The Country 07/03/25: Chris Brandolino talks to Jamie Mackay

NIWA's weather guy on the big dry and whether there's any respite in the long-range forecast.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Okay, let's wrap the country with air Man at Newa
Chris Brandelena. We've covered the carnage that's about to happen
in Australia where they're going to get far too much
wind and rain. We need some rain, Crisp, Brandolina, Brandolino
in this country. I know that NIWA came out with
your long range forecast on Monday. What do you got
for us?

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Yeah, Look, I think unfortunately for areas that could use
the rain. So we're talking in the western part of
the North Island and even the western part of the
South Island. Those are areas where dryness is a risk.
So we're saying normal or below normal rainfall somewhere between
those two kind of endpoints rainfall for the season the
three month period on the other side of the divide

(00:42):
for both islands, because we'll have more winds than usual
coming from the east to southeast or east to northeast,
we're expecting rainfall to be normal or above normal. Again,
anywhere in those two end points will fall in that spectrum.
So that's that's the three month outlook, though, Jamie, the
shorter kind of medium term forecast is for just relentlessly

(01:05):
dry weather. Unfortunately woefully dry over the next week. Between
now and say next day when we talk again, there'll
be many areas in the North Island, Wycotail especially maybe
parts of the Bay of Plenty, parts of Tetanaki. If
you're lucky, you might get three or four millimeters of
rain over the next seven days. That's if you're lucky.

(01:25):
Some places may get barely enough to tip the bucket.
So it is going to be a really dry over
the next couple of weeks. I think mid to late March,
called the second half of March. We'll have to watch
for some opportunities of rain. I think the west of
the South Island is best in line to see some
meaningful rain by say the third week of March or thereabouts,

(01:50):
and that could be a good news for them because
the hydro catchments are getting quite low and that affects
electricity and obviously any farming going on on the west
coast of the South Isle, which there is a many,
but there are some dairy farms. And for the North Island, though, Jamie,
uh boy, we may have to wait till late in
the month or early April to find any significant rainfall.
But as you know, it's not just one rainfall event.

(02:12):
When it's this dry, you need multiple rainfall events. Just like. Look, man,
if you're a million dollars in the hole, if you
win a ten thousand dollars scratchyet, that's great, But you
need a couple more of those, you know.

Speaker 1 (02:22):
Okay, Well, I wish you could be the bearer of news.
I'm glad. I mean, you'll be glad that we don't
shoot the messenger on the show, Chris, So you would
have gone weeks ago?

Speaker 2 (02:30):
Oh look, man, that would be yeah for sure. You
know people are waving at me, Jamie, but it's only
with one finger. I don't know what that is. Usually
when people wave, it should be five fingers.

Speaker 1 (02:38):
Oh, the life of a wave of a man. It's
a twenty seven, twenty four to seven job. Chris Brandolino
there from Neywa