March 9, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Phil Duncan, Andrew Hoggard, Grant McCallum, Dave Whillans, Pita Alexander, and Jen Corkran.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay Thanks to Brent, you're specialist in
John Deer construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
I was five years old looking through the wind of pain.
There was dead growing in the fields. Every year was
the same. There was burn up corn, living in a
dusty Hayes and haaded Sir.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Good night, Hello, pray.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
Get a New Zealand. Welcome to the Country. I'm Jamie
mckayth The show is brought to you by Brent. This
is a guy called Cody Johnson who I've never heard of.
Michelle threw him in there. Apparently he was the warm
up act for Luke Combs when he came to God's
Own last year. The song is called pro for Rain
and that's that. We're going to kick off the show
today with our guy from weather Watch, Phil Duncan. Don't
(01:02):
shoot the messenger, but it could be worse. You could
be in Queensland at the moment. Today's Farmer Politician panel
is Andrew Hoggard and Grant McCallum. We're going to chat
to one guy or one area in the country that
doesn't want rain at the moment, and that's Canterbury. They're
trying to get all the crops in and the seeds
in and all the harvesting. It hasn't been a great
(01:23):
season for them. Peter Alexander christ Church farmer counted Jen
Corkran is going to wander in here. I think a
wee bit later in the hour out of Rabobank. Only
good news, only good news for beef farmers if you
exclude Donald Trump. Phil Duncan. The song is called Pray
for Rain. Are farmer's prayer is going to be answered?
Speaker 5 (01:46):
Probably not?
Speaker 6 (01:47):
Probably not in the short term. I'm afraid to say.
Speaker 7 (01:51):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
Well, as I said, I suppose it could be worse.
It's devastating what's happening in Queensland or northern New South Wales,
Southeast Queensland. It's escalated almost, hasn't it.
Speaker 6 (02:04):
Yeah, The rain is still absolutely pouring with rain across
a large portion of southeast Cleanland and also the northern
part of northeastern part of New South Wales. Still absolutely
pouring with rain, some signs and it's breaking up today though,
so hopefully they'll get some better news. The rainfall numbers
tapering off and back to a normal where the forecast
and where they're set up by this evening. But part
(02:26):
of the reason it's pouring with rain so much there
after Cyclone Alfred made landfall is due to the big,
powerful high pressure system over New Zealand at the moment,
which is keeping many places dry. Certainly in the North
Island the conditions getting very dry, and we're seeing that
dry expanding as this stubborn high pressure sticks around with us.
But we do have a few Southerlys in the rain.
(02:48):
That's what you're feeling off and on around the South
Island in particular, these brief, subtly changes coming through every
few days. Now.
Speaker 4 (02:54):
I note that the dry which was initially the north
and west of the North Island, for instance, crept into
Hawks Bays, crept into the wire Rapid region, and I
guess this is all relative. But the west coast of
the South Island is dry, but that's relative to their
normal higher rainfall. And then you get a band around
the southeast corner of the South Island also getting very dry.
Speaker 6 (03:19):
Yeah, certainly interesting at the moment these areas that are
drying out, and you know, you wouldn't normally be seeing
Westland getting so dry at this time of the year.
Normally in March, we're starting to get plenty of cold
fronts that are brushing the South Island, and we are
getting these cold fronts, but they're very weak and they're
just bringing very small, spotty amounts of where the Stuart
(03:40):
Island is considerably dryer than it should be at the moment,
along with the whole western side of the North Island,
which suggests that there's been a real lack of rain
coming from south of New Zealand or even from the
Tasman And with all these big high pressure systems still
coming through from Australia, no big change here. We've seen
widespread rout across Australia at the moment as well.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
Yeah, apart from on the East coast. So fell in
terms of farmers because four warned is forearmed and you're
better off to know the truth and deal to it
early than hang on and hope. But like Cody Johnson's
song where he's praying for rain, so your advice to
farmers would be to take action now because there's not
going to be change in the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 6 (04:21):
Yeah, I mean to be honest with you. The weather
mat that I'm looking at for ten days from now
around the twentieth of March looks almost exactly the same
as the weather map we've got today, and I mean
that from covering New Zealand and Australia. And there's just
huge high pressure systems coming through from Tasmania at the moment.
When will they break up? Don't really know yet. This
(04:43):
could be going until April. We suggest about a month.
Speaker 5 (04:46):
Or so ago.
Speaker 6 (04:47):
So if it's dry now, it may well be drier
as we keep on going through this month. Still optimistic
to bring you some silver lining though. We're not going
to end on a dark down note. But we've got
to be honest about it. It is very dry. It's not
looking to change much in the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 4 (05:01):
Phil Duncan, thank you for your time. As always. You're
lucky we don't shoot the messenger on this show. You
would have been gone weeks ago.
Speaker 6 (05:07):
It is religious twenty twenty five and eighteen twenty.
Speaker 4 (05:11):
Yeah, CFL. There we go, Phil Duncan from wea the Watch.
I don't know about you, guys. I'm awey, bit tired,
tired today, stayed up in the hope that the black
Caps might get the job done. Went to bed when
we lost Tome Latham, Oh never mind, did well to
get to the final I guess now other news out
this morning, and this is a good news story from Fonterra,
(05:33):
who just keep pumping out good news stories. So they've
increased their full year or financial yeah sorry, full year
earnings guidance from forty to sixty cents to fifty five
to seventy five cents. So this is the earnings guide
and of course they pay the dividend from that. So
the co OPS dividend policy is sixty to eighty percent
(05:56):
of those numbers, so it's going to be in a
pretty broad band. Really, it's going to be sixty to
eighty percent of fifty five to seventy five cents. I
hope that makes clear half of that will be paid
as an interim dividend. We'll have Miles Hurrel on the show.
I think next Thursday. Is that right about the twentieth
of March when Fonterra announces its financial year twenty five
(06:19):
interim results and they look like they're going to be
pretty good. That is the good news story right up
next Today's Farmer Politician Panel will lighten things up, are we?
But Grant mcnational McCullum out of Northland. He's dry and
I'm a meteorology weatherwise he's dry. Should I say? And
Andrew Hoggard, who is the Minister of Biosecurity of course?
(06:42):
Other news out this weekend we had a foot and
mouth outbreak in Hungry so gee, we've got to guard
our borders jealously. Up next to the farmer politician panel
here on the Country as we go Country now Daddy.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
In terms, she ain't the same the Black Times, taken
over storeroom and grow the grain and now go where
cause no matter where I go but up the streams.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
And Texas can. Today's panel is a farmer panel and
a political panel because they're both dairy farming MPs. Grant McCullum,
National MP for Northland. Andrew Hoggard, of course, former President
of Federated Farmers these days, the Minister of Biosecurity and
Associate Agriculture. He's got a much better CV, Grant McCallum,
(07:48):
than you have. When are you going to get a
minister's name behind your pandle.
Speaker 5 (07:53):
Come on this show, have nice really chat this minute
he's firing up at me about well, you're not doing
your job well up. All I can do is do
my job as best I can, and the boss promotes me,
that's up to him. A moment, I'm enjoying being the
MP for Northland.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
And good on Grant and you did an excellent job
on the power pylons getting the money out of the
electricity company.
Speaker 5 (08:15):
Thank you, Jamie. I appreciate that.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
Yeah, well, I think I think it could be your
crown and glory and the politics and I'm going to
I'm going to come back to the dry in Northland. Andrew,
I might start Andrew Hoggard, I might start with you
in the manner or two when you're not in Wellington.
How dry are you on the dairy farm?
Speaker 7 (08:35):
Yeah, it's pretty dry. So grass grow has been pretty
light last week while and still green. We got a
little bit of rain the other day the other night
and but that's sort of enough to keep it green.
Probably need a lot more really get that autumn gross.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Going though, So no thoughts of an early dryoff.
Speaker 7 (08:57):
No, I went to milk as well, so okay, yep, yeah,
but I will be drawing some of the sprink hoils
off pretty shortly.
Speaker 4 (09:04):
Actually, good news coming out of Fonterra. More good news
should I say, coming out of Fonterra today, Grant McCallum,
your dividend's going to be good.
Speaker 5 (09:12):
Yeah, it's great news. Isn't really good news only the
dairy farmers, the hard working dairy farmer in this country,
but also for the economy as a whole, because I'm
sure Nickole Willis will be delighted to see that announcement,
and that's at tax is going to get so she
can help pay for some of those health services and
so forth that we're doing. Yeah. But in terms of
the dry up north Jamie, Yeah, it's be fair to
(09:33):
say that the area around Real Wide Dargable through the
Wi Fi classes particularly dry at the moment, but the
rest of us are starting to dry out a reasonable amount.
Hence why they I see that we would be clear
as part of a we were a drought, medium event
event drought and so people got any issues, get ahold
of Real Sports Trust and I'm sure they'll have the
(09:54):
able to help out. But yeah, but you know, the
payout certainly helps pay for a bit of feed, that's
for sure.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
You had a great field days I hear at Dargaville.
Speaker 5 (10:03):
Yeah, it went really well and she's really good turnout.
They got just over twenty thousand people there apparently over
the three days a year and really good mood. They'd
sold out all the exhibits, everything was and over subscribed,
actually sold you more sites. So really good news of
things definitely turning for the better. And it was good
to hear. And the curve Regress of particularly is a
(10:24):
good season and they're shaving up for a good one.
Speaker 4 (10:26):
Well good on them. They deserve it. They've been through
a bit of a battle, haven't they. Andrew Hoggard at
Central District's Field Days this week.
Speaker 7 (10:33):
Yeah, and looking forward to it. We just said the
Rural Games down here this weekend, so yeah, big a
couple of weeks from the men or two And it
was really great to see that turnout at the Rural Games.
Lots of people with their kids coming along to look
at sharing sports and all the other things that are
quintessentially rural in New Zealand. It's brilliant weekend.
Speaker 4 (10:52):
Did you get on the end of the handpiece or
a coal shovel while.
Speaker 7 (10:55):
You were there the col shoveling myself Mark Patterson and
told mcclee we became the coalition to use it.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
That's not bad.
Speaker 5 (11:07):
Inns of the provinces to.
Speaker 7 (11:08):
Be delighted with that, say yeah, yeah, so you know
I no, that was good fun. Actually yeah, I got
the exction game thought nicely. Yeah, I'd stay as a
minister in charge of animal welfare. It's a pretty bad
idea for me getting anywhere near hand piece.
Speaker 4 (11:22):
So yeah, you cowcockies can be a bit dangerous on
a hand piece. I agree with that. Grant. When are
we expecting the announcement of the new national leader?
Speaker 5 (11:32):
You told me you were going to talk about this, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
Sorry, there will be known.
Speaker 5 (11:36):
Out of your union. Our leaders doing a great job,
Thank you very much. And to all those journalists out
there or so called journalists inter viewing their keyboards, they
need to go and think about another job themselves, because
we've got a prime in this is doing a really
good job. Have we tuned the economy around whereas you
can see with the place coming down and in just
rates and that sort of thing. Honestly, what a whole
(11:57):
lot of rubbish.
Speaker 4 (11:58):
Okay, Well, Andrew Hagan, I won't ask you about the
leadership of the ACT Party because it's a bit like
New Zealand. First, it's a dictatorship. It's never going to change.
Speaker 7 (12:07):
Oh no, no, no, David's his goal is to make
sure the party out last time. And no he's you know,
we've got a good party with good people in there.
So no, it's a very congenial work environment.
Speaker 4 (12:21):
Do you think the New Zealand First Party Grant McCullum
or will outlast Winston?
Speaker 5 (12:27):
Possibly? Although I do know Winston remarks me one day
that he said, did you know Greg that there was
a senator in America that left to one hundred? So
these newsflast people is ever a while yet? Yeah?
Speaker 7 (12:39):
Okay, And the question is well, all the rest of
us out last Winston?
Speaker 4 (12:44):
Probably not? Andrew, we're putting on your Minister for Biosecurity hat.
It looks like a junket for you down to scott
based in Antarctica. You're doing new field tests down there
to speed up avian influenza monitoring, and I good on you.
Mp I has done a really good job. Or we've
done a good job with av and flu and obviously
(13:06):
with both of us.
Speaker 7 (13:08):
Yeah, well, I think it's really key, you know, to
get prepared fabian flu. It's you know, it's not something
we can keep out it's going to be a case
of when, not if. But the most important thing is
that monitoring that's occurring so people know when they can
get prepared. You can't spend all your time if con
five or IF on one, or whichever the highest one is.
(13:31):
We need to be knowing how that's progressing around Antarctica,
when it might move up into the sub pactics, so
people can start taking appropriate steps and make sure that
they heighten their level of biosecurity on their farms. You know,
it's affected the rest of the world, farmers over there
learning how they live with it. We've had study tours
(13:53):
over the UK and Australia to help our property producers
get better understanding there. So it's just part of the
program of making sure we're as prepared as we possibly can.
Speaker 4 (14:04):
Yeah, and Grant, it's all a practice session really for
the biggie should it come here. And I see this
foot and mouth not only in Germany now but in
Hungary as well. It just reinforces the idea we've just
got to keep a strong guard on our borders.
Speaker 5 (14:19):
We absolutely do, and I commend the work that Andrew's
team are doing. We just can't take our eye off
the board here at all ever, and people at the
border who complain about procedures around at the borders covering
things into New Zealand on the plane or stuff coming
to and containers. Sorry, we cannot take those risks will
(14:39):
destroy our economy.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
Okay, I know you two have got to go to
a really interesting Select Committee meeting. Thank you very much
for your time. Andrew Hogard Grant McCallum Today's Farmer Politician Panel.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
Thanks thanks guys.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
It is twenty five after twelve. You're with the Country
brought to you by Brent. We've going country today with
Cody Johnson. Never heard of him, Michelle. We'll see the
warm up act for Luke Combs.
Speaker 8 (15:06):
He was last year and he actually won Album of
the Year at CMA's last year as well.
Speaker 4 (15:12):
Right, who was his musical inspiration Bob Dylan or Leonard
Cohen or someone like that. But maybe I just need
to sample some more of them.
Speaker 8 (15:20):
It's a little bit gentle. Yes, I think this is
from This is from the album that he won an
award for last year. I think this song but it's
probably the most upbeat one. But his inspiration is Willie
Nelson and George Strait one of your favorites.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
No, No, George Strait's not one of my favorites Anyhow,
this song prey for Ray and I thought that was
app for Phil Duncan. Actually just breaking news, breaking news
on the Herald website. Labor has overtaken national in the
latest Taxpayers Union Caurier Pole, with Chris Hipkins also pipping
Christopher Luxon in the preferred PM Steaks. Gee. Interesting, Labor
(15:58):
thirty four point one percent thirty three point six percent
slight lead for labor there preferred PM Hipkins twenty point seven,
Luxon twenty point three. Neither of those numbers are stellar,
but Gee, trouble at mill for the coalition government. They
need the economy to turn around. There are a lot
(16:20):
of disgruntled people out there. Up next, we're going to
talk to a disgruntled or sort of disgruntled mid Canterbury
arable farmer. His name is Dave Willans, and that's because
they just can't catch a break with the weather in Canterbury.
Believe it or not, they wanted to stop raining while
the rest of the country wants rain. Dave Willans up next,
we'll also talk to Peter Alexander and Jen corkran before
(16:43):
the end of the hour on the country.
Speaker 5 (16:49):
Just like me, I'll not.
Speaker 4 (16:54):
Make these you do so hard do.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
Perfe well.
Speaker 4 (17:02):
Most of the country's farmers are praying for rain. That's
not the case in Canterbury for the arable and cropping farmers.
To tell us a wee bit more about it, we've
got one on the end of the blower. His name
is Dave Williams. Used to work in agri business for Westpac.
These days he is a mixed cropping farmer, three hundred
and thirty hectares, most of it irrigated in mid Canterbury. Dave,
(17:24):
it's been a bugger of a season.
Speaker 5 (17:26):
It has.
Speaker 9 (17:26):
It's a great way to sum it up, particularly tough
further inland and in the upper planes. It's just been
constant drizzle for nine to ten weeks since the middle December.
Made it very hard for harvesting, very hard to get
crops finished. All the small seeds they've been knocked around
with it. So it's been tough. And it's hard to
say this when it's so dry in other parts of
(17:47):
the country, but Canterbury's traditionally dry and loves the heat
and we just haven't had it this year.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
Yeah, I've missed out on those traditional Northwesters to bring
those crops and minds you the livestock farmers, the pastoral farmers,
dairy farmers, they must be laughing all the way to
the bank.
Speaker 5 (18:03):
They are loving it.
Speaker 9 (18:04):
They're having a great season. That's great to see. We
need them to be doing well and it's good to
see that real strong lifting returns to them as well.
So it's been a long time between drinks.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
Mid Canterbury is some of the best cropping land, if
not the best cropping land in the country. It's sort
of the seed bowl for the country. You do a
lot of specialist seeds in Mid Canterbury and of course
you do need Mother Nature to come to the party
to ripen the crops. And it just hasn't happened.
Speaker 9 (18:31):
No, you're right, Look, it hasn't hasn't been here. It's
been really tough and the impact that it's had has
been phenomenal. So last year we grew seedpeas, we did
just under three and a half tonder the heatare for those.
This year we're down under a Tom've got some friends
over at Mevin who have got some spinachin. They had
seventeen hectares of it. The whole thing written off, just
no harvestable seed and it clovy. Yields have been knocked
(18:53):
around milling wheat, certainly around this area in the Upper Plains,
a lot of people are struggling to achieve tons and
at the current prices are not even getting the cost
of production back, so some reasonable losses are likely out
of this year.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
I thought you would do all right in the season
like this selling the likes of feed wheak to dairy farmers.
Speaker 5 (19:16):
Look not yet.
Speaker 9 (19:17):
We expect that the feed prices might start to move
a bit later in the season, but at the moment
all the big volumes come off, it's holding down at
some of the last year's prices. Also, a lot of
people are bringing in feed PK DDG and that helps
keep a lid on feed. Look, we'd like to see
that change, but that is what it is, and people
(19:38):
are using those mixes across the country and they do
keep prices relatively static.
Speaker 4 (19:44):
Perhaps the biggest issue post COVID for farming has been
on farm inflation, that cost of production, and we all
know if you're a cropping farmer you're getting hit harder
than probably pastoral farmers because you have so many things
you have to pay for, machinery, fuel, you name it, sprays,
all that sort of stuff. And you guys have been
(20:05):
hit really hard there.
Speaker 9 (20:07):
And you can't get away from it. You've got to
keep on spending to grow next year's crops. So right
now people have done to drill a lot of the
seed for next year's crops and starting that spend already,
and you just need to keep on spending. Banking colonomists
are talking about inflation being much softer and lower than
what it is, but we're still wearing it. And I
see this week in the paper it's britten, just accounts
(20:28):
of talking about a rate rises and hoping to hold it.
Speaker 5 (20:31):
At ten percent.
Speaker 9 (20:32):
We just can't keep on operating an environment where we
have these these great, big lumpy increases and costs and
in no change on the income site.
Speaker 4 (20:41):
Do you miss the corporate life, the banking life, the
regular paycheck, because I reckon, horticulture is a tough way
to make a living, and cropping's a tough way to
make a living as well, or arable farming, because one
event throws your whole can potentially throw your whole income
stream out the window.
Speaker 9 (20:58):
Yeah, did right. You're not at all use of mister
corporate life. But I love farming, love agriculture and having
a great time doing it, so and it's just a
it's a real eye out and it's easy to talk
about farming and all the reps and consultants and everyone
that drives in the drive is a plenty of chairs
and they can talk to talk, but actually doing it
as another completely different skill set and you're just so
(21:20):
exposed and a lot of it you're dealing with on
your own. So my advice for a lot of farmers
who are struggling with this year impacts, know your numbers,
get into the detail on your gross margins, on your crops,
work through those with your professional team, and push back
on the sea companies. If you think you're going to
break even or might not make any money and there's
a bit of risks there, don't grow it or push
(21:44):
back on the sea company and try and get a
lift and price. You've really got to spend plenty of
time on the economics of what you're growing and make
sure that you're getting a return and that the risk
because the risk is real and it keeps on getting
diinged up every year with all these weather events. You've
really got to make sure you're making some money out
of it, and particularly just even the cost of gear's
(22:05):
going by the new tractor these days, or a new harvester.
New harvesters well up over a million bucks and there's
not too many of those being told of that kind
of price. But we can't do what we do without
having good quality infrastructure for sewing seeds, for harvesting it,
for drying it and working through the system. So you
get into your numbers everyone and make sure that you
(22:25):
are making some money out of those crops that we're growing.
Speaker 4 (22:27):
Spoken like a true banker. Dave Willems, mixed cropping farmer
from mid Canterbury. Thanks for the advice on the country today.
Speaker 9 (22:34):
No worries, Thanks Jamie, Thank you, Dave.
Speaker 4 (22:38):
Music's very subjective, isn't it. This is Cody Johnson, apparently
a hot country artist. Someone says on the text line
five double O nine, if you want to send us
a message, Cody Johnson, great country singer. Another one says,
good a Jamie. All these baked bean music singers sound
the same. I'm afraid you can't beat a bit of
classic rock says Matt, in relation to the latest Taxpayer's
(23:04):
Union curier pole, which has Labor in front and the
center left in front. Someone's texted in and said, do
those morons in that poll not remember who put us
in this mess?
Speaker 7 (23:18):
Hi?
Speaker 4 (23:18):
Jamie Labor again, what short memories we've got us? Madness
is infectious, says Jen, and Jeff says we had twenty
five Millson and Cargo over the weekend that I'm sure
it would be welcomed there just on the latest political
poll for what it's worth, probably not much because we're
a long way out from an election. Labor, as I said,
just pipping National in the low thirties thirty four plays
(23:41):
thirty three. Here's the interesting numbers. Act seven point seven
New Zealand first, New Zealand first five point one, just
above the threshold to Party Maori well six point five percent. Gee,
I look forward to the day Labor, the Greens and
to Party maor former government. It'll be last one to
(24:03):
leave the country or quit farming, turn the lights off.
I hate to sound so drastic and dramatic about it,
but it would be a disaster for farming. Up next
Rural News and sports News, they might have a look
at some of those results at the Rural Sports over
the weekend in Palmi North as well.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
Harland jeepsu.
Speaker 4 (24:24):
I guess taken. So welcome back to the country. It's
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Speaker 8 (26:00):
Timer took the win at the East Coast Young Farmer
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Women's Day. She is a world champion tree climber.
Speaker 4 (26:36):
Yeah, I know a wee bit about Stephoff commentated the
tree climbing. It's Arbora's up in the trees. They swing
like monkeys from branch to branch. They are unbelievably athletic.
Great athlete Steph drive out congratulations.
Speaker 1 (26:52):
Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at AFCO dot co dot.
Speaker 4 (26:56):
Nz and just talking about the rural games and the
sports awards were how over the weekend in Palmi North
the speed sharing of particular interest TOA Henderson, who took
out the Golden Shares the week before, pipped Jack Fagan
who was probably the favorite for the speed Shares. So
Toer Henderson first place, Jack Fagan second and in third
(27:17):
place Brett Roberts from Matara who's on a good run
of form. Also Brett was the first time finalist in
the Golden Shares recently at Marsterton as well. And this
is my favorite sports news story for the weekend, the
fifteen hundred meters Sam Ruth versus Sam Tanner. There's no
slowing down for the fifteen year old running prodigy Sam
(27:37):
Ruth after his dead heat with Sam Tanner over fifteen
hundred meters at the Track and Field Nationals here in
Dunedin over the weekend. Craig Kirkwood, who coaches them both,
says Ruth will bid to become the youngest person to
run a sub four minute mile next week at Mount Smart.
He will be the first fifteen year old to do so.
(28:00):
Should he do it, what an athlete? That young lad
is up next? Peter Alexander, thank you. He is a
christ Church farm accountant. His name is Peter Alexander. Peter.
I always tell this story and people accuse me of
repeating myself, even some of my close friends. But a
(28:21):
good story is worth repeating. When I was a kid
growing up in the sixties and Riversdale and Southland on
the farm, my uncle, my late uncle and my late
father used to ring each other up at lunchtime because
they kind of farmed in partnership, and the start of
the conversation would always be the same, no doubt about it.
The country's bugget. Do you think anything's changed in the
(28:42):
last sixty years.
Speaker 5 (28:45):
Ah, that's a good analogy, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (28:47):
I think it's been up and down. It's been up
and down right now. It's messy. When you read The Economist,
which I do every week, very good articles in it.
They are struggling to find much joy in the next
(29:07):
three or four years.
Speaker 4 (29:09):
Okay, well the next that coincides with the rest of
the Trump term. And he's been a very disruptive president
so far. He probably has done some good things as well.
But from a trading point of view, we are a
trading nation. No matter which way you slice and dice
it up. He's not good for us, No.
Speaker 5 (29:27):
He's not.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
I mean we have a a He has a deficit
with us trading wise, it's not a big deficit, about
three billion. He actually has the other wave of Australia.
So Australia is not facing any tariffs, at least on
his present way of looking at it, whereas we might
have a tariff. Had to know how much. Could be
(29:50):
three hundred million, could be six hundred million, depending on where.
Speaker 4 (29:53):
But Peter, at this stage, I mean, this is all hypothetical,
but we don't know whether we would impose a reciprocal
tarriff back on the States if they put one on us,
so it could be a one way street.
Speaker 3 (30:05):
Yes, I'm just working on the net balance. At the moment,
we export about fourteen point six billion to America and
they explore to US about eleven point four billion, So
there's a even balance of about three point two billion,
which is pretty small potatoes on his side. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (30:23):
Well, I think we're also a valuable ally, And as
I've been fond of saying, I think we may be
able to coattail off Australia if they can do with
a deal with do a deal with them, because they
have a very close relationship with the US. Of course,
Trump not only affects trade. What he's doing will affect
inflation in the US, which ultimately in effects inflation and
(30:46):
interest rates around the world.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
Yes, I believe that our interest rates will drop a
bit further, but the way I mean inflation is written
all over what Trump is wanting do, and that will
have any effect of increasing in interest rates. So we
could see interest rates drop here further and then in
twelve months time start to rise again. It's not an
(31:09):
unrealistic expectation.
Speaker 4 (31:11):
Yeah, and now that's what a lot of economists are saying.
So should you go and unlock in a good fixed rate,
a longer term fixed rate right now?
Speaker 3 (31:20):
That's a good question At the moment. I've got to
be keptul while I write, otherwise people will assume me.
But personally I think a fixed rate maybe four point
five four point seven five for five years would be
well worth looking at. It mightn't, it may go lower,
but don't hope for the fixing at the lowest rate.
(31:42):
Facts at a rate that's very workable for you for
five years.
Speaker 4 (31:45):
That's the old sleep at night test. If you can
make it work at those levels, grab it in use
and then you can rest easily for five years.
Speaker 5 (31:53):
Now.
Speaker 4 (31:53):
News out last week from Beef and Lamb New Zealand
on their mid season update. An interesting number for me
was the average farm profit for sheep and beef farmers
at one hundred and six thousand, five hundred. It doubled
from last year. But from that, Peter, and you're the accountant.
You've got to pay your drawings, your tax, capital expenditure,
principal repayments. It's not that much. In fact, there's bigg're
(32:18):
all spare fat in the system.
Speaker 3 (32:20):
No, you're quite right. There's five two hundred viable sheep
and beef farmers in this country. There's a lot more
than that, But that survival number that's referred to, I
think probably half of them in the previous year made losses.
At the moment that one hundred and six thousand, a
big number will balance their cash flow, but to really
(32:41):
make any progress at all, they need a profit another
fifty thousand dollars higher than that. The average personal drawings.
They're all over the place that the average personal drawings
when you allow for life insurance, all sorts of other things,
is up near ninety thousand. Now for a lot of
sheep and beef operations there's almost variation. But even of
(33:02):
one hundred and six thousand, the sheep and beef sector
will be paying very little in the way of income tax.
Speaker 4 (33:08):
Well, absolutely, if you're spending ninety on drawings and you've
got one hundred and six profit, that doesn't allow anything
much for tax capital expend that you're not going to
spend much there in principal repayments. How many of your
sheep and beef farming clients are on, for instance, interest only, there.
Speaker 3 (33:27):
Would still be quite a number. The banks, as you know,
have been pushing back for a table mortgage structure. That
most of our banks, which we remember eighty five percent
of our makeshare Australia, asking for two percent of things
are going well. If things aren't going well, they wouldn't
they don't push for it, but by Chwist. They want
to see about two percent a year coming back and
(33:49):
loan principle.
Speaker 4 (33:50):
Peter Alexander, christ Church Farm Accountant, thank you as always
for your time on the country. Really appreciate it. You
have a great week in christ Church.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
Thanks Jams, Thank you, Peter.
Speaker 4 (34:01):
Ate away from one. Are we going to wrap it?
I see Jen Corkran's outside my studio window. We'll chat
to her from Rabobank to wrap the country next. So
special guest in the studio today, Jen Corkran. She is
the RABO Research Senior AG Analyst and she's just authored
(34:22):
the Q one Global Beef Quarterly Report. Good to see
you in duned and Jen, I know you were in
Wanica over the weekend for that magnificent Wanica show, but
you're based at HQ in Hamilton with Rabobank, where it's
getting very very dry, the dairy farms of the way
Gado in particular.
Speaker 10 (34:40):
Yes, Hi Dannie, It's it's lovely to be here in
Dunedin today, a beautiful sunny day after a lovely weekend
in Warnica as well. It is certainly getting dry in
the Wakido and it's kind of I'm been getting now
is starting to become a bit more past tense because
it's been dry for quite a few weeks now, so
different dynamic. But saying that, you know, there's been summers
(35:02):
that have been dry in the Waketo, and I think
with the last couple of kind ones in terms of rainfall,
we're having to remember what that looks like.
Speaker 4 (35:10):
Yeah, and I know that some farmers are not only
in the Whitekato king Country, Taranaki's very dry. They're drying off.
But I guess if you have to dry off earlier,
it lessens the blow awee bit with a ten dollar payout.
Now you're in here not to talk about dairy prices
and the good news are coming out of Fonterra at
the moment. You're in here to talk about the good
news around global beef prices. I just read the summary
(35:34):
the media release around the Q one beef quarterly report.
There is no bad news in.
Speaker 10 (35:39):
Here, Jen, not really, Jamie. It's good news. And this
is our global report from the Animal Protein team, so
it kind of looks at the full sort of year ahead,
but focusing for this one on quarter one of course,
And yeah, it's all very good news, very similar messages
to last year in terms of that production piece. But
overall global beef production is going to be down in
(36:01):
twenty twenty five compared to twenty twenty four. And again
it's that sort of northern hemisphere versus southern hemisphere.
Speaker 4 (36:07):
Why aren't more countries ramping up their beef production with
these record prices?
Speaker 10 (36:11):
Yes, Jamie, that's a good question, And it's the chicken
and egg scenario, isn't it. Because we're seeing pricing so
strong out of the US at the moment because of
the fact that they just don't have much domestic supply
in the beginning that heard rebuild, which essentially is going
to take you know, three or four years possibly, So
we do expect, you know, the demand for this lean
trimmings beef to continue right through that time, which is
(36:33):
pretty well reported. So good news for the pricing here,
and certainly we're expecting that strong amount.
Speaker 4 (36:39):
All right, let's address the elephant in the room, the
orange elephant in the room. Some people would say that
Trump Trump on his tariffs.
Speaker 10 (36:46):
Yes, so Trump, and every day we wake up, don't
we all and look at the news and see what's
going on. But I guess New Zealand's got a few
cards that we can play here. We do have something
that they need, so we've talked widely about this, right,
So beef is something we know they're going to be
needing for the next three or four years, and especially
that manufacturing lend trimmings beef. So that is a good
(37:08):
thing for us. However, tariffs are likely to be coming
in some way, shape or form. We think what that
looks like, we don't know yet, but good that we
have something that they need is a negotiating point. And
also you know we're not in the top ten of
the hit list, and we perhaps can play a role
in some of that geopolitical conversation with China and how
(37:35):
we can be perhaps helpful to the US and that's.
Speaker 4 (37:38):
Something yeah, and we may be able to coaktail off
Australia if they can do a sweetheart dear with Trump,
Jen corkorand thank you very much for paying us a
visit here at Dunedin HQ. Safe travels back to Rabobank
HQ and the Triumph. Thanks Jami, great, Thanks Jen right
just wrapping the show today. Congratulations Daniel Kenner from Caddy
Caddy in the Bay of Plan You are off to
(38:01):
the Haught New Zealand and your conference. What a great prize.
This is two days of insights, networking and industry innovation.
You've got the two day conference, the gala dinner. We've
thrown in the flights and accommodation. Will be in contact
with you after one o'clock to firm up those details.
Well done. Daniel Kenner from Caddy Caddy leave.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Catch you're the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie mcguae. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Deere machinery,
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay Thanks to Brent, you're specialist in
John Deer construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
I was five years old looking through the wind of pain.
There was dead growing in the fields. Every year was
the same. There was burn up corn, living in a
dusty Hayes and haaded Sir.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Good night, Hello, pray.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
Get a New Zealand. Welcome to the Country. I'm Jamie
mckayth The show is brought to you by Brent. This
is a guy called Cody Johnson who I've never heard of.
Michelle threw him in there. Apparently he was the warm
up act for Luke Combs when he came to God's
Own last year. The song is called pro for Rain
and that's that. We're going to kick off the show
today with our guy from weather Watch, Phil Duncan. Don't
(01:02):
shoot the messenger, but it could be worse. You could
be in Queensland at the moment. Today's Farmer Politician panel
is Andrew Hoggard and Grant McCallum. We're going to chat
to one guy or one area in the country that
doesn't want rain at the moment, and that's Canterbury. They're
trying to get all the crops in and the seeds
in and all the harvesting. It hasn't been a great
(01:23):
season for them. Peter Alexander christ Church farmer counted Jen
Corkran is going to wander in here. I think a
wee bit later in the hour out of Rabobank. Only
good news, only good news for beef farmers if you
exclude Donald Trump. Phil Duncan. The song is called Pray
for Rain. Are farmer's prayer is going to be answered?
Speaker 5 (01:46):
Probably not?
Speaker 6 (01:47):
Probably not in the short term. I'm afraid to say.
Speaker 7 (01:51):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
Well, as I said, I suppose it could be worse.
It's devastating what's happening in Queensland or northern New South Wales,
Southeast Queensland. It's escalated almost, hasn't it.
Speaker 6 (02:04):
Yeah, The rain is still absolutely pouring with rain across
a large portion of southeast Cleanland and also the northern
part of northeastern part of New South Wales. Still absolutely
pouring with rain, some signs and it's breaking up today though,
so hopefully they'll get some better news. The rainfall numbers
tapering off and back to a normal where the forecast
and where they're set up by this evening. But part
(02:26):
of the reason it's pouring with rain so much there
after Cyclone Alfred made landfall is due to the big,
powerful high pressure system over New Zealand at the moment,
which is keeping many places dry. Certainly in the North
Island the conditions getting very dry, and we're seeing that
dry expanding as this stubborn high pressure sticks around with us.
But we do have a few Southerlys in the rain.
(02:48):
That's what you're feeling off and on around the South
Island in particular, these brief, subtly changes coming through every
few days. Now.
Speaker 4 (02:54):
I note that the dry which was initially the north
and west of the North Island, for instance, crept into
Hawks Bays, crept into the wire Rapid region, and I
guess this is all relative. But the west coast of
the South Island is dry, but that's relative to their
normal higher rainfall. And then you get a band around
the southeast corner of the South Island also getting very dry.
Speaker 6 (03:19):
Yeah, certainly interesting at the moment these areas that are
drying out, and you know, you wouldn't normally be seeing
Westland getting so dry at this time of the year.
Normally in March, we're starting to get plenty of cold
fronts that are brushing the South Island, and we are
getting these cold fronts, but they're very weak and they're
just bringing very small, spotty amounts of where the Stuart
(03:40):
Island is considerably dryer than it should be at the moment,
along with the whole western side of the North Island,
which suggests that there's been a real lack of rain
coming from south of New Zealand or even from the
Tasman And with all these big high pressure systems still
coming through from Australia, no big change here. We've seen
widespread rout across Australia at the moment as well.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
Yeah, apart from on the East coast. So fell in
terms of farmers because four warned is forearmed and you're
better off to know the truth and deal to it
early than hang on and hope. But like Cody Johnson's
song where he's praying for rain, so your advice to
farmers would be to take action now because there's not
going to be change in the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 6 (04:21):
Yeah, I mean to be honest with you. The weather
mat that I'm looking at for ten days from now
around the twentieth of March looks almost exactly the same
as the weather map we've got today, and I mean
that from covering New Zealand and Australia. And there's just
huge high pressure systems coming through from Tasmania at the moment.
When will they break up? Don't really know yet. This
(04:43):
could be going until April. We suggest about a month.
Speaker 5 (04:46):
Or so ago.
Speaker 6 (04:47):
So if it's dry now, it may well be drier
as we keep on going through this month. Still optimistic
to bring you some silver lining though. We're not going
to end on a dark down note. But we've got
to be honest about it. It is very dry. It's not
looking to change much in the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 4 (05:01):
Phil Duncan, thank you for your time. As always. You're
lucky we don't shoot the messenger on this show. You
would have been gone weeks ago.
Speaker 6 (05:07):
It is religious twenty twenty five and eighteen twenty.
Speaker 4 (05:11):
Yeah, CFL. There we go, Phil Duncan from wea the Watch.
I don't know about you, guys. I'm awey, bit tired,
tired today, stayed up in the hope that the black
Caps might get the job done. Went to bed when
we lost Tome Latham, Oh never mind, did well to
get to the final I guess now other news out
this morning, and this is a good news story from Fonterra,
(05:33):
who just keep pumping out good news stories. So they've
increased their full year or financial yeah sorry, full year
earnings guidance from forty to sixty cents to fifty five
to seventy five cents. So this is the earnings guide
and of course they pay the dividend from that. So
the co OPS dividend policy is sixty to eighty percent
(05:56):
of those numbers, so it's going to be in a
pretty broad band. Really, it's going to be sixty to
eighty percent of fifty five to seventy five cents. I
hope that makes clear half of that will be paid
as an interim dividend. We'll have Miles Hurrel on the show.
I think next Thursday. Is that right about the twentieth
of March when Fonterra announces its financial year twenty five
(06:19):
interim results and they look like they're going to be
pretty good. That is the good news story right up
next Today's Farmer Politician Panel will lighten things up, are we?
But Grant mcnational McCullum out of Northland. He's dry and
I'm a meteorology weatherwise he's dry. Should I say? And
Andrew Hoggard, who is the Minister of Biosecurity of course?
(06:42):
Other news out this weekend we had a foot and
mouth outbreak in Hungry so gee, we've got to guard
our borders jealously. Up next to the farmer politician panel
here on the Country as we go Country now Daddy.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
In terms, she ain't the same the Black Times, taken
over storeroom and grow the grain and now go where
cause no matter where I go but up the streams.
Speaker 4 (07:25):
And Texas can. Today's panel is a farmer panel and
a political panel because they're both dairy farming MPs. Grant McCullum,
National MP for Northland. Andrew Hoggard, of course, former President
of Federated Farmers these days, the Minister of Biosecurity and
Associate Agriculture. He's got a much better CV, Grant McCallum,
(07:48):
than you have. When are you going to get a
minister's name behind your pandle.
Speaker 5 (07:53):
Come on this show, have nice really chat this minute
he's firing up at me about well, you're not doing
your job well up. All I can do is do
my job as best I can, and the boss promotes me,
that's up to him. A moment, I'm enjoying being the
MP for Northland.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
And good on Grant and you did an excellent job
on the power pylons getting the money out of the
electricity company.
Speaker 5 (08:15):
Thank you, Jamie. I appreciate that.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
Yeah, well, I think I think it could be your
crown and glory and the politics and I'm going to
I'm going to come back to the dry in Northland. Andrew,
I might start Andrew Hoggard, I might start with you
in the manner or two when you're not in Wellington.
How dry are you on the dairy farm?
Speaker 7 (08:35):
Yeah, it's pretty dry. So grass grow has been pretty
light last week while and still green. We got a
little bit of rain the other day the other night
and but that's sort of enough to keep it green.
Probably need a lot more really get that autumn gross.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Going though, So no thoughts of an early dryoff.
Speaker 7 (08:57):
No, I went to milk as well, so okay, yep, yeah,
but I will be drawing some of the sprink hoils
off pretty shortly.
Speaker 4 (09:04):
Actually, good news coming out of Fonterra. More good news
should I say, coming out of Fonterra today, Grant McCallum,
your dividend's going to be good.
Speaker 5 (09:12):
Yeah, it's great news. Isn't really good news only the
dairy farmers, the hard working dairy farmer in this country,
but also for the economy as a whole, because I'm
sure Nickole Willis will be delighted to see that announcement,
and that's at tax is going to get so she
can help pay for some of those health services and
so forth that we're doing. Yeah. But in terms of
the dry up north Jamie, Yeah, it's be fair to
(09:33):
say that the area around Real Wide Dargable through the
Wi Fi classes particularly dry at the moment, but the
rest of us are starting to dry out a reasonable amount.
Hence why they I see that we would be clear
as part of a we were a drought, medium event
event drought and so people got any issues, get ahold
of Real Sports Trust and I'm sure they'll have the
(09:54):
able to help out. But yeah, but you know, the
payout certainly helps pay for a bit of feed, that's
for sure.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
You had a great field days I hear at Dargaville.
Speaker 5 (10:03):
Yeah, it went really well and she's really good turnout.
They got just over twenty thousand people there apparently over
the three days a year and really good mood. They'd
sold out all the exhibits, everything was and over subscribed,
actually sold you more sites. So really good news of
things definitely turning for the better. And it was good
to hear. And the curve Regress of particularly is a
(10:24):
good season and they're shaving up for a good one.
Speaker 4 (10:26):
Well good on them. They deserve it. They've been through
a bit of a battle, haven't they. Andrew Hoggard at
Central District's Field Days this week.
Speaker 7 (10:33):
Yeah, and looking forward to it. We just said the
Rural Games down here this weekend, so yeah, big a
couple of weeks from the men or two And it
was really great to see that turnout at the Rural Games.
Lots of people with their kids coming along to look
at sharing sports and all the other things that are
quintessentially rural in New Zealand. It's brilliant weekend.
Speaker 4 (10:52):
Did you get on the end of the handpiece or
a coal shovel while.
Speaker 7 (10:55):
You were there the col shoveling myself Mark Patterson and
told mcclee we became the coalition to use it.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
That's not bad.
Speaker 5 (11:07):
Inns of the provinces to.
Speaker 7 (11:08):
Be delighted with that, say yeah, yeah, so you know
I no, that was good fun. Actually yeah, I got
the exction game thought nicely. Yeah, I'd stay as a
minister in charge of animal welfare. It's a pretty bad
idea for me getting anywhere near hand piece.
Speaker 4 (11:22):
So yeah, you cowcockies can be a bit dangerous on
a hand piece. I agree with that. Grant. When are
we expecting the announcement of the new national leader?
Speaker 5 (11:32):
You told me you were going to talk about this, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
Sorry, there will be known.
Speaker 5 (11:36):
Out of your union. Our leaders doing a great job,
Thank you very much. And to all those journalists out
there or so called journalists inter viewing their keyboards, they
need to go and think about another job themselves, because
we've got a prime in this is doing a really
good job. Have we tuned the economy around whereas you
can see with the place coming down and in just
rates and that sort of thing. Honestly, what a whole
(11:57):
lot of rubbish.
Speaker 4 (11:58):
Okay, Well, Andrew Hagan, I won't ask you about the
leadership of the ACT Party because it's a bit like
New Zealand. First, it's a dictatorship. It's never going to change.
Speaker 7 (12:07):
Oh no, no, no, David's his goal is to make
sure the party out last time. And no he's you know,
we've got a good party with good people in there.
So no, it's a very congenial work environment.
Speaker 4 (12:21):
Do you think the New Zealand First Party Grant McCullum
or will outlast Winston?
Speaker 5 (12:27):
Possibly? Although I do know Winston remarks me one day
that he said, did you know Greg that there was
a senator in America that left to one hundred? So
these newsflast people is ever a while yet? Yeah?
Speaker 7 (12:39):
Okay, And the question is well, all the rest of
us out last Winston?
Speaker 4 (12:44):
Probably not? Andrew, we're putting on your Minister for Biosecurity hat.
It looks like a junket for you down to scott
based in Antarctica. You're doing new field tests down there
to speed up avian influenza monitoring, and I good on you.
Mp I has done a really good job. Or we've
done a good job with av and flu and obviously
(13:06):
with both of us.
Speaker 7 (13:08):
Yeah, well, I think it's really key, you know, to
get prepared fabian flu. It's you know, it's not something
we can keep out it's going to be a case
of when, not if. But the most important thing is
that monitoring that's occurring so people know when they can
get prepared. You can't spend all your time if con
five or IF on one, or whichever the highest one is.
(13:31):
We need to be knowing how that's progressing around Antarctica,
when it might move up into the sub pactics, so
people can start taking appropriate steps and make sure that
they heighten their level of biosecurity on their farms. You know,
it's affected the rest of the world, farmers over there
learning how they live with it. We've had study tours
(13:53):
over the UK and Australia to help our property producers
get better understanding there. So it's just part of the
program of making sure we're as prepared as we possibly can.
Speaker 4 (14:04):
Yeah, and Grant, it's all a practice session really for
the biggie should it come here. And I see this
foot and mouth not only in Germany now but in
Hungary as well. It just reinforces the idea we've just
got to keep a strong guard on our borders.
Speaker 5 (14:19):
We absolutely do, and I commend the work that Andrew's
team are doing. We just can't take our eye off
the board here at all ever, and people at the
border who complain about procedures around at the borders covering
things into New Zealand on the plane or stuff coming
to and containers. Sorry, we cannot take those risks will
(14:39):
destroy our economy.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
Okay, I know you two have got to go to
a really interesting Select Committee meeting. Thank you very much
for your time. Andrew Hogard Grant McCallum Today's Farmer Politician Panel.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
Thanks thanks guys.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
It is twenty five after twelve. You're with the Country
brought to you by Brent. We've going country today with
Cody Johnson. Never heard of him, Michelle. We'll see the
warm up act for Luke Combs.
Speaker 8 (15:06):
He was last year and he actually won Album of
the Year at CMA's last year as well.
Speaker 4 (15:12):
Right, who was his musical inspiration Bob Dylan or Leonard
Cohen or someone like that. But maybe I just need
to sample some more of them.
Speaker 8 (15:20):
It's a little bit gentle. Yes, I think this is
from This is from the album that he won an
award for last year. I think this song but it's
probably the most upbeat one. But his inspiration is Willie
Nelson and George Strait one of your favorites.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
No, No, George Strait's not one of my favorites Anyhow,
this song prey for Ray and I thought that was
app for Phil Duncan. Actually just breaking news, breaking news
on the Herald website. Labor has overtaken national in the
latest Taxpayers Union Caurier Pole, with Chris Hipkins also pipping
Christopher Luxon in the preferred PM Steaks. Gee. Interesting, Labor
(15:58):
thirty four point one percent thirty three point six percent
slight lead for labor there preferred PM Hipkins twenty point seven,
Luxon twenty point three. Neither of those numbers are stellar,
but Gee, trouble at mill for the coalition government. They
need the economy to turn around. There are a lot
(16:20):
of disgruntled people out there. Up next, we're going to
talk to a disgruntled or sort of disgruntled mid Canterbury
arable farmer. His name is Dave Willans, and that's because
they just can't catch a break with the weather in Canterbury.
Believe it or not, they wanted to stop raining while
the rest of the country wants rain. Dave Willans up next,
we'll also talk to Peter Alexander and Jen corkran before
(16:43):
the end of the hour on the country.
Speaker 5 (16:49):
Just like me, I'll not.
Speaker 4 (16:54):
Make these you do so hard do.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
Perfe well.
Speaker 4 (17:02):
Most of the country's farmers are praying for rain. That's
not the case in Canterbury for the arable and cropping farmers.
To tell us a wee bit more about it, we've
got one on the end of the blower. His name
is Dave Williams. Used to work in agri business for Westpac.
These days he is a mixed cropping farmer, three hundred
and thirty hectares, most of it irrigated in mid Canterbury. Dave,
(17:24):
it's been a bugger of a season.
Speaker 5 (17:26):
It has.
Speaker 9 (17:26):
It's a great way to sum it up, particularly tough
further inland and in the upper planes. It's just been
constant drizzle for nine to ten weeks since the middle December.
Made it very hard for harvesting, very hard to get
crops finished. All the small seeds they've been knocked around
with it. So it's been tough. And it's hard to
say this when it's so dry in other parts of
(17:47):
the country, but Canterbury's traditionally dry and loves the heat
and we just haven't had it this year.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
Yeah, I've missed out on those traditional Northwesters to bring
those crops and minds you the livestock farmers, the pastoral farmers,
dairy farmers, they must be laughing all the way to
the bank.
Speaker 5 (18:03):
They are loving it.
Speaker 9 (18:04):
They're having a great season. That's great to see. We
need them to be doing well and it's good to
see that real strong lifting returns to them as well.
So it's been a long time between drinks.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
Mid Canterbury is some of the best cropping land, if
not the best cropping land in the country. It's sort
of the seed bowl for the country. You do a
lot of specialist seeds in Mid Canterbury and of course
you do need Mother Nature to come to the party
to ripen the crops. And it just hasn't happened.
Speaker 9 (18:31):
No, you're right, Look, it hasn't hasn't been here. It's
been really tough and the impact that it's had has
been phenomenal. So last year we grew seedpeas, we did
just under three and a half tonder the heatare for those.
This year we're down under a Tom've got some friends
over at Mevin who have got some spinachin. They had
seventeen hectares of it. The whole thing written off, just
no harvestable seed and it clovy. Yields have been knocked
(18:53):
around milling wheat, certainly around this area in the Upper Plains,
a lot of people are struggling to achieve tons and
at the current prices are not even getting the cost
of production back, so some reasonable losses are likely out
of this year.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
I thought you would do all right in the season
like this selling the likes of feed wheak to dairy farmers.
Speaker 5 (19:16):
Look not yet.
Speaker 9 (19:17):
We expect that the feed prices might start to move
a bit later in the season, but at the moment
all the big volumes come off, it's holding down at
some of the last year's prices. Also, a lot of
people are bringing in feed PK DDG and that helps
keep a lid on feed. Look, we'd like to see
that change, but that is what it is, and people
(19:38):
are using those mixes across the country and they do
keep prices relatively static.
Speaker 4 (19:44):
Perhaps the biggest issue post COVID for farming has been
on farm inflation, that cost of production, and we all
know if you're a cropping farmer you're getting hit harder
than probably pastoral farmers because you have so many things
you have to pay for, machinery, fuel, you name it, sprays,
all that sort of stuff. And you guys have been
(20:05):
hit really hard there.
Speaker 9 (20:07):
And you can't get away from it. You've got to
keep on spending to grow next year's crops. So right
now people have done to drill a lot of the
seed for next year's crops and starting that spend already,
and you just need to keep on spending. Banking colonomists
are talking about inflation being much softer and lower than
what it is, but we're still wearing it. And I
see this week in the paper it's britten, just accounts
(20:28):
of talking about a rate rises and hoping to hold it.
Speaker 5 (20:31):
At ten percent.
Speaker 9 (20:32):
We just can't keep on operating an environment where we
have these these great, big lumpy increases and costs and
in no change on the income site.
Speaker 4 (20:41):
Do you miss the corporate life, the banking life, the
regular paycheck, because I reckon, horticulture is a tough way
to make a living, and cropping's a tough way to
make a living as well, or arable farming, because one
event throws your whole can potentially throw your whole income
stream out the window.
Speaker 9 (20:58):
Yeah, did right. You're not at all use of mister
corporate life. But I love farming, love agriculture and having
a great time doing it, so and it's just a
it's a real eye out and it's easy to talk
about farming and all the reps and consultants and everyone
that drives in the drive is a plenty of chairs
and they can talk to talk, but actually doing it
as another completely different skill set and you're just so
(21:20):
exposed and a lot of it you're dealing with on
your own. So my advice for a lot of farmers
who are struggling with this year impacts, know your numbers,
get into the detail on your gross margins, on your crops,
work through those with your professional team, and push back
on the sea companies. If you think you're going to
break even or might not make any money and there's
a bit of risks there, don't grow it or push
(21:44):
back on the sea company and try and get a
lift and price. You've really got to spend plenty of
time on the economics of what you're growing and make
sure that you're getting a return and that the risk
because the risk is real and it keeps on getting
diinged up every year with all these weather events. You've
really got to make sure you're making some money out
of it, and particularly just even the cost of gear's
(22:05):
going by the new tractor these days, or a new harvester.
New harvesters well up over a million bucks and there's
not too many of those being told of that kind
of price. But we can't do what we do without
having good quality infrastructure for sewing seeds, for harvesting it,
for drying it and working through the system. So you
get into your numbers everyone and make sure that you
(22:25):
are making some money out of those crops that we're growing.
Speaker 4 (22:27):
Spoken like a true banker. Dave Willems, mixed cropping farmer
from mid Canterbury. Thanks for the advice on the country today.
Speaker 9 (22:34):
No worries, Thanks Jamie, Thank you, Dave.
Speaker 4 (22:38):
Music's very subjective, isn't it. This is Cody Johnson, apparently
a hot country artist. Someone says on the text line
five double O nine, if you want to send us
a message, Cody Johnson, great country singer. Another one says,
good a Jamie. All these baked bean music singers sound
the same. I'm afraid you can't beat a bit of
classic rock says Matt, in relation to the latest Taxpayer's
(23:04):
Union curier pole, which has Labor in front and the
center left in front. Someone's texted in and said, do
those morons in that poll not remember who put us
in this mess?
Speaker 7 (23:18):
Hi?
Speaker 4 (23:18):
Jamie Labor again, what short memories we've got us? Madness
is infectious, says Jen, and Jeff says we had twenty
five Millson and Cargo over the weekend that I'm sure
it would be welcomed there just on the latest political
poll for what it's worth, probably not much because we're
a long way out from an election. Labor, as I said,
just pipping National in the low thirties thirty four plays
(23:41):
thirty three. Here's the interesting numbers. Act seven point seven
New Zealand first, New Zealand first five point one, just
above the threshold to Party Maori well six point five percent. Gee,
I look forward to the day Labor, the Greens and
to Party maor former government. It'll be last one to
(24:03):
leave the country or quit farming, turn the lights off.
I hate to sound so drastic and dramatic about it,
but it would be a disaster for farming. Up next
Rural News and sports News, they might have a look
at some of those results at the Rural Sports over
the weekend in Palmi North as well.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
Harland jeepsu.
Speaker 4 (24:24):
I guess taken. So welcome back to the country. It's
brought to you by Brandt very shortly the latest and
rural news and sports news. But first, a solid relationship
with farmers. It's what Ecolab has developed and nurtured over
decades of quality, effective farm hygiene products. Now that relationship
(24:49):
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ecolabs Solids Range packs the same punch, and that means
looking after the health of your farm and your animals
(25:12):
in the best way possible. So what's the difference. No
more lugging of big drums into the back of the ute,
you might say, Ecolab has your back. Quite literally. Storage
is easier too, with smaller stackable products taking up less
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(25:33):
the store. Solid products, solid partnership, solid results. That's what
farmers get with Ecolab, so solidify your relationship. Ask for
Ecolabs new solids range at your Fonterra farm source store Today.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
The country's world use with cauld Cadet. New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brands it steel Ford dot co
dot Nz for your local stocks.
Speaker 8 (26:00):
Timer took the win at the East Coast Young Farmer
Regional Finals and Masterton at the weekend. James Robbie wasn't
always a sheep and beef farmer, but traded the corporate
world for cattle three years ago after his love of
agriculture brought him home. Robbie will have the chance at
winning the Cloak of Knowledge alongside six other contestants at
the Young Farmer Grand Final in July down in Vicago,
(26:21):
and over the weekend the Rural Sportsperson of the Year
was held. Steph drive Out, who is a tree climber,
was the Rural Sportsperson of their Supreme winner and New
Zealand Rural Sportswoman of the Year. Quite at being International
Women's Day. She is a world champion tree climber.
Speaker 4 (26:36):
Yeah, I know a wee bit about Stephoff commentated the
tree climbing. It's Arbora's up in the trees. They swing
like monkeys from branch to branch. They are unbelievably athletic.
Great athlete Steph drive out congratulations.
Speaker 1 (26:52):
Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at AFCO dot co dot.
Speaker 4 (26:56):
Nz and just talking about the rural games and the
sports awards were how over the weekend in Palmi North
the speed sharing of particular interest TOA Henderson, who took
out the Golden Shares the week before, pipped Jack Fagan
who was probably the favorite for the speed Shares. So
Toer Henderson first place, Jack Fagan second and in third
(27:17):
place Brett Roberts from Matara who's on a good run
of form. Also Brett was the first time finalist in
the Golden Shares recently at Marsterton as well. And this
is my favorite sports news story for the weekend, the
fifteen hundred meters Sam Ruth versus Sam Tanner. There's no
slowing down for the fifteen year old running prodigy Sam
(27:37):
Ruth after his dead heat with Sam Tanner over fifteen
hundred meters at the Track and Field Nationals here in
Dunedin over the weekend. Craig Kirkwood, who coaches them both,
says Ruth will bid to become the youngest person to
run a sub four minute mile next week at Mount Smart.
He will be the first fifteen year old to do so.
(28:00):
Should he do it, what an athlete? That young lad
is up next? Peter Alexander, thank you. He is a
christ Church farm accountant. His name is Peter Alexander. Peter.
I always tell this story and people accuse me of
repeating myself, even some of my close friends. But a
(28:21):
good story is worth repeating. When I was a kid
growing up in the sixties and Riversdale and Southland on
the farm, my uncle, my late uncle and my late
father used to ring each other up at lunchtime because
they kind of farmed in partnership, and the start of
the conversation would always be the same, no doubt about it.
The country's bugget. Do you think anything's changed in the
(28:42):
last sixty years.
Speaker 5 (28:45):
Ah, that's a good analogy, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (28:47):
I think it's been up and down. It's been up
and down right now. It's messy. When you read The Economist,
which I do every week, very good articles in it.
They are struggling to find much joy in the next
(29:07):
three or four years.
Speaker 4 (29:09):
Okay, well the next that coincides with the rest of
the Trump term. And he's been a very disruptive president
so far. He probably has done some good things as well.
But from a trading point of view, we are a
trading nation. No matter which way you slice and dice
it up. He's not good for us, No.
Speaker 5 (29:27):
He's not.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
I mean we have a a He has a deficit
with us trading wise, it's not a big deficit, about
three billion. He actually has the other wave of Australia.
So Australia is not facing any tariffs, at least on
his present way of looking at it, whereas we might
have a tariff. Had to know how much. Could be
(29:50):
three hundred million, could be six hundred million, depending on where.
Speaker 4 (29:53):
But Peter, at this stage, I mean, this is all hypothetical,
but we don't know whether we would impose a reciprocal
tarriff back on the States if they put one on us,
so it could be a one way street.
Speaker 3 (30:05):
Yes, I'm just working on the net balance. At the moment,
we export about fourteen point six billion to America and
they explore to US about eleven point four billion, So
there's a even balance of about three point two billion,
which is pretty small potatoes on his side. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (30:23):
Well, I think we're also a valuable ally, And as
I've been fond of saying, I think we may be
able to coattail off Australia if they can do with
a deal with do a deal with them, because they
have a very close relationship with the US. Of course,
Trump not only affects trade. What he's doing will affect
inflation in the US, which ultimately in effects inflation and
(30:46):
interest rates around the world.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
Yes, I believe that our interest rates will drop a
bit further, but the way I mean inflation is written
all over what Trump is wanting do, and that will
have any effect of increasing in interest rates. So we
could see interest rates drop here further and then in
twelve months time start to rise again. It's not an
(31:09):
unrealistic expectation.
Speaker 4 (31:11):
Yeah, and now that's what a lot of economists are saying.
So should you go and unlock in a good fixed rate,
a longer term fixed rate right now?
Speaker 3 (31:20):
That's a good question At the moment. I've got to
be keptul while I write, otherwise people will assume me.
But personally I think a fixed rate maybe four point
five four point seven five for five years would be
well worth looking at. It mightn't, it may go lower,
but don't hope for the fixing at the lowest rate.
(31:42):
Facts at a rate that's very workable for you for
five years.
Speaker 4 (31:45):
That's the old sleep at night test. If you can
make it work at those levels, grab it in use
and then you can rest easily for five years.
Speaker 5 (31:53):
Now.
Speaker 4 (31:53):
News out last week from Beef and Lamb New Zealand
on their mid season update. An interesting number for me
was the average farm profit for sheep and beef farmers
at one hundred and six thousand, five hundred. It doubled
from last year. But from that, Peter, and you're the accountant.
You've got to pay your drawings, your tax, capital expenditure,
principal repayments. It's not that much. In fact, there's bigg're
(32:18):
all spare fat in the system.
Speaker 3 (32:20):
No, you're quite right. There's five two hundred viable sheep
and beef farmers in this country. There's a lot more
than that, But that survival number that's referred to, I
think probably half of them in the previous year made losses.
At the moment that one hundred and six thousand, a
big number will balance their cash flow, but to really
(32:41):
make any progress at all, they need a profit another
fifty thousand dollars higher than that. The average personal drawings.
They're all over the place that the average personal drawings
when you allow for life insurance, all sorts of other things,
is up near ninety thousand. Now for a lot of
sheep and beef operations there's almost variation. But even of
(33:02):
one hundred and six thousand, the sheep and beef sector
will be paying very little in the way of income tax.
Speaker 4 (33:08):
Well, absolutely, if you're spending ninety on drawings and you've
got one hundred and six profit, that doesn't allow anything
much for tax capital expend that you're not going to
spend much there in principal repayments. How many of your
sheep and beef farming clients are on, for instance, interest only, there.
Speaker 3 (33:27):
Would still be quite a number. The banks, as you know,
have been pushing back for a table mortgage structure. That
most of our banks, which we remember eighty five percent
of our makeshare Australia, asking for two percent of things
are going well. If things aren't going well, they wouldn't
they don't push for it, but by Chwist. They want
to see about two percent a year coming back and
(33:49):
loan principle.
Speaker 4 (33:50):
Peter Alexander, christ Church Farm Accountant, thank you as always
for your time on the country. Really appreciate it. You
have a great week in christ Church.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
Thanks Jams, Thank you, Peter.
Speaker 4 (34:01):
Ate away from one. Are we going to wrap it?
I see Jen Corkran's outside my studio window. We'll chat
to her from Rabobank to wrap the country next. So
special guest in the studio today, Jen Corkran. She is
the RABO Research Senior AG Analyst and she's just authored
(34:22):
the Q one Global Beef Quarterly Report. Good to see
you in duned and Jen, I know you were in
Wanica over the weekend for that magnificent Wanica show, but
you're based at HQ in Hamilton with Rabobank, where it's
getting very very dry, the dairy farms of the way
Gado in particular.
Speaker 10 (34:40):
Yes, Hi Dannie, It's it's lovely to be here in
Dunedin today, a beautiful sunny day after a lovely weekend
in Warnica as well. It is certainly getting dry in
the Wakido and it's kind of I'm been getting now
is starting to become a bit more past tense because
it's been dry for quite a few weeks now, so
different dynamic. But saying that, you know, there's been summers
(35:02):
that have been dry in the Waketo, and I think
with the last couple of kind ones in terms of rainfall,
we're having to remember what that looks like.
Speaker 4 (35:10):
Yeah, and I know that some farmers are not only
in the Whitekato king Country, Taranaki's very dry. They're drying off.
But I guess if you have to dry off earlier,
it lessens the blow awee bit with a ten dollar payout.
Now you're in here not to talk about dairy prices
and the good news are coming out of Fonterra at
the moment. You're in here to talk about the good
news around global beef prices. I just read the summary
(35:34):
the media release around the Q one beef quarterly report.
There is no bad news in.
Speaker 10 (35:39):
Here, Jen, not really, Jamie. It's good news. And this
is our global report from the Animal Protein team, so
it kind of looks at the full sort of year ahead,
but focusing for this one on quarter one of course,
And yeah, it's all very good news, very similar messages
to last year in terms of that production piece. But
overall global beef production is going to be down in
(36:01):
twenty twenty five compared to twenty twenty four. And again
it's that sort of northern hemisphere versus southern hemisphere.
Speaker 4 (36:07):
Why aren't more countries ramping up their beef production with
these record prices?
Speaker 10 (36:11):
Yes, Jamie, that's a good question, And it's the chicken
and egg scenario, isn't it. Because we're seeing pricing so
strong out of the US at the moment because of
the fact that they just don't have much domestic supply
in the beginning that heard rebuild, which essentially is going
to take you know, three or four years possibly, So
we do expect, you know, the demand for this lean
trimmings beef to continue right through that time, which is
(36:33):
pretty well reported. So good news for the pricing here,
and certainly we're expecting that strong amount.
Speaker 4 (36:39):
All right, let's address the elephant in the room, the
orange elephant in the room. Some people would say that
Trump Trump on his tariffs.
Speaker 10 (36:46):
Yes, so Trump, and every day we wake up, don't
we all and look at the news and see what's
going on. But I guess New Zealand's got a few
cards that we can play here. We do have something
that they need, so we've talked widely about this, right,
So beef is something we know they're going to be
needing for the next three or four years, and especially
that manufacturing lend trimmings beef. So that is a good
(37:08):
thing for us. However, tariffs are likely to be coming
in some way, shape or form. We think what that
looks like, we don't know yet, but good that we
have something that they need is a negotiating point. And
also you know we're not in the top ten of
the hit list, and we perhaps can play a role
in some of that geopolitical conversation with China and how
(37:35):
we can be perhaps helpful to the US and that's.
Speaker 4 (37:38):
Something yeah, and we may be able to coaktail off
Australia if they can do a sweetheart dear with Trump,
Jen corkorand thank you very much for paying us a
visit here at Dunedin HQ. Safe travels back to Rabobank
HQ and the Triumph. Thanks Jami, great, Thanks Jen right
just wrapping the show today. Congratulations Daniel Kenner from Caddy
Caddy in the Bay of Plan You are off to
(38:01):
the Haught New Zealand and your conference. What a great prize.
This is two days of insights, networking and industry innovation.
You've got the two day conference, the gala dinner. We've
thrown in the flights and accommodation. Will be in contact
with you after one o'clock to firm up those details.
Well done. Daniel Kenner from Caddy Caddy leave.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Catch you're the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie mcguae. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Deere machinery,
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