The Country 27/02/26: Chris Brandolino talks to Jamie Mackay

Friday’s Weather Guy from Earth Sciences NZ farewells summer - for those of us lucky enough to have had one!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Here's my favorite weather man on the country on a Friday.
That's why he's kicking off the show today, Chris Brandolino,
and several other days of the week as well.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
I might add, thank you, Jammy. I think I appreciate
that because I was a little worried there was a
lot of qualifiers there.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Well, well, well, let's just see how you go today
before I declare you the greatest weather man of all time.
I am looking. You're with Earth Sciences, New Zealand. By
the way, Chris Brandolena. I am looking at my Friday Bible,
then New Zealand Drought Index map and I look for
wee bits of yellow and it gets really dry, it
goes red, and because of all the rain we've had
around the country, hasn't really been an issue since Christmas.

(00:37):
But I'm seeing yellow creeping into Northland where the field
days are on the manor Or two region Inland Otago.
I guess if we're going to be dry, Chris, second
to last day of summer is not unexpected.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
No, it's not. I guess some of the placement to
be fair across the Far North and Northland is a
bit unusual, especially we had a Lia Nina during the summer.
But it goes to show you we know the average outcome,
but no Lainina or El Nino for them, matter is average.
There are always sort of variances. I think the theme
of heavy rainfall events did pan out. We saw a

(01:11):
couple of them over the summer season. Of course, the
one in kind of later in January than the one
about you know, ten days two weeks ago, both sort
of favoring the eastern part of the North Island, so
that did sort of fit, you know, I guess was
on brand for Latinina summer, but that dryness in Northland
a bit off brand, and it is gonna be dry, Jamie.
I think over the next sort of ten days or so,

(01:35):
the rainfall that occurs over months of the country is
gonna be spotty. I do think a bit of rain
will fall over the weekend over a Hawk's Bays, on
off adye Gisban, also across say the Auckland region, maybe
parts of those areas that are drying Northland and get
a bit of rain and a bit of rain over
towards say Canterbury, Mid and Northern Canterbury a bit of

(01:57):
rain over the next few days, but with that rain.
We're going to get the raine, Emmy, there's a puff
of chilli air coming. Holy smoked, it could be some
early season frosts for parts of the South Island early
next week.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Well that is a bit early first few days of
autumn or fall as you Americans like to call it, Chris,
and the and the f words already being mentioned, Monngey.
You know you talk about dry over the next few weeks,
Well that that is actually going to be welcome to
buy a lot of people, especially the arable and cropping farmers,
as they try and dry out crops and get them harvested.

(02:32):
And then of course we're still having to get well
and truly into the picking season for the likes of apples,
well and truly underway. But key we fruit early things
coming off, yep.

Speaker 2 (02:43):
Yep, yep. Look, and I think I think this, this
dryness we're going to see is nicely timed, as you
really nicely point out there, Jamie. But we're gonna have
to speak out of two sides of our mouth here.
So on the one side, we talked about the dryness,
a lack of like you know, widespread, widespread keyword, their
substantial rain. So that I'm using my words carefully. Over

(03:03):
the next day seven to ten days, however, as you
look farther afield, and we'll be issuing our autumn outlook
on Monday. But since look, since you're a friend of
the family, you know where the key is under the mat,
We're gonna let you in the front door and give
you a bit of insight as to what we're expecting
in autumn. So for the month of March, we're gonna
have to still watch for these big rainfall events. There's

(03:24):
gonna be two opportunities, we think, well, two distinct opportunities
for big rainfall events stemming from the north. One could
be as early as say, maybe next sort of the tenth,
maybe the eleventh to twelfth for the North Island. That'll
be something we'll have to watch. That's a bit iffy. However,

(03:45):
I think perhaps a more profound opportunity for northerly friend
which our northerly friends caused the trouble. You know this right,
subtropical moisture. Tropical moisture, that's when we get into trouble.
It's gonna be perhaps the last week to ten days
of March into early April. That is the sort of
window we're going to have to watch for any heavy

(04:06):
rainfall events stemming from the north. Things are lining up
for that to happen. So in between or outside of
those opportunities, Jamie, that's where the dryness is really good.
So these extended dry periods where not a lot of
substantial widespread rain happens and things could flare up or
we get a whole bunch of rain out once, which
we don't want, and that can persist into early April.
So and why the cool weather we talked about, We'll

(04:28):
be here, well actually downright Chile for a few days
next week. It is going to warm up. We're gonna
see some unusual warmth. That looks like as we get
toward this time next week and beyond, could be an
extended period of unusual warmth for much of the country,
especially the North Island, from about this time next week
and beyond. So something looked forward to. If you're a

(04:49):
fan of the warm weather, that cold step next week
not gonna last forever.

Speaker 1 (04:53):
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why this man is
my favorite with the man on the country on a Friday,
I say you

Speaker 2 (04:59):
Chris, alright, buddy, take care