The Country 30/05/25: Jen Corkran talks to Hamish McKay

Rabobank’s senior analyst for animal protein at RaboResearch previews Rabobank’s Beef Quarterly, which will be released next week.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Senior Analyst Animal Protein for Rabobank, Jen Corcoran joins us. Now, Jen,
how are you.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm good?

Speaker 1 (00:06):
Thank you?

Speaker 2 (00:07):
How much? How are you doing?

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Yeah, not too bad, but a fun coming in and
filling in for the old namesake, the senior Makai by
quite a number of years actually, to be fair, Jen,
but he does. We once had a shearing competition a
few years back, and to be fair, he cleaned me up,
So you know, we but hey, hey, you know that's
how it goes. And has Lot got off the boat
and learned how to spell their name properly in mind
dropped the A from the NAC so, you know, look

(00:30):
to regret that ever since. Right, We've got the Q
two Beef quarterly report that's coming out shortly a.

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Bit of a preview today, so this report will be
out next week. So yeah, the quarter two Beef quarterly
from the Rubbery Research team. So this is a global report,
and yeah, I'd say this is a pretty good mid
twenty twenty five snapshot of what's gone on and what
we think is going to go on in those global
beef markets throughout the rest of the year.

Speaker 1 (00:54):
Okay, So tell us about the global outlook when it
comes to production and supply.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
Yeah, so global production is about to sort of hear
into a bit of a decline. So what we've seen
and we've got the data globally across that huge quarter,
so essentially from January through to the end of March,
and there's also a bit of April discussion within the report,
but what we've seen actually over that period is a
modest year on year increase in terms of that global

(01:20):
supply of beef, so pretty steady year on year. But
the prediction now looking across broadly of all the countries
that we cover here, and that's everywhere that Rubber Research
sets around the globe, so all the big beef production regions,
we're expecting to see a contraction by about two percent
for the rest of the year. With that demand piece,
you know, the number of people still wanting to buy

(01:40):
a net meat, red meat and beef in particular still
really strong, so that you know, contraction of supply with
really strong demand is leding to some record breaking prices
and we've seen that here in New Zealand and a
some places like Europe. In the US, we're seeing sort
of record high beef prices at the moment, So it's
an interesting outlook really going ahead.

Speaker 1 (02:00):
Hamos, Yes, certainly is. I mean there's always you know,
is somebody who mixes his time between urban and rural.
There's been plenty of those who want to knock the
old red meat off, but it keeps bouncing back, doesn't it.
You know, that increased demand and desirability is still there globally.

Speaker 2 (02:16):
Yeah, and it's a verstile protein, right beef. There's a
lot we can do with it. People know how to
cook it, and we're seeing huge demand from the States,
which we've talked about a lot this year and it's
well reported around the media right with the United States
heard rebuild and the demands for lentrom, which ourselves in
Australia are very good attending to them. So that demand
piece is really being seen here in terms of some

(02:40):
great pricing and a law of products still heating over
to the state.

Speaker 1 (02:44):
Okay, we're talking with Gen Corkran's senior analyst animal protein, Rabobank,
Harris mckaye, And for Jamie McKay, the Trump tariff, she's
having fun with a few judges or three judges or
something at the moment, hasn't he mister Trump. But all
the uncertainty and unpredictability in global markets that that has
caused in recent months, including in the global beef market.

(03:04):
What's the likely impact of these tariffs for New Zealand,
Australia And actually where do you see them sitting and
will they happen? I mean it's a yeah, talk about
an open book.

Speaker 2 (03:15):
Yeah, and it's hard to keep up with at the moment,
isn't it. And of course based the big one that
we're watching here because this is where we've seen, you know,
where we see a lot of value coming back from
New Zealand and that values up hugely this year and
we're still seeing that now. But the Trump tariff suddenly
have created some uncertainty in terms of what we might
expeact to see for the rest of the year. But broadly,
the good news is that we're currently facing that ten

(03:37):
percent regardless of what happens, you know, it's currently facing
that ten percent baseline tariff, the same as pretty much
all the other main beef production regions that are sending
into the United States. So we're on a level playing field.
That's a good news story for New Zealand and the
same for Australia. Now, the real watching point I think
for US really lies in those US China relations and

(03:58):
what this trade will might mean there because we you know,
we're in a pretty good spot. We're shielded somewhat given
that we know that this you know, the demand from
the US is going to be really strong for that
lantram and we're going to fill that critical supply get
quite easily from this side. But you know, whatever fallout
we might see between the States and China and some
of the other Asian countries could even you know, potentially

(04:20):
be good for us too. But a watching point, I
think in terms of all those puzzle pieces being up
in the air with global trade at the moment and
just where they're all going to land over the next
six months. So we'll continue to watch that. Then there's
certainly some turbulence, but we're in an okay spot and
we're sittingly on a level playing field with everyone else.
So that's a good thing.

Speaker 1 (04:39):
Great tonight, Great to know, Thank you very much that
as Jen Corkoran, Senior analyst animal Protein with Rabo back