June 9, 2025 • 6 mins
Our guy in Shanghai is a Kiwi selling venison and red meat to the Chinese. Today, we talk about “summer plum rains”, green shoots in the economy, and Trump’s tariffs.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
He's our guy in Shanghai, Hunter McGregor are key. We
selling venison and red meat to the Chinese. Good rockspurh
lad born and bred. Of course a great summer fruit
area in Shanghai or in China. At the moment, Hunter,
the summer plum rains have just started. What's that all about.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Yeah, good afternoon, Jamie. You know that the summer plum
rains effect East China, which is the Shanghai area, so Shanghai,
Juju and Jungsu, the province net nearby. So, and what
happens at this time of the year. Usually on average
for around about twenty two days in June, we get
rain every day just before before the heat starts and summer.
(00:42):
So yeah, at the moment, you know, we've had some
heavy rain in the morning. We have a little bit
of drizzle in the afternoon, and it keeps the temperature
down which is quite nice. We sort of mid twenties
at the moment, and then late June when this finishes,
the heat really arrives. In July. All we're sort of
plus thirty plus forty degrees most days and hot humid.
(01:05):
So yeah, it's not too bad. But she's moistened. She's
good for growing condition, good for growing grass.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Is it good for growing green shoots? In the economy
because every time, every fortnight we chat and you're always
the grim reaper when it comes to the Chinese economy, Hunter.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Well, I don't know them the good and reaper. Pretty
I'm just realistic. What's happening. You know, it's yeah, to
be fair, the Chinese economy seems to be slowly tracking
in the right direction. Things are picking up. I think
the tariffs are putting a bit of pressure downward, pressure
on confidence, and you know, let's see how that plays
(01:43):
out in the in the coming months. I see that
at the moment in London, the Chinese and the Americans
just had a day of talks today. They've got more tomorrow,
which is which should only be positive. But you know,
outside of that, we've still got consumer conferdences not that high.
We've still got problems around the housing market. So you know,
(02:04):
there's plenty of challenges around, but there are some bright
spots and you know, things seem to be ticking along okay.
But you know, she's not a Roses up here, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
You've got a mate who runs a bar in Shanghai.
It sounds like an old line from a Humphrey Bogart movie,
doesn't it. But anecdotally, what's he telling you.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Well, it's tough. It's tough. He's finding it really tough.
He's had it for about fifteen years and he's really straggling. Well,
he's doing okay, but what he's finding he's telling me
that people aren't traveling lot they once used to do
in and around Shanghai, so everyone sort of keeps local.
And the challenge that he's got is he has to
run lots of specials and lots of events to get
(02:45):
people in the door, you know, so it's not easy.
He's doing okay, but yeah, he said he could do
a lot better. And he actually used to have two
or three locations. Now he's down to one and just
just focusing on that, so you know. And and then
I was talking to another bar owner who's doing extremely well,
So you know, it's it's challenging. It's difficult, but you know,
(03:08):
people you know, but he seen everyone I talked to
that owns bars are reasonably confidence. These guys have got
Western bars for the lines tour down in Australia is
going to help fill up the place in the weekends
and the next week were so that's quite they'll be
positive for them as well.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Is the bloker's doing well? Is that your local bar
where you take your mates from Fonterra and Riley Kennedy
from Business desk Riley would be good for turnover?
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Yeah, no, that they were pretty good for turnover. No, No,
that that's another place actually that you know, it's I
thought I've taken them to a place we can sit
outside and and enjoy the Shanghai weather. So no, it's
another place entirely. But there's still plenty of places for
those guys to visit.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Okay, one more number to have a look at to dissect.
China's X sports rose four point eight percent in May
from a year earlier. I'm assuming that's May year on here.
So it's not all bad despite Trump's tariffs.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
No, it's not all bad. But you know, you look
at the exports of the States went down by ten percent,
but you know the reverse to Southeast Asia they are
up by fourteen point eight percent, and then into Europe
they're up by twelve percent. So yeah, it's not all bad.
It's you know, things are changing, Things are going to
constantly change and let's see how things play out in
(04:25):
the next few days in London and what's socided there.
But that is it is putting a bit of pressure
on confidence and if they can get some sort of
clear path and they've actually have trumped and decide what
he wants to do and be consistent, you know, it'd
be a lot helpful for everybody. I suppose.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
Well, don't hold your breath on that one, Hunter McGregor,
just quickly to finish on university examinations happening now at
the end of high school. Around thirteen million students are
taking them, and unlike some students in New Zealand who
don't even bother to turn up to school, I take
it the Chinese are pretty serious about deemic qualifications if
they want to get anywhere in a nation full of
(05:04):
one point four billion people.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Oh yeah, no, it's incredible. It's called the gal Khal
It's really massive. There's a lot of pressure and they're
doing it right now. It's the last day and there's
a big priest presence around school to help people getting
there's no one delayed what they're doing. All the AI
systems here are actually turning off their checking of exams
(05:26):
and things functions, so there's no cheating and things like that,
and it's massive, it's very serious, and you know, it's
a lot of competition. And you know in China, unlike
prop New Zealand, they have pass and fail, you know,
so there's a lot of pressure.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Exactly. That's what life is like when you get out
of school slash university. You either pass or you fail.
I don't know why we don't have such a clear
line in school, but that's coming from a grumpy old
boomer who sat school sirt and didn't have to sit
ue those were the days, and did nothing in the
seventh form. I'm prattling off. Hey Hunt McGregor, thank you
very much for your time.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
Cheer Thanks Jeremy
He's our guy in Shanghai, Hunter McGregor are key. We
selling venison and red meat to the Chinese. Good rockspurh
lad born and bred. Of course a great summer fruit
area in Shanghai or in China. At the moment, Hunter,
the summer plum rains have just started. What's that all about.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Yeah, good afternoon, Jamie. You know that the summer plum
rains effect East China, which is the Shanghai area, so Shanghai,
Juju and Jungsu, the province net nearby. So, and what
happens at this time of the year. Usually on average
for around about twenty two days in June, we get
rain every day just before before the heat starts and summer.
(00:42):
So yeah, at the moment, you know, we've had some
heavy rain in the morning. We have a little bit
of drizzle in the afternoon, and it keeps the temperature
down which is quite nice. We sort of mid twenties
at the moment, and then late June when this finishes,
the heat really arrives. In July. All we're sort of
plus thirty plus forty degrees most days and hot humid.
(01:05):
So yeah, it's not too bad. But she's moistened. She's
good for growing condition, good for growing grass.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Is it good for growing green shoots? In the economy
because every time, every fortnight we chat and you're always
the grim reaper when it comes to the Chinese economy, Hunter.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Well, I don't know them the good and reaper. Pretty
I'm just realistic. What's happening. You know, it's yeah, to
be fair, the Chinese economy seems to be slowly tracking
in the right direction. Things are picking up. I think
the tariffs are putting a bit of pressure downward, pressure
on confidence, and you know, let's see how that plays
(01:43):
out in the in the coming months. I see that
at the moment in London, the Chinese and the Americans
just had a day of talks today. They've got more tomorrow,
which is which should only be positive. But you know,
outside of that, we've still got consumer conferdences not that high.
We've still got problems around the housing market. So you know,
(02:04):
there's plenty of challenges around, but there are some bright
spots and you know, things seem to be ticking along okay.
But you know, she's not a Roses up here, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
You've got a mate who runs a bar in Shanghai.
It sounds like an old line from a Humphrey Bogart movie,
doesn't it. But anecdotally, what's he telling you.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Well, it's tough. It's tough. He's finding it really tough.
He's had it for about fifteen years and he's really straggling. Well,
he's doing okay, but what he's finding he's telling me
that people aren't traveling lot they once used to do
in and around Shanghai, so everyone sort of keeps local.
And the challenge that he's got is he has to
run lots of specials and lots of events to get
(02:45):
people in the door, you know, so it's not easy.
He's doing okay, but yeah, he said he could do
a lot better. And he actually used to have two
or three locations. Now he's down to one and just
just focusing on that, so you know. And and then
I was talking to another bar owner who's doing extremely well,
So you know, it's it's challenging. It's difficult, but you know,
(03:08):
people you know, but he seen everyone I talked to
that owns bars are reasonably confidence. These guys have got
Western bars for the lines tour down in Australia is
going to help fill up the place in the weekends
and the next week were so that's quite they'll be
positive for them as well.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Is the bloker's doing well? Is that your local bar
where you take your mates from Fonterra and Riley Kennedy
from Business desk Riley would be good for turnover?
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Yeah, no, that they were pretty good for turnover. No, No,
that that's another place actually that you know, it's I
thought I've taken them to a place we can sit
outside and and enjoy the Shanghai weather. So no, it's
another place entirely. But there's still plenty of places for
those guys to visit.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Okay, one more number to have a look at to dissect.
China's X sports rose four point eight percent in May
from a year earlier. I'm assuming that's May year on here.
So it's not all bad despite Trump's tariffs.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
No, it's not all bad. But you know, you look
at the exports of the States went down by ten percent,
but you know the reverse to Southeast Asia they are
up by fourteen point eight percent, and then into Europe
they're up by twelve percent. So yeah, it's not all bad.
It's you know, things are changing, Things are going to
constantly change and let's see how things play out in
(04:25):
the next few days in London and what's socided there.
But that is it is putting a bit of pressure
on confidence and if they can get some sort of
clear path and they've actually have trumped and decide what
he wants to do and be consistent, you know, it'd
be a lot helpful for everybody. I suppose.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
Well, don't hold your breath on that one, Hunter McGregor,
just quickly to finish on university examinations happening now at
the end of high school. Around thirteen million students are
taking them, and unlike some students in New Zealand who
don't even bother to turn up to school, I take
it the Chinese are pretty serious about deemic qualifications if
they want to get anywhere in a nation full of
(05:04):
one point four billion people.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Oh yeah, no, it's incredible. It's called the gal Khal
It's really massive. There's a lot of pressure and they're
doing it right now. It's the last day and there's
a big priest presence around school to help people getting
there's no one delayed what they're doing. All the AI
systems here are actually turning off their checking of exams
(05:26):
and things functions, so there's no cheating and things like that,
and it's massive, it's very serious, and you know, it's
a lot of competition. And you know in China, unlike
prop New Zealand, they have pass and fail, you know,
so there's a lot of pressure.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Exactly. That's what life is like when you get out
of school slash university. You either pass or you fail.
I don't know why we don't have such a clear
line in school, but that's coming from a grumpy old
boomer who sat school sirt and didn't have to sit
ue those were the days, and did nothing in the
seventh form. I'm prattling off. Hey Hunt McGregor, thank you
very much for your time.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
Cheer Thanks Jeremy
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