April 2, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Winston Peters, Wayne Langford, Ben Picton, and Chris Russell.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckaye thanks to Brent the starkest of
the leading agriculture brands.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Gooday, New Zealand and welcome to the Country. I'm Jamie mackay.
A party in the USA. Liberation Day, Dana about that,
We're going to get some commentary today on Trump's Tariff's
no time to waste. Let's welcome on to the show
the Deputy Prime Minister Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peter's Liberation
Day ten percent tariff. It could have been worse, Winston.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Look, it's a tremendous result. They were talking about twenty percent,
but they gave us eight ten percent, the lowest of
all the countries. So to speak. It is a tremendous
outcome for the next wars because if they see the
advantage they've got at that low rate of ten percent,
then going forward to a very positive outcome. It couldn't
(01:17):
have done better. We tried well.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Ten percents the minimum tariff applied to any country around
the world. But Trump claims that there's a twenty percent
tariff on US coults coming into New Zealand. That's not true.
Is he counting GST and on that.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Well, there is a number of theories about whether he
is writer riding at twenty percent. It could be the
different from the last measured year of our experts versus theirs,
so that would be twenty percent exactly. So when they
arrived at that calculation mistakenly doesn't matter. We still got
ten percent, the lowest of all the countries in this
(01:57):
imposition or tariff ofm abroad. It's far better than what
some of our farmers thought twenty five percent plus, So
it's good news.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Okay. They are our second biggest trading partner nine billion,
twelve percent of our exports by value, so ten percent
of nine billions what nine hundred million? Yeah, it's going
to hurt, but I guess it's going to be worse.
Could these tariffs offer us? Offer us opportunities in other markets?
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Tatically? But it also offers opportunities in the American market
because some comes we are competing with are being hit
with a much higher tariff. So it makes our competitiveness
better and not worse.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
What's it going to do to the Chinese economy? For instance?
A thirty four percent tariff?
Speaker 4 (02:40):
There?
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Surely that is going to affect the state of the
Chinese economy, who are our biggest trading partner.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Yes, well, you haven't got the Chinese quirements on this program.
You've got me forty Zeeland. You've got to Chinese for
minutes to long.
Speaker 5 (02:55):
You that.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Okay, So that's the end of that commentary on that one.
Who do you reckon ultimately bears the costs of these tariffs?
Is it US as an exporter or is it ultimately
the American consumer? They can't get enough of our grinding beef.
Ditto for Australia hamburgers are going to cost more than
the United States.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
Yeah, that's the very essence of the ideological argument that's
going on here and what the American administration is saying.
This is going to be great for the American worker
because they're going to be far more competitive against markets
where the exporting cars they were being hit by six
ninety percent plus and was very damaging. They were importing
(03:38):
cars from these other countries with a very low tariff
while being slammed in the country that they were trying
to export their home product to my cars another product.
But that's for the Americans to work out. Our job,
as I said was a key bour council, key carm
wait till the dust settles in the dust settle settled
in the best possible place we would have expected. The
money got a dance and made that chart. And many
(04:00):
of us were cheering from the rappists because we knew
we've got our message away, that we'd be imposed at
the very low from ten percent. Nobody's done better than that.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Are you being a bit timid on this one? Anthony
Albansi across the Tasman has come out and said, this
is not the act of a friend. Are we cowering
to the US?
Speaker 3 (04:21):
No, not going to the US, and we're not actually
speaking to other countries. They can handle their foreign affairs
and they're messaging all by themselves. Our job is to
look at the five zero point five million New Zealands
and make sure we get the best gossil outcome. And
today we are responsible. They after all our masters they
are and the illners that want the best possible outcome,
and we have secured that.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Let's just finish on what you've been up to in
the past week. You've been on the front foot, you've
charged down the wicket. When it comes to the greens.
It's been quite good sporting, quite a good sporting spectacle.
To be perfectly honest, you're not sparing the Rod, and
no pun intended around the late Rod Ronald and the
late Jeannette that simons you speak highly of them, you
(05:04):
don't speak highly of the current lot. I don't blame you.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
There are just a massive deceitful mess that came into
this palm on the basis of the environment. But they're
spent all their time with ominous policies, saying out in
rageous things that the police force are not required, that
the police force are far more dangerous in the gangs
one after the other that made these stupid comments, and
then they're trying to defend in the MPEd well indepensible.
(05:30):
Please explain to us by fifty two plus for taking
down what do they mean and what was the effect
of them in a country that has first wall halls,
which has policies to defend the rights of tulam. This
person was screaming out for purity blockers and told them
to get operations for sexual transfers on demand. This is
(05:52):
out major stuff and we are calling them to account.
But be more importantly, I asked to manastream media. Why
haven't you challenged them when you've counted and you've tell
us other member's apartment, particularly government parties, every chance you get.
And here you've been given an elector icing of a
pence you're doing nothing about it.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Did you have any idea at all what bussy or
bussy meant before this Benjamin Doyle stuff all blew.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Up at the moment I started seeing the posts and
we've got some advice because it was not innocent, but innocent,
and that's what I want the illness to know, particularly
Green voters. And then of course I had the front
of me just try and say that the Rainbow community
was all on their side and the Rainbow community in
(06:41):
Yet thousands are coming out now saying no, no. Winston
Banns is right to Marasi's questions and more importantly, they're
resigning on mass from the Green Party as we speak.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Mind you are the Green Party the biggest villains in Parliament.
What does that belong to to party? Mari Roweri and
Debbie they're just sumbing their nose basically. But the Privileges Committee,
I note that Judith Collins has quite literally been biting
a tongue off to be diplomatic on this one. But
they need the book thrown at them, don't they.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Well, I imagine your rugul league player, the NURL committee says,
you've been offensive. We want to see you. We want
to have an investigation that they're hanging played on the
padic and you told them to nap off. How long
would you be last in the playing skill? It goes
for all types of communities, all types of sports. We
all accepted that ruling when we came department, except in
(07:32):
this group decide no, No, they're above any criticism, they're
above being questioned. They're going to set all rules all
by themselves. And there's no one in the Mayal maren
will a belief that's a teque owner or the law,
and no one in the community who's halfway reasonable thinks
of what they're doing as right. So we're giving them
one more chance to turn up on the twenty third
(07:53):
of April and say don't. Then we'll see what the
conferences are.
Speaker 4 (07:57):
Now.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
I know you won't want to talk about this, but
next Fridays of very special day for you, you're going
to be out of the country. I wanted you to
be on the country our show next Friday, because you're
blowing out eighty candles, can you point this, Well, that's
a pretty good innings, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
I know.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
My point is this. My researches tell me that you're
the eighth longest serving politician in New Zealand history at
thirty seven years and thirty days of service. You started
way back in May nineteen seventy seven. Apparently the record
Winston is forty years and one hundred and ninety three days. Now,
I figure if you stay for another term, you're going
(08:36):
to break that record.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
Well, I never ever thought i'd be doing this job
when I started out in the politics. But you know,
maybe I was younger and experience and I thought I'd
got an apartment, I'll change things. But because of certain influences,
things to take a long time. It's been a working
project and when when it's follow it still will not
be finished. But do you hope that you led a
big enough framework down for others to do it in
(09:01):
the way that I've tried to follow how they've made
leaders in the past, many of whom i'vemed from other
political pays. I don't know why by so surprised, because Frankly,
I saw a man just announce the whole tariffhrasing for
the world just a few hours ago. And he's my age,
Warren Buffet, still bouncing around and still being consulted. And
(09:22):
as to how you run the fund management schemes, my
friend Mahatir, who came back when he's ninety three to
be the Prime Minister of Malaysia is almost one hundred
and he's still giving advice. So lets me I put it,
Let's speak grateful that you had the fortune that others
did not have and who are did by now it's
(09:43):
just a lucky day. So having a celebration because he survived.
It's not mine what I'm about.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Well, mcjag is still going strong and he's your age
as well.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
People say to me, you've got a great song. Start
me up, that's what we're doing.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Okay, one more before I go. People who know that
I talk to you on a regular basis say what
does Winston bother at his age? And I know you
won't like that commentary, but I say to them, I say,
politics is like your version of golf. I think it's
your hobby. Am I right in saying that?
Speaker 6 (10:13):
No?
Speaker 3 (10:14):
You tell those people that around this country. The moment
as ippo, it's been kept going by many people over
sixty five who do all sorts of blunt you with.
If they were to stop, our society would collapse tomorrow.
So their job is when you see some old guy
or some old lady down there doing full day's work
and keeping entry going, and mindases voluntarily go up and
(10:34):
to thank them because it's important.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Winston Peters, thank you very much for your time. Good
luck next Friday, and don't get breathless blowing out those
eighty candles, thank you too. All Right, there we go,
Winston Peter's Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Affairs Minister, his take
on Liberation Day, the Trump tariffs. We're going to get
(10:59):
some experts commentary before the end of the hour. We're
going to head to Australia to catch up with being
picked in. He's Rabobank's senior strategist. That's a flash word
for chief economists, so we'll get his take on that one.
And I'm also going to ask him. We've not only
got Winston's birthday to look forward to next Friday. Next Wednesday,
(11:21):
April the ninth, we have an OCR announcement. What will
Trump's tariff and then the inflation it's likely to cause
around the world or is it going to do for
interest rates around the world. It's an interesting question. Our
Ossie correspondent is Chris Russell. We'll get his take on
it from an Assie point of view. Why did Trump
(11:43):
call out the Australian beef. We'll tell you all about that.
But up next it is the National President of Federated Farmers,
Tasman dairy farmer Wayne Langford. I'm going to try and
find out about the Atmospheric River and whether it's at
the Tasman region. And just yet you're with the country
that's rock.
Speaker 7 (12:04):
You gotta be from out of town.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
One of my girls on AM is the Monestly not
a national party because.
Speaker 8 (12:14):
I never got the.
Speaker 7 (12:15):
Man dog the US.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Welcome back to the country twenty two after twelve Wine Length.
That is the National President of Federated Farmers. He is
also a Tasman dairy farm We're going to talk about
the Atmospheric River and just a tick, Wayne, But I
know you didn't hear Winston Peters who kicked off the show.
Sorry for dumping you to first drop on the show today.
(12:56):
But what do you make of the Trump TERRFF announcement.
Speaker 9 (13:00):
Yeah, no, you're right. The atmosphere river sense we've taken
out the country in my house. I don't know what's happened,
but we never sought that out. But certainly, certainly some
challenges are going forward. That's it's to be clear, and
there'll be there'll be plenty to be worked through, as
will be happening around probably every country around the world
at the moment. I mean, where one country shuts down,
(13:22):
hopefully another will open and there there'll be a bit
of a few changes there. But but I mean early days,
there's a lot of lots work through before we get
too worried. I think just at the stage.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Well, Winston's notoriously if I if I'm using that word
correctly pro American, he's almost painting this is a great
victory ten percents as.
Speaker 9 (13:41):
Low as it goes, well, he can call it that.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 9 (13:45):
Yeah, we'll see how the farmers that they're feel it
in their back pocket call it or what it ultimately
means to them. So it'll be it will be interesting
to see where we where we end up. You know,
I'm not an expert trade commentator, so I haven't gone
into it heavily to rather waiting to sit back and
truly reflect on what it will mean and what it
exactly will mean for our farmers on the ground.
Speaker 2 (14:07):
How is the atmospheric river, because I'm looking at the
met Service forecast for Marlborough and Nelson rain with heavy
falls clearing to find tomorrow afternoon if you had any
of those heavy falls yet, Wayne, Yeah, we're apped.
Speaker 9 (14:21):
About one hundred and thirty millimeters, which for Golden Bay
is a bit of a sunshower. I know it's not
none a part of the country, but it's just getting
started here now. The heavy rain. It's about fifteen mili
an hour coming into the moment and it's just starting
to fly across the farm. So we're bending down for
the next twelve hours to be pretty heavy and salt.
But hopefully if it behaves itself and remains pretty constant,
(14:43):
it should just flow on straight on out to see.
But let's cross our fingers and hope that's case.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
How dry were you getting well?
Speaker 9 (14:52):
The Tasman regim was declared and to drought, but that
was mainly through the Nelson down through Merchison type area
there on now side of the attack to help on
the Golden Bay side. Yes, we would certainly starting to
dry out in a kind of into our standard summer
dry or a bit past that. So this reign is
really welcome for us and will certainly help set us
that for winter.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
Yeah, and it looks like it's going to head up
country and hopefully sort out some of the dry regions
in the North Island as well. What a Federated Farmer's
been up to? I know that was it Monday Show. Yeah,
we spoke to Richard McIntyre, banking spokesperson. It seems like
the feeds have had a bit of a wing a win,
should I say with the banking inquiry.
Speaker 9 (15:32):
Well, I think we're still getting there, right, I think.
I think when we first dug into that, we wondered
what we were getting into, and it's starting to really
open up now and show that there's a lot more
going on than what we first thought. So it's great
that the government taking notice that they're taking action hopefully
and it should end up in a really good result
(15:52):
for farmers. I think, as Richard said, if it ends
up with the average farmer getting forty four thousand dollars
a year, then certainly No, will be complaining about paying
their feeds membership every year.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
No. I think you're doing a good job, but it
seems bizarre that the banks have to hold enough capital
for a one and two hundred year financial events.
Speaker 9 (16:13):
That's correct that you've under that right there. We don't
need to probably say anymore.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Okay. Also you've submitted about GMO. Gee, that's a can
of worms used today. What are the feeds saying on that?
Speaker 9 (16:27):
Yeah? Our National Council met in November to form our
position on that, and we certainly took a lot of
feedback from farmacies. I've had my phone ringing and emails
coming through our submission yesterday. While we voted in favor
of the bill, it was really clear that we.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Voted for that.
Speaker 9 (16:44):
We'll submitted sorry on a farmer's right to choose, and
that's really important because that not only protects the farmers
that well UCM own and want to get into that space,
but also those that don't. How do we make sure
that we look after the farmers that are organic or
simply are not one to use GMO while we look
at these new technologies that we're bringing in. So it
(17:06):
was an interesting discussion ten minutes twitch turned into I
think sixteen or seventeen minutes in front of the Select
Committee with some really challenging questions. So you know, I
think this one's far from done and there's still plenty
of work to work through to see where we end
up with it all.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
At the end of the day, this GMO debate final
question or comment is a bit of a double edged
sword for New Zealand.
Speaker 9 (17:29):
It is, and that's the question, how do we do
it safely? How do we manage the risk? How what
effect will have on our markets? And I think there's
a few of the questions that are not only in
Select Committee, but ultimately the Minister is still asking. As
you know, Ifeeds have campaigned on the questions to be asked,
well can we use it? Is it time to have
(17:50):
a look at using it? And can we use it?
And so that's the process that we're working through now.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
Now.
Speaker 9 (17:57):
As I mentioned, I've heard from both sides of the fence.
Farmers that are they came to get into it and
see what it could couldn't tell, and also those that
are really concerned about their businesses and their businesses that
are relying on being GMO free and what that'll mean
for them and how ultimately, how do we protect them.
So we feel like we're strongly representing both of those
cases when we say we're protecting the farmer's right to test.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
Wayne Langford, National President of Federated Farmers, thanks for your time.
Speaker 9 (18:23):
Yeah, thanks Jammin.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
Yet and as twenty eight after twelve, we're going to
take a break on the other side of it, Michelle
with the latest in rural news. We'll have a look
at sports news as well. Are going to get some
expert commentary on Trump's tariff announcement. It's the big story
of today from being picked in these Rabobanks senior strategists
(18:45):
based out of Sydney, and also next week not only
Winston's birthday, but an I see our announcement from the
Reserve Bank, what's going to happen to interestrates? Chris Russell's
our assie correspondent to wrap the country today as well.
Speaker 4 (19:07):
Time ago.
Speaker 7 (19:09):
I can still remember how that music used to make
me smile, and I.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Knew, if I had my chance, that.
Speaker 8 (19:21):
I could make those people dance.
Speaker 4 (19:24):
And maybe they'd be happy.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
For a while.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
But February made me shiver with every paper chee I
could listen to Don McClain for the rest of the hour.
But we've got people to talk to, places to go to,
in fact, a couple of visits to Australia. We're going
to get Ben Pickton, Chief Economists for Rabobankers thoughts on
Liberation Day. But before we do that, here's Michelle with
(19:52):
the latest and rural news.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
The country's world news with cop Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on Lawnlow. Visit Steelford dot co dot Nz for
your local Stoggist.
Speaker 5 (20:03):
And another regional Supreme winner was announced and the Balance
Farm Environment Towards last night to Peterson of brown Or
Farm in Raglan was crowned the Regional Supreme Winner of
the Wykettle region last night. The next Regional awards is
today in Tartanaki, with a Tago in Southland having near
turn next week. And of course the Great Big Grand
Finale is going to be I think in June and Wellington.
(20:25):
So all those regional winners get to go on the
thing with the big trophy, don't they.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
Yes, they do. Indeed always Wellington they hold it at
the beehive. It's great, Oh that fantastic. Yeah, it will
be right anything else. That is all for me.
Speaker 5 (20:37):
You go sport there for you.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Oh yeah, I haven't even read it. I wonder what's
happening in sport sport with AFCO.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Visit them online at a FCO dot co dot nz.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
We've been too busy worrying about Liberation Day. Okay, here's sport.
Former Wallaby Israel Fallal's hopes of playing for an ANZAC
side against the Lions in July have been scuppered Rugby
Australia boss Phil war who possibly played with Israel. Philow,
he's a former Wallaby, says players like Filale who have
switched international allegiance ineligible and this is sad news. Courtney
(21:12):
Duncan's unsure whether she will resume her motocross career as
she deals with the serious heart issue. And of course
Courtney Duncan's from just up the road from us in Dunedin,
Palmerston or up that way, and she's not only a
world champion motocross rider, but she's a wonderfully bubbly and
vivacious and nice human being.
Speaker 5 (21:34):
And actually, Jamie, back when I used to do motocross,
she was just a tiny little dot on a wee bike.
So it's crazy to see her.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
It's not bad name dropping, Michelle. Good work. Did you
beat her?
Speaker 5 (21:44):
She got to raise her and to be honest, I
know I definitely would not have beaten her even then.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Yeah, she's a champion. Good luck, Courtney, go well up.
Next we're heading to Australia. Ben picton his take on
Liberation Day.
Speaker 4 (21:56):
But that's not hard use when it is Liberation Day.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Let's get some commentary on Trump's tariffs. Our expert in
the field, or one of them is being picked and
he's a senior strata just effectively. The chief economist for
Rabobank based out of Sydney, Albow. Your Prime Minister Anthony
Albanisi said it was not the act of a friend,
but being picked in that ten percent? Did Australia and
(22:37):
New Zealand get off lightly?
Speaker 6 (22:40):
Jamie, Yeah, I think it's fair to say that Australia
and New Zealand have come out comparatively well in this
round of reciprocal tariffs. So if we look through the lift,
some of the numbers applied to other countries that are
quite a bit higher than the ten percent that New
Zealand and Australia are facing for Cambodia at forty nine percent,
(23:01):
Sri Lanka at forty four, Bangledes thirty seven, China thirty four,
Indonesia thirty two. So ten percent looks okay in the context.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
Yeah, not to mention Japan at twenty four percent, India
twenty six, the EU at twenty Yet the UK ben
picked and got away with ten percent like US.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 6 (23:23):
So it's interesting looking not just at the tariffs that
the US is imposing on other countries, but also at
the numbers that the US calculated as the equivalent tariff
rate that the United States faces when exporting into these
other markets. And something that stuck out to me is
that they face trade barriers of about ten percent tariff
(23:46):
equivalent for Australia, but for New Zealand they calculate that
figure at about twenty percent. So maybe if there's another
shoe to drop in the trade war at some point,
New Zealand might be a little bit more exposed than
what Australia.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
Stephen Jacoby, a trade expert here in New Zealand. I'm
sure you're well aware of him. He said, unjustified, painful,
but at a lower level of pain than expected, and
as I said Albanizi, your guys said, not the act
of a friend. We send nine billion dollars worth of
goods to the US. They're our second biggest trading partner,
twelve percent of exports by value. Who ultimately bears the
(24:25):
cost of this Is it US as the exporter or
the Americans as the end consumer.
Speaker 6 (24:31):
Yeah, so there's going to be a bit of a
mix between the two, but ultimately the end consumer will
pay more of the cost of the tariffs than what
the exporting nations will. So what we would expect to
see is slightly lower prices for some of the things
that we're exporting to the United States. And beef really
sticks out as the number one export for both New
Zealand and Australia going to the USA. But the USA
(24:56):
can't supply its own consumption needs with beef produced inside
the USA. So what's going to happen in the short
term at least is higher prices for US consumers. So
most of the cost of these tasks will actually be
born by US citizens.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
Why did Trump call out Australian beef in particular, because
our Australian correspondent, Chris Russell is coming up on the show.
Shortly texted me earlier this morning and said, maybe Australia
is a bit guilty of using biosecurity as a bit
of a shield and the Americans are none too happy
about it.
Speaker 6 (25:31):
Yeah, So this is something that the USA has been
complaining about for years and years that Australia imposes non
tariff barriers through our biosecurity measures. So we restricts fresh food,
particularly from coming into the Australian market. So we don't
allow us beef, we don't allow apples and pears, we
(25:54):
don't allow fresh pork products, and we don't allow poultry
products either because of biosecurity reasons. But there are questions
around the validity of some of the biosecurity concerns that
have been raised by the United States Trade representative over
many years. They haven't been happy about it. So there
(26:16):
is a little bit of a sense on the American
side that some of these biosecurity laws are sort of
shadow tariffs that have been imposed by Australia.
Speaker 2 (26:26):
Wall Street obviously not trading at the moment it's evening
or nighttime in the US. The Australian and New Zealand
share markets didn't like it. I think Wall Street futures
trading was down two percent. It looks like the world
economy doesn't like this at all.
Speaker 6 (26:42):
Yeah, well that's the financial economy. So Donald Trump has
been pretty clear that he's putting these in place for
US manufacturers and farmers, not the US bankers and hedge funds.
So that's probably not the constituency that he's trying to
keep happy with these sorts of measures. We've had it
(27:03):
very very good for about forty years through increased trade
liberalization and financialization in the financial markets, and the shoe
might be on the other foot at the moment.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
So being picked in with US senior stratages for Rabobank
out of Sydney ben ocr next Wednesday, what are you picking?
Speaker 6 (27:21):
Yeah, well, we think the IRBNZ is going to cut again,
but the cut won't be as big as what we've
had recently. So we're expecting point two five percentage points
next week, and we think we'll get one more of
those in May as well.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
What about Trump with the tariffs and the inflation that's
going to cause around the world, will that upset the
apple cart?
Speaker 6 (27:45):
Yeah, well, it's definitely going to have an effect so
we think that the tariffs are inflationary in the United
States because they're increasing the prices of all the imported goods,
but probably disinflationary to some extent for other countries around
the world because they won't be able to sell that
product into the United States or not as easily as
(28:07):
they previously could, and therefore they're probably going to discount
goods and dump them into other markets. So that might
mean that we get some cheap product being dumped into
the New Zealand market. In the short term. That's probably
short term disinflationary, So there's different effects in different countries
over the long run. Kind of what's happening is we're
(28:29):
emphasizing production inside national borders rather than emphasizing international efficiency
comparative advantage. Globalization is maybe seeing the tide go out
a little bit, and over the longer run that's probably
bad news for the supply side of the economy and
points to structurally higher inflation in the future.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Being pecton from Ravobank, thanks for your time today on
the country.
Speaker 6 (28:54):
Cheers, Damie, appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
Thank you, Ben. It is seventeen away from you are
with the country where we try to do our best
to keep you informed and maybe entertained, and not everyone
would buy into that. In fact, on Wednesday afternoons got
a fess up here, I do a runner, So I
dropped the mic at like twelve fifty seven and I'm
(29:17):
out of here because I play golf with my wagler
mates up at the Otago Golf Club. And there I
was chopping away yesterday afternoon. And I'm always checking my
emails as I'm going around because I'm supposedly meant to
be at work. I haven't told you this one, Michelle,
so this will become as a surprise to you as well.
I get this email from a guy by the name
of Bill. I won't tell you Bill's second name. I'm
(29:39):
not going to name and Shaman because everyone's entitled to
their opinion. It was titled Dickhead Central and that immediately
caught my attention, and then Bill wrote to me, if
you look at the met surface or windy dot com.
Remember this was sent after yesterday's show, you will see
that there is no rain forecast in Hamilton for today
and little for tomorrow. That was my reference to the
(30:00):
atmospheric river that we thought may have affected that one
day International on Hamilton, it didn't obviously, and then Bill
went on to say, and in telling luxon chrystalh Luckxen,
obviously the Prime Minister to school yourself up on Wall,
you are showing just what to see you next Thursday.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
You are.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Bill, I think that, I think the acronyms see you
next Tuesday. But Bill's gone with see you next Thursday.
And I thought, no, Bill, I'm not putting up with that.
So he got a terse reply, apologies for swearing back
at you, Bill, but seriously, there's nothing wrong with putting
the Prime minister right. He was singing the praises of
(30:44):
the primary sector on yesterday show, beef, meat, Kiwi fruit,
everything's going well. But Wall is not going well. It's
had a bit of a false dorm and now it's
dropped back down again. So I'm just informing the Minister
as someone who follows the market that Wall's not that
flash strong while I'm talking about here, And honestly, as
(31:06):
I said to Bill in my terse reply, just change
stations or channels if you don't like it. Everyone's entitled
to their opinion. There are people on the radio I
don't like either, Bill, But do you know what I do.
I don't listen to them, so go somewhere else. Up
next to our Australian correspondent, Chris Russell. He's our guy
(31:34):
across the Dutch. His name is Chris Russell, long standing
Australian farming correspondent.
Speaker 4 (31:39):
Chris.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
What do you make of Liberation Day? Did you ass
he's get off lightly or were you being torn one
by Trump? I see he's called you out for not
taking any American beef. I didn't think you needed any.
Speaker 8 (31:52):
Well, we definitely don't need any, of course, but that's
not a reason though. I mean, the American farmers would
claim they could do their beef as well well, but
in fact they can't over there, particularly grinding beef from Australia.
There's no way that they have enough grinding bee for
their demand for hamburger meat. Having said that, it is
a tit for tat thing. And we've always had biosecurity arrangements,
(32:16):
not just in the US but from everywhere by bringing
raw meat into Australia fearing things like mad cow disease,
bovine tuberculosis. We've now got this new av and eighth
five N one flu, which is a big story here
at the moment, because that you know, that could be
our next COVID nineteen type pandemic. So all of all
(32:37):
of those reasons, we don't allow raw meat into Australia. Now,
both the opposition leader and the Prime Minister, of course
you're in election mode at the moment, have both said
they will, under no circumstances compromise that for America or
for anybody else, So that is going to be a given.
At one stage during Trump's speech this morning, I was
(32:57):
feared that he was going to ban our beef all together,
because he talked about reciprocation and then he talked about
the fact that we banned theirs, and from midnight, you
know we're going to do the same. I don't blame them,
I think is the word he said, but we're going
to be the same. But in fact there's no sign
of that at this stage. So we're looking at a
ten percent tariff, which seems to be the baseline on
(33:17):
all countries. I've kind of based that on the fact
that we pay they have to pay ten GST on
all goods when they come in, like we do on
anything else here. So I was thinking, well, on that basis,
New Zealand's got off pretty lately because their GST is
five percent higher than ours. But maybe it's not that.
Maybe it's just the fact that he wants a baseline
tariff FRAIL to limit imports. And our current beef business
(33:42):
is worth about three point three billion dollars last year
to us in Australia. It would be certainly a big
loss if we suddenly had that completely banned. But given
their demand for our grinding beef's almost insatiable, I don't
see the ten percent having much making much difference to
the amount of that that's being because they just don't
have the beef over there to replace what they would
(34:04):
buy from US, even ten percent.
Speaker 6 (34:06):
Dierra jomin Well.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
Ultimately the American consumer is going to pay the final price.
Speaker 8 (34:10):
Chris Well, exactly right. And that's always been our argument
that if you're sort of self destructing if you start
putting high taxes on stuff that you don't have in America.
But the beef farmers and particularly the lamb farmers, and
remember Australia and New Zealand really created their lamb market
over there. When I lived in America in the seventies,
you couldn't buy lamb you know, everyone just at beef,
(34:32):
and the ranchers all hated sheep, of course, and there
was still the old Wild West of philosophy about sheep.
But nowadays it's a lot of lamb is consumed. And
of course they've always grizzled that they can't produce the
lamb or the beef as cheaply as we can, partly
because in the north they have such a harsh winter
(34:53):
they have to house all their animals and all their feedlots,
whereas we're grazing all year round scenario. So I they
are going to shoot themselves the foot, and I think
they recognize that. And there's no doubt that the big
push has been against imported manufacturing goods, and he wants
to recreate all those little businesses all around America. And
that's what he said he would do it, that's what
he's done, that's what got him elected. So I'm not
(35:15):
surprised that he's done it. And it'll be a watch
and see. But I think our big one is agriculture.
I think probably it's even slightly better than we expect that.
I think most people were thinking we might get twenty
percent and we've been hit with ten percent, Jomie.
Speaker 2 (35:32):
We've got to count our blessings. Chris Russell. Shocking numbers
stock loss numbers coming out of that Southwest Queensland flood.
Speaker 8 (35:41):
Yes, Look, the big shock here is the speed with
which this flood came in. They had eighteen months worth
of rain in forty eight hours. That's a lot of rain.
It's very flat country out there, it has nowhere to
drain to very quickly, and this, of course flood will
stick around as they always do out there, for six
eight weeks. There's no chance that Jill and I are
(36:03):
going to be able to get ourselves in our caravan
up in the southern Queensland anytime soon, which we normally
head off in the middle of the year. Somewhere up there,
they're talking early estimates around one hundred and five thousand
head of animal cattle and sheep lost, which is a lot.
In twenty nineteen, you might remember up in Northern Queensland
we lost over six hundred thousand head with flash floods
(36:25):
that happened up there. But this has been a lot
of water. And the big criticism here, Jamie, has been
that there is and I didn't know this, no weather
red at radar and insufficient river gauges between Alice Springs
and Southwest Queensland, so they had no warning of the
speed with which these rivers were riding rising or the
speed with which the rain was actually coming over from
(36:48):
the sidelines in Western Australia, and they've been coming across
Australia the remnants of those and so because they had
no radar, all they could do was send helicopters up
and down the rivers sort of measuring the depths. You know,
we a plumbob but you know by just looking over
the side and saying, oh, that's getting deeper quickly, which
is so primitive in our modern day and age. So
there's been a massive call and both parties have reciprocated,
(37:12):
saying they end to spend more money on more radar
weather radar. But there's two eight now they've had their reign.
They're all flooded. These people are all out of their
house and it's absolutely devastating. Some of them lost every
animal on their property. It's going to take years for
them to get all that back again. And I think
we've been caught totally unawares by this, Jamie. When I
(37:32):
spoke to you last week, I had no idea this
was I thought it was just another reign of it,
and now we're looking at the worst flood well probably ever,
certainly since nineteen seventy four.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
Okay, Chris Russell, thanks for your time. Maybe we got
off lightly with the tenth percent tariff. Happy Liberation Day.
Speaker 8 (37:50):
Yeah, absolutely, say to year, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (37:55):
People dance and me.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
Okay, wrapping the Country're going to wrap it with wee
bitty of feedback, Jamie. Ten percent may be better than
most other countries, but if most other countries are worse
off by large amounts, they won't have any spear cash
to buy our keyw fruit, wine, dairy, lamb, timber and beef.
Trump is doing his best to if up the whole world,
including the USA. Says Patrick, We'll see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:20):
Remember if I catch all the latest from the land.
It's The Country Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent,
you're specialist in John Deere construction equipment.
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckaye thanks to Brent the starkest of
the leading agriculture brands.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Gooday, New Zealand and welcome to the Country. I'm Jamie mackay.
A party in the USA. Liberation Day, Dana about that,
We're going to get some commentary today on Trump's Tariff's
no time to waste. Let's welcome on to the show
the Deputy Prime Minister Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peter's Liberation
Day ten percent tariff. It could have been worse, Winston.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Look, it's a tremendous result. They were talking about twenty percent,
but they gave us eight ten percent, the lowest of
all the countries. So to speak. It is a tremendous
outcome for the next wars because if they see the
advantage they've got at that low rate of ten percent,
then going forward to a very positive outcome. It couldn't
(01:17):
have done better. We tried well.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Ten percents the minimum tariff applied to any country around
the world. But Trump claims that there's a twenty percent
tariff on US coults coming into New Zealand. That's not true.
Is he counting GST and on that.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Well, there is a number of theories about whether he
is writer riding at twenty percent. It could be the
different from the last measured year of our experts versus theirs,
so that would be twenty percent exactly. So when they
arrived at that calculation mistakenly doesn't matter. We still got
ten percent, the lowest of all the countries in this
(01:57):
imposition or tariff ofm abroad. It's far better than what
some of our farmers thought twenty five percent plus, So
it's good news.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Okay. They are our second biggest trading partner nine billion,
twelve percent of our exports by value, so ten percent
of nine billions what nine hundred million? Yeah, it's going
to hurt, but I guess it's going to be worse.
Could these tariffs offer us? Offer us opportunities in other markets?
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Tatically? But it also offers opportunities in the American market
because some comes we are competing with are being hit
with a much higher tariff. So it makes our competitiveness
better and not worse.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
What's it going to do to the Chinese economy? For instance?
A thirty four percent tariff?
Speaker 4 (02:40):
There?
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Surely that is going to affect the state of the
Chinese economy, who are our biggest trading partner.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Yes, well, you haven't got the Chinese quirements on this program.
You've got me forty Zeeland. You've got to Chinese for
minutes to long.
Speaker 5 (02:55):
You that.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Okay, So that's the end of that commentary on that one.
Who do you reckon ultimately bears the costs of these tariffs?
Is it US as an exporter or is it ultimately
the American consumer? They can't get enough of our grinding beef.
Ditto for Australia hamburgers are going to cost more than
the United States.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
Yeah, that's the very essence of the ideological argument that's
going on here and what the American administration is saying.
This is going to be great for the American worker
because they're going to be far more competitive against markets
where the exporting cars they were being hit by six
ninety percent plus and was very damaging. They were importing
(03:38):
cars from these other countries with a very low tariff
while being slammed in the country that they were trying
to export their home product to my cars another product.
But that's for the Americans to work out. Our job,
as I said was a key bour council, key carm
wait till the dust settles in the dust settle settled
in the best possible place we would have expected. The
money got a dance and made that chart. And many
(04:00):
of us were cheering from the rappists because we knew
we've got our message away, that we'd be imposed at
the very low from ten percent. Nobody's done better than that.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Are you being a bit timid on this one? Anthony
Albansi across the Tasman has come out and said, this
is not the act of a friend. Are we cowering
to the US?
Speaker 3 (04:21):
No, not going to the US, and we're not actually
speaking to other countries. They can handle their foreign affairs
and they're messaging all by themselves. Our job is to
look at the five zero point five million New Zealands
and make sure we get the best gossil outcome. And
today we are responsible. They after all our masters they
are and the illners that want the best possible outcome,
and we have secured that.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Let's just finish on what you've been up to in
the past week. You've been on the front foot, you've
charged down the wicket. When it comes to the greens.
It's been quite good sporting, quite a good sporting spectacle.
To be perfectly honest, you're not sparing the Rod, and
no pun intended around the late Rod Ronald and the
late Jeannette that simons you speak highly of them, you
(05:04):
don't speak highly of the current lot. I don't blame you.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
There are just a massive deceitful mess that came into
this palm on the basis of the environment. But they're
spent all their time with ominous policies, saying out in
rageous things that the police force are not required, that
the police force are far more dangerous in the gangs
one after the other that made these stupid comments, and
then they're trying to defend in the MPEd well indepensible.
(05:30):
Please explain to us by fifty two plus for taking
down what do they mean and what was the effect
of them in a country that has first wall halls,
which has policies to defend the rights of tulam. This
person was screaming out for purity blockers and told them
to get operations for sexual transfers on demand. This is
(05:52):
out major stuff and we are calling them to account.
But be more importantly, I asked to manastream media. Why
haven't you challenged them when you've counted and you've tell
us other member's apartment, particularly government parties, every chance you get.
And here you've been given an elector icing of a
pence you're doing nothing about it.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Did you have any idea at all what bussy or
bussy meant before this Benjamin Doyle stuff all blew.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Up at the moment I started seeing the posts and
we've got some advice because it was not innocent, but innocent,
and that's what I want the illness to know, particularly
Green voters. And then of course I had the front
of me just try and say that the Rainbow community
was all on their side and the Rainbow community in
(06:41):
Yet thousands are coming out now saying no, no. Winston
Banns is right to Marasi's questions and more importantly, they're
resigning on mass from the Green Party as we speak.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Mind you are the Green Party the biggest villains in Parliament.
What does that belong to to party? Mari Roweri and
Debbie they're just sumbing their nose basically. But the Privileges Committee,
I note that Judith Collins has quite literally been biting
a tongue off to be diplomatic on this one. But
they need the book thrown at them, don't they.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Well, I imagine your rugul league player, the NURL committee says,
you've been offensive. We want to see you. We want
to have an investigation that they're hanging played on the
padic and you told them to nap off. How long
would you be last in the playing skill? It goes
for all types of communities, all types of sports. We
all accepted that ruling when we came department, except in
(07:32):
this group decide no, No, they're above any criticism, they're
above being questioned. They're going to set all rules all
by themselves. And there's no one in the Mayal maren
will a belief that's a teque owner or the law,
and no one in the community who's halfway reasonable thinks
of what they're doing as right. So we're giving them
one more chance to turn up on the twenty third
(07:53):
of April and say don't. Then we'll see what the
conferences are.
Speaker 4 (07:57):
Now.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
I know you won't want to talk about this, but
next Fridays of very special day for you, you're going
to be out of the country. I wanted you to
be on the country our show next Friday, because you're
blowing out eighty candles, can you point this, Well, that's
a pretty good innings, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
I know.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
My point is this. My researches tell me that you're
the eighth longest serving politician in New Zealand history at
thirty seven years and thirty days of service. You started
way back in May nineteen seventy seven. Apparently the record
Winston is forty years and one hundred and ninety three days. Now,
I figure if you stay for another term, you're going
(08:36):
to break that record.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
Well, I never ever thought i'd be doing this job
when I started out in the politics. But you know,
maybe I was younger and experience and I thought I'd
got an apartment, I'll change things. But because of certain influences,
things to take a long time. It's been a working
project and when when it's follow it still will not
be finished. But do you hope that you led a
big enough framework down for others to do it in
(09:01):
the way that I've tried to follow how they've made
leaders in the past, many of whom i'vemed from other
political pays. I don't know why by so surprised, because Frankly,
I saw a man just announce the whole tariffhrasing for
the world just a few hours ago. And he's my age,
Warren Buffet, still bouncing around and still being consulted. And
(09:22):
as to how you run the fund management schemes, my
friend Mahatir, who came back when he's ninety three to
be the Prime Minister of Malaysia is almost one hundred
and he's still giving advice. So lets me I put it,
Let's speak grateful that you had the fortune that others
did not have and who are did by now it's
(09:43):
just a lucky day. So having a celebration because he survived.
It's not mine what I'm about.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Well, mcjag is still going strong and he's your age
as well.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
People say to me, you've got a great song. Start
me up, that's what we're doing.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Okay, one more before I go. People who know that
I talk to you on a regular basis say what
does Winston bother at his age? And I know you
won't like that commentary, but I say to them, I say,
politics is like your version of golf. I think it's
your hobby. Am I right in saying that?
Speaker 6 (10:13):
No?
Speaker 3 (10:14):
You tell those people that around this country. The moment
as ippo, it's been kept going by many people over
sixty five who do all sorts of blunt you with.
If they were to stop, our society would collapse tomorrow.
So their job is when you see some old guy
or some old lady down there doing full day's work
and keeping entry going, and mindases voluntarily go up and
(10:34):
to thank them because it's important.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Winston Peters, thank you very much for your time. Good
luck next Friday, and don't get breathless blowing out those
eighty candles, thank you too. All Right, there we go,
Winston Peter's Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Affairs Minister, his take
on Liberation Day, the Trump tariffs. We're going to get
(10:59):
some experts commentary before the end of the hour. We're
going to head to Australia to catch up with being
picked in. He's Rabobank's senior strategist. That's a flash word
for chief economists, so we'll get his take on that one.
And I'm also going to ask him. We've not only
got Winston's birthday to look forward to next Friday. Next Wednesday,
(11:21):
April the ninth, we have an OCR announcement. What will
Trump's tariff and then the inflation it's likely to cause
around the world or is it going to do for
interest rates around the world. It's an interesting question. Our
Ossie correspondent is Chris Russell. We'll get his take on
it from an Assie point of view. Why did Trump
(11:43):
call out the Australian beef. We'll tell you all about that.
But up next it is the National President of Federated Farmers,
Tasman dairy farmer Wayne Langford. I'm going to try and
find out about the Atmospheric River and whether it's at
the Tasman region. And just yet you're with the country
that's rock.
Speaker 7 (12:04):
You gotta be from out of town.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
One of my girls on AM is the Monestly not
a national party because.
Speaker 8 (12:14):
I never got the.
Speaker 7 (12:15):
Man dog the US.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Welcome back to the country twenty two after twelve Wine Length.
That is the National President of Federated Farmers. He is
also a Tasman dairy farm We're going to talk about
the Atmospheric River and just a tick, Wayne, But I
know you didn't hear Winston Peters who kicked off the show.
Sorry for dumping you to first drop on the show today.
(12:56):
But what do you make of the Trump TERRFF announcement.
Speaker 9 (13:00):
Yeah, no, you're right. The atmosphere river sense we've taken
out the country in my house. I don't know what's happened,
but we never sought that out. But certainly, certainly some
challenges are going forward. That's it's to be clear, and
there'll be there'll be plenty to be worked through, as
will be happening around probably every country around the world
at the moment. I mean, where one country shuts down,
(13:22):
hopefully another will open and there there'll be a bit
of a few changes there. But but I mean early days,
there's a lot of lots work through before we get
too worried. I think just at the stage.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Well, Winston's notoriously if I if I'm using that word
correctly pro American, he's almost painting this is a great
victory ten percents as.
Speaker 9 (13:41):
Low as it goes, well, he can call it that.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 9 (13:45):
Yeah, we'll see how the farmers that they're feel it
in their back pocket call it or what it ultimately
means to them. So it'll be it will be interesting
to see where we where we end up. You know,
I'm not an expert trade commentator, so I haven't gone
into it heavily to rather waiting to sit back and
truly reflect on what it will mean and what it
exactly will mean for our farmers on the ground.
Speaker 2 (14:07):
How is the atmospheric river, because I'm looking at the
met Service forecast for Marlborough and Nelson rain with heavy
falls clearing to find tomorrow afternoon if you had any
of those heavy falls yet, Wayne, Yeah, we're apped.
Speaker 9 (14:21):
About one hundred and thirty millimeters, which for Golden Bay
is a bit of a sunshower. I know it's not
none a part of the country, but it's just getting
started here now. The heavy rain. It's about fifteen mili
an hour coming into the moment and it's just starting
to fly across the farm. So we're bending down for
the next twelve hours to be pretty heavy and salt.
But hopefully if it behaves itself and remains pretty constant,
(14:43):
it should just flow on straight on out to see.
But let's cross our fingers and hope that's case.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
How dry were you getting well?
Speaker 9 (14:52):
The Tasman regim was declared and to drought, but that
was mainly through the Nelson down through Merchison type area
there on now side of the attack to help on
the Golden Bay side. Yes, we would certainly starting to
dry out in a kind of into our standard summer
dry or a bit past that. So this reign is
really welcome for us and will certainly help set us
that for winter.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
Yeah, and it looks like it's going to head up
country and hopefully sort out some of the dry regions
in the North Island as well. What a Federated Farmer's
been up to? I know that was it Monday Show. Yeah,
we spoke to Richard McIntyre, banking spokesperson. It seems like
the feeds have had a bit of a wing a win,
should I say with the banking inquiry.
Speaker 9 (15:32):
Well, I think we're still getting there, right, I think.
I think when we first dug into that, we wondered
what we were getting into, and it's starting to really
open up now and show that there's a lot more
going on than what we first thought. So it's great
that the government taking notice that they're taking action hopefully
and it should end up in a really good result
(15:52):
for farmers. I think, as Richard said, if it ends
up with the average farmer getting forty four thousand dollars
a year, then certainly No, will be complaining about paying
their feeds membership every year.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
No. I think you're doing a good job, but it
seems bizarre that the banks have to hold enough capital
for a one and two hundred year financial events.
Speaker 9 (16:13):
That's correct that you've under that right there. We don't
need to probably say anymore.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Okay. Also you've submitted about GMO. Gee, that's a can
of worms used today. What are the feeds saying on that?
Speaker 9 (16:27):
Yeah? Our National Council met in November to form our
position on that, and we certainly took a lot of
feedback from farmacies. I've had my phone ringing and emails
coming through our submission yesterday. While we voted in favor
of the bill, it was really clear that we.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Voted for that.
Speaker 9 (16:44):
We'll submitted sorry on a farmer's right to choose, and
that's really important because that not only protects the farmers
that well UCM own and want to get into that space,
but also those that don't. How do we make sure
that we look after the farmers that are organic or
simply are not one to use GMO while we look
at these new technologies that we're bringing in. So it
(17:06):
was an interesting discussion ten minutes twitch turned into I
think sixteen or seventeen minutes in front of the Select
Committee with some really challenging questions. So you know, I
think this one's far from done and there's still plenty
of work to work through to see where we end
up with it all.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
At the end of the day, this GMO debate final
question or comment is a bit of a double edged
sword for New Zealand.
Speaker 9 (17:29):
It is, and that's the question, how do we do
it safely? How do we manage the risk? How what
effect will have on our markets? And I think there's
a few of the questions that are not only in
Select Committee, but ultimately the Minister is still asking. As
you know, Ifeeds have campaigned on the questions to be asked,
well can we use it? Is it time to have
(17:50):
a look at using it? And can we use it?
And so that's the process that we're working through now.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
Now.
Speaker 9 (17:57):
As I mentioned, I've heard from both sides of the fence.
Farmers that are they came to get into it and
see what it could couldn't tell, and also those that
are really concerned about their businesses and their businesses that
are relying on being GMO free and what that'll mean
for them and how ultimately, how do we protect them.
So we feel like we're strongly representing both of those
cases when we say we're protecting the farmer's right to test.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
Wayne Langford, National President of Federated Farmers, thanks for your time.
Speaker 9 (18:23):
Yeah, thanks Jammin.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
Yet and as twenty eight after twelve, we're going to
take a break on the other side of it, Michelle
with the latest in rural news. We'll have a look
at sports news as well. Are going to get some
expert commentary on Trump's tariff announcement. It's the big story
of today from being picked in these Rabobanks senior strategists
(18:45):
based out of Sydney, and also next week not only
Winston's birthday, but an I see our announcement from the
Reserve Bank, what's going to happen to interestrates? Chris Russell's
our assie correspondent to wrap the country today as well.
Speaker 4 (19:07):
Time ago.
Speaker 7 (19:09):
I can still remember how that music used to make
me smile, and I.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Knew, if I had my chance, that.
Speaker 8 (19:21):
I could make those people dance.
Speaker 4 (19:24):
And maybe they'd be happy.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
For a while.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
But February made me shiver with every paper chee I
could listen to Don McClain for the rest of the hour.
But we've got people to talk to, places to go to,
in fact, a couple of visits to Australia. We're going
to get Ben Pickton, Chief Economists for Rabobankers thoughts on
Liberation Day. But before we do that, here's Michelle with
(19:52):
the latest and rural news.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
The country's world news with cop Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on Lawnlow. Visit Steelford dot co dot Nz for
your local Stoggist.
Speaker 5 (20:03):
And another regional Supreme winner was announced and the Balance
Farm Environment Towards last night to Peterson of brown Or
Farm in Raglan was crowned the Regional Supreme Winner of
the Wykettle region last night. The next Regional awards is
today in Tartanaki, with a Tago in Southland having near
turn next week. And of course the Great Big Grand
Finale is going to be I think in June and Wellington.
(20:25):
So all those regional winners get to go on the
thing with the big trophy, don't they.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
Yes, they do. Indeed always Wellington they hold it at
the beehive. It's great, Oh that fantastic. Yeah, it will
be right anything else. That is all for me.
Speaker 5 (20:37):
You go sport there for you.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Oh yeah, I haven't even read it. I wonder what's
happening in sport sport with AFCO.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Visit them online at a FCO dot co dot nz.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
We've been too busy worrying about Liberation Day. Okay, here's sport.
Former Wallaby Israel Fallal's hopes of playing for an ANZAC
side against the Lions in July have been scuppered Rugby
Australia boss Phil war who possibly played with Israel. Philow,
he's a former Wallaby, says players like Filale who have
switched international allegiance ineligible and this is sad news. Courtney
(21:12):
Duncan's unsure whether she will resume her motocross career as
she deals with the serious heart issue. And of course
Courtney Duncan's from just up the road from us in Dunedin,
Palmerston or up that way, and she's not only a
world champion motocross rider, but she's a wonderfully bubbly and
vivacious and nice human being.
Speaker 5 (21:34):
And actually, Jamie, back when I used to do motocross,
she was just a tiny little dot on a wee bike.
So it's crazy to see her.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
It's not bad name dropping, Michelle. Good work. Did you
beat her?
Speaker 5 (21:44):
She got to raise her and to be honest, I
know I definitely would not have beaten her even then.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Yeah, she's a champion. Good luck, Courtney, go well up.
Next we're heading to Australia. Ben picton his take on
Liberation Day.
Speaker 4 (21:56):
But that's not hard use when it is Liberation Day.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Let's get some commentary on Trump's tariffs. Our expert in
the field, or one of them is being picked and
he's a senior strata just effectively. The chief economist for
Rabobank based out of Sydney, Albow. Your Prime Minister Anthony
Albanisi said it was not the act of a friend,
but being picked in that ten percent? Did Australia and
(22:37):
New Zealand get off lightly?
Speaker 6 (22:40):
Jamie, Yeah, I think it's fair to say that Australia
and New Zealand have come out comparatively well in this
round of reciprocal tariffs. So if we look through the lift,
some of the numbers applied to other countries that are
quite a bit higher than the ten percent that New
Zealand and Australia are facing for Cambodia at forty nine percent,
(23:01):
Sri Lanka at forty four, Bangledes thirty seven, China thirty four,
Indonesia thirty two. So ten percent looks okay in the context.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
Yeah, not to mention Japan at twenty four percent, India
twenty six, the EU at twenty Yet the UK ben
picked and got away with ten percent like US.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 6 (23:23):
So it's interesting looking not just at the tariffs that
the US is imposing on other countries, but also at
the numbers that the US calculated as the equivalent tariff
rate that the United States faces when exporting into these
other markets. And something that stuck out to me is
that they face trade barriers of about ten percent tariff
(23:46):
equivalent for Australia, but for New Zealand they calculate that
figure at about twenty percent. So maybe if there's another
shoe to drop in the trade war at some point,
New Zealand might be a little bit more exposed than
what Australia.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
Stephen Jacoby, a trade expert here in New Zealand. I'm
sure you're well aware of him. He said, unjustified, painful,
but at a lower level of pain than expected, and
as I said Albanizi, your guys said, not the act
of a friend. We send nine billion dollars worth of
goods to the US. They're our second biggest trading partner,
twelve percent of exports by value. Who ultimately bears the
(24:25):
cost of this Is it US as the exporter or
the Americans as the end consumer.
Speaker 6 (24:31):
Yeah, so there's going to be a bit of a
mix between the two, but ultimately the end consumer will
pay more of the cost of the tariffs than what
the exporting nations will. So what we would expect to
see is slightly lower prices for some of the things
that we're exporting to the United States. And beef really
sticks out as the number one export for both New
Zealand and Australia going to the USA. But the USA
(24:56):
can't supply its own consumption needs with beef produced inside
the USA. So what's going to happen in the short
term at least is higher prices for US consumers. So
most of the cost of these tasks will actually be
born by US citizens.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
Why did Trump call out Australian beef in particular, because
our Australian correspondent, Chris Russell is coming up on the show.
Shortly texted me earlier this morning and said, maybe Australia
is a bit guilty of using biosecurity as a bit
of a shield and the Americans are none too happy
about it.
Speaker 6 (25:31):
Yeah, So this is something that the USA has been
complaining about for years and years that Australia imposes non
tariff barriers through our biosecurity measures. So we restricts fresh food,
particularly from coming into the Australian market. So we don't
allow us beef, we don't allow apples and pears, we
(25:54):
don't allow fresh pork products, and we don't allow poultry
products either because of biosecurity reasons. But there are questions
around the validity of some of the biosecurity concerns that
have been raised by the United States Trade representative over
many years. They haven't been happy about it. So there
(26:16):
is a little bit of a sense on the American
side that some of these biosecurity laws are sort of
shadow tariffs that have been imposed by Australia.
Speaker 2 (26:26):
Wall Street obviously not trading at the moment it's evening
or nighttime in the US. The Australian and New Zealand
share markets didn't like it. I think Wall Street futures
trading was down two percent. It looks like the world
economy doesn't like this at all.
Speaker 6 (26:42):
Yeah, well that's the financial economy. So Donald Trump has
been pretty clear that he's putting these in place for
US manufacturers and farmers, not the US bankers and hedge funds.
So that's probably not the constituency that he's trying to
keep happy with these sorts of measures. We've had it
(27:03):
very very good for about forty years through increased trade
liberalization and financialization in the financial markets, and the shoe
might be on the other foot at the moment.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
So being picked in with US senior stratages for Rabobank
out of Sydney ben ocr next Wednesday, what are you picking?
Speaker 6 (27:21):
Yeah, well, we think the IRBNZ is going to cut again,
but the cut won't be as big as what we've
had recently. So we're expecting point two five percentage points
next week, and we think we'll get one more of
those in May as well.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
What about Trump with the tariffs and the inflation that's
going to cause around the world, will that upset the
apple cart?
Speaker 6 (27:45):
Yeah, well, it's definitely going to have an effect so
we think that the tariffs are inflationary in the United
States because they're increasing the prices of all the imported goods,
but probably disinflationary to some extent for other countries around
the world because they won't be able to sell that
product into the United States or not as easily as
(28:07):
they previously could, and therefore they're probably going to discount
goods and dump them into other markets. So that might
mean that we get some cheap product being dumped into
the New Zealand market. In the short term. That's probably
short term disinflationary, So there's different effects in different countries
over the long run. Kind of what's happening is we're
(28:29):
emphasizing production inside national borders rather than emphasizing international efficiency
comparative advantage. Globalization is maybe seeing the tide go out
a little bit, and over the longer run that's probably
bad news for the supply side of the economy and
points to structurally higher inflation in the future.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Being pecton from Ravobank, thanks for your time today on
the country.
Speaker 6 (28:54):
Cheers, Damie, appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
Thank you, Ben. It is seventeen away from you are
with the country where we try to do our best
to keep you informed and maybe entertained, and not everyone
would buy into that. In fact, on Wednesday afternoons got
a fess up here, I do a runner, So I
dropped the mic at like twelve fifty seven and I'm
(29:17):
out of here because I play golf with my wagler
mates up at the Otago Golf Club. And there I
was chopping away yesterday afternoon. And I'm always checking my
emails as I'm going around because I'm supposedly meant to
be at work. I haven't told you this one, Michelle,
so this will become as a surprise to you as well.
I get this email from a guy by the name
of Bill. I won't tell you Bill's second name. I'm
(29:39):
not going to name and Shaman because everyone's entitled to
their opinion. It was titled Dickhead Central and that immediately
caught my attention, and then Bill wrote to me, if
you look at the met surface or windy dot com.
Remember this was sent after yesterday's show, you will see
that there is no rain forecast in Hamilton for today
and little for tomorrow. That was my reference to the
(30:00):
atmospheric river that we thought may have affected that one
day International on Hamilton, it didn't obviously, and then Bill
went on to say, and in telling luxon chrystalh Luckxen,
obviously the Prime Minister to school yourself up on Wall,
you are showing just what to see you next Thursday.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
You are.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Bill, I think that, I think the acronyms see you
next Tuesday. But Bill's gone with see you next Thursday.
And I thought, no, Bill, I'm not putting up with that.
So he got a terse reply, apologies for swearing back
at you, Bill, but seriously, there's nothing wrong with putting
the Prime minister right. He was singing the praises of
(30:44):
the primary sector on yesterday show, beef, meat, Kiwi fruit,
everything's going well. But Wall is not going well. It's
had a bit of a false dorm and now it's
dropped back down again. So I'm just informing the Minister
as someone who follows the market that Wall's not that
flash strong while I'm talking about here, And honestly, as
(31:06):
I said to Bill in my terse reply, just change
stations or channels if you don't like it. Everyone's entitled
to their opinion. There are people on the radio I
don't like either, Bill, But do you know what I do.
I don't listen to them, so go somewhere else. Up
next to our Australian correspondent, Chris Russell. He's our guy
(31:34):
across the Dutch. His name is Chris Russell, long standing
Australian farming correspondent.
Speaker 4 (31:39):
Chris.
Speaker 2 (31:40):
What do you make of Liberation Day? Did you ass
he's get off lightly or were you being torn one
by Trump? I see he's called you out for not
taking any American beef. I didn't think you needed any.
Speaker 8 (31:52):
Well, we definitely don't need any, of course, but that's
not a reason though. I mean, the American farmers would
claim they could do their beef as well well, but
in fact they can't over there, particularly grinding beef from Australia.
There's no way that they have enough grinding bee for
their demand for hamburger meat. Having said that, it is
a tit for tat thing. And we've always had biosecurity arrangements,
(32:16):
not just in the US but from everywhere by bringing
raw meat into Australia fearing things like mad cow disease,
bovine tuberculosis. We've now got this new av and eighth
five N one flu, which is a big story here
at the moment, because that you know, that could be
our next COVID nineteen type pandemic. So all of all
(32:37):
of those reasons, we don't allow raw meat into Australia. Now,
both the opposition leader and the Prime Minister, of course
you're in election mode at the moment, have both said
they will, under no circumstances compromise that for America or
for anybody else, So that is going to be a given.
At one stage during Trump's speech this morning, I was
(32:57):
feared that he was going to ban our beef all together,
because he talked about reciprocation and then he talked about
the fact that we banned theirs, and from midnight, you
know we're going to do the same. I don't blame them,
I think is the word he said, but we're going
to be the same. But in fact there's no sign
of that at this stage. So we're looking at a
ten percent tariff, which seems to be the baseline on
(33:17):
all countries. I've kind of based that on the fact
that we pay they have to pay ten GST on
all goods when they come in, like we do on
anything else here. So I was thinking, well, on that basis,
New Zealand's got off pretty lately because their GST is
five percent higher than ours. But maybe it's not that.
Maybe it's just the fact that he wants a baseline
tariff FRAIL to limit imports. And our current beef business
(33:42):
is worth about three point three billion dollars last year
to us in Australia. It would be certainly a big
loss if we suddenly had that completely banned. But given
their demand for our grinding beef's almost insatiable, I don't
see the ten percent having much making much difference to
the amount of that that's being because they just don't
have the beef over there to replace what they would
(34:04):
buy from US, even ten percent.
Speaker 6 (34:06):
Dierra jomin Well.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
Ultimately the American consumer is going to pay the final price.
Speaker 8 (34:10):
Chris Well, exactly right. And that's always been our argument
that if you're sort of self destructing if you start
putting high taxes on stuff that you don't have in America.
But the beef farmers and particularly the lamb farmers, and
remember Australia and New Zealand really created their lamb market
over there. When I lived in America in the seventies,
you couldn't buy lamb you know, everyone just at beef,
(34:32):
and the ranchers all hated sheep, of course, and there
was still the old Wild West of philosophy about sheep.
But nowadays it's a lot of lamb is consumed. And
of course they've always grizzled that they can't produce the
lamb or the beef as cheaply as we can, partly
because in the north they have such a harsh winter
(34:53):
they have to house all their animals and all their feedlots,
whereas we're grazing all year round scenario. So I they
are going to shoot themselves the foot, and I think
they recognize that. And there's no doubt that the big
push has been against imported manufacturing goods, and he wants
to recreate all those little businesses all around America. And
that's what he said he would do it, that's what
he's done, that's what got him elected. So I'm not
(35:15):
surprised that he's done it. And it'll be a watch
and see. But I think our big one is agriculture.
I think probably it's even slightly better than we expect that.
I think most people were thinking we might get twenty
percent and we've been hit with ten percent, Jomie.
Speaker 2 (35:32):
We've got to count our blessings. Chris Russell. Shocking numbers
stock loss numbers coming out of that Southwest Queensland flood.
Speaker 8 (35:41):
Yes, Look, the big shock here is the speed with
which this flood came in. They had eighteen months worth
of rain in forty eight hours. That's a lot of rain.
It's very flat country out there, it has nowhere to
drain to very quickly, and this, of course flood will
stick around as they always do out there, for six
eight weeks. There's no chance that Jill and I are
(36:03):
going to be able to get ourselves in our caravan
up in the southern Queensland anytime soon, which we normally
head off in the middle of the year. Somewhere up there,
they're talking early estimates around one hundred and five thousand
head of animal cattle and sheep lost, which is a lot.
In twenty nineteen, you might remember up in Northern Queensland
we lost over six hundred thousand head with flash floods
(36:25):
that happened up there. But this has been a lot
of water. And the big criticism here, Jamie, has been
that there is and I didn't know this, no weather
red at radar and insufficient river gauges between Alice Springs
and Southwest Queensland, so they had no warning of the
speed with which these rivers were riding rising or the
speed with which the rain was actually coming over from
(36:48):
the sidelines in Western Australia, and they've been coming across
Australia the remnants of those and so because they had
no radar, all they could do was send helicopters up
and down the rivers sort of measuring the depths. You know,
we a plumbob but you know by just looking over
the side and saying, oh, that's getting deeper quickly, which
is so primitive in our modern day and age. So
there's been a massive call and both parties have reciprocated,
(37:12):
saying they end to spend more money on more radar
weather radar. But there's two eight now they've had their reign.
They're all flooded. These people are all out of their
house and it's absolutely devastating. Some of them lost every
animal on their property. It's going to take years for
them to get all that back again. And I think
we've been caught totally unawares by this, Jamie. When I
(37:32):
spoke to you last week, I had no idea this
was I thought it was just another reign of it,
and now we're looking at the worst flood well probably ever,
certainly since nineteen seventy four.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
Okay, Chris Russell, thanks for your time. Maybe we got
off lightly with the tenth percent tariff. Happy Liberation Day.
Speaker 8 (37:50):
Yeah, absolutely, say to year, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (37:55):
People dance and me.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
Okay, wrapping the Country're going to wrap it with wee
bitty of feedback, Jamie. Ten percent may be better than
most other countries, but if most other countries are worse
off by large amounts, they won't have any spear cash
to buy our keyw fruit, wine, dairy, lamb, timber and beef.
Trump is doing his best to if up the whole world,
including the USA. Says Patrick, We'll see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:20):
Remember if I catch all the latest from the land.
It's The Country Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent,
you're specialist in John Deere construction equipment.
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