February 20, 2025 • 7 mins
The "Dangen Zone" panel discusses the dry conditions in the upper North Island, Fonterra's low emissions payment incentives, and the latest farmer confidence survey.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Gerger family time now on the country. It's the Dungeon Panel. Yes,
brother and sister, both former Young Farmers of the Year.
Tim dangein twenty twenty two. Emma Paul twenty twenty three.
I want to start with weather and track conditions because
(00:25):
you're both in the Upper North Island. Emma, let's start
with you in the Dairy Powerhouse province, also known as
the way Kato.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Yeah, Jamie, good afternoon and good to be here.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
It's pretty dry underfoot.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
There's a few slightly greener areas in the wy Kiddo
had looked over yesterday on some of those peak farms,
you're holding on a bit better. But over here in
Prong here we are certainly very dry and we're pretty
much full time feeding animals all day.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Tim, you're a beef farmer West Auckland, Mirrawui there. How
are you feeling faring? Should I say, I'm sure you're
feeling okay? How are you faring?
Speaker 3 (01:01):
I'm feeling great, mate, don't even worry about that. But yeah,
we're very dry up here now. Luckily though, we had
a fantastic spring and we're actually really going through December
and early January, so there's been plenty of supp supplement made.
I think farmers are in pretty good steads start feeding
a fair bit of that out now, but it's certainly
browned off and we're probably about as burned as the
(01:22):
dinner that I cooked for my wife last night. I'd say, Okay.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Fonterra's come out with a few announcements today. It's that
the earnings guidance for the dividends going to be in
the upper half, so that's good news. And they've revised
the milk forecast collections upper wee bit to fifteen hundred
and ten million kilograms of milk solids, which you wonder
whether that will last as the season dries out. But
(01:45):
the other announcement earlier in the week, Emma Paul was
the fact that if you were a low if you
had a lower missions profile, you could you could get
a week cash bonus. Are you going to get one
on your phone?
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Yeah? It's interesting, isn't it, Jamien. It's a little bit
tom Tek around that announce There's really two parts. In
the first part I quite like in the second part
I've got a few grievances with But the first part
is that you know they are Mars and Nesle fronted
up with a genuine premium, which is awesome because farmers
have been asking for that for a long time, and
that genuine premium is going to go towards around five
(02:19):
thousand farmers they think, which is around half of the
co op. Isn't it in a one to five cents manner,
which is relatively low, but it's still not nothing, and
some of the we'll hang on.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
It's less than half a percent on a ten dollar payout,
so it's next to nothing, and I'm not belittling it.
It's small beginnings, but I think the more meaning take you, yok,
you'll take it. The more meaningful one is the ten
to twenty five cents of kilogram premium, but only three
percent of Fonterra farmers are going to get it. Are
you going to get that one?
Speaker 2 (02:48):
No, we're unlikely to get that one, Jamien Nett's because
we are high input fun and we have a lot
of bought and feed onto our farm, which comes with
an emissions cost, doesn't it. So this systems probably going
to suit that have a high amount of home ground feed.
So some areas of the country have a few levers
that they can pull when it gets dry that we
can't here in the way ket it. I can't just
(03:08):
run out and turn my irrigator on and start growing feed.
I'm going to have to buy some feed.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
In the gates.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
So that's where this modeling it's really tricky, Jamien. It's
going to be quite segregating for our farmers. But I'm
picking a lot of those farms that receiving that premium
are going to come from the Canterbury region where they
can go grass when no one else can. And you know,
good on those farmers and great news for them, But
it's sort of ironic that, you know, Canterbury in the
past five to ten YEARSS has received a lot of
(03:36):
pressure around how those farms have been managed in terms
of the environment. So it's interesting for us to be
going forward labeling them as our most you know, environmentally
sustainable farms, when if you look at the history, or
if urban people got hold of their information and they
compare what they've seen in the media in the past,
how's that going to stack up for us?
Speaker 1 (03:55):
What about the carbon footprint of using the electricity or
the energy to put the water on the pastures in Canterbury.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Well, you'd think that the carbon footprint. We've got a
lot of renewable energy sources in New Zealand, so I'd
say that that sort of cancels itself out. But you've
certainly got to be concerned about some off irrigation is
done inappropriately and some of those nutrients are leached into
the waterways, which Canterbury has done a fantastic job of
getting on top of those issues, and but I still
think there's work to be done there.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
Janie, Well, our energy is renewable, yes, but we're burning
coal from Indonesia. Genesis and Co are talking about burning
more and more coal as we run out. We can't
guarantee our renewable energy. So I don't know about that one.
What do you make of it, Tim, You're a learned man.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
I think ultimately it is actually a good news story, Johnie.
I think that Fonterra have managed to go out and
find these customers that are willing to pay this premium
because they think that they can obviously pass it on
to the consumers at the other end. So we always
talk about being able to sell our story and show
the data and behind our production, and so they've been
able to monetize it. So I think it is good.
(05:01):
I just hope that it doesn't segregate farmers too much
and depending on you know, some of their land uses
and things like that, it could be a little bit
divisive and MS fine around yeah, Canibury, but I'd argue
that there's parts of Taranaki and Southam that can grow
just as good a grass as Canibar without the mission's
profile of running the irrigators.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
So let's go back to Mars and Nesle Emma Paul.
Is this a bit of green washing from them or
is the studio?
Speaker 2 (05:29):
I think it's genuine Jamie and I was lucky enough
to talk to some of the Mars constituent when they
came over to New Zealand eighteen months ago and they
actually set us down as a group of farmers and
said what do you need to be more sustainable and
pretty much everyone answered saying, we need more money to
do what you're asking. So they've fronted up with more
money and a lot of that money, well half of
that money is going to go towards on farm solutions,
(05:50):
which it sounds like eighty seven percent of Fontier farmers
are going to be able to access. So that's things
like Yoni's testing, so you could imagine that, you know,
if we could reduce Yonis on farms in the impact
that has for our animal health, which is just amazing.
But I'd like to see Fontierra do more of a
concentrated effort. I've been on here about removing BBD from
New Zealand before, Jamie. I think that would be a
(06:12):
really good place for Fontier to put some of these funds,
is to concentrate on removing a singular disease, because I
think BBD is about a production impact with around one
hundred and fifty million dollars in New Zealand, so that
there could be a good sector in doubling your export outther.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
You couldn't it spoken like a true vet, Tim. The
farmer confidence survey out this week from Federated Farmers, no
surprise there. If they're not the farmers aren't happy this year,
they'll never be happy.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
Yeah, exactly, Jamien. It'll be really interesting to see this
survey later on mid year because I think the conference
levels will only go up, up and up from here.
But it's really positive to see that things are starting
to turn around. Obviously, high commodity prices and falling into
straight to front of mine. But I just thought it
was interesting to see that regulation and policy is still
the biggest concerned for farmers. You know, although we've got
(07:01):
a government that's largely aligned with the sector and they're
out there slashing big time, it still sits front of mind.
And I think that's largely because we're worried about a
changing government that when it well come, which will eventually,
are we just going to see a big pendulum swing again.
And so I think it's really important that our industry
good bodies represent us really well with opposition parties and
(07:23):
that we stay engage with them so that yeah, we're
well across all the topics of the day, and that
we make sure they're well informed on what we are
doing on farm and the things that we're working towards. Well.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Good luck dealing with to party Mari and the Greens
on that one, guys. Anyhow, that's just a week comment
from me. You can't say that you'd get in trouble
some Dan jin Emma Paul, thanks for being a panelist
today and clarifying some of that information, especially you em
around those lower emissions premiums for farmers. Interesting chat.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
Have you good day? Jannie Amen,
Gerger family time now on the country. It's the Dungeon Panel. Yes,
brother and sister, both former Young Farmers of the Year.
Tim dangein twenty twenty two. Emma Paul twenty twenty three.
I want to start with weather and track conditions because
(00:25):
you're both in the Upper North Island. Emma, let's start
with you in the Dairy Powerhouse province, also known as
the way Kato.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Yeah, Jamie, good afternoon and good to be here.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
It's pretty dry underfoot.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
There's a few slightly greener areas in the wy Kiddo
had looked over yesterday on some of those peak farms,
you're holding on a bit better. But over here in
Prong here we are certainly very dry and we're pretty
much full time feeding animals all day.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Tim, you're a beef farmer West Auckland, Mirrawui there. How
are you feeling faring? Should I say, I'm sure you're
feeling okay? How are you faring?
Speaker 3 (01:01):
I'm feeling great, mate, don't even worry about that. But yeah,
we're very dry up here now. Luckily though, we had
a fantastic spring and we're actually really going through December
and early January, so there's been plenty of supp supplement made.
I think farmers are in pretty good steads start feeding
a fair bit of that out now, but it's certainly
browned off and we're probably about as burned as the
(01:22):
dinner that I cooked for my wife last night. I'd say, Okay.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Fonterra's come out with a few announcements today. It's that
the earnings guidance for the dividends going to be in
the upper half, so that's good news. And they've revised
the milk forecast collections upper wee bit to fifteen hundred
and ten million kilograms of milk solids, which you wonder
whether that will last as the season dries out. But
(01:45):
the other announcement earlier in the week, Emma Paul was
the fact that if you were a low if you
had a lower missions profile, you could you could get
a week cash bonus. Are you going to get one
on your phone?
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Yeah? It's interesting, isn't it, Jamien. It's a little bit
tom Tek around that announce There's really two parts. In
the first part I quite like in the second part
I've got a few grievances with But the first part
is that you know they are Mars and Nesle fronted
up with a genuine premium, which is awesome because farmers
have been asking for that for a long time, and
that genuine premium is going to go towards around five
(02:19):
thousand farmers they think, which is around half of the
co op. Isn't it in a one to five cents manner,
which is relatively low, but it's still not nothing, and
some of the we'll hang on.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
It's less than half a percent on a ten dollar payout,
so it's next to nothing, and I'm not belittling it.
It's small beginnings, but I think the more meaning take you, yok,
you'll take it. The more meaningful one is the ten
to twenty five cents of kilogram premium, but only three
percent of Fonterra farmers are going to get it. Are
you going to get that one?
Speaker 2 (02:48):
No, we're unlikely to get that one, Jamien Nett's because
we are high input fun and we have a lot
of bought and feed onto our farm, which comes with
an emissions cost, doesn't it. So this systems probably going
to suit that have a high amount of home ground feed.
So some areas of the country have a few levers
that they can pull when it gets dry that we
can't here in the way ket it. I can't just
(03:08):
run out and turn my irrigator on and start growing feed.
I'm going to have to buy some feed.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
In the gates.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
So that's where this modeling it's really tricky, Jamien. It's
going to be quite segregating for our farmers. But I'm
picking a lot of those farms that receiving that premium
are going to come from the Canterbury region where they
can go grass when no one else can. And you know,
good on those farmers and great news for them, But
it's sort of ironic that, you know, Canterbury in the
past five to ten YEARSS has received a lot of
(03:36):
pressure around how those farms have been managed in terms
of the environment. So it's interesting for us to be
going forward labeling them as our most you know, environmentally
sustainable farms, when if you look at the history, or
if urban people got hold of their information and they
compare what they've seen in the media in the past,
how's that going to stack up for us?
Speaker 1 (03:55):
What about the carbon footprint of using the electricity or
the energy to put the water on the pastures in Canterbury.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Well, you'd think that the carbon footprint. We've got a
lot of renewable energy sources in New Zealand, so I'd
say that that sort of cancels itself out. But you've
certainly got to be concerned about some off irrigation is
done inappropriately and some of those nutrients are leached into
the waterways, which Canterbury has done a fantastic job of
getting on top of those issues, and but I still
think there's work to be done there.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
Janie, Well, our energy is renewable, yes, but we're burning
coal from Indonesia. Genesis and Co are talking about burning
more and more coal as we run out. We can't
guarantee our renewable energy. So I don't know about that one.
What do you make of it, Tim, You're a learned man.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
I think ultimately it is actually a good news story, Johnie.
I think that Fonterra have managed to go out and
find these customers that are willing to pay this premium
because they think that they can obviously pass it on
to the consumers at the other end. So we always
talk about being able to sell our story and show
the data and behind our production, and so they've been
able to monetize it. So I think it is good.
(05:01):
I just hope that it doesn't segregate farmers too much
and depending on you know, some of their land uses
and things like that, it could be a little bit
divisive and MS fine around yeah, Canibury, but I'd argue
that there's parts of Taranaki and Southam that can grow
just as good a grass as Canibar without the mission's
profile of running the irrigators.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
So let's go back to Mars and Nesle Emma Paul.
Is this a bit of green washing from them or
is the studio?
Speaker 2 (05:29):
I think it's genuine Jamie and I was lucky enough
to talk to some of the Mars constituent when they
came over to New Zealand eighteen months ago and they
actually set us down as a group of farmers and
said what do you need to be more sustainable and
pretty much everyone answered saying, we need more money to
do what you're asking. So they've fronted up with more
money and a lot of that money, well half of
that money is going to go towards on farm solutions,
(05:50):
which it sounds like eighty seven percent of Fontier farmers
are going to be able to access. So that's things
like Yoni's testing, so you could imagine that, you know,
if we could reduce Yonis on farms in the impact
that has for our animal health, which is just amazing.
But I'd like to see Fontierra do more of a
concentrated effort. I've been on here about removing BBD from
New Zealand before, Jamie. I think that would be a
(06:12):
really good place for Fontier to put some of these funds,
is to concentrate on removing a singular disease, because I
think BBD is about a production impact with around one
hundred and fifty million dollars in New Zealand, so that
there could be a good sector in doubling your export outther.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
You couldn't it spoken like a true vet, Tim. The
farmer confidence survey out this week from Federated Farmers, no
surprise there. If they're not the farmers aren't happy this year,
they'll never be happy.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
Yeah, exactly, Jamien. It'll be really interesting to see this
survey later on mid year because I think the conference
levels will only go up, up and up from here.
But it's really positive to see that things are starting
to turn around. Obviously, high commodity prices and falling into
straight to front of mine. But I just thought it
was interesting to see that regulation and policy is still
the biggest concerned for farmers. You know, although we've got
(07:01):
a government that's largely aligned with the sector and they're
out there slashing big time, it still sits front of mind.
And I think that's largely because we're worried about a
changing government that when it well come, which will eventually,
are we just going to see a big pendulum swing again.
And so I think it's really important that our industry
good bodies represent us really well with opposition parties and
(07:23):
that we stay engage with them so that yeah, we're
well across all the topics of the day, and that
we make sure they're well informed on what we are
doing on farm and the things that we're working towards. Well.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Good luck dealing with to party Mari and the Greens
on that one, guys. Anyhow, that's just a week comment
from me. You can't say that you'd get in trouble
some Dan jin Emma Paul, thanks for being a panelist
today and clarifying some of that information, especially you em
around those lower emissions premiums for farmers. Interesting chat.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
Have you good day? Jannie Amen,
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