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June 8, 2025 • 8 mins

Don't blame the pine trees! So says the former President of Beef + Lamb NZ, when it comes to the loss of more than two million sheep (45% of the total flock) in the past 32 years. He also looks at how water will transform the farming landscape in his home patch of Central Hawkes Bay. 

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well as promised and we always deliver here on the country.
We've found our man Mike Petterson, former chair of Beef
and Lamb New Zealand. Former Special New Zealand Trade agg Envoyd.
Did I get that around the right way? Mike? And
of course these days our share of Scales one of
our biggest horticulture companies. Interesting story in Hawk's Bay today
your local paper Mike, about the loss of sheep numbers

(00:23):
and Hawk's Bay you've gone from five million to three million?
Can we blame the pine trees?

Speaker 2 (00:29):
Well, Cado, Jamie and always good to catch up with
you again. Look look in part. You could look at
it in recent times and say that, certainly pine trees
are having an impact, there's no doubt about that. But
we've got to remember that this is a region where
the Gimblet gravels used to farm sheep because of the
subsidies that were being paid to farmers at the time,

(00:50):
back in the eighties. So there have been a range
of reasons why sheep numbers have declined in Hawk's Bay.
The growing wine industry, there's been many other articulture and
cropping opportunities, and of course there's been urbanization as well.
With people building lifestyle blocks because it's a great place
to live. So pine trees are not the sole reason

(01:12):
at all. And in fact, even though they're the most
recent visual thing that we can see, Lendu's change has
been happening for a long time.

Speaker 1 (01:20):
So you reckon or was it that business desk story
you sent to me quoting the forest station if you want,
of regions like Hawks Bay, no worse than it was
twenty years ago, Why does it seem much worse? It
seems much worse to me.

Speaker 2 (01:36):
Oh, look, we're seeing properties that would not normally have
been in pine trees being planted in pine trees, and
it's very visual and it's quite confronting for people. I
fully understand that, and certainly places out this way, like
Wallingford Station that was always seen as an iconic sheep
and beef farming property was planted in pine trees. That's

(01:57):
one example. But the issue for me still, Jamie, is
it actually, when you look at the numbers, and Business
Desks quotes them very well, there are no more hectores
planted than pine trees today than there were in the
two thousand and two. So in the last twenty to
twenty five years, the amount of land and forestry in

(02:18):
New Zealand has not changed, and so yes, it's particularly
graphic in some regions, but on a nationwide basis it
actually has. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (02:27):
But Mike, we're planting it in places we wouldn't have
planted it in two thousand and two, and we're talking
and this is the I think this is the criminal
part of it. The blanket planting of some of these farms.
Fair enough to do some of the back country, maybe
some of the south facing country, I don't know, but
when you've got good flat land that should be producing food,

(02:48):
growing pine trees, now I think it's a crime. And
the other thing is, and you'll probably disagree with me
on this one as well. Isn't there an element of
spray and walk away to this?

Speaker 2 (03:00):
Well, firstly, just to be clear, I don't supplant I
don't support planning productive farmland and pine trees. And in fact,
on our property here, you know, we planted twenty percent
of the farm, but it was all the natives, so
you know, I mean, you know, I'm pretty happy with
what we're doing here. There's no doubt about that. Look,
I think though there's a question mark about the spray
walk away, And I'm not here to defend the carbon foresters,

(03:23):
even though I'm involved in advising some of these firms.
But you know, we are a company, and the firms
I'm involved with that don't plant productive land and pine trees,
and so you know that to me is the right
approach and we should have a mosaic approach. I'm one
hundred percent on board with that, Jamie, and that would
be a preferred approach from my point of view.

Speaker 1 (03:44):
Do you think the government legislation which is due to
come into place a bit later this year will effectively
level out the playing field there?

Speaker 2 (03:53):
Well? The change is that the government made about the
amount of land that can be regis in the etis
took place from December last year, so it is going
to have an impact, There's no doubt about that, Jamie.
But one thing I think you won't stop is you
won't stop demand from some people wanting to change land
use and plant pine trees for whatever the reason. And

(04:14):
it may be that a combination of forestry and carbon
is the most profitable use of that land. And I
firmly in the camp where I don't want the government
telling me what I can and can't do with my
own land, and I don't think landowners should be stopped
from doing that. So once you start putting restrictions in place,
once you start looking to the government to decide where

(04:35):
and what to do with your farm land, then we're
on a really slippery slope.

Speaker 1 (04:38):
One more question on this before I move on to
horticulture and water in Hawks Bay. Do you think there's
a danger? Yes, forestry for production, excellent logs, export them.
But is there a danger in twenty or thirty years
time that these carbon credits won't even exist?

Speaker 2 (04:55):
Well, at some stays Jamie, the price of carbon's going
to be zero. That's what that's like. That's all likelihood
of that happening. I don't know if that'll be in
ten years or thirty years or fifty years. But carbon
credits are a transition to a lower mission's economy, and
we could all question about whether the pace of that

(05:16):
change has slowed down in recent times or not. But
I think the general trend is clear, and that we
will be trying to produce things more efficiently with technologies
and energy sources are going to be more carbon efficient.
So yes, the price of carbon will be zero one
day and so some people may hold assets that are
actually worth serah. But that's not my call to make

(05:37):
it this time.

Speaker 1 (05:38):
Probably won't be your problem in twenty or thirty years
time either, mic I shouldn't say that Toki TOOKI water
project and we saw Ruatana for fallover. Is this one
going to go in Hawks Bay and lower central hawk
Spay where your based, because this would transform the landscape.

Speaker 2 (05:55):
Well, I certainly would. I mean the region Hawks Bay
is a region unfortunately is running dry, and so we
need to face up to the reality that of all
the rivers that flow to the sea, there's about seven
point two BILLIONT cubes of water flows to the sea
out of the rivers of Hawks Bay each year, and
we kept a pretty much zero amount of that. We're

(06:16):
looking to hold up one point four percent in this
Twoky Tiki Water Security Project storage dan one point four
percent of that total water that runs through the sea
and let it go when people are short. We think
it makes perfect sense. Frankly, water storage is not the
silver bullet. It's not the only answer, Jamie, But I
tell you what, water storage has to be part of

(06:36):
the solution for this part of the world. If you
want to see more jobs, high value food production and
processing and extebit environmental accounts.

Speaker 1 (06:46):
Oh, it's a damn fine solution if you ask me,
no pun intended. Will that land all go to horticulture,
by the way.

Speaker 2 (06:53):
More than likely, Jamie, because when you look at the
opportunities for permanent horticulture, we've got lots and mccains in
this part of the world, so vegetable and fruit production
or high value seed production, which we're also trying to
do here in Hawks Bay. The reality is that no
one here can do that stuff now with any degree

(07:16):
of certainty because they can't get access to any water.
The catchments are fully allocated, and in fact in the
Heretongua you've actually got the amount of water that is
allocated been cut back by about thirty to forty percent
in some cases, which makes it impossible. Hey.

Speaker 1 (07:31):
A final word on Scales, as a very small scale investor,
myself and the company and mate of your chief executive
Andrew Borland, is he working hard enough on my bearth?

Speaker 2 (07:43):
Hi, he's working out standing the ard and well, Jamie.
So you can be rest assured that your reinvestment in
Scales has been well looked. After we've got annual Shareholders
meeting tomorrow in Kross Church and so it's a time
when generally people come along and enjoy a bit of
conversation and also we have plenty of our fine apples

(08:04):
and produce on display for people to take home and
enjoy as well.

Speaker 1 (08:07):
Good on you, Mike Peterson, thanks for your time. I'll
see you at Field Days.

Speaker 2 (08:11):
Thanks Jamie, look forward to it.
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