June 5, 2025 • 5 mins
Niwa's weather guy on winter’s arrival and the long-range winter forecast. Will it be warmer and wetter? Plus, we go shorter term with a Fieldays forecast for next week.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Next up is Chris Brandeleno, who is not really filling
in for Winston because we can't find Winston Peters. But
Chris Brandeleeno, we said about twelve thirty, So you can
be Winston if you want, or you could just be
a humble weather man. What do you want to be?
Speaker 2 (00:14):
I'll be a humble meteorologist. Winston is the best person
to be Winston. I can promise you that. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
I think they broke the mold when they made Winston. Anyhow,
we'll try and track them down before the end of
the hour. Me will weather guy. Winter's well and truly
arrived as we expect. Shock horror, It's June. It gets cold,
no surprise there. But I was reading I think late
last week or early or early because I wasn't on
the show last Friday when we chatted, or early this
(00:41):
week about your long range winter forecaster. Are you guys
saying like warmer and wetter?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Well, yeah, well, yes, it is the short answer. The
longer answer is a little bit of variability, So warm everywhere,
and look, I can imagine people in the South Island
and from that part for that matter, rather a good
chunk of the North allum being like, are you sure
about that? Warmer than average? It's pretty cold right now,
And yes, I am sure about that. And now that
is because this is a three month outlook, Jamie, not
(01:09):
a three day outlook. A three month outlook will certainly
we'll have peaks and valleys, but we're expecting more peaks
and valleys. To use a temperature metaphor, there will be
cold snaps, i e. Today and tomorrow and the next
few days for that matter. In fact, Jamie, I would
not be surprised if you and I are talking in
its early September and winter is in the rearview mirror,
(01:30):
and we would have like, oh wow, the harshest part
of winter, you know broadly and you know from a
broad and sharp point of view, was actually in early June,
this colt st that may not have much staying power.
So I think it may be kind of an odd
ball in terms of what the rest of winter will be. Yes,
it'll be cold. Snaps are probably gonna be infrequent, and
we are expecting airflows not to come from the south
(01:52):
very often, Jamie, which is why we're expecting air temperatures
to be elevated. Terms of rainfall. If there's gonna be
a wet winter. It's likely to be the of the country,
so Bay Plenty, Core Mendel, Whyecotto Auckland, Northland. We still
think of wetter than usual winter as possible for all
other parts of the country bar the eastern part of
the South Island and that. But it's a bit more uncertain, Jamie.
(02:13):
So we're saying normal or above normal kind of in
between that spectrum. We're within that spectrum, I should.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Say, Monngey, if you're going to get bad with it,
you want it in the winter months. What we don't
want and I'm speaking on behalf of southern South Island
farmers as a repeat of last spring. So we got
through the winter pretty well and then it was a
horror spring.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
It was I think a lot of that was, dude.
We had. Look, we had this thing called a sudden
stratospheric warming event, and that is when the top of
the atmosphere gets really warm, really fast relative to what
it usually is over the South Pole. And when that happens,
that causes disruptions in the atmosphere and we actually saw
more westerly type winds because of that, and that was
a big reason why the lower part of the South Island,
(02:56):
particularly Southland, was unusually wet. We will get episode of
westerly winds. I'm not saying we won't. They're basically going
to be infrequent. They're going to be less than usual,
and that'll be offset by winds coming from the northeast
to the northwest. And when that happens, Jamie, not only
will our temperatures be warmer. This spike in temperatures. Look, man,
we just saw this a couple of days ago. Yesterday,
(03:17):
the day before in the upper North Island it was
twenty degrees lower twenties in Hawk's Bay and that was
because of our airflow. But not only will that warmth
come with that northeast to northwest, when so will these
rain bearing weather systems. And we have any weather systems
coming from the north via northeast to northwest, that increases
our odds for big rain events. So we'll have to
keep our eye on that. And the area is most
(03:39):
exposed to that. What do you expect the top of
the country, which is why we've gone above normal rainfall
for that part of the North Island because they're more
exposed to those rain events. We do, I should say
real quick, we have to watch for dryness actually in
the western and lower part of the South Island and
to a lesser extent, to a lesser extent the western
and lower part of the North Island to so much
(04:01):
for the winter season, but it's probably toward the tail
end of winter until from about August into the spring season. Especially.
That is one area we'll have to watch for drynis
because we could see more northeast to easterly type winds
and that would not promote wetness or even near normal
wetness for that part of the country. We'll see. But
just a bit of a heads up, kind of longer,
longer term.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Okay, let's go really short term. What do we got
for field days next week?
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Oh gosh, that's right, field days coming up. Look, it's
gonna be warmer, they'll be. It'll be a field days
is underway Thursday. If my memories Wednesday correct, Wednesday, well, Wednesday,
expect a frosty start. Okay, So Wednesday will be a
cold start. It'll be a cold start to field days,
no doubt about it. But as we work through the
field field days period, it will warm up gradually and
(04:47):
by Friday and by Saturday it looks like we're talking
much warmer temperature, so it chilly start Wednesday morning. But
I do think we will find a trend or a change,
I should say, to warmer temperatures, and those warmer temperatures
could be accompanied by a threat for showers as we
get into say Thursday, and especially Friday, so I won't
(05:09):
call it a wash out, but it looks like as
we get toward Thursday, Friday and Saturday a field days,
there may be times where you want to head indoors,
but we can fine tune that forecast as we get closer.
Cold start, warmer, finish.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Okay, will we see you there?
Speaker 2 (05:23):
I will not be there, Oh.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
Damn, never mind. I will still check to you hopefully
next Friday. Chris Brendelina, thank you so much for your time.
Bring your gun boots to field Days for the car
park anyway,
Next up is Chris Brandeleno, who is not really filling
in for Winston because we can't find Winston Peters. But
Chris Brandeleeno, we said about twelve thirty, So you can
be Winston if you want, or you could just be
a humble weather man. What do you want to be?
Speaker 2 (00:14):
I'll be a humble meteorologist. Winston is the best person
to be Winston. I can promise you that. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
I think they broke the mold when they made Winston. Anyhow,
we'll try and track them down before the end of
the hour. Me will weather guy. Winter's well and truly
arrived as we expect. Shock horror, It's June. It gets cold,
no surprise there. But I was reading I think late
last week or early or early because I wasn't on
the show last Friday when we chatted, or early this
(00:41):
week about your long range winter forecaster. Are you guys
saying like warmer and wetter?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Well, yeah, well, yes, it is the short answer. The
longer answer is a little bit of variability, So warm everywhere,
and look, I can imagine people in the South Island
and from that part for that matter, rather a good
chunk of the North allum being like, are you sure
about that? Warmer than average? It's pretty cold right now,
And yes, I am sure about that. And now that
is because this is a three month outlook, Jamie, not
(01:09):
a three day outlook. A three month outlook will certainly
we'll have peaks and valleys, but we're expecting more peaks
and valleys. To use a temperature metaphor, there will be
cold snaps, i e. Today and tomorrow and the next
few days for that matter. In fact, Jamie, I would
not be surprised if you and I are talking in
its early September and winter is in the rearview mirror,
(01:30):
and we would have like, oh wow, the harshest part
of winter, you know broadly and you know from a
broad and sharp point of view, was actually in early June,
this colt st that may not have much staying power.
So I think it may be kind of an odd
ball in terms of what the rest of winter will be. Yes,
it'll be cold. Snaps are probably gonna be infrequent, and
we are expecting airflows not to come from the south
(01:52):
very often, Jamie, which is why we're expecting air temperatures
to be elevated. Terms of rainfall. If there's gonna be
a wet winter. It's likely to be the of the country,
so Bay Plenty, Core Mendel, Whyecotto Auckland, Northland. We still
think of wetter than usual winter as possible for all
other parts of the country bar the eastern part of
the South Island and that. But it's a bit more uncertain, Jamie.
(02:13):
So we're saying normal or above normal kind of in
between that spectrum. We're within that spectrum, I should.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Say, Monngey, if you're going to get bad with it,
you want it in the winter months. What we don't
want and I'm speaking on behalf of southern South Island
farmers as a repeat of last spring. So we got
through the winter pretty well and then it was a
horror spring.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
It was I think a lot of that was, dude.
We had. Look, we had this thing called a sudden
stratospheric warming event, and that is when the top of
the atmosphere gets really warm, really fast relative to what
it usually is over the South Pole. And when that happens,
that causes disruptions in the atmosphere and we actually saw
more westerly type winds because of that, and that was
a big reason why the lower part of the South Island,
(02:56):
particularly Southland, was unusually wet. We will get episode of
westerly winds. I'm not saying we won't. They're basically going
to be infrequent. They're going to be less than usual,
and that'll be offset by winds coming from the northeast
to the northwest. And when that happens, Jamie, not only
will our temperatures be warmer. This spike in temperatures. Look, man,
we just saw this a couple of days ago. Yesterday,
(03:17):
the day before in the upper North Island it was
twenty degrees lower twenties in Hawk's Bay and that was
because of our airflow. But not only will that warmth
come with that northeast to northwest, when so will these
rain bearing weather systems. And we have any weather systems
coming from the north via northeast to northwest, that increases
our odds for big rain events. So we'll have to
keep our eye on that. And the area is most
(03:39):
exposed to that. What do you expect the top of
the country, which is why we've gone above normal rainfall
for that part of the North Island because they're more
exposed to those rain events. We do, I should say
real quick, we have to watch for dryness actually in
the western and lower part of the South Island and
to a lesser extent, to a lesser extent the western
and lower part of the North Island to so much
(04:01):
for the winter season, but it's probably toward the tail
end of winter until from about August into the spring season. Especially.
That is one area we'll have to watch for drynis
because we could see more northeast to easterly type winds
and that would not promote wetness or even near normal
wetness for that part of the country. We'll see. But
just a bit of a heads up, kind of longer,
longer term.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Okay, let's go really short term. What do we got
for field days next week?
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Oh gosh, that's right, field days coming up. Look, it's
gonna be warmer, they'll be. It'll be a field days
is underway Thursday. If my memories Wednesday correct, Wednesday, well, Wednesday,
expect a frosty start. Okay, So Wednesday will be a
cold start. It'll be a cold start to field days,
no doubt about it. But as we work through the
field field days period, it will warm up gradually and
(04:47):
by Friday and by Saturday it looks like we're talking
much warmer temperature, so it chilly start Wednesday morning. But
I do think we will find a trend or a change,
I should say, to warmer temperatures, and those warmer temperatures
could be accompanied by a threat for showers as we
get into say Thursday, and especially Friday, so I won't
(05:09):
call it a wash out, but it looks like as
we get toward Thursday, Friday and Saturday a field days,
there may be times where you want to head indoors,
but we can fine tune that forecast as we get closer.
Cold start, warmer, finish.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Okay, will we see you there?
Speaker 2 (05:23):
I will not be there, Oh.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
Damn, never mind. I will still check to you hopefully
next Friday. Chris Brendelina, thank you so much for your time.
Bring your gun boots to field Days for the car
park anyway,
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