August 18, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Stephen Fleming, Cameron Bagrie, Damien O'Connor, and Phil Duncan.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deer construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
To only one cut jacket out and love. Good afternoon,
(00:36):
New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. It's a bit of a cough.
This is the Country. It is brought to you by Brant.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Bit of a cricketing theme to kick it off today.
Stephen Fleming, friend of a friend of a friend, teeth
this interview up talking about getting our sheep man heat
into India on this program. Previously I've spoken to one
of his mates, Jeff Allett Stevens, of course involved with
Brendan McCullum, Daniel Vittori, Richard Sir Richard Hadley, to name
(01:12):
a few others. So what does he make of the
potential of a free trade agreement with India. We're going
to ask him very very shortly. Cameron Bagrie. Independent Economists
looking beyond tomorrow's OCR announcement. Where is neutral for the
official cash trait? Plus is the economy officially suffering from
(01:33):
long COVID? As the Herald is reporting strong economic growth
alone won't be enough to get the government's finances back
on track. Damien O'Connor gloves will come off. But a
banter with Damien and Phil Duncan missed him yesterday. Talk
about the weather. It's cold, but it's mid August. Stephen
Fleming to kick off the country. That is a small world.
(02:07):
A friend of a friend of a friend had dinner
with this bloke in Vietnam, I think, and said he
was a bit of a listener to the country. Well
known key Week cricketer legend in fact, Stephen Fleming and
Steven Can I call you Canterbury farmer as well?
Speaker 4 (02:21):
No, no, that would be far to lose. But thank
you Jamie. It nice to talk to you.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Well, you have got a vested interest in agriculture. You're
involved with, amongst others, Brenda McCullum, Daniel Vittori, Jeff Ellert,
who I've spoken to before on this show. Sir Richard Hadley,
you guys are trying to get New Zealand sheep meats
into India and like the rest of us, you're waiting
with baited breath for an FTA. What chance?
Speaker 5 (02:47):
Well, I think more chance than before. I think this government.
Tom McLay has done a good job. I've been over
to India a number of times and one of the
key things with India is creating relationships.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
They have to.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
Be bone deep rather than skin deep, and creating those
and I think they're making some pretty good progress. There's
some great synergy between the two countries that go way back.
Sirmond Hillary is held in such high esteem and Sir
Richard Hadley. So look, getting the products into India is
a bit of a challenge, but once they're they're selling
them with the New Zealand name is quite easy.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
So currently we've got something I think, correct me if
I'm wrong with thirty percent tariff on sheep meat. The
Aussies get theirs and without one, that's a huge stumbling
block for us.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Yeah, it is.
Speaker 5 (03:31):
And if you look at the history of our company,
we've been operating in India for twelve years and in
twenty twenty three we had eighty six percent of land
meat into India was our so that's a really dominant
position and that was growing as well as the hotels.
The five star hotels were growing throughout India. Twelve months
later we're down to sixty eight, so saw a really
(03:51):
strong position. But the drop has been because the Australian
market is now operating with a thirty three percent left
and less tariff going in the country and that's a
hard one to compete with. We have a great relationship
with Alliance and I've had some tough times, but they've
been a great partner. They've bought into the vision of
what India could become. But it's just become very hard
(04:13):
to compete with that type of that type of tariff
and discount that we're having to put into to stay competitive.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
We're still in there, but.
Speaker 5 (04:20):
It's creating some challenges. So we're hopeful of something some
news from FTA news coming soon.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Your company is quality in z As you mentioned, you've
got a star studded stable a cricketers in there. You've
also got I think some all blacks who are silent partners.
But when it comes to pulling power in India, the
all blacks wouldn't have much compared to the like see yourself,
Brendan McCallum, Daniel Vittori.
Speaker 4 (04:44):
No, we've got them on this one.
Speaker 5 (04:46):
There's no doubt that in there we will dominate. But
having all blacks as shearholders, you don't want to mess
around with them, so you've got to make sure we
get a return for them. Otherwise they've got a bit
more muscle than US cricketers, so it could be interesting.
Speaker 4 (05:00):
Board discussion or a shareholder's conference. If we don't do
the business.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
India will become the third biggest economy in the world,
obviously behind the US and China in five years by
twenty thirty. These are the numbers I've got Stephen from Wikipedia.
They can't possibly be wrong. One hundred and forty million
middle class households are twenty one million high income households.
The potential is almost limitless if we can get our
(05:26):
stuff in there at a fair rate.
Speaker 5 (05:29):
Yes, actually scary. And the other one is the fastest
growing major economy, so they are six to seven percent growth,
which is phenomenal, and it's very self sufficient. If you
look at almost their population, they have sixty percent of
the population under thirty five, so very young. And the
education system is worth noting because it's so strong through
(05:52):
India that they've now got this real drive, some of
it Western is education coming back and with a huge
workforcetes just flying. So I know there are companies New
zeal companies just waiting for the STA and what we
want to do with our supply chain, which we control,
is to become that gateway to India because when you
(06:12):
look at those numbers, it's just mouthwatering what some of
our products could do.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
What initially stirred your interest about getting New Zealand sheep
meat into India? Because I know when you finished with
the Black Caps you went to the IPL without being
unkind Steven, you've probably made more money in your life
than you can spend. You don't necessarily need to do this.
What was the motivation?
Speaker 5 (06:34):
Well, the rupe is not what it used to be,
Jamie Say's still a bit of work to be done,
but I appreciate the point. I think it's actually the
relationship with India and Jiff Allen and a friend of
our Jif then we're a big driver of that. They
saw an opportunity, but we actually weren't sure what it
was going to be. So it was twelve months of
due diligence. Where it was water, where there was other products,
(06:56):
but lamb meat came through, sheep meat came through Loud Clear,
and so we just formed some relationships and gave it
a crack and the growth rate was fantastic. We had
to plant a friend gift then in Bangalore in market
to do some work and we just started creating relationships.
Speaker 4 (07:14):
And I think that's what the IPL has done.
Speaker 5 (07:16):
When you tour in India its for weeks or a month,
couple of months of the time with the IPL, year
upon year, you get to know people, you get to
form relationships, and you start understanding the country. And once
you start understanding it, it's the biggest thing speaking country
in the world, which people don't realize. So it's a
lot easier to make those connections and form those relationships,
(07:37):
both personal and business. And you just start to realize
that with New Zealand's good name and the scope and
the energy of India, and as Prime Minister mode, he said,
turning the red tape into red carpet, it was just
too good to refuse or not to look at.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
So it hasn't been easy. There's been a huge amount
of work.
Speaker 5 (07:55):
I reckon, I've met over two three hundred shifts during
the during my time the IPL. So the old time
on the running machine had to go up because they
just love it. They love our produce and they love
anything the New Zealand on it so it's a really
nice but it's a good cyentergy. It's a great way
for former sportsman like myself and Brandon to learn other
(08:15):
aspects around business and also create a good story for
New Zealand, which is I guess part of the ego
of wanting to do well in business.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
You have got a life sentence block or a lifestyle
block outside of christ Judge, do you have a farming
or rural background.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
No, I don't, and I still don't.
Speaker 5 (08:32):
It's trial and error, but it's great fun. It's a
teen acre of cannibary lifestyle block. I think at the moment,
three sheep, five chickens, a couple of dogs and three kids,
so that.
Speaker 4 (08:43):
That's enough for me. In fact, that's too much for me.
Really need some outside help on that one.
Speaker 5 (08:47):
But good fun, very good fun, and again good to
learn some new skills outside holding a cricket back.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Well, Stephen Fleming, I'm guessing if you've got ten acres
and only three sheep, you spend a bit of time
on the right on MOA.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Do you well?
Speaker 5 (08:59):
I was listening to you, Jamie got me through a
couple of acres those lonestime shows, So no, it's been enjoyable.
I think it's around on the sunny days about two coronas,
so that's a good way to measure it.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
Just on a lighter note to finish, Stephen Fleming, I
hear from my friend of a friend of a friend
that you are second only to the Briscoes Lady. I
think a fellow Cantabrium as the longest standing brand ambassador.
Of course she's been the Briscoes Lady forever. You have
celebrated twenty five years as the Fijitsu Heat Pumps brand ambass.
Speaker 5 (09:33):
That's true, Jamie's that's true. It actually very proud of it.
But yeah, that one of the goals that we see
was to try and catch Tammy who Temmy? What was?
She does a great job, but she seems to be
getting younger. She's the Benjamin Button of advertising. She's getting
younger every advert where I'm going the other way, So
I'm not sure I'm going to tick that goal off.
Speaker 4 (09:52):
But no, it's been a great, great association.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
And finish on international cricket, how good is kin Williamson.
Speaker 5 (10:01):
Well, I'm pausing because I about to say he's one
of the best, if not the best. And while it's
rarefied here and great here to have for he's younger
speaking like that, but I know him well and I
just love him. I think he is a magnificent person.
But he has just been so good for so long,
and what New Zealand cricket needs is excellent. Sir Richard
(10:25):
Hadley was our greatest player, but now in the last
of five six seventeen years, we've produced some of the
best and he is right up there. I've heard discussions
about him being better than Sir Richard. You don't deserve
to have that chat. It's just great to have these
young guys and Williamson leading a new era of outstanding players.
(10:45):
So I'm really proud of them. I think creekt is
in great shape and they've certainly taken the game forward
since my time and creating a new level of success
which is to be celebrated by all.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
And I know you were a keen rugby player in
your youth, and saying Kin Williamson is better than Sir
Richard Hadley's a bit like saying Richie McCaw and Dan
Carter are greater than Colin Meads. You can't really say it,
can you?
Speaker 4 (11:07):
No, you can't.
Speaker 5 (11:08):
You got to celebrate them both and the fact we're
even discussing it is brilliant. I think it's Sir Richard
was hands down as the best player we had during
that era and came Williamson.
Speaker 6 (11:19):
Is that for us?
Speaker 5 (11:19):
But we have people just behind and to some of
all parts, isn't it when you think about the Bolts
and the Southeast and the Wagoners in that era of
bowling and some of the batting coming through now. It's
it's a pleasure to watch Stephen Fleming.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
It's been a pleasure to chat to you on the country.
Don't be a stranger. Good luck getting your lamb into
India when we finally cracked that FTA fingers crossed, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Good to talk to you, Thanks buddy.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
Thank you. Steven Fleming eighteen after twelve. Excuse me, I've
got a bit of the man flu going on here.
Someone has texted in and said, turned down the background music.
We can't hear anything. Apologies, listener or text or airs
slightly blocked a year on a chainsaw when I was
(12:04):
a young man without air muffs. I'm paying the price.
Plus thirty years with radio headphones just doesn't help. But
sometimes selective hearing can be a really good thing. Also,
some more of your feedback coming through. What a refreshing
take on our red meat prospects in India from Stephen Fleming. Yes,
this challenges, but they're not insurmountable and the market opportunity
(12:28):
is huge. Give us more of this. He speaks really well.
And I've got a tip my hat to former producer
Rowena Duncan if she's listening. She's at a FMG now
still doing a bit of moon lighting for us. She
is the friend of a friend of a friend who
teed up this interview, So thanks for that, Row. It
is twenty after twelve. Up next. It was a really
(12:52):
interesting story in the Herald this morning, a column about
the New Zealand economy sufferring from long COVID and the
fact that strong economic growth alone and this is what
the government is all about, obviously won't be enough to
get the government's finances back on track. So what is
(13:13):
the solution more spending cuts or increased texas. We'll have
a look at that one with Cameron Bagri up next.
Independent Economists, and of course it's ocr day tomorrow. We're
going to get a twenty five basis point cut, But
more importantly, what will the sentiment be? Where do we
head after that? Or is that as good as it gets?
Cameron Bagri up next on the Country.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
Jun ask him never worth a crowd, He's the Lagarunga.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
He's an independent economist. Today we find him in the
beautiful township village. Well, it's actually bigger than that of Cambridge.
In the whiteat Cameron Bagri. Now, tomorrow the Reserve Bank
will make its official o CR announcement. We know we're
going to get a twenty five basis point cut. I
guess the big question is beyond that Cameron is neutral
two seven five or two fifty.
Speaker 6 (14:19):
Well neutral, which is where there is zero banks neither
got the foot on the accelerate for the break. It's
generally thought to be around three now. So what we're
seeing so far is the Reserve Bank has taking the
foot off the break the assumption that we get an
out of twenty five basis points are yet to really
push on the accelerator. And I guess there's a bit
of a debate going on out there at the moment
(14:41):
because there's two big picture issues. Book one, the economy
is still obviously spluttering, spluttering, quantament suggests you've got to
push on the gas, you push on accelerator, take that
deficient cash right below three. And that's what the market
is thinking at the moment. But now the caveat here, Jamie,
because the reserve banks got infatient number and inflation headline
(15:04):
at least is starting to head back up. They won't
get too caught up and rising headline inflation, but we're
going to keep an eye on those core measures. Core
inflation are still coming down. Why because fims don't have
too much pricing power because the economy's pretty weak, But
they'll still I think have a bit of crack and
just a reminder that headline inflation is moving up to
(15:24):
the store a little bit to keep an eye on.
Speaker 2 (15:27):
There's a really good column in the Herald today. I
don't know whether they've read it by Jan somebody and apologies, Jan,
I've forgotten your second name. But she's saying she's a
business correspondent. She's saying we're officially suffering from not just
a COVID hangover, but we're suffering from long COVID even
though Grant Robinson's obviously and denial there. And she's saying
(15:49):
strong economic growth alone won't be enough to get the
government's finances back on tracks. So she's basically saying we
either need more spending cuts or higher tag or a
broader tach space.
Speaker 6 (16:02):
What do you say, yes, So, if you look at
the numbers government debt, net debt has gone from about
twenty percent of GDP the normal range now looks like
it's going to be up around forty to fifty percent
of GDP. Now those are not exactly bad numbers compared
to international peers, but you've got to remember that in
(16:23):
New Zealand's a little bit shaky natural disasters now we
tend to see one every sort of ten years, and
you want to make sure you got a little bit
of cash in the bank to deploy.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
I use your.
Speaker 6 (16:33):
Balance sheet to navigate those tough times, which is what
we did with COVID, which is what we did with
the christ sort of quake. So at this juncture, it's
a strong argument for trying to put a little bit
more money back in the pin I pay debt down.
But the government at the moment is obviously running some
pretty big deficits. The projection say we're going to go
from deficit to surplus I'm not in that camp. I
(16:58):
unless we see some pretty big structural changes along the
lines of ie containing the element of expenditure, or get
more tax coming in the door, and then we're going
to have a few physical challenges going forward. Because I
remember Jamie, we have yet to really see the physical
impact of an aging population within the fiscal numbers. And
Treasure is going to release a piece of work in
(17:20):
about three to four months where they every four years
they model draw attention to the fiscal impact of an
aging population. There's those number of retirees A sixty five
plus goes from nine hundred thousand to two point two million.
That puts a fair bit of pressure on New Zealand superannuation.
That puts a fair bit of pressure on health care
spending going forward, We're going to have a fair bit
(17:42):
of work to do to try to balance the box.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Well, surely that would be the first place you would
look if you were looking at spending cuts. The cost
of super rose, and I'm quoting her here rose thirty
nine percent from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four. It'll
arise another twenty eight percent by twenty twenty eight. But
here's the worrying stat or one of them. Cameron Bagriy,
(18:04):
In thirty five years time, twenty five percent of our
population will be over the age of sixty five. We're
currently sitting at sixteen percent. We are just lumbering the
next generation with unaffordable debt.
Speaker 6 (18:20):
We face some choices. And you know, if you look
at the combination of health and superannuation, expenditure is projected
to go from about eleven percent of GDP to about
twenty in the next thirty to forty years.
Speaker 5 (18:36):
Now.
Speaker 6 (18:36):
Now that is a huge burden or cost on future taxpayers. Yeah,
so once again we've got to make some choices here,
and unfortunately superannuation there's one of those things that no
one wants to make a hard choice on, but we
are going to need to make a hard choice on.
And it's not just because of the cost. With the relativities.
We now spend more on New Zealand superinhulation than the
(19:00):
operation we spend across the entire education sector. So we're
spending more on the gray horse, and we're spending more
than what we spend on the future workforce. And I
look at those sort of stats and it just doesn't
make any sense. And that's stepping aside from the obvious,
which is as the population ages, and it is agent
the population ah eighty five parts is projected to go
(19:21):
from one hundred thousand to about five hundred and fifty thousand,
so it's not the crippling up by factor of five.
So mad IMPACT's healthcare and we need to find a
solution here and it's going to be across. It needs
to be bipartisans so we get agreement consistency going forward.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
And there's one big stumbling blocker's name is Winston Peters. Hey,
Cameron Bagrie, thanks as always for your time on the country.
Enjoy your day in Cambridge.
Speaker 6 (19:46):
Great Rowing Paratry, jam.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Indeed it is Cameron, Great Rowing and Cycling Territory, Independent Economists.
Cameron Bagrie always makes a lot of sense. You're loving
flam out there. Great interview, what a great speaker, clear
and concise. Our farmer directors in all shapes and forms
could learn a lot from them. And another one saying, Jamie,
(20:11):
the government should be jumping in and helping these cricketers
as much as possible to get a free trade deal
into India. Then Trump he can stick his tariffs where
the sun don't shine from John. Thanks for that, John, Yeah.
I think to be fair, the current government is pretty
hot on a free trade agreement with India. I know
that John Key used Stephen Fleming and co. I think
(20:34):
he was invited on Luckson's last trip. Couldn't make it,
Steven Fleming, I think he might have been doing something
around the IPL at the time. But the Labor government
of twenty seventeen to twenty twenty three did they fly
the white flag on an FDA with India? Did they
make an effort? Let's ask the bloke who was the
Minister of Trade up next. Gloves are off, Damian O'Connor
(20:57):
on the Country.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
Knew.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
She's done, Welcome back to the country. Damian O'Connor was
the Minister of Agriculture and Trade in the Dan Hipkins
government twenty seventeen to twenty twenty three. Damien, we've spoken
(21:29):
to Stephen Fleming already on the show about getting our
sheep meat into India and how much a free trade
agreement would help. Were you guilty of dropping the ball
on a free trade agreement with India? You were only
luke warm on it.
Speaker 7 (21:43):
Cure it, Jamie, No, it wasn't luke warm. I was
just honest and I said we'd have to build relationshipships
and it would take time. And clearly the issue was
theiry we could have a free trade agreement, I guess
focused on a few key areas, and one of them
would be sheep meat, no doubt. But in other areas
it's quite tricky, and I guess that's what the government's
(22:04):
working through now. The Prime Ministre or the leader of
the opposition at the time, promised us an agreement within
three years. Let's wait and see. You know, I hope
we do get one and as soon as possible. But
the realities of the India democracy and the economune over there.
I mean, you know, it's a big challenge, but of
course we would like one.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
Before we start arguing, I do respect your background and trade,
why don't we just do an agreement within there and
just forget about dairy. So look, okay, we understand why
you don't want to go there, but let's do something
on sheep meat, Let's do something on Keywi fruit, horticulture, whatever.
Let's be like the Aussies.
Speaker 7 (22:40):
Well we'll ask Kimberly crude or any other dairy industry
people what they think about that, you know, And I
guess if they endorse it and said, look, it's fine
by us, then I guess that might give the government
an easier pathway to sign something off. But I'm guessing
as our single biggest exports sector, we probably need to
ensure that we have opportunities for especially when we sign
(23:01):
up with a trade agreement with you know, arguably the
strongest growing economy in the world.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
Well, what is the strongest growing economy in the world.
Stephen Fleming told me that, and I believe flem on
that one. They're also Damian O'Connor going to be the
world's third biggest economy by the year twenty thirty. There
is almost unlimited potential if we can just get our
foot in the door.
Speaker 7 (23:23):
Well, yes, I'm in China and labor government signed the
free trade agreement and upgraded it with China, it's the
second biggest economy, and you know, we've seen that that
is incredibly valuable, but it goes through its ups and
downs as well, And so yes, we need one with India. Yes,
we need to continue trading with the US and all
other economies across the globe. Debt, but you know there
(23:46):
are challenges at a time of global uncertainty. If we
can get the India or one over the line, that'll
be great.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
We're going to be speaking to Todd McLay on Thursday's show.
He's going to be in Washington, d C. Is he
wasting his time?
Speaker 7 (24:00):
It's good that he's got over there, and it's good
that he will try. I can't you know, predictor or
even second guess what will come from Washington day by day.
I think that's the challenge that the most of the
global economy faces. You know, I'm sure he will do
his best to try and you know, ensure that our
(24:21):
interests are protected. But you know it was a little
slow early on. You know, Donald Trump indicated this from
day one. We're just we're not as badly offered some
countries around the world, but we're still a slight disadvantage
to Australia, and I guess that's one of the issues
we should focus on.
Speaker 2 (24:38):
I was reading a report online this morning saying the
live export ban, the repeal of it. Of course, you
introduced the live export ban is stuck in cabinet. Limbo.
Is this proving a bridge too far for the government.
Speaker 7 (24:52):
Well, I'm hoping that there might be enough sensible people
in cabinet and it probably comes down to one or
two of them if you think this is just a
crazy move and it's not worth the effort at a
time when the industry, you know that the number of
ships and the industry cross the globe is shrinking. People
don't like it. And indeed, you know, our future is
in is in breeding and growing and processing and sending
(25:17):
food from New Zealand. You know, the small number of
animals that have been exported. It's huge risk to our
reputation along with the animal welfare and other human aspects.
It's just not worth it.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
But we're going broke as a country thanks to your government,
so and this is worth this is worth halfwing.
Speaker 7 (25:36):
Hold on, hold on, that's you.
Speaker 6 (25:37):
You're you know, swallowing all the.
Speaker 7 (25:40):
Rhetoric and the ramble that you're hearing from this current government.
Would everyone who received a wage substy please hand it back.
You know that might be the wasteful, so called wasteful
spend that we've been accused of. We spent billions of
dollars to keep our economy going, to keep people in
work and to keep people safe. And it's all very
well in high sight to say, oh, it was wasteful spend. Look,
(26:02):
this government doesn't have an economic plan. All they can
do is is point back to us and say it's
their fault. It's their fault. You know, let's see what
their plan is. And it's been completely absent.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Okay, well we'll look, Damien. I'm going to give you
some credit up to the election of twenty twenty and
obviously the country was with you. You got the first
outright majority under AMMP. But from there on in it
was a disaster. You got literally everything wrong because a
total disaster.
Speaker 5 (26:29):
We cooked.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
The economy is cooked well.
Speaker 7 (26:32):
We had a Ukraine War, we had post COVID inflation,
and a lot of those additional costs flow through to
our economy, making it really hard in a post COVID situation.
We were covering from tourism, there was a whole lot
of things that were adversely effected. We accepted that, but
you know, this government has just throttled the economy, slowed
(26:53):
it down, you know, just beyond recession, the one that
they caused, and there's no plan for where we're going,
and so you know, focus on them at the moment,
it's all very well going. Try and blame us, you know,
let's look forward. Let ask the government what's their plan.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
Is everyone from the Adan Hipkins government in denial.
Speaker 7 (27:13):
Not in denial law. The fact that Grant Robertson is
about what what.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
About your COVID spend up? Well?
Speaker 7 (27:21):
What what?
Speaker 6 (27:22):
What would The.
Speaker 7 (27:24):
Opposition of the day was asking us to spend more
on wage subsidies, more to help industry and business. They
were the ones asking for more. We spent what we
thought was necessary to protect people's lives, to protect jobs
through wage subsidies, to protect you know, individual businesses. We
did that and yes it was a lot of money.
(27:46):
But you know, I can't identify areas.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
Amen, you did that well on spending. You did that
well on spending and encouraging the economy that you ended
up with an outburst and the price of housing went
through the roof.
Speaker 7 (28:01):
I don't think it was cause because of that. I
think we were trying to build as many as we could.
This government once again has just made that worse by
chasing thousands and thousands of chippies off shore. You know,
that's as crazy we are still now look at what's happened. Now,
don't try and blame it all.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
Let's just finish on Chippies, the one who's in charge
of you at the moment. Did he make a mistake.
Was it a tactical error not fronting up to the
COVID inquiry? I understand why. To be fair, I'm not
even being fair because I think they should front up
as well. But just cinder Ardur and Grant Robertson are
no longer in public office or in public life. I
guess they're free to do what they want. But Chippy
(28:41):
and Asheveral should have fronted up.
Speaker 7 (28:43):
No, they shouldn't have. They answered all the questions that
will ask of them by this second Royal Commission, one
that arguably doesn't really know what it's up to because
the first commission has covered all issues and given recommendation.
This second one is a bit of a showcase. And
it's been you know, demanded by New Zealand first and
(29:06):
they want to release the report and the hope that
they can continue on with the narrative that everything was
to blame for the last labor government in COVID and
that's a ridiculous situation. Time has moved on. Time for
the government and its coalition partners to move on and
tell us what they are going to do rather than
worry about you know what, you know what might have been.
Speaker 6 (29:29):
They all my.
Speaker 7 (29:30):
Colleagues fronted have answered all the questions that the Royal
Commission has asked. There was no need for them to
go up and have some kind of you know, public hanging.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
And here was I thinking it was your fault. Day
man proved me wrong.
Speaker 7 (29:45):
Well, well, it might take some time, but maybe you'll
come You'll come around, Jamie, But you know, I'm not
going to hold my breath on.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
That got it on you, Damian O'Connor, former Agriculture and
Trade minister. We're going to take a break. Rural news,
rural news, get it right, and sports news on the
other side of it. Oh, welcome back to the country.
(30:22):
Dangerous by rock set music chosen by Michelle Watt today,
m dangerous to read some of your texts without filtering
them first. You're into Damien. You love flem Stephen Fleming.
Damien's getting a bit of a roasting. Will come back
to that, Michelle, Good afternoon. Let's let's see what's happening
(30:43):
in rural news. I better preread the sports news, so
this could be another reading disaster on the country.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
The country's world news with cub Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn bower bread visit steel Ford dot co
dot said for your locals, darkist as.
Speaker 8 (30:59):
Long as one of us gets it right, Jamie, I
think it's all right. No one out of two.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
Oh yeah, okay, Well I'm just pre reading the sports news,
so why you go buy me some time?
Speaker 8 (31:08):
So r on news. Pig farmers in New Zealand are
warning that are proposed change the resource management system could
undermine the future of local pork production. Environment and planning
manager at pork Ing ZID Hannah Richie says the reforms,
ranging from freshwater management to rules around highly productive land
and infrastructure, pros risks to the viability of pig farming
and long term access to locally grown food. With more
(31:31):
than sixty percent of pork that is consumed in New
Zealand being imported, the main concern is that the pork
sector is further compromised. Consumers will be more compromised and
depending on imported pork with these reforms. I think we
should find out some more about that. With some of
our pork contacts.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Maybe indeed, you've got to buy. We've got to support
New Zealand grown pork. We import most of it. It's sad,
isn't it. What about the carbon footprint? Here's sport sports.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
Where the haf go Kiwi to the bone. Since nineteen oh.
Speaker 2 (31:59):
Four, all blacks Patrick Twoey Paloto and Anton Lennet Brown
will be absent due to respective head and nose knocks
this week against Argentina and Buenos Aires. Prop to Mighty
Williams and loose forward Wallace Settiti are poised to return. Actually,
my man Ethan de Groot, the Southland of the Stag's
doing a pretty good job. That'll be interesting to see
(32:23):
how who they choose to prop the scrum at Loo
said to Mighty Williams or Ethan the Grout. And here's
an interesting story. On the eve of the US Tennis Open,
Janick Sinner has retired with illness from the Cincinnati Open
tennis final against Carlos Alcaraz, six days before he begins
(32:45):
his US Open defense. Those two are clearly the two
best players in the world now, sorry Novak, and it
looks like they could go all the way again. I
was going to say Forest Hills. It's not Forest Hills anymore.
It's Flushing Meadow and New York. That is your sports news.
Up next, we missed him or to grouped by amya
(33:07):
one texter is saying and this text is a rugby
knowledge of great knowledge. Just ask him. Thanks for that, Parnell.
Up next, Phil Duncan, we missed him yesterday. We'll get
him today, and lotsier feedback on Damian O'Connor and Stephen Fleming. Yeah,
(33:34):
he's Monday's resident weather expert. Couldn't get him yesterday. We
always get our man. He's here on a Tuesday. Phil
Duncan from weather Watch. We've had a bitterly cold blast
at the bottom of the South Island. I'm not sure
how far up the country it's gone pill but it
is mid August. We expect that the payback is a
big high is about to plant itself over the country.
Am I going to get fine frosty weather? I can
(33:54):
live with that.
Speaker 3 (33:55):
Yeah, yeah, that's right. Okay, good to be with you again.
We've got a polar flow moving up across the entire country.
The main pulse of that cold air run about lunchtime today,
is moving through Canterbury and up towards the top of
the South Island. Clears over the North Island tonight with
more of a southerly change. Westerly is ahead of that
to the North Island with a few thunderstorms today. But
(34:17):
you're right, burg high pressure coming in ten forty Hector pascals.
It's going to park itself right smack bang over the
top of the South Island as we go into the weekend,
which means it's fairly cold and fairly dry weather today.
We'll linger especially in North Canterbury, before clearing the South
Island and then get a big high rolls on in
for most of New Zealand. But the caveat is that
(34:40):
if you live in Hawks Bay, maybe parts of wided
Upper Gisbon tight after the areas that showery southerly and
the clouds could linger on a bit longer for you,
if it's any consolation. Australia's East Coast is in the
same kind of cloudy cold setup, but high pressure is
coming in for the weekend. Well.
Speaker 2 (34:56):
The one industry that will be very thankful for the
sweather at the moment is the industry. I was some
coins down over the weekend Phil Duncan and the remarkables
were almost totally bereft of snow.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
Yeah, there's been a lot of snow falling in Australia
this year, very very wintry weather in the southeast of Australia.
In fact, here's a temperature this morning. It was minus
nine at Threadbow, the ski village, and at the same
latitude on the west coast in Perth and Granted Perths
at sea level it was twenty degrees so there was
basically a thirty degree temperature difference on the same latitude
(35:30):
across Australia this morning. Very cold air stuck in the
southeast of Ozzie, giving them snow event after snow event.
In New Zealand, we've been on the warmer edge of
that most of the winter. Now we've had cold air flows.
But even the cold that's coming through today is not
what I would call brutally cold. I mean, it's tough
for newborn lambs. That don't get me wrong. It's a
real problem in fact, especially around places like Hawks Bay
(35:52):
for the next couple of days. But the temperatures are
not that brutal in New Zealand this winter that've been gown.
It's been colder than average this winter, but I don't
think it's been extreme. We hadn't been seeing lots of
minus tens or fifteens, for example.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
Phil Duncan. Thanks for your time. It was worth waiting
a day for that. That was quite brilliant.
Speaker 3 (36:10):
Here you go, Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
Thank you, fellow. It is six away from one. You're
with the Country brought to you by Brent. We're going
to wrap it with some of your feedback. Stephen Fleming
was hands down the highlight of your show. Jamie, Yeah,
I agree with you. Text on that one brilliant, wasn't he?
Unfortunately that value creation was quickly destroyed by that. I
can't read that, but another text coming in Jacinda couldn't
(36:37):
answer a question at a pub quiz let alone. The
COVID inquiry Grant Robertson speculated five billion on bonds and
lost more of your feedback on Stephen Fleming and Damian
O'Connor after the break here on the Country, lag wrapping
(37:02):
the Country with some of your feedback and thanks for
texting in on five double nine New Zealand pork highlighting
the labeling when looking for it in the supermarket might
help unless the supermarket where I shop is not selling
New Zealand pork. That's from Pete and Pete that the
labeling's appalling. It says stuff like New Zealand processed pork.
(37:25):
It doesn't actually mean that it's grown here in New Zealand.
Talking about productivity, one text of writs, don't forget about
five more sick days and marta Riki day. There's your
three percent decline in productivity. Yeah, I'm with you on
the extra sick days. Martaiki. I think's fine. As a
(37:46):
public holiday, it has national significance. What significance does Queen's
birthday now King's birthday have for us? In my mind
we should have just switt simply swapped Outan's birthday, King's
birthday for Marta Rick. We don't need more public holidays.
They cost us a fortune as a nation. Anyhow, that's
(38:10):
us done and dusted. Tomorrow, We've got another treat in
store for you. Michael every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist
buckle In. He's on the show tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deere machinery,
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deer construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
To only one cut jacket out and love. Good afternoon,
(00:36):
New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. It's a bit of a cough.
This is the Country. It is brought to you by Brant.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Bit of a cricketing theme to kick it off today.
Stephen Fleming, friend of a friend of a friend, teeth
this interview up talking about getting our sheep man heat
into India on this program. Previously I've spoken to one
of his mates, Jeff Allett Stevens, of course involved with
Brendan McCullum, Daniel Vittori, Richard Sir Richard Hadley, to name
(01:12):
a few others. So what does he make of the
potential of a free trade agreement with India. We're going
to ask him very very shortly. Cameron Bagrie. Independent Economists
looking beyond tomorrow's OCR announcement. Where is neutral for the
official cash trait? Plus is the economy officially suffering from
(01:33):
long COVID? As the Herald is reporting strong economic growth
alone won't be enough to get the government's finances back
on track. Damien O'Connor gloves will come off. But a
banter with Damien and Phil Duncan missed him yesterday. Talk
about the weather. It's cold, but it's mid August. Stephen
Fleming to kick off the country. That is a small world.
(02:07):
A friend of a friend of a friend had dinner
with this bloke in Vietnam, I think, and said he
was a bit of a listener to the country. Well
known key Week cricketer legend in fact, Stephen Fleming and
Steven Can I call you Canterbury farmer as well?
Speaker 4 (02:21):
No, no, that would be far to lose. But thank
you Jamie. It nice to talk to you.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Well, you have got a vested interest in agriculture. You're
involved with, amongst others, Brenda McCullum, Daniel Vittori, Jeff Ellert,
who I've spoken to before on this show. Sir Richard Hadley,
you guys are trying to get New Zealand sheep meats
into India and like the rest of us, you're waiting
with baited breath for an FTA. What chance?
Speaker 5 (02:47):
Well, I think more chance than before. I think this government.
Tom McLay has done a good job. I've been over
to India a number of times and one of the
key things with India is creating relationships.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
They have to.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
Be bone deep rather than skin deep, and creating those
and I think they're making some pretty good progress. There's
some great synergy between the two countries that go way back.
Sirmond Hillary is held in such high esteem and Sir
Richard Hadley. So look, getting the products into India is
a bit of a challenge, but once they're they're selling
them with the New Zealand name is quite easy.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
So currently we've got something I think, correct me if
I'm wrong with thirty percent tariff on sheep meat. The
Aussies get theirs and without one, that's a huge stumbling
block for us.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
Yeah, it is.
Speaker 5 (03:31):
And if you look at the history of our company,
we've been operating in India for twelve years and in
twenty twenty three we had eighty six percent of land
meat into India was our so that's a really dominant
position and that was growing as well as the hotels.
The five star hotels were growing throughout India. Twelve months
later we're down to sixty eight, so saw a really
(03:51):
strong position. But the drop has been because the Australian
market is now operating with a thirty three percent left
and less tariff going in the country and that's a
hard one to compete with. We have a great relationship
with Alliance and I've had some tough times, but they've
been a great partner. They've bought into the vision of
what India could become. But it's just become very hard
(04:13):
to compete with that type of that type of tariff
and discount that we're having to put into to stay competitive.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
We're still in there, but.
Speaker 5 (04:20):
It's creating some challenges. So we're hopeful of something some
news from FTA news coming soon.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Your company is quality in z As you mentioned, you've
got a star studded stable a cricketers in there. You've
also got I think some all blacks who are silent partners.
But when it comes to pulling power in India, the
all blacks wouldn't have much compared to the like see yourself,
Brendan McCallum, Daniel Vittori.
Speaker 4 (04:44):
No, we've got them on this one.
Speaker 5 (04:46):
There's no doubt that in there we will dominate. But
having all blacks as shearholders, you don't want to mess
around with them, so you've got to make sure we
get a return for them. Otherwise they've got a bit
more muscle than US cricketers, so it could be interesting.
Speaker 4 (05:00):
Board discussion or a shareholder's conference. If we don't do
the business.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
India will become the third biggest economy in the world,
obviously behind the US and China in five years by
twenty thirty. These are the numbers I've got Stephen from Wikipedia.
They can't possibly be wrong. One hundred and forty million
middle class households are twenty one million high income households.
The potential is almost limitless if we can get our
(05:26):
stuff in there at a fair rate.
Speaker 5 (05:29):
Yes, actually scary. And the other one is the fastest
growing major economy, so they are six to seven percent growth,
which is phenomenal, and it's very self sufficient. If you
look at almost their population, they have sixty percent of
the population under thirty five, so very young. And the
education system is worth noting because it's so strong through
(05:52):
India that they've now got this real drive, some of
it Western is education coming back and with a huge
workforcetes just flying. So I know there are companies New
zeal companies just waiting for the STA and what we
want to do with our supply chain, which we control,
is to become that gateway to India because when you
(06:12):
look at those numbers, it's just mouthwatering what some of
our products could do.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
What initially stirred your interest about getting New Zealand sheep
meat into India? Because I know when you finished with
the Black Caps you went to the IPL without being
unkind Steven, you've probably made more money in your life
than you can spend. You don't necessarily need to do this.
What was the motivation?
Speaker 5 (06:34):
Well, the rupe is not what it used to be,
Jamie Say's still a bit of work to be done,
but I appreciate the point. I think it's actually the
relationship with India and Jiff Allen and a friend of
our Jif then we're a big driver of that. They
saw an opportunity, but we actually weren't sure what it
was going to be. So it was twelve months of
due diligence. Where it was water, where there was other products,
(06:56):
but lamb meat came through, sheep meat came through Loud Clear,
and so we just formed some relationships and gave it
a crack and the growth rate was fantastic. We had
to plant a friend gift then in Bangalore in market
to do some work and we just started creating relationships.
Speaker 4 (07:14):
And I think that's what the IPL has done.
Speaker 5 (07:16):
When you tour in India its for weeks or a month,
couple of months of the time with the IPL, year
upon year, you get to know people, you get to
form relationships, and you start understanding the country. And once
you start understanding it, it's the biggest thing speaking country
in the world, which people don't realize. So it's a
lot easier to make those connections and form those relationships,
(07:37):
both personal and business. And you just start to realize
that with New Zealand's good name and the scope and
the energy of India, and as Prime Minister mode, he said,
turning the red tape into red carpet, it was just
too good to refuse or not to look at.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
So it hasn't been easy. There's been a huge amount
of work.
Speaker 5 (07:55):
I reckon, I've met over two three hundred shifts during
the during my time the IPL. So the old time
on the running machine had to go up because they
just love it. They love our produce and they love
anything the New Zealand on it so it's a really
nice but it's a good cyentergy. It's a great way
for former sportsman like myself and Brandon to learn other
(08:15):
aspects around business and also create a good story for
New Zealand, which is I guess part of the ego
of wanting to do well in business.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
You have got a life sentence block or a lifestyle
block outside of christ Judge, do you have a farming
or rural background.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
No, I don't, and I still don't.
Speaker 5 (08:32):
It's trial and error, but it's great fun. It's a
teen acre of cannibary lifestyle block. I think at the moment,
three sheep, five chickens, a couple of dogs and three kids,
so that.
Speaker 4 (08:43):
That's enough for me. In fact, that's too much for me.
Really need some outside help on that one.
Speaker 5 (08:47):
But good fun, very good fun, and again good to
learn some new skills outside holding a cricket back.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Well, Stephen Fleming, I'm guessing if you've got ten acres
and only three sheep, you spend a bit of time
on the right on MOA.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
Do you well?
Speaker 5 (08:59):
I was listening to you, Jamie got me through a
couple of acres those lonestime shows, So no, it's been enjoyable.
I think it's around on the sunny days about two coronas,
so that's a good way to measure it.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
Just on a lighter note to finish, Stephen Fleming, I
hear from my friend of a friend of a friend
that you are second only to the Briscoes Lady. I
think a fellow Cantabrium as the longest standing brand ambassador.
Of course she's been the Briscoes Lady forever. You have
celebrated twenty five years as the Fijitsu Heat Pumps brand ambass.
Speaker 5 (09:33):
That's true, Jamie's that's true. It actually very proud of it.
But yeah, that one of the goals that we see
was to try and catch Tammy who Temmy? What was?
She does a great job, but she seems to be
getting younger. She's the Benjamin Button of advertising. She's getting
younger every advert where I'm going the other way, So
I'm not sure I'm going to tick that goal off.
Speaker 4 (09:52):
But no, it's been a great, great association.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
And finish on international cricket, how good is kin Williamson.
Speaker 5 (10:01):
Well, I'm pausing because I about to say he's one
of the best, if not the best. And while it's
rarefied here and great here to have for he's younger
speaking like that, but I know him well and I
just love him. I think he is a magnificent person.
But he has just been so good for so long,
and what New Zealand cricket needs is excellent. Sir Richard
(10:25):
Hadley was our greatest player, but now in the last
of five six seventeen years, we've produced some of the
best and he is right up there. I've heard discussions
about him being better than Sir Richard. You don't deserve
to have that chat. It's just great to have these
young guys and Williamson leading a new era of outstanding players.
(10:45):
So I'm really proud of them. I think creekt is
in great shape and they've certainly taken the game forward
since my time and creating a new level of success
which is to be celebrated by all.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
And I know you were a keen rugby player in
your youth, and saying Kin Williamson is better than Sir
Richard Hadley's a bit like saying Richie McCaw and Dan
Carter are greater than Colin Meads. You can't really say it,
can you?
Speaker 4 (11:07):
No, you can't.
Speaker 5 (11:08):
You got to celebrate them both and the fact we're
even discussing it is brilliant. I think it's Sir Richard
was hands down as the best player we had during
that era and came Williamson.
Speaker 6 (11:19):
Is that for us?
Speaker 5 (11:19):
But we have people just behind and to some of
all parts, isn't it when you think about the Bolts
and the Southeast and the Wagoners in that era of
bowling and some of the batting coming through now. It's
it's a pleasure to watch Stephen Fleming.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
It's been a pleasure to chat to you on the country.
Don't be a stranger. Good luck getting your lamb into
India when we finally cracked that FTA fingers crossed, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Good to talk to you, Thanks buddy.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
Thank you. Steven Fleming eighteen after twelve. Excuse me, I've
got a bit of the man flu going on here.
Someone has texted in and said, turned down the background music.
We can't hear anything. Apologies, listener or text or airs
slightly blocked a year on a chainsaw when I was
(12:04):
a young man without air muffs. I'm paying the price.
Plus thirty years with radio headphones just doesn't help. But
sometimes selective hearing can be a really good thing. Also,
some more of your feedback coming through. What a refreshing
take on our red meat prospects in India from Stephen Fleming. Yes,
this challenges, but they're not insurmountable and the market opportunity
(12:28):
is huge. Give us more of this. He speaks really well.
And I've got a tip my hat to former producer
Rowena Duncan if she's listening. She's at a FMG now
still doing a bit of moon lighting for us. She
is the friend of a friend of a friend who
teed up this interview, So thanks for that, Row. It
is twenty after twelve. Up next. It was a really
(12:52):
interesting story in the Herald this morning, a column about
the New Zealand economy sufferring from long COVID and the
fact that strong economic growth alone and this is what
the government is all about, obviously won't be enough to
get the government's finances back on track. So what is
(13:13):
the solution more spending cuts or increased texas. We'll have
a look at that one with Cameron Bagri up next.
Independent Economists, and of course it's ocr day tomorrow. We're
going to get a twenty five basis point cut, But
more importantly, what will the sentiment be? Where do we
head after that? Or is that as good as it gets?
Cameron Bagri up next on the Country.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
Jun ask him never worth a crowd, He's the Lagarunga.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
He's an independent economist. Today we find him in the
beautiful township village. Well, it's actually bigger than that of Cambridge.
In the whiteat Cameron Bagri. Now, tomorrow the Reserve Bank
will make its official o CR announcement. We know we're
going to get a twenty five basis point cut. I
guess the big question is beyond that Cameron is neutral
two seven five or two fifty.
Speaker 6 (14:19):
Well neutral, which is where there is zero banks neither
got the foot on the accelerate for the break. It's
generally thought to be around three now. So what we're
seeing so far is the Reserve Bank has taking the
foot off the break the assumption that we get an
out of twenty five basis points are yet to really
push on the accelerator. And I guess there's a bit
of a debate going on out there at the moment
(14:41):
because there's two big picture issues. Book one, the economy
is still obviously spluttering, spluttering, quantament suggests you've got to
push on the gas, you push on accelerator, take that
deficient cash right below three. And that's what the market
is thinking at the moment. But now the caveat here, Jamie,
because the reserve banks got infatient number and inflation headline
(15:04):
at least is starting to head back up. They won't
get too caught up and rising headline inflation, but we're
going to keep an eye on those core measures. Core
inflation are still coming down. Why because fims don't have
too much pricing power because the economy's pretty weak, But
they'll still I think have a bit of crack and
just a reminder that headline inflation is moving up to
(15:24):
the store a little bit to keep an eye on.
Speaker 2 (15:27):
There's a really good column in the Herald today. I
don't know whether they've read it by Jan somebody and apologies, Jan,
I've forgotten your second name. But she's saying she's a
business correspondent. She's saying we're officially suffering from not just
a COVID hangover, but we're suffering from long COVID even
though Grant Robinson's obviously and denial there. And she's saying
(15:49):
strong economic growth alone won't be enough to get the
government's finances back on tracks. So she's basically saying we
either need more spending cuts or higher tag or a
broader tach space.
Speaker 6 (16:02):
What do you say, yes, So, if you look at
the numbers government debt, net debt has gone from about
twenty percent of GDP the normal range now looks like
it's going to be up around forty to fifty percent
of GDP. Now those are not exactly bad numbers compared
to international peers, but you've got to remember that in
(16:23):
New Zealand's a little bit shaky natural disasters now we
tend to see one every sort of ten years, and
you want to make sure you got a little bit
of cash in the bank to deploy.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
I use your.
Speaker 6 (16:33):
Balance sheet to navigate those tough times, which is what
we did with COVID, which is what we did with
the christ sort of quake. So at this juncture, it's
a strong argument for trying to put a little bit
more money back in the pin I pay debt down.
But the government at the moment is obviously running some
pretty big deficits. The projection say we're going to go
from deficit to surplus I'm not in that camp. I
(16:58):
unless we see some pretty big structural changes along the
lines of ie containing the element of expenditure, or get
more tax coming in the door, and then we're going
to have a few physical challenges going forward. Because I
remember Jamie, we have yet to really see the physical
impact of an aging population within the fiscal numbers. And
Treasure is going to release a piece of work in
(17:20):
about three to four months where they every four years
they model draw attention to the fiscal impact of an
aging population. There's those number of retirees A sixty five
plus goes from nine hundred thousand to two point two million.
That puts a fair bit of pressure on New Zealand superannuation.
That puts a fair bit of pressure on health care
spending going forward, We're going to have a fair bit
(17:42):
of work to do to try to balance the box.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Well, surely that would be the first place you would
look if you were looking at spending cuts. The cost
of super rose, and I'm quoting her here rose thirty
nine percent from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four. It'll
arise another twenty eight percent by twenty twenty eight. But
here's the worrying stat or one of them. Cameron Bagriy,
(18:04):
In thirty five years time, twenty five percent of our
population will be over the age of sixty five. We're
currently sitting at sixteen percent. We are just lumbering the
next generation with unaffordable debt.
Speaker 6 (18:20):
We face some choices. And you know, if you look
at the combination of health and superannuation, expenditure is projected
to go from about eleven percent of GDP to about
twenty in the next thirty to forty years.
Speaker 5 (18:36):
Now.
Speaker 6 (18:36):
Now that is a huge burden or cost on future taxpayers. Yeah,
so once again we've got to make some choices here,
and unfortunately superannuation there's one of those things that no
one wants to make a hard choice on, but we
are going to need to make a hard choice on.
And it's not just because of the cost. With the relativities.
We now spend more on New Zealand superinhulation than the
(19:00):
operation we spend across the entire education sector. So we're
spending more on the gray horse, and we're spending more
than what we spend on the future workforce. And I
look at those sort of stats and it just doesn't
make any sense. And that's stepping aside from the obvious,
which is as the population ages, and it is agent
the population ah eighty five parts is projected to go
(19:21):
from one hundred thousand to about five hundred and fifty thousand,
so it's not the crippling up by factor of five.
So mad IMPACT's healthcare and we need to find a
solution here and it's going to be across. It needs
to be bipartisans so we get agreement consistency going forward.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
And there's one big stumbling blocker's name is Winston Peters. Hey,
Cameron Bagrie, thanks as always for your time on the country.
Enjoy your day in Cambridge.
Speaker 6 (19:46):
Great Rowing Paratry, jam.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Indeed it is Cameron, Great Rowing and Cycling Territory, Independent Economists.
Cameron Bagrie always makes a lot of sense. You're loving
flam out there. Great interview, what a great speaker, clear
and concise. Our farmer directors in all shapes and forms
could learn a lot from them. And another one saying, Jamie,
(20:11):
the government should be jumping in and helping these cricketers
as much as possible to get a free trade deal
into India. Then Trump he can stick his tariffs where
the sun don't shine from John. Thanks for that, John, Yeah.
I think to be fair, the current government is pretty
hot on a free trade agreement with India. I know
that John Key used Stephen Fleming and co. I think
(20:34):
he was invited on Luckson's last trip. Couldn't make it,
Steven Fleming, I think he might have been doing something
around the IPL at the time. But the Labor government
of twenty seventeen to twenty twenty three did they fly
the white flag on an FDA with India? Did they
make an effort? Let's ask the bloke who was the
Minister of Trade up next. Gloves are off, Damian O'Connor
(20:57):
on the Country.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
Knew.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
She's done, Welcome back to the country. Damian O'Connor was
the Minister of Agriculture and Trade in the Dan Hipkins
government twenty seventeen to twenty twenty three. Damien, we've spoken
(21:29):
to Stephen Fleming already on the show about getting our
sheep meat into India and how much a free trade
agreement would help. Were you guilty of dropping the ball
on a free trade agreement with India? You were only
luke warm on it.
Speaker 7 (21:43):
Cure it, Jamie, No, it wasn't luke warm. I was
just honest and I said we'd have to build relationshipships
and it would take time. And clearly the issue was
theiry we could have a free trade agreement, I guess
focused on a few key areas, and one of them
would be sheep meat, no doubt. But in other areas
it's quite tricky, and I guess that's what the government's
(22:04):
working through now. The Prime Ministre or the leader of
the opposition at the time, promised us an agreement within
three years. Let's wait and see. You know, I hope
we do get one and as soon as possible. But
the realities of the India democracy and the economune over there.
I mean, you know, it's a big challenge, but of
course we would like one.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
Before we start arguing, I do respect your background and trade,
why don't we just do an agreement within there and
just forget about dairy. So look, okay, we understand why
you don't want to go there, but let's do something
on sheep meat, Let's do something on Keywi fruit, horticulture, whatever.
Let's be like the Aussies.
Speaker 7 (22:40):
Well we'll ask Kimberly crude or any other dairy industry
people what they think about that, you know, And I
guess if they endorse it and said, look, it's fine
by us, then I guess that might give the government
an easier pathway to sign something off. But I'm guessing
as our single biggest exports sector, we probably need to
ensure that we have opportunities for especially when we sign
(23:01):
up with a trade agreement with you know, arguably the
strongest growing economy in the world.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
Well, what is the strongest growing economy in the world.
Stephen Fleming told me that, and I believe flem on
that one. They're also Damian O'Connor going to be the
world's third biggest economy by the year twenty thirty. There
is almost unlimited potential if we can just get our
foot in the door.
Speaker 7 (23:23):
Well, yes, I'm in China and labor government signed the
free trade agreement and upgraded it with China, it's the
second biggest economy, and you know, we've seen that that
is incredibly valuable, but it goes through its ups and
downs as well, And so yes, we need one with India. Yes,
we need to continue trading with the US and all
other economies across the globe. Debt, but you know there
(23:46):
are challenges at a time of global uncertainty. If we
can get the India or one over the line, that'll
be great.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
We're going to be speaking to Todd McLay on Thursday's show.
He's going to be in Washington, d C. Is he
wasting his time?
Speaker 7 (24:00):
It's good that he's got over there, and it's good
that he will try. I can't you know, predictor or
even second guess what will come from Washington day by day.
I think that's the challenge that the most of the
global economy faces. You know, I'm sure he will do
his best to try and you know, ensure that our
(24:21):
interests are protected. But you know it was a little
slow early on. You know, Donald Trump indicated this from
day one. We're just we're not as badly offered some
countries around the world, but we're still a slight disadvantage
to Australia, and I guess that's one of the issues
we should focus on.
Speaker 2 (24:38):
I was reading a report online this morning saying the
live export ban, the repeal of it. Of course, you
introduced the live export ban is stuck in cabinet. Limbo.
Is this proving a bridge too far for the government.
Speaker 7 (24:52):
Well, I'm hoping that there might be enough sensible people
in cabinet and it probably comes down to one or
two of them if you think this is just a
crazy move and it's not worth the effort at a
time when the industry, you know that the number of
ships and the industry cross the globe is shrinking. People
don't like it. And indeed, you know, our future is
in is in breeding and growing and processing and sending
(25:17):
food from New Zealand. You know, the small number of
animals that have been exported. It's huge risk to our
reputation along with the animal welfare and other human aspects.
It's just not worth it.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
But we're going broke as a country thanks to your government,
so and this is worth this is worth halfwing.
Speaker 7 (25:36):
Hold on, hold on, that's you.
Speaker 6 (25:37):
You're you know, swallowing all the.
Speaker 7 (25:40):
Rhetoric and the ramble that you're hearing from this current government.
Would everyone who received a wage substy please hand it back.
You know that might be the wasteful, so called wasteful
spend that we've been accused of. We spent billions of
dollars to keep our economy going, to keep people in
work and to keep people safe. And it's all very
well in high sight to say, oh, it was wasteful spend. Look,
(26:02):
this government doesn't have an economic plan. All they can
do is is point back to us and say it's
their fault. It's their fault. You know, let's see what
their plan is. And it's been completely absent.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Okay, well we'll look, Damien. I'm going to give you
some credit up to the election of twenty twenty and
obviously the country was with you. You got the first
outright majority under AMMP. But from there on in it
was a disaster. You got literally everything wrong because a
total disaster.
Speaker 5 (26:29):
We cooked.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
The economy is cooked well.
Speaker 7 (26:32):
We had a Ukraine War, we had post COVID inflation,
and a lot of those additional costs flow through to
our economy, making it really hard in a post COVID situation.
We were covering from tourism, there was a whole lot
of things that were adversely effected. We accepted that, but
you know, this government has just throttled the economy, slowed
(26:53):
it down, you know, just beyond recession, the one that
they caused, and there's no plan for where we're going,
and so you know, focus on them at the moment,
it's all very well going. Try and blame us, you know,
let's look forward. Let ask the government what's their plan.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
Is everyone from the Adan Hipkins government in denial.
Speaker 7 (27:13):
Not in denial law. The fact that Grant Robertson is
about what what.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
About your COVID spend up? Well?
Speaker 7 (27:21):
What what?
Speaker 6 (27:22):
What would The.
Speaker 7 (27:24):
Opposition of the day was asking us to spend more
on wage subsidies, more to help industry and business. They
were the ones asking for more. We spent what we
thought was necessary to protect people's lives, to protect jobs
through wage subsidies, to protect you know, individual businesses. We
did that and yes it was a lot of money.
(27:46):
But you know, I can't identify areas.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
Amen, you did that well on spending. You did that
well on spending and encouraging the economy that you ended
up with an outburst and the price of housing went
through the roof.
Speaker 7 (28:01):
I don't think it was cause because of that. I
think we were trying to build as many as we could.
This government once again has just made that worse by
chasing thousands and thousands of chippies off shore. You know,
that's as crazy we are still now look at what's happened. Now,
don't try and blame it all.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
Let's just finish on Chippies, the one who's in charge
of you at the moment. Did he make a mistake.
Was it a tactical error not fronting up to the
COVID inquiry? I understand why. To be fair, I'm not
even being fair because I think they should front up
as well. But just cinder Ardur and Grant Robertson are
no longer in public office or in public life. I
guess they're free to do what they want. But Chippy
(28:41):
and Asheveral should have fronted up.
Speaker 7 (28:43):
No, they shouldn't have. They answered all the questions that
will ask of them by this second Royal Commission, one
that arguably doesn't really know what it's up to because
the first commission has covered all issues and given recommendation.
This second one is a bit of a showcase. And
it's been you know, demanded by New Zealand first and
(29:06):
they want to release the report and the hope that
they can continue on with the narrative that everything was
to blame for the last labor government in COVID and
that's a ridiculous situation. Time has moved on. Time for
the government and its coalition partners to move on and
tell us what they are going to do rather than
worry about you know what, you know what might have been.
Speaker 6 (29:29):
They all my.
Speaker 7 (29:30):
Colleagues fronted have answered all the questions that the Royal
Commission has asked. There was no need for them to
go up and have some kind of you know, public hanging.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
And here was I thinking it was your fault. Day
man proved me wrong.
Speaker 7 (29:45):
Well, well, it might take some time, but maybe you'll
come You'll come around, Jamie, But you know, I'm not
going to hold my breath on.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
That got it on you, Damian O'Connor, former Agriculture and
Trade minister. We're going to take a break. Rural news,
rural news, get it right, and sports news on the
other side of it. Oh, welcome back to the country.
(30:22):
Dangerous by rock set music chosen by Michelle Watt today,
m dangerous to read some of your texts without filtering
them first. You're into Damien. You love flem Stephen Fleming.
Damien's getting a bit of a roasting. Will come back
to that, Michelle, Good afternoon. Let's let's see what's happening
(30:43):
in rural news. I better preread the sports news, so
this could be another reading disaster on the country.
Speaker 1 (30:49):
The country's world news with cub Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn bower bread visit steel Ford dot co
dot said for your locals, darkist as.
Speaker 8 (30:59):
Long as one of us gets it right, Jamie, I
think it's all right. No one out of two.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
Oh yeah, okay, Well I'm just pre reading the sports news,
so why you go buy me some time?
Speaker 8 (31:08):
So r on news. Pig farmers in New Zealand are
warning that are proposed change the resource management system could
undermine the future of local pork production. Environment and planning
manager at pork Ing ZID Hannah Richie says the reforms,
ranging from freshwater management to rules around highly productive land
and infrastructure, pros risks to the viability of pig farming
and long term access to locally grown food. With more
(31:31):
than sixty percent of pork that is consumed in New
Zealand being imported, the main concern is that the pork
sector is further compromised. Consumers will be more compromised and
depending on imported pork with these reforms. I think we
should find out some more about that. With some of
our pork contacts.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Maybe indeed, you've got to buy. We've got to support
New Zealand grown pork. We import most of it. It's sad,
isn't it. What about the carbon footprint? Here's sport sports.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
Where the haf go Kiwi to the bone. Since nineteen oh.
Speaker 2 (31:59):
Four, all blacks Patrick Twoey Paloto and Anton Lennet Brown
will be absent due to respective head and nose knocks
this week against Argentina and Buenos Aires. Prop to Mighty
Williams and loose forward Wallace Settiti are poised to return. Actually,
my man Ethan de Groot, the Southland of the Stag's
doing a pretty good job. That'll be interesting to see
(32:23):
how who they choose to prop the scrum at Loo
said to Mighty Williams or Ethan the Grout. And here's
an interesting story. On the eve of the US Tennis Open,
Janick Sinner has retired with illness from the Cincinnati Open
tennis final against Carlos Alcaraz, six days before he begins
(32:45):
his US Open defense. Those two are clearly the two
best players in the world now, sorry Novak, and it
looks like they could go all the way again. I
was going to say Forest Hills. It's not Forest Hills anymore.
It's Flushing Meadow and New York. That is your sports news.
Up next, we missed him or to grouped by amya
(33:07):
one texter is saying and this text is a rugby
knowledge of great knowledge. Just ask him. Thanks for that, Parnell.
Up next, Phil Duncan, we missed him yesterday. We'll get
him today, and lotsier feedback on Damian O'Connor and Stephen Fleming. Yeah,
(33:34):
he's Monday's resident weather expert. Couldn't get him yesterday. We
always get our man. He's here on a Tuesday. Phil
Duncan from weather Watch. We've had a bitterly cold blast
at the bottom of the South Island. I'm not sure
how far up the country it's gone pill but it
is mid August. We expect that the payback is a
big high is about to plant itself over the country.
Am I going to get fine frosty weather? I can
(33:54):
live with that.
Speaker 3 (33:55):
Yeah, yeah, that's right. Okay, good to be with you again.
We've got a polar flow moving up across the entire country.
The main pulse of that cold air run about lunchtime today,
is moving through Canterbury and up towards the top of
the South Island. Clears over the North Island tonight with
more of a southerly change. Westerly is ahead of that
to the North Island with a few thunderstorms today. But
(34:17):
you're right, burg high pressure coming in ten forty Hector pascals.
It's going to park itself right smack bang over the
top of the South Island as we go into the weekend,
which means it's fairly cold and fairly dry weather today.
We'll linger especially in North Canterbury, before clearing the South
Island and then get a big high rolls on in
for most of New Zealand. But the caveat is that
(34:40):
if you live in Hawks Bay, maybe parts of wided
Upper Gisbon tight after the areas that showery southerly and
the clouds could linger on a bit longer for you,
if it's any consolation. Australia's East Coast is in the
same kind of cloudy cold setup, but high pressure is
coming in for the weekend. Well.
Speaker 2 (34:56):
The one industry that will be very thankful for the
sweather at the moment is the industry. I was some
coins down over the weekend Phil Duncan and the remarkables
were almost totally bereft of snow.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
Yeah, there's been a lot of snow falling in Australia
this year, very very wintry weather in the southeast of Australia.
In fact, here's a temperature this morning. It was minus
nine at Threadbow, the ski village, and at the same
latitude on the west coast in Perth and Granted Perths
at sea level it was twenty degrees so there was
basically a thirty degree temperature difference on the same latitude
(35:30):
across Australia this morning. Very cold air stuck in the
southeast of Ozzie, giving them snow event after snow event.
In New Zealand, we've been on the warmer edge of
that most of the winter. Now we've had cold air flows.
But even the cold that's coming through today is not
what I would call brutally cold. I mean, it's tough
for newborn lambs. That don't get me wrong. It's a
real problem in fact, especially around places like Hawks Bay
(35:52):
for the next couple of days. But the temperatures are
not that brutal in New Zealand this winter that've been gown.
It's been colder than average this winter, but I don't
think it's been extreme. We hadn't been seeing lots of
minus tens or fifteens, for example.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
Phil Duncan. Thanks for your time. It was worth waiting
a day for that. That was quite brilliant.
Speaker 3 (36:10):
Here you go, Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
Thank you, fellow. It is six away from one. You're
with the Country brought to you by Brent. We're going
to wrap it with some of your feedback. Stephen Fleming
was hands down the highlight of your show. Jamie, Yeah,
I agree with you. Text on that one brilliant, wasn't he?
Unfortunately that value creation was quickly destroyed by that. I
can't read that, but another text coming in Jacinda couldn't
(36:37):
answer a question at a pub quiz let alone. The
COVID inquiry Grant Robertson speculated five billion on bonds and
lost more of your feedback on Stephen Fleming and Damian
O'Connor after the break here on the Country, lag wrapping
(37:02):
the Country with some of your feedback and thanks for
texting in on five double nine New Zealand pork highlighting
the labeling when looking for it in the supermarket might
help unless the supermarket where I shop is not selling
New Zealand pork. That's from Pete and Pete that the
labeling's appalling. It says stuff like New Zealand processed pork.
(37:25):
It doesn't actually mean that it's grown here in New Zealand.
Talking about productivity, one text of writs, don't forget about
five more sick days and marta Riki day. There's your
three percent decline in productivity. Yeah, I'm with you on
the extra sick days. Martaiki. I think's fine. As a
(37:46):
public holiday, it has national significance. What significance does Queen's
birthday now King's birthday have for us? In my mind
we should have just switt simply swapped Outan's birthday, King's
birthday for Marta Rick. We don't need more public holidays.
They cost us a fortune as a nation. Anyhow, that's
(38:10):
us done and dusted. Tomorrow, We've got another treat in
store for you. Michael every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist
buckle In. He's on the show tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deere machinery,
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