The Country 19/03/25: Bruce Weir talks to Jamie Mackay

The Rabobank general manager for country banking says improved sentiment among sheep and beef farmers has helped drive a third consecutive lift in New Zealand farmer confidence in the first Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey of the year.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So let's kick off the show today with the good
news story. It is the latest Rabobank Rural Confidence survey.
We're heading to Sydney. He's over there for a board meeting.
He mixes with the rich and famous, the GM for
Country Banking for Rabobank, Bruce Ware and Bruce, you'd do
anything to get away from that Whitecado drought in the tron.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
Yes, pretty bad there, Jamie, but I do understand we've
had ten mills of rain yesterday and overnight.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
So we'll take that absolutely, you'll take it. We'll also
take the improved sentiment among sheep and beef farmers, which
has helped drive a third consecutive lift in that farmer
confidence survey. This is your first one for twenty twenty five.
Talk us through some of the numbers.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
Bruce, Yeah, Jamie, you're following the big jump in quarter
four twenty fourth farmer conference has risen it, you say,
exciting thing is actually the third time in a row.
The next net confidence is now sitting at forty four percent,
up from thirty four percent, which is its second highest
reading recorded over the past ten years, with quarter to

(01:03):
twenty seventeen being the highest at fifty two percent. So
let's hope we've turned a corner. But like you say,
it was really nice to see this time around sheep
and beef farmers leading the charge, recording the biggest uplift
up forty one up to forty one percent from twenty percent.

Speaker 1 (01:20):
Yeah, and I guess that's driven off the back of
record beef prices and lambs up a couple of dollars
of kilo on where it was last year. Mutton's better.
We just need the strong wall to come right, Bruce Ware,
I'm not holding the breath on that one.

Speaker 2 (01:34):
No, that's a different story I think near Jamie. But
as you know, last time we spoke towards in the
last year, there was a wee bit of optimism in
sheep and beef, and we just needed those red meat
prices to hold Bucktor trends of those sort of sort
of sticker summer period months. But as we know, they've
certainly done that and in places actually above five year averages.

Speaker 1 (01:54):
Now, when we look at the reason farmers are positive,
these are probably self evident. I could have saved you.
The problem of doing is survey, Bruce, because you don't
have to be a rocket scientist to figure out higher
commodity prices driving the positivity that's coming from sixty two
percent of those surveyed falling interest rates. This is interesting
from a bank's point of view. Was second place at

(02:16):
twenty two percent. I thought it might have been higher,
And I think, Bruce, this is just a reflection of
how slow U banks have been in dropping interest rates.
What do you say in your defense.

Speaker 2 (02:26):
Oh, I think we're doing all we can the Jamie,
We're following the ACR down, so maybe we need more
cuts quicker. Now.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
Those who were identified as looking less favorably at the
year ahead, and it wasn't many of them. Most farmers
are reasonably positive at the moment once again. Rising input
costs thirty three percent, no surprise there, But government and
intervention and policies is topping the list at thirty seven percent.
Once again, a wee bit of a surprise for me,

(02:56):
because I don't think this government could be too much
more farmer friendly.

Speaker 2 (03:01):
Yeah, look, I do fit I did find that a
wee bit of a surprise. But I do wonder if
the sort of macroeconomic climate gets pulled into that from
the global space. So maybe that's just not farmers minds too,
I believe.

Speaker 1 (03:17):
Okay, so there's a good positive rural confidence survey from Rabobank.
I'm just coming back to Hamilton where you're based the
White Cato. In fact, the Wide and North Island, especially
the west and northern parts, are in a drought. You
mentioned ten mills of rain overnight. It's not a drought breaker,
but it's a start. So are you seeing dairy farmers
drying off early?

Speaker 2 (03:37):
I think is a huge sort of drawing cares off
or going once a day. I think we're sort of
still waiting for that rain to come. We've had a
couple of really good seasons with supplements, so there's still
plenty of supplement on hand, so I guess with the
reasonable solid payout, still it makes economic sense to be

(03:58):
put a wee bit more feed and Jenny. So, but
we don't get rained soon. In the forecast, i'd imagine
to see we'll start seeing people drawing off.

Speaker 1 (04:06):
Just a final one for you. A bit later in
the show, we're going to be chatting to Andy Borland,
who used to be the chair of Rabobank. I know
you know him well now. I know that you're a
tertiary educated man. You don't get to be the GM
of a rabobank or for country banking without a good
solid degree behind you. Were you a Lincoln guy or
a Massy guy?

Speaker 2 (04:26):
No, No, I had quite good marks, Jamie, so I
got him too, Messy.

Speaker 1 (04:29):
That's a bit of a cheap shot. I was going
to ask you if you went to Lincoln. Of course,
there's a rugby reunion coming up, and I know you're
a very keen rugby man.

Speaker 2 (04:38):
Yeah. Yeah, I certainly heard a wee bit about that.
It'll be good to watch on the sidelines, I guess.
But I do have a connection with Lincoln. My daughter
actually started Lincoln this year, so she went against her
mother and I and decided to skip Messy and head
to Lincoln.

Speaker 1 (04:55):
Good honor. Indeed, Lincoln's doing very well. More than five
thousand students, in fact, might be five and a half
thousand students on campus and online. So that's a damn
fine result for a university that a few years ago
was in deep trouble. More about that Lincoln Rugby reunion
Lincoln College Rugby reunion a bit later in the hour.
But bruce Ware GM for Country Banking for Rabobank, Thanks

(05:16):
for some of your time from Sydney today

Speaker 2 (05:19):
You think shemy, not yet