March 16, 2025 • 5 mins
Affco's National Livestock Manager comments on record beef returns and vastly improved lamb and mutton prices. But he's reluctant to commit to how long they'll last.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Tim Young is a f co's National livestock manager based
out of the Hawks Fay time where they tell me,
like the rest of the North Island you're starting to
get a bit dry.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Yeah, Hi Jamie, Yeah, we sure are. So. You know,
I've been traveling around a wee bit recently and Hawks
Bays dry. So have I've been able to want to
know that it's pretty cock now? Why kadow and awful?
I think it's sort of quite general now. And then
obviously down South Island and down to Wanaka Shaw a
week or two back and it was very dry around
that area as well.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Yeah, are the rains will come? Now? Will the tariffs come?
And what's planned B? What's planned B for New Zealand
meat companies if we get hit with the Trump tariff.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Well, at the moment, things are going okay. So markets
are firm and I guess it's reflected on some pretty
pretty good pricing that farmers are enjoying at the moment.
I mean, I had a pretty good discussion with one
of our sales guys this morning about Trump and he said, well,
what will be will be. We can't control home, but
he can obviously change his mind from one day to
(01:01):
the next. But we think we don't think you have
too many issues just yet. But I think, as I've
pointed out to you before, sort of two to three
months ahead of ourselves, as can be a long time
in this business.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
The US is now our biggest market for red meat.
We surely can't redirect that product to other places around
the world.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Well, you'd be surprised that we can do. I mean,
if you go back to when China was probably one
of New Zealand's biggest our leads for meat, and then
they came out of covid and and buy what they
were buying. We found homes for a lot of meat
that was going to China. So I think there's always
a way around everything. So I wouldn't panic just yet.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Record beef prices we here that it will take the
US three or four years to rebuild their beef herd.
Does that mean these record prices or very good prices
are here to stay for the next three or four
seasons or am I being way too optimistic?
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Well, I don't know if you're being optimistic, but I
think it's as I've seen before, it's very hard to
predict the future in the meat game. So you know,
I've heard these sorts of future predictions before, and then
somehow or other, some extra meat seems to be produced
in South America or whatever. So like i'd say, you
look steady, steady for the next two to three months
(02:16):
into the future, but I'd like, I would want to
bet two three years out. But yeah, it's certainly looking okay.
But I don't want you to hang me with that
statement that everything looks great for two years.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Joy you surprised Tom Young how well LAMB has held
up this season?
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Yes, here we are. I mean we started to push
on getting some sort of value back into the farmer's
pocket back in September last year, so we put a
contract out. I think it wasn't about July or August.
I can't recall the exact time, but we decided at
an f CO level, at a board level, that we
needed to get some confidence back into the game because
it was getting dire. We put a guaranteed minium price
(02:56):
out I think it's seven sixty in September, and as
it turned out, the market's improved quite quickly and that
price became reality. And now we're sort of all sitting
on eight dollars and better. And what's good about it
is it's been stable the last few months and there's
no reason at this point in time we think too
much is going to change. So if you've got a
good lamb, you know, an eighteen nineteen to twenty ko
(03:16):
lamb at eight on dollars, you're sort of you're getting
well paid, which is nice to see.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
Yeah, one one sixty dollars. I was playing golf yesterday
with some sheep farmers from Riversdale who were licking their
wounds after their three but trip too, I might add tom,
but they were reasonably happy with the returns for meat
and not so not so with woll Do you think
that we're in danger of becoming a sheep breeding nation
(03:40):
that breeds sheep without wool.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Well, in the last few years we've certainly seen a
few people change, I suppose in that direction with the
breeds that they are running. But I think I still
think there's a place for the traditional breed in New Zealand.
And it was it was only a month or two
ago from what I understood. If you still had a
you know, if you had a better you know, I
guess what we use, and you had good, solid crossbred wall.
(04:06):
You were starting to see almost a break even position
on shearing, which was a whole lot better than losing money,
I guess, but it's Yeah, I don't think, Percy, I
don't think you're going to see a mess. Have switched
to non wall bearing sheep? No?
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Well, Tom, have we been conditioned? I mean, if someone
had said that to you twenty or thirty years ago,
you'll break even on your wall and sharing costs, you
would say, bugger that, I'm not having a having a
bar of that. So you do have to wonder, with
the reduced labor input that some of these self shedding
or non wool producing sheep have, that it may just
be the way to go, which is a tragedy because gee,
(04:44):
you only got to go back to the nineteen fifties,
wool was our biggest single export.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Yeah, yeah, well, I guess you're right. But I do think,
you know, if you've got to if you've got a
particular breed, or you've got the genetics there of it,
or whatever you're doing when you farm, jumping in and
out of markets is not the clever, or changing what
you're doing in a hurry is not the clever. A long,
long time ago. I used to work in rural banking,
and one of the things that was sort of you
(05:11):
could see the beginning of the end was people would
change stock policies or make radical changes because they thought
they'd get on the next way. But if you sort
of get out of something when things are struggling, you
tend to give one class a stock away and then
overpay getting into the next class. So I think you
will be a little bit considered before you radically change
farming policy.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Don't talk to me about goats in the nineteen eighties time.
It's still a sore point.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
You know, you lost a bit of money there, did Jayment?
Speaker 1 (05:37):
No, I lost a bit of sweat sharing them from
a mate across the road. That's a long story. Don't
start me on goats, but I know a lot of people.
I know a lot of people did lose a bit
of money on them as well. Hey, thanks for your time,
and long may the lamb price, the mutton price, and
the beef price stay where they are at the moment.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
It's good one hundred percent. Thanks for that talk. Next time,
Tim Young is a f co's National livestock manager based
out of the Hawks Fay time where they tell me,
like the rest of the North Island you're starting to
get a bit dry.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Yeah, Hi Jamie, Yeah, we sure are. So. You know,
I've been traveling around a wee bit recently and Hawks
Bays dry. So have I've been able to want to
know that it's pretty cock now? Why kadow and awful?
I think it's sort of quite general now. And then
obviously down South Island and down to Wanaka Shaw a
week or two back and it was very dry around
that area as well.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Yeah, are the rains will come? Now? Will the tariffs come?
And what's planned B? What's planned B for New Zealand
meat companies if we get hit with the Trump tariff.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Well, at the moment, things are going okay. So markets
are firm and I guess it's reflected on some pretty
pretty good pricing that farmers are enjoying at the moment.
I mean, I had a pretty good discussion with one
of our sales guys this morning about Trump and he said, well,
what will be will be. We can't control home, but
he can obviously change his mind from one day to
(01:01):
the next. But we think we don't think you have
too many issues just yet. But I think, as I've
pointed out to you before, sort of two to three
months ahead of ourselves, as can be a long time
in this business.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
The US is now our biggest market for red meat.
We surely can't redirect that product to other places around
the world.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Well, you'd be surprised that we can do. I mean,
if you go back to when China was probably one
of New Zealand's biggest our leads for meat, and then
they came out of covid and and buy what they
were buying. We found homes for a lot of meat
that was going to China. So I think there's always
a way around everything. So I wouldn't panic just yet.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Record beef prices we here that it will take the
US three or four years to rebuild their beef herd.
Does that mean these record prices or very good prices
are here to stay for the next three or four
seasons or am I being way too optimistic?
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Well, I don't know if you're being optimistic, but I
think it's as I've seen before, it's very hard to
predict the future in the meat game. So you know,
I've heard these sorts of future predictions before, and then
somehow or other, some extra meat seems to be produced
in South America or whatever. So like i'd say, you
look steady, steady for the next two to three months
(02:16):
into the future, but I'd like, I would want to
bet two three years out. But yeah, it's certainly looking okay.
But I don't want you to hang me with that
statement that everything looks great for two years.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Joy you surprised Tom Young how well LAMB has held
up this season?
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Yes, here we are. I mean we started to push
on getting some sort of value back into the farmer's
pocket back in September last year, so we put a
contract out. I think it wasn't about July or August.
I can't recall the exact time, but we decided at
an f CO level, at a board level, that we
needed to get some confidence back into the game because
it was getting dire. We put a guaranteed minium price
(02:56):
out I think it's seven sixty in September, and as
it turned out, the market's improved quite quickly and that
price became reality. And now we're sort of all sitting
on eight dollars and better. And what's good about it
is it's been stable the last few months and there's
no reason at this point in time we think too
much is going to change. So if you've got a
good lamb, you know, an eighteen nineteen to twenty ko
(03:16):
lamb at eight on dollars, you're sort of you're getting
well paid, which is nice to see.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
Yeah, one one sixty dollars. I was playing golf yesterday
with some sheep farmers from Riversdale who were licking their
wounds after their three but trip too, I might add tom,
but they were reasonably happy with the returns for meat
and not so not so with woll Do you think
that we're in danger of becoming a sheep breeding nation
(03:40):
that breeds sheep without wool.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Well, in the last few years we've certainly seen a
few people change, I suppose in that direction with the
breeds that they are running. But I think I still
think there's a place for the traditional breed in New Zealand.
And it was it was only a month or two
ago from what I understood. If you still had a
you know, if you had a better you know, I
guess what we use, and you had good, solid crossbred wall.
(04:06):
You were starting to see almost a break even position
on shearing, which was a whole lot better than losing money,
I guess, but it's Yeah, I don't think, Percy, I
don't think you're going to see a mess. Have switched
to non wall bearing sheep? No?
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Well, Tom, have we been conditioned? I mean, if someone
had said that to you twenty or thirty years ago,
you'll break even on your wall and sharing costs, you
would say, bugger that, I'm not having a having a
bar of that. So you do have to wonder, with
the reduced labor input that some of these self shedding
or non wool producing sheep have, that it may just
be the way to go, which is a tragedy because gee,
(04:44):
you only got to go back to the nineteen fifties,
wool was our biggest single export.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Yeah, yeah, well, I guess you're right. But I do think,
you know, if you've got to if you've got a
particular breed, or you've got the genetics there of it,
or whatever you're doing when you farm, jumping in and
out of markets is not the clever, or changing what
you're doing in a hurry is not the clever. A long,
long time ago. I used to work in rural banking,
and one of the things that was sort of you
(05:11):
could see the beginning of the end was people would
change stock policies or make radical changes because they thought
they'd get on the next way. But if you sort
of get out of something when things are struggling, you
tend to give one class a stock away and then
overpay getting into the next class. So I think you
will be a little bit considered before you radically change
farming policy.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Don't talk to me about goats in the nineteen eighties time.
It's still a sore point.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
You know, you lost a bit of money there, did Jayment?
Speaker 1 (05:37):
No, I lost a bit of sweat sharing them from
a mate across the road. That's a long story. Don't
start me on goats, but I know a lot of people.
I know a lot of people did lose a bit
of money on them as well. Hey, thanks for your time,
and long may the lamb price, the mutton price, and
the beef price stay where they are at the moment.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
It's good one hundred percent. Thanks for that talk. Next time,
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