The Country 20/02/25: Peter Newbold talks to Jamie Mackay

How much is your farm worth? Are farmers sitting on them, banking the returns, rather than selling them? We take our monthly look at the state of the rural market with the GM of PGG Wrightson Real Estate. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Monthly here on the country, we tell you what your
farm's worth. Is it going to be worth more than
it was a month ago? Let's ask our expert, the
GM of PGG Rights in real Estate, Peter Newbot and Peter,
you make an interesting comment here. You're saying you're sensing
a number of potential dairy listings are on hold as
those farmers bank the current returns. Interesting.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Yeah, and look, it's the feedback we're getting. And I think,
you know, when you look at it, why wouldn't they
And so definitely that's taking place. There's demand out there
for them, but you know, there's probably not at the
moment enough enough listenings to fulfill that. I think the
interesting thing is then suddenly you look out a year

(00:42):
and in some cases you could argue they've missed that
opportunity because suddenly then there's a whole lot of listenings
and those buyers that are in play at the moment
may have moved on. So, yeah, it's an interesting space.
But definitely that's the feedback I'm getting.

Speaker 1 (00:57):
Of Course, the fifty basis point drop in the OC
everyone was picking that one. Surely, as interest rates drop,
property prices will increase. Or is that false logic?

Speaker 2 (01:08):
These days, I don't think they'll increase as much as
people may think, because on the other side, you've got
a look at cost of living, you know, you think
of fuel, food, rates, insurances, all those things, they're not
coming back. So I think any rate decreases now are
probably just going to offset those costs. I think, yes,

(01:30):
there'll be some movement, but I think it'll be gradual.
And that's what we're saying.

Speaker 1 (01:34):
Don't start me on rates and insurance. It's criminal, right.
So we've touched on dairy, sheep and beef. Now. I
think the good news story of this farming season has
been the renaissance in a way of sheep farming. I know, well,
still a troubled child, but you know, like lamb is okay,
okay to good this year.

Speaker 3 (01:54):
Yeah, and look that's the feedback.

Speaker 2 (01:55):
I've been out in the field a bit recently and
definitely you know, shet and bee farmers, their spirits are
a lot better and I think, you know, you get
this season out of the way, they're banked a bit.
I see a strong future when you look out over
the next twelve to any months, and we're seeing now
a little bit more activity in that space, and if

(02:19):
you look at the projections by everyone, why will that change?
So I think we're going to see more movement in
sheet and beef. The interesting thing there is probably we're
seeing at the moment a number of those smaller as
I call them blocks coming onto the market, which is
an interesting and then there's some more larger sales taking place.
So yeah, interesting space. And I think if you look

(02:41):
at some of those I don't let's call them traditional
sheet and beef regions like Otago for example, I think
we'll see a lot more activity over the next six months.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
And I ask you this question every month, but it's
worth repeating. A good question is worth repeating. How many
of these sheep and beef farms are going to forestry
at the moment?

Speaker 2 (03:03):
Yeah, you do ask that a lot interesting, Yes, there
are some, and I know just over the last few
days a couple of reasonable sized properties have transacted. But
I think definitely it is slowan but there are still
some and there's a change I guess in some of
the regulations that are taking place in December.

Speaker 3 (03:25):
I think it is so that will.

Speaker 2 (03:27):
Probably you'll probably see a little bit of a I
guess a surge now, but I think it will slowly.
It will slowly I guess diminish over time. That's my feeling.

Speaker 1 (03:36):
All right, let's have a look at quickly at horticulture.
Really good returns at the moment for key we fruit,
apples are promising as well, although there's always issues. It's
a tough way to make a living being a horticulturalist.
Are we getting back to the healthy in days or
those heady days of what was it up to two
million dollars for canopy heck there at one stage for
kiw fruit.

Speaker 2 (03:57):
Yeah. No, Look, we haven't got back there yet, and
I'm supp we haven't seen more I guess momentum over
the last month. But they tell me out there we're
just starting to see signs. And if you look at
listings and that there's a little bit more activity. The
only area that's probably pretty clear slow at the moments viticulture.
I guess we know the reasons why they're but the others,
I think we'll see momentum. That's what I'm being told,

(04:20):
And if I look at what's happening in the marketplace,
that would confirm that.

Speaker 1 (04:25):
Okay, Traditionally, really quickly to finish on Autumn is the
time when most farms are sort of bought and sold.
Does that still the case?

Speaker 3 (04:32):
Yeah, look at it. And you know, I was just
looking the other day.

Speaker 2 (04:37):
When you look at what is coming to the market
in March and April, that would confirm that. And I
think if you look at everything else we've talked about earlier,
I think we might see some good activity in that
April May time, which is good for everybody.

Speaker 1 (04:52):
Peter, and you bolt always good to catch up here
on the country.

Speaker 3 (04:56):
Yeah, thanks Jomian, and you have a good afternoon.