The Country 19/09/25: Chris Brandolino talks to Jamie Mackay

Earth Sciences NZ weather guy on the most tempestuous month of them all - September!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
But we've got to kick it off with Chris brand
Dealino from Newa on Biston duned in these days, Chris
hasn't been a great September down here. It's worse the
further south you get, and then if you go a
bit north of here, it's getting away bit dry and
everyone's looking for a weey bit of big yellow and
some grass growth. What do you got for the farmers.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Well, we have more rain and wind. We are expecting
a really active weekend, especially Jamie the second half of
the weekend, so that would be basically late Saturday night
into Sunday in particular, and that'll be for the South Island,
and that'll come in the form of a very strong wind.
We could see damaging wing gus, particularly about the Canterbury
high Country and also over the higher elevations and exposed

(00:43):
areas of Atago where in South Pland where we have
some elevation or bit of funneling. So those would be
areas that we'll see some very heavy rain. In terms
of the a very heavy wind, I beg your pardon.
In terms of the rain, however, the heaviest rain over
the weekend will be along the west of the South
Island will be to front, will actually be an atmosphere
river of moisture in the sky that'll be associated with

(01:05):
the front, and that'll be the fuel for heavy rain
that'll move north. We're gonna have to watch the top
of the South Island. That is one area that we'll
see heavy rain on Sunday. That rain band should move
north into the Cook Straight maybe lower North Island, probably
Monday morning and for the day on Monday, but there
are pretty good odds Jamie, that rain band may shift
back south over the top of the South Island for

(01:27):
say later Monday to Tuesday, and if that happens, that
could be a setup for some heavy rainfall and potentially
something that may cause flooding. So nothing to be overly
alarmed about. But it is Friday, and if things were
to go downhill would be in a few days from now,
so it is very much worth staying top of the
forecast to see how trying to look. But that's on
the west side, Jamie. On the eastern side, that northwest

(01:49):
one is gonna be a fern wind, so we'll see
temperatures in the lower twenties on Sunday and in eastern
Canterbury Monday and Tuesday for Hawks Bay could be easily
in the low twenties. We had twenty six point one
in Rickerton. I think it was Wednesday of this week.
Because of those fer and winds, so eastern side mostly
dry with much warmer temperatures for the next few days,
certainly Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

Speaker 1 (02:08):
Well mother night shawld cool her heels. Once we get
into October.

Speaker 2 (02:13):
Eventually, what happen? I think, what's going on? We have
Londina right and generally, you know, people are thinking, well,
what the heck, Chris, We you know, we usually get
east or northeast winds with Londinia, and we do. But
we talked about this certainly in our seasonal climbent outlook
we issued back in September first that September would be
a month of westerly winds and that's lived up. And
what's happening? I think, what's part of the equation if

(02:33):
I can steal but another it's fifteen thirty seconds here, Jamie,
is that there's been some unusual things happening above the
south Pole top of the atmosphere, sudn stratospheric warming, and
that may be contributing to weather patterns that are I
guess enhancing westerly winds. So as we move into October,
we are expecting this pivot, this transition from what we

(02:56):
have seen and what we will see through the rest
of September. I e west that should give away to
more easterly winds, more settled weather. Look, I'm not saying
what'll happen October first or second. We are thinking that
will happen toward the end of week one, start of
week two. So it looked like this would happen toward
the end of September, if I'm being honest, a couple
of weeks ago. It looks like one of those cases
where it's delayed, not denied. So more settled weather, drier weather,

(03:20):
warmer conditions that seems to be more likely as we
get toward the end of week one, in week two
of October and beyond. To hear the music, So that
means my time is up.