April 28, 2025 • 6 mins
This month's Global Markets Insight interview features an international trade expert who provides advice to business and government in the fields of international trade, government relations and economic development. Today, unsurprisingly, Trump's tariffs are at the top of the menu.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's welcome on to the show trade experts Stephen Jacobi.
He is this month's Global Markets Insight interview. And Stephen,
where do we start with Trump's tariffs? We all knew
they were coming, would be fair to say, but I
don't think any of us thought they would be this bad.
What do you say, you're an expert in the field.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Well, I think that's right, Jamie. We didn't actually foresee
this level of uncertainty and complexity in the rollout of
you know, Trump's tariffs. I mean, we knew these were coming.
I guess after he was elected he'd spoken about it
so often, but who could have foreseen the disruption that
was going to be to be caused by all of this,
(00:44):
Not just the imposition of tariffs, which is bad enough,
but the constant changes and re evaluations. And that is
what is really hard to business.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Is some of the damage that's been done thus far irreparable.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Well, I you know, it would be a brave person
to say that this is the last word on trade.
I mean, who knows if the president might change his
mind or that the future administration might head off in
another direction. But I think most common datas these days
are saying this actually marks a fundamental change in the
global system. It's changed in the global trade landscape. I mean,
(01:24):
this rising protectionism isn't exactly new. It didn't just come
from the United States. It's been around for a number
of years now. But certainly the president has turned into
something of an art form. I don't know if it
will turned to some earlier time, but probably not. I
would say, am I going to have to get used
to a different way of interacting on the global state.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
We haven't really learned from history, And correct me if
I get the name wrong here, but it was something
like the Smoot Hawley tariffs that sort of were one
of the reasons that we had the Great Depression in
the early nineteen thirties.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Yes, that's absolutely right, and the Smooth Holy tariff is
actually the model. These ones are actually higher, would you believe.
And Smooth Hawley wasn't accompanied by all of this back
and forth and changing mind and whatever. But what difference
I would say, though, Jamie, is that the world is
a different place. You know, we've heard through the years
of trade integration. It's a lot more integrated than it
(02:22):
was back then. And all countries in New Zealand in particular,
I would argue, do have options other than the United States,
And I guess we're going to feel all of that
come to fruition. But we are going to be looking
at a more fragmented and uncertain global system, particularly as
the various countries try to make deals of the United
(02:43):
States to preserve their markets. Here word only is up
on the end of the day is really hard to
say at the moment.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Well, one of the big issues is obviously not only
the tariffs into the US, but the collateral damage calls
to other economies around the world. And we look at
China where he's currently got what one hundred and four
terrible though it seems to change daily, but this is
not going to do the Chinese economy any good. They
are our largest trading part partner. Admittedly the US is
(03:10):
now our second largest trading partner. But it's just no
matter which way you slice and diceon, it's just bad
news for a trading country like New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Yeah, and I'm afraid that is the case. And you know,
I think the relationship with China obviously becomes even more
important to us in the current situation. But still, mind
though that the shield of a Chinese experts. The United
States is a proportion of their total trade is not
that high, and so you know, they have a very
(03:41):
large economy to probably withstand some of the shops. But
no doubt the economy has been, you know, in a
bit of trouble recently, has been slow to file after
the pandemic. That certainly won't help. And we have the
problem of his additional towers in the United States. But
as you say, we have the secondary and even virtually
effects on other markets as a result of trade diversion.
(04:03):
And again this adds to the complexity of the environment
in which we're operating.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Let's try and make some lemonade out of these lemons.
Could this potentially present opportunity for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Well, in Jimmy business grows where in times of crisis
there is risk, but there is also opportunity. I mean,
the reality is and in a number of other markets,
we're going to face probably less US competition for some
of our agricultural products because of the tariffs retaliatory tariffs
that others are going to put on them. And you know,
(04:34):
the one example that can be pointed to is that
there's a great market for wine and Canada now opening
up as Canada, excuse me, retaliates against the United States.
So you know, there are opportunities, without doubt, and I
think it's very important we don't you know, panic and
over dramatize. On the other hand, I don't think we should,
(04:54):
you know, undercook all of this. It'll be a mix
of risk of opportunity going forwards. But again I say
in New Zealand is not without options. We have a
global good FDAs, we have very strong partners around the world,
and that is going to stand us in good speed,
(05:15):
in good spead, and I think probably we will do
our best of weather the storm of these additional towers
in the United States to the extent that we're able to.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Let's just finish on the Paris Climate Accord. What do
you make of Trump pulling out and as Winston and
David Seymour as suggesting, now, should we be following suit?
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Well, plump pulled out last time, and he's done it again.
Is not the end of American action to address climate change.
Most of this is in the hands of the business
community now in the United States and in the in
state governments, and there's going to be no turning back
on sustainability goals. The world is as long moved past this,
and I think it would be most unwise for New
(05:56):
Zealand to do anything similar. Frankly, I mean, you know,
we have a opportunity here for us, the opportunity to
adjusts a shumage challenge affecting the world, but also to
permission to position ourselves as the sustainable alternative. And we've
had companies investing, you know, deeply in this, uh you know,
(06:16):
for some years now. If we can do that satisfactually
and stay on the right side of these arguments and
avoid you know, any you know, maybe trade protections that
arises in disguised form, you know, we will do very well.
And that is the bigger picture we have to keep,
you know in mind. Sustainability is at the heart of
(06:36):
our offer to international markets, and we don't want to
be mucking around by you know, talking about with joints
from the Paris Agreement. I think that is very unwise. Indeed.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Stephen Chakobe Trade expert, thanks for some of your wisdom
today on the country. Have really enjoyed chatting.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
Thanks Jamie. As always,
Let's welcome on to the show trade experts Stephen Jacobi.
He is this month's Global Markets Insight interview. And Stephen,
where do we start with Trump's tariffs? We all knew
they were coming, would be fair to say, but I
don't think any of us thought they would be this bad.
What do you say, you're an expert in the field.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Well, I think that's right, Jamie. We didn't actually foresee
this level of uncertainty and complexity in the rollout of
you know, Trump's tariffs. I mean, we knew these were coming.
I guess after he was elected he'd spoken about it
so often, but who could have foreseen the disruption that
was going to be to be caused by all of this,
(00:44):
Not just the imposition of tariffs, which is bad enough,
but the constant changes and re evaluations. And that is
what is really hard to business.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Is some of the damage that's been done thus far irreparable.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Well, I you know, it would be a brave person
to say that this is the last word on trade.
I mean, who knows if the president might change his
mind or that the future administration might head off in
another direction. But I think most common datas these days
are saying this actually marks a fundamental change in the
global system. It's changed in the global trade landscape. I mean,
(01:24):
this rising protectionism isn't exactly new. It didn't just come
from the United States. It's been around for a number
of years now. But certainly the president has turned into
something of an art form. I don't know if it
will turned to some earlier time, but probably not. I
would say, am I going to have to get used
to a different way of interacting on the global state.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
We haven't really learned from history, And correct me if
I get the name wrong here, but it was something
like the Smoot Hawley tariffs that sort of were one
of the reasons that we had the Great Depression in
the early nineteen thirties.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Yes, that's absolutely right, and the Smooth Holy tariff is
actually the model. These ones are actually higher, would you believe.
And Smooth Hawley wasn't accompanied by all of this back
and forth and changing mind and whatever. But what difference
I would say, though, Jamie, is that the world is
a different place. You know, we've heard through the years
of trade integration. It's a lot more integrated than it
(02:22):
was back then. And all countries in New Zealand in particular,
I would argue, do have options other than the United States,
And I guess we're going to feel all of that
come to fruition. But we are going to be looking
at a more fragmented and uncertain global system, particularly as
the various countries try to make deals of the United
(02:43):
States to preserve their markets. Here word only is up
on the end of the day is really hard to
say at the moment.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Well, one of the big issues is obviously not only
the tariffs into the US, but the collateral damage calls
to other economies around the world. And we look at
China where he's currently got what one hundred and four
terrible though it seems to change daily, but this is
not going to do the Chinese economy any good. They
are our largest trading part partner. Admittedly the US is
(03:10):
now our second largest trading partner. But it's just no
matter which way you slice and diceon, it's just bad
news for a trading country like New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Yeah, and I'm afraid that is the case. And you know,
I think the relationship with China obviously becomes even more
important to us in the current situation. But still, mind
though that the shield of a Chinese experts. The United
States is a proportion of their total trade is not
that high, and so you know, they have a very
(03:41):
large economy to probably withstand some of the shops. But
no doubt the economy has been, you know, in a
bit of trouble recently, has been slow to file after
the pandemic. That certainly won't help. And we have the
problem of his additional towers in the United States. But
as you say, we have the secondary and even virtually
effects on other markets as a result of trade diversion.
(04:03):
And again this adds to the complexity of the environment
in which we're operating.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Let's try and make some lemonade out of these lemons.
Could this potentially present opportunity for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Well, in Jimmy business grows where in times of crisis
there is risk, but there is also opportunity. I mean,
the reality is and in a number of other markets,
we're going to face probably less US competition for some
of our agricultural products because of the tariffs retaliatory tariffs
that others are going to put on them. And you know,
(04:34):
the one example that can be pointed to is that
there's a great market for wine and Canada now opening
up as Canada, excuse me, retaliates against the United States.
So you know, there are opportunities, without doubt, and I
think it's very important we don't you know, panic and
over dramatize. On the other hand, I don't think we should,
(04:54):
you know, undercook all of this. It'll be a mix
of risk of opportunity going forwards. But again I say
in New Zealand is not without options. We have a
global good FDAs, we have very strong partners around the world,
and that is going to stand us in good speed,
(05:15):
in good spead, and I think probably we will do
our best of weather the storm of these additional towers
in the United States to the extent that we're able to.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Let's just finish on the Paris Climate Accord. What do
you make of Trump pulling out and as Winston and
David Seymour as suggesting, now, should we be following suit?
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Well, plump pulled out last time, and he's done it again.
Is not the end of American action to address climate change.
Most of this is in the hands of the business
community now in the United States and in the in
state governments, and there's going to be no turning back
on sustainability goals. The world is as long moved past this,
and I think it would be most unwise for New
(05:56):
Zealand to do anything similar. Frankly, I mean, you know,
we have a opportunity here for us, the opportunity to
adjusts a shumage challenge affecting the world, but also to
permission to position ourselves as the sustainable alternative. And we've
had companies investing, you know, deeply in this, uh you know,
(06:16):
for some years now. If we can do that satisfactually
and stay on the right side of these arguments and
avoid you know, any you know, maybe trade protections that
arises in disguised form, you know, we will do very well.
And that is the bigger picture we have to keep,
you know in mind. Sustainability is at the heart of
(06:36):
our offer to international markets, and we don't want to
be mucking around by you know, talking about with joints
from the Paris Agreement. I think that is very unwise. Indeed.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Stephen Chakobe Trade expert, thanks for some of your wisdom
today on the country. Have really enjoyed chatting.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
Thanks Jamie. As always,
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com