The Country Full Show: Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Jamie Mackay talks to Christopher Luxon, Jane Smith, Mike McIntyre, Ben Picton, and Phil Duncan.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie mckue Thanks to Brent You're specialist in
John Dee Machinery.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
Good afternoon, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This is the Country.
It's brought to you by brand Love Kate Bush Today.
Believe it or not. According to Michelle, my producer is
global running day, So get out and amongst it. Whether
it's not to flash around the country. We might update
whether a wee bit later in the hour if I
can squeeze and Phil duncan. But we've got a full

(00:55):
dance card today. We're going to kick it off with
the Prime Minister. Caught up with them a wee bit
earlier this morning and good on them, I say, or
I said to him for getting stuck into Wokes to
UK climate scientists. The PM to kick off the show,
Jane Smith North Otago Farmer will no doubt to be
supportive of the Prime Minister's actions there. Plus, we're also

(01:18):
going to have a look at that Federated Farmer's Banking survey.
Mike McIntyre is Jardine's head of Commodities. Have a look
at the first Global Dairy Trade auction of the new season.
Wasn't that flash, although the futures market did predict it
to be fair so down one point six percent, perhaps
more worryingly, and should we be worried about this whole

(01:38):
milk hat powder down three point seven percent after a
pretty strong run in the past few months. Ben Pickton
as Rabobank's senior macro strategists. So we're going to have
a look at falls and the OCR and GDT and
what the OECD, yes it's acronym day is doing with
its forecast for the world to con And as I said,

(02:00):
if I get time Phil Duncan, it's all on the
Country and it's all brought to you by Brent a
PM kick off the show Wednesdays on the Country, The

(02:21):
PM kicks off the show. So here's the go Okay.
More than twenty five international climate change scientists have written
an open letter to Christopher Luxeen accusing the government of
ignoring scientific evidence. Christopher Luxeon, I say to you, good
on you for telling the Wokes to UK climate scientists
to send their letters to other countries. That's good stuff.

Speaker 3 (02:44):
Well, I mean it's just like I got no time
for it at all, because you know, we are currently
the most carbon efficient farmers in the world. If you
shut down all of his ZEIWN farming, you just literally
make global greenhouse gas emissions worse. It's the engine room
of the New Zealand economy and the other call things.
Just like the last one hundred and fifty years, we
have an awesome pipeline of science and technology which will

(03:05):
help us be more productive and actually a lot a
lot more carbon efficient as well. So that's all coming
down the pike. It's for real, it's happening. And so
you actually want more production in New Zealand after to
lower global greenhouse gaes submission. So you know, So I
think we're getting into a world where we can say
we're the most carbon efficient. We've got a great science

(03:25):
technology through that we will actually be able to increase
production in this country. And that's where we should go to.

Speaker 2 (03:29):
When you're going to set your methone targets.

Speaker 3 (03:32):
Shortly. Obviously, we've had two reviews, obviously one from the
Climate Commission, obviously in an independent one. We've got other
advice as well, and we're close to that. It'll be
a matter of months, Yeah, a couple months.

Speaker 2 (03:43):
I watched one news last night, as Mikey Sherman breathlessly
declared it a shock pole result, and I'm looking at
the results and thinking, well, Labor and National are down
a couple of points, and NAT's are still at thirty four.
Where's the shock? And that the only shock that I
got was that twelve percent of the population is silly
enough to vote for the Greens alternate budget.

Speaker 3 (04:03):
Look, I think that's as simple as this. There's poles
up the wazoo, right, and there's lots of different poles,
and they do different things, and they anyway, you can
argue that all day long. I literally do not care
about that stuff, because you know, we're elected in twenty
twenty three, and we'll get re elected again in twenty
twenty six, when New Zealanders have a chance to think
about it, and the choice will be pretty clear. You know,
we are you better off than you were three years ago?

(04:25):
Do you have people actually competent enough to run the
economy or are you going to throw the keys back
to the last experience we had with Labor and the
Greens into party Maori. And I just think, you know,
my job is to stay very very focused on getting
stuff done for Keywis and sorting stuff out and cleaning
up the mess. And ultimately, if we do our job
right and we deliver, they'll make their decision. And that's
the only pole I care about.

Speaker 2 (04:46):
You realize your greatest allies are the Greens into party MARII.

Speaker 3 (04:51):
Well, I mean it's just I mean, you think about it.
You're seriously got a table. You know, the alternative would
be Hipkins, MARRAMC. Davis and Chloe swarbrick RAWI. You know
why Teddy you got Tebi a packet. Imagine the five
of them sitting around the cabinet room discussing economic policy.
If you thought it was bad with a sole charge
labor government that ran deet up one hundred and twenty
billion dollars in there for inflation and interesst rates and

(05:13):
put us into recession, just imagine the chaos that ensues
with those five leaders coming together. You know, we've got
a three party coalition and I think people, we've demonstrated
people we can make it work. Yeah, we have differences,
but we agree a lot on a large part of
their Gendern't all right?

Speaker 2 (05:28):
How's the love and going with the government coalition? Because
while the old Winston. You've got to hand it to him,
he said, to see more, ol go Deputy Prime Minister first,
you can go second. This is playing right into the
Winston Peter's handbook. I mean he's let off the chain
for the last eighteen months heading into the election.

Speaker 3 (05:45):
Look, I think what people as I said from day one,
we're doing something very different and this is the reality
of MMP. This morning, I've woken up and the Dutch
government has collapsed after a year with a four party coalition.
They have exactly the same system as us. Right, so
you know, the reality is the Zealand people, rightly or wrongly,
chose an MMP system. We've had several goals as saying
that what you want they've said yep. So then they

(06:05):
vote for us, and then we have to make it work.
And then you've got to try and find a way
to get coalition and government to be as stable as
possible so that actually you can get things done for
New Zealanders. If you don't, you just keep having elections
every year. Basically is what happens around the world with
MMP type systems if they're unstable. And so the reality
for us is, look, we agree on about ninety five
percent of the stuff, you know, grow the economy, restore

(06:26):
or in order better health education. There are differences also
between the parties, and I want enough space where everybody,
you know, Winston and David will say things different from me.
I lead the National Party, obviously Prime minis for a
coalition government, you know, and as minor parties they need
to know obviously have space to talk to their constituents,
and they do have differences from us from time to time.
But you can manage that if you give everyone enough

(06:46):
space within that within that coalition government. And I think
that's what I'm proud of what we've built so far.

Speaker 2 (06:51):
Sam and Brown has warned Land Corp and in z
Posts that they're not performing, and as we discussed last week,
I think there are some issues around Land Corp. I
would argue they're improving their performance. But should the government
be in the business of running a state farm.

Speaker 3 (07:07):
Well, what we've said is we wouldn't undertake our set
sales this three year period because essentially we need to
focus on getting the fundamentals fixed and sort of and right.
But Simeon's quite right to call these enterprises that the
government and the taxpayer Ultimore has an interest and to say,
we expect performance out of you as well. We're expecting
performance out of public service, we expect performance out of

(07:28):
state own enterprises as well. So, you know, I think
it's a really good shot to say, hang on, we've
got dairy and red meat.

Speaker 1 (07:34):
Now.

Speaker 3 (07:35):
Dairy's up four and a half billion and exports, red
meats up one point two billion, hawts up a billion
in exports in the last twelve months. We're making some
good progress and primary inties. If you can't run state
farms well in that environment, there's some serious questions to
be asked. So I think he's doing the right thing
by pushing and challenging them to perform better.

Speaker 2 (07:53):
Have you registered his book yet? Do you think she's
in denial over what kindness did to our economy or
was she misjudged?

Speaker 4 (08:01):
Look, I haven't read it.

Speaker 3 (08:02):
I frankly got other things I got to do and
sort out. I saw how the movie ended, and it
was a financial pain and chaos and nothing got delivered.
So you know, that's my job is to, I guess,
deal with the aftermath of it all, and that's what
we're fixing.

Speaker 2 (08:15):
It's not bad from the pr department. I saw how
the movie ended.

Speaker 5 (08:20):
That's how I feel about it.

Speaker 2 (08:21):
Do you focus group that?

Speaker 3 (08:23):
No, mate, we don't have time. We've got a country
to sort out. They've got things to get fixed for people,
and we're cracking on.

Speaker 2 (08:32):
You have got time to go to Field Days next week.
In fact, this time next week we'll be chatting at
field Days. What does Field Days mean for you?

Speaker 6 (08:40):
Oh?

Speaker 3 (08:40):
Look, I mean it's a fantastic event. And actually I
want it to get bigger and bigger. And I've actually,
when I've been overseas, been encouraging world leaders to come down,
and so I was in Britain try to encourage the
Agriculture Minister to come down not this year but next year.
I quite like us to think about what else we
could build around it, with respect to some of the
diplomacies around our trade agenda, in particular, because I think

(09:02):
I want people understand where the best in the world,
most carbon efficient in the world. But I'm looking forward.
There's a great science for Farmer's Hub, what you might remember,
and it keeps getting bigger and better every year. There's
some really cool innovation and I love the innovation because
when you keep embracing innovation. That's how the sector keeps growing.
I think frankly, we saw it on wall you know,
thirty something years ago we stopped the levy, but obviously

(09:23):
we just stopped innovating as well. And so yeah, there's
things we can do around procuring wool and all that
good stuff. But actually that's a great product. We need
more innovation in that sectorm like we've seen in dairy
around some of the products that are now sold to
the world. Obviously we'ural support trust's going to catch up
with them. They do amazing work. And then just to
meet lots of Keywason actually is interesting farmers I've spoken to.

(09:43):
I spoke to a guy timarus I was like optash
person and he was going off to buy a tractor
and a new head of because he basically said, you know,
that investment boost stuff has gone down to treat in
the rural community. So you know, I'm just keen to
get a sense of you know, now people hopefully've got
confidence inflations, low trust rates for coming down. The economy
is growing again, export lead recovery, primary industries, and investment

(10:05):
boost to encourage people to buy new assets would be
I'm keen to see that working.

Speaker 2 (10:10):
Well, catch you in seven days time, Prime Minister. Thanks
for your time.

Speaker 6 (10:14):
Thinks may have a great weak you take care.

Speaker 2 (10:17):
Oh well seventeen after twelve. You are worth the country.
Is something we prepared a wee bit earlier. This morning
on Global Running Day, Michelle Watts wandered in here. Had
to make my own tea today? What's the world coming to? Michelle?
Didn't I buy you my winter energy heating coffee this morning?
Let me turn your micon.

Speaker 7 (10:36):
Yeesh, you did. I didn't think you're going to give
me a writer of reply then for a second.

Speaker 2 (10:39):
Well I forgot to turn your micon. So what are
you doing for Global Running Day? Because you're a keen runner?

Speaker 7 (10:45):
Ah, the weather's not to flash out there, but I'll
do something later on.

Speaker 2 (10:49):
I think I'm a bit worried about the weather, and
that's why i want to speak to Phil Duncan, because
I've got a fly to Auckland the SARV and I've
got a wee message a text from me in New
Zealand saying they might have difficult landing in Auckland. Must
be a bit rough up there. Anyhow, we'll do our best.
It's a first world problem. Up next Jane Smith, north
Otago farmer Mike McIntyre on that Global Dairy Trade auction

(11:11):
result predictable but not that flash for the first one
for a new season and being picked an out of
Sydney's Rabobank office. And I'm going to try and squeeze
Pel Duncan in as well, because it looks like winter's
well and truly here on Global Running Day. She is

(11:41):
a north Otago farmer, former winner of the Balanced Farm
Environment Towards Jane Smith joins us on the country. Jane,
I know you didn't hear the interview that we've displayed
with the Prime Minister, but I say good on Christopher
Luxen for telling the Wokes to UK climate scientists to
send their letters to other countries after they'd written an
open letter to them complaining about US ignoring scientific evidence

(12:06):
when it came to reducing methane. What do you reckond Good.

Speaker 8 (12:10):
Afternoon, Jamie. Well, that sounds like music to my ears actually,
and well done for lux No stop calling him lux flakes.
He really sounds like he's really the nallum Headea and
it's exactly what we've known for a long time in
New Zealand is forging its own way in regards to this,
and simply what they had to say was a lot
of hot air. Of course, in reality, it's just trying
to take the heat off what the EU hasn't done

(12:33):
in terms of gross emissions in terms of fossil fuels.
And again it's the unfortunate news is for them, and
this might make an exciting headline, is that we've already delivered.
We are already delivering every single day in terms of
our meathane emissions. And again that doesn't sound exciting, but
this unhinged obsession with naturally food producing emissions needs to stop.

(12:53):
I mean, of course we've got a high per care
for the rate of natural biogenic emissions. We've got a
low population coupled with high food production, so and again
that that is absolutely needs to be put to bed.
Isn't it strange, Jamie that methane seems more targeted these
days than mith and phetamine. You know, we've got less
three minutes in the world now than we have before
the Industrial revolution. As you know, sheep down fifty eight

(13:17):
percent twenty one, twenty four, and so I'd love to
extrapolate that out, Jamie, and I will do that when
I get some time actually to put that into the
equivalent cars off the road and you know, farming New
Zealand farmings that are real crossroads at the moment. And
I've been thinking about this a lot lately. You know,
we either go the nature way or the more nuclear way.
And the EU seems to be absolutely as I said,

(13:40):
ob ceased with this high interference using man made energy
and feed lot food production, et cetera. And that couldn't
get further away from where I'm standing right now, Jamie,
six hundred meters above sea level. We're harnessing the sunlight
and photosynthesis to produce pasture and tender then to naturally
raise protein. And New Zealand needs to decide, Jamie, we're

(14:00):
either claiming pasture feed naturally raised or we are going
down the road of you know, the biotech feed editive
unnecessary vaccines and boulduses. Because actually it's really unique what
we're doing. And I'm not anti science or progress. I
want technology on the farm, so smart collars, electronic tags,
weighing systems, et cetera. But I don't want technology in

(14:21):
my food, you know, pasture or peatrie just dish Jamie,
we need to decide.

Speaker 2 (14:26):
Hey, have you seen I'm sure you've cast your eye
over at the Federated Farmers the latest banking survey.

Speaker 8 (14:33):
Yes, I did see that, Jamie, and I know it
wasn't great reading back in December, and I see sort
of bounced up a bit distance in and I think
also I think the banks need to be careful they
don't take too much credit for it, because also farming
has changed a lot in terms of just the positivity
outdeas since it was you know, as you compare it
to pre Christmas. I think the banks do have their

(14:54):
tail between their legs, which isn't a bad thing, because
there's been a hell of a mental health burden and
that's probably been massively under reported in terms of the
structure of getting the pressure from banks. But certainly I
thought it's hitting in the right tradictory and the right direction.
And it also just as callout has been really good,
and so I congratulate SAIDs for the work that they've
done on that and individuals that help them do that.

(15:18):
And let's hope communication and in that trust. We always
say in our farming operation, no matter who we deal with,
be it a bank, or a vista or a farm supplier.
You're not always going to get the best deal all
of the time, but you want to know that they've
got your back, and especially in our so producing non
subsidized sector, we need to know that because we're highly
sensitive to all of those scenarios in terms of pressure

(15:40):
and pricing and the cost of production, and so we
want to have that mutual trust and we have to
head forwards and our seat to Jamie.

Speaker 2 (15:49):
The standout number for me was on overdraft interest rates.
They've dropped off the back of drops in the OCR obviously,
but Rabobank offered the lowest seven point three b and
Z remains the highest at nine point seven percent. How
can there be effectively two and a half percent difference
between two banks. I call it profiteering.

Speaker 8 (16:11):
Yeah, it does seem really strange, Jamie. And of course
all all the banks are there to make a profit
and it is a little bit dangerous sometimes to be
kept comparing one off interest rates, et cetera. But it's
again that lack of trust because as farmers, we're just
busy trying to do the right thing, keep the GDP
rolling out in the farm. And to feel like you
need to be checking your interest rates against your neighbors
and other banks every single day is not a nice feeling.

(16:34):
And I think again banking has moved away from that
sort of personal factor at times to more of a
transactional one, and so we need to sort of bring
that back and actually bring bring the bankers into the fold.
And as I said that, it all comes down to trust.
So yeah, hopefully it's onwards and up with Jamie, and
farmers just hopefully feel like they've got a little bit

(16:54):
more power because it was also that power and balance
that was the really scary thing Jamie.

Speaker 2 (16:58):
Yeah, And to be fair, these banking survey, which was
carried out in May, was a response from seven hundred farmers,
so maybe a few described Benz farmer clients may have
skewed the numbers a wee bit. But I still argue
banks across the board are ripping farmers and business people
off on OD rates.

Speaker 8 (17:18):
Oh exactly, Jamie, And we need to be very very
careful that we do push back on that. And again
I'll come back to those two words, trust and transparency.
Just as our consumers trust us to have transparency and
what we are producing, we actually need that trust in
house with those that we align ourselves with. So again
take that the power farmers and make sure that we

(17:39):
are we are asking those hard questions because again, this
is going to make such a difference to our product
or a profitability, because our productivity is a country is
really concerning, and you see what's happening worldwide is the
same thing. We actually need to up our productivity. And
all of these these climate change et cetera. Issues at banks,

(17:59):
and again that's she increased their costs as well because
they've turned their mind to interfering in areas and people's
businesses that they should never have been in. You know
why banks were ever putting money into the agritech space
in terms of agri zero et cetera, which is a
venture capital scheme that is concerning. So to just get
out of that because all of those things are the

(18:20):
trojan horse. You look at the Paris Accords, the man
lost or forestation et cetera, a trojan horse to actually
come up against our productivity. And you look at the
two thousand and tur hundred and sixty thousand hittes that
we've planted and pine trees. You know, it's not the
pine tree's fault. It's actually because we've signed up to
the Paris Accord and the Methane Global Methane Targets, et cetera.

(18:42):
All of actually what that work against our unique profile
and museument exactly what we'll see in that letter. But
turn it around the right way and say eachy, consumers
and food producers are asking a lot more. And it's interesting,
Cameron Bagri said the other day. All the fancy trade
deals in the world are never going to help if
you run out of land, you run out of stock,
you run out of farmers, and those that are remaining

(19:06):
are never going to get a premium that's large enough
to be lumped with the extra cost of production. So
let's go back to basics and again I choose pasture
over a Petri dish.

Speaker 2 (19:15):
Okay, I think we know where you stand, Jane. Sorry,
I am out of time. I would say I'll see
you at field Days, but I think you've got a
bullsale next week on your North Otago farm. Hey, thanks
as always for your time standing six hundred meters above
sea level. Thanks Jammy, it is twenty nine and after twelve.
Thank you, Jane Global running day. More about that later,
but up next it's Mike McIntyre from Jardin, head of Commodities.

(19:38):
Get it right. We'll have a look at that jedt
auction overnight, Ben Pickton, Phil Duncan to come on the country. Yes,
so you haven't heard this song for ages. This is
a Kiwi band yep, it is indeed. Evermore, there we

(20:01):
go on a global running day. I don't know how
I segue from running into Mike McIntire. Mike, back in
the day, where you a runner? Hang on, let me
turn your mic, let me turn your phone fader up.
Back in the day, Mike, I'll repeat the question where
you a runner?

Speaker 5 (20:17):
I was, but I did my head probably about fifteen
years ago. So not a lot a lot of running
in recent times.

Speaker 2 (20:23):
Well never mind, okay, let's have a look at that
global dairy trade auction overnight down one point six percent,
perhaps the worrying number, even though it was possibly predicted.
Holework powder down three point seven percent. Not an ideal
start to the new season, Mike. But you're saying the
still plenty of fat in the system. Current spot price

(20:45):
is sitting above eleven dollars.

Speaker 5 (20:48):
Yeah, I think that's probably right. If you's a sixty
cent currency in horant powder around that forty one forty
two hundred level. You know, it's going to pop around
around that sort of eleven dollar march and you know,
just above the guidance at five Terry gave last Thursday,
you know, and a wide guidance that it was you know,
eight to eleven dollars. But you know what, we might
have predicted the prices falling where they did last night.

(21:09):
It's obviously not what we expected, not what we hoped. Sorry,
you know, we wanted to keep that momentum going that
we saw at the back end of last season.

Speaker 2 (21:16):
China was an active buyer, which is great news. What
happened to Southeast Asia in the Middle East.

Speaker 5 (21:23):
I guess they're just looking forward to the peak where
we're going to see a lot of milk come out
to New Zealand. So possibly stepping back and saying, okay,
the back end of last season, you know, supply was tight,
so we didn't buy. Prices ran up quite high, and
you know, regardless, but we'll step back now and just
wait and see if prices do ease when we've got
a lot more volume come on board. And I think

(21:44):
that's a pretty sensible approach. You know, I think both
the North Island and South Island should start reasonably well.
But again, you know, a wet winter could put paid
to that.

Speaker 2 (21:56):
Where are the futures markets sitting at the moment for
twenty five twenty six?

Speaker 5 (22:00):
Yeah, so we opened today at nine to eighty, so
just down four cents on yesterday's close. I think there's
a chance of further weakness throughout the day. You know,
people would have been looking at that ten dollar midpoint,
or farmers would have been and saying, well, the ten
dollar price and saying, okay, well that's a reasonable sort
of level. Futures trading a little bit below that. But
then just seeing a GDT like we saw last night.
You know, I still see now that there's an opportunity

(22:23):
for things to fall further. You know, we might see
some activity today. I would think around that that low
nine eighties, you know, late nine seventy March.

Speaker 2 (22:33):
What's your gut feeling for the season ahead. I know
it's a silly question to ask in some ways, because
no one knows what's going to happen, least of all
Donald Trump. But what would you say, I mean, if
you were if you were a farmer, Do you think
you can bank on close to a ten dollar payout? Again?

Speaker 5 (22:49):
Well, you know, if I was a farmer, I'll be
locking my prices. I mean, that's what I'll be doing,
So I would be getting close to a ten dollar price.
You know, farmers are naturally optimistic given so much outside
of their control. But I'd be managing that risk. And
that's just the way I'd look at it. But do
I think this year will be another good season? Obviously
there's a lot of water to go under the bridge,

(23:10):
but on reasonably confidence unlike the last couple of years,
that we'll see good demand out of China. So, you know,
cast a memory back to twenty twenty one, and they
bought eight hundred thousand tons of homele powder, and you know,
we briefly thought that could be the new normal. Well
obviously that didn't turn out to be the case. But
the last couple of years they've only bought four hundred
thousand tons of home more powder, and so again I'm

(23:32):
not sure that's going to cut the mustard with them.
Given that local milks play over there has eased over
the past year. I think there was ten consecutive months
of decline so I expect China to come back and
as we know from you know from the past that
they've been a big supporter of New Zealand price, New
Zealand airy and obviously then that flows through into New
Zealand milk price.

Speaker 2 (23:53):
And what's the day like in Auckland? Is my plane
going to have trouble landing?

Speaker 5 (23:57):
You won't have any trouble landing, but you won't be
able to see too much on the scene. Toldn't think
it's pretty overcast and an actually drizzling a bit now
as well.

Speaker 2 (24:04):
Okay, Mike McIntyre, head of Commodities for Jardin, thank you
as always for your time. We've got to go to
a break on Global Running Day. Michelle's going to update
the latest and rural news. The FEDS Federated Farmers have
put their Save our Sheep billboards up in Wellington now,
so we're going to have a look at that one.
We'll have a look at sports news for you. Ben

(24:24):
Pickton out of Rabobanks Sydney office and Phil Duncan on
the weather. Before the end of the hour, Welcome back
to the country. Very shortly the latest and rural news
and sports news. But first another dairy season's wrapped up

(24:47):
and Open Country is celebrating with their farmer supplies at
National field Days same spot, Site F seventy three, the
much loved snack bar is back, serving hot and cold
treats made with Open Country cheese all day long. Plus
New Zealand's Champion of Cheese Master Judge Chason Tarrant returns
with an exciting twist on wine and cheese pairings. There's

(25:08):
two daily tastings. Late morning pears cheese with beer and wine,
and if that's not good enough, the afternoon session gets
more adventurous with gin and whiskey pairings. What really sets
this stand apart, though, listen to what the suppliers say.
The cheese gets you in the door, but it's the people.
There's good banter, The team's down to earth. It's just
a nice place to sit down and catch up another.

(25:29):
Ads and milk supply managers are like old friends. You
feel part of the team, not just a number. The
whole Open Country team is there to connect dairy farmers
make Site F seventy three and must stop at field Days.

Speaker 1 (25:46):
The Country's world us with cub Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co
dot z for your locals doggist.

Speaker 2 (25:55):
And here's Michelle Watt, the belk Luther Bogan. I bet
you iron Maid run to the Hill's got a fair
workout on the rosy. Back in the day, Michelle, I.

Speaker 7 (26:04):
Was definitely on the playlist. I believe I probably cruise
around in a four falcon at some point blasting this
out the windows in my young days.

Speaker 2 (26:10):
Oh that's over sharing, but good on you. All right,
what do you got on rural news? I've played the
line I haven't I you so have away you go.
You've got the old Feds. Your mates at the FEDS
have got a billboard up in Wellington.

Speaker 7 (26:20):
They have they've got a digital billboard. If you're up
in Wellington, it's on Whitmore Street, which is just around
the corner from Parliament. So all the politicians when they
leave Parliament are going to see this billboard every day.
And basically they're going hard on the save as Sheep
campaign and the message is clear to politicians, sheep are
not the problem. Stop planting productive farmland and pine trees
for carbon credits. And Toby Williams is saying they want

(26:43):
the campaign to be bold and directly in politicians' faces.
So hence the billboard right next to Parliament and that's
the only way they're going to get their attention. So
it's interesting. If you're up in Wellington, have a look.
I'll put a photo up of the billboard later on
on Facebook. And also if you felt an earthquake to small,
there definitely was one down in Tiano. Apparently a moderate
five point one magnitude shake happened at six fifty five

(27:06):
am at a depth of twenty three kilometers.

Speaker 2 (27:09):
Well, there you go. That is Michelle Watt with Rural News.
You can find more of that on our website The
Country dot co dot NZ hair Sport.

Speaker 1 (27:18):
Sport with Avco Kiwi to the Bone since nineteen oh four.

Speaker 2 (27:23):
Garry Steed's almost seven year reign as Black Caps coach
will officially cease at the end of the month. The
fifty three year old's decision to stand down from the
white ball role effectively rule amount of contention for continuing
after New Zealand Cricket opted for one mentor across all formats.
Stead led the team to a World Test Championship, a

(27:44):
three nil series victory in India, and fifty over and
twenty over World Cup finals. I think history will judge
his tenure very kindly. And a warning from the New
Zealand Rugby Players Association boss as a breakaway global competition
and gathers momentum. R three sixty, backed by former England

(28:05):
International and Royal These Days Mike Tindall, is set to
launch next year. Rob Nichol says the threat should force
rugby's stakeholders to address a bloated European schedule. That's sports
news for you. We've run out of iron Maiden up
next that's been picked in on the country. Everyone at

(28:28):
Rabobank has a fancy title and this man is no exception.
His name is Ben Pickton. He's a senior macro strategist.
That sort of means he's the chief economist. Ben. Since
we've last chatted, we've had a budget, we've had a
twenty five zero point two five percent cut in the
OCR and we've had a disappointing GDT auction overnight. The

(28:49):
world is starting to call its heels economy wise.

Speaker 4 (28:53):
Yeah, good Jamie, it's good to chat again.

Speaker 3 (28:56):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (28:57):
I think that's it's fair to say that that is
probably the case where starting to see some growth downgrades
flowing through from the likes of the OECD. That's probably
no surprise given all of the uncertainties around the impacts
of tasks and the expected flow through to the supply
side of the economy from that. So we are seeing

(29:17):
growth downgrades, and when you have weaker growth around the world,
it probably means that there's going to be slightly less
bid for commodities, and maybe we're seeing that reflected in
the GDT overnight.

Speaker 2 (29:30):
Well, let's have a look at that OECD report. They've
slashed the annual growth report for the world economy and
they're blaming Trump's tariffs there, especially in the US. Growth
in the US this year was predicted to be two
point two percent now one point six percent. There's just
less money in the world's biggest economy, China, interestingly, is

(29:52):
predicted to go down from four point eight percent to
four point seven percent comparatively. That's a good result, but
we've got to remember China's off coming down from a
very high bar.

Speaker 4 (30:04):
Yeah, that's right. It's interesting some of those growth projections
around the United States because the data flow out of
the US recently has actually been reasonably strong for most
of the data. We do have a pretty important number
that's coming out at the end of the week, which
is the US non farm Payrolls report. That's effectively the
jobs report for the USA, and it will maybe give

(30:26):
economists around the world a little bit more of an
insight into whether this recession that lots of people have
been expecting in the USA is really on the way
or not. But yes, overall, if you've got slower growth
in the USA and slower growth in China, they're the
two largest economies in the world, there's going to be
less economic activity overall, and that presents some headwinds for

(30:50):
our export performance in this part of the world.

Speaker 2 (30:53):
The good newsers interest rates are dropping. The banks here
are starting off a bit of a mortgage war. How
low can these rates go? Ocr dropped to three point
twenty five percent. We know there's another cut or twenty
five basis point cut factored, and could it go lower
than that if the world economy slows too much?

Speaker 4 (31:12):
Yeah, so it certainly could. Anything's possible. Our baseline forecast
is that we think that three percent is the bottom,
So we've got one more cut penciled in. We previously
had that in our forecast for July, but we've pushed
that back to August now because the signal from the
rbn Z last week certainly seemed to be that they

(31:35):
think that they're pretty close to the end of the
cutting cycle. We had a bit of an extraordinary circumstance
where usually the decisions on the ocr are taken by
unanimous consent, but this time around they actually voted, so
there was a five to one split in favor of
a twenty five basis point cut, So one member of

(31:57):
the Monetary Policy Committee couldn't be convinced by all of
the others that cutting rates was the right thing to
do in May, so that's an interesting signal in itself.
So we think three percent, given what we know today,
is probably the bottom. But there's a massive amount of
uncertainty out there surrounding what the impact of tariff's will be,

(32:17):
what that will do to New Zealand's export performance, and
if the situation ends up being worse than what we
currently expect, there's certainly scope for more cups.

Speaker 2 (32:29):
You won't have seen the latest Federated Farmers Banking survey,
but it's been good news for Rabobank. You've come out
kind of on top and certainly when it comes to
overdraft rates, you're doing a hell of a lot better
than some other banks what shall remain unnamed.

Speaker 4 (32:43):
Well, that's great news. I haven't seen those results, but
I'll put it out there and say I'm never surprised
when Rabobank does well and these sorts of things.

Speaker 2 (32:53):
You would say that, Ben, you are coming over to
New Zealand next week for Field Days and you're going
to be one of the keynote speakers along with Fine's
Minister Nikola Willis at the Rabobank client breakfast on Thursday morning.
Looking forward to listening to what you have to say.

Speaker 4 (33:08):
Yeah, I am coming over, so I'll be there in
the tent on Thursday morning, really looking forward to it.
I was at Sealed Days last year and it was
a fantastic event, so it'll be good to be there
again this year and on the panel with the Minister.

Speaker 2 (33:23):
That's breakfast sorted for me on Thursday morning. After a
big night out on Wednesday, no doubt on the tron
he been picked and I'll see you then to Jamie.
Thanks Ben. Now a big night out, I don't mean
boozing in Hamilton. That ship has sailed Michelle. Nothing good
happens after midnight unless you're Smiley Barrett. No. I think

(33:47):
there's a big Rural Support Trust debate that we're all
heading along to on Wednesday night. It's sold out, five
hundred and fifty people are just talking about Rabobank. It's
up and running. It's the twenty twenty five Rabobank Good
Deeds Competition, giving rural community groups across New Zealand a
chance to win a day's labor plus five thousand dollars

(34:10):
in funding for their nominated rural community project. So your
rural community groups are encouraged to submit their projects for
consideration via the Rabobank website. Rabobank dot co dot ends
in on paying Michelle back for chucking Michael Jackson in yesterday.
I didn't mind Michael when he was young, aren't you

(34:33):
shaking your head? He was better. He was black in
those days. I can't say that, can I? But he
was a nice little boy. What went wrong up next
to good bloke Phil Duncan. I'm just going I'm going
to get in trouble. Roddy Opra take a break and
regroup now a wrapping the country On a Wednesday, we

(35:03):
normally chat to this bloke on a Monday, but it
was Charlie's birthday, so we've got them today. Phil Duncan,
Is there a bit of weather happening in Auckland. I
know there's a bit of weather happening all around the country,
but it is June, it is winter. What do we expect?

Speaker 6 (35:17):
Good afternoon. Yeah, We've got some decent rain moving down
across the country. It's coming in from a big low
in the Tasman Sea and a large high out over
the Eat departing away from us. So we've got a
northerly windflow today, so the rainfall is going to be
a little bit subtropical, which means it can be patchy
and drizzly one moment and then absolutely pouring down the next.
And this is affecting the top half of the North

(35:40):
Island and the northwest corner of the South Island, and
there may be other areas like Canterbury as well, all
caught up in it. Because as that normally moves away
over tomorrow, in comes the giant wintry southerly and the
whole country will feel it. By Saturday, the whole of
New Zealand is going to have a temperature drop some
bay ten degrees or more, even the top of the

(36:01):
country several degrees down.

Speaker 2 (36:04):
Are you game enough to go out seven days to
day one of field Day's fill? Do you do that?
At weather watch?

Speaker 6 (36:09):
I love to do that. So next week there is
another big low, our third one in a row, coming
out of the Tasman Sea. So we're in a new
pattern now where it goes high pressure low pressure, high
pressure low pressure, and so next week there's another low.
The latest map today suggests that Wednesday might be a
bit wet, and then Thursday breaks to showers and Friday

(36:29):
Saturday has showers evening normally winds double digit overnight lows,
so it's not one of those frosty, foggy field days.
It looks like it might be a warmer, wetter version.
But we'll be able to fine tune that a bit
more by Friday of this week to see just how
much that low is going to affect the North Island.

Speaker 2 (36:46):
And bringing the gun boots for the car parks maybe,
But that's good news for people who are flying directly
into Hamilton because it's always it's always a bit dicey
at that time of the year. Phil They love fog
and Hamilton in June, we built on.

Speaker 6 (36:59):
The Rural Weather Indeed website. We've got a fog forecaster
and I built that just for field days because of
the fog at the airport there. How have you ever
done the helicopter in? That's something I would love to do,
is the helicopter in the n avoid that car park.

Speaker 2 (37:12):
Yeah, I know I haven't. I've done the jet boat
in which was good, but Cole, but really good. You're
really good. Hey are you are you going to field
days yourself? Weather watch?

Speaker 6 (37:19):
I don't. I don't think I am this year and
a little disappointed because I was quite keen to. But
I've got a lot going on and I'm still recovering
a bit from my injury. But if I can make it,
I would love to come down at the end of
each week. I'll see how I go.

Speaker 2 (37:31):
All right, Phil duncan thank you very much for your time.
We'll catch you back again on Monday's show and you
can report about the onset of winter Sharkara.

Speaker 6 (37:40):
Forward to it.

Speaker 2 (37:41):
Yeah, the TV channels will be running Sharkarra news stories. Yes,
guess what it's snowing. It is winter, that is Phil
Duncan weather guy here on the Country's show. Coming to
here for the next couple of days out of Auckland.
More about that tomorrow, Michelle. Don't burn the place down
in my absence, and remember, if you want the five

(38:02):
thousand dollars worth of cash and the day's labor from rabobank,
go to the website rabobank, dot co, dot and z
and submit your rural community project.

Speaker 1 (38:11):
See you tomorrow, catch you all the latest from the land.
It's The Country Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent,
You're specialist in John Deere construction equipment.