March 16, 2026 • 36 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Damien O'Connor, Todd Clark, and Kelvin Wickham.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to Isuzu, Get Demo deals
on the tough Dmax Today you.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Really got to jelly Spirit.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Don't even know where to begin.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
In Good Afternoon, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This is
the Country, brought to you by Isuzu and farm Lands
Saint Patrick's Day. We're going to play a wee bit
of Irish music. Ronan Keenan Keenan life is a life
as a roller coaster and that absolutely described the world
at the moment. On the show today, Damian O'Connor, a
(01:04):
good irishman on Saint Patrick's Day. Todd Clark a US
farming correspondent based out of Lexington, Kentucky. He spent some
time recently in New Zealand, Great Bloke and Calvin Wickham,
chief executive of Balanced Agro Nutrients, on the supply and
price issues for fertilizer as a result of this Middle
East conflict. But let's kick it off with Cameron Bagory,
(01:26):
who's waiting patiently. I can hear some gurgling in the
background on a roadside near Queenstown. Cameron, Good Afternoon, let's
have a look at this. Let's dissect this economic crisis
we're in or is that too strong a word? Economic crisis?
Good afternoon, Good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Look at I think crisis is the stages. You have
got a strong terminology, you know, each keep sort of
checking lettle in the cope. But does it good? What's
going on? The answer is not, does anybody have a
real firm stare on how this thing is going to
end up? Sure? Answerment. You know, we've seen all the
prices go up or prices come back down. They've gone
back up, back down a little bit overnight. We call
(02:06):
it jamdernomics, a whole lot of flip flops. But suffice
to say, Jamie, your oil prices or anything like gas
which is input into the food productions at a bowl yo,
prices go up. That's not good for inflation. It's not
good for central banks you control the infrastrations. It's not
good for global growth. So we sitting on each of
the moment watching a whole lot of balls in the ear.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Well, let's dissect some of these numbers, or crunch some
of these numbers. I'm going to talk exchange rate and
interest rates. I'm assuming with my economics one oh one background, Cameron,
that exchange rates ours will be going down, interst rates
going up. Is it that simple?
Speaker 3 (02:41):
Oh not quite. Look, there's a whole lot of things
that are impact in the exchange rate. What tends to
take place, particularly in New Zealand, the US dollar of
risk a version bouts bounces up. That tends to be
negative for the ENGINE dollar relative to the greenback. For
what we also saw on Friday night, Jamie, we've been
talking about this over the past that months, about the
United States inflation being a little bit sticky, and we
(03:03):
saw a little bit of a stronger inflation print. People
starting to pair back expectations of the US better reserve will
be cutting interstrates, so the yield differential changes a little bit.
That tends the US dollar positive, emty dollar negatives that
we're back down around that fifty eight cent marked. The
interesting cross though, has been the movement in the New
Zealand dollar Bossie doll and New Zealand dollars dollars down
(03:25):
sort of below eighty three cents. It was only six
months ago was up around ninety cents. RBA looks like
they're going to be hiking interstrates Later on today inspect
I followed up again with another move and may they've
got inflation problem. The RBA looks like they're going to
delivering three interstrate hikes in a row. That's not going
to be good good for growth. And Australia is going
to I just bea going to be the unlucky country
in the next sort of three years, not the lucky country.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
What about us? How many interest rate hikes as it
stands at the moment, and I know how long is
a piece of string? But there was talk of one
later in the year before this all started, But now
we're looking at a couple. When could potentially the first
one be. Could it be when the Reserve Bank next meets?
And what April?
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Is it? April will be too early, but the market
is starting to think a little bit about May. Still
low probability at the moment, about a fifteen percent maybe
twenty cent probability on May. But the million dollar question
here is what's the trajectory for inflation. Inflation has come
in a bit stronger than what the Reserve Bank has
(04:23):
been expecting. Some of that's a lot of bit of
exogenous sort of one off. But when you face an
all shop Jamie. The Reserve Bank will ignore the first
round impact of higher diesel or higher petrol prices. They're
going to be alert to what's called the second round.
In fact, Yeah, this is the flow into taxi charges,
this is the flow under of ordinary transport coots. This
(04:43):
is a flowland of food related inflation because transport costs
move up, or the impact on fertilizer prices, et cetera,
et cetera, et cetera. So central banks around the globe,
in fact, there's a lot of them that are meeting
this week, so it's going to be interesting to see
the communication or where they sort of side because you
inflation bare for growth, but inflation is inflaient at the
end of the day, they've got so oil price inflation
(05:04):
is fair for inflation, but it's bad for growth. So
what do you side with growth? Would you side with inflation?
Your central bank? So I think you only need to
decide with inflation, which is not good where interstrates could
be in the next five months.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
You were telling me as we queued up the interview
I got you online. You said people are getting carried
away with the price of petrol. It's really the price
of diesel, that is the key one. And obviously diesel
drives the economy.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
Yeah, well you know, I still an economy. You just
take the trucks off the road, because, yeah, most of
the freight ground this country gets from A to B.
And what's the key fuel. It's diesel. Now, look at
what supplies the farming sector. It's diesel. So it's interesting
to see a whole lot of the news feeds that's
coming out and you go interview someone that's filling in
their car with petrol at the local sort of pump. Well,
(05:50):
we can assume about ten million leaders a day of diesel,
about eight to nine million leaders a day of petrol.
So I guess what diesel consumption is a lot higher
than petrol can and you've put a little bit of
aviation gas on top of that. You have twenty four
million leaders of fuel we go through every day. But
we can do without our cars for a couple of ys.
(06:11):
You take some trucks off the road, you're going to
start to see some pretty quick economic collateral damage and
trucks that depended upon on diesel, not petrol.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
We've talked about some of the microeconomic effects New Zealand's economy.
Let's go macro, let's go the global economy here. Could
this be the forerunner of a change in the world order?
Is China sitting back at the moment and laughing all
the way to the bank?
Speaker 3 (06:36):
Well, what's going on at the moment has been on
the pipeline literally for a long time. We've been used
to what's called this rules based order where the world
basically played nights for a long time. Well, that rules
based order has been challenged over the past five years,
increasingly with countries exercising power. Now that's China, Taiwan to
(07:00):
Ukraine and Russia. And of course what we're seeing at
the moment, there's just another example of how crumping rules
you have Venezuela. What could go on in Cuba. It's
just a brave new world at the moment. Now, when
you're in a rules based system, you can run with
what's called a just in time model. But when you're
seeing this exercise of power, which doesn't jack you have
(07:22):
illegal backing, then you start to think about just in
case as opposed to you just in time. Guess what
just in case is not efficient? Is just in time,
but you need it for risk management, and there is
a cost to have with running a just in case
model as opposed to a scene.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
With just in time.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
So there's a whole lot of different permutations here. But
the world has been changing for years, Jamie. This is
not just crept up on this overnight.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Are we going to see tomorrow night? Is it tonight?
Speaker 3 (07:49):
No?
Speaker 2 (07:49):
It is tonight? Isn't it gdt auction? Or do you
got any inside all for us?
Speaker 3 (07:53):
There are not anything more than you haven't looked at
up and it's so busy looking at what's going on
in the United States. Will moves and keep him up
with that sort of news toide at the moment. Your
international fixtures are sort of taking my attention at the moment, Jamie,
as opposed to what happens to a GDP. I'll look
at that tomirow Up takes blows.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Hey, excuse me. Cameron Bagrie thinks is always for your time.
Safe travels from Queenstown to Dunedin. All the best joy
there we go, good block and dependent economists. Smart guy,
Cameron bagriy right, this is the country. It is Saint
Patrick's day. A bit of Irish music. We've got Aaron
(08:33):
Gardner in the studio. The tech has moved us onto
a new system called Zetta. A life is a roller
coaster and you can't fight it. You've just got to
go with the new flow. So Aaron's Aaron's chosen some
of the Irish music that he wanted, a wee bit
of Thin Lizzie, So we'll do that for you before
the end of the hour. Damian O'Connor, Labour's trade spokesperson.
(08:56):
I think he's on his motorbike. Todd Clark is in
Canucky and Calvin Wickham is the chief executive of Balance
Now fuels one thing, but from the farming point of view,
fertilized is a bit of a nightmare at the moment
as well. We're going to dissect the numbers on that
one before the end of the hour. Up next, Damian O'Connor.
(09:41):
Damian O'Connor as Labour's trade minister. He's also a good irishman.
On Saint Patrick's day, Damien, no doubt you're going to
have an argument somewhere, like a true irishman over a Guinness.
What do you got planned for the rest of the day.
Speaker 4 (09:55):
Well, let's start without the Binnis she around in the
White electorate on my bike being endured in at the
moment actually talking to a few people. But I've got
a bike green fluorro jacket which I put on the
rain so I'll wear that today. Is an acknowledgment of
Saint Patrick.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
Are you wasting your time riding your bike around the
White Tachi district? You're never going to win it in
a month of Sundays.
Speaker 4 (10:20):
Never seen that?
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Come on, why did you put your name forward?
Speaker 4 (10:25):
It's interesting it's a David Parker had won this electorate
actually going back and you know a lot of people across.
Of course it's based on rural industries, but rural communities
and they're not all sharing the same love as the
rural industries. And I think that people have to realize
that ashes to healthcare, some of the educational issues, even
some of the fibrigades you know, and lots of other
(10:47):
things that mean rural communities need to be supported by
better than this current coalition government.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Do you feel sorry for the current coalition government? They're
just starting to get there on me back on track
and then quite literally Trump Well dumps a bomb on it.
Speaker 4 (11:05):
Damien, No, I don't think they were getting it back
on track. They were trying to talk it up. There
was nothing. There were no indications that it was really
starting to move forward. We were still flatlining at best.
And yeah, this is a terrible, terrible international intervention. There
was not much sympathy from the government or from the opposition.
When we had to deal with COVID. They were demanding
(11:27):
we spend more money supporting business. They've forgotten about that now,
but we do know. Anyone in the world, of course,
has to sympathize with a ridiculous conflict that has been
created in the Middle East. It's not helping anyone.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
What's your take as an experienced former trade minister on
the implications from the Middle East conflict? Because the great unknown,
of course is how long this war or conflict is
going to last. But I know Nikola Willis did some
modeling yesterday on worst case scenario the thing going to
the end of the year. That wouldn't surprise me either,
(12:02):
because Trumps sort of running out of support.
Speaker 4 (12:05):
Well he is, and you know, to kind of challenge
Keir Sarma and saying why would you go back to
your cabinet for decisions when to put your country in
the war? Shows how ridiculous his oversight and governances of
that country. If he thinks he's a dictator and he
wants to be like Putin, then he should be exposed
to that, not pretending that you're in some democratic you know,
(12:26):
the leading democratic country in the world. I guess it's
the biggest one. It's always been proud of its democracy
and its systems of protection of through the constitution. But
it's completely out of control and the consequences each and
every one of us are bearing at the moment the
price of petrol for a start. Who knows what it
might mean for other supply chains around the world. The
(12:48):
realities of trade is that we rely on one another
for almost everything that we use in our everyday lives,
and that you know, fertilizer to produce our food. You know,
we can have food, but without fertilizer, it's really tough fuel,
all of those things, cell phone communications. We need the
supply chains to be working, you know, it's not openly,
(13:12):
certainly efficiently, and you know what we see here around
the Middle East is flowing onto each and every one
of us.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Yeah, I'm really worried about fertilizer. Going to talk about
that in a tick. What about ways to mitigate this
fuel crisis if we can call it that. You and
I Damien are of a similar generation. We're old enough
to remember Carlas Days. I was the first year commerce
student at Otago University when Carlos Days were introduced on
(13:40):
the thirtieth July nineteen seventy nine. They lasted through till
May nineteen eighty. But it was a bit of a farce,
wasn't it.
Speaker 4 (13:48):
Well, no, look, it was an effort, and it will
be the same with fertilizer. We just might have to
get used to using a little less, being a little
less dependent. And actually, if you carry that forward, if
we'd carried forward some of the lessons of the energy
crisis of the seventies and you know, turning off lights
and being more efficient with electricity and fuel, we might
have been better off now. But actually, you know, we
(14:09):
just kind of forgot about it all and charged on
into the future. You know, if we drive a little less,
you know, we can stay at home. We might have
to have more working from home. We saw that through COVID,
and now there's been a whole lot of pressure to
get people back to work. All of those lessons we
can turn into just a bit more independence, a little
less dependence on fossil fuels, and you know, maybe we'll
(14:34):
be a little more secure into the future.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
So maybe people need to follow your lead and get
on a motorbike, a trail bike. I think in your case,
on senseless crusades and an electric you can't win.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
Well, that might be your interpretation, but I'd say it's
a great way to get around then, and people do
enjoy actually talking to anyone on a motorbike, I guess.
But it enables me to get into the back country
and to places like Halden Station and other farms around
the place, just to see what's going on. Pretty green,
(15:08):
pretty good. But you know, there are some issues, bigger
issues on agriculture that, in spite of the great prices,
we have to address going forward.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
If I was being really cheeky, I could say you're
as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike, Damien.
But I would never say that because no, because I
really appreciate your contribution here on the country. On Saint
Patrick's Day, you enjoy a guinness and a good argument somewhere.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
Well, I think there's a whole lot of people appreciate
me trying to keep your hold your feet to the
fire jam and make sure that it's not all one
sided dribble. So I enjoy a good argument and let's
celebrate it on St. Patty's ay go Well, thanks right, but.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Yes, always good for a bit of band to Damien O'Connor, there, young, Young,
everything's relative young Aaron Gardner in the studio here are
tech down from Auckland because mum lives and in the cargo. Hello,
missus Gardner. You might be thing just in case your
son's on the radio. But I said to him, what
year were you born? He said, nineteen ninety one. He
won't remember Carlos Days, some of you will. After the break,
(16:10):
I'm going to give you just a wee reminder of
what Carlos Days were all about. Hopefully, if I get time,
Michelle will be in here with rural news and will
update sport for you as well. Read welcome back to
(16:33):
the country. It's twenty eight after twelve. Just on the
Carlos Days. As I said, July thirtieth, nineteen seventy nine
through to May nineteen eighty, Wednesday and Thursday we were
the most popular days of twenty seven percent choosing Wednesday
twenty four percent Thursday. This is Tuesday morning by the pogues.
By the way, each Carlos Day was twenty two hours long,
(16:55):
starting at two am and running until midnight, so people
could get home safe from the night before if you're
out on the ran Tan. Carlos Days were easily the
most unpopular of the petrol saving measures and the most abused.
There was three hundred and forty eight thousand exemption stickers issued,
which meant one and four vehicles had one, undermining the
scheme from the start. Carlos Days, as I said, were
(17:19):
finally suspended on the thirteenth of May nineteen eighty and
if you had two cars in your household, and even
back then many people did it rendered Carlos Days next
to useless. Here's Michelle was the latest and rural news.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
The contries world news with cald Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand. Visit steel for dot co
dot NZ for your local stickers.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Ask your parents about Carlos Days, Michelle. They'll remember fondly.
Speaker 5 (17:49):
Ask you it shoul, Do you remember what Carlo sticker
was on your car? For Carlos days because it was different.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
I was a scarfee and I didn't have much. I
didn't have a car. Half the time, I walked everywhere,
walked from Irana Hall to Krasbrook all the way, all
the way. There was a few far, there was a
few pubs on the way. But that's what we did
in those days. You tell the young people of today
that and they won't believe you. Away you go again.
Speaker 5 (18:11):
In real news, what is New Zealand's proposal to stop
producing frozen vegetables is expected to impact the country's already
herding vegetable growers and seed producers. The seed industry was
taking stock of what last week's announcement by one of
the country's largest food producers would mean for growers. A
well known packet of what is frozen mixed vegetables of peas,
carrots and corn, for example, perhaps no more under new proposals.
(18:34):
So face closures are being proposed at its food factories
in Auckland and Eating christ Church and it's packing facility
in Hastings. Around three hundred and fifty mostly full time
roles will be impacted, including vegetable growers and around two
hundred and twenty of them in Canterburs.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
I love my Watties frozen peas, but I like eating
them frozen rather than cooked.
Speaker 5 (18:52):
Are you one of those?
Speaker 2 (18:53):
Yes, I am one of those, mind jo. I used
to eat tucks dog biscuits when I was a kid.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
I know every country kid that's tried to do.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Yeah, but that probably explains a lot. They were good,
the tux dog biscuits.
Speaker 5 (19:04):
They're kind of.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
I don't know how to explain that they weren't too bad.
They weren't too bad, and actually weren't. We used to
The Dog's war bowl used to freeze over in the
winter in South London and we would break the ice
and suck on it. Now that was a mistake anyhow,
that probably explains a few things as well. Let's do sport.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
Sports on the country with AFCO invested in your foaming success.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
The discussions are continuing today in Melbourne on whether to
privatize Australian's cricket Big Bash League. The suggestions are that
six teams would have forty nine percent available, but two
most likely the Melbourne Renegades and Sydney Thunder, would offer
one hundred percent, and Paralympic skier Adam Hall, just from
(19:55):
the Tiree just outside of Dneed is uncertain if a
milan Quarte event has been as last a thirty eight
year old silver and the slalom standing took him to
six medals from as many games. Hall is still processing
the achievement. Well done, Adam Hall, you're a bit of
a legend. Up next on the country, we are heading
to another country, namely the United States. What is our
(20:17):
Republican voting US Farming correspondent, Todd Clark? Think of Trump?
We'll ask him next. I know you're missing home.
Speaker 6 (20:28):
It's been so long since you've been in the like
you had in Dublin now with nothing birder dream.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
He is our US farming correspondent based out of Lexington, Kentucky,
where it's fairly cold at the moment. Todd Clark, are
you officially in spring yet?
Speaker 6 (20:45):
Good afternoon, Jamie. I wish, I wish it were a
couple of weeks from now and there was enough green
grass to sustain the cattle. But yes, we've had some
warm temperatures and growing grass. But today it's it's been
blowing snow negative one celsius and I think a couple
more days of this and then we're back to warm again,
(21:08):
so but we'll have we'll have a couple more weeks
of this before we're officially into all out spring.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
Are you still getting record process for your baef in
the States.
Speaker 6 (21:19):
Yes, we are, and it's anything what we would call
grass cattle, those you know, weaned animals. Those are creeping
up even higher, if that's even possible. Calcaf pairs are
six thousand US dollars at the moment for just any
(21:39):
sort of calcalf pair. So yes, very very high prices.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
You and Lexington, Kentucky. As I said, smack will not
smack in the middle of the country, but certainly in
the Trump Belt. I know that he's very popular in
that part of the country. Can we still say that,
what does the average American say about the war in
the Middle East?
Speaker 6 (22:00):
Yeah, Trump's losing a little bit. If he had any shine,
he's certainly losing some of it. And one of the
things about his first tenure five years ago or whenever
that was, was that he he didn't get us any
in any wars. And there's a lot of dissatisfaction at
(22:22):
the moment with you know, we've gone in and invaded
one of the countries, done in South America and taking
out their their leader, and now we're over and Iran
and and so there's a lot of concern about what
he's doing, why was he doing it in Who's he
answering to, Well.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
He's answering I can answer that one for you. He's
answering to nobody. Maybe he just got carried away after
his overnight success as it were in Venezuela.
Speaker 6 (22:52):
Yeah, but that's very different from the Middle East. And
surely he knows that. But at this point I'm not
sure what he knows. But yeah. And the other thing
is that at the farm or farm gate, there was
some this will make Kiwi's cringe, but there was some
subsidy money that came from the government because of tariffs
(23:13):
and that sort of thing that just came out in
the last few weeks. Well, all of that's been given
back through high fuel cost and fertilizer costs. So nitrogen
has gone back through the roof because of the issue
in the Middle East. And so anyway, there's a lot
of frustration over a cost, especially at the farm nitrogen
(23:36):
in particular, and diesel in most of Like we talked
about before, most of the crops aren't making money. The
budgets don't look good. So we're at the beginning of
the season and here we are again. The price prices
are going through the roof, and the prices for the
commodities are not. So yeah, a little bit of dissatisfaction
(23:58):
at the moment.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
And yet you go as are self sufficient effectively in
fuel due to the fracking as I understand it.
Speaker 6 (24:06):
That's correct. Yes, so there's really not any maybe an
arrogant statement as an American, but not a lot of
concerns about will we have fuel? But it but the
price still creeps up with issues like this. So it's gained.
This is imperial gallons, but it's gained about sixty cents
(24:26):
for gasoline petrol at the tank since since I've returned
from New Zealand. And so that's concerning. Just prices continue
to remain high. If anything, get hired and everyone's ready
for him to come back down just a little bit.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
Do you wish you was still in New Zealand with
your mates Butt and John. You had a great time,
you guys, touring around the farms and provinces of New Zealand.
Speaker 6 (24:56):
Oh yes I do. Although I'm looking forward to Spring.
I love being a Kentuckian and from Lexington, But if
I had my wish, yes, I would love to be
a Kei week. But yes, we had a great trip.
We were talking about it a couple of days ago,
texting back and forth, and I don't know how we
(25:16):
could have had a better trip. It was between the
people and the sites, the food, just everything. There was
no negatives. From the top of the North Island all
the way to the bottom of the South Island.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
What did you make of Adrian Fry's dairy farm in
Southland Riversdale? And I've got a vested interest in this
one because it surrounds my duck pond. It's our old
family farm. He is a very innovative farmer. And Bud
and John you too, mates you brought over from the States,
were dairy farmers. What did they make of what he
was doing? Because he's organic, he's a two he's using
(25:51):
the whole of system.
Speaker 6 (25:53):
Yeah, we were really intrigued with him, especially you showed
us the Country Calendar episode from a couple of years
ago that to focused on his operation, and so we
had some questions from the Country Calendar show that he
was on, and and we got some of those answered,
and we were impressed with him, but he also had
(26:15):
some things that we didn't completely understand why he did
what he did. But the big takeaway was was he
shared I won't say on your show, but he shared
his profitability there on the farm and so he makes
he makes good money, has a good lifestyle, and sometimes
we lose focus of that sort of thing, and so
(26:35):
that was a big takeaway from from that visit with
him was and there was other people there too, we
kind of tagged along with a field Day, But for us,
the big takeaway was quality of life and the ability
to make a living, and so he seems to tick
both of those boxes, regardless of the system that he
(26:58):
that he has there on his place.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
To Clark, it was great to catch up and host yourself,
Bud and John sail Oat of the lads from me.
We'll chat again next month and hopefully Trump will have
finished the war, but I'm not holding my breath on
that one.
Speaker 6 (27:11):
Thanks Jamie, and thanks to Penny two for hosting us.
We had a great time there in Dunedins.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
Thank you, Todd. It is twenty no it's not, it's
eighteen away from one. Some of your feedback Jamie O'Connor
as a blanker putting less fert on sheep and beef
sector has economic opportunity to apply more than they could
have afforded in many years. True, not the time to
(27:38):
put on less idiot idiotic comments from the former egg spokesperson.
In the seventies and eighties, we had CNG and LNG
who cocked that up. Let me guess that one. And
here's one from yesterday's dairy and Zed vote. Thirty four
percent did not support dairyen z fed farmer's sub is
only ten percent of the costa darian zed, much better return,
(28:01):
says Jeff. There's some of your feedback. Up next, we're
going to talk fertilizer with Calvin Wickham. It's all we're
talking about at the moment the price of fuel, But
(28:22):
what about the price of fertilizer for the farmers out there.
Let's ask an expert in the field. His name is
Calvin Wickham. He's the chief executive of Balance Aggri Nutrients,
responsible are this co opers for about fifty percent of
the fertilizer business in this country. Hey, just before we
get onto that, Calvin, you're a former Fonterra executive. Are
(28:44):
you going to toss your hat into the ring to
get Miles Hurrell's job. It might be easier running a
dairy cooperative at the moment than a fertilizer business. Good afternoon,
Good afternoon, Jamie.
Speaker 7 (28:56):
Yes, I was a former Fonteria exicutive for many years
and I have to really congratulate Miles and what he
has achieved that his per you're good on. I'm ready,
it's been and I can understand why Pray wants a
bit of a breather. It's a big it's a big
beast Fonterra. It's good for New Zealand. That's gone well
over the last few years and certainly a dairy farmer's
benefited from it, and we've enjoyed that strong dairy sector
(29:18):
on the sertlizer side.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
So you're not rolling out putting your name into that.
Speaker 7 (29:22):
I think I might be a little bit past the
old along the tooth, but it's a really a broad decision.
Then they've got some strong internal candidates.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
Well, there's a younger or younger s guy by the
name of Richard Allen there, the Global ingredients guy. Is
he the anointed one?
Speaker 7 (29:36):
You'd have to get it cheat the tea for at
Fontier Jamie.
Speaker 6 (29:39):
I'm not in the know these days.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
I wonder if Fontira just so I'll get on to fertilizer.
But I've got you now at the moment, I've got
you on the rope scalve, and so I'll keep going.
I wonder if Fonterra has absolutely learned its lesson in
terms of an internal appointment versus bringing some flash Harry
in from the other side of the world that didn't
really work for them last time. When I think the
beauty of Myles Hurrell was he started at the coal face,
(30:04):
worked his way to the top job. He knew that
business inside out.
Speaker 7 (30:08):
I think here there's a fair point you make around
having that connection to New Zealand. And one of the
thing guys always enjoy about fon Terror out there in
the world pushing great New Zealand product. When you come
home you get direct, honest feedback from your shareholders and
farmers and having that connect and having to understand New
Zealand is a strong selling point. So I think certainly
value and being able to do that. And as you,
(30:29):
I think as you might have said or someone else
has said about going to be comfortable in a kitchen
table down on a farm somewhere as you are, and
sitting in a board table up in ve Switzerland talking
to the likes of Nestle. That's the kind of role
you've got to play and just be a human being
and real genuine through the whole process. And respect to Mars,
he's always been who he is. He's been very genuine
and he's obviously enabled a team to really deliver and
(30:50):
perform over the last two years.
Speaker 2 (30:51):
Let's talk fertilizer. This is a shock and awe. Really
what as a result of this Middle East conflict. Let's
split it into two, the nitrogen products and the phosphate products.
We know that the nitrogen products, because they're all based,
are totally at the mercy of an increase in fuel prices.
(31:12):
But start with phosphate. Where do we get our phosphate
rock from to produce our based super phosphate products.
Speaker 7 (31:20):
Yeah, okay, most of the phosphate rock in New Zealand
comes from the lights of Morocco or Africa, so pas
Togo you get it. For Australia South Africa. There used
to be a type because narrow now that's generally affected
by the crisis. Of course, when I say that longer
shipping lead times products avoiding the series canal it has
(31:41):
for a while I was as well. So you've got
high costs of fate and longer lead times. But generally
phosphate rock coming into New Zealand to produce super phosphate
at the plants that we have and our competitor has
is unimpacted at this time. But then your concentrated phosphates,
so the di ammonium us fate which is increasingly popular
(32:01):
by a lot of use for a lot of berry
farmers these days, and other phosphate products. There's a big
chunk that comes from the Middle East, and also China.
Middle East has closed at the moment. Of course, China's
got export bans on is they keep the product at
home to keep their farmers fertilizer prices low so they
can produce them affordable food for their people.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
So these nitrogenous fertilized as dap urea for instance, a
couple that we've mentioned, how much have they gone up
since the beginning of the war.
Speaker 7 (32:30):
Well, yeah, I mean we saw twenty five thirty percent
escalation and the price has in the first couple of weeks.
Remember they were already relatively high because they've been moving
up in anticipation of short of supply and other issues
out there, and then if they were Some speculators are
talking about doubling the price later this year, but I
think that's a speculation at the moment. It's a bit
(32:52):
of a hole padn wait and see how quickly this
situation will de escalate. The key thing for us, of course,
is we've got nightygen and supply in the country on
the water where our autumn needs. The challenge is, of
course costs. As you said, the prices are going up.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
What about phosphate Traditionally for base maintenance fertilizer, what you
used to put on two or three or four hundred bright,
I can't even remember. It's that long ago. I need
to convert that to kilograms on for your base maintenance
super phosphate on your farm. That won't have risen by
nearly as much.
Speaker 7 (33:28):
I'm assuming now that's this so because the raw rock
material hasn't gone up as much. Obviously, there's higher costs
of transport, freight, rest premiums associated our diesel costs have
gone up to move product around, so there is cost
going through, but not as much as nitrogen, and obviously
nitgen is going to be critical for spring, obviously critical
(33:50):
for productivity and growth. You can mine this so al
of it. If you cut back a little bit on
your phosphate, as you manage that your sulfur, and you
have any potassium, not so much of it concerned for supply,
but ends the big one coming up in terms of
ability to really drive production.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
So there's a wheet window there. If this thing possibly
ended in the next I don't know, let's just throw
out four to six weeks. Personally, I don't think it will,
but if it did, we might have the markets may
have recovered by spring.
Speaker 7 (34:20):
I think the challenge you're going to have is even
if it de escalates in the next month, which hopefully
it does, it's a very sad situation everyone, and if
it goes on much longer, it becomes very difficult. I
think for the wider world, you've still got the supply
will recover, but you've got to start plants back up.
In the Middle East, you've got a backlog of waters
that haven't been fulfilled. For markets like India, Pakistan and
others who are ready reliant on that Middle East supply
(34:42):
of Middle East gas as well, and you're still going
to have those higher shipping costs because of the rerouting,
higher risk premiums, et cetera. So it's hard to see
prices easy in the near term. Supply could come back
on it and be fantastic, but prices near In the
US team, I think we're kind of baked in for spring.
Then we're all waiting to see what the longer term
(35:02):
impacts are. If this goes on for much longer, I
think the world's got bigger, serious issues because fuel and
fertilizer are critical to food production, and if you have
a shortage or higher prices than your fuel and your fertilizer,
food prices are going to rise, and that's going to
hit disproportion in the some parts of the world. And
(35:23):
those are those that perhaps a bit more ability to
afford the higher fuel prices and afford the higher field
prices and pass it on will last better. But you know,
you can see some serious issues for some countries in
the world if it goes too long.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
Calvin welcome, Chief Executive of Balance an agron Nutrients, Get
it right. Thanks for your time on the country.
Speaker 7 (35:42):
Thank you Jamie.
Speaker 2 (35:49):
Okay wrapping the Country. Just a reminder, this is such
a good promotion you need to be into the boots
and all. It's the tenth edition of rabobanks Good Deeds
Competition to celebrate Rabobanks giving away one hundred grand yet
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(36:09):
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(36:31):
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Speaker 1 (36:42):
Catch you're the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Aisuzu, get demo deals
on the Tough Dmax Today
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to Isuzu, Get Demo deals
on the tough Dmax Today you.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Really got to jelly Spirit.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Don't even know where to begin.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
In Good Afternoon, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This is
the Country, brought to you by Isuzu and farm Lands
Saint Patrick's Day. We're going to play a wee bit
of Irish music. Ronan Keenan Keenan life is a life
as a roller coaster and that absolutely described the world
at the moment. On the show today, Damian O'Connor, a
(01:04):
good irishman on Saint Patrick's Day. Todd Clark a US
farming correspondent based out of Lexington, Kentucky. He spent some
time recently in New Zealand, Great Bloke and Calvin Wickham,
chief executive of Balanced Agro Nutrients, on the supply and
price issues for fertilizer as a result of this Middle
East conflict. But let's kick it off with Cameron Bagory,
(01:26):
who's waiting patiently. I can hear some gurgling in the
background on a roadside near Queenstown. Cameron, Good Afternoon, let's
have a look at this. Let's dissect this economic crisis
we're in or is that too strong a word? Economic crisis?
Good afternoon, Good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Look at I think crisis is the stages. You have
got a strong terminology, you know, each keep sort of
checking lettle in the cope. But does it good? What's
going on? The answer is not, does anybody have a
real firm stare on how this thing is going to
end up? Sure? Answerment. You know, we've seen all the
prices go up or prices come back down. They've gone
back up, back down a little bit overnight. We call
(02:06):
it jamdernomics, a whole lot of flip flops. But suffice
to say, Jamie, your oil prices or anything like gas
which is input into the food productions at a bowl yo,
prices go up. That's not good for inflation. It's not
good for central banks you control the infrastrations. It's not
good for global growth. So we sitting on each of
the moment watching a whole lot of balls in the ear.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Well, let's dissect some of these numbers, or crunch some
of these numbers. I'm going to talk exchange rate and
interest rates. I'm assuming with my economics one oh one background, Cameron,
that exchange rates ours will be going down, interst rates
going up. Is it that simple?
Speaker 3 (02:41):
Oh not quite. Look, there's a whole lot of things
that are impact in the exchange rate. What tends to
take place, particularly in New Zealand, the US dollar of
risk a version bouts bounces up. That tends to be
negative for the ENGINE dollar relative to the greenback. For
what we also saw on Friday night, Jamie, we've been
talking about this over the past that months, about the
United States inflation being a little bit sticky, and we
(03:03):
saw a little bit of a stronger inflation print. People
starting to pair back expectations of the US better reserve will
be cutting interstrates, so the yield differential changes a little bit.
That tends the US dollar positive, emty dollar negatives that
we're back down around that fifty eight cent marked. The
interesting cross though, has been the movement in the New
Zealand dollar Bossie doll and New Zealand dollars dollars down
(03:25):
sort of below eighty three cents. It was only six
months ago was up around ninety cents. RBA looks like
they're going to be hiking interstrates Later on today inspect
I followed up again with another move and may they've
got inflation problem. The RBA looks like they're going to
delivering three interstrate hikes in a row. That's not going
to be good good for growth. And Australia is going
to I just bea going to be the unlucky country
in the next sort of three years, not the lucky country.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
What about us? How many interest rate hikes as it
stands at the moment, and I know how long is
a piece of string? But there was talk of one
later in the year before this all started, But now
we're looking at a couple. When could potentially the first
one be. Could it be when the Reserve Bank next meets?
And what April?
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Is it? April will be too early, but the market
is starting to think a little bit about May. Still
low probability at the moment, about a fifteen percent maybe
twenty cent probability on May. But the million dollar question
here is what's the trajectory for inflation. Inflation has come
in a bit stronger than what the Reserve Bank has
(04:23):
been expecting. Some of that's a lot of bit of
exogenous sort of one off. But when you face an
all shop Jamie. The Reserve Bank will ignore the first
round impact of higher diesel or higher petrol prices. They're
going to be alert to what's called the second round.
In fact, Yeah, this is the flow into taxi charges,
this is the flow under of ordinary transport coots. This
(04:43):
is a flowland of food related inflation because transport costs
move up, or the impact on fertilizer prices, et cetera,
et cetera, et cetera. So central banks around the globe,
in fact, there's a lot of them that are meeting
this week, so it's going to be interesting to see
the communication or where they sort of side because you
inflation bare for growth, but inflation is inflaient at the
end of the day, they've got so oil price inflation
(05:04):
is fair for inflation, but it's bad for growth. So
what do you side with growth? Would you side with inflation?
Your central bank? So I think you only need to
decide with inflation, which is not good where interstrates could
be in the next five months.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
You were telling me as we queued up the interview
I got you online. You said people are getting carried
away with the price of petrol. It's really the price
of diesel, that is the key one. And obviously diesel
drives the economy.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
Yeah, well you know, I still an economy. You just
take the trucks off the road, because, yeah, most of
the freight ground this country gets from A to B.
And what's the key fuel. It's diesel. Now, look at
what supplies the farming sector. It's diesel. So it's interesting
to see a whole lot of the news feeds that's
coming out and you go interview someone that's filling in
their car with petrol at the local sort of pump. Well,
(05:50):
we can assume about ten million leaders a day of diesel,
about eight to nine million leaders a day of petrol.
So I guess what diesel consumption is a lot higher
than petrol can and you've put a little bit of
aviation gas on top of that. You have twenty four
million leaders of fuel we go through every day. But
we can do without our cars for a couple of ys.
(06:11):
You take some trucks off the road, you're going to
start to see some pretty quick economic collateral damage and
trucks that depended upon on diesel, not petrol.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
We've talked about some of the microeconomic effects New Zealand's economy.
Let's go macro, let's go the global economy here. Could
this be the forerunner of a change in the world order?
Is China sitting back at the moment and laughing all
the way to the bank?
Speaker 3 (06:36):
Well, what's going on at the moment has been on
the pipeline literally for a long time. We've been used
to what's called this rules based order where the world
basically played nights for a long time. Well, that rules
based order has been challenged over the past five years,
increasingly with countries exercising power. Now that's China, Taiwan to
(07:00):
Ukraine and Russia. And of course what we're seeing at
the moment, there's just another example of how crumping rules
you have Venezuela. What could go on in Cuba. It's
just a brave new world at the moment. Now, when
you're in a rules based system, you can run with
what's called a just in time model. But when you're
seeing this exercise of power, which doesn't jack you have
(07:22):
illegal backing, then you start to think about just in
case as opposed to you just in time. Guess what
just in case is not efficient? Is just in time,
but you need it for risk management, and there is
a cost to have with running a just in case
model as opposed to a scene.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
With just in time.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
So there's a whole lot of different permutations here. But
the world has been changing for years, Jamie. This is
not just crept up on this overnight.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Are we going to see tomorrow night? Is it tonight?
Speaker 3 (07:49):
No?
Speaker 2 (07:49):
It is tonight? Isn't it gdt auction? Or do you
got any inside all for us?
Speaker 3 (07:53):
There are not anything more than you haven't looked at
up and it's so busy looking at what's going on
in the United States. Will moves and keep him up
with that sort of news toide at the moment. Your
international fixtures are sort of taking my attention at the moment, Jamie,
as opposed to what happens to a GDP. I'll look
at that tomirow Up takes blows.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Hey, excuse me. Cameron Bagrie thinks is always for your time.
Safe travels from Queenstown to Dunedin. All the best joy
there we go, good block and dependent economists. Smart guy,
Cameron bagriy right, this is the country. It is Saint
Patrick's day. A bit of Irish music. We've got Aaron
(08:33):
Gardner in the studio. The tech has moved us onto
a new system called Zetta. A life is a roller
coaster and you can't fight it. You've just got to
go with the new flow. So Aaron's Aaron's chosen some
of the Irish music that he wanted, a wee bit
of Thin Lizzie, So we'll do that for you before
the end of the hour. Damian O'Connor, Labour's trade spokesperson.
(08:56):
I think he's on his motorbike. Todd Clark is in
Canucky and Calvin Wickham is the chief executive of Balance
Now fuels one thing, but from the farming point of view,
fertilized is a bit of a nightmare at the moment
as well. We're going to dissect the numbers on that
one before the end of the hour. Up next, Damian O'Connor.
(09:41):
Damian O'Connor as Labour's trade minister. He's also a good irishman.
On Saint Patrick's day, Damien, no doubt you're going to
have an argument somewhere, like a true irishman over a Guinness.
What do you got planned for the rest of the day.
Speaker 4 (09:55):
Well, let's start without the Binnis she around in the
White electorate on my bike being endured in at the
moment actually talking to a few people. But I've got
a bike green fluorro jacket which I put on the
rain so I'll wear that today. Is an acknowledgment of
Saint Patrick.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
Are you wasting your time riding your bike around the
White Tachi district? You're never going to win it in
a month of Sundays.
Speaker 4 (10:20):
Never seen that?
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Come on, why did you put your name forward?
Speaker 4 (10:25):
It's interesting it's a David Parker had won this electorate
actually going back and you know a lot of people across.
Of course it's based on rural industries, but rural communities
and they're not all sharing the same love as the
rural industries. And I think that people have to realize
that ashes to healthcare, some of the educational issues, even
some of the fibrigades you know, and lots of other
(10:47):
things that mean rural communities need to be supported by
better than this current coalition government.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Do you feel sorry for the current coalition government? They're
just starting to get there on me back on track
and then quite literally Trump Well dumps a bomb on it.
Speaker 4 (11:05):
Damien, No, I don't think they were getting it back
on track. They were trying to talk it up. There
was nothing. There were no indications that it was really
starting to move forward. We were still flatlining at best.
And yeah, this is a terrible, terrible international intervention. There
was not much sympathy from the government or from the opposition.
When we had to deal with COVID. They were demanding
(11:27):
we spend more money supporting business. They've forgotten about that now,
but we do know. Anyone in the world, of course,
has to sympathize with a ridiculous conflict that has been
created in the Middle East. It's not helping anyone.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
What's your take as an experienced former trade minister on
the implications from the Middle East conflict? Because the great unknown,
of course is how long this war or conflict is
going to last. But I know Nikola Willis did some
modeling yesterday on worst case scenario the thing going to
the end of the year. That wouldn't surprise me either,
(12:02):
because Trumps sort of running out of support.
Speaker 4 (12:05):
Well he is, and you know, to kind of challenge
Keir Sarma and saying why would you go back to
your cabinet for decisions when to put your country in
the war? Shows how ridiculous his oversight and governances of
that country. If he thinks he's a dictator and he
wants to be like Putin, then he should be exposed
to that, not pretending that you're in some democratic you know,
(12:26):
the leading democratic country in the world. I guess it's
the biggest one. It's always been proud of its democracy
and its systems of protection of through the constitution. But
it's completely out of control and the consequences each and
every one of us are bearing at the moment the
price of petrol for a start. Who knows what it
might mean for other supply chains around the world. The
(12:48):
realities of trade is that we rely on one another
for almost everything that we use in our everyday lives,
and that you know, fertilizer to produce our food. You know,
we can have food, but without fertilizer, it's really tough fuel,
all of those things, cell phone communications. We need the
supply chains to be working, you know, it's not openly,
(13:12):
certainly efficiently, and you know what we see here around
the Middle East is flowing onto each and every one
of us.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Yeah, I'm really worried about fertilizer. Going to talk about
that in a tick. What about ways to mitigate this
fuel crisis if we can call it that. You and
I Damien are of a similar generation. We're old enough
to remember Carlas Days. I was the first year commerce
student at Otago University when Carlos Days were introduced on
(13:40):
the thirtieth July nineteen seventy nine. They lasted through till
May nineteen eighty. But it was a bit of a farce,
wasn't it.
Speaker 4 (13:48):
Well, no, look, it was an effort, and it will
be the same with fertilizer. We just might have to
get used to using a little less, being a little
less dependent. And actually, if you carry that forward, if
we'd carried forward some of the lessons of the energy
crisis of the seventies and you know, turning off lights
and being more efficient with electricity and fuel, we might
have been better off now. But actually, you know, we
(14:09):
just kind of forgot about it all and charged on
into the future. You know, if we drive a little less,
you know, we can stay at home. We might have
to have more working from home. We saw that through COVID,
and now there's been a whole lot of pressure to
get people back to work. All of those lessons we
can turn into just a bit more independence, a little
less dependence on fossil fuels, and you know, maybe we'll
(14:34):
be a little more secure into the future.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
So maybe people need to follow your lead and get
on a motorbike, a trail bike. I think in your case,
on senseless crusades and an electric you can't win.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
Well, that might be your interpretation, but I'd say it's
a great way to get around then, and people do
enjoy actually talking to anyone on a motorbike, I guess.
But it enables me to get into the back country
and to places like Halden Station and other farms around
the place, just to see what's going on. Pretty green,
(15:08):
pretty good. But you know, there are some issues, bigger
issues on agriculture that, in spite of the great prices,
we have to address going forward.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
If I was being really cheeky, I could say you're
as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike, Damien.
But I would never say that because no, because I
really appreciate your contribution here on the country. On Saint
Patrick's Day, you enjoy a guinness and a good argument somewhere.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
Well, I think there's a whole lot of people appreciate
me trying to keep your hold your feet to the
fire jam and make sure that it's not all one
sided dribble. So I enjoy a good argument and let's
celebrate it on St. Patty's ay go Well, thanks right, but.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Yes, always good for a bit of band to Damien O'Connor, there, young, Young,
everything's relative young Aaron Gardner in the studio here are
tech down from Auckland because mum lives and in the cargo. Hello,
missus Gardner. You might be thing just in case your
son's on the radio. But I said to him, what
year were you born? He said, nineteen ninety one. He
won't remember Carlos Days, some of you will. After the break,
(16:10):
I'm going to give you just a wee reminder of
what Carlos Days were all about. Hopefully, if I get time,
Michelle will be in here with rural news and will
update sport for you as well. Read welcome back to
(16:33):
the country. It's twenty eight after twelve. Just on the
Carlos Days. As I said, July thirtieth, nineteen seventy nine
through to May nineteen eighty, Wednesday and Thursday we were
the most popular days of twenty seven percent choosing Wednesday
twenty four percent Thursday. This is Tuesday morning by the pogues.
By the way, each Carlos Day was twenty two hours long,
(16:55):
starting at two am and running until midnight, so people
could get home safe from the night before if you're
out on the ran Tan. Carlos Days were easily the
most unpopular of the petrol saving measures and the most abused.
There was three hundred and forty eight thousand exemption stickers issued,
which meant one and four vehicles had one, undermining the
scheme from the start. Carlos Days, as I said, were
(17:19):
finally suspended on the thirteenth of May nineteen eighty and
if you had two cars in your household, and even
back then many people did it rendered Carlos Days next
to useless. Here's Michelle was the latest and rural news.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
The contries world news with cald Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand. Visit steel for dot co
dot NZ for your local stickers.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Ask your parents about Carlos Days, Michelle. They'll remember fondly.
Speaker 5 (17:49):
Ask you it shoul, Do you remember what Carlo sticker
was on your car? For Carlos days because it was different.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
I was a scarfee and I didn't have much. I
didn't have a car. Half the time, I walked everywhere,
walked from Irana Hall to Krasbrook all the way, all
the way. There was a few far, there was a
few pubs on the way. But that's what we did
in those days. You tell the young people of today
that and they won't believe you. Away you go again.
Speaker 5 (18:11):
In real news, what is New Zealand's proposal to stop
producing frozen vegetables is expected to impact the country's already
herding vegetable growers and seed producers. The seed industry was
taking stock of what last week's announcement by one of
the country's largest food producers would mean for growers. A
well known packet of what is frozen mixed vegetables of peas,
carrots and corn, for example, perhaps no more under new proposals.
(18:34):
So face closures are being proposed at its food factories
in Auckland and Eating christ Church and it's packing facility
in Hastings. Around three hundred and fifty mostly full time
roles will be impacted, including vegetable growers and around two
hundred and twenty of them in Canterburs.
Speaker 2 (18:48):
I love my Watties frozen peas, but I like eating
them frozen rather than cooked.
Speaker 5 (18:52):
Are you one of those?
Speaker 2 (18:53):
Yes, I am one of those, mind jo. I used
to eat tucks dog biscuits when I was a kid.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
I know every country kid that's tried to do.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Yeah, but that probably explains a lot. They were good,
the tux dog biscuits.
Speaker 5 (19:04):
They're kind of.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
I don't know how to explain that they weren't too bad.
They weren't too bad, and actually weren't. We used to
The Dog's war bowl used to freeze over in the
winter in South London and we would break the ice
and suck on it. Now that was a mistake anyhow,
that probably explains a few things as well. Let's do sport.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
Sports on the country with AFCO invested in your foaming success.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
The discussions are continuing today in Melbourne on whether to
privatize Australian's cricket Big Bash League. The suggestions are that
six teams would have forty nine percent available, but two
most likely the Melbourne Renegades and Sydney Thunder, would offer
one hundred percent, and Paralympic skier Adam Hall, just from
(19:55):
the Tiree just outside of Dneed is uncertain if a
milan Quarte event has been as last a thirty eight
year old silver and the slalom standing took him to
six medals from as many games. Hall is still processing
the achievement. Well done, Adam Hall, you're a bit of
a legend. Up next on the country, we are heading
to another country, namely the United States. What is our
(20:17):
Republican voting US Farming correspondent, Todd Clark? Think of Trump?
We'll ask him next. I know you're missing home.
Speaker 6 (20:28):
It's been so long since you've been in the like
you had in Dublin now with nothing birder dream.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
He is our US farming correspondent based out of Lexington, Kentucky,
where it's fairly cold at the moment. Todd Clark, are
you officially in spring yet?
Speaker 6 (20:45):
Good afternoon, Jamie. I wish, I wish it were a
couple of weeks from now and there was enough green
grass to sustain the cattle. But yes, we've had some
warm temperatures and growing grass. But today it's it's been
blowing snow negative one celsius and I think a couple
more days of this and then we're back to warm again,
(21:08):
so but we'll have we'll have a couple more weeks
of this before we're officially into all out spring.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
Are you still getting record process for your baef in
the States.
Speaker 6 (21:19):
Yes, we are, and it's anything what we would call
grass cattle, those you know, weaned animals. Those are creeping
up even higher, if that's even possible. Calcaf pairs are
six thousand US dollars at the moment for just any
(21:39):
sort of calcalf pair. So yes, very very high prices.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
You and Lexington, Kentucky. As I said, smack will not
smack in the middle of the country, but certainly in
the Trump Belt. I know that he's very popular in
that part of the country. Can we still say that,
what does the average American say about the war in
the Middle East?
Speaker 6 (22:00):
Yeah, Trump's losing a little bit. If he had any shine,
he's certainly losing some of it. And one of the
things about his first tenure five years ago or whenever
that was, was that he he didn't get us any
in any wars. And there's a lot of dissatisfaction at
(22:22):
the moment with you know, we've gone in and invaded
one of the countries, done in South America and taking
out their their leader, and now we're over and Iran
and and so there's a lot of concern about what
he's doing, why was he doing it in Who's he
answering to, Well.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
He's answering I can answer that one for you. He's
answering to nobody. Maybe he just got carried away after
his overnight success as it were in Venezuela.
Speaker 6 (22:52):
Yeah, but that's very different from the Middle East. And
surely he knows that. But at this point I'm not
sure what he knows. But yeah. And the other thing
is that at the farm or farm gate, there was
some this will make Kiwi's cringe, but there was some
subsidy money that came from the government because of tariffs
(23:13):
and that sort of thing that just came out in
the last few weeks. Well, all of that's been given
back through high fuel cost and fertilizer costs. So nitrogen
has gone back through the roof because of the issue
in the Middle East. And so anyway, there's a lot
of frustration over a cost, especially at the farm nitrogen
(23:36):
in particular, and diesel in most of Like we talked
about before, most of the crops aren't making money. The
budgets don't look good. So we're at the beginning of
the season and here we are again. The price prices
are going through the roof, and the prices for the
commodities are not. So yeah, a little bit of dissatisfaction
(23:58):
at the moment.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
And yet you go as are self sufficient effectively in
fuel due to the fracking as I understand it.
Speaker 6 (24:06):
That's correct. Yes, so there's really not any maybe an
arrogant statement as an American, but not a lot of
concerns about will we have fuel? But it but the
price still creeps up with issues like this. So it's gained.
This is imperial gallons, but it's gained about sixty cents
(24:26):
for gasoline petrol at the tank since since I've returned
from New Zealand. And so that's concerning. Just prices continue
to remain high. If anything, get hired and everyone's ready
for him to come back down just a little bit.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
Do you wish you was still in New Zealand with
your mates Butt and John. You had a great time,
you guys, touring around the farms and provinces of New Zealand.
Speaker 6 (24:56):
Oh yes I do. Although I'm looking forward to Spring.
I love being a Kentuckian and from Lexington, But if
I had my wish, yes, I would love to be
a Kei week. But yes, we had a great trip.
We were talking about it a couple of days ago,
texting back and forth, and I don't know how we
(25:16):
could have had a better trip. It was between the
people and the sites, the food, just everything. There was
no negatives. From the top of the North Island all
the way to the bottom of the South Island.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
What did you make of Adrian Fry's dairy farm in
Southland Riversdale? And I've got a vested interest in this
one because it surrounds my duck pond. It's our old
family farm. He is a very innovative farmer. And Bud
and John you too, mates you brought over from the States,
were dairy farmers. What did they make of what he
was doing? Because he's organic, he's a two he's using
(25:51):
the whole of system.
Speaker 6 (25:53):
Yeah, we were really intrigued with him, especially you showed
us the Country Calendar episode from a couple of years
ago that to focused on his operation, and so we
had some questions from the Country Calendar show that he
was on, and and we got some of those answered,
and we were impressed with him, but he also had
(26:15):
some things that we didn't completely understand why he did
what he did. But the big takeaway was was he
shared I won't say on your show, but he shared
his profitability there on the farm and so he makes
he makes good money, has a good lifestyle, and sometimes
we lose focus of that sort of thing, and so
(26:35):
that was a big takeaway from from that visit with
him was and there was other people there too, we
kind of tagged along with a field Day, But for us,
the big takeaway was quality of life and the ability
to make a living, and so he seems to tick
both of those boxes, regardless of the system that he
(26:58):
that he has there on his place.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
To Clark, it was great to catch up and host yourself,
Bud and John sail Oat of the lads from me.
We'll chat again next month and hopefully Trump will have
finished the war, but I'm not holding my breath on
that one.
Speaker 6 (27:11):
Thanks Jamie, and thanks to Penny two for hosting us.
We had a great time there in Dunedins.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
Thank you, Todd. It is twenty no it's not, it's
eighteen away from one. Some of your feedback Jamie O'Connor
as a blanker putting less fert on sheep and beef
sector has economic opportunity to apply more than they could
have afforded in many years. True, not the time to
(27:38):
put on less idiot idiotic comments from the former egg spokesperson.
In the seventies and eighties, we had CNG and LNG
who cocked that up. Let me guess that one. And
here's one from yesterday's dairy and Zed vote. Thirty four
percent did not support dairyen z fed farmer's sub is
only ten percent of the costa darian zed, much better return,
(28:01):
says Jeff. There's some of your feedback. Up next, we're
going to talk fertilizer with Calvin Wickham. It's all we're
talking about at the moment the price of fuel, But
(28:22):
what about the price of fertilizer for the farmers out there.
Let's ask an expert in the field. His name is
Calvin Wickham. He's the chief executive of Balance Aggri Nutrients,
responsible are this co opers for about fifty percent of
the fertilizer business in this country. Hey, just before we
get onto that, Calvin, you're a former Fonterra executive. Are
(28:44):
you going to toss your hat into the ring to
get Miles Hurrell's job. It might be easier running a
dairy cooperative at the moment than a fertilizer business. Good afternoon,
Good afternoon, Jamie.
Speaker 7 (28:56):
Yes, I was a former Fonteria exicutive for many years
and I have to really congratulate Miles and what he
has achieved that his per you're good on. I'm ready,
it's been and I can understand why Pray wants a
bit of a breather. It's a big it's a big
beast Fonterra. It's good for New Zealand. That's gone well
over the last few years and certainly a dairy farmer's
benefited from it, and we've enjoyed that strong dairy sector
(29:18):
on the sertlizer side.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
So you're not rolling out putting your name into that.
Speaker 7 (29:22):
I think I might be a little bit past the
old along the tooth, but it's a really a broad decision.
Then they've got some strong internal candidates.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
Well, there's a younger or younger s guy by the
name of Richard Allen there, the Global ingredients guy. Is
he the anointed one?
Speaker 7 (29:36):
You'd have to get it cheat the tea for at
Fontier Jamie.
Speaker 6 (29:39):
I'm not in the know these days.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
I wonder if Fontira just so I'll get on to fertilizer.
But I've got you now at the moment, I've got
you on the rope scalve, and so I'll keep going.
I wonder if Fonterra has absolutely learned its lesson in
terms of an internal appointment versus bringing some flash Harry
in from the other side of the world that didn't
really work for them last time. When I think the
beauty of Myles Hurrell was he started at the coal face,
(30:04):
worked his way to the top job. He knew that
business inside out.
Speaker 7 (30:08):
I think here there's a fair point you make around
having that connection to New Zealand. And one of the
thing guys always enjoy about fon Terror out there in
the world pushing great New Zealand product. When you come
home you get direct, honest feedback from your shareholders and
farmers and having that connect and having to understand New
Zealand is a strong selling point. So I think certainly
value and being able to do that. And as you,
(30:29):
I think as you might have said or someone else
has said about going to be comfortable in a kitchen
table down on a farm somewhere as you are, and
sitting in a board table up in ve Switzerland talking
to the likes of Nestle. That's the kind of role
you've got to play and just be a human being
and real genuine through the whole process. And respect to Mars,
he's always been who he is. He's been very genuine
and he's obviously enabled a team to really deliver and
(30:50):
perform over the last two years.
Speaker 2 (30:51):
Let's talk fertilizer. This is a shock and awe. Really
what as a result of this Middle East conflict. Let's
split it into two, the nitrogen products and the phosphate products.
We know that the nitrogen products, because they're all based,
are totally at the mercy of an increase in fuel prices.
(31:12):
But start with phosphate. Where do we get our phosphate
rock from to produce our based super phosphate products.
Speaker 7 (31:20):
Yeah, okay, most of the phosphate rock in New Zealand
comes from the lights of Morocco or Africa, so pas
Togo you get it. For Australia South Africa. There used
to be a type because narrow now that's generally affected
by the crisis. Of course, when I say that longer
shipping lead times products avoiding the series canal it has
(31:41):
for a while I was as well. So you've got
high costs of fate and longer lead times. But generally
phosphate rock coming into New Zealand to produce super phosphate
at the plants that we have and our competitor has
is unimpacted at this time. But then your concentrated phosphates,
so the di ammonium us fate which is increasingly popular
(32:01):
by a lot of use for a lot of berry
farmers these days, and other phosphate products. There's a big
chunk that comes from the Middle East, and also China.
Middle East has closed at the moment. Of course, China's
got export bans on is they keep the product at
home to keep their farmers fertilizer prices low so they
can produce them affordable food for their people.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
So these nitrogenous fertilized as dap urea for instance, a
couple that we've mentioned, how much have they gone up
since the beginning of the war.
Speaker 7 (32:30):
Well, yeah, I mean we saw twenty five thirty percent
escalation and the price has in the first couple of weeks.
Remember they were already relatively high because they've been moving
up in anticipation of short of supply and other issues
out there, and then if they were Some speculators are
talking about doubling the price later this year, but I
think that's a speculation at the moment. It's a bit
(32:52):
of a hole padn wait and see how quickly this
situation will de escalate. The key thing for us, of course,
is we've got nightygen and supply in the country on
the water where our autumn needs. The challenge is, of
course costs. As you said, the prices are going up.
Speaker 2 (33:10):
What about phosphate Traditionally for base maintenance fertilizer, what you
used to put on two or three or four hundred bright,
I can't even remember. It's that long ago. I need
to convert that to kilograms on for your base maintenance
super phosphate on your farm. That won't have risen by
nearly as much.
Speaker 7 (33:28):
I'm assuming now that's this so because the raw rock
material hasn't gone up as much. Obviously, there's higher costs
of transport, freight, rest premiums associated our diesel costs have
gone up to move product around, so there is cost
going through, but not as much as nitrogen, and obviously
nitgen is going to be critical for spring, obviously critical
(33:50):
for productivity and growth. You can mine this so al
of it. If you cut back a little bit on
your phosphate, as you manage that your sulfur, and you
have any potassium, not so much of it concerned for supply,
but ends the big one coming up in terms of
ability to really drive production.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
So there's a wheet window there. If this thing possibly
ended in the next I don't know, let's just throw
out four to six weeks. Personally, I don't think it will,
but if it did, we might have the markets may
have recovered by spring.
Speaker 7 (34:20):
I think the challenge you're going to have is even
if it de escalates in the next month, which hopefully
it does, it's a very sad situation everyone, and if
it goes on much longer, it becomes very difficult. I
think for the wider world, you've still got the supply
will recover, but you've got to start plants back up.
In the Middle East, you've got a backlog of waters
that haven't been fulfilled. For markets like India, Pakistan and
others who are ready reliant on that Middle East supply
(34:42):
of Middle East gas as well, and you're still going
to have those higher shipping costs because of the rerouting,
higher risk premiums, et cetera. So it's hard to see
prices easy in the near term. Supply could come back
on it and be fantastic, but prices near In the
US team, I think we're kind of baked in for spring.
Then we're all waiting to see what the longer term
(35:02):
impacts are. If this goes on for much longer, I
think the world's got bigger, serious issues because fuel and
fertilizer are critical to food production, and if you have
a shortage or higher prices than your fuel and your fertilizer,
food prices are going to rise, and that's going to
hit disproportion in the some parts of the world. And
(35:23):
those are those that perhaps a bit more ability to
afford the higher fuel prices and afford the higher field
prices and pass it on will last better. But you know,
you can see some serious issues for some countries in
the world if it goes too long.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
Calvin welcome, Chief Executive of Balance an agron Nutrients, Get
it right. Thanks for your time on the country.
Speaker 7 (35:42):
Thank you Jamie.
Speaker 2 (35:49):
Okay wrapping the Country. Just a reminder, this is such
a good promotion you need to be into the boots
and all. It's the tenth edition of rabobanks Good Deeds
Competition to celebrate Rabobanks giving away one hundred grand yet
ten prizes of ten thousand dollars each to upgrade ten
(36:09):
rural community hubs across New Zealand, ten grand for ten
projects and if that's not enough, one lucky prize winner.
We're also receive a day's free labor from the teams
at Rabobank in the Country. The easiest way to enter
is just text us on five double O nine and
write the word good and we'll send you the link
(36:31):
to enter Rabobanks Good Deeds Promotion Competition celebrating ten years,
ten grand times ten to give away.
Speaker 1 (36:42):
Catch you're the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Aisuzu, get demo deals
on the Tough Dmax Today
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