The Country 04/06/25: Mike McIntyre talks to Jamie Mackay

Jarden’s Head of Commodities comments on the first GDT auction of the new season - “The positive momentum that we saw coming into the season, right up until the penultimate event, now looks to be lost with the overall event falling 1.6% and several of the key individual products coming under pressure.  WMP -3.7%, SMP -1.1%, AMF 1.4%, Butter 0%, BMP -6.1% and Cheese -4.2%.”

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
So you haven't heard this song for ages. This is
a Kiwi band yep, it is indeed evermore, There we
go on a global running day. I don't know how
I segue from running into Mike McIntire, Mike, back in
the day, where you are runner? Hang on, let me
turn your mic, let me turn your phone fader up.
Back in the day, Mike, I'll repeat the question where

(00:26):
you are runner?

Speaker 2 (00:27):
I was, but I did my head probably about fifteen
years ago. So not a lot a lot of running
in recent times.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
Well, never mind, Okay, let's have a look at that
global dairy trade auction overnight down one point six percent,
perhaps the worrying number, even though it was possibly predicted.
Wholework powder down three point seven percent. Not an ideal
start to the new season, Mike. But you're saying the
still plenty of fat in the system. Current spot price

(00:55):
is sitting above eleven dollars.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
Yeah, I think that's probably right. If you's a sixty
currency and homewant powder around that forty one forty two
hundred level, you know it's going to pop around around
that sort of eleven dollar mark, and you know, just
above the guidance at vroon Terry gave last Thursday, you know,
a why guidance that it was you know, eight to
eleven dollars. But you know what we might have predicted

(01:18):
the prices fallen where they did last night. It's obviously
not what we expected, not what we hoped. Sorry, you know,
we wanted to keep that momentum going that we saw
at the back end of last season.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
China was an active buyer, which is great news. What
happened to Southeast as you're in the Middle East.

Speaker 2 (01:33):
I guess they're just looking forward to the peak where
we're going to see a lot of milk come out
to New Zealand. So possibly stepping back and saying, okay,
the back end of last season, you know, supply was tight,
so we didn't buy. Prices ran up quite high, and
you know, regardless, but we'll step back now and just
wait and see if prices do ease when we've got
a lot more volume come on board. And I think

(01:54):
that's a pretty sensible approach. You know, I think both
the North Island so file and should start reasonably well.
But again, you know, a wet winter could put pay
to that.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
Where are the futures markets sitting at the moment for
twenty five, twenty six.

Speaker 2 (02:10):
Yeah, so we opened today at nine to eighty, so
just down four cents on yesterday's clothes. I think there's
a chance of further weakness throughout the day. You know,
people would have been looking at that ten dollar midpoint,
or farmers would have been and saying, well, the ten
dollar price and saying, okay, well that's a reasonable sort
of level. Futures trading a little bit below that. But
then just seeing a GEDDT like we saw last night,
you know, still see now that there's an opportunity for

(02:33):
things to fall further. You know, we might see some
activity today. I would think around that that low nine eighties,
you know, late nine seventy March.

Speaker 1 (02:43):
What's your gut feeling for the season ahead. I know
it's a silly question to ask in some ways, because
no one knows what's going to happen, least of all
Donald Trump. But what would you say, I mean, if
you were if you were a farmer, do you think
you can bank on close to a ten dollar payout? Again?

Speaker 2 (03:00):
You know, if I was a farmer, I'll be locking
my prices. I mean, That's what I'll be doing. And
so I would be getting close to a ten dollar price.
You know, farmers are naturally optimistic given so much as
outside of their control, but I'd be managing that risk
and that's just the way I'd look at it. But
do I think this year will be another good season?
Obviously there's a lot of water to go under the bridge,

(03:20):
but on reasonably confidence unlike the last couple of years,
that we'll see good demand out of China. So you know,
cast a memory back to twenty twenty one and they
bought eight hundred thousand tons of homeal powder, and you know,
we briefly thought that could be the new normal. Well
obviously that didn't turn out to be the case. But
the last couple of years they've only bought four hundred
thousand tons of home more powder, and so again I'm

(03:42):
not sure that's going to cut the mustard with them.
Given that local milks play over there has eased over
the past year. I think there was ten consecutive months
of decline. So I expect China to come back. And
as we know from you know from the past that
they've been a big supporter of New Zealand price New
Zealand airy and obviously then that flows through into New Zealand,
milk price and.

Speaker 1 (04:03):
What's today like in Auckland? Is my plane going to
have trouble landing?

Speaker 2 (04:07):
You won't have any trouble landing, but you won't be
able to see too much on the descent. I wouldn't
think it's pretty overcast and actually drizzling a bit now
as well.

Speaker 1 (04:14):
Okay. Mike McIntyre, head of Commodities for Jardin, thank you
as always for your time