December 6, 2024 • 36 mins
On the second hour of today's show, Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong recap the news of the day and also bring up recent articles regarding stock market forecasts and how pricey stocks are getting. Should you simply ignore these? Plus, with cars getting older, are repair bills bound to get higher? A retirement expert says...don't retire? Paul LaMonica talks Verizon.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
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(00:20):
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(00:42):
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(01:06):
This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zanta and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Kicking off Hour two on the Financial Exchange is Chuck, Mike,
and Tucker with you on a Jobs Friday. Two hundred
and twenty seven thousand jobs created, though the unemployment rate
did rise slightly to four point two percent for the
month of November, few concerning signs underneath the hood as well.
So even though the headline number was good, it's one
that we looked at and said, yeah, there's a few
(01:33):
problems here that need to start showing a little bit
of recovery in the coming months. Nothing that is, you know,
a huge glaring red flag, but you know a few
things that need to be buttoned up in order for
us to say, yeah, the labor market is getting healthier
instead of continuing to weaken. Markets responding with kind of
(01:55):
a shrug for the most part, the dows up thirty
nine points, tenth of a percent, s Piece up twenty points,
so about a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq
is up one hundred and thirty four points. Nasdak strength
over the last week has been impressive, especially given the
last five months before that didn't really have much strength
in the Nasdaq. The tenure US Treasury is down one
(02:16):
basis point to four point one seven percent. We've got
oil off ninety seven cents today to sixty seven.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
To thirty three.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
That has also pushed the TRIPA national average for gas
prices down to three h two and six tenths of
a cent, down another six tenths from yesterday, So continuing
to make their way down towards that three dollars mark nationally.
We're not there yet, but uh, we might get there
next week. So a little bit of movement on that front.
(02:46):
And we've got gold today up ten sixty ounce to
twenty six to fifty nine and zero cents.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
I just like to add to zero cents. Yeah important?
Speaker 2 (02:55):
You know when something costs almost twenty seven hundred dollars,
no ounce, every cent counts, you know.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
I want to talk a piece about a piece from
the Wall Street Journal. Do you want to talk about cars?
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Though?
Speaker 3 (03:07):
No? Okay, but what do you got? I'm trying to
read it sideways. Is this wildly overvalued stock market doomed? Yes?
But maybe not yet.
Speaker 4 (03:17):
So I know it's a sensationalist headline, but I actually
think it fits pretty well into a point that we
have been attempting sensationalists.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
It's wishy washy, yes, but maybe not yet.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
Yeah, it's wishy washy, and it's a bad headline, but
terrible headline if if investors aren't there out there, aren't
really aware of this market right now. And trust me,
I talked to plenty of people who are not really
aware of just how pricey stocks are and just how
pessimistic big banks are about the long term future.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
I think they need to get a little bit educated.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
And so I kind of put this as like a
one of the more important general market pieces that the
Wall Street Journal has put together this entire year, And
so to frame it, big banks like Goldman Sachs Bank
of America are predicting that markets only return like zero
to three percent over the next decade and repeat something
(04:13):
that we saw in times like the two thousands decade
where markets just didn't really make any money. And if
you're not really prepared for something like that, but we
haven't seen it in twenty years, and it could really
ruin you.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Is there any evidence that they're any good at this? Though? None?
But why should I?
Speaker 2 (04:35):
I'm not saying that I should or shouldn't. But should
I listen to Goldman Sachs. No, I don't think you
should believe and fund your investment strategy based on them
thinking that markets are only going to do three percent
per year. But what I would say is that I
think there's a large portion of Americans who don't even.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Realize that that's a possibility.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
That's fair, And I think if you look at this, like,
let's look at a decade, and I'm using data here
from a website called Don't Quit your Day Job and
not good advice, but they calculate different historical returns for
different indices and things like that, and so the S
and P five hundred, if you will get ten year
(05:16):
periods historically, according to their data, the average return is
nine point three six nine points three six four three
four six percent, and the median fiftieth percentile returns are
is uh eight point six eight seven percent, pretty narrow.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
So well that that's again average and.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
Media, yep, I agree, but they're you know, it indicates
that that's a pretty good number to use.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
The S and P five hundred, according to them, has
returned under three percent per year for a decade. Eight
percent of the time. So ninety two percent of circumstances,
the S and P five hundred is beaten what Goldman
is saying it's going to do for the next decades.
So what I will say on this I looked back
(06:03):
just because I was curious. Goldman back in twenty twelve
said that the next decade twenty twelve through twenty two
would have eight percent equity returns over that time period,
which was kind of just a boring like average, Yeah, sure,
like you think stocks are gonna be average over the
next decade.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Like twenty twelve twenty two, How do I pay you
for this valuable information? They're probably pretty close, weren't they.
They were twenty twelve through twenty two.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
I mean they were probably better, so, like just looking
at it here, So twenty twelve was sixteen, twenty thirteen
was thirty two, twenty fourteen was thirteen, twenty fifteen was one,
twenty sixteen twelve, twenty seventeen, twenty one, twenty eighteen minus four,
twenty nineteen, thirty one, twenty twenty eighteen, twenty twenty one
(06:49):
was twenty eight percent. So it was probably like thirteen
or fourteen percent. But again, like they shot their shot
and whatever, it's it's fine.
Speaker 4 (06:59):
I think the pointed that the article is making, though,
is that when you can textualize those same returns around
periods of time that have put stocks as pricey as
they are right now, the results have been bad.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
They have been, but it still is a gutsy move
for Goldman to come out and be like, hey, stocks
are gonna be like bottom eighth percentile bad over the
next decade, and Bank of America is saying, hey, you
might get zero to one percent for the next year.
That is like bottom second percentile bad. Yeah, almost never happens.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
Now, the question is Bank of America, your analysts are
saying this, You're head of your bank is putting out
this projection, and.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
You just put out that next year the S and
P five hundred is gonna be up like ten.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Percent, right, And that would be what I ask Goldman
in Banked of America is when somebody walks into let's
use Bank of America because Goldman, it doesn't work this way.
But when somebody walks into your bank and speaks to
one of your Marrile investment.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
Manager, what are they saying?
Speaker 4 (08:02):
What are they telling those clients that are you know
that are saying, I have money here that I need
to do something well.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
Because here's the thing. If if Bank of America is saying,
let me see what they're twenty five.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
I think stocks are gonna earn zero to one percent.
Guess what ten Your treasury is earning like four point three.
So Bank of America's target, is they did this is
just to be funny, is six six hundred and sixty six.
That's their end of year target for next year ten
and a half percent gains based on where it was
four days ago when they made that prediction. So if
(08:33):
Bank of America is saying, hey, the next decade you're
gonna get one percent a year on stocks, but next
year you're gonna return ten, then that basically means, hey,
after next year, we expect zero, which then raises, not begs,
the question, dear Bank of America, after I invest in
your stocks next year, why should I invest in stocks
for the next nine years. It's a good question, like
(08:56):
because again this is what they are saying. Now, I
don't have a twelve month prediction for the S and
P five hundred. I don't have a one hundred and
twenty month prediction for the S and p.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
Five hundred.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
I'm not smart enough to look out ten years in
the future and tell you what stocks are going to return.
But when when Bank of America is saying, hey, your
stocks are going to return basically nothing for the next
ten years, but next year is going to be good,
So that means mems a lot of self service. So
that means that the next nine are going to be
(09:28):
really bad.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Huh.
Speaker 4 (09:30):
Yeah, And so this is what does one do with
all of this though?
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Like what am I supposed to do with this? Joe
Norma with a four oh one k? Ignore it? Yeah,
ignore it? Because you like.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
They they never come out and tell you, hey, we
were wrong and here's how we've adjusted our model to
get better. Yeah, and they only tell you these once
a year. That you notice how they never tell you
the next month's price target.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
I would Here's what I would say. I wouldn't say
ignore it.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
I would say, tell me what happens to your per
financial situation if stocks If.
Speaker 3 (10:01):
They're right about which parts.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
About the next decade returning nothing for stocks? Can you
survive if that happens? Like, that's an important question for
everyone to ask themselves. So and that's not because Bank
of America is saying that it's going to happen. That's
because if you're evaluating your own situation and you haven't
tested that theory, then you're doing yourself a disservice anytime.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Yeah, I do think a fair question is, hey, can
I assume that stocks are going to be as good
as they've been for the last ten years?
Speaker 3 (10:32):
I would probably not.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
You know, It's like that's a tough performance to repeat,
and if you're banking on that for your financial security,
you might need a little bit of work.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
Let's take a quick break here.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
When we come back, we'll talk about how Americans cars
are getting older and creakier, and we're else gonna do
a little bit of trivia right after this.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
Thanks to US six one, seven, three, six two thirteen
eighty five with your comments and questions about today's show,
and let us know what you think about the stories
we are covering. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Piece from the Wall Street Journal Americans cars keep getting
older and creaky as the headline. The subheader is drivers
are skimping to save a few bucks. That could mean
bigger bills down the road and a rebound for the
parts and service companies, so.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
No, which part.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
All of its older and cars are getting older and creaker.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
That's true. Drivers are skimping to save a few bucks.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
They're not doing this because they're like, yeah, I just
I love saving money and this is the best. They're
doing it because they don't have the money to pay
for those repairs. So when the bigger ones come, they're
not going to be able to pay for those either, right.
Speaker 4 (11:48):
I mean, it's getting bad enough that people are foregoing
auto insurance on their cars, right, which is illegal in
every state of the New Hampshire.
Speaker 2 (11:57):
It's not like, hey, you know what, I'm to put
off this three hundred dollar bill so I can spend
three thousand dollars in a couple of years. Everyone who's
ever owned anything knows that if you can, you do
some preventive maintenance to save a big bill down the road.
I'm just not buying that. Americans are sitting there going
like they like, Americans have not forgotten this service companies. Yeah,
(12:20):
we're just trying to put this off as long as
possible so that we can spend ten times as much later.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
Unfortunately, too, Like you've talked about stuff around the home
and how easy it is to pull up a YouTube video.
I did the same thing last night. I needed to
unclog a bathtub drain and I didn't have the tool
I needed to remove the the actual drain, and I
did pull up a quick YouTube video found out all
you need is a golf called and a squirrel and
you're good.
Speaker 3 (12:45):
Needlenose pliers and figured it out.
Speaker 4 (12:47):
And that's not really doable in cars that were built
over the last decade. Some things are you can train
your oil, you can do some things on your own,
but the diagnostics tools required to even figure out what's
wrong with your car these days are not really available
to the general public.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
By the way, that that's also starting to happen with
some home stuff as well. Yeah, you will get anything,
not anything, but a lot of stuff that's HVAC related
and the tech that goes into it now and it's
not as simple as Okay, I can do this with
whatever's in my garage. It might mean that you have
to have specific training on the computer parts for you know,
whatever is in your boiler, whatever is in your you know,
(13:32):
whatever your air conditioning.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
It's it's not as simple as it used to be.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
I do get the older cars piece though, I mean
with the pricing of cars these days, it's just.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
With the pricing of cars that people are choosing these days. Yeah,
I maintain anyone who wants to can get a very
capable vehicle for thirty two thousand dollars. You don't have
to be spending the forty eight thousand dollars average that
Americans spends on new cars. You know, you can get very,
(14:07):
very capable, very comfortable vehicles in the twenties brand new.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
I drive a twenty twenty two Honda Civic, and my
cars are so old and lame that my kids call
it the cool car.
Speaker 2 (14:20):
We have three cars. The cool one is the Civic.
I hate to know what the bad ones are. Well,
the uncool ones are real. They're really uncool. We've we've
got a ugo, a covered wagon, and a dog sled.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
Yeah, it's gotten bad around the Armstrong House.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
South Korean president could declare martial law againstis ruling party leader.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
So the reason that I can laugh about this is
because basically nothing's happened at this point, Like, no one's died.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Like I get that it's.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Nerve wracking for those who are over in Korea, like
I have three buddies who live in Korea right now
to are Korean and from there, and one is stationed
there in the military, and you know they're like a
little frustrated and a little on edge because of all this.
Speaker 4 (15:07):
Obviously well and also like you think about South Korea,
you gotta be some of the most amazingly resilient people
when it comes to emergency type situations. Your next door
neighbor launches rockets and threatens to bomb you every other day.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
You have like a certain sense of calm about stuff
because you just you have to. The best thing I
saw so far out of the protests on this, there
was one there were probably I don't know, maybe a
thousand people gathered in some square in Soul and they
had they had written an impeachment song to the tune
of Police Navidad, where it basically the whole premise of
(15:44):
it was the only way we could have a happy
Christmas is if un Is impeached, and so I created
but it was fantastic, and it was in Korean, so
I couldn't understand it, but I just thought it was
really good. But okay, so you try to surprise coup
on Tuesday. Now, you're telling people that you're gonna try
(16:06):
to coop again maybe this weekend. This we couldn't do
it with the element of surprise, but if we tell
people it's coming, maybe we'll get different results.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
Like what what are you trying to do here? At
this point? Yeah, you're you are out, sir.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
You know, I mean, your acting defense chief has told
reporters that you're gonna that he's going to refuse the
Institute of Martial law. So how are you gonna pull
this one off? You know who this guy belongs with?
You weren't It was Paul who was here on Wednesday.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
Yeah, we covered a story of a couple of Miami
I think they were from Miami from Florida, a couple
of Florida business people that got twenty years in jail
for a Ponzi scheme that they ran. And the fascinating
thing about them was so they got caught by the
SEC in the fall of twenty twenty one, and then
(16:56):
when they were you know, released on bail or their
own reconnaissance or whatever, started back and they started another
one right after. Wow, It's like okay, like they're probably
looking at you at this point, Well, you got hafty
legal bills you gotta pay. They should get together with
this guy being investigated by Hey, my first coup failed,
so you know what I'm gonna do a week later.
(17:17):
I'm gonna tell you I'm cooing and try again. We're
gonna recoop. Let's recoop mallagad. Actually, no, you it's great
because of the spelling. We can try to recoop the
recoop and see how many. Yeah, I'm sorry that it's
(17:39):
pretty fair. Again, this is actually pretty scary stuff. They're
like how many?
Speaker 4 (17:42):
How many American military members are stationed in Korea? Like
this is this is serious stuff, but it is kind
of funny.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
It's the first one was serious. When someone tells you
they're going to coup again, I just don't know that
it's that serious. Then, yeah, I mean sure, Like, but
because it's right next to North Korea, you're sitting there
and you're like, hey, does does Kim Jong un think
that this is the time for him?
Speaker 3 (18:06):
Right? Probably not, because he's also not dumb, But I
don't know, are you sure about that?
Speaker 2 (18:14):
Yeah, he's a very horrible human being, but he's not stupid. Like,
you don't exercise dictatorial control over an entire country by
being very dumb.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
Fair.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
He might be a horrible human being, but I don't
think he's stupid. Quick break here, we've got the trivia
answer after this.
Speaker 1 (18:34):
Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day.
It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
Mike, let's talk a little bit about this great title,
one of my favorite titles from a piece that we've
seen this year. The piece is fine as well, but
the title A retirement expert's best advice, don't retire that sucks?
Speaker 3 (19:00):
So what is it you say you do here?
Speaker 4 (19:07):
So, yeah, this is a This is a piece by
Jessica Hall about an economist named Alicia Mannell who has
made a career around, you know, retirement economics.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
And by the way, she's eighty two and still working Manila's.
So she's following her own advice.
Speaker 4 (19:21):
She is following advice, and based on her research, in
good economic times, forty percent of retirees cannot maintain their
standard of living in retirement, while in bad economic times
that figure rises to fifty percent. So take that for
what you will, but it kind of lines up with
a lot of statistics that we know about that you know,
half of Americans aren't really saving for retirement, that there's
(19:43):
a huge portion of Americans that don't have any money invested.
I think it's about half of Americans have no money
invested in the stock market, for example, And so I
don't think I find it immensely surprising. The advice really stinks.
I mean, don't retire your best retirement advice. But I
have a different, I guess twist on it that I
(20:05):
would say is useful.
Speaker 3 (20:06):
Go ahead, No, no, you go, because you might have
the same twist I do.
Speaker 4 (20:09):
So where I see mistakes from folks is retiring because
they feel like they're at that point where they should
are supposed to retire, And that is just a dumb idea.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
You should retire because there are specific.
Speaker 4 (20:25):
Things that you want to accomplish now that work is over.
Not because hey, my employer said I can't work past
sixty five, or my uncle, my cousin, my nephew, my
you know this, that or the other. My father retired
at sixty six, sixty seven, seventy years old, and so
that's when I'm going to retire, because that's when it's done.
Those are bad reasons to retire. Good reasons to retire is, Hey,
(20:47):
I've worked my rear end off. I have a bunch
of things that I am healthy enough to accomplish and
will have time to do so, So I am making
a plan and I'm going to retire.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
Now, that was what I was going to say. Was
your twist?
Speaker 2 (20:59):
So you said it was forty percent of people have
to change their standard of living in retirement.
Speaker 3 (21:04):
Yes, is what she said. Can't maintain that standard of living,
so likely have to change it.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
My question is on the other side, Hey, what's the
percentage that could have retired earlier but didn't because they
were too nervous to fault that they were going to
fall into that forty percent? And I don't know, Like,
is it ten is it twenty percent of the retirees
that fall into that bucket?
Speaker 3 (21:23):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
But how many people are out there who are saying, look,
I do want to retire because I'm tired. I want
to spend time with the grandkids, or I want to
go travel the world, or I want to go build
a sailboat and live alone on it. Like whatever whatever
your thing is, that's fine, Like it doesn't have to
be what anyone else wants.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
You to do.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
But how many people put it off an extra year,
two years, three years, four years, And it's because they're
too nervous about retiring. And then I've seen it a
number ten and then something happens and they get sick
or whatever.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
That's where I was gonna go to, which is a
bit sad.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
And then they miss out on something that they really
want that they could have had.
Speaker 4 (22:01):
Because ask people who are on their deathbed what their
largest regrets are in life.
Speaker 3 (22:09):
It's almost never about not saving enough for retirement.
Speaker 4 (22:12):
It's always about, you know, I had this opportunity, I
didn't take it. I should have done that, you know,
I should have spent more time with family. I wish
I had taken this opportunity or been just a little
bit more confident in my decision making process when I
was younger. It's never ah, man, you know, when I
was eighty two, I had a worse lifestyle in thought
because I didn't put enough my four one k are
(22:33):
you kidding me? So I'm not telling everybody that you
can afford to retire that that is definitely far from
the truth. I am telling people that I frequently see
folks who work in a job that they hate longer
than they have to because they're worried about falling into
this forty percent sure, and they're worried about it with
(22:55):
zero evidence that they will. Yeah, And so if you're
listening right now, my point would be, I don't know
which bucket you fall into. I don't know if you
can afford to retire or not. But if you don't
know either, then spend some time figuring it out, because,
like I said, when when when I speak with folks
about their regrets in life, it's almost never about man,
(23:20):
I wish I had worked a few extra years there.
It's always about, oh, I wish I had spent my
younger years better. If you have questions like that, if
you don't know which bucket you fall into and whether
or not you can afford to retire, please call the
folks at Armstrong Advisory Group. We do this for our
clients every day. We assess whether or not they can
continue to maintain their lifestyle after they are cutting off
(23:42):
their one way of pulling in an income for their
entire lives. Call us at arms Armstrong Advisory Group at
eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one. We
offer free one on one consultations about this very subject.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Again.
Speaker 4 (23:57):
That phone number four the Armstrong Advisory Group is eight
hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
your own financial, tax and estate planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
Mike, was it last week that we were covering the
piece on financial scams versus financial fraud?
Speaker 3 (24:25):
Yes? Maybe it was. Whenever it was, I got a
new one yesterday. I meant to talk tempted fraud or scam.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
Yes, I meant to talk about it during yesterday's show
because I got a text message during one of the
segments and it said that I had a parcel that
was stopped at the Canadian border because there was an
inaccurate ZIP code, and that I had to reply to
this and then I would be sent a link in
order to get my information to Canadian customs so that
(24:53):
my package could get to me.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
Important.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
Now, I don't know very much about how things work
at the Canadian US border, but here's one thing I
do know. The first is if something's coming into the
United States, it's not going through Canadian customs, it's going
through US customs. So I picked up on that right away.
(25:18):
Behind that, you hadn't ordered any fur hats recently. Beyond that,
so my zip code was wrong on this parcel coming
from Canada, but my phone number was correct correct, and
the Mounties just text.
Speaker 3 (25:31):
You, yeah, that's there again. Way of reaching out.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
The big thing that I say on all this, because look,
some of this stuff can't get kind of scary and
kind of spooky. If you get anyone who is texting you,
calling you saying you need to send money or fill
out this link right now, hang up, put down the phone,
don't text back. Find a contact number on a piece
of paper that you have in your house for whatever
(25:56):
the thing is, or talk to a friend who can
get you the contact number from the internet.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
If you're not like an Internet person.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
Like, find a way to get an actual contact number
and use that to actually figure out if something is
going on or not. Do not, under any circumstances start
giving information to someone who says you need to move
money right now, or give them information right away. I
do this, by the way, even with legitimate things. Someone
(26:23):
who I work with sent me an email yesterday with
an attachment in it. Before I opened it, called them up, Hey,
did you send me an attachment? Yep, I did, great,
I'm going to open this now.
Speaker 3 (26:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
Granted, I'm a little paranoid on this stuff, but an
ounce of paranoia prevents like a whole bunch of money
being stolen.
Speaker 4 (26:40):
I think that's my key message is adopt those practices
of paranoia now, because what any cybersecurity expert will tell
you is with the pace of development on artificial intelligence,
it's about to become orders of magnitude more difficult to detect.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Let's take a quick break on that note, and when
we come back, we're going to be joined by paul
A Monica from Barons.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
Right after this, breaking business and financial news first throughout
the day. Only here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Find daily interviews and full shows of the Financial Exchange
on how are YouTube page, get cut up on anything
and everything you might have missed. This is the Financial
Exchange Radio Network, Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
Speaker 5 (27:30):
The Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled
American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. With the holiday season approaching,
now is a great time to say thank you to
our great American heroes by making a donation at DAV
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(27:54):
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Speaker 2 (28:00):
We're now joined by Paul Amonica from Barons. We're talking
about a small little telecom company by the name of
Verizon today.
Speaker 3 (28:09):
Paul, how you doing good? Thanks? How are you guys doing?
We're doing well. What's gott Verison in the news? In
your eyes?
Speaker 6 (28:16):
Yeah? I think Verizon is just an interesting, you know
stock to look ahead to in twenty twenty five. It
hasn't done poorly per se, up about like thirteen percent
this year, but that lags the broader market by a
decent amount, and it really is significantly smaller gain than
(28:37):
what we've seen for AT and T and Tea Mobile.
So I think it just goes to show that, you know,
the market might be underestimating Verizon's ability to you know,
continue to grow in a consolidating wireless market and also
pay a dividend that is a lot more attractive than
(28:58):
what AT and T even hasn't clearly even more attractive
than bond yields which have been falling lately.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
What is the dividend on Verizon these days?
Speaker 6 (29:07):
At last check, it was about six point seven percent,
So that's a very very strong dividend that would make
it probably the leader and the so called dogs of
the day, the highest yielding dowstocks.
Speaker 3 (29:20):
When you look at it.
Speaker 2 (29:22):
The part that is just kind of, I guess, confusing,
but also interesting to me on one level is look,
if you sit here and look at the long term
chart of Verizon, the stock is at the same place
it was at nineteen ninety eight right now. Obviously you've
collected the dividends over that time.
Speaker 3 (29:40):
You know, arguably this has.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
Been a time where there's been a lot of excitement
about expansion in telecoms, whether you know, moving people into
cell phones first, then to data plans, then you know,
five G and things like that. If Verizon stock has
been so stagnant over this twenty five year period, for
someone you know who looks at Verizon as longer term hold,
(30:01):
what are some thoughts as to how the next twenty
five years could be different given all the excitement and
theory about telecom for the last couple decades.
Speaker 6 (30:09):
Yeah, I mean that's a great question. I mean, make
a mistake. I mean, the telecom business is by no
means the Magnificent seven. You're not going to get Nvidia
type levels of growth from Verizon or AT and tier
Team Mobile. But I think the good news is that
Verizon has stable and steady growth, which should help it
(30:31):
if the economy inevitably slows down. You know, we're talking
about the soft landing for twenty twenty five, but cycles
don't go on forever. There's eventually going to be another recession.
And I think, you know, Verizon investors can really appreciate
that strong yield. And again, this is now pretty much
(30:53):
an oligopoly, even if you're throwing cable companies like Comcasts
into the mix. Verizon as a very very strong market
share position in the converged telecom world. And that even
includes the old fiber of the home you know business
as well, you know, kind of traditional landlines aren't going away.
(31:15):
Entirely in Verizons making a deal to by Frontier Communications,
you know, which a deal that could close in early
twenty twenty six that could boost growth as well.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Paul, Did anything ever come out of Verizon's acquisitions of
Aol and Yahoo when they combined them into OATH, I
think was the name of it.
Speaker 3 (31:34):
Is that still around? Is that doing anything at this point?
Speaker 6 (31:38):
I mean not for Verizon. I mean that is in
the same way that AT and T I think made
a bit of miscalculation with owning both content and the
distribution side, to the chagrin of all my former colleagues
at CNN when we were in the media was part
of AT and T. I think Verizon definitely realized that
(32:03):
Oath was, you know, probably a bit of a miscalculation.
So they don't have that, you know, Aol Yahoo business anymore.
That's you know, private equity owned at this point, I'm
trying to remember who it was, if it was Apollo
that you know bought it or you know, but they're
out of that. Yeah, they sold that in twenty twenty
(32:24):
one to Apollo Global Management, So that's not Horizon Media
is no longer a part of the story, is which
I think investors are happy about.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
Sure, is is there anything exciting that they're cooking up
as is six G on the horizon, Like what what's
next from them?
Speaker 6 (32:39):
Yeah? Yeah, I mean inevitably, I mean we we all
know that in the same way that you know, anyone
who's been around long enough to remember when it was
three G and then it became four G and five G. Inevitably,
there will be faster you know networks. But you know
that's a double edged sword. Once we get to that point,
you're going to have to have Verizon as well as
(33:01):
AT and T and T Mobile spend aggressively on network buildouts.
I think right now we're still hopefully at the stage
for investors where most of the five G investments have
already been made and deployed, and now it's a matter
of reaping the benefits of them, you know, potentially with
(33:22):
you know, lower churn. Customers are hopefully happy with the
services they have and you know, adding more subscriptions, you know,
to the monthly pie. You know, you know, that's something
that I think Verizon as well as AT and T
and T Mobile investors are counting on for the next
few years. I mean, six G inevitably will happen, but
I think you know we're not there yet.
Speaker 3 (33:44):
How many g's is enough? Paul?
Speaker 5 (33:46):
Oh?
Speaker 6 (33:48):
I mean I hope to live long enough that we
wind up in the double digit g's. I'm not so sure.
I count on that I fell alive when ten G
whatever that.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
Is, who was it?
Speaker 2 (34:01):
One of the one of the telecoms came out with
a t G that they had to like retract because
of marketing purposes.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
I think I forget who it was, but.
Speaker 6 (34:09):
Yeah, blankings, I don't want to identify anyone and accused
them of a false advertising, but I do vaguely remember
that there was a a false claim of sort of
you know, ludicrous speeds to quote space palls.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
Fantastic, Paul. We appreciate you joining us. Have a great
weekend and we'll catch up soon.
Speaker 6 (34:32):
Thanks a lot. I have a go on, guys.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
It's Paul Amonica from Baron's talking about very zultan elso
known as Verizon.
Speaker 3 (34:40):
It appears that it was Exfinity by the way, Sure
why not? Yeah? Yeah, it's fine. What else you got?
Speaker 1 (34:47):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (34:48):
I would like to go to Weimo because I am
a new Waimo convert and if they could just figure
out how to drive in snowy, icy, rainy one way
Street Boston.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
I'd be all over them eighty six. Yeah, WEIMO.
Speaker 4 (35:02):
The self driving car unit of Alphabet is expanding to Miami,
which seems like another area that so long it's not
in the middle of a hurricane, would be pretty easy
for them to navigate. So seeing some success both in
San Francisco and Phoenix, I believe are the only two
areas they currently operate, and adding a third one in
the United States by twenty twenty six are their plans.
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Yeah, this is exciting to me in terms of what
they're they're doing here. Again, it's a slow and deliberate rollout,
but it also again you think about all the data
that they have and all of the rides they're actually undertaking.
I think they're now up to doing about a million
rides a month. The idea that Tesla's going to come
in and suddenly have every car able to do this nationwide,
(35:48):
it's laughable.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
It just doesn't pass the sniff test.
Speaker 1 (35:52):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (35:53):
One other thing that I'm just confused by all of
the vehicles are Jaguars. Just don't really understand that one.
Speaker 3 (36:00):
Strange partnership it is, you know, you'd figure.
Speaker 4 (36:03):
Something a little bit cheaper would make more sense there.
But nonetheless, they're all Jaguars, Right, how about a Honda
Ford or right with Akia, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
There's plenty to choose from, like, take your pick, but
h makes you wonder what percentage of Jaguars sales are
going just to.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
A lot of them.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
Let's take a quick break here for the entire weekend.
Hope you all have a great one. We're gonna see
you back here on Monday, kicking off new week on
Financial Exchange
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
(00:20):
any investment decisions. Armstrong Advisory and the advertisers heard on
this program do not endorse each other or their services.
Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
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Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong, your exclusive look
at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
(00:42):
your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
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heroes by visiting DAV five KMUS and making a donation today.
The DAV five K Boston is presented by Veterans Development Corporation.
(01:06):
This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zanta and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Kicking off Hour two on the Financial Exchange is Chuck, Mike,
and Tucker with you on a Jobs Friday. Two hundred
and twenty seven thousand jobs created, though the unemployment rate
did rise slightly to four point two percent for the
month of November, few concerning signs underneath the hood as well.
So even though the headline number was good, it's one
that we looked at and said, yeah, there's a few
(01:33):
problems here that need to start showing a little bit
of recovery in the coming months. Nothing that is, you know,
a huge glaring red flag, but you know a few
things that need to be buttoned up in order for
us to say, yeah, the labor market is getting healthier
instead of continuing to weaken. Markets responding with kind of
(01:55):
a shrug for the most part, the dows up thirty
nine points, tenth of a percent, s Piece up twenty points,
so about a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq
is up one hundred and thirty four points. Nasdak strength
over the last week has been impressive, especially given the
last five months before that didn't really have much strength
in the Nasdaq. The tenure US Treasury is down one
(02:16):
basis point to four point one seven percent. We've got
oil off ninety seven cents today to sixty seven.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
To thirty three.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
That has also pushed the TRIPA national average for gas
prices down to three h two and six tenths of
a cent, down another six tenths from yesterday, So continuing
to make their way down towards that three dollars mark nationally.
We're not there yet, but uh, we might get there
next week. So a little bit of movement on that front.
(02:46):
And we've got gold today up ten sixty ounce to
twenty six to fifty nine and zero cents.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
I just like to add to zero cents. Yeah important?
Speaker 2 (02:55):
You know when something costs almost twenty seven hundred dollars,
no ounce, every cent counts, you know.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
I want to talk a piece about a piece from
the Wall Street Journal. Do you want to talk about cars?
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Though?
Speaker 3 (03:07):
No? Okay, but what do you got? I'm trying to
read it sideways. Is this wildly overvalued stock market doomed? Yes?
But maybe not yet.
Speaker 4 (03:17):
So I know it's a sensationalist headline, but I actually
think it fits pretty well into a point that we
have been attempting sensationalists.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
It's wishy washy, yes, but maybe not yet.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
Yeah, it's wishy washy, and it's a bad headline, but
terrible headline if if investors aren't there out there, aren't
really aware of this market right now. And trust me,
I talked to plenty of people who are not really
aware of just how pricey stocks are and just how
pessimistic big banks are about the long term future.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
I think they need to get a little bit educated.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
And so I kind of put this as like a
one of the more important general market pieces that the
Wall Street Journal has put together this entire year, And
so to frame it, big banks like Goldman Sachs Bank
of America are predicting that markets only return like zero
to three percent over the next decade and repeat something
(04:13):
that we saw in times like the two thousands decade
where markets just didn't really make any money. And if
you're not really prepared for something like that, but we
haven't seen it in twenty years, and it could really
ruin you.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Is there any evidence that they're any good at this? Though? None?
But why should I?
Speaker 2 (04:35):
I'm not saying that I should or shouldn't. But should
I listen to Goldman Sachs. No, I don't think you
should believe and fund your investment strategy based on them
thinking that markets are only going to do three percent
per year. But what I would say is that I
think there's a large portion of Americans who don't even.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Realize that that's a possibility.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
That's fair, And I think if you look at this, like,
let's look at a decade, and I'm using data here
from a website called Don't Quit your Day Job and
not good advice, but they calculate different historical returns for
different indices and things like that, and so the S
and P five hundred, if you will get ten year
(05:16):
periods historically, according to their data, the average return is
nine point three six nine points three six four three
four six percent, and the median fiftieth percentile returns are
is uh eight point six eight seven percent, pretty narrow.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
So well that that's again average and.
Speaker 4 (05:35):
Media, yep, I agree, but they're you know, it indicates
that that's a pretty good number to use.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
The S and P five hundred, according to them, has
returned under three percent per year for a decade. Eight
percent of the time. So ninety two percent of circumstances,
the S and P five hundred is beaten what Goldman
is saying it's going to do for the next decades.
So what I will say on this I looked back
(06:03):
just because I was curious. Goldman back in twenty twelve
said that the next decade twenty twelve through twenty two
would have eight percent equity returns over that time period,
which was kind of just a boring like average, Yeah, sure,
like you think stocks are gonna be average over the
next decade.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Like twenty twelve twenty two, How do I pay you
for this valuable information? They're probably pretty close, weren't they.
They were twenty twelve through twenty two.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
I mean they were probably better, so, like just looking
at it here, So twenty twelve was sixteen, twenty thirteen
was thirty two, twenty fourteen was thirteen, twenty fifteen was one,
twenty sixteen twelve, twenty seventeen, twenty one, twenty eighteen minus four,
twenty nineteen, thirty one, twenty twenty eighteen, twenty twenty one
(06:49):
was twenty eight percent. So it was probably like thirteen
or fourteen percent. But again, like they shot their shot
and whatever, it's it's fine.
Speaker 4 (06:59):
I think the pointed that the article is making, though,
is that when you can textualize those same returns around
periods of time that have put stocks as pricey as
they are right now, the results have been bad.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
They have been, but it still is a gutsy move
for Goldman to come out and be like, hey, stocks
are gonna be like bottom eighth percentile bad over the
next decade, and Bank of America is saying, hey, you
might get zero to one percent for the next year.
That is like bottom second percentile bad. Yeah, almost never happens.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
Now, the question is Bank of America, your analysts are
saying this, You're head of your bank is putting out
this projection, and.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
You just put out that next year the S and
P five hundred is gonna be up like ten.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Percent, right, And that would be what I ask Goldman
in Banked of America is when somebody walks into let's
use Bank of America because Goldman, it doesn't work this way.
But when somebody walks into your bank and speaks to
one of your Marrile investment.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
Manager, what are they saying?
Speaker 4 (08:02):
What are they telling those clients that are you know
that are saying, I have money here that I need
to do something well.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
Because here's the thing. If if Bank of America is saying,
let me see what they're twenty five.
Speaker 4 (08:12):
I think stocks are gonna earn zero to one percent.
Guess what ten Your treasury is earning like four point three.
So Bank of America's target, is they did this is
just to be funny, is six six hundred and sixty six.
That's their end of year target for next year ten
and a half percent gains based on where it was
four days ago when they made that prediction. So if
(08:33):
Bank of America is saying, hey, the next decade you're
gonna get one percent a year on stocks, but next
year you're gonna return ten, then that basically means, hey,
after next year, we expect zero, which then raises, not begs,
the question, dear Bank of America, after I invest in
your stocks next year, why should I invest in stocks
for the next nine years. It's a good question, like
(08:56):
because again this is what they are saying. Now, I
don't have a twelve month prediction for the S and
P five hundred. I don't have a one hundred and
twenty month prediction for the S and p.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
Five hundred.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
I'm not smart enough to look out ten years in
the future and tell you what stocks are going to return.
But when when Bank of America is saying, hey, your
stocks are going to return basically nothing for the next
ten years, but next year is going to be good,
So that means mems a lot of self service. So
that means that the next nine are going to be
(09:28):
really bad.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Huh.
Speaker 4 (09:30):
Yeah, And so this is what does one do with
all of this though?
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Like what am I supposed to do with this? Joe
Norma with a four oh one k? Ignore it? Yeah,
ignore it? Because you like.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
They they never come out and tell you, hey, we
were wrong and here's how we've adjusted our model to
get better. Yeah, and they only tell you these once
a year. That you notice how they never tell you
the next month's price target.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
I would Here's what I would say. I wouldn't say
ignore it.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
I would say, tell me what happens to your per
financial situation if stocks If.
Speaker 3 (10:01):
They're right about which parts.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
About the next decade returning nothing for stocks? Can you
survive if that happens? Like, that's an important question for
everyone to ask themselves. So and that's not because Bank
of America is saying that it's going to happen. That's
because if you're evaluating your own situation and you haven't
tested that theory, then you're doing yourself a disservice anytime.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Yeah, I do think a fair question is, hey, can
I assume that stocks are going to be as good
as they've been for the last ten years?
Speaker 3 (10:32):
I would probably not.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
You know, It's like that's a tough performance to repeat,
and if you're banking on that for your financial security,
you might need a little bit of work.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
Let's take a quick break here.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
When we come back, we'll talk about how Americans cars
are getting older and creakier, and we're else gonna do
a little bit of trivia right after this.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
Thanks to US six one, seven, three, six two thirteen
eighty five with your comments and questions about today's show,
and let us know what you think about the stories
we are covering. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Piece from the Wall Street Journal Americans cars keep getting
older and creaky as the headline. The subheader is drivers
are skimping to save a few bucks. That could mean
bigger bills down the road and a rebound for the
parts and service companies, so.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
No, which part.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
All of its older and cars are getting older and creaker.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
That's true. Drivers are skimping to save a few bucks.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
They're not doing this because they're like, yeah, I just
I love saving money and this is the best. They're
doing it because they don't have the money to pay
for those repairs. So when the bigger ones come, they're
not going to be able to pay for those either, right.
Speaker 4 (11:48):
I mean, it's getting bad enough that people are foregoing
auto insurance on their cars, right, which is illegal in
every state of the New Hampshire.
Speaker 2 (11:57):
It's not like, hey, you know what, I'm to put
off this three hundred dollar bill so I can spend
three thousand dollars in a couple of years. Everyone who's
ever owned anything knows that if you can, you do
some preventive maintenance to save a big bill down the road.
I'm just not buying that. Americans are sitting there going
like they like, Americans have not forgotten this service companies. Yeah,
(12:20):
we're just trying to put this off as long as
possible so that we can spend ten times as much later.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
Unfortunately, too, Like you've talked about stuff around the home
and how easy it is to pull up a YouTube video.
I did the same thing last night. I needed to
unclog a bathtub drain and I didn't have the tool
I needed to remove the the actual drain, and I
did pull up a quick YouTube video found out all
you need is a golf called and a squirrel and
you're good.
Speaker 3 (12:45):
Needlenose pliers and figured it out.
Speaker 4 (12:47):
And that's not really doable in cars that were built
over the last decade. Some things are you can train
your oil, you can do some things on your own,
but the diagnostics tools required to even figure out what's
wrong with your car these days are not really available
to the general public.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
By the way, that that's also starting to happen with
some home stuff as well. Yeah, you will get anything,
not anything, but a lot of stuff that's HVAC related
and the tech that goes into it now and it's
not as simple as Okay, I can do this with
whatever's in my garage. It might mean that you have
to have specific training on the computer parts for you know,
whatever is in your boiler, whatever is in your you know,
(13:32):
whatever your air conditioning.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
It's it's not as simple as it used to be.
Speaker 4 (13:39):
I do get the older cars piece though, I mean
with the pricing of cars these days, it's just.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
With the pricing of cars that people are choosing these days. Yeah,
I maintain anyone who wants to can get a very
capable vehicle for thirty two thousand dollars. You don't have
to be spending the forty eight thousand dollars average that
Americans spends on new cars. You know, you can get very,
(14:07):
very capable, very comfortable vehicles in the twenties brand new.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
I drive a twenty twenty two Honda Civic, and my
cars are so old and lame that my kids call
it the cool car.
Speaker 2 (14:20):
We have three cars. The cool one is the Civic.
I hate to know what the bad ones are. Well,
the uncool ones are real. They're really uncool. We've we've
got a ugo, a covered wagon, and a dog sled.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
Yeah, it's gotten bad around the Armstrong House.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
South Korean president could declare martial law againstis ruling party leader.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
So the reason that I can laugh about this is
because basically nothing's happened at this point, Like, no one's died.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Like I get that it's.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Nerve wracking for those who are over in Korea, like
I have three buddies who live in Korea right now
to are Korean and from there, and one is stationed
there in the military, and you know they're like a
little frustrated and a little on edge because of all this.
Speaker 4 (15:07):
Obviously well and also like you think about South Korea,
you gotta be some of the most amazingly resilient people
when it comes to emergency type situations. Your next door
neighbor launches rockets and threatens to bomb you every other day.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
You have like a certain sense of calm about stuff
because you just you have to. The best thing I
saw so far out of the protests on this, there
was one there were probably I don't know, maybe a
thousand people gathered in some square in Soul and they
had they had written an impeachment song to the tune
of Police Navidad, where it basically the whole premise of
(15:44):
it was the only way we could have a happy
Christmas is if un Is impeached, and so I created
but it was fantastic, and it was in Korean, so
I couldn't understand it, but I just thought it was
really good. But okay, so you try to surprise coup
on Tuesday. Now, you're telling people that you're gonna try
(16:06):
to coop again maybe this weekend. This we couldn't do
it with the element of surprise, but if we tell
people it's coming, maybe we'll get different results.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
Like what what are you trying to do here? At
this point? Yeah, you're you are out, sir.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
You know, I mean, your acting defense chief has told
reporters that you're gonna that he's going to refuse the
Institute of Martial law. So how are you gonna pull
this one off? You know who this guy belongs with?
You weren't It was Paul who was here on Wednesday.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
Yeah, we covered a story of a couple of Miami
I think they were from Miami from Florida, a couple
of Florida business people that got twenty years in jail
for a Ponzi scheme that they ran. And the fascinating
thing about them was so they got caught by the
SEC in the fall of twenty twenty one, and then
(16:56):
when they were you know, released on bail or their
own reconnaissance or whatever, started back and they started another
one right after. Wow, It's like okay, like they're probably
looking at you at this point, Well, you got hafty
legal bills you gotta pay. They should get together with
this guy being investigated by Hey, my first coup failed,
so you know what I'm gonna do a week later.
(17:17):
I'm gonna tell you I'm cooing and try again. We're
gonna recoop. Let's recoop mallagad. Actually, no, you it's great
because of the spelling. We can try to recoop the
recoop and see how many. Yeah, I'm sorry that it's
(17:39):
pretty fair. Again, this is actually pretty scary stuff. They're
like how many?
Speaker 4 (17:42):
How many American military members are stationed in Korea? Like
this is this is serious stuff, but it is kind
of funny.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
It's the first one was serious. When someone tells you
they're going to coup again, I just don't know that
it's that serious. Then, yeah, I mean sure, Like, but
because it's right next to North Korea, you're sitting there
and you're like, hey, does does Kim Jong un think
that this is the time for him?
Speaker 3 (18:06):
Right? Probably not, because he's also not dumb, But I
don't know, are you sure about that?
Speaker 2 (18:14):
Yeah, he's a very horrible human being, but he's not stupid. Like,
you don't exercise dictatorial control over an entire country by
being very dumb.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
Fair.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
He might be a horrible human being, but I don't
think he's stupid. Quick break here, we've got the trivia
answer after this.
Speaker 1 (18:34):
Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day.
It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
Mike, let's talk a little bit about this great title,
one of my favorite titles from a piece that we've
seen this year. The piece is fine as well, but
the title A retirement expert's best advice, don't retire that sucks?
Speaker 3 (19:00):
So what is it you say you do here?
Speaker 4 (19:07):
So, yeah, this is a This is a piece by
Jessica Hall about an economist named Alicia Mannell who has
made a career around, you know, retirement economics.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
And by the way, she's eighty two and still working Manila's.
So she's following her own advice.
Speaker 4 (19:21):
She is following advice, and based on her research, in
good economic times, forty percent of retirees cannot maintain their
standard of living in retirement, while in bad economic times
that figure rises to fifty percent. So take that for
what you will, but it kind of lines up with
a lot of statistics that we know about that you know,
half of Americans aren't really saving for retirement, that there's
(19:43):
a huge portion of Americans that don't have any money invested.
I think it's about half of Americans have no money
invested in the stock market, for example, And so I
don't think I find it immensely surprising. The advice really stinks.
I mean, don't retire your best retirement advice. But I
have a different, I guess twist on it that I
(20:05):
would say is useful.
Speaker 3 (20:06):
Go ahead, No, no, you go, because you might have
the same twist I do.
Speaker 4 (20:09):
So where I see mistakes from folks is retiring because
they feel like they're at that point where they should
are supposed to retire, And that is just a dumb idea.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
You should retire because there are specific.
Speaker 4 (20:25):
Things that you want to accomplish now that work is over.
Not because hey, my employer said I can't work past
sixty five, or my uncle, my cousin, my nephew, my
you know this, that or the other. My father retired
at sixty six, sixty seven, seventy years old, and so
that's when I'm going to retire, because that's when it's done.
Those are bad reasons to retire. Good reasons to retire is, Hey,
(20:47):
I've worked my rear end off. I have a bunch
of things that I am healthy enough to accomplish and
will have time to do so, So I am making
a plan and I'm going to retire.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
Now, that was what I was going to say. Was
your twist?
Speaker 2 (20:59):
So you said it was forty percent of people have
to change their standard of living in retirement.
Speaker 3 (21:04):
Yes, is what she said. Can't maintain that standard of living,
so likely have to change it.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
My question is on the other side, Hey, what's the
percentage that could have retired earlier but didn't because they
were too nervous to fault that they were going to
fall into that forty percent? And I don't know, Like,
is it ten is it twenty percent of the retirees
that fall into that bucket?
Speaker 3 (21:23):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
But how many people are out there who are saying, look,
I do want to retire because I'm tired. I want
to spend time with the grandkids, or I want to
go travel the world, or I want to go build
a sailboat and live alone on it. Like whatever whatever
your thing is, that's fine, Like it doesn't have to
be what anyone else wants.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
You to do.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
But how many people put it off an extra year,
two years, three years, four years, And it's because they're
too nervous about retiring. And then I've seen it a
number ten and then something happens and they get sick
or whatever.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
That's where I was gonna go to, which is a
bit sad.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
And then they miss out on something that they really
want that they could have had.
Speaker 4 (22:01):
Because ask people who are on their deathbed what their
largest regrets are in life.
Speaker 3 (22:09):
It's almost never about not saving enough for retirement.
Speaker 4 (22:12):
It's always about, you know, I had this opportunity, I
didn't take it. I should have done that, you know,
I should have spent more time with family. I wish
I had taken this opportunity or been just a little
bit more confident in my decision making process when I
was younger. It's never ah, man, you know, when I
was eighty two, I had a worse lifestyle in thought
because I didn't put enough my four one k are
(22:33):
you kidding me? So I'm not telling everybody that you
can afford to retire that that is definitely far from
the truth. I am telling people that I frequently see
folks who work in a job that they hate longer
than they have to because they're worried about falling into
this forty percent sure, and they're worried about it with
(22:55):
zero evidence that they will. Yeah, And so if you're
listening right now, my point would be, I don't know
which bucket you fall into. I don't know if you
can afford to retire or not. But if you don't
know either, then spend some time figuring it out, because,
like I said, when when when I speak with folks
about their regrets in life, it's almost never about man,
(23:20):
I wish I had worked a few extra years there.
It's always about, oh, I wish I had spent my
younger years better. If you have questions like that, if
you don't know which bucket you fall into and whether
or not you can afford to retire, please call the
folks at Armstrong Advisory Group. We do this for our
clients every day. We assess whether or not they can
continue to maintain their lifestyle after they are cutting off
(23:42):
their one way of pulling in an income for their
entire lives. Call us at arms Armstrong Advisory Group at
eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one. We
offer free one on one consultations about this very subject.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Again.
Speaker 4 (23:57):
That phone number four the Armstrong Advisory Group is eight
hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (24:03):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
your own financial, tax and estate planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
Mike, was it last week that we were covering the
piece on financial scams versus financial fraud?
Speaker 3 (24:25):
Yes? Maybe it was. Whenever it was, I got a
new one yesterday. I meant to talk tempted fraud or scam.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
Yes, I meant to talk about it during yesterday's show
because I got a text message during one of the
segments and it said that I had a parcel that
was stopped at the Canadian border because there was an
inaccurate ZIP code, and that I had to reply to
this and then I would be sent a link in
order to get my information to Canadian customs so that
(24:53):
my package could get to me.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
Important.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
Now, I don't know very much about how things work
at the Canadian US border, but here's one thing I
do know. The first is if something's coming into the
United States, it's not going through Canadian customs, it's going
through US customs. So I picked up on that right away.
(25:18):
Behind that, you hadn't ordered any fur hats recently. Beyond that,
so my zip code was wrong on this parcel coming
from Canada, but my phone number was correct correct, and
the Mounties just text.
Speaker 3 (25:31):
You, yeah, that's there again. Way of reaching out.
Speaker 2 (25:35):
The big thing that I say on all this, because look,
some of this stuff can't get kind of scary and
kind of spooky. If you get anyone who is texting you,
calling you saying you need to send money or fill
out this link right now, hang up, put down the phone,
don't text back. Find a contact number on a piece
of paper that you have in your house for whatever
(25:56):
the thing is, or talk to a friend who can
get you the contact number from the internet.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
If you're not like an Internet person.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
Like, find a way to get an actual contact number
and use that to actually figure out if something is
going on or not. Do not, under any circumstances start
giving information to someone who says you need to move
money right now, or give them information right away. I
do this, by the way, even with legitimate things. Someone
(26:23):
who I work with sent me an email yesterday with
an attachment in it. Before I opened it, called them up, Hey,
did you send me an attachment? Yep, I did, great,
I'm going to open this now.
Speaker 3 (26:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
Granted, I'm a little paranoid on this stuff, but an
ounce of paranoia prevents like a whole bunch of money
being stolen.
Speaker 4 (26:40):
I think that's my key message is adopt those practices
of paranoia now, because what any cybersecurity expert will tell
you is with the pace of development on artificial intelligence,
it's about to become orders of magnitude more difficult to detect.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Let's take a quick break on that note, and when
we come back, we're going to be joined by paul
A Monica from Barons.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
Right after this, breaking business and financial news first throughout
the day. Only here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Find daily interviews and full shows of the Financial Exchange
on how are YouTube page, get cut up on anything
and everything you might have missed. This is the Financial
Exchange Radio Network, Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
Speaker 5 (27:30):
The Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled
American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. With the holiday season approaching,
now is a great time to say thank you to
our great American heroes by making a donation at DAV
five k dot Boston. Your gifts will sports services such
as the Veteran Advancement Program, which offers permanent and affordable
housing opportunities for veterans and their dependence. Thank you again
(27:54):
for your support. The DAV five K Boston is presented
by Veterans Development Corporation ROMs.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
We're now joined by Paul Amonica from Barons. We're talking
about a small little telecom company by the name of
Verizon today.
Speaker 3 (28:09):
Paul, how you doing good? Thanks? How are you guys doing?
We're doing well. What's gott Verison in the news? In
your eyes?
Speaker 6 (28:16):
Yeah? I think Verizon is just an interesting, you know
stock to look ahead to in twenty twenty five. It
hasn't done poorly per se, up about like thirteen percent
this year, but that lags the broader market by a
decent amount, and it really is significantly smaller gain than
(28:37):
what we've seen for AT and T and Tea Mobile.
So I think it just goes to show that, you know,
the market might be underestimating Verizon's ability to you know,
continue to grow in a consolidating wireless market and also
pay a dividend that is a lot more attractive than
(28:58):
what AT and T even hasn't clearly even more attractive
than bond yields which have been falling lately.
Speaker 3 (29:04):
What is the dividend on Verizon these days?
Speaker 6 (29:07):
At last check, it was about six point seven percent,
So that's a very very strong dividend that would make
it probably the leader and the so called dogs of
the day, the highest yielding dowstocks.
Speaker 3 (29:20):
When you look at it.
Speaker 2 (29:22):
The part that is just kind of, I guess, confusing,
but also interesting to me on one level is look,
if you sit here and look at the long term
chart of Verizon, the stock is at the same place
it was at nineteen ninety eight right now. Obviously you've
collected the dividends over that time.
Speaker 3 (29:40):
You know, arguably this has.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
Been a time where there's been a lot of excitement
about expansion in telecoms, whether you know, moving people into
cell phones first, then to data plans, then you know,
five G and things like that. If Verizon stock has
been so stagnant over this twenty five year period, for
someone you know who looks at Verizon as longer term hold,
(30:01):
what are some thoughts as to how the next twenty
five years could be different given all the excitement and
theory about telecom for the last couple decades.
Speaker 6 (30:09):
Yeah, I mean that's a great question. I mean, make
a mistake. I mean, the telecom business is by no
means the Magnificent seven. You're not going to get Nvidia
type levels of growth from Verizon or AT and tier
Team Mobile. But I think the good news is that
Verizon has stable and steady growth, which should help it
(30:31):
if the economy inevitably slows down. You know, we're talking
about the soft landing for twenty twenty five, but cycles
don't go on forever. There's eventually going to be another recession.
And I think, you know, Verizon investors can really appreciate
that strong yield. And again, this is now pretty much
(30:53):
an oligopoly, even if you're throwing cable companies like Comcasts
into the mix. Verizon as a very very strong market
share position in the converged telecom world. And that even
includes the old fiber of the home you know business
as well, you know, kind of traditional landlines aren't going away.
(31:15):
Entirely in Verizons making a deal to by Frontier Communications,
you know, which a deal that could close in early
twenty twenty six that could boost growth as well.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Paul, Did anything ever come out of Verizon's acquisitions of
Aol and Yahoo when they combined them into OATH, I
think was the name of it.
Speaker 3 (31:34):
Is that still around? Is that doing anything at this point?
Speaker 6 (31:38):
I mean not for Verizon. I mean that is in
the same way that AT and T I think made
a bit of miscalculation with owning both content and the
distribution side, to the chagrin of all my former colleagues
at CNN when we were in the media was part
of AT and T. I think Verizon definitely realized that
(32:03):
Oath was, you know, probably a bit of a miscalculation.
So they don't have that, you know, Aol Yahoo business anymore.
That's you know, private equity owned at this point, I'm
trying to remember who it was, if it was Apollo
that you know bought it or you know, but they're
out of that. Yeah, they sold that in twenty twenty
(32:24):
one to Apollo Global Management, So that's not Horizon Media
is no longer a part of the story, is which
I think investors are happy about.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
Sure, is is there anything exciting that they're cooking up
as is six G on the horizon, Like what what's
next from them?
Speaker 6 (32:39):
Yeah? Yeah, I mean inevitably, I mean we we all
know that in the same way that you know, anyone
who's been around long enough to remember when it was
three G and then it became four G and five G. Inevitably,
there will be faster you know networks. But you know
that's a double edged sword. Once we get to that point,
you're going to have to have Verizon as well as
(33:01):
AT and T and T Mobile spend aggressively on network buildouts.
I think right now we're still hopefully at the stage
for investors where most of the five G investments have
already been made and deployed, and now it's a matter
of reaping the benefits of them, you know, potentially with
(33:22):
you know, lower churn. Customers are hopefully happy with the
services they have and you know, adding more subscriptions, you know,
to the monthly pie. You know, you know, that's something
that I think Verizon as well as AT and T
and T Mobile investors are counting on for the next
few years. I mean, six G inevitably will happen, but
I think you know we're not there yet.
Speaker 3 (33:44):
How many g's is enough? Paul?
Speaker 5 (33:46):
Oh?
Speaker 6 (33:48):
I mean I hope to live long enough that we
wind up in the double digit g's. I'm not so sure.
I count on that I fell alive when ten G
whatever that.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
Is, who was it?
Speaker 2 (34:01):
One of the one of the telecoms came out with
a t G that they had to like retract because
of marketing purposes.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
I think I forget who it was, but.
Speaker 6 (34:09):
Yeah, blankings, I don't want to identify anyone and accused
them of a false advertising, but I do vaguely remember
that there was a a false claim of sort of
you know, ludicrous speeds to quote space palls.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
Fantastic, Paul. We appreciate you joining us. Have a great
weekend and we'll catch up soon.
Speaker 6 (34:32):
Thanks a lot. I have a go on, guys.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
It's Paul Amonica from Baron's talking about very zultan elso
known as Verizon.
Speaker 3 (34:40):
It appears that it was Exfinity by the way, Sure
why not? Yeah? Yeah, it's fine. What else you got?
Speaker 1 (34:47):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (34:48):
I would like to go to Weimo because I am
a new Waimo convert and if they could just figure
out how to drive in snowy, icy, rainy one way
Street Boston.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
I'd be all over them eighty six. Yeah, WEIMO.
Speaker 4 (35:02):
The self driving car unit of Alphabet is expanding to Miami,
which seems like another area that so long it's not
in the middle of a hurricane, would be pretty easy
for them to navigate. So seeing some success both in
San Francisco and Phoenix, I believe are the only two
areas they currently operate, and adding a third one in
the United States by twenty twenty six are their plans.
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Yeah, this is exciting to me in terms of what
they're they're doing here. Again, it's a slow and deliberate rollout,
but it also again you think about all the data
that they have and all of the rides they're actually undertaking.
I think they're now up to doing about a million
rides a month. The idea that Tesla's going to come
in and suddenly have every car able to do this nationwide,
(35:48):
it's laughable.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
It just doesn't pass the sniff test.
Speaker 1 (35:52):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (35:53):
One other thing that I'm just confused by all of
the vehicles are Jaguars. Just don't really understand that one.
Speaker 3 (36:00):
Strange partnership it is, you know, you'd figure.
Speaker 4 (36:03):
Something a little bit cheaper would make more sense there.
But nonetheless, they're all Jaguars, Right, how about a Honda
Ford or right with Akia, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
There's plenty to choose from, like, take your pick, but
h makes you wonder what percentage of Jaguars sales are
going just to.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
A lot of them.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
Let's take a quick break here for the entire weekend.
Hope you all have a great one. We're gonna see
you back here on Monday, kicking off new week on
Financial Exchange
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