September 15, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Jason Herrick, Phil Duncan, and Hunter McGregor.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie mckue. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Do you remember? Good afternoon, New Zealand. Welcome to the Country.
(00:33):
I'm Jamie MacKaye. The show is brought to you by
brand Love, Earth, Wind and Fire. Not so keen on
September can be a cruel mistress of a mistress of
a month. We're going to sort out the forecast for
the rest of this key farming month. A bit later
in the hour with Phil Duncan, don't shoot the messenger.
(00:54):
I've got a call in to Simon Beamish, well known
Hawks Bay farmer. Of course, the Beamish family won the
twenty twenty four East Coast Balance Farm Environment Awards. Of
course Simon and his wife Jossy are the mom and
dad of Geordie Beamish. What good. This is one of
my favorite sporting stories of the year. I don't know
(01:15):
where Simon is. He's probably in Tokyo. We'll try and
track him down if we can. The interesting thing is
the Moroccan al Bakali, who won the event at the
last two Olympics and last two World Championships. Was gunned
down by Beamish, fascinating Finnish. He didn't even know Jordie's name.
He's admitted he didn't know his name. He said, I
(01:36):
congratulated the athlete from New Zealand. What a great finish.
What a shame that Sky TV or someone hasn't bothered
to broadcast the World Athletics Champs from Tokyo. But anyhow,
Cameron Bagriy's going to fill the beach, the beach, the breach.
We're going to talk GDP, GDT and OCR Jason Herrick,
(01:59):
he is the president of Federated Farmers in Southland. It
seems that dissatisfaction with regional councils is not just limited
to Canterbury. Remember we spoke to our former Mid Canterbury
president of Federated Farmers, David Clark on yesterday show Hunter
mcgregors in China. He's a bit pessimistic about their economy
and as I said Phil Duncan on September and even
(02:22):
if I get time or I can squeeze him, and
I'd love to talk to Mike McIntyre from Jardin about
tonight's GDT auction. The last one took a bit of
a tumble the GDT pulse. That's the auction they have
between the GDT auctions and the futures market. Are picking
(02:42):
another drop. Follow that one closely, but up next it's
Cameron Bagray as we hit mid September. He's an independent economist.
(03:08):
His name is Cameron Bagriy. It's a big week for
the economy GDT auction tonight, GDP numbers on Thursday. We'll
start with GDP Cameron. The banks are picking a contraction
of somewhere between zero point three and zero point five
percent if we get another quarter September quarter. We're currently
(03:30):
and also in retraction. We're in recession.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
You're the economy's yeah, done a dated long. We've We've
stopped for a cup of tea, so I've better growth
into twenty twenty four. Start of two and twenty five.
A lot of their growth has been coming out of
the rural communities. The housing market has sort of failed
to kick on. There's been a few structural issues in
regard to cost of energy prices that are noted for
(03:55):
various parts of the manufacturing sector around. The recovery is
still coming to get it's just taken a little bit
of time at the moment, we're relied upon the farmers,
and the farming set to a lie and cannot carry
the entire economy. You need other sectors to step up
to the plate. That's coming. It's just coming with a
bit of a lad. Seventy five percent of mortgages who
(04:16):
can refinance in the coming twelve months, So there's still
a little bit of an Egyptian to ripping. Jamie. Will
still be structural, as you say out there, where you
look at infrastructure, we look at the doubling and gas prices.
Where you look at infrastructure, cyclical support, elia interest rates,
the strong, commodity prices lower and Museuman dollar, and we's
(04:37):
going to head to head with some pretty big structural
problems you've still got across this economy.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
I put it to you that we've hit the bottom
and very very slowly on our way back up. Do
you agree with that?
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Yeah, we are. And I guess why I viewed at
the moment as a I'm after quality as opposed to quantity,
and what we're seeing at the moment is that there's
not too much quantity out the end. But that is
quality because it's an earning lead recovery coming from the
ex books set, coming from the weal can pizza. It's
got a bit of backbite. The last thing I think
(05:09):
we need or wants the ork and property market lead
this economic recovery, because there'll be a born spin sole
recovery and borron spend. There's a short term sort of thing.
It's not a long term thing of substance.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
I'm going to come back to the GDT having covered
the GDP, but I want to talk about the ocr
It's acronym day to day on the country, Cameron Bagriy.
We all agree, or everyone seems to agree, it's going
to go to two point five percent. The question I'm
going to ask you now is when do we get there?
Do we get there in November of this year or
do we get there in February of next year? And
(05:42):
why not? Why wouldn't the Reserve Bank go fifty basis
points next time to the batter's.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
Box if he goes fifth year him? Do I think
of a little bit of panic out there? And the
Reserving's job at the moment is pretty complicated, because what
we've got is if you look the economy alone, how
it's performing, you'll be betting up and giving it a
bit of a nutch at least once or twice. Of course,
(06:09):
the reserve being's gone an inflation target. And what we
know out there at the moment is that headline inflation
is moving up now thank god, core inflation is hitting south.
But there's a little bit of stickiness coming through with
the inflation. Is the reserve benk This needs to be
a little bit mindful of at the moment. So yes,
are you're going to go infest rates moving into what's
(06:29):
called the military zone. That's when the reserve bank starts
pushed on the accelerator. In the past months, I've only
taken the foot off the break, so they're now starting
to push. Going to push on the acceleraer. That's going
to help the kind of out. But let's not forget
that when you're pushing the accelerator, you start to push
inflation up on the other side. And I guess your
people have learned the hard way of the past a
few years is that inflation is pretty ruthless. That Sarah's
(06:52):
the thief to take money out of your pockets.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
Okay, GDP tech Tech now GDT, as I said, acronym,
go here on the country, my man at Jordon Mike
McIntire specializes in this is that the futures market is
picking another drop after a reasonably substantial drop it at
the last auction. Is this just classic supply and demand economics.
(07:15):
The price has got to such a level that global
production is ramping up to meet that price.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
Yeah, I think so. The market does pretty well because
something if you look at commodity prices, you know, they go,
they come back down. Even if they come back down,
which they are coming back down, they're still sitting there
at pretty elevated levels. So face value, that's when you
combine it with the New Zealand dollar around sixty cents,
that's a fair bit of money in the term for
the farming sector. But yeah, we're talking awful about the
(07:45):
revenue line, Jamie. Yeah, we've got to keep an eye
on that costline because what we know over that sort
of nineteen twenty eighteen to twenty twenty three sort of period,
that cost line with SEBT that moved up an awful
long way, So the revenue line needed to live a
long way on the other side. Revenue coming down. We
just may need to see that that cost line it's
going to be payed for numbers of a couple of years,
(08:07):
and lower infrastrateture obviously is going to help.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
How much is the sugar hit of they lack talis
payout if indeed it happens, what is it three billion odd?
How is that going to affect the New Zealand economy?
Because I know that farmers, if they're sensible anyhow, and
most of them are pretty pragmatic, they're going to pay
down debts. Some of that debt relates to paying quite
a bit of money in the past for Fonterra shares,
(08:30):
but some of it will find its way into retail spending,
whether it's for on farm or personal.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Well you practice sales and anecdotally are starting to move up
a little bit. If the numbers three point two billion
dollar potential pay it four hundred and fifty billion dollar economy,
that's zero point seventy percent of GDP, So it's a
pretty big economic injection out there. Banks might want to
take a bit of a chunk of it, to be fair.
(09:00):
Heary debt has come down a long way in the
past decade. Dairy debt used to be up around forty
two to forty three billion dairy debts and now down
around thirty five thirty six billion off the top of
my head. Yes, balance to look them pretty good. I
suspect to the A fair bit of that money is
going to be used for en farm investment, and that's
a good thing. Hey.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
A wise man once said to me, Cameron, the best
form of investment is to repay debt.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
Well, return on equity versus return on debt. End of
the day's fundamental principle of finances that debt tends to
be cheaper than equity, you know, so if you can
use debt, wisely use it and the truck is to
give their return on the other side of the equation.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Cameron Bagrie, thanks as always for your time on the country.
Will legally await tonight's GDT option.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
All the best Jamming.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
Seventeen after twelve, Thank you, Cameron. Yeah, futures market GDT
pulse would indicate another drop in the dairy market. I
was in contact with my man Mike McIntyre this morning.
Let me see if I can find this text on
what the futures market's saying at the moment for the season.
(10:14):
We're just about to finish the twenty five season. Of course,
we find out that that payout amount this month or
later this month ten fifteen, twenty sixth season, that's the
one we're in now, twenty five, twenty six, nine to
eighty one and twenty seventh season twenty six, twenty seven,
nine thirty six. Some of your feedback. I'll come to
(10:36):
some of your feedback from yesterday's show about the box Kicks,
whether we should be passing urgent legislation through parliament to
ban it. Everyone's a rugby expert now, which is great.
We're passionate about our sport in this country. And just
on that subject, I'm trying to get a hold of
Simon Beamish from a well known Hawks Bay farming family.
(10:58):
He's the dad of of Jordie. If you haven't seen
that race, and you can't see it on SkyTV unfortunately,
even though you pay an arm and a leg for
your sports subscription, go to YouTube. Just find the channel
that's geo politically or whatever they call it allows you
to watch it and have a look at it. It's
(11:18):
fantastic the finish. Anyhow, we've got to call into Simon Beamish.
He's probably in Tokyo for only three hours behind us,
so maybe they're still celebrating in Tokyo. Up next, Jason Herrick.
We have been talking about dissatisfaction with regional councils. David
Clark on yesterday's show, former Mid Canterbury President of Federated Farmers,
(11:40):
he was none too pleased. They're not happy down in
Southland easy either before the end of their Hunter McGregor
in Shanghai, Phil Duncan on September and whether it will
calm the farm. So on yesterday's show you heard from
(12:10):
David Clark, former President of Federated Farmers for the Mid
Canterbury region, having to spend up to fifty thousand dollars
on consultants to get a consent just to carry on
farming the way he's been farming. And he did get
an A Grade environmental audit mark in twenty twenty four.
So where's the problem. Well, it seems like it's not
(12:33):
only limited to Mid Canterbury. Let's head down to Southland.
God's own farming province that the Federated Farmer's president down
there is Jason Herrick. And Jason, you've been jumping up
and down about farmers being blindsided by four thousand dollars
winter grazing charges when they're doing nothing wrong.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Yeah, Jamie, isn't it appalling right throughout the country regional
councils of misbehaving in the sense And to be honest,
there's absolutely no common sense coming from a regional council,
and especially in our situation where farms have been identified
from the flights for winter grazing having a possible breach,
and then they ensure a visit on farm and I mean,
(13:14):
I'm not going to go into the politics around the visits,
but there's a lot there that needs to be answered
in questions that need to be answered there. But as
they have a discussion with the farmer and the compliance officer,
it's all around misunderstanding of how the rules written and
so there's no real major breaches, Okay, it's just little
minor infractions, and they have a discussion, they have an
(13:35):
agreement and leave, you know pretty much that there's nothing wrong.
And then six weeks later they receive an efty bill
for cost of recovery in the mail, which I think
is really underhanded and called for, And it's just revenue
gathering at the end of the.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
Day, So you're saying you're being invoiced for a visit
where there are no breaches or problems, and you're saying,
quite rightly, that's incredibly frustrating. As I said to David yesterday, Look,
I'm not a huge fan of regional councils either. They
take a lot of my money every year for properties
I'm involved in. I'm not sure what I get back
in return. I'm a big fan of unitary authorities.
Speaker 4 (14:11):
Yeah, so my Jamie. And when you've got to look
at the regional council as a whole and what do
they achieve. Do they achieve environmental outcomes? Someone could argue no.
Do they achieve river management definitely not. Do they achieve
flood protection definitely not? You know, So to me, I
think that there are a waste of resources and another
(14:33):
mechanism for higher costs on our small businesses and farming
operations and people within the cities. And I'm with you,
I think they need to go. Also receiving extra phone
calls too about other issues that farmers are having. You know,
I've received some phone calls from farmers that have been
fined but not reporting nitrogen use in June and July. Well,
pretty common sense that we don't put nitrogen on in
(14:55):
June and July, so you know, why should they have
to write a number on the piece of paper. But
they received a seven hundred dollar fine for that. And
obviously winter grazing consents. The farmers that have done done
good by getting a winter grazing consent are now being
charged yearly compliance costs and having compliance monitoring every year
(15:15):
and being pulled up for stupid nonsensical stuff.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Have you had around the table with Environments Southland.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
I've tried talking with Environments Health and on many occasions,
and to be honest, you just get past from person
to person to person to person and that's talking to
the staff and the management of the divisions in there.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
But isn't the chairman of Environment Southland a farmer?
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (15:40):
Nicole Horra was definitely a farmer and as the chairman
and he comes back to me with the same story
all the time. He's happy with what the stuff have
come back with. And you know, I've spoken to other
counselors as well, and the other counselors are working hard
now to try and come to get to the bottom
of this, and to be honest, those counselors have some
questions over the.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Current situation have you talked to Shane Jones about it?
He's a bit like you, he's not a paid up
member of the Regional Council fan club.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
Yeah. No, I haven't had a direct conversation with Shane yet,
but i'd love to.
Speaker 5 (16:12):
You know, we've got to get back to.
Speaker 4 (16:15):
A more common sense approach, and you know, the Council
themselves absolutely leaned on the RMA in this instance. And
you want to read some of the threatening, you know,
letters that these farmers are receiving, you know, threatening them
with a maximum two year jail sentence in a three
hundred thousand dollar fine up to a six hundred thousand
dollars fine if you're a company, and that comes that's
(16:35):
accompanied with the with the invoice, you know, so it's
almost the Council saying, well, we're letting you off lightly
with a three thousand dollar bill when you could you know,
you could be facing a six hundred thousand dollars fine
all time.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
And the slammer. Hey, just finally, did you hear the
David Clark interview on yesterday's show?
Speaker 6 (16:51):
Yes?
Speaker 4 (16:52):
I did, Jamie, I did.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
Wasn't it bizarre that he's been advised that the easiest
way to gain consents for his sheep beef an arable
farming operation would be to draw withdraw his current application
and lodger consent application for conversion to dairying.
Speaker 4 (17:09):
It's just so dumb, isn't it. It is so dumb,
and you know, and that ranges from regional council to
regional council. So I know of a situation here in
south and just quickly Jamie that the farmer has been
applying for a resource consent to convert to dairy from
a dairy runoff for the last seven years I think
it is, and he's one hundreds of thousands of dollars
(17:31):
out of pocket just to get that consent, you know.
So here every regional council has got a lot to
dancer for.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
How's the spring going in Southam because this time a
year ago you guys were having a shaker.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
Oh yeah, last year was one out of the bag
and you know this year is much much better. Yeah.
The coast is getting slammed a wee bit at the
moment with wet or weather, so the weaver at wet
in places. But as a whole majority of Southend is
looking okay, and they've had a really good spring and
grass growth has been really good.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Okay, there we go. Jason Hererick, president of Federator Farmers
down in South and thanks for your time today on
the country. I know you've got some more windy and
wet stuff coming your way. Hopefully you can survive that
and get through to a grass growing October.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
Yeah, no, thank you, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
Twenty eight after twelve. Excuse me, you're at the country.
Thanks Jason.
Speaker 3 (18:22):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Phil duncan a wee bit later in the air on
what the rest of beholds. Don't shoot the messenger. I
don't know if it's that flash. To be perfectly honest,
No sign of a change in the weather pattern. Some
of your feedback gooda Jamie. We're fighting the gussy has
been obviously. Council spent twenty k in counting. That's from
Mark Wayne from tomorrow. Come back to your text. Wayne's
(18:47):
come up with the solution to get rid of the
box kicks, will make them less prevalent in Rugby. Just
got a text through from my old mate Shane mcmanway.
Gee does a lot for agriculture in this country now.
A lot of work going on behind the scenes regarding
the ministry of Education and the Ministry of Education, eric
(19:07):
A Stanford taking agg off are some of these school curriculums.
I think we might be getting closer to a more
sensible solution. Shane mcmanaway on the show tomorrow to talk
about that one. But up next Michelle's going to wander
in here, We're going to have a look at rural
news and sports. New's still got to call into Simon Beamish,
(19:29):
dad of Jordie. We'll try and track him down over
the next day or two as well. We might talk
about the peaches in Hawke's Bay and Watties. It just
seems a crying shame that you've got to rip out
the trees. But the trouble is we buy cheap imported
peaches rather than our own, and for a lot of
people it's a choice that they to be honest, they
(19:52):
just have to make more about that with Michelle before
the end of their Hunter McGregor and Shanghai and Phil
Duncan on September Welcome back to the country summer. Your feedback.
(20:16):
What are they planting in the peach orchard now? Profitable
kiwifruit or apples? Probably definitely not pine trees. Well, I
would hope not on that wonderful Hawks Bay horticultural land there.
Michelle's been doing lots of homework on the peach story.
Let's see what she comes up with.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
What the country's worldviews with coup Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn bower brand is it steel for dot
cot sid for your locals?
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Dogist And just before I do, Michelle and other texts
come and here from Southland, And to be honest, I
was slightly surprised with what Jason said. Bloody wet again
down here in Southland and we're not on the coast.
That's sort of what I'm hearing as well. But I
mean there's always someone worse off than yourself. Poor old
peach growers in Hawk's Bay. They're going to have to
(21:05):
rip the peach trees out.
Speaker 7 (21:07):
Well some of them. Yeah, I mean your text texting
before and ask what they're replacing them with. I did
read one as replacing with apples, So it'll be interesting
to find out. Maybe we shouldry and get hold of
an orchard is stup there and talk to them. But so
what is basically the reasoning behind it is that the
demand is less for the canned peaches for the wat
Is ones. And I think this is probably around costs
(21:27):
that you were saying, you know, I was just looking
up the cost of some of the What's peaches and
the Watties ones are around three fifty to three ninety
can the cheaper ones you can get for like ninety
nine cents. So it comes down to choice.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
I think, well, it's a bit like the pork, isn't it.
You know, like, what is it? Sixty percent of our
pork is imported and we all say we're going to
support locally grown pork, but for a lot of for
most of us, to be perfectly honest, when you get
into the supermarket, you haven't got a choice. You're looking
at the most cost effective option.
Speaker 7 (21:57):
Yeah, exactly. So basically what is a have? Yeah, basically
come out and see that that was a response to
the story starts to do with demand, and I think
we should probably maybe catch up with a grower, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
Yes, well, that's you can be tasked with that task.
We'll get one. We'll get someone on from maybe from
Summer Fruit New Zealand. I saw the new chief executive
of Summer Fruit New Zealand on the news last night.
Let's see if we can get them on our show tomorrow. Right,
what's happened to earth wind and Fire? I'm just going
to give you a moment of earth wind and fire, Michelle,
(22:29):
because I forgot to sports news off news, boss, bear
with me, okay. I found that here we go.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
Sport with a fco kiw to the bone since nineteen
oh four.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Not surprisingly, Jordy Beamish is leading sports news headlines at
twelve thirty getting knocked down but getting up again. I
should be playing Chumberwamba, shouldn't I for Jordy has imbued
Jordy Beamish with the confidence to secure the country's first
gold medal on the track at the Outdoor World Athletics Championships.
(23:21):
The twenty eight year old has won the three thousand
meters steeplechase in Tokyo after he fell with only a
lap to go in his heat. And it's worth going
back and looking at both of those races. They are
fantastic and we're going to try and get Simon Beamish
on the show. Also, it could be a Hawks Bays
show tomorrow and belief from New Zealand cricket boss Scott
(23:43):
Weenick that batter fin Allen can be a three format
regular for the black Caps after signing a casual New
Zealand contract. He can certainly hit a ball, no doubt
about that. Right. We are going to look at more
of your feedback. It's coming in thick and fast. What
we'll do is we'll I might actually go I might
(24:03):
actually go to Phil Duncan next, because he's waiting. We
missed him, yes that I don't want to. I want
to miss him today. So I'm going to go to
Phil Duncan and then hopefully Hunter McGregor and Shanghai before
the end.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Of the hour.
Speaker 2 (24:25):
Remember he's our resident Monday weather expert on the country.
We missed him yesterday. We're going to get him on
a Tuesday, Phil Duncan, I've got two words for you.
In fact, it's more than two, it's probably five or six.
September can be a cruel mistress.
Speaker 6 (24:45):
Yep, it sure can, and especially when it's a textbook September,
which we've got at the moment where you know, weather
is driven through these windy westerlies. We've got high pressure
north of New Zealand, storms south of US, and the
squash own a smack dang right over the country with
these westerly driven conditions, and really for the rest of September,
(25:06):
there is no end in sight. The weather pattern we're
in right now is the same one we've got in
two weeks time, where we see more of these highs
just to the north of the country. Some of them
might briefly come in over us, but overall, yeah, a
lot of weather being driven from south of Australia, south
of New Zealand, and that's why temperatures are down and
why we're seeing plenty of West coast rain coming up
(25:28):
over the next week and a half.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
We just want a mother nature to calm the farm,
but she ain't going to do it well. As we
head into October, will this kind of wet and windy
pattern continue. And that's obviously for the south and the west.
I know parts of the East Coast, for instance, are
getting very dry.
Speaker 6 (25:48):
What we need is high pressure to start moving southwards
at the moment as we transition from winter to summer
is a moment during spring where these highs tend to
go north of New Zealand, and that's why we get
all these westerlies going through. So usually as we go
through October, those highs start to come further back down
into New Zealand. That gives us more pauses. But in
(26:09):
saying that, you know, traditionally the spring equinox, which is
only a week or so away. Now, this is the
time of year from middle of September to the middle
of October. This is usually our most unsettled period of
weaver so this is not out of the ordinary. What
we need, though, is more injections of warmth. We can
cope with the wind, we can cope with cold changes,
but we need some warmer days. And for September we
(26:31):
are leaning colder. There are more polar blasts or polar
airflows coming in. That doesn't mean snow to sea level,
but what it means is you'll feel the colder air,
and so will the pasture, so will the soil, and
so we are seeing lower pasture growth nationwide. Really at
the moment, I'm hoping that we will start to see
some warmer days in the mix as we go into October,
(26:52):
and to not be totally bleak. We do have some
subtropical weather coming through, especially around the North Island over
the next five days, so it's not all cold and miserable,
but as far as the wind is concerned. This is
the one part of the weather that drives us all
a bit nutty sometimes. And we've certainly got plenty of
windy weather off and on over the next couple of
weeks ahead.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Okay, who's going to get the heavy rain the west coast.
Speaker 6 (27:16):
So you know, if you're a geography teacher, really the
weather at the moment is what you teach at school.
Where most of the rain is falling in our rainforest.
So we're seeing about four hundred, maybe more than that
millimeters of rain coming over the next two weeks for
Westland and for the Audland. We're see one hundred millimeters
spilling over into Southland over the next couple of weeks
(27:38):
and around parts of White Kato, White Tomo, Taranaki, Munawatu
somewhere between seventy and one hundred millimeters with lots of
showers producing that rain. Driest areas the very top of
the North Island and the eastern side of the country,
from the Bay of Islands to East Cape to wide
It up of Wellington even and right down to about
(27:59):
Dunedin's that's the area that's likely to be the driest,
although Duneedian's right on the edge of some of that
weather that will be coming out of the southern Ocean
around Southland.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
Yes, as I said, September can be a cruel mistress.
Hurry up and finish.
Speaker 6 (28:12):
Yeah, what is that song?
Speaker 2 (28:14):
Wake me up when September ends?
Speaker 3 (28:16):
Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 6 (28:16):
Yeah, might have to do that past the halfway mark.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
Well, Phil, I'm very quickly going to go out with
that song just because I can. Hey, thank you very
much for your time today. We'll be it one day late.
My fault, not yours, my.
Speaker 6 (28:31):
Pleasure mate, all goodig come.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
Yes, the magic of live radio. Who is this? Michelle?
Is it Green Day? Green Day? Thank you very much.
I was sitting on the button bar. We had some
September songs there. I was quickly able to pivot. As
they say, I can't believe you just use that to
tell you what, Michelle. If you look after the if
(29:03):
you get the process right, the outcome, we'll look after itself.
I'm starting to sound like an all black coach, aren't.
Speaker 7 (29:10):
I still like you going on a bit of a
journey today?
Speaker 2 (29:12):
Oh yes, no, we've banned that word and learnings. Now
here's some feedback on the weather. Yeah, I think Jason
Hericut Monte Jason's up in northern South and so he
gets the shelters from the sheltered from the Hokanui Hills
up there are wee bit. But here's Dean Dean. This
is a bit. This will be Dean ravage. I'm sure
it is. Former winner of the Zander McDonald Award. He said,
(29:36):
Saturday was worse than anything we had last year. And
it was a shocker down here. And then the All
Blacks loss, said Dean. And then the Stags lost, said Dean.
Terrible weekend all around.
Speaker 7 (29:49):
What's your Dean's Tuesday? You need to move on from
the sto.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
No, I can't. I got no golfing. I struggle enough
on a nice day with golf, no golfing. The All
Blacks lost, the Bags lost, and I had to do gardening.
Wake me up when September ends, Michelle. First World problems
up next. Hunt McGregor in Shanghai. He's our guy in
(30:26):
a very hot Shanghai, a Kiwi selling New Zealand venison
and red meat to the Chinese. His name is Hunter McGregor. Hunter.
Before I talk about how hot it's been this summer
in Shanghai, I want to talk about Indonesia. You sent
us through a really interesting little story about Indonesia aiming
to import one million dairy cows over five years. But
(30:49):
the stunning fact for a population of two hundred and
eighty four million people of only as it stands at
the moment, if your numbers are correct, got two hundred
and twenty thousand dairy cows.
Speaker 5 (31:00):
Well, yeah, good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, it is interesting. They're
going to put a over money and then try to
import some dairy cows and grow their own production and
within the country. So interested to see how that goes.
It will be a challenging environment for dairy cows Indonesia.
She's pretty hot and humid all year round. But you know,
the world's changing, and you know, we'll see how that
(31:20):
plays out in the future. You know that's going to
affect the demand out of Indonesia for New Zealand dairy products.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Absolutely. If they increase the size of their dairy herd
by five hundred percent, it will make a bit of
a difference. Mind you, They're trying to provide free meals
to eighty three million children and expectant mothers, so they
might need a few more than a million dairy cows
to do that. Talk to me. You talked about the
heat in Indonesia, how tough that would be on a
(31:46):
dairy cow. How tough is the heat and Shanghai on
a Roxburgh lad.
Speaker 5 (31:52):
Oh, it's been very tough.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
You know.
Speaker 5 (31:55):
August this year has been one of the hottest months ever,
you know, with records going back out about one hundred
and fifty two years, and they've had twenty seven days
of the temperature over thirty five degrees during the day.
They're twenty six of those in a row. Now, we
did get down to about thirty overnight. So you know,
(32:16):
July and August in Shanghai is not a good time
to visit. I wouldn't recommend it air conditioning. It's hot
and humid. It's not a dry heat. It's a very
hot heat. But you know, Shanghai is still reasonably warm.
Was sort of well above thirty most days at the moment.
Are starting to call off, hopefully we'll call off in
the next week or two, but the rest of China
(32:36):
is starting to cool down and your head into to autumn.
So you know, it is what it is, and we're
just just got to keep the air on running.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
I think at the moment, the heat means a lot
of restaurants and bars continue to struggle with my note
out they sell about a cold beer, but hot meat
maybe not. How's it affecting your business?
Speaker 5 (32:56):
Oh, that's pretty tough. You know, everyone's sort of, you know, operating.
What restaurants need to do now to get people in
the doors is do events and do different activities and
things like that. So you know, it is what it is,
and you're just got to play that. You're just going
to play what's in front of you, and people are
just so you know the business is seasonally down and
(33:18):
that that's the way it is, and hopefully gets a
bit cooler and people get out a bit more and
can enjoy some some balconies and gardens and things like that.
So let's see how every time.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
I chat to you, I use that terrible cliche and
I'll do it again green Shoots, because I reckon the
Chinese economy has to come right eventually. You're less optimistic
than I am, and you're there.
Speaker 5 (33:40):
Yeah, she's a tough market up here, Jamie. What I
see with your talking to everyone is that everyone's business
is down.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
It's tough.
Speaker 5 (33:48):
People aren't spending as much as they used to do,
and you know, for the foreseeable future, this is the
market that we're living in. And you know, it's just
just sort of the evolution of what's happening here. There's
a bit of pressure with regardless to tariffs and things
like that. And I'll give you one example of how
things have changed, you know, from the last couple of
years to now. I was out over the weekend with
(34:11):
my family picking grapes at a greape place where you
go and pick grapes and pick some vegetables and stuff.
And they've got a lovely lamb restaurant there, and you know,
they process small lambs. They're usually sort of probably ten
to fifteen kilos each, and we had a lamb's shoulder
which sort of fell apart and you didn't need a knife,
and it was beautiful. But it was talking to the
(34:34):
restaurant owner and he's saying, in the past they would
be processing sort of sixty to eighty lambs a day
through their restaurant. At the moment they're sort of struggling
to do ten. So that's how much that one restaurant
is down from the last two three years ago. And
you put that across the country and you know the
obviously places doing well, but most of them are struggling.
(34:55):
And this is the reality we live. And so everyone's
going to change their business and adjusting and continue to
move forward. Now with a big population, there's still opportunities here,
but it's harder than what it was in the past.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
Let's quickly finish on your national holiday. I think from
the first to the seventh of October each year. As
you say, it's a press of heat at the height
of summer, can get very cold in winter. I've been
lucky enough to be to China a couple of times
and the shoulders of the season spring and autumn and
I and it was beautiful. So that's the time of
(35:27):
the year when you guys take your holidays.
Speaker 5 (35:30):
Yeah, no, we're coming up to the first few days
of October each year, a fantastic time of the year.
We're otherwise and it's national holidays, So Chinese New Year
is a bit like Christmas, where everyone sort of goes
home and spends time with family. National holidays is when
everyone's out traveling, so you know it's going to be
busy the whole country. Beyond the move what sort of
(35:53):
happens in the with all the toll roads up here,
and there are many, they drop all the tolls during
the public hol days and everyone jumps on the road.
So the first couple of days, in the last couple
of days, the roads, the big roads you sort of
want to avoid. But rest of the time is quite good.
So looking forward to you know, the kids quite enjoy it.
(36:13):
They've had sort of July and August off and then
they have a ten yes seven days in the first
week of October off as well, so you know it's good.
It's going to be good fun and there'll be plenty
of activity around China at that time.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
Hey, Haunter McGregor, thanks for your time, really appreciate it.
We'll catch you again in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 4 (36:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (36:32):
Thanks.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
Jamie sticks away from one. Some great feedback coming in.
We'll come back to that. Here's one, Hi, Jamie. Jackson's
Orchard and Cromwell have already pre sold their entire future
peach crop director consumers via their website. An opportunity for
peach growers on Hawk's Bay, says Mark good Text. There
(36:52):
is an absolute ripper coming in to finish the show.
We'll take a break and come back with it. Okay,
wrapping the country. Some of your feedback coming in thick
and fast, Jamie, Absolute devastation in the Bay of Plenty.
The winds have wrecked havoc and avocado orchards, Trees blown over,
(37:15):
laden with fruit and tons of fruit on the ground.
Most growers were just weeks away from picking. Totally gutting
for us, all depressed grower from Baya Plenty. It really
feel for you, guys because the prices aren't that flash
at the moment either. But this one will cheer you up.
Good a Jamie as a Southland farmer dealing with an
apocalyptic storm, all blacks and stags getting thrashed. It was
(37:39):
a tough weekend, but when you said you had to
do gardening, it ripped my heart out. Feeling for you, brother,
that is a touching text. Oh, I'm going to get
it from the program director when I get home. Okay,
you enjoy the rest of your Tuesday. We'll catch you
back tomorrow with a special andnouncement about egg and schools.
Speaker 1 (38:06):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie Mague. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Deere machinery,
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie mckue. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Do you remember? Good afternoon, New Zealand. Welcome to the Country.
(00:33):
I'm Jamie MacKaye. The show is brought to you by
brand Love, Earth, Wind and Fire. Not so keen on
September can be a cruel mistress of a mistress of
a month. We're going to sort out the forecast for
the rest of this key farming month. A bit later
in the hour with Phil Duncan, don't shoot the messenger.
(00:54):
I've got a call in to Simon Beamish, well known
Hawks Bay farmer. Of course, the Beamish family won the
twenty twenty four East Coast Balance Farm Environment Awards. Of
course Simon and his wife Jossy are the mom and
dad of Geordie Beamish. What good. This is one of
my favorite sporting stories of the year. I don't know
(01:15):
where Simon is. He's probably in Tokyo. We'll try and
track him down if we can. The interesting thing is
the Moroccan al Bakali, who won the event at the
last two Olympics and last two World Championships. Was gunned
down by Beamish, fascinating Finnish. He didn't even know Jordie's name.
He's admitted he didn't know his name. He said, I
(01:36):
congratulated the athlete from New Zealand. What a great finish.
What a shame that Sky TV or someone hasn't bothered
to broadcast the World Athletics Champs from Tokyo. But anyhow,
Cameron Bagriy's going to fill the beach, the beach, the breach.
We're going to talk GDP, GDT and OCR Jason Herrick,
(01:59):
he is the president of Federated Farmers in Southland. It
seems that dissatisfaction with regional councils is not just limited
to Canterbury. Remember we spoke to our former Mid Canterbury
president of Federated Farmers, David Clark on yesterday show Hunter
mcgregors in China. He's a bit pessimistic about their economy
and as I said Phil Duncan on September and even
(02:22):
if I get time or I can squeeze him, and
I'd love to talk to Mike McIntyre from Jardin about
tonight's GDT auction. The last one took a bit of
a tumble the GDT pulse. That's the auction they have
between the GDT auctions and the futures market. Are picking
(02:42):
another drop. Follow that one closely, but up next it's
Cameron Bagray as we hit mid September. He's an independent economist.
(03:08):
His name is Cameron Bagriy. It's a big week for
the economy GDT auction tonight, GDP numbers on Thursday. We'll
start with GDP Cameron. The banks are picking a contraction
of somewhere between zero point three and zero point five
percent if we get another quarter September quarter. We're currently
(03:30):
and also in retraction. We're in recession.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
You're the economy's yeah, done a dated long. We've We've
stopped for a cup of tea, so I've better growth
into twenty twenty four. Start of two and twenty five.
A lot of their growth has been coming out of
the rural communities. The housing market has sort of failed
to kick on. There's been a few structural issues in
regard to cost of energy prices that are noted for
(03:55):
various parts of the manufacturing sector around. The recovery is
still coming to get it's just taken a little bit
of time at the moment, we're relied upon the farmers,
and the farming set to a lie and cannot carry
the entire economy. You need other sectors to step up
to the plate. That's coming. It's just coming with a
bit of a lad. Seventy five percent of mortgages who
(04:16):
can refinance in the coming twelve months, So there's still
a little bit of an Egyptian to ripping. Jamie. Will
still be structural, as you say out there, where you
look at infrastructure, we look at the doubling and gas prices.
Where you look at infrastructure, cyclical support, elia interest rates,
the strong, commodity prices lower and Museuman dollar, and we's
(04:37):
going to head to head with some pretty big structural
problems you've still got across this economy.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
I put it to you that we've hit the bottom
and very very slowly on our way back up. Do
you agree with that?
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Yeah, we are. And I guess why I viewed at
the moment as a I'm after quality as opposed to quantity,
and what we're seeing at the moment is that there's
not too much quantity out the end. But that is
quality because it's an earning lead recovery coming from the
ex books set, coming from the weal can pizza. It's
got a bit of backbite. The last thing I think
(05:09):
we need or wants the ork and property market lead
this economic recovery, because there'll be a born spin sole
recovery and borron spend. There's a short term sort of thing.
It's not a long term thing of substance.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
I'm going to come back to the GDT having covered
the GDP, but I want to talk about the ocr
It's acronym day to day on the country, Cameron Bagriy.
We all agree, or everyone seems to agree, it's going
to go to two point five percent. The question I'm
going to ask you now is when do we get there?
Do we get there in November of this year or
do we get there in February of next year? And
(05:42):
why not? Why wouldn't the Reserve Bank go fifty basis
points next time to the batter's.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
Box if he goes fifth year him? Do I think
of a little bit of panic out there? And the
Reserving's job at the moment is pretty complicated, because what
we've got is if you look the economy alone, how
it's performing, you'll be betting up and giving it a
bit of a nutch at least once or twice. Of course,
(06:09):
the reserve being's gone an inflation target. And what we
know out there at the moment is that headline inflation
is moving up now thank god, core inflation is hitting south.
But there's a little bit of stickiness coming through with
the inflation. Is the reserve benk This needs to be
a little bit mindful of at the moment. So yes,
are you're going to go infest rates moving into what's
(06:29):
called the military zone. That's when the reserve bank starts
pushed on the accelerator. In the past months, I've only
taken the foot off the break, so they're now starting
to push. Going to push on the acceleraer. That's going
to help the kind of out. But let's not forget
that when you're pushing the accelerator, you start to push
inflation up on the other side. And I guess your
people have learned the hard way of the past a
few years is that inflation is pretty ruthless. That Sarah's
(06:52):
the thief to take money out of your pockets.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
Okay, GDP tech Tech now GDT, as I said, acronym,
go here on the country, my man at Jordon Mike
McIntire specializes in this is that the futures market is
picking another drop after a reasonably substantial drop it at
the last auction. Is this just classic supply and demand economics.
(07:15):
The price has got to such a level that global
production is ramping up to meet that price.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
Yeah, I think so. The market does pretty well because
something if you look at commodity prices, you know, they go,
they come back down. Even if they come back down,
which they are coming back down, they're still sitting there
at pretty elevated levels. So face value, that's when you
combine it with the New Zealand dollar around sixty cents,
that's a fair bit of money in the term for
the farming sector. But yeah, we're talking awful about the
(07:45):
revenue line, Jamie. Yeah, we've got to keep an eye
on that costline because what we know over that sort
of nineteen twenty eighteen to twenty twenty three sort of period,
that cost line with SEBT that moved up an awful
long way, So the revenue line needed to live a
long way on the other side. Revenue coming down. We
just may need to see that that cost line it's
going to be payed for numbers of a couple of years,
(08:07):
and lower infrastrateture obviously is going to help.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
How much is the sugar hit of they lack talis
payout if indeed it happens, what is it three billion odd?
How is that going to affect the New Zealand economy?
Because I know that farmers, if they're sensible anyhow, and
most of them are pretty pragmatic, they're going to pay
down debts. Some of that debt relates to paying quite
a bit of money in the past for Fonterra shares,
(08:30):
but some of it will find its way into retail spending,
whether it's for on farm or personal.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Well you practice sales and anecdotally are starting to move up
a little bit. If the numbers three point two billion
dollar potential pay it four hundred and fifty billion dollar economy,
that's zero point seventy percent of GDP, So it's a
pretty big economic injection out there. Banks might want to
take a bit of a chunk of it, to be fair.
(09:00):
Heary debt has come down a long way in the
past decade. Dairy debt used to be up around forty
two to forty three billion dairy debts and now down
around thirty five thirty six billion off the top of
my head. Yes, balance to look them pretty good. I
suspect to the A fair bit of that money is
going to be used for en farm investment, and that's
a good thing. Hey.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
A wise man once said to me, Cameron, the best
form of investment is to repay debt.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
Well, return on equity versus return on debt. End of
the day's fundamental principle of finances that debt tends to
be cheaper than equity, you know, so if you can
use debt, wisely use it and the truck is to
give their return on the other side of the equation.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Cameron Bagrie, thanks as always for your time on the country.
Will legally await tonight's GDT option.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
All the best Jamming.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
Seventeen after twelve, Thank you, Cameron. Yeah, futures market GDT
pulse would indicate another drop in the dairy market. I
was in contact with my man Mike McIntyre this morning.
Let me see if I can find this text on
what the futures market's saying at the moment for the season.
(10:14):
We're just about to finish the twenty five season. Of course,
we find out that that payout amount this month or
later this month ten fifteen, twenty sixth season, that's the
one we're in now, twenty five, twenty six, nine to
eighty one and twenty seventh season twenty six, twenty seven,
nine thirty six. Some of your feedback. I'll come to
(10:36):
some of your feedback from yesterday's show about the box Kicks,
whether we should be passing urgent legislation through parliament to
ban it. Everyone's a rugby expert now, which is great.
We're passionate about our sport in this country. And just
on that subject, I'm trying to get a hold of
Simon Beamish from a well known Hawks Bay farming family.
(10:58):
He's the dad of of Jordie. If you haven't seen
that race, and you can't see it on SkyTV unfortunately,
even though you pay an arm and a leg for
your sports subscription, go to YouTube. Just find the channel
that's geo politically or whatever they call it allows you
to watch it and have a look at it. It's
(11:18):
fantastic the finish. Anyhow, we've got to call into Simon Beamish.
He's probably in Tokyo for only three hours behind us,
so maybe they're still celebrating in Tokyo. Up next, Jason Herrick.
We have been talking about dissatisfaction with regional councils. David
Clark on yesterday's show, former Mid Canterbury President of Federated Farmers,
(11:40):
he was none too pleased. They're not happy down in
Southland easy either before the end of their Hunter McGregor
in Shanghai, Phil Duncan on September and whether it will
calm the farm. So on yesterday's show you heard from
(12:10):
David Clark, former President of Federated Farmers for the Mid
Canterbury region, having to spend up to fifty thousand dollars
on consultants to get a consent just to carry on
farming the way he's been farming. And he did get
an A Grade environmental audit mark in twenty twenty four.
So where's the problem. Well, it seems like it's not
(12:33):
only limited to Mid Canterbury. Let's head down to Southland.
God's own farming province that the Federated Farmer's president down
there is Jason Herrick. And Jason, you've been jumping up
and down about farmers being blindsided by four thousand dollars
winter grazing charges when they're doing nothing wrong.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Yeah, Jamie, isn't it appalling right throughout the country regional
councils of misbehaving in the sense And to be honest,
there's absolutely no common sense coming from a regional council,
and especially in our situation where farms have been identified
from the flights for winter grazing having a possible breach,
and then they ensure a visit on farm and I mean,
(13:14):
I'm not going to go into the politics around the visits,
but there's a lot there that needs to be answered
in questions that need to be answered there. But as
they have a discussion with the farmer and the compliance officer,
it's all around misunderstanding of how the rules written and
so there's no real major breaches, Okay, it's just little
minor infractions, and they have a discussion, they have an
(13:35):
agreement and leave, you know pretty much that there's nothing wrong.
And then six weeks later they receive an efty bill
for cost of recovery in the mail, which I think
is really underhanded and called for, And it's just revenue
gathering at the end of the.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
Day, So you're saying you're being invoiced for a visit
where there are no breaches or problems, and you're saying,
quite rightly, that's incredibly frustrating. As I said to David yesterday, Look,
I'm not a huge fan of regional councils either. They
take a lot of my money every year for properties
I'm involved in. I'm not sure what I get back
in return. I'm a big fan of unitary authorities.
Speaker 4 (14:11):
Yeah, so my Jamie. And when you've got to look
at the regional council as a whole and what do
they achieve. Do they achieve environmental outcomes? Someone could argue no.
Do they achieve river management definitely not. Do they achieve
flood protection definitely not? You know, So to me, I
think that there are a waste of resources and another
(14:33):
mechanism for higher costs on our small businesses and farming
operations and people within the cities. And I'm with you,
I think they need to go. Also receiving extra phone
calls too about other issues that farmers are having. You know,
I've received some phone calls from farmers that have been
fined but not reporting nitrogen use in June and July. Well,
pretty common sense that we don't put nitrogen on in
(14:55):
June and July, so you know, why should they have
to write a number on the piece of paper. But
they received a seven hundred dollar fine for that. And
obviously winter grazing consents. The farmers that have done done
good by getting a winter grazing consent are now being
charged yearly compliance costs and having compliance monitoring every year
(15:15):
and being pulled up for stupid nonsensical stuff.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Have you had around the table with Environments Southland.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
I've tried talking with Environments Health and on many occasions,
and to be honest, you just get past from person
to person to person to person and that's talking to
the staff and the management of the divisions in there.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
But isn't the chairman of Environment Southland a farmer?
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (15:40):
Nicole Horra was definitely a farmer and as the chairman
and he comes back to me with the same story
all the time. He's happy with what the stuff have
come back with. And you know, I've spoken to other
counselors as well, and the other counselors are working hard
now to try and come to get to the bottom
of this, and to be honest, those counselors have some
questions over the.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Current situation have you talked to Shane Jones about it?
He's a bit like you, he's not a paid up
member of the Regional Council fan club.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
Yeah. No, I haven't had a direct conversation with Shane yet,
but i'd love to.
Speaker 5 (16:12):
You know, we've got to get back to.
Speaker 4 (16:15):
A more common sense approach, and you know, the Council
themselves absolutely leaned on the RMA in this instance. And
you want to read some of the threatening, you know,
letters that these farmers are receiving, you know, threatening them
with a maximum two year jail sentence in a three
hundred thousand dollar fine up to a six hundred thousand
dollars fine if you're a company, and that comes that's
(16:35):
accompanied with the with the invoice, you know, so it's
almost the Council saying, well, we're letting you off lightly
with a three thousand dollar bill when you could you know,
you could be facing a six hundred thousand dollars fine
all time.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
And the slammer. Hey, just finally, did you hear the
David Clark interview on yesterday's show?
Speaker 6 (16:51):
Yes?
Speaker 4 (16:52):
I did, Jamie, I did.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
Wasn't it bizarre that he's been advised that the easiest
way to gain consents for his sheep beef an arable
farming operation would be to draw withdraw his current application
and lodger consent application for conversion to dairying.
Speaker 4 (17:09):
It's just so dumb, isn't it. It is so dumb,
and you know, and that ranges from regional council to
regional council. So I know of a situation here in
south and just quickly Jamie that the farmer has been
applying for a resource consent to convert to dairy from
a dairy runoff for the last seven years I think
it is, and he's one hundreds of thousands of dollars
(17:31):
out of pocket just to get that consent, you know.
So here every regional council has got a lot to
dancer for.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
How's the spring going in Southam because this time a
year ago you guys were having a shaker.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
Oh yeah, last year was one out of the bag
and you know this year is much much better. Yeah.
The coast is getting slammed a wee bit at the
moment with wet or weather, so the weaver at wet
in places. But as a whole majority of Southend is
looking okay, and they've had a really good spring and
grass growth has been really good.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Okay, there we go. Jason Hererick, president of Federator Farmers
down in South and thanks for your time today on
the country. I know you've got some more windy and
wet stuff coming your way. Hopefully you can survive that
and get through to a grass growing October.
Speaker 4 (18:14):
Yeah, no, thank you, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
Twenty eight after twelve. Excuse me, you're at the country.
Thanks Jason.
Speaker 3 (18:22):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Phil duncan a wee bit later in the air on
what the rest of beholds. Don't shoot the messenger. I
don't know if it's that flash. To be perfectly honest,
No sign of a change in the weather pattern. Some
of your feedback gooda Jamie. We're fighting the gussy has
been obviously. Council spent twenty k in counting. That's from
Mark Wayne from tomorrow. Come back to your text. Wayne's
(18:47):
come up with the solution to get rid of the
box kicks, will make them less prevalent in Rugby. Just
got a text through from my old mate Shane mcmanway.
Gee does a lot for agriculture in this country now.
A lot of work going on behind the scenes regarding
the ministry of Education and the Ministry of Education, eric
(19:07):
A Stanford taking agg off are some of these school curriculums.
I think we might be getting closer to a more
sensible solution. Shane mcmanaway on the show tomorrow to talk
about that one. But up next Michelle's going to wander
in here, We're going to have a look at rural
news and sports. New's still got to call into Simon Beamish,
(19:29):
dad of Jordie. We'll try and track him down over
the next day or two as well. We might talk
about the peaches in Hawke's Bay and Watties. It just
seems a crying shame that you've got to rip out
the trees. But the trouble is we buy cheap imported
peaches rather than our own, and for a lot of
people it's a choice that they to be honest, they
(19:52):
just have to make more about that with Michelle before
the end of their Hunter McGregor and Shanghai and Phil
Duncan on September Welcome back to the country summer. Your feedback.
(20:16):
What are they planting in the peach orchard now? Profitable
kiwifruit or apples? Probably definitely not pine trees. Well, I
would hope not on that wonderful Hawks Bay horticultural land there.
Michelle's been doing lots of homework on the peach story.
Let's see what she comes up with.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
What the country's worldviews with coup Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn bower brand is it steel for dot
cot sid for your locals?
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Dogist And just before I do, Michelle and other texts
come and here from Southland, And to be honest, I
was slightly surprised with what Jason said. Bloody wet again
down here in Southland and we're not on the coast.
That's sort of what I'm hearing as well. But I
mean there's always someone worse off than yourself. Poor old
peach growers in Hawk's Bay. They're going to have to
(21:05):
rip the peach trees out.
Speaker 7 (21:07):
Well some of them. Yeah, I mean your text texting
before and ask what they're replacing them with. I did
read one as replacing with apples, So it'll be interesting
to find out. Maybe we shouldry and get hold of
an orchard is stup there and talk to them. But so
what is basically the reasoning behind it is that the
demand is less for the canned peaches for the wat
Is ones. And I think this is probably around costs
(21:27):
that you were saying, you know, I was just looking
up the cost of some of the What's peaches and
the Watties ones are around three fifty to three ninety
can the cheaper ones you can get for like ninety
nine cents. So it comes down to choice.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
I think, well, it's a bit like the pork, isn't it.
You know, like, what is it? Sixty percent of our
pork is imported and we all say we're going to
support locally grown pork, but for a lot of for
most of us, to be perfectly honest, when you get
into the supermarket, you haven't got a choice. You're looking
at the most cost effective option.
Speaker 7 (21:57):
Yeah, exactly. So basically what is a have? Yeah, basically
come out and see that that was a response to
the story starts to do with demand, and I think
we should probably maybe catch up with a grower, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
Yes, well, that's you can be tasked with that task.
We'll get one. We'll get someone on from maybe from
Summer Fruit New Zealand. I saw the new chief executive
of Summer Fruit New Zealand on the news last night.
Let's see if we can get them on our show tomorrow. Right,
what's happened to earth wind and Fire? I'm just going
to give you a moment of earth wind and fire, Michelle,
(22:29):
because I forgot to sports news off news, boss, bear
with me, okay. I found that here we go.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
Sport with a fco kiw to the bone since nineteen
oh four.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Not surprisingly, Jordy Beamish is leading sports news headlines at
twelve thirty getting knocked down but getting up again. I
should be playing Chumberwamba, shouldn't I for Jordy has imbued
Jordy Beamish with the confidence to secure the country's first
gold medal on the track at the Outdoor World Athletics Championships.
(23:21):
The twenty eight year old has won the three thousand
meters steeplechase in Tokyo after he fell with only a
lap to go in his heat. And it's worth going
back and looking at both of those races. They are
fantastic and we're going to try and get Simon Beamish
on the show. Also, it could be a Hawks Bays
show tomorrow and belief from New Zealand cricket boss Scott
(23:43):
Weenick that batter fin Allen can be a three format
regular for the black Caps after signing a casual New
Zealand contract. He can certainly hit a ball, no doubt
about that. Right. We are going to look at more
of your feedback. It's coming in thick and fast. What
we'll do is we'll I might actually go I might
(24:03):
actually go to Phil Duncan next, because he's waiting. We
missed him, yes that I don't want to. I want
to miss him today. So I'm going to go to
Phil Duncan and then hopefully Hunter McGregor and Shanghai before
the end.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Of the hour.
Speaker 2 (24:25):
Remember he's our resident Monday weather expert on the country.
We missed him yesterday. We're going to get him on
a Tuesday, Phil Duncan, I've got two words for you.
In fact, it's more than two, it's probably five or six.
September can be a cruel mistress.
Speaker 6 (24:45):
Yep, it sure can, and especially when it's a textbook September,
which we've got at the moment where you know, weather
is driven through these windy westerlies. We've got high pressure
north of New Zealand, storms south of US, and the
squash own a smack dang right over the country with
these westerly driven conditions, and really for the rest of September,
(25:06):
there is no end in sight. The weather pattern we're
in right now is the same one we've got in
two weeks time, where we see more of these highs
just to the north of the country. Some of them
might briefly come in over us, but overall, yeah, a
lot of weather being driven from south of Australia, south
of New Zealand, and that's why temperatures are down and
why we're seeing plenty of West coast rain coming up
(25:28):
over the next week and a half.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
We just want a mother nature to calm the farm,
but she ain't going to do it well. As we
head into October, will this kind of wet and windy
pattern continue. And that's obviously for the south and the west.
I know parts of the East Coast, for instance, are
getting very dry.
Speaker 6 (25:48):
What we need is high pressure to start moving southwards
at the moment as we transition from winter to summer
is a moment during spring where these highs tend to
go north of New Zealand, and that's why we get
all these westerlies going through. So usually as we go
through October, those highs start to come further back down
into New Zealand. That gives us more pauses. But in
(26:09):
saying that, you know, traditionally the spring equinox, which is
only a week or so away. Now, this is the
time of year from middle of September to the middle
of October. This is usually our most unsettled period of
weaver so this is not out of the ordinary. What
we need, though, is more injections of warmth. We can
cope with the wind, we can cope with cold changes,
but we need some warmer days. And for September we
(26:31):
are leaning colder. There are more polar blasts or polar
airflows coming in. That doesn't mean snow to sea level,
but what it means is you'll feel the colder air,
and so will the pasture, so will the soil, and
so we are seeing lower pasture growth nationwide. Really at
the moment, I'm hoping that we will start to see
some warmer days in the mix as we go into October,
(26:52):
and to not be totally bleak. We do have some
subtropical weather coming through, especially around the North Island over
the next five days, so it's not all cold and miserable,
but as far as the wind is concerned. This is
the one part of the weather that drives us all
a bit nutty sometimes. And we've certainly got plenty of
windy weather off and on over the next couple of
weeks ahead.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Okay, who's going to get the heavy rain the west coast.
Speaker 6 (27:16):
So you know, if you're a geography teacher, really the
weather at the moment is what you teach at school.
Where most of the rain is falling in our rainforest.
So we're seeing about four hundred, maybe more than that
millimeters of rain coming over the next two weeks for
Westland and for the Audland. We're see one hundred millimeters
spilling over into Southland over the next couple of weeks
(27:38):
and around parts of White Kato, White Tomo, Taranaki, Munawatu
somewhere between seventy and one hundred millimeters with lots of
showers producing that rain. Driest areas the very top of
the North Island and the eastern side of the country,
from the Bay of Islands to East Cape to wide
It up of Wellington even and right down to about
(27:59):
Dunedin's that's the area that's likely to be the driest,
although Duneedian's right on the edge of some of that
weather that will be coming out of the southern Ocean
around Southland.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
Yes, as I said, September can be a cruel mistress.
Hurry up and finish.
Speaker 6 (28:12):
Yeah, what is that song?
Speaker 2 (28:14):
Wake me up when September ends?
Speaker 3 (28:16):
Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 6 (28:16):
Yeah, might have to do that past the halfway mark.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
Well, Phil, I'm very quickly going to go out with
that song just because I can. Hey, thank you very
much for your time today. We'll be it one day late.
My fault, not yours, my.
Speaker 6 (28:31):
Pleasure mate, all goodig come.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
Yes, the magic of live radio. Who is this? Michelle?
Is it Green Day? Green Day? Thank you very much.
I was sitting on the button bar. We had some
September songs there. I was quickly able to pivot. As
they say, I can't believe you just use that to
tell you what, Michelle. If you look after the if
(29:03):
you get the process right, the outcome, we'll look after itself.
I'm starting to sound like an all black coach, aren't.
Speaker 7 (29:10):
I still like you going on a bit of a
journey today?
Speaker 2 (29:12):
Oh yes, no, we've banned that word and learnings. Now
here's some feedback on the weather. Yeah, I think Jason
Hericut Monte Jason's up in northern South and so he
gets the shelters from the sheltered from the Hokanui Hills
up there are wee bit. But here's Dean Dean. This
is a bit. This will be Dean ravage. I'm sure
it is. Former winner of the Zander McDonald Award. He said,
(29:36):
Saturday was worse than anything we had last year. And
it was a shocker down here. And then the All
Blacks loss, said Dean. And then the Stags lost, said Dean.
Terrible weekend all around.
Speaker 7 (29:49):
What's your Dean's Tuesday? You need to move on from
the sto.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
No, I can't. I got no golfing. I struggle enough
on a nice day with golf, no golfing. The All
Blacks lost, the Bags lost, and I had to do gardening.
Wake me up when September ends, Michelle. First World problems
up next. Hunt McGregor in Shanghai. He's our guy in
(30:26):
a very hot Shanghai, a Kiwi selling New Zealand venison
and red meat to the Chinese. His name is Hunter McGregor. Hunter.
Before I talk about how hot it's been this summer
in Shanghai, I want to talk about Indonesia. You sent
us through a really interesting little story about Indonesia aiming
to import one million dairy cows over five years. But
(30:49):
the stunning fact for a population of two hundred and
eighty four million people of only as it stands at
the moment, if your numbers are correct, got two hundred
and twenty thousand dairy cows.
Speaker 5 (31:00):
Well, yeah, good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, it is interesting. They're
going to put a over money and then try to
import some dairy cows and grow their own production and
within the country. So interested to see how that goes.
It will be a challenging environment for dairy cows Indonesia.
She's pretty hot and humid all year round. But you know,
the world's changing, and you know, we'll see how that
(31:20):
plays out in the future. You know that's going to
affect the demand out of Indonesia for New Zealand dairy products.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Absolutely. If they increase the size of their dairy herd
by five hundred percent, it will make a bit of
a difference. Mind you, They're trying to provide free meals
to eighty three million children and expectant mothers, so they
might need a few more than a million dairy cows
to do that. Talk to me. You talked about the
heat in Indonesia, how tough that would be on a
(31:46):
dairy cow. How tough is the heat and Shanghai on
a Roxburgh lad.
Speaker 5 (31:52):
Oh, it's been very tough.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
You know.
Speaker 5 (31:55):
August this year has been one of the hottest months ever,
you know, with records going back out about one hundred
and fifty two years, and they've had twenty seven days
of the temperature over thirty five degrees during the day.
They're twenty six of those in a row. Now, we
did get down to about thirty overnight. So you know,
(32:16):
July and August in Shanghai is not a good time
to visit. I wouldn't recommend it air conditioning. It's hot
and humid. It's not a dry heat. It's a very
hot heat. But you know, Shanghai is still reasonably warm.
Was sort of well above thirty most days at the moment.
Are starting to call off, hopefully we'll call off in
the next week or two, but the rest of China
(32:36):
is starting to cool down and your head into to autumn.
So you know, it is what it is, and we're
just just got to keep the air on running.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
I think at the moment, the heat means a lot
of restaurants and bars continue to struggle with my note
out they sell about a cold beer, but hot meat
maybe not. How's it affecting your business?
Speaker 5 (32:56):
Oh, that's pretty tough. You know, everyone's sort of, you know, operating.
What restaurants need to do now to get people in
the doors is do events and do different activities and
things like that. So you know, it is what it is,
and you're just got to play that. You're just going
to play what's in front of you, and people are
just so you know the business is seasonally down and
(33:18):
that that's the way it is, and hopefully gets a
bit cooler and people get out a bit more and
can enjoy some some balconies and gardens and things like that.
So let's see how every time.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
I chat to you, I use that terrible cliche and
I'll do it again green Shoots, because I reckon the
Chinese economy has to come right eventually. You're less optimistic
than I am, and you're there.
Speaker 5 (33:40):
Yeah, she's a tough market up here, Jamie. What I
see with your talking to everyone is that everyone's business
is down.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
It's tough.
Speaker 5 (33:48):
People aren't spending as much as they used to do,
and you know, for the foreseeable future, this is the
market that we're living in. And you know, it's just
just sort of the evolution of what's happening here. There's
a bit of pressure with regardless to tariffs and things
like that. And I'll give you one example of how
things have changed, you know, from the last couple of
years to now. I was out over the weekend with
(34:11):
my family picking grapes at a greape place where you
go and pick grapes and pick some vegetables and stuff.
And they've got a lovely lamb restaurant there, and you know,
they process small lambs. They're usually sort of probably ten
to fifteen kilos each, and we had a lamb's shoulder
which sort of fell apart and you didn't need a knife,
and it was beautiful. But it was talking to the
(34:34):
restaurant owner and he's saying, in the past they would
be processing sort of sixty to eighty lambs a day
through their restaurant. At the moment they're sort of struggling
to do ten. So that's how much that one restaurant
is down from the last two three years ago. And
you put that across the country and you know the
obviously places doing well, but most of them are struggling.
(34:55):
And this is the reality we live. And so everyone's
going to change their business and adjusting and continue to
move forward. Now with a big population, there's still opportunities here,
but it's harder than what it was in the past.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
Let's quickly finish on your national holiday. I think from
the first to the seventh of October each year. As
you say, it's a press of heat at the height
of summer, can get very cold in winter. I've been
lucky enough to be to China a couple of times
and the shoulders of the season spring and autumn and
I and it was beautiful. So that's the time of
(35:27):
the year when you guys take your holidays.
Speaker 5 (35:30):
Yeah, no, we're coming up to the first few days
of October each year, a fantastic time of the year.
We're otherwise and it's national holidays, So Chinese New Year
is a bit like Christmas, where everyone sort of goes
home and spends time with family. National holidays is when
everyone's out traveling, so you know it's going to be
busy the whole country. Beyond the move what sort of
(35:53):
happens in the with all the toll roads up here,
and there are many, they drop all the tolls during
the public hol days and everyone jumps on the road.
So the first couple of days, in the last couple
of days, the roads, the big roads you sort of
want to avoid. But rest of the time is quite good.
So looking forward to you know, the kids quite enjoy it.
(36:13):
They've had sort of July and August off and then
they have a ten yes seven days in the first
week of October off as well, so you know it's good.
It's going to be good fun and there'll be plenty
of activity around China at that time.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
Hey, Haunter McGregor, thanks for your time, really appreciate it.
We'll catch you again in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 4 (36:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (36:32):
Thanks.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
Jamie sticks away from one. Some great feedback coming in.
We'll come back to that. Here's one, Hi, Jamie. Jackson's
Orchard and Cromwell have already pre sold their entire future
peach crop director consumers via their website. An opportunity for
peach growers on Hawk's Bay, says Mark good Text. There
(36:52):
is an absolute ripper coming in to finish the show.
We'll take a break and come back with it. Okay,
wrapping the country. Some of your feedback coming in thick
and fast, Jamie, Absolute devastation in the Bay of Plenty.
The winds have wrecked havoc and avocado orchards, Trees blown over,
(37:15):
laden with fruit and tons of fruit on the ground.
Most growers were just weeks away from picking. Totally gutting
for us, all depressed grower from Baya Plenty. It really
feel for you, guys because the prices aren't that flash
at the moment either. But this one will cheer you up.
Good a Jamie as a Southland farmer dealing with an
apocalyptic storm, all blacks and stags getting thrashed. It was
(37:39):
a tough weekend, but when you said you had to
do gardening, it ripped my heart out. Feeling for you, brother,
that is a touching text. Oh, I'm going to get
it from the program director when I get home. Okay,
you enjoy the rest of your Tuesday. We'll catch you
back tomorrow with a special andnouncement about egg and schools.
Speaker 1 (38:06):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie Mague. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Deere machinery,
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