May 30, 2025 • 40 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Toby Williams, Damien O'Connor, Cameron Bagrie, Christopher Luxon, and Mile Hurrell.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The best of the country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Grow with Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
DA and Good Morning New zeal And. My name's Jamie McKay.
This is the best of the country. It's brought to
you each and every Saturday morning here on News Talks.
They'd be by Rabobank. We're growing a better New Zealand together.
Kicking it off with eighties band A Thompson Twins starring
Kiwi Elana Curry in their number King for a Day
and I thought i'd play that because it is King's
(00:48):
birthday weekend. I hope you get a break during the
long weekend. I know a lot of farmers won't because
it's also moving Day or moving weekend for the dairy industry. Now.
King Charles seventy three became the oldest person to accede
to the British throne when he took the position upon
the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth in twenty two.
(01:10):
Happy unofficial birthday, Charlie. I'm going to kick it off
with Toby Williams. Federated Farmers Meat and Wool Chair has
launched a new campaign or the Fed SAB called SOS
Save our Sheep. Damien O'Connor is always up for a
bit of a scrap on the country. We had one
earlier in the week. I talked to Cameron Bagray ahead
of the ocr announcement on Wednesday, I think more importantly,
(01:31):
we talked about the government's new investment tax boost scheme
and the age of eligibility for national super an argument
that refuses to die. We've also got Christopher Luxen and
Miles Hurrell, of course. Miles Hurral the chief executive of Fonterra.
Big announcement on Thursday, a great opening forecast milk price
(01:52):
for the twenty five twenty six season. It's all on
the best of the country and it's all brought to
you by Rabobank.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
The best of the country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Choose the bank with a huge network of progressive farming clients,
Ravo Bank.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Toby Williams kicks off the show from Federated Farmers and
Toby SOS Save our Sheep. How are you going to
do that? Good afternoon, yeah, Jamie, good afternoon.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
Well, it's up to the government to make some changes
and the critical ones here around the etes unings. Otherwise
we run the risk of, you know, I'm not having
a sheep industry anymore. And I think all the irony
in this whole thing, Jamie is last week when we
heard the budget come out, they talked about our export
read recovery.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
We are the only country in the world that allows
one hundred percent carbon offsetting through forestry within our etes.
Therein lies part of the problem, a good part of
the problem.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Yeah, it's really the main problem that and you know,
the never ending amount of units that are able to
be rested in it. So ATS is set up to
change behavior produece behavior, and the way it currently functions
is they can buy as many units as they're like
now and just keep care to them out. And so
to keep doing that, they keep planning more pines, don't
you reckon?
Speaker 3 (03:09):
There's an element of the Emperor's New Clothes about this
carbon offsetting system and the ets.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
Yeah, one hundred percent of it's really a government sponsored
ponzi scheme. And those people who have got it early
and continue to maybe get in now, you know, are
really reaping the benefits of it. But we aren't seeing
demands for pine trees due to years down the future
considering in the primary production at least anyway, forestry is
the one secret that's really struggling. And you know, we
should have been utilizing more of these trees. We've got
(03:39):
on more processing and making all these products. Now we
seem to have a housing shortage in Australia and New
Zealand and a pine tree excess, so surely the two should.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Be Now you have written an excellent opinion piece that'll
be on our website, The Country dot co dot NZ
and it's you, right, and I'm going to quote you say,
because this is well written, sheep are quickly becoming an
endangered species. Their main predators pines, pigs and poor government policy.
You go on to write, I'm only forty four and
(04:08):
in my lifetime alone, we've lost over two thirds of
our national flock.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
Yeah, it's a frightening number. Resonant. The first big really
came with rogenomics, and we can't argue that we had
a very inefficient sheep flock that we've turned it into
one of the most productive effashion flocks in the world.
Yet we can't keep productivity increasing at the rate we
have and maintain an industry that has jobs and rural
(04:35):
communities at its heart, so we need to have an
urgent changes to government policy to really make sure we
protect what we've got left.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Well, it's all very well, you shouting from the rooftops
save our sheep with your new campaign at Federated Farmers.
But as I said in the intro, how are you
going to do it? You're going to petition government to
change some of the rules.
Speaker 4 (04:58):
Yeah, we are. Again, we're pushing for easiest changes. We
have been through about four or five years now, and
we'll keep frogging the way through then. You know, they
went part of the way with their announcers back in December,
but we are you know, there's a workarounds people have
found around there, especially down in Southland and or to Targo,
that we're still really concerned about. And we're hoping to
meet with Race with an MPI about getting the rules
(05:19):
up so to make sure that only those people who
are actually intending properly, you know, in the fourth of
December to be planting those properties and pinetrees are able
to still do that.
Speaker 5 (05:29):
And sorry, you go, no, no, no, not at all.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
I was just inhaling and about to exhale, and you
stopped on me that the thing is a lot of
the pines. I mean, let's be honest about it. Let's
not sugarcoat this. That are being painted, that are being painted,
that are being planted right now aren't for forestry production
because as you pointed out, unfortunately forestry are fourth biggest
industry and a very important industry for the primary sector.
(05:55):
The returns aren't that flash at the moment. You wouldn't
be paying good money for land to plant, and if
your only income stream was production, forestry and the carbon
credits are very much the icing on the cake. But
we've got the settings wrong.
Speaker 4 (06:09):
Yeah, that's exactly right. It's a massive subsidy. I think
the best thing that ever happened to us, as mean
wall farmers and dairy farmers is when the subsidies came
off and we had to become more efficient. And you know,
with the carbon subsidy there, if people want to put
a pine tree in and it's the best use of
that man's going to get in the best return over
the next thirty years without carbon subsidies, then one hundred
(06:30):
percent that tree should go into there. But the problem is,
I haven't found a single person telling me in thirty
years time that they're going to be making tens of
millions of or billions of dollars out of forestry. It's
just not going to happen.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Yeah, Pines, pigs and poor government policy, and I think
the feral pests are a real issue along with the
fire danger under climate change, under global warming, that some
of these carbon forests will present in twenty or thirty
years time. And I I hate to say it, Toby,
and I'm a cynic on this one, but I reckon
(07:03):
there's a fair element of spray and walk away to
some of these plantations.
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Yep. And then that's what our big concerns are. There's
no you know, they can tell us you're blue in
the face, that they intend to other harvest them, that
they intend to prune them. The reality is completely different.
You know, while that carbon somebsit is there and you
can make a lot of money. It doesn't take much
for a change of direction from the company that owns
them to divest those resources that are overseas or have
(07:29):
a change of heart around what they want to do,
or actually they continue claiming their carbon after year sixteen
and hoping that ETS collapses and then they don't have
to pay the units back. That doesn't happen. If the
ets actually functioning properly and the price continues to rise,
then we are going to have these teas with people
just go well, I can't afford to cut these trees
down now, and they will walk away. And we've seen
(07:53):
you know what poor harvesting and you know mitslope failure
does on the East coast after get brown and hale,
and you know, we're suddenly going to start bringing this
out to communities all around New Zealand. That's you know,
Unfortunately for US, politics is a three year cycle and
they don't look thirty years of the future.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Okay, just finally, you're based in the Gisbon region there,
you're kind of the carbon farming capital of the country there.
Someone sent me Toby over the weekend and I'm just
trying to drag it up on my phone now, but
I can't multitask some pictures of it is it? Who
herew a station?
Speaker 6 (08:26):
Who?
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Who are you row a station? And some of that
land I'm looking at and the photos of the person
kindly sent to me is rolling at best sort of
country and I'm thinking that should be grazing an animal
to grow some meat or some milk or some fiber.
Speaker 4 (08:43):
Yeah, the irony of that fie. I ran a massive
campaign about five years ago to stop those farms trying
to be sold to an offshore company. And we even
had a position to go to Parliament and carry out
and came and collected it from us and took it
down there and we met with the primary reduction Selecuviitty
over this. But the hands are tied. That was sold
under the Special Forest guests, which thankfully has been booted.
(09:05):
But if that farm was anywhere else in news here
and not remote up East coast, it was close to
the town here, or it was going in the White Kado,
it would be in dairy farm. That's how good that
country is. It's just the fact that it's isolated and
the Special Forest yet gave six week rubber stamp to
come and put pine trees into it. And you know,
it's a tough blow over the East Coast. And I said,
we still cry about that now. And that was one
(09:27):
of one of our old family farms that my grandfather
sold through the dispensers in the late nineteen eighties.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
Wow, Toby Williams from Federated Farmers from earlier in the
week on the country, kicking off the SOS Save Our
Sheep campaign. Some of that land going to carbon farming
is just plain wrong. Up next, Damian O'Connor and Cameron
Bagriy before the end of the hour, the Prime Minister
and the bloke with one of the biggest jobs in
the country, Miles Hurral, chief executive of Fonterra. It's all
(09:57):
on the best of the country. It's brought to you
by Rabo Bank on your long King's Birthday weekends.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Yeah, the best of the country with Rabobank, the bank
with local agri banking experts, passionate about the future of
rural communities Rubbobank.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
His name is Damian O'Connor, Labour's Trade Minister. So it's
Palming North today. Tomorrow you're off to Masterton for day
one of the two day I'm calling it eleven with
Federated Farmers. This is the Labor Caucus or some of
the key Labour spokespeople meeting with Federated farmers. Is this
a complete waste of time?
Speaker 5 (10:36):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (10:37):
I mean you have to ask a Federated Farmers, I guess.
And it's been set up. It's a very useful forum.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Who instigated this, sorry Damien, who instigated it? Labor or Feds?
Speaker 6 (10:48):
Chris Hipkins, you know, I think reached out. I think
it was both sides agreed that they should sit down
and talk about these things as we go forward. And
I'll be there for half a day tomorrow and you
know there'll be some useful discussions. It is important we
will be back in government. Farmers, you know, are absolutely
cornerstone to our economy and will be for a long
time into the future.
Speaker 3 (11:10):
You've forgot that on the last term.
Speaker 5 (11:12):
No, well, I.
Speaker 6 (11:13):
Guess you know. Do we want to get back into
those old areas of debate.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
People. You can't come onto the show and be holier
than thou supporting the farming industry when you did your
best shafted, especially on the second you.
Speaker 6 (11:26):
Make some silly statements.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
No I don't.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
I'm I'm just echoing what I'm hearing from farmers.
Speaker 6 (11:31):
Well, if you know, perhaps you should just go and
listen to Mars or to nesle Fonterra A's bigg ast customers.
Now they've got European subsidies coming to help farmers to
move to a Laura missions farming system. We were saying
that that, and we put a billion dollars in one
budget into the rural sectors around some integrated farm plans
to get some waterway catchment groups, the whole lot to
(11:54):
move us forward. That's what we did. We committed to that.
But because you know, you were happy to kind of
kick the sand in our face in that area and say,
as the world is moving in that direction, we have
to keep up. If we want an opportunity and an advantage,
we can try and get ahead of that. At the
moment we're kind of slow lagguards, but we can get
(12:16):
there if we try harder.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
Yeah, he Walkinoa was a great idea, wasn't it.
Speaker 6 (12:20):
Well, I guess it was very challenging. And I said
that to the Prime Minister of the day that trying
to get sector leaders to sit down and agree on
anything and move forwards almost impossible. That remains the reality today.
But until we do that and work out best land
use more efficient operation and coordination cooperation, you know we're
(12:41):
going to fail because we're simply too small as individual
companies and so we have to cooperate as under New
Zealand Inc. To say that we have some of the
best systems in the world. We're trying to be better
and we'll produce the very best food and finder for
the world market.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
Sometimes I wonder if you believe in your harder hearts
what you sputing. But I'll get on to land use change.
Speaker 6 (13:02):
We have to. There's no alternative because actually, unless we
are the best, and that does.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
We we are the best, we are currently the best.
Speaker 7 (13:10):
We're no, we're not.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
So you you name a lower emissions producer of protein
than us around the world, Damien, who is it?
Speaker 1 (13:16):
There?
Speaker 6 (13:17):
There are other areas well who you have lower footprints
in different systems indoor system and.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
I'm talking about in a pastoral sense, who's a lower
emissions producer than New Zealand. You haven't got an answer
because there isn't one.
Speaker 6 (13:30):
Well, well, yes, in a pastoral system, but the vast
majority of protein producer the world is not in the
pastoral system. It's it's in indoor systems and in port production,
chicken production.
Speaker 3 (13:43):
Yeah, but you're telling us you want clean green and
the way of the future is pasture based production. You
can't have your cake and eat.
Speaker 6 (13:52):
There's an advantage in some of the markets if you
say it's pasture based people say there's more, there's more
ameaga trees, it's healthier for you, it's better, will pay
more for it. But we also want to have a
low carbon footprint over time. That's what Nesle is saying,
that's what Mars are saying. So we've got to combine
those attributes and get the premiums that we need because
we don't have a subsidized food or farming system. We
(14:15):
need to get those premiums back into farmer's pockets so
they remain comfitable.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
What is our biggest customer, China saying.
Speaker 6 (14:22):
How we've just heard today here from a couple of
people who live in market saying that China's moving in
that space is very very quickly. They've got massive inroads
and e vehicles for example, because they want to reduce
their carbon emissions. You know, they've got issues around electricity
production that I'm sure people will point out.
Speaker 3 (14:40):
A new coal fired station, a new coal fired power
station every week. That's what China is doing about reducing
It's a mission Stamian.
Speaker 6 (14:50):
I think that what you'll find is that will reduce
over time, just as their pollution has reduced. They are
very focused on that direction, and we have to keep up.
They've got very smart consumers who are looking at their food.
They've got you know, systems through pure codes and traceability
that you leave us for dead. And they were saying
(15:10):
that there's literally no use of money now. It's all
electronic communication and transactions over in a market that you know,
probably twenty years ago we thought was developing now way
ahead of us.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
Hey, let's just finish on dairy conversions in Canterbury. We're
hearing them, maybe up to fifteen of them. See that
didn't suit your kind of hey Woker Echonoa rhetoric line.
But surely if we're looking to double and I don't
know whether you support this, Damieno kind of if the
government's looking to double primary sect their exports in the
(15:42):
next decade, dairy farming has to do some heavy lifting.
What's wrong with the dairy conversion is as long as
it meets all environmental consents.
Speaker 6 (15:53):
Well, I guess you have to ask the people who
are living around Lakehood, you know, and around of the
rivers and trying to get water from some of the
aquifers weather you know, we can continue to increase. I
guess that the intensive dairy in Canterbury. I can't make
that judgment, but there are some indicators that we have
(16:14):
to look at the impacts of that, and yes, I
agree we should get more value for what we're doing,
not just do more. And that's I said that all
the way through as Minister. Just getting people to do more,
produce more is not necessarily the way forward. What we
need to do is get more for what we do
and that will lift the levels of productivity across our
(16:35):
economy which are still pretty low. In the egg area
it's quite high, but a lot of other areas we
have low productivity and we've got to change that.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Hey, are you going to Field Days? Up for another
scrap at field Days?
Speaker 6 (16:48):
Absolutely?
Speaker 2 (16:49):
There here the best of the country with Rubbobank. Choose
the bank with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
Grow with Rubberbank o.
Speaker 3 (16:59):
CR andnouncement time this afternoon at two pm the new
or the fill in Reserve Bank governor what's his name,
Christian Hawksby. I think we'll make the announcement. We all
know it's a drop of twenty five basis points. But
cam Bagrey independent economists, the big question is is the
one or two more cuts after this is neutral three
percent or two point seventy five percent. Good afternoon.
Speaker 5 (17:23):
There's a little bit of, I guess, conjecture about where
neutral is where. What we know is that we're getting
into that sort of zone where monetary pilot policies neither
got the foot on the accelerator or the break, which
is sort of where you want to be when you've
got inflation under control around two percent. Look, we know
the economy there's a recovering, but it's still pretty weak.
(17:46):
There's going to be a decent injection from the dairy
sector over the next sort of twelve months, which will
be encouraging. But yeah, the inflation story as well is
a little bit too sighted on some levels. When you've
got weak demand, there's no pricing powers. The construction crisis
are being trimmed. It's tough in the retail land as well.
But there's other parts of the economy that are just
(18:07):
not economically sensitive. We're seeing pretty big inflation increases. You
look at local authority rates, you look at metal insurance,
you look at your gas, you look at your electricity bill.
I just see ports of walk and just put some
whopping charges into the freight industry as well, which are
consumers are going to end up paying down the pipeline.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Let's move on to the budget. Well, last week's budget
the investment boost tax credit effectively an additional twenty percent
depreciation to be able to be claimed in year one.
This is going to be a real kickstart, I would
think for productivity.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
Well potentially, I think it's going to be a pretty
big kick staff for some vehicle sales, and potentially a
few tractors are going to go out the door at
field days, because if you're front loading that sort of
tax deduction up front, it's a excuse to scramble a
little bit in regard to what you're going to spend
it on. Commercial buildings are included in it as well,
(19:04):
which will sort of scratch my head over that one.
The real big productivity kicker if we can get the
dial turning on your plant, machinery and equipment and some
of that on farm investment outside of the vehicles. So
I watch the space in regard to whether people said
to take it up move forward. Some sectors have got
(19:26):
cash flow at the moment that take advantage of that,
but cash is still pretty tight across the rest of
the economy.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
Yeah, you're right about commercial buildings. That's an interesting choice
because effectively that's not an appreciating asset like a tractor
or a truck.
Speaker 5 (19:40):
Yeah, exactly, Yeah, those things have tended to appreciate largely
driven drive construction costs. You're out of replacement value of
the items. We'll just see where it goes. Is it
going to magically turn the dial on New Zealand's productivity story?
The answer is none. We'll help around the edges. The
answer is yes.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
Want to finish on because I know that Brad Olsen
from Infometrics and Heather Duplessly Allen had a good scrap
on this one last night on ZB the age of
eligibility for National Super. I'm a pensioner nolkam. I get
paid National Super. I also get a winter energy payment.
I'm still working, I'm well paid. I don't need it.
I'm putting mine to a good use other than myself.
(20:23):
But the thing is, it is surely an entitlement. You
say it's not because I'm happy to wait till i'm
sixty seven. But when I'm sixty seven, I want my
entoldment because I think I've earned it well.
Speaker 5 (20:38):
I guess there's different interpretations over what's the role of
government in regard to supporting sports, support of communities, and
in my view is that the wealthiest debate, which is
a critical part of New Zone. It's a critical safety net.
We need to have it in place. But it's there
for the needy. It's not there for the greedy those
(21:00):
that have done well. It's a safety in debt to
help people out when they're in need. I think it's
a critical part of New Zealand's institutional, economic and social framework.
Speaker 3 (21:12):
But under your scenario, Cameron, aren't you punishing effectively people
who have worked hard all their lives, paid lots of
taxes with a view to having that benefit to enjoy
in their retirement. Does this incentivize people to do less.
Speaker 5 (21:27):
Well at the margin?
Speaker 7 (21:30):
Right?
Speaker 5 (21:30):
But I don't think you're going to be making your
decisions in your twenties to thirties. You're working a year
years based on what you're doing. In New Zealand. Superannuation
titlement could be at the age of sixty five or
sixty seven. The bottom line though, is Jamie, is that
the status quo it's not sustainable. Yeah, so you can
go back and have a look at the long term
fiscal projections. You have the last time treasury that the
(21:52):
statement in the long term fiscal position I've left unchecked.
The current state is quot and it's a combination of
musical superannuation and health expenditure. Is where you get ready
whacked if left unchecked, i e. We continue with the
status quo. Met government debt is going to go to
one hundred and eighty percent of GDP in the next
thirty to forty years. So what are the choices?
Speaker 3 (22:14):
Totally get that, but is it sustainable at sixty seven
years of age or do we eventually, as Jim Bolger
has suggested, move it to seventy.
Speaker 5 (22:23):
Well, yeah, presumably as life expectancy moves up, you'd expect
to turn a dial a little bit on New Zealand
superinnuation in titlement. I think there's other options we can
look at as well. You say, you've done really well
in your life, You've been paid a lot of money,
and you've got a pretty big Chevy Saver balance. Why
on earth should inuity income that you draw off your
(22:46):
Chevysaver balance not be taken off your New Zealand superparation
entitlement which is effectively means testin and we've already got that.
We've potentially got the mechanism in place. If you ever
looked at a couple of things we saw within the budget.
There was element of means testing which is coming through
for those eighteen nineteen year old kids that are on
(23:08):
a benefit. If they're living at home and their family's
got the means to support them, you're worshiped the government.
There was a means testing theme that came through with
Kiwi sober. If you're earning over a certain amount of money,
the Gun's not going to give you a thousand bucks.
Your means testing is an area where I think we're
going to need to see a lot more of because
the alternative is given spending presses, taxes are.
Speaker 3 (23:30):
Got to go up and no one wins. Then Hey,
Cameron Bagray, it's a really interesting debate slash discussion. I'm
sure it will continue, especially into the next election. Thanks
for your time, always appreciated here on the country and
I'll see you at Field Days.
Speaker 5 (23:45):
Oh, looking forward to it. I'll just drive it up
from Hamilton this morning.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of Progressive Farming clients.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
Good morning, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. You are listening
to the best of the country. It's brought to you
by Ravo Bank. We're growing a better New Zealand together.
Going to wrap it with two blokes with two of
the most important jobs in the country. I put it
to you. One's the Prime Minister and the others Miles Hurrell,
chief executive of Fonterra effectively our biggest company. Hey, talking
(24:28):
about Rabobank. They're excited to announce the launch of the
twenty twenty five Rabobank Good Deeds Competition, giving rural community
groups across New Zealand the chance to win a day's
labor and five thousand dollars in funding for their nominated
community rural project. The competition's been running annually since twenty
seventeen in conjunction with us here at the Country love
(24:50):
being involved in this and it aims to support and
celebrate incredible efforts of rural communities and enhancing their local areas.
Entries for the COPE competition Get it Right open tomorrow morning, Sunday,
the first of June, and rural community groups are encouraged
to submit their projects up for consideration via the website
rabobank dot co dot nz. The winning community group will
(25:13):
receive a dedicated day of hands on support, might even
chip in the South from Rabobank and someone from the
Country unless it looks like hard work and of course
that five thousand dollars to bring their project to life.
Up Next, we wrap it with Kristapha Luxen and Miles Hurrald.
Speaker 2 (25:32):
The Best of the Country with Rabobank the Bank with
local agribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities.
Speaker 3 (25:40):
Rabobank Wednesdays on the Country. The Prime Minister kicks off
the show today. He's got off as death bed to
chat to us. Wasn't fit enough to talk to the
hosk on Monday. He's still sulking about that. Prime Minister
Christopher Luckson.
Speaker 8 (25:55):
Well, you can't talking to Jamie McKay right. I mean,
it's absolutely fantastic, So no good to be with you.
MAT's selling much better. I just had a bit of
a rough Sunday and Monday, so but we're back in
the saddle, which is good. So I've been outselling the
budget yesterday and today, so I think there's been good
reaction to it or which has been fun.
Speaker 3 (26:11):
Look, I'm going to come back to the budget, especially
some of the talk around your investment allowance or investment boost.
Have you read in the Herald today an interesting story
about Jim Bolger, who's about to turn ninety, and I'll
tell you what he said. Luxon should tell Seymour to
shut up. He said, Winston's doing a good job and
(26:31):
he wants the age of national super to go to seventy.
Speaker 8 (26:36):
Well, listen, I wishn't happy birthday. I was talking to
Bill Birch last week and I know he's coming down
to celebrate Jim's birthday as well. But look, I think
your coalition government, you know, we're halfway through the term.
I think we've worked incredibly well. It's the first time
you've had a three party coalition. We're very united on
the core stuff. Obviously there's differences in different party policies,
but you know, the vast majority of what we're focused
(26:57):
on is about growth, growth, growth, again, the country movie
and focusing on what key he's interested in. So I think,
you know, I enjoy working with both your on.
Speaker 3 (27:05):
He's saying that you should tell Seymour to shut up
over MARI issues. Mainly he says Winston's doing a good job.
Do you need to tell Winston to shut up when
it comes to the age of eligibility for national super
because this is becoming a real national debate discussion argument
at the moment.
Speaker 8 (27:23):
Yeah. Look, I mean there's some things we're doing through
the budget around you know, resetting key, we save a
contribution rates, which I think is really good. That'll be
build bigger retirement savings. But I do think, you know,
we do have differences. You know, we've had a strong,
long standing policy we think we should list the age
of retirement from sixty five to sixty seven. The reason's
pretty simple, every ten years to Zealanders live another year
(27:44):
and a bit of life expectancy, which is great. And
you know, as many people would know out there working
in the workforce at sixty seven plus so and want
to continue to work so and other countries have already
moved to a pathway to sixty seven from sixty five,
so you know. But equally, we don't have political consensus
on it. Labour's dead set against it. New Zealand first
is dead set against it. So I suspect we'll go
(28:05):
to the election in twenty six with different party policies
on that point, and then in our MMP system we
form coalition governments based off the result that people give
us on election night, and then we have to make
it work. And that means in this case we don't
have agreement on that issue and we're unable to progress it.
But I think you ultimately we have to ask the
question because the cost of superannuation and the number of
(28:26):
working news on is supporting those that are retired is
changing over time. But you know, we have a national
party policy on that, which is we think we should.
Speaker 3 (28:32):
Find absolutely the population bell curve is working against you there.
Look the wash up from the budget. I think when
you turn up at field Days, you'll be greeted with
glee from some of the exhibitors there because we're already
hearing anecdotally there's a rush on utes, there's a rush
on tractors. So I think Field Days is going to
be very positive off the back of your investment tax boost.
Speaker 8 (28:57):
This is something I wanted to do for some time,
even before I got to politics, because you know, when
you look at what actually accelerates growth, it's the adoption
of more capital, more equipment, more technology, and so this
is an incentive for people to say, look, I was
thinking of buying that new tractor. In fact, I was
talking to a farmer in South Canterbury who was actually
just digested the policy and was actually planning this week
(29:19):
to go off and actually sort of buy a header
and a tractor at the same time. He didn't fully
do the tractor, but thought based off of this moving,
you know, you could write off twenty percent of the
asset in the first year. That was actually going to
move the cash flow analysis to make it actually a
positive thing to do, so, you know, and it was
with manufacturers yesterday. You know, in small medium enterprise, a
couple of hundred employees producing electrical stuff, and you know,
(29:41):
there's a huge opportunity to buy the equipment that's five
times more productives and the equipment that they've got in
their factory at the moment. So all of that's designed
to improve the productivity of New Zealand, to lift our
living standards and our income. So yeah, I'm really excited
about that's gone down a tree.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
A final question for you, we had Mike Leslie, chief
executive of Parmu on the show. Yes, he was pretty
unconvincing in defending Palmu's actions when it comes to carbon farming.
They're planting a lot of trees. Mark would argue they're
planting the right tree in the right place. But when
you see a very high functioning so I'm told pastoral
(30:17):
livestock station, mung A Mingy station and a repao are
going almost all into trees. This is flying in the
face of what you're trying to do, isn't it.
Speaker 8 (30:26):
Well, as you know, we've campaigned limits on farm conversions
and we have legislation in place this year, and then
we backdated to the fourth of December last year, so
particularly on a ban on luc one to six farmlanders.
You know. So as I understand that Palma've got quite
a lot of Class six or seven land. I thought
from memory when I last looked at it was maybe
(30:47):
fifteen percent of their land was in Class six and seven.
And so forestry on those for those purposes sort of
you can sort of buy. Obviously Palmer has sort of
both researching commercial goals, but we expect it to utilize
its land for the highest and best use and the
Palmer's irons wouldn't be supporting carbon only farming, as in locking.
Speaker 6 (31:09):
It up and leaving it.
Speaker 8 (31:10):
The revenue that they've made on carbon should be used
for just investments and technologies and fixing requirements and all
sorts of other Yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:16):
And that's all fine and dandy. But some of that
Class seven land they're planting in pine trees, I put
it to you it may be uneconomic to harvest that
in twenty or thirty years time.
Speaker 8 (31:28):
Yeah, well, I mean they shouldn't be just supporting carbon
only farming, which they're locking up and leaving it.
Speaker 5 (31:34):
They actually know they're not doing that.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
They're saying they're not doing that, But I'm just putting
it to you. I don't think they're setting a good
example from the government's point of view.
Speaker 8 (31:44):
Yeah, well, I mean our policy is pretty clear and
we would expect them ultimately to follow that policy too, obviously.
Speaker 3 (31:49):
Prime Minister Chris Luxeon always good to catch up with
you on the country on a Wednesday.
Speaker 8 (31:54):
Likewise, Jamie, you gave a great week the.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
Best of the Country with rubber back.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty year's global
agribusiness experience grow with Rubbobank.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
It is today's big news story, the Q three business
update from Fonterra, and the most eagerly awaited number was
the opening shot for the twenty five twenty sixth season.
The price range is from eight dollars to eleven dollars,
which is great, but somehow, Miles Hurrel and I'm struggling
with the maths on this. The midpoints ten dollars rather
(32:24):
than nine point fifty. Why is that?
Speaker 5 (32:26):
Yeah, I get a Jamie, Well, well, firstly, it's not
a midpoint, is it. I think that we're signaling here.
We feel very confident as we sit he today that
ten dollars is where we see the market both for
the year that we're in currently but also the year ahead.
But you know, there's still we're dealing in a volatile
world and the geopolitics out there at the moment. So
we're just signaling to our tour farmers that there might
(32:48):
be a little bit more downside than upside from where
we sit here. So not a midpoint where we're paying
our farmers on the basis that ten dollars is where
we see the year and will reflect that as year
goes on. But no, no, it's a pretty good start.
I think and the feedback I've there for farmers this
morning has been very positive.
Speaker 3 (33:06):
Well, I'm sure it is if you can get ten
bucks two years in a row. Some other industry commentators,
miles are suggesting that there could be a softening of
dairy prices in the second half of the twenty five
twenty sixth season, and there's a lot of stuff, as
you well know, happening out there in the world that
could cause that.
Speaker 5 (33:22):
Yeah, and that's fear that that, you know, the volatility
that we see out there dua politics and you know,
wars that are underway and tariffs and all these sort
of things that just just create uncertainty, I guess for
bys and so that's the bit that we need to
be mindful of. But I think when they're saying the
market will come off in the second half, you know,
the spot market at the moment is above the ten
(33:46):
dollars if you buyd on GDT on a spot basis,
and so that's probably a reflection of that. We do
see that coming back, but overall, still still a very
comfortable ten dollars as we close the books of this
time next year, you will.
Speaker 3 (33:58):
Take farmers care about price. The dividend price and the
share value and the return on or of capital. So
let's just go from the milk price, which is really
good to the potential dividend. You've upped the anti awe
but on what that could be. So that's going to
be another windfall for farmers.
Speaker 5 (34:19):
Yeah, and it just shows that despite a decent milk price,
that the team are focused and our jobs to get
a better return above the milk price and watch our
costs and focus and invest in the future, and the
team have done that, and so yeah, the returns for
the three quarters of this year are very positive. We
(34:39):
have narrowed the range for the full year with three
months ago, so that gives us some confidence of this
current year. We're a couple of months away from thinking
about what the year ahead looks like, and we'll talk
to the market at the right time. But you know,
the team of team are focused and hopefully we're seeing
that they're delivering and that's that. So I think reflective
in the year price as well.
Speaker 3 (34:57):
Now, so you've narrowed that a year and earnings range
to sixty five to seventy five cents per share. What
does the payout policy say? It's the midpoint of that,
it's seventy cents. What could potentially, Miles Hurell be a
final dividend for farmers.
Speaker 5 (35:14):
Well, I mean, to your point, sixty to eighty percent
as our guidance on that. So so farmers will work
out for themselves around where we see the outlook for
the full year, the position of our farmers, where we
see the strength of their balance. So all those things
will plan to Ultimately the decisions on the board will
make you come September that all those things are actually
looking quite quite positive. So farmers will make their own
(35:37):
sort of assessments. But we'll have to wait, unfortunately until
we end of September to get that number.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
Well, let me throw a number at you. Fifty cents. Well, yeah,
there you go.
Speaker 5 (35:45):
There's a numbers that started from Jamie Sill. See where
that lends on the twenty fifth of September, will we Now.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
I talked about a return on capital I shares, but
also a return of capital. Now this consumer divestment. You
didn't really come out and say much about that today?
Speaker 5 (36:03):
Is that?
Speaker 3 (36:03):
Like I mean, I'm throwing numbers at you again. Two
dollars a share? Could that possibly be the payback? To
Fonterra shareholders.
Speaker 5 (36:11):
Yeah, look, and it's again it's far too really to
start to talk about what that number looks like. And
so we are in the thick of that process as
as you should expect, and you know, it's not wise
for you to talk about that for both our shareholders
suspective in any potential buyers. But the dual tracks well advanced.
So that's that's the sale to a potential trade buyer
and also an initial public offering, So going down hard
(36:33):
on both of those and ultimately jobs to get value
back to our shaarholders. We have signaled a significant capital return,
so farmers will make their own again assessment of what
that looks like. But you know, hopefully towards the end
of the year, we'll be in a position to come
out to our farmers and say this is the likely
value we're going to get for it, this is the
this is the potential capital that we're going to send
(36:53):
back and do you support it. So you know, all
those things are tracking as expected at the moment, but
it's far to to sort of talk about a number
despite the fact that some have of.
Speaker 3 (37:03):
Course, yeah, of course, and myself included field days, I
put it to you, is going to be wild enough.
Buoyants the right word. It's certainly going to be positive
from the dairy farmer's point of view.
Speaker 5 (37:15):
Yeah, I think so it's been a relatively cup of
quiet field days if I can recall so, you know,
i'd like to think that that farmers are fe feeling boyant.
Speaker 8 (37:24):
You're moving.
Speaker 5 (37:25):
The oci cut yesterday is another sort of supporter of that.
I think in the fact we've got some decent milk
price and some earnings out there. I think it's a
bit of the food capital that farmers haven't spent for
the last couple of years. So maybe all all those
stars do align, but ultimately farmers make their own calls
on that.
Speaker 3 (37:42):
Miles Harrel, thanks for your time today on the country.
Congratulations on a good opening forecast shot and we'll see
you at field Days.
Speaker 5 (37:49):
Good. Thanks much, joy.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
The Best of the Country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (38:01):
Miles Hurral from Fonterra wrapping the Best of the Country.
I'm Jamie McKay. The show is brought to you by Rabobank.
Were Growing a Better New Zealand together, gonna leave you
with the boy band five. Keep on moving. For all
you farmers, dairy farmers out there who are moving farms,
cows and jobs. Good luck. You're keeping the nation pumping
quite literally, catch it back next weekends. It feels the
(38:24):
love is no meaning, but things all be around in
the end.
Speaker 9 (38:31):
Willars are dying you all the bees and birds are flying.
Speaker 1 (38:38):
Never let all goun a hold on and.
Speaker 9 (38:40):
Us up to the brick God, and you bull or
start bucking down.
Speaker 7 (38:50):
Down and much.
Speaker 6 (38:55):
You bond, just keeping.
Speaker 9 (39:03):
When the rainy days are dying. You gotta keep on,
keep on trying all the reason birds are flying.
Speaker 1 (39:10):
Never let good gotta hold on and that's up to
the break it down and keep move in. Don't stop rocking.
Jet when you're down and take your looker around. I
know it's not much, and it's okay.
Speaker 7 (39:26):
We keep on moving anyway. Jay last, when you're down,
pay and take around. I know it's not much, but
it's okay. Keep on moving many way. Get out when
you're down and take the looker around.
Speaker 1 (39:51):
I know it's not much, but it's okay.
Speaker 7 (39:55):
Keep on moving on anyway, get on not going there
and not be Jera to the bay and down carry
out to then not everywhere he go from there, not
(40:16):
to not to do from there, did not to the
noth
The best of the country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Grow with Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
DA and Good Morning New zeal And. My name's Jamie McKay.
This is the best of the country. It's brought to
you each and every Saturday morning here on News Talks.
They'd be by Rabobank. We're growing a better New Zealand together.
Kicking it off with eighties band A Thompson Twins starring
Kiwi Elana Curry in their number King for a Day
and I thought i'd play that because it is King's
(00:48):
birthday weekend. I hope you get a break during the
long weekend. I know a lot of farmers won't because
it's also moving Day or moving weekend for the dairy industry. Now.
King Charles seventy three became the oldest person to accede
to the British throne when he took the position upon
the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth in twenty two.
(01:10):
Happy unofficial birthday, Charlie. I'm going to kick it off
with Toby Williams. Federated Farmers Meat and Wool Chair has
launched a new campaign or the Fed SAB called SOS
Save our Sheep. Damien O'Connor is always up for a
bit of a scrap on the country. We had one
earlier in the week. I talked to Cameron Bagray ahead
of the ocr announcement on Wednesday, I think more importantly,
(01:31):
we talked about the government's new investment tax boost scheme
and the age of eligibility for national super an argument
that refuses to die. We've also got Christopher Luxen and
Miles Hurrell, of course. Miles Hurral the chief executive of Fonterra.
Big announcement on Thursday, a great opening forecast milk price
(01:52):
for the twenty five twenty six season. It's all on
the best of the country and it's all brought to
you by Rabobank.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
The best of the country with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Choose the bank with a huge network of progressive farming clients,
Ravo Bank.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Toby Williams kicks off the show from Federated Farmers and
Toby SOS Save our Sheep. How are you going to
do that? Good afternoon, yeah, Jamie, good afternoon.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
Well, it's up to the government to make some changes
and the critical ones here around the etes unings. Otherwise
we run the risk of, you know, I'm not having
a sheep industry anymore. And I think all the irony
in this whole thing, Jamie is last week when we
heard the budget come out, they talked about our export
read recovery.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
We are the only country in the world that allows
one hundred percent carbon offsetting through forestry within our etes.
Therein lies part of the problem, a good part of
the problem.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Yeah, it's really the main problem that and you know,
the never ending amount of units that are able to
be rested in it. So ATS is set up to
change behavior produece behavior, and the way it currently functions
is they can buy as many units as they're like
now and just keep care to them out. And so
to keep doing that, they keep planning more pines, don't
you reckon?
Speaker 3 (03:09):
There's an element of the Emperor's New Clothes about this
carbon offsetting system and the ets.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
Yeah, one hundred percent of it's really a government sponsored
ponzi scheme. And those people who have got it early
and continue to maybe get in now, you know, are
really reaping the benefits of it. But we aren't seeing
demands for pine trees due to years down the future
considering in the primary production at least anyway, forestry is
the one secret that's really struggling. And you know, we
should have been utilizing more of these trees. We've got
(03:39):
on more processing and making all these products. Now we
seem to have a housing shortage in Australia and New
Zealand and a pine tree excess, so surely the two should.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Be Now you have written an excellent opinion piece that'll
be on our website, The Country dot co dot NZ
and it's you, right, and I'm going to quote you say,
because this is well written, sheep are quickly becoming an
endangered species. Their main predators pines, pigs and poor government policy.
You go on to write, I'm only forty four and
(04:08):
in my lifetime alone, we've lost over two thirds of
our national flock.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
Yeah, it's a frightening number. Resonant. The first big really
came with rogenomics, and we can't argue that we had
a very inefficient sheep flock that we've turned it into
one of the most productive effashion flocks in the world.
Yet we can't keep productivity increasing at the rate we
have and maintain an industry that has jobs and rural
(04:35):
communities at its heart, so we need to have an
urgent changes to government policy to really make sure we
protect what we've got left.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Well, it's all very well, you shouting from the rooftops
save our sheep with your new campaign at Federated Farmers.
But as I said in the intro, how are you
going to do it? You're going to petition government to
change some of the rules.
Speaker 4 (04:58):
Yeah, we are. Again, we're pushing for easiest changes. We
have been through about four or five years now, and
we'll keep frogging the way through then. You know, they
went part of the way with their announcers back in December,
but we are you know, there's a workarounds people have
found around there, especially down in Southland and or to Targo,
that we're still really concerned about. And we're hoping to
meet with Race with an MPI about getting the rules
(05:19):
up so to make sure that only those people who
are actually intending properly, you know, in the fourth of
December to be planting those properties and pinetrees are able
to still do that.
Speaker 5 (05:29):
And sorry, you go, no, no, no, not at all.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
I was just inhaling and about to exhale, and you
stopped on me that the thing is a lot of
the pines. I mean, let's be honest about it. Let's
not sugarcoat this. That are being painted, that are being painted,
that are being planted right now aren't for forestry production
because as you pointed out, unfortunately forestry are fourth biggest
industry and a very important industry for the primary sector.
(05:55):
The returns aren't that flash at the moment. You wouldn't
be paying good money for land to plant, and if
your only income stream was production, forestry and the carbon
credits are very much the icing on the cake. But
we've got the settings wrong.
Speaker 4 (06:09):
Yeah, that's exactly right. It's a massive subsidy. I think
the best thing that ever happened to us, as mean
wall farmers and dairy farmers is when the subsidies came
off and we had to become more efficient. And you know,
with the carbon subsidy there, if people want to put
a pine tree in and it's the best use of
that man's going to get in the best return over
the next thirty years without carbon subsidies, then one hundred
(06:30):
percent that tree should go into there. But the problem is,
I haven't found a single person telling me in thirty
years time that they're going to be making tens of
millions of or billions of dollars out of forestry. It's
just not going to happen.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Yeah, Pines, pigs and poor government policy, and I think
the feral pests are a real issue along with the
fire danger under climate change, under global warming, that some
of these carbon forests will present in twenty or thirty
years time. And I I hate to say it, Toby,
and I'm a cynic on this one, but I reckon
(07:03):
there's a fair element of spray and walk away to
some of these plantations.
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Yep. And then that's what our big concerns are. There's
no you know, they can tell us you're blue in
the face, that they intend to other harvest them, that
they intend to prune them. The reality is completely different.
You know, while that carbon somebsit is there and you
can make a lot of money. It doesn't take much
for a change of direction from the company that owns
them to divest those resources that are overseas or have
(07:29):
a change of heart around what they want to do,
or actually they continue claiming their carbon after year sixteen
and hoping that ETS collapses and then they don't have
to pay the units back. That doesn't happen. If the
ets actually functioning properly and the price continues to rise,
then we are going to have these teas with people
just go well, I can't afford to cut these trees
down now, and they will walk away. And we've seen
(07:53):
you know what poor harvesting and you know mitslope failure
does on the East coast after get brown and hale,
and you know, we're suddenly going to start bringing this
out to communities all around New Zealand. That's you know,
Unfortunately for US, politics is a three year cycle and
they don't look thirty years of the future.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Okay, just finally, you're based in the Gisbon region there,
you're kind of the carbon farming capital of the country there.
Someone sent me Toby over the weekend and I'm just
trying to drag it up on my phone now, but
I can't multitask some pictures of it is it? Who
herew a station?
Speaker 6 (08:26):
Who?
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Who are you row a station? And some of that
land I'm looking at and the photos of the person
kindly sent to me is rolling at best sort of
country and I'm thinking that should be grazing an animal
to grow some meat or some milk or some fiber.
Speaker 4 (08:43):
Yeah, the irony of that fie. I ran a massive
campaign about five years ago to stop those farms trying
to be sold to an offshore company. And we even
had a position to go to Parliament and carry out
and came and collected it from us and took it
down there and we met with the primary reduction Selecuviitty
over this. But the hands are tied. That was sold
under the Special Forest guests, which thankfully has been booted.
(09:05):
But if that farm was anywhere else in news here
and not remote up East coast, it was close to
the town here, or it was going in the White Kado,
it would be in dairy farm. That's how good that
country is. It's just the fact that it's isolated and
the Special Forest yet gave six week rubber stamp to
come and put pine trees into it. And you know,
it's a tough blow over the East Coast. And I said,
we still cry about that now. And that was one
(09:27):
of one of our old family farms that my grandfather
sold through the dispensers in the late nineteen eighties.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
Wow, Toby Williams from Federated Farmers from earlier in the
week on the country, kicking off the SOS Save Our
Sheep campaign. Some of that land going to carbon farming
is just plain wrong. Up next, Damian O'Connor and Cameron
Bagriy before the end of the hour, the Prime Minister
and the bloke with one of the biggest jobs in
the country, Miles Hurral, chief executive of Fonterra. It's all
(09:57):
on the best of the country. It's brought to you
by Rabo Bank on your long King's Birthday weekends.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Yeah, the best of the country with Rabobank, the bank
with local agri banking experts, passionate about the future of
rural communities Rubbobank.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
His name is Damian O'Connor, Labour's Trade Minister. So it's
Palming North today. Tomorrow you're off to Masterton for day
one of the two day I'm calling it eleven with
Federated Farmers. This is the Labor Caucus or some of
the key Labour spokespeople meeting with Federated farmers. Is this
a complete waste of time?
Speaker 5 (10:36):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (10:37):
I mean you have to ask a Federated Farmers, I guess.
And it's been set up. It's a very useful forum.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Who instigated this, sorry Damien, who instigated it? Labor or Feds?
Speaker 6 (10:48):
Chris Hipkins, you know, I think reached out. I think
it was both sides agreed that they should sit down
and talk about these things as we go forward. And
I'll be there for half a day tomorrow and you
know there'll be some useful discussions. It is important we
will be back in government. Farmers, you know, are absolutely
cornerstone to our economy and will be for a long
time into the future.
Speaker 3 (11:10):
You've forgot that on the last term.
Speaker 5 (11:12):
No, well, I.
Speaker 6 (11:13):
Guess you know. Do we want to get back into
those old areas of debate.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
People. You can't come onto the show and be holier
than thou supporting the farming industry when you did your
best shafted, especially on the second you.
Speaker 6 (11:26):
Make some silly statements.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
No I don't.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
I'm I'm just echoing what I'm hearing from farmers.
Speaker 6 (11:31):
Well, if you know, perhaps you should just go and
listen to Mars or to nesle Fonterra A's bigg ast customers.
Now they've got European subsidies coming to help farmers to
move to a Laura missions farming system. We were saying
that that, and we put a billion dollars in one
budget into the rural sectors around some integrated farm plans
to get some waterway catchment groups, the whole lot to
(11:54):
move us forward. That's what we did. We committed to that.
But because you know, you were happy to kind of
kick the sand in our face in that area and say,
as the world is moving in that direction, we have
to keep up. If we want an opportunity and an advantage,
we can try and get ahead of that. At the
moment we're kind of slow lagguards, but we can get
(12:16):
there if we try harder.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
Yeah, he Walkinoa was a great idea, wasn't it.
Speaker 6 (12:20):
Well, I guess it was very challenging. And I said
that to the Prime Minister of the day that trying
to get sector leaders to sit down and agree on
anything and move forwards almost impossible. That remains the reality today.
But until we do that and work out best land
use more efficient operation and coordination cooperation, you know we're
(12:41):
going to fail because we're simply too small as individual
companies and so we have to cooperate as under New
Zealand Inc. To say that we have some of the
best systems in the world. We're trying to be better
and we'll produce the very best food and finder for
the world market.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
Sometimes I wonder if you believe in your harder hearts
what you sputing. But I'll get on to land use change.
Speaker 6 (13:02):
We have to. There's no alternative because actually, unless we
are the best, and that does.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
We we are the best, we are currently the best.
Speaker 7 (13:10):
We're no, we're not.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
So you you name a lower emissions producer of protein
than us around the world, Damien, who is it?
Speaker 1 (13:16):
There?
Speaker 6 (13:17):
There are other areas well who you have lower footprints
in different systems indoor system and.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
I'm talking about in a pastoral sense, who's a lower
emissions producer than New Zealand. You haven't got an answer
because there isn't one.
Speaker 6 (13:30):
Well, well, yes, in a pastoral system, but the vast
majority of protein producer the world is not in the
pastoral system. It's it's in indoor systems and in port production,
chicken production.
Speaker 3 (13:43):
Yeah, but you're telling us you want clean green and
the way of the future is pasture based production. You
can't have your cake and eat.
Speaker 6 (13:52):
There's an advantage in some of the markets if you
say it's pasture based people say there's more, there's more
ameaga trees, it's healthier for you, it's better, will pay
more for it. But we also want to have a
low carbon footprint over time. That's what Nesle is saying,
that's what Mars are saying. So we've got to combine
those attributes and get the premiums that we need because
we don't have a subsidized food or farming system. We
(14:15):
need to get those premiums back into farmer's pockets so
they remain comfitable.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
What is our biggest customer, China saying.
Speaker 6 (14:22):
How we've just heard today here from a couple of
people who live in market saying that China's moving in
that space is very very quickly. They've got massive inroads
and e vehicles for example, because they want to reduce
their carbon emissions. You know, they've got issues around electricity
production that I'm sure people will point out.
Speaker 3 (14:40):
A new coal fired station, a new coal fired power
station every week. That's what China is doing about reducing
It's a mission Stamian.
Speaker 6 (14:50):
I think that what you'll find is that will reduce
over time, just as their pollution has reduced. They are
very focused on that direction, and we have to keep up.
They've got very smart consumers who are looking at their food.
They've got you know, systems through pure codes and traceability
that you leave us for dead. And they were saying
(15:10):
that there's literally no use of money now. It's all
electronic communication and transactions over in a market that you know,
probably twenty years ago we thought was developing now way
ahead of us.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
Hey, let's just finish on dairy conversions in Canterbury. We're
hearing them, maybe up to fifteen of them. See that
didn't suit your kind of hey Woker Echonoa rhetoric line.
But surely if we're looking to double and I don't
know whether you support this, Damieno kind of if the
government's looking to double primary sect their exports in the
(15:42):
next decade, dairy farming has to do some heavy lifting.
What's wrong with the dairy conversion is as long as
it meets all environmental consents.
Speaker 6 (15:53):
Well, I guess you have to ask the people who
are living around Lakehood, you know, and around of the
rivers and trying to get water from some of the
aquifers weather you know, we can continue to increase. I
guess that the intensive dairy in Canterbury. I can't make
that judgment, but there are some indicators that we have
(16:14):
to look at the impacts of that, and yes, I
agree we should get more value for what we're doing,
not just do more. And that's I said that all
the way through as Minister. Just getting people to do more,
produce more is not necessarily the way forward. What we
need to do is get more for what we do
and that will lift the levels of productivity across our
(16:35):
economy which are still pretty low. In the egg area
it's quite high, but a lot of other areas we
have low productivity and we've got to change that.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Hey, are you going to Field Days? Up for another
scrap at field Days?
Speaker 6 (16:48):
Absolutely?
Speaker 2 (16:49):
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Speaker 3 (16:59):
CR andnouncement time this afternoon at two pm the new
or the fill in Reserve Bank governor what's his name,
Christian Hawksby. I think we'll make the announcement. We all
know it's a drop of twenty five basis points. But
cam Bagrey independent economists, the big question is is the
one or two more cuts after this is neutral three
percent or two point seventy five percent. Good afternoon.
Speaker 5 (17:23):
There's a little bit of, I guess, conjecture about where
neutral is where. What we know is that we're getting
into that sort of zone where monetary pilot policies neither
got the foot on the accelerator or the break, which
is sort of where you want to be when you've
got inflation under control around two percent. Look, we know
the economy there's a recovering, but it's still pretty weak.
(17:46):
There's going to be a decent injection from the dairy
sector over the next sort of twelve months, which will
be encouraging. But yeah, the inflation story as well is
a little bit too sighted on some levels. When you've
got weak demand, there's no pricing powers. The construction crisis
are being trimmed. It's tough in the retail land as well.
But there's other parts of the economy that are just
(18:07):
not economically sensitive. We're seeing pretty big inflation increases. You
look at local authority rates, you look at metal insurance,
you look at your gas, you look at your electricity bill.
I just see ports of walk and just put some
whopping charges into the freight industry as well, which are
consumers are going to end up paying down the pipeline.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Let's move on to the budget. Well, last week's budget
the investment boost tax credit effectively an additional twenty percent
depreciation to be able to be claimed in year one.
This is going to be a real kickstart, I would
think for productivity.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
Well potentially, I think it's going to be a pretty
big kick staff for some vehicle sales, and potentially a
few tractors are going to go out the door at
field days, because if you're front loading that sort of
tax deduction up front, it's a excuse to scramble a
little bit in regard to what you're going to spend
it on. Commercial buildings are included in it as well,
(19:04):
which will sort of scratch my head over that one.
The real big productivity kicker if we can get the
dial turning on your plant, machinery and equipment and some
of that on farm investment outside of the vehicles. So
I watch the space in regard to whether people said
to take it up move forward. Some sectors have got
(19:26):
cash flow at the moment that take advantage of that,
but cash is still pretty tight across the rest of
the economy.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
Yeah, you're right about commercial buildings. That's an interesting choice
because effectively that's not an appreciating asset like a tractor
or a truck.
Speaker 5 (19:40):
Yeah, exactly, Yeah, those things have tended to appreciate largely
driven drive construction costs. You're out of replacement value of
the items. We'll just see where it goes. Is it
going to magically turn the dial on New Zealand's productivity story?
The answer is none. We'll help around the edges. The
answer is yes.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
Want to finish on because I know that Brad Olsen
from Infometrics and Heather Duplessly Allen had a good scrap
on this one last night on ZB the age of
eligibility for National Super. I'm a pensioner nolkam. I get
paid National Super. I also get a winter energy payment.
I'm still working, I'm well paid. I don't need it.
I'm putting mine to a good use other than myself.
(20:23):
But the thing is, it is surely an entitlement. You
say it's not because I'm happy to wait till i'm
sixty seven. But when I'm sixty seven, I want my
entoldment because I think I've earned it well.
Speaker 5 (20:38):
I guess there's different interpretations over what's the role of
government in regard to supporting sports, support of communities, and
in my view is that the wealthiest debate, which is
a critical part of New Zone. It's a critical safety net.
We need to have it in place. But it's there
for the needy. It's not there for the greedy those
(21:00):
that have done well. It's a safety in debt to
help people out when they're in need. I think it's
a critical part of New Zealand's institutional, economic and social framework.
Speaker 3 (21:12):
But under your scenario, Cameron, aren't you punishing effectively people
who have worked hard all their lives, paid lots of
taxes with a view to having that benefit to enjoy
in their retirement. Does this incentivize people to do less.
Speaker 5 (21:27):
Well at the margin?
Speaker 7 (21:30):
Right?
Speaker 5 (21:30):
But I don't think you're going to be making your
decisions in your twenties to thirties. You're working a year
years based on what you're doing. In New Zealand. Superannuation
titlement could be at the age of sixty five or
sixty seven. The bottom line though, is Jamie, is that
the status quo it's not sustainable. Yeah, so you can
go back and have a look at the long term
fiscal projections. You have the last time treasury that the
(21:52):
statement in the long term fiscal position I've left unchecked.
The current state is quot and it's a combination of
musical superannuation and health expenditure. Is where you get ready
whacked if left unchecked, i e. We continue with the
status quo. Met government debt is going to go to
one hundred and eighty percent of GDP in the next
thirty to forty years. So what are the choices?
Speaker 3 (22:14):
Totally get that, but is it sustainable at sixty seven
years of age or do we eventually, as Jim Bolger
has suggested, move it to seventy.
Speaker 5 (22:23):
Well, yeah, presumably as life expectancy moves up, you'd expect
to turn a dial a little bit on New Zealand
superinnuation in titlement. I think there's other options we can
look at as well. You say, you've done really well
in your life, You've been paid a lot of money,
and you've got a pretty big Chevy Saver balance. Why
on earth should inuity income that you draw off your
(22:46):
Chevysaver balance not be taken off your New Zealand superparation
entitlement which is effectively means testin and we've already got that.
We've potentially got the mechanism in place. If you ever
looked at a couple of things we saw within the budget.
There was element of means testing which is coming through
for those eighteen nineteen year old kids that are on
(23:08):
a benefit. If they're living at home and their family's
got the means to support them, you're worshiped the government.
There was a means testing theme that came through with
Kiwi sober. If you're earning over a certain amount of money,
the Gun's not going to give you a thousand bucks.
Your means testing is an area where I think we're
going to need to see a lot more of because
the alternative is given spending presses, taxes are.
Speaker 3 (23:30):
Got to go up and no one wins. Then Hey,
Cameron Bagray, it's a really interesting debate slash discussion. I'm
sure it will continue, especially into the next election. Thanks
for your time, always appreciated here on the country and
I'll see you at Field Days.
Speaker 5 (23:45):
Oh, looking forward to it. I'll just drive it up
from Hamilton this morning.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
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Speaker 3 (24:07):
Good morning, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. You are listening
to the best of the country. It's brought to you
by Ravo Bank. We're growing a better New Zealand together.
Going to wrap it with two blokes with two of
the most important jobs in the country. I put it
to you. One's the Prime Minister and the others Miles Hurrell,
chief executive of Fonterra effectively our biggest company. Hey, talking
(24:28):
about Rabobank. They're excited to announce the launch of the
twenty twenty five Rabobank Good Deeds Competition, giving rural community
groups across New Zealand the chance to win a day's
labor and five thousand dollars in funding for their nominated
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seventeen in conjunction with us here at the Country love
(24:50):
being involved in this and it aims to support and
celebrate incredible efforts of rural communities and enhancing their local areas.
Entries for the COPE competition Get it Right open tomorrow morning, Sunday,
the first of June, and rural community groups are encouraged
to submit their projects up for consideration via the website
rabobank dot co dot nz. The winning community group will
(25:13):
receive a dedicated day of hands on support, might even
chip in the South from Rabobank and someone from the
Country unless it looks like hard work and of course
that five thousand dollars to bring their project to life.
Up Next, we wrap it with Kristapha Luxen and Miles Hurrald.
Speaker 2 (25:32):
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Speaker 3 (25:40):
Rabobank Wednesdays on the Country. The Prime Minister kicks off
the show today. He's got off as death bed to
chat to us. Wasn't fit enough to talk to the
hosk on Monday. He's still sulking about that. Prime Minister
Christopher Luckson.
Speaker 8 (25:55):
Well, you can't talking to Jamie McKay right. I mean,
it's absolutely fantastic, So no good to be with you.
MAT's selling much better. I just had a bit of
a rough Sunday and Monday, so but we're back in
the saddle, which is good. So I've been outselling the
budget yesterday and today, so I think there's been good
reaction to it or which has been fun.
Speaker 3 (26:11):
Look, I'm going to come back to the budget, especially
some of the talk around your investment allowance or investment boost.
Have you read in the Herald today an interesting story
about Jim Bolger, who's about to turn ninety, and I'll
tell you what he said. Luxon should tell Seymour to
shut up. He said, Winston's doing a good job and
(26:31):
he wants the age of national super to go to seventy.
Speaker 8 (26:36):
Well, listen, I wishn't happy birthday. I was talking to
Bill Birch last week and I know he's coming down
to celebrate Jim's birthday as well. But look, I think
your coalition government, you know, we're halfway through the term.
I think we've worked incredibly well. It's the first time
you've had a three party coalition. We're very united on
the core stuff. Obviously there's differences in different party policies,
but you know, the vast majority of what we're focused
(26:57):
on is about growth, growth, growth, again, the country movie
and focusing on what key he's interested in. So I think,
you know, I enjoy working with both your on.
Speaker 3 (27:05):
He's saying that you should tell Seymour to shut up
over MARI issues. Mainly he says Winston's doing a good job.
Do you need to tell Winston to shut up when
it comes to the age of eligibility for national super
because this is becoming a real national debate discussion argument
at the moment.
Speaker 8 (27:23):
Yeah. Look, I mean there's some things we're doing through
the budget around you know, resetting key, we save a
contribution rates, which I think is really good. That'll be
build bigger retirement savings. But I do think, you know,
we do have differences. You know, we've had a strong,
long standing policy we think we should list the age
of retirement from sixty five to sixty seven. The reason's
pretty simple, every ten years to Zealanders live another year
(27:44):
and a bit of life expectancy, which is great. And
you know, as many people would know out there working
in the workforce at sixty seven plus so and want
to continue to work so and other countries have already
moved to a pathway to sixty seven from sixty five,
so you know. But equally, we don't have political consensus
on it. Labour's dead set against it. New Zealand first
is dead set against it. So I suspect we'll go
(28:05):
to the election in twenty six with different party policies
on that point, and then in our MMP system we
form coalition governments based off the result that people give
us on election night, and then we have to make
it work. And that means in this case we don't
have agreement on that issue and we're unable to progress it.
But I think you ultimately we have to ask the
question because the cost of superannuation and the number of
(28:26):
working news on is supporting those that are retired is
changing over time. But you know, we have a national
party policy on that, which is we think we should.
Speaker 3 (28:32):
Find absolutely the population bell curve is working against you there.
Look the wash up from the budget. I think when
you turn up at field Days, you'll be greeted with
glee from some of the exhibitors there because we're already
hearing anecdotally there's a rush on utes, there's a rush
on tractors. So I think Field Days is going to
be very positive off the back of your investment tax boost.
Speaker 8 (28:57):
This is something I wanted to do for some time,
even before I got to politics, because you know, when
you look at what actually accelerates growth, it's the adoption
of more capital, more equipment, more technology, and so this
is an incentive for people to say, look, I was
thinking of buying that new tractor. In fact, I was
talking to a farmer in South Canterbury who was actually
just digested the policy and was actually planning this week
(29:19):
to go off and actually sort of buy a header
and a tractor at the same time. He didn't fully
do the tractor, but thought based off of this moving,
you know, you could write off twenty percent of the
asset in the first year. That was actually going to
move the cash flow analysis to make it actually a
positive thing to do, so, you know, and it was
with manufacturers yesterday. You know, in small medium enterprise, a
couple of hundred employees producing electrical stuff, and you know,
(29:41):
there's a huge opportunity to buy the equipment that's five
times more productives and the equipment that they've got in
their factory at the moment. So all of that's designed
to improve the productivity of New Zealand, to lift our
living standards and our income. So yeah, I'm really excited
about that's gone down a tree.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
A final question for you, we had Mike Leslie, chief
executive of Parmu on the show. Yes, he was pretty
unconvincing in defending Palmu's actions when it comes to carbon farming.
They're planting a lot of trees. Mark would argue they're
planting the right tree in the right place. But when
you see a very high functioning so I'm told pastoral
(30:17):
livestock station, mung A Mingy station and a repao are
going almost all into trees. This is flying in the
face of what you're trying to do, isn't it.
Speaker 8 (30:26):
Well, as you know, we've campaigned limits on farm conversions
and we have legislation in place this year, and then
we backdated to the fourth of December last year, so
particularly on a ban on luc one to six farmlanders.
You know. So as I understand that Palma've got quite
a lot of Class six or seven land. I thought
from memory when I last looked at it was maybe
(30:47):
fifteen percent of their land was in Class six and seven.
And so forestry on those for those purposes sort of
you can sort of buy. Obviously Palmer has sort of
both researching commercial goals, but we expect it to utilize
its land for the highest and best use and the
Palmer's irons wouldn't be supporting carbon only farming, as in locking.
Speaker 6 (31:09):
It up and leaving it.
Speaker 8 (31:10):
The revenue that they've made on carbon should be used
for just investments and technologies and fixing requirements and all
sorts of other Yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:16):
And that's all fine and dandy. But some of that
Class seven land they're planting in pine trees, I put
it to you it may be uneconomic to harvest that
in twenty or thirty years time.
Speaker 8 (31:28):
Yeah, well, I mean they shouldn't be just supporting carbon
only farming, which they're locking up and leaving it.
Speaker 5 (31:34):
They actually know they're not doing that.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
They're saying they're not doing that, But I'm just putting
it to you. I don't think they're setting a good
example from the government's point of view.
Speaker 8 (31:44):
Yeah, well, I mean our policy is pretty clear and
we would expect them ultimately to follow that policy too, obviously.
Speaker 3 (31:49):
Prime Minister Chris Luxeon always good to catch up with
you on the country on a Wednesday.
Speaker 8 (31:54):
Likewise, Jamie, you gave a great week the.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
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Speaker 2 (31:58):
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Speaker 3 (32:03):
It is today's big news story, the Q three business
update from Fonterra, and the most eagerly awaited number was
the opening shot for the twenty five twenty sixth season.
The price range is from eight dollars to eleven dollars,
which is great, but somehow, Miles Hurrel and I'm struggling
with the maths on this. The midpoints ten dollars rather
(32:24):
than nine point fifty. Why is that?
Speaker 5 (32:26):
Yeah, I get a Jamie, Well, well, firstly, it's not
a midpoint, is it. I think that we're signaling here.
We feel very confident as we sit he today that
ten dollars is where we see the market both for
the year that we're in currently but also the year ahead.
But you know, there's still we're dealing in a volatile
world and the geopolitics out there at the moment. So
we're just signaling to our tour farmers that there might
(32:48):
be a little bit more downside than upside from where
we sit here. So not a midpoint where we're paying
our farmers on the basis that ten dollars is where
we see the year and will reflect that as year
goes on. But no, no, it's a pretty good start.
I think and the feedback I've there for farmers this
morning has been very positive.
Speaker 3 (33:06):
Well, I'm sure it is if you can get ten
bucks two years in a row. Some other industry commentators,
miles are suggesting that there could be a softening of
dairy prices in the second half of the twenty five
twenty sixth season, and there's a lot of stuff, as
you well know, happening out there in the world that
could cause that.
Speaker 5 (33:22):
Yeah, and that's fear that that, you know, the volatility
that we see out there dua politics and you know,
wars that are underway and tariffs and all these sort
of things that just just create uncertainty, I guess for
bys and so that's the bit that we need to
be mindful of. But I think when they're saying the
market will come off in the second half, you know,
the spot market at the moment is above the ten
(33:46):
dollars if you buyd on GDT on a spot basis,
and so that's probably a reflection of that. We do
see that coming back, but overall, still still a very
comfortable ten dollars as we close the books of this
time next year, you will.
Speaker 3 (33:58):
Take farmers care about price. The dividend price and the
share value and the return on or of capital. So
let's just go from the milk price, which is really
good to the potential dividend. You've upped the anti awe
but on what that could be. So that's going to
be another windfall for farmers.
Speaker 5 (34:19):
Yeah, and it just shows that despite a decent milk price,
that the team are focused and our jobs to get
a better return above the milk price and watch our
costs and focus and invest in the future, and the
team have done that, and so yeah, the returns for
the three quarters of this year are very positive. We
(34:39):
have narrowed the range for the full year with three
months ago, so that gives us some confidence of this
current year. We're a couple of months away from thinking
about what the year ahead looks like, and we'll talk
to the market at the right time. But you know,
the team of team are focused and hopefully we're seeing
that they're delivering and that's that. So I think reflective
in the year price as well.
Speaker 3 (34:57):
Now, so you've narrowed that a year and earnings range
to sixty five to seventy five cents per share. What
does the payout policy say? It's the midpoint of that,
it's seventy cents. What could potentially, Miles Hurell be a
final dividend for farmers.
Speaker 5 (35:14):
Well, I mean, to your point, sixty to eighty percent
as our guidance on that. So so farmers will work
out for themselves around where we see the outlook for
the full year, the position of our farmers, where we
see the strength of their balance. So all those things
will plan to Ultimately the decisions on the board will
make you come September that all those things are actually
looking quite quite positive. So farmers will make their own
(35:37):
sort of assessments. But we'll have to wait, unfortunately until
we end of September to get that number.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
Well, let me throw a number at you. Fifty cents. Well, yeah,
there you go.
Speaker 5 (35:45):
There's a numbers that started from Jamie Sill. See where
that lends on the twenty fifth of September, will we Now.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
I talked about a return on capital I shares, but
also a return of capital. Now this consumer divestment. You
didn't really come out and say much about that today?
Speaker 5 (36:03):
Is that?
Speaker 3 (36:03):
Like I mean, I'm throwing numbers at you again. Two
dollars a share? Could that possibly be the payback? To
Fonterra shareholders.
Speaker 5 (36:11):
Yeah, look, and it's again it's far too really to
start to talk about what that number looks like. And
so we are in the thick of that process as
as you should expect, and you know, it's not wise
for you to talk about that for both our shareholders
suspective in any potential buyers. But the dual tracks well advanced.
So that's that's the sale to a potential trade buyer
and also an initial public offering, So going down hard
(36:33):
on both of those and ultimately jobs to get value
back to our shaarholders. We have signaled a significant capital return,
so farmers will make their own again assessment of what
that looks like. But you know, hopefully towards the end
of the year, we'll be in a position to come
out to our farmers and say this is the likely
value we're going to get for it, this is the
this is the potential capital that we're going to send
(36:53):
back and do you support it. So you know, all
those things are tracking as expected at the moment, but
it's far to to sort of talk about a number
despite the fact that some have of.
Speaker 3 (37:03):
Course, yeah, of course, and myself included field days, I
put it to you, is going to be wild enough.
Buoyants the right word. It's certainly going to be positive
from the dairy farmer's point of view.
Speaker 5 (37:15):
Yeah, I think so it's been a relatively cup of
quiet field days if I can recall so, you know,
i'd like to think that that farmers are fe feeling boyant.
Speaker 8 (37:24):
You're moving.
Speaker 5 (37:25):
The oci cut yesterday is another sort of supporter of that.
I think in the fact we've got some decent milk
price and some earnings out there. I think it's a
bit of the food capital that farmers haven't spent for
the last couple of years. So maybe all all those
stars do align, but ultimately farmers make their own calls
on that.
Speaker 3 (37:42):
Miles Harrel, thanks for your time today on the country.
Congratulations on a good opening forecast shot and we'll see
you at field Days.
Speaker 5 (37:49):
Good. Thanks much, joy.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
The Best of the Country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients Rabobank.
Speaker 3 (38:01):
Miles Hurral from Fonterra wrapping the Best of the Country.
I'm Jamie McKay. The show is brought to you by Rabobank.
Were Growing a Better New Zealand together, gonna leave you
with the boy band five. Keep on moving. For all
you farmers, dairy farmers out there who are moving farms,
cows and jobs. Good luck. You're keeping the nation pumping
quite literally, catch it back next weekends. It feels the
(38:24):
love is no meaning, but things all be around in
the end.
Speaker 9 (38:31):
Willars are dying you all the bees and birds are flying.
Speaker 1 (38:38):
Never let all goun a hold on and.
Speaker 9 (38:40):
Us up to the brick God, and you bull or
start bucking down.
Speaker 7 (38:50):
Down and much.
Speaker 6 (38:55):
You bond, just keeping.
Speaker 9 (39:03):
When the rainy days are dying. You gotta keep on,
keep on trying all the reason birds are flying.
Speaker 1 (39:10):
Never let good gotta hold on and that's up to
the break it down and keep move in. Don't stop rocking.
Jet when you're down and take your looker around. I
know it's not much, and it's okay.
Speaker 7 (39:26):
We keep on moving anyway. Jay last, when you're down,
pay and take around. I know it's not much, but
it's okay. Keep on moving many way. Get out when
you're down and take the looker around.
Speaker 1 (39:51):
I know it's not much, but it's okay.
Speaker 7 (39:55):
Keep on moving on anyway, get on not going there
and not be Jera to the bay and down carry
out to then not everywhere he go from there, not
(40:16):
to not to do from there, did not to the
noth
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