June 4, 2025 • 6 mins
BusinessDesk rural journalist on the state of the dairy industry and his recent trip to China with Fonterra (with Henry Acland and Hunter McGregor).
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
From the Auckland Studios where this man is domicil. Riley Kennedy,
my go to guy from business Desk, does all the
good rural and primary sector stories. Do you have to
hot desk, Riley?
Speaker 2 (00:12):
No, No, my desk is my desk and never an
ouskimbugger off.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Yeah. I think that's fair enough. I'm a bit like you.
Now you were recently in Is this a kind of
a nose in the trough sort of thing? Because I
saw you were in Shanghai with Fonterra, and I know
they do a lot of business over there, but I
did see a picture on social media from my Shanghai
based correspond at Hunter McGregor. There's you, Henry Ackland, the
(00:36):
PR guy for Fonterra, who does a great job and
Hunter no other word for it, grogging up in Shanghai.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
What happens on tour stays on tour. I would say
that Henry is my trusted translator. He speaks the language
I don't.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
Well, because Hunters are very fluent as well. Yeah. No,
it's a fascinating city, Shanghai, very western iceed compared to
the likes of Beijing, but huge obviously huge business for Fonterra.
It's the biggest single customer country wise. It is.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
It's a great city. It's very easy to get around
from boyfriend Meshburd and I can catch a train round
very easily. It's huge. You don't actually fully understand the
scale of China until you get off the plane and
walk down the main street of Shanghai and you see
the average Chinese consumers consuming our dairy products.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Let's have a look at the story you did on
Business Desk this morning, and I encourage everyone out there,
especially farmers, to subscribe to this if they haven't already,
because you're doing two or three really good rural or
primary sector stories daily there. Today's one is about dairy
prices to hold firm but geopolitical environment casting a shadow,
(01:49):
and it was really interesting. And I did say this
to Myles Hurrell and he sort of brushed me off, awe,
But I said, it's really odd that your price range
is from eight dollars to a level dollars. The natural
midpoint should have been nine dollars fifty, but they've gone
to ten yet they're signaling that it may go back down.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Yeah, it caught me out, not that I've been around
that long, but I've never seen them do that. I
just automatically thought it was a midpoint into US start
of getting emails saying ten dollars is not the midpoint,
But I think that sort of signals the downside risk.
And I mean you only need to have a look
at the front page of the Wall Street Journal to
see how the geopolitical environments like what Trump does well.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
OECD came out and we were talking about this one
on yesterday show with those grit with being picked and
from Rabobank, those growth figures for the US economy are
looking pretty sad for this year, all off the back
of Trump's tariffs. Do you think the penny's going.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
To drop for them? I'd love to know what goes
through Trump's head. Spent a lot of time thinking about that,
But every day I wake up and I wonder what
Trump said overnight.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Okay, Fonterra this is for the coming season is sitting
at ten dollars as their forecast at the moment I
see me. Raka has also come out there at nine
eighty five. Has Sinley. No, Sinlay hasn't come out with
anything as yet.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Have Sinley. We're still waiting for them.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Okay, Sin rattle your dad's open country. I'm not quite
sure where they're sitting as well. I'll ask Mark Delatour
that next week at Field Days. But they're all Rabobank,
for instance. I know their Ma Higgins is always a
wee bit conservative there. But I think they had their
opening shot is nine fifty.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
I thought they were ten, but be wrong.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
I thought, I don't know, maybe they are ten.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
That I thought they were ten, but you've probably know more.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
Well, No, no, I don't. I get confused. There's so
many numbers out there. So what was your gut feeling
on the Chinese economy when you were over there? Because
Hunter continually talks down when he's chatting to me on
the show.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
I would say that the demise of the Chinese economy
has probably been overdone. I mean it's still growing at
five percent in the first quarter of this year. Luxem
would take five percent any day in New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Yeah, I think they were actually that they were forecast
at four point eight. They're now forecast at four point seven.
Compared that to the American economy at one point six,
And I think, what are we struggling in the twos?
Low TOOS two.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
I think, yeah, yeah, so.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
I think they would take that. But they're coming off
annual growth rates of seven or eight percent or more.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Yeah, then that's why everyone sort of is up in
arms about it. But people you walk down the main
street of Shanghai, people are still drinking drinks, They're still
going and buying stuff. They're just not doing it as
a fast great as what they were previously.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Mike McIntire is another guy we chatted to, or we
chatted to this week on the show. I think milk
futures for the season are currently at nine dollars eighty. Look,
I'm a conservative, always have been. Like fixing a milk
price like fixing interest rates nine dollars eighty, you'd lock in, wouldn't.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
You, surely? But I mean, I'm not a financial advisor,
so I'm not going to tell I'm not going to
go and tell farmers what to do. But you could
hang on. But everyone is relatively confident that this is
the dairy presses are going are going to stay firm
where they are. There's just the risk that Trump's going
to say something or something's going to happen in China
(05:26):
and everyone's going to have to cut.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Well, we have a world war or something like that.
Mind you. The Korean War was very good for the
wall industry. Perhaps we need some more another war to
encourage something for strong Wall. Do you do do you
ever do stories on strong Wall?
Speaker 2 (05:39):
By the way, yes, Kayangora was a big one.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yep, that was.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
But I haven't looked at what the wall price has done.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
Well, well, it's not that flash basically compared to everything else.
Everything else is pretty good. The arable farmers won't agree
with me, but I look at the big ones. Dairy,
red meat, and horticulture especially Kiwi fruit and apples are
pretty good. Hey Riley Kennedy, great to catch up. We
will see you tomorrow. I'm coming back again tomorrow. Thanks
field Days and at field Days. Looking forward to field Days.
(06:07):
We'll be there Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of next week.
From the Auckland Studios where this man is domicil. Riley Kennedy,
my go to guy from business Desk, does all the
good rural and primary sector stories. Do you have to
hot desk, Riley?
Speaker 2 (00:12):
No, No, my desk is my desk and never an
ouskimbugger off.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Yeah. I think that's fair enough. I'm a bit like you.
Now you were recently in Is this a kind of
a nose in the trough sort of thing? Because I
saw you were in Shanghai with Fonterra, and I know
they do a lot of business over there, but I
did see a picture on social media from my Shanghai
based correspond at Hunter McGregor. There's you, Henry Ackland, the
(00:36):
PR guy for Fonterra, who does a great job and
Hunter no other word for it, grogging up in Shanghai.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
What happens on tour stays on tour. I would say
that Henry is my trusted translator. He speaks the language
I don't.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
Well, because Hunters are very fluent as well. Yeah. No,
it's a fascinating city, Shanghai, very western iceed compared to
the likes of Beijing, but huge obviously huge business for Fonterra.
It's the biggest single customer country wise. It is.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
It's a great city. It's very easy to get around
from boyfriend Meshburd and I can catch a train round
very easily. It's huge. You don't actually fully understand the
scale of China until you get off the plane and
walk down the main street of Shanghai and you see
the average Chinese consumers consuming our dairy products.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Let's have a look at the story you did on
Business Desk this morning, and I encourage everyone out there,
especially farmers, to subscribe to this if they haven't already,
because you're doing two or three really good rural or
primary sector stories daily there. Today's one is about dairy
prices to hold firm but geopolitical environment casting a shadow,
(01:49):
and it was really interesting. And I did say this
to Myles Hurrell and he sort of brushed me off, awe,
But I said, it's really odd that your price range
is from eight dollars to a level dollars. The natural
midpoint should have been nine dollars fifty, but they've gone
to ten yet they're signaling that it may go back down.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Yeah, it caught me out, not that I've been around
that long, but I've never seen them do that. I
just automatically thought it was a midpoint into US start
of getting emails saying ten dollars is not the midpoint,
But I think that sort of signals the downside risk.
And I mean you only need to have a look
at the front page of the Wall Street Journal to
see how the geopolitical environments like what Trump does well.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
OECD came out and we were talking about this one
on yesterday show with those grit with being picked and
from Rabobank, those growth figures for the US economy are
looking pretty sad for this year, all off the back
of Trump's tariffs. Do you think the penny's going.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
To drop for them? I'd love to know what goes
through Trump's head. Spent a lot of time thinking about that,
But every day I wake up and I wonder what
Trump said overnight.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Okay, Fonterra this is for the coming season is sitting
at ten dollars as their forecast at the moment I
see me. Raka has also come out there at nine
eighty five. Has Sinley. No, Sinlay hasn't come out with
anything as yet.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Have Sinley. We're still waiting for them.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Okay, Sin rattle your dad's open country. I'm not quite
sure where they're sitting as well. I'll ask Mark Delatour
that next week at Field Days. But they're all Rabobank,
for instance. I know their Ma Higgins is always a
wee bit conservative there. But I think they had their
opening shot is nine fifty.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
I thought they were ten, but be wrong.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
I thought, I don't know, maybe they are ten.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
That I thought they were ten, but you've probably know more.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
Well, No, no, I don't. I get confused. There's so
many numbers out there. So what was your gut feeling
on the Chinese economy when you were over there? Because
Hunter continually talks down when he's chatting to me on
the show.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
I would say that the demise of the Chinese economy
has probably been overdone. I mean it's still growing at
five percent in the first quarter of this year. Luxem
would take five percent any day in New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Yeah, I think they were actually that they were forecast
at four point eight. They're now forecast at four point seven.
Compared that to the American economy at one point six,
And I think, what are we struggling in the twos?
Low TOOS two.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
I think, yeah, yeah, so.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
I think they would take that. But they're coming off
annual growth rates of seven or eight percent or more.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Yeah, then that's why everyone sort of is up in
arms about it. But people you walk down the main
street of Shanghai, people are still drinking drinks, They're still
going and buying stuff. They're just not doing it as
a fast great as what they were previously.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Mike McIntire is another guy we chatted to, or we
chatted to this week on the show. I think milk
futures for the season are currently at nine dollars eighty. Look,
I'm a conservative, always have been. Like fixing a milk
price like fixing interest rates nine dollars eighty, you'd lock in, wouldn't.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
You, surely? But I mean, I'm not a financial advisor,
so I'm not going to tell I'm not going to
go and tell farmers what to do. But you could
hang on. But everyone is relatively confident that this is
the dairy presses are going are going to stay firm
where they are. There's just the risk that Trump's going
to say something or something's going to happen in China
(05:26):
and everyone's going to have to cut.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Well, we have a world war or something like that.
Mind you. The Korean War was very good for the
wall industry. Perhaps we need some more another war to
encourage something for strong Wall. Do you do do you
ever do stories on strong Wall?
Speaker 2 (05:39):
By the way, yes, Kayangora was a big one.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yep, that was.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
But I haven't looked at what the wall price has done.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
Well, well, it's not that flash basically compared to everything else.
Everything else is pretty good. The arable farmers won't agree
with me, but I look at the big ones. Dairy,
red meat, and horticulture especially Kiwi fruit and apples are
pretty good. Hey Riley Kennedy, great to catch up. We
will see you tomorrow. I'm coming back again tomorrow. Thanks
field Days and at field Days. Looking forward to field Days.
(06:07):
We'll be there Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of next week.
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