December 4, 2024 • 38 mins
Chuck Zodda and Paul Lane take a look at housing predictions for 2025. Will mortgage rates fall below 6% in 2025? Will home prices crash in 2025? Salesforce hits a record high as the company continues to ride the AI boom. Florida woman who led a nearly $200 million Ponzi scheme sentenced to 20 years in prison.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(01:04):
Veterans Development Corporation. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck
Zutta and Paul Lane.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Kicking off hour two of the Financial Exchange. Chuck, Paul
and talker with you. We've got markets moving up today,
with the Dow up one hundred and seventy seven points,
the S and P's up twenty four, Na's neck up
one hundred and ninety five. So you've got equity markets
moving on up. Ten year Treasury, which was originally selling
off six basis points this morning, is now actually down
one to four point to one percent. We've got oil
(01:35):
today West Texas Intermediate down twelve cents a barrel to
sixty nine eighty two. The TRIPAA national average for gas
prices down another four tenths of ascent to three h
three and three tenths. We might get to three dollars
by the end of the year. Also, you've got gold
today up ten dollars and ten cents. Now it's to
(01:56):
twenty six seventy eight. And that is what is moving
in markets today. Paul, We've got two pieces from market
Watch here I think it's market Watch, yes. The first
one is titled will mortgage rates fall below six percent
in twenty twenty five. Here's what experts say. The second
(02:17):
is much spicier. Will home prices crash in twenty twenty five?
Here's what experts say. Now, look, that's that's only one
level removed from like, will all of us die in
twenty twenty five? Here's what experts say. But let's start
with the tamer one. Here, will mortgage rates fall below
(02:39):
six percent in twenty twenty five? What do the experts say?
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Paul huge caveat here that projecting interest rates?
Speaker 2 (02:49):
I just want to know what the experts say.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
Okay, the experts are saying within the mid sixes, that's
what the experts are saying. Whether you look at Fooring,
where they look at Fanny realtor dot com, there's six
three six ' four. We sit today close to around
seven percent. Six point one percent, I believe was the
low that we reached this year back in September. It
(03:12):
doesn't seem as if any of the quote unquote experts
out there are projecting a significant increase or decrease in
mortgage race. It seems like they will continue to stay
relatively status quo.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
All right, Tucker, we don't have much on the prediction
wall these days?
Speaker 4 (03:28):
Do we no? Pretty slim?
Speaker 2 (03:30):
It feels like it's do you have anything interesting out there?
I mean, we're getting close to year end?
Speaker 4 (03:34):
Is there anything I would have to get back to
you on that? You haven't even looked at it in
a while. We don't really do it special days. Been
a while, all right, Paul.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Here you go. I want you to tell me what
you think the lowest the thirty year fixed rate mortgage
will be next year is and what the highest because
I hate this, like, oh, here's what the year end
is gonna because it doesn't tell you anything about the path,
like the year end could be six ' five, but
you get down to three in as high as ten? Well, wow,
what a ride that was. I want you to tell
(04:03):
me what's the lowest rates go next year mortgage rates
thirty year fixed rate mortgage? And what's the highest you
think they go?
Speaker 3 (04:10):
I'll go, uh five eight five in the low end,
and on the high end I will go.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Seven to one, okay, five eight five and seven to one.
For Paul, I am going to go, oh, this is
gonna be a fun one.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Are you gonna go prices right on me?
Speaker 2 (04:32):
Five to two on the low end, seven to eight
on the high end, it's gonna be a wild year.
Oh boy, it's gonna be a wild year.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
That's for twenty twenty five, the entire year.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Yes, So the winner of this will just be the differential.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
On whoever's closest on average average, whoever has this the
smallest gap for both lowest and highest yep, okay, okay.
So for Paul, you need to have this thing betore.
For me, I gotta have some swings. Let's give some
context because it look, we can talk about this, you know,
and just give numbers, but context. Why do you think
(05:11):
the lowest we get is five eight five?
Speaker 3 (05:13):
Because well, I wanted to create a little bit of
a band there. But if basically hedging bets, where if
for some reason it plays out that it's a little
tricky here. We're going to talk about the US tenure
Treasury is the bell weather when you're looking at the
thirty year fixed mortgage, right, Yeah. A lot of what
we talk about on a daily basis with the FED
is the shorter end of the curve when they're talking
(05:35):
about moving interest rates. So it's not pure correlation that
we're going to see here that if the FED is
to cut rates more significantly next year. That that automatically
means that there is movement in the tenure, which is
why this is so difficult to project. But I will
say there is a little bit of cause and effect,
and that's why I came in there at five eight
(05:55):
five on the low end with this idea that, hey,
perhaps inflation is on a very good place at that point,
and you would have to have the economy I think,
weakening a little bit, perhaps some of the labor markets
starts to weaken as a result of that, the FED
is a little bit more aggressive with some of their
rate cuts, and that's why we get to that five
eight five. The other end of the coin to explain
(06:17):
the seven I'm right forgetting my projection seven to one
on the higher end is this idea that we sit
relatively the same as where we are today in terms
of the interest rates, the tenure treasury doesn't move tremendously
and we don't go much higher. What I'm not projecting
in there is a significant run up in inflation, the
economy overheating, and perhaps that and perhaps some policy changes
(06:42):
that make it so that the US deficit or debt
becomes a bear concern as a result of that, the
tenure runs up.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
So I think, as far as kind of where I
sit on this five to two, why do I think
it goes that low. I think there's gonna be some
kind of major recesstionary concern next year, and not that.
What I mean on this is we've been dodging these
on and off for the last two years, and I
(07:12):
think you get one that just might look a little
bit scarier. I'm not convinced that you actually go into
recession still, just because again there's no economic data right
now that's pointing towards it, and this has been a
really resilient economy for quite some time. But I think
you get some kind of recessionary concern. And the key
difference President Trump coming into office the scoreboard that he's
(07:36):
going to use to try to again like judge his tenure.
He wants to get interest rates down and he wants
the stock market up, and so there is going to
be a ton of pressure on the FED if there
is recessionary fear for the FED to you know, cut
in a meaningful fashion, and that might move markets to
(07:56):
expect there's more coming than there otherwise would be. So
I think that That's why I go a little bit
further on that side. On the other side of things,
I think one thing that we're all just kind of
sleeping on. And it's hard to say that we're sleeping
on this even given the events of the last week
where we covered an hour one what happened in South
(08:17):
Korea yesterday? Which did anyone have South Korean coup attempt
on their bingo card for twenty twenty four?
Speaker 1 (08:28):
No?
Speaker 2 (08:28):
I didn't. Again, I have three friends in South Korea,
so I literally was like, guys, what is going on here?
I don't know what South Korean politics are all about?
Fill me in on this. So we've had that going on.
You't even paying attention to what's been going on in
Syria over the last week or so. Syrian government is
(08:49):
on the run, like they are not quite being overrun yet,
but you have resistance groups, which again I don't want
to get into all of the this. I've spent quite
a bit of time on in the last week just
trying to understand because there's like twelve different players in there,
and every single major you know, country, whether it's the US, Turkey, Russia, China,
(09:12):
they've all got their hands in this as well in
terms of who they're supporting. But the Syrian government is
in danger of being overrun and not being able to
control the country anymore, and so you've got potential you know,
Middle East, you know issues with what's going on there,
coupled with Israel and Iran, that there's a lot there.
(09:35):
It feels like we're still sleeping on geopolitical risk as
a problem. And the reason why quite honestly, Look, if
you bet on geopolitical risk hurting markets for the last decade,
you've been wrong. You'll get every major thing that's happened
geopolitically in the last decade. And while there may have
been some you know shakeouts for a month or two,
(09:58):
there was nothing meaningful that actually happened to markets as
a result of it. And so I think that we're
sleeping on that a little bit, and that has the
potential to create all kinds of disruptions. Again from a
supply of goods perspective, supply of services. I mean South
Korea just as an example, if South Korea actually goes
(10:22):
into any kind of you know, major political crisis, South
Korean economy is hugely important to the world. It's incredibly
important and you like you. You can't have that just
drop off and have everything be fine. So there's a
lot out there that I think we might be underpricing
as a risk to financial conditions and the potential there
(10:46):
is for higher yields because of e either A a
rebound in inflation or b. Hey, people start to get
nervous that, gee, maybe in general government debt isn't as
safe as we thought it was, and maybe we don't
don't want to own as much of it, and so
maybe you get some kind of tail on that side too.
So that's why I've got kind of a wide band
on potential mortgage rates here. I don't know what's going
(11:10):
to be right or not, but man, there's a lot
on the board right now that I don't think we're
talking about just because everyone is so focused on, Hey,
is there gonna be another tax cut? It there may
there may not be, who knows, But there's a lot
in play that is going on outside the US that
(11:33):
eventually starts to matter here as well. Let's take a
quick break. When we come back, we'll touch on the
second one of those stories. Will home prices crash in
twenty twenty five? Gosh, what a headline will also do
some trivia right after this.
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The Financial Exchange and today's Marissa Tome's sixtieth birthday Homey
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Speaker 1 (13:07):
There.
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Speaker 2 (13:49):
So we get this big headline from mark Watchwill home
prices crash in twenty twenty five? I'll pay it off
even before I ask Paul to do so. Uh, the
answer is no. The experts don't think that they're going
to crash. In fact, Realtor dot Com things home prices
will grow three points seven percent next year. Bright MLS
thinks that they'll go up three point one, Fanny May
thinks they'll grow three point six and the National Association
(14:12):
of Realtors think they'll grow one point eight percent, So
slower growth than we've had to this point, but not
a crash nationally. Now. Here's what is interesting and what
I do think, you know, we need to pay attention to,
is this is a market right now that is very
(14:33):
much hyper local in nature in terms of where home
prices are actually moving and its specifically is is geared
towards Hey, what are you seeing in terms of local
inventories that are all over the place quite honestly, in
terms of you know where they are relative to twenty
(14:55):
eighteen twenty nineteen. You've got parts of the country Austin
tex just as an example, inventories now in Austin, Texas
are above twenty nineteen levels, and so from the peak
Austin Texas real estate prices are down thirteen percent. So
in places where inventory has recovered, prices are coming down
(15:16):
pretty meaningfully. In places like the northeast where, hey, Connecticut
still has like twenty five percent of pre pandemic inventory,
they're not coming down. Massachusetts, May and in New Hampshire all
somewhere around fifty to seventy percent pre pandemic inventory. They're
not coming down. Vermont I think is like forty five
percent or fifty percent not coming down. But you look
(15:39):
at some of these other numbers here, put To Gore
to Florida prices down eleven percent from the peak. Cape
Cora Fort Myers down seven point eight, Sarasota Bradenton down
four point three, Okala down four point three, Vero Beach,
Florida down three point three. So the places where inventory
has come back, We've talked a lot about this in
recent months, where we're seeing, hey, people will move down
(16:02):
to Florida in twenty twenty. Now we're seeing these giant
increases in their home insurance costs and things like that,
or just getting fed up with dealing with hurricanes. The
inventory is being listed and prices are coming down in
order to move those properties.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
And there was a ton of overbuilding during that period
of time because there was this max exodus of people
moving down there. I would imagine, I don't know if
you have that's national data in front of you. There
was feet with Phoenix and Boise, Idaho. Did they see
any decreases if that is in fact, national, I.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
Only have the top fifteen, or rather the worst fifteen,
so I can dig around and try to get it
for you, but I don't have that.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
They weren't in the top fifteen.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Okay, now the worst fifteen, so worst performing in terms
of change from the peak. So this is not last year,
but this is from the peak. At home prices is
Austin down thirteen percent, putting Order down eleven, Cape Coral
down seven point eight. Lake Charles, Louisiana down six ' eight,
Sarasota Bradenton for to three, Okalla, New Orleans down three
(16:59):
to five, Beach down three to three, Florida, Watsonville, California
down three to one, Killing Texas down three, The Villages,
Florida down to nine, San Antonio, Texas down to nine,
winter Haven, Florida down to seven, Rocky Mount, North Carolina
down to six, and Destined Florida down to five.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
So mostly Florida, Texas.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Yeah, yeah, that's that's where the bulk of it's happening.
So nationally you just don't have inventory levels there. So
the idea that nationally you're gonna see home prices crash
it's kind of hard to get. So no, it's it's
really hard to get there. Are you going to see
more areas that are now seeing higher inventories potentially struggling
(17:43):
with pricing in the next year. Yeah, I wouldn't be
surprised if you see, you know, more markets that are
seeing mid single digits or even low double digit declines
in pricing because the inventory is out there, and just
talking with people that are listening, they're like, yeah, I've
cut prices twice and i haven't been able to sell yet.
This is where I think we're We're going for some
of those areas, most notably Florida and Texas right now,
(18:05):
So we'll see where it develops, but nationally seems like
kind of a tough put to get there. Certainly, taking
a look at markets as we head towards the bottom
of the hour, we've got the Dow currently have two
hundred and fifty seven points, now over half percent, SP's
(18:26):
of twenty five points, Nasdaq up one hundred and eighty one,
so Tech kind of leading the way for the last
couple of days here after not really having much movement
and being one of the worst performing sectors for the
last five months. Ten year Treasury is now down two
point four basis points. We're back under four two. We're
done to four point one to nine to seven on
the ten year treasury. We've got Oil West Texas Intermediate
(18:46):
continuing to slide down another thirty nine cents a barrow
to sixty nine to fifty five, and Gold which is
up about twelve dollars early in the day now ten
dollars and forty cents at twenty six, seventy eight and
thirty cents. So overall, equities continuing to move up. Bonnield's
continuing to move down a little bit, but on the
equity side a little bit concentrated in those tech companies.
(19:11):
We're gonna take a quick break here, but when we
come back, we're going to talk about another tech company.
This one's Salesforce. They reported earnings after the bell yesterday.
We'll tell you how they did.
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Speaker 4 (20:10):
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Speaker 2 (20:39):
Paul, what did we see from Salesforce during their earnings
report yesterday? Chuck?
Speaker 3 (20:45):
We had a nice quarter here for Salesforce, as they
reported a eight point three percent increase on sales for
the period that ended on October thirty first, coming in
at nine point four to four billion. That was above
analyst expectations of nine point five three to five billion,
and largely the reason why the stock is up about
nine percent today in the first couple hours of trading
(21:07):
here is in part because of some of the numbers
that came out of this quarterly earnings report, but also
the optimism around some of Salesforce AI products where basically
they are going to be unveiling and continuing to sell
out what is called Agent Force, slightly different from Salesforce,
but basically the agent tools that they offer on their
(21:30):
customer relationship management systems. They are able to complete tasks
related to customer support or sales development without any type
of human supervisions. So an example of potentially AI being
used to speed up productivity and replacing what something that
may have been before a human manual task that could
(21:51):
be automated through the use of AI. So that has
been truly some of the optimism regarding this recent release.
Operating margin since came in pretty well. Also, Salesforce has
had a crazy year. Their stock was down at two
hundred and eighteen dollars a share on May thirtieth, and
today we sit here on December fourth, the stock is
at three hundred and sixty dollars a share, a fifty
(22:13):
percent jump since then. Because back in May they had
said that they were going to see some of the
slowest sales growth that they've seen in their history.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
Paul, how long do you think it'll be until I
can be replaced with AI?
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Irreplaceable?
Speaker 2 (22:30):
No one's irreplaceable. Beyonce told me.
Speaker 3 (22:32):
That that's true to Left to life.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
So I think The interesting thing on this is I look,
I'm someone who I'm fascinated by where AI can take
us because I think as scary as it can be
to be like, oh, like it's going to replace like
all of our ability to work, I view it as
simply another tool that we can leverage to be able
(22:57):
to do more. Like we didn't go out and say, hey,
you know what, we're going to not allow construction workers
to use power tools because then we're gonna need fewer
construction workers like that. That's just that that would be dumb,
like work smarter, not harder. Likewise, with white collar workers,
are we gonna say, hey, don't use AI, Like We're
(23:18):
not gonna use AI because it's gonna get rid of jobs? No,
like that, There's always more work to be done. And
I think that this is something where when I'm trying
to reconcile here, is that the potential upside of hey,
how much more can we do with AI with the
fact that, as someone who does use AI on pretty
close to a daily basis right now, it still makes
(23:42):
some really bad mistakes really frequently, and and stuff that
is just dumb, like artificial unintelligence. We did the one
where I was googling something live on air. I was
duck duck going something, and I was like, oh, like,
what's bigger this or that? And it printed the two
numbers the AI did and then said that the smaller
(24:05):
one was bigger than the larger one. And You're like, well,
I can't trust that thing handling like medical billing or
something like that if it can't even tell me which
number is bigger or smaller than the other. So I
go back and forth between hey, this is gonna be
really interesting and potentially revolutionary, with hey, it struggles with
(24:27):
some really basic stuff and the pictures that it makes
are cool, but they're not that cool. So what are
we really doing here?
Speaker 3 (24:35):
I mean, you could apply the same concept though to
I know, as much as you've complained about Google Search
recently from where it was ten years ago, it's worse,
okay in your opinion, But why do you.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Think Google Search is better now?
Speaker 3 (24:51):
How? I don't see how it's so much worse?
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Well, what do you want? What's something that you what's
something you can think about in last day? I'll give
you an example.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
I'll give you a Google that I just did because
garlic no a Volkswagen How much does garlic cost? We
have a Volkswagen story. I said, what's Germany's largest employer?
It's Volkswagen, confirming what I.
Speaker 4 (25:16):
I could have told him that.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
I wouldn't go to you for this information.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Oh fine, I googled how much does garlic cost? Here's
what I get. The entire first page. The entire first
page is links to Amazon to buy garlic, not how
much to like, but it's links to Amazon, then Walmart.
Then I get more popular products, and then like, I
get someplace called night Owl Farm selling garlic by the pound,
(25:44):
twelve dollars a pound for garlic? How good is your
freaking garlic?
Speaker 1 (25:48):
Like?
Speaker 2 (25:48):
What are we even doing there? But I can't even
get the answer that I want, just hey, how much
does garlic cost? Even if I type in how much
does garlic cost? On average? All I get are these
freaking things that are trying to sell me something instead
of actually answering the question. And that's problematic to me
(26:09):
when it can't answer a basic thing like that. Oh
here garlic festival foods sixty two dollars for a ten
pound box of garlic? Great? Who needs that? And I
say that as a proud Italian. It goes through ten
pounds of garlic a week, but you know, let's pump
the brakes a little bit.
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Speaker 2 (27:26):
I'm also I'm gonna stick with this garlic thing just
because this is it's really cooking my grits here, So
I get this aioverview from Google. The price of garlic
can vary depending on the variety, quantity, and whether it's organic.
Retail garlic typically sells for a dollar fifty to two
fifty a pounds.
Speaker 4 (27:44):
Yeah, I'm looking at that too. That's not accurate, Yeah,
isn't it usually like ninety nine cents for ahead of garlic.
Speaker 2 (27:52):
I usually get anywhere between like seventy five and a dollar.
But ahead of garlic does not weigh a pound, So
like that's just not right first off, and then like
you go down even further. Fresh garlic typically, it says,
for example, Walmart sells fresh garlic bulbs for around sixty
six cents each or four to fourteen a pounds. The
answers contradict themselves within the very AI overview, like you
(28:16):
can't be like, well, it's typically this. And then Walmart,
which is probably like the low cost provider or close
to it. They're the biggest grocer in the country by scale.
They have to be close to the lowest pricing. You're like, oh,
Walmart's four to fourteen a pounds, so why are you
telling me a dollar fifty to two fifty a pound?
Speaker 4 (28:32):
Yeah, that's wrong.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
This is my problem with generative AI is that it sucks.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
Man.
Speaker 4 (28:38):
You can buy fresh cut garlic peel that shaws for
three bucks, so you're paying the extra two plus dollars
to peel it.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
Peel it?
Speaker 2 (28:48):
Really right? Ok Like what what do we realize that's
a whole different problem. That's a whole different problem. Like,
come on, just peel the thing and the one that's
still bothers me more than anything else is Okay. So
I want to take the family apple picking. Why does
it cost me more to pick the apples if I'm
doing the labor because I can get the apples cheaper
(29:10):
at the store. And I say this to someone who's
an unabashed fan of apple picking, I'll pay the extra money.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
Someone's saying you have to use the right AI per thing.
For example, chat GBT wasn't trained in math, well exactly,
but but even like Google's trying to give me AI
answers and they're not right, you know, like quantity garlic
can be sold in a variety of quantities, Tucker, how do.
Speaker 2 (29:37):
You typically buy garlic head? Exactly? Garl can be sold
in a variety of quantities, such as two ounces, two pounds,
eight ounces, or twelve ounces. Walk into any store and
be like, hey, can I get twelve ounces of garlic?
And they'll be like, I don't know how to do that.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
Just take a thing a garlic and leave.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
We'll pay and leave. This is the entire first page
of Google. Like, without scrolling, all I can see is
the AI result, and it's useless. So this is what
I'm talking about when I say that Google kind of sucks.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
Yeah, Paul.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
Defending Google. What's something else that we can go?
Speaker 1 (30:12):
Here?
Speaker 2 (30:13):
I'll duck Duck got It's not just Google. Like you
go to duck duck go and be like, how long
does it it take to get to the moon? A
couple hours? Do I get an AI result?
Speaker 4 (30:27):
No?
Speaker 2 (30:27):
I don't. I do actually get from space dot com
how long does it take to get to the moon?
So I get that. Let me try the garlic thing.
Speaker 4 (30:36):
Dude, they sell garlic in space?
Speaker 2 (30:39):
Probably not?
Speaker 4 (30:41):
They grow garlic space.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
Okay, here we go. I get garlic price in the
US November twenty twenty four market prices. That's at least
a little bit more useful. The second thing, how much
does garlic cost from Chef's resource USDA e ers fruit
and vegetable prices. This is more relevant now. Then, Hey,
here's some AI crap that you generated that is wrong
(31:06):
and links to Amazon to buy garlic. Sorry, Paul, I
didn't mean to do that. I feel like I just
spent the last fifteen minutes of ripping on You.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
Were close to a break.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
I'm sorry. It's not your fault. Let's take a quick
break here. When we come back, we'll do stack Roulette.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
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Speaker 4 (31:57):
A couple of follow up texts on our cushion to
hear boys out of the six three Earlier this year,
I wanted to find out how to kill a particular
weed that was overtaking our property. Google AI gave me
suggestions on how do I encourage its growth. That was
matt in New Hampshire there and then then it.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
Was it was like a Costanza type thing where if
you just do the opposite of that, yeah, that's all.
Speaker 4 (32:21):
That's all. And then somebody else on the nine seven
eight said you have to request duck assist and it's
not in your face like Google.
Speaker 2 (32:29):
Is duck assist.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
Yeah, duck duck and AI thing for I assume that's what.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Okay, Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's a duck assist. So there's that. Paul,
what do you have for me for stack Roulette.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
We've got a floor. A woman who led a two
hundred million dollars ponzi schime sentenced to twenty years in prison.
So Johanna Garcia received the maximum possible sentence for one
kind of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and mail fraud.
Johanna Garcia had started up MJ Capital, which MJ Capital,
(33:05):
which was established back in twenty twenty, promised that it
would generate an annual rate of one hundred and twenty
percent annual rate one hundred twenty percent to its investors.
It was cleany, is that good? That's tremendous. That is
numbers that if you're an investor, you really should raise
(33:25):
more than eyebrows a couple two three eyebrows on that
kind of rate of return. They were going to be
making merchant loans to businesses, short term loans and high
cost loans called merchant cast advances. She ran this for
several years, netting one hundred ninety one million over a
period from October twenty twenty through August twenty twenty one.
(33:49):
Of that, investors lost nearly ninety million. And of course
it wouldn't be complete with a fraud or a negative
story without Wells Fargo again in the mix here for
Fannas for failing to properly adhere to their anti Monday
launery concerns, as they were the bank behind this MJA capital.
(34:09):
So just a really a traggic story obviously of course
for investors, but something that it's gonna continue. There's always
gonna be you know, bad apples out there, and this
one was a doozy.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
It's Yeah, it's kind of wild here, especially the part
that I found amazing on this. So the partner in
this was someone by the name of Pavel Ramon Ruiz Hernandez,
and he had already pled guilty. He pleaded guilty to
this in April of twenty three and was sentenced to
nine years and two months in prison. But the other
(34:43):
part of this, like they kind of buried the lead
on this quote, prosecutor said Tuesday. After MJ Capitol was
shut down by the FBI and Securities and Exchange Commission, Garcia,
Ruiz Hernandez and others launched a new similar ponzi scheme
in the fall of twenty twenty one.
Speaker 3 (34:57):
It reantied up.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
Like what.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
I mean, I just.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
It.
Speaker 2 (35:06):
It really takes a little bit of hootspa to be like, Hey,
I got caught Ponzie. What are we gonna do? Watch
another one before.
Speaker 3 (35:14):
We go to jail. You were shut down by the
FBI and the SEC. We're not talking about some podunk
local police unit.
Speaker 2 (35:23):
You at that point, like, what what do you think
is gonna happen? They've already gotten you once. You think
they're just gonna be like, wow, We're just gonna stop
paying attention to you while you wait for trial.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
You know, chuck, cross that case off the list, all set,
We'll never look at them again.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
So yeah, that part to me was just like, Wow,
you got caught once and you decided to immediately start
a new one. That's not something that you typically see.
So man, we've just been seeing all new lows in
terms of fraud this year. It's it's just been quite honestly,
I've said this before, there really is just not enough
(36:01):
shame in the world today.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
M M.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
Like there's a real problem when you're just like, hey,
I got caught ponziing and I'm gonna do it again,
and then not.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
Within no time, no time at all. Didn't let it
cool off, you know, like in those you know mafia
shows something, Hey, you know we're catching heat right now,
slow down a little bit, No, right back at it.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
Uh So Jaguar who last year, uh last week, rather
I kind of poop pooed the fact that they went
through this reband rebrand where ay their rebrand video didn't
have any cars in it, and b they're now capitalizing
the J G and U of Jaguar and getting rid
of the leaping Jaguars their image. They unveiled a concept
(36:46):
car I think it was over the weekend, and it's
kind of like, okay, so concept cars. A. If you're
not familiar with the the terminology their cars that companies
never build because it's just like, hey, here's what we
might look like in the future. And A this shows
like nothing because they're basically saying we're not gonna build this,
(37:09):
but we needed to show you something. B it looks horrible.
And see, I still don't know who this is targeted at,
Like we talked about this last week, where like they're
trying to get towards Hey, we want, you know, younger
people to buy our cars. The worst thing that you
(37:29):
can do when trying to convince your target demo to
do anything is make something that appeals directly to them.
I mentioned you remember cy on the Toyota brand. MM
it was geared towards young people. What happened. Young people
didn't buy them because they don't want to be like
talked down to as oh, like you need to have
something that's for you, No, they want young people want
things that older people have, and older people want things
(37:52):
that younger people have. So if you want to attract
younger people. Don't build a car that you think is
what younger people would like.
Speaker 3 (38:01):
Yeah, they you really don't see a lot of Jaguars
around anymore.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
No, their sales are down like sixty percent here over
not like decade over decade in the US. It's uh,
they have problems, but I don't think this is the answer.
Is the problem, Well, it's another problem. They got a
few problems, not as many as the double Ponzi people.
We're done for the day. We'll see you tomorrow on
the Financial Exchange
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
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(01:04):
Veterans Development Corporation. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck
Zutta and Paul Lane.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Kicking off hour two of the Financial Exchange. Chuck, Paul
and talker with you. We've got markets moving up today,
with the Dow up one hundred and seventy seven points,
the S and P's up twenty four, Na's neck up
one hundred and ninety five. So you've got equity markets
moving on up. Ten year Treasury, which was originally selling
off six basis points this morning, is now actually down
one to four point to one percent. We've got oil
(01:35):
today West Texas Intermediate down twelve cents a barrel to
sixty nine eighty two. The TRIPAA national average for gas
prices down another four tenths of ascent to three h
three and three tenths. We might get to three dollars
by the end of the year. Also, you've got gold
today up ten dollars and ten cents. Now it's to
(01:56):
twenty six seventy eight. And that is what is moving
in markets today. Paul, We've got two pieces from market
Watch here I think it's market Watch, yes. The first
one is titled will mortgage rates fall below six percent
in twenty twenty five. Here's what experts say. The second
(02:17):
is much spicier. Will home prices crash in twenty twenty five?
Here's what experts say. Now, look, that's that's only one
level removed from like, will all of us die in
twenty twenty five? Here's what experts say. But let's start
with the tamer one. Here, will mortgage rates fall below
(02:39):
six percent in twenty twenty five? What do the experts say?
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Paul huge caveat here that projecting interest rates?
Speaker 2 (02:49):
I just want to know what the experts say.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
Okay, the experts are saying within the mid sixes, that's
what the experts are saying. Whether you look at Fooring,
where they look at Fanny realtor dot com, there's six
three six ' four. We sit today close to around
seven percent. Six point one percent, I believe was the
low that we reached this year back in September. It
(03:12):
doesn't seem as if any of the quote unquote experts
out there are projecting a significant increase or decrease in
mortgage race. It seems like they will continue to stay
relatively status quo.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
All right, Tucker, we don't have much on the prediction
wall these days?
Speaker 4 (03:28):
Do we no? Pretty slim?
Speaker 2 (03:30):
It feels like it's do you have anything interesting out there?
I mean, we're getting close to year end?
Speaker 4 (03:34):
Is there anything I would have to get back to
you on that? You haven't even looked at it in
a while. We don't really do it special days. Been
a while, all right, Paul.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Here you go. I want you to tell me what
you think the lowest the thirty year fixed rate mortgage
will be next year is and what the highest because
I hate this, like, oh, here's what the year end
is gonna because it doesn't tell you anything about the path,
like the year end could be six ' five, but
you get down to three in as high as ten? Well, wow,
what a ride that was. I want you to tell
(04:03):
me what's the lowest rates go next year mortgage rates
thirty year fixed rate mortgage? And what's the highest you
think they go?
Speaker 3 (04:10):
I'll go, uh five eight five in the low end,
and on the high end I will go.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Seven to one, okay, five eight five and seven to one.
For Paul, I am going to go, oh, this is
gonna be a fun one.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Are you gonna go prices right on me?
Speaker 2 (04:32):
Five to two on the low end, seven to eight
on the high end, it's gonna be a wild year.
Oh boy, it's gonna be a wild year.
Speaker 4 (04:42):
That's for twenty twenty five, the entire year.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Yes, So the winner of this will just be the differential.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
On whoever's closest on average average, whoever has this the
smallest gap for both lowest and highest yep, okay, okay.
So for Paul, you need to have this thing betore.
For me, I gotta have some swings. Let's give some
context because it look, we can talk about this, you know,
and just give numbers, but context. Why do you think
(05:11):
the lowest we get is five eight five?
Speaker 3 (05:13):
Because well, I wanted to create a little bit of
a band there. But if basically hedging bets, where if
for some reason it plays out that it's a little
tricky here. We're going to talk about the US tenure
Treasury is the bell weather when you're looking at the
thirty year fixed mortgage, right, Yeah. A lot of what
we talk about on a daily basis with the FED
is the shorter end of the curve when they're talking
(05:35):
about moving interest rates. So it's not pure correlation that
we're going to see here that if the FED is
to cut rates more significantly next year. That that automatically
means that there is movement in the tenure, which is
why this is so difficult to project. But I will
say there is a little bit of cause and effect,
and that's why I came in there at five eight
(05:55):
five on the low end with this idea that, hey,
perhaps inflation is on a very good place at that point,
and you would have to have the economy I think,
weakening a little bit, perhaps some of the labor markets
starts to weaken as a result of that, the FED
is a little bit more aggressive with some of their
rate cuts, and that's why we get to that five
eight five. The other end of the coin to explain
(06:17):
the seven I'm right forgetting my projection seven to one
on the higher end is this idea that we sit
relatively the same as where we are today in terms
of the interest rates, the tenure treasury doesn't move tremendously
and we don't go much higher. What I'm not projecting
in there is a significant run up in inflation, the
economy overheating, and perhaps that and perhaps some policy changes
(06:42):
that make it so that the US deficit or debt
becomes a bear concern as a result of that, the
tenure runs up.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
So I think, as far as kind of where I
sit on this five to two, why do I think
it goes that low. I think there's gonna be some
kind of major recesstionary concern next year, and not that.
What I mean on this is we've been dodging these
on and off for the last two years, and I
(07:12):
think you get one that just might look a little
bit scarier. I'm not convinced that you actually go into
recession still, just because again there's no economic data right
now that's pointing towards it, and this has been a
really resilient economy for quite some time. But I think
you get some kind of recessionary concern. And the key
difference President Trump coming into office the scoreboard that he's
(07:36):
going to use to try to again like judge his tenure.
He wants to get interest rates down and he wants
the stock market up, and so there is going to
be a ton of pressure on the FED if there
is recessionary fear for the FED to you know, cut
in a meaningful fashion, and that might move markets to
(07:56):
expect there's more coming than there otherwise would be. So
I think that That's why I go a little bit
further on that side. On the other side of things,
I think one thing that we're all just kind of
sleeping on. And it's hard to say that we're sleeping
on this even given the events of the last week
where we covered an hour one what happened in South
(08:17):
Korea yesterday? Which did anyone have South Korean coup attempt
on their bingo card for twenty twenty four?
Speaker 1 (08:28):
No?
Speaker 2 (08:28):
I didn't. Again, I have three friends in South Korea,
so I literally was like, guys, what is going on here?
I don't know what South Korean politics are all about?
Fill me in on this. So we've had that going on.
You't even paying attention to what's been going on in
Syria over the last week or so. Syrian government is
(08:49):
on the run, like they are not quite being overrun yet,
but you have resistance groups, which again I don't want
to get into all of the this. I've spent quite
a bit of time on in the last week just
trying to understand because there's like twelve different players in there,
and every single major you know, country, whether it's the US, Turkey, Russia, China,
(09:12):
they've all got their hands in this as well in
terms of who they're supporting. But the Syrian government is
in danger of being overrun and not being able to
control the country anymore, and so you've got potential you know,
Middle East, you know issues with what's going on there,
coupled with Israel and Iran, that there's a lot there.
(09:35):
It feels like we're still sleeping on geopolitical risk as
a problem. And the reason why quite honestly, Look, if
you bet on geopolitical risk hurting markets for the last decade,
you've been wrong. You'll get every major thing that's happened
geopolitically in the last decade. And while there may have
been some you know shakeouts for a month or two,
(09:58):
there was nothing meaningful that actually happened to markets as
a result of it. And so I think that we're
sleeping on that a little bit, and that has the
potential to create all kinds of disruptions. Again from a
supply of goods perspective, supply of services. I mean South
Korea just as an example, if South Korea actually goes
(10:22):
into any kind of you know, major political crisis, South
Korean economy is hugely important to the world. It's incredibly
important and you like you. You can't have that just
drop off and have everything be fine. So there's a
lot out there that I think we might be underpricing
as a risk to financial conditions and the potential there
(10:46):
is for higher yields because of e either A a
rebound in inflation or b. Hey, people start to get
nervous that, gee, maybe in general government debt isn't as
safe as we thought it was, and maybe we don't
don't want to own as much of it, and so
maybe you get some kind of tail on that side too.
So that's why I've got kind of a wide band
on potential mortgage rates here. I don't know what's going
(11:10):
to be right or not, but man, there's a lot
on the board right now that I don't think we're
talking about just because everyone is so focused on, Hey,
is there gonna be another tax cut? It there may
there may not be, who knows, But there's a lot
in play that is going on outside the US that
(11:33):
eventually starts to matter here as well. Let's take a
quick break. When we come back, we'll touch on the
second one of those stories. Will home prices crash in
twenty twenty five? Gosh, what a headline will also do
some trivia right after this.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
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The Financial Exchange and today's Marissa Tome's sixtieth birthday Homey
(13:00):
is most famous for being attracted to short, pudgy bald men, well,
at least on the Seinfeld Show.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
There.
Speaker 4 (13:08):
Mursa to May became a megastar in the early nineties
when she won Best Supporting Actress at the nineteen ninety
three Oscars Trivia Question Today, Mursa to May won her
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(13:31):
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Speaker 2 (13:49):
So we get this big headline from mark Watchwill home
prices crash in twenty twenty five? I'll pay it off
even before I ask Paul to do so. Uh, the
answer is no. The experts don't think that they're going
to crash. In fact, Realtor dot Com things home prices
will grow three points seven percent next year. Bright MLS
thinks that they'll go up three point one, Fanny May
thinks they'll grow three point six and the National Association
(14:12):
of Realtors think they'll grow one point eight percent, So
slower growth than we've had to this point, but not
a crash nationally. Now. Here's what is interesting and what
I do think, you know, we need to pay attention to,
is this is a market right now that is very
(14:33):
much hyper local in nature in terms of where home
prices are actually moving and its specifically is is geared
towards Hey, what are you seeing in terms of local
inventories that are all over the place quite honestly, in
terms of you know where they are relative to twenty
(14:55):
eighteen twenty nineteen. You've got parts of the country Austin
tex just as an example, inventories now in Austin, Texas
are above twenty nineteen levels, and so from the peak
Austin Texas real estate prices are down thirteen percent. So
in places where inventory has recovered, prices are coming down
(15:16):
pretty meaningfully. In places like the northeast where, hey, Connecticut
still has like twenty five percent of pre pandemic inventory,
they're not coming down. Massachusetts, May and in New Hampshire all
somewhere around fifty to seventy percent pre pandemic inventory. They're
not coming down. Vermont I think is like forty five
percent or fifty percent not coming down. But you look
(15:39):
at some of these other numbers here, put To Gore
to Florida prices down eleven percent from the peak. Cape
Cora Fort Myers down seven point eight, Sarasota Bradenton down
four point three, Okala down four point three, Vero Beach,
Florida down three point three. So the places where inventory
has come back, We've talked a lot about this in
recent months, where we're seeing, hey, people will move down
(16:02):
to Florida in twenty twenty. Now we're seeing these giant
increases in their home insurance costs and things like that,
or just getting fed up with dealing with hurricanes. The
inventory is being listed and prices are coming down in
order to move those properties.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
And there was a ton of overbuilding during that period
of time because there was this max exodus of people
moving down there. I would imagine, I don't know if
you have that's national data in front of you. There
was feet with Phoenix and Boise, Idaho. Did they see
any decreases if that is in fact, national, I.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
Only have the top fifteen, or rather the worst fifteen,
so I can dig around and try to get it
for you, but I don't have that.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
They weren't in the top fifteen.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Okay, now the worst fifteen, so worst performing in terms
of change from the peak. So this is not last year,
but this is from the peak. At home prices is
Austin down thirteen percent, putting Order down eleven, Cape Coral
down seven point eight. Lake Charles, Louisiana down six ' eight,
Sarasota Bradenton for to three, Okalla, New Orleans down three
(16:59):
to five, Beach down three to three, Florida, Watsonville, California
down three to one, Killing Texas down three, The Villages,
Florida down to nine, San Antonio, Texas down to nine,
winter Haven, Florida down to seven, Rocky Mount, North Carolina
down to six, and Destined Florida down to five.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
So mostly Florida, Texas.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Yeah, yeah, that's that's where the bulk of it's happening.
So nationally you just don't have inventory levels there. So
the idea that nationally you're gonna see home prices crash
it's kind of hard to get. So no, it's it's
really hard to get there. Are you going to see
more areas that are now seeing higher inventories potentially struggling
(17:43):
with pricing in the next year. Yeah, I wouldn't be
surprised if you see, you know, more markets that are
seeing mid single digits or even low double digit declines
in pricing because the inventory is out there, and just
talking with people that are listening, they're like, yeah, I've
cut prices twice and i haven't been able to sell yet.
This is where I think we're We're going for some
of those areas, most notably Florida and Texas right now,
(18:05):
So we'll see where it develops, but nationally seems like
kind of a tough put to get there. Certainly, taking
a look at markets as we head towards the bottom
of the hour, we've got the Dow currently have two
hundred and fifty seven points, now over half percent, SP's
(18:26):
of twenty five points, Nasdaq up one hundred and eighty one,
so Tech kind of leading the way for the last
couple of days here after not really having much movement
and being one of the worst performing sectors for the
last five months. Ten year Treasury is now down two
point four basis points. We're back under four two. We're
done to four point one to nine to seven on
the ten year treasury. We've got Oil West Texas Intermediate
(18:46):
continuing to slide down another thirty nine cents a barrow
to sixty nine to fifty five, and Gold which is
up about twelve dollars early in the day now ten
dollars and forty cents at twenty six, seventy eight and
thirty cents. So overall, equities continuing to move up. Bonnield's
continuing to move down a little bit, but on the
equity side a little bit concentrated in those tech companies.
(19:11):
We're gonna take a quick break here, but when we
come back, we're going to talk about another tech company.
This one's Salesforce. They reported earnings after the bell yesterday.
We'll tell you how they did.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day,
it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Text us at six one seven three, six two one
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Speaker 4 (20:10):
Trivia Question today was mrsa Tump. Tomay won her only
Academy award for her performance in which movie, Well, that
would be My Cousin Vinnie, where she starred as Mona
Lisa Vito or Joe Peshi's love interest Jen in Riverside,
Rhode Island is our winner today, taking home a Financial
Exchange Show t shirt. Congrats to Jen and we play
(20:31):
trivia every day here on the Financial Exchange. See complete
contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
Paul, what did we see from Salesforce during their earnings
report yesterday? Chuck?
Speaker 3 (20:45):
We had a nice quarter here for Salesforce, as they
reported a eight point three percent increase on sales for
the period that ended on October thirty first, coming in
at nine point four to four billion. That was above
analyst expectations of nine point five three to five billion,
and largely the reason why the stock is up about
nine percent today in the first couple hours of trading
(21:07):
here is in part because of some of the numbers
that came out of this quarterly earnings report, but also
the optimism around some of Salesforce AI products where basically
they are going to be unveiling and continuing to sell
out what is called Agent Force, slightly different from Salesforce,
but basically the agent tools that they offer on their
(21:30):
customer relationship management systems. They are able to complete tasks
related to customer support or sales development without any type
of human supervisions. So an example of potentially AI being
used to speed up productivity and replacing what something that
may have been before a human manual task that could
(21:51):
be automated through the use of AI. So that has
been truly some of the optimism regarding this recent release.
Operating margin since came in pretty well. Also, Salesforce has
had a crazy year. Their stock was down at two
hundred and eighteen dollars a share on May thirtieth, and
today we sit here on December fourth, the stock is
at three hundred and sixty dollars a share, a fifty
(22:13):
percent jump since then. Because back in May they had
said that they were going to see some of the
slowest sales growth that they've seen in their history.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
Paul, how long do you think it'll be until I
can be replaced with AI?
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Irreplaceable?
Speaker 2 (22:30):
No one's irreplaceable. Beyonce told me.
Speaker 3 (22:32):
That that's true to Left to life.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
So I think The interesting thing on this is I look,
I'm someone who I'm fascinated by where AI can take
us because I think as scary as it can be
to be like, oh, like it's going to replace like
all of our ability to work, I view it as
simply another tool that we can leverage to be able
(22:57):
to do more. Like we didn't go out and say, hey,
you know what, we're going to not allow construction workers
to use power tools because then we're gonna need fewer
construction workers like that. That's just that that would be dumb,
like work smarter, not harder. Likewise, with white collar workers,
are we gonna say, hey, don't use AI, Like We're
(23:18):
not gonna use AI because it's gonna get rid of jobs? No,
like that, There's always more work to be done. And
I think that this is something where when I'm trying
to reconcile here, is that the potential upside of hey,
how much more can we do with AI with the
fact that, as someone who does use AI on pretty
close to a daily basis right now, it still makes
(23:42):
some really bad mistakes really frequently, and and stuff that
is just dumb, like artificial unintelligence. We did the one
where I was googling something live on air. I was
duck duck going something, and I was like, oh, like,
what's bigger this or that? And it printed the two
numbers the AI did and then said that the smaller
(24:05):
one was bigger than the larger one. And You're like, well,
I can't trust that thing handling like medical billing or
something like that if it can't even tell me which
number is bigger or smaller than the other. So I
go back and forth between hey, this is gonna be
really interesting and potentially revolutionary, with hey, it struggles with
(24:27):
some really basic stuff and the pictures that it makes
are cool, but they're not that cool. So what are
we really doing here?
Speaker 3 (24:35):
I mean, you could apply the same concept though to
I know, as much as you've complained about Google Search
recently from where it was ten years ago, it's worse,
okay in your opinion, But why do you.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Think Google Search is better now?
Speaker 3 (24:51):
How? I don't see how it's so much worse?
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Well, what do you want? What's something that you what's
something you can think about in last day? I'll give
you an example.
Speaker 3 (25:02):
I'll give you a Google that I just did because
garlic no a Volkswagen How much does garlic cost? We
have a Volkswagen story. I said, what's Germany's largest employer?
It's Volkswagen, confirming what I.
Speaker 4 (25:16):
I could have told him that.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
I wouldn't go to you for this information.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Oh fine, I googled how much does garlic cost? Here's
what I get. The entire first page. The entire first
page is links to Amazon to buy garlic, not how
much to like, but it's links to Amazon, then Walmart.
Then I get more popular products, and then like, I
get someplace called night Owl Farm selling garlic by the pound,
(25:44):
twelve dollars a pound for garlic? How good is your
freaking garlic?
Speaker 1 (25:48):
Like?
Speaker 2 (25:48):
What are we even doing there? But I can't even
get the answer that I want, just hey, how much
does garlic cost? Even if I type in how much
does garlic cost? On average? All I get are these
freaking things that are trying to sell me something instead
of actually answering the question. And that's problematic to me
(26:09):
when it can't answer a basic thing like that. Oh
here garlic festival foods sixty two dollars for a ten
pound box of garlic? Great? Who needs that? And I
say that as a proud Italian. It goes through ten
pounds of garlic a week, but you know, let's pump
the brakes a little bit.
Speaker 4 (26:27):
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Speaker 2 (27:26):
I'm also I'm gonna stick with this garlic thing just
because this is it's really cooking my grits here, So
I get this aioverview from Google. The price of garlic
can vary depending on the variety, quantity, and whether it's organic.
Retail garlic typically sells for a dollar fifty to two
fifty a pounds.
Speaker 4 (27:44):
Yeah, I'm looking at that too. That's not accurate, Yeah,
isn't it usually like ninety nine cents for ahead of garlic.
Speaker 2 (27:52):
I usually get anywhere between like seventy five and a dollar.
But ahead of garlic does not weigh a pound, So
like that's just not right first off, and then like
you go down even further. Fresh garlic typically, it says,
for example, Walmart sells fresh garlic bulbs for around sixty
six cents each or four to fourteen a pounds. The
answers contradict themselves within the very AI overview, like you
(28:16):
can't be like, well, it's typically this. And then Walmart,
which is probably like the low cost provider or close
to it. They're the biggest grocer in the country by scale.
They have to be close to the lowest pricing. You're like, oh,
Walmart's four to fourteen a pounds, so why are you
telling me a dollar fifty to two fifty a pound?
Speaker 4 (28:32):
Yeah, that's wrong.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
This is my problem with generative AI is that it sucks.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
Man.
Speaker 4 (28:38):
You can buy fresh cut garlic peel that shaws for
three bucks, so you're paying the extra two plus dollars
to peel it.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
Peel it?
Speaker 2 (28:48):
Really right? Ok Like what what do we realize that's
a whole different problem. That's a whole different problem. Like,
come on, just peel the thing and the one that's
still bothers me more than anything else is Okay. So
I want to take the family apple picking. Why does
it cost me more to pick the apples if I'm
doing the labor because I can get the apples cheaper
(29:10):
at the store. And I say this to someone who's
an unabashed fan of apple picking, I'll pay the extra money.
Speaker 4 (29:17):
Someone's saying you have to use the right AI per thing.
For example, chat GBT wasn't trained in math, well exactly,
but but even like Google's trying to give me AI
answers and they're not right, you know, like quantity garlic
can be sold in a variety of quantities, Tucker, how do.
Speaker 2 (29:37):
You typically buy garlic head? Exactly? Garl can be sold
in a variety of quantities, such as two ounces, two pounds,
eight ounces, or twelve ounces. Walk into any store and
be like, hey, can I get twelve ounces of garlic?
And they'll be like, I don't know how to do that.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
Just take a thing a garlic and leave.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
We'll pay and leave. This is the entire first page
of Google. Like, without scrolling, all I can see is
the AI result, and it's useless. So this is what
I'm talking about when I say that Google kind of sucks.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
Yeah, Paul.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
Defending Google. What's something else that we can go?
Speaker 1 (30:12):
Here?
Speaker 2 (30:13):
I'll duck Duck got It's not just Google. Like you
go to duck duck go and be like, how long
does it it take to get to the moon? A
couple hours? Do I get an AI result?
Speaker 4 (30:27):
No?
Speaker 2 (30:27):
I don't. I do actually get from space dot com
how long does it take to get to the moon?
So I get that. Let me try the garlic thing.
Speaker 4 (30:36):
Dude, they sell garlic in space?
Speaker 2 (30:39):
Probably not?
Speaker 4 (30:41):
They grow garlic space.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
Okay, here we go. I get garlic price in the
US November twenty twenty four market prices. That's at least
a little bit more useful. The second thing, how much
does garlic cost from Chef's resource USDA e ers fruit
and vegetable prices. This is more relevant now. Then, Hey,
here's some AI crap that you generated that is wrong
(31:06):
and links to Amazon to buy garlic. Sorry, Paul, I
didn't mean to do that. I feel like I just
spent the last fifteen minutes of ripping on You.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
Were close to a break.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
I'm sorry. It's not your fault. Let's take a quick
break here. When we come back, we'll do stack Roulette.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
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(31:43):
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Speaker 4 (31:57):
A couple of follow up texts on our cushion to
hear boys out of the six three Earlier this year,
I wanted to find out how to kill a particular
weed that was overtaking our property. Google AI gave me
suggestions on how do I encourage its growth. That was
matt in New Hampshire there and then then it.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
Was it was like a Costanza type thing where if
you just do the opposite of that, yeah, that's all.
Speaker 4 (32:21):
That's all. And then somebody else on the nine seven
eight said you have to request duck assist and it's
not in your face like Google.
Speaker 2 (32:29):
Is duck assist.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
Yeah, duck duck and AI thing for I assume that's what.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Okay, Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's a duck assist. So there's that. Paul,
what do you have for me for stack Roulette.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
We've got a floor. A woman who led a two
hundred million dollars ponzi schime sentenced to twenty years in prison.
So Johanna Garcia received the maximum possible sentence for one
kind of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and mail fraud.
Johanna Garcia had started up MJ Capital, which MJ Capital,
(33:05):
which was established back in twenty twenty, promised that it
would generate an annual rate of one hundred and twenty
percent annual rate one hundred twenty percent to its investors.
It was cleany, is that good? That's tremendous. That is
numbers that if you're an investor, you really should raise
(33:25):
more than eyebrows a couple two three eyebrows on that
kind of rate of return. They were going to be
making merchant loans to businesses, short term loans and high
cost loans called merchant cast advances. She ran this for
several years, netting one hundred ninety one million over a
period from October twenty twenty through August twenty twenty one.
(33:49):
Of that, investors lost nearly ninety million. And of course
it wouldn't be complete with a fraud or a negative
story without Wells Fargo again in the mix here for
Fannas for failing to properly adhere to their anti Monday
launery concerns, as they were the bank behind this MJA capital.
(34:09):
So just a really a traggic story obviously of course
for investors, but something that it's gonna continue. There's always
gonna be you know, bad apples out there, and this
one was a doozy.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
It's Yeah, it's kind of wild here, especially the part
that I found amazing on this. So the partner in
this was someone by the name of Pavel Ramon Ruiz Hernandez,
and he had already pled guilty. He pleaded guilty to
this in April of twenty three and was sentenced to
nine years and two months in prison. But the other
(34:43):
part of this, like they kind of buried the lead
on this quote, prosecutor said Tuesday. After MJ Capitol was
shut down by the FBI and Securities and Exchange Commission, Garcia,
Ruiz Hernandez and others launched a new similar ponzi scheme
in the fall of twenty twenty one.
Speaker 3 (34:57):
It reantied up.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
Like what.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
I mean, I just.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
It.
Speaker 2 (35:06):
It really takes a little bit of hootspa to be like, Hey,
I got caught Ponzie. What are we gonna do? Watch
another one before.
Speaker 3 (35:14):
We go to jail. You were shut down by the
FBI and the SEC. We're not talking about some podunk
local police unit.
Speaker 2 (35:23):
You at that point, like, what what do you think
is gonna happen? They've already gotten you once. You think
they're just gonna be like, wow, We're just gonna stop
paying attention to you while you wait for trial.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
You know, chuck, cross that case off the list, all set,
We'll never look at them again.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
So yeah, that part to me was just like, Wow,
you got caught once and you decided to immediately start
a new one. That's not something that you typically see.
So man, we've just been seeing all new lows in
terms of fraud this year. It's it's just been quite honestly,
I've said this before, there really is just not enough
(36:01):
shame in the world today.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
M M.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
Like there's a real problem when you're just like, hey,
I got caught ponziing and I'm gonna do it again,
and then not.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
Within no time, no time at all. Didn't let it
cool off, you know, like in those you know mafia
shows something, Hey, you know we're catching heat right now,
slow down a little bit, No, right back at it.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
Uh So Jaguar who last year, uh last week, rather
I kind of poop pooed the fact that they went
through this reband rebrand where ay their rebrand video didn't
have any cars in it, and b they're now capitalizing
the J G and U of Jaguar and getting rid
of the leaping Jaguars their image. They unveiled a concept
(36:46):
car I think it was over the weekend, and it's
kind of like, okay, so concept cars. A. If you're
not familiar with the the terminology their cars that companies
never build because it's just like, hey, here's what we
might look like in the future. And A this shows
like nothing because they're basically saying we're not gonna build this,
(37:09):
but we needed to show you something. B it looks horrible.
And see, I still don't know who this is targeted at,
Like we talked about this last week, where like they're
trying to get towards Hey, we want, you know, younger
people to buy our cars. The worst thing that you
(37:29):
can do when trying to convince your target demo to
do anything is make something that appeals directly to them.
I mentioned you remember cy on the Toyota brand. MM
it was geared towards young people. What happened. Young people
didn't buy them because they don't want to be like
talked down to as oh, like you need to have
something that's for you, No, they want young people want
things that older people have, and older people want things
(37:52):
that younger people have. So if you want to attract
younger people. Don't build a car that you think is
what younger people would like.
Speaker 3 (38:01):
Yeah, they you really don't see a lot of Jaguars
around anymore.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
No, their sales are down like sixty percent here over
not like decade over decade in the US. It's uh,
they have problems, but I don't think this is the answer.
Is the problem, Well, it's another problem. They got a
few problems, not as many as the double Ponzi people.
We're done for the day. We'll see you tomorrow on
the Financial Exchange
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