June 11, 2025 • 5 mins
MPI's director general on a "blockbuster" Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (Sopi) report.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
That is Dennis Brian Wilson. Should I say from the
beach boys, God only knows. Of course, he passed away
at the ripe old age of eighty two. And I
guess that's a nice segue into our first guest on
the country today. He is the director General of MPI.
His name is Ray Smith, and Ray, I'm going to
say to you, God only knows what we would do
without the primary sector. Do you like what I did there?
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Well, actually, Jamie has some pretty good vibrations in the
primary sector. Actually, right at the moment, what an absolute
blockbuster announcement. We've got nearly sixty billion dollars in export innings,
three billion dollars more than we could have forecast, a
twelve percent growth rate, and almost across all categories of
the primary sector. So look, I think a lot of growers, producers, farmers,
(00:46):
big processing companies, people working in market. I think if
you're really proud to be a key today knowing that
the world wants our products.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Hey, when I was a kid growing up, there was
a program on TV we're doing nostalgia here called the
six million dollar Man. I really wanted to call you
the sixty billion dollar Man, but you just came up short. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Look, we really pushed our economists there to try and
find that last little bit. So look, you know, if
we could have just got a little bit more out
of the wine industry, we would have been okay. Mean,
they've had a bit of a tough year, to be
fair to them. But look everyone, look, once we get
to the final focuse, you never know, we might just
get across that sixty billion dollar line.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Well, god on, youre so fifty nine point nine billion
for the year end of June thirty, twenty twenty five.
Here's an interesting number, sixty five point seven billion by
twenty twenty nine. That is four years away. Now, the
government has ordered you ray as a government servant, a
servant to double export primary sector exports in a decade.
(01:44):
You're gonna have to do a bit better than that.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Yeah, well, look, I think we've got to try and
raise it up to one hundred and six billion by
twenty thirty four. So we're looking about another twenty five
percent lift and performance across that period of time. But
if you if you think about it, another two billion
people are going to join the world between now and
twenty fifty New Zealand has a temperate climate. You know,
climate change will affect everyone, but it will affect us
(02:07):
less than almost everybody else. We're going to have great
growing conditions. And look, I think the world's going to
want our products more of the countries, the sort of
middle income uniting countries, their wealth is growing. They want
to eat the things, they want to consume the things
that we produce. I'm very confident that the way New
Zealand produces protein and amazing fruit products. You know, even
(02:28):
if you get down to wool, you know, wool's on
a bit of a resurgence and if you hear it
field days, you want to get down and have a
look at the wall site because there's just so many
more things we can do with New Zealand's natural products.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
We're going to be talking to Miles Hurrald, chief executive
of Fonterra, and just to tick they're doing a lot
of the heavy lifting the dairy industry. Of that sixty
billion twenty seven billion, nearly half of it belongs to
the dairy sector, and we're going to talk to Miles
about that one. But I put it to you, if
you are to double these exports in the next decade,
(02:59):
I think you're going to have to to horticulture.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Well, I think I think what New Zealand will do
is it will do more of what it's best in
the world at. And what New Zealand's best in the
world at is growing protein. So we're you know, we've
got amongst the best farming capabilities in the world. We've
got a climate and swirls that are amazing for growing product.
So I think we'll do more dairy farming. I think
we'll do more she can beef farming. I think we'll
(03:23):
grow horticulture. If you look at Kiwi fruit, it's now
nearly four billion dollars, it's grown by a billion dollars
in a year's that's phenomenal growth. But you know you
see twelve percent growth in dairy production, just sixteen percent
just in one year. The world wants those products will
keep growing in the things that we're best in the
world at.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
Jamming Now, dairy has been number one for quite a while.
Meat and wall mainly meat, let's be honest, has been
a solid number two. Horticulture and forestry used to be
dead even at third equal. Horticulture has stolen a jump
on forestry but it was good to see farustry jumping
back nine percent to be up to six point three billion,
because it's been tough for that industry.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Yeah, it's been pretty hard in the forestry sector, I
mean forestry. You know, fifty two percent of all of
our kind of forestry wood process products go into China,
into that China market. So we're very dependent on what's
happening in the China market. And we know that building
and construction has been flat there as they've looked to
kind of stimulate the economy. Now we've sent a bit
of a lift in finished wood products just over a
(04:27):
billion dollars, and actually that's been helped by Pan Pack
getting its millback up and running in the Hawk's Bay
following the big cyclone.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Interesting of all the slides you showed at your wonderful
presentation there this morning to the industry. Our export markets,
China still dominates. We're sending thirty one percent of what
we export to China. The United States has taken over
a second, Australia's third, just ahead of the EU. It's
not that long ago that Australia was number one.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Well that's right, but that free trade agreement that was
signed up with China some years back. Now has really
unleashed the huge potential of New Zealand's growers to get
into a market that's really now very mature. Our relationships
and look I when I was in China just a
month or so ago. My relationships with my counterpart agencies
in China is very warm. We can work through all
(05:18):
sorts of market access issues together. The logistics of trading
between New Zealand and China are well established. Our companies
have huge representation in China. I mean, I think Fonterra
has something like seven hundred people based in China. I
know Silver, Firn and other companies have a large presence
in China. So it's a really critical market to us.
And we have a particular trade architecture with China which
(05:39):
I think will guarantee that you'll see products going there
and us getting good returns off them for many years
to come.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
Well, Race Smith, I know it's been a very good
day for the primary sector. Well done. This is the
bloke who's running MPI. Ray Smith
That is Dennis Brian Wilson. Should I say from the
beach boys, God only knows. Of course, he passed away
at the ripe old age of eighty two. And I
guess that's a nice segue into our first guest on
the country today. He is the director General of MPI.
His name is Ray Smith, and Ray, I'm going to
say to you, God only knows what we would do
without the primary sector. Do you like what I did there?
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Well, actually, Jamie has some pretty good vibrations in the
primary sector. Actually, right at the moment, what an absolute
blockbuster announcement. We've got nearly sixty billion dollars in export innings,
three billion dollars more than we could have forecast, a
twelve percent growth rate, and almost across all categories of
the primary sector. So look, I think a lot of growers, producers, farmers,
(00:46):
big processing companies, people working in market. I think if
you're really proud to be a key today knowing that
the world wants our products.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Hey, when I was a kid growing up, there was
a program on TV we're doing nostalgia here called the
six million dollar Man. I really wanted to call you
the sixty billion dollar Man, but you just came up short. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Look, we really pushed our economists there to try and
find that last little bit. So look, you know, if
we could have just got a little bit more out
of the wine industry, we would have been okay. Mean,
they've had a bit of a tough year, to be
fair to them. But look everyone, look, once we get
to the final focuse, you never know, we might just
get across that sixty billion dollar line.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Well, god on, youre so fifty nine point nine billion
for the year end of June thirty, twenty twenty five.
Here's an interesting number, sixty five point seven billion by
twenty twenty nine. That is four years away. Now, the
government has ordered you ray as a government servant, a
servant to double export primary sector exports in a decade.
(01:44):
You're gonna have to do a bit better than that.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Yeah, well, look, I think we've got to try and
raise it up to one hundred and six billion by
twenty thirty four. So we're looking about another twenty five
percent lift and performance across that period of time. But
if you if you think about it, another two billion
people are going to join the world between now and
twenty fifty New Zealand has a temperate climate. You know,
climate change will affect everyone, but it will affect us
(02:07):
less than almost everybody else. We're going to have great
growing conditions. And look, I think the world's going to
want our products more of the countries, the sort of
middle income uniting countries, their wealth is growing. They want
to eat the things, they want to consume the things
that we produce. I'm very confident that the way New
Zealand produces protein and amazing fruit products. You know, even
(02:28):
if you get down to wool, you know, wool's on
a bit of a resurgence and if you hear it
field days, you want to get down and have a
look at the wall site because there's just so many
more things we can do with New Zealand's natural products.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
We're going to be talking to Miles Hurrald, chief executive
of Fonterra, and just to tick they're doing a lot
of the heavy lifting the dairy industry. Of that sixty
billion twenty seven billion, nearly half of it belongs to
the dairy sector, and we're going to talk to Miles
about that one. But I put it to you, if
you are to double these exports in the next decade,
(02:59):
I think you're going to have to to horticulture.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Well, I think I think what New Zealand will do
is it will do more of what it's best in
the world at. And what New Zealand's best in the
world at is growing protein. So we're you know, we've
got amongst the best farming capabilities in the world. We've
got a climate and swirls that are amazing for growing product.
So I think we'll do more dairy farming. I think
we'll do more she can beef farming. I think we'll
(03:23):
grow horticulture. If you look at Kiwi fruit, it's now
nearly four billion dollars, it's grown by a billion dollars
in a year's that's phenomenal growth. But you know you
see twelve percent growth in dairy production, just sixteen percent
just in one year. The world wants those products will
keep growing in the things that we're best in the
world at.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
Jamming Now, dairy has been number one for quite a while.
Meat and wall mainly meat, let's be honest, has been
a solid number two. Horticulture and forestry used to be
dead even at third equal. Horticulture has stolen a jump
on forestry but it was good to see farustry jumping
back nine percent to be up to six point three billion,
because it's been tough for that industry.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Yeah, it's been pretty hard in the forestry sector, I
mean forestry. You know, fifty two percent of all of
our kind of forestry wood process products go into China,
into that China market. So we're very dependent on what's
happening in the China market. And we know that building
and construction has been flat there as they've looked to
kind of stimulate the economy. Now we've sent a bit
of a lift in finished wood products just over a
(04:27):
billion dollars, and actually that's been helped by Pan Pack
getting its millback up and running in the Hawk's Bay
following the big cyclone.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Interesting of all the slides you showed at your wonderful
presentation there this morning to the industry. Our export markets,
China still dominates. We're sending thirty one percent of what
we export to China. The United States has taken over
a second, Australia's third, just ahead of the EU. It's
not that long ago that Australia was number one.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Well that's right, but that free trade agreement that was
signed up with China some years back. Now has really
unleashed the huge potential of New Zealand's growers to get
into a market that's really now very mature. Our relationships
and look I when I was in China just a
month or so ago. My relationships with my counterpart agencies
in China is very warm. We can work through all
(05:18):
sorts of market access issues together. The logistics of trading
between New Zealand and China are well established. Our companies
have huge representation in China. I mean, I think Fonterra
has something like seven hundred people based in China. I
know Silver, Firn and other companies have a large presence
in China. So it's a really critical market to us.
And we have a particular trade architecture with China which
(05:39):
I think will guarantee that you'll see products going there
and us getting good returns off them for many years
to come.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
Well, Race Smith, I know it's been a very good
day for the primary sector. Well done. This is the
bloke who's running MPI. Ray Smith
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