July 10, 2025 • 5 mins
We catch up with Earth Sciences New Zealand’s (formerly known as Niwa) principal scientist to find out about more heavy predicted rain.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Joined by Chris Brendolino from Newa Good afternoon, Chris, welcome
into the show. What's the lightest on this heavy predicted Ryan,
And it is happening.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yeah, it is happening. Good afternoon. Oh and by the way,
we're Earth Sciences, New Zealand now no more needs combined
with DNS.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Yeah, it is Sciences New Zealand. It's going into the
book right as we spak.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Yeah, there we go. Yeah, it loopened up of the
housekeeping back to your house. Yes, Look, it's bucketing down
pretty good at the top of the South Island. I'm
looking at some of the very recent observations by way
of the Hasmen District Council and over the past twenty
four hours there are multiple three locations where rainfall totals
(00:43):
have exceeded one and thirty five millimeters already. And these
are about the ranges and about the higher elevations, but
nonetheless very heavy rain. And we have that red warning
issued by met Service for areas for parts of the
Tasman District. Look, the rainfall mountain itself total, so this
combines what's already fallen and what's gonna come will be
(01:06):
upwards of two hundred millimeters, maybe a bit less, maybe
a bit more, and ordinarily that would trigger a red warning.
But you got to remember we had the heavy rain
two weeks ago, that was really heavy rain. Last week,
we had some decent rainfall now this week. So it's
the cumulative or compounding effects of these events which will
(01:27):
increase the odds for things like slips and flooding, and
that's a big reason for the red warnings, those impacts
expected from the heavy rainfall. And it's not just the
top of the southbound Hamish, it's other parts of the country.
So the top of the North Island copping it pretty
good right now, the good douse of rain, and I
think this afternoon and the evening the rest of the
(01:47):
North Island gets into some pretty heavy rain for a
period of time.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
Yeah, it's a whole compounding then. I mean, we'd like
interest to compound on air deposits, but we don't like
our rain on raine and that that is a real concern.
As you said previously, not always a red waring. Look,
is this a moving face? Could there be a best
case scenario that it might button off? For you're pretty
sure it's a happening thing and will continue to be, so.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
I doubt that, Hamish. I mean, we're just starting to
get into the really heavy stuff. Between now and six
o'clock basically will be the heaviest rain for the top
of the South Island. So the next four or five
six hours going to be the worst of it. And
as I mentioned earlier, there are multiple locations with already
in excess of one hundred and thirty five millimeters, So yeah,
it's basic. We're kind of midway through the journey. Other
(02:36):
places like Katanaki, we'll see some heavy rainfall good you know,
much of the country, the corrimandel can't sleep on them.
They'll get a good drop of rain one hundred plus
millimeters or more. And again the ground is so wet,
and that's kind of the issue. And I think as
we look farther afield, this is something we're going to
have to be really mindful of over the coming weeks
and months, is that we're likely to see more of
(02:59):
these events. We have low pressure coming from the west,
tap it into some pretty rich moisture to our north
and kind of sophing that down, siphing it down to
the to the to our neck of the woods, to
New Zealand exactly where things fall. That's the weather forecast.
But I can tell you from a theme perspective, a
climate outlook, the next three months are looking quite wet
for the top of both islands, where the other areas
(03:21):
of the country under the gun for potentially having rainfall.
So again, these compounding rainfall events as the ground moistens
with time, they're gonna be more of a concern as
we work away through the rest of July. We've got
to watch end of July early August. That seems to
be an area where there could be some heavy another
I guess one or two big rainfall events potentially toward
(03:42):
the end of July to early August. And unfortunately this
is something we'll probably have to deal with in some
shape or form for the rest of winter into early spring.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
That least interesting told me to Capital farmers down in
the Southland region and that saying, look, conditions have been
so good up until now, but they're a little bit
weary that when to coming is coming a little later.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Yeah, Look, touching on the lower South Island, one thing
will have to be mindful of in Southland as well
as interior or Otago where the where the catchments are
going from more agricultural to energy, which you know, we
really relying the water to produce a lot of our
energy and the hydro storage dams. Dryness is going to
become more of a concern as we work away toward
(04:27):
the you know, towards August, September, October, basically, as we
move through the end of winter and it's a springtime
and beyond, because we're expecting the lack of west the
southwest winds. It's the westerly winds that give the west
and the lower portion of the South Island all that
rangefot that you know, they notoriously get and that's going
to be absent temperatures. We're not going to find many
(04:49):
cold snaps. There'll be a few, yeah, okay, sure, but
it's not going to define the period over the next
three months warmer than average temperatures
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Thank you very much, said as Chris Brandolina Science is
in z there with the latest on the weather, foreign
emergency and action evacuations happening in that Tasman district.
Joined by Chris Brendolino from Newa Good afternoon, Chris, welcome
into the show. What's the lightest on this heavy predicted Ryan,
And it is happening.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yeah, it is happening. Good afternoon. Oh and by the way,
we're Earth Sciences, New Zealand now no more needs combined
with DNS.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Yeah, it is Sciences New Zealand. It's going into the
book right as we spak.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Yeah, there we go. Yeah, it loopened up of the
housekeeping back to your house. Yes, Look, it's bucketing down
pretty good at the top of the South Island. I'm
looking at some of the very recent observations by way
of the Hasmen District Council and over the past twenty
four hours there are multiple three locations where rainfall totals
(00:43):
have exceeded one and thirty five millimeters already. And these
are about the ranges and about the higher elevations, but
nonetheless very heavy rain. And we have that red warning
issued by met Service for areas for parts of the
Tasman District. Look, the rainfall mountain itself total, so this
combines what's already fallen and what's gonna come will be
(01:06):
upwards of two hundred millimeters, maybe a bit less, maybe
a bit more, and ordinarily that would trigger a red warning.
But you got to remember we had the heavy rain
two weeks ago, that was really heavy rain. Last week,
we had some decent rainfall now this week. So it's
the cumulative or compounding effects of these events which will
(01:27):
increase the odds for things like slips and flooding, and
that's a big reason for the red warnings, those impacts
expected from the heavy rainfall. And it's not just the
top of the southbound Hamish, it's other parts of the country.
So the top of the North Island copping it pretty
good right now, the good douse of rain, and I
think this afternoon and the evening the rest of the
(01:47):
North Island gets into some pretty heavy rain for a
period of time.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
Yeah, it's a whole compounding then. I mean, we'd like
interest to compound on air deposits, but we don't like
our rain on raine and that that is a real concern.
As you said previously, not always a red waring. Look,
is this a moving face? Could there be a best
case scenario that it might button off? For you're pretty
sure it's a happening thing and will continue to be, so.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
I doubt that, Hamish. I mean, we're just starting to
get into the really heavy stuff. Between now and six
o'clock basically will be the heaviest rain for the top
of the South Island. So the next four or five
six hours going to be the worst of it. And
as I mentioned earlier, there are multiple locations with already
in excess of one hundred and thirty five millimeters, So yeah,
it's basic. We're kind of midway through the journey. Other
(02:36):
places like Katanaki, we'll see some heavy rainfall good you know,
much of the country, the corrimandel can't sleep on them.
They'll get a good drop of rain one hundred plus
millimeters or more. And again the ground is so wet,
and that's kind of the issue. And I think as
we look farther afield, this is something we're going to
have to be really mindful of over the coming weeks
and months, is that we're likely to see more of
(02:59):
these events. We have low pressure coming from the west,
tap it into some pretty rich moisture to our north
and kind of sophing that down, siphing it down to
the to the to our neck of the woods, to
New Zealand exactly where things fall. That's the weather forecast.
But I can tell you from a theme perspective, a
climate outlook, the next three months are looking quite wet
for the top of both islands, where the other areas
(03:21):
of the country under the gun for potentially having rainfall.
So again, these compounding rainfall events as the ground moistens
with time, they're gonna be more of a concern as
we work away through the rest of July. We've got
to watch end of July early August. That seems to
be an area where there could be some heavy another
I guess one or two big rainfall events potentially toward
(03:42):
the end of July to early August. And unfortunately this
is something we'll probably have to deal with in some
shape or form for the rest of winter into early spring.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
That least interesting told me to Capital farmers down in
the Southland region and that saying, look, conditions have been
so good up until now, but they're a little bit
weary that when to coming is coming a little later.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Yeah, Look, touching on the lower South Island, one thing
will have to be mindful of in Southland as well
as interior or Otago where the where the catchments are
going from more agricultural to energy, which you know, we
really relying the water to produce a lot of our
energy and the hydro storage dams. Dryness is going to
become more of a concern as we work away toward
(04:27):
the you know, towards August, September, October, basically, as we
move through the end of winter and it's a springtime
and beyond, because we're expecting the lack of west the
southwest winds. It's the westerly winds that give the west
and the lower portion of the South Island all that
rangefot that you know, they notoriously get and that's going
to be absent temperatures. We're not going to find many
(04:49):
cold snaps. There'll be a few, yeah, okay, sure, but
it's not going to define the period over the next
three months warmer than average temperatures
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Thank you very much, said as Chris Brandolina Science is
in z there with the latest on the weather, foreign
emergency and action evacuations happening in that Tasman district.
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