The Country 26/03/26: Chris Brandolino talks to Jamie Mackay

Earth Sciences NZ Principal Scientist - Forecasting and Media, on the weather bomb.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Weather on the country with Fiji where happiness comes naturally, well,
Fiji might be the place to be a Chris Brandolino
from Earth Science as New Zealand mindjee, this tropical storm
has come from up that way. How bad is it?
Update me?

Speaker 2 (00:16):
It's raining hard. It's been raining hard for a while
across the upper North Island. In fact, there are multiple
locations that are either approaching or have exceeded two hundred
millimeters of rain over the past say thirty six hours
or so across Northland, and a lot of areas in
Northland just by way of example, generally get one hundred,

(00:37):
one hundred and twenty millimeters of rain in the entire
month of March. So locations have exceeded and are nearly
doubling what they would normally get in thirty one days.
But they're getting it in a day or two and
that is the problem. So there is that red warning
issued by met Service for parts of Northland, other warnings
for rain and wind for other parts of the country,

(00:58):
including the top of the South Island. We can't overlook
and sleep on areas in Northwest the northwest corner of
the South Island of the Tasman Region Nelson some heavy rain,
and there'll be some heavy rain that occurs over the
more traditional areas of the South Island Jamis, such as
the Southern Alps. But it's really a Bay of Plenty, Corimandel,
Eastern Northland, maybe parts of the Auckland region that we

(01:20):
have to watch out for things like landslips and flooding.
And then I can't sleep on the northwest corner of
the South Island because that area will receive a good
drop of rain. The Southern Alps Sami, Yeah, good drop
of rain going there, but that's a bit more what
is what they're used to, you know, they get a
lot of rain, so that's closer to the normal side
of the spectrum.

Speaker 1 (01:40):
Well, Northland's obviously been heads first as it heads south.
When does Northland start to get some respont.

Speaker 2 (01:48):
Probably tonight and especially tomorrow. I think we'll see some
improvement there. There will be improvement too for the Auckland region.
I think tomorrow they're probably the worst rain is likely
to fall tomorrow over say the Bay of Plenty and
the core Mantel Peninsula, even tadaf At Gisbin. But I
think it's the Cormandle and the Bay of plenty where
the greatest chances for heavy rain will be for tomorrow.

(02:10):
We do have to watch for some localized thunderstorms and
downpours tomorrow over the I guess, western Waikato and even
portions of the Auckland region. There could be a bit
of sun, a bit of juice in the atmosphere because
of this tropical flow we're getting, and that could ignite
the some localized showers and thunderstorms for the west of
the South Isle Tomorrow that's when the rain really kicks in.
So for those in western Southland, Fjordland, host, Hokitika and Graymouth,

(02:35):
there'll be your rain comes tomorrow. And look, this is
part of this boom or bust rainfall Jamie, and we've
been talking about this right now where we've gone through
a bust, so very little rain has been dry for
a while across the country. Now we're getting into this
boom period and then we're gonna see high pressure. So
after Monday, another round of rain for the Upper North

(02:55):
Island on Monday, which could be heavy locally, But after
that we're gonna settle into a pretty stable and settle
pattern with high pressure and that'll keep things pretty palatable
for a while. I know we could use the rain
in the south file and that's one area you'll have
to watch with Tago's dry. Unfortunately, after the next five
days is probably not gonna be much Jamie. And then

(03:16):
after this quiet period, say toward the start of week
two of April, going out there a little bit, so
about two weeks or so from now, the tropics make
it quite active again and we'll have to watch and
see if something comes our way toward the ninth to tenth,
the eleventh, twelfth of April, something to bookmark. We'll see
if that happens, but it's part of this boom or
bust rainfall and we're gonna have to watch it. I

(03:37):
think the winter, some areas could be looking at dryness
as you move the rest of autumn into winter, and
that's not good because winter, as we know, is time
for the ground water recharge. You need to recharge the
ground with water to set us up for the next
growing season. And if that doesn't happen, we're on our
back foot. And that's something we're watching because of an
emerging El Nino that's likely to take shape as you're

(03:58):
working to lay autumn and especially winter.

Speaker 1 (04:00):
Yeah okay, Chris Brandolino, thanks for the time. The iron
that your time, should I say the irony is some
of the areas that are getting plenty of on needed
a bit but just not that.

Speaker 2 (04:08):
Much, eh exactly? Yeah right, good on you.

Speaker 1 (04:11):
Thanks for your time. On a Thursday,