May 27, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Christopher Luxon, Cameron Bagrie, Bruce Thorrold, Dr Jacqueline Rowarth, and Blair McLean.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckaye Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment, Live Lender.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Get a New Zealand. Good afternoon, Welcome to the Country.
I'm Jamie McKay Shows brought to you by Brent James Bond.
Theme today will tell you why are we later? Going
to kick it off with the Prime Minister. Caught up
with them a a bit earlier this morning fronts up
on the Country after standing the hosskarup on Monday. Cameron
bagri independent economists. We missed him yesterday, going to nail
(00:52):
them today. Very important day. It's o CR day, two o'clock.
The Reserve Bank or the Interim Reserve Bank governor. We'll
dropped the ocr by twenty five basis points. Everyone's figured
that one out, but how many more drops have we got?
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Left?
Speaker 2 (01:09):
As neutral? Three percent or two point seventy five percent.
Also get Cameron's thoughts on the budget, including the investment
tax boost. Bruce Thurrelt darien Z's Chief science advisor, fascinating
piece on forty years of change in the dairy industry.
Doctor Jack Willin Rowath and Blair McLean, our viticulture correspondent.
(01:33):
What are we going to do with the grape glut?
So we'll talk a wee bit of wine before the
end of the hour as well. It's all on the
Country and it's all brought to you by brand A
PM to kick off proceedings next.
Speaker 4 (01:48):
But if this ever change in world in which we
live in makes liver Let.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Wednesdays on the Country. The Prime Minister kicks off the
show today. He's got off his death bed to chat
to us. Wasn't fit enough to talk to the hosk
on Monday. He's still sulking about that. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
Speaker 5 (02:19):
Well you can't talking to Jamie McKai right. I mean
it's absolutely fantastic. So no good to be with you, mate.
Seeing much better. I just had a bit of a
rough Sunday of Monday.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
So but we're back in the said all, which is good.
Speaker 5 (02:30):
So I'm been out selling the budget yesterday and today,
so I think there's been good reaction to it or
it's too funk.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
I'm going to come back to the budget, especially some
of the talk around your investment allowance or investment boost.
Have you read in the Herald today an interesting story
about Jim Bolger, who's about to turn ninety, and I'll
tell you what he said, Luxeon should tell Seymour to
shut up. He said, Winston's doing a good job and
he wants the age of national super to go to seventy.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
Well, listen, I wishn't ma happy birthday. I was talking
to Bill Birch last week and I know he's coming
down to celebrate Jim's birthday as well. But look, I
think coalition government. You know, we're halfway through the term.
I think we've worked incredibly well. It's the first time
you've had a three party coalition. We're very united on
the core stuff. Obviously there's differences in different party policies,
but you know, the vast majority of what we're focused
(03:21):
on is about growth, growth, growth, again, the country moving,
and I'm focusing on what key he's interested in. So
I think, you know, I enjoy working with both.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
You know, he's saying that you should tell Seymour to
shut up over MARI issues. Mainly he says Winston's doing
a good job. Do you need to tell Winston to
shut up? When it comes to the age of eligibility
for national super because this is becoming a real national
debate discussion argument at the moment.
Speaker 6 (03:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (03:47):
Look, I mean there's some things we're doing through the
budget around you know, resetting key, we save a contribution rates,
which I think.
Speaker 6 (03:53):
Is really good.
Speaker 5 (03:54):
That'll be build bigger retirement savings. But I do think,
you know, we do have differences. You know, we've had
a strong stand, long standing policy we think we should
list the age of retirement from sixty five to sixty seven.
The reason's pretty simple. Every ten years New Zealanders live
another year and a bit of life expectancy, which is great.
And you know, as many people would know out there
working in the workforce at sixty seven plus so and
(04:16):
want to continue to work so and other countries have
already moved to a pathway to sixty seven from sixty five,
so you know, but equally, we don't have political consensus
on it. Labour's dead set against it. New Zealand first
is dead set against it. So I suspect we'll go
to the election in twenty six with different party policies
on that point. And then you know, in our MMP
system we form coalition governments based off the result that
(04:38):
people give us on election night and then we have
to make it work. And that means in this case
we don't have agreement on that issue and we're unable
to progress it. But I think, you know, ultimately we
have to ask the question because the cost of superannuation
and the number of working new zeonder is supporting those
that are retired is changing over time. But you know,
we have a national party policy on that, which is
we think we should find a pot.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Absolutely, the population bell curve is work against you there.
Look the wash up from the budget. I think when
you turn up at field Days you'll be greeted with
glee from some of the exhibitors there because we're already
hearing anecdotally there's a rush on youtes, there's a rush
on tractors. So I think field Days is going to
be very positive off the back of your investment tax boost.
Speaker 5 (05:21):
This is something I wanted to do for some time,
even before I got to politics, because you know, when
you look at what actually accelerates growth, it's the adoption
of more capital, more equipment, more technology, and so this
is an incentive for people to say, look, I was
think you're buying that new tractor. In fact, I was
talking to a farmer in South Canterbury who was actually
just digested the policy and was actually planning this week
(05:43):
to go off and actually sort of buy a header
and attractor at the same time. They didn't thoughty do
the tractor, but thought based off this moving, you know,
you could write off twenty percent of the asset in
the first year. That was actually going to move the
cash flow analysis to make it actually a positive thing
to do, so, you know, and it's with manufacturers yesterday
in small medium enterprise, a couple hundred employees are producing
(06:04):
electrical stuff and you know, there's huge opportunity to buy
the equipment that's five times more productives and the equipment
that they've got in their factory at the moment. So
all of that's designed to improve the productivity of New Zealand,
to lift our living standards and our income. So yeah,
I'm really excited about that's gone down a tree.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
A final question for you. We had Mark Leslie, chief
executive of PARMU, on the show yesterday. He was pretty
unconvincing in defending Parmu's actions when it comes to carbon farming.
They're planting a lot of trees. Mark would argue they're
planting the right tree in the right place. But when
you see a very high functioning so I'm told pastoral
(06:42):
livestock station, Munga Mingy Station and Rapaou are going almost
all into trees. This is flying in the face of
what you're trying to do, isn't it.
Speaker 5 (06:50):
Well, as you know, we've campaigned on limits on farm
conversions and we have legislation in place this year, and
then we backdated to the fourth of December last year,
so particularly on a ban on luc one to six farmlanders,
you know. So you know, as I understand that Palma
have got quite a lot of Class six or seven land.
I thought from memory when I last looked at it
(07:11):
was maybe fifteen percent of their land was in Class
six and seven. And so forestry on those for those
purposes sort of you can sort of buy. Obviously Palm
has sort of both researching commercial.
Speaker 6 (07:22):
Goals, but.
Speaker 5 (07:24):
We expect it to utilize its land for the highest
and best use. And they you know, palmeus irons and
wouldn't be supporting carbon only farming, as in locking it
up and leaving it. The revenue that they've made on
carbon should be used for additional investments in technologies and
fencing requirements and all sorts of other.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
And and that's all fine and dandy, But some of
that Class seven land they're planting in pine trees, I
put it to you it may be uneconomic to harvest
that in twenty or thirty years time.
Speaker 5 (07:52):
Yeah, well, I mean they shouldn't be just supporting carbon
only farming, which is they're locking up and leaving it.
Speaker 6 (07:58):
They actually know.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
They're not doing that. They're saying they're not doing that,
But I'm just putting it to you. I don't think
they're setting a good example from the government's point of view.
Speaker 5 (08:08):
Yeah, well, I mean our policy is pretty clear and
we would expect them ultimately to follow that policy too.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Obviously, Prime Minister Chris Luxon always good to catch up
with you on the country on a Wednesday.
Speaker 5 (08:18):
Likewise, Jamie, you gave a great Weeklive a Leader.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Yes, the Prime Minister from earlier this morning, what do
you reckon? Is he right about Pamu? Should PAMU be
leading by example on this one? Let us know on
five double O nine, Michelle, thank you for bringing me
a cup of tea. We don't run a misogynoust show here.
I did buy you a coffee earlier this morning. This
(08:45):
is quid pro quo the bomb theme? What have we
done there? Wise?
Speaker 7 (08:49):
That Ian Fleming's birthday today.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Jamie as he dead.
Speaker 8 (08:53):
He died in nineteen sixty four, so while the James
Wand movies were going, he would have passed on.
Speaker 7 (08:57):
But of course this is a liven Lit Die Wings.
Can't he great? Sound? Great movies?
Speaker 2 (09:02):
Have you got some Shirley Bassie in there?
Speaker 7 (09:03):
I definitely have Shirley Bessie and.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
A bit of Jurane Juranne and Tom Jones. I think
didn't the dal do one recently?
Speaker 7 (09:09):
Yeah? She did Aline Skyfall quite a while ago.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Yeah, and then Billy Billy Eilish Sam Smith Smith I
love the Bond movies. I will say the Bond movies
are better than the Tom Cruise Mission Impossible movies. I
went to that on Sunday night with the program director
and it was a long two hours and fifty minutes,
not because I was sitting beside the program director, but
(09:34):
because it's just too long for a movie.
Speaker 7 (09:36):
That's way too long for it it is, And the.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
Bond movies like one hour fifties about the sweet Spot
up next to Cameron bagriy, will the Reserve Bank governor,
the acting Reserve Bank governor find the sweet spot for
the ocr We'll ask Cameron next, expect that announcement. It's
two o'clock this afternoon. What did this change? Well, which
(10:01):
we live in.
Speaker 4 (10:14):
Letty Go? Where are the heart?
Speaker 3 (10:19):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (10:19):
See our announcement time this afternoon at two pm. The
new or the fill in Reserve Bank governor, what's his name,
Christian Hawksby. I think we'll make the announcement. We all
know it's a drop of twenty five basis points, but
Cam Bagrey independent economists. The big question is is the
one or two more cuts after this is neutral? Three
percent or two point seventy five percent? Good afternoon.
Speaker 9 (10:43):
Oh, there's a little bit of I guess conjecture about
where neutral is where. What we know is that we're
getting into that sort of zone where monetary pilot policies
neither got the foot on the accelerator or the break,
which is sort of where you want to be when
you've got inflation under control all around two percent. We
know the economy there's a recovering, but it's still pretty weak.
(11:06):
There's going to be a decent injection from the dairy
sector over the extra twelve months, which will be encouraging.
But yeah, the inflation story as well is a little
bit too sided on some levels. When you've got weak demand,
there's no pricing powers. The construction prices are being trimmed.
It's tough in the retail land as well. But there's
other parts of the economy that are just not economically sensitive.
(11:28):
We're seeing pretty big inflation increases. You look at local
authority rates, you look at metal insurance, you look at
your gas, you look at your electricity bill. I just
see ports of walk and just put some whopping charges
into the freight industry as well, which are consumers are
going to end up paying down the pipeline.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
Let's move on to the budget. Well, last week's budget
the investment boost tax credit effectively an additional twenty percent
depreciation to be able to be claimed in year one.
This is going to be a real kickstart, I would
think for productivity.
Speaker 9 (12:00):
Well, potentially, I think it's going to be a pretty
big kick staff with some vehicle sales, and potentially a
few tractors are going to go out the door at
field dose because if you're front loading that sort of
tax deduction up front, it's a excuse to scrum a
little bit in regard to what you're going to spend
it on. Yeah, but if you're commercial buildings are included
(12:23):
in it as well, which will sort of scratch my
head over that one. The real big productivity kicker if
we can get the dial turning on your plant, machinery
and equipment and some of that on farm investment outside
of the vehicles. So I watched the space in regard
to where the people said to take it up move forward.
(12:45):
Some sectors you've got cash flow at the moment that
take advantage of that, but cash is still pretty tight
across the rest of the economy.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Yeah, you're right about commercial buildings. That's an interesting choice
because effectively that's not an appreciating asset like a tractor
or a truck.
Speaker 9 (13:00):
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, those things tend to have tended to appreciate. Yeah,
Largely driven drive construction costs you at a replacement value
of the items. We'll just see where it goes. Is
it going to magically turn the dial on New Zealand's
productivity story? The answer is none. Well, how around the edges, Yeah,
the answer is yes.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
One to finish on because I know that Brad Olsen
from Infometrics and Heather Duplessly Allen had a good scrap
on this one last night on ZB the age of
eligibility for National Super. I'm a pensioner now CAAM. I
get paid National Super, also get a winter energy payment.
I'm still working, I'm well paid. I don't need it.
I'm putting mine to a good use other than myself.
(13:43):
But the thing is, it is surely an entitlement. You
say it's not because I'm happy to wait till I'm
sixty seven. But when I'm sixty seven, I want my
entoldment because I think I've earned it.
Speaker 6 (13:57):
Well.
Speaker 9 (13:58):
I guess there's different in two repretations over what's the
role of government in regard to supporting sport, support of communities.
And my view is that the wealthiest debate, which is
a critical part in ZOND. It's a critical safety net.
We need to have it in place. But it's there
for the needy. It's not there for the greedy. You
(14:19):
those that have done well. It's a safety debt to
help people out in there in need. I think it's
a critical part of New Zeon's institutional, economic and social framework.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
But under your scenario, Cameron, aren't you punishing effectively people
who have worked hard all their lives, paid lots of
taxes with a view to having that benefit to enjoy
in their retirement. Does this incentivize people to do.
Speaker 9 (14:46):
Less well at the margin? Right? But I don't think
you're going to be making your decisions in your twenties
to thirties. You're working year years based on what you've
found in New Zeon's superannuation titlement could be at the
age of sixty four the sixty seven. But the bottom line, though,
is Jamie, is that the status quo is not sustainable. Yeah,
(15:07):
so you can go back and have a look at
the long term fiscal projections you have the last time
Treasury did the statement in the long term fiscal position.
If left unchecked, the current state is quot and it's
a combination of musical superannuation and health expenditure. Is where
you get ready whacked. If left unchecked, I e. We
continue with the status quo. Net government debt is going
(15:28):
to go to one hundred and eighty percent of GDP
in the next thirty to forty years. So what are
the choices.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Totally get that, but is it sustainable at sixty seven
years of age or do we eventually, as Jim Bolger
has suggested, move it to seventy.
Speaker 9 (15:43):
Well, yeah, presumably as life expectancy moves up, you'd expect
to turn the dial a little bit on New Zealand
superannuation in tottlement. I think there's other options we can
look at as well. You say, you've done really well
in your life, You've been paid a lot of money
and you've got a pretty Chemisaver balance. Why on earth
should the innuity income that you draw off your Chemisab
(16:07):
balance not be taken off uniusal on supercation entitlement, which
is effectively means testing, and we've already got them. We've
potentially got the mechanism in place. If you ever look
at a couple of things we saw within the budget.
There was element of means testing which is coming through
for those eighteen nineteen year old kids that are on
(16:28):
a benefit. If they're living at home and their family's
got the means to support them, you're wished the government.
There was a means testing theme that came through with Chemisaber.
If you're earning over a certain amount of money, the
gun's not going to give you one thousand bucks. Okay,
your means testing is an area where I think we're
going to need to see a lot more of because
the alternative is given spending presses, taxes are going to
(16:50):
go up.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
And no one wins. Then hey, Cameron Bagray, it's a
really interesting debate slash discussion. I'm sure it will continue,
especially into the next election. Thanks for your time, always
appreciate it here on the country and I'll see you
at field days.
Speaker 6 (17:05):
Looking forward to it.
Speaker 9 (17:06):
I'll just drive it up from Hamilton this Morner God.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
Thanks Cameron. Is twenty seven after twelve, you're with the country.
Lots of feedback coming. And just before I forget, we're
broadcasting from the Westpac building one block north of the
Octagon here in Dunedin. I look across the road and
I see outside the A n Z Bank a whole
lot of protesters. I wonder how many of them have
(17:30):
got jobs? Or I shouldn't be so facetious anyhow. The
irony of this, Michelle, as they're out there protesting against
global warming on a pretty cold Dunedin day. So as
Shane Jones having a crack at these guys.
Speaker 8 (17:43):
Yeah, he mentioned this protest in his budget speech I think,
and said he was going to be out with his
megaphone in Wellington yesterday, but he didn't arrive.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
Apparently, so I've got a good luck to the protesters.
I'm a cold Dunedin day. They're I'm creating climate crime
scenes and performing theater outside an Z entertainment for us. No,
I think I'd sooner play golf and watch them protest
against the global warming and climate change. Everyone to their own, Okay,
(18:12):
some of your feedback on Christopher Luxen and PAMU. The
loss of Mungamingy's station is nothing short of vandalism. Rights
a Texter, I sure they're in my youth. I E
a sharer and every year that farm and this is
what I'm hearing, pumped out tens of thousands of quality
(18:32):
lambs on hundreds of good carves at provided work not
just for the staff but for a multitude of contractors.
PAMU should be broken up if they're going to destroy
the assets we trust them with, Hi, Jamie, how many
ums and urs did the PMSA when trying to defend
(18:53):
woke POMU PAMU planting pines, says John and here's an
interesting one. Keep them coming up on five double oh nine,
oh jea, They are coming and they're coming in big time.
My screen slipping on me, but I wanted to get
this one out why. Cato University study of twenty twenty one,
according to the texture shows as temperatures increase, carbon fixing
(19:15):
by trees reducers, and if temperature goes up enough, trees
will produce more CO two than they absorb. Carbon farming
could become a disaster. While I've got news for you, Texter,
it already is a disaster. Up next, Bruce Thorold from
Dairy en Z. Haven't chatted to this bloke, it seems
(19:47):
for Ages always enjoyed his company on the country, probably
back in the farming show days as well. Bruce Thorold
these days is the chief Science Advisor for Dairy and
Zy Bruce, along with the chief executive, Ample Parker. You
guys have released today You're one hundred Talking Dairy podcast.
I'm going to have a look at this one because
(20:08):
you're going way back in time and I love this
stat of nineteen eighty five, the average herd size was
one hundred and forty seven cows. And believe it or not.
If you had more than three hundred cows in your herd,
you could go to the Large Herds Association conference. Times
have changed, Bruce.
Speaker 6 (20:26):
Yeah, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
When I went back and did those numbers, I actually
couldn't believe it, which just shows you how your memory
plays tricks on you, because I only had the three
hundred number of my mind. But if you'd ask me,
I'd said, the average farm is probably about two hundred
and fifty cows.
Speaker 6 (20:41):
And yeah, you go and check the stats. No turnament
cows per hectare you know?
Speaker 3 (20:47):
One hundred and one hundred and forty odd cows is
the average herd size. So yeah, we've come a long
way since then.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Well, nineteen eighty five, I was a young struggling sheep
farmer in a town called Riversdale and Southland, Bruce, and
there was no There wasn't a dairy cow on site.
I think the first ones came in in the early nineties.
We all thought they were mad. Now the place is
dominated by dairy cows.
Speaker 6 (21:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
Well, ninety eighty five, I was a young scientist working
in Rhoda, just at the same time that rogernomics starts
to shake up the science funding system, and we started
to move towards usipays and the pressure started going on
the sector, which was which led us to During Research
Corporation in nineteen eighty two. So yeah, the landscape is
(21:32):
as different from a whole lot of perspectives.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Okay, back in nineteen eighty five, you've gone to the
trouble of doing the numbers, so let's run through the
last of them. There were two point three million dairy cows.
What have we got now? Five or six or just
under six, isn't it.
Speaker 6 (21:46):
Milking cows were at about four and a half.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
I think, now, all right, I've got to brush up
on my numbers. Sorry, Bruce.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
So yeah, but yeah, big huge growth growth and all
the expansion through the South Island and parts of the
North Island. So yeah, you know, we're making a lot
more milk and bigger force in the economy anywhere else
than we were forty years ago.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
You and I were talking in the commercial break before
going to air, and we were talking about Southland and
what a terrible, terrible spring Southland had had. And I
said to you off hand and an off hand manner, perhaps,
I said, well, Bruce, that's better than a drought. Like
the North Island farmers have suffered. You said, maybe not
tell me your thinking on that.
Speaker 3 (22:32):
So I've got an interest in a dairy farm in
the southern Waiketo in r nteenth Country, which is used
to be regarded as summer safe and these days nowhere
near it. So we were probably the driest of the
Waikato this season. There's pretty much no rain material rain
(22:53):
from the end of January until sort of mid April.
But we're ready for those.
Speaker 6 (22:59):
Sort of droughts now up here, you know. Two seven,
two thousand.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
And eight was was a bit of a shambles. Three
years later we had a worse drought and it was
almost like nobody noticed, you know. So we've got better
at at feedbuffers, better at decision making, and yeah, if
you ask me, would I rather have three months of wet,
miserable spring weather pugging up every paddock or three months
(23:24):
of drought where I've got an inch heir, feeder and
feed contracts and the ability to handle demand.
Speaker 6 (23:29):
I'll take the drought.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
Hate Bruce talking about pugging up paddocks. I think one
of the real changes, and change is much needed and
much for the better, is wintering practice is They're still
not perfect, don't get me wrong there, but gee, we've
done a lot to improve them, especially in the South
where dairy cattle are being wintered often on fighter crops.
Speaker 6 (23:52):
Yeah, this is a huge success story I think for
the sector.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Jamie and how science and farmers and you know, the
regulators have work together to get to good practice. You know,
if I think back fifteen years, there were some pretty
boddy dodgy practices going on, and you know, we did
a lot of work with farmers research through the P
twenty one program, looking at buffer strips, looking at the
(24:18):
order in which you grazed your paddict, looking at slope
where you put bails, and then you work with farmers
to go here are the risk points, how are you
going to manage on your farm? And big changes in practice.
And my recollection is a couple of years ago the
Regional Council did a flyover in Southland. They spotted five
(24:40):
or six farms that where things weren't going well, drove
up those driveways in a.
Speaker 6 (24:44):
Week that sorted it out.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
So yeah, compared to where we were, I think a big, big,
true doss to everybody in the sector who's made that happen.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Bruce Thurrell did darien Z, chief Science Advisor. That's hundreds
Talking Dairy podcast episode with yourself and the chief executive
Campbell Parker is out today. I'm going to have a
listen to that. It'll be good. Thanks for your time.
Speaker 6 (25:09):
See you at Field Days, Jamie. You're looking for for
de Field Days. It's going to be a pretty fun experience.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
I think, Thank you, Bruce, And it might be a
fun experience for some of the exhibitors now that we've
got new tax incentives to buy a new truck, ute,
or a tractor or a four wheel or whatever. Okay,
some of your feedback, Gee, it's coming in thick and fast.
Where's the one about the winter energy payment saying I
(25:35):
could ring up EMSD, what's that Ministry of Social Development
and give my winter energy payment back? But then what
would happen to winter energy payment coffees on a Wednesday? Michelle?
Do you think I should ring them up and give
it back?
Speaker 7 (25:50):
I'm not going to make that decision.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
There you go, You've got to give it to people
worse off than you are. Everyone in the Country team,
apart from they a'money joking, there's only three of us
here right he believe it or not, the winter energy
payment only doesn't even buy three coffees inflation. Now we've
got a chainsaw to give away. It's Still Chainsaw Safety
(26:15):
Awareness Week. We've got the ms Still MS one eight
to forty centimeter bar. This is a brilliant, brilliant, brilliant
chainsaw ideal for those smaller jobs around the farm, or
around the section, or the life sentence block. The winner
of yesterday's chainsaw, The question was what is the engine
capacity of a Still MS one eight to chainsaw? Carolyn
(26:39):
Goss from manor Tu I fong I know he was
able to tell us it was thirty six CC. I
wonder if she's related to Sarah Herony, you know, the
famous Goss sharing family. It's an unusual, not a common surname.
So well done, Carolyn. You win that chainsaw if you
want to win a chainsaw today. Courtesy of Phil rope
Har and the team from Still. Here's today's question. What
(27:01):
is the profession of current New Zealand and world champion
still timber sports competitor Jack Jordan. If you know the
answer to that, I think he works on the land.
If you know the answer to that, go to the
Country dot co dot Nz. Fill in the entry form
with the correct answer to get in the drawer up next.
It is the latest in rural news and sports news.
(27:24):
Before the end of the hour, Doctor Jack Willnrow with
Blair Blizzard, MacLean Zifi Sowston, Great Bomb theme from Tom
Jones Thunderball. Here's Michelle Watt with the latest and rural news.
Speaker 1 (27:43):
The Country's rural News with cub Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co
dot Nz for your locals doggist.
Speaker 8 (27:53):
Here we Blant based oats milk company Boring has secured
a distribution deal with Australia's largest supermarket.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
No, it's not milk, it's oatjuice, oat juice.
Speaker 7 (28:01):
Oat water Chane Woolworth's.
Speaker 8 (28:04):
Boring will supply ninety five percent of walworth sites in Australia,
including nine hundred and fifty three supermarkets and eighty metro locations,
with its original and Barista oat milk varieties. Founder Morgan
Moore says the expansion is a significant milestone and Boring's
international journey and that is real and as you can
find more at the Country dot co dot NZ.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
He's James Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at AFCO
dot co dot nz.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
Ah New Zealand Under twenty rugby coach Milton hay Goodblock
two has stood down a month out from his side's
World Championship campaign in Italy. He's cited a lack of
alignment with staff around topics like playing style, so he's
decided to stand down. That's a loss. And Berlin has
drawn criticism for proposing to host the twenty thirty six Olympics,
(28:50):
a century on from the Nazi organized event. Their pitch
is to show how much the city has changed in
the introm and I reckon Bilin would be great, great
hosts for the twenty thirty six Olympic Games. There's sport
up next to doctor Jacqueline Rower.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
When you got a job.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
She is one of our leading scientific minds, a primary
sector academic. Her name is doctor Jacquelin Rower Fortnightly. She
writes a wonderful column for our website for the Country
dot co dot in zid Jacqueline, I've just spoken to
Bruce Thorold from Dairy in z and I love some
of the stats he dragged up, like forty years ago,
if you had more than three hundred dairy cows in
(29:38):
your herd, you could go to the Large Herds Conference.
Isn't that wonderful?
Speaker 10 (29:43):
And it's still forty years ago, we still had more
cows in our average herd than the UK has today.
A remarkable New Zealand is just remarkable in terms of
it's dairy well.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
I remember visiting Ireland where the cows, the dairy cows
are the size of a house in two thousand and three,
and the average herd side in Ireland, and this is
only twenty or so years ago, was only forty or fifty.
Speaker 10 (30:09):
Yeah, and that's still pretty much the same in the EU.
So in the EU they absolutely survive on subsidies. Fifty
five was about the average for France, for instance. There
are some big herds where they actually do more what
we would recognize as through dairy focus. But diversification is
(30:31):
the norm for most of the areas in the northern
hemisphere in the European Union and the UK. And remember
the Irish with their size of a house, that was
before the quota came off. But then when the quota
did come off, then they were allowed to build up
their supply they said, yes, we're going to do that.
(30:52):
They hadn't planned in advance.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
How was the Dairy and z Farmers forum yesterday at Claudland's.
I know cam Begry was there, who spun your wheels
check Willen.
Speaker 10 (31:02):
Oh if that's a good thing. Vangelist guitarists made it
very clear he's the trade affairs guru that the environment
and animal welfare is absolutely key in all the negotiations
that are going around. There are lots of data talked
about and fundamentally in the eighty five percent of any
(31:24):
of the new of the discussions that are going on
focus on environments, with another five to six maybe ten
percent on animal welfare. And one of the issues with
animal welfare is that there are a whole lot of
codes in Europe and the UK that simply didn't apply
to New Zealand like powers cows for half of the year,
or even the rose veal where they're inside. We just
(31:46):
don't do it. And they go, you haven't got any
regulations and we say, oh, that's because we don't do it.
So some misunderstandings going on. But vangelists, in fact, all
the economists pipe people were saying this is a great
time being dairy and Mark's story from Dairy and Z
he's the head of the economics area. He was showing
(32:07):
the net present value really is terrific for dairy and
I'm sorry about sheet and beef in forestry.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
Let's just finish on the column you've written for us.
It's on the budget you right, Agriculture needs protection and investment.
Has the government gone some of the way with the
investment for instance with the investment boost text policy.
Speaker 10 (32:34):
Yeah, that applies to all businesses and sometimes people forget
that agriculture is a business, so yes, that is good.
We also talked about the big money that's under a
new pool now, but it isn't new money, and there
was no money being talked about for R and D
for research and development through what will be the public
(32:56):
research organizations until they get new names. Everybody yesterday at
the Farmer's Forum was talking about the importance of new
technologies and that's what the ASB Lincoln University report is about.
How do we get the new technologies? How can the
banks help fund the new technologies that will take us
(33:17):
into the future. But yes, it's a great time to
be in dairy and the budget was certainly part of
the foundation. And what all of us like in agriculture
is that the ministers go on saying it's a really
important sector, the primary sector, and dairy is driving the
New Zealand ship Doctor Jackwell and Roweth.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
You can read all about it or read what Jacquelin
has to say on our Websitetcountry dot co dot in
z Jaquelin. In two weeks time we'll be chatting live
at the field days see.
Speaker 10 (33:45):
You then looking forward to it where the Marino.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
He is our longstanding vitaiculture slash wine correspondent, Blair Blizzard MacLean.
It's a true honor to have him on the show
today because he's been a whole recently. I'm in the
wrong business. He's just spent two weeks lying on a
beach in Vietnam. If that's not enough, he's off to
Washington State in the US later this week for a
(34:13):
cherry symposium. Blizzard Bleair MacLean, you're living the.
Speaker 9 (34:16):
Life afternoon, Jamie. All in research, Jamie, It was all
in research that in Vietnam, certainly researching the food and
weave it of actually not wine. Really, wine's quite expensive Vietnam,
so cheap beer and yeah, just having a bit of
a holiday and break for that trip.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Well, you should have been you should have been a patriot, Blair.
Instead of spending your money in Vietnam, you should have
stayed here in New Zealand and got suzzled each night
on wine and do your bit to reduce the grape
glut that we have currently in this country. Off a
huge harvest this year.
Speaker 9 (34:53):
Yeah, good point. Well, I'll make sure I'll do that
in the two days and I'm back. But we'll certainly
samplingd some marble saving in Washington State when we're over there.
Speaker 6 (35:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 9 (35:03):
No, we do have a bit of extra wine around.
We just come off, like you say, the biggest vintage
we've had in history, really big numbers, and we just
it was perfect scenario for a great harvest. We had
a great winter chill, we had an awesome flowering and
the biggest fruit set in the Mountain berry set was
(35:25):
sort of never seen before. We had some savyon blanc
bunches weighing in four hundred grand mark. Normally they are
like one fifty to one eighty grams. The fruit in
the season and the harvest vintage went reasonably well. We
had good weather, so the quality of the of the
wine should be good. But yeah, there's just too much
of it, Jamie, and a lot of wineries are looking
(35:47):
at how they do things and maybe, you know, focusing
on quality servy on blanc.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
So let's have a look at the twenty twenty five harvest,
forty seven and a half thousand tons, up thirty nine
percent on the low yielding twenty twenty four. But to
put it into perspective, it's only up five percent from
twenty twenty three, which was another high harvest year. But literally,
there is not homes. There is not a home for
(36:12):
all these grapes. Are some of these grower is going
to be hung out to dry?
Speaker 9 (36:17):
Yeah, well, there are some wine companies that have obviously
lots of contract growers, and if they're contractors due for renewal,
you know that three or four or five year contracts,
then they are reviewing that. And we already have fruitfuge
splies for clients of ours that have no longer have
a contract with a wine company because it's they don't
(36:37):
need the grapes. So, you know, there's certainly a bit
of hurt in the industry. We're looking at different spray
programs and nutritional programs.
Speaker 6 (36:45):
For our growers.
Speaker 9 (36:46):
That can save a few dollars. But the biggest cost,
you know, forty seven percent of the outgoings from a
grape grower as labor. So you know that's the biggest cost,
and it's pretty hard to try and bring that back.
We are all hand pruning at the moment. I mean,
it's been growing and growing and growing. Of course, you
know in Marlborough here, for example, we're normally close to
(37:08):
a thousand hectores planted each year. We're up to that
thirty one thousand hectares of savm blanc here.
Speaker 3 (37:15):
COVID's got a bit to do with it.
Speaker 9 (37:17):
Maybe worldwide changing. I know, the world wide wine consumption
is down nine percent worldwide. It's down about six or
seven percent nationally here in New Zealand. That's your fault,
Jamie for having AfD days. But yeah, there's and you know,
just a trend. There's a lot of no alcohol or
low alcohol wine selling really well. So the world is
(37:41):
interested in health and looking after themselves.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
So what happens to those growers who lose their contracts
to a winery. They've got no home at all for
their grapes. Does that mean they go bust?
Speaker 9 (37:53):
Well, there is that. I know there's lots of banks
looking at things as well, but I mean some most
graves will have contras with several different wine companies, so
they won't just be one hundred percent. They might have
three wine companies for their one hundred hectares, so they'll
be asking those wine companies if they can take that fruit.
Or we mothball the vineyard for a year or two
(38:14):
until hopefully the industry comes back clean McLean wrapping.
Speaker 2 (38:18):
The Country will catch you back tomorrow with Miles Hurrell.
Speaker 10 (38:22):
What you.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McGue. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckaye Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment, Live Lender.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Get a New Zealand. Good afternoon, Welcome to the Country.
I'm Jamie McKay Shows brought to you by Brent James Bond.
Theme today will tell you why are we later? Going
to kick it off with the Prime Minister. Caught up
with them a a bit earlier this morning fronts up
on the Country after standing the hosskarup on Monday. Cameron
bagri independent economists. We missed him yesterday, going to nail
(00:52):
them today. Very important day. It's o CR day, two o'clock.
The Reserve Bank or the Interim Reserve Bank governor. We'll
dropped the ocr by twenty five basis points. Everyone's figured
that one out, but how many more drops have we got?
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Left?
Speaker 2 (01:09):
As neutral? Three percent or two point seventy five percent.
Also get Cameron's thoughts on the budget, including the investment
tax boost. Bruce Thurrelt darien Z's Chief science advisor, fascinating
piece on forty years of change in the dairy industry.
Doctor Jack Willin Rowath and Blair McLean, our viticulture correspondent.
(01:33):
What are we going to do with the grape glut?
So we'll talk a wee bit of wine before the
end of the hour as well. It's all on the
Country and it's all brought to you by brand A
PM to kick off proceedings next.
Speaker 4 (01:48):
But if this ever change in world in which we
live in makes liver Let.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Wednesdays on the Country. The Prime Minister kicks off the
show today. He's got off his death bed to chat
to us. Wasn't fit enough to talk to the hosk
on Monday. He's still sulking about that. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
Speaker 5 (02:19):
Well you can't talking to Jamie McKai right. I mean
it's absolutely fantastic. So no good to be with you, mate.
Seeing much better. I just had a bit of a
rough Sunday of Monday.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
So but we're back in the said all, which is good.
Speaker 5 (02:30):
So I'm been out selling the budget yesterday and today,
so I think there's been good reaction to it or
it's too funk.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
I'm going to come back to the budget, especially some
of the talk around your investment allowance or investment boost.
Have you read in the Herald today an interesting story
about Jim Bolger, who's about to turn ninety, and I'll
tell you what he said, Luxeon should tell Seymour to
shut up. He said, Winston's doing a good job and
he wants the age of national super to go to seventy.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
Well, listen, I wishn't ma happy birthday. I was talking
to Bill Birch last week and I know he's coming
down to celebrate Jim's birthday as well. But look, I
think coalition government. You know, we're halfway through the term.
I think we've worked incredibly well. It's the first time
you've had a three party coalition. We're very united on
the core stuff. Obviously there's differences in different party policies,
but you know, the vast majority of what we're focused
(03:21):
on is about growth, growth, growth, again, the country moving,
and I'm focusing on what key he's interested in. So
I think, you know, I enjoy working with both.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
You know, he's saying that you should tell Seymour to
shut up over MARI issues. Mainly he says Winston's doing
a good job. Do you need to tell Winston to
shut up? When it comes to the age of eligibility
for national super because this is becoming a real national
debate discussion argument at the moment.
Speaker 6 (03:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (03:47):
Look, I mean there's some things we're doing through the
budget around you know, resetting key, we save a contribution rates,
which I think.
Speaker 6 (03:53):
Is really good.
Speaker 5 (03:54):
That'll be build bigger retirement savings. But I do think,
you know, we do have differences. You know, we've had
a strong stand, long standing policy we think we should
list the age of retirement from sixty five to sixty seven.
The reason's pretty simple. Every ten years New Zealanders live
another year and a bit of life expectancy, which is great.
And you know, as many people would know out there
working in the workforce at sixty seven plus so and
(04:16):
want to continue to work so and other countries have
already moved to a pathway to sixty seven from sixty five,
so you know, but equally, we don't have political consensus
on it. Labour's dead set against it. New Zealand first
is dead set against it. So I suspect we'll go
to the election in twenty six with different party policies
on that point. And then you know, in our MMP
system we form coalition governments based off the result that
(04:38):
people give us on election night and then we have
to make it work. And that means in this case
we don't have agreement on that issue and we're unable
to progress it. But I think, you know, ultimately we
have to ask the question because the cost of superannuation
and the number of working new zeonder is supporting those
that are retired is changing over time. But you know,
we have a national party policy on that, which is
we think we should find a pot.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Absolutely, the population bell curve is work against you there.
Look the wash up from the budget. I think when
you turn up at field Days you'll be greeted with
glee from some of the exhibitors there because we're already
hearing anecdotally there's a rush on youtes, there's a rush
on tractors. So I think field Days is going to
be very positive off the back of your investment tax boost.
Speaker 5 (05:21):
This is something I wanted to do for some time,
even before I got to politics, because you know, when
you look at what actually accelerates growth, it's the adoption
of more capital, more equipment, more technology, and so this
is an incentive for people to say, look, I was
think you're buying that new tractor. In fact, I was
talking to a farmer in South Canterbury who was actually
just digested the policy and was actually planning this week
(05:43):
to go off and actually sort of buy a header
and attractor at the same time. They didn't thoughty do
the tractor, but thought based off this moving, you know,
you could write off twenty percent of the asset in
the first year. That was actually going to move the
cash flow analysis to make it actually a positive thing
to do, so, you know, and it's with manufacturers yesterday
in small medium enterprise, a couple hundred employees are producing
(06:04):
electrical stuff and you know, there's huge opportunity to buy
the equipment that's five times more productives and the equipment
that they've got in their factory at the moment. So
all of that's designed to improve the productivity of New Zealand,
to lift our living standards and our income. So yeah,
I'm really excited about that's gone down a tree.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
A final question for you. We had Mark Leslie, chief
executive of PARMU, on the show yesterday. He was pretty
unconvincing in defending Parmu's actions when it comes to carbon farming.
They're planting a lot of trees. Mark would argue they're
planting the right tree in the right place. But when
you see a very high functioning so I'm told pastoral
(06:42):
livestock station, Munga Mingy Station and Rapaou are going almost
all into trees. This is flying in the face of
what you're trying to do, isn't it.
Speaker 5 (06:50):
Well, as you know, we've campaigned on limits on farm
conversions and we have legislation in place this year, and
then we backdated to the fourth of December last year,
so particularly on a ban on luc one to six farmlanders,
you know. So you know, as I understand that Palma
have got quite a lot of Class six or seven land.
I thought from memory when I last looked at it
(07:11):
was maybe fifteen percent of their land was in Class
six and seven. And so forestry on those for those
purposes sort of you can sort of buy. Obviously Palm
has sort of both researching commercial.
Speaker 6 (07:22):
Goals, but.
Speaker 5 (07:24):
We expect it to utilize its land for the highest
and best use. And they you know, palmeus irons and
wouldn't be supporting carbon only farming, as in locking it
up and leaving it. The revenue that they've made on
carbon should be used for additional investments in technologies and
fencing requirements and all sorts of other.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
And and that's all fine and dandy, But some of
that Class seven land they're planting in pine trees, I
put it to you it may be uneconomic to harvest
that in twenty or thirty years time.
Speaker 5 (07:52):
Yeah, well, I mean they shouldn't be just supporting carbon
only farming, which is they're locking up and leaving it.
Speaker 6 (07:58):
They actually know.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
They're not doing that. They're saying they're not doing that,
But I'm just putting it to you. I don't think
they're setting a good example from the government's point of view.
Speaker 5 (08:08):
Yeah, well, I mean our policy is pretty clear and
we would expect them ultimately to follow that policy too.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Obviously, Prime Minister Chris Luxon always good to catch up
with you on the country on a Wednesday.
Speaker 5 (08:18):
Likewise, Jamie, you gave a great Weeklive a Leader.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Yes, the Prime Minister from earlier this morning, what do
you reckon? Is he right about Pamu? Should PAMU be
leading by example on this one? Let us know on
five double O nine, Michelle, thank you for bringing me
a cup of tea. We don't run a misogynoust show here.
I did buy you a coffee earlier this morning. This
(08:45):
is quid pro quo the bomb theme? What have we
done there? Wise?
Speaker 7 (08:49):
That Ian Fleming's birthday today.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Jamie as he dead.
Speaker 8 (08:53):
He died in nineteen sixty four, so while the James
Wand movies were going, he would have passed on.
Speaker 7 (08:57):
But of course this is a liven Lit Die Wings.
Can't he great? Sound? Great movies?
Speaker 2 (09:02):
Have you got some Shirley Bassie in there?
Speaker 7 (09:03):
I definitely have Shirley Bessie and.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
A bit of Jurane Juranne and Tom Jones. I think
didn't the dal do one recently?
Speaker 7 (09:09):
Yeah? She did Aline Skyfall quite a while ago.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Yeah, and then Billy Billy Eilish Sam Smith Smith I
love the Bond movies. I will say the Bond movies
are better than the Tom Cruise Mission Impossible movies. I
went to that on Sunday night with the program director
and it was a long two hours and fifty minutes,
not because I was sitting beside the program director, but
(09:34):
because it's just too long for a movie.
Speaker 7 (09:36):
That's way too long for it it is, And the.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
Bond movies like one hour fifties about the sweet Spot
up next to Cameron bagriy, will the Reserve Bank governor,
the acting Reserve Bank governor find the sweet spot for
the ocr We'll ask Cameron next, expect that announcement. It's
two o'clock this afternoon. What did this change? Well, which
(10:01):
we live in.
Speaker 4 (10:14):
Letty Go? Where are the heart?
Speaker 3 (10:19):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (10:19):
See our announcement time this afternoon at two pm. The
new or the fill in Reserve Bank governor, what's his name,
Christian Hawksby. I think we'll make the announcement. We all
know it's a drop of twenty five basis points, but
Cam Bagrey independent economists. The big question is is the
one or two more cuts after this is neutral? Three
percent or two point seventy five percent? Good afternoon.
Speaker 9 (10:43):
Oh, there's a little bit of I guess conjecture about
where neutral is where. What we know is that we're
getting into that sort of zone where monetary pilot policies
neither got the foot on the accelerator or the break,
which is sort of where you want to be when
you've got inflation under control all around two percent. We
know the economy there's a recovering, but it's still pretty weak.
(11:06):
There's going to be a decent injection from the dairy
sector over the extra twelve months, which will be encouraging.
But yeah, the inflation story as well is a little
bit too sided on some levels. When you've got weak demand,
there's no pricing powers. The construction prices are being trimmed.
It's tough in the retail land as well. But there's
other parts of the economy that are just not economically sensitive.
(11:28):
We're seeing pretty big inflation increases. You look at local
authority rates, you look at metal insurance, you look at
your gas, you look at your electricity bill. I just
see ports of walk and just put some whopping charges
into the freight industry as well, which are consumers are
going to end up paying down the pipeline.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
Let's move on to the budget. Well, last week's budget
the investment boost tax credit effectively an additional twenty percent
depreciation to be able to be claimed in year one.
This is going to be a real kickstart, I would
think for productivity.
Speaker 9 (12:00):
Well, potentially, I think it's going to be a pretty
big kick staff with some vehicle sales, and potentially a
few tractors are going to go out the door at
field dose because if you're front loading that sort of
tax deduction up front, it's a excuse to scrum a
little bit in regard to what you're going to spend
it on. Yeah, but if you're commercial buildings are included
(12:23):
in it as well, which will sort of scratch my
head over that one. The real big productivity kicker if
we can get the dial turning on your plant, machinery
and equipment and some of that on farm investment outside
of the vehicles. So I watched the space in regard
to where the people said to take it up move forward.
(12:45):
Some sectors you've got cash flow at the moment that
take advantage of that, but cash is still pretty tight
across the rest of the economy.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Yeah, you're right about commercial buildings. That's an interesting choice
because effectively that's not an appreciating asset like a tractor
or a truck.
Speaker 9 (13:00):
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, those things tend to have tended to appreciate. Yeah,
Largely driven drive construction costs you at a replacement value
of the items. We'll just see where it goes. Is
it going to magically turn the dial on New Zealand's
productivity story? The answer is none. Well, how around the edges, Yeah,
the answer is yes.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
One to finish on because I know that Brad Olsen
from Infometrics and Heather Duplessly Allen had a good scrap
on this one last night on ZB the age of
eligibility for National Super. I'm a pensioner now CAAM. I
get paid National Super, also get a winter energy payment.
I'm still working, I'm well paid. I don't need it.
I'm putting mine to a good use other than myself.
(13:43):
But the thing is, it is surely an entitlement. You
say it's not because I'm happy to wait till I'm
sixty seven. But when I'm sixty seven, I want my
entoldment because I think I've earned it.
Speaker 6 (13:57):
Well.
Speaker 9 (13:58):
I guess there's different in two repretations over what's the
role of government in regard to supporting sport, support of communities.
And my view is that the wealthiest debate, which is
a critical part in ZOND. It's a critical safety net.
We need to have it in place. But it's there
for the needy. It's not there for the greedy. You
(14:19):
those that have done well. It's a safety debt to
help people out in there in need. I think it's
a critical part of New Zeon's institutional, economic and social framework.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
But under your scenario, Cameron, aren't you punishing effectively people
who have worked hard all their lives, paid lots of
taxes with a view to having that benefit to enjoy
in their retirement. Does this incentivize people to do.
Speaker 9 (14:46):
Less well at the margin? Right? But I don't think
you're going to be making your decisions in your twenties
to thirties. You're working year years based on what you've
found in New Zeon's superannuation titlement could be at the
age of sixty four the sixty seven. But the bottom line, though,
is Jamie, is that the status quo is not sustainable. Yeah,
(15:07):
so you can go back and have a look at
the long term fiscal projections you have the last time
Treasury did the statement in the long term fiscal position.
If left unchecked, the current state is quot and it's
a combination of musical superannuation and health expenditure. Is where
you get ready whacked. If left unchecked, I e. We
continue with the status quo. Net government debt is going
(15:28):
to go to one hundred and eighty percent of GDP
in the next thirty to forty years. So what are
the choices.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Totally get that, but is it sustainable at sixty seven
years of age or do we eventually, as Jim Bolger
has suggested, move it to seventy.
Speaker 9 (15:43):
Well, yeah, presumably as life expectancy moves up, you'd expect
to turn the dial a little bit on New Zealand
superannuation in tottlement. I think there's other options we can
look at as well. You say, you've done really well
in your life, You've been paid a lot of money
and you've got a pretty Chemisaver balance. Why on earth
should the innuity income that you draw off your Chemisab
(16:07):
balance not be taken off uniusal on supercation entitlement, which
is effectively means testing, and we've already got them. We've
potentially got the mechanism in place. If you ever look
at a couple of things we saw within the budget.
There was element of means testing which is coming through
for those eighteen nineteen year old kids that are on
(16:28):
a benefit. If they're living at home and their family's
got the means to support them, you're wished the government.
There was a means testing theme that came through with Chemisaber.
If you're earning over a certain amount of money, the
gun's not going to give you one thousand bucks. Okay,
your means testing is an area where I think we're
going to need to see a lot more of because
the alternative is given spending presses, taxes are going to
(16:50):
go up.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
And no one wins. Then hey, Cameron Bagray, it's a
really interesting debate slash discussion. I'm sure it will continue,
especially into the next election. Thanks for your time, always
appreciate it here on the country and I'll see you
at field days.
Speaker 6 (17:05):
Looking forward to it.
Speaker 9 (17:06):
I'll just drive it up from Hamilton this Morner God.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
Thanks Cameron. Is twenty seven after twelve, you're with the country.
Lots of feedback coming. And just before I forget, we're
broadcasting from the Westpac building one block north of the
Octagon here in Dunedin. I look across the road and
I see outside the A n Z Bank a whole
lot of protesters. I wonder how many of them have
(17:30):
got jobs? Or I shouldn't be so facetious anyhow. The
irony of this, Michelle, as they're out there protesting against
global warming on a pretty cold Dunedin day. So as
Shane Jones having a crack at these guys.
Speaker 8 (17:43):
Yeah, he mentioned this protest in his budget speech I think,
and said he was going to be out with his
megaphone in Wellington yesterday, but he didn't arrive.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
Apparently, so I've got a good luck to the protesters.
I'm a cold Dunedin day. They're I'm creating climate crime
scenes and performing theater outside an Z entertainment for us. No,
I think I'd sooner play golf and watch them protest
against the global warming and climate change. Everyone to their own, Okay,
(18:12):
some of your feedback on Christopher Luxen and PAMU. The
loss of Mungamingy's station is nothing short of vandalism. Rights
a Texter, I sure they're in my youth. I E
a sharer and every year that farm and this is
what I'm hearing, pumped out tens of thousands of quality
(18:32):
lambs on hundreds of good carves at provided work not
just for the staff but for a multitude of contractors.
PAMU should be broken up if they're going to destroy
the assets we trust them with, Hi, Jamie, how many
ums and urs did the PMSA when trying to defend
(18:53):
woke POMU PAMU planting pines, says John and here's an
interesting one. Keep them coming up on five double oh nine,
oh jea, They are coming and they're coming in big time.
My screen slipping on me, but I wanted to get
this one out why. Cato University study of twenty twenty one,
according to the texture shows as temperatures increase, carbon fixing
(19:15):
by trees reducers, and if temperature goes up enough, trees
will produce more CO two than they absorb. Carbon farming
could become a disaster. While I've got news for you, Texter,
it already is a disaster. Up next, Bruce Thorold from
Dairy en Z. Haven't chatted to this bloke, it seems
(19:47):
for Ages always enjoyed his company on the country, probably
back in the farming show days as well. Bruce Thorold
these days is the chief Science Advisor for Dairy and
Zy Bruce, along with the chief executive, Ample Parker. You
guys have released today You're one hundred Talking Dairy podcast.
I'm going to have a look at this one because
(20:08):
you're going way back in time and I love this
stat of nineteen eighty five, the average herd size was
one hundred and forty seven cows. And believe it or not.
If you had more than three hundred cows in your herd,
you could go to the Large Herds Association conference. Times
have changed, Bruce.
Speaker 6 (20:26):
Yeah, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
When I went back and did those numbers, I actually
couldn't believe it, which just shows you how your memory
plays tricks on you, because I only had the three
hundred number of my mind. But if you'd ask me,
I'd said, the average farm is probably about two hundred
and fifty cows.
Speaker 6 (20:41):
And yeah, you go and check the stats. No turnament
cows per hectare you know?
Speaker 3 (20:47):
One hundred and one hundred and forty odd cows is
the average herd size. So yeah, we've come a long
way since then.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Well, nineteen eighty five, I was a young struggling sheep
farmer in a town called Riversdale and Southland, Bruce, and
there was no There wasn't a dairy cow on site.
I think the first ones came in in the early nineties.
We all thought they were mad. Now the place is
dominated by dairy cows.
Speaker 6 (21:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
Well, ninety eighty five, I was a young scientist working
in Rhoda, just at the same time that rogernomics starts
to shake up the science funding system, and we started
to move towards usipays and the pressure started going on
the sector, which was which led us to During Research
Corporation in nineteen eighty two. So yeah, the landscape is
(21:32):
as different from a whole lot of perspectives.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Okay, back in nineteen eighty five, you've gone to the
trouble of doing the numbers, so let's run through the
last of them. There were two point three million dairy cows.
What have we got now? Five or six or just
under six, isn't it.
Speaker 6 (21:46):
Milking cows were at about four and a half.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
I think, now, all right, I've got to brush up
on my numbers. Sorry, Bruce.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
So yeah, but yeah, big huge growth growth and all
the expansion through the South Island and parts of the
North Island. So yeah, you know, we're making a lot
more milk and bigger force in the economy anywhere else
than we were forty years ago.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
You and I were talking in the commercial break before
going to air, and we were talking about Southland and
what a terrible, terrible spring Southland had had. And I
said to you off hand and an off hand manner, perhaps,
I said, well, Bruce, that's better than a drought. Like
the North Island farmers have suffered. You said, maybe not
tell me your thinking on that.
Speaker 3 (22:32):
So I've got an interest in a dairy farm in
the southern Waiketo in r nteenth Country, which is used
to be regarded as summer safe and these days nowhere
near it. So we were probably the driest of the
Waikato this season. There's pretty much no rain material rain
(22:53):
from the end of January until sort of mid April.
But we're ready for those.
Speaker 6 (22:59):
Sort of droughts now up here, you know. Two seven,
two thousand.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
And eight was was a bit of a shambles. Three
years later we had a worse drought and it was
almost like nobody noticed, you know. So we've got better
at at feedbuffers, better at decision making, and yeah, if
you ask me, would I rather have three months of wet,
miserable spring weather pugging up every paddock or three months
(23:24):
of drought where I've got an inch heir, feeder and
feed contracts and the ability to handle demand.
Speaker 6 (23:29):
I'll take the drought.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
Hate Bruce talking about pugging up paddocks. I think one
of the real changes, and change is much needed and
much for the better, is wintering practice is They're still
not perfect, don't get me wrong there, but gee, we've
done a lot to improve them, especially in the South
where dairy cattle are being wintered often on fighter crops.
Speaker 6 (23:52):
Yeah, this is a huge success story I think for
the sector.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Jamie and how science and farmers and you know, the
regulators have work together to get to good practice. You know,
if I think back fifteen years, there were some pretty
boddy dodgy practices going on, and you know, we did
a lot of work with farmers research through the P
twenty one program, looking at buffer strips, looking at the
(24:18):
order in which you grazed your paddict, looking at slope
where you put bails, and then you work with farmers
to go here are the risk points, how are you
going to manage on your farm? And big changes in practice.
And my recollection is a couple of years ago the
Regional Council did a flyover in Southland. They spotted five
(24:40):
or six farms that where things weren't going well, drove
up those driveways in a.
Speaker 6 (24:44):
Week that sorted it out.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
So yeah, compared to where we were, I think a big, big,
true doss to everybody in the sector who's made that happen.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Bruce Thurrell did darien Z, chief Science Advisor. That's hundreds
Talking Dairy podcast episode with yourself and the chief executive
Campbell Parker is out today. I'm going to have a
listen to that. It'll be good. Thanks for your time.
Speaker 6 (25:09):
See you at Field Days, Jamie. You're looking for for
de Field Days. It's going to be a pretty fun experience.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
I think, Thank you, Bruce, And it might be a
fun experience for some of the exhibitors now that we've
got new tax incentives to buy a new truck, ute,
or a tractor or a four wheel or whatever. Okay,
some of your feedback, Gee, it's coming in thick and fast.
Where's the one about the winter energy payment saying I
(25:35):
could ring up EMSD, what's that Ministry of Social Development
and give my winter energy payment back? But then what
would happen to winter energy payment coffees on a Wednesday? Michelle?
Do you think I should ring them up and give
it back?
Speaker 7 (25:50):
I'm not going to make that decision.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
There you go, You've got to give it to people
worse off than you are. Everyone in the Country team,
apart from they a'money joking, there's only three of us
here right he believe it or not, the winter energy
payment only doesn't even buy three coffees inflation. Now we've
got a chainsaw to give away. It's Still Chainsaw Safety
(26:15):
Awareness Week. We've got the ms Still MS one eight
to forty centimeter bar. This is a brilliant, brilliant, brilliant
chainsaw ideal for those smaller jobs around the farm, or
around the section, or the life sentence block. The winner
of yesterday's chainsaw, The question was what is the engine
capacity of a Still MS one eight to chainsaw? Carolyn
(26:39):
Goss from manor Tu I fong I know he was
able to tell us it was thirty six CC. I
wonder if she's related to Sarah Herony, you know, the
famous Goss sharing family. It's an unusual, not a common surname.
So well done, Carolyn. You win that chainsaw if you
want to win a chainsaw today. Courtesy of Phil rope
Har and the team from Still. Here's today's question. What
(27:01):
is the profession of current New Zealand and world champion
still timber sports competitor Jack Jordan. If you know the
answer to that, I think he works on the land.
If you know the answer to that, go to the
Country dot co dot Nz. Fill in the entry form
with the correct answer to get in the drawer up next.
It is the latest in rural news and sports news.
(27:24):
Before the end of the hour, Doctor Jack Willnrow with
Blair Blizzard, MacLean Zifi Sowston, Great Bomb theme from Tom
Jones Thunderball. Here's Michelle Watt with the latest and rural news.
Speaker 1 (27:43):
The Country's rural News with cub Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co
dot Nz for your locals doggist.
Speaker 8 (27:53):
Here we Blant based oats milk company Boring has secured
a distribution deal with Australia's largest supermarket.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
No, it's not milk, it's oatjuice, oat juice.
Speaker 7 (28:01):
Oat water Chane Woolworth's.
Speaker 8 (28:04):
Boring will supply ninety five percent of walworth sites in Australia,
including nine hundred and fifty three supermarkets and eighty metro locations,
with its original and Barista oat milk varieties. Founder Morgan
Moore says the expansion is a significant milestone and Boring's
international journey and that is real and as you can
find more at the Country dot co dot NZ.
Speaker 1 (28:22):
He's James Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at AFCO
dot co dot nz.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
Ah New Zealand Under twenty rugby coach Milton hay Goodblock
two has stood down a month out from his side's
World Championship campaign in Italy. He's cited a lack of
alignment with staff around topics like playing style, so he's
decided to stand down. That's a loss. And Berlin has
drawn criticism for proposing to host the twenty thirty six Olympics,
(28:50):
a century on from the Nazi organized event. Their pitch
is to show how much the city has changed in
the introm and I reckon Bilin would be great, great
hosts for the twenty thirty six Olympic Games. There's sport
up next to doctor Jacqueline Rower.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
When you got a job.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
She is one of our leading scientific minds, a primary
sector academic. Her name is doctor Jacquelin Rower Fortnightly. She
writes a wonderful column for our website for the Country
dot co dot in zid Jacqueline, I've just spoken to
Bruce Thorold from Dairy in z and I love some
of the stats he dragged up, like forty years ago,
if you had more than three hundred dairy cows in
(29:38):
your herd, you could go to the Large Herds Conference.
Isn't that wonderful?
Speaker 10 (29:43):
And it's still forty years ago, we still had more
cows in our average herd than the UK has today.
A remarkable New Zealand is just remarkable in terms of
it's dairy well.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
I remember visiting Ireland where the cows, the dairy cows
are the size of a house in two thousand and three,
and the average herd side in Ireland, and this is
only twenty or so years ago, was only forty or fifty.
Speaker 10 (30:09):
Yeah, and that's still pretty much the same in the EU.
So in the EU they absolutely survive on subsidies. Fifty
five was about the average for France, for instance. There
are some big herds where they actually do more what
we would recognize as through dairy focus. But diversification is
(30:31):
the norm for most of the areas in the northern
hemisphere in the European Union and the UK. And remember
the Irish with their size of a house, that was
before the quota came off. But then when the quota
did come off, then they were allowed to build up
their supply they said, yes, we're going to do that.
(30:52):
They hadn't planned in advance.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
How was the Dairy and z Farmers forum yesterday at Claudland's.
I know cam Begry was there, who spun your wheels
check Willen.
Speaker 10 (31:02):
Oh if that's a good thing. Vangelist guitarists made it
very clear he's the trade affairs guru that the environment
and animal welfare is absolutely key in all the negotiations
that are going around. There are lots of data talked
about and fundamentally in the eighty five percent of any
(31:24):
of the new of the discussions that are going on
focus on environments, with another five to six maybe ten
percent on animal welfare. And one of the issues with
animal welfare is that there are a whole lot of
codes in Europe and the UK that simply didn't apply
to New Zealand like powers cows for half of the year,
or even the rose veal where they're inside. We just
(31:46):
don't do it. And they go, you haven't got any
regulations and we say, oh, that's because we don't do it.
So some misunderstandings going on. But vangelists, in fact, all
the economists pipe people were saying this is a great
time being dairy and Mark's story from Dairy and Z
he's the head of the economics area. He was showing
(32:07):
the net present value really is terrific for dairy and
I'm sorry about sheet and beef in forestry.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
Let's just finish on the column you've written for us.
It's on the budget you right, Agriculture needs protection and investment.
Has the government gone some of the way with the
investment for instance with the investment boost text policy.
Speaker 10 (32:34):
Yeah, that applies to all businesses and sometimes people forget
that agriculture is a business, so yes, that is good.
We also talked about the big money that's under a
new pool now, but it isn't new money, and there
was no money being talked about for R and D
for research and development through what will be the public
(32:56):
research organizations until they get new names. Everybody yesterday at
the Farmer's Forum was talking about the importance of new
technologies and that's what the ASB Lincoln University report is about.
How do we get the new technologies? How can the
banks help fund the new technologies that will take us
(33:17):
into the future. But yes, it's a great time to
be in dairy and the budget was certainly part of
the foundation. And what all of us like in agriculture
is that the ministers go on saying it's a really
important sector, the primary sector, and dairy is driving the
New Zealand ship Doctor Jackwell and Roweth.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
You can read all about it or read what Jacquelin
has to say on our Websitetcountry dot co dot in
z Jaquelin. In two weeks time we'll be chatting live
at the field days see.
Speaker 10 (33:45):
You then looking forward to it where the Marino.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
He is our longstanding vitaiculture slash wine correspondent, Blair Blizzard MacLean.
It's a true honor to have him on the show
today because he's been a whole recently. I'm in the
wrong business. He's just spent two weeks lying on a
beach in Vietnam. If that's not enough, he's off to
Washington State in the US later this week for a
(34:13):
cherry symposium. Blizzard Bleair MacLean, you're living the.
Speaker 9 (34:16):
Life afternoon, Jamie. All in research, Jamie, It was all
in research that in Vietnam, certainly researching the food and
weave it of actually not wine. Really, wine's quite expensive Vietnam,
so cheap beer and yeah, just having a bit of
a holiday and break for that trip.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Well, you should have been you should have been a patriot, Blair.
Instead of spending your money in Vietnam, you should have
stayed here in New Zealand and got suzzled each night
on wine and do your bit to reduce the grape
glut that we have currently in this country. Off a
huge harvest this year.
Speaker 9 (34:53):
Yeah, good point. Well, I'll make sure I'll do that
in the two days and I'm back. But we'll certainly
samplingd some marble saving in Washington State when we're over there.
Speaker 6 (35:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 9 (35:03):
No, we do have a bit of extra wine around.
We just come off, like you say, the biggest vintage
we've had in history, really big numbers, and we just
it was perfect scenario for a great harvest. We had
a great winter chill, we had an awesome flowering and
the biggest fruit set in the Mountain berry set was
(35:25):
sort of never seen before. We had some savyon blanc
bunches weighing in four hundred grand mark. Normally they are
like one fifty to one eighty grams. The fruit in
the season and the harvest vintage went reasonably well. We
had good weather, so the quality of the of the
wine should be good. But yeah, there's just too much
of it, Jamie, and a lot of wineries are looking
(35:47):
at how they do things and maybe, you know, focusing
on quality servy on blanc.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
So let's have a look at the twenty twenty five harvest,
forty seven and a half thousand tons, up thirty nine
percent on the low yielding twenty twenty four. But to
put it into perspective, it's only up five percent from
twenty twenty three, which was another high harvest year. But literally,
there is not homes. There is not a home for
(36:12):
all these grapes. Are some of these grower is going
to be hung out to dry?
Speaker 9 (36:17):
Yeah, well, there are some wine companies that have obviously
lots of contract growers, and if they're contractors due for renewal,
you know that three or four or five year contracts,
then they are reviewing that. And we already have fruitfuge
splies for clients of ours that have no longer have
a contract with a wine company because it's they don't
(36:37):
need the grapes. So, you know, there's certainly a bit
of hurt in the industry. We're looking at different spray
programs and nutritional programs.
Speaker 6 (36:45):
For our growers.
Speaker 9 (36:46):
That can save a few dollars. But the biggest cost,
you know, forty seven percent of the outgoings from a
grape grower as labor. So you know that's the biggest cost,
and it's pretty hard to try and bring that back.
We are all hand pruning at the moment. I mean,
it's been growing and growing and growing. Of course, you
know in Marlborough here, for example, we're normally close to
(37:08):
a thousand hectores planted each year. We're up to that
thirty one thousand hectares of savm blanc here.
Speaker 3 (37:15):
COVID's got a bit to do with it.
Speaker 9 (37:17):
Maybe worldwide changing. I know, the world wide wine consumption
is down nine percent worldwide. It's down about six or
seven percent nationally here in New Zealand. That's your fault,
Jamie for having AfD days. But yeah, there's and you know,
just a trend. There's a lot of no alcohol or
low alcohol wine selling really well. So the world is
(37:41):
interested in health and looking after themselves.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
So what happens to those growers who lose their contracts
to a winery. They've got no home at all for
their grapes. Does that mean they go bust?
Speaker 9 (37:53):
Well, there is that. I know there's lots of banks
looking at things as well, but I mean some most
graves will have contras with several different wine companies, so
they won't just be one hundred percent. They might have
three wine companies for their one hundred hectares, so they'll
be asking those wine companies if they can take that fruit.
Or we mothball the vineyard for a year or two
(38:14):
until hopefully the industry comes back clean McLean wrapping.
Speaker 2 (38:18):
The Country will catch you back tomorrow with Miles Hurrell.
Speaker 10 (38:22):
What you.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McGue. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
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