February 3, 2026 • 21 mins
To understand where you’re headed, sometimes you need to look back. This year marks 75 years of Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s Sheep and Beef Survey — 75 years of data, insights, and trend-spotting that help farmers make informed decisions on farm.
In a special-edition podcast, brought to you by Beef + Lamb New Zealand and powered by The Country, Hamish McKay speaks with Beef + Lamb New Zealand General Manager of Insights, Julian Ashby.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Exploring ideas and innovation shaping the future of farming with
Beef and Lamb New Zealand powered by the Country.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome in to the Beef and Lamb podcast series. I'm
Hamish Macca. I thank you very much for your company.
This is the first for twenty twenty six, brought to
you by the Country. Great heavy company. Now this episode
marks the seventy fifth anniversary of the Beef and Lamb
New Zealand Sheep and Beef Farm Survey. That's a fairly
(00:36):
good sort of record of its seventy five years, so
look at this in some depth. We are joined as
you can on a podcast by the General Manager Insights,
Julian Ashby. Welcome along, Julian, Hi have us, thanks having me,
great to have your company here. Tell us what's your
role the general manager Insights? What is that and tail
(00:58):
and what's a sort of an average week look like
for Julian Ashby.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
Yeah, well it's incredibly diverse, as I'm sure you can imagine.
We in any given week are fighting fires on trade.
I think you had Kate on the show recently talking
about the China beef safeguards, so our data is feeding
into all of those trade discussions, things around tariffs. We
are incredibly lucky to be able to project out to
the future, so we're doing some strategy workout to twenty
(01:22):
thirty five and how do we ensure that she can
be farmers remain profitable. We're looking into land use change
in any given week, around what's happening with carbon forestry.
We're just trying to use our survey data, which we'll
talk about further in a minute, to just see how
do we help farmers become more productive, more profitable. So, yeah,
any given week can be incredibly diverse.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
In never a dull moment, and of course this is
a time of profitability on the land, so these are
good times. But it is important as ever, I guess,
to take advantage of the information that we have now
the survey we talk about the seventy fifth anniversary of
the Beef and Land New Zealand Sheep and be Farm Survey.
(02:02):
Why is this data set so important for the sector?
Speaker 3 (02:08):
Yeah, I mean data and surveys can stand a little
bit dry at first, but this isn't really you know,
this is not just a spreadsheet. It's a long running
record of how real farm businesses make decisions under uncertainty.
We're talking you know, actual farm businesses here, not just modeling.
So when people hear seventy five years worth of data,
they often thinking this is just numbers or averages or
you know, the typical farm. But this is actually capturing
(02:30):
seventy five years worth of judgment as farmers responding to
whether price of policy, technology, or social expectations of the time.
So it's a super unique data set. I think Kate
came on the show recently saying it was the only
one of its kind in the world, so we're pretty
proud of that. It's a statistically robust sample, so it's
nationally representative, represents the nine thy five hundred odd commercial
(02:50):
sheet and beef farms we have, and as I say,
it's not modeled, it's based on the actual farms. It's
not owned by processes, banks, regulators, It's owned by farmers
for farmers. So pretty proud of that. And I guess
a huge part of why it's sort of so important
is just it's got this extreme credibility that's been built
up over the years by the people behind it. So
we're exceptionally lucky. We've got staff who've been involved with
(03:12):
the survey for years. We've got Rob Davison who's been
with Beef and Land for fifty years. It's pretty incredible.
Another staff member forty years, in another thirty years. So
we've got deed farming knowledge, long tenure and like the
survey itself, you know, we've seen fads come and go,
We've lived through shocks, and we understand the value of
independency and consistency, and none of us would have exist,
(03:32):
I should at homes without the survey. Farmers themselves who
volunteered their time to the survey, so's super grateful to them.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Okay, so what about the young farmers or the medium
aged farmers. Where will they find the value in this
given that it's seventy five years of continuous data, which
can show I guess a lot that shorter data sets can.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
Yeah, that's right. I mean, you know, seventy five years
with the data just gets rid of the noise basically,
so you can really track proper trends. You can separate
structural change from temporary shocks, and you can see how
farmers are actually responding, like what's sticking order fads, what's
compounding over time? You know, that perspective really matters because
it's a volatile sector. As we were just saying at
(04:15):
the start, it's good times at the moment, but two
years ago we had farm profit as low as that
had been since the nineteen eighty. So when you get
these long data sets, it starts to remind you that
the bad years can feel existential at the time, but
they're really the end of the story. And I guess
a practical example is just something like drought. You know,
in a single bad year you've got, you might feel
like the system's broken and your stocking rates are dropping
(04:35):
and your cash flows tightening, confidence is disappearing. Short data
sets can make that look like a permanent decline, But
if you're looking out over seventy five years, you can
see different story. You see these shocks, You see how
farmers are adapting and how resilient they are. So it's
a difference between panic and perspective. I guess yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
When you say, okay, so what's an example perhaps of
a current fad, then what might you single out there?
Speaker 3 (04:57):
Yeah, Well, this is where you're always trying to work, right,
You're trying to see if it's a fed or not.
And so at the moment we're starting to see adoption
of technology on farms at a swift rate, so drones,
for example, or wearables, virtual fencing, and you know, all
signs would point to this not being a fed but
you never know when people first start adopting things whether
(05:18):
it's actually going to stick.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
What are the biggest production or system changes that this
magnificent seventy five years of data has captured over that time,
You know, I think it's wonderful. I think back to
you know, one of the farmers who were making this
contribution sixty seventy years ago would have had any idea
how much well it is having an impact after all
this time.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
Yeah, absolutely, I mean touching on it. The fertilizer has
to be one of the biggest changes that's happened in
the last seventy five years, changing pushing the boundaries of
what you could achieve on the land. On the genetics front,
I heard you raise this with Kate the other day.
Around two hundred percent lambing, so the national average for
lambing is one hundred and thirty percent. So you know,
(06:01):
genetics has changed what animals could do and we've driven
that highest fertility from nineteen ninety was about one hundred
percent has grown now to one hundred and thirty percent
just through the cumulative gains that genetics and better managements
been pushing. We've seen carcass weight increase from about thirteen
kg in nineteen ninety to nearly twenty kg. We had
a record just last year. It's up to nearly twenty kg.
(06:22):
And then one of those big ones that was an
absolute shock to the system, deregulation and changing what farm
systems had to do. Forcing we had farm profit absolutely
tanking through the eighties and massive massive impact of a
sector risk moving onto the farm efficiencies, cost controls, resilient
stopping being optional, and that was a massive economic recept
(06:43):
just changed how decisions were made, not just what was produced.
So I'd say those were the big you know, the
big three that I've seen when we look across our survey.
Another one we constantly keep our eye on home. It's
just just on land use change and landues change in
New zealand's been constant. You hagidary expansion more recently and
you have heard Beefromly talk about this. The carbon forestry
has sort of been changing the changing the face I
(07:05):
suppose of New Zealand ship and beef farming, with roughly
three hundred thousand hectores going into forestry in the last
five years. So you know, as an INSIGHT's team, we're
constantly focused on how do you keep farming profit also
that farmers are still here and still competing and you know,
acting as New Zealand's siccond largest exports sector. But those
are just some of the kind of observations we've had.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
It's an interesting one. You when you talk to non
farming people and they try and say, well, hold on,
what's with this lamb production? When we used to have
seventy million yews and now we've got twenty and how
does it all work? And then you you know, now
they're having one and a half lambs and the nearly
what twenty kg carcass I mean, that's how much is
that up? What is the stats? I mean, that's up
(07:46):
quite a few kilos on say forty years ago.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Yeah, well from nineteen ninety that's up seven kg, So
nineteen ninety fifteen kg and now we're up to nearly
twenty kg. You know, and you've got to keep in
mind what the customer is actually asking for offshore, so
you can get heavier animals in other countries, but twenty
kg is around that sweet spot for what the processes
are asking for.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Yeah, you mentioned the eighties. Sorry, yeah it is. And
you mentioned the eighties, Julian, which, to be fair, you know,
I was quite close to the sector there in terms
of a family farm operation, and I just shudder. And
it only just not that long ago. And I guess
those stats are good to have those there, to have
something to look at.
Speaker 3 (08:29):
Yeah, exactly. I mean we'll come an incredibly long way,
and I think that the sector can be hugely proud.
I mean a story of innovation but also resilience. You know,
we've had to adapt and grow. And the fact that,
as you said, gone from seventy million down to twenty
three million sheep now, and yet the production hasn't actually
dropped meaningfully. We're maybe twelve percent down on production, but
(08:51):
having dropped from that is an incredible story of innovation.
And you know it's only the beginning, so that's not
the end of it.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
How is the survey data used beyond simple benchmarking for farmers?
Speaker 3 (09:03):
Yeah, so we use it, I mean on a day
to day basis. I've given you a couple of examples.
We use it on an absolute variety of things, from
trade to research, but just break it down for you.
At the farm level, we're using it to feed into
our tools. So I'm not sure if anybody's come on
to talk to you about Bella our chatpod or not.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Yeah, we had a few chats about BELLA and d Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
Yeah, nice. So about you know, Belle, one hundred million
dollars worth of research sitting on our website, large language
model that you can talk to. So all of our
survey data goes and feeds into BELLO so that people
can say, you know, what's the what's the impact if
I do X or Y on my farm? We can
feed through some of those survey kind of the economic
impact if you do it. So that's pretty cool. Working
with our Farming Excellence team doing research into diseases, facial
(09:44):
ex more and parasites and so on, so we're constantly
feeding our data through to them so they can work out,
you know, the impacts of these diseases on farm. We
at effect the level, we're probably doing quite a few
different pieces. We're working with science organizations, you know your
agg researcher and now BSI. We work with policy shops
policy units, we do environmental analysis. We a couple of
(10:05):
years ago did the carbon footprint of the she can
beef farming sector using our survey data, knowing we're amongst
the lowest globally. We use it to map land is change,
understand where carbon forestry is going and after cyclone Gabrielle,
we use that survey to calculate the real cost of recovery,
not just estimates, but you know what it actually meant
for farm businesses, which was incredibly valuable. We often work
(10:27):
with processes as well, so processes are just trying to
stand they check their own understanding what's happening with seasonal supply,
so we're often feeding through to them. And you know,
obviously in policy debates is where it really comes to
the fort when emotions can run high and policy we're
coming through with the evidence, bace anchored and economic reality
and it's not just assumptions, so you know, it's super useful.
We use it to talk to the public as well.
(10:48):
Really helps explain the economic size of the sector, how
export reliant New Zealand is in the economy, what the
contribution of shipp and beef farming is to the regions
and then feed those through those whide decisions are made
into Wellington or the council chambers, so super diverse, and
that one single data sect helps a farmer make a
(11:09):
better decision, can help government make a better policy call,
or help the public understand why the sector matter. So
you know, it's a really good being for buck.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
I guess, how would you say the survey is evolving
and how do we get new people involved and new
farms and extra data to make this thing even more powerful.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
So the survey always evolves alongside farming itself. Early on,
I guess back in the nineteen fifties, the challenge was
just to measure what was happening at all, and then
over time we started trying and understand better performance. And today,
you know, you can imagine with technology the constraint isn't
so much lack of data deciding what actually matters and
what to do with it. So in recent years we've
added things like greenhouse gas and estimates. We've been including
(11:47):
stuff around woody vegetation so we can talk to the
government around sequestration. We've added geospatial analysis to the survey
so we can link farm performance to slope and soil
and climate, which is all super useful stuff when you're
talking to regional counts and having those environmental conversations. And
then we've had a huge piece I guess I briefly
mentioned it around technology adoption. It's trying to figure out
(12:07):
what are farmers doing with things like drones or virtual fencing,
because we want to understand how those tools interact with
actual farm systems. And you know, personally, I do think
farmers are going to come out of this AI age
really really well as we move into this kind of
world of abundant intelligence where that marginal cost of thinking
is just dropping massively. The scarce resource becomes judgment and
(12:29):
so how are farmers actually making calls? And we've owned
that space for a long time, farmers owning accountability, dealing
with uncertainty and the real world constraints, and so, you know,
I don't think farms are going to become automated in
a hurry. I think that farmers are going to become
more and more like a conductor of interconnected systems, and
we'll be looking at more more like things like augmentation
(12:50):
on farm rather than automation of shipping beef farms. So
I really think that AI is going to reward these
complex systems that our farmers are operating under and the
upside for the sheep and beef sector compared to you
like less complex systems like say dairy. I think the
upside from AI for sheep and beef systems is really
going to be there, So we're continually adapting on that front.
I guess the fact that we are sitting on a
(13:11):
gold mine of seventy five years worth of data as
an organization is one thing that gets me really excited
because we're right at that nexus now where you're able
to pull through predictive analytics machine learning to start really
get more out of the survey. When you've got seventy
five years worth of data and you know what's happening
by a region by farm class, you can really start
(13:32):
to pull through some sort of probabilistic behavior and outcomes
for farmers. You start merging it with weather data sets,
or you know, you're trying to predict what might happen
with fertilizer use or production in a region. We're right
at that point where it's starting to get pretty interesting.
As you mentioned just briefly, how to get new farmers
into the survey. So every year we have a rotation
(13:52):
of about ten percent of new farms coming into a survey.
So we look for a statistically whereby sample as they
are saying, so we're looking for the distribution and by
farm size and by region and farm class. So we
are absolutely always keen to have new farms into the survey.
People go on to our website, the flamenz dot com.
They will find at the bottom of the page there
just a sign up and you can contact us and
(14:13):
we'll absolutely get in touch. The team are really getting
to get talking to anybody who'd like to volunteer their time.
There's no huge commitment, a couple of hours a year
more or less, so, but it means a lot to
us to be able to continue this survey.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Yeah. Well, those couple of ours obviously very very valuable,
as you said, a gold mine, golden nugkets everywhere. Do
you think that that that that information that is provided
by farmers does have an impact, you know, at the
policy and environmental debate level.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Yeah, No, we've had some huge twinsy. I've been here
four years now and the data we're able to feed
to our policy and trade teams is just has had
such a big impact because you're talking about you know,
a lot of today's debates aren't even really about numbers,
that are about trust whose data do you believe? What
happens when most claims are test over time, And because
(15:02):
the survey of the say is grounded and real data
is not hypothetical models, It's been collected consistently, consistently over
time and exposed to reality, we're not talking about hypothetical
So whenever we do feed into policy decisions, beef and
Lambs submissions are taken really quite seriously. So that's a positive.
You'd be surprised how many conversations out there are still
(15:23):
based on anecdotes. So I think that it's just an
incredibly important thing that as much as possible, these discussions
are grounded in evidence. And I guess if you just
zoom out a little bit, there's three big things that
strike me at the moment, Amish. One is the climate.
I mean, the land has always been changing, the climate
has always been a factor for farmers, but it just
means that that operating environment that farmers are working on
(15:45):
is constantly changing, and we need to remain Farmers need
to remain resilient and profitable as much as possible. They
need the data to be able to back that up.
On the technology front, as I say, it's just rapidly changing.
It's absolutely incredible how fast it's changing. And geopolitically, the
rules based order as we know it is kind of teetering.
So you combine those three things and trust and evidence
(16:10):
are just going to be critical as we look forward,
not just surviving but thriving. Then you need your data
and you need your evidence to be able to influence
these discussions, whether it's international trade or here in New
Zealand for policy discussions. So yeah, we're in a good place.
I mean, you can't build good policy on intentions or anecdotes.
It has to be built on evidence. And seventy five
years where the Farmer data gives you that.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
Yeah, seventy five years. I mean there was some smart
cockies involved in making sure that's got off the ground
seventy five years ago, paying big dividends now, right, Julian.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
Exactly, incredibly grateful for the foresight of our board and
ministers even five years ago. It's paying off.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
Now, let's get it out there again. Beeflambenz dot com
that's a great way to find out more about this,
to get sort of dig into the sheep and beef
farm survey.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
Yep, exactly, that'll be fantastic. Onto that website, scroll down
to the bottom of the homepage and you'll see a
big box the inviting people to get interested to contact us,
and we'll we'll make contact and find out whether you're
a good fit.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
Julian, these things sometimes, are you sure that two hours
is you know, a couple of hours is what we're
setting aside here on them. Yeah, you know, given the farm,
you know, we're pretty you know, those that are on
the farm not that not that many spare hours in
the day, but fantastic if they can make a contribution
in that amount of time.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
Absolutely, So, our economic service managers come to you. They
go and visit farmers at their home. They sit with them,
have a good chat, pull out a farm card, talk
through stock numbers and what's happening, and then our economic
service managers go off and do the hard yards and
pull out that farmer data, from farm accounts, from fertilizer companies,
from meat processes. So the bulk of the work is
(17:51):
done by our team, but you know, I do hear
that our farmers really value our team coming out and
talking to them and really getting to the nitty gritty.
Speaker 2 (17:59):
Even as somebody's sort of sort of looking see me
from the outside, you know, incredible resource, Yeah it is.
Speaker 3 (18:05):
I mean we are again as a leverybody, you just
get asked to do a hell of a lot, whether
it's research or extension or policy or trade. You know,
there's sort of if not beef and land, then who.
So we do get pulled in many, many different directions,
and I'm constantly in all how much we do do
as an organization. And the key is kind of trying
to push that all together to get momentum so that
(18:27):
farmers can actually see how much we do do for them.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
I'm that guy who's sort of, ah, yeah, no, maybe
what are you going to say to me to make
me get myself and get on to the beeflamen z
dot com. Go to the bottom there, find the box
and get involved. What makes the different? What gets me
cracking and doing.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
It well, There's a range of different things, I guess
amous one is for that greater good, right for the
factor you can know that you're making a positive impact
for the shop and beef sector, but for an individual
farm of those and the survey actually get an individual
benchmark to reports. It shows where they sit relative to
their peers and their regions and farms. So you know,
that's one of the small wed ons we do for
(19:03):
survey farmers is really giving them their individual benchmark report.
But you know, ultimately this is about the greater good
and much like beef and lamb existing where farmers are
pulling their resources collective leader to help further the sheep
and beef sector and make their individual voice go further.
The survey is a lot the same. You're just helping
your individual voice go further and helping make sure that
(19:25):
sensible rules are made, helping you know, the wider sector
be well oiled, and ultimately helping yourself and your future
farmers still be there thriving in twenty thirty five and beyond.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
We think about this, it is a buoyant time at
the moment, Thank goodness. We did mentioned the eighties earlier.
Let's not go there, but contributing for the greater good
means we have more chance of these times continuing and
long may.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
They Yeah, exactly exactly I mean, I have We're busy
putting together a mid season update at the moment, and
you'd have to say absolutely. Globally, demand is remaining robust
at the moment, supplies remaining short, so it's looking good
at the moment, but you know you want to try
and make Hay well. The sunshine is so us pulling
together and getting as much data together now while times
(20:13):
are good, because they're not always going to be good
and you need those you need the data when things
aren't going quite as well as well. If people are interested,
then by all means jump on our website. That'd be fantastic.
Speaker 2 (20:23):
Julian Ashbury, General Manager Insights, Beef and Lamb in z
Thank you so much. Thoroughly interesting and great opportunity to
be involved for the greater good. Thank you very.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
Much, brilliant thanks for having me. Hammuh, there we go.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
That is Julian Ashbury, General Manager Insights on this edition
of the Beef and Lamb podcast series, where we mark
the seventy fifth anniversary of Beef and Lamb, New Zealand.
Sheep and Beef Farm Survey. That magnificent well, that deep
deep well of gold, nuggets of absolute gold for the
(20:57):
betterment of farming. Make sure you go to beeflambinz dot com.
I'm Hamish Mackay and this podcast. Beef and Lamb podcast
series has been brought to you by the Country.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Exploring ideas and innovation shaping the future of farming with
Beef and Lamb New Zealand. Powered by the Country
Exploring ideas and innovation shaping the future of farming with
Beef and Lamb New Zealand powered by the Country.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome in to the Beef and Lamb podcast series. I'm
Hamish Macca. I thank you very much for your company.
This is the first for twenty twenty six, brought to
you by the Country. Great heavy company. Now this episode
marks the seventy fifth anniversary of the Beef and Lamb
New Zealand Sheep and Beef Farm Survey. That's a fairly
(00:36):
good sort of record of its seventy five years, so
look at this in some depth. We are joined as
you can on a podcast by the General Manager Insights,
Julian Ashby. Welcome along, Julian, Hi have us, thanks having me,
great to have your company here. Tell us what's your
role the general manager Insights? What is that and tail
(00:58):
and what's a sort of an average week look like
for Julian Ashby.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
Yeah, well it's incredibly diverse, as I'm sure you can imagine.
We in any given week are fighting fires on trade.
I think you had Kate on the show recently talking
about the China beef safeguards, so our data is feeding
into all of those trade discussions, things around tariffs. We
are incredibly lucky to be able to project out to
the future, so we're doing some strategy workout to twenty
(01:22):
thirty five and how do we ensure that she can
be farmers remain profitable. We're looking into land use change
in any given week, around what's happening with carbon forestry.
We're just trying to use our survey data, which we'll
talk about further in a minute, to just see how
do we help farmers become more productive, more profitable. So, yeah,
any given week can be incredibly diverse.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
In never a dull moment, and of course this is
a time of profitability on the land, so these are
good times. But it is important as ever, I guess,
to take advantage of the information that we have now
the survey we talk about the seventy fifth anniversary of
the Beef and Land New Zealand Sheep and be Farm Survey.
(02:02):
Why is this data set so important for the sector?
Speaker 3 (02:08):
Yeah, I mean data and surveys can stand a little
bit dry at first, but this isn't really you know,
this is not just a spreadsheet. It's a long running
record of how real farm businesses make decisions under uncertainty.
We're talking you know, actual farm businesses here, not just modeling.
So when people hear seventy five years worth of data,
they often thinking this is just numbers or averages or
you know, the typical farm. But this is actually capturing
(02:30):
seventy five years worth of judgment as farmers responding to
whether price of policy, technology, or social expectations of the time.
So it's a super unique data set. I think Kate
came on the show recently saying it was the only
one of its kind in the world, so we're pretty
proud of that. It's a statistically robust sample, so it's
nationally representative, represents the nine thy five hundred odd commercial
(02:50):
sheet and beef farms we have, and as I say,
it's not modeled, it's based on the actual farms. It's
not owned by processes, banks, regulators, It's owned by farmers
for farmers. So pretty proud of that. And I guess
a huge part of why it's sort of so important
is just it's got this extreme credibility that's been built
up over the years by the people behind it. So
we're exceptionally lucky. We've got staff who've been involved with
(03:12):
the survey for years. We've got Rob Davison who's been
with Beef and Land for fifty years. It's pretty incredible.
Another staff member forty years, in another thirty years. So
we've got deed farming knowledge, long tenure and like the
survey itself, you know, we've seen fads come and go,
We've lived through shocks, and we understand the value of
independency and consistency, and none of us would have exist,
(03:32):
I should at homes without the survey. Farmers themselves who
volunteered their time to the survey, so's super grateful to them.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Okay, so what about the young farmers or the medium
aged farmers. Where will they find the value in this
given that it's seventy five years of continuous data, which
can show I guess a lot that shorter data sets can.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
Yeah, that's right. I mean, you know, seventy five years
with the data just gets rid of the noise basically,
so you can really track proper trends. You can separate
structural change from temporary shocks, and you can see how
farmers are actually responding, like what's sticking order fads, what's
compounding over time? You know, that perspective really matters because
it's a volatile sector. As we were just saying at
(04:15):
the start, it's good times at the moment, but two
years ago we had farm profit as low as that
had been since the nineteen eighty. So when you get
these long data sets, it starts to remind you that
the bad years can feel existential at the time, but
they're really the end of the story. And I guess
a practical example is just something like drought. You know,
in a single bad year you've got, you might feel
like the system's broken and your stocking rates are dropping
(04:35):
and your cash flows tightening, confidence is disappearing. Short data
sets can make that look like a permanent decline, But
if you're looking out over seventy five years, you can
see different story. You see these shocks, You see how
farmers are adapting and how resilient they are. So it's
a difference between panic and perspective. I guess yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
When you say, okay, so what's an example perhaps of
a current fad, then what might you single out there?
Speaker 3 (04:57):
Yeah, Well, this is where you're always trying to work, right,
You're trying to see if it's a fed or not.
And so at the moment we're starting to see adoption
of technology on farms at a swift rate, so drones,
for example, or wearables, virtual fencing, and you know, all
signs would point to this not being a fed but
you never know when people first start adopting things whether
(05:18):
it's actually going to stick.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
What are the biggest production or system changes that this
magnificent seventy five years of data has captured over that time,
You know, I think it's wonderful. I think back to
you know, one of the farmers who were making this
contribution sixty seventy years ago would have had any idea
how much well it is having an impact after all
this time.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
Yeah, absolutely, I mean touching on it. The fertilizer has
to be one of the biggest changes that's happened in
the last seventy five years, changing pushing the boundaries of
what you could achieve on the land. On the genetics front,
I heard you raise this with Kate the other day.
Around two hundred percent lambing, so the national average for
lambing is one hundred and thirty percent. So you know,
(06:01):
genetics has changed what animals could do and we've driven
that highest fertility from nineteen ninety was about one hundred
percent has grown now to one hundred and thirty percent
just through the cumulative gains that genetics and better managements
been pushing. We've seen carcass weight increase from about thirteen
kg in nineteen ninety to nearly twenty kg. We had
a record just last year. It's up to nearly twenty kg.
(06:22):
And then one of those big ones that was an
absolute shock to the system, deregulation and changing what farm
systems had to do. Forcing we had farm profit absolutely
tanking through the eighties and massive massive impact of a
sector risk moving onto the farm efficiencies, cost controls, resilient
stopping being optional, and that was a massive economic recept
(06:43):
just changed how decisions were made, not just what was produced.
So I'd say those were the big you know, the
big three that I've seen when we look across our survey.
Another one we constantly keep our eye on home. It's
just just on land use change and landues change in
New zealand's been constant. You hagidary expansion more recently and
you have heard Beefromly talk about this. The carbon forestry
has sort of been changing the changing the face I
(07:05):
suppose of New Zealand ship and beef farming, with roughly
three hundred thousand hectores going into forestry in the last
five years. So you know, as an INSIGHT's team, we're
constantly focused on how do you keep farming profit also
that farmers are still here and still competing and you know,
acting as New Zealand's siccond largest exports sector. But those
are just some of the kind of observations we've had.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
It's an interesting one. You when you talk to non
farming people and they try and say, well, hold on,
what's with this lamb production? When we used to have
seventy million yews and now we've got twenty and how
does it all work? And then you you know, now
they're having one and a half lambs and the nearly
what twenty kg carcass I mean, that's how much is
that up? What is the stats? I mean, that's up
(07:46):
quite a few kilos on say forty years ago.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Yeah, well from nineteen ninety that's up seven kg, So
nineteen ninety fifteen kg and now we're up to nearly
twenty kg. You know, and you've got to keep in
mind what the customer is actually asking for offshore, so
you can get heavier animals in other countries, but twenty
kg is around that sweet spot for what the processes
are asking for.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Yeah, you mentioned the eighties. Sorry, yeah it is. And
you mentioned the eighties, Julian, which, to be fair, you know,
I was quite close to the sector there in terms
of a family farm operation, and I just shudder. And
it only just not that long ago. And I guess
those stats are good to have those there, to have
something to look at.
Speaker 3 (08:29):
Yeah, exactly. I mean we'll come an incredibly long way,
and I think that the sector can be hugely proud.
I mean a story of innovation but also resilience. You know,
we've had to adapt and grow. And the fact that,
as you said, gone from seventy million down to twenty
three million sheep now, and yet the production hasn't actually
dropped meaningfully. We're maybe twelve percent down on production, but
(08:51):
having dropped from that is an incredible story of innovation.
And you know it's only the beginning, so that's not
the end of it.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
How is the survey data used beyond simple benchmarking for farmers?
Speaker 3 (09:03):
Yeah, so we use it, I mean on a day
to day basis. I've given you a couple of examples.
We use it on an absolute variety of things, from
trade to research, but just break it down for you.
At the farm level, we're using it to feed into
our tools. So I'm not sure if anybody's come on
to talk to you about Bella our chatpod or not.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Yeah, we had a few chats about BELLA and d Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
Yeah, nice. So about you know, Belle, one hundred million
dollars worth of research sitting on our website, large language
model that you can talk to. So all of our
survey data goes and feeds into BELLO so that people
can say, you know, what's the what's the impact if
I do X or Y on my farm? We can
feed through some of those survey kind of the economic
impact if you do it. So that's pretty cool. Working
with our Farming Excellence team doing research into diseases, facial
(09:44):
ex more and parasites and so on, so we're constantly
feeding our data through to them so they can work out,
you know, the impacts of these diseases on farm. We
at effect the level, we're probably doing quite a few
different pieces. We're working with science organizations, you know your
agg researcher and now BSI. We work with policy shops
policy units, we do environmental analysis. We a couple of
(10:05):
years ago did the carbon footprint of the she can
beef farming sector using our survey data, knowing we're amongst
the lowest globally. We use it to map land is change,
understand where carbon forestry is going and after cyclone Gabrielle,
we use that survey to calculate the real cost of recovery,
not just estimates, but you know what it actually meant
for farm businesses, which was incredibly valuable. We often work
(10:27):
with processes as well, so processes are just trying to
stand they check their own understanding what's happening with seasonal supply,
so we're often feeding through to them. And you know,
obviously in policy debates is where it really comes to
the fort when emotions can run high and policy we're
coming through with the evidence, bace anchored and economic reality
and it's not just assumptions, so you know, it's super useful.
We use it to talk to the public as well.
(10:48):
Really helps explain the economic size of the sector, how
export reliant New Zealand is in the economy, what the
contribution of shipp and beef farming is to the regions
and then feed those through those whide decisions are made
into Wellington or the council chambers, so super diverse, and
that one single data sect helps a farmer make a
(11:09):
better decision, can help government make a better policy call,
or help the public understand why the sector matter. So
you know, it's a really good being for buck.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
I guess, how would you say the survey is evolving
and how do we get new people involved and new
farms and extra data to make this thing even more powerful.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
So the survey always evolves alongside farming itself. Early on,
I guess back in the nineteen fifties, the challenge was
just to measure what was happening at all, and then
over time we started trying and understand better performance. And today,
you know, you can imagine with technology the constraint isn't
so much lack of data deciding what actually matters and
what to do with it. So in recent years we've
added things like greenhouse gas and estimates. We've been including
(11:47):
stuff around woody vegetation so we can talk to the
government around sequestration. We've added geospatial analysis to the survey
so we can link farm performance to slope and soil
and climate, which is all super useful stuff when you're
talking to regional counts and having those environmental conversations. And
then we've had a huge piece I guess I briefly
mentioned it around technology adoption. It's trying to figure out
(12:07):
what are farmers doing with things like drones or virtual fencing,
because we want to understand how those tools interact with
actual farm systems. And you know, personally, I do think
farmers are going to come out of this AI age
really really well as we move into this kind of
world of abundant intelligence where that marginal cost of thinking
is just dropping massively. The scarce resource becomes judgment and
(12:29):
so how are farmers actually making calls? And we've owned
that space for a long time, farmers owning accountability, dealing
with uncertainty and the real world constraints, and so, you know,
I don't think farms are going to become automated in
a hurry. I think that farmers are going to become
more and more like a conductor of interconnected systems, and
we'll be looking at more more like things like augmentation
(12:50):
on farm rather than automation of shipping beef farms. So
I really think that AI is going to reward these
complex systems that our farmers are operating under and the
upside for the sheep and beef sector compared to you
like less complex systems like say dairy. I think the
upside from AI for sheep and beef systems is really
going to be there, So we're continually adapting on that front.
I guess the fact that we are sitting on a
(13:11):
gold mine of seventy five years worth of data as
an organization is one thing that gets me really excited
because we're right at that nexus now where you're able
to pull through predictive analytics machine learning to start really
get more out of the survey. When you've got seventy
five years worth of data and you know what's happening
by a region by farm class, you can really start
(13:32):
to pull through some sort of probabilistic behavior and outcomes
for farmers. You start merging it with weather data sets,
or you know, you're trying to predict what might happen
with fertilizer use or production in a region. We're right
at that point where it's starting to get pretty interesting.
As you mentioned just briefly, how to get new farmers
into the survey. So every year we have a rotation
(13:52):
of about ten percent of new farms coming into a survey.
So we look for a statistically whereby sample as they
are saying, so we're looking for the distribution and by
farm size and by region and farm class. So we
are absolutely always keen to have new farms into the survey.
People go on to our website, the flamenz dot com.
They will find at the bottom of the page there
just a sign up and you can contact us and
(14:13):
we'll absolutely get in touch. The team are really getting
to get talking to anybody who'd like to volunteer their time.
There's no huge commitment, a couple of hours a year
more or less, so, but it means a lot to
us to be able to continue this survey.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Yeah. Well, those couple of ours obviously very very valuable,
as you said, a gold mine, golden nugkets everywhere. Do
you think that that that that information that is provided
by farmers does have an impact, you know, at the
policy and environmental debate level.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Yeah, No, we've had some huge twinsy. I've been here
four years now and the data we're able to feed
to our policy and trade teams is just has had
such a big impact because you're talking about you know,
a lot of today's debates aren't even really about numbers,
that are about trust whose data do you believe? What
happens when most claims are test over time, And because
(15:02):
the survey of the say is grounded and real data
is not hypothetical models, It's been collected consistently, consistently over
time and exposed to reality, we're not talking about hypothetical
So whenever we do feed into policy decisions, beef and
Lambs submissions are taken really quite seriously. So that's a positive.
You'd be surprised how many conversations out there are still
(15:23):
based on anecdotes. So I think that it's just an
incredibly important thing that as much as possible, these discussions
are grounded in evidence. And I guess if you just
zoom out a little bit, there's three big things that
strike me at the moment, Amish. One is the climate.
I mean, the land has always been changing, the climate
has always been a factor for farmers, but it just
means that that operating environment that farmers are working on
(15:45):
is constantly changing, and we need to remain Farmers need
to remain resilient and profitable as much as possible. They
need the data to be able to back that up.
On the technology front, as I say, it's just rapidly changing.
It's absolutely incredible how fast it's changing. And geopolitically, the
rules based order as we know it is kind of teetering.
So you combine those three things and trust and evidence
(16:10):
are just going to be critical as we look forward,
not just surviving but thriving. Then you need your data
and you need your evidence to be able to influence
these discussions, whether it's international trade or here in New
Zealand for policy discussions. So yeah, we're in a good place.
I mean, you can't build good policy on intentions or anecdotes.
It has to be built on evidence. And seventy five
years where the Farmer data gives you that.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
Yeah, seventy five years. I mean there was some smart
cockies involved in making sure that's got off the ground
seventy five years ago, paying big dividends now, right, Julian.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
Exactly, incredibly grateful for the foresight of our board and
ministers even five years ago. It's paying off.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
Now, let's get it out there again. Beeflambenz dot com
that's a great way to find out more about this,
to get sort of dig into the sheep and beef
farm survey.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
Yep, exactly, that'll be fantastic. Onto that website, scroll down
to the bottom of the homepage and you'll see a
big box the inviting people to get interested to contact us,
and we'll we'll make contact and find out whether you're
a good fit.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
Julian, these things sometimes, are you sure that two hours
is you know, a couple of hours is what we're
setting aside here on them. Yeah, you know, given the farm,
you know, we're pretty you know, those that are on
the farm not that not that many spare hours in
the day, but fantastic if they can make a contribution
in that amount of time.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
Absolutely, So, our economic service managers come to you. They
go and visit farmers at their home. They sit with them,
have a good chat, pull out a farm card, talk
through stock numbers and what's happening, and then our economic
service managers go off and do the hard yards and
pull out that farmer data, from farm accounts, from fertilizer companies,
from meat processes. So the bulk of the work is
(17:51):
done by our team, but you know, I do hear
that our farmers really value our team coming out and
talking to them and really getting to the nitty gritty.
Speaker 2 (17:59):
Even as somebody's sort of sort of looking see me
from the outside, you know, incredible resource, Yeah it is.
Speaker 3 (18:05):
I mean we are again as a leverybody, you just
get asked to do a hell of a lot, whether
it's research or extension or policy or trade. You know,
there's sort of if not beef and land, then who.
So we do get pulled in many, many different directions,
and I'm constantly in all how much we do do
as an organization. And the key is kind of trying
to push that all together to get momentum so that
(18:27):
farmers can actually see how much we do do for them.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
I'm that guy who's sort of, ah, yeah, no, maybe
what are you going to say to me to make
me get myself and get on to the beeflamen z
dot com. Go to the bottom there, find the box
and get involved. What makes the different? What gets me
cracking and doing.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
It well, There's a range of different things, I guess
amous one is for that greater good, right for the
factor you can know that you're making a positive impact
for the shop and beef sector, but for an individual
farm of those and the survey actually get an individual
benchmark to reports. It shows where they sit relative to
their peers and their regions and farms. So you know,
that's one of the small wed ons we do for
(19:03):
survey farmers is really giving them their individual benchmark report.
But you know, ultimately this is about the greater good
and much like beef and lamb existing where farmers are
pulling their resources collective leader to help further the sheep
and beef sector and make their individual voice go further.
The survey is a lot the same. You're just helping
your individual voice go further and helping make sure that
(19:25):
sensible rules are made, helping you know, the wider sector
be well oiled, and ultimately helping yourself and your future
farmers still be there thriving in twenty thirty five and beyond.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
We think about this, it is a buoyant time at
the moment, Thank goodness. We did mentioned the eighties earlier.
Let's not go there, but contributing for the greater good
means we have more chance of these times continuing and
long may.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
They Yeah, exactly exactly I mean, I have We're busy
putting together a mid season update at the moment, and
you'd have to say absolutely. Globally, demand is remaining robust
at the moment, supplies remaining short, so it's looking good
at the moment, but you know you want to try
and make Hay well. The sunshine is so us pulling
together and getting as much data together now while times
(20:13):
are good, because they're not always going to be good
and you need those you need the data when things
aren't going quite as well as well. If people are interested,
then by all means jump on our website. That'd be fantastic.
Speaker 2 (20:23):
Julian Ashbury, General Manager Insights, Beef and Lamb in z
Thank you so much. Thoroughly interesting and great opportunity to
be involved for the greater good. Thank you very.
Speaker 3 (20:32):
Much, brilliant thanks for having me. Hammuh, there we go.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
That is Julian Ashbury, General Manager Insights on this edition
of the Beef and Lamb podcast series, where we mark
the seventy fifth anniversary of Beef and Lamb, New Zealand.
Sheep and Beef Farm Survey. That magnificent well, that deep
deep well of gold, nuggets of absolute gold for the
(20:57):
betterment of farming. Make sure you go to beeflambinz dot com.
I'm Hamish Mackay and this podcast. Beef and Lamb podcast
series has been brought to you by the Country.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Exploring ideas and innovation shaping the future of farming with
Beef and Lamb New Zealand. Powered by the Country
Popular Podcasts
Math & Magic: Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing with Bob Pittman
How do the smartest marketers and business entrepreneurs cut through the noise? And how do they manage to do it again and again? It's a combination of math—the strategy and analytics—and magic, the creative spark. Join iHeartMedia Chairman and CEO Bob Pittman as he analyzes the Math and Magic of marketing—sitting down with today's most gifted disruptors and compelling storytellers.
Eye On College Basketball
CBS Sports’ official college basketball podcast is the most entertaining and informative of its kind. Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander bring the sport into your ears at least three times per week with commentary, reporting, insider information and statistical analysis throughout college basketball all year long.
The Questlove Show
The Questlove Show builds on the award-winning Questlove Supreme podcast, bringing listeners into intimate, one-on-one conversations with peers, influences, and friends. Hosted by Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, each episode uncovers the unexpected — from morning rituals and hidden talents to the art and experiences that shaped a guest’s journey. Sometimes playful, sometimes profound, always curious, QLS offers rare insight into leaders in music, film, television, comedy, literature, mental health, and beyond. It’s a fresh, unpredictable spin from a trusted source — a place where randomness is encouraged, tangents are welcomed, and conversations are anything but ordinary.