May 16, 2025 • 40 mins
Jamie talks to Jane Smith, Michael Every, Christopher Luxon, and Katie Milne.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Best of the Country with Rubbobak.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience, Grow with Rubbobag.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Who's going to ride that all three weeks?
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Gooday and Good morning New Zealand. My name's Jamie McKay.
Welcome to the Best of the Country. Each and every
Saturday morning here on News Talk Said we bring you
the best bits of our weekdays show twelve to one.
Bob Seeger and the Silver Bullet Band. Today's musical thing.
Jane Smith North Otago farmer post a girl for the
Methane Science Accord kicks off the show today. Big discussion
(00:49):
this week on the show about methane and how we
should measure it and whether we should kick the Paris
Climate Agreement to touch. Favorite interview this week though, was
a two part Into You with Michael every Rabobank's Singapore
based global strategist. Will there be an end to Trump's tariffs?
What happened to thrive in twenty five for the world economy,
(01:12):
what's the best business to be in food or munitions?
And will an American pope get Trump to calm the farm?
We're going to wrap it with Prime Minister Christopher Luxen
and Katie Milne, the woman who broke the grass selling
when she became the first national president female National President
of Federated Farmers. It's all on the best of the
(01:33):
country and it's all brought to you by Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
Fly pass the best of the country with Rabobank. Choose
the bank with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
It was yesterday's big news story the release of the
ruminant Methane Survey report from ground Swell and Z Farming
and the Methane Science Accord. The poster girl probably for
all three organizations as North Otago Farmer former winner of
the Balanced Farm Environment towards Jane Smith and Jane was
(02:13):
this survey and echo chamber that'll get a bite.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
Good afternoon, Jamie Well. I guess if any of those people,
including the National Party and Beef and Lamb and eggri
Zero etca, took the time to go to a walshed
and tai happy or toured hat free or a country
hall somewhere, I believe that absolutely he had the same
narrative as well, that just basically farmers have had enough
(02:37):
of playing the scapegoat and actually there's benefits for all
of New Zealanders if we actually calculate methane right and
move on, Jamie, stop wasting so much money and time
and quasi research time into this fast Jamie.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
Well, let's look at the sample size of this survey,
because I facetiously called at an echo chamber just looking
for a response, and I didn't really get one, to
be honest, Jane. But four hundred and twenty thousand followers
of either New Zealand Farming ground Swell or the Methane
Science Accord. That is a huge sample.
Speaker 4 (03:13):
Oh, it certainly is. And you know, I think I'll
have to be heavily sedated before I listened to Grant
McCallum's methane Furman. Again, I was really disappointed to hear.
I guess how ill informed he was. And again, this
is just reflecting what rural New Zealand think. And I
actually felt sorry for him in terms of his lack
of knowledge in terms of science, metrics and economics. And
(03:35):
you know, to suggest that fifty percent of our New
Zealand's milk payout is attributed to being being an empty
signatory on meaningless accord is really concerning so I guess
if politics doesn't work out from there'll certainly be a
place in the Yuen or Greenpeace for him.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Daily.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Well, let's just requote our good friend Grant McCullum. He said,
if we pull out of Paris, the milk price will
go from ten dollars to five dollars.
Speaker 4 (03:59):
You're not having a bar of that, Absolutely not, Jamie.
When you look at just put the cost of all
of this methane mitigation fiscal farce that we're putting in.
You know, Paris itself is going to cost between twenty
four and thirty six billion dollars. And I guess the
other thing is, I guess I know for a fact
that the NATS and our sector leaders are actually embarrassed
(04:20):
about their amount of tax fay money that has already
been squandered on the Paris Accords new clothes in terms
of the methane contribution to that, because not only have
the coalition endorsed or validated the Labour Greens position on
this on it, they've actually doubled down and they're about
to throw another four hundred million dollars into the methane
melting pot. And you know, to hear egg Ri zero's
(04:42):
wayning methane. M me say last week that the reason
farmers are frustrated at being asked to decrease their emissions
is that we don't have the tools or options to
decrease them. It's not that at all way, It's actually
that there is no need for any further reductions. We
actually meet the definition of net zero or read. And
if you look at our stock numbers, sheep down by
(05:02):
fifty eight percent since nineteen ninety, beef down by twenty
one percent, deer down by twenty four percent. Again, we're
already taking billions out of our economy. Why should we
be spending any more on this on the space And actually,
you know, I know you're going to, you know, question
why we should be getting out? And I guess I've
done a bit of analysis in terms of why what
(05:23):
happened when we got in. And one thing I've always
been really confused about, Jamie is as what we actually
signed up for, not just the cost of it, but
the track that we took. And interesting enough, the French
were we're clear enough to take a sequestration, egg ecology
biodiversity pathway, food security pathway. What do New Zealand do
(05:45):
you think we would have run with that, but no,
we went down the technology version pathway sort of the
us GE middling with pools, potions and vaccines, et cetera.
So why we did that, I cannot. I do not know,
but I think it's time that we just cut it short,
draw the line and start celebrating New Zealand's mission profile
for what it is, because that's good news for all
(06:07):
New Zealanders.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
Jamie.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Okay, well, let's look at some of these numbers. To date,
over three hundred and thirty million has been spent on
ruminant methane research, up to another four hundred million committed.
That's nearly three quarters of a billion dollars. Now, you guys,
also in your wide ranging survey, asked the respondents where
(06:29):
they would prefer that the money went. Sixty four said
healthcare and nineteen percent said infrastructure. Only four percent said methane.
Speaker 4 (06:39):
Exactly, Jomiane, that's a hell of a lot of hospitals
that we can be building for the wider paris are
called cost and I know that, you know, if we're
going to have that next later known question come up,
and you know, silver and farms and Frontier are always
very very quick to jump to that. And you know
why don't we ask the consumers actually asked them because
(07:00):
the most ardent environmentalist and I've talked a lot of
James Sure about this back when he was in government,
and Will actually should be alarmed. But all roads and
methane mitigation actually lead to more intensive farming. So we
need to ask consumers. Do they want feed lots? Do
they want to be fossil fuel dependent? Do they want
concrete jungles for our livestock to be housed? You know
(07:22):
the sort of things that doctor Frank Mitloger was talking
about last week when he was talking about intensive feed
lot Californian dairy production a world away from our production completely.
So do they want that with a potentially lower emissions intensity.
So you've got to remember, and your listeners will know this,
(07:42):
but if you look at emission's intensity, a weather up
the back of the mckendy country comes out of it
as a methane terrorist, whereas a heavily intensive system five
dairy production system comes out as a hero. I mean
that is just fascical. And again, do we want to
be interfare with our food?
Speaker 5 (08:00):
I say not.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
People in our surveys see not. But we need to
actually go out to our customers and us in that, Jamie,
because we can't keep going with this narrative. We need
to stop growing the methane myths and start growing food.
Speaker 5 (08:12):
Did the world? Okay?
Speaker 3 (08:13):
I hate just a really quick final comment from you,
because I'm out of time. Is this a shot across
the bows from the likes of ground swell and in
zed farming and the methane science accord, A shot across
the bowels of beef and lamb in z dairy and
z feed farmers, the industry good bodies.
Speaker 5 (08:29):
Well, I wouldn't say that.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
I think it's just a genuine reflection of rural New Zealand.
And we see rural communities being destroyed to no reason whatsoever.
We see other environmental initiatives, and I'm an environmentalist, Shamie,
you know that that have just been pushed by the wayside.
We see our scientists distracted by this fascical methane money
train instead of actually doing looking at our real issues
(08:53):
in New Zealand and worldwide, and we could have actually
been helping the world produce pasture raised protein, show them
how to do it efficiently. So I'm sure this is
scrabbling going on behind the scenes. I'm sure feeds and
beef and lamb and the Crown will come up with
a new target next week probably, I'd suggest it's probably
going to be something in the range of sort of
(09:13):
fifteen to twenty percent. Actually, what they need to do
is get their sticky fingers out at any target and
let's just carry on with a fish and effective production. Jamie,
and look at the big picture here, because actually this
is just again a gross distraction and a gross waste
of money and a country that can't afford its own healthcare.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Jennie Jane Smith, North Otago farmer post a girl for
the Methane Science Accord. You never die wondering what Jane's
thinking up next, Michael Every two part interview with Rabobanks,
Singapore based global strategist. Before the end of the hour,
Prime Minister Christopher Luxen and Katie Milne, who, as I
(09:51):
said earlier on the show, broke the grass ceiling when
she became the first female president of Federated Farmers. This
is the best of the country. It's brought to you
by Rabobank.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
Love to watch you do Hurst.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
The best of the country with Rabobank, the bank with
local agribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities Rubbobank.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
He is Rabobank's Singapore based global strategist. His name is Michael.
Every love having him on the country. Michael. Yesterday we
saw the ninety day pause or the lifting of some
of Trump's Chinese tariffs. The result was the Dow Jones
going up nearly three percent. Is this the beginning of
the end for tariffs in the beginning of a bright
(10:38):
new world?
Speaker 5 (10:40):
No. I'm going to more detail if you want, but
I think knows a good answer to start with.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
So that's a pretty short answer. Explain why it is
such a definitive No.
Speaker 5 (10:50):
Well, you have to look at things in a broader perspective.
First of all, just to be boring and technical, we
still have a thirty percent tariff on China on top
of twenty five percent tariffs on two thirds of Chinese
goods legacy from the first Trump presidency and the Biden presidency.
So technically two thirds of the stuff going to the
(11:11):
US faces around a fifty five percent tariff. That's not
what you would call low by any standards. The fact
that it seems low in a way is a victory
for Trump. By having gone to such ludicrous extremes, what's
left now seems reasonable.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
Has Trump got a better deal than the Chinese? It's
only ten percent going the other wire? Or have I
got that wrong as well?
Speaker 5 (11:32):
No, no, you're right, only ten percent going the other way.
So he's got a better deal in the short term,
even though, of course people are saying that he folded.
And if you look at certain things the US have
said and done, I would say you can see they
have drawn dotted lines on things where folds could happen
in the future, but they haven't folded them yet. But
(11:55):
the bigger picture is not only that those tariffs are
still in place, but the US has said, look, they
go back up again if in ninety days we don't
get China to do what we want. And then it
comes back to the bigger picture perspective of who things
China can do what the US wants, And if you
look at what the US is demanding and if you
look at what China is prepared to supply, it's really
(12:16):
really hard, realistically to imagine that that deal can be done.
So if you're a cynic, you say, look the US
was facing empty shelves and inflation in the next couple
of months. And that's true because they were hoping China
would already have buckled, and it didn't. Now everyone's going
to rush like stink to resupply from China, to fill
(12:36):
their inventories sky high, to make sure this can't happen again.
And then when they've done that, the US will be
looking for a round two. I would think, one way
or another, or at least doing the same thing it
was doing up until now, but just more slowly, rather
than ripping the plaster off in one go. That strikes
me as still being far more logical than suddenly everyone
(12:57):
singing Kumbai around the campfire.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
Who currently has the stronger hand and the scheme of
strip poker?
Speaker 5 (13:04):
Oh wow, that's an interesting visual metaphor. I don't think
either of them have a very strong hand, because the
US doesn't make very much, obviously, and that's a real
problem when you don't get the stuff supplied to you
by China, and yet China doesn't have enough people to
buy the stuff or the profit margins they want to
set it out without the US. Technically, the US are
(13:25):
correct that in historical terms, whoever is the person who's
buying the stuff has the whip hand. The customer is
always right at the end of the day. The problem
is in the interim. If China just says we are
prepared to suffer the pain of not supplying you with
anything until you sweat it out, you know more than
we do. You can see that the US does have
(13:45):
to blink on that front. But as I said, if
they now restock, if every retailer in the US is right,
let's get in loads and loads of inventory, they're in
a better position to then restart this whole circus in August.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
What happened to thrive and twenty five?
Speaker 5 (14:03):
I don't even know what that is.
Speaker 3 (14:04):
It's the saying you've got to survive twenty four and
thrive and twenty five. As in twenty twenty five the
world economy was going to come right. Then Trump came
along with the terifs.
Speaker 5 (14:14):
Ah, Yeah, well that was said by idiots. To be honest,
I think the version of it that I heard in
markets was stay alive till twenty five. But really, you know,
to make a serious point alongside the flippant one I
just made. If that is from a financial market perspective
where I work, you're trading strategy to stay alive and
everything will be better next year. You're in the wrong
(14:35):
job because you haven't understood anything that led to the
volatility that we saw in twenty twenty four. And I
warned explicitly again and again and again in every fourum
I have, including this one of course, with gratitude, that
we were going to have a really rocky road in
twenty five. I called it the year of living dangerously.
I was very explicit about that, and I said, the
(14:57):
people thinking everything was going to be right just because
it was a new year, well it's about as useful
as the tooth fairy and trying to make predictions that
the reality was always deeply, deeply concerning. And we've seen
exactly that play out.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
Can New Zealand thrive and other markets to counter Trump's
ten percent traffs currently imposed.
Speaker 5 (15:15):
On us, Well, the ten percent into the US is
really neither here nor there. I don't know anyone who's
seriously concerned about that. In the biggest scheme of things.
What's much much more important for New Zealand is a
process which will now be slowed down partially by what
was just agreed between the US and China this week
slowed down but in no way avoided, which is the
(15:36):
US pressurizing every other country to come to the table
and say, right, let's do a deal. Part of that
deal will be more slowly than maybe it would have
been before, but you are going to freeze China out
of your market. You are going to start a process
of gradual realignment of supply chains so that you deal
with the US block rather than China. That process, as
(15:56):
far as I'm concerned as a global strategist, is still
absolutely logs unloaded.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
Michael Avery with US Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist and
part two of this interview. Let's have a look at
what's the best business to be in food or munitions?
Speaker 1 (16:12):
The best of the country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience, Grow with Rubbobank.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
Welcome back to the country, and welcome back Michael Every
Rabobanks Singapore based global strategists. As I teased before the break,
what's the best business to be in food or munitions
in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 5 (16:34):
Wow, you're not really giving me much of a choice.
If there's the only table that's literally what you call it,
guns or butter, choice, isn't it, As we used to
say in political terms, I actually think food in one respect,
one key respect here. First of all, you have to
have food. You don't have to have guns, although at
the moment of course everybody wants guns. But another key
(16:54):
one which people are overlooking, which is this Right now,
everyone's very gung ho about the military sexor and I
think right, I've been arguing that for years. But if
you're talking about producing the stuff, and if you're talking
about holding shares, you know, equity in that kind of sector,
you have to remember that once national security gets involved,
which it is, big profits aren't allowed. There's a word
(17:18):
for people and companies that make really mega profits by
selling things to the state that they need in an emergency,
and it's called profiteering. And I don't know if you
have any personal memory of how profiteering used to be
treated during things like World War Two, but it involves
bullets and not as gifts. So if that's going to
be the case, I would imagine that if we have
(17:38):
to rearm a lot more, it's going to be a
lot lower profit margins with the government saying this is
too important for people to make a lot of money doing.
I don't see that happening in food. I can see
food being propped up by the state in various different
ways if necessary, and hopefully judiciously in terms of you know,
key things like infrastructure, but you still need to actually
make a return on farming to do it. So between
(18:01):
the two, you know, someone who likes markets food, not guns.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
We're always on a state of turmoil here on planet Earth.
We've got Russia, the Ukraine, Israel, Hamas now India versus
Pakistan on the doomsday clock sort of scenario. Is this
the most unsettled we've been since I don't know, the
Cuban missile crisis of the early nineteen sixties.
Speaker 5 (18:24):
Well, we have had a couple of very big wars,
you know, in the past couple of decades, involving Iraq,
of course, which had a lot more death and destruction
than we're currently seeing. But in terms of the breadth
of the problem and the structural depth of the problem,
not in any one geography, but just in terms of
the entire picture we're looking at. Yes, because as you've
(18:46):
heard me say many times, over the years, Jamie, the
entire global architecture that we built post Cold War is
crumbling around us, absolutely crumbling. You might not feel it
on a farm in New Zealand day in, day out,
but I can assure you lots of people and other
geographies are and in fact, interestingly, if you look at
all the places you just listed and some of the
others that are on the you know, unfortunately on the
(19:08):
short list to be joining them, all of them are
key pivot points in terms of where we think global
trade flows or the borders of new global trade blocks
will sit. And that is not a coincidence in any way,
shape or form.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
Who impresses you on the world stage? Now, I know
Sakia Starmer doesn't impress British farmers one iota, but he
seems to be making himself felt on the world stage.
Could he be, then, you diplomat.
Speaker 5 (19:38):
No, let's go back to the short answer that I
review go on, I very much doubt it. You have
to basically start with a strong base at home. Now
he's got a very very strong one in terms of
his position in Parliament, that's undeniable. But if you actually
look at where he is in the opinion polls right now,
it's very low and almost every policy that he appears
to be putting forward at the moment going down like
(20:00):
a lead balloon. So it's not that he isn't trying.
He's certainly doing what many prime ministers and presidents do
when they're on a sticky wicket, which is, let's try
and look good internationally to build a bit of kudos domestically.
But it's honestly really going down like a lead balloon so.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
Far, okay, So it just boils down to Trump versus
Shi Jingping.
Speaker 5 (20:21):
Well, Putin's in the mix too, and I wouldn't rule
out India's Modi Prime Minister Modi very powerful figure who's
certainly capable of implementing enormous changes depending on what he
decides to do. And even with Trump there in the
next few hours, the Prince Muhammad bin Salman in Saudi Arabia.
He's really a mover and shaker getting things done. So
(20:41):
there are people out there that really can shift things,
but not as many of them are the traditional European
or Anglo Saxon talking heads you know that we're used
to from the past. This is a different world now.
We have to listen to a broader variety of people.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
Could a Chicago born American pope get trumped?
Speaker 5 (21:00):
Calm the farm, Calm the farm.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
It's another New Zealand saying.
Speaker 5 (21:06):
Okay, I like one. I haven't heard that. Well. I
don't really think Trump listens to popes or priests that much.
I think it was entertaining in terms of a headline
to actually have a made in America pope, just when
we've got all the issue of tariffs going around, and
that we've got white smoke on the pope and on
the rumored US China trade deal which came out on
(21:27):
Monday on the same day. So there's a bit of
a divine intervention there perhaps, But I don't think the
Pope himself is going to be directing, you know, any
kind of policy for the US, be it geopolitical or trade.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Hey, on a lighter note, just to finish, Trump accepting
the seven four seven jumbo jet from the Katari royal
family worth nearly seven hundred million dollars. Of course he'd accepted,
He said, you'd be stupid not to.
Speaker 5 (21:52):
Well, yeah, they offered me one. I'd take one too.
I don't necessarily think that it's completely appropriate, although it
is apparently a more nuanced argument than it's being presented
by some, but nonetheless not a good look and you know,
looks very important. But that's not actually the craziest headline
they've had today. It's actually yesterday last night. We got
it quite late here in Asia. The Trump is apparently
going to meet the president of Syria today or he
(22:16):
may do, that's the rumor. Who is a former al
Qaeda member, So that shows how the world is changing.
But the rumor is that the president of Syria is
offering to build Trump Tower in Damascus, where we still
have massacres going on in the suburbs. So it doesn't
mean he's going to go along with it. But you know,
it's a wacky world of sports out there at the moment.
It really is.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
We live in the crazy world. Michael Every, Rabobank, Singapore
based global strategist, Love your time, love you work here
on the country.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
Thank you the best of the country with Rabobank. Choose
the bank with the huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Ravo Bank.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
Good morning New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This is the
best of the country. It's brought to you by Rabobank.
We're growing a bit of New Zealand again. How good
was Michael Every, Singapore based global strategist Up next on
the Best of the Country, Prime Minister Krista Bluxen, a
regular on Wednesday's show, and Katie Milne West Coast Kowcocky
former or the first female president of Federated Farmers Hey.
(23:16):
Just on the subject of rabobank, then there are graduate
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the Prime Minister, the.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Best of the Country with Rubbobank, the bank with local
agribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities Rubbo Bank.
Speaker 3 (24:17):
Wednesday's on the Country, The Big Guy, the PM kicks
off the show. Here's a question Christopher Luxen from our
Shanghai based correspondent Hunter McGregor on yesterday's show, He's disappointed
that you haven't been or fronted up in China yet
with a trade delegation.
Speaker 5 (24:34):
Why not, Well, I just say, watched this space.
Speaker 6 (24:37):
It's imminent as a trip to China. It's something I've
been looking forward to doing for a long time. It's
obviously country. In my former life with Unilever and uni
Zeana did a lot of business in as well, and
it's a really important relationship for us, and I think
there's huge opportunity in trade for us to continue to
deepen up those connections in China. So I'm really looking
forward to taking great delegation to China. It'll be announced
(24:59):
very short we do. The announcements is pretty close to
the time because of for security reasons. For different reasons,
for the different president and Premier of China as much
as for me, and so to watch the space.
Speaker 3 (25:11):
As Trump would say, it will be a great delegation,
a beautiful delegation, the beginning of the end of Trump's
tariffs or is that just wishful thinking from me? Oh?
Speaker 6 (25:20):
Look, I think he's campaigned very strongly in the campaign
around tariff is an idea you're obviously seeing America. You
use it in a way that they want to to
advance their interests. You know. The good news for New
Zealand is that, you know, there's no country that's better
off than New Zealand at this point. And that's our
expectation our exporters when I check him with them each week,
(25:43):
I check them with quite a few of them each
if we week, to see how it's all going. They
just see still huge opportunity in North America. So you know,
we keep monitoring it. We've got our officials talking to
the government administration. Todd mcclay's due to meet with the
Trade Secretary very next month as well and have a
good conversation from there at a meeting. And so yeah,
(26:03):
so look, we keep monitoring really closely. But for us,
it's about New Zealand. We've got huge opportunity. We've got
rapidly growing middle classes. We've got great products to sell
to the world. We just got to get out and
follow our own plan.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
You know how we have trouble getting you places like
on our air force planes. Has any kind of Middle
Eastern country with the dodgy human rights record offered you
an airplane, even a Cessna, it might get you there
on time.
Speaker 6 (26:30):
Oh look, Jamie, I really appreciate your help with the
airplane situation. But look that hasn't been and off of
that's been executed to us. We'll continue battling away using
what we've got.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
Now there's a ground swell, no pun intended out there
to get us out of Paris. Now, it's coming from
the likes of ground Swell, methane science accord in z
Farming one of the biggest social media platforms for rural
New Zealand behind the country of course, what do you
say to those farmers? Why should they stay there because
you're Northland MP Grant mcnasal McCullum has taken a pasting
(27:05):
on this show for standing up for Paris.
Speaker 6 (27:09):
Yeah, well look, I mean you may not like it.
To hear this because it's very easy to dump to
simplistic solutions, right or what you think is a simplistic solution,
But just just take a step back and think about it.
I mean, and this is what I hear from farmers
up and down the country, and they understand this. I'm
acting brutally in New Zealand's national interest. I don't want
to punish farmers. Pulling us out of Paris would punish
farmer a big time because I'm telling you right now,
(27:30):
the large multinationals, many that are as big as New
Zealand as a country, we'd just say now I'm looking
for an excuse to get out of that New Zealand
product and get rid of it. And I can tell
you many countries. I'm thinking about many European I know
we'd love nothing more than to see New Zealand gairy products,
red meat and everything kicked off the shelves. And they'd
use that as a nontower barrier to essentially do that.
(27:51):
So it's in New Zealand's national interests. I'm not there
to punish. I don't want to punish farmers. We're not
sending production offshore. We are do we are acting. It's
in our brutal national interests to be part of that
agreement because I'm telling you and go talk to people
who know what will happen is you can sit there
and say, oh, this is this is the right solution
(28:11):
as well, and as though yeah, we're great, when we
lose a whole bunch of distribution in Europe and other
parts of the world because we've pulled out and I
tell you countries, there are countries that we compete with
that would love nothing more than to put our product
from the Netherlands, from Denmark all through Western Europe rather
than have New Zealand product there. We just grew trade
(28:33):
with Western Europe by a billion dollars in the last
twelve months. We just grew our exports to the UK
by twenty one percent in the last twelve months, and
that was farmers and your underwife, agricultures and a recovery.
It's because we're getting our product out there to the world.
And I'm telling you do that and you'll have a
lot less returns and farming will go down, and that's
(28:53):
not great.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
New Zealand will pass an economic milestone in twenty twenty
eight when the government I EU if you're still there
as forecast to make its first ever withdrawal from the
New Zealand Super fun Prime Minister, are we flogging the
family silverware to pay for an unaffordable age of eligibility
for national Super. It would appear to me we are.
Speaker 6 (29:14):
Well, you know how we feel about it as national
You know, the reality is that every ten years New
Zealander's average life expectancy has been going up, I think
over over a year and a bit, so we think
that's why it makes sense. We've said that for a
long period of time. Bill English said that for a
long period of time we need to raise the average
age of Super. You know very strongly that in a
coalition government, New Zealand First has no support for that proposal.
(29:37):
In fact, Labour didn't I think support that proposal last
time last year as well. So you know, the reality
is we think it makes sense. New Zealanders are living longer,
they're living healthier our lives and actually lifting that age
of superannuation would be a good thing. That will continue
to advocate for that. If we can do that in
a future great Agreement, we'd love to do that. In
the meantime, we have a piece of legislation that says
(29:59):
this New Zealand Superannuation needs support. You've got to make
withdrawals from the superfund. So yes, that sort of bounces
around with some withdrawals and contributions. But actually from twenty
thirty one onwards, projections show that withdrawals from the super
fund are actually expected in each and every year, and
those withdrawals are made so that that then to cover
(30:19):
the costs as you say, of the his z own
superannuation schemes, that the taxpayers don't face that full cost
each year. So we have reached that tipping point. But
you're right, I mean, I think that's a great reason
for why we you know, we've tried to have the
conversation before, but this is the reality of it. It's
getting to a place where in twenty thirty one, yep,
we have to make those.
Speaker 3 (30:37):
Yeah, but I mean, Prime Minister, with all due respect,
why don't you just tell one stant to side off
because he's not likely to cuddle up to Labor to
party Maury and the Greens.
Speaker 6 (30:45):
Now, well, we'll have to see, because I mean that'll
be the comp you know, we will advocate for that
in the future. Government from twenty twenty six on once
We'll go to the market, you know, go to the
electric with that policy. Again, Labor opposed it, you know,
he's Zealand first to post it, so, you know, because
of the politics of it, and I just think that's
you're going to make some tough decisions, and the right
(31:06):
decision is actually say, yep, average life expectses increasing. It
makes complete sense the lest for two years, we can
do it in a sensible kind of way and the
cost of the systems getting increasingly unaffordable.
Speaker 3 (31:17):
Watch the space, Prime Minister, thanks for your time as always.
Speaker 6 (31:20):
Thanks Jamie, have a great week.
Speaker 1 (31:21):
The Best of the Country with Rubboback.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
Choose the Bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience Grow with Rubboback.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
Yesterday's conversation on the Country was all about the ruminant
methane survey from Groundswell, Methane Science, accord and enz farming.
Another conversation was whether we should be in or out
of Paris. I'm going to come back to that one.
But some interesting feedback I got on the show yesterday
via the text line came from Katie Milne West Coast
(31:50):
Dairy Farmer, former president of Federated Farmers, the woman who
broke the grass ceiling and Katie, you, for your sins,
had to go to one of those copcomfferences and you're
up in arms about us not using GWP STAR as
a measuring mechanism for methane.
Speaker 7 (32:08):
Yeah, actually, for my sins, I've been to two of them,
to be fair, but it was interesting. The first one
I went to was part of the New Zealand delegation
and the data and research had not too long been
out about global warming potential star versus global warming potential
one hundred, and that clearly showed that there was less
(32:29):
impact from methane and if you didn't add animals to
your system, you weren't increasing warming. That was put forward
by myself and others in conversations around the traps over there,
and why wouldn't this be accepted or when can this
be brought into the system, because it's a fair.
Speaker 4 (32:49):
Away, it's been pair reviewed and it.
Speaker 7 (32:51):
Does reflect properly what actually happens with warming, And to
my charge, in horror, a lot of people said, yep,
that's all good. It can come into the mix at
some stage, but it won't be till quite a few
years down the road because of the cyclical nature of
the cops and metrics will be done at that stage.
(33:12):
I think it's twenty nineteen, in about another seven years so,
And I just like flabbergacid. It's like, if you've got
cutting edge data research, it's peered reviewed and makes sense
and is accepted by the IPPC, why on Earth wouldn't
you put it through? Because aren't we after the best
results for the planet all around and for whatever industry
(33:34):
you're in, obviously or sector, but especially for farmers all
around the globe. This was a message that actually, if
you're doing things as efficiently as you can with your animals,
that's okay, and that's the.
Speaker 5 (33:48):
Direction you should go.
Speaker 7 (33:50):
So that it sort of really locked me for fix
actually that there was not a lot of interest in
pursuing it at any pace whatsoever.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
So if we use GWP are as a measuring mechanism,
the methane problem from ruminants basically disappears off the face
of the earth because there is no increased warming from animals.
But the counter argument to that one, and I'm only
playing Devil's advocate here, Katie, is people will the climate
change people will say a half of New Zealand's emissions
(34:20):
come from animals.
Speaker 7 (34:22):
Well, that's a thing to do with our per capita
and what our country is good at. Our animals are
still the most efficient. Our production system is the most
efficient for methane, you know, per kilogram of output on
the planet. So you know, you've got to balance up
what is actually happening to on the broader scheme of
(34:44):
things versus just actually New Zealand. Your number is high.
Why is it height? It's not because we've got industrial
car manufacturing and lots and lots and lots of coal
fired generation. We've got a little bit. We have this
grass seed beef and make milk which in land, which
everybody's looking for. If you go and look at what
(35:05):
trends are around the world for consumers, they're moving towards
that natural fed product hell for leather as fast as
they can get it because they are seeing that that
way is the way to go, and why not take
New Zealand product because it actually has a low carbon
footprint as well.
Speaker 3 (35:23):
Now you won't get an argument from me just on
the Paris Climate Agreement whether we should be in or
out and ground swallow jumping up and down about this one.
Right as we speak, they're starting a new campaign on
this one. I know you didn't hear them, but Christopher
Luxon said on the show earlier, if we pull out
a Paris European countries are going to kick us to
touch and it's going to cost farmers of fortune.
Speaker 7 (35:46):
Well, that will be an interesting one to see because
it's I hope he's absolutely wrong because our product is
top notch all those things, as we know. But when
people go around the globe and talk to people, your
average punter doesn't talk about that at all. And the
Paris Agreement did say you have to protect food security
in the process of trying to reduce your emissions, so
(36:08):
you know, we know about emission's leakage. If we don't
do it, someone else picks it up and they don't
do it as efficiently, so overall it's a net lost
for the planet. But yeah, I know people and myself
when I've traveled around you talk to consumers, they want
food security and maybe there's a tiny, tiny, tiny few
points zero zero one that look at the carbon and
(36:31):
go yep, you've got to have this number right. But again,
we haven't told the story properly. We just get in
an echo chamber when we go to those sort of talks.
I feel, and we played the orchestra that's singing at
the time, which is you have to reduce your number,
regardless of what it means. So we really have to
(36:52):
get our story out there better. And we all hear
that all the time, but it's the truth.
Speaker 3 (36:57):
We need to take them on our journey. Katie, I
hate that word. Hey, how are things on the West Coast?
Just to finish on house your season winding up? If
you dried up, dried up? Try it off yet, Katie.
Speaker 7 (37:09):
We haven't. We haven't quite dried off yet. It's been
a cracker second half. First half was too wet, it
went dry straight away. But it's been very, very mild,
and so we've only had a couple of frosts in
May and the grass is still checking over, you know,
starting to slow off as the sunshine hours drop. But
you know, it's looking pretty good for us, so we'll
(37:30):
take it every time.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
Oh Katie, I'll leave you to go away and ponder
what you're going to do with all your money this season.
Always enjoy your input to the country and thanks for listening.
Yesterday all good, Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 1 (37:41):
The best of.
Speaker 2 (37:42):
The Country with Rabobank Choose the Bank with a huge
network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 3 (37:48):
Rabobank Katie Melon, first female president of Federated Farmer Smart Woman,
are wrapping the best of the country. Good morning, My
name's Jamie McKay. Each Saturday morning. This show is brought
to you by Rabobank, Ryan Fox, go you good thing
at the PGA Championship and Mowana Pacifica. Can the dream continue?
(38:11):
Let's hope so tonight up against the Blues. I'll catch
you back, same time, same place next Saturday morning. I'm
gonna leave you with my favorite Bob Seeger and the
Silver Bullet Band song. This is Firelake Joe.
Speaker 8 (38:27):
You remember on the Joe You have a lot of
friend to cout. The Keys Town sound shows off by.
Speaker 9 (38:52):
Shows wants to grave those brine mutants lying in the
sun with the long soft.
Speaker 8 (39:08):
Tail fall flying as they were.
Speaker 9 (39:14):
The lot that style, so shine.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
That flirt so well, and then leaning down so fast.
Speaker 8 (39:23):
Till you look straight up and.
Speaker 1 (39:24):
See, Oh lord, am I very hear?
Speaker 8 (39:30):
And now.
Speaker 1 (39:34):
You lost to play?
Speaker 8 (39:35):
Those skates and aces walls are raising.
Speaker 1 (39:43):
Who needs a snake.
Speaker 9 (39:50):
Wants the chick down, lost shot camper, and and I
the fire.
Speaker 8 (40:00):
I didn't that how.
Speaker 9 (40:07):
Vile the data f the data.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
Vanda.
Speaker 4 (40:28):
It was a by
Speaker 8 (40:35):
What's going to do
The Best of the Country with Rubbobak.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience, Grow with Rubbobag.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
Who's going to ride that all three weeks?
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Gooday and Good morning New Zealand. My name's Jamie McKay.
Welcome to the Best of the Country. Each and every
Saturday morning here on News Talk Said we bring you
the best bits of our weekdays show twelve to one.
Bob Seeger and the Silver Bullet Band. Today's musical thing.
Jane Smith North Otago farmer post a girl for the
Methane Science Accord kicks off the show today. Big discussion
(00:49):
this week on the show about methane and how we
should measure it and whether we should kick the Paris
Climate Agreement to touch. Favorite interview this week though, was
a two part Into You with Michael every Rabobank's Singapore
based global strategist. Will there be an end to Trump's tariffs?
What happened to thrive in twenty five for the world economy,
(01:12):
what's the best business to be in food or munitions?
And will an American pope get Trump to calm the farm?
We're going to wrap it with Prime Minister Christopher Luxen
and Katie Milne, the woman who broke the grass selling
when she became the first national president female National President
of Federated Farmers. It's all on the best of the
(01:33):
country and it's all brought to you by Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
Fly pass the best of the country with Rabobank. Choose
the bank with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (01:53):
It was yesterday's big news story the release of the
ruminant Methane Survey report from ground Swell and Z Farming
and the Methane Science Accord. The poster girl probably for
all three organizations as North Otago Farmer former winner of
the Balanced Farm Environment towards Jane Smith and Jane was
(02:13):
this survey and echo chamber that'll get a bite.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
Good afternoon, Jamie Well. I guess if any of those people,
including the National Party and Beef and Lamb and eggri
Zero etca, took the time to go to a walshed
and tai happy or toured hat free or a country
hall somewhere, I believe that absolutely he had the same
narrative as well, that just basically farmers have had enough
(02:37):
of playing the scapegoat and actually there's benefits for all
of New Zealanders if we actually calculate methane right and
move on, Jamie, stop wasting so much money and time
and quasi research time into this fast Jamie.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
Well, let's look at the sample size of this survey,
because I facetiously called at an echo chamber just looking
for a response, and I didn't really get one, to
be honest, Jane. But four hundred and twenty thousand followers
of either New Zealand Farming ground Swell or the Methane
Science Accord. That is a huge sample.
Speaker 4 (03:13):
Oh, it certainly is. And you know, I think I'll
have to be heavily sedated before I listened to Grant
McCallum's methane Furman. Again, I was really disappointed to hear.
I guess how ill informed he was. And again, this
is just reflecting what rural New Zealand think. And I
actually felt sorry for him in terms of his lack
of knowledge in terms of science, metrics and economics. And
(03:35):
you know, to suggest that fifty percent of our New
Zealand's milk payout is attributed to being being an empty
signatory on meaningless accord is really concerning so I guess
if politics doesn't work out from there'll certainly be a
place in the Yuen or Greenpeace for him.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Daily.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Well, let's just requote our good friend Grant McCullum. He said,
if we pull out of Paris, the milk price will
go from ten dollars to five dollars.
Speaker 4 (03:59):
You're not having a bar of that, Absolutely not, Jamie.
When you look at just put the cost of all
of this methane mitigation fiscal farce that we're putting in.
You know, Paris itself is going to cost between twenty
four and thirty six billion dollars. And I guess the
other thing is, I guess I know for a fact
that the NATS and our sector leaders are actually embarrassed
(04:20):
about their amount of tax fay money that has already
been squandered on the Paris Accords new clothes in terms
of the methane contribution to that, because not only have
the coalition endorsed or validated the Labour Greens position on
this on it, they've actually doubled down and they're about
to throw another four hundred million dollars into the methane
melting pot. And you know, to hear egg Ri zero's
(04:42):
wayning methane. M me say last week that the reason
farmers are frustrated at being asked to decrease their emissions
is that we don't have the tools or options to
decrease them. It's not that at all way, It's actually
that there is no need for any further reductions. We
actually meet the definition of net zero or read. And
if you look at our stock numbers, sheep down by
(05:02):
fifty eight percent since nineteen ninety, beef down by twenty
one percent, deer down by twenty four percent. Again, we're
already taking billions out of our economy. Why should we
be spending any more on this on the space And actually,
you know, I know you're going to, you know, question
why we should be getting out? And I guess I've
done a bit of analysis in terms of why what
(05:23):
happened when we got in. And one thing I've always
been really confused about, Jamie is as what we actually
signed up for, not just the cost of it, but
the track that we took. And interesting enough, the French
were we're clear enough to take a sequestration, egg ecology
biodiversity pathway, food security pathway. What do New Zealand do
(05:45):
you think we would have run with that, but no,
we went down the technology version pathway sort of the
us GE middling with pools, potions and vaccines, et cetera.
So why we did that, I cannot. I do not know,
but I think it's time that we just cut it short,
draw the line and start celebrating New Zealand's mission profile
for what it is, because that's good news for all
(06:07):
New Zealanders.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
Jamie.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Okay, well, let's look at some of these numbers. To date,
over three hundred and thirty million has been spent on
ruminant methane research, up to another four hundred million committed.
That's nearly three quarters of a billion dollars. Now, you guys,
also in your wide ranging survey, asked the respondents where
(06:29):
they would prefer that the money went. Sixty four said
healthcare and nineteen percent said infrastructure. Only four percent said methane.
Speaker 4 (06:39):
Exactly, Jomiane, that's a hell of a lot of hospitals
that we can be building for the wider paris are
called cost and I know that, you know, if we're
going to have that next later known question come up,
and you know, silver and farms and Frontier are always
very very quick to jump to that. And you know
why don't we ask the consumers actually asked them because
(07:00):
the most ardent environmentalist and I've talked a lot of
James Sure about this back when he was in government,
and Will actually should be alarmed. But all roads and
methane mitigation actually lead to more intensive farming. So we
need to ask consumers. Do they want feed lots? Do
they want to be fossil fuel dependent? Do they want
concrete jungles for our livestock to be housed? You know
(07:22):
the sort of things that doctor Frank Mitloger was talking
about last week when he was talking about intensive feed
lot Californian dairy production a world away from our production completely.
So do they want that with a potentially lower emissions intensity.
So you've got to remember, and your listeners will know this,
(07:42):
but if you look at emission's intensity, a weather up
the back of the mckendy country comes out of it
as a methane terrorist, whereas a heavily intensive system five
dairy production system comes out as a hero. I mean
that is just fascical. And again, do we want to
be interfare with our food?
Speaker 5 (08:00):
I say not.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
People in our surveys see not. But we need to
actually go out to our customers and us in that, Jamie,
because we can't keep going with this narrative. We need
to stop growing the methane myths and start growing food.
Speaker 5 (08:12):
Did the world? Okay?
Speaker 3 (08:13):
I hate just a really quick final comment from you,
because I'm out of time. Is this a shot across
the bows from the likes of ground swell and in
zed farming and the methane science accord, A shot across
the bowels of beef and lamb in z dairy and
z feed farmers, the industry good bodies.
Speaker 5 (08:29):
Well, I wouldn't say that.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
I think it's just a genuine reflection of rural New Zealand.
And we see rural communities being destroyed to no reason whatsoever.
We see other environmental initiatives, and I'm an environmentalist, Shamie,
you know that that have just been pushed by the wayside.
We see our scientists distracted by this fascical methane money
train instead of actually doing looking at our real issues
(08:53):
in New Zealand and worldwide, and we could have actually
been helping the world produce pasture raised protein, show them
how to do it efficiently. So I'm sure this is
scrabbling going on behind the scenes. I'm sure feeds and
beef and lamb and the Crown will come up with
a new target next week probably, I'd suggest it's probably
going to be something in the range of sort of
(09:13):
fifteen to twenty percent. Actually, what they need to do
is get their sticky fingers out at any target and
let's just carry on with a fish and effective production. Jamie,
and look at the big picture here, because actually this
is just again a gross distraction and a gross waste
of money and a country that can't afford its own healthcare.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Jennie Jane Smith, North Otago farmer post a girl for
the Methane Science Accord. You never die wondering what Jane's
thinking up next, Michael Every two part interview with Rabobanks,
Singapore based global strategist. Before the end of the hour,
Prime Minister Christopher Luxen and Katie Milne, who, as I
(09:51):
said earlier on the show, broke the grass ceiling when
she became the first female president of Federated Farmers. This
is the best of the country. It's brought to you
by Rabobank.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
Love to watch you do Hurst.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
The best of the country with Rabobank, the bank with
local agribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities Rubbobank.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
He is Rabobank's Singapore based global strategist. His name is Michael.
Every love having him on the country. Michael. Yesterday we
saw the ninety day pause or the lifting of some
of Trump's Chinese tariffs. The result was the Dow Jones
going up nearly three percent. Is this the beginning of
the end for tariffs in the beginning of a bright
(10:38):
new world?
Speaker 5 (10:40):
No. I'm going to more detail if you want, but
I think knows a good answer to start with.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
So that's a pretty short answer. Explain why it is
such a definitive No.
Speaker 5 (10:50):
Well, you have to look at things in a broader perspective.
First of all, just to be boring and technical, we
still have a thirty percent tariff on China on top
of twenty five percent tariffs on two thirds of Chinese
goods legacy from the first Trump presidency and the Biden presidency.
So technically two thirds of the stuff going to the
(11:11):
US faces around a fifty five percent tariff. That's not
what you would call low by any standards. The fact
that it seems low in a way is a victory
for Trump. By having gone to such ludicrous extremes, what's
left now seems reasonable.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
Has Trump got a better deal than the Chinese? It's
only ten percent going the other wire? Or have I
got that wrong as well?
Speaker 5 (11:32):
No, no, you're right, only ten percent going the other way.
So he's got a better deal in the short term,
even though, of course people are saying that he folded.
And if you look at certain things the US have
said and done, I would say you can see they
have drawn dotted lines on things where folds could happen
in the future, but they haven't folded them yet. But
(11:55):
the bigger picture is not only that those tariffs are
still in place, but the US has said, look, they
go back up again if in ninety days we don't
get China to do what we want. And then it
comes back to the bigger picture perspective of who things
China can do what the US wants, And if you
look at what the US is demanding and if you
look at what China is prepared to supply, it's really
(12:16):
really hard, realistically to imagine that that deal can be done.
So if you're a cynic, you say, look the US
was facing empty shelves and inflation in the next couple
of months. And that's true because they were hoping China
would already have buckled, and it didn't. Now everyone's going
to rush like stink to resupply from China, to fill
(12:36):
their inventories sky high, to make sure this can't happen again.
And then when they've done that, the US will be
looking for a round two. I would think, one way
or another, or at least doing the same thing it
was doing up until now, but just more slowly, rather
than ripping the plaster off in one go. That strikes
me as still being far more logical than suddenly everyone
(12:57):
singing Kumbai around the campfire.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
Who currently has the stronger hand and the scheme of
strip poker?
Speaker 5 (13:04):
Oh wow, that's an interesting visual metaphor. I don't think
either of them have a very strong hand, because the
US doesn't make very much, obviously, and that's a real
problem when you don't get the stuff supplied to you
by China, and yet China doesn't have enough people to
buy the stuff or the profit margins they want to
set it out without the US. Technically, the US are
(13:25):
correct that in historical terms, whoever is the person who's
buying the stuff has the whip hand. The customer is
always right at the end of the day. The problem
is in the interim. If China just says we are
prepared to suffer the pain of not supplying you with
anything until you sweat it out, you know more than
we do. You can see that the US does have
(13:45):
to blink on that front. But as I said, if
they now restock, if every retailer in the US is right,
let's get in loads and loads of inventory, they're in
a better position to then restart this whole circus in August.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
What happened to thrive and twenty five?
Speaker 5 (14:03):
I don't even know what that is.
Speaker 3 (14:04):
It's the saying you've got to survive twenty four and
thrive and twenty five. As in twenty twenty five the
world economy was going to come right. Then Trump came
along with the terifs.
Speaker 5 (14:14):
Ah, Yeah, well that was said by idiots. To be honest,
I think the version of it that I heard in
markets was stay alive till twenty five. But really, you know,
to make a serious point alongside the flippant one I
just made. If that is from a financial market perspective
where I work, you're trading strategy to stay alive and
everything will be better next year. You're in the wrong
(14:35):
job because you haven't understood anything that led to the
volatility that we saw in twenty twenty four. And I
warned explicitly again and again and again in every fourum
I have, including this one of course, with gratitude, that
we were going to have a really rocky road in
twenty five. I called it the year of living dangerously.
I was very explicit about that, and I said, the
(14:57):
people thinking everything was going to be right just because
it was a new year, well it's about as useful
as the tooth fairy and trying to make predictions that
the reality was always deeply, deeply concerning. And we've seen
exactly that play out.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
Can New Zealand thrive and other markets to counter Trump's
ten percent traffs currently imposed.
Speaker 5 (15:15):
On us, Well, the ten percent into the US is
really neither here nor there. I don't know anyone who's
seriously concerned about that. In the biggest scheme of things.
What's much much more important for New Zealand is a
process which will now be slowed down partially by what
was just agreed between the US and China this week
slowed down but in no way avoided, which is the
(15:36):
US pressurizing every other country to come to the table
and say, right, let's do a deal. Part of that
deal will be more slowly than maybe it would have
been before, but you are going to freeze China out
of your market. You are going to start a process
of gradual realignment of supply chains so that you deal
with the US block rather than China. That process, as
(15:56):
far as I'm concerned as a global strategist, is still
absolutely logs unloaded.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
Michael Avery with US Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist and
part two of this interview. Let's have a look at
what's the best business to be in food or munitions?
Speaker 1 (16:12):
The best of the country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience, Grow with Rubbobank.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
Welcome back to the country, and welcome back Michael Every
Rabobanks Singapore based global strategists. As I teased before the break,
what's the best business to be in food or munitions
in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 5 (16:34):
Wow, you're not really giving me much of a choice.
If there's the only table that's literally what you call it,
guns or butter, choice, isn't it, As we used to
say in political terms, I actually think food in one respect,
one key respect here. First of all, you have to
have food. You don't have to have guns, although at
the moment of course everybody wants guns. But another key
(16:54):
one which people are overlooking, which is this Right now,
everyone's very gung ho about the military sexor and I
think right, I've been arguing that for years. But if
you're talking about producing the stuff, and if you're talking
about holding shares, you know, equity in that kind of sector,
you have to remember that once national security gets involved,
which it is, big profits aren't allowed. There's a word
(17:18):
for people and companies that make really mega profits by
selling things to the state that they need in an emergency,
and it's called profiteering. And I don't know if you
have any personal memory of how profiteering used to be
treated during things like World War Two, but it involves
bullets and not as gifts. So if that's going to
be the case, I would imagine that if we have
(17:38):
to rearm a lot more, it's going to be a
lot lower profit margins with the government saying this is
too important for people to make a lot of money doing.
I don't see that happening in food. I can see
food being propped up by the state in various different
ways if necessary, and hopefully judiciously in terms of you know,
key things like infrastructure, but you still need to actually
make a return on farming to do it. So between
(18:01):
the two, you know, someone who likes markets food, not guns.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
We're always on a state of turmoil here on planet Earth.
We've got Russia, the Ukraine, Israel, Hamas now India versus
Pakistan on the doomsday clock sort of scenario. Is this
the most unsettled we've been since I don't know, the
Cuban missile crisis of the early nineteen sixties.
Speaker 5 (18:24):
Well, we have had a couple of very big wars,
you know, in the past couple of decades, involving Iraq,
of course, which had a lot more death and destruction
than we're currently seeing. But in terms of the breadth
of the problem and the structural depth of the problem,
not in any one geography, but just in terms of
the entire picture we're looking at. Yes, because as you've
(18:46):
heard me say many times, over the years, Jamie, the
entire global architecture that we built post Cold War is
crumbling around us, absolutely crumbling. You might not feel it
on a farm in New Zealand day in, day out,
but I can assure you lots of people and other
geographies are and in fact, interestingly, if you look at
all the places you just listed and some of the
others that are on the you know, unfortunately on the
(19:08):
short list to be joining them, all of them are
key pivot points in terms of where we think global
trade flows or the borders of new global trade blocks
will sit. And that is not a coincidence in any way,
shape or form.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
Who impresses you on the world stage? Now, I know
Sakia Starmer doesn't impress British farmers one iota, but he
seems to be making himself felt on the world stage.
Could he be, then, you diplomat.
Speaker 5 (19:38):
No, let's go back to the short answer that I
review go on, I very much doubt it. You have
to basically start with a strong base at home. Now
he's got a very very strong one in terms of
his position in Parliament, that's undeniable. But if you actually
look at where he is in the opinion polls right now,
it's very low and almost every policy that he appears
to be putting forward at the moment going down like
(20:00):
a lead balloon. So it's not that he isn't trying.
He's certainly doing what many prime ministers and presidents do
when they're on a sticky wicket, which is, let's try
and look good internationally to build a bit of kudos domestically.
But it's honestly really going down like a lead balloon so.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
Far, okay, So it just boils down to Trump versus
Shi Jingping.
Speaker 5 (20:21):
Well, Putin's in the mix too, and I wouldn't rule
out India's Modi Prime Minister Modi very powerful figure who's
certainly capable of implementing enormous changes depending on what he
decides to do. And even with Trump there in the
next few hours, the Prince Muhammad bin Salman in Saudi Arabia.
He's really a mover and shaker getting things done. So
(20:41):
there are people out there that really can shift things,
but not as many of them are the traditional European
or Anglo Saxon talking heads you know that we're used
to from the past. This is a different world now.
We have to listen to a broader variety of people.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
Could a Chicago born American pope get trumped?
Speaker 5 (21:00):
Calm the farm, Calm the farm.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
It's another New Zealand saying.
Speaker 5 (21:06):
Okay, I like one. I haven't heard that. Well. I
don't really think Trump listens to popes or priests that much.
I think it was entertaining in terms of a headline
to actually have a made in America pope, just when
we've got all the issue of tariffs going around, and
that we've got white smoke on the pope and on
the rumored US China trade deal which came out on
(21:27):
Monday on the same day. So there's a bit of
a divine intervention there perhaps, But I don't think the
Pope himself is going to be directing, you know, any
kind of policy for the US, be it geopolitical or trade.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Hey, on a lighter note, just to finish, Trump accepting
the seven four seven jumbo jet from the Katari royal
family worth nearly seven hundred million dollars. Of course he'd accepted,
He said, you'd be stupid not to.
Speaker 5 (21:52):
Well, yeah, they offered me one. I'd take one too.
I don't necessarily think that it's completely appropriate, although it
is apparently a more nuanced argument than it's being presented
by some, but nonetheless not a good look and you know,
looks very important. But that's not actually the craziest headline
they've had today. It's actually yesterday last night. We got
it quite late here in Asia. The Trump is apparently
going to meet the president of Syria today or he
(22:16):
may do, that's the rumor. Who is a former al
Qaeda member, So that shows how the world is changing.
But the rumor is that the president of Syria is
offering to build Trump Tower in Damascus, where we still
have massacres going on in the suburbs. So it doesn't
mean he's going to go along with it. But you know,
it's a wacky world of sports out there at the moment.
It really is.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
We live in the crazy world. Michael Every, Rabobank, Singapore
based global strategist, Love your time, love you work here
on the country.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
Thank you the best of the country with Rabobank. Choose
the bank with the huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Ravo Bank.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
Good morning New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This is the
best of the country. It's brought to you by Rabobank.
We're growing a bit of New Zealand again. How good
was Michael Every, Singapore based global strategist Up next on
the Best of the Country, Prime Minister Krista Bluxen, a
regular on Wednesday's show, and Katie Milne West Coast Kowcocky
former or the first female president of Federated Farmers Hey.
(23:16):
Just on the subject of rabobank, then there are graduate
programs open. Applications for the twenty twenty six intake are
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(23:37):
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(23:59):
for or minimum balance. Also find out more about that
at rabobank dot Co dot in z up next to
the Prime Minister, the.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
Best of the Country with Rubbobank, the bank with local
agribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities Rubbo Bank.
Speaker 3 (24:17):
Wednesday's on the Country, The Big Guy, the PM kicks
off the show. Here's a question Christopher Luxen from our
Shanghai based correspondent Hunter McGregor on yesterday's show, He's disappointed
that you haven't been or fronted up in China yet
with a trade delegation.
Speaker 5 (24:34):
Why not, Well, I just say, watched this space.
Speaker 6 (24:37):
It's imminent as a trip to China. It's something I've
been looking forward to doing for a long time. It's
obviously country. In my former life with Unilever and uni
Zeana did a lot of business in as well, and
it's a really important relationship for us, and I think
there's huge opportunity in trade for us to continue to
deepen up those connections in China. So I'm really looking
forward to taking great delegation to China. It'll be announced
(24:59):
very short we do. The announcements is pretty close to
the time because of for security reasons. For different reasons,
for the different president and Premier of China as much
as for me, and so to watch the space.
Speaker 3 (25:11):
As Trump would say, it will be a great delegation,
a beautiful delegation, the beginning of the end of Trump's
tariffs or is that just wishful thinking from me? Oh?
Speaker 6 (25:20):
Look, I think he's campaigned very strongly in the campaign
around tariff is an idea you're obviously seeing America. You
use it in a way that they want to to
advance their interests. You know. The good news for New
Zealand is that, you know, there's no country that's better
off than New Zealand at this point. And that's our
expectation our exporters when I check him with them each week,
(25:43):
I check them with quite a few of them each
if we week, to see how it's all going. They
just see still huge opportunity in North America. So you know,
we keep monitoring it. We've got our officials talking to
the government administration. Todd mcclay's due to meet with the
Trade Secretary very next month as well and have a
good conversation from there at a meeting. And so yeah,
(26:03):
so look, we keep monitoring really closely. But for us,
it's about New Zealand. We've got huge opportunity. We've got
rapidly growing middle classes. We've got great products to sell
to the world. We just got to get out and
follow our own plan.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
You know how we have trouble getting you places like
on our air force planes. Has any kind of Middle
Eastern country with the dodgy human rights record offered you
an airplane, even a Cessna, it might get you there
on time.
Speaker 6 (26:30):
Oh look, Jamie, I really appreciate your help with the
airplane situation. But look that hasn't been and off of
that's been executed to us. We'll continue battling away using
what we've got.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
Now there's a ground swell, no pun intended out there
to get us out of Paris. Now, it's coming from
the likes of ground Swell, methane science accord in z
Farming one of the biggest social media platforms for rural
New Zealand behind the country of course, what do you
say to those farmers? Why should they stay there because
you're Northland MP Grant mcnasal McCullum has taken a pasting
(27:05):
on this show for standing up for Paris.
Speaker 6 (27:09):
Yeah, well look, I mean you may not like it.
To hear this because it's very easy to dump to
simplistic solutions, right or what you think is a simplistic solution,
But just just take a step back and think about it.
I mean, and this is what I hear from farmers
up and down the country, and they understand this. I'm
acting brutally in New Zealand's national interest. I don't want
to punish farmers. Pulling us out of Paris would punish
farmer a big time because I'm telling you right now,
(27:30):
the large multinationals, many that are as big as New
Zealand as a country, we'd just say now I'm looking
for an excuse to get out of that New Zealand
product and get rid of it. And I can tell
you many countries. I'm thinking about many European I know
we'd love nothing more than to see New Zealand gairy products,
red meat and everything kicked off the shelves. And they'd
use that as a nontower barrier to essentially do that.
(27:51):
So it's in New Zealand's national interests. I'm not there
to punish. I don't want to punish farmers. We're not
sending production offshore. We are do we are acting. It's
in our brutal national interests to be part of that
agreement because I'm telling you and go talk to people
who know what will happen is you can sit there
and say, oh, this is this is the right solution
(28:11):
as well, and as though yeah, we're great, when we
lose a whole bunch of distribution in Europe and other
parts of the world because we've pulled out and I
tell you countries, there are countries that we compete with
that would love nothing more than to put our product
from the Netherlands, from Denmark all through Western Europe rather
than have New Zealand product there. We just grew trade
(28:33):
with Western Europe by a billion dollars in the last
twelve months. We just grew our exports to the UK
by twenty one percent in the last twelve months, and
that was farmers and your underwife, agricultures and a recovery.
It's because we're getting our product out there to the world.
And I'm telling you do that and you'll have a
lot less returns and farming will go down, and that's
(28:53):
not great.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
New Zealand will pass an economic milestone in twenty twenty
eight when the government I EU if you're still there
as forecast to make its first ever withdrawal from the
New Zealand Super fun Prime Minister, are we flogging the
family silverware to pay for an unaffordable age of eligibility
for national Super. It would appear to me we are.
Speaker 6 (29:14):
Well, you know how we feel about it as national
You know, the reality is that every ten years New
Zealander's average life expectancy has been going up, I think
over over a year and a bit, so we think
that's why it makes sense. We've said that for a
long period of time. Bill English said that for a
long period of time we need to raise the average
age of Super. You know very strongly that in a
coalition government, New Zealand First has no support for that proposal.
(29:37):
In fact, Labour didn't I think support that proposal last
time last year as well. So you know, the reality
is we think it makes sense. New Zealanders are living longer,
they're living healthier our lives and actually lifting that age
of superannuation would be a good thing. That will continue
to advocate for that. If we can do that in
a future great Agreement, we'd love to do that. In
the meantime, we have a piece of legislation that says
(29:59):
this New Zealand Superannuation needs support. You've got to make
withdrawals from the superfund. So yes, that sort of bounces
around with some withdrawals and contributions. But actually from twenty
thirty one onwards, projections show that withdrawals from the super
fund are actually expected in each and every year, and
those withdrawals are made so that that then to cover
(30:19):
the costs as you say, of the his z own
superannuation schemes, that the taxpayers don't face that full cost
each year. So we have reached that tipping point. But
you're right, I mean, I think that's a great reason
for why we you know, we've tried to have the
conversation before, but this is the reality of it. It's
getting to a place where in twenty thirty one, yep,
we have to make those.
Speaker 3 (30:37):
Yeah, but I mean, Prime Minister, with all due respect,
why don't you just tell one stant to side off
because he's not likely to cuddle up to Labor to
party Maury and the Greens.
Speaker 6 (30:45):
Now, well, we'll have to see, because I mean that'll
be the comp you know, we will advocate for that
in the future. Government from twenty twenty six on once
We'll go to the market, you know, go to the
electric with that policy. Again, Labor opposed it, you know,
he's Zealand first to post it, so, you know, because
of the politics of it, and I just think that's
you're going to make some tough decisions, and the right
(31:06):
decision is actually say, yep, average life expectses increasing. It
makes complete sense the lest for two years, we can
do it in a sensible kind of way and the
cost of the systems getting increasingly unaffordable.
Speaker 3 (31:17):
Watch the space, Prime Minister, thanks for your time as always.
Speaker 6 (31:20):
Thanks Jamie, have a great week.
Speaker 1 (31:21):
The Best of the Country with Rubboback.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
Choose the Bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience Grow with Rubboback.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
Yesterday's conversation on the Country was all about the ruminant
methane survey from Groundswell, Methane Science, accord and enz farming.
Another conversation was whether we should be in or out
of Paris. I'm going to come back to that one.
But some interesting feedback I got on the show yesterday
via the text line came from Katie Milne West Coast
(31:50):
Dairy Farmer, former president of Federated Farmers, the woman who
broke the grass ceiling and Katie, you, for your sins,
had to go to one of those copcomfferences and you're
up in arms about us not using GWP STAR as
a measuring mechanism for methane.
Speaker 7 (32:08):
Yeah, actually, for my sins, I've been to two of them,
to be fair, but it was interesting. The first one
I went to was part of the New Zealand delegation
and the data and research had not too long been
out about global warming potential star versus global warming potential
one hundred, and that clearly showed that there was less
(32:29):
impact from methane and if you didn't add animals to
your system, you weren't increasing warming. That was put forward
by myself and others in conversations around the traps over there,
and why wouldn't this be accepted or when can this
be brought into the system, because it's a fair.
Speaker 4 (32:49):
Away, it's been pair reviewed and it.
Speaker 7 (32:51):
Does reflect properly what actually happens with warming, And to
my charge, in horror, a lot of people said, yep,
that's all good. It can come into the mix at
some stage, but it won't be till quite a few
years down the road because of the cyclical nature of
the cops and metrics will be done at that stage.
(33:12):
I think it's twenty nineteen, in about another seven years so,
And I just like flabbergacid. It's like, if you've got
cutting edge data research, it's peered reviewed and makes sense
and is accepted by the IPPC, why on Earth wouldn't
you put it through? Because aren't we after the best
results for the planet all around and for whatever industry
(33:34):
you're in, obviously or sector, but especially for farmers all
around the globe. This was a message that actually, if
you're doing things as efficiently as you can with your animals,
that's okay, and that's the.
Speaker 5 (33:48):
Direction you should go.
Speaker 7 (33:50):
So that it sort of really locked me for fix
actually that there was not a lot of interest in
pursuing it at any pace whatsoever.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
So if we use GWP are as a measuring mechanism,
the methane problem from ruminants basically disappears off the face
of the earth because there is no increased warming from animals.
But the counter argument to that one, and I'm only
playing Devil's advocate here, Katie, is people will the climate
change people will say a half of New Zealand's emissions
(34:20):
come from animals.
Speaker 7 (34:22):
Well, that's a thing to do with our per capita
and what our country is good at. Our animals are
still the most efficient. Our production system is the most
efficient for methane, you know, per kilogram of output on
the planet. So you know, you've got to balance up
what is actually happening to on the broader scheme of
(34:44):
things versus just actually New Zealand. Your number is high.
Why is it height? It's not because we've got industrial
car manufacturing and lots and lots and lots of coal
fired generation. We've got a little bit. We have this
grass seed beef and make milk which in land, which
everybody's looking for. If you go and look at what
(35:05):
trends are around the world for consumers, they're moving towards
that natural fed product hell for leather as fast as
they can get it because they are seeing that that
way is the way to go, and why not take
New Zealand product because it actually has a low carbon
footprint as well.
Speaker 3 (35:23):
Now you won't get an argument from me just on
the Paris Climate Agreement whether we should be in or
out and ground swallow jumping up and down about this one.
Right as we speak, they're starting a new campaign on
this one. I know you didn't hear them, but Christopher
Luxon said on the show earlier, if we pull out
a Paris European countries are going to kick us to
touch and it's going to cost farmers of fortune.
Speaker 7 (35:46):
Well, that will be an interesting one to see because
it's I hope he's absolutely wrong because our product is
top notch all those things, as we know. But when
people go around the globe and talk to people, your
average punter doesn't talk about that at all. And the
Paris Agreement did say you have to protect food security
in the process of trying to reduce your emissions, so
(36:08):
you know, we know about emission's leakage. If we don't
do it, someone else picks it up and they don't
do it as efficiently, so overall it's a net lost
for the planet. But yeah, I know people and myself
when I've traveled around you talk to consumers, they want
food security and maybe there's a tiny, tiny, tiny few
points zero zero one that look at the carbon and
(36:31):
go yep, you've got to have this number right. But again,
we haven't told the story properly. We just get in
an echo chamber when we go to those sort of talks.
I feel, and we played the orchestra that's singing at
the time, which is you have to reduce your number,
regardless of what it means. So we really have to
(36:52):
get our story out there better. And we all hear
that all the time, but it's the truth.
Speaker 3 (36:57):
We need to take them on our journey. Katie, I
hate that word. Hey, how are things on the West Coast?
Just to finish on house your season winding up? If
you dried up, dried up? Try it off yet, Katie.
Speaker 7 (37:09):
We haven't. We haven't quite dried off yet. It's been
a cracker second half. First half was too wet, it
went dry straight away. But it's been very, very mild,
and so we've only had a couple of frosts in
May and the grass is still checking over, you know,
starting to slow off as the sunshine hours drop. But
you know, it's looking pretty good for us, so we'll
(37:30):
take it every time.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
Oh Katie, I'll leave you to go away and ponder
what you're going to do with all your money this season.
Always enjoy your input to the country and thanks for listening.
Yesterday all good, Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 1 (37:41):
The best of.
Speaker 2 (37:42):
The Country with Rabobank Choose the Bank with a huge
network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 3 (37:48):
Rabobank Katie Melon, first female president of Federated Farmer Smart Woman,
are wrapping the best of the country. Good morning, My
name's Jamie McKay. Each Saturday morning. This show is brought
to you by Rabobank, Ryan Fox, go you good thing
at the PGA Championship and Mowana Pacifica. Can the dream continue?
(38:11):
Let's hope so tonight up against the Blues. I'll catch
you back, same time, same place next Saturday morning. I'm
gonna leave you with my favorite Bob Seeger and the
Silver Bullet Band song. This is Firelake Joe.
Speaker 8 (38:27):
You remember on the Joe You have a lot of
friend to cout. The Keys Town sound shows off by.
Speaker 9 (38:52):
Shows wants to grave those brine mutants lying in the
sun with the long soft.
Speaker 8 (39:08):
Tail fall flying as they were.
Speaker 9 (39:14):
The lot that style, so shine.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
That flirt so well, and then leaning down so fast.
Speaker 8 (39:23):
Till you look straight up and.
Speaker 1 (39:24):
See, Oh lord, am I very hear?
Speaker 8 (39:30):
And now.
Speaker 1 (39:34):
You lost to play?
Speaker 8 (39:35):
Those skates and aces walls are raising.
Speaker 1 (39:43):
Who needs a snake.
Speaker 9 (39:50):
Wants the chick down, lost shot camper, and and I
the fire.
Speaker 8 (40:00):
I didn't that how.
Speaker 9 (40:07):
Vile the data f the data.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
Vanda.
Speaker 4 (40:28):
It was a by
Speaker 8 (40:35):
What's going to do
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