers
to remotely controlled and monitor users device, which again, hopefully you wouldn't fall
victim to a crowd strike outage andthen fall victim to a malware hack,
but not terribly surprised. When peopleare in desperate measures to get something back
(29:37):
up and running. Is typically whetherit's you know, the eighty five year
old retiree who's being taken advantage ofor the corporate CEO that's under pressure to
get things quickly back up and running. Well, I guess the question is
too, I do wonder how wellit would like that approach would work for
the hackers, because if your computer'sblue screen of death, you can't download
(30:00):
the malware onto the computer because youcan't active, you can't open it.
Yeah, good point. Like itwould clearly be targeting someone who is not
tech savvy at all, because ifyou're actually impacted by this, you can't
access your computer. Yeah. Soif you're just getting random emails about hey,
(30:21):
are you impacted by the CrowdStrike thing, and you can read them on
your computer, then you are notimpacted by the CrowdStrike thing at this point.
Yeah, it's a fair summary.So don't do anything then, or
talk to your IT people, andthat's what they're there for. Quick break
here. When we come back,talk a little bit about the job market
and where it stands as we headinto kind of the third quarter of labor
(30:45):
market data that's going to be comingout in the next week or so.
Miss any of the show. TheFinancial Exchange Show podcast is available on Apple,
Spotify, and iHeartRadio. Hit thesubscribe button and leave us a five
star review. This is the FinancialExchange Radio Network. Text us six one
seven, three six two thirteen eightyfive with your comments and questions about today's
(31:08):
show and let us know what youthink about the stories we are covering.
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network. ZIP Recruiter released their second quarter Job
(31:30):
Seeker Confidence Index data. Raise yourhand if you knew that was the thing
before today. No one hears raisingtheir hands, and I'm guessing that no
one who's listening to us is raisingtheir hands either, aside from the three
ZIP Recruiter people who are obviously listening. But the index found that their number
measuring job seeker confidence was ninety threepoint one, which is down from a
(31:53):
first quarter reading of ninety eight pointnine. Now I don't know how to
reflect what that number means, butwhat it is, it's the lowest job
seecret confidence data that we've seen inthe last two years, and here's how
they're Chief economist Julia Pollak expresses thisquote, the US labor market remains strong
(32:14):
in the aggregate, but conditions cooledsubstantially in most industries over the past quarter.
Job seekers sat up and noticed.So it seems to me that this
is still a labor market that istight by historical standards, but nowhere near
as easy to find a job nowas it has been in the last couple
of years. And in some industriesit's getting significantly harder to find jobs days.
(32:38):
So there is some real weakening that'shappening in the labor market right now.
Yeah, and you can see thatwhether you take the ZipRecruiter data or
whether you just look at you know, publicly published government data on the state
of labor market in terms of jobopenings and folks looking for work, the
UPTIC and the unemployment rate on thisone survey. I gotta tell you,
(32:58):
I'm on the zipprecruiter website. Isee data only going back to the first
quarter of twenty twenty two, sotough to contextualize what this acting like.
Yeah, obviously the labor market isnot as strong as it was in twenty
twenty three. That's about all Ithink you can conclude here. I don't
think you can go so far asto say, well, what does this
tell you about this compared to twentyeighteen or twenty eleven, And that's that's
(33:22):
the more interesting comparison in my viewright now, because we all know that
twenty twenty three was nuts in termsof job offers and raises and bonuses and
anything to do with finding a joband staying in a job. A couple
other just interesting data points from thisthat again don't tell us anything about what's
going to happen in the future,but just about how people are, you
(33:42):
know, expressing what they want outof a job now. The survey found
that the median desired time until startdate was three and a half weeks in
the second quarter, down from sevenand a half weeks in the fourth quarter.
So you'd think, what does thatactually mean, Hey, why does
someone want to start sooner? That'sprobably because they feel, you know,
some financial pressure to start sooner,and so I do think that that's something
meaningful you can take from this aswell. Changes to Medicaid occur almost every
(34:07):
year, and if you're not informed, your assets could be at risk,
especially if you or your spouse neednursing home care. Cushing and Dolan are
experts in elder law, and theirnew guide is called Last Minute Medicaid Eligibility.
It'll help you understand the Medicaid process, which is critically important if you're
retired or getting close to retiring.The god has important information regarding numerous strategies
(34:32):
that can protect your assets from thenursing home. It could be your primary
home, of vacation home, orany rental property you may own. You've
worked hard to achieve wealth, sodon't take chances when it comes to protecting
it. Get your copy of CushingDolan's brand new guide called Last Minute Medicaid
Eligibility call eight six six eight foureight five six nine nine. That's eight
(34:55):
six six eight four eight five sixnine nine, or you can request it
from their website Legal exchange show dotcom. The proceeding was paid for and
the views expressed are solely those ofCushing and Dolan. Cushing and Dolan and
or Armstrong Advisory may contact you offeringlegal or investment services. Cushing and Armstrong
did not endorse each other and arenot affiliated. Headline The Boston Globe Today
(35:17):
Massachusetts moves closer to mandating employers disclosedsalary ranges on job postings. I'll quote
here that this would require employers withtwenty five full time employees or more to
disclose salary ranges on their job postingsand protecting employees right to ask for salary
ranges in the workplace. Mike,your thoughts wouldn't be the first state to
(35:37):
go about doing this. No,New York a couple right, Colorado,
Colorado, I believe did. NewYork did as well, and specifically in
both of those states. If youI think have any presence in those locations,
or if the person could hypothetically workremotely in those locations, then you
have to. And in fact,if you look at some remote jobs,
(35:59):
they at least initially we're being postedas available to work in any location other
than Colorado when that one was initiallypublished. A few more liberal leaning states
are going this direction. Companies don'tlike it. They like negotiating in those
hiring meetings and not having the exactranges out there. But does anybody look
(36:20):
at, you know, New YorkCity jobs and say, oh man,
those businesses really can't find anybody tohire, or look how burdensome is they're
going to be moving out of NewYork City with their with their company because
they have to disclose the pay rangeson their jobs. It's uh, I
don't think it's the most burdensome regulationthat I've seen out there. No,
(36:42):
Look, it's it's miles ahead ofCalifornia with it's you know, hey,
this industry gets this minimum wage andthis one gets that. This is something
where look, quite honestly, howmuch time do you spend you know,
you meet with a candidate and you'relike, oh, this is gonna go
great, and then you're like,here's the salary range, and you just
hear the audible oh right. Youknow, like, to me, this
(37:05):
is one I don't know that it'sa necessary regulation. It is just another
layer on there of stuff that needsto be in there. I know why
they're doing it. A lot ofit has to do with pay discrepancies and
you know, tendencies for men tonegotiate more on wages than women have historically,
and there's been plenty of studies thathave sure proven this out. So
you know, I won't really takea position on that side of things,
(37:28):
but I just look at this andsay companies are afraid of it initially,
and then once they do it.It's probably one of those things that was
not nearly as big a deal asyou previously thought. It doesn't add any
cost to your overall structure. Itdoesn't add any changes to you know,
meaningfully, how you go and recruitotherwise. No, it's it's one of
(37:49):
those things where if it exists,you'll do it, and it won't really
take you more time or effort.If it doesn't exist, you won't do
it. It'll be basically the same. I just I'm not sure that there's
anything meaningful in either way. Ialso wouldn't plan on it changing the world.
No, probably not not gonna havethat meaningful of an impact. It's
(38:10):
I don't think it's anything to getvery excited about or very upset about it.
I think it's probably just kind ofone of those things that you won't
even really notice as we go downthe road. Quick break here, We've
got more financial exchange coming up ina little bit
Popular Podcasts
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show. Clay Travis and Buck Sexton tackle the biggest stories in news, politics and current events with intelligence and humor. From the border crisis, to the madness of cancel culture and far-left missteps, Clay and Buck guide listeners through the latest headlines and hot topics with fun and entertaining conversations and opinions.